Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?

[Kobe Bryant]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.9% in February compared to last year, marking the fastest annual jump since 1982.

[Yehudaa]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.9% in February compared to last year, marking the fastest annual jump since 1982.

And that's probably without much effect from the Russia-Ukraine war. The March numbers aint gonna be pretty.

[CountValentine]

And that's probably without much effect from the Russia-Ukraine war. The March numbers aint gonna be pretty.

Last 3 months we are at 8.4 and expect that to go higher.

[AsherO]

Last 3 months we are at 8.4 and expect that to go higher.

WDYM?

7.9% YoY (i/o/w compared to 12m prior) and 8.4% compared to 3m prior?

[CountValentine]

7.9% YoY (i/o/w compared to 12m prior) and 8.4% compared to 3m prior?

The way I understood it. Seems it would be a lot higher.

[AsherO]

The way I understood it. Seems it would be a lot higher.

FWIU 7.9% is kinda like a running 12-month increase, it's not like you can combine/compound such figures from six consecutive months and conclude that CPI is up 70% compounded for six months.

[CountValentine]

FWIU 7.9% is kinda like a running 12-month increase, it's not like you can combine/compound such figures from six consecutive months and conclude that CPI is up 70% compounded for six months.

So how much did it actually go up last month?
ETA: Looks like .8?

[AsherO]

So how much did it actually go up last month?
ETA: Looks like .8?

It makes sense to measure YoY since some factors are seasonal so MoM isn’t so accurate.

[CountValentine]

It makes sense to measure YoY since some factors are seasonal so MoM isn’t so accurate.

I understand that but when inflation is on the up it is lagging indicator. I am not sure but aren't the figures seasonally adjusted?

[AsherO]

I understand that but when inflation is on the up it is lagging indicator. I am not sure but aren't the figures seasonally adjusted?

No. You don’t have to adjust seasonally when you’re comparing YoY.

The 7.9% February 2022 figure is on the top chart of this BLS webpage, and the chart title states it is not seasonally adjusted.

[CountValentine]

No. You don’t have to adjust seasonally when you’re comparing YoY.

The 7.9% February 2022 figure is on the top chart of this BLS webpage, and the chart title states it is not seasonally adjusted.

This is where the confusion is. I don't want YOY. I want the rate for Feb and .8 is seasonally adjusted.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – FEBRUARY 2022

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent
in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in January,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 7.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

[Ver hut gazugt]

The good news is graphics cards are back in stock ( so maybe the chip shortage is calming down a little) so prices should come down over time. Backlog in la port has improved somewhat. I would say things should cool down a little over the next 6 months. Wheat, oil and metals is whole different story so maybe no so much after all.

[yuneeq]

FWIU 7.9% is kinda like a running 12-month increase, it's not like you can combine/compound such figures from six consecutive months and conclude that CPI is up 70% compounded for six months.

This is false. The MoM numbers are seasonally adjusted so you can easily add the months up and prorate it to 12 months.And you’re compounding the MoM numbers such as .8%, not the YoY for each month. We can also say that if we continue with the current pace of inflation for the past month, we would be at 9.6% for the next year.

This is where the confusion is. I don't want YOY. I want the rate for Feb and .8 is seasonally adjusted.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – FEBRUARY 2022

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent
in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in January,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 7.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The MoM numbers are seasonally adjusted, the YoY numbers are not.
To me- providing the numbers in this format makes the most sense.

[Kobe Bryant]

[CountValentine]

The MoM numbers are seasonally adjusted, the YoY numbers are not.
To me- providing the numbers in this format makes the most sense.

One does not make more sense over the other. Just understand the difference.
YoY are not seasonally adjusted because there is no season. 

[yuneeq]

One does not make more sense over the other. Just understand the difference.
YoY are not seasonally adjusted because there is no season. 

I'm not saying one makes more sense than the other, I'm agreeing with you, that there should be no seasonal adjustment for YoY

[yuneeq]

REPOST!

[CountValentine]

Here comes the "R" word.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/goldman-sachs-warns-russia-s-war-on-ukraine-could-plunge-u-s-and-europe-into-recession/ar-AAUVzsr?ocid=msedgntp

[yuneeq]

Here comes the "R" word.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/goldman-sachs-warns-russia-s-war-on-ukraine-could-plunge-u-s-and-europe-into-recession/ar-AAUVzsr?ocid=msedgntp

Still better than the “D” word, as usual

[CountValentine]

Still better than the “D” word, as usual

Wrong thread!