Back in October Lakewood was seeing a second wave of Covid and the assumption of many was that it would only be exacerbated over Yom Kippur, Sukkos, and Simchas Torah. Although there was little change in behavior my guess (after incorrectly assuming that there would be no second wave) was that numbers would quickly peak and subside, as the same interactions over and over again are not going to continue to spread the virus at the same level:
I’m guessing it is peaking now. Most places don’t have sustained peaks for long, behavior change or not. You can’t do the same thing over and over and infect that many new people. Most people who are destined to be exposed in this wave will have by now and numbers should start to drop off.
Indeed the numbers did peak, and plummeted shortly to the point that there were scarcely any new onset cases in the days after Simchas Torah.
Similarly in Israel we are seeing the chareidi sector taking less precautions than the secular yet, having peaked several weeks ago, their numbers are way down despite little change in behavior.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/292139France and other European countries have peaked and are now sharply lower. After weeks of blaming lockdown fatigue for the virus resurgence it’s hard to credit the drop off with massive behavioral change; it likely has more to do with the wave having peaked and diminished.
Where do you see the US heading in the short term? My guess is that we will see the US peak and then subside in the next 2-3 weeks long before vaccines have an impact. There will still be areas on the upswing, and mortality, a lagging indicator, will go up before it goes down, but the overall numbers will be dropping. All those experts who are now forecasting a worst case scenario with a relentless rise with skyrocketing numbers due to Xmas will be quick to claim credit. Credit will be given to people listening to social distancing and masking guidance, listening to the governors, listening to the CDC. You name it. Anyone looking at the CDC travel guidance for thanksgiving knows that that is hardly the case. The numbers will simply peak and then go down as we have seen time and time again.