NJ State Politics Master Thread

[yuneeq]

Some context:
https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/status/1455964360887635974

Just sharing some data, so when the Lakewood numbers come in, people should have a point of reference:
...
In 2009, when Christie defeated Corzine, 19,171 ballots were cast, 50.55 percent of registered voters (37,925).

In 2020, when the election was all mail-in-ballots and Trump was on the ballot, 37,677 ballots were cast in Lakewood, representing 70.86 percent of registered voters.

Actual turn out was practically the same as 12 years ago when there were 20k fewer registered voters. And turnout % was higher in 2013, despite the lower urgency to vote.

[yuneeq]

by a truck driver who spent $152 on his campaign.

Side note - he didn't spend $153 on his campaign, it was far more than that. He had videos and ads - even the cheapest video and ad campaign does not cost anywhere close to $153. Most likely he meant that he spent $153 of his own money (and the rest was raised.) Though it definitely sounds cooler to say it only cost him 153 bucks.

[YitzyS]

He can't run again anyways so he will try to stuff his agenda down everyones throat without a care about his popularity.

Politicians always care about their popularity. There will be favorability polls, and he wants to be liked.

[YitzyS]

On a different scale, I feel tonight like I felt after the US Senate went Democrat from the Georgia runoff last year, and I'll explain why.

When Biden won last year, we Republicans thought, "Well, at least the Senate is Republican, and it will check his power to pass whatever radical agenda he wants." But when Wernock and Ossoff won and gave the Democrats control of both branches of the legislature, it was almost worse than the initial  election, as it gave Biden free reign to do whatever he wanted.

We are in a similar position now in New Jersey, though most laymen, who don't know the backstories of NJ politics, probably don't know. Governor Murphy's biggest check was Senate President Steve Sweeney. Sweeney, even though he is a Democrat, had tremendous aspirations to be governor in 2024 and refused to let Murphy roll out his agenda, and he never brought many of Murphy's plans up for a vote. It was only after tremendous negotiations that Murphy managed to get his Millionaire's Tax passed, which was his campaign promise, and he had to pull so many teeth to get it. In the next four years, when Murphy is not retrained by a future election, it was only Steve Sweeney who would've held him back from achieving success in all his agenda items. But alas, in the craziest upset of the night, it seems like Sweeney will not be a Senator next year, having been beat out by a truck driver who spent $152 on his campaign.

 

Condensed version: NJ is in way worse shape now than most people realize, because Sweeney, who would've held back most of Murphy's progressive agenda, seems to have been voted out of office.

[savvydigz]

Side note - he didn't spend $153 on his campaign, it was far more than that. He had videos and ads - even the cheapest video and ad campaign does not cost anywhere close to $153. Most likely he meant that he spent $153 of his own money (and the rest was raised.) Though it definitely sounds cooler to say it only cost him 153 bucks.

His videos are not professional likely taken from an iPhone camera and edited at his kitchen table.

[Shmulie]

Side note - he didn't spend $153 on his campaign, it was far more than that. He had videos and ads - even the cheapest video and ad campaign does not cost anywhere close to $153. Most likely he meant that he spent $153 of his own money (and the rest was raised.) Though it definitely sounds cooler to say it only cost him 153 bucks.

I think I read he only spent $153 on his primary campaign

[YitzyS]

Just did some more analyzing, using numbers I just downloaded from the Clerk's website.

Since election night, 881 votes were added in Lakewood, presumably reflecting newly received mail-in-ballots. This brings the turnout percentage in Lakewood up to 35.06 percent.

Ciatterelli now has 12,036 votes, just over 61 percent. Murphy now has 7,560 votes, roughly 38.3 percent. 133 voters voted for someone else, equal to just under seven-tenths of a percent.

In trying to figure out the VAAD's influence on the election, we have to filter out the votes that would've gone Democrat anyways. To determine that, I subtracted the number of votes other non-endorsed Democrats got from Murphy's total.
The highest non-endorsed Democrat vote-getter, Singer's senate opponent Dan Stinger, got 3,080 votes. The lowest non-endorsed Democrat vote-getter, County Commissioner candidate Philip Nufrio, got 2,862.
7,560-3,080=4,480
7,560-2,862=4,698

Thus, the VAAD can be credited with getting Murphy between 4,480 and 4,698.

It is also likely that the VAAD's endorsement led to suppression of Republican votes, as many stayed home because they didn't want to vote for Murphy but they also didn't want to disregard the VAAD's endorsement, so the aforementioned number does not represent the total assistance of the VAAD to Murphy's reelection, just the actual vote addition.

[zh cohen]

I think I read he only spent $153 on his primary campaign

Right. On the general he went all out and spent... $5,000! But the $153 sounds better.

[pbf]

It is also likely that the VAAD's endorsement led to suppression of Republican votes, as many stayed home because they didn't want to vote for Murphy but they also didn't want to disregard the VAAD's endorsement, so the aforementioned number does not represent the total assistance of the VAAD to Murphy's reelection, just the actual vote addition.

This.

I personally know people that did not vote, or didn't vote for governor for this very reason.

[CountValentine]

Just did some more analyzing, using numbers I just downloaded from the Clerk's website.

Since election night, 881 votes were added in Lakewood, presumably reflecting newly received mail-in-ballots. This brings the turnout percentage in Lakewood up to 35.06 percent.

Ciatterelli now has 12,036 votes, just over 61 percent. Murphy now has 7,560 votes, roughly 38.3 percent. 133 voters voted for someone else, equal to just under seven-tenths of a percent.

In trying to figure out the VAAD's influence on the election, we have to filter out the votes that would've gone Democrat anyways. To determine that, I subtracted the number of votes other non-endorsed Democrats got from Murphy's total.
The highest non-endorsed Democrat vote-getter, Singer's senate opponent Dan Stinger, got 3,080 votes. The lowest non-endorsed Democrat vote-getter, County Commissioner candidate Philip Nufrio, got 2,862.
7,560-3,080=4,480
7,560-2,862=4,698

Thus, the VAAD can be credited with getting Murphy between 4,480 and 4,698.

It is also likely that the VAAD's endorsement led to suppression of Republican votes, as many stayed home because they didn't want to vote for Murphy but they also didn't want to disregard the VAAD's endorsement, so the aforementioned number does not represent the total assistance of the VAAD to Murphy's reelection, just the actual vote addition.

WOW you are really into this.
So it didn't change anything (winner) as some have thought?

[YitzyS]

This.

I personally know people that did not vote, or didn't vote for governor for this very reason.

429 ballots cast in Lakewood did not have a candidate chosen for governor, and 133 had a third-party or write in candidate chosen.

In all, 562 ballots didn't choose a major-party candidate, equaling 2.8 percent of the total turnout.

[YitzyS]

WOW you are really into this.
So it didn't change anything (winner) as some have thought?

You do have an unknown number of votes suppressed, as well as the swing (it is safe to say that in Republican heavy Lakewood, most of the VAAD-following Murphy voters would've voted for Ciatterelli without the endorsement, meaning that the VAAD may have given Murphy a voter swing of up to 9,396 votes).

But still, my projection stands:

My projection: When the final numbers are in, Murphy will have won by a margin LARGER than the Vaad controls. Let all the Jewish media outlets pump out articles now about how the Vaad handed Murphy the election, but I really think the numbers are going to swell to more than a 30,000 vote margin, maybe even double that.

[aygart]

On a different scale, I feel tonight like I felt after the US Senate went Democrat from the Georgia runoff last year, and I'll explain why.

When Biden won last year, we Republicans thought, "Well, at least the Senate is Republican, and it will check his power to pass whatever radical agenda he wants." But when Wernock and Ossoff won and gave the Democrats control of both branches of the legislature, it was almost worse than the initial  election, as it gave Biden free reign to do whatever he wanted.

We are in a similar position now in New Jersey, though most laymen, who don't know the backstories of NJ politics, probably don't know. Governor Murphy's biggest check was Senate President Steve Sweeney. Sweeney, even though he is a Democrat, had tremendous aspirations to be governor in 2024 and refused to let Murphy roll out his agenda, and he never brought many of Murphy's plans up for a vote. It was only after tremendous negotiations that Murphy managed to get his Millionaire's Tax passed, which was his campaign promise, and he had to pull so many teeth to get it. In the next four years, when Murphy is not retrained by a future election, it was only Steve Sweeney who would've held him back from achieving success in all his agenda items. But alas, in the craziest upset of the night, it seems like Sweeney will not be a Senator next year, having been beat out by a truck driver who spent $152 on his campaign.

 

https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2021/11/2021-governor-race-nj-murphy-winner-victor-ciattarelli-loser-tight-race-low-margin/
Close contest puts Murphy agenda in jeopardyLilo H. Stainton, Colleen O'Dea | November 4, 2021 | NJ Decides 2021, PoliticsMurphy’s slim margin over Ciattarelli likely means his programs won't get full support

[YitzyS]

https://www.nj.com/opinion/2021/11/pollster-i-blew-it-maybe-its-time-to-get-rid-of-election-polls-opinion.html

[YitzyS]

https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2021/11/election-update-and-analysis.html#more

"The Lakewood Vaad in its current form is done. They know it themselves and have pledged to change years ago but nothing happened. While they control a bloc of 3-4k votes the election results showed that most people do what they feel is best for them. They have lost all credibility and trust and the political endorsements fosters resentment with our neighbors and within the community. A growing town with hundreds of rabbonim who lead their communities can't continue to be told what to do by a small group of unknown balei batim."

[CountValentine]

https://www.nj.com/opinion/2021/11/pollster-i-blew-it-maybe-its-time-to-get-rid-of-election-polls-opinion.html

Stop apologizing and spin it the right way. It does not matter if you win by 1 vote or 1mm votes. You got the winner correct again and that is all that matters.

I should mention I offered to take bets (I had Murphy) but non one spoke up.

[YitzyS]

Stop apologizing and spin it the right way. It does not matter if you win by 1 vote or 1mm votes. You got the winner correct again and that is all that matters.

A slam dunk poll serve to suppress voters and contributions

[CountValentine]

A slam dunk poll serve to suppress voters and contributions

The loser always claims that but it works both ways. In this case it probably hurt Murphy more since there are more D's in the state.

[YitzyS]

The loser always claims that but it works both ways. In this case it probably hurt Murphy more since there are more D's in the state.

100 percent agree to your first sentence, but I think the second sentence is debatable. I spoke to two pundits and both had reasons to support both ways, so neither is sure what impact it actually had.

[CountValentine]

100 percent agree to your first sentence, but I think the second sentence is debatable. I spoke to two pundits and both had reasons to support both ways, so neither is sure what impact it actually had.

Here is the way I look at it. Someone with the mindset of not voting because the poll says it is a slam dunk is not going to vote if his candidate is the winner or loser. So which ever party has the most registered voters it will affect the most.
That is my logic.