I under the odds. Odds are great when there are not variables. Probably 90%+ of the time the batter does not care about the shift. In the WS it is a whole another story. The odds don't factor in that variable which is the most important.
Again, I didn't see this play but the logic is entirely from the perspective of the infield and what happens with each of the batters choices. IOW the fielding team doesn't make decisions based on what they think the batter will do, but on the overall odds of the outcome of the batter choice - if that makes sense? i.e. I know he can bunt, but the worst outcomes of a bunt single/sacrifice bunt is far better than the best outcomes of a hit through the infield or to shallow right.
This is the crazy part. They pitched him outside the whole time at bat. The pitch he punched to the right side was low and away. Does not get any easier than that.
That's just poor execution.