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DansDeals Forum => Politics => Topic started by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Title: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 05:19:44 AM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 10, 2019, 05:56:21 AM
who do you think is going to win?!!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 06:26:05 AM
who do you think is going to win?!!

Right wing parties should pull it out at the end but BLue and white might end up with more seats (as one party)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: helpyouamdme on March 10, 2019, 10:56:51 AM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
So your mind get influence from what politicians are telling and writing?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 11:52:57 AM
So your mind get influence from what politicians are telling and writing?

I get influenced by what he has done for his beliefs....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on March 10, 2019, 11:49:41 PM
Don't you think it's a bit unfair to call it the Kahana parties? This was a deal that no body wanted and it was a choice between this or extinction. There will be more communists (Hadash) than Kahanist.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on March 10, 2019, 11:51:40 PM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
serious question, what is his platform besides legalized weed? I've only heard his give vague ideas about more freedom.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on March 11, 2019, 12:21:24 AM
serious question, what is his platform besides legalized weed?

Hey, is עלה ירוק still around? That was their platform for years
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 11, 2019, 07:07:48 AM
serious question, what is his platform besides legalized weed? I've only heard his give vague ideas about more freedom.

Here is his link: https://zehut.org.il/zehut-platform/?lang=en

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Happyguy on March 11, 2019, 07:51:17 AM
I wonder if we have any Meretz supporters here ;) ;) ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 11, 2019, 12:01:42 PM
Here is his link: https://zehut.org.il/zehut-platform/?lang=en
https://zehut.org.il/zehut-knesset-list/?lang=en Picture #18 seems to illustrate well this party.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on March 11, 2019, 11:44:50 PM
https://zehut.org.il/education-plan/?lang=en
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on March 11, 2019, 11:47:33 PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 12, 2019, 06:38:20 AM


Little I disagree with...though the question is reality...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on March 12, 2019, 12:43:40 PM
I'm not an Israeli so my opinion doesn't matter, but he won't enter a coalition unless they agree to legalize weed??
I hope he doesn't pass the minimum threshold.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 12, 2019, 02:30:05 PM
I'm not an Israeli so my opinion doesn't matter, but he won't enter a coalition unless they agree to legalize weed??
I hope he doesn't pass the minimum threshold.

False....besides Bibi today said he is going to start looking into legalizing weed as well.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: efflpetzel on March 13, 2019, 02:44:12 PM
False....besides Bibi today said he is going to start looking into legalizing weed as well.
Yup he'll do or say anything that'll get him another vote & apologize after the election to whoever was offended.

I dont know what anyone sees in him anymore, he reminds me of Ehud Barak, who also didnt know when to quit until the writing was all over the wall.

Just wait until Trump makes him give back land for his 'peace plan
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 13, 2019, 04:04:40 PM
I dont know what anyone sees in him anymore, he reminds me of Ehud Barak, who also didnt know when to quit until the writing was all over the wall.
Your "analysis" seems extremely shallow.

Not one of the clowns that are vying to replace him (or have done so in the last decade) comes close to his abilities in any area that makes a difference. And the vast majority of the electorate is aware of this.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: hocker on March 13, 2019, 04:05:16 PM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
Besides voting for a party you're also voting for it's members and for sure for it's leader.

Feiglin is serious weirdo for the lack of a better word. He's impossible to work with and therefore it will be impossible to keep a coalition going with him.
His #2 Cham Amsalem isn't much better. They're both extremely difficult and complicated individuals, the type that no one wants them in their shul....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 13, 2019, 04:09:02 PM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.

The seemingly צד השווה of Bennet and Feiglin/Zehut is that they rely solely on their own judgment, rather than submitting to a Halachic authority. (which is similar to the underlying problem of Zionism which is based on כוחי ועוצם ידי, but that's a separate issue).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Happyguy on March 13, 2019, 04:30:49 PM
The seemingly צד השווה of Bennet and Feiglin/Zehut is that they rely solely on their own judgment, rather than submitting to a Halachic authority. (which is similar to the underlying problem of Zionism which is based on כוחי ועוצם ידי, but that's a separate issue).

And Bibi does? :o
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 13, 2019, 04:42:56 PM
And Bibi does? :o

No. Which is why Torah observant Jews shouldn't be voting for him, but due to his qualifications, the parties that do submit to Halachic authorities should support him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: efflpetzel on March 13, 2019, 08:36:23 PM


but due to his qualifications, the parties that do submit to Halachic authorities should support him.
LOL his qualification is that he has longevity, which is an absurd reason to back him,
In fact the only reason people vote for him the pathetic reason they there's no one better. Basically fear of the unknown is why people vote for him, again a recipe for disaster because one day it'll be more convenient to sell out the Left/charedim & he'll have no problem in doing so.

The man has no spine all he's interested is staying in power.

People forget that he was the one that gave back a tremendous amount of land at
the Wye Accords

Do you really see him saying no to Trump if the deal he presents is bad.
I don't.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Happyguy on March 16, 2019, 03:06:09 PM
No. Which is why Torah observant Jews shouldn't be voting for him, but due to his qualifications, the parties that do submit to Halachic authorities should support him.

Should we have also supported David Ben-Gurion due to his qualifications?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 11:21:28 AM
Should we have also supported David Ben-Gurion due to his qualifications?
IDK. Wasn't around in his time.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 11:21:43 AM
https://youtu.be/52TJS8yj_20
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 12:40:30 PM
If you can read Hebrew, then read http://www.news1.co.il/Archive/003-D-133146-00.html which will shed some light on the types of accusations fielded and the facts behind them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 06:03:57 PM
Very interesting interview (in Hebrew) with Caroline Glick. https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/122929/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Denverite on March 20, 2019, 12:33:09 AM
What a great ad! If you don’t want to watch the video (or your filter blocks it) the article has a transcript. Don’t have to support the party but just a great political ad:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/44847/israeli-justice-minister-hank-berrien
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 25, 2019, 12:09:33 PM
I dont know what anyone sees in him anymore, he reminds me of Ehud Barak, who also didnt know when to quit until the writing was all over the wall.

https://www.maariv.co.il/journalists/opinions/Article-690718

Can't say I agree with everything this guy writes, but the main point is in the last few paragraphs, which IMNSHO, are indisputable (except for the very last one, which goes into predictions that I would rather avoid, as there's a lot that doesn't even depend on the Israeli leader himself).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 02, 2019, 02:27:12 PM
LOL his qualification is that he has longevity, which is an absurd reason to back him,
In fact the only reason people vote for him the pathetic reason they there's no one better. Basically fear of the unknown is why people vote for him, again a recipe for disaster because one day it'll be more convenient to sell out the Left/charedim & he'll have no problem in doing so.

The man has no spine all he's interested is staying in power.

People forget that he was the one that gave back a tremendous amount of land at
the Wye Accords

Do you really see him saying no to Trump if the deal he presents is bad.
I don't.

Check out the video on YouTube.com Never saw such comments before.


Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 11:28:39 AM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 11:38:55 AM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.

I have no clue what will happen on a national level, though I do think Bibi will remain Prime Minister, the only question is at what cost and how hard will he have to work to piece together a coalition.

What intrigues me the most and where I am willing to make a guess, knowing that I will probably be wrong, is how the vote in Kfar Chabad will split up. For that I guess we will see 55%-65% Aguda, 30%-40% Ichud Yemin, 3%-7% Shas, 1%-4% Zehut.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 12:01:45 PM
I have no clue what will happen on a national level, though I do think Bibi will remain Prime Minister, the only question is at what cost and how hard will he have to work to piece together a coalition.

What intrigues me the most and where I am willing to make a guess, knowing that I will probably be wrong, is how the vote in Kfar Chabad will split up. For that I guess we will see 55%-65% Aguda, 30%-40% Ichud Yemin, 3%-7% Shas, 1%-4% Zehut.

Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 12:02:47 PM
Interesting tweet from Bibi -
From earlier this morning in the US (about 12 noon in Israel). Bibi went to the beach to convince people to go vote, that he's losing to Lapid and Gantz.

Even if Bibi gets the lower end of polls at 25-26, and Gantz gets 30+ - can Gantz really get a coalition together? and with whom?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 12:55:45 PM
Realistic analysis:

https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/130313/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 12:57:38 PM
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

What do you know about Kfar Chabad that makes you think so?

IMHO those that will vote for Zehut in Kfar Chabad would mostly be OTD (or rebellious but not considered OTD) youngsters, and a handful of others.

I might be wrong, and I don't claim to have a crystal ball, or to even be able to guess things on a national level. But I do get some wind of what goes on within Kfar Chabad where I have family and friends.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 12:59:40 PM
What do you know about Kfar Chabad that makes you think so?

I might be wrong, and I don't claim to have a crystal ball, or to even be able to guess things on a national level. But I do get some wind of what goes on within Kfar Chabad where I have family and friends.

Sorry, I meant in the general elections...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 01:03:09 PM
Sorry, I meant in the general elections...
I sincerely hope they get a lot less than expected based on polls, though once a party is in, then IINM they get at least 3 MK's, which in this case would include the highly problematic Amsalem.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 01:06:51 PM
Realistic analysis:

https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/130313/

Thanks - it looks like 'Gevalt' is the theme of the day - https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/129735/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 01:09:17 PM
Thanks - it looks like 'Gevalt' is the theme of the day - https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/129735/


;D

Quote
19:00 – מה זה בכלל געוואלד? זמן טוב לברר.

קודם כל, בעברית אפשר לכתוב "גוואלד", או כמו ביידיש – געוואלד. בשום אופן לא "גוועלד" או צורה אחרת שבה העי"ן נמצאת אחרי הו"וים.
המילה מקורה ביידיש, ואליה היא הגיעה מהגרמנית: המילה Gewalt פירושה "כוח", "אלימות", "שליטה ו"סמכות", וכך בצירופים כמו:
Naturgewalt – כוח טבע
Hไusliche Gewalt – אלימות ביתית (דהיינו, בין בני זוג, ובדרך כלל מה שמכונה בעברית אלימות נגד נשים)
Staatsgewalt – סמכות המדינה, שליטת המדינה
אז איך הגענו מ"כוח" ל"געוואלד" שמשמעותו קריאה לעזרה? כמו דברים אחרים ביהדות, דרך אלוהים. ככל הנראה, יהודים דוברי יידיש נהגו לקרוא לכוח עליון, או ביקשו כוח מהאל, בעת צרה. הם זעקו "אוי, געוואלד", שפירושו מעין "תן לי כוח", וכשנשכחה המשמעות המקורית של המילה – נותרה רק המשמעות המשנית, של קריאה לעזרה ולהצלה.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on April 09, 2019, 01:19:00 PM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.
I don't think so. It might be tight. I believe Bibi will pull it off.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on April 09, 2019, 01:21:07 PM
 When can we expect to see results? Where is the best place to watch live results come in?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 01:25:34 PM
When can we expect to see results? Where is the best place to watch live results come in?

Polls close at 10PM (3PM EST) results should start trickling in right away but by midnight they usually have an idea and by Israel morning time it usually is official. I24 news is probably best (you need to make an account with a CC)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 01:44:58 PM
I don't think so. It might be tight. I believe Bibi will pull it off.

I think Bibi will lose to Gantz in seats, but is more likely to pull of the coalition - the golden question is - who are his bedfellows?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 01:55:49 PM
I think Bibi will lose to Gantz in seats, but is more likely to pull of the coalition - the golden question is - who are his bedfellows?

That is almost a guarantee the only question we need to ask is if Bibi goes into bed with Gantz to make a coalition...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 01:57:34 PM
This is an interesting Analysis - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-election-threshold-could-determine-next-prime-minister-1001281549

Here is what I am not clear on - let's say 4 parties get 2.5% each but fail to clear 3.25. That's about 10% of the vote, or 12 seats worth. How do those twelve get allocated - do they just ignore the 10% as if they didn't vote, and then split it among the other 90% proportionally (i.e. if Bibi gets 25% of the total vote, he should get 30 seats, but now his 25/100% = 27.7/90% he gets 33?)



 

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 02:03:11 PM
This is an interesting Analysis - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-election-threshold-could-determine-next-prime-minister-1001281549

Here is what I am not clear on - let's say 4 parties get 2.5% each but fail to clear 3.25. That's about 10% of the vote, or 12 seats worth. How do those twelve get allocated - do they just ignore the 10% as if they didn't vote, and then split it among the other 90% proportionally (i.e. if Bibi gets 25% of the total vote, he should get 30 seats, but now his 25/100% = 27.7/90% he gets 33?)

You are correct in your understanding, which is why people say not to vote for parties close to the threshold, as those votes might just end up being wasted. This is where Israeli electoral math comes into play.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 02:17:28 PM
IMHO the biggest surprise of this election is how fast Gantz learned and transformed himself.

Compare his first speech, where any animation was obviously difficult for him and scripted, to how animated he seems to be now when he talks.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 02:29:06 PM
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/politics/1554720218-analysis-low-arab-voter-turnout-won-t-be-good-news-for-anybody

https://youtu.be/TtMFjKYZ6bA
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 02:40:53 PM
Hashem Yerachim!

Report:Preliminary count of samples brings defeat to the right-wing
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 03:09:02 PM
Channel 11 saying Netanyahu has 64 seat potential coalition. (That's assuming Bennet is out).

(https://i.imgur.com/HFja1mN.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/MxI5v7y.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/Uc7fSPX.png)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 03:31:11 PM
Will we see a repeat of what we saw in the 2016 US elections?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 03:44:10 PM
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

Based on exit polls, will we see someone joining @ChaimMoskowitz for a feast of Crow?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gingyguy on April 09, 2019, 03:55:14 PM
Based on exit polls, will we see someone joining @ChaimMoskowitz for a feast of Crow?
so that's where he is!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:02:29 PM
Also to be noted that nothing is final until the votes of the soldiers are counted, so we are days away from final results, especially with parties very close, and on either side of the minimum threshold.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:28:10 PM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.

Here's my prediction - Nir Barkat is being groomed to take Netanyahu's place after Netanyahu retires.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ~King Lake~ on April 09, 2019, 04:31:13 PM
Gantz is Prime minister until 1 am
lapid until 5 am
and bibi is from the morning for 4 years
 ;) ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on April 09, 2019, 04:43:18 PM
Hashem Yerachim!

Report:Preliminary count of samples brings defeat to the right-wing
Reminds me of the 2016 exit polls.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:47:55 PM
Reminds me of the 2016 exit polls.

Though in the US, Clinton ended up not speaking. Whereas the Israelis already had Peres once crowned by the exit polls as the next PM, hold a victory speech, only to discover that he was unable to form a coalition government.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:52:00 PM
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

Someone seems to have egg on his face and is signaling desperation.

https://www.makorrishon.co.il/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/%D7%A1%D7%A8%D7%98%D7%95%D7%9F-%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%99%D7%92%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%9F-1.mp4?_=11
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:59:23 PM
https://players.brightcove.net/665003303001/4k5gFJHRe_default/index.html?videoId=6024306657001

Important point at 4:50
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 05:20:49 PM
As of now, here's a snippet of real results out of 29,403 valid votes counted:  ;D

נ נח - הרשימה הממלכתית - תרימו את הראש   ףץ   0.01%   4
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 05:39:54 PM
I have no clue what will happen on a national level, though I do think Bibi will remain Prime Minister, the only question is at what cost and how hard will he have to work to piece together a coalition.

What intrigues me the most and where I am willing to make a guess, knowing that I will probably be wrong, is how the vote in Kfar Chabad will split up. For that I guess we will see 55%-65% Aguda, 30%-40% Ichud Yemin, 3%-7% Shas, 1%-4% Zehut.

Seems like I was wrong:

תוצאות סופיות בכפר חב"ד:

6 קלפיות שנספרו:
טב – איחוד הימין, מובילה בפער ניכר מהאחרות עם 1551 קולות. -57.31%
ג' – יהדות התורה רושמת 563 קולות -20.80%
הליכוד עם נתניהו מביאים תוצאה מפתיעה: 448 קולות -16.56%
רשימת ש"ס עם 68 קולות -2.51%
'זהות' של פייגלין עם 76 קולות -2.80%

I guess with certain developments in recent years that went counter to the Rebbe's instructions, I should have predicted more of a vote which cannot be aligned with the Rebbe's directive to vote for המפלגה החרדית ביותר. Very unfortunate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Mordyk on April 09, 2019, 05:44:10 PM
https://www.vosizneias.com/320805/2019/04/09/jerusalem-gantz-declares-victory-over-netanyahu-hails-historic-vote/


how is he so convinced if final polls arent out?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 05:50:34 PM
https://www.vosizneias.com/320805/2019/04/09/jerusalem-gantz-declares-victory-over-netanyahu-hails-historic-vote/


how is he so convinced if final polls arent out?

What do you want him to say? Let's wait for final results so we can concede defeat?

He's taking advantage of his high point in the cycle to create some buzz, but it will fade away in the face of reality and they all know it!. An analogy would be if HRC would have come out to celebrate and declare winning the popular vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 09, 2019, 05:57:59 PM
What do you want him to say? Let's wait for final results so we can concede defeat?

He's taking advantage of his high point in the cycle to create some buzz, but it will fade away in the face of reality and they all know it!.

To add, if he succeeds in getting the story to be about how he won, he has an increased (although still slight) chance of forming a coalition.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 06:22:19 PM
To add, if he succeeds in getting the story to be about how he won, he has an increased (although still slight) chance of forming a coalition.

Lieberman, Kahlon, Shas, Aguda, Ichud Yemin have all pledged to recommend Netanyahu. Doing otherwise for any of them would be political suicide. Gantz has NO CHANCE.

The only chances of survival parts of the Blue & White party have, is if they break up to the parts that formed them, and then some parts might join Netanyahu and survive. Maybe if Lapid & Co. were out, Netanyahu could talk to the rest. But Lapid is a non-starter.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 09, 2019, 07:28:21 PM
Gantz is Prime minister until 1 am
lapid until 5 am
and bibi is from the morning for 4 years
 ;) ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 07:36:54 PM
At this point it seems like Gantz will be hosting the biggest Crow Feast of the century.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: myi on April 09, 2019, 07:38:29 PM
At this point it seems like Gantz will be hosting the biggest Crow Feast of the century.
where's @JTZ?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 07:45:34 PM
where's @JTZ?
Having a feast with @ChaimMoskowitz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on April 09, 2019, 07:48:09 PM
At this point it seems like Gantz will be hosting the biggest Crow Feast of the century.
Or he can just go the Stacy Abrams route and never admit that he lost.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 09, 2019, 08:05:15 PM


Or he can just go the dems route and never admit that he lost because there's an open investigation

Ftfy
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzyul on April 09, 2019, 08:09:09 PM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 08:12:01 PM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.

It definitely helps with the greater numbers of Shas and UTJ (with Shas pre-pledging support for Netanyahu, which wasn't that obvious in the past. Maybe UTJ should learn from them and make a similar pledge in the future).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 09, 2019, 08:51:27 PM
It definitely helps with the greater numbers of Shas and UTJ (with Shas pre-pledging support for Netanyahu, which wasn't that obvious in the past. Maybe UTJ should learn from them and make a similar pledge in the future).

Im pretty sure I remember seeing ג did pledge for Bibi. They for sure said that they would never sit in a coalition with Lapid.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 09, 2019, 08:57:31 PM
Who won?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 09, 2019, 09:01:48 PM
Who won?
Looks like netanyahu is slightly ahead of gantz, and right wing Bloc has the majority of seats
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 09:04:14 PM
Im pretty sure I remember seeing ג did pledge for Bibi. They for sure said that they would never sit in a coalition with Lapid.
They definitely said Lapid is a non-starter, but they didn't put Bibi in the center of their campaign like Shas did. Had they done so, maybe they would have got more votes in Kfar Chabad and Beitar (amongst other places) rather than people voting Likud.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 09, 2019, 11:35:33 PM
They definitely said Lapid is a non-starter, but they didn't put Bibi in the center of their campaign like Shas did. Had they done so, maybe they would have got more votes in Kfar Chabad and Beitar (amongst other places) rather than people voting Likud.
Who do chabad officially vote for?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on April 09, 2019, 11:37:11 PM
Who do chabad officially vote for?

I guess with certain developments in recent years that went counter to the Rebbe's instructions, I should have predicted more of a vote which cannot be aligned with the Rebbe's directive to vote for המפלגה החרדית ביותר. Very unfortunate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on April 09, 2019, 11:37:23 PM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 11:47:09 PM
Who do chabad officially vote for?

With one historical exception (in which the Rebbe instructed to support UTJ), the Rebbe's instructions have always been for individuals to vote for מפלגה החרדית ביותר, and that Chabad doesn't endorse any party.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on April 10, 2019, 12:20:30 AM
the problem with some is that they side with Arabs against Jews other then that we never believed the Zionism is the correct path, although today's generation is much different as most of them are tinokos shenishbu.

someone once asked rav oirbach if they should protest with the arabs he responded CH'V the arabs protest the little bit of yiddishkeit that they have while we protest the lack of yiddishkeit
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Baruch on April 10, 2019, 12:26:21 AM
It definitely helps with the greater numbers of Shas and UTJ (with Shas pre-pledging support for Netanyahu, which wasn't that obvious in the past. Maybe UTJ should learn from them and make a similar pledge in the future).
From https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Gantz-beats-Netanyahu-with-largest-number-of-seats-coalition-unclear-586230
President Reuven Rivlin will meet with the heads of the parties that cross the threshold next week. Shas, UTJ and URP announced late Tuesday that they would recommend Netanyahu to form the government. Kahlon and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman said they would wait for the final results.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on April 10, 2019, 12:30:56 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
R' Reuven Grozovsky and R' Elchonon both have plenty written on the topic.
Title: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:36:09 AM
From https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Gantz-beats-Netanyahu-with-largest-number-of-seats-coalition-unclear-586230
President Reuven Rivlin will meet with the heads of the parties that cross the threshold next week. Shas, UTJ and URP announced late Tuesday that they would recommend Netanyahu to form the government. Kahlon and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman said they would wait for the final results.
Announcing this after the election, or even a couple of days before, isn’t enough to calm and convince the base that they wouldn’t sell out to Gantz if the opportunity presented itself (especially when some of the MKs such as Gafni and Eichler are perceived as left wingers).

Contrast this with Deri who knew that his base unequivocally wants Bibi as PM, so he campaigned under the banner of Shas supporting Netanyahu for PM, telling people that by voting for Shas they get two benefits for the price of one, they get the Shas social agenda with absolute support for Bibi as PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on April 10, 2019, 01:12:22 AM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: YitzyS on April 10, 2019, 01:14:26 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
There was a book published recently called “The Empty Wagon”. I didn’t read it but I heard it’s excellent and very extensive.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: YitzyS on April 10, 2019, 01:23:14 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
Sent PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: User6669 on April 10, 2019, 01:45:29 AM
Congratulations Netanyahu.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ludmila on April 10, 2019, 01:47:35 AM
Congratulations Netanyahu.
Official or not yet?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 10, 2019, 02:56:34 AM
Official or not yet?

It is official that he will be Prime Minister, how many seats he gets is not official.  I am shocked by Zeut's and Bennetts destruction. Shaked aligned herself with the wrong person.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on April 10, 2019, 06:38:23 AM
R' Reuven Grozovsky and R' Elchonon both have plenty written on the topic.
Thanx where would i find it? Is it in a Sefer somewhere?
I think my friend would only be able to read it if it’s in English
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 10, 2019, 07:08:53 AM
Thanx where would i find it? Is it in a Sefer somewhere?
I think my friend would only be able to read it if it’s in English
https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Wagon-Zionisms-journey-identity/dp/1642555541


I haven't read it,but my impression is that he had an agenda to marry the litvish hashkofa with satmar.

So in reality he's probably 80% accurate and 20% satmar influence. Not the pure hashkofa.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 08:10:52 AM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.

It helps with Bibi's legal troubles.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 08:38:30 AM
It is official that he will be Prime Minister, how many seats he gets is not official.  I am shocked by Zeut's and Bennetts destruction. Shaked aligned herself with the wrong person.
Zehut wasn't destroyed, it was never more than a cloud of smoke (pun intended). The non-commitment to support either support Netanyahu or Gantz definitely didn't help anyone who wanted to get in.

As for the New Right, they didn't really put forth a compelling story. They are seen as spineless opportunistic troublemakers that eventually do the right thing. So if my choice is between Shaked and another vote that might get Ben Gvir in, I am sure many would choose the latter.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 09:39:05 AM
Official or not yet?
https://ladaat.co/archives/24853

Probably by tomorrow afternoon (Israel time) we will have final results.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 10, 2019, 09:50:22 AM
With one historical exception (in which the Rebbe instructed to support UTJ), the Rebbe's instructions have always been for individuals to vote for מפלגה החרדית ביותר, and that Chabad doesn't endorse any party.

So who generally is the מפלגה החרדית ביותר that you are saying UTJ was the exception?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: doodle on April 10, 2019, 09:50:52 AM
https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Wagon-Zionisms-journey-identity/dp/1642555541


I haven't read it,but my impression is that he had an agenda to marry the litvish hashkofa with satmar.

So in reality he's probably 80% accurate and 20% satmar influence. Not the pure hashkofa.
No way near 80% accurate.
Recreating history , choosing the Gedolim/Shitos that fit the narrative. Partially accurate but incorrect overall view/agenda .
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 10, 2019, 09:53:05 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
You have it wrong:

Satmar's main priority with this demonstration is not to protest against Bibi - it's to protest against most of Chareidi Jews and their Gedolim for not being in line with their "shitah"....

It is indeed terrible......
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 09:54:33 AM
So who generally is the מפלגה החרדית ביותר that you are saying UTJ was the exception?

The exception was publicly and officially supporting a specific party, rather than leaving it to individual judgment, which is based on subjective opinions. I have no doubt in my mind that if Gafni and Eichler weren't in the UTJ list, UTJ would get a much larger portion of the Kfar Chabad vote.

Some of the logic used, is that a true חרדי would know that פיקוח נפש goes ahead of many other things, and supporting a left wing government (or agenda of appeasement) is regarded as Pikuach Nefesh.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 10, 2019, 09:56:05 AM
The exception was publicly and officially supporting a specific party, rather than leaving it to individual judgment, which is based on subjective opinions. I have no doubt in my mind that if Gafni and Eichler weren't in the UTJ list, UTJ would get a much larger portion of the Kfar Chabad vote.
Got it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 10, 2019, 10:00:20 AM
The exception was publicly and officially supporting a specific party, rather than leaving it to individual judgment, which is based on subjective opinions. I have no doubt in my mind that if Gafni and Eichler weren't in the UTJ list, UTJ would get a much larger portion of the Kfar Chabad vote.

Some of the logic used, is that a true חרדי would know that פיקוח נפש goes ahead of many other things, and supporting a left wing government (or agenda of appeasement) is regarded as Pikuach Nefesh.
So Shas?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:06:59 AM
As for the New Right, they didn't really put forth a compelling story. They are seen as spineless opportunistic troublemakers that eventually do the right thing.

Why would someone vote for them rather than Likud? Did they make that case?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:08:04 AM
So Shas?

Even worse from a shleimus ha'aretz perspective.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 10:13:26 AM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on April 10, 2019, 10:18:09 AM

I think my friend would only be able to read it if it’s in English
definitely not english
https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Wagon-Zionisms-journey-identity/dp/1642555541


I haven't read it,but my impression is that he had an agenda to marry the litvish hashkofa with satmar.

So in reality he's probably 80% accurate and 20% satmar influence. Not the pure hashkofa.
He's much closer to Satmar than that.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:40:19 AM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....

B"H, now that we have a dose of sinas chinam this thread is a real Israeli election thread.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on April 10, 2019, 10:46:46 AM
B"H, now that we have a dose of sinas chinam this thread is a real Israeli election thread.
Look in the mirror.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:47:49 AM
Look in the mirror.

Huh?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 11:06:51 AM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....

You start sounding like CBC when you write like that.

Not saying that I agree with the writer, but if you want to understand the reasoning of people to vote for the United Right Wing read http://col.org.il/%D7%97%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%97%D7%91%D7%93_%D7%9C%D7%9E%D7%94_%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%99_%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%98%D7%91_%D7%95%D7%9C%D7%90_%D7%90%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%92_%D7%93%D7%A2%D7%94_117541.html

Which also explains some of the history where Shas is

Even worse from a shleimus ha'aretz perspective.

It would be a long stretch to call Shas מפלגה החרדית ביותר (and even a greater stretch to do so for the United Right Wing). Accepting ministerial positions, especially in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, or at the Ministry of Interior, presents very serious Halachic problems.

As for Shleimus Ha'aretz (or Pikuach Nefesh), while it is true that Shas (and specifically Arye Deri) have an extremely tainted history, I think at this point they have learned their lesson. (Though I would think Deri learned it better, as he has personally suffered, whereas Gafni (and Litzman) never saw real personal consequences for their support of Gaza withdrawal.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 11:47:19 AM
Electoral math:

(https://i.imgur.com/jLQhCQr.png)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 11:49:22 AM

It would be a long stretch to call Shas מפלגה החרדית ביותר. Accepting ministerial positions, especially in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, or at the Ministry of Interior, presents very serious Halachic problems.


Aren't all of their decisions based on the psokim of their rabbonim? Is Rabbi Sholom Cohen (or Rabbi Ovadia Yosef) less charedi than the rabbonim of ג?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 11:52:14 AM
Aren't all of their decisions based on the psokim of their rabbonim? Is Rabbi Sholom Cohen (or Rabbi Ovadia Yosef) less charedi than the rabbonim of ג?

Would any of the Rabbonim of ג ever consider accepting or running for a position of Chief Rabbi of the State of Israel?

ETA: Read https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=13937.msg1921517#msg1921517 and follow the link to read the booklet יהדות התורה והמדינה. This might give people some better perspective of where Chabad stands.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:15:16 PM
How's this for a possible scenario:

Blue & White disintegrates, either entirely or into the 3 or 4 parts that united in order to form it, and some of those end up supporting a Netanyahu coalition, while Lieberman remains out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 12:19:58 PM
How's this for a possible scenario:

Blue & White disintegrates, either entirely or into the 3 or 4 parts that united in order to form it, and some of those end up supporting a Netanyahu coalition, while Lieberman remains out.

All is possible. It's crucial for Charedim that Bennett passes with the military votes. He needs to get 5% among them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:22:35 PM
All is possible. It's crucial for Charedim that Bennett passes with the military votes. He needs to get 5% among them.
I'm not so sure that is true. While Bennet is probably easier to deal with than Lieberman, he's a bit of a troublemaker for no good reason, and if he gets in with 4 or 5 seats (the difference in votes is minuscule) who loses?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 12:48:21 PM
I'm not so sure that is true. While Bennet is probably easier to deal with than Lieberman, he's a bit of a troublemaker for no good reason, and if he gets in with 4 or 5 seats (the difference in votes is minuscule) who loses?

UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:56:11 PM
UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.

I don't know if that is accurate, the math is very complex (see image I posted above). Lieberman is indeed a headache, and Netanyahu knows that UTJ and Shas are probably the most reliable partners.

As for losing the 8th, that would be a shame. I think Pindrus is a very talented guy (I've heard good things about him from people that worked with him when he was mayor of Beitar) who has been a victim of political games (mostly by his own faction) played over the last decade or so.

I have a sense (maybe a hope) that the last local election in Israel were the low point of מחלוקת, and we are on a way up from here towards productive unity with mutual respect. Let's hope that we see only positive and uniting actions and words henceforth.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 02:26:46 PM
Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.

Bibi can get a very narrow coalition without Lieberman now, if he includes Kahlon. Not saying that he's going to do it, but it's possible.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 10, 2019, 02:52:11 PM
Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 03:02:20 PM
Bibi can get a very narrow coalition without Lieberman now, if he includes Kahlon. Not saying that he's going to do it, but it's possible.

Only 60 without him now. Things will shift around tomorrow with the last quarter million votes counted.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 03:02:36 PM
Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely

He won't do it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 03:34:33 PM
Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely

You really think so?

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 05:00:24 PM
Only 60 without him now. Things will shift around tomorrow with the last quarter million votes counted.

I see now. The numbers I was looking at had Likud at 37, and Balad not making it in.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on April 10, 2019, 06:37:37 PM
I recall that there is a law that you need a certain number of MKs to break off from a party, I guess the most ideal option would be to convince enough center-right MKs to leave Gantz and then you won’t need Lieberman
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 07:10:06 PM
I recall that there is a law that you need a certain number of MKs to break off from a party, I guess the most ideal option would be to convince enough center-right MKs to leave Gantz and then you won’t need Lieberman

Netanyahu obviously had moles within the Gantz campaign/close circles, as evidenced by leaks of recordings. While Lapid is too arrogant (besides for being persona non-grata), and Gantz would need to backtrack on public statements he made, I will not be surprised if we see defectors or a breakup.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: doodle on April 10, 2019, 08:11:08 PM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....
From many other things, this rings true ..
can you link sources to this pattern ?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 01:37:50 AM
UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.
Not final yet, but if indeed Bennet gets in, while it seems to be most detrimental to Blue & White, it hurts by having UTJ lose the 8th seat, as well as United Right Wing losing a seat, which keeps Ben Gvir (the only candidate of that list that I would have loved to see in, as he is great entertainment and a wonderful thorn in the side of the left wing) further away from getting in.

Quote
אם אכן תיכנס מפלגת הימין החדש לכנסת, משמעות הדבר כי מפלגת כחול לבן תרד מ-35 ל-33 מנדטים. איחוד מפלגות הימין תרד במנדט מ-5 ל-4 מנדטים, וכך גם מפלגת יהדות התורה שתרד מ-8 מנדטים ל-7.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 11, 2019, 05:35:01 AM
Not final yet, but if indeed Bennet gets in, while it seems to be most detrimental to Blue & White, it hurts by having UTJ lose the 8th seat, as well as United Right Wing losing a seat, which keeps Ben Gvir (the only candidate of that list that I would have loved to see in, as he is great entertainment and a wonderful thorn in the side of the left wing) further away from getting in.

Seems Bennett is out and Likud is at 37.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 11, 2019, 06:02:24 AM
You start sounding like CBC when you write like that.

Not saying that I agree with the writer, but if you want to understand the reasoning of people to vote for the United Right Wing read http://col.org.il/%D7%97%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%97%D7%91%D7%93_%D7%9C%D7%9E%D7%94_%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%99_%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%98%D7%91_%D7%95%D7%9C%D7%90_%D7%90%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%92_%D7%93%D7%A2%D7%94_117541.html

Which also explains some of the history where Shas is

It would be a long stretch to call Shas מפלגה החרדית ביותר (and even a greater stretch to do so for the United Right Wing). Accepting ministerial positions, especially in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, or at the Ministry of Interior, presents very serious Halachic problems.

As for Shleimus Ha'aretz (or Pikuach Nefesh), while it is true that Shas (and specifically Arye Deri) have an extremely tainted history, I think at this point they have learned their lesson. (Though I would think Deri learned it better, as he has personally suffered, whereas Gafni (and Litzman) never saw real personal consequences for their support of Gaza withdrawal.
Oh stop being so sensitive. If it's true that y'all vote for mizrachi then that's all he said.

And please stop saying rediculous things like Shas and ג not being the most charedi. They clearly and obviously are. Duh.

Even the article you linked doesn't claim that.

The aurgument is that not having extreme right ring views is pikuach nefesh so you can vote for mizrachi. Ok, obviously this is not something 90% of the frum world agreed with but I guess you are entitled.

You are also not entitled to pull out your " sinas chinam" card when it is you who separate from the rest of the frum world for elections..
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 02:31:04 PM
Oh stop being so sensitive. If it's true that y'all vote for mizrachi then that's all he said.

All I said was that when @Moshe123 starts making assumptions or drawing conclusions as to what others think or feel, he sounds like you.

And please stop saying rediculous things like Shas and ג not being the most charedi. They clearly and obviously are. Duh.

Though you are the only one who seems to have a reading comprehension problem (as well as a problem using simple logic).

מפגלה החרדית ביותר can only be one party. This ain't your kids, who can all be the most loved, we are talking about a certain criterion for voting for a political party, where you can only vote for one. So which one of the two is it in your opinion? I clearly outlined a certain very obvious difference between the two.

I will furthermore state, that while it would have been wonderful to see even more unity, it is quite obvious that the reason Shas didn't unite with UTJ was in order to attract the Sephardic votes that wouldn't likely vote so easily for a "Chareidi" block. They might have made a right calculation. IDK.

Even the article you linked doesn't claim that.

The aurgument is that not having extreme right ring views is pikuach nefesh so you can vote for mizrachi. Ok, obviously this is not something 90% of the frum world agreed with but I guess you are entitled.
I didn't say the article said anything about being Charedi or not. That being said, if a person seems and acts "Charedi" but is a blatantly practices Mesirah, and not only in דיני ממונות, but even in דיני נפשות. Whereas another might not seem outwardly Charedi, might be more independent in actions and decisions, rather than deferring to דעת תורה, but will by no means put another Jew in danger, which one is more "Charedi"?

You are also not entitled to pull out your " sinas chinam" card when it is you who separate from the rest of the frum world for elections..
I definitely didn't draw the "sinas chinam" card, though when it comes to involvement in politics, the Rebbe's shitta is clearly different that most of the rest of the "frum world". The Rebbe being the only legitimate spokesperson for Chabad clearly stated that Chabad does not join or endorse any party, and whatever political (as in policy issues, rather than political parties) involvement exists, it is only in things that are relevant to כלל ישראל, rather than advancing sectorial needs.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 11, 2019, 02:33:31 PM
No assumptions.

https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=696

Results from Kfar Chabad.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 02:40:40 PM
No assumptions.

https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=696

Results from Kfar Chabad.

I posted those results before they were made public on the Israeli government website, and lamented them.

However, when you write
Quote
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it
that is making assumptions about where people's sympathies lie.

When Litzman, Gafni and Deri (and possibly also Eichler, I'm not sure) all have a proven record of aiding and abetting government decisions that are deemed Pikuach Nefesh, people have a hard time voting for them in a clear conscience. It's that simple. (not saying that I agree or disagree, or what I would have done, but just stating the simple reasoning, that has nothing to do with sympathies. Chabad is and was always opposed to Zionism, but doesn't let that get in the way of loving and caring for every Jew, even if they are Zionists).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 11, 2019, 02:51:35 PM
I posted those results before they were made public on the Israeli government website, and lamented them.

However, when you writethat is making assumptions about where people's sympathies lie.

When Litzman, Gafni and Deri (and possibly also Eichler, I'm not sure) all have a proven record of aiding and abetting government decisions that are deemed Pikuach Nefesh, people have a hard time voting for them in a clear conscience. It's that simple. (not saying that I agree or disagree, or what I would have done, but just stating the simple reasoning, that has nothing to do with sympathies. Chabad is and was always opposed to Zionism, but doesn't let that get in the way of loving and caring for every Jew, even if they are Zionists).

I assume you mean that they are voting opposite the side that would be deemed pikuach nefesh.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 02:59:15 PM
I assume you mean that they are voting opposite the side that would be deemed pikuach nefesh.

Deri was a minister in the government that approved the Oslo accords and didn't vote against them.

Litzman was AWOL at a vote regarding the Gaza withdrawal.

Gafni actually voted against the Gaza withdrawal but is viewed as aiding and abetting by helping vote for the government budget, which allowed the government to last beyond the Gaza withdrawal rather than fall before the withdrawal could be carried out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 05:18:38 PM
Final results published, only change seems to be Likud gaining 1 seat at the expense of UTJ  :( However, while these results do seem final, the official count gets published next Wednesday (ask @Yehuda57 as to when that is, he might tell you that the official count is being published this Wednesday).

Let's hope Lieberman doesn't end up being too much of a troublemaker, and that URW manages to get Ben-Gvir in as they have pledged to do, so we get some good entertainment and a thorn in the Lefties sides.

Quote
ועדת הבחירות המרכזית פרסמה הערב (חמישי) את התוצאות הסופיות של הבחירות לכנסת ה-21 שנערכו ביום שלישי השבוע, לאחר סיום הבדיקות וחישוב תוצאות הסכמי העודפים.

על פי התוצאות הסופיות הליכוד היא המפלגה הגדולה ביותר עם 36 מנדטים, במקום השני כחול לבן עם 35 מנדטים.

ש"ס מקבלת 8 מנדטים, יהדות התורה 7 מנדטים, העבודה 6 מנדטים, חד"ש-תע"ל 6 מנדטים, ישראל ביתנו 5 מנדטים, איחוד מפלגות הימין 5 מנדטים, כולנו 4 מנדטים, מרצ 4 מנדטים ורע"מ-בל"ד גם כן 4 מנדטים.

על פי התוצאות הסופיות עומד גוש הימין על 65 מנדטים ואילו גוש השמאל עומד על 55 מנדטים. ‏לימין החדש היו חסרים 1461 קולות כדי להיכנס לכנסת.

ו"ר ועדת הבחירות המרכזית, השופט חנן מלצר, הדגיש כי התוצאות שפורסמו הערב ''אינן התוצאות הרשמיות שיפורסמו ב-17 באפריל 2019 ויוגשו לנשיא המדינה.

''אנו שומרים לעצמנו את הזכות לבחון את התוצאות בכלי בקרה נוספים שונים, שמפעילה הוועדה, לצורך שיקוף ההצבעה הבוחרים בתוצאות, באופן המיטיבי ובהתאם לחוק הבחירות לכנסת, ולכן תוצאות אלה עוד כפופות לשינויים והתאמות", הוסיף מלצר.

במפלגת הימין החדש הגיבו: ''התוצאות שפורסמו אינן סופיות, ואנחנו ממשיכים להילחם. אנו מצפים מהתקשורת לגלות קצת יותר רצינות בדיווחיה.

''לאורך היום הוקם במטה המפלגה חמ"ל שריכז כ-1,000 כשלים וליקויים בהליכי ההצבעה. מיד בתחילת השבוע נקבל לידינו את הפרוטוקולים ומאות המתנדבים שלנו ישוו אותם לתוצאות הממוחשבות.

''כמו כן, נטפל בכל אי הסדרים הקיצוניים שהתגלו בספירת המעטפות הכפולות. נקבל את הכרעת הבוחר, אך לא נוותר עד שנדע מה היא באמת", הוסיפו בימין החדש.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on April 11, 2019, 07:31:40 PM
The new government will not last long. There's no way the charedim and Lieberman can sit together peacefully. And there's no coalition without them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 12, 2019, 03:10:58 AM
The new government will not last long. There's no way the charedim and Lieberman can sit together peacefully. And there's no coalition without them.

Unless Netanyahu can convince certain Blue and White MK's to move back to Likud...It is a real possibility and then he can leave Lieberman out. (He would only need 2-3
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on April 12, 2019, 08:44:16 AM
Really hoping for Ben gvir!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 12, 2019, 09:06:20 AM
Really hoping for Ben gvir!

Yup. No one comes close to the entertainment he can provide.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 16, 2019, 06:11:52 AM
Very curious what the % of Charedim actually vote in elections....UTJ getting 8 seats is I believe a record for them....What would happen if the Charedim voted the same as the national average would they not be over 10-12 seats?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 16, 2019, 06:42:31 AM
Very curious what the % of Charedim actually vote in elections....UTJ getting 8 seats is I believe a record for them....What would happen if the Charedim voted the same as the national average would they not be over 10-12 seats?
Charedim vote more than the national average. (Approx 75% vs 65%)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 16, 2019, 06:53:30 AM
Charedim vote more than the national average. (Approx 75% vs 65%)

How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 16, 2019, 07:00:40 AM
How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
Sure they vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 16, 2019, 07:06:42 AM
How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
Most chassidim vote. Only a few sects do not
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 08:36:12 AM
How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
What would make you assume that when the following (large) sects are actually members of UTJ and either have or had MKs: Ger, Vizhnitz, Belz? In addition a few other sects are members of UTJ.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chff on April 16, 2019, 08:39:10 AM
Most chassidim vote. Only a few sects do not
Just a small thought I had, there was 40+ parties running in this election. If Satmar would vote, there would have been another few parties
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 16, 2019, 08:44:06 AM
Just a small thought I had, there was 40+ parties running in this election. If Satmar would vote, there would have been another few parties
Cmiiw, but I don't think there are that many satmar living in EY. There are some others that don't vota, but I think it would probably translate into maybe 1-2 more seats. No source for these numbers, just what it seems to me
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 09:07:02 AM
Most chassidim vote. Only a few sects do not
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 16, 2019, 09:07:56 AM
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?
Of course
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 09:09:48 AM
Of course
Segregated M/F lines?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 16, 2019, 09:43:37 AM
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?
I have no clue.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shapsam on April 16, 2019, 09:49:10 AM
Segregated M/F lines?
They coordinate the timing with the men and women.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 16, 2019, 11:44:09 AM
Segregated M/F lines?
Segregated M/F lines in the Makolet?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 01:49:17 PM
I don't know if that is accurate, the math is very complex (see image I posted above). Lieberman is indeed a headache, and Netanyahu knows that UTJ and Shas are probably the most reliable partners.

As for losing the 8th, that would be a shame. I think Pindrus is a very talented guy (I've heard good things about him from people that worked with him when he was mayor of Beitar) who has been a victim of political games (mostly by his own faction) played over the last decade or so.

I have a sense (maybe a hope) that the last local election in Israel were the low point of מחלוקת, and we are on a way up from here towards productive unity with mutual respect. Let's hope that we see only positive and uniting actions and words henceforth.

Seems like UTJ is at 8 after official results published, at the expense of Likud.

https://13news.co.il/item/news/politics/elections-2019/netanyahu-peretz-221106/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yammer on April 16, 2019, 01:55:45 PM
Just a small thought I had, there was 40+ parties running in this election. If Satmar would vote, there would have been another few parties
They can be a different party but would probably come together for the election.
Cmiiw, but I don't think there are that many satmar living in EY. There are some others that don't vota, but I think it would probably translate into maybe 1-2 more seats. No source for these numbers, just what it seems to me
If you include all the Yirushalmis that don't vote your taking about 2+ seats IMHO
Seems like UTJ is at 8 after official results published, at the expense of Likud.

https://13news.co.il/item/news/politics/elections-2019/netanyahu-peretz-221106/
Yup
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 16, 2019, 02:34:40 PM
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?

Ishto K'Goof oh - their husbands get to vote twice.

In communities where they regulate women's exercise classes and the color of their underwear, I can't imagine they would let them vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on April 16, 2019, 03:31:48 PM
Seems like UTJ is at 8 after official results published, at the expense of Likud.

https://13news.co.il/item/news/politics/elections-2019/netanyahu-peretz-221106/
Awesome. So Pindrus is in?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 16, 2019, 05:42:20 PM
Yes
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on April 16, 2019, 07:59:14 PM
Yes
Nice. Finally back on the map since his lost mayoral race. He did a lot for Beitar in his day. Brought in a lot of foreign funds to build up the city.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on April 16, 2019, 08:14:59 PM
In EY elections is very personal,
its either a Mitzvah to vote or an Avairah, Either you love the party or hate it on a personal level.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on April 16, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
In EY everything is very personal,
its either a Mitzvah or an Avairah, Either you love it or you hate it on a personal level.
FTFY.  :P
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 16, 2019, 09:50:50 PM
Among Jews
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on May 13, 2019, 11:01:46 PM
Any update on coalition talks? I haven’t really heard anything lately
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ~King Lake~ on May 13, 2019, 11:25:40 PM
Any update on coalition talks? I haven’t really heard anything lately
Looks like Bibi is having trouble putting together one
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on May 14, 2019, 06:33:13 AM
Any update on coalition talks? I haven’t really heard anything lately

Lieberman holding out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on May 14, 2019, 07:03:51 AM
Lieberman holding out.
He’s no good, he hates the chareidim and he’s not dependable, he left the last coalition.
I still think Bibi should try to take away some MKs from Gantz, has there been any talk of that? I’m sure it shouldn’t be too hard to find 5-6 guys that would rather be in the government than in the opposition, and anyways from What I hear, there’s a lot of infighting in Ganz’s party. Everyone there wants to be in charge
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 29, 2019, 05:34:23 PM
Round 2 coming up.

I can't figure out why they don't just do it as a two round system in the first place.

Round one needs to get 1/120th of electorate to get into round 2. Round 2 to be held two weeks later needs 1/12th (or other high threshold) to get in. That way all agreements get done before round 2, people know better what they are voting for, and the circus and demands get reduced).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on May 29, 2019, 07:38:48 PM
Not a bad idea, but very hard to get the vote out twice.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 29, 2019, 07:50:00 PM
The polls are predicting a similar outcome, where the right wing bloc has 59+ Liberman, so we may only be at the beginning of this circus.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Denverite on May 29, 2019, 08:30:53 PM
The polls are predicting a similar outcome, where the right wing bloc has 59+ Liberman, so we may only be at the beginning of this circus.

Sorry, not familiar with the details of the Israeli system. In the Sep. redo is it the exact same parties? If not, could Bennet and Shaked go back with the National religious party because their splinter cost that block 4 seats because they failed to meet the minimum.  Just those extra Dati Leumi votes could make a new majority.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 29, 2019, 08:39:22 PM
It's an open election, anybody can run. The problem with that is Shaked is not religious, and those parties have religious agendas. Shaked will likely join either the Likud or Liberman where she can have a more significant career.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on May 29, 2019, 11:27:18 PM
Shaked will probably join likud. Not sure about Bennet.

If feiglin voters dump him and you have Bennet and feiglin voters voting right parties.. that and Arab party not making cut could swing right wing block to 70+ seats

So Lieberman would not be a factor.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 30, 2019, 01:10:34 AM
Shaked will probably join likud. Not sure about Bennet.

If feiglin voters dump him and you have Bennet and feiglin voters voting right parties.. that and Arab party not making cut could swing right wing block to 70+ seats

So Lieberman would not be a factor.
IMHO it’s a futile exercise to try to predict anything at this point before we even know who’s in the race (as in party mergers and shifts).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on May 30, 2019, 05:02:43 AM
IMHO it’s a futile exercise to try to predict anything at this point before we even know who’s in the race (as in party mergers and shifts).

Very true but it seems like Feiglin is looking to join with another party based on posts he put out today. Bennett has to realize he is a nothing without Shaked and he should be like Eli Yishai giving his votes to another party.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 30, 2019, 06:04:06 AM
Very true but it seems like Feiglin is looking to join with another party based on posts he put out today. Bennett has to realize he is a nothing without Shaked and he should be like Eli Yishai giving his votes to another party.
Do you really think anyone (except for possibly Lieberman) would take him.

I think Lieberman might take some votes away from Blue and White, as he's singing a similar tune to Lapid.

I also think that overall Blue and White might set a record as the fastest and most spectacular crash of Israeli politics.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on May 30, 2019, 07:28:04 AM
Do you really think anyone (except for possibly Lieberman) would take him.

I think Lieberman might take some votes away from Blue and White, as he's singing a similar tune to Lapid.

I also think that overall Blue and White might set a record as the fastest and most spectacular crash of Israeli politics.

I think Feiglin will join with Bayit Yehudi and Bennett will join with Lieberman.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 30, 2019, 08:03:58 AM
I think Feiglin will join with Bayit Yehudi and Bennett will join with Lieberman.

Bennett might join Lieberman, but try as he may, I doubt anyone will accept Feiglin into their ranks.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzyul on May 30, 2019, 10:15:35 AM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.

And this is exactly what I "predicted".
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on June 30, 2019, 10:09:17 AM
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/06/israel-ehud-barak-benny-gantz-benjamin-netanyahu-elections.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on June 30, 2019, 10:23:00 AM
Anyone thinking that Netanyahu doesn't have a strategy vis-a-vis Gaza, is in total denial.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/06/palestine-qatari-grant-emadi-poor-families-israel-gaza-cash.html

Quote
“Israel closely monitors the lists of beneficiaries of the cash grant," he told Al-Monitor. "It removed about 5,000 families from the fifth tranche of its grant disbursed in May 13 and is now removing tens of thousands from the sixth tranche, prompting the Qatari ambassador to announce a change in the disbursement mechanism.”
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on July 01, 2019, 04:34:14 AM
Anyone thinking that Netanyahu doesn't have a strategy vis-a-vis Gaza, is in total denial.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/06/palestine-qatari-grant-emadi-poor-families-israel-gaza-cash.html

Strategy or not he is losing voters.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 01, 2019, 12:31:27 PM
Strategy or not he is losing voters.

At least that's what the masters of #FakeNews are telling you.

In the meantime, enjoy the following video I saw on a WhatsApp group:

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on July 29, 2019, 10:53:40 PM
Is there any update on the elections?
Did all the small groups on the right unite?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shimino1 on July 30, 2019, 02:08:43 AM
Is there any update on the elections?
Did all the small groups on the right unite?
No.
Only the two larger parties united.
There are still two small parties worth together 2-5 seats that are not part of the union.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 09:07:41 AM
Is there any update on the elections?
Did all the small groups on the right unite?

It's all irrelevant. Any way you slice things, Lieberman remains the most powerful guy. It doesn't seem like there's a way to keep him out. It could become interesting when no one will be able to form a coalition because of him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shimino1 on July 30, 2019, 10:21:24 AM
It's all irrelevant. Any way you slice things, Lieberman remains the most powerful guy. It doesn't seem like there's a way to keep him out. It could become interesting when no one will be able to form a coalition because of him.
He is not as relevant as he keeps telling everyone.

There are only four possible outcomes regarding Leiberman:
1. Likud + all the Religious/Chareidi parties get more then 61 seats and form a government without Liberman
2. Lieberman joins with Likud and the all religious/Chareidi parties to form a government
3. Blue and white + the deep left parties + Liberman + the Chareidim form a government
4. Likud and Blue and white form a government in which case either they don't need anyone else or they need another 5-10 seats in which case it is far more likely the chreidim join.

Any other scenario such as blue and white breaking up after the election or labor party joining a likud government would not require Leiberman's help.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 30, 2019, 01:26:56 PM
He is not as relevant as he keeps telling everyone.

There are only four possible outcomes regarding Leiberman:
1. Likud + all the Religious/Chareidi parties get more then 61 seats and form a government without Liberman
2. Lieberman joins with Likud and the all religious/Chareidi parties to form a government
3. Blue and white + the deep left parties + Liberman + the Chareidim form a government
4. Likud and Blue and white form a government in which case either they don't need anyone else or they need another 5-10 seats in which case it is far more likely the chreidim join.

Any other scenario such as blue and white breaking up after the election or labor party joining a likud government would not require Leiberman's help.

No way Lieberman and the Charedim sit together in a left-led coalition. Charedim would never do it.

Only options are Netanyahu + right wing + Charedim with or without lieberman or a unity government where lieberman's seats aren't as powerful.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 01:37:41 PM
He is not as relevant as he keeps telling everyone.

There are only four possible outcomes regarding Leiberman:
1. Likud + all the Religious/Chareidi parties get more then 61 seats and form a government without Liberman
2. Lieberman joins with Likud and the all religious/Chareidi parties to form a government
3. Blue and white + the deep left parties + Liberman + the Chareidim form a government
4. Likud and Blue and white form a government in which case either they don't need anyone else or they need another 5-10 seats in which case it is far more likely the chreidim join.

Any other scenario such as blue and white breaking up after the election or labor party joining a likud government would not require Leiberman's help.

Option 1 doesn't seem likely at all, unless by some miracle Lieberman doesn't cross the threshold to enter the Knesset.
Option 2 would require Lieberman to renege on everything, I don't think this is likely.
Option 3 won't happen as long as Lapid is there, and as far as Lieberman joining, see option 2.
Option 4 is the least unlikely of your scenarios, though I find it highly unlikely.

Blue and White breaking up could be a scenario, but they are well aware of that, and are preempting it, so it's not very likely as long as the breakup didn't occur prior to the election. Labor (which is likely to be renamed) might join (haven't seen yet if they pledged anything anti-Netanyahu).

But all you need to do is look at Greece, Belgium or even the UK and find out what political chaos in a parliamentary system means. I find this as the most likely outcome, and have no clue as to how it gets resolved.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 30, 2019, 02:10:25 PM
Option 1 doesn't seem likely at all, unless by some miracle Lieberman doesn't cross the threshold to enter the Knesset.
Option 2 would require Lieberman to renege on everything, I don't think this is likely.
Option 3 won't happen as long as Lapid is there, and as far as Lieberman joining, see option 2.
Option 4 is the least unlikely of your scenarios, though I find it highly unlikely.

Blue and White breaking up could be a scenario, but they are well aware of that, and are preempting it, so it's not very likely as long as the breakup didn't occur prior to the election. Labor (which is likely to be renamed) might join (haven't seen yet if they pledged anything anti-Netanyahu).

But all you need to do is look at Greece, Belgium or even the UK and find out what political chaos in a parliamentary system means. I find this as the most likely outcome, and have no clue as to how it gets resolved.

If the right votes efficiently (no Otzmah and no Zehut) they could get to 61 with Likud + Charedim. They were at 59/60 last time. The wildcard is where Liberman (who is projected to grow) grabs seats from.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 02:25:50 PM
If the right votes efficiently (no Otzmah and no Zehut) they could get to 61 with Likud + Charedim. They were at 59/60 last time. The wildcard is where Liberman (who is projected to grow) grabs seats from.

I don't think you are being realistic.

See for example: https://docs.google.com/gview?embedded=true&url=img.mako.co.il/2019/07/30/news12electionpoll.pdf&Partner=interlink
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on July 30, 2019, 03:33:16 PM
I don't think you are being realistic.

See for example: https://docs.google.com/gview?embedded=true&url=img.mako.co.il/2019/07/30/news12electionpoll.pdf&Partner=interlink

That actually proves his point. Zehut and Otzma are pulling 2.5% which is 3 seats. That puts the right/chareidim at 60

ETA: I should have looked past the second page ..
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 03:37:48 PM
That actually proves his point. Zehut and Otzma are pulling 2.5% which is 3 seats. That puts the right/chareidim at 60

How are you reading that into the poll? Zehut and Otzma aren't strong enough to cross the threshold. And when combined with other right wing parties, the balance of power remains more or less the same.

(https://i.imgur.com/yHoil3w.png)

The weakest link in this deadlock, and the one most likely to blink is whatever the former Labor party will be named. The people leading it supposedly care mostly about socioeconomic issues, and might be somewhat aligned with Shas in those areas. They also have shown a history of signing up with whoever will take them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 30, 2019, 04:26:24 PM
How are you reading that into the poll? Zehut and Otzma aren't strong enough to cross the threshold. And when combined with other right wing parties, the balance of power remains more or less the same.

(https://i.imgur.com/yHoil3w.png)

The weakest link in this deadlock, and the one most likely to blink is whatever the former Labor party will be named. The people leading it supposedly care mostly about socioeconomic issues, and might be somewhat aligned with Shas in those areas. They also have shown a history of signing up with whoever will take them.

The Chareidim are always the weakest link.

The issue is I can't see them in a coalition with Lapid and Lieberman who both want army service. So whatever labor is won't be big enough to tip a coalition.

Would the new right join blue and white, former labor, and Lieberman if they got 61? Who knows? It's going to be messy if the right + Chareidim don't hit 61 in any outcome, and it's the "fault" of a lot of people.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 04:41:52 PM
The Chareidim are always the weakest link.
-1


The issue is I can't see them in a coalition with Lapid and Lieberman who both want army service. So whatever labor is won't be big enough to tip a coalition.

Would the new right join blue and white, former labor, and Lieberman if they got 61? Who knows? It's going to be messy if the right + Chareidim don't hit 61 in any outcome, and it's the "fault" of a lot of people.

With the Arabs + Lieberman potentially holding over 20 seats, it's deadlock all over again between the pro-Bibi and anti-Bibi camps. It is political chaos. Greece has seen it, the UK is seeing it (in regards to Brexit), and other parliamentary systems have seen it. It isn't pretty and it can drag on for a long time.

If Otzma and Noam join together will they cross the threshold? That's anyone's guess, and it's a dangerous move. At this point it's all speculation at least until the lists/parties are finalized by the end of this week. But the big picture remains that Lieberman and the Arabs wield the most power.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 30, 2019, 04:43:43 PM
-1


With the Arabs + Lieberman potentially holding over 20 seats, it's deadlock all over again between the pro-Bibi and anti-Bibi camps. It is political chaos. Greece has seen it, the UK is seeing it (in regards to Brexit), and other parliamentary systems have seen it. It isn't pretty and it can drag on for a long time.

If Otzma and Noam join together will they cross the threshold? That's anyone's guess, and it's a dangerous move. At this point it's all speculation at least until the lists/parties are finalized by the end of this week. But the big picture remains that Lieberman and the Arabs wield the most power.
I think the Chareidim will join any coalition that let's them keep the army status quo + money, and save face on religion and state.

Why do you say they are anything but the weakest link?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 04:50:18 PM
I think the Chareidim will join any coalition that let's them keep the army status quo + money, and save face on religion and state.

Why do you say they are anything but the weakest link?

1. Lapid is persona non-grata! B&W + UTJ and/or SHAS is something that won't happen, because neither side will back off (B&W won't discard Lapid, and UTJ/SHAS won't accept anything where he has any say).

2. They have publicly pledged to support Netanyahu in the previous elections. While this is a new round, and they might be a little more cautious here, I doubt it will change. They also know that Netanyahu is by far more capable than any of the other clowns. I think his successor might end up being Barkat, but that's years down the road, not now. If Israel would have direct personal election of the Prime Minister, Netanyahu would win it even if he stayed silent the entire campaign.

OTOH Amir Peretz and Orly Levi, they will jump on any opportunity given to them (I am not aware of any pledge they might have made one way or another). The other "option" would be a breakup of B&W. The sooner that happens, the better. It's a hodgepodge of opportunists and some talented people. It's the "leadership" of B&W that presents the biggest problem.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on July 30, 2019, 06:37:48 PM
Amir Peretz/Labor is refusing to state he won't sit with Netanyahu, so these elections end one of 3 ways:

1) Lieberman recommends Bibbi and Bibbi forms a govt with Peretz as Defense Minister and Lieberman crawling in.

2) Right has 60 without Lieberman and same happens, perhaps less for Peretz.

3) B&W get more seats than the Likud, Lieberman recommends Gantz, and there will be a left wing government.

3 is extremely unlikely considering the polls always underestimate the Likud, and if Lieberman causes a true left government he really is toast, no anti Haredi law will be significant enough to save him 
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on July 30, 2019, 06:40:15 PM
Additionally, Bibbi will never agree to any form of Gantz being prime minster, the Likud will never break up, and it appears very unlikely that B&W does before the govt is formed.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shimino1 on July 30, 2019, 06:53:03 PM
It is very possible that the right hits 61 without Liberman.
It happened in 2015.
It also would have happened in the past elections if Bennet + Zehut + Orly Levi hadn't thrown away over 300,000 right wing votes worth 4-6 seats.

For the 61 seat scenario to work you need the answer to two questions:
1. How stupid will the religious right wing parties be this time around?
2. If Liberman really does grow, where will his extra votes come from? Lapid's rabid chareidi haters or the "soft" right (Kachlon's old voters)?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on July 30, 2019, 07:04:10 PM
1. How stupid will the religious right wing parties be this time around?
The parties are in the final position now IMO. Question is RE the voters of Zehut & Otzma Yehudit.

2. If Liberman really does grow, where will his extra votes come from? Lapid's rabid chareidi haters or the "soft" right (Kachlon's old voters)?

The polls are very clearly showing the second. But in all likelihood they are underestimating the Likud again as always, and Bibbi will manage to snag a bit from Lieberman by bringing Putin to Israel etc.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on July 31, 2019, 12:14:42 AM
Are Eli Yishai and Amnon Yitzchok still a factor?
Will they be wasting any right votes?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 31, 2019, 10:10:52 AM
It is very possible that the right hits 61 without Liberman.
It happened in 2015.
It also would have happened in the past elections if Bennet + Zehut + Orly Levi hadn't thrown away over 300,000 right wing votes worth 4-6 seats.

For the 61 seat scenario to work you need the answer to two questions:
1. How stupid will the religious right wing parties be this time around?
2. If Liberman really does grow, where will his extra votes come from? Lapid's rabid chareidi haters or the "soft" right (Kachlon's old voters)?
Lieberman is polling better than last time around... If his goal was to pretend to hate the draft deferments to become a king maker, it's working.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 31, 2019, 10:15:29 AM
Lieberman is polling better than last time around... If his goal was to pretend to hate the draft deferments to become a king maker, it's working.
Or the actual king.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on July 31, 2019, 10:37:25 AM
Amir Peretz/Labor is refusing to state he won't sit with Netanyahu, so these elections end one of 3 ways:

1) Lieberman recommends Bibbi and Bibbi forms a govt with Peretz as Defense Minister and Lieberman crawling in.

2) Right has 60 without Lieberman and same happens, perhaps less for Peretz.

3) B&W get more seats than the Likud, Lieberman recommends Gantz, and there will be a left wing government.

3 is extremely unlikely considering the polls always underestimate the Likud, and if Lieberman causes a true left government he really is toast, no anti Haredi law will be significant enough to save him

THREE WILL NEVER HAPPEN!!! The left cannot form a govt because there are many MK's in Blue and White that would never ever sit with the arabs regardless if it means Bibi winning.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 31, 2019, 10:42:47 AM
THREE WILL NEVER HAPPEN!!! The left cannot form a govt because there are many MK's in Blue and White that would never ever sit with the arabs regardless if it means Bibi winning.

There are several reasons why it won't happen. Not the least of them is that Lieberman, no matter what he does end up doing, won't join B&W without another LARGE party being part of it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on July 31, 2019, 10:49:55 AM
There are several reasons why it won't happen. Not the least of them is that Lieberman, no matter what he does end up doing, won't join B&W without another LARGE party being part of it.

And Lieberman would never ever sit with the Joint List, which then means they need to bring in the Charedi parties which would then bring us back to the original problem.

The most likely scenario is Likud forming something with Labor/Unified Right/Charedim as was mentioned above
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 31, 2019, 10:57:24 AM
And Lieberman would never ever sit with the Joint List, which then means they need to bring in the Charedi parties which would then bring us back to the original problem.

The most likely scenario is Likud forming something with Labor/Unified Right/Charedim as was mentioned above

Which is what I said, but if Labor (or whatever it will be named) doesn't cross the threshold, or won't play ball (unlikely IMHO, given the history of the individuals) we're back at political chaos.

Whichever way you slice things, B&W is an unworkable hodgepodge that was put together by elements that are constantly seeking ways to topple Netanyahu. They failed with their V15 initiative, and bez"h will fail again.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 31, 2019, 12:03:15 PM
Which is what I said, but if Labor (or whatever it will be named) doesn't cross the threshold, or won't play ball (unlikely IMHO, given the history of the individuals) we're back at political chaos.

Whichever way you slice things, B&W is an unworkable hodgepodge that was put together by elements that are constantly seeking ways to topple Netanyahu. They failed with their V15 initiative, and bez"h will fail again.
I think some sort of unity government involving B&W splitting up is most likely, or Lieberman and the Chareidim find a way to come up with a compromise where both sides can claim a victory (maybe that drafing starts in 4 years and suddenly the government disolves after 3.5).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 31, 2019, 12:43:40 PM
https://youtu.be/ELZ83LN4Mow

This video is gold. Watch how after arguing, all of a sudden when faced with a tough question at 0:14 he swiftly turns his head away and walks away.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 01, 2019, 12:36:27 PM
Lieberman seems to agree with me that Labor is the weakest link in the opposition to Netanyahu.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shimino1 on August 01, 2019, 02:01:40 PM
Lieberman seems to agree with me that Labor is the weakest link in the opposition to Netanyahu.
I really hope you don't start spewing as much garbage as Liberman does. So far he has been wrong most of the time.
In the days leading to the last election he promised in interviews that he will get at least 10 seats.
Previously he has promised to pass a death penalty for terrorists, promised to strip "unloyal" Arab citizens of their citizenship, promised public transportation on Shabbos, promised civil marriage, promised to destroy Hamas, promised to kill the Hamas head and on and on and on.

He is a liar and a politician who can only grab power, not pass reforms.
I doubt very much that the end results will resemble the current polls or that Liberman will be a kingmaker after the next elections.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 01, 2019, 05:38:07 PM
The parties are in the final position now IMO
8) 8) 8)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 01, 2019, 05:39:53 PM
There are several reasons why it won't happen. Not the least of them is that Lieberman, no matter what he does end up doing, won't join B&W without another LARGE party being part of it.
I'm not so convinced. His other option is crawling in to Bibbi and being ridiculed for eternity. Gantz having not better alternative may go so far as giving him a rotation for PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 01, 2019, 05:42:16 PM
THREE WILL NEVER HAPPEN!!! The left cannot form a govt because there are many MK's in Blue and White that would never ever sit with the arabs regardless if it means Bibi winning.


Rabin formed a gov't of 50 with support from the Arabs outside. I wonder if the Arabs won't support Bibbi though, Gantz is no better for them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 01, 2019, 05:46:18 PM
Which is what I said, but if Labor (or whatever it will be named) doesn't cross the threshold, or won't play ball (unlikely IMHO, given the history of the individuals) we're back at political chaos.
True, but Labor will for sure cross the threshold, they have a strong generational base. And Peretz says he will join Bibbi if it comes to it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 07, 2019, 07:03:56 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/netanyahu-s-boxed-in-and-could-be-finished-at-next-election?srnd=premium
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 07, 2019, 07:08:59 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/netanyahu-s-boxed-in-and-could-be-finished-at-next-election?srnd=premium
Well written

'“If there is a result as we see in the polls today, there will be formidable pressure for a national unity government” yoking Likud and Blue and White, “and this can go through only without Netanyahu,” said Gayil Talshir, a senior lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “And he has no intention of leaving of his own will.”'

Not true IMO. Vast majority of the country is opposed to a national unity government. Most of the country is split into 2 groups Only Bibbi and Only Not Bibbi. Nobody wants a combination.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on August 07, 2019, 10:44:19 PM
Well written

'“If there is a result as we see in the polls today, there will be formidable pressure for a national unity government” yoking Likud and Blue and White, “and this can go through only without Netanyahu,” said Gayil Talshir, a senior lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “And he has no intention of leaving of his own will.”'

Not true IMO. Vast majority of the country is opposed to a national unity government. Most of the country is split into 2 groups Only Bibbi and Only Not Bibbi. Nobody wants a combination.
A unity government without bibi should satisfy the 45%+ who don't want bibi and its the only way to get rid of bibi.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on August 07, 2019, 10:49:04 PM
Just curious, if your not on the left, why would someone be anti bibi?
Isn’t it obvious that he’s close with Trump and that been very beneficial for Israel? Why not just keep him there till Trumps gone? Is it because of all the lawsuits against him? Is t cuz other politicians are power hungry and want their chance in the spot light?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 12, 2019, 02:31:44 PM
https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001297002
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ADG on August 12, 2019, 03:09:57 PM
Just curious, if your not on the left, why would someone be anti bibi?
Isn’t it obvious that he’s close with Trump and that been very beneficial for Israel? Why not just keep him there till Trumps gone? Is it because of all the lawsuits against him? Is t cuz other politicians are power hungry and want their chance in the spot light?

Switch these two words around and you got it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on August 12, 2019, 05:06:41 PM
I really don't see how a government will be formed...unless Labor sits with Likud + United Right + Chareidim.
I know pollsters all put the Arabs in left wing camp, it's just not accurate.
So you have ~53-55 for the right wing camp
10 for Lieberman
~45 for left wing camp
And 11 for Arab

The math just doesn't add up. Crazy country
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 12, 2019, 05:16:30 PM
I really don't see how a government will be formed...unless Labor sits with Likud + United Right + Chareidim.
I know pollsters all put the Arabs in left wing camp, it's just not accurate.
So you have ~53-55 for the right wing camp
10 for Lieberman
~45 for left wing camp
And 11 for Arab

The math just doesn't add up. Crazy country

I've been saying this for a while.

Though one never knows what will happen with politics. There can always be surprises. Depending on how parties harp on this, I really think Motti Steinmetz could become a game-changer.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on August 12, 2019, 05:33:47 PM
I've been saying this for a while.

Though one never knows what will happen with politics. There can always be surprises. Depending on how parties harp on this, I really think Motti Steinmetz could become a game-changer.
I don't think Motti Steinmetz will have any effect
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 12, 2019, 05:49:19 PM
I don't think Motti Steinmetz will have any effect

Possibly. It depends on how things play out, and how different parties/politicians/press harp on it. So far, I think it might have had the effect of causing Smotritch to lose respect by some. He seems to be acting immaturely. I think that if played correctly, Lapid and Lieberman's responses could cause some moderate (or "sane" in Israeli parlance) people who contemplated voting for them switching their vote elsewhere.

It would be interesting if UTJ would be able to pull off a TV ad over this, not in order to bring votes to them, but rather in order to cause people to withdraw votes from radical anti-Yiddishkeit elements such as Lapid, Lieberman, and possibly others. With some good creative minds I think they could come up with a very effective message.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on August 12, 2019, 06:05:41 PM
Um...Is this even making a dent in mainstream Israel media? If not, how could it possibly effect anything.

It's only mentioned as a side-story to Smotrich's complaints about Netanyahu's handling of har habayis issue on Sunday
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 12, 2019, 06:15:31 PM
Um...Is this even making a dent in mainstream Israel media? If not, how could it possibly effect anything

I'm not there, so I can't really tell much from a distance (other than seeing that as of today it doesn't seem to be in Israeli MSM if news.google.co.il is any indication). It would be the greatest PR miss IMHO if they don't leverage it.

Now Hidbroot seems to be indicating that there is some MSM responses to this (https://www.hidabroot.org/article/1128109), but the fact that it's not on page 1 (though I would imagine that the Netanyahu-Smotritch meeting which is a fallout from this is) seems to indicate a PR miss. There's still the supreme court, but I hope they don't wait for that.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 12, 2019, 06:30:48 PM
It is all over the Israeli media.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 12, 2019, 11:50:38 PM
Is this MSM?

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on August 13, 2019, 04:45:24 AM
If Likud can start working on 5 MK's in B&W now they should be able to pull off a win without Lieberman.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 13, 2019, 05:00:47 AM
A unity government without bibi should satisfy the 45%+ who don't want bibi and its the only way to get rid of bibi.
Who's in the unity government without Bibbi? Frum won't. Arabs? That ain't unity.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on August 13, 2019, 06:48:33 AM
Who's in the unity government without Bibbi? Frum won't. Arabs? That ain't unity.

The unity Govt is Bibi+Gantz+Lieberman
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 13, 2019, 06:52:02 AM
The unity Govt is Bibi+Gantz+Lieberman

Ain't happening during our lifetime.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on August 13, 2019, 07:22:38 AM
The unity Govt is Likud without Bibi+Gantz+Lieberman

FTFY
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 13, 2019, 07:24:24 AM
FTFY

You've been drinking the kool-aid.

As all polls show, if it was a direct vote for PM Netanyahu vs anyone else would win in a landslide. When push comes to shove, everyone knows that of his opposition there's no one capable, let alone as capable as him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 15, 2019, 01:37:01 PM
Amazing! Ha'aretz actually dares to publish something that everyone knows. Gantz is simply incompetent.

Quote
בעיה ושמה גנץ
אורי משגב 15.08.2019 02:00
בנסיבות אחרות היה אפשר למצוא בבני גנץ איכויות קומיות ראויות לציון. נטייתו לומר דבר והיפוכו, ובעיקר לא להגיד כלום על שום דבר. הריטואל הקבוע, שבו הוא מסתבך ומתפתל סביב שאלת החבירה לבנימין נתניהו, ואז ננזף מפי חבריו ופרסומאיו ונשלח בבהילות למקצה שיפורים. כישוריו המופלאים בשיבוש ביטויים ופתגמים ("אם בארזים נפלה שלכת", "נתניהו הציע לי חצי עולם ומלואו", "בנפול אויבך אל תירא", "מפלגת כחול איתן").

מעט כבד דיבור, קצת כבד שמיעה. פעם יש בעיה עם יונית באוזנייה, ופעם זו האוזן של האם–16. אנושי, לפעמים כמעט מכמיר לב, בחור טוב במובן הרע של המלה, ברוח האבחנה המרושעת של משה דיין. והכל בניגוד מוצהר לקו הלסת התקיף, למבט הכחול החודר ולקומה הזקופה. אלא שבזמן הזה, במקום הזה, כבר מדובר בדמות קומית־טרגית. זה לא באמת מצחיק, ואף יכול לקרב אדם לידי דמעות של תסכול.

לפני הבחירות הקודמות, כנשאל גנץ בדבר התעקשותו על ההובלה, יוחסה לו אמירה נבונה: אתה יכול להיות רמטכ"ל לשעבר רק פעם אחת. אלא שהפעם ההיא חלפה. לכאורה נכפו הבחירות החוזרות על כחול לבן; המפלגה התנגדה לפיזור הכנסת, בשם הממלכתיות והסלידה המוצדקת מתרגילי נתניהו. בפועל קיבלו המפלגה ואחיותיה לאופוזיציה, באדיבות אביגדור ליברמן, הזדמנות פז: מועד ב', ובתנאים משופרים.

כל זאת אחרי שנתניהו במצוקתו ותבהלתו ערב הבחירות ואחריהן הוריד את כל המסכות: חתירה לעסקת חסינות בניגוד להבטחותיו. זלזול בדמוקרטיה. בחישה בימין הקיצוני והפעלת כל כובד משקלו להכנסת הכהניסטים לכנסת. התמסרות לחרדים ולחרד"לים. בליעה חפוזה של "כולנו", תוך כדי אובדן מיידי של ארבעה מנדטים שהתחזו ל"ימין שפוי" ול"מרכז". מינויים ופיטורים בממשלת מעבר, בניגוד לכללים, כולל ליהוק שרים שהציבור הרחב סולד מהם (בצלאל סמוטריץ', רפי פרץ, דוד אמסלם). השתוללות בשליחותו במשרד המשפטים ובמשרד מבקר המדינה.

כל אלה היו יכולים לשמש חומר תבערה אלקטורלי — אם לא להעברת מאסות של קולות, לפחות להפחת רוח חיים ורוח לחימה במחנה המתנגד לנתניהו והנעתו לפעולה. אבל גנץ בעיקר מכבה. בלשון עכשווית, הוא בא להוריד.

גנץ מרבה להתפאר שכחול לבן היא סיפור, אבל בהנהגתו מאפיין אותה דווקא חוסר היכולת להציע משהו ביחס למשהו. לא תוכנית מדינית, לא תפישה כלכלית, לא התחייבות כלשהי בנושאי דת ומדינה, לא נקיטת עמדה בשום סוגיה הנמצאת על הפרק או עולה על סדר היום התזזיתי. מפלגת סטטוס קוו, משותקת מזעם הבוחר, משובצת גנרלים עטורי קרבות, הנזהרים שלא להרגיז איש. זו בעיקר פלטפורמה, שנתפרה אד־הוק להחלפת נתניהו — מטרה ראויה, ואפילו קדושה — אך לא ממש ברור בשם מה.

בולט במיוחד היחס התמוה והאמביוולנטי של גנץ לנתניהו. כאן התמוה כבר נהפך לתימהוני. אפילו חרפת ועדת ההיתרים לא הטרידה את מנוחתו השבוע. כשמזכירים לו שהוא אינו אמור לשבת עם נתניהו, ולא חשוב מה סדר הישיבה, הוא מתעשת ונתלה בסיבה יחידה: כתבי האישום שאינם מאפשרים לנתניהו לתפקד. גנץ נהנה להצהיר שאין לו שום בעיה אישית עם נתניהו.

אלא שלהמוני ישראלים יש ויש בעיה אישית עם נתניהו. מושחת ומשחית, מסית ומסיט, הוא מחריב את המדינה שלהם, ולפעמים מוציא להם את החשק לחיות בה. הם מביטים בכיליון עיניים אל מי שמתיימר להוביל את המחנה שלהם, ואז משפילים מבט.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 19, 2019, 01:03:25 PM
https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-5571532,00.html

Quote
מה יש בהופעתו של גנץ המקנה לו יתרון על פני אחרים? הנוכחות האמינה והרגועה שלו. גם כאשר גמגם את היו-יו-יונית הוא עשה זאת בנינוחות ובלי להתעצבן. אם מורידים את הווליום של הקטע הזה, מתקבל מנהיג שאפשר לסמוך עליו.
 
זהו יכול להיות גם ההסבר מדוע הוא עדיין מקבל בסקרים את הנתונים הגבוהים ביותר במידת התאמתו לכהן כראש ממשלה, אחרי נתניהו. יותר מאשר חבריו בצמרת כחול לבן וראשי מפלגות השמאל.

Though they are ignoring the fact, that even though he's ahead of his peers, he still significantly lags Netanyahu, something that wasn't necessarily true in the Rabin-Shamir match-up.


And here's the important quote (in context):
Quote
מחנה המרכז-שמאל ממשיך ברובו לתמוך בגנץ למרות הקריצה שלו ימינה והטענה שאינו יודע להתראיין. המודל של המצביעים האלה הוא כנראה יצחק רבין, שגמגם ופזל לבוחרי הליכוד, אבל לאחר מכן עשה את הדבר הנכון.

The context being:
Quote
המראה האמין יכול לחפות גם על התבטאויות לא אמינות. רבין שבר ימינה בבחירות 1992 ואימץ את תוכנית האוטונומיה של הליכוד, שמשמעותה הייתה שלא לצאת משטחי יהודה ושומרון. הוא גם הכריז ש"לא נרד מרמת הגולן" אם יהיה הסכם עם הסורים. את צבעי הקמפיין של "העבודה" שהיו תמיד באדום, הוא החליף לכחול לבן.

אבל זמן קצר מאוד לאחר בחירתו רבין הוא הוביל לחתימת הסכם אוסלו שלפיו ישראל יצאה משטחים מרכזיים בגדה המערבית וניהל מו"מ עם חאפז אל אסד שבו נידונה האפשרות שישראל תיסוג לשפת הכינרת. זה לא פגע באמינותו שלו משום שבמחנה שלו התייחסו אל אמירותיו בבחירות כצורך טקטי. הם האמינו שלאחר הבחירות הוא יפעל לפי רוח המחנה, מה שאכן קרה בפועל.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 20, 2019, 12:25:33 PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 20, 2019, 12:48:53 PM
Amazing! Ha'aretz actually dares to publish something that everyone knows. Gantz is simply incompetent.
Ha'aretz is an excellent newspaper. It may be biased towards one point of view but it covers both.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 22, 2019, 12:09:39 PM
This is amazing.

Netanyahu can probably take this with a shoestring campaign budget.

זכה, נעשית מלאכתו בידי אחרים.

All he needs to do is let his opponents talk (or keep silent, either way they make their own case less and less compelling - when they talk, they reveal their incompetence and/or true colors, when they keep silent, everyone questions their competence).

Now he has an Arab MK saying he might consider joining a Gantz coalition.

Anyone that can put 2 and 2 together realizes that somehow, somewhere the forces (and major money) behind B&W and a few other things happening is coming from the same sources as the V15 organization. They failed then, and bez"h will fail again.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 22, 2019, 04:16:04 PM
You can't make up this stuff.  Gantz really thought he could leverage a bochur wearing a Yechi Yarmulka?

https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1025797

All Netanyahu needs to do is remain mum. The left will keep on generating their own blunders.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on August 22, 2019, 04:29:29 PM
a Yechi Yarmulka?

What does that have to do with anything?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 22, 2019, 04:46:48 PM
What does that have to do with anything?

Know your customers. Someone wearing such a Yarmulka (if he's of voting age) is likely to vote for UTJ, Otzma (Ben-Gvir), or Yamina (though I think the last two are less likely), none of which support Gantz.

It would be like using a soundbite of Yankel Litzman claiming he supports B&W.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 22, 2019, 06:58:53 PM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/685005

Taken with a grain of salt, given the bias of the source, but here's an interesting snippet:

Quote
נתון זה לא נכון לגבי מצביעי ישראל ביתנו, המעדיפים ברוב של 51% ממשלת אחדות של הליכוד וכחול לבן. גם בוחרי כחול לבן מעדיפים שיתוף עם הליכוד. 54% ממצביעיהם אמרו כי הם מעדיפים ממשלה בהרכב זה.

Essentially saying that a majority of B&W voters (and Lieberman voters) want the Likud in (shared) power, vs having B&W in power and Likud out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 24, 2019, 10:51:29 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/24/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-election.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 25, 2019, 10:15:35 AM
The left will keep on tripping themselves and handing it to Bibi on a silver platter.

https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/685413
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 25, 2019, 01:27:03 PM
Extreme left wing writer op-ed in Ha'aretz:

Quote
רק לא כחול לבן
גדעון לוי 25.08.2019 02:00
הצביעו שמאל, הצביעו ימין — רק אל תצביעו כלום. הכלום של כחול לבן הוא לא סתם כלום, הוא כלום הרסני. הוא חונק כל סיכוי לאלטרנטיבה ומצמית כל תקווה לשינוי. ראשי הכלום הזה מאיימים שהסבב הבא בעזה יהיה "הסבב האחרון" ומתנערים מהמתון שבמנהיגים של ערביי ישראל, כאילו היה מצורע. אם זו החלופה לשלטון הימין — עדיף המקור. נכון שהם יותר נחמדים ופחות מושחתים, אין ספק שיחוללו כמה שינויים שישנו את האווירה בישראל. אבל הם כבר הוכיחו מעל לכל ספק שכל אימת שצריך לנקוט עמדה בנושא שאינו פופוליסטי כמו הקמת בתי חולים, אלא בעניין שנוי במחלוקת כמו מלחמה ושלום, הם תמיד יבחרו בעמדות הימין. ננו־תהום של מיקרונים פעורה ביניהם לבין הליכוד כשזה מגיע לשאלות היסוד. כחול לבן רק ימהרו יותר להוביל את ישראל לעוד מלחמה נפשעת וחסרת תוחלת.

תגובתם המחפירה של ראשי כחול לבן על דבריו של איימן עודה הייתה הראיה הניצחת לפחדנותם או לימניותם, לא ברור מה גרוע ממה. מותר להניח שראשי כחול לבן מסכימים לכאורה למרבית התנאים התיאורטיים שהציב עודה להצטרפות לממשלה, רק פחדנותם שמא יצטיירו באור שמאלני מדי דחפה אותם לתגובה המתנערת, שהציבה אותם לימין "עוצמה יהודית". אבל נזקי ההסתה שלהם גדולים לאין שיעור מאלו של "עוצמה יהודית": כשיאיר לפיד או גבי אשכנזי מתנערים מעודה כמו מפני מחלה, הם משפיעים בהסתה שלהם על הזרם המרכזי בחברה הישראלית, לא על נערי הגבעות.

גם הדיבור החלול על "סבב אחרון" ועל "החזרת ההרתעה" הוכיח שהכלום בכחול לבן הוא רק עוד ועוד ימין, ללא שום מותר על הליכוד. הסבב הבא שלהם בעזה לא יהיה האחרון וגם לא הלפני־לפני האחרון, כי בדיוק כמו הליכוד הם מציעים רק כוח ועוד כוח, וכמה עצמות להרגעת הרעב. ככה יהיו עוד אינסוף סבבים. ראשי כחול לבן יודעים מהו הפתרון היחיד לעזה, זה שאין להם בדל אומץ להציעו. כמה מהם הרגו בה לא מעט, דם פלסטיני רב על ידיהם, והם יודעים לאן כל זה הוביל בעבר, ולאן זה תמיד יוביל גם בעתיד.

הם גם יודעים עד כמה נבוב הוא הדיבור על הרתעה, כשהייאוש הוא הכוח המניע. כשצעיר פלסטיני מניח מטען במעיין שנשדד מכפרו, הוא יודע שבכך הוא הורס את חייו ואת חיי משפחתו — והוא לא נרתע. שום דבר גם לא ירתיע אותו, זולת התקווה למציאות אחרת. הדקלומים על הרתעה הם לפחדנים ולפופוליסטים, כמו אלו של כחול לבן. אמיצים היו מדברים על פתרון אמת, על הסרת המצור על עזה ועל סיום הכיבוש בגדה. זולת אלה אין פתרונות. אבל זה כבר גדול על כחול לבן המייאשת בכמה מספרים.

כחול לבן מציעה שלטון גנרלים. כמי שהעבירו את מרבית חייהם בקסרקטינים הם מכירים רק שפה אחת, שפת הכוח, ורק שני סוגי ערבים, המחבל או המשת"פ. הם גם יודעים מעט מאוד על החיים בישראל. הם היו עסוקים בשיטור ובמלחמות. איש משלושת הגנרלים המובילים בכחול לבן לא הרחיב את תמונת העולם שלו אל מעבר לכך. הדיבור העילג שלהם רק מעיד על כך. התוספת האזרחית של לפיד רק גורעת: הוא הפוליטיקאי הפופוליסטי ביותר בישראל כיום. "הרתעה משיגים בדרך אחת — בכוח. בהרבה כוח ובכוח לא פרופורציונלי", התרברב שלשום המאצ'ו דל לה שמאטה מרמת אביב ג' וסימן את גבולות הגזרה של הסיכוי לשינוי בישראל: אפס.

ביבי או טיבי? טיבי, בלא היסוס; ביבי או בני גנץ? ביבי, בהיסוס.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 29, 2019, 12:33:05 PM
Major positive development.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-netanyahu-clears-major-obstacle-in-bid-sweep-right-wing-voters-1.7767145

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/feiglin-officially-withdraws-his-far-right-zehut-party-from-elections/

Now he needs to clear Otzma and Noam.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 07:23:16 AM
Wow pretty intense in ג HQ
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 01:27:22 PM
Higher voter tonight....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Sammy82 on September 17, 2019, 02:14:35 PM
How long till results start rolling in?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 02:32:45 PM
How long till results start rolling in?

Polls close 10pm (3pm EDT) with some exceptions of a few stations that got an extension to midnight. Once polls close media channels projections will be published.



https://www.mako.co.il/tv/Article-3bf5c3a8e967f51006.htm

https://www.ynet.co.il/home/0,7340,L-8,00.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 17, 2019, 03:08:00 PM
Who is favored by the polls?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on September 17, 2019, 03:10:29 PM
Who is favored by the polls?
I'm not sure, but I think with Israel in general you need to assume it's the opposite of what the exit polls show...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 03:16:28 PM
Its officially very tight
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: BP16 on September 17, 2019, 03:22:58 PM
Its officially very tight
What happens if neither could form a government again? 
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 03:23:40 PM
What happens if neither could form a government again?
Unity netanyahu-ganz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 17, 2019, 03:25:01 PM
What happens if neither could form a government again? 
Unity government or another redo.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 17, 2019, 03:28:22 PM
Unity government or another redo.
Based on exit polls, either that or the Chareidim and Lieberman make a deal.

Can't see another redo this time.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 03:29:30 PM
Based on exit polls, either that or the Chareidim and Lieberman make a deal.

Can't see another redo this time.
Thats only if netanyahu gets offered to be PM...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 03:29:57 PM
I'm not sure, but I think with Israel in general you need to assume it's the opposite of what the exit polls show...
The problem is that there's no opposite. Either way you slice it it's not a workable situation unless B&W breaks up (unlikely at this point IMHO).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 17, 2019, 03:33:34 PM
The problem is that there's no opposite. Either way you slice it it's not a workable situation unless B&W breaks up (unlikely at this point IMHO).
A Likud breakup might be more likely if gantz is allowed by rivlin to attempt to form a government. B&W, Lieberman, and a portion of Likud could get to 61 without anyone else.

Throw in Yamina for pledges in the settlements, and you're there with less than half of Likud splitting.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 03:37:44 PM
A Likud breakup might be more likely if gantz is allowed by rivlin to attempt to form a government. B&W, Lieberman, and a portion of Likud could get to 61 without anyone else.

Throw in Yamina for pledges in the settlements, and you're there with less than half of Likud splitting.
Likud isn't breaking up.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 03:39:57 PM
Likud isn't breaking up.
Bibi might back off and the number 2 will make the unity
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 03:44:02 PM
Bibi might back off and the number 2 will make the unity
Highly unlikely IMHO. Also who is #2?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 03:44:47 PM
Highly unlikely IMHO. Also who is #2?
Their going to have internal elections
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 03:46:13 PM
Their going to have internal elections
Now?  ::) ::) ::) ::)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 03:53:03 PM
As ballot boxes are counted, results will be posted here: https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 04:16:56 PM
Lieberman seems to agree with me that Labor is the weakest link in the opposition to Netanyahu.

Can't forget this important tidbit.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 17, 2019, 05:40:59 PM
So...who's up for round 3?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 17, 2019, 05:44:16 PM
I really don't see how a government will be formed...unless Labor sits with Likud + United Right + Chareidim.
I know pollsters all put the Arabs in left wing camp, it's just not accurate.
So you have ~53-55 for the right wing camp
10 for Lieberman
~45 for left wing camp
And 11 for Arab

The math just doesn't add up. Crazy country
Spot on (except take 2 from Lieberman and give them to the left
Still a crazy country
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 17, 2019, 05:47:42 PM
So right now there are only 2 paths to a government
1. Likud + Yamina + Chareidim + Labor
2. Likud + Blue/White
I don't know which is more unlikely. Especially since if Likud doesn't have more mandates than Blue/White no way Netanyahu sits under Gantz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 07:49:06 PM
How come last time around at this hour there was over 50 percent of the vote counted and now I see nothing?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 07:50:04 PM
How come last time around at this hour there was over 50 percent of the vote counted and now I see nothing?
Website isn't updated.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 07:52:18 PM
That's my question. Why?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 07:53:54 PM
That's my question. Why?

Maybe less people working night shift.  Attitude is different than last time around.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 07:59:16 PM
Se were not gonna have any official election night results until tomorrow?  :o

What a country!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 08:00:14 PM
Se were not gonna have any official election night results until tomorrow?  :o

What a country!
Certified results are due on the 25th.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 17, 2019, 08:04:28 PM
Soldiers get counted last. Often bumps the right up by a bit, maybe a seat.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: justaregularguy on September 17, 2019, 08:14:05 PM
i read in some live blog the results are coming in much slower and wont be fully official until wednesday afternoon
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 08:40:38 PM
https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=6100
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 08:47:19 PM
i read in some live blog the results are coming in much slower and wont be fully official until wednesday afternoon
i understand that. official results always take a few day. but now we have no idea whats going on other than the phony exit polls.

can you share a link?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 08:49:52 PM
https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=3000

What's up with J'lem? So many votes for super fringe parties that no-one even mentions!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 08:52:31 PM
Finally. 5% in.

שם הרשימה   אותיות הרשימה   אחוז קולות הרשימה
מסה"כ הקולות הכשרים   מספר הקולות הכשרים לרשימה
הליכוד בהנהגת בנימין נתניהו לראשות הממשלה   מחל   31.15%   104,169
כחול לבן - בראשות בני גנץ ויאיר לפיד   פה   24.67%   82,500
ישראל ביתנו בראשות אביגדור ליברמן   ל   9.75%   32,607
התאחדות הספרדים שומרי התורה תנועתו של מרן הרב עובדיה יוסף זצ"ל   שס   9.19%   30,719
יהדות התורה והשבת אגודת ישראל - דגל התורה   ג   6.22%   20,788
ימינה בראשות איילת שקד הבית היהודי-האיחוד הלאומי-הימין החדש   טב   5.71%   19,094
העבודה - גשר בראשות עמיר פרץ ואורלי לוי אבקסיס   אמת   5.01%   
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 08:57:03 PM
IMHO the big mistake of Likud and possibly even Shas and UTJ is in not championing for civil issues of the Arab population. There are plenty of decent Arabs in the country, and one of the reasons for the traditionally low turnout in the Arab sector is that the Arab parties are all extreme left, and care more about Palestinians than of real civil issues that matter to the Israeli population. In the past (before Deri went to jail, IINM) Shas managed to get some nice votes amongst Arabs.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 09:01:35 PM
Am I missing something? Tel Aviv only has 15,230 eligible voters?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 09:03:01 PM
Updated.  Is it too early for ליכוד to celebrate?

הליכוד בהנהגת בנימין נתניהו לראשות הממשלה   מחל   30.50%   198,867
כחול לבן - בראשות בני גנץ ויאיר לפיד   פה   23.60%   153,896
התאחדות הספרדים שומרי התורה תנועתו של מרן הרב עובדיה יוסף זצ"ל   שס   9.14%   59,603
ישראל ביתנו בראשות אביגדור ליברמן   ל   9.00%   58,699
יהדות התורה והשבת אגודת ישראל - דגל התורה   ג   6.79%   44,271
ימינה בראשות איילת שקד הבית היהודי-האיחוד הלאומי-הימין החדש   טב   6.09%   39,746
העבודה - גשר בראשות עמיר פרץ ואורלי לוי אבקסיס   אמת   4.91%   32,042
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on September 17, 2019, 09:07:18 PM
Updated.  Is it too early for ליכוד to celebrate?

הליכוד בהנהגת בנימין נתניהו לראשות הממשלה   מחל   30.50%   198,867
כחול לבן - בראשות בני גנץ ויאיר לפיד   פה   23.60%   153,896
התאחדות הספרדים שומרי התורה תנועתו של מרן הרב עובדיה יוסף זצ"ל   שס   9.14%   59,603
ישראל ביתנו בראשות אביגדור ליברמן   ל   9.00%   58,699
יהדות התורה והשבת אגודת ישראל - דגל התורה   ג   6.79%   44,271
ימינה בראשות איילת שקד הבית היהודי-האיחוד הלאומי-הימין החדש   טב   6.09%   39,746
העבודה - גשר בראשות עמיר פרץ ואורלי לוי אבקסיס   אמת   4.91%   32,042
That's about 20% of the actual vote...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 10:01:56 PM
That's about 20% of the actual vote...
Was actually 10%. 20% is in now.


6,394,030   1,179,824   18.45%   1,173,129   6,695
שם הרשימה   אותיות הרשימה   אחוז קולות הרשימה
מסה"כ הקולות הכשרים   מספר הקולות הכשרים לרשימה
הליכוד בהנהגת בנימין נתניהו לראשות הממשלה   מחל   29.19%   342,471
כחול לבן - בראשות בני גנץ ויאיר לפיד   פה   24.38%   286,028
התאחדות הספרדים שומרי התורה תנועתו של מרן הרב עובדיה יוסף זצ"ל   שס   8.98%   105,364
ישראל ביתנו בראשות אביגדור ליברמן   ל   8.22%   96,385
יהדות התורה והשבת אגודת ישראל - דגל התורה   ג   7.59%   89,045
ימינה בראשות איילת שקד הבית היהודי-האיחוד הלאומי-הימין החדש   טב   7.08%   83,098
העבודה - גשר בראשות עמיר פרץ ואורלי לוי אבקסיס   אמת   4.97%   58,350
המחנה הדמוקרטי בהנהגת הורוביץ, שפיר וברק   מרצ   3.83%   44,988

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 17, 2019, 10:05:20 PM
IMHO the big mistake of Likud and possibly even Shas and UTJ is in not championing for civil issues of the Arab population. There are plenty of decent Arabs in the country, and one of the reasons for the traditionally low turnout in the Arab sector is that the Arab parties are all extreme left, and care more about Palestinians than of real civil issues that matter to the Israeli population. In the past (before Deri went to jail, IINM) Shas managed to get some nice votes amongst Arabs.


Like the dems ignoring blue collar voters absolutely. DSo many votes went to trump because middle America want jobs, not LGBT stuff. Im sure its the same wit Arab voters.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on September 17, 2019, 10:36:00 PM
Was actually 10%. 20% is in now.
20 % of actual votes or of eligible voters?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on September 17, 2019, 10:38:29 PM
20 % of actual votes or of eligible voters?
Of votes
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 17, 2019, 11:14:06 PM
So who won?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 11:15:25 PM
So who won?
No clear winner yet. Though there seem to be some clear losers.

United Arab Party seems to have done exceptionally well.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 17, 2019, 11:16:09 PM
United Arab Party seems to have done exceptionally well.
Say what?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 11:20:25 PM
Say what?
Exactly that. It is a union between 4 Arab parties that have little in common other than being Arab. Traditionally Arab turnout is low, because the general Arab population feels that the Arab parties don't really represent their issues, but a rather busy with regional and foreign policy issue (read: supporting Israel's Arab enemies such as Syria). However this time around it seems like Arab turnout was close to 50%.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: grodnoking on September 17, 2019, 11:31:05 PM
At 6.07 a.m., 1,912,015 votes had been counted – or 29.90% of the casted ballots.

The Central Election Committee published the first results based on counted votes. At 6.07 a.m., 1,912,015 votes had been counted – or 29.90% of the casted ballots.

According to the results, Likud received 27.78% of the votes, followed by Blue and White with 25.94%, Shas with 8.72%, Yisrael Beytenu with 7.68%, UTJ with 8.68% Yamina with 6.75%, Labor with 5.02%, the Democratic Union with 4,43%, the Joint Union with 1,89% and Otzma Yehudit with 2.26%.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 11:54:18 PM
Israel’s Channel 12 says it has received reports from sources in the Central Elections Committee, which reflect around 85% of the national vote.

The station says that according to those unofficial results, Netanyahu’s Likud and Gantz’s Blue and White are tied at 32 seats and that including minor parties, the right-wing bloc has a total of 56 seats, the centre-left has 55 and Liberman has 9.

Channel 12 says its sources tell it that a majority of votes have already been counted, but due to increased scrutiny, the CEC is doing recounts in order to ensure the information it puts out is accurate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 18, 2019, 02:37:20 AM
Shaked the biggest loser again. I'm actually shocked

3 paths to a coalition
1. Likud, yamina, chareidim, labor
2. Likud + blue/white with a rotation for PM? Who goes first? Can netanyahu even sit with gantz?
3. Blue white, Arabs, labor, Barak and Lieberman. What a disaster. Any chance that government lasts longer than six months?
Or round 3

Where do we go from here?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 18, 2019, 03:01:25 AM
Is Lieberman really the big winner? He can't sit with the right. He (presumably) can't sit with the left. And they don't need him for a unity government. What am I missing?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on September 18, 2019, 06:40:43 AM
Is Lieberman really the big winner? He can't sit with the right. He (presumably) can't sit with the left. And they don't need him for a unity government. What am I missing?
Seems like he only wanted to ruin bibi, and it seems like there’s a chance that might happen. Blue and white might sit with likud, if bibi isn’t PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ~King Lake~ on September 18, 2019, 07:44:56 AM
Seems like he only wanted to ruin bibi, and it seems like there’s a chance that might happen. Blue and white might sit with likud, if bibi isn’t PM
I can't see Bibi sitting in kneset without being PM/under gantz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: mgarfin on September 18, 2019, 07:48:06 AM
Chabad seems to have added a mass amount to utj
https://mobile.kikar.co.il/abroad/article/331124
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 08:34:13 AM
Can't forget this important tidbit.
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1032674

I guess I am not the only one that thinks so.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 08:45:34 AM
Exactly that. It is a union between 4 Arab parties that have little in common other than being Arab. Traditionally Arab turnout is low, because the general Arab population feels that the Arab parties don't really represent their issues, but a rather busy with regional and foreign policy issue (read: supporting Israel's Arab enemies such as Syria). However this time around it seems like Arab turnout was close to 50%.

http://econoblog.co.il/רעמ-תעל-בלד-חדש-דעם-מדריך-למצביע-המבו/

Try Google translate. Maybe it will produce something comprehensible. If it doesn't, I will try to summarize when have some time. Some of the comments seem to address inaccuracies.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 18, 2019, 08:51:25 AM
Shaked the biggest loser again. I'm actually shocked

3 paths to a coalition
1. Likud, yamina, chareidim, labor
2. Likud + blue/white with a rotation for PM? Who goes first? Can netanyahu even sit with gantz?
3. Blue white, Arabs, labor, Barak and Lieberman. What a disaster. Any chance that government lasts longer than six months?
Or round 3

Where do we go from here?

1. Do we really think that a neutered Labor would go into a coalition with Bibi?
2. If this happens, I suspect that one (or both) of these two things happens - a) Bibi's coalition deal will preclude him from being prosecuted even while he's not PM b) He'll get the first 1.5-2 years, and then 1 or 2 months shy find a way to force a new election

Is Lieberman really the big winner? He can't sit with the right. He (presumably) can't sit with the left. And they don't need him for a unity government. What am I missing?

Lieberman is in a weird position... what is the lesser of two evils for him - joining with Bibi or joining with the Arab List? If Gantz/Bibi want full control, they need to make a deal with him. But he himself is pushing for a Unity Government, which pretty much Gantz and Bibi can do on their own, and show him the door.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 18, 2019, 08:54:44 AM
If labor would be ready to go into coalition they wouldve done it last election already

UTJ/Shas are for sure not in the best position right now
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 08:56:16 AM
If labor would be ready to go into coalition they wouldve done it last election already

UTJ/Shas are for sure not in the best position right now
Labor is a different party now.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 18, 2019, 09:17:43 AM
If labor would be ready to go into coalition they wouldve done it last election already
I'm not sure that's a fair argument. Someone needs to blink. The country won't stand for another election.
Quote
UTJ/Shas are for sure not in the best position right now
It's crazy - they did as well as could have been expected and yet they still may get frozen out. I guess we'll see if the rabbonim's dire warnings come to be
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 11:09:19 AM
https://m.ynet.co.il/Articles/5591778
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 18, 2019, 11:11:18 AM
Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 11:19:48 AM
Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?
Because he can't.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 18, 2019, 11:22:00 AM
Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?

... b/c I think Lieberman is more likely to cave into Bibi's demands than sit in a government with the Arabs
It's crazy - they did as well as could have been expected and yet they still may get frozen out. I guess we'll see if the rabbonim's dire warnings come to be

Regarding Shas/UTJ - again everyone is digging in their heels.
https://m.ynet.co.il/Articles/5591778

 In the lede in to this article it quote R' Litzman as saying - ליצמן: "לא יודע מי זה ליברמן. מוכן לשבת איתו אם הוא יניח תפילין וישמור שבת" - "I'll only meet with Lieberman when he puts on tefilin and keeps shabbos".

One interesting thing to note - based on demographics alone, within the next 10 years the Charedi bloc can easily get to 25 seats - just on demographics alone. From that point, it would be hard to form any government without them.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 18, 2019, 11:55:46 AM
One interesting thing to note - based on demographics alone, within the next 10 years the Charedi bloc can easily get to 25 seats - just on demographics alone. From that point, it would be hard to form any government without them.
+1 In the last few years they went up 2 seats   and so did shas
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 12:20:13 PM
Brilliant first move. It's not B&W vs Likud, it's now B&W vs Right Wing Bloc.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 18, 2019, 02:17:28 PM
+1 In the last few years they went up 2 seats   and so did shas

Yes - but I believe that with the large Charedi Birth Rate and both the death of the true Israeli Left and the below replacement birthrates of the Secular community, They will get a big jump in the next decade or two.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: mercaz1 on September 18, 2019, 02:21:21 PM
so will the arabs as they also have a high birthrate
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 18, 2019, 02:22:56 PM
Brilliant first move. It's not B&W vs Likud, it's now B&W vs Right Wing Bloc.


It is a good move - that will increase the chances of a stalemate.

Peretz has said he won't sit with him. He still needs either Gantz or Lieberman to complete the the coalition. Lieberman will dig in on demands that this coalition can't meet. Gantz will only join in if he gets to share power.

Who else can join with him?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: BP16 on September 18, 2019, 02:24:13 PM
Labor is a different party now.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/269108
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 02:28:30 PM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/269108
BTDT.

Peretz has history.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amir_Peretz

Quote
He opposed Ehud Barak's decision to enter a coalition government headed by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu. In December 2012, he left the Labor Party to join Tzipi Livni's new Hatnuah party. As a result, he resigned from the Knesset, and was replaced by Yoram Marciano.

He was re-elected to the Knesset on the Hatnuah list in the 2013 elections, and was appointed Minister of Environmental Protection.

The only thing that changed is his shaving off his mustache.

This is how I see the playbook potentially unfolding:

Mandelblit holds hearing with Netanyahu, following which it is determined that there aren't sufficient grounds for an indictment, which gives a whole bunch of people (primary amongst them Peretz & Co) an explanation as to why they will join Netanyahu, as they said they won't join him as long as there's a pending indictment. Once there's no pending indictment, they can join.

This might also signal the breakup and demise of B&W whose sole raison d'๊tre is anti Bibi (ostensibly due to corruption).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 03:02:05 PM
https://www.inn.co.il/News/News.aspx/413349

This guy never minces words.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on September 18, 2019, 03:40:33 PM
Peretz has said he won't sit with him. He still needs either Gantz or Lieberman to complete the the coalition. Lieberman will dig in on demands that this coalition can't meet. Gantz will only join in if he gets to share power.

Who else can join with him?

What does Labor stand for? If they are focused on economic issues then Bibi can throw money at them to join the coalition, but if they are focused on the "peace process" I don't see how they can sit with the right wing parties.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 04:05:32 PM
THIS IS PRICELESS!!!!

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 18, 2019, 05:21:28 PM
IBG is an old friend, running alone tough wasted 75,301 votes so far.  Those votes to yamina / shas  likud etc would easily amount to 4-5 extra seats
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 18, 2019, 05:30:52 PM
IBG is an old friend, running alone tough wasted 75,301 votes so far.  Those votes to yamina / shas  likud etc would easily amount to 4-5 extra seats
How is that worth 4-5 extra seats? The smallest party that made it in has 173k so far and 5 seats. At best, it's 3 seats divided between those parties. More likely that some of those voters would either stay home or vote for a different party that isn't making it in. I think it's a cost of 1-2 seats maximum.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 05:40:46 PM
How is that worth 4-5 extra seats? The smallest party that made it in has 173k so far and 5 seats. At best, it's 3 seats divided between those parties. More likely that some of those voters would either stay home or vote for a different party that isn't making it in. I think it's a cost of 1-2 seats maximum.

Exactly.

IBG would have been fun to see in the Knesset, but he acted like a total A*****e in this round. It was obvious that he has no chance of getting in AND EVERYONE WHO CARED TO THINK ABOUT IT, KNEW IT. He should have swallowed his pride and accepted whatever Yemina offered him. He might have gotten in and might have not, but wouldn't have wasted so many votes.

https://www.inn.co.il/News/News.aspx/413349

This guy never minces words.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on September 18, 2019, 07:05:51 PM
@kolhaolam was reporting that the blue and white faction has 56 seats. Is that’s including the Arabs? Have they ever sat in a government before? Would they do it just to ruin Bibi?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 18, 2019, 07:07:34 PM
@kolhaolam was reporting that the blue and white faction has 56 seats. Is that’s including the Arabs? Have they ever sat in a government before? Would they do it just to ruin Bibi?
yes, no, maybe but unlikely.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 09:44:17 PM
Here's a reason why Netanyahu wouldn't form a unity government:

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 19, 2019, 12:01:31 AM
How is that worth 4-5 extra seats? The smallest party that made it in has 173k so far and 5 seats. At best, it's 3 seats divided between those parties. More likely that some of those voters would either stay home or vote for a different party that isn't making it in. I think it's a cost of 1-2 seats maximum.

It can round things up. I.e. like top up some votes on other parties that would have carried over 4-5 seats.

I'm just speculating... It's also possible that some of otzama voter's may not have voted at all had they run with yamina.

But yes even if he cost the right 3 seats, that is huge!!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on September 19, 2019, 12:14:59 AM
It can round things up. I.e. like top up some votes on other parties that would have carried over 4-5 seats.

I'm just speculating... It's also possible that some of otzama voter's may not have voted at all had they run with yamina.

But yes even if he cost the right 3 seats, that is huge!!
Any reason they couldn't make the same leftover votes pact some on the left (I think) made? Isn't that a win-win situation?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on September 19, 2019, 12:30:34 AM
Here's a reason why Netanyahu wouldn't form a unity government:


http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/269126

Quote
Asked if Joint List chairman Ayman Odeh will head the opposition, Tibi replied, “The law does not say that the head of the largest party in the opposition automatically becomes the leader of the opposition, but rather that any MK whom most of the MKs in the opposition recommend (will be the chairman of the opposition). An Arab MK will not be allowed to be the chairman of the opposition, so I tell you - this is a utopia.”
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 12:51:41 AM
Any reason they couldn't make the same leftover votes pact some on the left (I think) made? Isn't that a win-win situation?

Leftover pact only works of both sides of the pact get in. Bigger question is why they couldn't create a unified front/bloc like the Arabs did!?


רבי יוסי ממלחיא ורבי יהושע דסכנין בשם רבי לוי אמרו: מצינו תינוקות בימי דוד, עד שלא טעמו טעם חטא - היו יודעין לדרוש את התורה מ"ט פנים טמא ומ"ט פנים טהור, והוה דוד מצלי עליהון. הדא הוא שדוד אומר 'אתה ה' תשמרם' - אתה ה' נטר אורייתהון בלבהון. 'תנצרם מן הדור זו לעולם' - מן הדור ההוא שהוא חייב כליה.

אחר כל השבח הזה, יוצאין למלחמה ונופלין?!

אלא ע"י שהיו בהם דלטורין היו נופלין.

....

אבל דורו של אחאב - כולן עובדי עבודת כוכבים היו, ועל ידי שלא היו בהן דילטורין - היו יוצאין למלחמה ונוצחין.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 08:49:00 AM
Unofficial results:
B&W 33
Likud 31
Arabs 13
Shas 9
Lieberman 8
UTJ 8
Yemina 7
Labor 6
Democratic Camp 5
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 19, 2019, 08:53:31 AM
I thought our elections were messed up. This has my head spinning.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 19, 2019, 09:11:58 AM
I thought our elections were messed up. This has my head spinning.

I love trying to explain to colleagues that even though the election is over - it's far from over
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 19, 2019, 09:17:44 AM
I love trying to explain to colleagues that even though the election is over - it's far from over
So no majority means yet another election? WOW could you imagine if we had that here? We would run out of Kool-Aid.  :)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gingyguy on September 19, 2019, 09:20:13 AM
So no majority means yet another election? WOW could you imagine if we had that here? We would run out of Kool-Aid.  :)
Pretty much the only other option is a unity government with netanyahu and gantz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 19, 2019, 09:21:26 AM
Pretty much the only other option is a unity government with netanyahu and gantz
Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 19, 2019, 09:21:34 AM
Is lieberman going to say gantz should be PM?
or is he not going to say anyone?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gingyguy on September 19, 2019, 09:23:25 AM
Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?
netanyahu is right  gantz is center left . only question is which other parties will also get involved
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: dealfinder11 on September 19, 2019, 09:40:06 AM
Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?

It's a bit complex.

https://israelpolicyforum.cmail19.com/t/ViewEmail/i/87D3727774E9325B2540EF23F30FEDED/9F954F7AC0ACC4FABA4AF9908B8D85ED
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: stooges44 on September 19, 2019, 10:57:44 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/israel-steps-back-two-brinks/598384/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 19, 2019, 10:59:06 AM
So no majority means yet another election? WOW could you imagine if we had that here? We would run out of Kool-Aid.  :)

Not quite - essentially the President of the country will recommend to one of the two candidates to form a government - for a bunch of reasons, it's likely that he will turn to Bibi to do that - so he has a few weeks to broker a deal.

Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?

That's definitely complicated, but on a very simplistic level (I'm sure many will argue with these points):

The Right:
Likud - Bibi's party, the 'standard' right-wing party. Politically conservative, and religiously neutral/right leaning.
Shas - Sefardic Religious party - politically right, religiously right. Primary leadership and constituents are jews from Africa/France/Middle East Descent
UTJ (United Torah Judaism) - politically right, religiously right. Primary leadership and constituents are jews from Central/Northern European and American Descent
Yemina - a smaller politically right and religiously right-leaning party who's leaders (Shaked and Bennett) broke away from Likud

The "Center":
Blue and White - led by Gantz. This is a coalition of 3 parties, including the centrist Yesh Atid

Jewish Home - Lieberman's party - they are politically conservative, but somewhat anti-religious (for example, they are in favor of ending the draft exemptions for Charedim, but toe a hard line on the Palestinians, Iran, etc.) They are the outlier, because he politically disagrees with the left, and religiously with the right.

The Left (All politically left, and most are (at least) left-leaning when it comes to religion)
Joint Arab List - This is 4 smaller parties that generally represent that arab population and have Israeli Arab members of knesset. (Israeli Arab = Muslim or Christian Arabs that live within the 1967 borders and have full citizenship).
Labor - The party of Shimon Peres and Yitzchak Rabin, that's fallen off of the map. The old guard Israeli Left
Democratic Camp  - A coalition of parties that are the old-school Israeli "Extreme Left" - including Meretz.






[/quote]
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shwarmabob on September 19, 2019, 11:18:15 AM
Shas - Sefardic Religious party - politically right, religiously right. Primary leadership and constituents are jews from Africa/France/Middle East Descent
minor correction: Shas played a central role in passing the Oslo Accords, so I wouldn't call them right wing. They will go with whoever will give them some silver and postpone their periodic jail stints.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 11:21:31 AM
minor correction: Shas played a central role in passing the Oslo Accords, so I wouldn't call them right wing. They will go with whoever will give them some silver and postpone their periodic jail stints.

Though most of their voters are right wing. And they clearly positioned themselves as right wing for election purposes.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 19, 2019, 12:06:02 PM
Netanyahu signed an agreement with Yamina, Shas, UTJ to only negotiate as a block. Now he's calling for you a unity goverment with Gantz, that conveniently Netanyahu will lead (as his block now has 55, in the purely theoretical sense).
Gantz responded that this is political spin and Netanyahu has decided to go to 3rd elections and is trying to (more accurately, has successfully) shift the blame on B&W

So...basically Bibi has Gantz by the you know where
Either Right + B&W with Bibi as PM
Or Gantz + labor + barak + Arabs + Liberman

Or...Round 3 (most likely)

Who's surprised that the seasoned Bibi has outflanked the newcomer in Gantz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 19, 2019, 12:26:00 PM
Netanyahu signed an agreement with Yamina, Shas, UTJ to only negotiate as a block. Now he's calling for you a unity goverment with Gantz, that conveniently Netanyahu will lead (as his block now has 55, in the purely theoretical sense).
Gantz responded that this is political spin and Netanyahu has decided to go to 3rd elections and is trying to (more accurately, has successfully) shift the blame on B&W

So...basically Bibi has Gantz by the you know where
Either Right + B&W with Bibi as PM
Or Gantz + labor + barak + Arabs + Liberman

Or...Round 3 (most likely)

Who's surprised that the seasoned Bibi has outflanked the newcomer in Gantz

How would round 3 produce results that aren't deadlocked?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 19, 2019, 12:31:14 PM
Either
1. Everyone blames <insert politician here> for going to 3rd elections and punishes him for that
2. They raise the threshold to 5% (though I'm not sure that would really make a difference)
3. Bibi gets indicted
4. There is tremendous apathy from all sectors other than the chareidim who win a straight majority and install a medinat halacha
5. It won't, but at least people get an extra day at the beach
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 19, 2019, 12:42:03 PM
How would round 3 produce results that aren't deadlocked?

What's the definition of insanity again? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results? :)

I don't think anyone wants a third election, but everyone is being stubborn.

I think logically, Bibi's best bet is to work with one of Gantz/Lapid/Ya'alon to split Blue and White, and take their seats to his coalition, but I don't think any of them want to do that. I also don't know the Israeli system well enough to know if that's even possible - is it?



Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 19, 2019, 12:44:08 PM
It's technically possible. Though I don't think very likely. One hates Bibi more than the next. And what could he possibly offer them
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 12:46:58 PM
Netanyahu signed an agreement with Yamina, Shas, UTJ to only negotiate as a block. Now he's calling for you a unity goverment with Gantz, that conveniently Netanyahu will lead (as his block now has 55, in the purely theoretical sense).
Gantz responded that this is political spin and Netanyahu has decided to go to 3rd elections and is trying to (more accurately, has successfully) shift the blame on B&W

So...basically Bibi has Gantz by the you know where
Either Right + B&W with Bibi as PM
Or Gantz + labor + barak + Arabs + Liberman

Or...Round 3 (most likely)

Who's surprised that the seasoned Bibi has outflanked the newcomer in Gantz

We need to wait for final results (and possibly for Bibi's hearing).

Right now it looks like B&W has 2 more seats than Likud, as does the "Center-Left" vs "Right", which creates the perception that Gantz should be the leader. If Bibi's camp stands strong and united, Gantz has no path to form a government without Bibi's camp. Possible scenario: President gives Gantz first chance, he tries and tries and fails. In the interim, Bibi has his hearing, and the indictment is cancelled, that opens up more possibilities. However, even in such a scenario, Netanyahu will be viewed unfavorably (though there's an overwhelming majority that seems to agree that he's more fit for the job).

Another possible scenario: Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing. However, this scenario will have to eliminate people or positions that are hardline and exclusive. i.e. Lapid.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 12:48:45 PM
None of this mess is unprecedented in parliamentary systems. Just look at recent history Greece, Belgium, Italy and possibly others (look at what's going on in the UK, the oldest parliamentary system out there).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 19, 2019, 12:49:54 PM
It's technically possible. Though I don't think very likely. One hates Bibi more than the next. And what could he possibly offer them

Reminiscent of the old Golda Meir Line:
"We'll only a have a government when Lieberman or Gantz loves being in power more than they hate Bibi"

Completely unrelated. I read an article the other day on Globes (which unfortunately I can't seem to find) which was interviewing a Cafe owner about election day. He pointed out that even though he gets more customers than he would on a normal weekday, the traffic inflow doesn't make up for the double-time he needs to pay his employees for working on a holiday. So each election day he's operating at a loss.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 19, 2019, 12:54:21 PM
We need to wait for final results (and possibly for Bibi's hearing).

Right now it looks like B&W has 2 more seats than Likud, as does the "Center-Left" vs "Right", which creates the perception that Gantz should be the leader. If Bibi's camp stands strong and united, Gantz has no path to form a government without Bibi's camp. Possible scenario: President gives Gantz first chance, he tries and tries and fails. In the interim, Bibi has his hearing, and the indictment is cancelled, that opens up more possibilities. However, even in such a scenario, Netanyahu will be viewed unfavorably (though there's an overwhelming majority that seems to agree that he's more fit for the job).

Another possible scenario: Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing. However, this scenario will have to eliminate people or positions that are hardline and exclusive. i.e. Lapid.

That's a great analysis @ExGingi

I imagine (like you suggest) for a unity govt. to exist, it will either need to exclude some of Bibi's current 55, or have non-starters - for example, the ending the draft exemption is a non-starter. If Bibi shares the PM with Gantz, it will either be post his accquital, or extend him non-prosecution until the government is re-done.

One other weird but plausible solution:
- Bibi negotiates a national unity government, where he is PM for the first 18-24 months. And then 1 month before the switch, he gets enough people to vote no-confidence and has another election - of course he spends those 18 months moving people around to different parties so we don't have this again.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 19, 2019, 03:58:46 PM
We need to wait for final results (and possibly for Bibi's hearing).

Right now it looks like B&W has 2 more seats than Likud, as does the "Center-Left" vs "Right", which creates the perception that Gantz should be the leader. If Bibi's camp stands strong and united, Gantz has no path to form a government without Bibi's camp. Possible scenario: President gives Gantz first chance, he tries and tries and fails. In the interim, Bibi has his hearing, and the indictment is cancelled, that opens up more possibilities. However, even in such a scenario, Netanyahu will be viewed unfavorably (though there's an overwhelming majority that seems to agree that he's more fit for the job).

Another possible scenario: Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing. However, this scenario will have to eliminate people or positions that are hardline and exclusive. i.e. Lapid.
I see no way that Rivlin tasks Gantz with creating a coalition if he has no path to creating one
There is no way Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing - one guy has to be the prime minister. If it's just Likud and B&W, there is no way Bibi is the PM, he has less mandates. And there is NO way that Bibi sits under Gantz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: stooges44 on September 19, 2019, 04:30:18 PM


I need to point out a basic fact about the election results which the US media, in particular, is missing.

Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו did not lose and בני גנץ - Benny Gantz didn't win. Gantz cannot form a government under any circumstances. He cannot build a majority coalition.

By forming a unified political bloc of 55 Knesset members with the Likud's satellite parties, Netanyahu has created a situation where he is the only possible prime minister. Either the Blue and White Party -- or one of its factions -- joins him, or Amir Peretz and Orly Levy bring the Labor party in, or Israel goes to new elections. Those are the only options.

In other words, it's either going to be Netanyahu or elections. It's up to Gantz, and Peretz.

I'll say more. The balance of power is still very much on the Right. The Right has 55 seats. The Left has 44. Liberman is nothing but a Bibi hater. And the Arab parties are so extreme that they cannot be considered for any governing coalition.

A word about the exclusion of the Arab party from the coalition math.

Lest anyone be tempted to believe the Washington Post's attempt to claim Israel is racist because Israelis don't want to share power with the Arab parties, the fact is that there is not one Arab party that accepts Israel's right to exist. There were Arab politicians elected yesterday that have written odes to terrorist murderers on the Facebook pages. Arab lawmakers were elected that have met with terror kingpins. Arab lawmakers routinely support the Palestinian war against Israel and express support for Hamas.

It is not racist for Israelis not to want Hamas supporters and champions of terrorist murderers in the Israeli government or receiving security briefings from the military and intelligence services. It is rational.

The deadlock in Israel is electoral, not ideological. Liberman's defection from the Right has denied it a governing majority. But it is still very much the majority in Israel. And the vast majority of Jewish lawmakers in the Knesset support applying Israeli law over the Jordan Valley as Netanyahu suggested. A large majority (55-44) of Jewish lawmakers also support applying Israeli law to other parts of Judea and Samaria.

Netanyahu is the only person capable of forming a government. It remains to be seen if that will happen, but Gantz cannot form a government. And he is slowly coming to terms with this unalterable reality.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on September 19, 2019, 05:02:20 PM


I'll say more. The balance of power is still very much on the Right. The Right has 55 seats.

The truth is that the "real" left (at least when it comes to Foreign policy) has a grand total of 11 seats (or 24 if you count the Arab).

This wasn't a Left vs Right election, it was a Pro Bibi vs Anti and Pro-Yiddishkeit vs Anti election.

 If one thing is clear from this election, it's that the two state solution is dead...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 19, 2019, 05:10:12 PM
@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 05:49:37 PM
@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater an ambitious opporunist extraordinaire!

FTFY
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: stooges44 on September 19, 2019, 06:27:29 PM
@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater

You do know I just c/p what she said, I did that because most don't have fb.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 19, 2019, 08:22:36 PM
Leftover pact only works of both sides of the pact get in. Bigger question is why they couldn't create a unified front/bloc like the Arabs did!?


רבי יוסי ממלחיא ורבי יהושע דסכנין בשם רבי לוי אמרו: מצינו תינוקות בימי דוד, עד שלא טעמו טעם חטא - היו יודעין לדרוש את התורה מ"ט פנים טמא ומ"ט פנים טהור, והוה דוד מצלי עליהון. הדא הוא שדוד אומר 'אתה ה' תשמרם' - אתה ה' נטר אורייתהון בלבהון. 'תנצרם מן הדור זו לעולם' - מן הדור ההוא שהוא חייב כליה.

אחר כל השבח הזה, יוצאין למלחמה ונופלין?!

אלא ע"י שהיו בהם דלטורין היו נופלין.

....

אבל דורו של אחאב - כולן עובדי עבודת כוכבים היו, ועל ידי שלא היו בהן דילטורין - היו יוצאין למלחמה ונוצחין.

yamina is not vry loved on the right. They are fool of a$$ kissers and spineless cowards.. still, better than wasting even 3 seats
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 19, 2019, 09:01:20 PM
They are fool of a$$ kissers and spineless cowards..
It is hard to keep these threads separate with so much in common.  :)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Definitions on September 19, 2019, 10:14:26 PM
I don't know the Israeli election process. Assuming a government can't be formed whatever that means. What exactly do they think will change with the new elections? Will people change what they originally voted for?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yammer on September 19, 2019, 10:57:51 PM


1. Do we really think that a neutered Labor would go into a coalition with Bibi?
2. If this happens, I suspect that one (or both) of these two things happens - a) Bibi's coalition deal will preclude him from being prosecuted even while he's not PM b) He'll get the first 1.5-2 years, and then 1 or 2 months shy find a way to force a new election

Lieberman is in a weird position... what is the lesser of two evils for him - joining with Bibi or joining with the Arab List? If Gantz/Bibi want full control, they need to make a deal with him. But he himself is pushing for a Unity Government, which pretty much Gantz and Bibi can do on their own, and show him the door.

Or Bibi gets indicted and Ganz is PM...

Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?

Impossible for the Arabs to sit in a Govt. First attack on Gaza and they threaten to bolt.

so will the arabs as they also have a high birthrate

They won't be part of Israel...your forgetting Trump's Deal of the Century...

BTDT.

Peretz has history.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amir_Peretz

The only thing that changed is his shaving off his mustache.

This is how I see the playbook potentially unfolding:

Mandelblit holds hearing with Netanyahu, following which it is determined that there aren't sufficient grounds for an indictment, which gives a whole bunch of people (primary amongst them Peretz & Co) an explanation as to why they will join Netanyahu, as they said they won't join him as long as there's a pending indictment. Once there's no pending indictment, they can join.

This might also signal the breakup and demise of B&W whose sole raison d'๊tre is anti Bibi (ostensibly due to corruption).

Or he gets indicted.

Why does everyone seem to think that he's innocent? Israel has quite a history with indicting the highest officials

How would round 3 produce results that aren't deadlocked?

I think there will be quite a few changes as ppl are exasperated. Less smaller parties and more mergers, so votes don't get lost.

I see no way that Rivlin tasks Gantz with creating a coalition if he has no path to creating one
There is no way Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing - one guy has to be the prime minister. If it's just Likud and B&W, there is no way Bibi is the PM, he has less mandates. And there is NO way that Bibi sits under Gantz

Disagree.

Rivlin needs to prove that he's unbiased. He gives Ganz a shot ( which he thinks that he will fail ) and only then is there actually a chance that Ganz caves in to Bibi.

@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater

I actually didn't understand how his supporters stand for his hatred to Charedim instead of using his position to maximize for them ( could've gotten literally everything) . But I've come to understand that they have issues with Gerus/Marriage etc. That's a real cause to his base to support him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 11:23:28 PM
Why does everyone seem to think that he's innocent? Israel has quite a history with indicting the highest officials

Because Bibi is smarter than that. And the allegations are nonsense. If Bibi should be indicted, Lapid did much worse.

 


Rivlin needs to prove that he's unbiased. He gives Ganz a shot ( which he thinks that he will fail ) and only then is there actually a chance that Ganz caves in to Bibi.
Rivlin and Netanyahu are old foes. No one suspects Rivlin of any favoritism towards Netanyahu. As a matter of fact, while in the Knesset he was considered a right wing hawk. As soon as he became president, he began pandering to the left wing.

I actually didn't understand how his supporters stand for his hatred to Charedim instead of using his position to maximize for them ( could've gotten literally everything) . But I've come to understand that they have issues with Gerus/Marriage etc. That's a real cause to his base to support him.

Lieberman doesn't hate Charedim. For years Deri was one of his best buddies. He is a shrewd opportunist who identified a wave he could ride.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 19, 2019, 11:52:34 PM
Am I crazy for believing that the only option besides going for round 3 is right wing + labor?

Yes it will have to go through very complicated negotiations but at the end they will figure it out.

And if you're worried how long such government can hold, it can't, but what will happen is, blue and white while being in the minority since Gantz and Lapid have 0 in common besides trying to being down Netanyahu, once they sit in the minority and their task of bringing down Netanyahu is over they will kill each other and the party will become broken and some center rights will jump over to the right wing and keep the government alive.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 12:28:40 AM
Am I crazy for believing that the only option besides going for round 3 is right wing + labor?

Yes it will have to go through very complicated negotiations but at the end they will figure it out.

And if you're worried how long such government can hold, it can't, but what will happen is, blue and white while being in the minority since Gantz and Lapid have 0 in common besides trying to being down Netanyahu, once they sit in the minority and their task of bringing down Netanyahu is over they will kill each other and the party will become broken and some center rights will jump over to the right wing and keep the government alive.

Has been said before in different words.

https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1032674

I guess I am not the only one that thinks so.

However, the game board is a little different at this stage.

Netanyahu can simply wait it out, allowing Gantz to make a fool of himself a second time around (first time was in April), trying to no avail to form a government. In the interim Mandelblit holds the hearing and the threat of indictment is dropped, and all of the sudden the game board looks different yet again, but this time giving an advantage to Netanyahu.

BTW, all along Netanyahu is still the transitional PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yammer on September 20, 2019, 12:31:10 AM
Because Bibi is smarter than that. And the allegations are nonsense. If Bibi should be indicted, Lapid did much worse.

Rivlin and Netanyahu are old foes. No one suspects Rivlin of any favoritism towards Netanyahu. As a matter of fact, while in the Knesset he was considered a right wing hawk. As soon as he became president, he began pandering to the left wing.

Lieberman doesn't hate Charedim. For years Deri was one of his best buddies. He is a shrewd opportunist who identified a wave he could ride.

1. They can indict him even if it wasn't a crime....
2. Correct. Still might want to prove it.
3. About Leiberman. Not disagreeing. He's obviously an opportunist. But as an opportunist he would've taken a deal now and gotten everything from Bibi, instead of squatting it for Bibi/Charaidy bashing. Imagine UTJ/Shas in that position and they would squat such an opportunity. The community would have been fuming for not squeezing out concessions. He therefore picked a battle with Charaidim that resonates with his base.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on September 20, 2019, 01:22:20 AM
I’m not saying i personally favor this idea, but is it an option to somehow skip over Netanyahu and go to the number 2 in Likud? Than Leiberman would agree to be in the coalition... i think Leiberman is dying for that to happen, because this whole mess was caused by Lieberman trying to end Netanyahu’s career.
how would such a thing work? Would the Likud have to have internal elections? Could Rivlin on his own decide to give it to the number 2 in likud and skip over Netanyahu?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 01:26:58 AM
I’m not saying i personally favor this idea, but is it an option to somehow skip over Netanyahu and go to the number 2 in Likud? Than Leiberman would agree to be in the coalition... i think Leiberman is dying for that to happen, because this whole mess was caused by Lieberman trying to end Netanyahu’s career.
how would such a thing work? Would the Likud have to have internal elections? Could Rivlin on his own decide to give it to the number 2 in likud and skip over Netanyahu?
This ain't happening.

Technically Rivlin can assign the task of forming a govern to any MK. If he did something like this on his own, it would be a legitimate reason for a bona fide coup.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on September 20, 2019, 01:29:46 AM
This ain't happening.

Technically Rivlin can assign the task of forming a govern to any MK. If he did something like this on his own, it would be a legitimate reason for a bona fide coup.
Why not? It might be the only way to break to prevent another election
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 01:43:38 AM
Why not? It might be the only way to break to prevent another election

For the same reason the electoral college wouldn't elect someone other than what the general election indicated in the US.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 20, 2019, 03:08:39 AM
FTFY
Am opportunist has to have an end game to cash in his chips. He doesn't seem interested
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 20, 2019, 03:09:39 AM
This ain't happening.

Technically Rivlin can assign the task of forming a govern to any MK. If he did something like this on his own, it would be a legitimate reason for a bona fide coup.
Would only happen if it came from likud. And like @ExGingi said, that ain't happening
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 08:39:44 AM
Final, yet non-certified results published here:

https://www.kipa.co.il/userFiles/files/5bc54f1b8b755ad22efa441d5341f816.pdf
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 20, 2019, 08:58:52 AM
Final, yet not-yet certified results published here:

https://www.kipa.co.il/userFiles/files/5bc54f1b8b755ad22efa441d5341f816.pdf
Otzmah likely doesn't cross the threshold even if it's a 3 seat minimum.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 09:03:13 AM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/693461
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 20, 2019, 10:21:09 AM
I think Rivlin says I am not tasking anyone with creating the coalition until you children figure something out
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 20, 2019, 10:24:22 AM
Otzmah likely doesn't cross the threshold even if all of the invalid votes belong to it!.
FTFY

They'd still be about 1 seat short if you add all of the invalid ballots (~26k) + their ~85k
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 20, 2019, 10:27:00 AM
FTFY

They'd still be about 1 seat short if you add all of the invalid ballots (~26k) + their ~85k
Why so many invalid ballots?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 20, 2019, 10:27:40 AM
Nor would Otzmah make any difference even if all those votes went to right wing parties.

Would still be the same stalemate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 20, 2019, 10:31:26 AM
Nor would Otzmah make any difference even if all those votes went to right wing parties.

Would still be the same stalemate.
There's only 3 relevant people right now - bibi, gantz, and Lieberman.

One or more of them has to give something up. Bibi wants to be PM with immunity, Gantz said he won't sit with bibi, and Lieberman won't sit with Chareidim.

The alternative scenerio is 1 of the left wing parties joining, but I can't see it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 20, 2019, 10:53:01 AM
Nor would Otzmah make any difference even if all those votes went to right wing parties.

Would still be the same stalemate.

look at the results, Yamina 7 seats at 260.. then UTJ 8 seats at 268.. bibi 31 to Gantz 33 only sort 37k votes..

otzama 83k votes spread out to likud, yamina, shas etc would as I said, have been 4 seats +

New landscape likud 34, shas 10, utj 8, yamina 8 this 60.. just 1 short.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 20, 2019, 11:34:53 AM
look at the results, Yamina 7 seats at 260.. then UTJ 8 seats at 268.. bibi 31 to Gantz 33 only sort 37k votes..
otzama 83k votes spread out to likud, yamina, shas etc would as I said, have been 4 seats +
New landscape likud 34, shas 10, utj 8, yamina 8 this 60.. just 1 short.

I think your math is a little off. The right might have only gained 2-3 seats So bibi only goes to 57-58 from 55. Still the same stale mate
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 12:07:11 PM
Some memes from WA:

(https://i.imgur.com/xcXFeJ1.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/dvplgrA.png)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 02:07:04 AM
https://m.news1.co.il/ArticlePage.aspx?docid=136472&subjectid=24

Interesting analysis, though I find his bottom line suggestion too far fetched.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 11:20:11 AM
https://news.walla.co.il/item/3314222

 Now Gantz is cornered.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 22, 2019, 11:54:16 AM
"if you choose not to decide you still have made a choice"
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 22, 2019, 12:09:24 PM
Now what?
Maybe...
I think Rivlin says I am not tasking anyone with creating the coalition until you children figure something out
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 22, 2019, 01:07:38 PM
I'm no expert, but is it time to switch to directly electing a PM and a party separately?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dawie on September 22, 2019, 01:19:54 PM
I'm no expert, but is it time to switch to directly electing a PM and a party separately?
they tried that years ago from '96 to '01
Not sure why they changed back
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 01:57:13 PM
https://m.ynet.co.il/Articles/5594264

It's become a hot potato at this point. No one wants to get the mandate first from the president (and he knows that, but might not have a choice at this point since a plurality of MK recommended Gantz, and he heads the largest party).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 02:05:03 PM
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/09/22/middleeast/israel-election-benjamin-netanyahu-future-intl/index.html

Here's a suggestion for Israeli politicians: let the Knesset vote on a law to hold new elections and bar Lieberman or anyone from his party in participating. If there's one thing EVERYONE across the political spectrum can agree upon at this point, is that Lieberman is a non-trust-worthy troublemaker (and possibly highly corrupt).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 22, 2019, 02:24:27 PM
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/09/22/middleeast/israel-election-benjamin-netanyahu-future-intl/index.html

Here's a suggestion for Israeli politicians: let the Knesset vote on a law to hold new elections and bar Lieberman or anyone from his party in participating. If there's one thing EVERYONE across the political spectrum can agree upon at this point, is that Lieberman is a non-trust-worthy troublemaker (and possibly highly corrupt).
Do you actually believe the things you write?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 02:29:02 PM
Do you actually believe the things you write?

Do I believe this suggestion is likely to happen? No!
Do I believe that there's a huge majority that would love to see it happen. Absolutely yes!
Do I believe there's a legal way to make it happen? Haven't given it too much thought to find a legal way for this to happen, but on the surface I can't think of a legal way for this to happen.
Do I think Israeli politicians turn to DDF for suggestions? Absolutely not!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Pad18 on September 22, 2019, 02:35:20 PM
Do I think Israeli politicians turn to DDF for suggestions? Absolutely not!

Lol
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 22, 2019, 03:19:38 PM
Do you actually believe the things you write?
#DDFShockJock
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 22, 2019, 03:48:40 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1788604/significant-development-joint-arab-list-recommends-gantz-to-form-government.html
Amazing they can't even get the facts correct in a simple article like this
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 22, 2019, 04:08:00 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1788604/significant-development-joint-arab-list-recommends-gantz-to-form-government.html
Amazing they can't even get the facts correct in a simple article like this
Why would this be different than any other article?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 22, 2019, 04:08:44 PM
they tried that years ago from '96 to '01
Not sure why they changed back
Anyone know why they changed it?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gingyguy on September 22, 2019, 04:12:34 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1788604/significant-development-joint-arab-list-recommends-gantz-to-form-government.html
Amazing they can't even get the facts correct in a simple article like this
lol , Nothing they write amazes me any more
just look at the like count on this post
Friends don't let friends fly spirit. (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=100670.msg2044086#msg2044086)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 06:08:28 PM
Anyone know why they changed it?

FWIW, per Wikipedia it resulted in a weaker PM as people might have voted for him and not his party.

Quote
חוק הבחירה הישירה הביא למצב בו רבים שקודם לחוק הצביעו למפלגתו של מי שרצו שיהיה ראש הממשלה (אחת המפלגות הגדולות), הצביעו בפתק הצהוב לראש הממשלה ובפתק השני הצביעו למפלגה אחרת ששיקפה יותר את השקפת עולמם או למפלגה שייצגה את המגזר שלהם. תוצאה זו גרמה להחלשת כוחו של ראש הממשלה הנבחר, שמצא את עצמו עומד בראש מפלגה קטנה יחסית. עובדה זו הייתה הגורם העיקרי להחזרת השיטה הקודמת של משטר פרלמנטרי טהור.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 22, 2019, 06:16:13 PM
FWIW, per Wikipedia it resulted in a weaker PM as people might have voted for him and not his party.

Perhaps, but it seems like a way out of this mess.
A unity government would be more feasible if PM was off the table.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 06:40:56 PM
Perhaps, but it seems like a way out of this mess.
A unity government would be more feasible if PM was off the table.
That seems logical, and was the reason for the initial enactment.

However, no system is perfect, and the pendulum swings.

The other problem is that deep down, people know that there is no 'solution' to the conflict with the "Palestinians", or with the Jihadists (of various flavors). So the geopolitical options range from a delusional (but rooted in aspirations) attitude of unilateral concessions and withdrawals (an interesting video of what might have been the last meeting between Shimon Peres and R' Ovadia Yosef, with the former trying to convince the latter to support one of his delusional solutions, has recently surfaced), through the pragmatic and long horizon approach of Netanyahu of managing the situation locally, while getting regional focus away from the "Palestinians", or better yet rejecting their issue as a pan-Arabian one, to the extreme Zionist attitude of forcefully crushing any "Palestinian" aspirations.

This has just brought about the so-called "center left" B&W party, that doesn't really offer much of an alternative to Netanyahu's methods (though with less experience and talent). They have folded into their ranks some people who are proposing slightly different geopolitical approaches, but once reality hits, they will be no different (other than likely not being able to withstand major pressure from outside).

There hasn't been one poll in which Netanyahu hasn't trounced Gantz (or anyone else) in being seen fit to lead the country.

Lieberman did identify the one issue that ostensibly does highlight differences of approach, which is the anti religious establishment and laws vs pro such laws. Unfortunately, I think UTJ and Shas didn't use a correct strategy in this area. While they did energize their base, I think they should have put a lot more effort in reaching out to people outside of their base, who wouldn't vote for them, but try to get them to reject the Lieberman/Lapid approach.

The bottom line is, that we can write and suggest whatever we want, but:

Do I think Israeli politicians turn to DDF for suggestions? Absolutely not!

All I do here is report things as I see them and offer my analysis and/or point of view. Some like to call that
#DDFShockJock

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 07:59:38 PM
Rivlin and Netanyahu are old foes. No one suspects Rivlin of any favoritism towards Netanyahu. As a matter of fact, while in the Knesset he was considered a right wing hawk. As soon as he became president, he began pandering to the left wing.

https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/694195

Notice the last paragraph, they don't mince words as to how they see the Rivlin Netanyahu relationship.

Quote
לא מן הנמנע כי נשיא המדינה, המונע מתאוות נקם בראש הממשלה, ישקול מהו המעשה שהכי יפגע בנתניהו, להיות ראשון או שני, ועל פי זה יקבל את החלטתו. הנימוקים לכל החלטה הרי כבר ידועים מראש.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 23, 2019, 01:46:10 AM
https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-withholding-nomination-for-pm-liberman-to-meet-gantz/
Lieberman says they should flip a coin. Craziest thing is he's right

And this
“The Joint List are our enemies,” said Liberman. “Wherever they are, we will be on the other side.”
He's actually talking sense. What's going on?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 23, 2019, 01:50:30 AM
https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-withholding-nomination-for-pm-liberman-to-meet-gantz/
Lieberman says they should flip a coin. Craziest thing is he's right

And this
“The Joint List are our enemies,” said Liberman. “Wherever they are, we will be on the other side.”
He's actually talking sense. What's going on?
Why does a B&W/Likud government need Liberman?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 23, 2019, 02:39:13 AM
It doesn't, though larger coalitions are usually stronger (operative word being usually, don't think it applies here)
Would be really funny if they offer him nothing and he's still forced to join the coalition to avoid looking like a bigger fool
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 06:16:17 AM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/694277

Netanyahu gets 55 MK recommending vs Gantz 54. This gives Rivlin the OK to throw the hot potato at Netanyahu first.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 23, 2019, 07:16:34 AM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/694277

Netanyahu gets 55 MK recommending vs Gantz 54. This gives Rivlin the OK to throw the hot potato at Netanyahu first.
Lets see if he can pull it off or #NewElections  cant see him giving up and giving Gantz a turn to try
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 07:25:53 AM
Lets see if he can pull it off or #NewElections  cant see him giving up and giving Gantz a turn to try

IMHO the key is waiting until after the AG hearing, and coming out without an indictment.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 23, 2019, 07:28:03 AM
IMHO the key is waiting until after the AG hearing, and coming out without an indictment.
Bibi is scared of an indictment  if he wouldnt be scared he wouldnt push off the hearing
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 07:36:59 AM
Bibi is scared of an indictment  if he wouldnt be scared he wouldnt push off the hearing
-1
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 23, 2019, 07:41:27 AM
IMHO the key is waiting until after the AG hearing, and coming out without an indictment.
The odds of there not being an indictment are infinitesimally small. Not sure why you think that's a likely outcome.



Quote
“If you task Gantz with forming the government, we will not negotiate with him,” Shaked said. “We are committed to the head of the national camp, Prime Minister Netanyahu.

“I do want to tell you, Mr. President, that you may need to act like a kindergarten teacher and tell the other party leaders to stop the boycotts,” she added. “There are ideological boycotts and there are also personal boycotts. And it needs to stop, both the personal and the ideological boycotts, and to try and get to some form of unity government.
Do you think she realized how hypocritical that is?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 23, 2019, 09:42:48 AM
Perhaps, but it seems like a way out of this mess.
A unity government would be more feasible if PM was off the table.

You'd think that. But imagine you are the leader of the Party with the most seats and you lost the direct prime minister election. That would be a huge disincentive to work with the PM to form a unity coalition.

IIRC, prior to the experiment of the directly elected prime minister, Likud Labor would regularly get Mandates into the 40's  - because back then people felt voting for a party was essentially a proxy for voting for prime minister. Then after/during the direct election, people realized that it was probably just better to vote for the party that aligns with their political interests, and hope that they'll back the correct candidate for PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 23, 2019, 09:45:06 AM
I think rivlin should give gantz the first shot. Neither side has 61 pledges, gantz is slightly bigger, and it would prevent bibi from trying to call a 3rd election before gantz gets a change (again). Maybe gantz succeeds in breaking Likud, maybe he doesn't. But then if and when the stalemate continues, at least rivlin can say he tried.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 23, 2019, 10:03:58 AM
I think rivlin should give gantz the first shot. Neither side has 61 pledges, gantz is slightly bigger, and it would prevent bibi from trying to call a 3rd election before gantz gets a change (again). Maybe gantz succeeds in breaking Likud, maybe he doesn't. But then if and when the stalemate continues, at least rivlin can say he tried.
But Rivlin is a Likudnik
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 23, 2019, 10:16:06 AM
But Rivlin is a Likudnik
Who has a known dislike of bibi.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 23, 2019, 02:29:21 PM
This just shows her polar the parties are. Reminds me of when Holocaust survivers teamed up with oleh yarok.

Feiglin was a right wine champion became the weed champion.

Bibi has been good for the economy and security.

They talk about corruption, labor and histadrut was the epitome of corruption.

Kachol lavan is nothing , it's like a million other parties that came and went.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 02:42:08 PM
The odds of there not being an indictment are infinitesimally small. Not sure why you think that's a likely outcome.

Do you actually believe the things you write?

And if you happen to belive that the odds are "infinitesimally small", what makes you believe so? Is it because you believe that the AG is dishonest or is "infinitesimally" likely to cave to pressure, or is it because you actually believe that the implausible allegations have any merit?


Quote
“If you task Gantz with forming the government, we will not negotiate with him,” Shaked said. “We are committed to the head of the national camp, Prime Minister Netanyahu.

“I do want to tell you, Mr. President, that you may need to act like a kindergarten teacher and tell the other party leaders to stop the boycotts,” she added. “There are ideological boycotts and there are also personal boycotts. And it needs to stop, both the personal and the ideological boycotts, and to try and get to some form of unity government.
Do you think she realized how hypocritical that is?

Where's the hypocrisy? She's not boycotting Gantz, she's just saying that she made a pact with Netanyahu that she wouldn't negotiate separately but rather appear as a unified bloc and will allow Netanyahu's team handle negotiations.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 05:30:03 PM
Seen on WhatsApp:

דלפו פרטים מהפגישה בין נתניהו לגנץ:
נתניהו הציע לגנץ את התיקים; 1000, 2000, 3000 ו4000. גנץ סירב בטענה שאין בהם כלום...

 ;D
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 23, 2019, 05:30:28 PM
I think they'll go for round 3.

Meir kahane was right though, the demographics are catching up in the Arab sector.

However, I think the Arabs will assimilate.

I'm a frum Jew and sure as hell don't want a government run by utj or Shas..

I think we will see more Israeli Arabs realize they are better off under Bibi, it's wishful thinking, it's not gonna be a lot but some. .
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 23, 2019, 05:31:45 PM
I think they'll go for round 3.

Meir kahane was right though, the demographics are catching up in the Arab sector.

However, I think the Arabs will assimilate.

I'm a frum Jew and sure as hell don't want a government run by utj or Shas..

I think we will see more Israeli Arabs realize they are better off under Bibi, it's wishful thinking, it's not gonna be a lot but some. .
I think a 3rd round hurts bibi.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 05:42:28 PM
I think they'll go for round 3.
I think a 3rd round hurts bibi.

It's all conjecture at this point.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on September 23, 2019, 05:43:55 PM
It's all conjecture at this point.
Basically you just summed up a 400+ post thread in 5 words :)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 23, 2019, 05:46:13 PM
I think a 3rd round hurts bibi.


It's all conjecture at this point.
Likud with Kachlon got fewer seats than Likud alone. The only exception would be if bibi is legally cleared before a 3rd election.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 05:50:43 PM
Basically you just summed up a 400+ post thread in 5 words :)

Except for the few jokes and memes.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on September 23, 2019, 05:52:28 PM
Basically you just summed up a 400+ post thread in 5 words :)
Just the thread?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 23, 2019, 06:17:46 PM
I think Rivlin says I am not tasking anyone with creating the coalition until you children figure something out
Looks like this is exactly what happened
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 07:21:09 PM
Looks like this is exactly what happened
Except that he can't legally hand the task to anyone before certified results are released. He's trying to preempt the situation where he's the one throwing the hot potato.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on September 24, 2019, 05:35:20 AM
Gantz-Lapid would most probably not run together a third time.  I think Gantz is unhappy with the hate he spews. I cannot see them running again. What might work is if Lieberman teams up with Gantz, that is a much better shidduch
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on September 24, 2019, 11:10:39 AM
Can a sitting PM be indicted?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 24, 2019, 11:15:07 AM
Can a sitting PM be indicted?

It's up to the sole discretion of the AG.

Which is why the left has been taking unprecedented personal abhorrent actions against him for months. The end justifies all means for them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on September 24, 2019, 11:20:40 AM
It's up to the sole discretion of the AG.
ty
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 24, 2019, 11:34:54 AM
It's up to the sole discretion of the AG.

Which is why the left has been taking unprecedented personal abhorrent actions against him for months. The end justifies all means for them.
In a normal time line, Netanyahu would step aside until he is exonerated rather than try to get his allies to sign agreements barring prosecution.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 24, 2019, 04:45:51 PM
In a normal time line, Netanyahu would step aside until he is exonerated rather than try to get his allies to sign agreements barring prosecution.
In a normal time line there would be no talk of prosecuting Bibi now.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 24, 2019, 05:00:19 PM
In a normal time line there would be no talk of prosecuting Bibi now.
Why? Olmert was forced out due to an investigation. As were Lieberman and Deri.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 24, 2019, 07:01:05 PM
OUCH!!!

Final results are out, UTJ loses one seat to Likud.

Poor Pindrus, he's been subjected to this כף הקלע before.

https://col.org.il/news/120749

https://www.news1.co.il/Archive/001-D-418306-00.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on September 24, 2019, 08:45:25 PM
OUCH!!!

Final results are out, UTJ loses one seat to Likud.

Poor Pindrus, he's been subjected to this כף הקלע before.

https://col.org.il/news/120749

https://www.news1.co.il/Archive/001-D-418306-00.html
Again?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 24, 2019, 09:07:35 PM
OUCH!!!

Final results are out, UTJ loses one seat to Likud.

Poor Pindrus, he's been subjected to this כף הקלע before.

https://col.org.il/news/120749

https://www.news1.co.il/Archive/001-D-418306-00.html
Feel bad for him personally, but it doesn't make much difference for the Klal in my opinion.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on September 25, 2019, 12:33:39 AM
At this point it seems Bibi is ready to split the premiership with Gantz 50-50. I've even seen reports that he is willing to give Gantz more than 2 years, as long as Bibi goes first.

So, how about a coalition of the right- 55 seats, PLUS Gantz breaks off from Lapid with his 15 seats (since regardless, most think those 2 will never run again together), and they split the Premiership 50-50.

It will be a stable coalition of 70, right wing/center, and Gantz is the Incumbent prime minister when they hit the polls in 4 years from now.
If he does a good job, he may even win reelection, and if not, the Likud will take it back in 4 years.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: justaregularguy on September 25, 2019, 01:42:19 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1789613/breaking-rivlin-taps-netanyahu-to-form-next-government.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 25, 2019, 01:54:23 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1789613/breaking-rivlin-taps-netanyahu-to-form-next-government.html

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5597084,00.html

Apparently Lapid is vetoing participation in any government headed by Netanyahu.

Some decent analysis (prior to the announcement by Rivlin) here: https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1034277 with the key IMHO being in part 2, and specifically:

Quote
התוצאה החשובה הזו מחדדת עוד יותר את התבונה שבהחלטת המפלגות החרדיות לדבוק בגוש הימין ולא להתפתות להצעות של 'כחול-לבן'. לנאמנות הזו יש משמעות רחבה הרבה יותר מן הממשלה הקרובה שתקום. היא משקפת את החיבור המתרקם בין חלקי הגוש המסורתי בישראל. חיבור שיש לו משמעות רבה לעתיד היהדות במדינה. את חשיבות החיבור הזה הסביר כבר לפני קרוב לשלושה עשורים הגראמ"מ שך זצ"ל ב'נאום השפנים' הזכור. גם אם לעיתים נראה שיש רווח פוליטי מהיר בהפרת החיבור הזה, יתרונותיו הערכיים והעמוקים חשובים יותר.

The fight isn't between right and left, or anything else, it is between those who want a connection to Jewishness, to those that want to create a modern, westernized Israeli devoid of all connection to Jewishness.

This was identified by Shimon Peres after the 1996 election:

Quote
בראיון שהעניק לעיתונאי דניאל בן סימון, מיד לאחר בחירות 1996 (הראיון נדפס בספרו "ארץ אחרת" ) נשאל פרס על תוצאות הבחירות ב-1996.
תשובת פרס: אנחנו הפסדנו.
בן סימון: מי זה אנחנו?
פרס: אנחנו הישראלים.
בן-סימון: ומי ניצח?
פרס: כל מי שאין לו מנטליות ישראלית.
בן-סימון: מי אלה?
פרס: תקרא לזה "יהודים".

http://www.zeevgalili.com/2007/06/433
https://www.makorrishon.co.il/nrg/online/1/ART2/683/557.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 25, 2019, 02:14:45 PM
Video of Rivlin explaining his actions, stating that unless major compromises will take place, no-one will be able to form a government, also suggesting to implement some legal changes empowering a custodial PM in case a PM is unable to function for whatever reason. Netanyahu calling for unity and reconciliation. Pledging to act fast to form a unity government, and if unable to do so on a fast track, to return the mandate to Rivlin, stating that if it won't be done in a fast track, it will eventually be done once the end of the road is reached.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 25, 2019, 06:52:28 PM
Gantz repeated that he won't sit with Bibi. Bibi should just turn around tomorrow and daysay Gantz is being unreasonable and return the mandate. Would be a legit move
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Pad18 on September 25, 2019, 07:37:41 PM
Gantz repeated that he won't sit with Bibi. Bibi should just turn around tomorrow and daysay Gantz is being unreasonable and return the mandate. Would be a legit move

or do a spin with Liberman, lol yes i like to dream ...

what a mess! I don't see the end of it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: justaregularguy on September 25, 2019, 08:42:44 PM
could someone explain in 3 sentences or less why rivlin gave the mandate to netanyahu when gantz won more seats? I know rivlin can technically give the mandate to anyone he wants but generally he gives to whoever has most seats... :o
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 25, 2019, 08:47:59 PM
could someone explain in 3 sentences or less why rivlin gave the mandate to netanyahu when gantz won more seats? I know rivlin can technically give the mandate to anyone he wants but generally he gives to whoever has most seats... :o
Because Bibi had 55 MKs recommending vs Gantz 54. All the MKs recommending Bibi said they would join his coalition. 10 of the MKs recommending Gantz said they wouldn't join his coalition.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: justaregularguy on September 25, 2019, 08:50:21 PM
Because Bibi had 55 MKs recommending vs Gantz 54. All the MKs recommending Bibi said they would join his coalition. 10 of the MKs recommending Gantz said they wouldn't join his coalition.
3 sentences. perfect :D
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 25, 2019, 09:02:54 PM
Gantz repeated that he won't sit with Bibi. Bibi should just turn around tomorrow and daysay Gantz is being unreasonable and return the mandate. Would be a legit move
The Israeli media is claiming he will do it. Rivlin said he won't necessarily give Gantz a shot afterwards, which probably means they will call a special election for PM only and Bibbi will win with a landslide.

https://www.mako.co.il/news-politics/2019_Q3/Article-08ff21db8696d61027.htm?sCh=3d385dd2dd5d4110&pId=1434139730
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on September 25, 2019, 10:30:58 PM


The Israeli media is claiming he will do it. Rivlin said he won't necessarily give Gantz a shot afterwards, which probably means they will call a special election for PM only

How will that work?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 25, 2019, 11:52:33 PM
which probably means they will call a special election for PM only and Bibbi will win with a landslide.

https://www.mako.co.il/news-politics/2019_Q3/Article-08ff21db8696d61027.htm?sCh=3d385dd2dd5d4110&pId=1434139730
By law, who has the power to call for such special election?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on September 26, 2019, 12:37:32 AM
We keep on hearing that the public will not want a 3rd election. I know that it sounds ridiculous to have 3 elections in 1 year, but in reality who is this public?

Yamina only got 7 seats. Im sure they feel they can do better.
Likud dropped from (35+4) 39 to 32. They might feel they can do better
Agudah just lost their 8th seat, so they would want to go again.
Labor who had 24 just 4 years ago, lost their voters to Blue and White. For sure if Blue and white would to split, Labor can only go up.
Meretz, didn't do particularly well..

So who doesn't want a round 3?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 26, 2019, 12:41:34 AM
By law, who has the power to call for such special election?

There is no such provision for a special election under current Israeli law.

The law is that if whoever was given the mandate in round 1 and 2 fails, it reverts to the Knesset to vote on one of its members to get the mandate. If that fails, the Knesset gets dissolved and a new general election is scheduled within 90 days.

https://he.m.wikisource.org/wiki/חוק-יסוד:_הממשלה

Quote
הטלת התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה
(א)
משיש לכונן ממשלה חדשה יטיל נשיא המדינה, לאחר שהתייעץ עם נציגי הסיעות בכנסת, את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה על אחד מחברי הכנסת שהסכים לכך; הנשיא יטיל את התפקיד כאמור בתוך שבעה ימים מיום פרסום תוצאות הבחירות או מיום היווצרות העילה לכינון ממשלה חדשה, ובמקרה של פטירת ראש הממשלה – בתוך 14 ימים מיום הפטירה.
(ב)
נתקיימה ההתייעצות לפני שנתכנסה הכנסת החדשה, יתייעץ הנשיא עם נציגי רשימות המועמדים שתיוצגנה בכנסת החדשה.
(ג)
סעיף זה לא יחול על כינון ממשלה בעקבות הבעת אי אמון לפי סעיף 28 או בעקבות הגשת בקשה לנשיא המדינה לפי סעיף 29(ב), ויחולו ההוראות המפורטות בסעיפים האמורים.
8. התקופה להרכבת ממשלה
לחבר הכנסת שנשיא המדינה הטיל עליו את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה לפי סעיף 7 נתונה למילוי תפקידו תקופה של 28 ימים; הנשיא רשאי להאריך תקופה זו בתקופות נוספות, ובלבד שלא יעלו יחד על 14 ימים.
9. הטלת התפקיד מחדש
(א)
עברה התקופה לפי סעיף 8 וחבר הכנסת לא הודיע לנשיא המדינה שהרכיב ממשלה, או שהודיע לו לפני כן שאין בידו להרכיב ממשלה, או שהציג ממשלה והכנסת דחתה את הבקשה להביע בה אמון לפי סעיף 13(ד), יטיל הנשיא את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה על חבר אחר של הכנסת שהודיע לנשיא שהוא מוכן לקבל את התפקיד, או יודיע ליושב ראש הכנסת שאינו רואה אפשרות להגיע להרכבת ממשלה, והכל בתוך שלושה ימים מיום שעברה התקופה או מיום הודעתו של חבר הכנסת שאין בידו להרכיב ממשלה, או מיום דחיית הבקשה להביע אמון בממשלה, לפי הענין.
(ב)
לפני שיטיל את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה לפי סעיף זה, או לפני שיודיע ליושב ראש הכנסת שאינו רואה אפשרות להגיע להרכבת ממשלה, רשאי הנשיא לחזור ולהתייעץ עם נציגי סיעות בכנסת.
(ג)
לחבר הכנסת שהתפקיד להרכיב ממשלה הוטל עליו לפי סעיף זה נתונה למילוי תפקידו תקופה של 28 ימים.
10. הטלת התפקיד לפי בקשת רוב חברי הכנסת
(א)
הודיע נשיא המדינה ליושב ראש הכנסת, לפי סעיף 9(א), שאינו רואה אפשרות להגיע להרכבת ממשלה, או שהטיל את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה על חבר הכנסת לפי אותו סעיף וחבר הכנסת לא הודיע לנשיא בתוך 28 ימים שהרכיב ממשלה או שהודיע לו לפני כן שאין בידו להרכיב ממשלה או שהציג ממשלה והכנסת דחתה את הבקשה להביע בה אמון לפי סעיף 13(ד), רשאים רוב חברי הכנסת לבקש מנשיא המדינה, בכתב, להטיל את התפקיד על חבר הכנסת פלוני, שהסכים לכך בכתב, והכל בתוך 21 ימים מיום הודעת הנשיא, או מהיום שבו עברה התקופה לפי סעיף 9(ג), או מיום הודעתו של חבר הכנסת שאין בידו להרכיב ממשלה, או מיום דחיית הבקשה להביע אמון בממשלה, לפי הענין.
(ב)
הוגשה לנשיא בקשה כאמור בסעיף קטן (א), יטיל הנשיא, בתוך יומיים, את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה על חבר הכנסת שצויין בבקשה.
(ג)
לחבר הכנסת שהתפקיד להרכיב ממשלה הוטל עליו לפי סעיף זה נתונה למילוי תפקידו תקופה של 14 ימים.
11. בחירות מוקדמות באין ממשלה
(א)
לא הוגשה בקשה כאמור בסעיף 10(א), או לא הרכיב חבר הכנסת ממשלה בתקופה הנתונה לו לפי סעיף 10(ג), או שהודיע לנשיא לפני כן שאין בידו להרכיב ממשלה, יודיע נשיא המדינה על כך ליושב ראש הכנסת.
(ב)
הודיע הנשיא כאמור בסעיף קטן (א), או שחבר הכנסת שהוטל עליו התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה לפי סעיף 10(א) הציג ממשלה והכנסת דחתה את הבקשה להביע בה אמון לפי סעיף 13(ד), יראו את הכנסת כאילו החליטה על התפזרותה לפני תום תקופת כהונתה, והבחירות לכנסת יתקיימו ביום ג׳ האחרון שלפני תום 90 הימים מיום הודעת הנשיא, או מיום דחיית הבקשה להביע אמון בממשלה, לפי הענין.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 26, 2019, 06:02:51 AM
We keep on hearing that the public will not want a 3rd election. I know that it sounds ridiculous to have 3 elections in 1 year, but in reality who is this public?

Yamina only got 7 seats. Im sure they feel they can do better.
Likud dropped from (35+4) 39 to 32. They might feel they can do better
Agudah just lost their 8th seat, so they would want to go again.
Labor who had 24 just 4 years ago, lost their voters to Blue and White. For sure if Blue and white would to split, Labor can only go up.
Meretz, didn't do particularly well..

So who doesn't want a round 3?
The public is the voting public. The people won't stand for it. They don't agree on anything other than that
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 26, 2019, 06:35:36 AM
The public is the voting public. The people won't stand for it. They don't agree on anything other than that
The question is by not standing for it do they vote in Bibbi or B&W. This may happen all over again in the 3rd elections. 
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 26, 2019, 07:44:10 AM
Another brilliant move by Netanyahu, asking to have his hearing streamed live.

The left thrives on secrecy and obscurity.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 26, 2019, 08:00:12 AM
There's still the possibility that members of the knesset could just decide to break with their parties and vote for someone.

This in theory could have been the case I nthe last election, but they voted to dissolve instead.

It should not be understated that Israeli is having financial problems, and elections make it worse (and themselves are costly).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 28, 2019, 02:19:24 PM
Gantz repeated that he won't sit with Bibi. Bibi should just turn around tomorrow and daysay Gantz is being unreasonable and return the mandate. Would be a legit move
Looks like this will happen tomorrow
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 28, 2019, 07:33:25 PM
Looks like this will happen tomorrow
I think it may be a bluff to get Lieberman/Peretz to capitulate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on September 28, 2019, 10:17:06 PM
I read recently, that while both candidates preferred to go 2nd, there is some benefit in the Knesset for the party that is tabbed first.
I don't remember what it is, or where I saw the article. Does anyone know what I'm talking about?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 28, 2019, 10:39:30 PM
I read recently, that while both candidates preferred to go 2nd, there is some benefit in the Knesset for the party that is tabbed first.
I don't remember what it is, or where I saw the article. Does anyone know what I'm talking about?

That was the initial thought, because they get to appoint Knesset committees, but the AG said that if the mandate is returned and reassigned to someone else, the committees can get reappointed.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on September 28, 2019, 11:11:20 PM
That was the initial thought, because they get to appoint Knesset committees, but the AG said that if the mandate is returned and reassigned to someone else, the committees can get reappointed.
Oh.
I was thinking that Bibi will wait for the Knesset to go into session this week, so he gets the committees, and then right after he will return the mandate.
But now I was seeing reports he may return it as soon as today. Although, im not sure what he will gain, because I doubt that Rivlin will tap Gantz already before Rosh Hashana.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 29, 2019, 09:56:38 AM
Oh.
I was thinking that Bibi will wait for the Knesset to go into session this week, so he gets the committees, and then right after he will return the mandate.
But now I was seeing reports he may return it as soon as today. Although, im not sure what he will gain, because I doubt that Rivlin will tap Gantz already before Rosh Hashana.

Most recent reports are that Netanyahu and Gantz are scheduled to meet face to face on Wednesday in last ditch effort to resolve the impasse.

As far as what is there to gain by returning it to Rivlin ASAP, there's lots to gain from a PR standpoint, while maintaining his position as transitional PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on September 29, 2019, 01:21:08 PM
As far as what is there to gain by returning it to Rivlin ASAP, there's lots to gain from a PR standpoint.

Won't people see it as him trying to get new elections?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 01, 2019, 05:21:57 PM
Polls are showing more people blame Bibbi for the failure than Gantz, which is probably why Gantz cancelled the meeting.

I think Bibbil will return the mandate early next week, he's more likely to get Lieberman/Peretz/Gantz to blink in the 21 days left before elections. Rivlin will probably not give the mandate to Gantz, although that would probably play to Bibbi's favor as Gantz wouldn't be able to hide behinds his mask of silence and it would finally become evident what a group of clowns they are

Don't see how this ends, even if the Likud loses 5 seats in the 3rd elections Bibbi can create the same impasse.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on October 01, 2019, 11:55:57 PM
Correct. I can't see how Bibi loses on a 3rd election.
If he picks up 6 seats, he is pm all by himself.
If Gantz picks up 6 seats, he still isn't pm without a unity gov with Likud.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on October 02, 2019, 12:15:30 AM
Everyone is expecting the outcome of the hearing to be a game changer.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on October 02, 2019, 12:22:51 AM
For months we have been hearing that he will be indicted.
What are the chances that he won't?
What crime is it to ask the press for better coverage? Cmon!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on October 02, 2019, 09:58:45 AM
What crime is it to ask the press for better coverage? Cmon!
The crime isn't to ask for better coverage, it's to offer something (specifically government action) in exchange for that coverage.

Not saying he did, but that's the charge
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on October 02, 2019, 04:28:45 PM
After the hearings next week, Mandebilt announces he intends to indict Bibi. After that, things are very different
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on October 02, 2019, 10:33:10 PM
Mandelblit is not planning to announce anything until December.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on October 02, 2019, 10:41:56 PM
After the hearings next week, Mandebilt announces he intends to indict Bibi. After that, things are very different

Do you actually believe the things you write?
If you listen to what someone who knows a thing or two says, you might not be so convinced in what you wrote.

https://youtu.be/3VGxPPZ1WNM

And while I don't necessarily think it will have to wait until December, there are reasons to believe he won't announce anything immediately (except if the evidence is so overwhelming towards promptly dropping all the indictments).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on October 03, 2019, 12:38:00 AM
My pov is that if they had what to indict Bibi over, they would have already.

Personally don't care, he's a good pm and there are no alternatives. He's better than anyone in his party etc ..

Next election no otzama.

I feel likud gains a few and right wing Bloc gains a few..

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on October 03, 2019, 12:57:23 AM
Everyone is expecting the outcome of the hearing to be a game changer.
You want to borrow one of my hotkeys?  :)

***BOMBSHELL ALERT***
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on October 03, 2019, 01:01:40 AM
If there is a next election, Bibi needs to make sure there are other secular right wing parties for people to vote for (especially if there is an indictment hanging over him).
There were too many center/right voters who couldn't get themselves to vote for Bibi, yet wouldn't vote for a religious Yamina party. Those votes defected to Lieberman, or even Blue and White. Arguably, all of Kachlon's voters (and Kachlon was no fan of Bibi to begin with,as that originally caused him to break away from Likud and make his own party) didn't vote for Likud and instead looked elsewhere. But with no other alternative than Lieberman or Blue and White, they voted there.

So he needs to make sure there is a secular right party, whether its Kachlon or Shaked ect, that can pass the threshold, yet unlike Lieberman, will join him, and won't be anti chareidi. There are too many voters who are ok with Bibi, yet aren't running to vote for him, and need a platform to vote for a center/right party.

Otzma, only costed the right 1 seat in the end, but they shouldn't run, and instead merge with the religious right, and add 2 seats there.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on October 03, 2019, 01:42:18 AM
84k votes is 3 seats
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on October 03, 2019, 11:30:28 PM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/696661
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on October 04, 2019, 10:10:21 AM
If there is a next election, Bibi needs to make sure there are other secular right wing parties for people to vote for (especially if there is an indictment hanging over him).
There were too many center/right voters who couldn't get themselves to vote for Bibi, yet wouldn't vote for a religious Yamina party. Those votes defected to Lieberman, or even Blue and White. Arguably, all of Kachlon's voters (and Kachlon was no fan of Bibi to begin with,as that originally caused him to break away from Likud and make his own party) didn't vote for Likud and instead looked elsewhere. But with no other alternative than Lieberman or Blue and White, they voted there.

So he needs to make sure there is a secular right party, whether its Kachlon or Shaked ect, that can pass the threshold, yet unlike Lieberman, will join him, and won't be anti chareidi. There are too many voters who are ok with Bibi, yet aren't running to vote for him, and need a platform to vote for a center/right party.

Otzma, only costed the right 1 seat in the end, but they shouldn't run, and instead merge with the religious right, and add 2 seats there.
In the first round, Yamin hachadash didn't pass alone, so they remerged with BY, which at least in part, meant Otzmah was out.

At this point, unity is the best option, especially with complications from a 3 way rotation no longer practical. I think the plan is hopefully by stalling enough, the charges against bibi will be dropped, and then Likud/BW (who aren't so different ideologically) can sit together in rotation.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on October 05, 2019, 09:36:26 PM
In the first round, Yamin hachadash didn't pass alone, so they remerged with BY, which at least in part, meant Otzmah was out.

At this point, unity is the best option, especially with complications from a 3 way rotation no longer practical. I think the plan is hopefully by stalling enough, the charges against bibi will be dropped, and then Likud/BW (who aren't so different ideologically) can sit together in rotation.
The issue with Unity, is what happens with Shabbos, draft, schools ect.
Of course ideologically they can sit together, but if it excludes the 23 seats of Agudah, Shas and Yamina, there will be big problems, since Lapid and Lieberman have made their intentions clear.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gozalim on October 06, 2019, 05:41:35 AM
The issue with Unity, is what happens with Shabbos, draft, schools ect.
Of course ideologically they can sit together, but if it excludes the 23 seats of Agudah, Shas and Yamina, there will be big problems, since Lapid and Lieberman have made their intentions clear.
so the priorities of a strong Israeli state and of Torah Judaism are at odds. That's new
[ducks]
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on October 18, 2019, 10:55:00 AM
2. They have publicly pledged to support Netanyahu in the previous elections. While this is a new round, and they might be a little more cautious here, I doubt it will change. They also know that Netanyahu is by far more capable than any of the other clowns. I think his successor might end up being Barkat, but that's years down the road, not now. If Israel would have direct personal election of the Prime Minister, Netanyahu would win it even if he stayed silent the entire campaign.

https://mobile.kikar.co.il/abroad/article/333202

Barkat seems to see things similarly.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 08, 2019, 02:42:13 PM
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: skyguy918 on November 09, 2019, 08:20:30 PM
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.

Lol. Totally OT, but my grandmother always loves to tell a story about Auman's 'genius' from their time in the same circles while in school in Boston. A bunch of orthodox students shared an apt, and the landlord kept the thermostat behind a lock, and much too low. His 'geonus' was to put a bag of frozen vegetable on it to trick it into keeping the heat on longer. :-P
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on November 09, 2019, 11:13:41 PM
Lol. Totally OT, but my grandmother always loves to tell a story about Auman's 'genius' from their time in the same circles while in school in Boston. A bunch of orthodox students shared an apt, and the landlord kept the thermostat behind a lock, and much too low. His 'geonus' was to put a bag of frozen vegetable on it to trick it into keeping the heat on longer. :-P

We did that in yeshive for the AC. We took a cup of hot water and put it into a hat which we hung on the sensor.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: itunes on November 11, 2019, 09:13:14 AM
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Liberman-put-Netanyahu-and-Gantz-in-the-prisoners-dilemma-607509
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: skyguy918 on November 11, 2019, 09:44:40 AM
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Liberman-put-Netanyahu-and-Gantz-in-the-prisoners-dilemma-607509
The funny thing is, if likud and b&w made a unity govt, they wouldn't actually need Lieberman to get the necessary seats. They wouldn't need anyone else for that matter, strictly speaking.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 11, 2019, 10:23:25 AM
The funny thing is, if likud and b&w made a unity govt, they wouldn't actually need Lieberman to get the necessary seats. They wouldn't need anyone else for that matter, strictly speaking.
It's not possible. Even with Lieberman, there no way gantz gets it without working with Arabs, and I'm pretty sure Lieberman won't let that happen.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: skyguy918 on November 11, 2019, 10:42:14 AM
It's not possible. Even with Lieberman, there no way gantz gets it without working with Arabs, and I'm pretty sure Lieberman won't let that happen.
What's not possible?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 11, 2019, 10:46:38 AM
What's not possible?
The math.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: skyguy918 on November 11, 2019, 11:21:50 AM
The math.
The math works just fine. I'm well aware that none of the options, including unity, seem more likely than not. My point is that Lieberman has clearly structured his gambit in a way that incentivizes  a unity gov - that's what he's been asking for the whole time. But if Likud and B&W did find a way to sit together and make a unity government, they wouldn't need Lieberman's seats to do that. 33+32 is 65, which is more than 60 last time I checked.

It sounds like you're referring to the scenario where Gantz 'compromises' and Netanyahu doesn't - that it doesn't work because it requires B&W to bring both YB and the Joint List to sit together. I agree with that, but it has nothing to do with the scenario I was talking about.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 11, 2019, 11:24:33 AM
It sounds like you're referring to the scenario where Gantz 'compromises' and Netanyahu doesn't - that it doesn't work because it requires B&W to bring both YB and the Joint List to sit together. I agree with that, but it has nothing to do with the scenario I was talking about.

Yet if Gantz "compromises" why would Netanyahu need to do anything. Gantz's proposed "compromise" keeps Netanyahu as PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 11, 2019, 11:26:06 AM
The math works just fine. I'm well aware that none of the options, including unity, seem more likely than not. My point is that Lieberman has clearly structured his gambit in a way that incentivizes  a unity gov - that's what he's been asking for the whole time. But if Likud and B&W did find a way to sit together and make a unity government, they wouldn't need Lieberman's seats to do that. 33+32 is 65, which is more than 60 last time I checked.

It sounds like you're referring to the scenario where Gantz 'compromises' and Netanyahu doesn't - that it doesn't work because it requires B&W to bring both YB and the Joint List to sit together. I agree with that, but it has nothing to do with the scenario I was talking about.
Yes, I was commenting on Lieberman's prisoner's dilemma.

In theory if you're go unity, you'd rather have more seats so that you can neutralize the strongest ideologues on both sides. A 74 seat government can pass wider legislation than a 65 seat one can.

There also is a scenario where some of the 65 resign from their parties in opposition to unity.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 11, 2019, 11:27:20 AM
Yet if Gantz "compromises" why would Netanyahu need to do anything. Gantz's proposed "compromise" keeps Netanyahu as PM.
Lieberman thinks unity only works without charedim/right wing block.

Chareidim are a wild card - could they sit with Lapid as a high ranking minister but with no plan to be PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 11, 2019, 11:33:30 AM
Chareidim are a wild card - could they sit with Lapid as a high ranking minister but with no plan to be PM.

-1

Chareidim are the most predictable.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 11, 2019, 11:33:55 AM
-1

Chareidim are the most predictable.
Will they sit with Lapid?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on November 20, 2019, 08:58:14 AM
Here we go again....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aro123 on November 20, 2019, 09:04:17 AM
title will need to be updated to 2020
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on November 20, 2019, 11:41:13 AM
title will need to be updated to 2020

And to make it "elections" plural
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 20, 2019, 11:44:53 AM
And to make it "elections" plural

Yeah, keep it plural and just put starting in 2019, as there's no indication that another round will have any different outcome.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 20, 2019, 12:11:36 PM
There's still a 21 day period in which anyone can get 61 signatures. I would not be shocked if bibi gets 61, which would then give him 14 more days to actually form a government.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on November 20, 2019, 12:18:01 PM
Yeah, keep it plural and just put starting in 2019, as there's no indication that another round will have any different outcome.
Maybe they'll get rid of the Lieberman clown. I don't see what anyone would vote for someone who keeps holding the country back. Nevermind that his whole platform at this point is just hate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 20, 2019, 01:06:57 PM
Maybe they'll get rid of the Lieberman clown. I don't see what anyone would vote for someone who keeps holding the country back. Nevermind that his whole platform at this point is just hate.
His base likes him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yammer on November 20, 2019, 01:11:05 PM
Maybe they'll get rid of the Lieberman clown. I don't see what anyone would vote for someone who keeps holding the country back. Nevermind that his whole platform at this point is just hate.
His base likes him.
+1

And he came across as someone that puts country before himself.... A strong centric govt of Bibbi- Ganz while claiming that he's ok staying outside...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 20, 2019, 01:12:54 PM
Once Lieberman declared support for a direct election for PM, the end is obvious. There is a solid majority to pass that, there will be a special election for PM, bibbi and the right will win again, ובא לציון גואל
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 20, 2019, 01:25:30 PM
Once Lieberman declared support for a direct election for PM, the end is obvious. There is a solid majority to pass that, there will be a special election for PM, bibbi and the right will win again, ובא לציון גואל
Not happening. Even Lieberman conceded that it cannot happen in this stage with a transitional government in place. Only once a permanent government is installed can the system be changed.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on November 20, 2019, 01:33:32 PM
+1

And he came across as someone that puts country before himself.... A strong centric govt of Bibbi- Ganz while claiming that he's ok staying outside...
Like by saying he would support a govt including Arabs?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on November 20, 2019, 01:35:38 PM
So change it just for this election.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 20, 2019, 01:52:01 PM
So change it just for this election.
I think it's pretty evident bibi would win in a head to head vs gantz.

He probably already has a majority, and I'm sure a lot of Arabs will abstain.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on November 20, 2019, 06:20:00 PM
In a direct election, how does it work with the rest of the Knesset?

Lets say, there was a direct election now, and Bibi beats Gantz, how will Bibi be able to pass any bills for the next 4 years, if he only has 55 out of 120 supporting him for anything?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on November 20, 2019, 06:27:02 PM
I'm no expert, but is it time to switch to directly electing a PM and a party separately?
Said this 2 months ago. I don't see another way forward.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 20, 2019, 06:37:47 PM
In a direct election, how does it work with the rest of the Knesset?

Lets say, there was a direct election now, and Bibi beats Gantz, how will Bibi be able to pass any bills for the next 4 years, if he only has 55 out of 120 supporting him for anything?

Which is part of the reason they did away with it. Though back then the minimum threshold to enter the Knesset was much lower.

I think that having a two round election might be a better option, but there again it's all up to the details.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on November 20, 2019, 07:11:29 PM
In a direct election, how does it work with the rest of the Knesset?

Lets say, there was a direct election now, and Bibi beats Gantz, how will Bibi be able to pass any bills for the next 4 years, if he only has 55 out of 120 supporting him for anything?

It can give cover to someone (Labor?) to join a government under Bibi. None of them want to be blamed for allowing Bibi to remain PM, but once that is decided they may take whatever they can get in exchange for supporting him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on November 21, 2019, 11:03:22 AM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/272053
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: skyguy918 on November 21, 2019, 11:56:37 AM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/272053
Netanyahu charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/272056
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on November 21, 2019, 01:55:15 PM
Netanyahu charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/272056

Gonna pop some popcorn and sit back and watch...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Baruch on November 21, 2019, 02:43:34 PM
Netanyahu charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/272056
Will this effect Election round 3?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on November 22, 2019, 12:03:22 PM
Bibi in theory can stay PM for years to come.
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Netanyahu-can-ask-for-immunity-from-prosecution-but-it-wont-come-easy-608702
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on November 22, 2019, 12:22:57 PM
Was it circumstantial that the indictments were announced right at the beginning of the 21 days? Or was it intentional to inflict damage on Bibi? (or some other reason?)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 22, 2019, 12:26:54 PM
There are now 2 scenarios -

1. The bibi indictment gives Likud MKs the cover to break up Likud and 61 MKs are able to agree to either a Gantz PM/other Likud PM/rotation of the 2.

2. Israel goes to 3rd elections.
2a. Someone else in Likud is top of ticket, paving the way for a a government, as B&W would drop it's condition to not sit in a coalition with bibi

2b. Bibi remains the head of Likud and Israel remains in the deadlock unless Lieberman is willing to sit with the charedim or Likud loses so many votes, that a center-left coalition is possible.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 22, 2019, 01:42:58 PM
Was it circumstantial that the indictments were announced right at the beginning of the 21 days? Or was it intentional to inflict damage on Bibi? (or some other reason?)

According to Bibi both the timing of the initial announcement of an indictment subject to a hearing, as well as the timing of the current post hearing announcement were intentional.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 22, 2019, 01:44:50 PM
According to Bibi both the timing of the initial announcement of an indictment subject to a hearing, as well as the timing of the current post hearing announcement were intentional.
Counter argument - once they knew they were going to indict him, best to do it when there's still a chance to avoid an expensive 3rd election as opposed to waiting until its too late. I think it's only good for the country for this news to be announced as early as possible.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2019, 01:47:54 PM
Would've done much more damage to Bibbi if announced a week ago.

The AG cannot file the suit in court until a government is formed to approve it. Any lawsuit against a sitting Kenneset member requires the sign off of ועדת הכנסת, which doesn't exist until there's a government.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 22, 2019, 01:53:25 PM
B&W plus Lieberman are currently 41. So they only need 20 seats from thr left (11), the right (7) and Likud (32). I think this announcement makes it possible for 20 out of that 50 MK group to come together - less if UTJ pls shas swap out with Lieberman. Remember, the bottom of the Likud list is at risk if there's a new elections and voters move away from Likud over this.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on November 23, 2019, 03:13:22 PM
Has been said before in different words.

However, the game board is a little different at this stage.

Netanyahu can simply wait it out, allowing Gantz to make a fool of himself a second time around (first time was in April), trying to no avail to form a government. In the interim Mandelblit holds the hearing and the threat of indictment is dropped, and all of the sudden the game board looks different yet again, but this time giving an advantage to Netanyahu.

BTW, all along Netanyahu is still the transitional PM.

I'm still confused why you were so sure that the indictment was going to be dropped
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on November 24, 2019, 08:23:36 AM
B&W plus Lieberman are currently 41. So they only need 20 seats from thr left (11), the right (7) and Likud (32). I think this announcement makes it possible for 20 out of that 50 MK group to come together - less if UTJ pls shas swap out with Lieberman. Remember, the bottom of the Likud list is at risk if there's a new elections and voters move away from Likud over this.

Voters are not going to move away from Likud, they have no where to go, and especially now that they saw Gantz almost form a Govt with the Arabs they would never go there.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on November 24, 2019, 09:40:23 AM
Voters are not going to move away from Likud, they have no where to go, and especially now that they saw Gantz and Leiberman almost form a Govt with the Arabs they would never go there.
FTFY
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 24, 2019, 09:43:07 AM
Voters are not going to move away from Likud, they have no where to go, and especially now that they saw Gantz almost form a Govt with the Arabs they would never go there.
Nah. Hatred and jealousy towards Netanyahu are stronger than reason. (I also find it hard to believe that there isn't big money coming from George Soros and his ilk funding this fight).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 24, 2019, 06:54:26 PM
I'm still confused why you were so sure that the indictment was going to be dropped

I don't think I indicated that I was sure that the indictment would be dropped as much as you were sure that it will stand after the hearing. I did give it a high probability of happening and was obviously wrong in my assessment.

Deciding to indict on a case that is very questionable on whether it would prevail at trial, especially when it interferes with a democratic process, isn't the kind of slam dunk that you seem to have indicated when you wrote that the chances of not indicting are infinitesimally small. You might want to listen to the following (assuming you have a good enough command of the Hebrew langauge):

https://youtu.be/fvmId8XUom8
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 24, 2019, 07:14:24 PM


@Dan Yossi Bailin (of Oslo infamy) explains here what was wrong with direct PM vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 30, 2019, 06:18:51 PM
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.

http://www.olam-katan.co.il/כתבות/item/6053-ראיון-אומן
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on December 03, 2019, 02:56:28 PM
I saw some articles that said that Bibi would be fine in a unity govt, as long as he gets just 4-5 months first, and then hands it over to Gantz.

I don't see a unity gov happening, but would someone care to explain to me, what Bibi has from only 4-5 months? He can sit back, go to 3rd elections, and he has 5 months just like that until then, and if he wins....
On the other hand, once he would give over the reins to Gantz, he is no longer PM, and the can stand trial. So what is in it for him?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on December 04, 2019, 03:58:14 AM
From what I heard he said 6 months, so he gains like 6 weeks
Still doesn't add up
That's why blue and white say they don't believe him
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on December 04, 2019, 04:37:48 AM
From what I heard he said 6 months, so he gains like 6 weeks
Still doesn't add up
That's why blue and white say they don't believe him

Based on what I heard, it would leave him enough time to pass through the annexation bills that is needed...

Latest this morning is that YB may actually join the right wing govt and they are starting to blame B&W for the lack of the unity govt...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 04, 2019, 05:38:45 AM
I saw some articles that said that Bibi would be fine in a unity govt, as long as he gets just 4-5 months first, and then hands it over to Gantz.

I don't see a unity gov happening, but would someone care to explain to me, what Bibi has from only 4-5 months? He can sit back, go to 3rd elections, and he has 5 months just like that until then, and if he wins....
On the other hand, once he would give over the reins to Gantz, he is no longer PM, and the can stand trial. So what is in it for him?
It's a bluff. But the idea is that the government would break apart after 6 months, as would B&W itself
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on December 05, 2019, 01:07:25 AM
At this point all the big parties know they are going to elections.
Why don't the big parties come together today, and dissolve the Knesset today, so that the election campaign can get underway earlier?
Is it because Bibi has no incentive to get the clock moving?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on December 05, 2019, 02:56:21 PM
Why do it actively when that will make you the villain who wanted third elections, when it can happen passively and not be your fault?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 11, 2019, 09:06:46 PM
Next round scheduled for Mar 2. Unless there's some kind of exogenous shock, there's no reason to believe that we will see anything but d้jเ vu all over again.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 11, 2019, 09:23:19 PM
What happened to direct elections?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on December 11, 2019, 09:26:48 PM
What happened to direct elections?
The knesset offically disbanded so I don't think they really have that option.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 11, 2019, 09:30:03 PM
What happened to direct elections?
You really expected a transitional government with a hung parliament to pass such a law.  ::)

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 11, 2019, 09:34:16 PM
Doesn't need to be a law. Make it a one-off.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 11, 2019, 09:42:40 PM
Doesn't need to be a law. Make it a one-off.

In a place of law and order, a one-off requires legislation.  ::)

As an aside, I just saw a comment on one of the Israeli websites saying: "what difference will another round make, nothing will change until they reintroduce good old election fraud. "
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 11, 2019, 09:47:02 PM
In a place of law and order, a one-off requires legislation.  ::)
It's a lot easier to pass one-off legislation than permanent change. Blame would go on those that refuse to find a way out of this insanity.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 11, 2019, 09:49:56 PM
It's a lot easier to pass one-off legislation than permanent change. Blame would go on those that refuse to find a way out of this insanity.

How would direct PM election be a way out? What can he do without the parliament?

Did Boris Johnson have an easy job once he was appointed PM without full backing in parliament?

And why would any of the players vote for it? What's in it for them?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 11, 2019, 10:01:47 PM
How would direct PM election be a way out? What can he do without the parliament?

And why would any of the players vote for it? What's in it for them?
This isn't rocket science. With a directly elected PM there wouldn't be drama about who will be PM first. Alliances will be much easier to make with that off the table.

If you don't go for it you'll be seen as causing an endless elections cycle, which will cost you votes.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on December 12, 2019, 02:36:00 AM
Meanwhile King Bibi will stay PM through all these rounds of elections. He doesnt care :).....Benenet is Defense Minister Smotrich is Transportation Minister Deri is well Deri and the right wing stays in power.

If March brings no change (which seems to be the case according to every poll) then Bibi will be PM through September....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on December 12, 2019, 07:44:24 AM
And the country will go bankrupt. This is ridiculous already. And there is no way out. We should just schedule the September elections already
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 16, 2019, 04:18:35 PM
This might be the wrong thread, because it will be 2020 but...

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Culture/Ben-and-Jerrys-Israel-proposes-a-new-flavor-Peace-Love-and-Elections-611073
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 16, 2019, 04:29:59 PM
And there is no way out.
Sure there is. I've been saying it since day 1.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 16, 2019, 04:42:03 PM
Sure there is. I've been saying it since day 1.

OK. Let's play it through. Let's assume that in any of the last two elections there was a separate vote for PM and Netanyahu won.

B&W that was founded (and IMHO we might find out one day how it was funded) for the sole purpose of defeating Netanyahu, doesn't play along.

Lieberman, who is personally responsible for bringing about the last 2 rounds and would be happy to see Netanyahu defeated, doesn't play along.

Labor (or whatever they are called in their current incarnation) don't play along.

Arabs - well that's a hot potato even for the left wing.

Netanyahu is PM without a majority in the Knesset, with an overhang of an indictment.

Now what?

Remember, your solution was tried before and was done away with pretty fast.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on December 16, 2019, 04:42:50 PM
If bibi would resign, there could have been a unity govt after the 1st or 2nd election.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 16, 2019, 04:45:56 PM
OK. Let's play it through. Let's assume that in any of the last two elections there was a separate vote for PM and Netanyahu won.

B&W that was founded (and IMHO we might find out one day how it was funded) for the sole purpose of defeating Netanyahu, doesn't play along.

Lieberman, who is personally responsible for bringing about the last 2 rounds and would be happy to see Netanyahu defeated, doesn't play along.

Labor (or whatever they are called in their current incarnation) don't play along.

Arabs - well that's a hot potato even for the left wing.

Netanyahu is PM without a majority in the Knesset, with an overhang of an indictment.

Now what?

Remember, your solution was tried before and was done away with pretty fast.
It they wouldn't play along they would get voted out. Or a new PM would win if they were seen as the problem.
Self correcting problem either way.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on December 16, 2019, 04:49:32 PM
It they wouldn't play along they would get voted out. Or a new PM would win if they were seen as the problem.
Self correcting problem either way.
Why would that happen more if there are direct PM elections?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on December 16, 2019, 04:53:36 PM
It they wouldn't play along they would get voted out. Or a new PM would win if they were seen as the problem.
Self correcting problem either way.
Bibi wouldn't get 50% of the electorate, it would at most a plurality. Even if there's a runoff, I think most B&W voters want them to stand up to bibi, otherwise they would have lost a lot between elections 1 and 2.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 16, 2019, 04:54:12 PM
Why would that happen more if there are direct PM elections?
Because most of the fighting is over who will be PM. Without that being on the table they would find a way to work together.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 16, 2019, 04:54:31 PM
It they wouldn't play along they would get voted out. Or a new PM would win if they were seen as the problem.
Self correcting problem either way.

Voted out by who? Whoever voted for them voted for their stated policies. The voting public is bitterly divided between the Only Netanyahu camp and the Get Rid of Netanyahu camp. The Arab parties have their own agenda and issues, and Liberman is in a league of his own.

The only way out is to clearly and unequivocally define what the fight is about. It is about the future of the State of Israel, whether it will be on a path of a Jewish State (whatever that may mean) or a State of Its Citizens. And IMHO the UTJ (and others) should focus their campaign efforts ON THOSE THEY KNOW WILL NOT VOTE FOR THEM, but want a Jewish State and will not vote for any party that wasn't part of the Right Wing Bloc this time around. Also some on the right need to get their act together and figure out how to waste the least possible number of votes.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 16, 2019, 04:55:29 PM
Bibi wouldn't get 50% of the electorate, it would at most a plurality. Even if there's a runoff, I think most B&W voters want them to stand up to bibi, otherwise they would have lost a lot between elections 1 and 2.
Whether a majority is needed is a separate matter.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 16, 2019, 04:57:03 PM
Because most of the fighting is over who will be PM. Without that being on the table they would find a way to work together.

True. But in reality that is just smoke and mirrors. Was V15 also just about who will be PM or about the direction of the country?

Legislation was introduced so that the major funders of V15 cannot overtly fund their fight, but we might find out some day how they managed to get around it. There's nothing that holds B&W together other than MAJOR funding for that purpose.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on December 16, 2019, 05:00:15 PM
Whoever voted for them voted for their stated policies. The voting public is bitterly divided between the Only Netanyahu camp and the Get Rid of Netanyahu camp.
Which one?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 16, 2019, 05:01:20 PM
Which one?

Their policy in regards to Netanyahu.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on December 16, 2019, 05:03:21 PM
Whether a majority is needed is a separate matter.
If only 40% of the country elects bibi as PM, I'm not sure that compelles B&W to join the coalition as they can claim thy represent part of the other 60%.

The only way direct election of the PM helps is if kne candidate has a clear mandate of 50% from a wide field.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 16, 2019, 05:07:00 PM
If only 40% of the country elects bibi as PM, I'm not sure that compelles B&W to join the coalition as they can claim thy represent part of the other 60%.

The only way direct election of the PM helps is if kne candidate has a clear mandate of 50% from a wide field.
No 50% of popular vote requirement in the US. Why does it need to be a requirement? They don't have to join, but odds are they will suffer if they're seen as the obstacle.

Either way, I don't see what the problem is with a runoff of the top 2.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on December 16, 2019, 05:08:13 PM
No 50% of popular vote requirement in the US. Why does it need to be a requirement?
The US does not have a parliamentary system. Also just take a look at Washington.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on December 16, 2019, 05:15:39 PM
No 50% of popular vote requirement in the US. Why does it need to be a requirement? They don't have to join, but odds are they will suffer if they're seen as the obstacle.

Either way, I don't see what the problem is with a runoff of the top 2.
My point is a political one. If bibi wins a direct election without a majority, I don't think it forces gantz to join a coalition politically. I'm not sure how a minority government PM is any better.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 16, 2019, 05:29:32 PM
My point is a political one. If bibi wins a direct election without a majority, I don't think it forces gantz to join a coalition politically. I'm not sure how a minority government PM is any better.
Meh.
In the runoff he would have a majority or he would not and someone else would.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yammer on December 17, 2019, 08:20:30 AM
The US does not have a parliamentary system. Also just take a look at Washington.
Canada has been running with a minority govt for some time now. Votes are gathered by a bill to bill basis.

And if ( barely )works in the US that has a 2 party system, it can work in a parliamentry system. It will simply cost the taxpayer more.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on February 03, 2020, 01:00:07 PM
Well the topic here needs to be 2020 Israeli election.

So NEtanyahu goes to Africa meets with the Uganda PM the Sudanese FM and almost gets a commitment to open an Embassy in Jerusalem. Can anyone see Gantz having this ability to meet world leaders on this level? What in the world does anyone see in the man (outside being the Joe Biden of Israel)?!?!?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Dan on February 03, 2020, 01:03:58 PM
Well the topic here needs to be 2020 Israeli election.
Title updated.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: CountValentine on February 03, 2020, 01:05:27 PM
Does the peace plan announced help Bibi?
Does being joined at the hip with Trump help him?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on February 03, 2020, 01:10:26 PM
Does the peace plan announced help Bibi?
Does being joined at the hip with Trump help him?

Problem is those who did not vote for Bibi wont vote for him this round regardless of what he accomplishes. They have a full blown hate agenda against him. What this does help him is in his negotiations with YB when the time comes. I do not think there will be an election in the next 5years with a clear victory for the right (remember the left have zero chance of forming a govt given they have max 45 seats). But Lieberman cannot turn down Netanyahu offer if he is offering annexation as it will make Lieberman look very weak in any further elections.

The part that surprises me is the Shas/Gimmel vs YB, I thought it would simmer down so there would be a hope for a coalition.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: zh cohen on February 03, 2020, 01:12:58 PM
I haven't been following closely, but I think Bibi is a victim of his own success. Everyone admits that he's doing a very good job as Prime Minister, but thing have been going so well for so long that it's become the norm and people don't realize that they are risking that because "it's someone else's turn"
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: CountValentine on February 03, 2020, 01:14:43 PM
Problem is those who did not vote for Bibi wont vote for him this round regardless of what he accomplishes. They have a full blown hate agenda against him. What this does help him is in his negotiations with YB when the time comes. I do not think there will be an election in the next 5years with a clear victory for the right (remember the left have zero chance of forming a govt given they have max 45 seats). But Lieberman cannot turn down Netanyahu offer if he is offering annexation as it will make Lieberman look very weak in any further elections.

The part that surprises me is the Shas/Gimmel vs YB, I thought it would simmer down so there would be a hope for a coalition.
Does Trump carry any weight or a non-issue?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: zh cohen on February 03, 2020, 01:16:18 PM
Does being joined at the hip with Trump help him?

It's another data point on his phenomenal success in foreign policy.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on February 03, 2020, 01:16:40 PM
Does Trump carry any weight or a non-issue?

Trump has a 95% approval in Israel and still has not helped him in the past.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: CountValentine on February 03, 2020, 01:18:27 PM
It's another data point on his phenomenal success in foreign policy.
Please lets not go there. We have the other thread for that.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: CountValentine on February 03, 2020, 01:18:48 PM
Trump has a 95% approval in Israel and still has not helped him in the past.
Interesting.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: zh cohen on February 03, 2020, 01:19:26 PM
The part that surprises me is the Shas/Gimmel vs YB, I thought it would simmer down so there would be a hope for a coalition.

Hate is a very powerful political weapon that has gotten Liberman this far. What made you thing he would stop using it?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: zh cohen on February 03, 2020, 01:20:11 PM
Please lets not go there. We have the other thread for that.

I'm talking about Bibi's success not Trump's.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: CountValentine on February 03, 2020, 01:20:47 PM
I'm talking about Bibi's success not Trump's.
Sorry.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 03, 2020, 02:11:50 PM
Hate is a very powerful political weapon that has gotten Liberman this far. What made you thing he would stop using it?

Indeed. This election (and the past two) have absolutely nothing to do with anything in the geopolitical arena. There are only two items that fuel the campaigns and the elections: 1. Jealousy of, and hatred towards Netanyahu, and 2. The Jewish identity of the state (or in other words to what extent does the state become disconnected from Judaism and Jewish roots).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yonah on February 03, 2020, 02:52:19 PM
Does Trump carry any weight or a non-issue?

IINM, there is a skyscraper in Tel-aviv with a Bibi ad that shows a picture of Bibi and Trump shaking hands, and the Tagline - "In a different League". Clearly, Bibi thinks it helps, as his campaign would've put up the sign. But what I can't tell you:

- If this as was designed to help bibi's campaign to build his relationship with trump
- IIRC, this was from before the first election, so clearly it hasn't helped as much as he'd like at the ballot box. i.e. the ad is preaching to the choir of people who already like both Bibi and Trump.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yonah on February 03, 2020, 02:56:07 PM
Indeed. This election (and the past two) have absolutely nothing to do with anything in the geopolitical arena. There are only two items that fuel the campaigns and the elections: 1. Jealousy of, and hatred towards Netanyahu, and 2. The Jewish identity of the state (or in other words to what extent does the state become disconnected from Judaism and Jewish roots).

To add to this - I think that Lieberman has a double-sided hatred going on, which is causing him and his 10-seat block to hold things up. He isn't a fan of the Charedim, nor of the deeper left. He has no problem governing with both Bibi and Gantz together, but won't go into government with either sets of their other partners.

Had bib been able to get Lieberman to commit to him in either of the last two elections, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on February 03, 2020, 02:58:15 PM
Hate is a very powerful political weapon that has gotten Liberman this far. What made you thing he would stop using it?

Because the election is going to come down to annexation. If he sides with Blue and White who partners with the Meretz/Arab parties he will lose all support. He needs to come out of this election with Netanyahu as his partner. He needs to be able to get some strong concessions from Netanyahu but his constant hate on the charedim will hurt him.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 03, 2020, 03:33:09 PM
To add to this - I think that Lieberman has a double-sided hatred going on, which is causing him and his 10-seat block to hold things up. He isn't a fan of the Charedim, nor of the deeper left. He has no problem governing with both Bibi and Gantz together, but won't go into government with either sets of their other partners.

Had bib been able to get Lieberman to commit to him in either of the last two elections, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Lieberman has no problem with the Charedim. He was a best friend of some of them up until recently. He is a shrewd opportunist that found a recipe to collect a substantial number of votes and serve as the kingmaker in Israeli politics.

Because the election is going to come down to annexation. If he sides with Blue and White who partners with the Meretz/Arab parties he will lose all support. He needs to come out of this election with Netanyahu as his partner. He needs to be able to get some strong concessions from Netanyahu but his constant hate on the charedim will hurt him.

-1

Annexation is irrelevant. And geopolitically one would need a microscope to find the differences in stated positions between Likud and B&W (though as far as capabilities, one would need to be totally blind and deaf to not see the difference between Netanyahu and all the others).

Lieberman has figured out an excellent way to wield power. The one thing he hasn't figured out yet is what to do with it. He has put himself in the supposed position of kingmaker, where in reality all he is able to do is block, he cannot join any real leadership. Agreeing to his terms of abandoning the Jewish roots of the state would be total suicide and chaos. It isn't a governable position.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yonah on February 03, 2020, 04:50:09 PM
Lieberman has no problem with the Charedim. He was a best friend of some of them up until recently. He is a shrewd opportunist that found a recipe to collect a substantial number of votes and serve as the kingmaker in Israeli politics.


Forgive me if I misspoke, but isn't one of Lieberman's big sticking points the draft law?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 03, 2020, 05:09:01 PM
Forgive me if I misspoke, but isn't one of Lieberman's big sticking points the draft law?

He couldn't care less about it (other than the fact that invoking it allows him to gain political strength).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 07, 2020, 09:11:07 AM
https://www.srugim.co.il/417871-עמית-סגל-זה-התאריך-של-הבחירות-הרביעיות
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yonah on February 07, 2020, 09:22:03 AM
https://www.srugim.co.il/417871-עמית-סגל-זה-התאריך-של-הבחירות-הרביעיות

Where's the dislike button
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 07, 2020, 01:31:47 PM
Where's the dislike button

What are you disliking? An open-eyed view of the reality of the situation? No matter which way you slice things, as long as Lieberman gets in, nothing changes - hence the updated title of this thread! Or are you disliking the fact that they aren't facing reality properly and pre-scheduling the next 5 or 6 semi-annual rounds, so people can make better travel plans?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on February 10, 2020, 03:25:34 PM
What are you disliking? An open-eyed view of the reality of the situation? No matter which way you slice things, as long as Lieberman gets in, nothing changes - hence the updated title of this thread! Or are you disliking the fact that they aren't facing reality properly and pre-scheduling the next 5 or 6 semi-annual rounds, so people can make better travel plans?
Any time someone asks me about the elections I ask them if they are referring to the ones in March or September
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yonah on February 11, 2020, 06:00:48 PM
What are you disliking? An open-eyed view of the reality of the situation? No matter which way you slice things, as long as Lieberman gets in, nothing changes - hence the updated title of this thread! Or are you disliking the fact that they aren't facing reality properly and pre-scheduling the next 5 or 6 semi-annual rounds, so people can make better travel plans?

The open-eyed view of the reality of the situation -> I am wondering who caves first - I definitely don't think it's going to be Bibi
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 16, 2020, 04:56:23 PM
Wrapping up a few days in EY, here are my unscientific impressions of the atmosphere.

I think most people are resigned to the fact that the outcome won't be much different than the previous one and the country is headed to round 4.

As such there seems to be a lot of apathy.

Gantz seems to keep on stumbling whenever he talks. Those that hate (and are jealous) of Netanyahu seem to have run out of ammo. Yes, they say that they won't form a coalition with Netanyahu, but there's only that much mileage one can get out of the indictments, especially now that they were served (hastily at a bad timing with procedural flaws). As someone put it to me: Netanyahu should pay the price, not for what is in the indictments, as those are a witch hunt with nothing material, but for allowing the forces that brought about these bogus indictments to fester. That being said it's obvious that Gantz is simply not capable, constantly stumbling in interviews, it seems like his strongest selling point is his looks.

The United Arab List supposedly started to campaign towards non-arabs, claiming that they will protect minorities. Their campaign apparently includes ads in Yiddish, Amharic and Russian (I haven't seen any, just heard about it on the radio).

Meanwhile some think tank put up ads depicting Abbas and Haniye on blindfolded and on their knees, with the headline "Peace is made with defeated enemies". The mayor of Tel-Aviv banned those signs, which gave them additional publicity. I heard a couple of interviews with a woman from the organization that put those signs up. I think she did well in the interviews. While they are appealing to the Supreme Court against the ban, she thanks the mayor of Tel-Aviv for the publicity. She welcomes anyone that finds those ads offensive to suggest a different headline that will convey their message that a different approach should be tried, rather than the one that has been tried for decades and didn't work, of appeasement and giving up things in exchange for "peace".
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 17, 2020, 06:08:22 PM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/734439

I take this with a grain of salt given the source, but if there is truth to this it is what I've been claiming all along: that Soros and his ilk are funding the fights against Netanyahu in a covert way due to legal limitations.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: shaulyaakov on February 17, 2020, 07:31:00 PM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/734439

I take this with a grain of salt given the source, but if there is truth to this it is what I've been claiming all along: that Soros and his ilk are funding the fights against Netanyahu in a covert way due to legal limitations.
And rich people funded bibi also. What's your point?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 17, 2020, 08:55:13 PM
And rich people funded bibi also. What's your point?

Foreign donors with a strong left wing agenda, that tried very hard to get rid of Netanyahu and fight against Jewish values in 2015. George Soros, Daniel Lubetzky, J Street etc. After that election a law was passed to ban foreign money.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 02, 2020, 03:29:26 AM
Can today be the day Israel will finally be able to form a govt?

I have a strong feeling the right will pull off 63 seats and Bibi will be PM for another bunch of years until the next idiot wants to pull from the govt.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 02, 2020, 07:33:16 AM
Can today be the day Israel will finally be able to form a govt?

I have a strong feeling the right will pull off 63 seats and Bibi will be PM for another bunch of years until the next idiot wants to pull from the govt.

Bibi can remain interim PM with elections every 6 months for the next few decades.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: zh cohen on March 02, 2020, 10:25:12 AM
What does the (relatively) high turnout so far mean? (Aside for making it even more certain that Otzma is not going to cross the threshold)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 02, 2020, 10:35:27 AM
What does the (relatively) high turnout so far mean? (Aside for making it even more certain that Otzma is not going to cross the threshold)
I think it is good for gimmel and arab list
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 02, 2020, 10:43:38 AM
I think it is good for gimmel and arab list
is it looking like bibi has a chance this round?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 02, 2020, 10:58:37 AM
Higher turnout means more seats for the arab party/likud and B&W bad for shas/Gimmel/YB and other smaller parties
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 02, 2020, 10:59:41 AM
I think it is good for gimmel and arab list
What math would make it good for Gimmel? They traditionally have high voter turnout, so general population high turnout would just dilute them.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 02, 2020, 12:44:07 PM
What math would make it good for Gimmel? They traditionally have high voter turnout, so general population high turnout would just dilute them.
I think they will have a higher turnout than normal. Just from my local environs, I had a line at the polling station which I've never had before. If the surge is evenly split, than obviously it won't be good for gimmel. But maybe we will see a real surge in gimmel/shas voting that they finally got their people out. Who knows
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: BP16 on March 02, 2020, 12:47:08 PM
I think they will have a higher turnout than normal. Just from my local environs, I had a line at the polling station which I've never had before. If the surge is evenly split, than obviously it won't be good for gimmel. But maybe we will see a real surge in gimmel/shas voting that they finally got their people out. Who knows
What time does the results start coming out?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 02, 2020, 12:50:26 PM
What time does the results start coming out?
After polls close (10 PM local time)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 02, 2020, 12:50:42 PM
I think they will have a higher turnout than normal. Just from my local environs, I had a line at the polling station which I've never had before. If the surge is evenly split, than obviously it won't be good for gimmel. But maybe we will see a real surge in gimmel/shas voting that they finally got their people out. Who knows

I agree - who knows.

That being said, if Gimmel and Shas (which combined hold around 15-16 seats) traditionally have 70% turnout and they increase to 80%, while major parties (holding around 66-70 seats) traditionally have around 45% and they increase to 55%, while arabs (holding around 12-13 seats) traditionally have around 20% and increase to 30% where's the impact tilted towards? Do your own math.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 02, 2020, 12:52:04 PM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/276709
This is interesting, for what it's worth
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 02, 2020, 01:04:49 PM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/276709
This is interesting, for what it's worth

Well, that's key. Never waste your time reading negatives about the left wing in a right-wing publication and vice versa.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ilherman on March 02, 2020, 01:10:52 PM
Whats the percentage of registered Gimel chareidi voters turning out to vote?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on March 02, 2020, 01:21:43 PM
I agree - who knows.

That being said, if Gimmel and Shas (which combined hold around 15-16 seats) traditionally have 70% turnout and they increase to 80%, while major parties (holding around 66-70 seats) traditionally have around 45% and they increase to 55%, while arabs (holding around 12-13 seats) traditionally have around 20% and increase to 30% where's the impact tilted towards? Do your own math.
So arabs would have a 50% increase in trunout while major parties have a 20% increase and chareidi have a 12% increase? (I know these don't match exactly to your example but are a very rough estimate) Why would we make such an assumption and what does this have to do with his statement?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 02, 2020, 02:09:44 PM
Well, that's key. Never waste your time reading negatives about the left wing in a right-wing publication and vice versa.
It seems like that is coming from other outlets as well
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 02, 2020, 02:10:55 PM
So arabs would have a 50% increase in trunout while major parties have a 20% increase and chareidi have a 12% increase? (I know these don't match exactly to your example but are a very rough estimate) Why would we make such an assumption and what does this have to do with his statement?

The reason I'm making though extremely rough assumptions is because if we're looking at an overall increase in the participation rate it needs to come from somewhere. It's much harder to grow a participation rate from 70% to 80% than it is to grow it from lower starting numbers, there are just more non-participants that can be converted to participants.

Now if the 10% increase is across the board, then in absolute numbers it favors those with a larger starting baseline. A 10% increase of 7 seats might still run short of 8 seats. But a 10% increase of 32 seats is likely to gain a few.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 02, 2020, 02:12:01 PM
It seems like that is coming from other outlets as well

If Ha'aretz is reporting that then I might give it an ounce of credence.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on March 02, 2020, 02:52:47 PM
The reason I'm making though extremely rough assumptions is because if we're looking at an overall increase in the participation rate it needs to come from somewhere. It's much harder to grow a participation rate from 70% to 80% than it is to grow it from lower starting numbers, there are just more non-participants that can be converted to participants.

Now if the 10% increase is across the board, then in absolute numbers it favors those with a larger starting baseline. A 10% increase of 7 seats might still run short of 8 seats. But a 10% increase of 32 seats is likely to gain a few.
At the same time it is easier to grow by 10,000 voters than to grow by 100,000 voters.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 02, 2020, 02:56:49 PM
And.....The verdict is?

I guess a slightly strengthening right - up to 58 or 59, but not enough to break the stalemate
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 02, 2020, 03:08:58 PM
Exit polls showing right @60!
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: gingyguy on March 02, 2020, 03:10:00 PM
And.....The verdict is?

I guess a slightly strengthening right - up to 58 or 59, but not enough to break the stalemate
exit polls are giving right bloc 60-61...
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 02, 2020, 03:11:26 PM
exit polls are giving right bloc 60-61...
is 60 any good?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: BP16 on March 02, 2020, 03:16:55 PM
is 60 any good?
No need 61
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 02, 2020, 03:19:30 PM
is 60 any good?

It's not good, but it's a clear advantage in the current constellation. Though it is still a nail biter, and the soldier's votes might change things.

If it stays at 60 expect heavy artillery in trying to break up B&W and get defectors.

The big news is the drop for Labor-Meretz-Gesher list going to around 6 out of 11 had as separate parties in the previous election and Lieberman dropping to 6 based on 2 out of 3 channel's exit polls.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ilherman on March 02, 2020, 03:33:46 PM
Would be really painful to be 1 seat short.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 02, 2020, 03:38:05 PM
It's being pointed out that the left-wing has suffered its greatest defeat in a long time. Despite all the mergers on that side the total number is down to around 38.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: chevron on March 02, 2020, 03:55:31 PM
Ibg is the real problem. If they wasted another 2 seats..
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 02, 2020, 04:28:41 PM
Ben Gvir needs to leave Israel. He should run for PA leadership. He is the biigest cause of heartache for the right. And then the chutzpah to blame Bennet and Peretz. Unbelievable
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 02, 2020, 04:32:37 PM
It's being pointed out that the left-wing has suffered its greatest defeat in a long time. Despite all the mergers on that side the total number is down to around 38.
amd thats considering yaalon/lapid leftists
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: bzam99 on March 02, 2020, 04:35:59 PM
Dd the left suffer sig. damage after the tapes leaked of the senior official bashing Ganz?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: zh cohen on March 02, 2020, 04:36:46 PM
amd thats considering yaalon/lapid leftists

But not counting the Arabs as leftists
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 02, 2020, 04:39:01 PM
But not counting the Arabs as leftists

If you count them, you need to take out most of B&W
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: jj1000 on March 02, 2020, 04:47:14 PM
https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Benjamin-Netanyahus-Right-bloc-wins-majority-exit-polls-619513
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: good sam on March 02, 2020, 04:51:21 PM
Losers:

* B&W
* Mysterious Mekubal
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 02, 2020, 05:16:46 PM
Am I missing something?   Whats the major party  so far the right does not have 61
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 02, 2020, 05:44:04 PM
Dd the left suffer sig. damage after the tapes leaked of the senior official bashing Ganz?

That's what Gantz's personal advisor is claiming. Calling it sabotage.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ilherman on March 02, 2020, 07:23:50 PM
When can we expect to see some real results? Where to watch?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: chevron on March 02, 2020, 07:52:20 PM
Ibg though does have voters who would never vote Yamina. These guys see yamina the way tea party see's RINO.

But yes absolutely we could say that he is to volume for the right oozing probably two seats. 
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Galitzyaner on March 02, 2020, 08:00:20 PM
When can we expect to see some real results? Where to watch?
They're starting to trickle in HERE (https://votes23.bechirot.gov.il/) (official results).
Though hopefully not like last time where they said that the online results had a glitch and were inaccurate...
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ilherman on March 03, 2020, 01:11:03 AM
Any chance this will last?  I need John King....

With 34 percent of votes counted, Netanyahu's Likud leads with 36 seats, while Gantz's Kahol Lavan earns 28 seats.

The Joint List is currently the third largest party with 15 seats, closely followed by United Torah Judaism with 11 and Shas with 10.  Yamina and Labor-Gesher-Meretz stand at seven each, and Yisrael Beiteinu has six.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 03, 2020, 03:45:51 AM
Any chance this will last?  I need John King....

With 34 percent of votes counted, Netanyahu's Likud leads with 36 seats, while Gantz's Kahol Lavan earns 28 seats.

The Joint List is currently the third largest party with 15 seats, closely followed by United Torah Judaism with 11 and Shas with 10.  Yamina and Labor-Gesher-Meretz stand at seven each, and Yisrael Beiteinu has six.


No :)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ilherman on March 03, 2020, 09:47:56 AM
Forth election here we come!
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 03, 2020, 11:44:15 AM
I saw a tweet somewhere about perspective.

In the first round Netanyahu's block had 59 or 60 and it was a disaster. Last night as they thought they had 60 it was a HUGE WIN.

Will this country ever properly identify and punish Lieberman for all of this?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 03, 2020, 11:49:43 AM
As I might have pointed out upthread, the major parties (and possibly UTJ and SHAS) are making a HUGE mistake by not appealing more to Arab voters. The Arab population has many domestic issues they care about, but they only had one alternative to vote for, which combined disparate ideologies and many that care more about the politics of the "Palestinian Cause" than the domestic issues of the Arab population.

The big story of the last few rounds is the increasing participation in the Arab sector. Someone needs to pay attention.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 03, 2020, 02:43:06 PM
Ben Gvir needs to leave Israel. He should run for PA leadership. He is the biigest cause of heartache for the right. And then the chutzpah to blame Bennet and Peretz. Unbelievable

Wrong, IMHO.

In the previous rounds, he was a serious problem.

In this round it was 100% clear to EVERYONE that he isn't getting in. No-one had any illusions that he has even the slimmest chance to get in. He claims to have followed a ruling by Rabbi Dov Lior. I don't know Rabbi Lior's reasoning, but I highly doubt that the less than 18,000 votes that were cast for Ben Gvir would have made any difference one way or the other if he would have announced that he's out of the race, though politically he would have gained.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 03, 2020, 03:11:39 PM
And.....The verdict is?

I guess a slightly strengthening right - up to 58 or 59, but not enough to break the stalemate
Ugh. Anyone know the date of the next elections?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 03, 2020, 03:24:40 PM
Ugh. Anyone know the date of the next elections?

Probably sometime in Elul.

The following illustrates an important point. That even though the "right wing bloc" doesn't have a majority. The "left wing" is much further behind. There's no way Lieberman and the Arabs join forces.

(https://i.imgur.com/9JPR087.png)

It's all in Lieberman's hands again. Unless he buckles and finds a way to join a Netanyahu led government which includes UTJ and Shas, there's no way out of a round 4. B&W are too arrognat and stubborn to breakup their Never Bibi bloc that has nothing else holding them together.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yammer on March 03, 2020, 03:27:06 PM
Is it certain that "if" he gets 60 he has a defection and has 61?

I also think that if Leiberman+Left+Arabs don't have 61 ( meaning that Leiberman technically won't matter to the left ) if it will give Bibi Stronger chances of defections.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 03, 2020, 03:39:07 PM
Is it certain that "if" he gets 60 he has a defection and has 61?

I also think that if Leiberman+Left+Arabs don't have 61 ( meaning that Leiberman technically won't matter to the left ) if it will give Bibi Stronger chances of defections.

The only possible defections might be Orly Levy and Lieberman. None are very likely.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 03, 2020, 04:16:24 PM

Key B&W person admitting (at 1:17) that B&W stands for nothing other than "ethical cleanliness" which is a euphemism for Never Bibi. And that one cannot use that to win a ruling position in Israel.


https://www.mako.co.il/AjaxPage?jspName=embedHTML5video.jsp&galleryChannelId=1342d241a41a0710VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD&videoChannelId=a9391fec4e8fe610VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD&vcmid=5ed55251031a0710VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD (https://www.mako.co.il/AjaxPage?jspName=embedHTML5video.jsp&galleryChannelId=1342d241a41a0710VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD&videoChannelId=a9391fec4e8fe610VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD&vcmid=5ed55251031a0710VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 04, 2020, 06:27:54 AM
The right is down to 58
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 04, 2020, 09:40:09 AM
Key B&W person admitting (at 1:17) that B&W stands for nothing other than "ethical cleanliness" which is a euphemism for Never Bibi. And that one cannot use that to win a ruling position in Israel.


https://www.mako.co.il/AjaxPage?jspName=embedHTML5video.jsp&galleryChannelId=1342d241a41a0710VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD&videoChannelId=a9391fec4e8fe610VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD&vcmid=5ed55251031a0710VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD (https://www.mako.co.il/AjaxPage?jspName=embedHTML5video.jsp&galleryChannelId=1342d241a41a0710VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD&videoChannelId=a9391fec4e8fe610VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD&vcmid=5ed55251031a0710VgnVCM200000650a10acRCRD)

considering Gantz and Yaalon (or ashkenazi) are going to be investigated now...the party is not gonna last another election.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: chevron on March 04, 2020, 10:44:15 AM
As I might have pointed out upthread, the major parties (and possibly UTJ and SHAS) are making a HUGE mistake by not appealing more to Arab voters. The Arab population has many domestic issues they care about, but they only had one alternative to vote for, which combined disparate ideologies and many that care more about the politics of the "Palestinian Cause" than the domestic issues of the Arab population.

The big story of the last few rounds is the increasing participation in the Arab sector. Someone needs to pay attention.

Agree, stuff like child benefits, public services, transportation etc etc

They definitely can take 2-3 seats from the Arabs. This alone would turn the tide
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 04, 2020, 11:37:39 AM
considering Gantz and Yaalon (or ashkenazi) are going to be investigated now...the party is not gonna last another election.

You're underestimating the money that's driving them. Since it's all clandestine (and illegal) we don't have the figures of $ per seat like we have the $$$$ per delegate for Bloomberg, but there are very deep pockets funding this, and the fact that Netanyahu can't break the stalemate for the 3rd time, and the hopes that they will manage to get him down with the aid of the courts, puts lots of wind in their sails.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 04, 2020, 11:39:03 AM
Agree, stuff like child benefits, public services, transportation etc etc

They definitely can take 2-3 seats from the Arabs. This alone would turn the tide
You're forgetting the violent crime rates.

But now isn't the time to work on it. It needed to be started the day after the 2015 election.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 04, 2020, 01:29:33 PM
https://www.inn.co.il/News/News.aspx/429255
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Baglach on March 04, 2020, 04:46:25 PM
considering Gantz and Yaalon (or ashkenazi) are going to be investigated now...the party is not gonna last another election.
הלוואי
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yammer on March 06, 2020, 02:59:50 AM


The Leiberman shtick of changing the law won't happen until a Govt is formed basically ruling that out.

B&W ( Ganz in particular ) may be cautious with going for a round 4...

So far no defections....

So what happens now?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 06, 2020, 03:56:30 AM

The Leiberman shtick of changing the law won't happen until a Govt is formed basically ruling that out.

B&W ( Ganz in particular ) may be cautious with going for a round 4...

So far no defections....

So what happens now?

Round 4 then Round 5 until the religious have enough kids that break the voting age to add 3 more seats. :)

Should be about 2-3 years of elections until that happens.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 07, 2020, 02:49:30 PM
Seems pretty clear we will have a left wing gov't with support from the Arabs from the outside. R"L.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ilherman on March 07, 2020, 10:17:24 PM
Seems pretty clear we will have a left wing gov't with support from the Arabs from the outside. R"L.
There was talk about this last time too. Why do you think this time it will actually happen?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 07, 2020, 10:54:06 PM
Seems pretty clear we will have a left wing gov't with support from the Arabs from the outside. R"L.
How long will it take to fall apart a few weeks or maybe even a few days
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yammer on March 08, 2020, 03:23:43 AM
How long will it take to fall apart a few weeks or maybe even a few days
Long enough for Bibi to get the out of the likud
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 08, 2020, 08:14:20 AM
Long enough for Bibi to get the out of the likud
This
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 08, 2020, 08:14:41 AM
There was talk about this last time too. Why do you think this time it will actually happen?
Just sounds different from the players this time. Plus the writing on the wall is that give a choice, the public will choose Bibi. I honestly believe (and I think Gantz does too) that a fourth election will be a coronation of King Bibi. That's the last thing Gantz wants
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yungermanchik on March 08, 2020, 09:24:09 AM
Losers:

* B&W
* Mysterious Mekubal
How?!
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 08, 2020, 09:28:35 AM
How?!
::)
Take a post from when it looked like the Right had 60 seats which is very different than the 58 they ended up with and ask questions on it a week later. That's very helpful
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Deal Guy on March 09, 2020, 03:47:10 AM
Any hope of bibi getting a few labor  or b&w votes?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 09, 2020, 10:06:02 AM
Any hope of bibi getting a few labor  or b&w votes?
Do you mean defections to create a coalition? Or in the upcoming elections?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 10, 2020, 02:22:01 PM
Lots of rumors going on, including Levi-Abiksis breaking up from her "partners".

Also this:
(https://gyazo.com/bfd9b3ea53e58868ae8be8591836cce1.jpg)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 10, 2020, 06:10:58 PM
I guess the Levy-Abiksis rumor was true.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-blow-to-gantz-geshers-levy-abekasis-appears-to-doom-minority-coalition-bid/
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 10, 2020, 06:51:21 PM
Seems pretty clear we will have a left wing gov't with support from the Arabs from the outside. R"L.
פורים ה׳תש״פ
ונהפוך הוא. אשר ישלטו היהודים המה בשונאיהם.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 11, 2020, 09:02:44 AM
פורים ה׳תש״פ
ונהפוך הוא. אשר ישלטו היהודים המה בשונאיהם.
Chasdei Hashem. It's amazing that she is the only one with her head on straight
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 11, 2020, 09:05:22 AM
Chasdei Hashem. It's amazing that she is the only one with her head on straight

Don't over do it. She might have done the right thing now. And as you correctly pointed out, it is Chasdei Hashem, but saying that she has her head straight might just be a stretch.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 11, 2020, 09:29:25 AM
Waiting for Bibi to somehow call a state of emergency due to the virus and be able to stay PM
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 11, 2020, 10:00:27 AM
Waiting for Bibi to somehow call a state of emergency due to the virus and be able to stay PM
Bibi will stay PM either way. With no left-wing coalition, we are headed to 4th elections. Bibi will remain interim PM ad infinitum
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 11, 2020, 10:23:18 AM
Technically, Hauser and Hendel didn't officially announce their opposition to a minority government and they might still be able to pass personal anti-Bibi legislation if they get the mandate.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 11, 2020, 08:56:35 PM
Waiting for Bibi to somehow call a state of emergency due to the virus and be able to stay PM
He needs 80 votes to postpone the election. But in he'll likely get them soon.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 12, 2020, 03:49:59 PM
Netanyahu calls for emergency unity government.

B&W just concluded their internal consultations. Gantz said he's willing to join unity government on the only condition that no-one is excluded (i.e. Arabs shouldn't be left out).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: mme on March 12, 2020, 08:50:25 PM
Gantz said he's willing to join unity government on the only condition that no-one is excluded (i.e. Arabs shouldn't be left out).
he want's bibi should take  them in so after the emergency gov expires  he should be able to form a gov with there support!
but he is asking bibi to form a gov with them part of it when his challenge was to form only with there support from the outside he is trying to make the argument that its the same thing!
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 12, 2020, 09:13:20 PM
he want's bibi should take  them in so after the emergency gov expires  he should be able to form a gov with there support!
but he is asking bibi to form a gov with them part of it when his challenge was to form only with there support from the outside he is trying to make the argument that its the same thing!

Don't credit Gantz with any of this strategy. It most likely originated from Offer Shelach and others party strategists. Gantz is no match to Netanyahu at a one-on-one match. I must say that it's an interesting game being played from all sides (including Lieberman, who seems to be the only one to be able to come close to Netanyahu with strategic game moves, but might be close to trapping himself).

Bibi's potential response is: Are you saying that in this time of national emergency you are willing to undermine the possibility of a properly functioning government, and lead the country to round 4, over your insistence to include murder sympathizers in the unity government?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 13, 2020, 12:22:52 AM
Don't credit Gantz with any of this strategy. It most likely originated from Offer Shelach and others party strategists. Gantz is no match to Netanyahu at a one-on-one match. I must say that it's an interesting game being played from all sides (including Lieberman, who seems to be the only one to be able to come close to Netanyahu with strategic game moves, but might be close to trapping himself).

Bibi's potential response is: Are you saying that in this time of national emergency you are willing to undermine the possibility of a properly functioning government, and lead the country to round 4, over your insistence to include murder sympathizers in the unity government?
He's started with that.

He has a simple checkmate and that is to announce he accepts the Arabs with a single condition that they unanimously publicly denounce terrorism 100%.

People are forgetting Bibbi doesn't need Gantz now. He remains PM regardless. The big news is that Gantz blinked. Now even if he doesn't sit with Bibbi, somebody else will. Bibbi won.

Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 13, 2020, 08:39:08 AM
From Amit Segal:

Quote
ובהרחבה:


זה היה לילה ארוך של מו״מ עקר: נתניהו וגנץ שוחחו פעמיים בטלפון, השיחה השנייה לאחר חצות.

בשיחה הראשונה נתניהו דרש פגישה של שניהם וגנץ - פגישה של צוותי המו״מ. נתניהו רצה להכניס את כחול לבן אל הקורלס הציבורי של הישיבה תחתיו וגנץ - לצלול לפרטי הישיבה המשותפת שלא יהיו נוחים לליכןד.

שניהם הלכו לבדוק אם יכולים לבוא לקראת השני - וחזרו עם תשובה שלילית. היה די ברור לצדדים שהדרישה להכניס את הרשימה המשותפת היא לצורכי תחזוק הבלוק ולא ריאלית. המשותפת עצמה הרי לא רוצה להיות בממשלה.

ראשי כחול לבן והליכוד לא נדרשו להנחיות משרד הבריאות כדי לשמור מרחק. משא החשדנות והמשטמה בין הצדדים בשיאו, למרות הקורונה ושוועת הציבור לפתור כבר את המשבר הפוליטי הכרוני רגע לפני שהמגפה מתנפצת בעוצמה אדירה אל חופי ישראל.

ההערכות מדברות על עוצר כמעט כללי החל בעוד שבועיים, ועד אז יצטרכו להגיע לסיכומים. אבל כאלה אין, בינתיים. נתניהו רוצה ממשלת חירום בסגנון 1967 שבה כחול לבן נוטלת חלק סמלי, גנץ מוכן לממשלת רוטציה שוויונית בסגנון 1984. אולי בצר להם יסכימו על צו חירום כמו ב-1948, שיקפיא את המצב לשלושה חודשים, עד שהמגיפה תחלוף אולי ואז יחזרו להתקוטט בדיוק בנקודה בה הפסיקו.

עד שיהיו הסכמות, כחול לבן מתכוונת לקבל את הרכבת הממשלה בראשון, להחליף את יו״ר הכנסת בשני ולהתחיל בחקיקת חוק נתניהו בשלישי, במידה שהדבר בכלל אפשרי. יש לצדדים עוד 48 שעות להגיע בכל זאת להסכמה על מתווה.  גם אל מול הקטסטרופה הגדולה, נמשכת הפוליטיקה של יום קטנות.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 14, 2020, 08:20:27 PM
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 15, 2020, 07:54:33 AM
Joint list has recommended Gantz including Balad. What a shameful day for Israel. This will be a complete nightmare if he is leading the country through this Corona.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 15, 2020, 08:26:26 AM
Joint list has recommended Gantz including Balad. What a shameful day for Israel. This will be a complete nightmare if he is leading the country through this Corona.
Doesn't look good to our eyes, but trust the one that truly runs the world.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 15, 2020, 09:53:45 AM
Doesn't look good to our eyes, but trust the one that truly runs the world.

Now that the entire United Arab List recommended Gantz, noting that they are doing it for the sake of their unity and out of hatred to Netanyahu, it is now up to Lieberman whether he will endorse Gantz and be the one to have enabled a government through the power of the United Arab List.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 15, 2020, 11:46:56 AM
Now that the entire United Arab List recommended Gantz, noting that they are doing it for the sake of their unity and out of hatred to Netanyahu, it is now up to Lieberman whether he will endorse Gantz and be the one to have enabled a government through the power of the United Arab List.

He endorsed Gantz. Our last hope is that the negotiations fail and we see either a unity govt or new elections with Bibi plastering the country with pictures of Gantz and Tibi
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on March 15, 2020, 11:51:36 AM
He endorsed Gantz. Our last hope is that the negotiations fail and we see either a unity govt or new elections with Bibi plastering the country with pictures of Gantz and Tibi
He should do it already now. Maybe include Leiberman in the picture too.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on March 15, 2020, 03:17:49 PM
He should do it already now. Maybe include Leiberman in the picture too.
Agree bibi should also come up with some type of nickname for them that sticks, Trump style
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 15, 2020, 03:20:50 PM
He endorsed Gantz. Our last hope is that the negotiations fail and we see either a unity govt or new elections with Bibi plastering the country with pictures of Gantz and Tibi
-1

We're at a different stage of the political game now. He can't attack. He needs to cause them to implode (if he can). He might have to swallow a lot on the way. My guess is that at the end of the day Gantz doesn't want the Zionist idea to implode, so positions will change.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2020, 04:05:31 PM
https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001322606
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2020, 06:19:01 PM
https://www.instagram.com/tv/B97a6DInwuH/?igshid=6lk9o5k3004e
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 26, 2020, 09:48:12 AM
MAJOR development: Gantz putting himself up for election as speaker of the Knesset (against Lapid faction - which plans to boycott the vote, Lieberman, and United Arab List). This could signal the final demise of B&W.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 26, 2020, 10:43:45 AM
B&W is finished.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yungermanchik on March 26, 2020, 10:52:52 AM
Kol Haolam
Quote
ISRAEL: UNITY DEAL: Netanyahu to remain PM, Gantz FM and will be PM in 18 months. Blue & White gets Defense and Justice ministries. (Channel 12)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 26, 2020, 11:10:08 AM
Thats what the right block gets for backing bibi
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 26, 2020, 11:10:51 AM
B&W is finished.

Indeed. Good riddance. Lapid and Yaalon announced that they are splitting from the current B&W list, but request to maintain the B&W name due to the fact that their factions constitute the majority of MKs out of the B&W list.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 26, 2020, 11:22:13 AM
Indeed. Good riddance. Lapid and Yaalon announced that they are splitting from the current B&W list, but request to maintain the B&W name due to the fact that their factions constitute the majority of MKs out of the B&W list.
So the right wing bloc gained by signing on king bibi
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 26, 2020, 11:23:25 AM
any hope for a charedi agenda?

What is a Charedi agenda?

BH that the anti Jewish agenda failed!
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 26, 2020, 11:24:56 AM
Indeed. Good riddance. Lapid and Yaalon announced that they are splitting from the current B&W list, but request to maintain the B&W name due to the fact that their factions constitute the majority of MKs out of the B&W list.

As a result of this Lapid becomes head of opposition (had he stuck with Gantz it would have been an MK from the United Arab List).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 26, 2020, 11:26:12 AM
What is a Charedi agenda?

BH that the anti Jewish agenda failed!
your right!!!!!!
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: zh cohen on March 26, 2020, 11:40:32 AM
Thats what the right block gets for backing bibi

Are you sayig that as a bad thing? This is good for the right
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 26, 2020, 11:46:20 AM
Are you sayig that as a bad thing? This is good for the right
it was a smart bet
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: mme on March 26, 2020, 03:14:19 PM
As a result of this Lapid becomes head of opposition (had he stuck with Gantz it would have been an MK from the United Arab List).
actually it is going to be the an MK of the united arab list as they have 15 MKs. and blue and white headed by lapid only has 14 MKs they had 33 minus 15 of gantz and 3 of gabi ashknazi
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 26, 2020, 09:18:05 PM
actually it is going to be the an MK of the united arab list as they have 15 MKs. and blue and white headed by lapid only has 14 MKs they had 33 minus 15 of gantz and 3 of gabi ashknazi

I don't know where you get your info from.

https://www.srugim.co.il/434160-מי-הולך-עם-גנץ-ומי-נשאר-עם-לפיד-ויעלון-כ

Based on that Lapid/Yaalon have 18 (or 16 if Hauser and Hendel split).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: mme on March 26, 2020, 10:43:36 PM

https://www.srugim.co.il/434160-מי-הולך-עם-גנץ-ומי-נשאר-עם-לפיד-ויעלון-כ

Based on that Lapid/Yaalon have 18 (or 16 if Hauser and Hendel split).
your right my bad did read somewere like i said but........
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 12, 2020, 01:02:57 PM
While we're all busy with COVID-19 and Pesach, Israeli politics keep on coming with surprises.

Gantz's mandate to present a government expires in less than 36 hours. He asked Rivlin for a 14 day extensions, and Rivlin refused. Rivlin also refused to give Netanyahu a shot at it, before the mandate goes to the Knesset to come up with a candidate to form a government. Rivlin did hint that if he sees significant progress in the next 24 hours he might reconsider.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 12, 2020, 02:24:11 PM
Rivlin also refused to give Netanyahu a shot at it, before the mandate goes to the Knesset to come up with a candidate to form a government
Source?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 12, 2020, 02:26:56 PM
Source?
https://t.me/amitsegal/6405

And more.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 12, 2020, 02:28:02 PM
It doesn't say that.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 12, 2020, 02:29:24 PM
It doesn't say that.

Quote
והיה ולא יחתמו השניים על הסכם עד מחר בחצות, ולא תשתנה תמונת הממליצים, ישוב המנדט לכנסת ותחל תקופת 21 הימים בהם יוכלו חברי הכנסת לגבש רוב להמלצה על מועמד מוסכם. למועמד המוסכם ינתנו 14 יום להרכיב ממשלה.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 12, 2020, 02:31:27 PM
https://www.timesofisrael.com/right-wing-bloc-urges-rivlin-to-tap-netanyahu-after-gantz-mandate-runs-out/
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 12, 2020, 02:40:18 PM

Rivlin didn't say that. It's Segal's speculation.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 12, 2020, 03:59:10 PM
Rivlin didn't say that. It's Segal's speculation.

זיי נישט קיין עקשן.

Here's the quote from the Times of Israel:

Quote
Rivlin said that if the two leaders don’t sign an agreement by midnight Monday, he would ask Knesset members to recommend one of their peers to receive the mandate to form a government. The first MK to receive more than 61 recommendations would then be tasked by Rivlin.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yammer on April 12, 2020, 04:04:43 PM
While we're all busy with COVID-19 and Pesach, Israeli politics keep on coming with surprises.

Gantz's mandate to present a government expires in less than 36 hours. He asked Rivlin for a 14 day extensions, and Rivlin refused. Rivlin also refused to give Netanyahu a shot at it, before the mandate goes to the Knesset to come up with a candidate to form a government. Rivlin did hint that if he sees significant progress in the next 24 hours he might reconsider.
I'm wondering if Bibi played Ganz here of that he was sincere in the beginning but has since then realized that the current situation has given him a whole new arm in leveraging the situation.

I personally believe it's the latter
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 12, 2020, 04:41:10 PM
I'm wondering if Bibi played Ganz here of that he was sincere in the beginning but has since then realized that the current situation has given him a whole new arm in leveraging the situation.

I personally believe it's the latter

Definitely the latter. The way things turned out Netanyahu's hand was made stronger (possibly by an order of magnitude).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 13, 2020, 05:48:07 PM
Gantz and Netanyahu (jointly?) asked Rivlin for a 48 hour extension (until Motzoei YT in EY) saying they are close to an agreement.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yehudaa on April 13, 2020, 05:49:46 PM
Gantz and Netanyahu (jointly?) asked Rivlin for a 48 hour extension (until Motzoei YT in EY) saying they are close to an agreement.

And Rivlin granted it, per TOI.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 17, 2020, 05:30:12 PM
And Rivlin granted it, per TOI.

After not reaching an agreement within 48 hours (which included Yomtov, so practically less than a 24 hour extension), Rivlin refused to extend Gantz's mandate or transfer the mandate to Netanyahu, opting to transfer it to the Knesset to come up with an agreed candidate within 21 days.

In the meantime Likud and B&W are working hard to iron out the legal and technical issues of their agreement, building in various protections.

Hebrew article describing (some of) those details being ironed out:
https://m.news1.co.il/Archive/001-D-425721-00.html
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 20, 2020, 12:20:27 PM
Agreement just reached/signed. Netanyahu prevailed on one of the main stumbling blocks, giving him veto power over appointments (including supreme court appointments).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on April 20, 2020, 12:28:03 PM
Any details on who gets what?
Are Yeshivas getting funded or not?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: jj1000 on April 20, 2020, 12:38:33 PM
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/politics-news-pmn/israels-netanyahu-rival-gantz-sign-unity-government-deal-joint-statement
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 20, 2020, 02:02:37 PM
Any details on who gets what?
Are Yeshivas getting funded or not?

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/Hk2C2rsOL
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 20, 2020, 02:04:43 PM
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/politics-news-pmn/israels-netanyahu-rival-gantz-sign-unity-government-deal-joint-statement

Where did you find that site?

How about a more detailed piece from a major news source:

Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 20, 2020, 05:48:28 PM
Full agreement attached.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on April 20, 2020, 05:52:58 PM
Full agreement attached.
english translation?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 20, 2020, 08:59:41 PM
english translation?

Who's chipping in to pay my hourly rate for translations?  ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: israshot on April 23, 2020, 01:35:57 PM
Chabad is and was always opposed to Zionism, but doesn't let that get in the way of loving and caring for every Jew, even if they are Zionists.
Is it time to open a thread about it?  ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 23, 2020, 03:52:19 PM
Is it time to open a thread about it?  ;)

Not necessary. It's about time that everyone (outside of Chabad-Lubavitch, and within) realize that Chabad/Lubavitch has only one spokesperson - The Rebbe!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Iz on April 23, 2020, 03:53:37 PM
Not necessary. It's about time that everyone (outside of Chabad-Lubavitch, and within) realize that Chabad/Lubavitch has only one spokesperson - The Rebbe!
Aren't there 7?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 23, 2020, 03:57:05 PM
Aren't there 7?

If you never heard it, you should hear how R' Zushe Posner (of another DDF thread's fame  ;) ) repeats the story of his father, R' Sholom Posner a"h describing the scene of how the Rebbe Rashab would say a Ma'amar in Lubavitch.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Iz on April 23, 2020, 03:58:10 PM
If you never heard it, you should hear how R' Zushe Posner (of another DDF thread's fame  ;) ) repeats the story of his father, R' Sholom Posner a"h describing the scene of how the Rebbe Rashab would say a Ma'amar in Lubavitch.
Link?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ellemeno on April 23, 2020, 07:18:47 PM
Not necessary. It's about time that everyone (outside of Chabad-Lubavitch, and within) realize that Chabad/Lubavitch has only one spokesperson - The Rebbe!
On that note, in the hundred years since the zionist idea was born there was more then one Rebbe, and none of them were pro that idea.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: israshot on April 23, 2020, 07:20:20 PM
On that note, in the hundred years since the zionist idea was born there was more then one Rebbe, and none of them were pro that idea.
Off topic. How did your first post land here?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yehudaa on April 23, 2020, 07:53:27 PM
Off topic. How did your first post land here?
Now how's that for a warm welcome...
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: israshot on April 23, 2020, 07:55:05 PM
Now how's that for a warm welcome...
He has been here, behind the curtain.
I would've welcomed him in 2017 but I wasn't here to do so.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on April 24, 2020, 01:47:29 AM
Gantz sued for copyright infringement over the use of the name and logo of B&W.

Hebrew article.
https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001326320
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 24, 2020, 01:51:34 AM
Link?

I don't know if there's a recording of the story online. But you can ask anyone of the thousands of his תלמידים or seminary girls that might have heard it from him. It might even be in one or more interviews he has given over the years.

ETA: https://youtu.be/w2eJA3iFmVg that story starts at 1:05:08 (in Hebrew). Though in this rendition he doesn't spell out the one Rebbe theme (which might be mentioned somewhere else in this video).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Iz on April 24, 2020, 09:16:05 AM
I don't know if there's a recording of the story online. But you can ask anyone of the thousands of his תלמידים or seminary girls that might have heard it from him. It might even be in one or more interviews he has given over the years.

ETA: https://youtu.be/w2eJA3iFmVg (https://youtu.be/w2eJA3iFmVg) that story starts at 1:05:08 (in Hebrew). Though in this rendition he doesn't spell out the one Rebbe theme (which might be mentioned somewhere else in this video).
Thanks.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yehudaa on May 06, 2020, 04:40:42 PM
Supreme Court rules: Netanyahu can form next government

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/279807
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on May 06, 2020, 04:58:52 PM
So were settled for now?
I predict  Netanyahu will call for elections in 17 months
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yakov116 on May 06, 2020, 05:23:42 PM
So were settled for now?
I predict  Netanyahu will call for elections in 17 months
Would be a stupid move. He would loose all trust.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on May 06, 2020, 11:55:24 PM
Interesting trivia bit: if everything goes as planned (I.e. the agreement between Likud and B&W is amended so as to have a 4 year total term rather than 3 years, and the government and Knesset serve the full term) Nov. 5, 2024 will be election day in both the US and Israel. (HT: Amit Segal via Telegram)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on May 07, 2020, 11:43:43 AM
So were settled for now?
I predict  Netanyahu will call for elections in 17 months
Apparently part of the agreement is that in the event new elections are called, Gantz becomes temporary prime minister. A genius move on his part
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on May 07, 2020, 12:08:48 PM
Would be a stupid move. He would loose all trust.
Apparently part of the agreement is that in the event new elections are called, Gantz becomes temporary prime minister. A genius move on his part
I would more likely expect him to back things into others making there be new elections.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Dawie on May 07, 2020, 12:39:55 PM
So were settled for now?
I predict  Netanyahu will call for elections in 17 months
nah, he's got a deal to take over Rivlin as President and automatic immunity from that
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 07, 2020, 01:40:08 PM
Apparently part of the agreement is that in the event new elections are called, Gantz becomes temporary prime minister. A genius move on his part
Depends on what causes elections to be called. Not supreme Court intervention.

As Pompeo & Friedman seem quite serious about annexation, I'm convinced Bibbi wants a wide coalition for unanmious support & will likely then push towards elections. Also possible he's hoping as annexation becomes more realistic Hauser & Hendel will support him without Gantz.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on May 07, 2020, 02:35:27 PM
nah, he's got a deal to take over Rivlin as President and automatic immunity from that
If he’s already looking to be president, does that mean this is his last term as PM?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on May 12, 2020, 07:49:04 AM
Not sure if this might end up being an unintended (positive) consequence, or whether it might have been planned. If Yamina (Bennet & Co.) don't end up getting something and joining the coalition government, they might end up getting two seats to represent the opposition on the judicial nominations committee. The left wing and the supreme court will end up with major egg on their face. (HT: Amit Segal).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on May 12, 2020, 08:11:11 AM
Not sure if this might end up being an unintended (positive) consequence, or whether it might have been planned. If Yamina (Bennet & Co.) don't end up getting something and joining the coalition government, they might end up getting two seats to represent the opposition on the judicial nominations committee. The left wing and the supreme court will end up with major egg on their face. (HT: Amit Segal).
How does that work? Who gives out the seats in the opposition?
Yamina is for sure outnumbered and why would the left let them get seats in the committee?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 12, 2020, 09:01:46 AM
How does that work? Who gives out the seats in the opposition?
Yamina is for sure outnumbered and why would the left let them get seats in the committee?
Opposition doesn't get a nomination, it's just customary that the coalition (or any major parliament vote) nominates somebody from the opposition, and the supreme court implied that they may enforce this custom.

The issue with the judges is that the vote is masked, so there is little discipline even inside the coalition. 
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Yehudaa on May 13, 2020, 05:26:39 PM
Swearing-in ceremony taking place tomorrow (Thurs).

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-officially-announces-hes-formed-new-government/
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on May 13, 2020, 07:44:42 PM
Signed Agreement between Likud and UTJ.


(https://gyazo.com/b013e8691d6bab42a7d2fb43d674eb25.jpg)

(https://gyazo.com/2684eb7c1ac136db4d3e94c5296015a2.jpg)

(https://gyazo.com/2411a02e88761721c6d0e4482bc3562f.jpg)

(https://gyazo.com/b3ad200ac24addf8cfa272ea31efdf80.jpg)

(https://gyazo.com/b5e80c165176be38282b14fa30a09485.jpg)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on May 14, 2020, 12:15:11 PM
Wow. It ain't over 'till it's over.

Swearing in postponed to Sunday. Gantz withdraws his resignation from speakership until then.

Rafi Peretz broke off from Yamina in orders to get a position as minister in charge of Jerusalem, but now that is being promised to Amsalem.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: mme on May 14, 2020, 12:20:24 PM
Wow. It ain't over 'till it's over.

Swearing in postponed to Sunday. Gantz withdraws his resignation from speakership until then.

Rafi Peretz broke off from Yamina in orders to get a position as minister in charge of Jerusalem, but now that is being promised to Amsalem.
Wow wow! only in Israel!
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on May 14, 2020, 12:22:58 PM
Wow wow! only in Israel!

Nah.

You're forgetting some other parliamentary systems. Italy is the first to come to mind, but the UK definitely gave us a nice show over the last couple of years. There are probably others around the world (Belgium had a long bout with no government).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on July 22, 2020, 01:41:13 PM
Looks like it not over!
They’re saying they might go to elections again in November
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on July 22, 2020, 01:44:02 PM
Looks like it not over!
They’re saying they might go to elections again in November

So much noise going on (Amit Segal's Telegram channel is probably the most reliable source of info, and you could choose to like his analysis or not, but the info is accurate) that I didn't even bother posting about it this morning. It's a kindergarten on steroids.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on July 22, 2020, 01:47:12 PM
Worth noting the latest crisis is B&W support of a law barring mental health practitioners from gay conversion therapy, which the coalition objects on request of the frum parties
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on October 23, 2020, 08:46:00 AM
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/why-is-the-once-rising-joint-list-falling-fast-in-polls-646619
In what world is Lapid center-right?
Delusional to think that a gov't with Bennet+Lapid+Gantz+Liberman could be formed
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on October 23, 2020, 08:54:28 AM
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/why-is-the-once-rising-joint-list-falling-fast-in-polls-646619
In what world is Lapid center-right?
Delusional to think that a gov't with Bennet+Lapid+Gantz+Liberman could be formed

Who isn't delusional in that country? (Speaking of MSM and politicians)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on November 30, 2020, 03:54:25 PM
Need a thread title update  >:( >:( >:(
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on December 01, 2020, 02:52:54 PM
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 01, 2020, 03:41:44 PM
Need a thread title update  >:( >:( >:(

We should have a vote on an appropriate title, here are some suggestions:
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 01, 2020, 03:44:17 PM
Amit Segal had an interesting line about Gantz's prospects for the upcoming elections:
Quote
ההיסטוריה מלמדת שהבוחרים מוכנים לסלוח לתחמנים. לפראיירים לא.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on December 01, 2020, 04:02:28 PM
Amit Segal had an interesting line about Gantz's prospects for the upcoming elections:
So true. Does he really think he stands a chance to gain seats?
We should have a vote on an appropriate title, here are some suggestions:
  • Periodic Israeli elections starting April 2019.
  • Bibi's periodic re-election.
  • A kindergarten called Israeli politics runs periodic elections.
I vote for option c
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 01, 2020, 05:06:25 PM
So true. Does he really think he stands a chance to gain seats?
The idea is that he'll lose less by having elections now than having elections later in 2021 after Bibbi brings a vaccine ahead of most of the rest of the world
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on December 01, 2020, 06:00:26 PM
The idea is that he'll lose less by having elections now than having elections later in 2021 after Bibbi brings a vaccine ahead of most of the rest of the world
by the time they go to vote they will already have the vaccine   
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 01, 2020, 06:01:51 PM
by the time they go to vote they will already have the vaccine
Not enough of it to triumph over Covid until at least May-June.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 01, 2020, 07:11:09 PM
So true. Does he really think he stands a chance to gain seats?I vote for option c

Here's the manual for the kindergarten play:

https://www.israelhayom.co.il/interactive/amp/article/825633
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on December 09, 2020, 03:03:49 AM
Now with Sa'ar starting his own party, we are almost guaranteed another deadlock
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 10, 2020, 09:58:47 PM
Now with Sa'ar starting his own party, we are almost guaranteed another deadlock
More parties = higher odds someone will cave and agree to sit with Bibbi. The real fear is that there very well may be 61 anti Bibbi seats without the Arabs and the only thing standing in their way from uniting to dethrone Bibbi will be ego and political ineptitude.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on December 11, 2020, 08:11:48 AM
More parties = higher odds someone will cave and agree to sit with Bibbi. The real fear is that there very well may be 61 anti Bibbi seats without the Arabs and the only thing standing in their way from uniting to dethrone Bibbi will be ego and political ineptitude.
I don't think that will happen. Arabs have a low-end of 12. Chareidim 16. Likud 25. That's already 53 seats. I really don't see the remaining seats being capable of creating a coalition.
Only way it happens is if Lieberman hates Bibi more than he hates the Charedim and sells his soul to Gafne
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 11, 2020, 12:55:40 PM
I don't think that will happen. Arabs have a low-end of 12. Chareidim 16. Likud 25. That's already 53 seats. I really don't see the remaining seats being capable of creating a coalition.
Only way it happens is if Lieberman hates Bibi more than he hates the Charedim and sells his soul to Gafne
Lieberman very well may do that, but even without that if Meretz doesn't pass, you have 67 anti Bibbi Centerist/Right parties, who have no substantial obstacle to unifying to dethrone him.

I can also see Meretz joining in just for dethroning Bibbi.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on December 11, 2020, 01:29:19 PM
Lieberman very well may do that, but even without that if Meretz doesn't pass, you have 67 anti Bibbi Centerist/Right parties, who have no substantial obstacle to unifying to dethrone him.

I can also see Meretz joining in just for dethroning Bibbi.
How do you get 67?
Which parties are you including?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 11, 2020, 01:41:18 PM
How do you get 67?
Which parties are you including?
B&W Yamina Sa’ar Liberman Yesh Atid

I don’t think they will have the seats, and I don’t think they can pull it off even if they do, but this is the doomsday scenario
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: drosenberg88429 on December 12, 2020, 06:45:01 PM
B&W Yamina Sa’ar Liberman Yesh Atid

I don’t think they will have the seats, and I don’t think they can pull it off even if they do, but this is the doomsday scenario

This is 57-59. What am I missing?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 12, 2020, 07:10:27 PM
This is 57-59. What am I missing?
The polls that give them more.
In any case, I was addressing the claim that Likud + Charedim + Arabs have a floor of 53. That can still leave 67 for the above center/right parties if Meretz doesn’t get in.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on December 21, 2020, 11:39:23 PM
I thought I remember hearing that if elections are called, then Gantz takes over as PM.
 Is that true?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 21, 2020, 11:42:22 PM
I thought I remember hearing that if elections are called, then Gantz takes over as PM.
 Is that true?

Only if the other side objected to the proposed budget (or caused some other failure). It was engineered in a way that Bibi stays until the election.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on December 22, 2020, 03:14:15 AM
Only if the other side objected to the proposed budget (or caused some other failure). It was engineered in a way that Bibi stays until the election.
In other words, Gantz got played. Would we expect anything else?
Gantz won't even make it into the next knesset
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on December 22, 2020, 02:24:55 PM
First predictions:
Likud 26
Sa'ar 17
Lapid 16
Bennet 15
Arabs 14
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Lieberman 7
Meretz 4
Huldai 5

Next elections in June
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 22, 2020, 03:31:18 PM
The million dollar question is if Sa'ar will be as stubborn as Liberman about sitting with Bibbi or as flexible as Gantz
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on December 22, 2020, 03:43:17 PM
The million dollar question is if Sa'ar will be as stubborn as Liberman about sitting with Bibbi or as flexible as Gantz
The answer is simple - how long has Liberman lasted in politics and how long will Gantz last. He'd be an idiot to follow Gantz's lead
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yelped on December 22, 2020, 03:45:53 PM
The million dollar question is if Sa'ar will be as stubborn as Liberman about sitting with Bibbi or as flexible as Gantz
I'm not following. Did Saar say he wouldn't sit with Bibi? If he does then the right wing+frum parties has a comfortable coalition without Lieberman.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 22, 2020, 08:59:49 PM
The answer is simple - how long has Liberman lasted in politics and how long will Gantz last. He'd be an idiot to follow Gantz's lead

Gantz was never a politician. He didn't belong in this game. I don't think Sa'ar is stupid, but I fail to see his end-game. Does he really think he will lead a right or even "center-right" coalition against the Likud?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 22, 2020, 09:43:39 PM
The answer is simple - how long has Liberman lasted in politics and how long will Gantz last. He'd be an idiot to follow Gantz's lead
Liberman is lasting only because he has a 5-seat die hard base of FSU immigrants who won't leave him. He has only fallen since his anti-Bibbi vendetta.

I'm not following. Did Saar say he wouldn't sit with Bibi?
Yes. The million dollar question is if he'll stick with it.

I don't think Sa'ar is stupid, but I fail to see his end-game. Does he really think he will lead a right or even "center-right" coalition against the Likud?
The polls show that's within reach, but if that doesn't work, he can squeeze some annexation or etc to justify sitting with Bibbi, and get a very senior position, compared to his lowly MK status now.

Aside from his personal position, if Sa'ar does sit with Bibbi, the right+charedim now have a whopping 70-80 seats, and can easily pass a justice system overhaul and any other agenda they want.

It was a brilliant move on Sa'ars part, he went from being an end of the line MK to the second most important politician in Israel. His only risk is that somehow he'll drop all the way from his 20-seat perch in the polls to not passing the entrance threshold and staying outside of the Kennset , but that would be an extreme outcome.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 22, 2020, 11:58:13 PM
His only risk is that somehow he'll drop all the way from his 20-seat perch in the polls to not passing the entrance threshold and staying outside of the Kennset , but that would be an extreme outcome.
Such things have happened in the past.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 23, 2020, 12:25:08 AM
Such things have happened in the past.
Can you give an example of a party that polled at ~20 3 months prior to election and ended up not making it into the Kennset? The closest I remember are Feiglin/Bennet etc that polled under 10.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 23, 2020, 10:47:14 AM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/interactive/amp/article/832549

And

https://www.haaretz.co.il/amp/opinions/.premium-1.9392300
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 23, 2020, 02:21:57 PM
Elkin jumped ship to Sa'ar.

Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on December 23, 2020, 02:28:17 PM
Elkin jumped ship to Sa'ar.


I wonder how much of an effect these defections have. Or are some people pro-Bibi and some Never-Bibi and it doesn't matter
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 23, 2020, 02:33:14 PM
I wonder how much of an effect these defections have. Or are some people pro-Bibi and some Never-Bibi and it doesn't matter

All the defections are of those that are disappointed for not landing at a higher position than they would like. Nothing ideological. (Except the ideology of self advancement).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on December 23, 2020, 02:42:15 PM
All the defections are of those that are disappointed for not landing at a higher position than they would like. Nothing ideological. (Except the ideology of self advancement).
Of course, still doesn't answer my question
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 23, 2020, 03:33:09 PM
I wonder how much of an effect these defections have. Or are some people pro-Bibi and some Never-Bibi and it doesn't matter
Substantial politicians will keep Sa’ars party from dissipating. There is also no die-hard never Bibbi in the party yet - they all sat with Bibbi until last week
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on December 23, 2020, 03:36:21 PM
Substantial politicians will keep Sa’ars party from dissipating. There is also no die-hard never Bibbi in the party yet - they all sat with Bibbi until last week
Maybe this whole thing is pre-planned and they are just trying to make it appear like it's an anti-Bibi party and in the end they will build a gov't under Netanyahu - Likud+Sa'ar+Bennet. Most right-wing gov't in Israel's history
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 23, 2020, 03:41:59 PM
Maybe this whole thing is pre-planned and they are just trying to make it appear like it's an anti-Bibi party and in the end they will build a gov't under Netanyahu - Likud+Sa'ar+Bennet. Most right-wing gov't in Israel's history
So far if Sa'ar ends up sitting with Bibbi it's a huge win for everybody involved.

I don't think Sa'ar is coordinated with Bibbi, but some of his backers may be. Elkin may be coordinated with Bibbi, they are (were?) very close.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 28, 2020, 12:35:59 PM
Splintering and new parties being created continues.

Tel-Aviv Mayor Ron Chuldai is starting his own party (after Offer Shelach already splintered off from Yesh Atid). This time around it seems like the splintering isn't limited to one side of the political spectrum, but is across the board, despite the fact that the minimum threshold wasn't lowered.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on December 28, 2020, 02:38:31 PM
Splintering and new parties being created continues.

Tel-Aviv Mayor Ron Chuldai is starting his own party (after Offer Shelach already splintered off from Yesh Atid). This time around it seems like the splintering isn't limited to one side of the political spectrum, but is across the board, despite the fact that the minimum threshold wasn't lowered.
I think it makes it harder to predict the outcome and who will sit with who
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on December 28, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
I think it makes it harder to predict the outcome and who will sit with who
Amazing how many different ways of saying NO BIBI or ONLY BIBI. After all, that's what it's all about.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 28, 2020, 08:32:12 PM
This time around it seems like the splintering isn't limited to one side of the political spectrum, but is across the board, despite the fact that the minimum threshold wasn't lowered.
Splintering this time is only on the left. (Sa'ar is a signifcant breakoff not splinter)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on December 29, 2020, 04:56:48 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/sDZqbXKq/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

(https://i.postimg.cc/FFG0mgCJ/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

(https://i.postimg.cc/BbhFg4PC/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/wRm3xKVt)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on December 31, 2020, 08:19:11 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/nrgpkY3J/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

(https://i.postimg.cc/NF5QmP7D/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

(https://i.postimg.cc/pV6WRRR6/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/Z06tLk98)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on December 31, 2020, 08:19:36 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/T3rfVbmz/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/k2X09BTs)


Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on January 12, 2021, 05:29:21 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/BnMQbTw2/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on January 12, 2021, 05:29:50 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/QCQj31T9/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on January 12, 2021, 07:22:48 AM
https://mida.org.il/2021/01/11/דעה-ביביפוביה-מהי/
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on January 12, 2021, 03:48:23 PM
https://www.haaretz.co.il/amp/news/elections/.premium-MAGAZINE-1.9442087
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Dawie on January 14, 2021, 12:07:54 PM
/photo/1
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on January 17, 2021, 06:51:09 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/D0BBDXwT/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on January 18, 2021, 10:14:30 PM
https://t.me/amitsegal/9833

Analysis in English about Sa'ar hiring the founders of the Lincoln Project as consultants.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: YitzyS on January 18, 2021, 10:18:23 PM
https://t.me/amitsegal/9833

Analysis in English about Sa'ar hiring the founders of the Lincoln Project as consultants.
My novice analyses:

Okay, Israel, you thought politics was dirty? We'll show you what real dirty is! כמו באמריקא!
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: zh cohen on January 18, 2021, 10:56:56 PM
My novice analyses:

Okay, Israel, you thought politics was dirty? We'll show you what real dirty is! כמו באמריקא!

My novice analysis;

Mazel tov Bibi on your resounding victory.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: AsherO on January 18, 2021, 11:05:11 PM
https://t.me/amitsegal/9833

Analysis in English about Sa'ar hiring the founders of the Lincoln Project as consultants.

Is this guy saying what he thinks is happening, or what he’d like should happen?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on January 19, 2021, 11:23:02 AM
Is this guy saying what he thinks is happening, or what he’d like should happen?

He's reporting facts and giving his observations and analysis. He's pretty sharp and on the ball many times.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 24, 2021, 09:11:12 PM

In a brilliant move, Netanyahu is taking a leaf from the $2000 initiative that helped D's win Georgia and put forward a large stimulus in a direct assault on the long overreaching legal counsel and civil servants who really control Israel. I don't know how much more of the electorate is persuadable but Bibbi is playing a better game than ever. I hope he gets enough seats to pass significant capitalist reforms
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 27, 2021, 03:18:47 PM
I’m not sure where to post this, but this a beautiful display of honesty that will iyh foster unity

Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 31, 2021, 02:10:38 PM
The military draft exemption for Yeshiva students expires tonight.

https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel/2021_q1/Article-85410b9dd695771026.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802

Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on January 31, 2021, 02:13:42 PM
The military draft exemption for Yeshiva students expires tonight.

https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel/2021_q1/Article-85410b9dd695771026.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802

To those that might be rejoicing over this, the message is: be careful what you wish for, you might actually get it.

This entire fiasco was brought about by the Israeli supreme court and a bunch of people trying to earn political capital.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on January 31, 2021, 04:56:30 PM
The military draft exemption for Yeshiva students expires tonight.

https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel/2021_q1/Article-85410b9dd695771026.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802



Legally doesn't matter, even if Bagatz said so. Everything gets pushed off due to elections according to a חוק יסוד.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 31, 2021, 07:17:44 PM
Legally doesn't matter, even if Bagatz said so. Everything gets pushed off due to elections according to a חוק יסוד.

Nobody thinks Israeli will suddenly draft hundreds of thousands of Haredim tomorrow morning, but it's not as simple as you put it. Laws set to expire get an extension until after the elections, but this law isn't set to expire - it was ruled unconstitutional (yeah, I know the 'constitution' in Israel is a fiction created by courts), and the court allowed it to live on a temporary basis.

The Prime Minister Netanyahu is telling the court the extension applies to this as well, while the Defense Minister Gantz is saying the extension does not apply. On top of that, the Israeli courts have embraced the ridiculous AG/Government Counsel position that he has exclusive authority to represent the government/executive branch and ministers cannot represent themselves or hire outside counsel, so a lot depends on the position Mandelblit takes, which AFAIK isn't clear yet but will probably be with Netanyahu.

Gantz is in the unique position of both being very powerful as a Defense Minister that the Prime Minister cannot fire due to the rotation laws, and also hitting rock bottom politically so he has nothing to lose. In the lockdown meeting today, Gantz displayed an eagerness for ill fated populistic hail-marys, so there is no telling what he will do.

(Polls show Gantz right about the threshold of 4% percent, which if he crosses, according to some interpretations, allows him to become Prime Minister by default in November if a government isn't formed beforehand)

Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 31, 2021, 07:40:36 PM
ניסנקורן עזב את חולדאי אחרי חודש, אבל רק שתדעו שבתל אביב זה נחשב קשר רציני -Twitter
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on January 31, 2021, 07:49:26 PM
Nobody thinks Israeli will suddenly draft hundreds of thousands of Haredim tomorrow morning, but it's not as simple as you put it. Laws set to expire get an extension until after the elections, but this law isn't set to expire - it was ruled unconstitutional (yeah, I know the 'constitution' in Israel is a fiction created by courts), and the court allowed it to live on a temporary basis.

The Prime Minister Netanyahu is telling the court the extension applies to this as well, while the Defense Minister Gantz is saying the extension does not apply. On top of that, the Israeli courts have embraced the ridiculous AG/Government Counsel position that he has exclusive authority to represent the government/executive branch and ministers cannot represent themselves or hire outside counsel, so a lot depends on the position Mandelblit takes, which AFAIK isn't clear yet but will probably be with Netanyahu.

Gantz is in the unique position of both being very powerful as a Defense Minister that the Prime Minister cannot fire due to the rotation laws, and also hitting rock bottom politically so he has nothing to lose. In the lockdown meeting today, Gantz displayed an eagerness for ill fated populistic hail-marys, so there is no telling what he will do.

(Polls show Gantz right about the threshold of 4% percent, which if he crosses, according to some interpretations, allows him to become Prime Minister by default in November if a government isn't formed beforehand)

RBG had nothing on the Israelis
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 31, 2021, 09:49:05 PM

4 days to the party registration deadline
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yelped on January 31, 2021, 10:51:07 PM

4 days to the party registration deadline
What's the infighting in Agudah that they're referring to? (Hope I'm not opening a can of worms).
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 31, 2021, 10:54:18 PM
What's the infighting in Agudah that they're referring to? (Hope I'm not opening a can of worms).
Oh, I don’t even know. There’s a pretty good post from @yfr bachur explaining some of it somewhere
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yelped on January 31, 2021, 11:03:40 PM
Oh, I don’t even know. There’s a pretty good post from @yfr bachur explaining some of it somewhere
That was explaining the reasoning for Degel to split from Agudah. More or less what it says in this tweet.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: zh cohen on February 01, 2021, 01:11:03 PM
https://t.me/amitsegal/9833

Analysis in English about Sa'ar hiring the founders of the Lincoln Project as consultants.

Was John Weaver one of the founders that he hired?
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yfr bachur on February 03, 2021, 08:29:23 AM
What's the infighting in Agudah that they're referring to? (Hope I'm not opening a can of worms).
Oh, I don’t even know. There’s a pretty good post from @yfr bachur explaining some of it somewhere
It's here:
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=123076.msg2396455#msg2396455

My filter/browser doesn't allow me to see the tweet (its all coming up in Unicode ^$%#$) gibberish) so I don't know exactly what it's talking about, but I assume it's the following:

"Aguda" is not actually a unified political party, rather it's power/vote sharing arrangement where Gur, Viznitz, Belz, Boyan, a conglomeration of smaller chasidusen (that vote) all get representation (An MK, city councilmen...). In practice, they coordinate on many things, but each also run their own program...
If the "Moetzes" of Agudah decides on a particular position, and the Rebbe of Gur, or Belz feels differently, in many case the personal representative of the Gerrer/Belzer Rebbe will not follow the Moetzes rather his Rebbe. (Not picking on Gur or Belz, each chasidus can act this way). In effect each MK is not a representative of the Agudah party, rather a representative of his Chasidus.
The division within Agudah also extends to jobs within the party, shares of funding, land allocation...

The basis for the proportion of power within the Aguda is mostly based on a number of "primary" elections, that as far as I can tell were last held in the 60s or 70s. This basically has resulted in a status quo based on the relative sizes of the chasidusen at the time of the primaries since then.
Today, some of the constituent parts of Aguda feel that the division of power is outdated and should be updated. Calls have been made by various Mks and other parties to hold new primaries, but the effort has basically been blocked by the parts of the party that are happy with the current arrangements (read: their share will likely be reduced), and by worries on how to hold fair primaries (how to ensure that only members of Agudah constituent chasidusen can vote, and prevent other parties from messing with the results)
Before elections, when the parties have to set the order of their lists, is a time that the sections of Aguda can air their grievances with the power setup. It's also the time that they have leverage. In a theoretical situation, Degel could decide to run separately from Agudah, and Belz (to pick a name out of a hat) could join their list, ensuring that the degel list will pass the threshhold, while endangering Agudah... =leverage.

I am sure that there are many parts of the political puzzle that I do not know about, and there are many people that know much better whats going on...
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 03, 2021, 11:51:50 AM
Today, some of the constituent parts of Aguda feel that the division of power is outdated and should be updated. Calls have been made by various Mks and other parties to hold new primaries, but the effort has basically been blocked by the parts of the party that are happy with the current arrangements (read: their share will likely be reduced), and by worries on how to hold fair primaries (how to ensure that only members of Agudah constituent chasidusen can vote, and prevent other parties from messing with the results)
Before elections, when the parties have to set the order of their lists, is a time that the sections of Aguda can air their grievances with the power setup. It's also the time that they have leverage. In a theoretical situation, Degel could decide to run separately from Agudah, and Belz (to pick a name out of a hat) could join their list, ensuring that the degel list will pass the threshhold, while endangering Agudah... =leverage.

IINM said grievances about the proportionate power were what led to the founding of Degel. And Belz isn't just a name out of the hat, IINM they supported Degel in the past.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 03, 2021, 03:09:14 PM
https://www.srugim.co.il/amp?id=533504

When the super jealous talk like this, it actually gives me hope.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 04, 2021, 05:58:38 PM
In a brilliant move, Netanyahu is taking a leaf from the $2000 initiative that helped D's win Georgia and put forward a large stimulus in a direct assault on the long overreaching legal counsel and civil servants who really control Israel. I don't know how much more of the electorate is persuadable but Bibbi is playing a better game than ever. I hope he gets enough seats to pass significant capitalist reforms
For the first time, Netanyahu openly stated today he doesn't accept the legal counsel (Mandelblit) authority as binding, and considers their opinion only advisory. It's signaling a tectonic shift in the balance of power in Israel if Bibbi gets 61 seats, which I think he will.

ETA: Mandelblit is feeling the burn, he just released a press release at 1am trying to deny responsibility...
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 04, 2021, 06:20:54 PM

And then there was one


(HT @Drago)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 04, 2021, 06:35:24 PM

And then there was one


(HT @Drago)

That's only if you chose to believe Huldai.
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 04, 2021, 10:26:20 PM
I’m not sure where to post this, but this a beautiful display of honesty that will iyh foster unity
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on February 07, 2021, 03:28:55 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/ZKknmgQk/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/QVbhk6sS)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yfr bachur on February 07, 2021, 04:35:53 AM
It seems that the the "unpleasant feelings" within UTJ/Aguda have been resolved, for now, by giving Degel the odd spots on the list and Aguda the even ones, and flipping the spots of the representatives of Viznitz and Belz.

The first ten slots:
1 Moshe Gafni (Degel), 2 Yaakov Litzman (Gur), 3 Uri Maklev (Degel), 4 Meri Porush (Shlomie Emunim=Klal Chasidi), 5 Yaakov Asher (Degel), 6 Yisroel Eichler (Belz), 7 Yitzchok Pindrus (Degel), 8 Yaakov Tessler (Viznitz), 9 Eliyahu Baruchi (Degel), 10 Moshe Shimon Roth (Sanz)

Gafni from Degel is official head of party.
The addition of Roth as a representative of Sanz is an interesting bellwether of the current internal power dynamics within Aguda. Though the tenth slot is only realistic if UTJ enters the coalition and at least two-three members become ministers, on the list for the previous Knesset, the fifth Aguda slot was given to Eliyahu Chasid as a second representative of Gur

My take: It maybe that Degel is now acknowledged as bringing more voters to the table. Belz has gained power, at the expense of Gur, being forced to acknowledge that even though it is the largest chasidus, it must allow others to the table...

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 08, 2021, 09:14:05 AM
https://www.haaretz.co.il/amp/opinions/.premium-1.9518944

Ultra left is desperate in their anti Bibi thoughts.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on February 09, 2021, 04:00:43 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/C1Q0hvkc/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: AsherO on February 09, 2021, 06:27:55 AM
(https://i.postimg.cc/C1Q0hvkc/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

Is it true that a kollel family in Israel cost the State only 750NIS/month?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: JlmBoi on February 09, 2021, 06:47:32 AM
Is it true that a kollel family in Israel cost the State only 750NIS/month?
Def more. Notice its focused on the avrech himself not whole family. Even that number varies alot. Cost the state is a whole nother calculation. We pay so much VAT, if the military spend wasn't so high I believe the government would be from the richest.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: S209 on February 09, 2021, 08:56:39 AM
We pay so much VAT, if the military spend wasn't so high I believe the government would be from the richest.
That’s not really how governments become wealthy.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 09, 2021, 09:08:13 AM
That’s not really how governments become wealthy.

#graft is how they become wealthy.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on February 09, 2021, 01:07:37 PM
Legally doesn't matter, even if Bagatz said so. Everything gets pushed off due to elections according to a חוק יסוד.

‏בגץ קבע: מועד פקיעת חוק גיוס החרדים נדחה עד אחרי הבחירות

‏עמדה כאן שאלה משפטית - מצד אחד, על פי החלטת בגץ מ2019 החוק פקע בשבוע שעבר, אך מצד שני - חוק יסוד הכנסת מאריך את פקיעת החוק עד 3 חודשים אחרי הבחירות. כעת בגץ קבע כי ישנה עליונות בסוגיה הזו לחוק היסוד

No surprise
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 09, 2021, 10:19:58 PM
Radical case scenario for Bibbi:

Polls tend to discount the Likud by ~5 seats, so that puts him at 35 (same as they got in the last elections). Zalika, B&W/Gantz, Raam, Meretz, & Labor may all not pass but wast 15% of the vote (4 out of 5 almost definitely won't pass), which gives the Likud a 20% boost to 42. Shas and Gimmel retain their 16 + 20% for 19, giving the Likud + Charedim a government of 61. 

A less extreme outcome is for Labor to get in, bringing the Likud down to 39 and Charedim to 17, but Smotrich gets 5 which gives them 61.

A very likely outcome is for Labor to get in, the Likud to still be only 30-35, Charedim 15, and then if Smotrich gets in they can form a government with Bennet or Saar, and if Smotrich doesn't get in they need Saar.

Radical worst case scenario for Bibbi:

B&W, Meretz, Labor, and Raam get in, Lapid gets 18, Bennet 10, Saar 13, Liberman 7, creating a bloc of 61 anti-Bibbi seats even without the Arab parties, however, it all hinges on them all convalescing behind a single leader and somehow forming a government when the only thing they have in common is a desire too unseat Bibbi. Ego is very likely to impede that, especially if Saar and Lapid are closer together and there isn't a clear leader.

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yfr bachur on February 10, 2021, 10:07:01 AM
Radical case scenario for Bibbi:

Polls tend to discount the Likud by ~5 seats, so that puts him at 35 (same as they got in the last elections). Zalika, B&W/Gantz, Raam, Meretz, & Labor may all not pass but wast 15% of the vote (4 out of 5 almost definitely won't pass), which gives the Likud a 20% boost to 42. Shas and Gimmel retain their 16 + 20% for 19, giving the Likud + Charedim a government of 61. 

A less extreme outcome is for Labor to get in, bringing the Likud down to 39 and Charedim to 17, but Smotrich gets 5 which gives them 61.

A very likely outcome is for Labor to get in, the Likud to still be only 30-35, Charedim 15, and then if Smotrich gets in they can form a government with Bennet or Saar, and if Smotrich doesn't get in they need Saar.

Radical worst case scenario for Bibbi:

B&W, Meretz, Labor, and Raam get in, Lapid gets 18, Bennet 10, Saar 13, Liberman 7, creating a bloc of 61 anti-Bibbi seats even without the Arab parties, however, it all hinges on them all convalescing behind a single leader and somehow forming a government when the only thing they have in common is a desire too unseat Bibbi. Ego is very likely to impede that, especially if Saar and Lapid are closer together and there isn't a clear leader.

In these elections there are three possibilities:
1)Bibi Win
2)Anti Bibi Win
3)Stalemate (like after three of the last four elections)

Anti Bibi can only win if they have 61 seats who will sit together. It is almost impossible to see a scenario where Bennet and/or Liberman sit in a Govt with the likes of Meretz/Labour, and vice versa.
Stalemate wins if neither the Bibi or Anti Bibi can come to 61...this possible because it's even more unfathomable to see bennet/saar/liberman/gantz (to various degrees) sitting with the arab parties.
Bibi wins if he can convince 61 MKs to support him. Whatever the leaders of the Center-Right parties say now...lets see how much they really believe in "Never Bibi" after the elections. Israeli election declarations after the elections are worth less than an esrog after sukkos... In Bibi's favor is the fact that there will likely not be any "wasted" vote on the right vs the high likelihood of "wasted" votes for the left and Arab parties.

Interesting/important question
Has the last year caused any significant proportion of the Chareidi electorate to become disillusioned with Gimel, or to support the Peleg/Eida veiwpoint on elections?

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 01:12:36 PM
Has the last year caused any significant proportion of the Chareidi electorate to become disillusioned with Gimel, or to support the Peleg/Eida veiwpoint on elections?
Nobody is moving towards the Peleg, if it would've happened, it would've been from Chassiduses that felt disenfranchised.
What is likely to happen is some movement towards Smotrich from the liberal fringe of Gimmel, and the question is if it will be 10k votes or 100k. It's the only way Smotrich gets in (polls previously pretended Ben Gvir and Feiglen would get in), so it would be good for Bibbi.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: JlmBoi on February 10, 2021, 05:53:01 PM
Nobody is moving towards the Peleg, if it would've happened, it would've been from Chassiduses that felt disenfranchised.
What is likely to happen is some movement towards Smotrich from the liberal fringe of Gimmel, and the question is if it will be 10k votes or 100k. It's the only way Smotrich gets in (polls previously pretended Ben Gvir and Feiglen would get in), so it would be good for Bibbi.
Wouldn't Ben gvir + smotrich get in just from their union without charedi votes? Anyway, I have a feeling many many charedim will be voting for him.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 06:42:17 PM
Wouldn't Ben gvir + smotrich get in just from their union without charedi votes?
I very highly doubt it. Ben Gvir is worth 80,000 votes at most, and Smotrich has no proven electorate. Even with Charedi voters they are very likely not to get in.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 10, 2021, 07:47:10 PM
In these elections there are three possibilities:
1)Bibi Win
2)Anti Bibi Win
3)Stalemate (like after three of the last four elections)

Anti Bibi can only win if they have 61 seats who will sit together. It is almost impossible to see a scenario where Bennet and/or Liberman sit in a Govt with the likes of Meretz/Labour, and vice versa.
Stalemate wins if neither the Bibi or Anti Bibi can come to 61...this possible because it's even more unfathomable to see bennet/saar/liberman/gantz (to various degrees) sitting with the arab parties.
Bibi wins if he can convince 61 MKs to support him. Whatever the leaders of the Center-Right parties say now...lets see how much they really believe in "Never Bibi" after the elections. Israeli election declarations after the elections are worth less than an esrog after sukkos... In Bibi's favor is the fact that there will likely not be any "wasted" vote on the right vs the high likelihood of "wasted" votes for the left and Arab parties.

Interesting/important question
Has the last year caused any significant proportion of the Chareidi electorate to become disillusioned with Gimel, or to support the Peleg/Eida veiwpoint on elections?

Given the impossibility of coalescing together of the anti-Bibbi camp (Sa'ar, Bennet, just to name to pivot forces that might have serious problems with the rest of the anti-Bibbi camp) this is just as much of a stalemate as more "classical" stalemates.

Nobody is moving towards the Peleg, if it would've happened, it would've been from Chassiduses that felt disenfranchised.
What is likely to happen is some movement towards Smotrich from the liberal fringe of Gimmel, and the question is if it will be 10k votes or 100k. It's the only way Smotrich gets in (polls previously pretended Ben Gvir and Feiglen would get in), so it would be good for Bibbi.

Unfortunately I think Smotrich/Ben Gvir are likely to get many votes in Kfar Chabad and other Chabad communities. It's a lot more palatable than previous "religious zionist" lists, as it doesn't include the liberal/MO faction, and actually is expected to pass the threshold. Couple that with a dislike for Gafni, and I can easily see Smotritch/Ben Gvir getting more votes than Gimmel (which IMHO might be wrong, but luckily I don't vote in the Israeli elections so I am exempt from making a decision).
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 08:39:36 PM
Unfortunately I think Smotrich/Ben Gvir are likely to get many votes in Kfar Chabad and other Chabad communities. It's a lot more palatable than previous "religious zionist" lists, as it doesn't include the liberal/MO faction, and actually is expected to pass the threshold. Couple that with a dislike for Gafni, and I can easily see Smotritch/Ben Gvir getting more votes than Gimmel (which IMHO might be wrong, but luckily I don't vote in the Israeli elections so I am exempt from making a decision).
I assume you mean more votes than Gimmel in Kfar Chabad. Suggesting Smotrcih will get more overall votes than Gimmel is ridiculous.

The polls that show him getting in also showed Fieglin and Ben Gvir getting in in the past.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 10, 2021, 08:49:47 PM
I assume you mean more votes than Gimmel in Kfar Chabad. Suggesting Smotrcih will get more overall votes than Gimmel is ridiculous.

The polls that show him getting in also showed Fieglin and Ben Gvir getting in in the past.
Obviously, I was talking only about the vote amongst those that consider themselves affiliated with Chabad. I think both Smotritch/Ben Gvir and Shais take away Gimmel votes within that electorate.

The current playing field is very different than the one where Feiglin and Ben Gvir had some polls getting them in where they didn’t.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 10, 2021, 10:33:57 PM
https://www.kikar.co.il/amp/385319

Some of these young guys should be reading יהדות התורה והמדינה. They really don't know what's wrong with zionism.

When Ben Gvir was running alone I really wondered how people would reconcile voting for him with his advocating going onto הר הבית, against the ruling of (almost) all Halachic authorities (it was an explicit part of his platform IIRC).
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yfr bachur on February 11, 2021, 04:57:15 AM
Nobody is moving towards the Peleg, if it would've happened, it would've been from Chassiduses that felt disenfranchised.
What is likely to happen is some movement towards Smotrich from the liberal fringe of Gimmel, and the question is if it will be 10k votes or 100k. It's the only way Smotrich gets in (polls previously pretended Ben Gvir and Feiglen would get in), so it would be good for Bibbi.

I don't mean that in the last year they went from going to vote to now sitting in the street blocking traffic because some bachur is in jail.
I mean: Influenced to stop voting. There were/are people who were/are on the fence about voting.

I do agree that it is likely that members of the Chardal kehillos who were uncomfortable with the previous Dati Leumi lists, will vote for Smotrich. His deal with Ben Gvir also includes Noam , (which I believe is) the party of Har HaMor, the more chareidi part of the datal spectrum.
It's a three party block, I would be shocked if it didn't get in.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on February 11, 2021, 07:00:36 AM
Some of these young guys should be reading יהדות התורה והמדינה. They really don't know what's wrong with zionism.
Please enlighten us, what's wrong with zionism?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on February 11, 2021, 07:18:14 AM
I heard an interview today with Porush on Kol Baramah. He was being asked about this - Charedim abandoning gimmel and voting for Smotrich/Ben Gvir.
He first dismissed it out of hand, saying that every election cycle there is talk about charedim moving to Likud or Bennet and there is even polling indicating that and it never plays out (a better interviewer would have asked here about the mayoral elections in Beit Shemesh, but I digress)
They followed up and said - that's different - to vote Likud or Bennet you really have to put your frumkeit on the side, but this is a true dati party.
He responded that anyone who feels מושמד as a charedi will understand that they need to vote for gimmel. Smotrich won't take care of you - he will take care of bnei akiva, not charedim (he ignored the question as to why he couldn't care for both). He added, if anything there are dati leumi/chardalniks who empathize with the plight of the charedim as an oppressed people and will vote gimmel in solidarity.

I honestly find the argument to be so weak - vote for us because you are an oppressed victim and we are the only ones who will defend you. Such a negative propaganda based campaign.

I think gimmel has 3 sets of voters:
1. Those who ideologically are in line with the party
2. Those who fear the propaganda and think without the party, the state will raid them at night and shmad their children
3. Those who are reluctant to vote against the gedolim and fear going up to shamayim and having to answer why they didn't put their lot with the charedim ldvar hashem (for the record I'm part of this group)

I wonder what percentage fit into group 2 and group 3 and at what point the grip will be loosened and they will start to lose those voters in large numbers
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: AsherO on February 11, 2021, 09:17:48 AM
[quote author=ExGingi link=topic=102114.msg2402778#msg2402778 date=1613014437
Some of these young guys should be reading יהדות התורה והמדינה. They really don't know what's wrong with zionism.
[/quote]

PDF please?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: YitzyS on February 11, 2021, 09:34:15 AM
Please enlighten us, what's wrong with zionism?
Here is a transcript of a schmooze given by Rav Dovid Soloveitchik zt"l about 8 years ago. It was widely circulated around Eretz Yisroel at the time, and yeshivos all over the county gave it out. I know it's long, but it's extremely enlightening, and until I read this, I did not understand the Brisker outlook of Zionism.


 
(https://i.postimg.cc/43RTrc11/01.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/YvRVFhZ4)

(https://i.postimg.cc/pVcMP4Zr/02.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/yWRbPf2C)

(https://i.postimg.cc/6qmkz43n/03.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/tnFv4TF4)

(https://i.postimg.cc/DZBkJM3C/04.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/WFFfxS3r)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 11, 2021, 09:36:43 AM
I heard an interview today with Porush on Kol Baramah. He was being asked about this - Charedim abandoning gimmel and voting for Smotrich/Ben Gvir.
He first dismissed it out of hand, saying that every election cycle there is talk about charedim moving to Likud or Bennet and there is even polling indicating that and it never plays out (a better interviewer would have asked here about the mayoral elections in Beit Shemesh, but I digress)
They followed up and said - that's different - to vote Likud or Bennet you really have to put your frumkeit on the side, but this is a true dati party.
He responded that anyone who feels מושמד as a charedi will understand that they need to vote for gimmel. Smotrich won't take care of you - he will take care of bnei akiva, not charedim (he ignored the question as to why he couldn't care for both). He added, if anything there are dati leumi/chardalniks who empathize with the plight of the charedim as an oppressed people and will vote gimmel in solidarity.

I honestly find the argument to be so weak - vote for us because you are an oppressed victim and we are the only ones who will defend you. Such a negative propaganda based campaign.

I think gimmel has 3 sets of voters:
1. Those who ideologically are in line with the party
2. Those who fear the propaganda and think without the party, the state will raid them at night and shmad their children
3. Those who are reluctant to vote against the gedolim and fear going up to shamayim and having to answer why they didn't put their lot with the charedim ldvar hashem (for the record I'm part of this group)

I wonder what percentage fit into group 2 and group 3 and at what point the grip will be loosened and they will start to lose those voters in large numbers

Then there are those that consider themselves Lubavitchers, and will therefore not align themselves with any party, and try to follow the instruction to vote for "המפלגה החרדית ביותר" and will therefore vote Gimmel, while others might see Smotritch/Ben Gvir as more fitting that description, while others might find Shas more befitting of that description.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on February 11, 2021, 09:44:04 AM
Please enlighten us, what's wrong with zionism?
If it wasn't clear, I meant religious zionism
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 11, 2021, 09:51:42 AM
If it wasn't clear, I meant religious zionism

I suggest you read http://www.daat.ac.il/daat/history/tnuot/yahadut-2.htm it is spelled out there better than I might be able to convey it.

AFAIK א. גיטלין is a pseudonym used by Hagaon Uriel Zimmer A"H. Rumor has it that this was written with the encouragement of the Rebbe.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on February 11, 2021, 09:52:14 AM
If it wasn't clear, I meant religious zionism
What is religious about zionism?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 11, 2021, 09:54:43 AM
What is religious about zionism?

Well said. I am sure everyone 'round here is familiar with the famous line of the רס"ג
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on February 11, 2021, 10:24:13 AM
What is religious about zionism?
Have you read Tanach? A deep desire for the land of Israel is something very deeply rooted in our religion.

I don't think my definition of zionism is what is being addressed in any of these articles/kuntresim
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on February 11, 2021, 10:27:43 AM
Have you read Tanach? A deep desire for the land of Israel is something very deeply rooted in our religion.

I don't think my definition of zionism is what is being addressed in any of these articles/kuntresim
What does a deep desire for the land have to do with zionism?
It will be difficult for anyone to discuss your top secret definition of zionism without proper security clearance. ::)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: AsherO on February 11, 2021, 11:01:43 AM
AFAIK א. גיטלין is a pseudonym used by Hgaon Uriel Zimmer A"H. Rumor has it that this was written with the encouragement of the Rebbe.

Found this:

https://www.amazon.com/Torah-Judaism-State-Israel-Uriel-Zimmer/dp/B0007IW2DS

And in English, poor PDF quality:
https://www.truetorahjews.org/images/torah_judaism_and_the_state_of_israel.pdf
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 11, 2021, 12:03:25 PM
Found this:

https://www.amazon.com/Torah-Judaism-State-Israel-Uriel-Zimmer/dp/B0007IW2DS

And in English, poor PDF quality:
https://www.truetorahjews.org/images/torah_judaism_and_the_state_of_israel.pdf

I was unaware of the fact that it was published in English too. Was it his own translation? If yes did he translate it to any of other 8 languages in which he was fluent?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on February 11, 2021, 12:37:31 PM
I heard an interview today with Porush on Kol Baramah. He was being asked about this - Charedim abandoning gimmel and voting for Smotrich/Ben Gvir.
He first dismissed it out of hand, saying that every election cycle there is talk about charedim moving to Likud or Bennet and there is even polling indicating that and it never plays out (a better interviewer would have asked here about the mayoral elections in Beit Shemesh, but I digress)
They followed up and said - that's different - to vote Likud or Bennet you really have to put your frumkeit on the side, but this is a true dati party.
He responded that anyone who feels מושמד as a charedi will understand that they need to vote for gimmel. Smotrich won't take care of you - he will take care of bnei akiva, not charedim (he ignored the question as to why he couldn't care for both). He added, if anything there are dati leumi/chardalniks who empathize with the plight of the charedim as an oppressed people and will vote gimmel in solidarity.

I honestly find the argument to be so weak - vote for us because you are an oppressed victim and we are the only ones who will defend you. Such a negative propaganda based campaign.

I think gimmel has 3 sets of voters:
1. Those who ideologically are in line with the party
2. Those who fear the propaganda and think without the party, the state will raid them at night and shmad their children
3. Those who are reluctant to vote against the gedolim and fear going up to shamayim and having to answer why they didn't put their lot with the charedim ldvar hashem (for the record I'm part of this group)

I wonder what percentage fit into group 2 and group 3 and at what point the grip will be loosened and they will start to lose those voters in large numbers

I like your number 3. For these people (Americans etc.), Reb Chaim is a very strong tool.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 12:55:11 PM
what percentage fit into group 2 and group 3 and at what point the grip will be loosened and they will start to lose those voters in large numbers
There are definitely some. Time will tell if it’s 10k or 100k.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on February 11, 2021, 02:12:11 PM
What does a deep desire for the land have to do with zionism?
It will be difficult for anyone to discuss your top secret definition of zionism without proper security clearance. ::)
My understand of religious zionism is the movement to return to the holy land as a kiyum of the mitzvah d'oraisah (according to most rishonim) of yishuv haaretz and kiyum of divrei haneviim to return and prosper in eretz yisroel and to do that with our own state in order to preserve self determination and help with the stability of said return
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 02:30:36 PM
My understand of religious zionism is the movement to return to the holy land as a kiyum of the mitzvah d'oraisah
Very few (Satmer?) argue with that
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 03:02:32 PM
If there was any question that the Israeli DOJ prosecution is infinitely more corrupt than Bibbi here they are lying in court again

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on February 11, 2021, 03:05:26 PM
Very few (Satmer?) argue with that
Yup. It is the rest that is contentious.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 11, 2021, 03:19:05 PM
Very few (Satmer?) argue with that

There are many that don't hold that there is such a Mitzvah s'Oraisa.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 03:41:13 PM
If there was any question that the Israeli DOJ prosecution is infinitely more corrupt than Bibbi here they are lying in court again

There are many that don't hold that there is such a Mitzvah s'Oraisa.
True. But few don’t see it as a positive inyan.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on February 11, 2021, 03:47:31 PM
There are many that don't hold that there is such a Mitzvah s'Oraisa.
{citation needed}
(Not being counted among the taryag is not a raayah)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 11, 2021, 03:57:52 PM
{citation needed}
(Not being counted among the taryag is not a raayah)

Huh? You're asking for a citation that something doesn't exist?

How about you bring citations from sifrei Halacha (Rambam, Tur, Rif, Shulchan Oruch, etc.) that it is a מצוות עשה דאורייתא?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on February 11, 2021, 04:40:02 PM
Huh? You're asking for a citation that something doesn't exist?

How about you bring citations from sifrei Halacha (Rambam, Tur, Rif, Shulchan Oruch, etc.) that it is a מצוות עשה דאורייתא?
I'm sure you are aware that Tur/Rif/Shulchan Aruch do not mention many mitzvos aseh d'oraisah. Though https://www.sefaria.org/Shulchan_Arukh%2C_Even_HaEzer.74?lang=he halacha daled and heh are clear that you can compel a spouse to move to EY. Rambam in hilchos avadim/hilchos ishus says similar. Most acharonim, (avnei nezer, chasam sofer, chazon ish, etc.) assume the Rambam held it's a mitzvas aseh d'oraisah

It's not like there is a shortage of discussion on the topic, so you aren't really looking for "something that doesn't exist"
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on February 11, 2021, 04:41:18 PM
מצוה רביעית שנצטוינו לרשת הארץ
אשר נתן הא-ל יתברך ויתעלה לאבותינו
לאברהם ליצחק וליעקב ולא נעזבה ביד
זולתינו מן האומות או לשממה.
השגות הרמב"ן
שכחת העשין
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 11, 2021, 04:57:02 PM
מצוה רביעית שנצטוינו לרשת הארץ
אשר נתן הא-ל יתברך ויתעלה לאבותינו
לאברהם ליצחק וליעקב ולא נעזבה ביד
זולתינו מן האומות או לשממה.
השגות הרמב"ן
שכחת העשין

@Ergel specifically excluded not counting it in 613 as a raaya. So the fact that the Ramban (which IINM is the exception) counts it, doesn't either preclude the fact that many do not consider it a Mitzvah.

I'm sure you are aware that Tur/Rif/Shulchan Aruch do not mention many mitzvos aseh d'oraisah. Though https://www.sefaria.org/Shulchan_Arukh%2C_Even_HaEzer.74?lang=he halacha daled and heh are clear that you can compel a spouse to move to EY. Rambam in hilchos avadim/hilchos ishus says similar.
That Halacha is a Mishna in Kesubos (13:11). Doesn't yet make it a מצוות עשה דאורייתא of yishuv Eretz Yisroel.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ellemeno on February 11, 2021, 05:02:38 PM
There's a popular confusion between מצות כיבוש and מצות ישוב. The latter is an undisputed מצוה הנוהגת בזמן הזה (this view is also stressed in v'lyoel moshe). But the former is a matter of dispute whether it is considered such.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on February 11, 2021, 05:10:00 PM
@
That Halacha is a Mishna in Kesubos (13:11). Doesn't yet make it a מצוות עשה דאורייתא of yishuv Eretz Yisroel.
Possibly, thought it's odd for a mitzvah drabanan or less (?). You caught off half of my quote where I quoted many acharonim who assume in the Rambam that it's a mitzvah d'oraisah despite not being counted.
The Gaon also held it is a mitzvah d'oraish, as does Rav Moshe, though not a mitzvah chiyuvis
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 11, 2021, 05:14:09 PM
Possibly, thought it's odd for a mitzvah drabanan or less (?). You caught off half of my quote where I quoted many acharonim who assume in the Rambam that it's a mitzvah d'oraisah despite not being counted.
The Gaon also held it is a mitzvah d'oraish, as does Rav Moshe, though not a mitzvah chiyuvis

IINM you didn't quote any achronim, you just mentioned names. Actual quotes would be appreciated.

For those that hold that it is a Mitzvah deoriasa (בזמן הזה), what are the details? How does one fulfill it?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on February 11, 2021, 05:51:40 PM
For those that hold that it is a Mitzvah deoriasa (בזמן הזה), what are the details? How does one fulfill it?

Wouldn't the act of moving to Eretz Yisrael and living in a property there already make him mekayem the mitzva? I would say that it's hard to argue that only some hilltop youth living east of Shechem are mekayem the mitzva and not people who live in cities well within the Green Line.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on February 11, 2021, 05:53:47 PM
Wouldn't the act of moving to Eretz Yisrael and living in a property there already make him mekayem the mitzva? I would say that it's hard to argue that only some hilltop youth living east of Shechem are mekayem the mitzva and not people who live in cities well within the Green Line.
I assume he is referring to those that hold that the kiyum mitzvah is accomplished by Jewish sovereignty, so no need to live there
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 11, 2021, 05:55:27 PM
Wouldn't the act of moving to Eretz Yisrael and living in a property there already make him mekayem the mitzva? I would say that it's hard to argue that only some hilltop youth living east of Shechem are mekayem the mitzva and not people who live in cities well within the Green Line.

So are you saying it's almost like Sukkah? Source?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on February 11, 2021, 06:05:42 PM
Shulchan Aruch OC 248:4

היוצאים בשיירא במדבר והכל יודעים שהם צריכים לחלל שבת כי מפני הסכנ' לא יוכלו לעכב במדבר בשבת לבדם ג' ימים קודם שבת אסורים לצאת וביום ראשון ובשני ובשלישי מותר לצאת ואם אח"כ יארע לו סכנה ויצטרך לחלל שבת מפני פקוח נפש מותר ואין כאן חילול והעולה לארץ ישראל אם נזדמנה לו שיירא אפילו בערב שבת כיון דדבר מצוה היא יכול לפרוש ופוסק עמהם לשבות ואם אחר שיהיו במדבר לא ירצו לשבות עמו יכול ללכת עמהם חוץ לתחום מפני פיקוח נפש ואם נכנס לעיר אחת בשבת מהלך את כולה ואפי' הניחוהו מחוץ לעיר ורוצה ליכנס לעיר מותר דכיון דלדבר מצוה נפק יש לו אלפים אמה לכל רוח: הגה י"א שכל מקום שאדם הולך לסחורה או לראות פני חבירו חשוב הכל דבר מצוה ואינו חשוב דבר הרשות רק כשהולך לטייל וע"כ נהגו בקצת מקומות להקל בענין הפלגת הספינות והליכת שיירא תוך שלשה ימים כי חושבים הכל לדבר מצוה ואין למחות בידן הואיל ויש להם על מי שיסמוכו

Magen Avraham 248:14

והעולה לא"י. ודוק' ע"ד להתיישב וי"א אפי' ע"מ להחזיר כיון דאפי' מהלך ד"א בא"י מצוה היא

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 13, 2021, 09:35:17 PM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yfr bachur on February 14, 2021, 08:54:32 AM
Great, I go to talk politics, and a Sugya breaks out... ;D
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on February 14, 2021, 10:35:57 AM
Great, I go to talk politics, and a Sugya breaks out... ;D
You have the right to remain silent. Everything you say can and will be used to start a religious discussion.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yelped on February 14, 2021, 02:26:45 PM
So are you saying it's almost like Sukkah? Source?
Plus another few places in Hilchos Shabbos where you see it's a mitza eseh doraysa that certain Drabanon's are doiche from it.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 14, 2021, 02:28:21 PM
There is a lot of emphasis on the Arab vote which is another way to break the stalemate.

Quote
המהלך של רע"מ בראשות מנסור עבאס הוא הרבה מעבר לוויכוח פוליטי פנים מגזרי. למהלך הזה עשוייה להיות השפעה דרמטית על כל המערכת הפוליטית. לא מדובר באפיזודה חולפת.

בואו ניכנס לעומק המגמות שאנחנו מזהים אותן, והפעם בעברית ובערבית כפי שמתבקש:

1. מנסור עבאס עשה מהלך פוליטי מבריק. הוא תוייג בעבר כפלג הקטן והדתי בחברה הערבית, והפך ממפלגה דתית למפלגה דתית חברתית, במהלך שמזכיר מאוד את צמיחתה המטאורית של תנועת ש"ס בשנות ה- 90.

2. הרחוב הערבי, שדורש בשנים האחרונות סדר יום אזרחי ופתרונות ממשלתיים למצוקות היום יום, "העניש" את ראשי הרשימה המשותפת באפריל 2019 ולא הגיע לקלפיות. מנהיגיו קלטו את המסר, ושינו את מיקוד הקמפיינים משיח מדיני - לשיח חברתי. אבל, במבחן התוצאה, לאחר הבחירות העדיפו ברשימה המשותפת להיות "הפראיירים" של עופר שלח ומחנה "רק לא ביבי", והתוצאה הסתיימה כשבני גנץ נכנס לממשלת אחדות עם נתניהו והפוליטיקאים הערבים נשארו בחוץ ובלי הפתרונות.

3. מנסור עבאס זיהה את התסכול של הציבור הערבי, ובשנה האחרונה עשה בריתות פוליטיות עם הימין ועם רה"מ נתניהו שהביאו לתוצאות מעשיות בשטח. בכך הפך עבאס להיות "התקווה הלבנה" גם בקרב המצביעים הצעירים והחילונים הערבים ששואפים לישראליזציה מואצת. נזכיר שהשינויים הללו מגיעים בין השאר מתוך משבר הקורונה וחתימת "הסכמי אברהם" שיש להם השפעה אדירה על החברה הערבית בטווח הארוך.

4. בדבר אחד טועים התקשורת והפוליטיקאים הישראלים: מנסור עבאס לא החליף פטרון שמאלני בפטרון ימני. הוא פשוט החליט שאין לו צורך בסוכנים ומתווכים. הוא בעצמו יישב עם כל ממשלה שתבחר וידאג למגזר שלו ביחסי תן וקח, כמו שעושים כל הפוליטיקאים בכנסת ובעיקר במפלגות החרדיות.

5. התוצאה הראשונה של ריצתו העצמאית של עבאס היא ירידת כוחו של הליכוד בחברה הערבית. נתניהו הפסיק את סיוריו ברשויות הערביות, והליכוד חזר לגודלו הטבעי במגזר, עם תמיכה של כחצי מנדט בלבד.

6. סקר עומק נוסף שערכנו בשבוע שעבר, מראה כי למרות שרוב הציבור הערבי היה רוצה להחליף את נתניהו, הם מעריכים כי הוא יכהן בכל זאת גם כראש הממשלה הבא, ורוב גדול בחברה הערבית תומך בדיאלוג ושותפות "עם כל ממשלה שתבחר".

7. מנסור עבאס המוסלמי הדתי, "עשה בית ספר לפוליטיקה" לאחמד טיבי ואיימן עודה המשכילים והמנוסים ממנו, והוא זוכה בסקרים שלנו נכון לעכשיו לתמיכה של קרוב ל- 5 מנדטים, כאשר הרשימה המשותפת יורדת ל- 7 מנדטים.

ב- 24 במרץ נדע האם התמרון הפוליטי הזה יסתיים במפח נפש נוסף, או אולי יסמן את תחילתו של עידן חדש בפוליטיקה הישראלית.



בא לקלל ונמצא מברך, he is literally showing Bibbi uniting the 2 opposite extreme fringes of Israel
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 14, 2021, 03:58:57 PM
For the first time, Netanyahu openly stated today he doesn't accept the legal counsel (Mandelblit) authority as binding, and considers their opinion only advisory. It's signaling a tectonic shift in the balance of power in Israel if Bibbi gets 61 seats, which I think he will.

ETA: Mandelblit is feeling the burn, he just released a press release at 1am trying to deny responsibility...
Next chapter in Netanyahu's crusade against the legal deep state (he asked them to propose enforcement/legislation drafts to mandate vaccination)

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: gozalim on February 14, 2021, 08:25:58 PM
https://www.kikar.co.il/amp/385319

Some of these young guys should be reading יהדות התורה והמדינה. They really don't know what's wrong with zionism.

When Ben Gvir was running alone I really wondered how people would reconcile voting for him with his advocating going onto הר הבית, against the ruling of (almost) all Halachic authorities (it was an explicit part of his platform IIRC).
he has a father and a grandfather...
in hi s particular case i don't think it's ignorance, more like independence. and he tiptoes along an interesting line with this article...
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 15, 2021, 03:10:14 PM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 16, 2021, 12:49:57 AM
[/youtube]

Bibbi gave an epic interview yesterday. The channel and interviewer hate Bibbi more than Fox hates Biden. One pundit said Bibbi crashed into an iceberg and the iceberg lost.

I really hope he gets some serious mRNA production and R&D in Israel. That can be a real מעז יצא מתוק
Title: Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on February 16, 2021, 06:52:43 AM
https://t.me/amitsegal/9833

Analysis in English about Sa'ar hiring the founders of the Lincoln Project as consultants.
Saar just fired them
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on February 21, 2021, 06:58:50 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/9FttwnqW/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 21, 2021, 08:26:24 PM
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla to visit Israel on March 8. Bibbi has said they're negotiating creating a new facility in Israel
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 22, 2021, 01:44:36 AM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on February 22, 2021, 02:12:45 AM

The simple truth is that there is currently no-one that comes close to Netanyahu's abilities vying to replace him And they all know it!
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on February 25, 2021, 05:27:29 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/Fs2K4YBD/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 07, 2021, 03:49:03 AM
(https://i.postimg.cc/FzddjRZG/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/JH8z8RSB)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yfr bachur on March 08, 2021, 10:09:32 AM
(https://i.postimg.cc/FzddjRZG/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/JH8z8RSB)

While true, this will probably get Shas into trouble...
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 08, 2021, 01:50:43 PM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 08, 2021, 01:55:02 PM

Yup, it's looking more and more like Bennet, Saar, and Lapid are managing to unite for a 3 pronged anti-Bibbi coalition.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 08, 2021, 01:59:28 PM
Yup, it's looking more and more like Bennet, Saar, and Lapid are managing to unite for a 3 pronged anti-Bibbi coalition.
So Lapid is going to lay down and let Bennet be PM?
I don't see Bennet being DM to Lapid instead of Bibi, he doesn't gain anything
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 08, 2021, 02:38:34 PM
So Lapid is going to lay down and let Bennet be PM?
I don't see Bennet being DM to Lapid instead of Bibi, he doesn't gain anything
I agree, Lapid would rather remain opposition head under Bibbi and live to fight another day.

I do think Bennet will agree to give Lapid a rotation if Bennet goes first, even though he says he won't.

Sa'ar will almost definitely agree to accept a 2d or 3rd place in the rotation.

Lapid might agree to let Bennet go first, especially judging by his rhetoric now. Granted when he wins 3x the seats Bennet does that may change, but it's appearing more and more likely.

If the 3 of them agree on a 3-way rotation, the question is if they can find enough support to reach 61, and it's likely the labor & liberman will agree to anything to replace Bibbi. Then you have Meretz/Gantz and even Smotrich that can join on.

The last question is if they get a mandate from Rivlin before Bibbi does (or Bibbi gets to try first but fails).

The bottom line is, the more Lapid is willing to give in to Bennet, the more likely Bibbi is to be replaced.



Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 08, 2021, 03:21:05 PM
This is priceless

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 08, 2021, 03:45:20 PM
I agree, Lapid would rather remain opposition head under Bibbi and live to fight another day.

I do think Bennet will agree to give Lapid a rotation if Bennet goes first, even though he says he won't.

Sa'ar will almost definitely agree to accept a 2d or 3rd place in the rotation.

Lapid might agree to let Bennet go first, especially judging by his rhetoric now. Granted when he wins 3x the seats Bennet does that may change, but it's appearing more and more likely.

If the 3 of them agree on a 3-way rotation, the question is if they can find enough support to reach 61, and it's likely the labor & liberman will agree to anything to replace Bibbi. Then you have Meretz/Gantz and even Smotrich that can join on.

The last question is if they get a mandate from Rivlin before Bibbi does (or Bibbi gets to try first but fails).

The bottom line is, the more Lapid is willing to give in to Bennet, the more likely Bibbi is to be replaced.
Does Bennet take left-wing gov't with 3-way PM over DM in the most right-wing gov't in Israel's history?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 08, 2021, 03:48:32 PM
Does Bennet take left-wing gov't with 3-way PM over DM in the most right-wing gov't in Israel's history?
Definitely, IMO. Left and right wing are mostly buzzwords nowadays, Bibbi and Lapid are pretty much on the same page policy wise.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yfr bachur on March 09, 2021, 06:38:13 AM
Bibbi and Lapid are pretty much on the same page policy wise.

If you could flesh that thought out, I'd be interested to hear why you think that.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 09, 2021, 06:44:44 AM
If you could flesh that thought out, I'd be interested to hear why you think that.
What would be the difference between them on the traditional left VS right spectrum? Neither are annexing territory and neither are handing territory back. Both are committed to a 2 state solution and the PA is the one stalling.

Netanyahu uses pro frum rhetoric and Lapid used to be outspoken against the frum, but what difference is there really? Nobody is going to draft Yeshiva guys, maybe Lapid would take away some budgets.

Netanyahu speaks against the justice system, and Lapid backs them up. But Netanyahu is in control for a decade already, it’s his justice system. He chose Mandeblit himself.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 09, 2021, 06:47:59 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/kG193Qr2/Screenshot-2021-03-09-134654.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 10, 2021, 06:50:26 AM
‏נתניהו נוסע מחר ליעד לא ידוע בחו"ל; כל הלו"ז שלו בוטל
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 10, 2021, 06:54:58 AM
‏ברייקינג: ראש הממשלה בנימין נתניהו יטוס מחר לביקור ראשון באיחוד האמירויות וייפגש עם יורש העצר מוחמד בן זייד באבו דאבי, כך אומרים לי בכירים ערבים שמעורים בנושא
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 10, 2021, 11:22:30 AM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 10, 2021, 04:48:22 PM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 11, 2021, 10:35:23 AM
You can't make this stuff up:

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 11, 2021, 06:34:55 PM
You can't make this stuff up:

That's not real, is it?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 11, 2021, 06:35:04 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/headlines-breaking-stories/1956285/report-ehud-barak-yair-lapid-torpedoed-pms-visit-to-uae.html
Crazy
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 11, 2021, 11:39:27 PM
That's not real, is it?
While I wouldn't put anything beyond Israelis, seeing the details of העותרת indicates that this isn't real.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yesitsme on March 12, 2021, 12:09:40 AM
It sad how personal they make this election thing



Hold your nose do what you gotta do and move on
In EY everyone is either for it as one of the greatest mitzvos one can do or the other way around
Do they have chabad stands encouraging people to vote? I can totally see it happening with all this brainwashing
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 12, 2021, 03:47:22 AM
It sad how personal they make this election thing

Hold your nose do what you gotta do and move on
In EY everyone is either for it as one of the greatest mitzvos one can do or the other way around
Do they have chabad stands encouraging people to vote? I can totally see it happening with all this brainwashing

@yesitsme Who would you vote for?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yesitsme on March 12, 2021, 06:53:33 AM
@yesitsme Who would you vote for?
שג
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 12, 2021, 09:10:02 AM
It sad how personal they make this election thing


Hold your nose do what you gotta do and move on
In EY everyone is either for it as one of the greatest mitzvos one can do or the other way around
Do they have chabad stands encouraging people to vote? I can totally see it happening with all this brainwashing

Not sure what you mean by personal.

TBH, holding one's nose is required when seeing the words "קודם כל חרדי".

As I've said before, and harping on what you just said, that [amongst the "charedi" community] "In EY everyone is either for it as one of the greatest mitzvos one can do or the other way around" the campaign efforts should be focused and targeted towards those that are the antithesis to what UTJ would like to accomplish. They should be targeting potential Lieberman voters in an effort to discredit him as an opportunist, without bad mouting him. Showing how he is a Jew (and like every Jew is holy) and has been a very good friend to the "charedim" for many years, until he realized that being anti is a good wave to ride on in order to gain political power, and that his actual positive accomplishments in life are ZERO, while UTJ and Shas MKs (and "Charedi" organizations such as Rabbi Firer, Ezer MiTzion, Zaka, etc. help everyone that seeks or needs their help, without asking background questions or demanding anything).
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 12, 2021, 09:13:57 AM
Zaka
You may not want to shine the spotlight there today.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yesitsme on March 12, 2021, 09:45:27 AM
You may not want to shine the spotlight there today.
what now?

Not sure what you mean by personal.
you ever had a conversation with an Israeli about elections? you would think your discussing lehavdil moshe rabbeinu (or now you can say trump), they live it they breath it and they love it, its a [peaceful] protest in a way, local politics gets awful
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 12, 2021, 09:53:01 AM
you ever had a conversation with an Israeli about elections? you would think your discussing lehavdil moshe rabbeinu (or now you can say trump), they live it they breath it and they love it

Imagine if Trump ran for office 4 times in a 2 year period...
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yesitsme on March 12, 2021, 09:53:59 AM
Imagine if Trump ran for office 4 times in a 2 year period...
I have this mindset from 10+ years ago
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 12, 2021, 10:04:32 AM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 12, 2021, 10:35:27 AM
You may not want to shine the spotlight there today.

Zaka is good despite who YMZ is (what makes one "Charedi"?)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 14, 2021, 10:43:15 AM
Zaka is good despite who YMZ is
100%
Quote
(what makes one "Charedi"?)
I mean, no true Charedi would do what they are alleging he did, right?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 14, 2021, 11:17:55 AM
I mean, no true Charedi would do what they are alleging he did, right?

I honestly don't know what a "true Charedi" or for that matter "Charedi" is. I despise and detest labels, especially when they seems to be based on the most superficial aspects.

I am not referring to the current allegations, but rather to confessed and admitted actions.

He seems to confess to full blown zionism (even if he won't say Hallel on the 5th of Iyar).
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 14, 2021, 11:18:45 AM
I honestly don't know what a "true Charedi" or for that matter "Charedi" is. I despise and detest labels, especially when they seems to be based on the most superficial aspects.

I am not referring to the current allegations, but rather to confessed and admitted actions.

He seems to confess to full blown zionism (even if he won't say Hallel on the 5th of Iyar).
Fair enough, and I imagine many others will (now) make this argument. But I bet a few weeks ago they would have taken credit for ZAKA as a charedi institution
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 14, 2021, 08:00:41 PM
Fair enough, and I imagine many others will (now) make this argument. But I bet a few weeks ago they would have taken credit for ZAKA as a charedi institution

ZAKA started off presenting itself as a "charedi" institution. (and YMZ himself presented himself as such at an earlier stage in his life, though many saw him for what he was).
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 15, 2021, 08:15:51 AM

😂
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 15, 2021, 09:24:33 AM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: AsherO on March 15, 2021, 01:44:12 PM

Is that a bodyguard knocking the guy in the back of the head? :P
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 18, 2021, 06:53:51 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/zXzQzDfT/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/HjNz3gXL)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 18, 2021, 06:54:12 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/gk2M9MMD/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/F1wb3xXd)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 18, 2021, 06:55:00 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/Hnstgxtx/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 18, 2021, 03:58:13 PM
I support Bibbi but actually had some respect for Gantz until I saw this

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 18, 2021, 06:20:46 PM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: AsherO on March 18, 2021, 06:54:11 PM

It’s all to take credit and get votes, obviously.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 18, 2021, 07:54:48 PM
It’s all to take credit and get votes, obviously.
Or taking credit and getting voted is all to help Israel like he did with the vaccines.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: AsherO on March 18, 2021, 09:15:35 PM
Or taking credit and getting voted is all to help Israel like he did with the vaccines.

I don’t disagree. He’s likely the only real leader in Israeli politics nowadays, and is a great face/speaker/advocate for the country while also getting things done. But he’s still a politician.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 20, 2021, 03:54:05 PM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 21, 2021, 04:59:53 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/gjdWLbR4/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 22, 2021, 08:10:15 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/Mp9YBR2P/1.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/mPFMfPrC)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 22, 2021, 08:10:31 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/Wp06nxcJ/3.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 22, 2021, 05:32:18 PM
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1199345
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 23, 2021, 07:01:45 AM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 23, 2021, 10:24:22 AM
Seems the Arabs are staying away this year, I wonder how that effects the election.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 23, 2021, 10:34:32 AM
Seems the Arabs are staying away this year, I wonder how that effects the election.
It helps give Bibbi 61 but also helps give the Bennet-Saar-Lapid trio 61. Ra'am likely won't pass after all
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 23, 2021, 10:43:49 AM
It helps give Bibbi 61 but also helps give the Bennet-Saar-Lapid trio 61. Ra'am likely won't pass after all

Bennet will join Bibi no question
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 23, 2021, 10:45:29 AM
Seems the Arabs are staying away this year, I wonder how that effects the election.

Back to old traditions. High(er) participation was an unusual phenomenon of the last few rounds. The Arab sector mostly doesn't feel engaged or as having many legitimate options to address their civic concerns.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 23, 2021, 11:16:11 AM
Someone trying to explain this to Americans  ::)

https://decisiondeskhq.com/an-introduction-to-israeli-politics-and-the-2021-israeli-election/
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on March 23, 2021, 11:24:45 AM
In whose biography is this?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: JlmBoi on March 23, 2021, 12:41:31 PM
Just voted in the airport. Thx @nafnaf12 (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210323/9a0b87bf3bd215c462bcb4d3311d3f82.jpg)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 23, 2021, 01:23:52 PM
@PlatinumGuy you were right on the US election whats your prediction here?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 23, 2021, 02:33:40 PM
@PlatinumGuy you were right on the US election whats your prediction here?
Bibbi won. He has 61+ with Bennet. Sa’ar & Gantz will sit with him if they pass, good chance Bennet stays out.

The left & Arabs were apathetic and didn’t turn out (unlike last elections where they had a figurehead polling neck to neck with Bibbi) at least 2 parties won’t pass, possibly 3 or 4.

I have a leaked CH13 exit poll that gives Bibbi 33 and the block 63, Camille Fuchs who is one of the top pollsters is saying the polls are showing the most decisive victory he’s ever seen in his career and the left can’t possibly have anything decisive since it’s a cholent who supports whom, the army turnout which tilts right is exceptionally high while general population turnout is very low (suggesting its the left that isn’t showing up), and the polls traditionally undercount the right & Likud so they are expected to do better than anticipated.

I’m popping the champagne already.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on March 23, 2021, 02:38:30 PM
Bibbi won.


I’m popping the champagne already.
I’m so confused!!
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 23, 2021, 02:47:24 PM
I’m so confused!!
I’m not beholden to any narrative. Netanyahu isn’t a paragon of virtue but he is one of the greatest leaders the Jewish people ever had.

There is no right and left in Israeli politics other than the absolute fringes, everybody agrees on a 2 state solution and the PA stonewalls everything.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on March 23, 2021, 02:54:40 PM

I just find it interesting that a hard core liberal would like Bibi
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 23, 2021, 02:55:57 PM

Here’s a great illustration of how people drop the hot air parties like Bennet and coalesce around the big parties in the moment of truth
I just find it interesting that a hard core liberal would like Bibi
Bibbi is a liberal...
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: AsherO on March 23, 2021, 03:30:51 PM
Bibbi won. He has 61+ with Bennet. Sa’ar & Gantz will sit with him if they pass, good chance Bennet stays out.

The left & Arabs were apathetic and didn’t turn out (unlike last elections where they had a figurehead polling neck to neck with Bibbi) at least 2 parties won’t pass, possibly 3 or 4.

I have a leaked CH13 exit poll that gives Bibbi 33 and the block 63, Camille Fuchs who is one of the top pollsters is saying the polls are showing the most decisive victory he’s ever seen in his career and the left can’t possibly have anything decisive since it’s a cholent who supports whom, the army turnout which tilts right is exceptionally high while general population turnout is very low (suggesting its the left that isn’t showing up), and the polls traditionally undercount the right & Likud so they are expected to do better than anticipated.

I’m popping the champagne already.

So finally no more elections in 2021? That's reason enough to pop champagne.

I’m not beholden to any narrative. Netanyahu isn’t a paragon of virtue but he is one of the greatest leaders the Jewish people ever had.

I can't think of anyone in Israeli politics who can fill his shoes.

everybody agrees on a 2 state solution and the PA stonewalls everything.

PA benefits most from the status quo (and being able to play the victim), that tap closes once they get a state. IMHO it's best for Israel as well, as long as terror is down bez"h.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: BP16 on March 23, 2021, 03:45:47 PM
I just find it interesting that a hard core liberal would like Bibi
Or like someone who is a Pro Trumper
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 23, 2021, 04:10:10 PM
Ra'am is out
Saar down to 6, wow.
Bennet has to go with Likud, doesn't he - assuming the results stand and they have 61
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 23, 2021, 04:15:48 PM
Ra'am is out
Saar down to 6, wow.
Bennet has to go with Likud, doesn't he - assuming the results stand and they have 61

It ain't over 'till it's over.

But the most astounding number to me in the exit polls is Blue & White? What's there to motivate anyone, of any political persuasion to vote B&W at this point?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 23, 2021, 04:16:27 PM
It ain't over 'till it's over.

But the most astounding number to me in the exit polls is Blue & White? What's there to motivate anyone, of any political persuasion to vote B&W at this point?
It's mindblowing how successful they were
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 23, 2021, 04:18:44 PM
Watching N12, the fail of their coalition building tool is hilarious (especially as it mirrors reality)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 23, 2021, 04:21:01 PM
Also, Gimmel's results are very disappointing
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 23, 2021, 04:22:26 PM
Ironic that it will be Ra'am to give Bibi the ability to build a coalition
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 23, 2021, 04:31:18 PM
Also, Gimmel's results are very disappointing

You expected anything else?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 23, 2021, 04:38:27 PM
You expected anything else?
7 or 8, not 6
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 23, 2021, 04:40:07 PM
Still too close for comfort. Exit polls were revised down for the right last time. Segal is also saying that it might be updated to 60-60.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: tavster on March 23, 2021, 04:43:47 PM
Still too close for comfort. Exit polls were revised down for the right last time. Segal is also saying that it might be updated to 60-60.
That's what I'm talking about.
Nothing like a few good weeks of negotiations before reaching the conclusion that we need 5th round of elections
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ver hut gazugt on March 23, 2021, 04:52:24 PM
7 or 8, not 6

I saw 7 in two exit polls
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 23, 2021, 05:14:54 PM
That's what I'm talking about.
Nothing like a few good weeks of negotiations before reaching the conclusion that we need 5th round of elections

Or as Segal is predicting, Bibi pulling back some of those that deserted him for Sa'ar (what in the world were they thinking? Can't people do basic arithmetic anymore?).
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 23, 2021, 06:04:12 PM
One of the best outcomes would be Ben-Gvir as an MK. Regardless of anything else that might or might not happen, it will be highly entertaining. The guy has talent!
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 23, 2021, 06:06:53 PM
Updated channel 12 right has 60
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ver hut gazugt on March 23, 2021, 06:07:41 PM
When do they start counting votes ?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ellemeno on March 23, 2021, 06:08:32 PM
One of the best outcomes would be Ben-Gvir as an MK. Regardless of anything else that might or might not happen, it will be highly entertaining. The guy has talent!
Lessons learned. Never give up!!
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: JlmBoi on March 23, 2021, 06:08:33 PM
For pure entertainment purposes I rate Oren Hazan much higher
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: UKinNYS on March 23, 2021, 06:15:35 PM
I’m popping the champagne already.
your in good company ;)
?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1374464968708354052%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2Fmobinsaud2Fstatus2F1374464968708354052widget%3DTweet
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: UKinNYS on March 23, 2021, 06:19:03 PM
otoh
?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1374464075824914442%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2Ffredman_a2Fstatus2F1374464075824914442widget%3DTweet
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 23, 2021, 06:25:42 PM
Will saar join the right now that there is no chance for him to be PM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: AsherO on March 23, 2021, 06:33:22 PM
It ain't over 'till it's over.

But the most astounding number to me in the exit polls is Blue & White? What's there to motivate anyone, of any political persuasion to vote B&W at this point?

Are they the ones who got Biden’s election consultants on board? Maybe they had dead people voting? :P
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 23, 2021, 07:06:13 PM
Now channel 13 has the right at 60 seats
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Toasted on March 23, 2021, 07:28:46 PM
Mods, please change thread title 2019-2022 (at least).
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 23, 2021, 07:30:32 PM
5th elections...
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Kobe Bryant on March 23, 2021, 07:51:05 PM
The never ending election
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on March 23, 2021, 07:58:03 PM
What was the agreement between bibi and gantz?
Is Gantz taking over until there’s a new coalition?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 23, 2021, 08:53:05 PM
For pure entertainment purposes I rate Oren Hazan much higher

Nah. That’s barely kids entertainment. Dudi Amsalem is good (unfortunately sitting Shiva now after the untimely passing of his brother, who I personally knew and was a wonderful person). But Ben-Gvir is a trial lawyer, that’s where people who excel at performances go.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 23, 2021, 08:53:41 PM
What was the agreement between bibi and gantz?
Is Gantz taking over until there’s a new coalition?
LOL. No
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on March 23, 2021, 11:43:00 PM
Any update?
When do they start posting actual results?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ellemeno on March 23, 2021, 11:48:12 PM
https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: yelped on March 24, 2021, 12:36:35 AM
https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults
What in the world are all those parties with a couple of hundreds of votes each and how did they end up with more than 2 votes each?  ;D
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Zevwolf on March 24, 2021, 12:40:21 AM
Any update?
When do they start posting actual results?
https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 24, 2021, 01:10:17 AM
Interesting.

https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=696
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: JlmBoi on March 24, 2021, 01:40:56 AM
Interesting.

https://votes24.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=696
Wow
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 24, 2021, 02:09:20 AM
If Raam stays below the threshold, there is pretty much guaranteed a Bibi government with Bennett.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 24, 2021, 03:03:36 AM
If Raam stays below the threshold, there is pretty much guaranteed a Bibi government with Bennett.

Seems like they will make it,
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 24, 2021, 06:32:55 AM
In a normal country, Bibi resigns this morning and allows for a right wing government under someone else from Likud, including Saar's party to be formed without him. 4 tries and you're out.
But in that case Bennett will want elections again, for his delusions of grandeur.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: JlmBoi on March 24, 2021, 06:35:47 AM
In a normal country, Bibi resigns this morning and allows for a right wing government under someone else from Likud, including Saar's party to be formed without him. 4 tries and you're out.
But in that case Bennett will want elections again, for his delusions of grandeur.
Resign now? Why on earth?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 24, 2021, 06:42:53 AM
Resign now? Why on earth?

He failed to win a majority?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: JlmBoi on March 24, 2021, 06:44:43 AM
He failed to win a majority?
Noone ever wins a majority here. There isn't a clear majority of pro or anti Bibi either way
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 24, 2021, 06:49:55 AM
My earlier confidence was clearly overblown but I still think Bibbi gets 61. There are around 400k special ballots, from which the army's tilt hard right, although it's hard to predict the others since its a new Covid phenomena.

Raam is for sure in with 155,000 votes already counted (the entrance threshold is ~135,000). That means if everybody observes their pre-election commitments, there will be 5th elections.

If Bibbi gets 61, he will likely take Saar and/or Gantz or at least part of their parties to avoid being beholden to Ben Gvir & Avi Maoz.

If Bibbi gets 60 or under, the immediate question is whom Rivlin nominates. There is no way Bennet will recommend Lapid, which means Lapid needs the Arab Joint List, Gantz, & Saar or Raam to have more recommendations than Bibbi. Gantz & Saar seem likely, the Joint List plausible, and Raam unlikely - Lapid is claiming they scheduled a meeting and Raam is vocally denying it.

If Lapid gets the mandate, it would be a herculean task to entice Bennet enough, likely necessitating giving him first place in a PM rotation. Assuming Lapid is willing to do it, as he's been saying he is (although it's probably against his personal political interests), it would still take an ideologically polar coalition to agree on a moratorium on any contentious changes to the status quo, and even if they're all willing to accept a freeze on their aggressive polar agendas, they still need to find something universal enough to coalesce around - replacing Bibbi won't hold them together for too long, and then they still need Raam to support them. It's a series of hoops they are extremely unlikely to jump through. There won't be any deserters from the Likud or Charedim.

There is always the possibility for a Lapid government without Bennet leaning on the Arab Joint List at least to abstain, but the Joint List won't rush to support it, and it won't last past the first rocket from Gaza so it would be political suicide on Saars behalf.

If Bibbi gets the mandate (Rivlin may able to give it to Lapid alone and then call for elections, depending a lot on if the Arabs recommend Lapid or not), there is no way he makes a narrow government with Raam. It will be a short lived government with Ben Gvir, Maoz, and Raam trying to share a bed, and Bibbi wouldn't risk it. The Arab street is especially resistant to Ben Gvir & even Smotrich. If they do 61 without Ben Gvir & Smotrich, it will only take 1 deserter from Bennet or the Likud to spoil the party. 

Though I do think if Bibbi gets the mandate, Saar will sit with him. It's his only pathway to remain employed. Bibbi will give them the house. Gantz is more likely to join personality wise, but he has much more to gain by stalling for 5th elections and possibly becoming the interim PM in November if 75 MKs can't agree to cancel him.

At the end of the day, Saar is the kingmaker. He can make Lapid PM even without Bennet, and he can make Bibbi PM with a guaranteed Bennet. The question is, what can anybody give him that will somehow make him relevant?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 24, 2021, 06:56:20 AM
In a normal country, Bibi resigns this morning and allows for a right wing government under someone else from Likud, including Saar's party to be formed without him. 4 tries and you're out.
But in that case Bennett will want elections again, for his delusions of grandeur.
I'm not sure I agree. Over 2m voters want Bibbi as PM. In a normal country, Saar, Gantz, and even Liberman stop the personal boycott and join a government whose policies they support.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 24, 2021, 07:41:23 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/3x6YCBRC/image.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/rDSBq55K)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: YitzyS on March 24, 2021, 07:47:25 AM
My earlier confidence was clearly overblown but
And thus was born two excellent Platinum Guy memes, each to be used as needed in any thread of DDF  ;D  :P


(https://i.postimg.cc/63SZYMvv/52xvot.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)


(https://i.postimg.cc/wv3JXC7z/52xw3b.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 24, 2021, 08:08:05 AM

Awesome
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 24, 2021, 08:11:07 AM
This quote, from Isaac Newton who lived from 1643 to 1727, provides comfort & distress. Doesn't matter which century you live in... apparently. 🤷🏻‍♂️

"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 24, 2021, 08:13:52 AM
My earlier confidence was clearly overblown but I still think Bibbi gets 61. There are around 400k special ballots, from which the army's tilt hard right, although it's hard to predict the others since its a new Covid phenomena.

Raam is for sure in with 155,000 votes already counted (the entrance threshold is ~135,000). That means if everybody observes their pre-election commitments, there will be 5th elections.

If Bibbi gets 61, he will likely take Saar and/or Gantz or at least part of their parties to avoid being beholden to Ben Gvir & Avi Maoz.

If Bibbi gets 60 or under, the immediate question is whom Rivlin nominates. There is no way Bennet will recommend Lapid, which means Lapid needs the Arab Joint List, Gantz, & Saar or Raam to have more recommendations than Bibbi. Gantz & Saar seem likely, the Joint List plausible, and Raam unlikely - Lapid is claiming they scheduled a meeting and Raam is vocally denying it.

If Lapid gets the mandate, it would be a herculean task to entice Bennet enough, likely necessitating giving him first place in a PM rotation. Assuming Lapid is willing to do it, as he's been saying he is (although it's probably against his personal political interests), it would still take an ideologically polar coalition to agree on a moratorium on any contentious changes to the status quo, and even if they're all willing to accept a freeze on their aggressive polar agendas, they still need to find something universal enough to coalesce around - replacing Bibbi won't hold them together for too long, and then they still need Raam to support them. It's a series of hoops they are extremely unlikely to jump through. There won't be any deserters from the Likud or Charedim.

There is always the possibility for a Lapid government without Bennet leaning on the Arab Joint List at least to abstain, but the Joint List won't rush to support it, and it won't last past the first rocket from Gaza so it would be political suicide on Saars behalf.

If Bibbi gets the mandate (Rivlin may able to give it to Lapid alone and then call for elections, depending a lot on if the Arabs recommend Lapid or not), there is no way he makes a narrow government with Raam. It will be a short lived government with Ben Gvir, Maoz, and Raam trying to share a bed, and Bibbi wouldn't risk it. The Arab street is especially resistant to Ben Gvir & even Smotrich. If they do 61 without Ben Gvir & Smotrich, it will only take 1 deserter from Bennet or the Likud to spoil the party. 

Though I do think if Bibbi gets the mandate, Saar will sit with him. It's his only pathway to remain employed. Bibbi will give them the house. Gantz is more likely to join personality wise, but he has much more to gain by stalling for 5th elections and possibly becoming the interim PM in November if 75 MKs can't agree to cancel him.

The double envelopes are long not only soldier votes. Not even the majority. They were pretty evenly split last time. Likeliest change at this point is Meretz gaining a seat at the expense of Raam.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 24, 2021, 08:14:31 AM
(https://i.postimg.cc/W47GDXTS/image.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 24, 2021, 08:23:45 AM
The double envelopes are long not only soldier votes. Not even the majority. They were pretty evenly split last time. Likeliest change at this point is Meretz gaining a seat at the expense of Raam.
Thats their prediction here https://elections24.dicta.org.il/, but I’d take anything with a grain of salt. These ballots aren’t anything like last year, there are much more of them because of Covid. 89k old age homes for example that got to vote on site for the first time.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 24, 2021, 10:35:29 AM
‏מנסור עבאס: ראש הממשלה התקשר אליי 30 פעמים, כולל בשלוש בבוקר.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 24, 2021, 10:39:38 AM
‏מנסור עבאס: ראש הממשלה התקשר אליי 30 פעמים, כולל בשלוש בבוקר.
will he join bibi?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 24, 2021, 11:26:49 AM
will he join bibi?
See above. He may be aligned with Bibbi somewhat but Bibbi isn’t stupid enough to form a narrow & fickle coalition hinging on Ben Gvir & Abbas together. If Abbas joins, it will be with Saar, Gantz, or Michaeli (in that order of likelihood).

Something to remember is that Ben Gvirs partner Avi Maoz was sent by Rabbi Tao who believes it’s his mission to stage a protest in the Kennset, and thus has no interest in compromising...

While the political participation of Arabs sounds great for democracy, every bit more accepted they become may Ch’v lead to increased intermarriage, and will hasten the inevitable point when Arabs in Gaza & the West Bank demand Israeli citizenship instead of their own state, which is by far the greatest threat to Israel as a Jewish country - much more than Iran.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 24, 2021, 11:36:47 AM
Invalid Tweet ID
The Trump playbook 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

ETA that was fast. Yair Netanyahu claiming election fraud, luckily Bibbi isn’t that crazy. Revised to this:
The whole elections Erev Pesach thing is turning out to be a big mistake. They haven’t updated the count since 12pm today. Originally they said the guy in charge of updating the data collapsed and went to take a nap, then the country erupted in uproar so they walked it back, but still no update.

Ra’am was suspiciously confident, claiming they counted 150,000 voters before the ballots closed, something that isn’t really possible 
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 24, 2021, 12:34:46 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
The Trump playbook 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

ETA that was fast. Yair Netanyahu claiming election fraud, luckily Bibbi isn’t that crazy. Revised to this:
The whole elections Erev Pesach thing is turning out to be a big mistake. They haven’t updated the count since 12pm today. Originally they said the guy in charge of updating the data collapsed and went to take a nap, then the country erupted in uproar so they walked it back, but still no update.

Ra’am was suspiciously confident, claiming they counted 150,000 voters before the ballots closed, something that isn’t really possible 

It's totally possible. They get counted way before they get posted online. Parties get the numbers from their strongholds by their monitors.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 24, 2021, 12:45:48 PM
400-450k 'Special' 'Double' ballots remain to be counted at the central depository in the Kennset, beginning at 11pm tonight. They come from:


Covid - quarantined people, quarantine hotels, etc
Prisoners
Hospitals and staff
LTC and staff
Diplomats abroad (only a few thousand)
Military - exceptionally high turnout of 77% which tilts right. Hopefully it gives both Bennet (missing 14k) and the Likud/Smotrich a seat and doesn't go to Liberman.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 24, 2021, 12:59:32 PM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Happyguy on March 24, 2021, 06:48:55 PM
Quote

Israel''s election results: Guide to the perplexed

Likud 30 seats

Yesh Atid 18 seats

Shas 9 seats

Blue-and-white 8 seats

Yamina 7 seats

Labour 7 seats

United Torah Judaism 7 seats

Religious Zionism 6 seats

Joint Arab List 6 seats

Yisra’el Beyteinu 6 seats

New Hope 6 seats

Meretz 5 seats

Ra’am (United Arab List) 5 seats

Speaking on Israel Radio’s Reshet Bet a few minutes after 11:00 on Wednesday morning, the Director-General of the Central Elections Committee, Orli Adess, anticipated that the final count will be published on Friday morning. Changes are possible until then, though major changes are unlikely.

The next step will be that each new Member of Knesset will come to President Reuven “Ruby” Rivlin to recommend a party leader as his or her choice for Prime Minister.


They can recommend anyone they want, though in practice each MK will recommend either incumbent Binyamin Netanyahu (leader of Likud), or Yair Lapid (leader of Yesh Atid), maybe Benny Gantz (leader of Blue-and-White), or not recommend anyone.

Within 7 days after the final votes have been counted, President Rivlin will then charge whoever gets the most recommendations with the task of putting together a coalition, which must contain more than half the Knesset, meaning 61 MK’s or more.

He will have 30 days to put a coalition together, and can get a 15-day extension if he needs it. If he fails, he can either get another extension (if the President agrees), or throw the task to the other one, or go back to the country and call for another round of elections.

So who can put together a coalition? Binyamin Netanyahu, Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, or anyone else?

To understand this challenge, think of your dining-room table as the Knesset. It has 120 seats, and you are hosting the Seder Night.

Netanyahu, leader of Likud, and Lapid, leader of Yesh Atid, are the two grandfathers: both long to be invited, but only on condition that they lead the Seder, choose the menu, make Kiddush, and so forth.

Yisrael Beyteinu are cousins from one side of the family, Labour and Meretz are cousins from the other side of the family. These are the cousins who refuse to sit at the same table with each other under any circumstances. Each say about the other: “We’re broiges (Yiddish: not on speaking terms) with them, if they come then we’re not coming!”

Shas and United Torah Judaism are the slightly irascible cousins who want to come: they’ll complain about the company (too loud, too secular, too many of them), the seats (too hard, too soft), the food (too spicy, not spicy enough), the air-conditioner (too hot, too cold), and about just about everything else as well. They don’t really care who runs the Seder, they’ll come anyway and try to take over.

However Yisra’el Beyteinu is broiges with Shas. Not so much that they refuse to sit at the same table, but they certainly won’t sit next to them, so there has to be someone else sitting between them.

Another complication is that Avigdor Lieberman and Yisra’el Beyteinu will only come if they’re allowed to bring their ham sandwiches, but UTJ will only come if the entire celebration is strictly kosher and kosher-for-Pesach.

Shas, on the other hand, will come as long as they can have kosher food. They don’t particularly care if anyone else eats kosher or treif, kosher-for-Pesach or chametz, but it’s important for them that they (and their friends) have the option for kosher food.

That’s another reason that Yisrael Beyteinu and Shas can’t sit next to each other, but they can sit at the same table.

Religious Zionism are the religious cousins who will insist that the Seder Night goes ahead according to all its rules and customs. They don’t necessarily want to force anyone else to participate, but they do want to ensure that everyone has the option of participating and understanding what it’s all about.

Hew Hope are the yuppie educated professional cousins from one side of the family, Blue-and-White are the yuppie educated professional cousins from the other side of the family.

Both of them are firmly convinced that if only they lead, then the Seder Service will be the best ever. But neither are willing to let the other one get a word in edgeways.

They’ll both explain how to guarantee that everyone will have enough to eat and how to keep everyone happy, but because they only talk to themselves, no one else will listen to a word they’re saying, except to nod politely every now and then.

They’ll both keep resolutely out of any squabbles over which grandfather should lead the Seder Service, they’re far too polite and well-mannered to have any influence, they’ll agree with whoever is speaking at any given moment and smile politely at everyone, without participating demonstratively in the Seder Service,

But they’ll still expect everyone to defer to them, and throw the occasional hissy-fit when they feel ignored.

Yamina are the in-laws who came together in the same car, but as soon as they got out of the car, even before they entered the house, they began squabbling over whose fault everything is and who ought to put it right. They’ll make a show of getting along with everyone, but actually they need one of the grandfathers to force them to make up.

And neither of the grandfathers really has the necessary time or patience to do it.

Then there’s the Joint Arab List: They claim the house is theirs, they want you to clear out. They long to be invited – not because they want to come, they don’t want anything to do with any Seder Night, except maybe to blow it up – but they long to be invited just so they can demonstratively refuse.

Ra’am and the Joint Arab List used to be besties, until they recently had a major falling-out. No one was entirely sure what they fought about, but it could be that Ra'am does not want to blow up the Seder table, because the food looks good and it wants its share.

They haven’t been talking to each other ever since. And both grandfathers seem to think that they can coax Ra'am to come back to the table and behave nicely, if he just gives them enough candy.

Then there’s Labour: the old, doddering uncles who can hardly stand upright anymore, and who embarrass everyone with their outdated and slightly racist ideas. They constantly bore everyone with their stories of “when I was young”, stories of what they did during the war – but the last time any of them actually did anything worth talking about was before most people today were born. Their young new leader is waiting outside - she doesn't believe in families, much less family gatherings.

And finally Meretz, whom almost no one really wanted to invite. Every time they were at family gatherings in the past they took control, and then wrecked the house, making such a mess that it took the rest of us years to clean up after them.

The problem is that the caterers have already stipulated that they will only cater the Seder Night for a minimum of 61 guests. So if only 60 or fewer agree to sit at the same table together, you’ll have to write a new guest-list and invite them back in another 6 months or so – maybe in time for Rosh Hashanah.

And if that happens, then we’ll call the next round of elections, just as we did last time, and the time before that, and the time before that. And we can but hope that next time will yield a different guest-list. Or maybe – just maybe – that some of the more petulant relatives will have grown up by then.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/299153
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 10:00:02 AM
I was wrong. Bibbi got 59, which isn’t a win. It’s still hard to see any scenario where Bibbi doesn’t remain PM, either with a new coalition (Saar/Gantz/Michaeli reneging) or on an interim basis until the next round.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Proisrael on March 25, 2021, 10:57:54 AM
I was wrong. Bibbi got 59, which isn’t a win. It’s still hard to see any scenario where Bibbi doesn’t remain PM, either with a new coalition (Saar/Gantz/Michaeli reneging) or on an interim basis until the next round.

At what point do we say enough with all these parties and just narrow it down to 2? How many elections can the country go through and what will ever make the difference?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 11:00:15 AM
2600 votes are giving the JAL the 7th and 61st seat.

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on March 25, 2021, 11:05:55 AM
At what point do we say enough with all these parties and just narrow it down to 2? How many elections can the country go through and what will ever make the difference?
Who’s fault is it?
Is it clear that it’s always Lieberman, or is it also Saar this time?
Seems like most of the country wants a right wing government, but there are too many egos involved
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on March 25, 2021, 11:11:25 AM
Who’s fault is it?
Is it clear that it’s always Lieberman, or is it also Saar this time?
Seems like most of the country wants a right wing government, but there are too many egos involved
הקנאה והתאוה והכבוד מוציאין את האדם מן העולם
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Dan on March 25, 2021, 11:21:55 AM
At what point do we say enough with all these parties and just narrow it down to 2? How many elections can the country go through and what will ever make the difference?
Direct voting for PM. Easy solution.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 25, 2021, 11:30:01 AM
Direct voting for PM. Easy solution.

It has been tried in the past and was abandoned. Imagine the US where Congress would constantly oppose the president.

I am thinking that two rounds might be a workable solution, where round 2 would include only parties that got at least enough for 1 seat but would have a high threshold (maybe as high as 10% or 15%) to actually become MKs, this might need to be combined with a modification to the way laws are passed. No simple solution.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Jellybelly on March 25, 2021, 11:35:50 AM
Who are the winners and who are the losers when they keep on going back to elections?
I’d venture to say that Bibi likes it like this
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 25, 2021, 11:41:09 AM
The biggest problem with changing the rules is you need a majority to approve said rule change. And each side will only support the rule change that will favor them
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 25, 2021, 11:41:27 AM
Who are the winners and who are the losers when they keep on going back to elections?
I’d venture to say that Bibi likes it like this
The losers are the Israeli citizens
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 12:45:21 PM
The losers are the Israeli citizens
So far most things in Israel are working better during the never ending elections cycle. The media likes to kvetch but it's actually pretty good. Lack of budget is less money for special interests. Bibbi on his knees is peace deals and vaccines. Money spent on elections goes to unemployed citizens and stimulates the economy.

I would say the winners are the Israeli citizens.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 12:46:25 PM
Direct voting for PM. Easy solution.
Every solution boils down to Bibbi yes or no, and the same stalemate. Bibbi would win direct elections by a landslide so the left will never agree to it.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 01:05:12 PM
A bit extreme, but my money is on Bibbi+Michaeli government. Everybody else is the anti-Bibbi camp stands for nothing and therefore has nothing to gain so Bibbi has nothing to offer them and win them over. Last time he gave Gantz a second place rotation in PM, but nobody will fall for that again. Saar will never win any seats again, Gantz & Liberman put removing Bibbi as their sole agenda, the only thing Lapid stands for other than removing Bibbi is anti-religion and Bibbi can't go there, and Meretz is way too far left for anybody else to join (supports investigating Israel in The Hague).

Merav Michaeli on the other hand charsimatically revived the labor party from the ashes with an ideological liberal agenda focusing mostly on feminist rights, and she aspires to replace Lapid as the leader of left wing public. The labor party also owns very valuable income-producing real estate, so she is the least beholden to capricious anti-Bibbi donors.  Bibbi can make her foreign minister putting her in the constant limelight, give her some progressive wins like specialized sexual offense courts that she campaigned for, and the opportunity to attempt to end the Arab-Israeli conflict by including an Arab party like Raam (UAL) in the government coalition (in return for accepting Israel as a Jewish country and denouncing terror) and more normalization in the Middle East. She would stand a realistic chance of growing her base to 10+ seats rom the perch of a dominant and proven leader, and that's enough to form a block with Lapid with her being #1 and a serious candidate for PM.

It also gives Bibbi the eternal centrist the excuse he always loves to avoid right wing moves like annexation and the international acclaim of leading a true unity government that represents the full spectrum of Israeli politics, setting aside Yes Bibbi/No Bibbi.

In his victory speech below, Bibbi uncharacteristically imitated Michaeli and constantly used the feminine pronouns, which made me think he's angling there. Yes, Bibbi tried taking the Labor before and Michaeli blocked it, but that was when she wasn't #1 and didn't have what to gain.


Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 01:11:22 PM
הקנאה והתאוה והכבוד מוציאין את האדם מן העולם
Somebody once asked R Ahron Leib Steinman which shul he should lain in -  one that is less prestigious but pays better, or one that is more 'Chashuv' but pays less? He laughed and said he appreciated that someone is asking directly what most questions ultimately boil down to. Which is better, money or Kavod?

For people like Gantz and Saar, joining Bibbi is money and employment but boycotting Bibbi is Kavod and media embrace. IMHO Michaeli is the one who can potentially get both in the long run by sitting with Bibbi.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Moshe123 on March 25, 2021, 01:19:00 PM
Best option for the right is Bennet voting to ban Netanyahu from being able to form a government and then offer the Likud to form a rightist government with Saar and without Ben Gvir.
Problem is that Bennett doesn't have the tactical smarts.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 01:34:16 PM
Best option for the right is Bennet voting to ban Netanyahu from being able to form a government and then offer the Likud to form a rightist government with Saar and without Ben Gvir.
Problem is that Bennett doesn't have the tactical smarts.
It's a tactical fallacy. They can't ban Bibbi from forming a government in this election (supreme court will strike it down), and if they ban him now he will win in a landslide and revoke the law after he wins. It's just a talking point for trolls like Liberman.

The Likud also won't desert Bibbi, they are more powerful in a stalemate with him than without him. If they get rid of him the government will collapse shortly anyways and they'll shrink in the elections. In the meantime they're controlling massive temporary budgets which are much more flexible.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Dan on March 25, 2021, 01:52:30 PM
The biggest problem with changing the rules is you need a majority to approve said rule change. And each side will only support the rule change that will favor them
How did it get changed to PM voting and away from PM voting in the past?
What was the impetus to go each direction?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 01:55:18 PM
How did it get changed to PM voting and away from PM voting in the past?
What was the impetus to go each direction?
IINM it changed in 2001 because in direct elections the PM/Cabinet couldn't accomplish anything without having a majority in the Kennset. The issue now isn't the mechanism but the actual tie. Nobody will promote a solution that isn't clear which way it will decide it.

Every solution boils down to Bibbi yes or no, and the same stalemate. Bibbi would win direct elections by a landslide so the left will never agree to it.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Dan on March 25, 2021, 01:57:29 PM
IINM it changed in 2001 because in direct elections the PM/Cabinet couldn't accomplish anything without having a majority in the Kennset. The issue now isn't the mechanism but the actual tie. Nobody will promote a solution that isn't clear which way it will decide it.
Seems like Likud/center-right ideology would have more than 60 seats if not for people opposing Bibi because he's Bibi.
Take that off the negotiating table and they'll support a center-right ideology...
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 02:03:11 PM
Seems like Likud/center-right ideology would have more than 60 seats if not for people opposing Bibi because he's Bibi.
Take that off the negotiating table and they'll support a center-right ideology...
Right, but to take it off the table means either yes Bibbi or no Bibbi and there's a stalemate around that. There is noting tangible the center-right wants to accomplish that they can't do now and transcends Bibbi. IMHO, Michaeli has an agenda that can potentially trump ousting Bibbi, but I don't know if she has the courage.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on March 25, 2021, 02:11:27 PM
Right, but to take it off the table means either yes Bibbi or no Bibbi and there's a stalemate around that. There is noting tangible the center-right wants to accomplish that they can't do now and transcends Bibbi. IMHO, Michaeli has an agenda that can potentially trump ousting Bibbi, but I don't know if she has the courage.

Sort of. There are those who vote for smaller parties but would vote for Bibbi in a direct election too.

One of the issues at the time was that the chareid parties were against having people place a vote for Bibbi personally but rather he remain a tool of theirs. Many were upset at how Bibi became the big רשכבה"ג in that election similar to what happened with Trump here but much more so.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 02:16:14 PM
Sort of. There are those who vote for smaller parties but would vote for Bibbi in a direct election too.
I meant, any way of changing the system to resolve the lumberjack is either pro Bibbi, anti Bibbi, or a safek, and ends up in the same stalemate.

To make it simple, you need 51% to govern in Israel, but the Arabs are 10-15% and it's practically impossible to form a government with them. That leaves the Pro-Bibbi and Anti-Bibbi camps each with 40 to 50%, enough seats to block the other but not enough to oust the other. Somebody needs to renege on their commitment.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on March 25, 2021, 02:18:51 PM
I meant, any way of changing the system to resolve the lumberjack is either pro Bibbi, anti Bibbi, or a safek, and ends up in the same stalemate.

To make it simple, you need 51% to govern in Israel, but the Arabs are 10-15% and it's practically impossible to form a government with them. That leaves the Pro-Bibbi and Anti-Bibbi camps each with 40 to 50%, enough seats to block the other but not enough to oust the other. Somebody needs to renege on their commitment.
Which is why the American system would be mauch more stable and they can just vote on each law policy by policy.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 25, 2021, 02:27:00 PM
Which is why the American system would be mauch more stable and they can just vote on each law policy by policy.
The American system takes power away from the minorities. It would be a disaster for the frum. It also takes power away from politicians and turns them into mere lawmakers, so they aren't motivated to do to themselves. America had to revolt against the parliamentary system and start afresh with the separation of powers.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: aygart on March 25, 2021, 02:30:42 PM
The American system takes power away from the minorities. It would be a disaster for the frum. It also takes power away from politicians and turns them into mere lawmakers, so they aren't motivated to do to themselves. America had to revolt against the parliamentary system and start afresh with the separation of powers.
correct. Part of the reason the chareidi parties were against such a system.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Kobe Bryant on March 25, 2021, 05:17:48 PM
Direct voting for PM. Easy solution.
IIRC that is how BiBi won his first time. But the prime minister would still need a coalition to govern.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 25, 2021, 05:33:29 PM
Sa’ar seems to be speeding straight into a concrete wall with his eyes wide open.

השנאה והתאוה והכבוד מוציאים את האדם מן העולם.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Dan on March 25, 2021, 05:47:37 PM
IIRC that is how BiBi won his first time. But the prime minister would still need a coalition to govern.
Seems like Likud/center-right ideology would have more than 60 seats if not for people opposing Bibi because he's Bibi.
Take that off the negotiating table and they'll support a center-right ideology...
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 25, 2021, 07:45:30 PM
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 25, 2021, 07:46:09 PM
Seems like Likud/center-right ideology would have more than 60 seats if not for people opposing Bibi because he's Bibi.
Take that off the negotiating table and they'll support a center-right ideology...

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: ExGingi on March 25, 2021, 07:53:42 PM
Talking about the thread title.

Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: zh cohen on March 26, 2021, 02:18:44 AM
Right, but to take it off the table means either yes Bibbi or no Bibbi and there's a stalemate around that.

Would Bibi take the job of President (with a pardon)?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 26, 2021, 02:39:35 AM
There’s a great visualization of geographic breakdown in this tweet


Would Bibi take the job of President (with a pardon)?
President confers immunity so he wouldn’t even need a pardon, but he’s repeatedly declined it. The stalemate isn’t a problem for him. He has big aspirations and a viable pathway to accomplish them.

UAL already announced they won’t be part of the anti-Bibbi bloc to facilitate replacing the Kennset Chairman (a necessary step in any kind of legislation to remove Bibbi), suggesting they are aligned with Bibbi much more than Lapid, and in reality Bibbi has more of a majority than the bloc against him.
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 28, 2021, 04:00:31 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Exk5Vo_WQAcBd-S?format=jpg&name=large)
https://www.facebook.com/harel.cain/posts/10160846975582891
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Kobe Bryant on March 29, 2021, 09:23:58 PM
 
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Ergel on March 30, 2021, 05:16:25 PM
Is it possible that Bennet has the strongest hand right now? What is the smallest political party that has had the premiership?
Title: Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
Post by: Kobe Bryant on March 30, 2021, 08:07:47 PM