Author Topic: Stocks  (Read 139484 times)

Online yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #60 on: August 29, 2013, 12:35:42 PM »
Who here has apple? i bought at 397.....!

I bought at 425. Didn't see it when it when it dipped to 390 :(
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Offline Shreknit

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #61 on: August 29, 2013, 01:39:49 PM »
Wow! and sold at??

240 then rebought in the late 3s

Online yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #62 on: August 29, 2013, 02:19:10 PM »
That's right, that's why in a way I consider trading some sort of gambling. Why short term? They've done quite bad the pass 2+ years, they had some hopes when they were launching the Z10 and have fallen back since then,
I would be quite worried if I would've own any of their shares.

If the stock market is just gambling, that would make warren buffett, the worlds greatest, winningest gambler. True, if you buy a company without looking at the books you are a gambler. But not everyone does that, some people actually look at a company's financials and see the value of the assets and the price they're selling at, and sometimes you find killer deals in bad companies. Blackberry isn't a killer deal per se, but I'm betting that in 6-12 months the stock will be 20-30% higher.

I may point out that I don't care much about short term. As one great man put it "In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term a weighing machine."
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Offline Menachem613

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #63 on: August 29, 2013, 02:24:34 PM »

If the stock market is just gambling, that would make warren buffett, the worlds greatest, winningest gambler. True, if you buy a company without looking at the books you are a gambler. But not everyone does that, some people actually look at a company's financials and see the value of the assets and the price they're selling at, and sometimes you find killer deals in bad companies. Blackberry isn't a killer deal per se, but I'm betting that in 6-12 months the stock will be 20-30% higher.

I may point out that I don't care much about short term. As one great man put it "In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term a weighing machine."

If it's not gambling, how come so few professionals are capable of beating the market over the long term?  Remember Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust?

Offline Centro

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #64 on: August 29, 2013, 02:37:43 PM »
If the stock market is just gambling, that would make warren buffett, the worlds greatest, winningest gambler. True, if you buy a company without looking at the books you are a gambler. But not everyone does that, some people actually look at a company's financials and see the value of the assets and the price they're selling at, and sometimes you find killer deals in bad companies. Blackberry isn't a killer deal per se, but I'm betting that in 6-12 months the stock will be 20-30% higher.

I may point out that I don't care much about short term. As one great man put it "In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term a weighing machine."
I knew someone will comment about it, I didn't mean that it's actually like gambling where there's no reason why you would rather win then loose,
but still when you trade you goto hope that you have all the info needed and there's no secrets which if you would've known that you wouldn't buy that stock.

If you're a very smart person (i.e. Warren buffet ) and understand the market close to 100% ( i.e. Warren buffet ) then you have more chances to earn then to loose, but there are always some buys on which you loose cause you didn't know ( and you couldn't have know ) the inside info which at this point it has some similarity to gambling, whatever...
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #65 on: August 29, 2013, 02:39:21 PM »
well they are coming out with a new line next month....

They are? FWIU they are just reiterating existing product lines. Please CMIIW.
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Offline Menachem613

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #66 on: August 29, 2013, 02:45:22 PM »
Warren Buffet's winning streak isn't due to gambling or understanding companies better than others. It's mainly because he has so much cash and great negotiations skills. He can get deals that others cannot. Look no further than his $5b deal with BAC.

Offline ayman

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #67 on: August 29, 2013, 02:47:30 PM »
had to start somewhere right? he wasn't born the best negotiator ever! ::)

Online yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #68 on: August 29, 2013, 02:54:32 PM »
If it's not gambling, how come so few professionals are capable of beating the market over the long term?  Remember Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust?

I and others here beat the market long term. Does that make us from the most elite investors? Hardly.

Mutual funds managers (among others) have bad track record because of many issues. When they're buying millions of shares, they incur high trading costs. They also manage to raise the cost price for themselves as their large purchases affect the market price. Since they can't buy all their shares in one purchase, by the time they're done the stock could have gone up a lot.

Open market funds, which the typical fund is, has additional problems. Any person investing in the fund can pull their money out any day. Investors are also always adding. Now the fund manager has to raise cash for investors withdrawals, so he sells stocks. More trading costs. The investors buying in can bring in large amounts of money. Now the funds profitability gets weighed down whenever they're holding cash. So they buy all the best stocks they can find. But after a short while, those are either too expensive or their position in those stocks are too large. Now the fund manager has to find any stocks that can make money, even if the stock isn't as likely to rise as high as the original purchases.

It makes a lot of sense why most managers can't beat the market. And it makes a lot of sense for the passive investor to just buy the entire S&P. But for the rest of us, with gods help we have consistently beat the market. It is outright naive to think that investing in a valuable business at a cheap price is gambling.
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Online yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #69 on: August 29, 2013, 03:05:18 PM »
I knew someone will comment about it, I didn't mean that it's actually like gambling where there's no reason why you would rather win then loose,
but still when you trade you goto hope that you have all the info needed and there's no secrets which if you would've known that you wouldn't buy that stock.

If you're a very smart person (i.e. Warren buffet ) and understand the market close to 100% ( i.e. Warren buffet ) then you have more chances to earn then to loose, but there are always some buys on which you loose cause you didn't know ( and you couldn't have know ) the inside info which at this point it has some similarity to gambling, whatever...

There's no such thing as 100% or even close to 100% knowledge of the market. Buffett will say that himself. He wouldn't invest in many sectors, simply because he didn't understand it well enough.

Now I'd like to ask you: Do you only invest in businesses that you have 100% knowledge in? If you open a profitable business with a partner, are you 100% sure he won't backstab you? Are you 100% sure that the someone else can't copy you and steal all your business? Nothing is guaranteed, but if you find enough great opportunities, you will come out far ahead even if some opportunities fail. You do your hishtadlus from before to minimize risk and maximize profitability and you pray to God on Rosh Hashana that you should be blessed with a good parnassah.
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Online 12HRS

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #70 on: August 29, 2013, 03:07:43 PM »
and you pray to God every day that you should be blessed with a good parnassah.

Fixed

Offline ayman

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #71 on: August 29, 2013, 03:09:23 PM »
lol +1

Online yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #72 on: August 29, 2013, 03:15:30 PM »
Fixed

IMHO, we get judged that we will receive X amount of dollars this year. Daily prayers only change how efficiently those dollars will be used.
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Online 12HRS

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #73 on: August 29, 2013, 03:29:33 PM »
IMHO, we get judged that we will receive X amount of dollars this year. Daily prayers only change how efficiently those dollars will be used.

I always thought "even if a sword rests on your neck" applied any time of the year. CMIIW but wouldn't it be the same for finances? My understanding of the Yomim Noraim has always been more of an "opportune time" to plead for the future, but prayer could accomplish the same thing any time.

Online yuneeq

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Re: Stocks
« Reply #74 on: August 29, 2013, 04:17:03 PM »
I always thought "even if a sword rests on your neck" applied any time of the year. CMIIW but wouldn't it be the same for finances? My understanding of the Yomim Noraim has always been more of an "opportune time" to plead for the future, but prayer could accomplish the same thing any time.

I understand that finances are the same as rain. In Rosh Hashana (16b I think) says its decided how much rain we will get, on rosh hashana, even though the rain can still be for ur bad. If we were judged for a lot of rain and we go off, God still gives that rain, but either at a bad time or bad amounts, like typhoons, floods, and etc. The reverse is true too, if are judged to deserve small amounts of rain, if we do teshuva the small amount suffices, as God makes it rain in the perfect times and the perfect amounts.

Life can not be quantitative. One is either dead or alive. Therefore I believe the teshuva will have to be so extreme in order to rip up the gezeira, Purim style.

« Last Edit: August 29, 2013, 04:23:35 PM by yuneeq »
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