A few general comments:
1) the second wave appears to be starting, and once again the frum community is at the forefront. This was avoidable. Members here and people IRL are calling for small measures now to help stop the spread, but those measures are now too little and too late. More drastic measures are needed and will eventually be taken.
2) with regards to reinfection, there are 2 absolute opinions being bandied about, and they both need to be discarded. The fact of the matter is, we don't know enough about reinfection to say with any certainty whether or not it will happen to everyone. What we do know is that it has happened in a few instances, and as time goes on, we will find out if those cases are the exception or the rule. 3-6 months of immunity is widely accepted medical opinion now. Indefinite immunity is seen as highly unlikely. The question is at what point between 6 months and forever does immunity run out. The only way we'll find out is when a large number of people who were previously infected are exposed to the virus a second time on a large scale. To date, this has not happened anywhere in the world. It is about to happen in the frum communities of the Tri-state area. Until we know for sure, people should not assume immunity that may not exist, and take some precautions to avoid a possible reinfection. The consequences of ignoring that risk have proven to be high.
3) with regards to the rumors of doctors and rabbonim advising people not to test and/or report cases... Leaving aside the danger to the community as it relates to spreading the virus or delaying medical care, this approach is extremely short sighted. If Covid does what it always has done, even when we suspected that a milder strain was going around (like in FL), it will send significant numbers to the hospital. G-d willing they will be discharged much quicker this time, but they will still show up. In other words, there is no hiding a Covid outbreak. Now, when the outbreak is discovered, there are 3 consequences.
- the medical establishment will see hospitalizations which don't correlate to reported cases and realize there is a cover-up. If we were concerned about the care we received during the first wave, you can imagine what the reaction will be now, especially as life publicly appears to go on as if nothing is happening. This reaction will not be limited to treatment of Covid; it will spill over into all future medical care, and our community doctors will have lost the trust and respect of the medical establishment.
- we were concerned about aiva during the first wave. Again, imagine the reactions of the surround communities and the general public when the cover-up is discovered, especially as it pertains to the risk everyone else was exposed to.
- the Jewish communities of NY and NJ have worked for decades to cultivate relationships with all levels of government, from community boards through state and federal offices. The trust we will lose and the relationships we will burn will have ramifications for years to come. They will dwarf the restrictions we are looking to avoid by keeping things quiet.
4) as distasteful as it is, arrangements for alternative minyanim for Rosh Hashanah should be put in place now. The risk for RH becoming a mass spreader event is huge. For those who lack nuance, that is not a prediction or an absolute. Maybe most people will be immune, maybe not. The
risk, defined as the
possible consequences, is largely unknown, and therefore cannot be ignored. Tents should be procured to help facilitate outdoor minyanim in as many places as possible, to help as many people as possible safely daven with a minyan.
5) it's time to stop the name-calling. Nobody is fear-mongering, nobody is being a government pawn, nobody wants to kill grandma, and nobody is happy with the current situation. When people post their opinions on what could be coming or what actions should be taken, take them for what they are: opinions. By and large, everyone wants what's best for themselves, for their families, for their community, and for klal yisroel. We will not agree on everything, or even most things, but the wholesale bashing of hashkafos turns us into a mirror of the partisan political farce the rest of our country has become. We should be better than that.