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DansDeals Forum => Just Shmooze => Topic started by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Title: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 05:19:44 AM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 10, 2019, 05:56:21 AM
who do you think is going to win?!!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 06:26:05 AM
who do you think is going to win?!!

Right wing parties should pull it out at the end but BLue and white might end up with more seats (as one party)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: helpyouamdme on March 10, 2019, 10:56:51 AM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
So your mind get influence from what politicians are telling and writing?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 11:52:57 AM
So your mind get influence from what politicians are telling and writing?

I get influenced by what he has done for his beliefs....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on March 10, 2019, 11:49:41 PM
Don't you think it's a bit unfair to call it the Kahana parties? This was a deal that no body wanted and it was a choice between this or extinction. There will be more communists (Hadash) than Kahanist.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on March 10, 2019, 11:51:40 PM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
serious question, what is his platform besides legalized weed? I've only heard his give vague ideas about more freedom.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on March 11, 2019, 12:21:24 AM
serious question, what is his platform besides legalized weed?

Hey, is עלה ירוק still around? That was their platform for years
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 11, 2019, 07:07:48 AM
serious question, what is his platform besides legalized weed? I've only heard his give vague ideas about more freedom.

Here is his link: https://zehut.org.il/zehut-platform/?lang=en

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Happyguy on March 11, 2019, 07:51:17 AM
I wonder if we have any Meretz supporters here ;) ;) ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 11, 2019, 12:01:42 PM
Here is his link: https://zehut.org.il/zehut-platform/?lang=en
https://zehut.org.il/zehut-knesset-list/?lang=en Picture #18 seems to illustrate well this party.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on March 11, 2019, 11:44:50 PM
https://zehut.org.il/education-plan/?lang=en
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on March 11, 2019, 11:47:33 PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 12, 2019, 06:38:20 AM


Little I disagree with...though the question is reality...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on March 12, 2019, 12:43:40 PM
I'm not an Israeli so my opinion doesn't matter, but he won't enter a coalition unless they agree to legalize weed??
I hope he doesn't pass the minimum threshold.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 12, 2019, 02:30:05 PM
I'm not an Israeli so my opinion doesn't matter, but he won't enter a coalition unless they agree to legalize weed??
I hope he doesn't pass the minimum threshold.

False....besides Bibi today said he is going to start looking into legalizing weed as well.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: efflpetzel on March 13, 2019, 02:44:12 PM
False....besides Bibi today said he is going to start looking into legalizing weed as well.
Yup he'll do or say anything that'll get him another vote & apologize after the election to whoever was offended.

I dont know what anyone sees in him anymore, he reminds me of Ehud Barak, who also didnt know when to quit until the writing was all over the wall.

Just wait until Trump makes him give back land for his 'peace plan
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 13, 2019, 04:04:40 PM
I dont know what anyone sees in him anymore, he reminds me of Ehud Barak, who also didnt know when to quit until the writing was all over the wall.
Your "analysis" seems extremely shallow.

Not one of the clowns that are vying to replace him (or have done so in the last decade) comes close to his abilities in any area that makes a difference. And the vast majority of the electorate is aware of this.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: hocker on March 13, 2019, 04:05:16 PM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
Besides voting for a party you're also voting for it's members and for sure for it's leader.

Feiglin is serious weirdo for the lack of a better word. He's impossible to work with and therefore it will be impossible to keep a coalition going with him.
His #2 Cham Amsalem isn't much better. They're both extremely difficult and complicated individuals, the type that no one wants them in their shul....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 13, 2019, 04:09:02 PM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.

The seemingly צד השווה of Bennet and Feiglin/Zehut is that they rely solely on their own judgment, rather than submitting to a Halachic authority. (which is similar to the underlying problem of Zionism which is based on כוחי ועוצם ידי, but that's a separate issue).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Happyguy on March 13, 2019, 04:30:49 PM
The seemingly צד השווה of Bennet and Feiglin/Zehut is that they rely solely on their own judgment, rather than submitting to a Halachic authority. (which is similar to the underlying problem of Zionism which is based on כוחי ועוצם ידי, but that's a separate issue).

And Bibi does? :o
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 13, 2019, 04:42:56 PM
And Bibi does? :o

No. Which is why Torah observant Jews shouldn't be voting for him, but due to his qualifications, the parties that do submit to Halachic authorities should support him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: efflpetzel on March 13, 2019, 08:36:23 PM


but due to his qualifications, the parties that do submit to Halachic authorities should support him.
LOL his qualification is that he has longevity, which is an absurd reason to back him,
In fact the only reason people vote for him the pathetic reason they there's no one better. Basically fear of the unknown is why people vote for him, again a recipe for disaster because one day it'll be more convenient to sell out the Left/charedim & he'll have no problem in doing so.

The man has no spine all he's interested is staying in power.

People forget that he was the one that gave back a tremendous amount of land at
the Wye Accords

Do you really see him saying no to Trump if the deal he presents is bad.
I don't.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Happyguy on March 16, 2019, 03:06:09 PM
No. Which is why Torah observant Jews shouldn't be voting for him, but due to his qualifications, the parties that do submit to Halachic authorities should support him.

Should we have also supported David Ben-Gurion due to his qualifications?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 11:21:28 AM
Should we have also supported David Ben-Gurion due to his qualifications?
IDK. Wasn't around in his time.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 11:21:43 AM
https://youtu.be/52TJS8yj_20
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 12:40:30 PM
If you can read Hebrew, then read http://www.news1.co.il/Archive/003-D-133146-00.html which will shed some light on the types of accusations fielded and the facts behind them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 06:03:57 PM
Very interesting interview (in Hebrew) with Caroline Glick. https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/122929/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Denverite on March 20, 2019, 12:33:09 AM
What a great ad! If you don’t want to watch the video (or your filter blocks it) the article has a transcript. Don’t have to support the party but just a great political ad:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/44847/israeli-justice-minister-hank-berrien
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 25, 2019, 12:09:33 PM
I dont know what anyone sees in him anymore, he reminds me of Ehud Barak, who also didnt know when to quit until the writing was all over the wall.

https://www.maariv.co.il/journalists/opinions/Article-690718

Can't say I agree with everything this guy writes, but the main point is in the last few paragraphs, which IMNSHO, are indisputable (except for the very last one, which goes into predictions that I would rather avoid, as there's a lot that doesn't even depend on the Israeli leader himself).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 02, 2019, 02:27:12 PM
LOL his qualification is that he has longevity, which is an absurd reason to back him,
In fact the only reason people vote for him the pathetic reason they there's no one better. Basically fear of the unknown is why people vote for him, again a recipe for disaster because one day it'll be more convenient to sell out the Left/charedim & he'll have no problem in doing so.

The man has no spine all he's interested is staying in power.

People forget that he was the one that gave back a tremendous amount of land at
the Wye Accords

Do you really see him saying no to Trump if the deal he presents is bad.
I don't.

Check out the video on YouTube.com Never saw such comments before.


Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 11:28:39 AM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 11:38:55 AM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.

I have no clue what will happen on a national level, though I do think Bibi will remain Prime Minister, the only question is at what cost and how hard will he have to work to piece together a coalition.

What intrigues me the most and where I am willing to make a guess, knowing that I will probably be wrong, is how the vote in Kfar Chabad will split up. For that I guess we will see 55%-65% Aguda, 30%-40% Ichud Yemin, 3%-7% Shas, 1%-4% Zehut.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 12:01:45 PM
I have no clue what will happen on a national level, though I do think Bibi will remain Prime Minister, the only question is at what cost and how hard will he have to work to piece together a coalition.

What intrigues me the most and where I am willing to make a guess, knowing that I will probably be wrong, is how the vote in Kfar Chabad will split up. For that I guess we will see 55%-65% Aguda, 30%-40% Ichud Yemin, 3%-7% Shas, 1%-4% Zehut.

Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 12:02:47 PM
Interesting tweet from Bibi -
From earlier this morning in the US (about 12 noon in Israel). Bibi went to the beach to convince people to go vote, that he's losing to Lapid and Gantz.

Even if Bibi gets the lower end of polls at 25-26, and Gantz gets 30+ - can Gantz really get a coalition together? and with whom?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 12:55:45 PM
Realistic analysis:

https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/130313/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 12:57:38 PM
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

What do you know about Kfar Chabad that makes you think so?

IMHO those that will vote for Zehut in Kfar Chabad would mostly be OTD (or rebellious but not considered OTD) youngsters, and a handful of others.

I might be wrong, and I don't claim to have a crystal ball, or to even be able to guess things on a national level. But I do get some wind of what goes on within Kfar Chabad where I have family and friends.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 12:59:40 PM
What do you know about Kfar Chabad that makes you think so?

I might be wrong, and I don't claim to have a crystal ball, or to even be able to guess things on a national level. But I do get some wind of what goes on within Kfar Chabad where I have family and friends.

Sorry, I meant in the general elections...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 01:03:09 PM
Sorry, I meant in the general elections...
I sincerely hope they get a lot less than expected based on polls, though once a party is in, then IINM they get at least 3 MK's, which in this case would include the highly problematic Amsalem.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 01:06:51 PM
Realistic analysis:

https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/130313/

Thanks - it looks like 'Gevalt' is the theme of the day - https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/129735/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 01:09:17 PM
Thanks - it looks like 'Gevalt' is the theme of the day - https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/129735/


;D

Quote
19:00 – מה זה בכלל געוואלד? זמן טוב לברר.

קודם כל, בעברית אפשר לכתוב "גוואלד", או כמו ביידיש – געוואלד. בשום אופן לא "גוועלד" או צורה אחרת שבה העי"ן נמצאת אחרי הו"וים.
המילה מקורה ביידיש, ואליה היא הגיעה מהגרמנית: המילה Gewalt פירושה "כוח", "אלימות", "שליטה ו"סמכות", וכך בצירופים כמו:
Naturgewalt – כוח טבע
Hไusliche Gewalt – אלימות ביתית (דהיינו, בין בני זוג, ובדרך כלל מה שמכונה בעברית אלימות נגד נשים)
Staatsgewalt – סמכות המדינה, שליטת המדינה
אז איך הגענו מ"כוח" ל"געוואלד" שמשמעותו קריאה לעזרה? כמו דברים אחרים ביהדות, דרך אלוהים. ככל הנראה, יהודים דוברי יידיש נהגו לקרוא לכוח עליון, או ביקשו כוח מהאל, בעת צרה. הם זעקו "אוי, געוואלד", שפירושו מעין "תן לי כוח", וכשנשכחה המשמעות המקורית של המילה – נותרה רק המשמעות המשנית, של קריאה לעזרה ולהצלה.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on April 09, 2019, 01:19:00 PM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.
I don't think so. It might be tight. I believe Bibi will pull it off.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on April 09, 2019, 01:21:07 PM
 When can we expect to see results? Where is the best place to watch live results come in?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 01:25:34 PM
When can we expect to see results? Where is the best place to watch live results come in?

Polls close at 10PM (3PM EST) results should start trickling in right away but by midnight they usually have an idea and by Israel morning time it usually is official. I24 news is probably best (you need to make an account with a CC)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 01:44:58 PM
I don't think so. It might be tight. I believe Bibi will pull it off.

I think Bibi will lose to Gantz in seats, but is more likely to pull of the coalition - the golden question is - who are his bedfellows?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 01:55:49 PM
I think Bibi will lose to Gantz in seats, but is more likely to pull of the coalition - the golden question is - who are his bedfellows?

That is almost a guarantee the only question we need to ask is if Bibi goes into bed with Gantz to make a coalition...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 01:57:34 PM
This is an interesting Analysis - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-election-threshold-could-determine-next-prime-minister-1001281549

Here is what I am not clear on - let's say 4 parties get 2.5% each but fail to clear 3.25. That's about 10% of the vote, or 12 seats worth. How do those twelve get allocated - do they just ignore the 10% as if they didn't vote, and then split it among the other 90% proportionally (i.e. if Bibi gets 25% of the total vote, he should get 30 seats, but now his 25/100% = 27.7/90% he gets 33?)



 

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 02:03:11 PM
This is an interesting Analysis - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-election-threshold-could-determine-next-prime-minister-1001281549

Here is what I am not clear on - let's say 4 parties get 2.5% each but fail to clear 3.25. That's about 10% of the vote, or 12 seats worth. How do those twelve get allocated - do they just ignore the 10% as if they didn't vote, and then split it among the other 90% proportionally (i.e. if Bibi gets 25% of the total vote, he should get 30 seats, but now his 25/100% = 27.7/90% he gets 33?)

You are correct in your understanding, which is why people say not to vote for parties close to the threshold, as those votes might just end up being wasted. This is where Israeli electoral math comes into play.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 02:17:28 PM
IMHO the biggest surprise of this election is how fast Gantz learned and transformed himself.

Compare his first speech, where any animation was obviously difficult for him and scripted, to how animated he seems to be now when he talks.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 02:29:06 PM
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/politics/1554720218-analysis-low-arab-voter-turnout-won-t-be-good-news-for-anybody

https://youtu.be/TtMFjKYZ6bA
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 02:40:53 PM
Hashem Yerachim!

Report:Preliminary count of samples brings defeat to the right-wing
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 03:09:02 PM
Channel 11 saying Netanyahu has 64 seat potential coalition. (That's assuming Bennet is out).

(https://i.imgur.com/HFja1mN.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/MxI5v7y.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/Uc7fSPX.png)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 03:31:11 PM
Will we see a repeat of what we saw in the 2016 US elections?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 03:44:10 PM
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

Based on exit polls, will we see someone joining @ChaimMoskowitz for a feast of Crow?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gingyguy on April 09, 2019, 03:55:14 PM
Based on exit polls, will we see someone joining @ChaimMoskowitz for a feast of Crow?
so that's where he is!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:02:29 PM
Also to be noted that nothing is final until the votes of the soldiers are counted, so we are days away from final results, especially with parties very close, and on either side of the minimum threshold.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:28:10 PM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.

Here's my prediction - Nir Barkat is being groomed to take Netanyahu's place after Netanyahu retires.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ~King Lake~ on April 09, 2019, 04:31:13 PM
Gantz is Prime minister until 1 am
lapid until 5 am
and bibi is from the morning for 4 years
 ;) ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on April 09, 2019, 04:43:18 PM
Hashem Yerachim!

Report:Preliminary count of samples brings defeat to the right-wing
Reminds me of the 2016 exit polls.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:47:55 PM
Reminds me of the 2016 exit polls.

Though in the US, Clinton ended up not speaking. Whereas the Israelis already had Peres once crowned by the exit polls as the next PM, hold a victory speech, only to discover that he was unable to form a coalition government.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:52:00 PM
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

Someone seems to have egg on his face and is signaling desperation.

https://www.makorrishon.co.il/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/%D7%A1%D7%A8%D7%98%D7%95%D7%9F-%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%99%D7%92%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%9F-1.mp4?_=11
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:59:23 PM
https://players.brightcove.net/665003303001/4k5gFJHRe_default/index.html?videoId=6024306657001

Important point at 4:50
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 05:20:49 PM
As of now, here's a snippet of real results out of 29,403 valid votes counted:  ;D

נ נח - הרשימה הממלכתית - תרימו את הראש   ףץ   0.01%   4
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 05:39:54 PM
I have no clue what will happen on a national level, though I do think Bibi will remain Prime Minister, the only question is at what cost and how hard will he have to work to piece together a coalition.

What intrigues me the most and where I am willing to make a guess, knowing that I will probably be wrong, is how the vote in Kfar Chabad will split up. For that I guess we will see 55%-65% Aguda, 30%-40% Ichud Yemin, 3%-7% Shas, 1%-4% Zehut.

Seems like I was wrong:

תוצאות סופיות בכפר חב"ד:

6 קלפיות שנספרו:
טב – איחוד הימין, מובילה בפער ניכר מהאחרות עם 1551 קולות. -57.31%
ג' – יהדות התורה רושמת 563 קולות -20.80%
הליכוד עם נתניהו מביאים תוצאה מפתיעה: 448 קולות -16.56%
רשימת ש"ס עם 68 קולות -2.51%
'זהות' של פייגלין עם 76 קולות -2.80%

I guess with certain developments in recent years that went counter to the Rebbe's instructions, I should have predicted more of a vote which cannot be aligned with the Rebbe's directive to vote for המפלגה החרדית ביותר. Very unfortunate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Mordyk on April 09, 2019, 05:44:10 PM
https://www.vosizneias.com/320805/2019/04/09/jerusalem-gantz-declares-victory-over-netanyahu-hails-historic-vote/


how is he so convinced if final polls arent out?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 05:50:34 PM
https://www.vosizneias.com/320805/2019/04/09/jerusalem-gantz-declares-victory-over-netanyahu-hails-historic-vote/


how is he so convinced if final polls arent out?

What do you want him to say? Let's wait for final results so we can concede defeat?

He's taking advantage of his high point in the cycle to create some buzz, but it will fade away in the face of reality and they all know it!. An analogy would be if HRC would have come out to celebrate and declare winning the popular vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 09, 2019, 05:57:59 PM
What do you want him to say? Let's wait for final results so we can concede defeat?

He's taking advantage of his high point in the cycle to create some buzz, but it will fade away in the face of reality and they all know it!.

To add, if he succeeds in getting the story to be about how he won, he has an increased (although still slight) chance of forming a coalition.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 06:22:19 PM
To add, if he succeeds in getting the story to be about how he won, he has an increased (although still slight) chance of forming a coalition.

Lieberman, Kahlon, Shas, Aguda, Ichud Yemin have all pledged to recommend Netanyahu. Doing otherwise for any of them would be political suicide. Gantz has NO CHANCE.

The only chances of survival parts of the Blue & White party have, is if they break up to the parts that formed them, and then some parts might join Netanyahu and survive. Maybe if Lapid & Co. were out, Netanyahu could talk to the rest. But Lapid is a non-starter.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 09, 2019, 07:28:21 PM
Gantz is Prime minister until 1 am
lapid until 5 am
and bibi is from the morning for 4 years
 ;) ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 07:36:54 PM
At this point it seems like Gantz will be hosting the biggest Crow Feast of the century.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: myi on April 09, 2019, 07:38:29 PM
At this point it seems like Gantz will be hosting the biggest Crow Feast of the century.
where's @JTZ?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 07:45:34 PM
where's @JTZ?
Having a feast with @ChaimMoskowitz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on April 09, 2019, 07:48:09 PM
At this point it seems like Gantz will be hosting the biggest Crow Feast of the century.
Or he can just go the Stacy Abrams route and never admit that he lost.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 09, 2019, 08:05:15 PM


Or he can just go the dems route and never admit that he lost because there's an open investigation

Ftfy
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzyul on April 09, 2019, 08:09:09 PM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 08:12:01 PM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.

It definitely helps with the greater numbers of Shas and UTJ (with Shas pre-pledging support for Netanyahu, which wasn't that obvious in the past. Maybe UTJ should learn from them and make a similar pledge in the future).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 09, 2019, 08:51:27 PM
It definitely helps with the greater numbers of Shas and UTJ (with Shas pre-pledging support for Netanyahu, which wasn't that obvious in the past. Maybe UTJ should learn from them and make a similar pledge in the future).

Im pretty sure I remember seeing ג did pledge for Bibi. They for sure said that they would never sit in a coalition with Lapid.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 09, 2019, 08:57:31 PM
Who won?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 09, 2019, 09:01:48 PM
Who won?
Looks like netanyahu is slightly ahead of gantz, and right wing Bloc has the majority of seats
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 09:04:14 PM
Im pretty sure I remember seeing ג did pledge for Bibi. They for sure said that they would never sit in a coalition with Lapid.
They definitely said Lapid is a non-starter, but they didn't put Bibi in the center of their campaign like Shas did. Had they done so, maybe they would have got more votes in Kfar Chabad and Beitar (amongst other places) rather than people voting Likud.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 09, 2019, 11:35:33 PM
They definitely said Lapid is a non-starter, but they didn't put Bibi in the center of their campaign like Shas did. Had they done so, maybe they would have got more votes in Kfar Chabad and Beitar (amongst other places) rather than people voting Likud.
Who do chabad officially vote for?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on April 09, 2019, 11:37:11 PM
Who do chabad officially vote for?

I guess with certain developments in recent years that went counter to the Rebbe's instructions, I should have predicted more of a vote which cannot be aligned with the Rebbe's directive to vote for המפלגה החרדית ביותר. Very unfortunate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on April 09, 2019, 11:37:23 PM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 11:47:09 PM
Who do chabad officially vote for?

With one historical exception (in which the Rebbe instructed to support UTJ), the Rebbe's instructions have always been for individuals to vote for מפלגה החרדית ביותר, and that Chabad doesn't endorse any party.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on April 10, 2019, 12:20:30 AM
the problem with some is that they side with Arabs against Jews other then that we never believed the Zionism is the correct path, although today's generation is much different as most of them are tinokos shenishbu.

someone once asked rav oirbach if they should protest with the arabs he responded CH'V the arabs protest the little bit of yiddishkeit that they have while we protest the lack of yiddishkeit
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Baruch on April 10, 2019, 12:26:21 AM
It definitely helps with the greater numbers of Shas and UTJ (with Shas pre-pledging support for Netanyahu, which wasn't that obvious in the past. Maybe UTJ should learn from them and make a similar pledge in the future).
From https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Gantz-beats-Netanyahu-with-largest-number-of-seats-coalition-unclear-586230
President Reuven Rivlin will meet with the heads of the parties that cross the threshold next week. Shas, UTJ and URP announced late Tuesday that they would recommend Netanyahu to form the government. Kahlon and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman said they would wait for the final results.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on April 10, 2019, 12:30:56 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
R' Reuven Grozovsky and R' Elchonon both have plenty written on the topic.
Title: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:36:09 AM
From https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Gantz-beats-Netanyahu-with-largest-number-of-seats-coalition-unclear-586230
President Reuven Rivlin will meet with the heads of the parties that cross the threshold next week. Shas, UTJ and URP announced late Tuesday that they would recommend Netanyahu to form the government. Kahlon and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman said they would wait for the final results.
Announcing this after the election, or even a couple of days before, isn’t enough to calm and convince the base that they wouldn’t sell out to Gantz if the opportunity presented itself (especially when some of the MKs such as Gafni and Eichler are perceived as left wingers).

Contrast this with Deri who knew that his base unequivocally wants Bibi as PM, so he campaigned under the banner of Shas supporting Netanyahu for PM, telling people that by voting for Shas they get two benefits for the price of one, they get the Shas social agenda with absolute support for Bibi as PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on April 10, 2019, 01:12:22 AM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: YitzyS on April 10, 2019, 01:14:26 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
There was a book published recently called “The Empty Wagon”. I didn’t read it but I heard it’s excellent and very extensive.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: YitzyS on April 10, 2019, 01:23:14 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
Sent PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: User6669 on April 10, 2019, 01:45:29 AM
Congratulations Netanyahu.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ludmila on April 10, 2019, 01:47:35 AM
Congratulations Netanyahu.
Official or not yet?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 10, 2019, 02:56:34 AM
Official or not yet?

It is official that he will be Prime Minister, how many seats he gets is not official.  I am shocked by Zeut's and Bennetts destruction. Shaked aligned herself with the wrong person.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on April 10, 2019, 06:38:23 AM
R' Reuven Grozovsky and R' Elchonon both have plenty written on the topic.
Thanx where would i find it? Is it in a Sefer somewhere?
I think my friend would only be able to read it if it’s in English
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 10, 2019, 07:08:53 AM
Thanx where would i find it? Is it in a Sefer somewhere?
I think my friend would only be able to read it if it’s in English
https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Wagon-Zionisms-journey-identity/dp/1642555541


I haven't read it,but my impression is that he had an agenda to marry the litvish hashkofa with satmar.

So in reality he's probably 80% accurate and 20% satmar influence. Not the pure hashkofa.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 08:10:52 AM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.

It helps with Bibi's legal troubles.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 08:38:30 AM
It is official that he will be Prime Minister, how many seats he gets is not official.  I am shocked by Zeut's and Bennetts destruction. Shaked aligned herself with the wrong person.
Zehut wasn't destroyed, it was never more than a cloud of smoke (pun intended). The non-commitment to support either support Netanyahu or Gantz definitely didn't help anyone who wanted to get in.

As for the New Right, they didn't really put forth a compelling story. They are seen as spineless opportunistic troublemakers that eventually do the right thing. So if my choice is between Shaked and another vote that might get Ben Gvir in, I am sure many would choose the latter.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 09:39:05 AM
Official or not yet?
https://ladaat.co/archives/24853

Probably by tomorrow afternoon (Israel time) we will have final results.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 10, 2019, 09:50:22 AM
With one historical exception (in which the Rebbe instructed to support UTJ), the Rebbe's instructions have always been for individuals to vote for מפלגה החרדית ביותר, and that Chabad doesn't endorse any party.

So who generally is the מפלגה החרדית ביותר that you are saying UTJ was the exception?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: doodle on April 10, 2019, 09:50:52 AM
https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Wagon-Zionisms-journey-identity/dp/1642555541


I haven't read it,but my impression is that he had an agenda to marry the litvish hashkofa with satmar.

So in reality he's probably 80% accurate and 20% satmar influence. Not the pure hashkofa.
No way near 80% accurate.
Recreating history , choosing the Gedolim/Shitos that fit the narrative. Partially accurate but incorrect overall view/agenda .
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 10, 2019, 09:53:05 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
You have it wrong:

Satmar's main priority with this demonstration is not to protest against Bibi - it's to protest against most of Chareidi Jews and their Gedolim for not being in line with their "shitah"....

It is indeed terrible......
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 09:54:33 AM
So who generally is the מפלגה החרדית ביותר that you are saying UTJ was the exception?

The exception was publicly and officially supporting a specific party, rather than leaving it to individual judgment, which is based on subjective opinions. I have no doubt in my mind that if Gafni and Eichler weren't in the UTJ list, UTJ would get a much larger portion of the Kfar Chabad vote.

Some of the logic used, is that a true חרדי would know that פיקוח נפש goes ahead of many other things, and supporting a left wing government (or agenda of appeasement) is regarded as Pikuach Nefesh.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 10, 2019, 09:56:05 AM
The exception was publicly and officially supporting a specific party, rather than leaving it to individual judgment, which is based on subjective opinions. I have no doubt in my mind that if Gafni and Eichler weren't in the UTJ list, UTJ would get a much larger portion of the Kfar Chabad vote.
Got it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 10, 2019, 10:00:20 AM
The exception was publicly and officially supporting a specific party, rather than leaving it to individual judgment, which is based on subjective opinions. I have no doubt in my mind that if Gafni and Eichler weren't in the UTJ list, UTJ would get a much larger portion of the Kfar Chabad vote.

Some of the logic used, is that a true חרדי would know that פיקוח נפש goes ahead of many other things, and supporting a left wing government (or agenda of appeasement) is regarded as Pikuach Nefesh.
So Shas?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:06:59 AM
As for the New Right, they didn't really put forth a compelling story. They are seen as spineless opportunistic troublemakers that eventually do the right thing.

Why would someone vote for them rather than Likud? Did they make that case?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:08:04 AM
So Shas?

Even worse from a shleimus ha'aretz perspective.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 10:13:26 AM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on April 10, 2019, 10:18:09 AM

I think my friend would only be able to read it if it’s in English
definitely not english
https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Wagon-Zionisms-journey-identity/dp/1642555541


I haven't read it,but my impression is that he had an agenda to marry the litvish hashkofa with satmar.

So in reality he's probably 80% accurate and 20% satmar influence. Not the pure hashkofa.
He's much closer to Satmar than that.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:40:19 AM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....

B"H, now that we have a dose of sinas chinam this thread is a real Israeli election thread.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on April 10, 2019, 10:46:46 AM
B"H, now that we have a dose of sinas chinam this thread is a real Israeli election thread.
Look in the mirror.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:47:49 AM
Look in the mirror.

Huh?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 11:06:51 AM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....

You start sounding like CBC when you write like that.

Not saying that I agree with the writer, but if you want to understand the reasoning of people to vote for the United Right Wing read http://col.org.il/%D7%97%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%97%D7%91%D7%93_%D7%9C%D7%9E%D7%94_%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%99_%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%98%D7%91_%D7%95%D7%9C%D7%90_%D7%90%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%92_%D7%93%D7%A2%D7%94_117541.html

Which also explains some of the history where Shas is

Even worse from a shleimus ha'aretz perspective.

It would be a long stretch to call Shas מפלגה החרדית ביותר (and even a greater stretch to do so for the United Right Wing). Accepting ministerial positions, especially in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, or at the Ministry of Interior, presents very serious Halachic problems.

As for Shleimus Ha'aretz (or Pikuach Nefesh), while it is true that Shas (and specifically Arye Deri) have an extremely tainted history, I think at this point they have learned their lesson. (Though I would think Deri learned it better, as he has personally suffered, whereas Gafni (and Litzman) never saw real personal consequences for their support of Gaza withdrawal.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 11:47:19 AM
Electoral math:

(https://i.imgur.com/jLQhCQr.png)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 11:49:22 AM

It would be a long stretch to call Shas מפלגה החרדית ביותר. Accepting ministerial positions, especially in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, or at the Ministry of Interior, presents very serious Halachic problems.


Aren't all of their decisions based on the psokim of their rabbonim? Is Rabbi Sholom Cohen (or Rabbi Ovadia Yosef) less charedi than the rabbonim of ג?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 11:52:14 AM
Aren't all of their decisions based on the psokim of their rabbonim? Is Rabbi Sholom Cohen (or Rabbi Ovadia Yosef) less charedi than the rabbonim of ג?

Would any of the Rabbonim of ג ever consider accepting or running for a position of Chief Rabbi of the State of Israel?

ETA: Read https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=13937.msg1921517#msg1921517 and follow the link to read the booklet יהדות התורה והמדינה. This might give people some better perspective of where Chabad stands.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:15:16 PM
How's this for a possible scenario:

Blue & White disintegrates, either entirely or into the 3 or 4 parts that united in order to form it, and some of those end up supporting a Netanyahu coalition, while Lieberman remains out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 12:19:58 PM
How's this for a possible scenario:

Blue & White disintegrates, either entirely or into the 3 or 4 parts that united in order to form it, and some of those end up supporting a Netanyahu coalition, while Lieberman remains out.

All is possible. It's crucial for Charedim that Bennett passes with the military votes. He needs to get 5% among them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:22:35 PM
All is possible. It's crucial for Charedim that Bennett passes with the military votes. He needs to get 5% among them.
I'm not so sure that is true. While Bennet is probably easier to deal with than Lieberman, he's a bit of a troublemaker for no good reason, and if he gets in with 4 or 5 seats (the difference in votes is minuscule) who loses?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 12:48:21 PM
I'm not so sure that is true. While Bennet is probably easier to deal with than Lieberman, he's a bit of a troublemaker for no good reason, and if he gets in with 4 or 5 seats (the difference in votes is minuscule) who loses?

UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:56:11 PM
UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.

I don't know if that is accurate, the math is very complex (see image I posted above). Lieberman is indeed a headache, and Netanyahu knows that UTJ and Shas are probably the most reliable partners.

As for losing the 8th, that would be a shame. I think Pindrus is a very talented guy (I've heard good things about him from people that worked with him when he was mayor of Beitar) who has been a victim of political games (mostly by his own faction) played over the last decade or so.

I have a sense (maybe a hope) that the last local election in Israel were the low point of מחלוקת, and we are on a way up from here towards productive unity with mutual respect. Let's hope that we see only positive and uniting actions and words henceforth.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 02:26:46 PM
Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.

Bibi can get a very narrow coalition without Lieberman now, if he includes Kahlon. Not saying that he's going to do it, but it's possible.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 10, 2019, 02:52:11 PM
Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 03:02:20 PM
Bibi can get a very narrow coalition without Lieberman now, if he includes Kahlon. Not saying that he's going to do it, but it's possible.

Only 60 without him now. Things will shift around tomorrow with the last quarter million votes counted.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 03:02:36 PM
Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely

He won't do it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 03:34:33 PM
Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely

You really think so?

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 05:00:24 PM
Only 60 without him now. Things will shift around tomorrow with the last quarter million votes counted.

I see now. The numbers I was looking at had Likud at 37, and Balad not making it in.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on April 10, 2019, 06:37:37 PM
I recall that there is a law that you need a certain number of MKs to break off from a party, I guess the most ideal option would be to convince enough center-right MKs to leave Gantz and then you won’t need Lieberman
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 07:10:06 PM
I recall that there is a law that you need a certain number of MKs to break off from a party, I guess the most ideal option would be to convince enough center-right MKs to leave Gantz and then you won’t need Lieberman

Netanyahu obviously had moles within the Gantz campaign/close circles, as evidenced by leaks of recordings. While Lapid is too arrogant (besides for being persona non-grata), and Gantz would need to backtrack on public statements he made, I will not be surprised if we see defectors or a breakup.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: doodle on April 10, 2019, 08:11:08 PM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....
From many other things, this rings true ..
can you link sources to this pattern ?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 01:37:50 AM
UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.
Not final yet, but if indeed Bennet gets in, while it seems to be most detrimental to Blue & White, it hurts by having UTJ lose the 8th seat, as well as United Right Wing losing a seat, which keeps Ben Gvir (the only candidate of that list that I would have loved to see in, as he is great entertainment and a wonderful thorn in the side of the left wing) further away from getting in.

Quote
אם אכן תיכנס מפלגת הימין החדש לכנסת, משמעות הדבר כי מפלגת כחול לבן תרד מ-35 ל-33 מנדטים. איחוד מפלגות הימין תרד במנדט מ-5 ל-4 מנדטים, וכך גם מפלגת יהדות התורה שתרד מ-8 מנדטים ל-7.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 11, 2019, 05:35:01 AM
Not final yet, but if indeed Bennet gets in, while it seems to be most detrimental to Blue & White, it hurts by having UTJ lose the 8th seat, as well as United Right Wing losing a seat, which keeps Ben Gvir (the only candidate of that list that I would have loved to see in, as he is great entertainment and a wonderful thorn in the side of the left wing) further away from getting in.

Seems Bennett is out and Likud is at 37.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 11, 2019, 06:02:24 AM
You start sounding like CBC when you write like that.

Not saying that I agree with the writer, but if you want to understand the reasoning of people to vote for the United Right Wing read http://col.org.il/%D7%97%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%97%D7%91%D7%93_%D7%9C%D7%9E%D7%94_%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%99_%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%98%D7%91_%D7%95%D7%9C%D7%90_%D7%90%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%92_%D7%93%D7%A2%D7%94_117541.html

Which also explains some of the history where Shas is

It would be a long stretch to call Shas מפלגה החרדית ביותר (and even a greater stretch to do so for the United Right Wing). Accepting ministerial positions, especially in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, or at the Ministry of Interior, presents very serious Halachic problems.

As for Shleimus Ha'aretz (or Pikuach Nefesh), while it is true that Shas (and specifically Arye Deri) have an extremely tainted history, I think at this point they have learned their lesson. (Though I would think Deri learned it better, as he has personally suffered, whereas Gafni (and Litzman) never saw real personal consequences for their support of Gaza withdrawal.
Oh stop being so sensitive. If it's true that y'all vote for mizrachi then that's all he said.

And please stop saying rediculous things like Shas and ג not being the most charedi. They clearly and obviously are. Duh.

Even the article you linked doesn't claim that.

The aurgument is that not having extreme right ring views is pikuach nefesh so you can vote for mizrachi. Ok, obviously this is not something 90% of the frum world agreed with but I guess you are entitled.

You are also not entitled to pull out your " sinas chinam" card when it is you who separate from the rest of the frum world for elections..
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 02:31:04 PM
Oh stop being so sensitive. If it's true that y'all vote for mizrachi then that's all he said.

All I said was that when @Moshe123 starts making assumptions or drawing conclusions as to what others think or feel, he sounds like you.

And please stop saying rediculous things like Shas and ג not being the most charedi. They clearly and obviously are. Duh.

Though you are the only one who seems to have a reading comprehension problem (as well as a problem using simple logic).

מפגלה החרדית ביותר can only be one party. This ain't your kids, who can all be the most loved, we are talking about a certain criterion for voting for a political party, where you can only vote for one. So which one of the two is it in your opinion? I clearly outlined a certain very obvious difference between the two.

I will furthermore state, that while it would have been wonderful to see even more unity, it is quite obvious that the reason Shas didn't unite with UTJ was in order to attract the Sephardic votes that wouldn't likely vote so easily for a "Chareidi" block. They might have made a right calculation. IDK.

Even the article you linked doesn't claim that.

The aurgument is that not having extreme right ring views is pikuach nefesh so you can vote for mizrachi. Ok, obviously this is not something 90% of the frum world agreed with but I guess you are entitled.
I didn't say the article said anything about being Charedi or not. That being said, if a person seems and acts "Charedi" but is a blatantly practices Mesirah, and not only in דיני ממונות, but even in דיני נפשות. Whereas another might not seem outwardly Charedi, might be more independent in actions and decisions, rather than deferring to דעת תורה, but will by no means put another Jew in danger, which one is more "Charedi"?

You are also not entitled to pull out your " sinas chinam" card when it is you who separate from the rest of the frum world for elections..
I definitely didn't draw the "sinas chinam" card, though when it comes to involvement in politics, the Rebbe's shitta is clearly different that most of the rest of the "frum world". The Rebbe being the only legitimate spokesperson for Chabad clearly stated that Chabad does not join or endorse any party, and whatever political (as in policy issues, rather than political parties) involvement exists, it is only in things that are relevant to כלל ישראל, rather than advancing sectorial needs.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 11, 2019, 02:33:31 PM
No assumptions.

https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=696

Results from Kfar Chabad.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 02:40:40 PM
No assumptions.

https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=696

Results from Kfar Chabad.

I posted those results before they were made public on the Israeli government website, and lamented them.

However, when you write
Quote
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it
that is making assumptions about where people's sympathies lie.

When Litzman, Gafni and Deri (and possibly also Eichler, I'm not sure) all have a proven record of aiding and abetting government decisions that are deemed Pikuach Nefesh, people have a hard time voting for them in a clear conscience. It's that simple. (not saying that I agree or disagree, or what I would have done, but just stating the simple reasoning, that has nothing to do with sympathies. Chabad is and was always opposed to Zionism, but doesn't let that get in the way of loving and caring for every Jew, even if they are Zionists).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 11, 2019, 02:51:35 PM
I posted those results before they were made public on the Israeli government website, and lamented them.

However, when you writethat is making assumptions about where people's sympathies lie.

When Litzman, Gafni and Deri (and possibly also Eichler, I'm not sure) all have a proven record of aiding and abetting government decisions that are deemed Pikuach Nefesh, people have a hard time voting for them in a clear conscience. It's that simple. (not saying that I agree or disagree, or what I would have done, but just stating the simple reasoning, that has nothing to do with sympathies. Chabad is and was always opposed to Zionism, but doesn't let that get in the way of loving and caring for every Jew, even if they are Zionists).

I assume you mean that they are voting opposite the side that would be deemed pikuach nefesh.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 02:59:15 PM
I assume you mean that they are voting opposite the side that would be deemed pikuach nefesh.

Deri was a minister in the government that approved the Oslo accords and didn't vote against them.

Litzman was AWOL at a vote regarding the Gaza withdrawal.

Gafni actually voted against the Gaza withdrawal but is viewed as aiding and abetting by helping vote for the government budget, which allowed the government to last beyond the Gaza withdrawal rather than fall before the withdrawal could be carried out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 05:18:38 PM
Final results published, only change seems to be Likud gaining 1 seat at the expense of UTJ  :( However, while these results do seem final, the official count gets published next Wednesday (ask @Yehuda57 as to when that is, he might tell you that the official count is being published this Wednesday).

Let's hope Lieberman doesn't end up being too much of a troublemaker, and that URW manages to get Ben-Gvir in as they have pledged to do, so we get some good entertainment and a thorn in the Lefties sides.

Quote
ועדת הבחירות המרכזית פרסמה הערב (חמישי) את התוצאות הסופיות של הבחירות לכנסת ה-21 שנערכו ביום שלישי השבוע, לאחר סיום הבדיקות וחישוב תוצאות הסכמי העודפים.

על פי התוצאות הסופיות הליכוד היא המפלגה הגדולה ביותר עם 36 מנדטים, במקום השני כחול לבן עם 35 מנדטים.

ש"ס מקבלת 8 מנדטים, יהדות התורה 7 מנדטים, העבודה 6 מנדטים, חד"ש-תע"ל 6 מנדטים, ישראל ביתנו 5 מנדטים, איחוד מפלגות הימין 5 מנדטים, כולנו 4 מנדטים, מרצ 4 מנדטים ורע"מ-בל"ד גם כן 4 מנדטים.

על פי התוצאות הסופיות עומד גוש הימין על 65 מנדטים ואילו גוש השמאל עומד על 55 מנדטים. ‏לימין החדש היו חסרים 1461 קולות כדי להיכנס לכנסת.

ו"ר ועדת הבחירות המרכזית, השופט חנן מלצר, הדגיש כי התוצאות שפורסמו הערב ''אינן התוצאות הרשמיות שיפורסמו ב-17 באפריל 2019 ויוגשו לנשיא המדינה.

''אנו שומרים לעצמנו את הזכות לבחון את התוצאות בכלי בקרה נוספים שונים, שמפעילה הוועדה, לצורך שיקוף ההצבעה הבוחרים בתוצאות, באופן המיטיבי ובהתאם לחוק הבחירות לכנסת, ולכן תוצאות אלה עוד כפופות לשינויים והתאמות", הוסיף מלצר.

במפלגת הימין החדש הגיבו: ''התוצאות שפורסמו אינן סופיות, ואנחנו ממשיכים להילחם. אנו מצפים מהתקשורת לגלות קצת יותר רצינות בדיווחיה.

''לאורך היום הוקם במטה המפלגה חמ"ל שריכז כ-1,000 כשלים וליקויים בהליכי ההצבעה. מיד בתחילת השבוע נקבל לידינו את הפרוטוקולים ומאות המתנדבים שלנו ישוו אותם לתוצאות הממוחשבות.

''כמו כן, נטפל בכל אי הסדרים הקיצוניים שהתגלו בספירת המעטפות הכפולות. נקבל את הכרעת הבוחר, אך לא נוותר עד שנדע מה היא באמת", הוסיפו בימין החדש.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on April 11, 2019, 07:31:40 PM
The new government will not last long. There's no way the charedim and Lieberman can sit together peacefully. And there's no coalition without them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 12, 2019, 03:10:58 AM
The new government will not last long. There's no way the charedim and Lieberman can sit together peacefully. And there's no coalition without them.

Unless Netanyahu can convince certain Blue and White MK's to move back to Likud...It is a real possibility and then he can leave Lieberman out. (He would only need 2-3
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on April 12, 2019, 08:44:16 AM
Really hoping for Ben gvir!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 12, 2019, 09:06:20 AM
Really hoping for Ben gvir!

Yup. No one comes close to the entertainment he can provide.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 16, 2019, 06:11:52 AM
Very curious what the % of Charedim actually vote in elections....UTJ getting 8 seats is I believe a record for them....What would happen if the Charedim voted the same as the national average would they not be over 10-12 seats?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 16, 2019, 06:42:31 AM
Very curious what the % of Charedim actually vote in elections....UTJ getting 8 seats is I believe a record for them....What would happen if the Charedim voted the same as the national average would they not be over 10-12 seats?
Charedim vote more than the national average. (Approx 75% vs 65%)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 16, 2019, 06:53:30 AM
Charedim vote more than the national average. (Approx 75% vs 65%)

How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 16, 2019, 07:00:40 AM
How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
Sure they vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 16, 2019, 07:06:42 AM
How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
Most chassidim vote. Only a few sects do not
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 08:36:12 AM
How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
What would make you assume that when the following (large) sects are actually members of UTJ and either have or had MKs: Ger, Vizhnitz, Belz? In addition a few other sects are members of UTJ.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chff on April 16, 2019, 08:39:10 AM
Most chassidim vote. Only a few sects do not
Just a small thought I had, there was 40+ parties running in this election. If Satmar would vote, there would have been another few parties
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 16, 2019, 08:44:06 AM
Just a small thought I had, there was 40+ parties running in this election. If Satmar would vote, there would have been another few parties
Cmiiw, but I don't think there are that many satmar living in EY. There are some others that don't vota, but I think it would probably translate into maybe 1-2 more seats. No source for these numbers, just what it seems to me
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 09:07:02 AM
Most chassidim vote. Only a few sects do not
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 16, 2019, 09:07:56 AM
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?
Of course
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 09:09:48 AM
Of course
Segregated M/F lines?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 16, 2019, 09:43:37 AM
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?
I have no clue.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shapsam on April 16, 2019, 09:49:10 AM
Segregated M/F lines?
They coordinate the timing with the men and women.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 16, 2019, 11:44:09 AM
Segregated M/F lines?
Segregated M/F lines in the Makolet?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 01:49:17 PM
I don't know if that is accurate, the math is very complex (see image I posted above). Lieberman is indeed a headache, and Netanyahu knows that UTJ and Shas are probably the most reliable partners.

As for losing the 8th, that would be a shame. I think Pindrus is a very talented guy (I've heard good things about him from people that worked with him when he was mayor of Beitar) who has been a victim of political games (mostly by his own faction) played over the last decade or so.

I have a sense (maybe a hope) that the last local election in Israel were the low point of מחלוקת, and we are on a way up from here towards productive unity with mutual respect. Let's hope that we see only positive and uniting actions and words henceforth.

Seems like UTJ is at 8 after official results published, at the expense of Likud.

https://13news.co.il/item/news/politics/elections-2019/netanyahu-peretz-221106/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yammer on April 16, 2019, 01:55:45 PM
Just a small thought I had, there was 40+ parties running in this election. If Satmar would vote, there would have been another few parties
They can be a different party but would probably come together for the election.
Cmiiw, but I don't think there are that many satmar living in EY. There are some others that don't vota, but I think it would probably translate into maybe 1-2 more seats. No source for these numbers, just what it seems to me
If you include all the Yirushalmis that don't vote your taking about 2+ seats IMHO
Seems like UTJ is at 8 after official results published, at the expense of Likud.

https://13news.co.il/item/news/politics/elections-2019/netanyahu-peretz-221106/
Yup
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 16, 2019, 02:34:40 PM
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?

Ishto K'Goof oh - their husbands get to vote twice.

In communities where they regulate women's exercise classes and the color of their underwear, I can't imagine they would let them vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on April 16, 2019, 03:31:48 PM
Seems like UTJ is at 8 after official results published, at the expense of Likud.

https://13news.co.il/item/news/politics/elections-2019/netanyahu-peretz-221106/
Awesome. So Pindrus is in?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 16, 2019, 05:42:20 PM
Yes
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on April 16, 2019, 07:59:14 PM
Yes
Nice. Finally back on the map since his lost mayoral race. He did a lot for Beitar in his day. Brought in a lot of foreign funds to build up the city.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on April 16, 2019, 08:14:59 PM
In EY elections is very personal,
its either a Mitzvah to vote or an Avairah, Either you love the party or hate it on a personal level.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on April 16, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
In EY everything is very personal,
its either a Mitzvah or an Avairah, Either you love it or you hate it on a personal level.
FTFY.  :P
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 16, 2019, 09:50:50 PM
Among Jews
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on May 13, 2019, 11:01:46 PM
Any update on coalition talks? I haven’t really heard anything lately
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ~King Lake~ on May 13, 2019, 11:25:40 PM
Any update on coalition talks? I haven’t really heard anything lately
Looks like Bibi is having trouble putting together one
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on May 14, 2019, 06:33:13 AM
Any update on coalition talks? I haven’t really heard anything lately

Lieberman holding out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on May 14, 2019, 07:03:51 AM
Lieberman holding out.
He’s no good, he hates the chareidim and he’s not dependable, he left the last coalition.
I still think Bibi should try to take away some MKs from Gantz, has there been any talk of that? I’m sure it shouldn’t be too hard to find 5-6 guys that would rather be in the government than in the opposition, and anyways from What I hear, there’s a lot of infighting in Ganz’s party. Everyone there wants to be in charge
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 29, 2019, 05:34:23 PM
Round 2 coming up.

I can't figure out why they don't just do it as a two round system in the first place.

Round one needs to get 1/120th of electorate to get into round 2. Round 2 to be held two weeks later needs 1/12th (or other high threshold) to get in. That way all agreements get done before round 2, people know better what they are voting for, and the circus and demands get reduced).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on May 29, 2019, 07:38:48 PM
Not a bad idea, but very hard to get the vote out twice.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 29, 2019, 07:50:00 PM
The polls are predicting a similar outcome, where the right wing bloc has 59+ Liberman, so we may only be at the beginning of this circus.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Denverite on May 29, 2019, 08:30:53 PM
The polls are predicting a similar outcome, where the right wing bloc has 59+ Liberman, so we may only be at the beginning of this circus.

Sorry, not familiar with the details of the Israeli system. In the Sep. redo is it the exact same parties? If not, could Bennet and Shaked go back with the National religious party because their splinter cost that block 4 seats because they failed to meet the minimum.  Just those extra Dati Leumi votes could make a new majority.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 29, 2019, 08:39:22 PM
It's an open election, anybody can run. The problem with that is Shaked is not religious, and those parties have religious agendas. Shaked will likely join either the Likud or Liberman where she can have a more significant career.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on May 29, 2019, 11:27:18 PM
Shaked will probably join likud. Not sure about Bennet.

If feiglin voters dump him and you have Bennet and feiglin voters voting right parties.. that and Arab party not making cut could swing right wing block to 70+ seats

So Lieberman would not be a factor.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 30, 2019, 01:10:34 AM
Shaked will probably join likud. Not sure about Bennet.

If feiglin voters dump him and you have Bennet and feiglin voters voting right parties.. that and Arab party not making cut could swing right wing block to 70+ seats

So Lieberman would not be a factor.
IMHO it’s a futile exercise to try to predict anything at this point before we even know who’s in the race (as in party mergers and shifts).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on May 30, 2019, 05:02:43 AM
IMHO it’s a futile exercise to try to predict anything at this point before we even know who’s in the race (as in party mergers and shifts).

Very true but it seems like Feiglin is looking to join with another party based on posts he put out today. Bennett has to realize he is a nothing without Shaked and he should be like Eli Yishai giving his votes to another party.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 30, 2019, 06:04:06 AM
Very true but it seems like Feiglin is looking to join with another party based on posts he put out today. Bennett has to realize he is a nothing without Shaked and he should be like Eli Yishai giving his votes to another party.
Do you really think anyone (except for possibly Lieberman) would take him.

I think Lieberman might take some votes away from Blue and White, as he's singing a similar tune to Lapid.

I also think that overall Blue and White might set a record as the fastest and most spectacular crash of Israeli politics.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on May 30, 2019, 07:28:04 AM
Do you really think anyone (except for possibly Lieberman) would take him.

I think Lieberman might take some votes away from Blue and White, as he's singing a similar tune to Lapid.

I also think that overall Blue and White might set a record as the fastest and most spectacular crash of Israeli politics.

I think Feiglin will join with Bayit Yehudi and Bennett will join with Lieberman.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 30, 2019, 08:03:58 AM
I think Feiglin will join with Bayit Yehudi and Bennett will join with Lieberman.

Bennett might join Lieberman, but try as he may, I doubt anyone will accept Feiglin into their ranks.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzyul on May 30, 2019, 10:15:35 AM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.

And this is exactly what I "predicted".
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on June 30, 2019, 10:09:17 AM
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/06/israel-ehud-barak-benny-gantz-benjamin-netanyahu-elections.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on June 30, 2019, 10:23:00 AM
Anyone thinking that Netanyahu doesn't have a strategy vis-a-vis Gaza, is in total denial.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/06/palestine-qatari-grant-emadi-poor-families-israel-gaza-cash.html

Quote
“Israel closely monitors the lists of beneficiaries of the cash grant," he told Al-Monitor. "It removed about 5,000 families from the fifth tranche of its grant disbursed in May 13 and is now removing tens of thousands from the sixth tranche, prompting the Qatari ambassador to announce a change in the disbursement mechanism.”
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on July 01, 2019, 04:34:14 AM
Anyone thinking that Netanyahu doesn't have a strategy vis-a-vis Gaza, is in total denial.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/06/palestine-qatari-grant-emadi-poor-families-israel-gaza-cash.html

Strategy or not he is losing voters.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 01, 2019, 12:31:27 PM
Strategy or not he is losing voters.

At least that's what the masters of #FakeNews are telling you.

In the meantime, enjoy the following video I saw on a WhatsApp group:

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on July 29, 2019, 10:53:40 PM
Is there any update on the elections?
Did all the small groups on the right unite?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shimino1 on July 30, 2019, 02:08:43 AM
Is there any update on the elections?
Did all the small groups on the right unite?
No.
Only the two larger parties united.
There are still two small parties worth together 2-5 seats that are not part of the union.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 09:07:41 AM
Is there any update on the elections?
Did all the small groups on the right unite?

It's all irrelevant. Any way you slice things, Lieberman remains the most powerful guy. It doesn't seem like there's a way to keep him out. It could become interesting when no one will be able to form a coalition because of him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shimino1 on July 30, 2019, 10:21:24 AM
It's all irrelevant. Any way you slice things, Lieberman remains the most powerful guy. It doesn't seem like there's a way to keep him out. It could become interesting when no one will be able to form a coalition because of him.
He is not as relevant as he keeps telling everyone.

There are only four possible outcomes regarding Leiberman:
1. Likud + all the Religious/Chareidi parties get more then 61 seats and form a government without Liberman
2. Lieberman joins with Likud and the all religious/Chareidi parties to form a government
3. Blue and white + the deep left parties + Liberman + the Chareidim form a government
4. Likud and Blue and white form a government in which case either they don't need anyone else or they need another 5-10 seats in which case it is far more likely the chreidim join.

Any other scenario such as blue and white breaking up after the election or labor party joining a likud government would not require Leiberman's help.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 30, 2019, 01:26:56 PM
He is not as relevant as he keeps telling everyone.

There are only four possible outcomes regarding Leiberman:
1. Likud + all the Religious/Chareidi parties get more then 61 seats and form a government without Liberman
2. Lieberman joins with Likud and the all religious/Chareidi parties to form a government
3. Blue and white + the deep left parties + Liberman + the Chareidim form a government
4. Likud and Blue and white form a government in which case either they don't need anyone else or they need another 5-10 seats in which case it is far more likely the chreidim join.

Any other scenario such as blue and white breaking up after the election or labor party joining a likud government would not require Leiberman's help.

No way Lieberman and the Charedim sit together in a left-led coalition. Charedim would never do it.

Only options are Netanyahu + right wing + Charedim with or without lieberman or a unity government where lieberman's seats aren't as powerful.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 01:37:41 PM
He is not as relevant as he keeps telling everyone.

There are only four possible outcomes regarding Leiberman:
1. Likud + all the Religious/Chareidi parties get more then 61 seats and form a government without Liberman
2. Lieberman joins with Likud and the all religious/Chareidi parties to form a government
3. Blue and white + the deep left parties + Liberman + the Chareidim form a government
4. Likud and Blue and white form a government in which case either they don't need anyone else or they need another 5-10 seats in which case it is far more likely the chreidim join.

Any other scenario such as blue and white breaking up after the election or labor party joining a likud government would not require Leiberman's help.

Option 1 doesn't seem likely at all, unless by some miracle Lieberman doesn't cross the threshold to enter the Knesset.
Option 2 would require Lieberman to renege on everything, I don't think this is likely.
Option 3 won't happen as long as Lapid is there, and as far as Lieberman joining, see option 2.
Option 4 is the least unlikely of your scenarios, though I find it highly unlikely.

Blue and White breaking up could be a scenario, but they are well aware of that, and are preempting it, so it's not very likely as long as the breakup didn't occur prior to the election. Labor (which is likely to be renamed) might join (haven't seen yet if they pledged anything anti-Netanyahu).

But all you need to do is look at Greece, Belgium or even the UK and find out what political chaos in a parliamentary system means. I find this as the most likely outcome, and have no clue as to how it gets resolved.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 30, 2019, 02:10:25 PM
Option 1 doesn't seem likely at all, unless by some miracle Lieberman doesn't cross the threshold to enter the Knesset.
Option 2 would require Lieberman to renege on everything, I don't think this is likely.
Option 3 won't happen as long as Lapid is there, and as far as Lieberman joining, see option 2.
Option 4 is the least unlikely of your scenarios, though I find it highly unlikely.

Blue and White breaking up could be a scenario, but they are well aware of that, and are preempting it, so it's not very likely as long as the breakup didn't occur prior to the election. Labor (which is likely to be renamed) might join (haven't seen yet if they pledged anything anti-Netanyahu).

But all you need to do is look at Greece, Belgium or even the UK and find out what political chaos in a parliamentary system means. I find this as the most likely outcome, and have no clue as to how it gets resolved.

If the right votes efficiently (no Otzmah and no Zehut) they could get to 61 with Likud + Charedim. They were at 59/60 last time. The wildcard is where Liberman (who is projected to grow) grabs seats from.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 02:25:50 PM
If the right votes efficiently (no Otzmah and no Zehut) they could get to 61 with Likud + Charedim. They were at 59/60 last time. The wildcard is where Liberman (who is projected to grow) grabs seats from.

I don't think you are being realistic.

See for example: https://docs.google.com/gview?embedded=true&url=img.mako.co.il/2019/07/30/news12electionpoll.pdf&Partner=interlink
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on July 30, 2019, 03:33:16 PM
I don't think you are being realistic.

See for example: https://docs.google.com/gview?embedded=true&url=img.mako.co.il/2019/07/30/news12electionpoll.pdf&Partner=interlink

That actually proves his point. Zehut and Otzma are pulling 2.5% which is 3 seats. That puts the right/chareidim at 60

ETA: I should have looked past the second page ..
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 03:37:48 PM
That actually proves his point. Zehut and Otzma are pulling 2.5% which is 3 seats. That puts the right/chareidim at 60

How are you reading that into the poll? Zehut and Otzma aren't strong enough to cross the threshold. And when combined with other right wing parties, the balance of power remains more or less the same.

(https://i.imgur.com/yHoil3w.png)

The weakest link in this deadlock, and the one most likely to blink is whatever the former Labor party will be named. The people leading it supposedly care mostly about socioeconomic issues, and might be somewhat aligned with Shas in those areas. They also have shown a history of signing up with whoever will take them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 30, 2019, 04:26:24 PM
How are you reading that into the poll? Zehut and Otzma aren't strong enough to cross the threshold. And when combined with other right wing parties, the balance of power remains more or less the same.

(https://i.imgur.com/yHoil3w.png)

The weakest link in this deadlock, and the one most likely to blink is whatever the former Labor party will be named. The people leading it supposedly care mostly about socioeconomic issues, and might be somewhat aligned with Shas in those areas. They also have shown a history of signing up with whoever will take them.

The Chareidim are always the weakest link.

The issue is I can't see them in a coalition with Lapid and Lieberman who both want army service. So whatever labor is won't be big enough to tip a coalition.

Would the new right join blue and white, former labor, and Lieberman if they got 61? Who knows? It's going to be messy if the right + Chareidim don't hit 61 in any outcome, and it's the "fault" of a lot of people.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 04:41:52 PM
The Chareidim are always the weakest link.
-1


The issue is I can't see them in a coalition with Lapid and Lieberman who both want army service. So whatever labor is won't be big enough to tip a coalition.

Would the new right join blue and white, former labor, and Lieberman if they got 61? Who knows? It's going to be messy if the right + Chareidim don't hit 61 in any outcome, and it's the "fault" of a lot of people.

With the Arabs + Lieberman potentially holding over 20 seats, it's deadlock all over again between the pro-Bibi and anti-Bibi camps. It is political chaos. Greece has seen it, the UK is seeing it (in regards to Brexit), and other parliamentary systems have seen it. It isn't pretty and it can drag on for a long time.

If Otzma and Noam join together will they cross the threshold? That's anyone's guess, and it's a dangerous move. At this point it's all speculation at least until the lists/parties are finalized by the end of this week. But the big picture remains that Lieberman and the Arabs wield the most power.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 30, 2019, 04:43:43 PM
-1


With the Arabs + Lieberman potentially holding over 20 seats, it's deadlock all over again between the pro-Bibi and anti-Bibi camps. It is political chaos. Greece has seen it, the UK is seeing it (in regards to Brexit), and other parliamentary systems have seen it. It isn't pretty and it can drag on for a long time.

If Otzma and Noam join together will they cross the threshold? That's anyone's guess, and it's a dangerous move. At this point it's all speculation at least until the lists/parties are finalized by the end of this week. But the big picture remains that Lieberman and the Arabs wield the most power.
I think the Chareidim will join any coalition that let's them keep the army status quo + money, and save face on religion and state.

Why do you say they are anything but the weakest link?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 30, 2019, 04:50:18 PM
I think the Chareidim will join any coalition that let's them keep the army status quo + money, and save face on religion and state.

Why do you say they are anything but the weakest link?

1. Lapid is persona non-grata! B&W + UTJ and/or SHAS is something that won't happen, because neither side will back off (B&W won't discard Lapid, and UTJ/SHAS won't accept anything where he has any say).

2. They have publicly pledged to support Netanyahu in the previous elections. While this is a new round, and they might be a little more cautious here, I doubt it will change. They also know that Netanyahu is by far more capable than any of the other clowns. I think his successor might end up being Barkat, but that's years down the road, not now. If Israel would have direct personal election of the Prime Minister, Netanyahu would win it even if he stayed silent the entire campaign.

OTOH Amir Peretz and Orly Levi, they will jump on any opportunity given to them (I am not aware of any pledge they might have made one way or another). The other "option" would be a breakup of B&W. The sooner that happens, the better. It's a hodgepodge of opportunists and some talented people. It's the "leadership" of B&W that presents the biggest problem.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on July 30, 2019, 06:37:48 PM
Amir Peretz/Labor is refusing to state he won't sit with Netanyahu, so these elections end one of 3 ways:

1) Lieberman recommends Bibbi and Bibbi forms a govt with Peretz as Defense Minister and Lieberman crawling in.

2) Right has 60 without Lieberman and same happens, perhaps less for Peretz.

3) B&W get more seats than the Likud, Lieberman recommends Gantz, and there will be a left wing government.

3 is extremely unlikely considering the polls always underestimate the Likud, and if Lieberman causes a true left government he really is toast, no anti Haredi law will be significant enough to save him 
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on July 30, 2019, 06:40:15 PM
Additionally, Bibbi will never agree to any form of Gantz being prime minster, the Likud will never break up, and it appears very unlikely that B&W does before the govt is formed.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shimino1 on July 30, 2019, 06:53:03 PM
It is very possible that the right hits 61 without Liberman.
It happened in 2015.
It also would have happened in the past elections if Bennet + Zehut + Orly Levi hadn't thrown away over 300,000 right wing votes worth 4-6 seats.

For the 61 seat scenario to work you need the answer to two questions:
1. How stupid will the religious right wing parties be this time around?
2. If Liberman really does grow, where will his extra votes come from? Lapid's rabid chareidi haters or the "soft" right (Kachlon's old voters)?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on July 30, 2019, 07:04:10 PM
1. How stupid will the religious right wing parties be this time around?
The parties are in the final position now IMO. Question is RE the voters of Zehut & Otzma Yehudit.

2. If Liberman really does grow, where will his extra votes come from? Lapid's rabid chareidi haters or the "soft" right (Kachlon's old voters)?

The polls are very clearly showing the second. But in all likelihood they are underestimating the Likud again as always, and Bibbi will manage to snag a bit from Lieberman by bringing Putin to Israel etc.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on July 31, 2019, 12:14:42 AM
Are Eli Yishai and Amnon Yitzchok still a factor?
Will they be wasting any right votes?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 31, 2019, 10:10:52 AM
It is very possible that the right hits 61 without Liberman.
It happened in 2015.
It also would have happened in the past elections if Bennet + Zehut + Orly Levi hadn't thrown away over 300,000 right wing votes worth 4-6 seats.

For the 61 seat scenario to work you need the answer to two questions:
1. How stupid will the religious right wing parties be this time around?
2. If Liberman really does grow, where will his extra votes come from? Lapid's rabid chareidi haters or the "soft" right (Kachlon's old voters)?
Lieberman is polling better than last time around... If his goal was to pretend to hate the draft deferments to become a king maker, it's working.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 31, 2019, 10:15:29 AM
Lieberman is polling better than last time around... If his goal was to pretend to hate the draft deferments to become a king maker, it's working.
Or the actual king.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on July 31, 2019, 10:37:25 AM
Amir Peretz/Labor is refusing to state he won't sit with Netanyahu, so these elections end one of 3 ways:

1) Lieberman recommends Bibbi and Bibbi forms a govt with Peretz as Defense Minister and Lieberman crawling in.

2) Right has 60 without Lieberman and same happens, perhaps less for Peretz.

3) B&W get more seats than the Likud, Lieberman recommends Gantz, and there will be a left wing government.

3 is extremely unlikely considering the polls always underestimate the Likud, and if Lieberman causes a true left government he really is toast, no anti Haredi law will be significant enough to save him

THREE WILL NEVER HAPPEN!!! The left cannot form a govt because there are many MK's in Blue and White that would never ever sit with the arabs regardless if it means Bibi winning.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 31, 2019, 10:42:47 AM
THREE WILL NEVER HAPPEN!!! The left cannot form a govt because there are many MK's in Blue and White that would never ever sit with the arabs regardless if it means Bibi winning.

There are several reasons why it won't happen. Not the least of them is that Lieberman, no matter what he does end up doing, won't join B&W without another LARGE party being part of it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on July 31, 2019, 10:49:55 AM
There are several reasons why it won't happen. Not the least of them is that Lieberman, no matter what he does end up doing, won't join B&W without another LARGE party being part of it.

And Lieberman would never ever sit with the Joint List, which then means they need to bring in the Charedi parties which would then bring us back to the original problem.

The most likely scenario is Likud forming something with Labor/Unified Right/Charedim as was mentioned above
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 31, 2019, 10:57:24 AM
And Lieberman would never ever sit with the Joint List, which then means they need to bring in the Charedi parties which would then bring us back to the original problem.

The most likely scenario is Likud forming something with Labor/Unified Right/Charedim as was mentioned above

Which is what I said, but if Labor (or whatever it will be named) doesn't cross the threshold, or won't play ball (unlikely IMHO, given the history of the individuals) we're back at political chaos.

Whichever way you slice things, B&W is an unworkable hodgepodge that was put together by elements that are constantly seeking ways to topple Netanyahu. They failed with their V15 initiative, and bez"h will fail again.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on July 31, 2019, 12:03:15 PM
Which is what I said, but if Labor (or whatever it will be named) doesn't cross the threshold, or won't play ball (unlikely IMHO, given the history of the individuals) we're back at political chaos.

Whichever way you slice things, B&W is an unworkable hodgepodge that was put together by elements that are constantly seeking ways to topple Netanyahu. They failed with their V15 initiative, and bez"h will fail again.
I think some sort of unity government involving B&W splitting up is most likely, or Lieberman and the Chareidim find a way to come up with a compromise where both sides can claim a victory (maybe that drafing starts in 4 years and suddenly the government disolves after 3.5).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on July 31, 2019, 12:43:40 PM
https://youtu.be/ELZ83LN4Mow

This video is gold. Watch how after arguing, all of a sudden when faced with a tough question at 0:14 he swiftly turns his head away and walks away.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 01, 2019, 12:36:27 PM
Lieberman seems to agree with me that Labor is the weakest link in the opposition to Netanyahu.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shimino1 on August 01, 2019, 02:01:40 PM
Lieberman seems to agree with me that Labor is the weakest link in the opposition to Netanyahu.
I really hope you don't start spewing as much garbage as Liberman does. So far he has been wrong most of the time.
In the days leading to the last election he promised in interviews that he will get at least 10 seats.
Previously he has promised to pass a death penalty for terrorists, promised to strip "unloyal" Arab citizens of their citizenship, promised public transportation on Shabbos, promised civil marriage, promised to destroy Hamas, promised to kill the Hamas head and on and on and on.

He is a liar and a politician who can only grab power, not pass reforms.
I doubt very much that the end results will resemble the current polls or that Liberman will be a kingmaker after the next elections.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 01, 2019, 05:38:07 PM
The parties are in the final position now IMO
8) 8) 8)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 01, 2019, 05:39:53 PM
There are several reasons why it won't happen. Not the least of them is that Lieberman, no matter what he does end up doing, won't join B&W without another LARGE party being part of it.
I'm not so convinced. His other option is crawling in to Bibbi and being ridiculed for eternity. Gantz having not better alternative may go so far as giving him a rotation for PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 01, 2019, 05:42:16 PM
THREE WILL NEVER HAPPEN!!! The left cannot form a govt because there are many MK's in Blue and White that would never ever sit with the arabs regardless if it means Bibi winning.


Rabin formed a gov't of 50 with support from the Arabs outside. I wonder if the Arabs won't support Bibbi though, Gantz is no better for them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 01, 2019, 05:46:18 PM
Which is what I said, but if Labor (or whatever it will be named) doesn't cross the threshold, or won't play ball (unlikely IMHO, given the history of the individuals) we're back at political chaos.
True, but Labor will for sure cross the threshold, they have a strong generational base. And Peretz says he will join Bibbi if it comes to it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 07, 2019, 07:03:56 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/netanyahu-s-boxed-in-and-could-be-finished-at-next-election?srnd=premium
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 07, 2019, 07:08:59 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/netanyahu-s-boxed-in-and-could-be-finished-at-next-election?srnd=premium
Well written

'“If there is a result as we see in the polls today, there will be formidable pressure for a national unity government” yoking Likud and Blue and White, “and this can go through only without Netanyahu,” said Gayil Talshir, a senior lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “And he has no intention of leaving of his own will.”'

Not true IMO. Vast majority of the country is opposed to a national unity government. Most of the country is split into 2 groups Only Bibbi and Only Not Bibbi. Nobody wants a combination.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on August 07, 2019, 10:44:19 PM
Well written

'“If there is a result as we see in the polls today, there will be formidable pressure for a national unity government” yoking Likud and Blue and White, “and this can go through only without Netanyahu,” said Gayil Talshir, a senior lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “And he has no intention of leaving of his own will.”'

Not true IMO. Vast majority of the country is opposed to a national unity government. Most of the country is split into 2 groups Only Bibbi and Only Not Bibbi. Nobody wants a combination.
A unity government without bibi should satisfy the 45%+ who don't want bibi and its the only way to get rid of bibi.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on August 07, 2019, 10:49:04 PM
Just curious, if your not on the left, why would someone be anti bibi?
Isn’t it obvious that he’s close with Trump and that been very beneficial for Israel? Why not just keep him there till Trumps gone? Is it because of all the lawsuits against him? Is t cuz other politicians are power hungry and want their chance in the spot light?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 12, 2019, 02:31:44 PM
https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001297002
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ADG on August 12, 2019, 03:09:57 PM
Just curious, if your not on the left, why would someone be anti bibi?
Isn’t it obvious that he’s close with Trump and that been very beneficial for Israel? Why not just keep him there till Trumps gone? Is it because of all the lawsuits against him? Is t cuz other politicians are power hungry and want their chance in the spot light?

Switch these two words around and you got it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on August 12, 2019, 05:06:41 PM
I really don't see how a government will be formed...unless Labor sits with Likud + United Right + Chareidim.
I know pollsters all put the Arabs in left wing camp, it's just not accurate.
So you have ~53-55 for the right wing camp
10 for Lieberman
~45 for left wing camp
And 11 for Arab

The math just doesn't add up. Crazy country
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 12, 2019, 05:16:30 PM
I really don't see how a government will be formed...unless Labor sits with Likud + United Right + Chareidim.
I know pollsters all put the Arabs in left wing camp, it's just not accurate.
So you have ~53-55 for the right wing camp
10 for Lieberman
~45 for left wing camp
And 11 for Arab

The math just doesn't add up. Crazy country

I've been saying this for a while.

Though one never knows what will happen with politics. There can always be surprises. Depending on how parties harp on this, I really think Motti Steinmetz could become a game-changer.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on August 12, 2019, 05:33:47 PM
I've been saying this for a while.

Though one never knows what will happen with politics. There can always be surprises. Depending on how parties harp on this, I really think Motti Steinmetz could become a game-changer.
I don't think Motti Steinmetz will have any effect
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 12, 2019, 05:49:19 PM
I don't think Motti Steinmetz will have any effect

Possibly. It depends on how things play out, and how different parties/politicians/press harp on it. So far, I think it might have had the effect of causing Smotritch to lose respect by some. He seems to be acting immaturely. I think that if played correctly, Lapid and Lieberman's responses could cause some moderate (or "sane" in Israeli parlance) people who contemplated voting for them switching their vote elsewhere.

It would be interesting if UTJ would be able to pull off a TV ad over this, not in order to bring votes to them, but rather in order to cause people to withdraw votes from radical anti-Yiddishkeit elements such as Lapid, Lieberman, and possibly others. With some good creative minds I think they could come up with a very effective message.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on August 12, 2019, 06:05:41 PM
Um...Is this even making a dent in mainstream Israel media? If not, how could it possibly effect anything.

It's only mentioned as a side-story to Smotrich's complaints about Netanyahu's handling of har habayis issue on Sunday
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 12, 2019, 06:15:31 PM
Um...Is this even making a dent in mainstream Israel media? If not, how could it possibly effect anything

I'm not there, so I can't really tell much from a distance (other than seeing that as of today it doesn't seem to be in Israeli MSM if news.google.co.il is any indication). It would be the greatest PR miss IMHO if they don't leverage it.

Now Hidbroot seems to be indicating that there is some MSM responses to this (https://www.hidabroot.org/article/1128109), but the fact that it's not on page 1 (though I would imagine that the Netanyahu-Smotritch meeting which is a fallout from this is) seems to indicate a PR miss. There's still the supreme court, but I hope they don't wait for that.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 12, 2019, 06:30:48 PM
It is all over the Israeli media.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 12, 2019, 11:50:38 PM
Is this MSM?

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on August 13, 2019, 04:45:24 AM
If Likud can start working on 5 MK's in B&W now they should be able to pull off a win without Lieberman.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 13, 2019, 05:00:47 AM
A unity government without bibi should satisfy the 45%+ who don't want bibi and its the only way to get rid of bibi.
Who's in the unity government without Bibbi? Frum won't. Arabs? That ain't unity.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on August 13, 2019, 06:48:33 AM
Who's in the unity government without Bibbi? Frum won't. Arabs? That ain't unity.

The unity Govt is Bibi+Gantz+Lieberman
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 13, 2019, 06:52:02 AM
The unity Govt is Bibi+Gantz+Lieberman

Ain't happening during our lifetime.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on August 13, 2019, 07:22:38 AM
The unity Govt is Likud without Bibi+Gantz+Lieberman

FTFY
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 13, 2019, 07:24:24 AM
FTFY

You've been drinking the kool-aid.

As all polls show, if it was a direct vote for PM Netanyahu vs anyone else would win in a landslide. When push comes to shove, everyone knows that of his opposition there's no one capable, let alone as capable as him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 15, 2019, 01:37:01 PM
Amazing! Ha'aretz actually dares to publish something that everyone knows. Gantz is simply incompetent.

Quote
בעיה ושמה גנץ
אורי משגב 15.08.2019 02:00
בנסיבות אחרות היה אפשר למצוא בבני גנץ איכויות קומיות ראויות לציון. נטייתו לומר דבר והיפוכו, ובעיקר לא להגיד כלום על שום דבר. הריטואל הקבוע, שבו הוא מסתבך ומתפתל סביב שאלת החבירה לבנימין נתניהו, ואז ננזף מפי חבריו ופרסומאיו ונשלח בבהילות למקצה שיפורים. כישוריו המופלאים בשיבוש ביטויים ופתגמים ("אם בארזים נפלה שלכת", "נתניהו הציע לי חצי עולם ומלואו", "בנפול אויבך אל תירא", "מפלגת כחול איתן").

מעט כבד דיבור, קצת כבד שמיעה. פעם יש בעיה עם יונית באוזנייה, ופעם זו האוזן של האם–16. אנושי, לפעמים כמעט מכמיר לב, בחור טוב במובן הרע של המלה, ברוח האבחנה המרושעת של משה דיין. והכל בניגוד מוצהר לקו הלסת התקיף, למבט הכחול החודר ולקומה הזקופה. אלא שבזמן הזה, במקום הזה, כבר מדובר בדמות קומית־טרגית. זה לא באמת מצחיק, ואף יכול לקרב אדם לידי דמעות של תסכול.

לפני הבחירות הקודמות, כנשאל גנץ בדבר התעקשותו על ההובלה, יוחסה לו אמירה נבונה: אתה יכול להיות רמטכ"ל לשעבר רק פעם אחת. אלא שהפעם ההיא חלפה. לכאורה נכפו הבחירות החוזרות על כחול לבן; המפלגה התנגדה לפיזור הכנסת, בשם הממלכתיות והסלידה המוצדקת מתרגילי נתניהו. בפועל קיבלו המפלגה ואחיותיה לאופוזיציה, באדיבות אביגדור ליברמן, הזדמנות פז: מועד ב', ובתנאים משופרים.

כל זאת אחרי שנתניהו במצוקתו ותבהלתו ערב הבחירות ואחריהן הוריד את כל המסכות: חתירה לעסקת חסינות בניגוד להבטחותיו. זלזול בדמוקרטיה. בחישה בימין הקיצוני והפעלת כל כובד משקלו להכנסת הכהניסטים לכנסת. התמסרות לחרדים ולחרד"לים. בליעה חפוזה של "כולנו", תוך כדי אובדן מיידי של ארבעה מנדטים שהתחזו ל"ימין שפוי" ול"מרכז". מינויים ופיטורים בממשלת מעבר, בניגוד לכללים, כולל ליהוק שרים שהציבור הרחב סולד מהם (בצלאל סמוטריץ', רפי פרץ, דוד אמסלם). השתוללות בשליחותו במשרד המשפטים ובמשרד מבקר המדינה.

כל אלה היו יכולים לשמש חומר תבערה אלקטורלי — אם לא להעברת מאסות של קולות, לפחות להפחת רוח חיים ורוח לחימה במחנה המתנגד לנתניהו והנעתו לפעולה. אבל גנץ בעיקר מכבה. בלשון עכשווית, הוא בא להוריד.

גנץ מרבה להתפאר שכחול לבן היא סיפור, אבל בהנהגתו מאפיין אותה דווקא חוסר היכולת להציע משהו ביחס למשהו. לא תוכנית מדינית, לא תפישה כלכלית, לא התחייבות כלשהי בנושאי דת ומדינה, לא נקיטת עמדה בשום סוגיה הנמצאת על הפרק או עולה על סדר היום התזזיתי. מפלגת סטטוס קוו, משותקת מזעם הבוחר, משובצת גנרלים עטורי קרבות, הנזהרים שלא להרגיז איש. זו בעיקר פלטפורמה, שנתפרה אד־הוק להחלפת נתניהו — מטרה ראויה, ואפילו קדושה — אך לא ממש ברור בשם מה.

בולט במיוחד היחס התמוה והאמביוולנטי של גנץ לנתניהו. כאן התמוה כבר נהפך לתימהוני. אפילו חרפת ועדת ההיתרים לא הטרידה את מנוחתו השבוע. כשמזכירים לו שהוא אינו אמור לשבת עם נתניהו, ולא חשוב מה סדר הישיבה, הוא מתעשת ונתלה בסיבה יחידה: כתבי האישום שאינם מאפשרים לנתניהו לתפקד. גנץ נהנה להצהיר שאין לו שום בעיה אישית עם נתניהו.

אלא שלהמוני ישראלים יש ויש בעיה אישית עם נתניהו. מושחת ומשחית, מסית ומסיט, הוא מחריב את המדינה שלהם, ולפעמים מוציא להם את החשק לחיות בה. הם מביטים בכיליון עיניים אל מי שמתיימר להוביל את המחנה שלהם, ואז משפילים מבט.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 19, 2019, 01:03:25 PM
https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-5571532,00.html

Quote
מה יש בהופעתו של גנץ המקנה לו יתרון על פני אחרים? הנוכחות האמינה והרגועה שלו. גם כאשר גמגם את היו-יו-יונית הוא עשה זאת בנינוחות ובלי להתעצבן. אם מורידים את הווליום של הקטע הזה, מתקבל מנהיג שאפשר לסמוך עליו.
 
זהו יכול להיות גם ההסבר מדוע הוא עדיין מקבל בסקרים את הנתונים הגבוהים ביותר במידת התאמתו לכהן כראש ממשלה, אחרי נתניהו. יותר מאשר חבריו בצמרת כחול לבן וראשי מפלגות השמאל.

Though they are ignoring the fact, that even though he's ahead of his peers, he still significantly lags Netanyahu, something that wasn't necessarily true in the Rabin-Shamir match-up.


And here's the important quote (in context):
Quote
מחנה המרכז-שמאל ממשיך ברובו לתמוך בגנץ למרות הקריצה שלו ימינה והטענה שאינו יודע להתראיין. המודל של המצביעים האלה הוא כנראה יצחק רבין, שגמגם ופזל לבוחרי הליכוד, אבל לאחר מכן עשה את הדבר הנכון.

The context being:
Quote
המראה האמין יכול לחפות גם על התבטאויות לא אמינות. רבין שבר ימינה בבחירות 1992 ואימץ את תוכנית האוטונומיה של הליכוד, שמשמעותה הייתה שלא לצאת משטחי יהודה ושומרון. הוא גם הכריז ש"לא נרד מרמת הגולן" אם יהיה הסכם עם הסורים. את צבעי הקמפיין של "העבודה" שהיו תמיד באדום, הוא החליף לכחול לבן.

אבל זמן קצר מאוד לאחר בחירתו רבין הוא הוביל לחתימת הסכם אוסלו שלפיו ישראל יצאה משטחים מרכזיים בגדה המערבית וניהל מו"מ עם חאפז אל אסד שבו נידונה האפשרות שישראל תיסוג לשפת הכינרת. זה לא פגע באמינותו שלו משום שבמחנה שלו התייחסו אל אמירותיו בבחירות כצורך טקטי. הם האמינו שלאחר הבחירות הוא יפעל לפי רוח המחנה, מה שאכן קרה בפועל.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 20, 2019, 12:25:33 PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on August 20, 2019, 12:48:53 PM
Amazing! Ha'aretz actually dares to publish something that everyone knows. Gantz is simply incompetent.
Ha'aretz is an excellent newspaper. It may be biased towards one point of view but it covers both.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 22, 2019, 12:09:39 PM
This is amazing.

Netanyahu can probably take this with a shoestring campaign budget.

זכה, נעשית מלאכתו בידי אחרים.

All he needs to do is let his opponents talk (or keep silent, either way they make their own case less and less compelling - when they talk, they reveal their incompetence and/or true colors, when they keep silent, everyone questions their competence).

Now he has an Arab MK saying he might consider joining a Gantz coalition.

Anyone that can put 2 and 2 together realizes that somehow, somewhere the forces (and major money) behind B&W and a few other things happening is coming from the same sources as the V15 organization. They failed then, and bez"h will fail again.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 22, 2019, 04:16:04 PM
You can't make up this stuff.  Gantz really thought he could leverage a bochur wearing a Yechi Yarmulka?

https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1025797

All Netanyahu needs to do is remain mum. The left will keep on generating their own blunders.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on August 22, 2019, 04:29:29 PM
a Yechi Yarmulka?

What does that have to do with anything?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 22, 2019, 04:46:48 PM
What does that have to do with anything?

Know your customers. Someone wearing such a Yarmulka (if he's of voting age) is likely to vote for UTJ, Otzma (Ben-Gvir), or Yamina (though I think the last two are less likely), none of which support Gantz.

It would be like using a soundbite of Yankel Litzman claiming he supports B&W.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 22, 2019, 06:58:53 PM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/685005

Taken with a grain of salt, given the bias of the source, but here's an interesting snippet:

Quote
נתון זה לא נכון לגבי מצביעי ישראל ביתנו, המעדיפים ברוב של 51% ממשלת אחדות של הליכוד וכחול לבן. גם בוחרי כחול לבן מעדיפים שיתוף עם הליכוד. 54% ממצביעיהם אמרו כי הם מעדיפים ממשלה בהרכב זה.

Essentially saying that a majority of B&W voters (and Lieberman voters) want the Likud in (shared) power, vs having B&W in power and Likud out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 24, 2019, 10:51:29 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/24/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-election.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 25, 2019, 10:15:35 AM
The left will keep on tripping themselves and handing it to Bibi on a silver platter.

https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/685413
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 25, 2019, 01:27:03 PM
Extreme left wing writer op-ed in Ha'aretz:

Quote
רק לא כחול לבן
גדעון לוי 25.08.2019 02:00
הצביעו שמאל, הצביעו ימין — רק אל תצביעו כלום. הכלום של כחול לבן הוא לא סתם כלום, הוא כלום הרסני. הוא חונק כל סיכוי לאלטרנטיבה ומצמית כל תקווה לשינוי. ראשי הכלום הזה מאיימים שהסבב הבא בעזה יהיה "הסבב האחרון" ומתנערים מהמתון שבמנהיגים של ערביי ישראל, כאילו היה מצורע. אם זו החלופה לשלטון הימין — עדיף המקור. נכון שהם יותר נחמדים ופחות מושחתים, אין ספק שיחוללו כמה שינויים שישנו את האווירה בישראל. אבל הם כבר הוכיחו מעל לכל ספק שכל אימת שצריך לנקוט עמדה בנושא שאינו פופוליסטי כמו הקמת בתי חולים, אלא בעניין שנוי במחלוקת כמו מלחמה ושלום, הם תמיד יבחרו בעמדות הימין. ננו־תהום של מיקרונים פעורה ביניהם לבין הליכוד כשזה מגיע לשאלות היסוד. כחול לבן רק ימהרו יותר להוביל את ישראל לעוד מלחמה נפשעת וחסרת תוחלת.

תגובתם המחפירה של ראשי כחול לבן על דבריו של איימן עודה הייתה הראיה הניצחת לפחדנותם או לימניותם, לא ברור מה גרוע ממה. מותר להניח שראשי כחול לבן מסכימים לכאורה למרבית התנאים התיאורטיים שהציב עודה להצטרפות לממשלה, רק פחדנותם שמא יצטיירו באור שמאלני מדי דחפה אותם לתגובה המתנערת, שהציבה אותם לימין "עוצמה יהודית". אבל נזקי ההסתה שלהם גדולים לאין שיעור מאלו של "עוצמה יהודית": כשיאיר לפיד או גבי אשכנזי מתנערים מעודה כמו מפני מחלה, הם משפיעים בהסתה שלהם על הזרם המרכזי בחברה הישראלית, לא על נערי הגבעות.

גם הדיבור החלול על "סבב אחרון" ועל "החזרת ההרתעה" הוכיח שהכלום בכחול לבן הוא רק עוד ועוד ימין, ללא שום מותר על הליכוד. הסבב הבא שלהם בעזה לא יהיה האחרון וגם לא הלפני־לפני האחרון, כי בדיוק כמו הליכוד הם מציעים רק כוח ועוד כוח, וכמה עצמות להרגעת הרעב. ככה יהיו עוד אינסוף סבבים. ראשי כחול לבן יודעים מהו הפתרון היחיד לעזה, זה שאין להם בדל אומץ להציעו. כמה מהם הרגו בה לא מעט, דם פלסטיני רב על ידיהם, והם יודעים לאן כל זה הוביל בעבר, ולאן זה תמיד יוביל גם בעתיד.

הם גם יודעים עד כמה נבוב הוא הדיבור על הרתעה, כשהייאוש הוא הכוח המניע. כשצעיר פלסטיני מניח מטען במעיין שנשדד מכפרו, הוא יודע שבכך הוא הורס את חייו ואת חיי משפחתו — והוא לא נרתע. שום דבר גם לא ירתיע אותו, זולת התקווה למציאות אחרת. הדקלומים על הרתעה הם לפחדנים ולפופוליסטים, כמו אלו של כחול לבן. אמיצים היו מדברים על פתרון אמת, על הסרת המצור על עזה ועל סיום הכיבוש בגדה. זולת אלה אין פתרונות. אבל זה כבר גדול על כחול לבן המייאשת בכמה מספרים.

כחול לבן מציעה שלטון גנרלים. כמי שהעבירו את מרבית חייהם בקסרקטינים הם מכירים רק שפה אחת, שפת הכוח, ורק שני סוגי ערבים, המחבל או המשת"פ. הם גם יודעים מעט מאוד על החיים בישראל. הם היו עסוקים בשיטור ובמלחמות. איש משלושת הגנרלים המובילים בכחול לבן לא הרחיב את תמונת העולם שלו אל מעבר לכך. הדיבור העילג שלהם רק מעיד על כך. התוספת האזרחית של לפיד רק גורעת: הוא הפוליטיקאי הפופוליסטי ביותר בישראל כיום. "הרתעה משיגים בדרך אחת — בכוח. בהרבה כוח ובכוח לא פרופורציונלי", התרברב שלשום המאצ'ו דל לה שמאטה מרמת אביב ג' וסימן את גבולות הגזרה של הסיכוי לשינוי בישראל: אפס.

ביבי או טיבי? טיבי, בלא היסוס; ביבי או בני גנץ? ביבי, בהיסוס.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on August 29, 2019, 12:33:05 PM
Major positive development.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-netanyahu-clears-major-obstacle-in-bid-sweep-right-wing-voters-1.7767145

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/feiglin-officially-withdraws-his-far-right-zehut-party-from-elections/

Now he needs to clear Otzma and Noam.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 07:23:16 AM
Wow pretty intense in ג HQ
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 01:27:22 PM
Higher voter tonight....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Sammy82 on September 17, 2019, 02:14:35 PM
How long till results start rolling in?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 02:32:45 PM
How long till results start rolling in?

Polls close 10pm (3pm EDT) with some exceptions of a few stations that got an extension to midnight. Once polls close media channels projections will be published.



https://www.mako.co.il/tv/Article-3bf5c3a8e967f51006.htm

https://www.ynet.co.il/home/0,7340,L-8,00.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 17, 2019, 03:08:00 PM
Who is favored by the polls?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on September 17, 2019, 03:10:29 PM
Who is favored by the polls?
I'm not sure, but I think with Israel in general you need to assume it's the opposite of what the exit polls show...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 03:16:28 PM
Its officially very tight
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: BP16 on September 17, 2019, 03:22:58 PM
Its officially very tight
What happens if neither could form a government again? 
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 03:23:40 PM
What happens if neither could form a government again?
Unity netanyahu-ganz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 17, 2019, 03:25:01 PM
What happens if neither could form a government again? 
Unity government or another redo.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 17, 2019, 03:28:22 PM
Unity government or another redo.
Based on exit polls, either that or the Chareidim and Lieberman make a deal.

Can't see another redo this time.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 03:29:30 PM
Based on exit polls, either that or the Chareidim and Lieberman make a deal.

Can't see another redo this time.
Thats only if netanyahu gets offered to be PM...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 03:29:57 PM
I'm not sure, but I think with Israel in general you need to assume it's the opposite of what the exit polls show...
The problem is that there's no opposite. Either way you slice it it's not a workable situation unless B&W breaks up (unlikely at this point IMHO).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 17, 2019, 03:33:34 PM
The problem is that there's no opposite. Either way you slice it it's not a workable situation unless B&W breaks up (unlikely at this point IMHO).
A Likud breakup might be more likely if gantz is allowed by rivlin to attempt to form a government. B&W, Lieberman, and a portion of Likud could get to 61 without anyone else.

Throw in Yamina for pledges in the settlements, and you're there with less than half of Likud splitting.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 03:37:44 PM
A Likud breakup might be more likely if gantz is allowed by rivlin to attempt to form a government. B&W, Lieberman, and a portion of Likud could get to 61 without anyone else.

Throw in Yamina for pledges in the settlements, and you're there with less than half of Likud splitting.
Likud isn't breaking up.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 03:39:57 PM
Likud isn't breaking up.
Bibi might back off and the number 2 will make the unity
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 03:44:02 PM
Bibi might back off and the number 2 will make the unity
Highly unlikely IMHO. Also who is #2?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 17, 2019, 03:44:47 PM
Highly unlikely IMHO. Also who is #2?
Their going to have internal elections
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 03:46:13 PM
Their going to have internal elections
Now?  ::) ::) ::) ::)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 03:53:03 PM
As ballot boxes are counted, results will be posted here: https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 04:16:56 PM
Lieberman seems to agree with me that Labor is the weakest link in the opposition to Netanyahu.

Can't forget this important tidbit.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 17, 2019, 05:40:59 PM
So...who's up for round 3?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 17, 2019, 05:44:16 PM
I really don't see how a government will be formed...unless Labor sits with Likud + United Right + Chareidim.
I know pollsters all put the Arabs in left wing camp, it's just not accurate.
So you have ~53-55 for the right wing camp
10 for Lieberman
~45 for left wing camp
And 11 for Arab

The math just doesn't add up. Crazy country
Spot on (except take 2 from Lieberman and give them to the left
Still a crazy country
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 17, 2019, 05:47:42 PM
So right now there are only 2 paths to a government
1. Likud + Yamina + Chareidim + Labor
2. Likud + Blue/White
I don't know which is more unlikely. Especially since if Likud doesn't have more mandates than Blue/White no way Netanyahu sits under Gantz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 07:49:06 PM
How come last time around at this hour there was over 50 percent of the vote counted and now I see nothing?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 07:50:04 PM
How come last time around at this hour there was over 50 percent of the vote counted and now I see nothing?
Website isn't updated.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 07:52:18 PM
That's my question. Why?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 07:53:54 PM
That's my question. Why?

Maybe less people working night shift.  Attitude is different than last time around.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 07:59:16 PM
Se were not gonna have any official election night results until tomorrow?  :o

What a country!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 08:00:14 PM
Se were not gonna have any official election night results until tomorrow?  :o

What a country!
Certified results are due on the 25th.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 17, 2019, 08:04:28 PM
Soldiers get counted last. Often bumps the right up by a bit, maybe a seat.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: justaregularguy on September 17, 2019, 08:14:05 PM
i read in some live blog the results are coming in much slower and wont be fully official until wednesday afternoon
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 08:40:38 PM
https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=6100
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 08:47:19 PM
i read in some live blog the results are coming in much slower and wont be fully official until wednesday afternoon
i understand that. official results always take a few day. but now we have no idea whats going on other than the phony exit polls.

can you share a link?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 08:49:52 PM
https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=3000

What's up with J'lem? So many votes for super fringe parties that no-one even mentions!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 08:52:31 PM
Finally. 5% in.

שם הרשימה   אותיות הרשימה   אחוז קולות הרשימה
מסה"כ הקולות הכשרים   מספר הקולות הכשרים לרשימה
הליכוד בהנהגת בנימין נתניהו לראשות הממשלה   מחל   31.15%   104,169
כחול לבן - בראשות בני גנץ ויאיר לפיד   פה   24.67%   82,500
ישראל ביתנו בראשות אביגדור ליברמן   ל   9.75%   32,607
התאחדות הספרדים שומרי התורה תנועתו של מרן הרב עובדיה יוסף זצ"ל   שס   9.19%   30,719
יהדות התורה והשבת אגודת ישראל - דגל התורה   ג   6.22%   20,788
ימינה בראשות איילת שקד הבית היהודי-האיחוד הלאומי-הימין החדש   טב   5.71%   19,094
העבודה - גשר בראשות עמיר פרץ ואורלי לוי אבקסיס   אמת   5.01%   
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 08:57:03 PM
IMHO the big mistake of Likud and possibly even Shas and UTJ is in not championing for civil issues of the Arab population. There are plenty of decent Arabs in the country, and one of the reasons for the traditionally low turnout in the Arab sector is that the Arab parties are all extreme left, and care more about Palestinians than of real civil issues that matter to the Israeli population. In the past (before Deri went to jail, IINM) Shas managed to get some nice votes amongst Arabs.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 09:01:35 PM
Am I missing something? Tel Aviv only has 15,230 eligible voters?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 09:03:01 PM
Updated.  Is it too early for ליכוד to celebrate?

הליכוד בהנהגת בנימין נתניהו לראשות הממשלה   מחל   30.50%   198,867
כחול לבן - בראשות בני גנץ ויאיר לפיד   פה   23.60%   153,896
התאחדות הספרדים שומרי התורה תנועתו של מרן הרב עובדיה יוסף זצ"ל   שס   9.14%   59,603
ישראל ביתנו בראשות אביגדור ליברמן   ל   9.00%   58,699
יהדות התורה והשבת אגודת ישראל - דגל התורה   ג   6.79%   44,271
ימינה בראשות איילת שקד הבית היהודי-האיחוד הלאומי-הימין החדש   טב   6.09%   39,746
העבודה - גשר בראשות עמיר פרץ ואורלי לוי אבקסיס   אמת   4.91%   32,042
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on September 17, 2019, 09:07:18 PM
Updated.  Is it too early for ליכוד to celebrate?

הליכוד בהנהגת בנימין נתניהו לראשות הממשלה   מחל   30.50%   198,867
כחול לבן - בראשות בני גנץ ויאיר לפיד   פה   23.60%   153,896
התאחדות הספרדים שומרי התורה תנועתו של מרן הרב עובדיה יוסף זצ"ל   שס   9.14%   59,603
ישראל ביתנו בראשות אביגדור ליברמן   ל   9.00%   58,699
יהדות התורה והשבת אגודת ישראל - דגל התורה   ג   6.79%   44,271
ימינה בראשות איילת שקד הבית היהודי-האיחוד הלאומי-הימין החדש   טב   6.09%   39,746
העבודה - גשר בראשות עמיר פרץ ואורלי לוי אבקסיס   אמת   4.91%   32,042
That's about 20% of the actual vote...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 10:01:56 PM
That's about 20% of the actual vote...
Was actually 10%. 20% is in now.


6,394,030   1,179,824   18.45%   1,173,129   6,695
שם הרשימה   אותיות הרשימה   אחוז קולות הרשימה
מסה"כ הקולות הכשרים   מספר הקולות הכשרים לרשימה
הליכוד בהנהגת בנימין נתניהו לראשות הממשלה   מחל   29.19%   342,471
כחול לבן - בראשות בני גנץ ויאיר לפיד   פה   24.38%   286,028
התאחדות הספרדים שומרי התורה תנועתו של מרן הרב עובדיה יוסף זצ"ל   שס   8.98%   105,364
ישראל ביתנו בראשות אביגדור ליברמן   ל   8.22%   96,385
יהדות התורה והשבת אגודת ישראל - דגל התורה   ג   7.59%   89,045
ימינה בראשות איילת שקד הבית היהודי-האיחוד הלאומי-הימין החדש   טב   7.08%   83,098
העבודה - גשר בראשות עמיר פרץ ואורלי לוי אבקסיס   אמת   4.97%   58,350
המחנה הדמוקרטי בהנהגת הורוביץ, שפיר וברק   מרצ   3.83%   44,988

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 17, 2019, 10:05:20 PM
IMHO the big mistake of Likud and possibly even Shas and UTJ is in not championing for civil issues of the Arab population. There are plenty of decent Arabs in the country, and one of the reasons for the traditionally low turnout in the Arab sector is that the Arab parties are all extreme left, and care more about Palestinians than of real civil issues that matter to the Israeli population. In the past (before Deri went to jail, IINM) Shas managed to get some nice votes amongst Arabs.


Like the dems ignoring blue collar voters absolutely. DSo many votes went to trump because middle America want jobs, not LGBT stuff. Im sure its the same wit Arab voters.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on September 17, 2019, 10:36:00 PM
Was actually 10%. 20% is in now.
20 % of actual votes or of eligible voters?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on September 17, 2019, 10:38:29 PM
20 % of actual votes or of eligible voters?
Of votes
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 17, 2019, 11:14:06 PM
So who won?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 11:15:25 PM
So who won?
No clear winner yet. Though there seem to be some clear losers.

United Arab Party seems to have done exceptionally well.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 17, 2019, 11:16:09 PM
United Arab Party seems to have done exceptionally well.
Say what?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 17, 2019, 11:20:25 PM
Say what?
Exactly that. It is a union between 4 Arab parties that have little in common other than being Arab. Traditionally Arab turnout is low, because the general Arab population feels that the Arab parties don't really represent their issues, but a rather busy with regional and foreign policy issue (read: supporting Israel's Arab enemies such as Syria). However this time around it seems like Arab turnout was close to 50%.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: grodnoking on September 17, 2019, 11:31:05 PM
At 6.07 a.m., 1,912,015 votes had been counted – or 29.90% of the casted ballots.

The Central Election Committee published the first results based on counted votes. At 6.07 a.m., 1,912,015 votes had been counted – or 29.90% of the casted ballots.

According to the results, Likud received 27.78% of the votes, followed by Blue and White with 25.94%, Shas with 8.72%, Yisrael Beytenu with 7.68%, UTJ with 8.68% Yamina with 6.75%, Labor with 5.02%, the Democratic Union with 4,43%, the Joint Union with 1,89% and Otzma Yehudit with 2.26%.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 17, 2019, 11:54:18 PM
Israel’s Channel 12 says it has received reports from sources in the Central Elections Committee, which reflect around 85% of the national vote.

The station says that according to those unofficial results, Netanyahu’s Likud and Gantz’s Blue and White are tied at 32 seats and that including minor parties, the right-wing bloc has a total of 56 seats, the centre-left has 55 and Liberman has 9.

Channel 12 says its sources tell it that a majority of votes have already been counted, but due to increased scrutiny, the CEC is doing recounts in order to ensure the information it puts out is accurate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 18, 2019, 02:37:20 AM
Shaked the biggest loser again. I'm actually shocked

3 paths to a coalition
1. Likud, yamina, chareidim, labor
2. Likud + blue/white with a rotation for PM? Who goes first? Can netanyahu even sit with gantz?
3. Blue white, Arabs, labor, Barak and Lieberman. What a disaster. Any chance that government lasts longer than six months?
Or round 3

Where do we go from here?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 18, 2019, 03:01:25 AM
Is Lieberman really the big winner? He can't sit with the right. He (presumably) can't sit with the left. And they don't need him for a unity government. What am I missing?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on September 18, 2019, 06:40:43 AM
Is Lieberman really the big winner? He can't sit with the right. He (presumably) can't sit with the left. And they don't need him for a unity government. What am I missing?
Seems like he only wanted to ruin bibi, and it seems like there’s a chance that might happen. Blue and white might sit with likud, if bibi isn’t PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ~King Lake~ on September 18, 2019, 07:44:56 AM
Seems like he only wanted to ruin bibi, and it seems like there’s a chance that might happen. Blue and white might sit with likud, if bibi isn’t PM
I can't see Bibi sitting in kneset without being PM/under gantz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: mgarfin on September 18, 2019, 07:48:06 AM
Chabad seems to have added a mass amount to utj
https://mobile.kikar.co.il/abroad/article/331124
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 08:34:13 AM
Can't forget this important tidbit.
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1032674

I guess I am not the only one that thinks so.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 08:45:34 AM
Exactly that. It is a union between 4 Arab parties that have little in common other than being Arab. Traditionally Arab turnout is low, because the general Arab population feels that the Arab parties don't really represent their issues, but a rather busy with regional and foreign policy issue (read: supporting Israel's Arab enemies such as Syria). However this time around it seems like Arab turnout was close to 50%.

http://econoblog.co.il/רעמ-תעל-בלד-חדש-דעם-מדריך-למצביע-המבו/

Try Google translate. Maybe it will produce something comprehensible. If it doesn't, I will try to summarize when have some time. Some of the comments seem to address inaccuracies.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 18, 2019, 08:51:25 AM
Shaked the biggest loser again. I'm actually shocked

3 paths to a coalition
1. Likud, yamina, chareidim, labor
2. Likud + blue/white with a rotation for PM? Who goes first? Can netanyahu even sit with gantz?
3. Blue white, Arabs, labor, Barak and Lieberman. What a disaster. Any chance that government lasts longer than six months?
Or round 3

Where do we go from here?

1. Do we really think that a neutered Labor would go into a coalition with Bibi?
2. If this happens, I suspect that one (or both) of these two things happens - a) Bibi's coalition deal will preclude him from being prosecuted even while he's not PM b) He'll get the first 1.5-2 years, and then 1 or 2 months shy find a way to force a new election

Is Lieberman really the big winner? He can't sit with the right. He (presumably) can't sit with the left. And they don't need him for a unity government. What am I missing?

Lieberman is in a weird position... what is the lesser of two evils for him - joining with Bibi or joining with the Arab List? If Gantz/Bibi want full control, they need to make a deal with him. But he himself is pushing for a Unity Government, which pretty much Gantz and Bibi can do on their own, and show him the door.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 18, 2019, 08:54:44 AM
If labor would be ready to go into coalition they wouldve done it last election already

UTJ/Shas are for sure not in the best position right now
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 08:56:16 AM
If labor would be ready to go into coalition they wouldve done it last election already

UTJ/Shas are for sure not in the best position right now
Labor is a different party now.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 18, 2019, 09:17:43 AM
If labor would be ready to go into coalition they wouldve done it last election already
I'm not sure that's a fair argument. Someone needs to blink. The country won't stand for another election.
Quote
UTJ/Shas are for sure not in the best position right now
It's crazy - they did as well as could have been expected and yet they still may get frozen out. I guess we'll see if the rabbonim's dire warnings come to be
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 11:09:19 AM
https://m.ynet.co.il/Articles/5591778
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 18, 2019, 11:11:18 AM
Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 11:19:48 AM
Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?
Because he can't.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 18, 2019, 11:22:00 AM
Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?

... b/c I think Lieberman is more likely to cave into Bibi's demands than sit in a government with the Arabs
It's crazy - they did as well as could have been expected and yet they still may get frozen out. I guess we'll see if the rabbonim's dire warnings come to be

Regarding Shas/UTJ - again everyone is digging in their heels.
https://m.ynet.co.il/Articles/5591778

 In the lede in to this article it quote R' Litzman as saying - ליצמן: "לא יודע מי זה ליברמן. מוכן לשבת איתו אם הוא יניח תפילין וישמור שבת" - "I'll only meet with Lieberman when he puts on tefilin and keeps shabbos".

One interesting thing to note - based on demographics alone, within the next 10 years the Charedi bloc can easily get to 25 seats - just on demographics alone. From that point, it would be hard to form any government without them.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 18, 2019, 11:55:46 AM
One interesting thing to note - based on demographics alone, within the next 10 years the Charedi bloc can easily get to 25 seats - just on demographics alone. From that point, it would be hard to form any government without them.
+1 In the last few years they went up 2 seats   and so did shas
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 12:20:13 PM
Brilliant first move. It's not B&W vs Likud, it's now B&W vs Right Wing Bloc.

?s=21
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 18, 2019, 02:17:28 PM
+1 In the last few years they went up 2 seats   and so did shas

Yes - but I believe that with the large Charedi Birth Rate and both the death of the true Israeli Left and the below replacement birthrates of the Secular community, They will get a big jump in the next decade or two.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: mercaz1 on September 18, 2019, 02:21:21 PM
so will the arabs as they also have a high birthrate
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 18, 2019, 02:22:56 PM
Brilliant first move. It's not B&W vs Likud, it's now B&W vs Right Wing Bloc.

?s=21

It is a good move - that will increase the chances of a stalemate.

Peretz has said he won't sit with him. He still needs either Gantz or Lieberman to complete the the coalition. Lieberman will dig in on demands that this coalition can't meet. Gantz will only join in if he gets to share power.

Who else can join with him?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: BP16 on September 18, 2019, 02:24:13 PM
Labor is a different party now.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/269108
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 02:28:30 PM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/269108
BTDT.

Peretz has history.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amir_Peretz

Quote
He opposed Ehud Barak's decision to enter a coalition government headed by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu. In December 2012, he left the Labor Party to join Tzipi Livni's new Hatnuah party. As a result, he resigned from the Knesset, and was replaced by Yoram Marciano.

He was re-elected to the Knesset on the Hatnuah list in the 2013 elections, and was appointed Minister of Environmental Protection.

The only thing that changed is his shaving off his mustache.

This is how I see the playbook potentially unfolding:

Mandelblit holds hearing with Netanyahu, following which it is determined that there aren't sufficient grounds for an indictment, which gives a whole bunch of people (primary amongst them Peretz & Co) an explanation as to why they will join Netanyahu, as they said they won't join him as long as there's a pending indictment. Once there's no pending indictment, they can join.

This might also signal the breakup and demise of B&W whose sole raison d'๊tre is anti Bibi (ostensibly due to corruption).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 03:02:05 PM
https://www.inn.co.il/News/News.aspx/413349

This guy never minces words.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on September 18, 2019, 03:40:33 PM
Peretz has said he won't sit with him. He still needs either Gantz or Lieberman to complete the the coalition. Lieberman will dig in on demands that this coalition can't meet. Gantz will only join in if he gets to share power.

Who else can join with him?

What does Labor stand for? If they are focused on economic issues then Bibi can throw money at them to join the coalition, but if they are focused on the "peace process" I don't see how they can sit with the right wing parties.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 04:05:32 PM
THIS IS PRICELESS!!!!

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 18, 2019, 05:21:28 PM
IBG is an old friend, running alone tough wasted 75,301 votes so far.  Those votes to yamina / shas  likud etc would easily amount to 4-5 extra seats
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 18, 2019, 05:30:52 PM
IBG is an old friend, running alone tough wasted 75,301 votes so far.  Those votes to yamina / shas  likud etc would easily amount to 4-5 extra seats
How is that worth 4-5 extra seats? The smallest party that made it in has 173k so far and 5 seats. At best, it's 3 seats divided between those parties. More likely that some of those voters would either stay home or vote for a different party that isn't making it in. I think it's a cost of 1-2 seats maximum.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 05:40:46 PM
How is that worth 4-5 extra seats? The smallest party that made it in has 173k so far and 5 seats. At best, it's 3 seats divided between those parties. More likely that some of those voters would either stay home or vote for a different party that isn't making it in. I think it's a cost of 1-2 seats maximum.

Exactly.

IBG would have been fun to see in the Knesset, but he acted like a total A*****e in this round. It was obvious that he has no chance of getting in AND EVERYONE WHO CARED TO THINK ABOUT IT, KNEW IT. He should have swallowed his pride and accepted whatever Yemina offered him. He might have gotten in and might have not, but wouldn't have wasted so many votes.

https://www.inn.co.il/News/News.aspx/413349

This guy never minces words.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on September 18, 2019, 07:05:51 PM
@kolhaolam was reporting that the blue and white faction has 56 seats. Is that’s including the Arabs? Have they ever sat in a government before? Would they do it just to ruin Bibi?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 18, 2019, 07:07:34 PM
@kolhaolam was reporting that the blue and white faction has 56 seats. Is that’s including the Arabs? Have they ever sat in a government before? Would they do it just to ruin Bibi?
yes, no, maybe but unlikely.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 18, 2019, 09:44:17 PM
Here's a reason why Netanyahu wouldn't form a unity government:

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 19, 2019, 12:01:31 AM
How is that worth 4-5 extra seats? The smallest party that made it in has 173k so far and 5 seats. At best, it's 3 seats divided between those parties. More likely that some of those voters would either stay home or vote for a different party that isn't making it in. I think it's a cost of 1-2 seats maximum.

It can round things up. I.e. like top up some votes on other parties that would have carried over 4-5 seats.

I'm just speculating... It's also possible that some of otzama voter's may not have voted at all had they run with yamina.

But yes even if he cost the right 3 seats, that is huge!!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on September 19, 2019, 12:14:59 AM
It can round things up. I.e. like top up some votes on other parties that would have carried over 4-5 seats.

I'm just speculating... It's also possible that some of otzama voter's may not have voted at all had they run with yamina.

But yes even if he cost the right 3 seats, that is huge!!
Any reason they couldn't make the same leftover votes pact some on the left (I think) made? Isn't that a win-win situation?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on September 19, 2019, 12:30:34 AM
Here's a reason why Netanyahu wouldn't form a unity government:


http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/269126

Quote
Asked if Joint List chairman Ayman Odeh will head the opposition, Tibi replied, “The law does not say that the head of the largest party in the opposition automatically becomes the leader of the opposition, but rather that any MK whom most of the MKs in the opposition recommend (will be the chairman of the opposition). An Arab MK will not be allowed to be the chairman of the opposition, so I tell you - this is a utopia.”
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 12:51:41 AM
Any reason they couldn't make the same leftover votes pact some on the left (I think) made? Isn't that a win-win situation?

Leftover pact only works of both sides of the pact get in. Bigger question is why they couldn't create a unified front/bloc like the Arabs did!?


רבי יוסי ממלחיא ורבי יהושע דסכנין בשם רבי לוי אמרו: מצינו תינוקות בימי דוד, עד שלא טעמו טעם חטא - היו יודעין לדרוש את התורה מ"ט פנים טמא ומ"ט פנים טהור, והוה דוד מצלי עליהון. הדא הוא שדוד אומר 'אתה ה' תשמרם' - אתה ה' נטר אורייתהון בלבהון. 'תנצרם מן הדור זו לעולם' - מן הדור ההוא שהוא חייב כליה.

אחר כל השבח הזה, יוצאין למלחמה ונופלין?!

אלא ע"י שהיו בהם דלטורין היו נופלין.

....

אבל דורו של אחאב - כולן עובדי עבודת כוכבים היו, ועל ידי שלא היו בהן דילטורין - היו יוצאין למלחמה ונוצחין.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 08:49:00 AM
Unofficial results:
B&W 33
Likud 31
Arabs 13
Shas 9
Lieberman 8
UTJ 8
Yemina 7
Labor 6
Democratic Camp 5
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 19, 2019, 08:53:31 AM
I thought our elections were messed up. This has my head spinning.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 19, 2019, 09:11:58 AM
I thought our elections were messed up. This has my head spinning.

I love trying to explain to colleagues that even though the election is over - it's far from over
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 19, 2019, 09:17:44 AM
I love trying to explain to colleagues that even though the election is over - it's far from over
So no majority means yet another election? WOW could you imagine if we had that here? We would run out of Kool-Aid.  :)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gingyguy on September 19, 2019, 09:20:13 AM
So no majority means yet another election? WOW could you imagine if we had that here? We would run out of Kool-Aid.  :)
Pretty much the only other option is a unity government with netanyahu and gantz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 19, 2019, 09:21:26 AM
Pretty much the only other option is a unity government with netanyahu and gantz
Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 19, 2019, 09:21:34 AM
Is lieberman going to say gantz should be PM?
or is he not going to say anyone?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gingyguy on September 19, 2019, 09:23:25 AM
Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?
netanyahu is right  gantz is center left . only question is which other parties will also get involved
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: dealfinder11 on September 19, 2019, 09:40:06 AM
Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?

It's a bit complex.

https://israelpolicyforum.cmail19.com/t/ViewEmail/i/87D3727774E9325B2540EF23F30FEDED/9F954F7AC0ACC4FABA4AF9908B8D85ED
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: stooges44 on September 19, 2019, 10:57:44 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/israel-steps-back-two-brinks/598384/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 19, 2019, 10:59:06 AM
So no majority means yet another election? WOW could you imagine if we had that here? We would run out of Kool-Aid.  :)

Not quite - essentially the President of the country will recommend to one of the two candidates to form a government - for a bunch of reasons, it's likely that he will turn to Bibi to do that - so he has a few weeks to broker a deal.

Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?

That's definitely complicated, but on a very simplistic level (I'm sure many will argue with these points):

The Right:
Likud - Bibi's party, the 'standard' right-wing party. Politically conservative, and religiously neutral/right leaning.
Shas - Sefardic Religious party - politically right, religiously right. Primary leadership and constituents are jews from Africa/France/Middle East Descent
UTJ (United Torah Judaism) - politically right, religiously right. Primary leadership and constituents are jews from Central/Northern European and American Descent
Yemina - a smaller politically right and religiously right-leaning party who's leaders (Shaked and Bennett) broke away from Likud

The "Center":
Blue and White - led by Gantz. This is a coalition of 3 parties, including the centrist Yesh Atid

Jewish Home - Lieberman's party - they are politically conservative, but somewhat anti-religious (for example, they are in favor of ending the draft exemptions for Charedim, but toe a hard line on the Palestinians, Iran, etc.) They are the outlier, because he politically disagrees with the left, and religiously with the right.

The Left (All politically left, and most are (at least) left-leaning when it comes to religion)
Joint Arab List - This is 4 smaller parties that generally represent that arab population and have Israeli Arab members of knesset. (Israeli Arab = Muslim or Christian Arabs that live within the 1967 borders and have full citizenship).
Labor - The party of Shimon Peres and Yitzchak Rabin, that's fallen off of the map. The old guard Israeli Left
Democratic Camp  - A coalition of parties that are the old-school Israeli "Extreme Left" - including Meretz.






[/quote]
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shwarmabob on September 19, 2019, 11:18:15 AM
Shas - Sefardic Religious party - politically right, religiously right. Primary leadership and constituents are jews from Africa/France/Middle East Descent
minor correction: Shas played a central role in passing the Oslo Accords, so I wouldn't call them right wing. They will go with whoever will give them some silver and postpone their periodic jail stints.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 11:21:31 AM
minor correction: Shas played a central role in passing the Oslo Accords, so I wouldn't call them right wing. They will go with whoever will give them some silver and postpone their periodic jail stints.

Though most of their voters are right wing. And they clearly positioned themselves as right wing for election purposes.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 19, 2019, 12:06:02 PM
Netanyahu signed an agreement with Yamina, Shas, UTJ to only negotiate as a block. Now he's calling for you a unity goverment with Gantz, that conveniently Netanyahu will lead (as his block now has 55, in the purely theoretical sense).
Gantz responded that this is political spin and Netanyahu has decided to go to 3rd elections and is trying to (more accurately, has successfully) shift the blame on B&W

So...basically Bibi has Gantz by the you know where
Either Right + B&W with Bibi as PM
Or Gantz + labor + barak + Arabs + Liberman

Or...Round 3 (most likely)

Who's surprised that the seasoned Bibi has outflanked the newcomer in Gantz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 19, 2019, 12:26:00 PM
Netanyahu signed an agreement with Yamina, Shas, UTJ to only negotiate as a block. Now he's calling for you a unity goverment with Gantz, that conveniently Netanyahu will lead (as his block now has 55, in the purely theoretical sense).
Gantz responded that this is political spin and Netanyahu has decided to go to 3rd elections and is trying to (more accurately, has successfully) shift the blame on B&W

So...basically Bibi has Gantz by the you know where
Either Right + B&W with Bibi as PM
Or Gantz + labor + barak + Arabs + Liberman

Or...Round 3 (most likely)

Who's surprised that the seasoned Bibi has outflanked the newcomer in Gantz

How would round 3 produce results that aren't deadlocked?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 19, 2019, 12:31:14 PM
Either
1. Everyone blames <insert politician here> for going to 3rd elections and punishes him for that
2. They raise the threshold to 5% (though I'm not sure that would really make a difference)
3. Bibi gets indicted
4. There is tremendous apathy from all sectors other than the chareidim who win a straight majority and install a medinat halacha
5. It won't, but at least people get an extra day at the beach
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 19, 2019, 12:42:03 PM
How would round 3 produce results that aren't deadlocked?

What's the definition of insanity again? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results? :)

I don't think anyone wants a third election, but everyone is being stubborn.

I think logically, Bibi's best bet is to work with one of Gantz/Lapid/Ya'alon to split Blue and White, and take their seats to his coalition, but I don't think any of them want to do that. I also don't know the Israeli system well enough to know if that's even possible - is it?



Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 19, 2019, 12:44:08 PM
It's technically possible. Though I don't think very likely. One hates Bibi more than the next. And what could he possibly offer them
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 12:46:58 PM
Netanyahu signed an agreement with Yamina, Shas, UTJ to only negotiate as a block. Now he's calling for you a unity goverment with Gantz, that conveniently Netanyahu will lead (as his block now has 55, in the purely theoretical sense).
Gantz responded that this is political spin and Netanyahu has decided to go to 3rd elections and is trying to (more accurately, has successfully) shift the blame on B&W

So...basically Bibi has Gantz by the you know where
Either Right + B&W with Bibi as PM
Or Gantz + labor + barak + Arabs + Liberman

Or...Round 3 (most likely)

Who's surprised that the seasoned Bibi has outflanked the newcomer in Gantz

We need to wait for final results (and possibly for Bibi's hearing).

Right now it looks like B&W has 2 more seats than Likud, as does the "Center-Left" vs "Right", which creates the perception that Gantz should be the leader. If Bibi's camp stands strong and united, Gantz has no path to form a government without Bibi's camp. Possible scenario: President gives Gantz first chance, he tries and tries and fails. In the interim, Bibi has his hearing, and the indictment is cancelled, that opens up more possibilities. However, even in such a scenario, Netanyahu will be viewed unfavorably (though there's an overwhelming majority that seems to agree that he's more fit for the job).

Another possible scenario: Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing. However, this scenario will have to eliminate people or positions that are hardline and exclusive. i.e. Lapid.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 12:48:45 PM
None of this mess is unprecedented in parliamentary systems. Just look at recent history Greece, Belgium, Italy and possibly others (look at what's going on in the UK, the oldest parliamentary system out there).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 19, 2019, 12:49:54 PM
It's technically possible. Though I don't think very likely. One hates Bibi more than the next. And what could he possibly offer them

Reminiscent of the old Golda Meir Line:
"We'll only a have a government when Lieberman or Gantz loves being in power more than they hate Bibi"

Completely unrelated. I read an article the other day on Globes (which unfortunately I can't seem to find) which was interviewing a Cafe owner about election day. He pointed out that even though he gets more customers than he would on a normal weekday, the traffic inflow doesn't make up for the double-time he needs to pay his employees for working on a holiday. So each election day he's operating at a loss.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 19, 2019, 12:54:21 PM
We need to wait for final results (and possibly for Bibi's hearing).

Right now it looks like B&W has 2 more seats than Likud, as does the "Center-Left" vs "Right", which creates the perception that Gantz should be the leader. If Bibi's camp stands strong and united, Gantz has no path to form a government without Bibi's camp. Possible scenario: President gives Gantz first chance, he tries and tries and fails. In the interim, Bibi has his hearing, and the indictment is cancelled, that opens up more possibilities. However, even in such a scenario, Netanyahu will be viewed unfavorably (though there's an overwhelming majority that seems to agree that he's more fit for the job).

Another possible scenario: Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing. However, this scenario will have to eliminate people or positions that are hardline and exclusive. i.e. Lapid.

That's a great analysis @ExGingi

I imagine (like you suggest) for a unity govt. to exist, it will either need to exclude some of Bibi's current 55, or have non-starters - for example, the ending the draft exemption is a non-starter. If Bibi shares the PM with Gantz, it will either be post his accquital, or extend him non-prosecution until the government is re-done.

One other weird but plausible solution:
- Bibi negotiates a national unity government, where he is PM for the first 18-24 months. And then 1 month before the switch, he gets enough people to vote no-confidence and has another election - of course he spends those 18 months moving people around to different parties so we don't have this again.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 19, 2019, 03:58:46 PM
We need to wait for final results (and possibly for Bibi's hearing).

Right now it looks like B&W has 2 more seats than Likud, as does the "Center-Left" vs "Right", which creates the perception that Gantz should be the leader. If Bibi's camp stands strong and united, Gantz has no path to form a government without Bibi's camp. Possible scenario: President gives Gantz first chance, he tries and tries and fails. In the interim, Bibi has his hearing, and the indictment is cancelled, that opens up more possibilities. However, even in such a scenario, Netanyahu will be viewed unfavorably (though there's an overwhelming majority that seems to agree that he's more fit for the job).

Another possible scenario: Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing. However, this scenario will have to eliminate people or positions that are hardline and exclusive. i.e. Lapid.
I see no way that Rivlin tasks Gantz with creating a coalition if he has no path to creating one
There is no way Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing - one guy has to be the prime minister. If it's just Likud and B&W, there is no way Bibi is the PM, he has less mandates. And there is NO way that Bibi sits under Gantz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: stooges44 on September 19, 2019, 04:30:18 PM


I need to point out a basic fact about the election results which the US media, in particular, is missing.

Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו did not lose and בני גנץ - Benny Gantz didn't win. Gantz cannot form a government under any circumstances. He cannot build a majority coalition.

By forming a unified political bloc of 55 Knesset members with the Likud's satellite parties, Netanyahu has created a situation where he is the only possible prime minister. Either the Blue and White Party -- or one of its factions -- joins him, or Amir Peretz and Orly Levy bring the Labor party in, or Israel goes to new elections. Those are the only options.

In other words, it's either going to be Netanyahu or elections. It's up to Gantz, and Peretz.

I'll say more. The balance of power is still very much on the Right. The Right has 55 seats. The Left has 44. Liberman is nothing but a Bibi hater. And the Arab parties are so extreme that they cannot be considered for any governing coalition.

A word about the exclusion of the Arab party from the coalition math.

Lest anyone be tempted to believe the Washington Post's attempt to claim Israel is racist because Israelis don't want to share power with the Arab parties, the fact is that there is not one Arab party that accepts Israel's right to exist. There were Arab politicians elected yesterday that have written odes to terrorist murderers on the Facebook pages. Arab lawmakers were elected that have met with terror kingpins. Arab lawmakers routinely support the Palestinian war against Israel and express support for Hamas.

It is not racist for Israelis not to want Hamas supporters and champions of terrorist murderers in the Israeli government or receiving security briefings from the military and intelligence services. It is rational.

The deadlock in Israel is electoral, not ideological. Liberman's defection from the Right has denied it a governing majority. But it is still very much the majority in Israel. And the vast majority of Jewish lawmakers in the Knesset support applying Israeli law over the Jordan Valley as Netanyahu suggested. A large majority (55-44) of Jewish lawmakers also support applying Israeli law to other parts of Judea and Samaria.

Netanyahu is the only person capable of forming a government. It remains to be seen if that will happen, but Gantz cannot form a government. And he is slowly coming to terms with this unalterable reality.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on September 19, 2019, 05:02:20 PM


I'll say more. The balance of power is still very much on the Right. The Right has 55 seats.

The truth is that the "real" left (at least when it comes to Foreign policy) has a grand total of 11 seats (or 24 if you count the Arab).

This wasn't a Left vs Right election, it was a Pro Bibi vs Anti and Pro-Yiddishkeit vs Anti election.

 If one thing is clear from this election, it's that the two state solution is dead...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 19, 2019, 05:10:12 PM
@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 05:49:37 PM
@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater an ambitious opporunist extraordinaire!

FTFY
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: stooges44 on September 19, 2019, 06:27:29 PM
@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater

You do know I just c/p what she said, I did that because most don't have fb.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 19, 2019, 08:22:36 PM
Leftover pact only works of both sides of the pact get in. Bigger question is why they couldn't create a unified front/bloc like the Arabs did!?


רבי יוסי ממלחיא ורבי יהושע דסכנין בשם רבי לוי אמרו: מצינו תינוקות בימי דוד, עד שלא טעמו טעם חטא - היו יודעין לדרוש את התורה מ"ט פנים טמא ומ"ט פנים טהור, והוה דוד מצלי עליהון. הדא הוא שדוד אומר 'אתה ה' תשמרם' - אתה ה' נטר אורייתהון בלבהון. 'תנצרם מן הדור זו לעולם' - מן הדור ההוא שהוא חייב כליה.

אחר כל השבח הזה, יוצאין למלחמה ונופלין?!

אלא ע"י שהיו בהם דלטורין היו נופלין.

....

אבל דורו של אחאב - כולן עובדי עבודת כוכבים היו, ועל ידי שלא היו בהן דילטורין - היו יוצאין למלחמה ונוצחין.

yamina is not vry loved on the right. They are fool of a$$ kissers and spineless cowards.. still, better than wasting even 3 seats
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on September 19, 2019, 09:01:20 PM
They are fool of a$$ kissers and spineless cowards..
It is hard to keep these threads separate with so much in common.  :)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Definitions on September 19, 2019, 10:14:26 PM
I don't know the Israeli election process. Assuming a government can't be formed whatever that means. What exactly do they think will change with the new elections? Will people change what they originally voted for?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yammer on September 19, 2019, 10:57:51 PM


1. Do we really think that a neutered Labor would go into a coalition with Bibi?
2. If this happens, I suspect that one (or both) of these two things happens - a) Bibi's coalition deal will preclude him from being prosecuted even while he's not PM b) He'll get the first 1.5-2 years, and then 1 or 2 months shy find a way to force a new election

Lieberman is in a weird position... what is the lesser of two evils for him - joining with Bibi or joining with the Arab List? If Gantz/Bibi want full control, they need to make a deal with him. But he himself is pushing for a Unity Government, which pretty much Gantz and Bibi can do on their own, and show him the door.

Or Bibi gets indicted and Ganz is PM...

Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?

Impossible for the Arabs to sit in a Govt. First attack on Gaza and they threaten to bolt.

so will the arabs as they also have a high birthrate

They won't be part of Israel...your forgetting Trump's Deal of the Century...

BTDT.

Peretz has history.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amir_Peretz

The only thing that changed is his shaving off his mustache.

This is how I see the playbook potentially unfolding:

Mandelblit holds hearing with Netanyahu, following which it is determined that there aren't sufficient grounds for an indictment, which gives a whole bunch of people (primary amongst them Peretz & Co) an explanation as to why they will join Netanyahu, as they said they won't join him as long as there's a pending indictment. Once there's no pending indictment, they can join.

This might also signal the breakup and demise of B&W whose sole raison d'๊tre is anti Bibi (ostensibly due to corruption).

Or he gets indicted.

Why does everyone seem to think that he's innocent? Israel has quite a history with indicting the highest officials

How would round 3 produce results that aren't deadlocked?

I think there will be quite a few changes as ppl are exasperated. Less smaller parties and more mergers, so votes don't get lost.

I see no way that Rivlin tasks Gantz with creating a coalition if he has no path to creating one
There is no way Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing - one guy has to be the prime minister. If it's just Likud and B&W, there is no way Bibi is the PM, he has less mandates. And there is NO way that Bibi sits under Gantz

Disagree.

Rivlin needs to prove that he's unbiased. He gives Ganz a shot ( which he thinks that he will fail ) and only then is there actually a chance that Ganz caves in to Bibi.

@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater

I actually didn't understand how his supporters stand for his hatred to Charedim instead of using his position to maximize for them ( could've gotten literally everything) . But I've come to understand that they have issues with Gerus/Marriage etc. That's a real cause to his base to support him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 19, 2019, 11:23:28 PM
Why does everyone seem to think that he's innocent? Israel has quite a history with indicting the highest officials

Because Bibi is smarter than that. And the allegations are nonsense. If Bibi should be indicted, Lapid did much worse.

 


Rivlin needs to prove that he's unbiased. He gives Ganz a shot ( which he thinks that he will fail ) and only then is there actually a chance that Ganz caves in to Bibi.
Rivlin and Netanyahu are old foes. No one suspects Rivlin of any favoritism towards Netanyahu. As a matter of fact, while in the Knesset he was considered a right wing hawk. As soon as he became president, he began pandering to the left wing.

I actually didn't understand how his supporters stand for his hatred to Charedim instead of using his position to maximize for them ( could've gotten literally everything) . But I've come to understand that they have issues with Gerus/Marriage etc. That's a real cause to his base to support him.

Lieberman doesn't hate Charedim. For years Deri was one of his best buddies. He is a shrewd opportunist who identified a wave he could ride.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 19, 2019, 11:52:34 PM
Am I crazy for believing that the only option besides going for round 3 is right wing + labor?

Yes it will have to go through very complicated negotiations but at the end they will figure it out.

And if you're worried how long such government can hold, it can't, but what will happen is, blue and white while being in the minority since Gantz and Lapid have 0 in common besides trying to being down Netanyahu, once they sit in the minority and their task of bringing down Netanyahu is over they will kill each other and the party will become broken and some center rights will jump over to the right wing and keep the government alive.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 12:28:40 AM
Am I crazy for believing that the only option besides going for round 3 is right wing + labor?

Yes it will have to go through very complicated negotiations but at the end they will figure it out.

And if you're worried how long such government can hold, it can't, but what will happen is, blue and white while being in the minority since Gantz and Lapid have 0 in common besides trying to being down Netanyahu, once they sit in the minority and their task of bringing down Netanyahu is over they will kill each other and the party will become broken and some center rights will jump over to the right wing and keep the government alive.

Has been said before in different words.

https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1032674

I guess I am not the only one that thinks so.

However, the game board is a little different at this stage.

Netanyahu can simply wait it out, allowing Gantz to make a fool of himself a second time around (first time was in April), trying to no avail to form a government. In the interim Mandelblit holds the hearing and the threat of indictment is dropped, and all of the sudden the game board looks different yet again, but this time giving an advantage to Netanyahu.

BTW, all along Netanyahu is still the transitional PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yammer on September 20, 2019, 12:31:10 AM
Because Bibi is smarter than that. And the allegations are nonsense. If Bibi should be indicted, Lapid did much worse.

Rivlin and Netanyahu are old foes. No one suspects Rivlin of any favoritism towards Netanyahu. As a matter of fact, while in the Knesset he was considered a right wing hawk. As soon as he became president, he began pandering to the left wing.

Lieberman doesn't hate Charedim. For years Deri was one of his best buddies. He is a shrewd opportunist who identified a wave he could ride.

1. They can indict him even if it wasn't a crime....
2. Correct. Still might want to prove it.
3. About Leiberman. Not disagreeing. He's obviously an opportunist. But as an opportunist he would've taken a deal now and gotten everything from Bibi, instead of squatting it for Bibi/Charaidy bashing. Imagine UTJ/Shas in that position and they would squat such an opportunity. The community would have been fuming for not squeezing out concessions. He therefore picked a battle with Charaidim that resonates with his base.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on September 20, 2019, 01:22:20 AM
I’m not saying i personally favor this idea, but is it an option to somehow skip over Netanyahu and go to the number 2 in Likud? Than Leiberman would agree to be in the coalition... i think Leiberman is dying for that to happen, because this whole mess was caused by Lieberman trying to end Netanyahu’s career.
how would such a thing work? Would the Likud have to have internal elections? Could Rivlin on his own decide to give it to the number 2 in likud and skip over Netanyahu?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 01:26:58 AM
I’m not saying i personally favor this idea, but is it an option to somehow skip over Netanyahu and go to the number 2 in Likud? Than Leiberman would agree to be in the coalition... i think Leiberman is dying for that to happen, because this whole mess was caused by Lieberman trying to end Netanyahu’s career.
how would such a thing work? Would the Likud have to have internal elections? Could Rivlin on his own decide to give it to the number 2 in likud and skip over Netanyahu?
This ain't happening.

Technically Rivlin can assign the task of forming a govern to any MK. If he did something like this on his own, it would be a legitimate reason for a bona fide coup.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on September 20, 2019, 01:29:46 AM
This ain't happening.

Technically Rivlin can assign the task of forming a govern to any MK. If he did something like this on his own, it would be a legitimate reason for a bona fide coup.
Why not? It might be the only way to break to prevent another election
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 01:43:38 AM
Why not? It might be the only way to break to prevent another election

For the same reason the electoral college wouldn't elect someone other than what the general election indicated in the US.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 20, 2019, 03:08:39 AM
FTFY
Am opportunist has to have an end game to cash in his chips. He doesn't seem interested
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 20, 2019, 03:09:39 AM
This ain't happening.

Technically Rivlin can assign the task of forming a govern to any MK. If he did something like this on his own, it would be a legitimate reason for a bona fide coup.
Would only happen if it came from likud. And like @ExGingi said, that ain't happening
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 08:39:44 AM
Final, yet non-certified results published here:

https://www.kipa.co.il/userFiles/files/5bc54f1b8b755ad22efa441d5341f816.pdf
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 20, 2019, 08:58:52 AM
Final, yet not-yet certified results published here:

https://www.kipa.co.il/userFiles/files/5bc54f1b8b755ad22efa441d5341f816.pdf
Otzmah likely doesn't cross the threshold even if it's a 3 seat minimum.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 09:03:13 AM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/693461
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 20, 2019, 10:21:09 AM
I think Rivlin says I am not tasking anyone with creating the coalition until you children figure something out
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 20, 2019, 10:24:22 AM
Otzmah likely doesn't cross the threshold even if all of the invalid votes belong to it!.
FTFY

They'd still be about 1 seat short if you add all of the invalid ballots (~26k) + their ~85k
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 20, 2019, 10:27:00 AM
FTFY

They'd still be about 1 seat short if you add all of the invalid ballots (~26k) + their ~85k
Why so many invalid ballots?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 20, 2019, 10:27:40 AM
Nor would Otzmah make any difference even if all those votes went to right wing parties.

Would still be the same stalemate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 20, 2019, 10:31:26 AM
Nor would Otzmah make any difference even if all those votes went to right wing parties.

Would still be the same stalemate.
There's only 3 relevant people right now - bibi, gantz, and Lieberman.

One or more of them has to give something up. Bibi wants to be PM with immunity, Gantz said he won't sit with bibi, and Lieberman won't sit with Chareidim.

The alternative scenerio is 1 of the left wing parties joining, but I can't see it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 20, 2019, 10:53:01 AM
Nor would Otzmah make any difference even if all those votes went to right wing parties.

Would still be the same stalemate.

look at the results, Yamina 7 seats at 260.. then UTJ 8 seats at 268.. bibi 31 to Gantz 33 only sort 37k votes..

otzama 83k votes spread out to likud, yamina, shas etc would as I said, have been 4 seats +

New landscape likud 34, shas 10, utj 8, yamina 8 this 60.. just 1 short.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 20, 2019, 11:34:53 AM
look at the results, Yamina 7 seats at 260.. then UTJ 8 seats at 268.. bibi 31 to Gantz 33 only sort 37k votes..
otzama 83k votes spread out to likud, yamina, shas etc would as I said, have been 4 seats +
New landscape likud 34, shas 10, utj 8, yamina 8 this 60.. just 1 short.

I think your math is a little off. The right might have only gained 2-3 seats So bibi only goes to 57-58 from 55. Still the same stale mate
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 20, 2019, 12:07:11 PM
Some memes from WA:

(https://i.imgur.com/xcXFeJ1.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/dvplgrA.png)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 02:07:04 AM
https://m.news1.co.il/ArticlePage.aspx?docid=136472&subjectid=24

Interesting analysis, though I find his bottom line suggestion too far fetched.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 11:20:11 AM
https://news.walla.co.il/item/3314222

 Now Gantz is cornered.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 22, 2019, 11:54:16 AM
"if you choose not to decide you still have made a choice"
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 22, 2019, 12:09:24 PM
Now what?
Maybe...
I think Rivlin says I am not tasking anyone with creating the coalition until you children figure something out
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 22, 2019, 01:07:38 PM
I'm no expert, but is it time to switch to directly electing a PM and a party separately?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dawie on September 22, 2019, 01:19:54 PM
I'm no expert, but is it time to switch to directly electing a PM and a party separately?
they tried that years ago from '96 to '01
Not sure why they changed back
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 01:57:13 PM
https://m.ynet.co.il/Articles/5594264

It's become a hot potato at this point. No one wants to get the mandate first from the president (and he knows that, but might not have a choice at this point since a plurality of MK recommended Gantz, and he heads the largest party).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 02:05:03 PM
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/09/22/middleeast/israel-election-benjamin-netanyahu-future-intl/index.html

Here's a suggestion for Israeli politicians: let the Knesset vote on a law to hold new elections and bar Lieberman or anyone from his party in participating. If there's one thing EVERYONE across the political spectrum can agree upon at this point, is that Lieberman is a non-trust-worthy troublemaker (and possibly highly corrupt).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 22, 2019, 02:24:27 PM
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/09/22/middleeast/israel-election-benjamin-netanyahu-future-intl/index.html

Here's a suggestion for Israeli politicians: let the Knesset vote on a law to hold new elections and bar Lieberman or anyone from his party in participating. If there's one thing EVERYONE across the political spectrum can agree upon at this point, is that Lieberman is a non-trust-worthy troublemaker (and possibly highly corrupt).
Do you actually believe the things you write?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 02:29:02 PM
Do you actually believe the things you write?

Do I believe this suggestion is likely to happen? No!
Do I believe that there's a huge majority that would love to see it happen. Absolutely yes!
Do I believe there's a legal way to make it happen? Haven't given it too much thought to find a legal way for this to happen, but on the surface I can't think of a legal way for this to happen.
Do I think Israeli politicians turn to DDF for suggestions? Absolutely not!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Pad18 on September 22, 2019, 02:35:20 PM
Do I think Israeli politicians turn to DDF for suggestions? Absolutely not!

Lol
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 22, 2019, 03:19:38 PM
Do you actually believe the things you write?
#DDFShockJock
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 22, 2019, 03:48:40 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1788604/significant-development-joint-arab-list-recommends-gantz-to-form-government.html
Amazing they can't even get the facts correct in a simple article like this
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 22, 2019, 04:08:00 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1788604/significant-development-joint-arab-list-recommends-gantz-to-form-government.html
Amazing they can't even get the facts correct in a simple article like this
Why would this be different than any other article?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 22, 2019, 04:08:44 PM
they tried that years ago from '96 to '01
Not sure why they changed back
Anyone know why they changed it?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gingyguy on September 22, 2019, 04:12:34 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1788604/significant-development-joint-arab-list-recommends-gantz-to-form-government.html
Amazing they can't even get the facts correct in a simple article like this
lol , Nothing they write amazes me any more
just look at the like count on this post
Friends don't let friends fly spirit. (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=100670.msg2044086#msg2044086)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 06:08:28 PM
Anyone know why they changed it?

FWIW, per Wikipedia it resulted in a weaker PM as people might have voted for him and not his party.

Quote
חוק הבחירה הישירה הביא למצב בו רבים שקודם לחוק הצביעו למפלגתו של מי שרצו שיהיה ראש הממשלה (אחת המפלגות הגדולות), הצביעו בפתק הצהוב לראש הממשלה ובפתק השני הצביעו למפלגה אחרת ששיקפה יותר את השקפת עולמם או למפלגה שייצגה את המגזר שלהם. תוצאה זו גרמה להחלשת כוחו של ראש הממשלה הנבחר, שמצא את עצמו עומד בראש מפלגה קטנה יחסית. עובדה זו הייתה הגורם העיקרי להחזרת השיטה הקודמת של משטר פרלמנטרי טהור.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 22, 2019, 06:16:13 PM
FWIW, per Wikipedia it resulted in a weaker PM as people might have voted for him and not his party.

Perhaps, but it seems like a way out of this mess.
A unity government would be more feasible if PM was off the table.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 06:40:56 PM
Perhaps, but it seems like a way out of this mess.
A unity government would be more feasible if PM was off the table.
That seems logical, and was the reason for the initial enactment.

However, no system is perfect, and the pendulum swings.

The other problem is that deep down, people know that there is no 'solution' to the conflict with the "Palestinians", or with the Jihadists (of various flavors). So the geopolitical options range from a delusional (but rooted in aspirations) attitude of unilateral concessions and withdrawals (an interesting video of what might have been the last meeting between Shimon Peres and R' Ovadia Yosef, with the former trying to convince the latter to support one of his delusional solutions, has recently surfaced), through the pragmatic and long horizon approach of Netanyahu of managing the situation locally, while getting regional focus away from the "Palestinians", or better yet rejecting their issue as a pan-Arabian one, to the extreme Zionist attitude of forcefully crushing any "Palestinian" aspirations.

This has just brought about the so-called "center left" B&W party, that doesn't really offer much of an alternative to Netanyahu's methods (though with less experience and talent). They have folded into their ranks some people who are proposing slightly different geopolitical approaches, but once reality hits, they will be no different (other than likely not being able to withstand major pressure from outside).

There hasn't been one poll in which Netanyahu hasn't trounced Gantz (or anyone else) in being seen fit to lead the country.

Lieberman did identify the one issue that ostensibly does highlight differences of approach, which is the anti religious establishment and laws vs pro such laws. Unfortunately, I think UTJ and Shas didn't use a correct strategy in this area. While they did energize their base, I think they should have put a lot more effort in reaching out to people outside of their base, who wouldn't vote for them, but try to get them to reject the Lieberman/Lapid approach.

The bottom line is, that we can write and suggest whatever we want, but:

Do I think Israeli politicians turn to DDF for suggestions? Absolutely not!

All I do here is report things as I see them and offer my analysis and/or point of view. Some like to call that
#DDFShockJock

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 22, 2019, 07:59:38 PM
Rivlin and Netanyahu are old foes. No one suspects Rivlin of any favoritism towards Netanyahu. As a matter of fact, while in the Knesset he was considered a right wing hawk. As soon as he became president, he began pandering to the left wing.

https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/694195

Notice the last paragraph, they don't mince words as to how they see the Rivlin Netanyahu relationship.

Quote
לא מן הנמנע כי נשיא המדינה, המונע מתאוות נקם בראש הממשלה, ישקול מהו המעשה שהכי יפגע בנתניהו, להיות ראשון או שני, ועל פי זה יקבל את החלטתו. הנימוקים לכל החלטה הרי כבר ידועים מראש.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 23, 2019, 01:46:10 AM
https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-withholding-nomination-for-pm-liberman-to-meet-gantz/
Lieberman says they should flip a coin. Craziest thing is he's right

And this
“The Joint List are our enemies,” said Liberman. “Wherever they are, we will be on the other side.”
He's actually talking sense. What's going on?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on September 23, 2019, 01:50:30 AM
https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-withholding-nomination-for-pm-liberman-to-meet-gantz/
Lieberman says they should flip a coin. Craziest thing is he's right

And this
“The Joint List are our enemies,” said Liberman. “Wherever they are, we will be on the other side.”
He's actually talking sense. What's going on?
Why does a B&W/Likud government need Liberman?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 23, 2019, 02:39:13 AM
It doesn't, though larger coalitions are usually stronger (operative word being usually, don't think it applies here)
Would be really funny if they offer him nothing and he's still forced to join the coalition to avoid looking like a bigger fool
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 06:16:17 AM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/694277

Netanyahu gets 55 MK recommending vs Gantz 54. This gives Rivlin the OK to throw the hot potato at Netanyahu first.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 23, 2019, 07:16:34 AM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/694277

Netanyahu gets 55 MK recommending vs Gantz 54. This gives Rivlin the OK to throw the hot potato at Netanyahu first.
Lets see if he can pull it off or #NewElections  cant see him giving up and giving Gantz a turn to try
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 07:25:53 AM
Lets see if he can pull it off or #NewElections  cant see him giving up and giving Gantz a turn to try

IMHO the key is waiting until after the AG hearing, and coming out without an indictment.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 23, 2019, 07:28:03 AM
IMHO the key is waiting until after the AG hearing, and coming out without an indictment.
Bibi is scared of an indictment  if he wouldnt be scared he wouldnt push off the hearing
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 07:36:59 AM
Bibi is scared of an indictment  if he wouldnt be scared he wouldnt push off the hearing
-1
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 23, 2019, 07:41:27 AM
IMHO the key is waiting until after the AG hearing, and coming out without an indictment.
The odds of there not being an indictment are infinitesimally small. Not sure why you think that's a likely outcome.



Quote
“If you task Gantz with forming the government, we will not negotiate with him,” Shaked said. “We are committed to the head of the national camp, Prime Minister Netanyahu.

“I do want to tell you, Mr. President, that you may need to act like a kindergarten teacher and tell the other party leaders to stop the boycotts,” she added. “There are ideological boycotts and there are also personal boycotts. And it needs to stop, both the personal and the ideological boycotts, and to try and get to some form of unity government.
Do you think she realized how hypocritical that is?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on September 23, 2019, 09:42:48 AM
Perhaps, but it seems like a way out of this mess.
A unity government would be more feasible if PM was off the table.

You'd think that. But imagine you are the leader of the Party with the most seats and you lost the direct prime minister election. That would be a huge disincentive to work with the PM to form a unity coalition.

IIRC, prior to the experiment of the directly elected prime minister, Likud Labor would regularly get Mandates into the 40's  - because back then people felt voting for a party was essentially a proxy for voting for prime minister. Then after/during the direct election, people realized that it was probably just better to vote for the party that aligns with their political interests, and hope that they'll back the correct candidate for PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 23, 2019, 09:45:06 AM
I think rivlin should give gantz the first shot. Neither side has 61 pledges, gantz is slightly bigger, and it would prevent bibi from trying to call a 3rd election before gantz gets a change (again). Maybe gantz succeeds in breaking Likud, maybe he doesn't. But then if and when the stalemate continues, at least rivlin can say he tried.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on September 23, 2019, 10:03:58 AM
I think rivlin should give gantz the first shot. Neither side has 61 pledges, gantz is slightly bigger, and it would prevent bibi from trying to call a 3rd election before gantz gets a change (again). Maybe gantz succeeds in breaking Likud, maybe he doesn't. But then if and when the stalemate continues, at least rivlin can say he tried.
But Rivlin is a Likudnik
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 23, 2019, 10:16:06 AM
But Rivlin is a Likudnik
Who has a known dislike of bibi.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 23, 2019, 02:29:21 PM
This just shows her polar the parties are. Reminds me of when Holocaust survivers teamed up with oleh yarok.

Feiglin was a right wine champion became the weed champion.

Bibi has been good for the economy and security.

They talk about corruption, labor and histadrut was the epitome of corruption.

Kachol lavan is nothing , it's like a million other parties that came and went.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 02:42:08 PM
The odds of there not being an indictment are infinitesimally small. Not sure why you think that's a likely outcome.

Do you actually believe the things you write?

And if you happen to belive that the odds are "infinitesimally small", what makes you believe so? Is it because you believe that the AG is dishonest or is "infinitesimally" likely to cave to pressure, or is it because you actually believe that the implausible allegations have any merit?


Quote
“If you task Gantz with forming the government, we will not negotiate with him,” Shaked said. “We are committed to the head of the national camp, Prime Minister Netanyahu.

“I do want to tell you, Mr. President, that you may need to act like a kindergarten teacher and tell the other party leaders to stop the boycotts,” she added. “There are ideological boycotts and there are also personal boycotts. And it needs to stop, both the personal and the ideological boycotts, and to try and get to some form of unity government.
Do you think she realized how hypocritical that is?

Where's the hypocrisy? She's not boycotting Gantz, she's just saying that she made a pact with Netanyahu that she wouldn't negotiate separately but rather appear as a unified bloc and will allow Netanyahu's team handle negotiations.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 05:30:03 PM
Seen on WhatsApp:

דלפו פרטים מהפגישה בין נתניהו לגנץ:
נתניהו הציע לגנץ את התיקים; 1000, 2000, 3000 ו4000. גנץ סירב בטענה שאין בהם כלום...

 ;D
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on September 23, 2019, 05:30:28 PM
I think they'll go for round 3.

Meir kahane was right though, the demographics are catching up in the Arab sector.

However, I think the Arabs will assimilate.

I'm a frum Jew and sure as hell don't want a government run by utj or Shas..

I think we will see more Israeli Arabs realize they are better off under Bibi, it's wishful thinking, it's not gonna be a lot but some. .
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 23, 2019, 05:31:45 PM
I think they'll go for round 3.

Meir kahane was right though, the demographics are catching up in the Arab sector.

However, I think the Arabs will assimilate.

I'm a frum Jew and sure as hell don't want a government run by utj or Shas..

I think we will see more Israeli Arabs realize they are better off under Bibi, it's wishful thinking, it's not gonna be a lot but some. .
I think a 3rd round hurts bibi.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 05:42:28 PM
I think they'll go for round 3.
I think a 3rd round hurts bibi.

It's all conjecture at this point.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on September 23, 2019, 05:43:55 PM
It's all conjecture at this point.
Basically you just summed up a 400+ post thread in 5 words :)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 23, 2019, 05:46:13 PM
I think a 3rd round hurts bibi.


It's all conjecture at this point.
Likud with Kachlon got fewer seats than Likud alone. The only exception would be if bibi is legally cleared before a 3rd election.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 05:50:43 PM
Basically you just summed up a 400+ post thread in 5 words :)

Except for the few jokes and memes.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on September 23, 2019, 05:52:28 PM
Basically you just summed up a 400+ post thread in 5 words :)
Just the thread?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 23, 2019, 06:17:46 PM
I think Rivlin says I am not tasking anyone with creating the coalition until you children figure something out
Looks like this is exactly what happened
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 23, 2019, 07:21:09 PM
Looks like this is exactly what happened
Except that he can't legally hand the task to anyone before certified results are released. He's trying to preempt the situation where he's the one throwing the hot potato.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on September 24, 2019, 05:35:20 AM
Gantz-Lapid would most probably not run together a third time.  I think Gantz is unhappy with the hate he spews. I cannot see them running again. What might work is if Lieberman teams up with Gantz, that is a much better shidduch
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on September 24, 2019, 11:10:39 AM
Can a sitting PM be indicted?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 24, 2019, 11:15:07 AM
Can a sitting PM be indicted?

It's up to the sole discretion of the AG.

Which is why the left has been taking unprecedented personal abhorrent actions against him for months. The end justifies all means for them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on September 24, 2019, 11:20:40 AM
It's up to the sole discretion of the AG.
ty
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 24, 2019, 11:34:54 AM
It's up to the sole discretion of the AG.

Which is why the left has been taking unprecedented personal abhorrent actions against him for months. The end justifies all means for them.
In a normal time line, Netanyahu would step aside until he is exonerated rather than try to get his allies to sign agreements barring prosecution.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 24, 2019, 04:45:51 PM
In a normal time line, Netanyahu would step aside until he is exonerated rather than try to get his allies to sign agreements barring prosecution.
In a normal time line there would be no talk of prosecuting Bibi now.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 24, 2019, 05:00:19 PM
In a normal time line there would be no talk of prosecuting Bibi now.
Why? Olmert was forced out due to an investigation. As were Lieberman and Deri.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 24, 2019, 07:01:05 PM
OUCH!!!

Final results are out, UTJ loses one seat to Likud.

Poor Pindrus, he's been subjected to this כף הקלע before.

https://col.org.il/news/120749

https://www.news1.co.il/Archive/001-D-418306-00.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on September 24, 2019, 08:45:25 PM
OUCH!!!

Final results are out, UTJ loses one seat to Likud.

Poor Pindrus, he's been subjected to this כף הקלע before.

https://col.org.il/news/120749

https://www.news1.co.il/Archive/001-D-418306-00.html
Again?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 24, 2019, 09:07:35 PM
OUCH!!!

Final results are out, UTJ loses one seat to Likud.

Poor Pindrus, he's been subjected to this כף הקלע before.

https://col.org.il/news/120749

https://www.news1.co.il/Archive/001-D-418306-00.html
Feel bad for him personally, but it doesn't make much difference for the Klal in my opinion.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on September 25, 2019, 12:33:39 AM
At this point it seems Bibi is ready to split the premiership with Gantz 50-50. I've even seen reports that he is willing to give Gantz more than 2 years, as long as Bibi goes first.

So, how about a coalition of the right- 55 seats, PLUS Gantz breaks off from Lapid with his 15 seats (since regardless, most think those 2 will never run again together), and they split the Premiership 50-50.

It will be a stable coalition of 70, right wing/center, and Gantz is the Incumbent prime minister when they hit the polls in 4 years from now.
If he does a good job, he may even win reelection, and if not, the Likud will take it back in 4 years.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: justaregularguy on September 25, 2019, 01:42:19 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1789613/breaking-rivlin-taps-netanyahu-to-form-next-government.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 25, 2019, 01:54:23 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1789613/breaking-rivlin-taps-netanyahu-to-form-next-government.html

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5597084,00.html

Apparently Lapid is vetoing participation in any government headed by Netanyahu.

Some decent analysis (prior to the announcement by Rivlin) here: https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1034277 with the key IMHO being in part 2, and specifically:

Quote
התוצאה החשובה הזו מחדדת עוד יותר את התבונה שבהחלטת המפלגות החרדיות לדבוק בגוש הימין ולא להתפתות להצעות של 'כחול-לבן'. לנאמנות הזו יש משמעות רחבה הרבה יותר מן הממשלה הקרובה שתקום. היא משקפת את החיבור המתרקם בין חלקי הגוש המסורתי בישראל. חיבור שיש לו משמעות רבה לעתיד היהדות במדינה. את חשיבות החיבור הזה הסביר כבר לפני קרוב לשלושה עשורים הגראמ"מ שך זצ"ל ב'נאום השפנים' הזכור. גם אם לעיתים נראה שיש רווח פוליטי מהיר בהפרת החיבור הזה, יתרונותיו הערכיים והעמוקים חשובים יותר.

The fight isn't between right and left, or anything else, it is between those who want a connection to Jewishness, to those that want to create a modern, westernized Israeli devoid of all connection to Jewishness.

This was identified by Shimon Peres after the 1996 election:

Quote
בראיון שהעניק לעיתונאי דניאל בן סימון, מיד לאחר בחירות 1996 (הראיון נדפס בספרו "ארץ אחרת" ) נשאל פרס על תוצאות הבחירות ב-1996.
תשובת פרס: אנחנו הפסדנו.
בן סימון: מי זה אנחנו?
פרס: אנחנו הישראלים.
בן-סימון: ומי ניצח?
פרס: כל מי שאין לו מנטליות ישראלית.
בן-סימון: מי אלה?
פרס: תקרא לזה "יהודים".

http://www.zeevgalili.com/2007/06/433
https://www.makorrishon.co.il/nrg/online/1/ART2/683/557.html
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 25, 2019, 02:14:45 PM
Video of Rivlin explaining his actions, stating that unless major compromises will take place, no-one will be able to form a government, also suggesting to implement some legal changes empowering a custodial PM in case a PM is unable to function for whatever reason. Netanyahu calling for unity and reconciliation. Pledging to act fast to form a unity government, and if unable to do so on a fast track, to return the mandate to Rivlin, stating that if it won't be done in a fast track, it will eventually be done once the end of the road is reached.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 25, 2019, 06:52:28 PM
Gantz repeated that he won't sit with Bibi. Bibi should just turn around tomorrow and daysay Gantz is being unreasonable and return the mandate. Would be a legit move
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Pad18 on September 25, 2019, 07:37:41 PM
Gantz repeated that he won't sit with Bibi. Bibi should just turn around tomorrow and daysay Gantz is being unreasonable and return the mandate. Would be a legit move

or do a spin with Liberman, lol yes i like to dream ...

what a mess! I don't see the end of it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: justaregularguy on September 25, 2019, 08:42:44 PM
could someone explain in 3 sentences or less why rivlin gave the mandate to netanyahu when gantz won more seats? I know rivlin can technically give the mandate to anyone he wants but generally he gives to whoever has most seats... :o
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 25, 2019, 08:47:59 PM
could someone explain in 3 sentences or less why rivlin gave the mandate to netanyahu when gantz won more seats? I know rivlin can technically give the mandate to anyone he wants but generally he gives to whoever has most seats... :o
Because Bibi had 55 MKs recommending vs Gantz 54. All the MKs recommending Bibi said they would join his coalition. 10 of the MKs recommending Gantz said they wouldn't join his coalition.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: justaregularguy on September 25, 2019, 08:50:21 PM
Because Bibi had 55 MKs recommending vs Gantz 54. All the MKs recommending Bibi said they would join his coalition. 10 of the MKs recommending Gantz said they wouldn't join his coalition.
3 sentences. perfect :D
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 25, 2019, 09:02:54 PM
Gantz repeated that he won't sit with Bibi. Bibi should just turn around tomorrow and daysay Gantz is being unreasonable and return the mandate. Would be a legit move
The Israeli media is claiming he will do it. Rivlin said he won't necessarily give Gantz a shot afterwards, which probably means they will call a special election for PM only and Bibbi will win with a landslide.

https://www.mako.co.il/news-politics/2019_Q3/Article-08ff21db8696d61027.htm?sCh=3d385dd2dd5d4110&pId=1434139730
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on September 25, 2019, 10:30:58 PM


The Israeli media is claiming he will do it. Rivlin said he won't necessarily give Gantz a shot afterwards, which probably means they will call a special election for PM only

How will that work?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on September 25, 2019, 11:52:33 PM
which probably means they will call a special election for PM only and Bibbi will win with a landslide.

https://www.mako.co.il/news-politics/2019_Q3/Article-08ff21db8696d61027.htm?sCh=3d385dd2dd5d4110&pId=1434139730
By law, who has the power to call for such special election?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on September 26, 2019, 12:37:32 AM
We keep on hearing that the public will not want a 3rd election. I know that it sounds ridiculous to have 3 elections in 1 year, but in reality who is this public?

Yamina only got 7 seats. Im sure they feel they can do better.
Likud dropped from (35+4) 39 to 32. They might feel they can do better
Agudah just lost their 8th seat, so they would want to go again.
Labor who had 24 just 4 years ago, lost their voters to Blue and White. For sure if Blue and white would to split, Labor can only go up.
Meretz, didn't do particularly well..

So who doesn't want a round 3?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 26, 2019, 12:41:34 AM
By law, who has the power to call for such special election?

There is no such provision for a special election under current Israeli law.

The law is that if whoever was given the mandate in round 1 and 2 fails, it reverts to the Knesset to vote on one of its members to get the mandate. If that fails, the Knesset gets dissolved and a new general election is scheduled within 90 days.

https://he.m.wikisource.org/wiki/חוק-יסוד:_הממשלה

Quote
הטלת התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה
(א)
משיש לכונן ממשלה חדשה יטיל נשיא המדינה, לאחר שהתייעץ עם נציגי הסיעות בכנסת, את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה על אחד מחברי הכנסת שהסכים לכך; הנשיא יטיל את התפקיד כאמור בתוך שבעה ימים מיום פרסום תוצאות הבחירות או מיום היווצרות העילה לכינון ממשלה חדשה, ובמקרה של פטירת ראש הממשלה – בתוך 14 ימים מיום הפטירה.
(ב)
נתקיימה ההתייעצות לפני שנתכנסה הכנסת החדשה, יתייעץ הנשיא עם נציגי רשימות המועמדים שתיוצגנה בכנסת החדשה.
(ג)
סעיף זה לא יחול על כינון ממשלה בעקבות הבעת אי אמון לפי סעיף 28 או בעקבות הגשת בקשה לנשיא המדינה לפי סעיף 29(ב), ויחולו ההוראות המפורטות בסעיפים האמורים.
8. התקופה להרכבת ממשלה
לחבר הכנסת שנשיא המדינה הטיל עליו את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה לפי סעיף 7 נתונה למילוי תפקידו תקופה של 28 ימים; הנשיא רשאי להאריך תקופה זו בתקופות נוספות, ובלבד שלא יעלו יחד על 14 ימים.
9. הטלת התפקיד מחדש
(א)
עברה התקופה לפי סעיף 8 וחבר הכנסת לא הודיע לנשיא המדינה שהרכיב ממשלה, או שהודיע לו לפני כן שאין בידו להרכיב ממשלה, או שהציג ממשלה והכנסת דחתה את הבקשה להביע בה אמון לפי סעיף 13(ד), יטיל הנשיא את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה על חבר אחר של הכנסת שהודיע לנשיא שהוא מוכן לקבל את התפקיד, או יודיע ליושב ראש הכנסת שאינו רואה אפשרות להגיע להרכבת ממשלה, והכל בתוך שלושה ימים מיום שעברה התקופה או מיום הודעתו של חבר הכנסת שאין בידו להרכיב ממשלה, או מיום דחיית הבקשה להביע אמון בממשלה, לפי הענין.
(ב)
לפני שיטיל את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה לפי סעיף זה, או לפני שיודיע ליושב ראש הכנסת שאינו רואה אפשרות להגיע להרכבת ממשלה, רשאי הנשיא לחזור ולהתייעץ עם נציגי סיעות בכנסת.
(ג)
לחבר הכנסת שהתפקיד להרכיב ממשלה הוטל עליו לפי סעיף זה נתונה למילוי תפקידו תקופה של 28 ימים.
10. הטלת התפקיד לפי בקשת רוב חברי הכנסת
(א)
הודיע נשיא המדינה ליושב ראש הכנסת, לפי סעיף 9(א), שאינו רואה אפשרות להגיע להרכבת ממשלה, או שהטיל את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה על חבר הכנסת לפי אותו סעיף וחבר הכנסת לא הודיע לנשיא בתוך 28 ימים שהרכיב ממשלה או שהודיע לו לפני כן שאין בידו להרכיב ממשלה או שהציג ממשלה והכנסת דחתה את הבקשה להביע בה אמון לפי סעיף 13(ד), רשאים רוב חברי הכנסת לבקש מנשיא המדינה, בכתב, להטיל את התפקיד על חבר הכנסת פלוני, שהסכים לכך בכתב, והכל בתוך 21 ימים מיום הודעת הנשיא, או מהיום שבו עברה התקופה לפי סעיף 9(ג), או מיום הודעתו של חבר הכנסת שאין בידו להרכיב ממשלה, או מיום דחיית הבקשה להביע אמון בממשלה, לפי הענין.
(ב)
הוגשה לנשיא בקשה כאמור בסעיף קטן (א), יטיל הנשיא, בתוך יומיים, את התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה על חבר הכנסת שצויין בבקשה.
(ג)
לחבר הכנסת שהתפקיד להרכיב ממשלה הוטל עליו לפי סעיף זה נתונה למילוי תפקידו תקופה של 14 ימים.
11. בחירות מוקדמות באין ממשלה
(א)
לא הוגשה בקשה כאמור בסעיף 10(א), או לא הרכיב חבר הכנסת ממשלה בתקופה הנתונה לו לפי סעיף 10(ג), או שהודיע לנשיא לפני כן שאין בידו להרכיב ממשלה, יודיע נשיא המדינה על כך ליושב ראש הכנסת.
(ב)
הודיע הנשיא כאמור בסעיף קטן (א), או שחבר הכנסת שהוטל עליו התפקיד להרכיב ממשלה לפי סעיף 10(א) הציג ממשלה והכנסת דחתה את הבקשה להביע בה אמון לפי סעיף 13(ד), יראו את הכנסת כאילו החליטה על התפזרותה לפני תום תקופת כהונתה, והבחירות לכנסת יתקיימו ביום ג׳ האחרון שלפני תום 90 הימים מיום הודעת הנשיא, או מיום דחיית הבקשה להביע אמון בממשלה, לפי הענין.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 26, 2019, 06:02:51 AM
We keep on hearing that the public will not want a 3rd election. I know that it sounds ridiculous to have 3 elections in 1 year, but in reality who is this public?

Yamina only got 7 seats. Im sure they feel they can do better.
Likud dropped from (35+4) 39 to 32. They might feel they can do better
Agudah just lost their 8th seat, so they would want to go again.
Labor who had 24 just 4 years ago, lost their voters to Blue and White. For sure if Blue and white would to split, Labor can only go up.
Meretz, didn't do particularly well..

So who doesn't want a round 3?
The public is the voting public. The people won't stand for it. They don't agree on anything other than that
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 26, 2019, 06:35:36 AM
The public is the voting public. The people won't stand for it. They don't agree on anything other than that
The question is by not standing for it do they vote in Bibbi or B&W. This may happen all over again in the 3rd elections. 
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 26, 2019, 07:44:10 AM
Another brilliant move by Netanyahu, asking to have his hearing streamed live.

The left thrives on secrecy and obscurity.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 26, 2019, 08:00:12 AM
There's still the possibility that members of the knesset could just decide to break with their parties and vote for someone.

This in theory could have been the case I nthe last election, but they voted to dissolve instead.

It should not be understated that Israeli is having financial problems, and elections make it worse (and themselves are costly).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on September 28, 2019, 02:19:24 PM
Gantz repeated that he won't sit with Bibi. Bibi should just turn around tomorrow and daysay Gantz is being unreasonable and return the mandate. Would be a legit move
Looks like this will happen tomorrow
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 28, 2019, 07:33:25 PM
Looks like this will happen tomorrow
I think it may be a bluff to get Lieberman/Peretz to capitulate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on September 28, 2019, 10:17:06 PM
I read recently, that while both candidates preferred to go 2nd, there is some benefit in the Knesset for the party that is tabbed first.
I don't remember what it is, or where I saw the article. Does anyone know what I'm talking about?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 28, 2019, 10:39:30 PM
I read recently, that while both candidates preferred to go 2nd, there is some benefit in the Knesset for the party that is tabbed first.
I don't remember what it is, or where I saw the article. Does anyone know what I'm talking about?

That was the initial thought, because they get to appoint Knesset committees, but the AG said that if the mandate is returned and reassigned to someone else, the committees can get reappointed.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on September 28, 2019, 11:11:20 PM
That was the initial thought, because they get to appoint Knesset committees, but the AG said that if the mandate is returned and reassigned to someone else, the committees can get reappointed.
Oh.
I was thinking that Bibi will wait for the Knesset to go into session this week, so he gets the committees, and then right after he will return the mandate.
But now I was seeing reports he may return it as soon as today. Although, im not sure what he will gain, because I doubt that Rivlin will tap Gantz already before Rosh Hashana.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on September 29, 2019, 09:56:38 AM
Oh.
I was thinking that Bibi will wait for the Knesset to go into session this week, so he gets the committees, and then right after he will return the mandate.
But now I was seeing reports he may return it as soon as today. Although, im not sure what he will gain, because I doubt that Rivlin will tap Gantz already before Rosh Hashana.

Most recent reports are that Netanyahu and Gantz are scheduled to meet face to face on Wednesday in last ditch effort to resolve the impasse.

As far as what is there to gain by returning it to Rivlin ASAP, there's lots to gain from a PR standpoint, while maintaining his position as transitional PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on September 29, 2019, 01:21:08 PM
As far as what is there to gain by returning it to Rivlin ASAP, there's lots to gain from a PR standpoint.

Won't people see it as him trying to get new elections?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 01, 2019, 05:21:57 PM
Polls are showing more people blame Bibbi for the failure than Gantz, which is probably why Gantz cancelled the meeting.

I think Bibbil will return the mandate early next week, he's more likely to get Lieberman/Peretz/Gantz to blink in the 21 days left before elections. Rivlin will probably not give the mandate to Gantz, although that would probably play to Bibbi's favor as Gantz wouldn't be able to hide behinds his mask of silence and it would finally become evident what a group of clowns they are

Don't see how this ends, even if the Likud loses 5 seats in the 3rd elections Bibbi can create the same impasse.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on October 01, 2019, 11:55:57 PM
Correct. I can't see how Bibi loses on a 3rd election.
If he picks up 6 seats, he is pm all by himself.
If Gantz picks up 6 seats, he still isn't pm without a unity gov with Likud.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on October 02, 2019, 12:15:30 AM
Everyone is expecting the outcome of the hearing to be a game changer.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on October 02, 2019, 12:22:51 AM
For months we have been hearing that he will be indicted.
What are the chances that he won't?
What crime is it to ask the press for better coverage? Cmon!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on October 02, 2019, 09:58:45 AM
What crime is it to ask the press for better coverage? Cmon!
The crime isn't to ask for better coverage, it's to offer something (specifically government action) in exchange for that coverage.

Not saying he did, but that's the charge
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on October 02, 2019, 04:28:45 PM
After the hearings next week, Mandebilt announces he intends to indict Bibi. After that, things are very different
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on October 02, 2019, 10:33:10 PM
Mandelblit is not planning to announce anything until December.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on October 02, 2019, 10:41:56 PM
After the hearings next week, Mandebilt announces he intends to indict Bibi. After that, things are very different

Do you actually believe the things you write?
If you listen to what someone who knows a thing or two says, you might not be so convinced in what you wrote.

https://youtu.be/3VGxPPZ1WNM

And while I don't necessarily think it will have to wait until December, there are reasons to believe he won't announce anything immediately (except if the evidence is so overwhelming towards promptly dropping all the indictments).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on October 03, 2019, 12:38:00 AM
My pov is that if they had what to indict Bibi over, they would have already.

Personally don't care, he's a good pm and there are no alternatives. He's better than anyone in his party etc ..

Next election no otzama.

I feel likud gains a few and right wing Bloc gains a few..

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: CountValentine on October 03, 2019, 12:57:23 AM
Everyone is expecting the outcome of the hearing to be a game changer.
You want to borrow one of my hotkeys?  :)

***BOMBSHELL ALERT***
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on October 03, 2019, 01:01:40 AM
If there is a next election, Bibi needs to make sure there are other secular right wing parties for people to vote for (especially if there is an indictment hanging over him).
There were too many center/right voters who couldn't get themselves to vote for Bibi, yet wouldn't vote for a religious Yamina party. Those votes defected to Lieberman, or even Blue and White. Arguably, all of Kachlon's voters (and Kachlon was no fan of Bibi to begin with,as that originally caused him to break away from Likud and make his own party) didn't vote for Likud and instead looked elsewhere. But with no other alternative than Lieberman or Blue and White, they voted there.

So he needs to make sure there is a secular right party, whether its Kachlon or Shaked ect, that can pass the threshold, yet unlike Lieberman, will join him, and won't be anti chareidi. There are too many voters who are ok with Bibi, yet aren't running to vote for him, and need a platform to vote for a center/right party.

Otzma, only costed the right 1 seat in the end, but they shouldn't run, and instead merge with the religious right, and add 2 seats there.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on October 03, 2019, 01:42:18 AM
84k votes is 3 seats
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on October 03, 2019, 11:30:28 PM
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/696661
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on October 04, 2019, 10:10:21 AM
If there is a next election, Bibi needs to make sure there are other secular right wing parties for people to vote for (especially if there is an indictment hanging over him).
There were too many center/right voters who couldn't get themselves to vote for Bibi, yet wouldn't vote for a religious Yamina party. Those votes defected to Lieberman, or even Blue and White. Arguably, all of Kachlon's voters (and Kachlon was no fan of Bibi to begin with,as that originally caused him to break away from Likud and make his own party) didn't vote for Likud and instead looked elsewhere. But with no other alternative than Lieberman or Blue and White, they voted there.

So he needs to make sure there is a secular right party, whether its Kachlon or Shaked ect, that can pass the threshold, yet unlike Lieberman, will join him, and won't be anti chareidi. There are too many voters who are ok with Bibi, yet aren't running to vote for him, and need a platform to vote for a center/right party.

Otzma, only costed the right 1 seat in the end, but they shouldn't run, and instead merge with the religious right, and add 2 seats there.
In the first round, Yamin hachadash didn't pass alone, so they remerged with BY, which at least in part, meant Otzmah was out.

At this point, unity is the best option, especially with complications from a 3 way rotation no longer practical. I think the plan is hopefully by stalling enough, the charges against bibi will be dropped, and then Likud/BW (who aren't so different ideologically) can sit together in rotation.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on October 05, 2019, 09:36:26 PM
In the first round, Yamin hachadash didn't pass alone, so they remerged with BY, which at least in part, meant Otzmah was out.

At this point, unity is the best option, especially with complications from a 3 way rotation no longer practical. I think the plan is hopefully by stalling enough, the charges against bibi will be dropped, and then Likud/BW (who aren't so different ideologically) can sit together in rotation.
The issue with Unity, is what happens with Shabbos, draft, schools ect.
Of course ideologically they can sit together, but if it excludes the 23 seats of Agudah, Shas and Yamina, there will be big problems, since Lapid and Lieberman have made their intentions clear.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gozalim on October 06, 2019, 05:41:35 AM
The issue with Unity, is what happens with Shabbos, draft, schools ect.
Of course ideologically they can sit together, but if it excludes the 23 seats of Agudah, Shas and Yamina, there will be big problems, since Lapid and Lieberman have made their intentions clear.
so the priorities of a strong Israeli state and of Torah Judaism are at odds. That's new
[ducks]
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on October 18, 2019, 10:55:00 AM
2. They have publicly pledged to support Netanyahu in the previous elections. While this is a new round, and they might be a little more cautious here, I doubt it will change. They also know that Netanyahu is by far more capable than any of the other clowns. I think his successor might end up being Barkat, but that's years down the road, not now. If Israel would have direct personal election of the Prime Minister, Netanyahu would win it even if he stayed silent the entire campaign.

https://mobile.kikar.co.il/abroad/article/333202

Barkat seems to see things similarly.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 08, 2019, 02:42:13 PM
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: skyguy918 on November 09, 2019, 08:20:30 PM
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.

Lol. Totally OT, but my grandmother always loves to tell a story about Auman's 'genius' from their time in the same circles while in school in Boston. A bunch of orthodox students shared an apt, and the landlord kept the thermostat behind a lock, and much too low. His 'geonus' was to put a bag of frozen vegetable on it to trick it into keeping the heat on longer. :-P
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on November 09, 2019, 11:13:41 PM
Lol. Totally OT, but my grandmother always loves to tell a story about Auman's 'genius' from their time in the same circles while in school in Boston. A bunch of orthodox students shared an apt, and the landlord kept the thermostat behind a lock, and much too low. His 'geonus' was to put a bag of frozen vegetable on it to trick it into keeping the heat on longer. :-P

We did that in yeshive for the AC. We took a cup of hot water and put it into a hat which we hung on the sensor.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: itunes on November 11, 2019, 09:13:14 AM
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Liberman-put-Netanyahu-and-Gantz-in-the-prisoners-dilemma-607509
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: skyguy918 on November 11, 2019, 09:44:40 AM
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Liberman-put-Netanyahu-and-Gantz-in-the-prisoners-dilemma-607509
The funny thing is, if likud and b&w made a unity govt, they wouldn't actually need Lieberman to get the necessary seats. They wouldn't need anyone else for that matter, strictly speaking.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 11, 2019, 10:23:25 AM
The funny thing is, if likud and b&w made a unity govt, they wouldn't actually need Lieberman to get the necessary seats. They wouldn't need anyone else for that matter, strictly speaking.
It's not possible. Even with Lieberman, there no way gantz gets it without working with Arabs, and I'm pretty sure Lieberman won't let that happen.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: skyguy918 on November 11, 2019, 10:42:14 AM
It's not possible. Even with Lieberman, there no way gantz gets it without working with Arabs, and I'm pretty sure Lieberman won't let that happen.
What's not possible?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 11, 2019, 10:46:38 AM
What's not possible?
The math.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: skyguy918 on November 11, 2019, 11:21:50 AM
The math.
The math works just fine. I'm well aware that none of the options, including unity, seem more likely than not. My point is that Lieberman has clearly structured his gambit in a way that incentivizes  a unity gov - that's what he's been asking for the whole time. But if Likud and B&W did find a way to sit together and make a unity government, they wouldn't need Lieberman's seats to do that. 33+32 is 65, which is more than 60 last time I checked.

It sounds like you're referring to the scenario where Gantz 'compromises' and Netanyahu doesn't - that it doesn't work because it requires B&W to bring both YB and the Joint List to sit together. I agree with that, but it has nothing to do with the scenario I was talking about.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 11, 2019, 11:24:33 AM
It sounds like you're referring to the scenario where Gantz 'compromises' and Netanyahu doesn't - that it doesn't work because it requires B&W to bring both YB and the Joint List to sit together. I agree with that, but it has nothing to do with the scenario I was talking about.

Yet if Gantz "compromises" why would Netanyahu need to do anything. Gantz's proposed "compromise" keeps Netanyahu as PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 11, 2019, 11:26:06 AM
The math works just fine. I'm well aware that none of the options, including unity, seem more likely than not. My point is that Lieberman has clearly structured his gambit in a way that incentivizes  a unity gov - that's what he's been asking for the whole time. But if Likud and B&W did find a way to sit together and make a unity government, they wouldn't need Lieberman's seats to do that. 33+32 is 65, which is more than 60 last time I checked.

It sounds like you're referring to the scenario where Gantz 'compromises' and Netanyahu doesn't - that it doesn't work because it requires B&W to bring both YB and the Joint List to sit together. I agree with that, but it has nothing to do with the scenario I was talking about.
Yes, I was commenting on Lieberman's prisoner's dilemma.

In theory if you're go unity, you'd rather have more seats so that you can neutralize the strongest ideologues on both sides. A 74 seat government can pass wider legislation than a 65 seat one can.

There also is a scenario where some of the 65 resign from their parties in opposition to unity.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 11, 2019, 11:27:20 AM
Yet if Gantz "compromises" why would Netanyahu need to do anything. Gantz's proposed "compromise" keeps Netanyahu as PM.
Lieberman thinks unity only works without charedim/right wing block.

Chareidim are a wild card - could they sit with Lapid as a high ranking minister but with no plan to be PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 11, 2019, 11:33:30 AM
Chareidim are a wild card - could they sit with Lapid as a high ranking minister but with no plan to be PM.

-1

Chareidim are the most predictable.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 11, 2019, 11:33:55 AM
-1

Chareidim are the most predictable.
Will they sit with Lapid?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on November 20, 2019, 08:58:14 AM
Here we go again....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aro123 on November 20, 2019, 09:04:17 AM
title will need to be updated to 2020
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on November 20, 2019, 11:41:13 AM
title will need to be updated to 2020

And to make it "elections" plural
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 20, 2019, 11:44:53 AM
And to make it "elections" plural

Yeah, keep it plural and just put starting in 2019, as there's no indication that another round will have any different outcome.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 20, 2019, 12:11:36 PM
There's still a 21 day period in which anyone can get 61 signatures. I would not be shocked if bibi gets 61, which would then give him 14 more days to actually form a government.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on November 20, 2019, 12:18:01 PM
Yeah, keep it plural and just put starting in 2019, as there's no indication that another round will have any different outcome.
Maybe they'll get rid of the Lieberman clown. I don't see what anyone would vote for someone who keeps holding the country back. Nevermind that his whole platform at this point is just hate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 20, 2019, 01:06:57 PM
Maybe they'll get rid of the Lieberman clown. I don't see what anyone would vote for someone who keeps holding the country back. Nevermind that his whole platform at this point is just hate.
His base likes him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yammer on November 20, 2019, 01:11:05 PM
Maybe they'll get rid of the Lieberman clown. I don't see what anyone would vote for someone who keeps holding the country back. Nevermind that his whole platform at this point is just hate.
His base likes him.
+1

And he came across as someone that puts country before himself.... A strong centric govt of Bibbi- Ganz while claiming that he's ok staying outside...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 20, 2019, 01:12:54 PM
Once Lieberman declared support for a direct election for PM, the end is obvious. There is a solid majority to pass that, there will be a special election for PM, bibbi and the right will win again, ובא לציון גואל
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 20, 2019, 01:25:30 PM
Once Lieberman declared support for a direct election for PM, the end is obvious. There is a solid majority to pass that, there will be a special election for PM, bibbi and the right will win again, ובא לציון גואל
Not happening. Even Lieberman conceded that it cannot happen in this stage with a transitional government in place. Only once a permanent government is installed can the system be changed.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on November 20, 2019, 01:33:32 PM
+1

And he came across as someone that puts country before himself.... A strong centric govt of Bibbi- Ganz while claiming that he's ok staying outside...
Like by saying he would support a govt including Arabs?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on November 20, 2019, 01:35:38 PM
So change it just for this election.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 20, 2019, 01:52:01 PM
So change it just for this election.
I think it's pretty evident bibi would win in a head to head vs gantz.

He probably already has a majority, and I'm sure a lot of Arabs will abstain.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on November 20, 2019, 06:20:00 PM
In a direct election, how does it work with the rest of the Knesset?

Lets say, there was a direct election now, and Bibi beats Gantz, how will Bibi be able to pass any bills for the next 4 years, if he only has 55 out of 120 supporting him for anything?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on November 20, 2019, 06:27:02 PM
I'm no expert, but is it time to switch to directly electing a PM and a party separately?
Said this 2 months ago. I don't see another way forward.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 20, 2019, 06:37:47 PM
In a direct election, how does it work with the rest of the Knesset?

Lets say, there was a direct election now, and Bibi beats Gantz, how will Bibi be able to pass any bills for the next 4 years, if he only has 55 out of 120 supporting him for anything?

Which is part of the reason they did away with it. Though back then the minimum threshold to enter the Knesset was much lower.

I think that having a two round election might be a better option, but there again it's all up to the details.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on November 20, 2019, 07:11:29 PM
In a direct election, how does it work with the rest of the Knesset?

Lets say, there was a direct election now, and Bibi beats Gantz, how will Bibi be able to pass any bills for the next 4 years, if he only has 55 out of 120 supporting him for anything?

It can give cover to someone (Labor?) to join a government under Bibi. None of them want to be blamed for allowing Bibi to remain PM, but once that is decided they may take whatever they can get in exchange for supporting him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on November 21, 2019, 11:03:22 AM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/272053
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: skyguy918 on November 21, 2019, 11:56:37 AM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/272053
Netanyahu charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/272056
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on November 21, 2019, 01:55:15 PM
Netanyahu charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/272056

Gonna pop some popcorn and sit back and watch...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Baruch on November 21, 2019, 02:43:34 PM
Netanyahu charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/272056
Will this effect Election round 3?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on November 22, 2019, 12:03:22 PM
Bibi in theory can stay PM for years to come.
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Netanyahu-can-ask-for-immunity-from-prosecution-but-it-wont-come-easy-608702
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on November 22, 2019, 12:22:57 PM
Was it circumstantial that the indictments were announced right at the beginning of the 21 days? Or was it intentional to inflict damage on Bibi? (or some other reason?)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 22, 2019, 12:26:54 PM
There are now 2 scenarios -

1. The bibi indictment gives Likud MKs the cover to break up Likud and 61 MKs are able to agree to either a Gantz PM/other Likud PM/rotation of the 2.

2. Israel goes to 3rd elections.
2a. Someone else in Likud is top of ticket, paving the way for a a government, as B&W would drop it's condition to not sit in a coalition with bibi

2b. Bibi remains the head of Likud and Israel remains in the deadlock unless Lieberman is willing to sit with the charedim or Likud loses so many votes, that a center-left coalition is possible.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 22, 2019, 01:42:58 PM
Was it circumstantial that the indictments were announced right at the beginning of the 21 days? Or was it intentional to inflict damage on Bibi? (or some other reason?)

According to Bibi both the timing of the initial announcement of an indictment subject to a hearing, as well as the timing of the current post hearing announcement were intentional.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 22, 2019, 01:44:50 PM
According to Bibi both the timing of the initial announcement of an indictment subject to a hearing, as well as the timing of the current post hearing announcement were intentional.
Counter argument - once they knew they were going to indict him, best to do it when there's still a chance to avoid an expensive 3rd election as opposed to waiting until its too late. I think it's only good for the country for this news to be announced as early as possible.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2019, 01:47:54 PM
Would've done much more damage to Bibbi if announced a week ago.

The AG cannot file the suit in court until a government is formed to approve it. Any lawsuit against a sitting Kenneset member requires the sign off of ועדת הכנסת, which doesn't exist until there's a government.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on November 22, 2019, 01:53:25 PM
B&W plus Lieberman are currently 41. So they only need 20 seats from thr left (11), the right (7) and Likud (32). I think this announcement makes it possible for 20 out of that 50 MK group to come together - less if UTJ pls shas swap out with Lieberman. Remember, the bottom of the Likud list is at risk if there's a new elections and voters move away from Likud over this.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on November 23, 2019, 03:13:22 PM
Has been said before in different words.

However, the game board is a little different at this stage.

Netanyahu can simply wait it out, allowing Gantz to make a fool of himself a second time around (first time was in April), trying to no avail to form a government. In the interim Mandelblit holds the hearing and the threat of indictment is dropped, and all of the sudden the game board looks different yet again, but this time giving an advantage to Netanyahu.

BTW, all along Netanyahu is still the transitional PM.

I'm still confused why you were so sure that the indictment was going to be dropped
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on November 24, 2019, 08:23:36 AM
B&W plus Lieberman are currently 41. So they only need 20 seats from thr left (11), the right (7) and Likud (32). I think this announcement makes it possible for 20 out of that 50 MK group to come together - less if UTJ pls shas swap out with Lieberman. Remember, the bottom of the Likud list is at risk if there's a new elections and voters move away from Likud over this.

Voters are not going to move away from Likud, they have no where to go, and especially now that they saw Gantz almost form a Govt with the Arabs they would never go there.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: aygart on November 24, 2019, 09:40:23 AM
Voters are not going to move away from Likud, they have no where to go, and especially now that they saw Gantz and Leiberman almost form a Govt with the Arabs they would never go there.
FTFY
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 24, 2019, 09:43:07 AM
Voters are not going to move away from Likud, they have no where to go, and especially now that they saw Gantz almost form a Govt with the Arabs they would never go there.
Nah. Hatred and jealousy towards Netanyahu are stronger than reason. (I also find it hard to believe that there isn't big money coming from George Soros and his ilk funding this fight).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 24, 2019, 06:54:26 PM
I'm still confused why you were so sure that the indictment was going to be dropped

I don't think I indicated that I was sure that the indictment would be dropped as much as you were sure that it will stand after the hearing. I did give it a high probability of happening and was obviously wrong in my assessment.

Deciding to indict on a case that is very questionable on whether it would prevail at trial, especially when it interferes with a democratic process, isn't the kind of slam dunk that you seem to have indicated when you wrote that the chances of not indicting are infinitesimally small. You might want to listen to the following (assuming you have a good enough command of the Hebrew langauge):

https://youtu.be/fvmId8XUom8
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 24, 2019, 07:14:24 PM


@Dan Yossi Bailin (of Oslo infamy) explains here what was wrong with direct PM vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on November 30, 2019, 06:18:51 PM
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.

http://www.olam-katan.co.il/כתבות/item/6053-ראיון-אומן
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on December 03, 2019, 02:56:28 PM
I saw some articles that said that Bibi would be fine in a unity govt, as long as he gets just 4-5 months first, and then hands it over to Gantz.

I don't see a unity gov happening, but would someone care to explain to me, what Bibi has from only 4-5 months? He can sit back, go to 3rd elections, and he has 5 months just like that until then, and if he wins....
On the other hand, once he would give over the reins to Gantz, he is no longer PM, and the can stand trial. So what is in it for him?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on December 04, 2019, 03:58:14 AM
From what I heard he said 6 months, so he gains like 6 weeks
Still doesn't add up
That's why blue and white say they don't believe him
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on December 04, 2019, 04:37:48 AM
From what I heard he said 6 months, so he gains like 6 weeks
Still doesn't add up
That's why blue and white say they don't believe him

Based on what I heard, it would leave him enough time to pass through the annexation bills that is needed...

Latest this morning is that YB may actually join the right wing govt and they are starting to blame B&W for the lack of the unity govt...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 04, 2019, 05:38:45 AM
I saw some articles that said that Bibi would be fine in a unity govt, as long as he gets just 4-5 months first, and then hands it over to Gantz.

I don't see a unity gov happening, but would someone care to explain to me, what Bibi has from only 4-5 months? He can sit back, go to 3rd elections, and he has 5 months just like that until then, and if he wins....
On the other hand, once he would give over the reins to Gantz, he is no longer PM, and the can stand trial. So what is in it for him?
It's a bluff. But the idea is that the government would break apart after 6 months, as would B&W itself
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Deal Guy on December 05, 2019, 01:07:25 AM
At this point all the big parties know they are going to elections.
Why don't the big parties come together today, and dissolve the Knesset today, so that the election campaign can get underway earlier?
Is it because Bibi has no incentive to get the clock moving?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on December 05, 2019, 02:56:21 PM
Why do it actively when that will make you the villain who wanted third elections, when it can happen passively and not be your fault?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 11, 2019, 09:06:46 PM
Next round scheduled for Mar 2. Unless there's some kind of exogenous shock, there's no reason to believe that we will see anything but d้jเ vu all over again.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 11, 2019, 09:23:19 PM
What happened to direct elections?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shaulyaakov on December 11, 2019, 09:26:48 PM
What happened to direct elections?
The knesset offically disbanded so I don't think they really have that option.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 11, 2019, 09:30:03 PM
What happened to direct elections?
You really expected a transitional government with a hung parliament to pass such a law.  ::)

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 11, 2019, 09:34:16 PM
Doesn't need to be a law. Make it a one-off.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 11, 2019, 09:42:40 PM
Doesn't need to be a law. Make it a one-off.

In a place of law and order, a one-off requires legislation.  ::)

As an aside, I just saw a comment on one of the Israeli websites saying: "what difference will another round make, nothing will change until they reintroduce good old election fraud. "
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 11, 2019, 09:47:02 PM
In a place of law and order, a one-off requires legislation.  ::)
It's a lot easier to pass one-off legislation than permanent change. Blame would go on those that refuse to find a way out of this insanity.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on December 11, 2019, 09:49:56 PM
It's a lot easier to pass one-off legislation than permanent change. Blame would go on those that refuse to find a way out of this insanity.

How would direct PM election be a way out? What can he do without the parliament?

Did Boris Johnson have an easy job once he was appointed PM without full backing in parliament?

And why would any of the players vote for it? What's in it for them?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Dan on December 11, 2019, 10:01:47 PM
How would direct PM election be a way out? What can he do without the parliament?

And why would any of the players vote for it? What's in it for them?
This isn't rocket science. With a directly elected PM there wouldn't be drama about who will be PM first. Alliances will be much easier to make with that off the table.

If you don't go for it you'll be seen as causing an endless elections cycle, which will cost you votes.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on December 12, 2019, 02:36:00 AM
Meanwhile King Bibi will stay PM through all these rounds of elections. He doesnt care :).....Benenet is Defense Minister Smotrich is Transportation Minister Deri is well Deri and the right wing stays in power.

If March brings no change (which seems to be the case according to every poll) then Bibi will be PM through September....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Ergel on December 12, 2019, 07:44:24 AM
And the country will go bankrupt. This is ridiculous already. And there is no way out. We should just schedule the September elections already