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DansDeals Forum => Just Shmooze => Topic started by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Title: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 05:19:44 AM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Boruch Parnes on March 10, 2019, 05:56:21 AM
who do you think is going to win?!!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 06:26:05 AM
who do you think is going to win?!!

Right wing parties should pull it out at the end but BLue and white might end up with more seats (as one party)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: helpyouamdme on March 10, 2019, 10:56:51 AM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
So your mind get influence from what politicians are telling and writing?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 10, 2019, 11:52:57 AM
So your mind get influence from what politicians are telling and writing?

I get influenced by what he has done for his beliefs....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on March 10, 2019, 11:49:41 PM
Don't you think it's a bit unfair to call it the Kahana parties? This was a deal that no body wanted and it was a choice between this or extinction. There will be more communists (Hadash) than Kahanist.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on March 10, 2019, 11:51:40 PM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
serious question, what is his platform besides legalized weed? I've only heard his give vague ideas about more freedom.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on March 11, 2019, 12:21:24 AM
serious question, what is his platform besides legalized weed?

Hey, is עלה ירוק still around? That was their platform for years
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 11, 2019, 07:07:48 AM
serious question, what is his platform besides legalized weed? I've only heard his give vague ideas about more freedom.

Here is his link: https://zehut.org.il/zehut-platform/?lang=en

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Happyguy on March 11, 2019, 07:51:17 AM
I wonder if we have any Meretz supporters here ;) ;) ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 11, 2019, 12:01:42 PM
Here is his link: https://zehut.org.il/zehut-platform/?lang=en
https://zehut.org.il/zehut-knesset-list/?lang=en Picture #18 seems to illustrate well this party.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on March 11, 2019, 11:44:50 PM
https://zehut.org.il/education-plan/?lang=en
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on March 11, 2019, 11:47:33 PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 12, 2019, 06:38:20 AM


Little I disagree with...though the question is reality...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on March 12, 2019, 12:43:40 PM
I'm not an Israeli so my opinion doesn't matter, but he won't enter a coalition unless they agree to legalize weed??
I hope he doesn't pass the minimum threshold.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on March 12, 2019, 02:30:05 PM
I'm not an Israeli so my opinion doesn't matter, but he won't enter a coalition unless they agree to legalize weed??
I hope he doesn't pass the minimum threshold.

False....besides Bibi today said he is going to start looking into legalizing weed as well.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: efflpetzel on March 13, 2019, 02:44:12 PM
False....besides Bibi today said he is going to start looking into legalizing weed as well.
Yup he'll do or say anything that'll get him another vote & apologize after the election to whoever was offended.

I dont know what anyone sees in him anymore, he reminds me of Ehud Barak, who also didnt know when to quit until the writing was all over the wall.

Just wait until Trump makes him give back land for his 'peace plan
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 13, 2019, 04:04:40 PM
I dont know what anyone sees in him anymore, he reminds me of Ehud Barak, who also didnt know when to quit until the writing was all over the wall.
Your "analysis" seems extremely shallow.

Not one of the clowns that are vying to replace him (or have done so in the last decade) comes close to his abilities in any area that makes a difference. And the vast majority of the electorate is aware of this.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: hocker on March 13, 2019, 04:05:16 PM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.
Besides voting for a party you're also voting for it's members and for sure for it's leader.

Feiglin is serious weirdo for the lack of a better word. He's impossible to work with and therefore it will be impossible to keep a coalition going with him.
His #2 Cham Amsalem isn't much better. They're both extremely difficult and complicated individuals, the type that no one wants them in their shul....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 13, 2019, 04:09:02 PM
I personally was thinking Bennett but after reading the Zeut platform I am more inclined to vote Zeut.

The seemingly צד השווה of Bennet and Feiglin/Zehut is that they rely solely on their own judgment, rather than submitting to a Halachic authority. (which is similar to the underlying problem of Zionism which is based on כוחי ועוצם ידי, but that's a separate issue).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Happyguy on March 13, 2019, 04:30:49 PM
The seemingly צד השווה of Bennet and Feiglin/Zehut is that they rely solely on their own judgment, rather than submitting to a Halachic authority. (which is similar to the underlying problem of Zionism which is based on כוחי ועוצם ידי, but that's a separate issue).

And Bibi does? :o
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 13, 2019, 04:42:56 PM
And Bibi does? :o

No. Which is why Torah observant Jews shouldn't be voting for him, but due to his qualifications, the parties that do submit to Halachic authorities should support him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: efflpetzel on March 13, 2019, 08:36:23 PM


but due to his qualifications, the parties that do submit to Halachic authorities should support him.
LOL his qualification is that he has longevity, which is an absurd reason to back him,
In fact the only reason people vote for him the pathetic reason they there's no one better. Basically fear of the unknown is why people vote for him, again a recipe for disaster because one day it'll be more convenient to sell out the Left/charedim & he'll have no problem in doing so.

The man has no spine all he's interested is staying in power.

People forget that he was the one that gave back a tremendous amount of land at
the Wye Accords

Do you really see him saying no to Trump if the deal he presents is bad.
I don't.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Happyguy on March 16, 2019, 03:06:09 PM
No. Which is why Torah observant Jews shouldn't be voting for him, but due to his qualifications, the parties that do submit to Halachic authorities should support him.

Should we have also supported David Ben-Gurion due to his qualifications?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 11:21:28 AM
Should we have also supported David Ben-Gurion due to his qualifications?
IDK. Wasn't around in his time.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 11:21:43 AM
https://youtu.be/52TJS8yj_20
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 12:40:30 PM
If you can read Hebrew, then read http://www.news1.co.il/Archive/003-D-133146-00.html which will shed some light on the types of accusations fielded and the facts behind them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 19, 2019, 06:03:57 PM
Very interesting interview (in Hebrew) with Caroline Glick. https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/122929/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Denverite on March 20, 2019, 12:33:09 AM
What a great ad! If you don’t want to watch the video (or your filter blocks it) the article has a transcript. Don’t have to support the party but just a great political ad:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/44847/israeli-justice-minister-hank-berrien
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on March 25, 2019, 12:09:33 PM
I dont know what anyone sees in him anymore, he reminds me of Ehud Barak, who also didnt know when to quit until the writing was all over the wall.

https://www.maariv.co.il/journalists/opinions/Article-690718

Can't say I agree with everything this guy writes, but the main point is in the last few paragraphs, which IMNSHO, are indisputable (except for the very last one, which goes into predictions that I would rather avoid, as there's a lot that doesn't even depend on the Israeli leader himself).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 02, 2019, 02:27:12 PM
LOL his qualification is that he has longevity, which is an absurd reason to back him,
In fact the only reason people vote for him the pathetic reason they there's no one better. Basically fear of the unknown is why people vote for him, again a recipe for disaster because one day it'll be more convenient to sell out the Left/charedim & he'll have no problem in doing so.

The man has no spine all he's interested is staying in power.

People forget that he was the one that gave back a tremendous amount of land at
the Wye Accords

Do you really see him saying no to Trump if the deal he presents is bad.
I don't.

Check out the video on YouTube.com Never saw such comments before.


Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 11:28:39 AM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 11:38:55 AM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.

I have no clue what will happen on a national level, though I do think Bibi will remain Prime Minister, the only question is at what cost and how hard will he have to work to piece together a coalition.

What intrigues me the most and where I am willing to make a guess, knowing that I will probably be wrong, is how the vote in Kfar Chabad will split up. For that I guess we will see 55%-65% Aguda, 30%-40% Ichud Yemin, 3%-7% Shas, 1%-4% Zehut.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 12:01:45 PM
I have no clue what will happen on a national level, though I do think Bibi will remain Prime Minister, the only question is at what cost and how hard will he have to work to piece together a coalition.

What intrigues me the most and where I am willing to make a guess, knowing that I will probably be wrong, is how the vote in Kfar Chabad will split up. For that I guess we will see 55%-65% Aguda, 30%-40% Ichud Yemin, 3%-7% Shas, 1%-4% Zehut.

Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 12:02:47 PM
Interesting tweet from Bibi -
From earlier this morning in the US (about 12 noon in Israel). Bibi went to the beach to convince people to go vote, that he's losing to Lapid and Gantz.

Even if Bibi gets the lower end of polls at 25-26, and Gantz gets 30+ - can Gantz really get a coalition together? and with whom?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 12:55:45 PM
Realistic analysis:

https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/130313/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 12:57:38 PM
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

What do you know about Kfar Chabad that makes you think so?

IMHO those that will vote for Zehut in Kfar Chabad would mostly be OTD (or rebellious but not considered OTD) youngsters, and a handful of others.

I might be wrong, and I don't claim to have a crystal ball, or to even be able to guess things on a national level. But I do get some wind of what goes on within Kfar Chabad where I have family and friends.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 12:59:40 PM
What do you know about Kfar Chabad that makes you think so?

I might be wrong, and I don't claim to have a crystal ball, or to even be able to guess things on a national level. But I do get some wind of what goes on within Kfar Chabad where I have family and friends.

Sorry, I meant in the general elections...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 01:03:09 PM
Sorry, I meant in the general elections...
I sincerely hope they get a lot less than expected based on polls, though once a party is in, then IINM they get at least 3 MK's, which in this case would include the highly problematic Amsalem.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 01:06:51 PM
Realistic analysis:

https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/130313/

Thanks - it looks like 'Gevalt' is the theme of the day - https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/129735/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 01:09:17 PM
Thanks - it looks like 'Gevalt' is the theme of the day - https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/129735/


;D

Quote
19:00 – מה זה בכלל געוואלד? זמן טוב לברר.

קודם כל, בעברית אפשר לכתוב "גוואלד", או כמו ביידיש – געוואלד. בשום אופן לא "גוועלד" או צורה אחרת שבה העי"ן נמצאת אחרי הו"וים.
המילה מקורה ביידיש, ואליה היא הגיעה מהגרמנית: המילה Gewalt פירושה "כוח", "אלימות", "שליטה ו"סמכות", וכך בצירופים כמו:
Naturgewalt – כוח טבע
Häusliche Gewalt – אלימות ביתית (דהיינו, בין בני זוג, ובדרך כלל מה שמכונה בעברית אלימות נגד נשים)
Staatsgewalt – סמכות המדינה, שליטת המדינה
אז איך הגענו מ"כוח" ל"געוואלד" שמשמעותו קריאה לעזרה? כמו דברים אחרים ביהדות, דרך אלוהים. ככל הנראה, יהודים דוברי יידיש נהגו לקרוא לכוח עליון, או ביקשו כוח מהאל, בעת צרה. הם זעקו "אוי, געוואלד", שפירושו מעין "תן לי כוח", וכשנשכחה המשמעות המקורית של המילה – נותרה רק המשמעות המשנית, של קריאה לעזרה ולהצלה.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on April 09, 2019, 01:19:00 PM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.
I don't think so. It might be tight. I believe Bibi will pull it off.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on April 09, 2019, 01:21:07 PM
 When can we expect to see results? Where is the best place to watch live results come in?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 01:25:34 PM
When can we expect to see results? Where is the best place to watch live results come in?

Polls close at 10PM (3PM EST) results should start trickling in right away but by midnight they usually have an idea and by Israel morning time it usually is official. I24 news is probably best (you need to make an account with a CC)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 01:44:58 PM
I don't think so. It might be tight. I believe Bibi will pull it off.

I think Bibi will lose to Gantz in seats, but is more likely to pull of the coalition - the golden question is - who are his bedfellows?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 01:55:49 PM
I think Bibi will lose to Gantz in seats, but is more likely to pull of the coalition - the golden question is - who are his bedfellows?

That is almost a guarantee the only question we need to ask is if Bibi goes into bed with Gantz to make a coalition...
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 09, 2019, 01:57:34 PM
This is an interesting Analysis - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-election-threshold-could-determine-next-prime-minister-1001281549

Here is what I am not clear on - let's say 4 parties get 2.5% each but fail to clear 3.25. That's about 10% of the vote, or 12 seats worth. How do those twelve get allocated - do they just ignore the 10% as if they didn't vote, and then split it among the other 90% proportionally (i.e. if Bibi gets 25% of the total vote, he should get 30 seats, but now his 25/100% = 27.7/90% he gets 33?)



 

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 02:03:11 PM
This is an interesting Analysis - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-election-threshold-could-determine-next-prime-minister-1001281549

Here is what I am not clear on - let's say 4 parties get 2.5% each but fail to clear 3.25. That's about 10% of the vote, or 12 seats worth. How do those twelve get allocated - do they just ignore the 10% as if they didn't vote, and then split it among the other 90% proportionally (i.e. if Bibi gets 25% of the total vote, he should get 30 seats, but now his 25/100% = 27.7/90% he gets 33?)

You are correct in your understanding, which is why people say not to vote for parties close to the threshold, as those votes might just end up being wasted. This is where Israeli electoral math comes into play.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 02:17:28 PM
IMHO the biggest surprise of this election is how fast Gantz learned and transformed himself.

Compare his first speech, where any animation was obviously difficult for him and scripted, to how animated he seems to be now when he talks.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 02:29:06 PM
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/politics/1554720218-analysis-low-arab-voter-turnout-won-t-be-good-news-for-anybody

https://youtu.be/TtMFjKYZ6bA
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 09, 2019, 02:40:53 PM
Hashem Yerachim!

Report:Preliminary count of samples brings defeat to the right-wing
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 03:09:02 PM
Channel 11 saying Netanyahu has 64 seat potential coalition. (That's assuming Bennet is out).

(https://i.imgur.com/HFja1mN.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/MxI5v7y.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/Uc7fSPX.png)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 03:31:11 PM
Will we see a repeat of what we saw in the 2016 US elections?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 03:44:10 PM
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

Based on exit polls, will we see someone joining @ChaimMoskowitz for a feast of Crow?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: gingyguy on April 09, 2019, 03:55:14 PM
Based on exit polls, will we see someone joining @ChaimMoskowitz for a feast of Crow?
so that's where he is!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:02:29 PM
Also to be noted that nothing is final until the votes of the soldiers are counted, so we are days away from final results, especially with parties very close, and on either side of the minimum threshold.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:28:10 PM
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.

Here's my prediction - Nir Barkat is being groomed to take Netanyahu's place after Netanyahu retires.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ~King Lake~ on April 09, 2019, 04:31:13 PM
Gantz is Prime minister until 1 am
lapid until 5 am
and bibi is from the morning for 4 years
 ;) ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ilherman on April 09, 2019, 04:43:18 PM
Hashem Yerachim!

Report:Preliminary count of samples brings defeat to the right-wing
Reminds me of the 2016 exit polls.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:47:55 PM
Reminds me of the 2016 exit polls.

Though in the US, Clinton ended up not speaking. Whereas the Israelis already had Peres once crowned by the exit polls as the next PM, hold a victory speech, only to discover that he was unable to form a coalition government.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:52:00 PM
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

Someone seems to have egg on his face and is signaling desperation.

https://www.makorrishon.co.il/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/%D7%A1%D7%A8%D7%98%D7%95%D7%9F-%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%99%D7%92%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%9F-1.mp4?_=11
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 04:59:23 PM
https://players.brightcove.net/665003303001/4k5gFJHRe_default/index.html?videoId=6024306657001

Important point at 4:50
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 05:20:49 PM
As of now, here's a snippet of real results out of 29,403 valid votes counted:  ;D

נ נח - הרשימה הממלכתית - תרימו את הראש   ףץ   0.01%   4
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 05:39:54 PM
I have no clue what will happen on a national level, though I do think Bibi will remain Prime Minister, the only question is at what cost and how hard will he have to work to piece together a coalition.

What intrigues me the most and where I am willing to make a guess, knowing that I will probably be wrong, is how the vote in Kfar Chabad will split up. For that I guess we will see 55%-65% Aguda, 30%-40% Ichud Yemin, 3%-7% Shas, 1%-4% Zehut.

Seems like I was wrong:

תוצאות סופיות בכפר חב"ד:

6 קלפיות שנספרו:
טב – איחוד הימין, מובילה בפער ניכר מהאחרות עם 1551 קולות. -57.31%
ג' – יהדות התורה רושמת 563 קולות -20.80%
הליכוד עם נתניהו מביאים תוצאה מפתיעה: 448 קולות -16.56%
רשימת ש"ס עם 68 קולות -2.51%
'זהות' של פייגלין עם 76 קולות -2.80%

I guess with certain developments in recent years that went counter to the Rebbe's instructions, I should have predicted more of a vote which cannot be aligned with the Rebbe's directive to vote for המפלגה החרדית ביותר. Very unfortunate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Mordyk on April 09, 2019, 05:44:10 PM
https://www.vosizneias.com/320805/2019/04/09/jerusalem-gantz-declares-victory-over-netanyahu-hails-historic-vote/


how is he so convinced if final polls arent out?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 05:50:34 PM
https://www.vosizneias.com/320805/2019/04/09/jerusalem-gantz-declares-victory-over-netanyahu-hails-historic-vote/


how is he so convinced if final polls arent out?

What do you want him to say? Let's wait for final results so we can concede defeat?

He's taking advantage of his high point in the cycle to create some buzz, but it will fade away in the face of reality and they all know it!. An analogy would be if HRC would have come out to celebrate and declare winning the popular vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 09, 2019, 05:57:59 PM
What do you want him to say? Let's wait for final results so we can concede defeat?

He's taking advantage of his high point in the cycle to create some buzz, but it will fade away in the face of reality and they all know it!.

To add, if he succeeds in getting the story to be about how he won, he has an increased (although still slight) chance of forming a coalition.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 06:22:19 PM
To add, if he succeeds in getting the story to be about how he won, he has an increased (although still slight) chance of forming a coalition.

Lieberman, Kahlon, Shas, Aguda, Ichud Yemin have all pledged to recommend Netanyahu. Doing otherwise for any of them would be political suicide. Gantz has NO CHANCE.

The only chances of survival parts of the Blue & White party have, is if they break up to the parts that formed them, and then some parts might join Netanyahu and survive. Maybe if Lapid & Co. were out, Netanyahu could talk to the rest. But Lapid is a non-starter.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 09, 2019, 07:28:21 PM
Gantz is Prime minister until 1 am
lapid until 5 am
and bibi is from the morning for 4 years
 ;) ;)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 07:36:54 PM
At this point it seems like Gantz will be hosting the biggest Crow Feast of the century.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: myi on April 09, 2019, 07:38:29 PM
At this point it seems like Gantz will be hosting the biggest Crow Feast of the century.
where's @JTZ?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 07:45:34 PM
where's @JTZ?
Having a feast with @ChaimMoskowitz
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on April 09, 2019, 07:48:09 PM
At this point it seems like Gantz will be hosting the biggest Crow Feast of the century.
Or he can just go the Stacy Abrams route and never admit that he lost.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 09, 2019, 08:05:15 PM


Or he can just go the dems route and never admit that he lost because there's an open investigation

Ftfy
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzyul on April 09, 2019, 08:09:09 PM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 08:12:01 PM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.

It definitely helps with the greater numbers of Shas and UTJ (with Shas pre-pledging support for Netanyahu, which wasn't that obvious in the past. Maybe UTJ should learn from them and make a similar pledge in the future).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 09, 2019, 08:51:27 PM
It definitely helps with the greater numbers of Shas and UTJ (with Shas pre-pledging support for Netanyahu, which wasn't that obvious in the past. Maybe UTJ should learn from them and make a similar pledge in the future).

Im pretty sure I remember seeing ג did pledge for Bibi. They for sure said that they would never sit in a coalition with Lapid.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 09, 2019, 08:57:31 PM
Who won?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 09, 2019, 09:01:48 PM
Who won?
Looks like netanyahu is slightly ahead of gantz, and right wing Bloc has the majority of seats
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 09:04:14 PM
Im pretty sure I remember seeing ג did pledge for Bibi. They for sure said that they would never sit in a coalition with Lapid.
They definitely said Lapid is a non-starter, but they didn't put Bibi in the center of their campaign like Shas did. Had they done so, maybe they would have got more votes in Kfar Chabad and Beitar (amongst other places) rather than people voting Likud.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 09, 2019, 11:35:33 PM
They definitely said Lapid is a non-starter, but they didn't put Bibi in the center of their campaign like Shas did. Had they done so, maybe they would have got more votes in Kfar Chabad and Beitar (amongst other places) rather than people voting Likud.
Who do chabad officially vote for?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: whYME on April 09, 2019, 11:37:11 PM
Who do chabad officially vote for?

I guess with certain developments in recent years that went counter to the Rebbe's instructions, I should have predicted more of a vote which cannot be aligned with the Rebbe's directive to vote for המפלגה החרדית ביותר. Very unfortunate.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on April 09, 2019, 11:37:23 PM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 09, 2019, 11:47:09 PM
Who do chabad officially vote for?

With one historical exception (in which the Rebbe instructed to support UTJ), the Rebbe's instructions have always been for individuals to vote for מפלגה החרדית ביותר, and that Chabad doesn't endorse any party.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on April 10, 2019, 12:20:30 AM
the problem with some is that they side with Arabs against Jews other then that we never believed the Zionism is the correct path, although today's generation is much different as most of them are tinokos shenishbu.

someone once asked rav oirbach if they should protest with the arabs he responded CH'V the arabs protest the little bit of yiddishkeit that they have while we protest the lack of yiddishkeit
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Baruch on April 10, 2019, 12:26:21 AM
It definitely helps with the greater numbers of Shas and UTJ (with Shas pre-pledging support for Netanyahu, which wasn't that obvious in the past. Maybe UTJ should learn from them and make a similar pledge in the future).
From https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Gantz-beats-Netanyahu-with-largest-number-of-seats-coalition-unclear-586230
President Reuven Rivlin will meet with the heads of the parties that cross the threshold next week. Shas, UTJ and URP announced late Tuesday that they would recommend Netanyahu to form the government. Kahlon and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman said they would wait for the final results.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on April 10, 2019, 12:30:56 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
R' Reuven Grozovsky and R' Elchonon both have plenty written on the topic.
Title: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:36:09 AM
From https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Gantz-beats-Netanyahu-with-largest-number-of-seats-coalition-unclear-586230
President Reuven Rivlin will meet with the heads of the parties that cross the threshold next week. Shas, UTJ and URP announced late Tuesday that they would recommend Netanyahu to form the government. Kahlon and Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman said they would wait for the final results.
Announcing this after the election, or even a couple of days before, isn’t enough to calm and convince the base that they wouldn’t sell out to Gantz if the opportunity presented itself (especially when some of the MKs such as Gafni and Eichler are perceived as left wingers).

Contrast this with Deri who knew that his base unequivocally wants Bibi as PM, so he campaigned under the banner of Shas supporting Netanyahu for PM, telling people that by voting for Shas they get two benefits for the price of one, they get the Shas social agenda with absolute support for Bibi as PM.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on April 10, 2019, 01:12:22 AM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: YitzyS on April 10, 2019, 01:14:26 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
There was a book published recently called “The Empty Wagon”. I didn’t read it but I heard it’s excellent and very extensive.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: YitzyS on April 10, 2019, 01:23:14 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
Sent PM
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: User6669 on April 10, 2019, 01:45:29 AM
Congratulations Netanyahu.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ludmila on April 10, 2019, 01:47:35 AM
Congratulations Netanyahu.
Official or not yet?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 10, 2019, 02:56:34 AM
Official or not yet?

It is official that he will be Prime Minister, how many seats he gets is not official.  I am shocked by Zeut's and Bennetts destruction. Shaked aligned herself with the wrong person.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on April 10, 2019, 06:38:23 AM
R' Reuven Grozovsky and R' Elchonon both have plenty written on the topic.
Thanx where would i find it? Is it in a Sefer somewhere?
I think my friend would only be able to read it if it’s in English
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 10, 2019, 07:08:53 AM
Thanx where would i find it? Is it in a Sefer somewhere?
I think my friend would only be able to read it if it’s in English
https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Wagon-Zionisms-journey-identity/dp/1642555541


I haven't read it,but my impression is that he had an agenda to marry the litvish hashkofa with satmar.

So in reality he's probably 80% accurate and 20% satmar influence. Not the pure hashkofa.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 08:10:52 AM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.

It helps with Bibi's legal troubles.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 08:38:30 AM
It is official that he will be Prime Minister, how many seats he gets is not official.  I am shocked by Zeut's and Bennetts destruction. Shaked aligned herself with the wrong person.
Zehut wasn't destroyed, it was never more than a cloud of smoke (pun intended). The non-commitment to support either support Netanyahu or Gantz definitely didn't help anyone who wanted to get in.

As for the New Right, they didn't really put forth a compelling story. They are seen as spineless opportunistic troublemakers that eventually do the right thing. So if my choice is between Shaked and another vote that might get Ben Gvir in, I am sure many would choose the latter.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 09:39:05 AM
Official or not yet?
https://ladaat.co/archives/24853

Probably by tomorrow afternoon (Israel time) we will have final results.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 10, 2019, 09:50:22 AM
With one historical exception (in which the Rebbe instructed to support UTJ), the Rebbe's instructions have always been for individuals to vote for מפלגה החרדית ביותר, and that Chabad doesn't endorse any party.

So who generally is the מפלגה החרדית ביותר that you are saying UTJ was the exception?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: doodle on April 10, 2019, 09:50:52 AM
https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Wagon-Zionisms-journey-identity/dp/1642555541


I haven't read it,but my impression is that he had an agenda to marry the litvish hashkofa with satmar.

So in reality he's probably 80% accurate and 20% satmar influence. Not the pure hashkofa.
No way near 80% accurate.
Recreating history , choosing the Gedolim/Shitos that fit the narrative. Partially accurate but incorrect overall view/agenda .
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 10, 2019, 09:53:05 AM
Would anyone know where I could find info on the litvishe shita on the state of Israel in general and specifically voting?
 I was shmoozing with a friend today and he was all upset about what satmer is doing now with their asifa in The stadium this week and their ads that they put out, saying that Torah Jews don’t believe in the zionist state. He was saying how it’s a chillul Hashem. So I answered him that the truth is, that our (litvishe/yeshivish) shita is much closer to what satmer holds than to what Netanyahu ( or more correctly the zionists of old) holds. And he was shocked, but I think I’m right. Does anyone know of any books or a website that would explain it?
You have it wrong:

Satmar's main priority with this demonstration is not to protest against Bibi - it's to protest against most of Chareidi Jews and their Gedolim for not being in line with their "shitah"....

It is indeed terrible......
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 09:54:33 AM
So who generally is the מפלגה החרדית ביותר that you are saying UTJ was the exception?

The exception was publicly and officially supporting a specific party, rather than leaving it to individual judgment, which is based on subjective opinions. I have no doubt in my mind that if Gafni and Eichler weren't in the UTJ list, UTJ would get a much larger portion of the Kfar Chabad vote.

Some of the logic used, is that a true חרדי would know that פיקוח נפש goes ahead of many other things, and supporting a left wing government (or agenda of appeasement) is regarded as Pikuach Nefesh.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 10, 2019, 09:56:05 AM
The exception was publicly and officially supporting a specific party, rather than leaving it to individual judgment, which is based on subjective opinions. I have no doubt in my mind that if Gafni and Eichler weren't in the UTJ list, UTJ would get a much larger portion of the Kfar Chabad vote.
Got it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 10, 2019, 10:00:20 AM
The exception was publicly and officially supporting a specific party, rather than leaving it to individual judgment, which is based on subjective opinions. I have no doubt in my mind that if Gafni and Eichler weren't in the UTJ list, UTJ would get a much larger portion of the Kfar Chabad vote.

Some of the logic used, is that a true חרדי would know that פיקוח נפש goes ahead of many other things, and supporting a left wing government (or agenda of appeasement) is regarded as Pikuach Nefesh.
So Shas?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:06:59 AM
As for the New Right, they didn't really put forth a compelling story. They are seen as spineless opportunistic troublemakers that eventually do the right thing.

Why would someone vote for them rather than Likud? Did they make that case?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:08:04 AM
So Shas?

Even worse from a shleimus ha'aretz perspective.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 10:13:26 AM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on April 10, 2019, 10:18:09 AM

I think my friend would only be able to read it if it’s in English
definitely not english
https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Wagon-Zionisms-journey-identity/dp/1642555541


I haven't read it,but my impression is that he had an agenda to marry the litvish hashkofa with satmar.

So in reality he's probably 80% accurate and 20% satmar influence. Not the pure hashkofa.
He's much closer to Satmar than that.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:40:19 AM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....

B"H, now that we have a dose of sinas chinam this thread is a real Israeli election thread.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chinagel on April 10, 2019, 10:46:46 AM
B"H, now that we have a dose of sinas chinam this thread is a real Israeli election thread.
Look in the mirror.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 10:47:49 AM
Look in the mirror.

Huh?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 11:06:51 AM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....

You start sounding like CBC when you write like that.

Not saying that I agree with the writer, but if you want to understand the reasoning of people to vote for the United Right Wing read http://col.org.il/%D7%97%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%97%D7%91%D7%93_%D7%9C%D7%9E%D7%94_%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%99_%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%98%D7%91_%D7%95%D7%9C%D7%90_%D7%90%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%92_%D7%93%D7%A2%D7%94_117541.html

Which also explains some of the history where Shas is

Even worse from a shleimus ha'aretz perspective.

It would be a long stretch to call Shas מפלגה החרדית ביותר (and even a greater stretch to do so for the United Right Wing). Accepting ministerial positions, especially in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, or at the Ministry of Interior, presents very serious Halachic problems.

As for Shleimus Ha'aretz (or Pikuach Nefesh), while it is true that Shas (and specifically Arye Deri) have an extremely tainted history, I think at this point they have learned their lesson. (Though I would think Deri learned it better, as he has personally suffered, whereas Gafni (and Litzman) never saw real personal consequences for their support of Gaza withdrawal.

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 11:47:19 AM
Electoral math:

(https://i.imgur.com/jLQhCQr.png)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 11:49:22 AM

It would be a long stretch to call Shas מפלגה החרדית ביותר. Accepting ministerial positions, especially in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, or at the Ministry of Interior, presents very serious Halachic problems.


Aren't all of their decisions based on the psokim of their rabbonim? Is Rabbi Sholom Cohen (or Rabbi Ovadia Yosef) less charedi than the rabbonim of ג?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 11:52:14 AM
Aren't all of their decisions based on the psokim of their rabbonim? Is Rabbi Sholom Cohen (or Rabbi Ovadia Yosef) less charedi than the rabbonim of ג?

Would any of the Rabbonim of ג ever consider accepting or running for a position of Chief Rabbi of the State of Israel?

ETA: Read https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=13937.msg1921517#msg1921517 and follow the link to read the booklet יהדות התורה והמדינה. This might give people some better perspective of where Chabad stands.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:15:16 PM
How's this for a possible scenario:

Blue & White disintegrates, either entirely or into the 3 or 4 parts that united in order to form it, and some of those end up supporting a Netanyahu coalition, while Lieberman remains out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 12:19:58 PM
How's this for a possible scenario:

Blue & White disintegrates, either entirely or into the 3 or 4 parts that united in order to form it, and some of those end up supporting a Netanyahu coalition, while Lieberman remains out.

All is possible. It's crucial for Charedim that Bennett passes with the military votes. He needs to get 5% among them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:22:35 PM
All is possible. It's crucial for Charedim that Bennett passes with the military votes. He needs to get 5% among them.
I'm not so sure that is true. While Bennet is probably easier to deal with than Lieberman, he's a bit of a troublemaker for no good reason, and if he gets in with 4 or 5 seats (the difference in votes is minuscule) who loses?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 12:48:21 PM
I'm not so sure that is true. While Bennet is probably easier to deal with than Lieberman, he's a bit of a troublemaker for no good reason, and if he gets in with 4 or 5 seats (the difference in votes is minuscule) who loses?

UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 12:56:11 PM
UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.

I don't know if that is accurate, the math is very complex (see image I posted above). Lieberman is indeed a headache, and Netanyahu knows that UTJ and Shas are probably the most reliable partners.

As for losing the 8th, that would be a shame. I think Pindrus is a very talented guy (I've heard good things about him from people that worked with him when he was mayor of Beitar) who has been a victim of political games (mostly by his own faction) played over the last decade or so.

I have a sense (maybe a hope) that the last local election in Israel were the low point of מחלוקת, and we are on a way up from here towards productive unity with mutual respect. Let's hope that we see only positive and uniting actions and words henceforth.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 02:26:46 PM
Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.

Bibi can get a very narrow coalition without Lieberman now, if he includes Kahlon. Not saying that he's going to do it, but it's possible.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 10, 2019, 02:52:11 PM
Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 03:02:20 PM
Bibi can get a very narrow coalition without Lieberman now, if he includes Kahlon. Not saying that he's going to do it, but it's possible.

Only 60 without him now. Things will shift around tomorrow with the last quarter million votes counted.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 10, 2019, 03:02:36 PM
Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely

He won't do it.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 03:34:33 PM
Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely

You really think so?

Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: zh cohen on April 10, 2019, 05:00:24 PM
Only 60 without him now. Things will shift around tomorrow with the last quarter million votes counted.

I see now. The numbers I was looking at had Likud at 37, and Balad not making it in.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on April 10, 2019, 06:37:37 PM
I recall that there is a law that you need a certain number of MKs to break off from a party, I guess the most ideal option would be to convince enough center-right MKs to leave Gantz and then you won’t need Lieberman
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 10, 2019, 07:10:06 PM
I recall that there is a law that you need a certain number of MKs to break off from a party, I guess the most ideal option would be to convince enough center-right MKs to leave Gantz and then you won’t need Lieberman

Netanyahu obviously had moles within the Gantz campaign/close circles, as evidenced by leaks of recordings. While Lapid is too arrogant (besides for being persona non-grata), and Gantz would need to backtrack on public statements he made, I will not be surprised if we see defectors or a breakup.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: doodle on April 10, 2019, 08:11:08 PM
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....
From many other things, this rings true ..
can you link sources to this pattern ?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 01:37:50 AM
UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.
Not final yet, but if indeed Bennet gets in, while it seems to be most detrimental to Blue & White, it hurts by having UTJ lose the 8th seat, as well as United Right Wing losing a seat, which keeps Ben Gvir (the only candidate of that list that I would have loved to see in, as he is great entertainment and a wonderful thorn in the side of the left wing) further away from getting in.

Quote
אם אכן תיכנס מפלגת הימין החדש לכנסת, משמעות הדבר כי מפלגת כחול לבן תרד מ-35 ל-33 מנדטים. איחוד מפלגות הימין תרד במנדט מ-5 ל-4 מנדטים, וכך גם מפלגת יהדות התורה שתרד מ-8 מנדטים ל-7.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 11, 2019, 05:35:01 AM
Not final yet, but if indeed Bennet gets in, while it seems to be most detrimental to Blue & White, it hurts by having UTJ lose the 8th seat, as well as United Right Wing losing a seat, which keeps Ben Gvir (the only candidate of that list that I would have loved to see in, as he is great entertainment and a wonderful thorn in the side of the left wing) further away from getting in.

Seems Bennett is out and Likud is at 37.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: churnbabychurn on April 11, 2019, 06:02:24 AM
You start sounding like CBC when you write like that.

Not saying that I agree with the writer, but if you want to understand the reasoning of people to vote for the United Right Wing read http://col.org.il/%D7%97%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%97%D7%91%D7%93_%D7%9C%D7%9E%D7%94_%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%99_%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%98%D7%91_%D7%95%D7%9C%D7%90_%D7%90%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%92_%D7%93%D7%A2%D7%94_117541.html

Which also explains some of the history where Shas is

It would be a long stretch to call Shas מפלגה החרדית ביותר (and even a greater stretch to do so for the United Right Wing). Accepting ministerial positions, especially in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, or at the Ministry of Interior, presents very serious Halachic problems.

As for Shleimus Ha'aretz (or Pikuach Nefesh), while it is true that Shas (and specifically Arye Deri) have an extremely tainted history, I think at this point they have learned their lesson. (Though I would think Deri learned it better, as he has personally suffered, whereas Gafni (and Litzman) never saw real personal consequences for their support of Gaza withdrawal.
Oh stop being so sensitive. If it's true that y'all vote for mizrachi then that's all he said.

And please stop saying rediculous things like Shas and ג not being the most charedi. They clearly and obviously are. Duh.

Even the article you linked doesn't claim that.

The aurgument is that not having extreme right ring views is pikuach nefesh so you can vote for mizrachi. Ok, obviously this is not something 90% of the frum world agreed with but I guess you are entitled.

You are also not entitled to pull out your " sinas chinam" card when it is you who separate from the rest of the frum world for elections..
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 02:31:04 PM
Oh stop being so sensitive. If it's true that y'all vote for mizrachi then that's all he said.

All I said was that when @Moshe123 starts making assumptions or drawing conclusions as to what others think or feel, he sounds like you.

And please stop saying rediculous things like Shas and ג not being the most charedi. They clearly and obviously are. Duh.

Though you are the only one who seems to have a reading comprehension problem (as well as a problem using simple logic).

מפגלה החרדית ביותר can only be one party. This ain't your kids, who can all be the most loved, we are talking about a certain criterion for voting for a political party, where you can only vote for one. So which one of the two is it in your opinion? I clearly outlined a certain very obvious difference between the two.

I will furthermore state, that while it would have been wonderful to see even more unity, it is quite obvious that the reason Shas didn't unite with UTJ was in order to attract the Sephardic votes that wouldn't likely vote so easily for a "Chareidi" block. They might have made a right calculation. IDK.

Even the article you linked doesn't claim that.

The aurgument is that not having extreme right ring views is pikuach nefesh so you can vote for mizrachi. Ok, obviously this is not something 90% of the frum world agreed with but I guess you are entitled.
I didn't say the article said anything about being Charedi or not. That being said, if a person seems and acts "Charedi" but is a blatantly practices Mesirah, and not only in דיני ממונות, but even in דיני נפשות. Whereas another might not seem outwardly Charedi, might be more independent in actions and decisions, rather than deferring to דעת תורה, but will by no means put another Jew in danger, which one is more "Charedi"?

You are also not entitled to pull out your " sinas chinam" card when it is you who separate from the rest of the frum world for elections..
I definitely didn't draw the "sinas chinam" card, though when it comes to involvement in politics, the Rebbe's shitta is clearly different that most of the rest of the "frum world". The Rebbe being the only legitimate spokesperson for Chabad clearly stated that Chabad does not join or endorse any party, and whatever political (as in policy issues, rather than political parties) involvement exists, it is only in things that are relevant to כלל ישראל, rather than advancing sectorial needs.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 11, 2019, 02:33:31 PM
No assumptions.

https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=696

Results from Kfar Chabad.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 02:40:40 PM
No assumptions.

https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=696

Results from Kfar Chabad.

I posted those results before they were made public on the Israeli government website, and lamented them.

However, when you write
Quote
Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it
that is making assumptions about where people's sympathies lie.

When Litzman, Gafni and Deri (and possibly also Eichler, I'm not sure) all have a proven record of aiding and abetting government decisions that are deemed Pikuach Nefesh, people have a hard time voting for them in a clear conscience. It's that simple. (not saying that I agree or disagree, or what I would have done, but just stating the simple reasoning, that has nothing to do with sympathies. Chabad is and was always opposed to Zionism, but doesn't let that get in the way of loving and caring for every Jew, even if they are Zionists).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 11, 2019, 02:51:35 PM
I posted those results before they were made public on the Israeli government website, and lamented them.

However, when you writethat is making assumptions about where people's sympathies lie.

When Litzman, Gafni and Deri (and possibly also Eichler, I'm not sure) all have a proven record of aiding and abetting government decisions that are deemed Pikuach Nefesh, people have a hard time voting for them in a clear conscience. It's that simple. (not saying that I agree or disagree, or what I would have done, but just stating the simple reasoning, that has nothing to do with sympathies. Chabad is and was always opposed to Zionism, but doesn't let that get in the way of loving and caring for every Jew, even if they are Zionists).

I assume you mean that they are voting opposite the side that would be deemed pikuach nefesh.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 02:59:15 PM
I assume you mean that they are voting opposite the side that would be deemed pikuach nefesh.

Deri was a minister in the government that approved the Oslo accords and didn't vote against them.

Litzman was AWOL at a vote regarding the Gaza withdrawal.

Gafni actually voted against the Gaza withdrawal but is viewed as aiding and abetting by helping vote for the government budget, which allowed the government to last beyond the Gaza withdrawal rather than fall before the withdrawal could be carried out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 11, 2019, 05:18:38 PM
Final results published, only change seems to be Likud gaining 1 seat at the expense of UTJ  :( However, while these results do seem final, the official count gets published next Wednesday (ask @Yehuda57 as to when that is, he might tell you that the official count is being published this Wednesday).

Let's hope Lieberman doesn't end up being too much of a troublemaker, and that URW manages to get Ben-Gvir in as they have pledged to do, so we get some good entertainment and a thorn in the Lefties sides.

Quote
ועדת הבחירות המרכזית פרסמה הערב (חמישי) את התוצאות הסופיות של הבחירות לכנסת ה-21 שנערכו ביום שלישי השבוע, לאחר סיום הבדיקות וחישוב תוצאות הסכמי העודפים.

על פי התוצאות הסופיות הליכוד היא המפלגה הגדולה ביותר עם 36 מנדטים, במקום השני כחול לבן עם 35 מנדטים.

ש"ס מקבלת 8 מנדטים, יהדות התורה 7 מנדטים, העבודה 6 מנדטים, חד"ש-תע"ל 6 מנדטים, ישראל ביתנו 5 מנדטים, איחוד מפלגות הימין 5 מנדטים, כולנו 4 מנדטים, מרצ 4 מנדטים ורע"מ-בל"ד גם כן 4 מנדטים.

על פי התוצאות הסופיות עומד גוש הימין על 65 מנדטים ואילו גוש השמאל עומד על 55 מנדטים. ‏לימין החדש היו חסרים 1461 קולות כדי להיכנס לכנסת.

ו"ר ועדת הבחירות המרכזית, השופט חנן מלצר, הדגיש כי התוצאות שפורסמו הערב ''אינן התוצאות הרשמיות שיפורסמו ב-17 באפריל 2019 ויוגשו לנשיא המדינה.

''אנו שומרים לעצמנו את הזכות לבחון את התוצאות בכלי בקרה נוספים שונים, שמפעילה הוועדה, לצורך שיקוף ההצבעה הבוחרים בתוצאות, באופן המיטיבי ובהתאם לחוק הבחירות לכנסת, ולכן תוצאות אלה עוד כפופות לשינויים והתאמות", הוסיף מלצר.

במפלגת הימין החדש הגיבו: ''התוצאות שפורסמו אינן סופיות, ואנחנו ממשיכים להילחם. אנו מצפים מהתקשורת לגלות קצת יותר רצינות בדיווחיה.

''לאורך היום הוקם במטה המפלגה חמ"ל שריכז כ-1,000 כשלים וליקויים בהליכי ההצבעה. מיד בתחילת השבוע נקבל לידינו את הפרוטוקולים ומאות המתנדבים שלנו ישוו אותם לתוצאות הממוחשבות.

''כמו כן, נטפל בכל אי הסדרים הקיצוניים שהתגלו בספירת המעטפות הכפולות. נקבל את הכרעת הבוחר, אך לא נוותר עד שנדע מה היא באמת", הוסיפו בימין החדש.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: avremie on April 11, 2019, 07:31:40 PM
The new government will not last long. There's no way the charedim and Lieberman can sit together peacefully. And there's no coalition without them.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 12, 2019, 03:10:58 AM
The new government will not last long. There's no way the charedim and Lieberman can sit together peacefully. And there's no coalition without them.

Unless Netanyahu can convince certain Blue and White MK's to move back to Likud...It is a real possibility and then he can leave Lieberman out. (He would only need 2-3
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on April 12, 2019, 08:44:16 AM
Really hoping for Ben gvir!
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 12, 2019, 09:06:20 AM
Really hoping for Ben gvir!

Yup. No one comes close to the entertainment he can provide.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 16, 2019, 06:11:52 AM
Very curious what the % of Charedim actually vote in elections....UTJ getting 8 seats is I believe a record for them....What would happen if the Charedim voted the same as the national average would they not be over 10-12 seats?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 16, 2019, 06:42:31 AM
Very curious what the % of Charedim actually vote in elections....UTJ getting 8 seats is I believe a record for them....What would happen if the Charedim voted the same as the national average would they not be over 10-12 seats?
Charedim vote more than the national average. (Approx 75% vs 65%)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on April 16, 2019, 06:53:30 AM
Charedim vote more than the national average. (Approx 75% vs 65%)

How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 16, 2019, 07:00:40 AM
How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
Sure they vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 16, 2019, 07:06:42 AM
How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
Most chassidim vote. Only a few sects do not
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 08:36:12 AM
How is that possible if most Chasidim do not vote (at least I assumed not)
What would make you assume that when the following (large) sects are actually members of UTJ and either have or had MKs: Ger, Vizhnitz, Belz? In addition a few other sects are members of UTJ.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chff on April 16, 2019, 08:39:10 AM
Most chassidim vote. Only a few sects do not
Just a small thought I had, there was 40+ parties running in this election. If Satmar would vote, there would have been another few parties
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 16, 2019, 08:44:06 AM
Just a small thought I had, there was 40+ parties running in this election. If Satmar would vote, there would have been another few parties
Cmiiw, but I don't think there are that many satmar living in EY. There are some others that don't vota, but I think it would probably translate into maybe 1-2 more seats. No source for these numbers, just what it seems to me
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 09:07:02 AM
Most chassidim vote. Only a few sects do not
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 16, 2019, 09:07:56 AM
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?
Of course
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 09:09:48 AM
Of course
Segregated M/F lines?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzgar on April 16, 2019, 09:43:37 AM
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?
I have no clue.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: shapsam on April 16, 2019, 09:49:10 AM
Segregated M/F lines?
They coordinate the timing with the men and women.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: th0306 on April 16, 2019, 11:44:09 AM
Segregated M/F lines?
Segregated M/F lines in the Makolet?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on April 16, 2019, 01:49:17 PM
I don't know if that is accurate, the math is very complex (see image I posted above). Lieberman is indeed a headache, and Netanyahu knows that UTJ and Shas are probably the most reliable partners.

As for losing the 8th, that would be a shame. I think Pindrus is a very talented guy (I've heard good things about him from people that worked with him when he was mayor of Beitar) who has been a victim of political games (mostly by his own faction) played over the last decade or so.

I have a sense (maybe a hope) that the last local election in Israel were the low point of מחלוקת, and we are on a way up from here towards productive unity with mutual respect. Let's hope that we see only positive and uniting actions and words henceforth.

Seems like UTJ is at 8 after official results published, at the expense of Likud.

https://13news.co.il/item/news/politics/elections-2019/netanyahu-peretz-221106/
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yammer on April 16, 2019, 01:55:45 PM
Just a small thought I had, there was 40+ parties running in this election. If Satmar would vote, there would have been another few parties
They can be a different party but would probably come together for the election.
Cmiiw, but I don't think there are that many satmar living in EY. There are some others that don't vota, but I think it would probably translate into maybe 1-2 more seats. No source for these numbers, just what it seems to me
If you include all the Yirushalmis that don't vote your taking about 2+ seats IMHO
Seems like UTJ is at 8 after official results published, at the expense of Likud.

https://13news.co.il/item/news/politics/elections-2019/netanyahu-peretz-221106/
Yup
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Yonah on April 16, 2019, 02:34:40 PM
Do women of communities where they don't drive vote?

Ishto K'Goof oh - their husbands get to vote twice.

In communities where they regulate women's exercise classes and the color of their underwear, I can't imagine they would let them vote.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on April 16, 2019, 03:31:48 PM
Seems like UTJ is at 8 after official results published, at the expense of Likud.

https://13news.co.il/item/news/politics/elections-2019/netanyahu-peretz-221106/
Awesome. So Pindrus is in?
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 16, 2019, 05:42:20 PM
Yes
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on April 16, 2019, 07:59:14 PM
Yes
Nice. Finally back on the map since his lost mayoral race. He did a lot for Beitar in his day. Brought in a lot of foreign funds to build up the city.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yesitsme on April 16, 2019, 08:14:59 PM
In EY elections is very personal,
its either a Mitzvah to vote or an Avairah, Either you love the party or hate it on a personal level.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on April 16, 2019, 08:26:20 PM
In EY everything is very personal,
its either a Mitzvah or an Avairah, Either you love it or you hate it on a personal level.
FTFY.  :P
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Moshe123 on April 16, 2019, 09:50:50 PM
Among Jews
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on May 13, 2019, 11:01:46 PM
Any update on coalition talks? I haven’t really heard anything lately
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ~King Lake~ on May 13, 2019, 11:25:40 PM
Any update on coalition talks? I haven’t really heard anything lately
Looks like Bibi is having trouble putting together one
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on May 14, 2019, 06:33:13 AM
Any update on coalition talks? I haven’t really heard anything lately

Lieberman holding out.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Jellybelly on May 14, 2019, 07:03:51 AM
Lieberman holding out.
He’s no good, he hates the chareidim and he’s not dependable, he left the last coalition.
I still think Bibi should try to take away some MKs from Gantz, has there been any talk of that? I’m sure it shouldn’t be too hard to find 5-6 guys that would rather be in the government than in the opposition, and anyways from What I hear, there’s a lot of infighting in Ganz’s party. Everyone there wants to be in charge
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 29, 2019, 05:34:23 PM
Round 2 coming up.

I can't figure out why they don't just do it as a two round system in the first place.

Round one needs to get 1/120th of electorate to get into round 2. Round 2 to be held two weeks later needs 1/12th (or other high threshold) to get in. That way all agreements get done before round 2, people know better what they are voting for, and the circus and demands get reduced).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yelped on May 29, 2019, 07:38:48 PM
Not a bad idea, but very hard to get the vote out twice.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 29, 2019, 07:50:00 PM
The polls are predicting a similar outcome, where the right wing bloc has 59+ Liberman, so we may only be at the beginning of this circus.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Denverite on May 29, 2019, 08:30:53 PM
The polls are predicting a similar outcome, where the right wing bloc has 59+ Liberman, so we may only be at the beginning of this circus.

Sorry, not familiar with the details of the Israeli system. In the Sep. redo is it the exact same parties? If not, could Bennet and Shaked go back with the National religious party because their splinter cost that block 4 seats because they failed to meet the minimum.  Just those extra Dati Leumi votes could make a new majority.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 29, 2019, 08:39:22 PM
It's an open election, anybody can run. The problem with that is Shaked is not religious, and those parties have religious agendas. Shaked will likely join either the Likud or Liberman where she can have a more significant career.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: chevron on May 29, 2019, 11:27:18 PM
Shaked will probably join likud. Not sure about Bennet.

If feiglin voters dump him and you have Bennet and feiglin voters voting right parties.. that and Arab party not making cut could swing right wing block to 70+ seats

So Lieberman would not be a factor.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 30, 2019, 01:10:34 AM
Shaked will probably join likud. Not sure about Bennet.

If feiglin voters dump him and you have Bennet and feiglin voters voting right parties.. that and Arab party not making cut could swing right wing block to 70+ seats

So Lieberman would not be a factor.
IMHO it’s a futile exercise to try to predict anything at this point before we even know who’s in the race (as in party mergers and shifts).
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on May 30, 2019, 05:02:43 AM
IMHO it’s a futile exercise to try to predict anything at this point before we even know who’s in the race (as in party mergers and shifts).

Very true but it seems like Feiglin is looking to join with another party based on posts he put out today. Bennett has to realize he is a nothing without Shaked and he should be like Eli Yishai giving his votes to another party.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 30, 2019, 06:04:06 AM
Very true but it seems like Feiglin is looking to join with another party based on posts he put out today. Bennett has to realize he is a nothing without Shaked and he should be like Eli Yishai giving his votes to another party.
Do you really think anyone (except for possibly Lieberman) would take him.

I think Lieberman might take some votes away from Blue and White, as he's singing a similar tune to Lapid.

I also think that overall Blue and White might set a record as the fastest and most spectacular crash of Israeli politics.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: Proisrael on May 30, 2019, 07:28:04 AM
Do you really think anyone (except for possibly Lieberman) would take him.

I think Lieberman might take some votes away from Blue and White, as he's singing a similar tune to Lapid.

I also think that overall Blue and White might set a record as the fastest and most spectacular crash of Israeli politics.

I think Feiglin will join with Bayit Yehudi and Bennett will join with Lieberman.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: ExGingi on May 30, 2019, 08:03:58 AM
I think Feiglin will join with Bayit Yehudi and Bennett will join with Lieberman.

Bennett might join Lieberman, but try as he may, I doubt anyone will accept Feiglin into their ranks.
Title: Re: 2019 Israeli election
Post by: yitzyul on May 30, 2019, 10:15:35 AM
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.

And this is exactly what I "predicted".