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DansDeals Forum => COVID-19 Discussion Board => Topic started by: ari3 on May 07, 2020, 04:03:09 PM

Title: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ari3 on May 07, 2020, 04:03:09 PM
Many states have started reopening over the last couple of weeks as well as most of the European countries including many that were very hard hit. One of the big fears of reopening has been the fear of a second wave. While there may be a slight uptick in cases in some of the places that reopened there has not seemingly been as of yet a "second wave" anywhere.

Being that fear of the "the second wave" is the primary justification that our governors are using not to start reopening I thought it would be very timely to ask,

Is there a second wave happening anywhere?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: mme on May 07, 2020, 04:05:45 PM
Many states have started reopening over the last couple of weeks as well as most of the European countries including many that were very hard hit. One of the big fears of reopening has been the fear of a second wave. While there may be a slight uptick in cases in some of the places that reopened there has not seemingly been as of yet a "second wave" anywhere.

Being that fear of the "the second wave" is the primary justification that our governors are using not to start reopening I thought it would be very timely to ask,

Is there a second wave happening anywhere?
It takes sometime from the reopening till the new cases come out so i guess we can't know yet if the second wave is happening.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 07, 2020, 04:10:33 PM
It takes sometime from the reopening till the new cases come out so i guess we can't know yet if the second wave is happening.
At this point we are two weeks from certain states reopening and the media has went from calling the governers murderers to simply ignoring the fact that there has not been any real difference in cases reopening or lockdown.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on May 07, 2020, 04:37:16 PM
Many states have started reopening over the last couple of weeks as well as most of the European countries including many that were very hard hit. One of the big fears of reopening has been the fear of a second wave. While there may be a slight uptick in cases in some of the places that reopened there has not seemingly been as of yet a "second wave" anywhere.

Being that fear of the "the second wave" is the primary justification that our governors are using not to start reopening I thought it would be very timely to ask,

Is there a second wave happening anywhere?

I don't think you'll see an immediate spike. Given the 7-14 day incubation period and the time it would take for the spread to regain traction, I don't think you would see large numbers until 1 month after restrictions are lifted. Personally, the date I'm watching is around June 10th. If the US can get through Memorial Day weekend without completely f-ing everything up, I'll have a certain amount of confidence loosening my family's restrictive protocol. I don't have a lot of faith in that happening, though.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ari3 on May 07, 2020, 04:44:09 PM
I don't think you'll see an immediate spike. Given the 7-14 day incubation period and the time it would take for the spread to regain traction, I don't think you would see large numbers until 1 month after restrictions are lifted. Personally, the date I'm watching is around June 10th. If the US can get through Memorial Day weekend without completely f-ing everything up, I'll have a certain amount of confidence loosening my family's restrictive protocol. I don't have a lot of faith in that happening, though.
How long did it take from purim when it is assumed the major spread happened in our community till total disaster? Less than 2 weeks. The incubation period is 2-14 days probably an average of 5-6 days. If there was going to be this terrible second wave you should be seeing trouble pretty soon.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 07, 2020, 04:48:14 PM
At this point we are two weeks from certain states reopening and the media has went from calling the governers murderers to simply ignoring the fact that there has not been any real difference in cases reopening or lockdown.
I keep seeing this murderer comment but no one has provided a link to a national source, not some talkin head.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 07, 2020, 04:54:11 PM
I keep seeing this murderer comment but no one has provided a link to a national source, not some talkin head.

It is definitely an exaggeration on my part, but kemp was getting a lot of criticism for opening up and the media is ignoring the fact that there really hasn't been any substantial increase.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 07, 2020, 04:57:50 PM
It is definitely an exaggeration on my part, but kemp was getting a lot of criticism for opening up and the media is ignoring the fact that there really hasn't been any substantial increase.
The problem is I keep seeing it (not you) and wondering where it is coming from.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on May 07, 2020, 04:58:02 PM
How long did it take from purim when it is assumed the major spread happened in our community till total disaster? Less than 2 weeks. The incubation period is 2-14 days probably an average of 5-6 days. If there was going to be this terrible second wave you should be seeing trouble pretty soon.

That comparison is completely irrelevant, but total disaster was about 2 weeks after Purim. People realized it was super serious 3-5 days after. You have to consider that if the major spread was Purim, the virus was in the community at least the week before, which would account for the hospitalizations that woke everyone up the following week.

Purim is irrelevant, though, because it was an absolute worst case scenario. Even in our communities, you don't find another scenario that allows for a spread of that magnitude. Additionally, there are precautions being taken now, with crowd limits, PPE, social distancing awareness, and high-risk people self-isolating. The spread will definitely take longer and be less explosive than what we experienced in March, when virtually no precautions being taken by anyone.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 07, 2020, 05:01:34 PM
The problem is I keep seeing it (not you) and wondering where it is coming from.

It came from people on twitter probably
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on May 07, 2020, 05:04:56 PM
The problem is I keep seeing it (not you) and wondering where it is coming from.

It came from employees of MSM who are employed to take partisan stances and talk in extremes. You consider them talking heads and not journalists. Other people don't make that distinction, because of the logos they represent and who signs their paychecks.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: kayef on May 07, 2020, 05:05:51 PM
https://t.me/KolHaolam/17983
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 07, 2020, 05:08:06 PM
https://t.me/KolHaolam/17983

Fake news. Nothing of the sort was said
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 07, 2020, 05:08:37 PM
It came from employees of MSM who are employed to take partisan stances and talk in extremes. You consider them talking heads and not journalists. Other people don't make that distinction, because of the logos they represent and who signs their paychecks.
If someone doesn't make a distinction between Maddow/Hannity and the national news they should have a lifetime stay at home order because they are complete idiots!!!
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on May 07, 2020, 05:16:24 PM
If someone doesn't make a distinction between Maddow/Hannity and the national news they should have a lifetime stay at home order because they are complete idiots!!!

I think you'll find that many people don't make that distinction. Unrelated, I think you'll find that many people are complete idiots, too.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 07, 2020, 06:12:06 PM
Many states have started reopening over the last couple of weeks as well as most of the European countries including many that were very hard hit. One of the big fears of reopening has been the fear of a second wave. While there may be a slight uptick in cases in some of the places that reopened there has not seemingly been as of yet a "second wave" anywhere.

Being that fear of the "the second wave" is the primary justification that our governors are using not to start reopening I thought it would be very timely to ask,

Is there a second wave happening anywhere?
Ironic, since the first (and second, and third. And four hundredth.) time I ever heard the words second wave were on Fox where they were saying ďItís pointless to shut down because whenever we open there will be a second wave!Ē

Is that no longer politically convenient for that side of the debate?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on May 07, 2020, 06:24:23 PM
How long did it take from purim when it is assumed the major spread happened in our community till total disaster? Less than 2 weeks. The incubation period is 2-14 days probably an average of 5-6 days. If there was going to be this terrible second wave you should be seeing trouble pretty soon.
By the time purim came it was already spreading like wildfire thru our community and we had no idea. There were already hundreds of people infected, but given the incubation period, the fact that most people assumed they just had a cold, and asymptomatic people no one realized it and purim essentially did what would have otherwise taken a few days.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: JMHO on May 07, 2020, 06:28:02 PM
Fake news. Nothing of the sort was said
https://forward.com/fast-forward/445911/dr-anthony-fauci-high-holidays-synagogue-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 07, 2020, 06:36:05 PM
By the time purim came it was already spreading like wildfire thru our community and we had no idea. There were already hundreds of people infected, but given the incubation period, the fact that most people assumed they just had a cold, and asymptomatic people no one realized it and purim essentially did what would have otherwise taken a few days.
I think in Lakewood, a bunch of people from other places spread it around on Purim to hundreds of people, and those people spread it to thousands or tens of thousands over the next week with little to no restrictions.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ckmk47 on May 07, 2020, 07:45:55 PM
The second wave problem is not just in the reopened areas.  It's from people getting tired of the restrictions and stopping to be vigilant.
Those who know they shouldn't get covid have to remain in self quarantine.  Even though it's a lot like self jail.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on May 07, 2020, 08:20:16 PM
I think in Lakewood, a bunch of people from other places spread it around on Purim to hundreds of people, and those people spread it to thousands or tens of thousands over the next week with little to no restrictions.
It's ludicrous to think it wasn't rampant in Lakewood before purim. Purim definitely didn't help, but it didn't start on Purim.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 07, 2020, 08:20:50 PM
It's ludicrous to think it wasn't rampant in Lakewood before purim. Purim definitely didn't help, but it didn't start on Purim.
You think thousands had it before Purim, or a handful?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on May 07, 2020, 08:26:52 PM
You think thousands had it before Purim, or a handful?
My guess is hundreds, but I have no way to know.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 07, 2020, 08:28:36 PM
My guess is hundreds, but I have no way to know.
Possibly. I think Purim and the week that followed caused many thousands of not tens of thousands to get infected, and that week, which was the week that most people waffled on, was the most critical week in keeping this thing in check. Letís face it, we whiffed from the top down.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on May 07, 2020, 08:38:53 PM


Possibly. I think Purim and the week that followed caused many thousands of not tens of thousands to get infected, and that week, which was the week that most people waffled on, was the most critical week in keeping this thing in check. Letís face it, we whiffed from the top down.

The last week before the lockdown is by definition the week that it spread the most.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 07, 2020, 08:40:29 PM
It is hard to pinpoint when they don't even know how long it takes to show symptoms.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 07, 2020, 10:19:58 PM

The last week before the lockdown is by definition the week that it spread the most.
For sure, and that week it spread a ton. My point is by locking down less than one week earlier (when many people were already calling for it, outside of one prominent doctor in Lakewood) we probably would have escaped a tremendous amount of devastation. Probably being the operative word here. All we presumably would have needed to do was not reopen schools, businesses, and shuls after Shabbos, when the real danger was coming to light.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ari3 on May 08, 2020, 01:04:06 AM
For sure, and that week it spread a ton. My point is by locking down less than one week earlier (when many people were already calling for it, outside of one prominent doctor in Lakewood) we probably would have escaped a tremendous amount of devastation. Probably being the operative word here. All we presumably would have needed to do was not reopen schools, businesses, and shuls after Shabbos, when the real danger was coming to light.
Most of the people were probably infected by then. Additionally it would have been virtually impossible to shut down businesses at that point being that it wasn't mandated by gov't at that point.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 08, 2020, 11:45:42 AM
Most of the people were probably infected by then. Additionally it would have been virtually impossible to shut down businesses at that point being that it wasn't mandated by gov't at that point.
Why do you say most were probably infected by then? If Rabbanim and doctors would have released a blanket harsh ban through a public letter and phone recordings on all businesses, schools, and shuls that would have stopped things cold turkey. They are NOT to blame but I do think it could have been done theoretically.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 08, 2020, 01:43:43 PM
For sure, and that week it spread a ton. My point is by locking down less than one week earlier (when many people were already calling for it, outside of one prominent doctor in Lakewood) we probably would have escaped a tremendous amount of devastation. Probably being the operative word here. All we presumably would have needed to do was not reopen schools, businesses, and shuls after Shabbos, when the real danger was coming to light.
No one was calling for it. Revisionist history
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 08, 2020, 01:51:43 PM
No one was calling for it. Revisionist history
#fakenews

Just look back on DDF from before purim.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on May 08, 2020, 02:09:11 PM
No one was calling for it. Revisionist history

Takes some balls to post that on this forum in particular...
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ari3 on May 08, 2020, 02:11:19 PM
#fakenews

Just look back on DDF from before purim.
Hindsight is 20/20.

At that point the mainstream medical establishment wasn't calling for such drastic measures.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on May 08, 2020, 02:20:29 PM
Hindsight is 20/20.

At that point the mainstream medical establishment wasn't calling for such drastic measures.
Many, many people were calling for a shutdown immediately preceding and following Purim. The medical establishment is irrelevant. To say
No one was calling for it. Revisionist history
is 100% BS.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on May 08, 2020, 02:22:55 PM
Hindsight is 20/20.

At that point the mainstream medical establishment wasn't calling for such drastic measures.

The Lakewood doctors whom the town listens to were indeed calling for business as usual. Just about all of them. A few fringe doctors calling for shutdowns before purim.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 08, 2020, 02:24:00 PM
No one was calling for it. Revisionist history
I understand that suits your agenda because you are once again calling for everything to reopen up, as you have all along, and donít want to take responsibility for your actions, but it shouldnít take too much research to find the thousands of posts on here calling for people to shut down. Start with @chevron favorite thread, the ďRabbanim wake upĒ thread. Iím not saying it was written respectfully but if you deny many people were calling for it, youíre the one rewriting history.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 08, 2020, 02:25:48 PM
The Lakewood doctors whom the town listens to were indeed calling for business as usual. Just about all of them. A few fringe doctors calling for shutdowns before purim.
Lies. Everyone but one major doctor called for serious restrictions. I personally spoke to 2 doctors right after Purim before people woke up and they warned that the situation was dire, and one of them has unfortunately since succumbed to the virus.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on May 08, 2020, 02:34:00 PM
There's no winners. If you had taken precautions you can look back and muse that you over reacted. If you took no precautions etc and nothing happened or if you took no precautions and muse that things wouldn't have changed etc .

Bh here in Miami it's been stable , a lot to do with weather, geography etc but I think we just took it more seriously and it never really spread.

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on May 08, 2020, 02:37:26 PM
Lies. Everyone but one major doctor called for serious restrictions. I personally spoke to 2 doctors right after Purim before people woke up and they warned that the situation was dire, and one of them has unfortunately since succumbed to the virus.

Lies? before purim? Who is being revisionist?
Dr shanik was not calling for a shutdown before purim. The head of a major health center in Lakewood was asked personally about an immunocomromised person going out on purim and he responded that covid had not yet reached Lakewood so he saw no reason not to. The Roshei yeshiva met with several doctors a few days AFTER purim and those doctors did not insist to them that everything shut down. If Dr Shanik and the others mentioned werenít on board little else mattered. Rich Roberts, Dr Roth, and a few other donít carry sway in Lakewood when Dr shanik says otherwise.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 08, 2020, 02:39:31 PM
I understand that suits your agenda because you are once again calling for everything to reopen up, as you have all along, and donít want to take responsibility for your actions, but it shouldnít take too much research to find the thousands of posts on here calling for people to shut down. Start with @chevron favorite thread, the ďRabbanim wake upĒ thread. Iím not saying it was written respectfully but if you deny many people were calling for it, youíre the one rewriting history.
How was everything not shut down right after Purim? At least where I lived it was, youíre telling me that a week before that there were thousands of messages here saying we should shut down?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ari3 on May 08, 2020, 02:40:04 PM
Many, many people were calling for a shutdown immediately preceding and following Purim. The medical establishment is irrelevant. To say is 100% BS.
Wait the medical establishment is irrelevant. The Rabbis are irrelevant. So who is relevant?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 08, 2020, 02:50:18 PM
Lies? before purim? Who is being revisionist?
Dr shanik was not calling for a shutdown before purim. The head of a major health center in Lakewood was asked personally about an immunocomromised person going out on purim and he responded that covid had not yet reached Lakewood so he saw no reason not to. The Roshei yeshiva met with several doctors a few days AFTER purim and those doctors did not insist to them that everything shut down. If Dr Shanik and the others mentioned werenít on board little else mattered. Rich Roberts, Dr Roth, and a few other donít carry sway in Lakewood when Dr shanik says otherwise.
Read my post he was responding to. I said that within the week after Purim nobody acted to shut it down, which could have contained a lot of it. I specifically said I donít blame anyone but most doctors were on board at that point, with one notable exception who waited until the following Wed and Thurs to finally wake up, by which time it was unfortunately too late for most. Yes, the few days after Purim almost all doctors in Lakewood (By Monday just about everyone except the one exception) were advising people to stay home and not go out.
How was everything not shut down right after Purim? At least where I lived it was, youíre telling me that a week before that there were thousands of messages here saying we should shut down?
I suggested that the difference between a decent amount of spread and the crazy spread to the extent that happened was the week after Purim. I maintain that if schools, businesses, and shuls would not have opened the following week at all a lot of the tragedy could have been averted. Once again, Iím not saying I blame anyone. But MANY were calling for that.

I donít know where you live, I was and am talking about Lakewood
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on May 08, 2020, 02:50:35 PM
Wait the medical establishment is irrelevant. The Rabbis are irrelevant. So who is relevant?

To what he said? The medical establishment wasn't brought up. Who said Rabbis?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 08, 2020, 02:52:13 PM
Hindsight is 20/20.

At that point the mainstream medical establishment wasn't calling for such drastic measures.
So we listen to the mainstream medical establishment?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 08, 2020, 02:54:19 PM
Wait the medical establishment is irrelevant. The Rabbis are irrelevant. So who is relevant?
Lies? before purim? Who is being revisionist?
Dr shanik was not calling for a shutdown before purim. The head of a major health center in Lakewood was asked personally about an immunocomromised person going out on purim and he responded that covid had not yet reached Lakewood so he saw no reason not to. The Roshei yeshiva met with several doctors a few days AFTER purim and those doctors did not insist to them that everything shut down. If Dr Shanik and the others mentioned werenít on board little else mattered. Rich Roberts, Dr Roth, and a few other donít carry sway in Lakewood when Dr shanik says otherwise.
How was everything not shut down right after Purim? At least where I lived it was, youíre telling me that a week before that there were thousands of messages here saying we should shut down?
Ok itís getting clearer to me that you havenít bothered to read my posts that youíre disagreeing with.

I will summarize:
I said most of the spread happened between Purim and lockdown which occurred a week and a half later, and a lockdown on that Sunday (After Purim) could have prevented much heartache. I was questioned about the possibility, and maintain that it was possible if leaders would have all been on board, which they werenít. Now please look back and see if you have any questions.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 08, 2020, 02:59:03 PM
One more point: You may be right that it couldnít have happened, because even with all of the deaths and clear medical and government guidance some people have consistently refused to listen to the Rabbinical guidance against gatherings etc. Itís definitely possible even more people would not have listened to just Rabbanim alone, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ari3 on May 10, 2020, 12:16:32 AM
Read my post he was responding to. I said that within the week after Purim nobody acted to shut it down, which could have contained a lot of it. I specifically said I donít blame anyone but most doctors were on board at that point, with one notable exception who waited until the following Wed and Thurs to finally wake up, by which time it was unfortunately too late for most. Yes, the few days after Purim almost all doctors in Lakewood (By Monday just about everyone except the one exception) were advising people to stay home and not go out.I suggested that the difference between a decent amount of spread and the crazy spread to the extent that happened was the week after Purim. I maintain that if schools, businesses, and shuls would not have opened the following week at all a lot of the tragedy could have been averted. Once again, Iím not saying I blame anyone. But MANY were calling for that.

I donít know where you live, I was and am talking about Lakewood

I also live in Lakewood and I follow Doctors recommendations Rabbonims recommendations and Gov't rules.

The gov't didn't shut down schools or other things till Wed over a week after Purim. The mainstream doctors weren't calling for a shutdown earlier than that (Dr. Roth is an eye Dr and Mr roberts is not a practicing physician). The rabbonim didn't close shuls till that Wednesday as well.

So I have to agree with the ones accusing you of revisionist history. Quoting a few people on DDF who were calling for shutdowns at that point is ridiculous. While DDF is great I hope you don't base your life decisions on what people post on DDF.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 10, 2020, 12:31:28 AM
I also live in Lakewood and I follow Doctors recommendations Rabbonims recommendations and Gov't rules.

The gov't didn't shut down schools or other things till Wed over a week after Purim. The mainstream doctors weren't calling for a shutdown earlier than that (Dr. Roth is an eye Dr and Mr roberts is not a practicing physician). The rabbonim didn't close shuls till that Wednesday as well.

So I have to agree with the ones accusing you of revisionist history. Quoting a few people on DDF who were calling for shutdowns at that point is ridiculous. While DDF is great I hope you don't base your life decisions on what people post on DDF.
You apparently don't know what was going on behind the scenes.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yesitsme on May 10, 2020, 12:32:53 AM
You apparently don't know what was going on behind the scenes.
wait for the letter coming out on Monday
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on May 10, 2020, 12:33:30 AM
I also live in Lakewood and I follow Doctors recommendations Rabbonims recommendations and Gov't rules.

The gov't didn't shut down schools or other things till Wed over a week after Purim. The mainstream doctors weren't calling for a shutdown earlier than that (Dr. Roth is an eye Dr and Mr roberts is not a practicing physician). The rabbonim didn't close shuls till that Wednesday as well.

So I have to agree with the ones accusing you of revisionist history. Quoting a few people on DDF who were calling for shutdowns at that point is ridiculous. While DDF is great I hope you don't base your life decisions on what people post on DDF.

In NY, schools were being closed the week of Purim. In PA, Purim was the last week of school. Here in FL, with minimal cases, schools were all closed either the Friday after Purim, or that was their last day. Let me be clear that this response isn't personal, but I'm using this to illustrate an issue that has been brought up numerous times before. The initial response in Lakewood cost lives. They were slow. You can blame it on Rabbonim, you can blame it on Askanim, you can blame it on Dr. Shanik, you can blame it on the government. The fact of the matter is, other people and places reacted up to 2 weeks before Lakewood shut down. To live in a bubble has it's maalos. But you can't shut out the world and then claim revisionist history because you weren't paying attention.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ari3 on May 10, 2020, 12:51:19 AM
You apparently don't know what was going on behind the scenes.
What was going on behind the scenes is irrelevant to this discussion. We were discussing what was being called for publicly by the doctors at that time.
Lies. Everyone but one major doctor called for serious restrictions.
This is plain and simplly untrue
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: JMHO on May 10, 2020, 12:55:24 AM
While DDF is great I hope you don't base your life decisions on what people post on DDF.
You don't?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ari3 on May 10, 2020, 01:00:58 AM
In NY, schools were being closed the week of Purim. In PA, Purim was the last week of school. Here in FL, with minimal cases, schools were all closed either the Friday after Purim, or that was their last day. Let me be clear that this response isn't personal, but I'm using this to illustrate an issue that has been brought up numerous times before. The initial response in Lakewood cost lives. They were slow. You can blame it on Rabbonim, you can blame it on Askanim, you can blame it on Dr. Shanik, you can blame it on the government. The fact of the matter is, other people and places reacted up to 2 weeks before Lakewood shut down. To live in a bubble has it's maalos. But you can't shut out the world and then claim revisionist history because you weren't paying attention.
In NY schools were open thru Fri after Purim. They closed after that because Gov Cuomo closed the schools then. In FL the governor also closed schools on Fri Mar 13. In Lakewood (and other places in NJ not just in the bubble society in Lakewood) they were open thru the following Tuesday (a difference of 3 days) and that is because that is when Gov Murphy closed the schools. Additionally there were confirmed cases in NY before there were in NJ (that is why shuls in Far Rockaway etc closed before shabbos and in lakewood on wed. There were confirmed cases in 5t and there were not in Lakewood).
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on May 10, 2020, 01:07:14 AM
In NY schools were open thru Fri after Purim. They closed after that because Gov Cuomo closed the schools then. In FL the governor also closed schools on Fri Mar 13. In Lakewood (and other places in NJ not just in the bubble society in Lakewood) they were open thru the following Tuesday (a difference of 3 days) and that is because that is when Gov Murphy closed the schools. Additionally there were confirmed cases in NY before there were in NJ (that is why shuls in Far Rockaway etc closed before shabbos and in lakewood on wed. There were confirmed cases in 5t and there were not in Lakewood).

In NY, there were schools closed before Cuomo closed public schools, and in FL some of the Jewish school closure announcements came before county decisions.But I'm not here to rehash the details. I commented on one thing:

No one was calling for it. Revisionist history

The fact is, it was being called for, and loudly, making the above statement patently false.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Luvisrael on May 10, 2020, 04:54:02 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-idUSKBN22M00V
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 10, 2020, 06:45:22 AM
Most telling to me is that the Rabbis whom determined around Purim that the danger was insufficient to close shuls are now using a much lower bar to keep the shuls closed. We must accept that one of the two decisions were mistaken.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 10, 2020, 07:09:30 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-idUSKBN22M00V
If 14 new cases is a second wave then we are gonna be shut down here in NY forever
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 10, 2020, 07:10:45 AM
Most telling to me is that the Rabbis whom determined around Purim that the danger was insufficient to close shuls are now using a much lower bar to keep the shuls closed. We must accept that one of the two decisions were mistaken.
I think that the decision then was made without the knowledge of asymptomatic carriers and therefore with a different set of facts now its a different decision.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 08:18:21 AM
Meanwhile in Georgia
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on May 10, 2020, 08:24:02 AM
If 14 new cases is a second wave then we are gonna be shut down here in NY forever

Well, China does like to take a couple zeros off the end of a number :)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 08:40:03 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKBN22M028


SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea warned of a second wave of the new coronavirus on Sunday as infections rebounded to a one-month high, just as the authorities were starting to ease some pandemic restrictions.

"It's not over until it's over," President Moon Jae-in told the nation, saying a new cluster shows the virus can spread widely at any time, and warning of a second wave .
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on May 10, 2020, 08:45:00 AM
I think that the decision then was made without the knowledge of asymptomatic carriers and therefore with a different set of facts now its a different decision.

Asymptomatic spread was well known well before that.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yehuda57 on May 10, 2020, 09:06:58 AM
Asymptomatic spread was well known well before that.

De Blasio only found this out in April, and he's in charge of the biggest hotspot in the country.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yelped on May 10, 2020, 10:00:33 AM
De Blasio only found this out in April, and he's in charge of the biggest hotspot in the country.
Biggest ego/biggest idiot goes together with the biggest hotspot.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 10, 2020, 10:06:06 AM
Asymptomatic spread was well known well before that.
{citation needed}
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Euclid on May 10, 2020, 10:12:57 AM
Asymptomatic spread was well known well before that.
Was well known to those paying attention. Unfortunately seems like those informing rabbanim were not aware.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 10, 2020, 10:21:27 AM
What was going on behind the scenes is irrelevant to this discussion. We were discussing what was being called for publicly by the doctors at that time.This is plain and simplly untrue
No, we werenít. Please reread the posts you were responding to. I literally said that the problem was that nobody was calling for it publicly. I also said I donít blame anyone.

I donít think youíre rewriting history, I think youíre having trouble reading.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 10, 2020, 10:21:38 AM
I think that the decision then was made without the knowledge of asymptomatic carriers and therefore with a different set of facts now its a different decision.
I don't care what prompted the mistake. My point is we shouldn't be following them.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 10:24:11 AM
Biggest ego/biggest idiot goes together with the biggest hotspot.
US is the biggest hotspot in the world.  ;)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 10, 2020, 10:25:20 AM
Meanwhile in Georgia
I hope it stays that way, they can be the guinea pigs for us to decide if itís safe to reopen
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 10, 2020, 10:42:34 AM
I don't care what prompted the mistake. My point is we shouldn't be following them.
Good luck with that one. Most of the five towns is following one doctor who was so wrong at the beginning of this and it makes no sense to me.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 10, 2020, 10:51:18 AM
Good luck with that one. Most of the five towns is following one doctor who was so wrong at the beginning of this and it makes no sense to me.
Do you mean Dr glatt? In what way was he so wrong?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 10, 2020, 10:54:20 AM
Do you mean Dr glatt? In what way was he so wrong?
Thursday after Purim he told all the schools that there was no need to close until a student has a confirmed positive.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on May 10, 2020, 10:56:30 AM
I don't care what prompted the mistake. My point is we shouldn't be following them.
So who should we be following? The nuts who shut everything down and corona spread anyway? Or the DRs who said to isolate for 3 months and people got it anyway
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 11:11:03 AM
I hope it stays that way, they can be the guinea pigs for us to decide if itís safe to reopen
LAS mayor volunteered her city.  ;)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 10, 2020, 11:24:29 AM
Meanwhile in Georgia
This will be great assuming that it continues. 2 weeks is really too soon to really know which new cases are from the first wave winding down and which may be the startt of a potential second wave. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 12:20:21 PM
US is the biggest hotspot in the world.  ;)

You have to be consistent and stop manipulating the numbers like the MSM.
How do u come to the conclusion that the USA is the biggest hotspot especially in the context of NY.
We are at 242 per 1MP and if we took NY out of the equation we are at around 175 per 1MP.
Regardless we are a lot closer to Canada then Europe.
And this is without taking into account that there isn't one Global standard for what is counted as Covid19 death.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 12:21:02 PM
This will be great assuming that it continues. 2 weeks is really too soon to really know which new cases are from the first wave winding down and which may be the startt of a potential second wave. Time will tell.

It is hard to believe that the numbers won't go up.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 10, 2020, 12:23:17 PM
It is hard to believe that the numbers won't go up.
Certainly. What extent they do is the trillion dollar question.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 12:35:01 PM
You have to be consistent and stop manipulating the numbers...
You have to be joking and in the same post. ROFLMAO!
We are at 242 per 1MP and if we took NY out of the equation we are at around 175 per 1MP.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 12:35:14 PM
Certainly. What extent they do is the trillion dollar question.

At this point more like 10 trillion dollar question.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 12:38:05 PM
How do u come to the conclusion that the USA is the biggest hotspot especially in the context of NY.
US has more deaths and confirmed case more than anyone else in the world.
NY is the biggest hotspot within the US.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 10, 2020, 12:39:31 PM
US has more deaths and confirmed case more than anyone else in the world.
NY is the biggest hotspot within the US.
That is meaningless until it is population adjusted.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 12:44:32 PM
That is meaningless until it is population adjusted.
So you want everything adjusted for population?
So China would not be a hotspot because of the large population.

In your community are you more concerned about the amount of people that died based on population or just the actual number?
For me it is actual number.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 10, 2020, 12:47:25 PM
So you want everything adjusted for population?
So China would not be a hotspot because of the large population.

In your community are you more concerned about the amount of people that died based on population or just the actual number?
For me it is actual number.
So now we are being the numbers from China? Even if we do, parts were definitely hotspots. Concerns can be without it being a hotspot as well.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 12:49:10 PM
So now we are being the numbers from China? Even if we do, parts were definitely hotspots. Concerns can be without it being a hotspot as well.
I don't see any answers to my questions.  :)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 12:49:44 PM
You have to be joking and in the same post. ROFLMAO!
Follow the thread, it was in the context of discussing NY.
US has more deaths and confirmed case more than anyone else in the world.
NY is the biggest hotspot within the US.
So you want everything adjusted for population?
So China would not be a hotspot because of the large population.

In your community are you more concerned about the amount of people that died based on population or just the actual number?
For me it is actual number.


You are so manipulative , its asinine.
Let me get this straight.
The entire USA is a Hotspot based on absolute numbers but Europe isn't? Is Wyoming more a Hotspot than Poland?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 10, 2020, 12:56:12 PM


I don't see any answers to my questions.  :)



So you want everything adjusted for population?
So China would not be a hotspot because of the large population.

In your community are you more concerned about the amount of people that died based on population or just the actual number?
For me it is actual number.

Since you are having difficulty understanding I will reword the same reply.

Yes we should adjust for population. Your point from China is garbage since the numbers can't be trusted and even if they could be, certain regions of China certainly were hotspots.

Yes I am concerned about absolute numbers but to call it a hotspot based on that is fallacious.

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 12:59:40 PM
Let me get this straight.
The entire USA is a Hotspot based on absolute numbers but Europe isn't? Is Wyoming more a Hotspot than Poland?
If you are basing it just on numbers of deaths then the US is the hotspot or epicenter now.
If you want to base it on population then I am ok with that but you can't keep moving the goal post.
If I say the US has failed testing miserably based on population some will say that is asinine. They will claim we did more tests than anyone by far.
You to tell me where the goalpost are.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 01:01:04 PM
Since you are having difficulty understanding I will reword the same reply.
Can you do this from the beginning next time? I understood everyone of these answers.  :)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 10, 2020, 01:04:09 PM
Can you do this from the beginning next time? I understood everyone of these answers.  :)
And you didn't understand it before?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 01:10:54 PM
If you are basing it just on numbers of deaths then the US is the hotspot or epicenter now.
If you want to base it on population then I am ok with that but you can't keep moving the goal post.
If I say the US has failed testing miserably based on population some will say that is asinine. They will claim we did more post than anyone by far.
You to tell me where the goalpost are.

In regards to testing here's some new verbiage , Testing Man Dchar Smay?
Simplified,  who the Heck mentioned that?

In regards to how to calculate CFR , the only standard i use is per 1MP.

If we are talking in absolute numbers, the top 3 most affected countries have a higher absolute death rate than the entire USA.
You can't have it both ways.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 10, 2020, 01:18:38 PM
In regards to testing here's some new verbiage , Testing Man Dchar Smay?
Simplified,  who the Heck mentioned that?

In regards to how to calculate CFR , the only standard i use is per 1MP.

If we are talking in absolute numbers, the top 3 most affected countries have a higher absolute death rate than the entire USA.
You can't have it both ways.
?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 01:22:18 PM
And you didn't understand it before?
Actually no. I think spell/grammar check messed up and that made it confusing.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 01:26:22 PM
In regards to how to calculate CFR , the only standard i use is per 1MP.
Just let me know what standards/numbers you are going by and I am fine with it.
With this standard isn't there other states worse than NY? Going to need to check that.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 10, 2020, 01:27:57 PM
Just let me know what standards/numbers you are going by and I am fine with it.
With this standard isn't there other states worse than NY? Going to need to check that.
The hotspot was NY metro. Someone forgot to tell the virus where the state borders are.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 01:30:22 PM
The hotspot was NY metro. Someone forgot to tell the virus where the state borders are.
...and you can even break it down further. Saying NY was a hotspot IMHO is a fair statement.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 02:09:42 PM

In regards to how to calculate CFR , the only standard i use is per 1MP.

If we are talking in absolute numbers, the top 3 most affected countries in the EU have a higher absolute death rate than the entire USA.
You can't have it both ways.
?

FTFY
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 02:13:14 PM
Just let me know what standards/numbers you are going by and I am fine with it.
With this standard isn't there other states worse than NY? Going to need to check that.

No other state other than NJ even comes close.
They are the only 2 states in the 4 digits per 1MP
Large majority of states are in double digits
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 02:14:37 PM
...and you can even break it down further. Saying NY was a hotspot IMHO is a fair statement.

I think we all agree on that.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 02:22:05 PM
No other state other than NJ even comes close.
They are the only 2 states in the 4 digits per 1MP
Large majority of states are in double digits
Oops, my bad. Looking at deaths per cases.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on May 10, 2020, 02:27:53 PM
No other state other than NJ even comes close.
They are the only 2 states in the 4 digits per 1MP
Large majority of states are in double digits
MA & RI are also above 10k per million, CT and DC are pretty close too.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on May 10, 2020, 03:33:37 PM
I love the arguments trying to re-frame the US numbers without NY. "That hotspot is crazy! It skews all the numbers! Let's look at it without that hotspot, and then compare to other countries. Wait, you want to do what? No, don't take their biggest hotspot out! That destroys our narrative!"
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 05:10:02 PM
MA & RI are also above 10k per million, CT and DC are pretty close too.

We were discussing the CFR.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on May 10, 2020, 05:13:47 PM
We were discussing the CFR.
oops. CT & MA aren't too far behind.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 05:15:38 PM
I love the arguments trying to re-frame the US numbers without NY. "That hotspot is crazy! It skews all the numbers! Let's look at it without that hotspot, and then compare to other countries. Wait, you want to do what? No, don't take their biggest hotspot out! That destroys our narrative!"
oops. CT & MA aren't too far behind.

It's pretty obvious when people don't actually follow the thread.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 10, 2020, 05:17:16 PM
It's pretty obvious when people don't actually follow the thread.
Each thread has 20 different things going on. Sometimes it is even between to the two main characters.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 10, 2020, 05:37:47 PM
Each thread has 20 different things going on. Sometimes it is even between to the two main characters.
Agreed.
Just pointing out how it's out of context.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on May 10, 2020, 05:41:37 PM
{citation needed}

You made a claim that no one knew about asymptomatic spread before Purim, and then ask me for proof? Lol. Is February 24th early enough? What will you claim next - that China didnít lie about their numbers or that the 15 cases in the US will turn to 0?
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission-chinese-woman-relatives-2020-2

It was also well known before that, for example DP cruise ship found half the infected were asymptomatic at time of testing. That testing occurred in mid-February.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on May 10, 2020, 05:51:08 PM
Do you mean Dr glatt? In what way was he so wrong?

https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=113531.msg2206792#msg2206792
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on May 10, 2020, 10:55:54 PM
Each thread has 20 different things going on. Sometimes it is even between to the two main characters.

You need to convert to Judaism... The fact that you understand this means you're one of us..

It's classical talmudic discussion.. everyone is discussing 20 different things on 20 different opinions and 20 different subjects..

Why?!?! No one knows..
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on May 10, 2020, 11:03:18 PM
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=113531.msg2206792#msg2206792

Right this is part of the problem that people had no symptoms. Others were going around shedding like my cat . Etc

motz"sh before Purim, he was on a popular podcast saying not to worry.. just wash your hands etc

It's on his fault This was the data that was available then This is what the big discussion back then was about washing your hands and not touching your face.

It was only about 1 to 2 weeks later that they started discussing seriously about sneezes and coughing.

But even before purim I was concerned about coughing and sneezes. We explored various AC UV light filters It's supposedly would kill any sneeze.

Based on expert advice in the community we did not do that and instead I spent $500 on advanced AC filters for the shul.

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ari3 on May 10, 2020, 11:49:36 PM
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=113531.msg2206792#msg2206792
Do you think guilt about missing the severity of this in the beginning is subconsciously driving some decision makers to be overly cautious at this point?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yitzgar on May 10, 2020, 11:52:58 PM
Do you think guilt about missing the severity of this in the beginning is subconsciously driving some decision makers to be overly cautious at this point?
Very possible, but no way to know. Not a good enough chashash just to discount his opinion, though...
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 10, 2020, 11:54:05 PM
Very possible, but no way to know. Not a good enough chashash just to discount his opinion, though...
Why does he get an opinion?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yitzgar on May 10, 2020, 11:55:41 PM
Why does he get an opinion?
The fact that someone once made a mistake means that they can never be listened to again? (I'm not saying to necessarily listen to him over anyone else)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 11, 2020, 12:00:09 AM
The fact that someone once made a mistake means that they can never be listened to again? (I'm not saying to necessarily listen to him over anyone else)
When you are so far off on the facts at the beginning you shouldnít be relied on anymore when it comes to the same subject.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on May 11, 2020, 12:06:19 AM
When you are so far off on the facts at the beginning you shouldnít be relied on anymore when it comes to the same subject.

That's stupid. So that means you would never listen to anybody?

If someone warns you not to do something and you do it and don't die, are they unreliable?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 11, 2020, 12:12:04 AM
That's stupid. So that means you would never listen to anybody?

If someone warns you not to do something and you do it and don't die, are they unreliable?
Iím being very specific about someone who was supposed to lead the community on medical issues and clearly failed. Someone else should be the leader
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 11, 2020, 01:02:41 AM
Iím being very specific about someone who was supposed to lead the community on medical issues and clearly failed. Someone else should be the leader
Voting for Biden?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on May 11, 2020, 02:24:38 AM
Do you think guilt about missing the severity of this in the beginning is subconsciously driving some decision makers to be overly cautious at this point?

Some people? Yes.

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CRACKERJACK on May 11, 2020, 06:40:11 AM
Some people? Yes.


Driven by guilt? Or learning from mistakes?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 11, 2020, 08:01:11 AM
Driven by guilt? Or learning from mistakes?
Both?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 11, 2020, 08:01:26 AM
Iím being very specific about someone who was supposed to lead the community on medical issues and clearly failed. Someone else should be the leader
Who should?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on May 11, 2020, 10:21:14 AM
Driven by guilt? Or learning from mistakes?

By being overly cautious they havenít learned anything from their mistakes. Theyíre just making the mistake in the opposite direction, instead of using facts to make a rational decision.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 11, 2020, 10:30:42 AM
By being overly cautious they havenít learned anything from their mistakes. Theyíre just making the mistake in the opposite direction, instead of using facts to make a rational decision.

Well said, IMO many people have been making emotional arguments as opposed to logical ones.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 11, 2020, 10:39:12 AM
Well said, IMO many people have been making emotional arguments as opposed to logical ones.
Correct, I agree that this is true for both sides, as it is true of every argument. In arguments, Pathos is on the same footing as Logos and Ethos.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on May 11, 2020, 10:44:20 AM
By being overly cautious they havenít learned anything from their mistakes. Theyíre just making the mistake in the opposite direction, instead of using facts to make a rational decision.
Not neccaesarily. A fact based lesson to learn is to realize that there is still much that we don't know about this virus and that we should err on the side of caution.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 11, 2020, 11:35:20 AM
In arguments, Pathos is on the same footing as Logos and Ethos.

They are only on the same footing in regards to convincing others of one's position, they definitely aren't on the same footing in terms of the validity of the argument being made.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 11, 2020, 12:07:03 PM
They are only on the same footing in regards to convincing others of one's position, they definitely aren't on the same footing in terms of the validity of the argument being made.
Iím not saying itís right, Iím saying itís done
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 11, 2020, 12:10:05 PM
Well said, IMO many people have been making emotional arguments as opposed to logical ones.

Iím not saying itís right, Iím saying itís done
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on May 11, 2020, 12:13:32 PM

Correct, I agree that this is true for both sides, as it is true of every argument. In arguments, Pathos is on the same footing as Logos and Ethos.
I think we might need Chaim, only weíre not actually arguing
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on May 11, 2020, 09:40:59 PM
Not neccaesarily. A fact based lesson to learn is to realize that there is still much that we don't know about this virus and that we should err on the side of caution.

I wasnít implying not to be cautious when we donít know enough, rather not be overly cautious for what we do know.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: SY-K on May 12, 2020, 01:42:11 AM
Wuhan, China reported a few new cases yesterday   :-[
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 12, 2020, 01:44:05 AM
Wuhan, China reported a few new cases yesterday   :-[
The virus isnít going away. And we shouldnít freak out over a couple cases. Thatís the whole idea of testing tracing and isolating is too control the spread by knowing who has the virus and therefore isolating it
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: AsherO on May 12, 2020, 07:05:02 AM
The virus isnít going away. And we shouldnít freak out over a couple cases. Thatís the whole idea of testing tracing and isolating is too control the spread by knowing who has the virus and therefore isolating it

The US could hire a million contact tracers and still bungle they job. Bureaucracy is the ultimate antithesis of efficiency, and American bureaucracy is epic.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on May 12, 2020, 07:19:27 AM
https://www.dw.com/en/spike-in-south-korean-infections-linked-to-one-mans-night-out/a-53384855
Latest reports are this one guy infected over 100(!!!) people that night.
He went to 5 different night clubs and exposed over 2000 people.

This (plus the Israeli capsule yeshivos) got me thinking - what if we are going about this all wrong. Long term social isolation just isn't sustainable. And when people break the rules it happens haphazardly across the population, causing tremendous harm.
What if we created a giant color-war. We divided the entire population into 10 color groups - everyone gets a bracelet with a color. Divide every city equally among the colors. You are only allowed to interact with people in your own color. Access to all services is timed by color, supermarkets have a schedule per color, restaurants, etc. That way, we can restrict spread of the virus within your color. Makes contact tracing much easier. We can even gamify it - the color with the least infections gets a prize (more hours at the supermarket?). Just trying to think outside the box.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on May 12, 2020, 08:29:12 AM
https://www.dw.com/en/spike-in-south-korean-infections-linked-to-one-mans-night-out/a-53384855
Latest reports are this one guy infected over 100(!!!) people that night.
He went to 5 different night clubs and exposed over 2000 people.

This (plus the Israeli capsule yeshivos) got me thinking - what if we are going about this all wrong. Long term social isolation just isn't sustainable. And when people break the rules it happens haphazardly across the population, causing tremendous harm.
What if we created a giant color-war. We divided the entire population into 10 color groups - everyone gets a bracelet with a color. Divide every city equally among the colors. You are only allowed to interact with people in your own color. Access to all services is timed by color, supermarkets have a schedule per color, restaurants, etc. That way, we can restrict spread of the virus within your color. Makes contact tracing much easier. We can even gamify it - the color with the least infections gets a prize (more hours at the supermarket?). Just trying to think outside the box.

Separate restaurants for colored people? Need a different marketing theme.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 12, 2020, 09:57:55 AM
Thatís the whole idea of testing tracing and isolating is too control the spread by knowing who has the virus and therefore isolating it
Are we doing that?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 12, 2020, 10:06:56 AM
Are we doing that?
For the most part no. NY is trying too but as a nationwide strategy it has gone out the window. My point is that we shouldnít freak out about 11 cases in Wuhan and call it a second wave.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 12, 2020, 10:08:32 AM
https://www.dw.com/en/spike-in-south-korean-infections-linked-to-one-mans-night-out/a-53384855
Latest reports are this one guy infected over 100(!!!) people that night.
He went to 5 different night clubs and exposed over 2000 people.

This was inevitable unfortunately. When you have a population with little to no immunity one person can spread the virus like wildfire.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 12, 2020, 10:35:10 AM
For the most part no. NY is trying too but as a nationwide strategy it has gone out the window. My point is that we shouldnít freak out about 11 cases in Wuhan and call it a second wave.
We all know what happened to 15 cases.  ;)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 10:43:04 AM
Are we doing that?

It will never work in the USA.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on May 12, 2020, 10:44:01 AM
We all know what happened to 15 cases.  ;)
Bad comparison
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 10:44:55 AM

This (plus the Israeli capsule yeshivos) got me thinking - what if we are going about this all wrong. Long term social isolation just isn't sustainable. And when people break the rules it happens haphazardly across the population, causing tremendous harm.
What if we created a giant color-war. We divided the entire population into 10 color groups - everyone gets a bracelet with a color. Divide every city equally among the colors. You are only allowed to interact with people in your own color. Access to all services is timed by color, supermarkets have a schedule per color, restaurants, etc. That way, we can restrict spread of the virus within your color. Makes contact tracing much easier. We can even gamify it - the color with the least infections gets a prize (more hours at the supermarket?). Just trying to think outside the box.

Is this an excerpt from The Onion?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: AsherO on May 12, 2020, 10:53:10 AM
This (plus the Israeli capsule yeshivos) got me thinking - what if we are going about this all wrong. Long term social isolation just isn't sustainable. And when people break the rules it happens haphazardly across the population, causing tremendous harm.
What if we created a giant color-war. We divided the entire population into 10 color groups - everyone gets a bracelet with a color. Divide every city equally among the colors. You are only allowed to interact with people in your own color. Access to all services is timed by color, supermarkets have a schedule per color, restaurants, etc. That way, we can restrict spread of the virus within your color. Makes contact tracing much easier. We can even gamify it - the color with the least infections gets a prize (more hours at the supermarket?). Just trying to think outside the box.

Pipe dream. The issue will always be the relatively small group of rule-flaunters who do the most damage. This gamification pie-in-the-sky wonít solve that.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 12, 2020, 10:54:27 AM
Pipe dream. The issue will always be the relatively small group of rule-flaunters who do the most damage. This gamification pie-in-the-sky wonít solve that.
Canada is addressing that pretty effectively with $1,000,000 fine for isolation order violators
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 11:08:50 AM
Dr. Fauci and FDA commissioner testifying live in front of Senate.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 12, 2020, 11:11:43 AM
Bad comparison
If we don't get our act together on testing/tracing/quarantine it isn't.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 11:13:31 AM
If we don't get our act together on testing/tracing/quarantine it isn't.

What are they designed to accomplish ?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 11:14:21 AM
Canada is addressing that pretty effectively with $1,000,000 fine for isolation order violators

$1,000,000 ?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 12, 2020, 11:15:49 AM
What are they designed to accomplish ?
Containment.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 11:33:24 AM
Containment.

With 80% of those infected being asymptomatic and with 10/15% false testing, do you really think this can be contained ?
And that is before we take into consideration that it only worked in countries where they started with basically a 0% baseline
and removal of all those infected from their homes to State run quarantine facilities, are you under the impression that would work in the US?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 11:35:05 AM
With 80% of those infected being asymptomatic and with 10/15% false testing, do you really think this can be contained ?
And that is before we take into consideration that it only worked in countries where they started with basically a 0% baseline
and removal of all those infected from their homes to State run quarantine facilities, are you under the impression that would work in the US?

Israel, i'm looking at you.
https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/benjamin-netanyahu-suggests-to-microchip-kids-slammed-by-experts-627381
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 12, 2020, 11:37:10 AM
With 80% of those infected being asymptomatic and with 10/15% false testing, do you really think this can be contained ?
And that is before we take into consideration that it only worked in countries where they started with basically a 0% baseline
and removal of all those infected from their homes to State run quarantine facilities, are you under the impression that would work in the US?
Would suppression be better word to use?
Lets remember most of the country is not NYC. I believe it would work for places like Seattle.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 11:50:30 AM
Would suppression be better word to use?
Lets remember most of the country is not NYC. I believe it would work for places like Seattle.

Don't know about Seattle per se, im sure in some places we might be able to suppress/mitigate.
I just don't believe we are eradicating it, so maybe we should push for herd immunity?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 11:54:38 AM
The US could hire a million contact tracers and still bungle they job. Bureaucracy is the ultimate antithesis of efficiency, and American bureaucracy is epic.

Unless we are discussing a dictatorial regime, like the People's Republic of Anywhereville, where the people get to collectively
make public policy.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on May 12, 2020, 12:10:27 PM
Don't know about Seattle per se, im sure in some places we might be able to suppress/mitigate.
I just don't believe we are eradicating it, so maybe we should push for herd immunity?
I don't think it will be eradicated. I feel it can and will be controlled.
I have no idea how heard immunity works or how much is needed. The more I read about it the less I know.  :)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 12:21:07 PM
I don't think it will be eradicated. I feel it can and will be controlled.
I have no idea how heard immunity works or how much is needed. The more I read about it the less I know.  :)

Which is why it is so dangerous to push public policy like indefinite lockdowns.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 12, 2020, 12:35:00 PM
$1,000,000 ?
Yes. Wake up and smell the coffee.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/news/2020/03/new-order-makes-self-isolation-mandatory-for-individuals-entering-canada.html
Quote
The order will be fully implemented by the Canada Border Services Agency at points of entry by midnight tonight. The Government of Canada will use its authority under the Quarantine Act to ensure compliance with the order. Failure to comply with this Order is an offense under the Quarantine Act. Maximum penalties include a fine of up to $750,000 and/or imprisonment for six months. Further, a person who causes a risk of imminent death or serious bodily harm to another person while wilfully or recklessly contravening this Act or the regulations could be liable for a fine of up to $1,000,000 or to imprisonment of up to three years, or to both. Spot checks will be conducted by the Government of Canada to verify compliance.

No reason to offer any leniency to people risking mass casualties. Israel should do the same.

ETA: It's CAD, not USD.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 12, 2020, 12:51:32 PM
Yes. Wake up and smell the coffee.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/news/2020/03/new-order-makes-self-isolation-mandatory-for-individuals-entering-canada.html
No reason to offer any leniency to people risking mass casualties. Israel should do the same.

ETA: It's CAD, not USD.
so its only for those entering Canada now?!

If you believe they can eradicate it entirely and keep up these measures long term. 
Regardless, do you actually believe we can implement or enforce such a draconian measure in the US (i am skeptical as to whether it's even constitutional)  ?   
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: flyingace on May 13, 2020, 05:07:44 PM
Does anyone know what BP/Williamsburg's numbers look like currently?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on May 13, 2020, 06:32:34 PM
so its only for those entering Canada now?!

If you believe they can eradicate it entirely and keep up these measures long term. 
Regardless, do you actually believe we can implement or enforce such a draconian measure in the US (i am skeptical as to whether it's even constitutional)  ?
Constitution can be amended (or tossed out). It's not the end all.

I don't think America can eradicate it at this point, it would take an extremely strict nationwide lockdown for 3-4 weeks, society wouldn't comply, and has weapons to rebel. The best hope is to slow it down to keep hospitals functioning and hope to advance testing/vaccine/medication, and it's likely most fo the world will remain closed to Americans in one way or another until significant progress is made with testing/vaccine/medication.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on May 13, 2020, 08:15:55 PM
Constitution can be amended (or tossed out). It's not the end all.
You may not like it, but it when it comes to enforcement, you better believe its the end all.
And I'll be glad to bet you 1,000,000 million USD on that.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: skyguy918 on May 13, 2020, 08:44:52 PM
Dr. Fauci and FDA commissioner testifying live in front of Senate.
Just noticed that the admiral mentioned the group testing concept that was posted here earlier on one of the threads.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on May 13, 2020, 08:57:12 PM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/amp/
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: incendia on June 07, 2020, 10:34:00 PM
?s=19
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 07, 2020, 10:38:17 PM
?s=19
Thereís another side to this story though.

When would these states have opened up when it wouldíve been a different story?

The virus is all over the US and there is no way to stop the spread
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 07, 2020, 11:01:52 PM
?s=19
@Lurker
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 07, 2020, 11:05:13 PM
@Lurker
I think people scared him off :(
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yelped on June 07, 2020, 11:22:52 PM
I think people scared him off :(
He'll come back if you give him some good freebies. :)

Maybe the #UPSMethod?  :P
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yesitsme on June 07, 2020, 11:36:11 PM
read his location
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: AsherO on June 08, 2020, 06:57:45 AM
?s=19

Two things to point out:
1. The significant uptick is more than 2 weeks after their reopening, though it does seem like there was a small uptick near the two week mark.
2. If this is an upwards trend then it could quickly snowball RĒL...
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 08, 2020, 07:00:57 AM
?s=19
Can some of this be attributed to increased testing?
Two things to point out:
1. The significant uptick is more than 2 weeks after their reopening, though it does seem like there was a small uptick near the two week mark.
2. If this is an upwards trend then it could quickly snowball RĒL...
Spreading takes longer than we assume, as we don't naturally grasp compounding numbers. We know the virus was in NY in February, and likely in Jan, but wasn't widespread until mid-late March
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 08, 2020, 08:39:38 AM
Two things to point out:
1. The significant uptick is more than 2 weeks after their reopening, though it does seem like there was a small uptick near the two week mark.
2. If this is an upwards trend then it could quickly snowball RĒL...
It can ONLY be this way. You will not have suddenly 10s of thousands of people with it. The average spread is to a handfull of people with some more and some less. It takes time for those 5 people who caught it to spread it to 25 then 125 etc. (the spread to 5 is arbitrary for the example).
Can some of this be attributed to increased testing? Spreading takes longer than we assume, as we don't naturally grasp compounding numbers. We know the virus was in NY in February, and likely in Jan, but wasn't widespread until mid-late March
TO have reached anywhere near the numbers who caught it purim time there had to have been THOUSANDS of cases in the community before purim.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 08, 2020, 08:42:18 AM
TO have reached anywhere near the numbers who caught it purim time there had to have been THOUSANDS of cases in the community before purim.
That's my point.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 08, 2020, 08:56:57 AM
That's my point.
THat is how I understood it.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 08, 2020, 09:00:16 AM
I should clarify that it took a few weeks or months to get from the initial few cases in Jan/Feb to the catastrophic widespread epidemic in mid-late March, and that was even before any preventive measures.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 08, 2020, 09:03:47 AM
I should clarify that it took a few weeks or months to get from the initial few cases in Jan/Feb to the catastrophic widespread epidemic in mid-late March, and that was even before any preventive measures.
Yup and therefore anyone who thinks that because there were only a "few" new known cases in recent weeks this means we are in the clear is missing the boat.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: etech0 on June 08, 2020, 09:05:20 AM
Then there's almost no point in waiting 2 weeks between steps and phases
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 08, 2020, 09:07:15 AM
anyone who thinks that because there were only a "few" new known cases in recent weeks this means we are in the clear is missing the boat.
+1

There is no intellectual argument that Covid is over. Only emotional & political statements 
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 08, 2020, 09:15:13 AM
+1

There is no intellectual argument that Covid is over. Only emotional & political statements 
It just defies logic how people are saying this. I think it's because people see the only only alternative as complete lockdown, they have to go to the other extreme and say it doesn't exist.
It's just the way the world works. Most people lack nuance
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 08, 2020, 09:15:32 AM
It can ONLY be this way. You will not have suddenly 10s of thousands of people with it. The average spread is to a handfull of people with some more and some less. It takes time for those 5 people who caught it to spread it to 25 then 125 etc. (the spread to 5 is arbitrary for the example).TO have reached anywhere near the numbers who caught it purim time there had to have been THOUSANDS of cases in the community before purim.
Why do we even need doctors and professionals if we have all the answers on ddf? If there's anything this pandemic should have taught us its that we are not in charge and have no idea whats going. Yet as time goes one and every curve ball that gets thrown someone here comes out with a new theory and why it really all makes sense. Sad
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 08, 2020, 09:16:45 AM
Why do we even need doctors and professionals if we have all the answers on ddf? If there's anything this pandemic should have taught us its that we are not in charge and have no idea whats going. Yet as time goes one and every curve ball that gets thrown someone here comes out with a new theory and why it really all makes sense. Sad
So instead you need to say that covid is dead? Sad
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on June 08, 2020, 09:17:22 AM
+1

There is no intellectual argument that Covid is over. Only emotional & political statements
Covid is here to stay.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 08, 2020, 09:19:00 AM
So instead you need to say that covid is dead? Sad
Interesting. Never mentioned a word about it yet thats the conclusion you came to
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 08, 2020, 09:25:25 AM
Interesting. Never mentioned a word about it yet thats the conclusion you came to
Sorry, you are correct. I did not correctly remember your opinion
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 08, 2020, 09:33:24 AM
Why do we even need doctors and professionals if we have all the answers on ddf? If there's anything this pandemic should have taught us its that we are not in charge and have no idea whats going. Yet as time goes one and every curve ball that gets thrown someone here comes out with a new theory and why it really all makes sense. Sad
I have been saying exactly this for quite some time.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 08, 2020, 09:51:19 AM
Why do we even need doctors and professionals if we have all the answers on ddf? If there's anything this pandemic should have taught us its that we are not in charge and have no idea whats going. Yet as time goes one and every curve ball that gets thrown someone here comes out with a new theory and why it really all makes sense. Sad
Unfortunately the doctors have been so far off the mark, that you can't blame people for doubting anything they say.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 08, 2020, 04:38:15 PM
Unfortunately the doctors have been so far off the mark, that you can't blame people for doubting anything they say.
Keep seeing this. Which doctors? How were they so far off the mark, and when?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 08, 2020, 04:48:01 PM
Unfortunately the doctors have been so far off the mark, that you can't blame people for doubting anything they say.

If you are going to judge all doctors by Neil Ferguson then yeah.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 08, 2020, 05:27:47 PM
If you are going to judge all doctors by Neil Ferguson then yeah.
When his predictions are given the most weight by the decision makers it kinda makes people lose confidence in the entire system.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 08, 2020, 05:28:39 PM
Keep seeing this. Which doctors? How were they so far off the mark, and when?
Weren't you the one talking about the doctors who were too late to push shutdown?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 08, 2020, 06:07:45 PM
Weren't you the one talking about the doctors who were too late to push shutdown?
I was talking about one doctor and heís still wrong. Politicians were late to shut down, but either way I agree that doctors didnít know much about the virus before they saw it (obviously, and which they have pretty much all said outright from the beginning). Now, where were ďthe doctorsĒ wrong? What did doctors as a group say that was proven wrong?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: good sam on June 08, 2020, 06:17:22 PM
Here's what I'm grappling with. My family has been doing extreme social distancing since the week after purim. I think we should continue doing so until we have strong evidence that no second wave is coming. However, social distancing requires an aggregate effect; I alone cannot prevent the second wave.

If 85% (at least) of my community is not practicing any social distancing, and the same appears to be true in most other communities, and we ourselves are not high risk, why should we continue at all? Convince me otherwise.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 08, 2020, 06:34:15 PM
Here's what I'm grappling with. My family has been doing extreme social distancing since the week after purim. I think we should continue doing so until we have strong evidence that no second wave is coming. However, social distancing requires an aggregate effect; I alone cannot prevent the second wave.

If 85% (at least) of my community is not practicing any social distancing, and the same appears to be true in most other communities, and we ourselves are not high risk, why should we continue at all? Convince me otherwise.
I canít speak for you without knowing your circumstances but you probably can ease up and not practice ďextremeĒ social distancing. As long as you continue to take precautions you are probably doing the hishtadlus youíre supposed to. Just because some people arenít practicing any (which is rare, since automatically just about everyone is currently interacting at least somewhat less than they used to at weddings, school, work, etc.) doesnít mean you taking precautions wonít help.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: good sam on June 08, 2020, 06:40:14 PM
I canít speak for you without knowing your circumstances but you probably can ease up and not practice ďextremeĒ social distancing. As long as you continue to take precautions you are probably doing the hishtadlus youíre supposed to. Just because some people arenít practicing any (which is rare, since automatically just about everyone is currently interacting at least somewhat less than they used to at weddings, school, work, etc.) doesnít mean you taking precautions wonít help.
I don't think this answers my question.

There was a shalom zachor in my neighborhood. It was outdoors but everyone was socializing and eating as normal. I went in a mask for 30 seconds, I was the only one. Shuls are operating nearly at capacity. From what I'm reading here and from what I'm hearing, many other places are the same or worse. If what they are doing will spread the virus, my staying home, or wearing a mask, or keeping a 6 foot distance will not do anything to slow it.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 08, 2020, 06:41:35 PM
I don't think this answers my question.

There was a shalom zachor in my neighborhood. It was outdoors but everyone was socializing and eating as normal. I went in a mask for 30 seconds, I was the only one. Shuls are operating nearly at capacity. From what I'm reading here and from what I'm hearing, many other places are the same or worse. If what they are doing will spread the virus, my staying home, or wearing a mask, or keeping a 6 foot distance will not do anything to slow it.
If 20% of people are careful the wave will be 20% less deadly
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: good sam on June 08, 2020, 07:03:35 PM
If 20% of people are careful the wave will be 20% less deadly
That math doesn't check out, unless the 20% being careful are the most vulnerable.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: cmey on June 08, 2020, 07:58:56 PM
That math doesn't check out, unless the 20% being careful are the most vulnerable.
Depending on how you define most vulnerable if the 20% most vulnerable takes extreme precaution that would probably work out to 90% less deadly, since over 90% of deaths were in the most vulnerable population.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: good sam on June 08, 2020, 08:21:35 PM
Depending on how you define most vulnerable if the 20% most vulnerable takes extreme precaution that would probably work out to 90% less deadly, since over 90% of deaths were in the most vulnerable population.
Yes, I'll revise my statement: if the ones being careful have the same breakdown of vulnerability characteristics as those not being careful, you should have a 20% decrease. But this strengthens my point.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 08, 2020, 08:24:42 PM
Weren't you the one talking about the doctors who were too late to push shutdown?
Yes they should have done it earlier, but again that is policy not science.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: cmey on June 08, 2020, 10:53:14 PM
Heard from a reliable source that the Lakewood frum community has seen positive cases average  in the single digits per week the past few weeks despite shuls opening and hundreds of mesivta and BM bochurim testing to travel out of state with their yeshivos. I would not put any money on a massive second wave in Lakewood, at least until flu season.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 08, 2020, 11:08:35 PM
Yes they should have done it earlier, but again that is policy not science.
Do you expect everyone to be scientists?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 08, 2020, 11:40:50 PM
Heard from a reliable source that the Lakewood frum community has seen positive cases average  in the single digits per week the past few weeks despite shuls opening and hundreds of mesivta and BM bochurim testing to travel out of state with their yeshivos. I would not put any money on a massive second wave in Lakewood, at least until flu season.
If it does spread how long would that take based on science?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 08, 2020, 11:41:24 PM
Do you expect everyone to be scientists?
I expect scientists to be scientists, doctors to be doctors, politicians to be politicians, and people to understand the difference
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 08, 2020, 11:42:33 PM
Do you expect everyone to be scientists?
What should happen is that politician should make policy based on the information provided by relevant experts. What became clear very quickly is how the policies put in place have very little basis in science.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 08, 2020, 11:52:28 PM
What should happen is that politician should make policy based on the information provided by relevant experts. What became clear very quickly is how the policies put in place have very little basis in science.
This is exactly why people lost trust in the establishment. The only remaining option is to follow what you believe is correct, either do lots and lots of research and hopefully find the correct conclusion or do what people always do, follow their heart.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 08, 2020, 11:54:20 PM
This is exactly why people lost trust in the establishment. The only remaining option is to follow what you believe is correct, either do lots and lots of research and hopefully find the correct conclusion or do what people always do, follow their heart.
Yes,we have been agreeing about this for quite some time despite your regularly thinking that i disagree with this.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: AsherO on June 09, 2020, 12:14:08 AM
I expect scientists to be scientists, doctors to be doctors, politicians to be politicians, and people to understand the difference

Itís reasonable to expect scientists, doctors and politicians to all do their jobs. Itís unreasonable to expect much of anything at all from the proverbial ignorant masses.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 09, 2020, 12:22:08 AM
Here's what I'm grappling with. My family has been doing extreme social distancing since the week after purim. I think we should continue doing so until we have strong evidence that no second wave is coming. However, social distancing requires an aggregate effect; I alone cannot prevent the second wave.

If 85% (at least) of my community is not practicing any social distancing, and the same appears to be true in most other communities, and we ourselves are not high risk, why should we continue at all? Convince me otherwise.

Social distancing in March was partly altruistic - to prevent spreading the infection throughout the community, and partly selfish -  to keep the individuals in your family safe. The selfish reason still applies, even if your neighbors are unconcerned.  Given the occasional severe cases in those who are low-risk, and given our complete lack of knowledge of possible long-term effects, it would be better to avoid COVID infection, if possible.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yzj on June 10, 2020, 12:40:19 AM
Come on guys. Lakewood shuls have been open for the better part of a month with thousands of those mispalelim practicing no social distancing whatsoever. Thousands of Lakewood kids are back in school- many of them indoors. Walk around the neighborhood and kids  are all playing with each other in and out of houses. Girls are getting together in houses- dozens at a time. Clothing and other retail stores are open (back door etc.) and many shoppers are without masks.All over town one sees people practically all over each other, and all we have to show for it are 2 positive cases in all of last week.

Where is the huge scary second wave you guys keep telling us is coming to Lakewood because there canít possibly be herd immunity . Iíd like to have bitachon that itís still coming but I must say it sure ainít easy.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Shmobaum on June 10, 2020, 12:58:06 AM
Come on guys. Lakewood shuls have been open for the better part of a month with thousands of those mispalelim practicing no social distancing whatsoever. Thousands of Lakewood kids are back in school- many of them indoors. Walk around the neighborhood and kids  are all playing with each other in and out of houses. Girls are getting together in houses- dozens at a time. Clothing and other retail stores are open (back door etc.) and many shoppers are without masks.All over town one sees people practically all over each other, and all we have to show for it are 2 positive cases in all of last week.

Where is the huge scary second wave you guys keep telling us is coming to Lakewood because there canít possibly be herd immunity . Iíd like to have bitachon that itís still coming but I must say it sure ainít easy.
Yup exactly right. As I wrote few weeks ago, some ppl here would love to see a second wave. I donít know why.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 10, 2020, 01:01:11 AM
some ppl here would love to see a second wave
Vile L"H and utter nonsense.

History has shown that pandemics come in waves, thus the 1918 flu killed many more in the fall than it did in the spring.
Not a soul would want that to happen, but there's nothing wrong with some precautions.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Euclid on June 10, 2020, 01:15:46 AM
Yup exactly right. As I wrote few weeks ago, some ppl here would love to see a second wave. I donít know why.
Do you say the same thing to a parent who makes their child wear a bike helmet? "He just would love to see his kid get hit by a car and fall on his unhelmeted head."
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: RebTuvia on June 10, 2020, 01:19:19 AM
Vile L"H and utter nonsense.

History has shown that pandemics come in waves, thus the 1918 flu killed many more in the fall than it did in the spring.
Not a soul would want that to happen, but there's nothing wrong with some precautions.

How can we predict pandemics based on history, was anything in the recent Pandemic similar to the 1918 flu. Its all unprecedented!
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 10, 2020, 01:21:59 AM
was anything in the recent Pandemic similar to the 1918 flu
What was different?

Come on guys. Lakewood shuls have been open for the better part of a month with thousands of those mispalelim practicing no social distancing whatsoever. Thousands of Lakewood kids are back in school- many of them indoors. Walk around the neighborhood and kids  are all playing with each other in and out of houses. Girls are getting together in houses- dozens at a time. Clothing and other retail stores are open (back door etc.) and many shoppers are without masks.All over town one sees people practically all over each other, and all we have to show for it are 2 positive cases in all of last week.

Where is the huge scary second wave you guys keep telling us is coming to Lakewood because there canít possibly be herd immunity . Iíd like to have bitachon that itís still coming but I must say it sure ainít easy.
When the first wave was going on you probably said everything was fine too...
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Shmobaum on June 10, 2020, 02:07:29 AM
What was different?
When the first wave was going on you probably said everything was fine too...
No sir. I was calling every local doctor to shut the town down!!
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: incendia on June 10, 2020, 07:48:27 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/09/coronavirus-hospitalizations-rising/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/14-states-puerto-rico-hit-their-highest-seven-day-average-new-covid-19-infections-since-june/
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 10, 2020, 11:33:34 AM
How can we predict pandemics based on history, was anything in the recent Pandemic similar to the 1918 flu. Its all unprecedented!
How is it unprecedented? Throughout history pandemics have come in waves.
The onus to prove this will be an exception and isn't worth a concern falls on you.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 10, 2020, 11:44:36 AM
How is it unprecedented? Throughout history pandemics have come in waves.
The onus to prove this will be an exception and isn't worth a concern falls on you.
+1 barring the release of some scientific information we don't know about, I don't see how anyone can say "there is no reason to believe there will be another wave" until fall comes and goes without another wave.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Shmobaum on June 10, 2020, 11:47:12 AM
Does a second wave mean that the virus mutates?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 10, 2020, 11:48:05 AM
Does a second wave mean that the virus mutates?
No. Coronaviruses donít mutate significantly
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 10, 2020, 03:42:46 PM
https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/pandemic-waves/

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: gozalim on June 10, 2020, 05:59:43 PM
Does a second wave mean that the virus mutates?
No. Coronaviruses donít mutate significantly
then whatever level antibodies/herd immunity are present (in hard hit communities) will still provide the same protection then that they will now.
the question of wether that wave is immediately on reopening or come fall is only if transmission is seasonally affected
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 10, 2020, 06:14:43 PM
then whatever level antibodies/herd immunity are present (in hard hit communities) will still provide the same protection then that they will now.
the question of wether that wave is immediately on reopening or come fall is only if transmission is seasonally affected

That is also dependent on how long the body's immunity to it lasts. That is not the same for all viruses. I remember reading that for other Coronaviruses it is about 2 years but htat a vaccine can still last longer.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: fresar on June 10, 2020, 11:44:08 PM
How is it unprecedented? Throughout history pandemics have come in waves.
The onus to prove this will be an exception and isn't worth a concern falls on you.

The last panadmic was 100 years ago, modern medicine etc can help a lot to avoid a second wave
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 10, 2020, 11:49:49 PM
The last panadmic was 100 years ago, modern medicine etc can help a lot to avoid a second wave
Cool story!

So just to be clear, we rely on Doctors to have medicine that they say doesn't exist to control this virus, but we don't rely on Doctors warning that there can be a 2nd wave as there have been for past pandemics?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Moshe123 on June 11, 2020, 12:10:18 AM
Why would a potential second wave in the fall have anything to do with distancing in early summer?
Besides, this virus is affecting areas where it's summer. It's not like the flu. I think we have a lot higher herd immunity and that is the sole reason why it's bh not spreading.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 11, 2020, 07:57:39 AM
Why would a potential second wave in the fall have anything to do with distancing in early summer?
Besides, this virus is affecting areas where it's summer. It's not like the flu. I think we have a lot higher herd immunity and that is the sole reason why it's bh not spreading.
Might be true, might not be true. Is it worth risking public health over?
It seems so clear that wearing a mask reduces the risk of spread of disease - do you think if we stopped the shutdown and just required mask wearing (and encouraged social distancing) - would people listen? Is that the best path forward?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 11, 2020, 08:21:34 AM
Why would a potential second wave in the fall have anything to do with distancing in early summer?
Besides, this virus is affecting areas where it's summer. It's not like the flu. I think we have a lot higher herd immunity and that is the sole reason why it's bh not spreading.

Why are you limiting the potential to the fall?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: incendia on June 11, 2020, 08:34:52 AM
Why would a potential second wave in the fall have anything to do with distancing in early summer?
Besides, this virus is affecting areas where it's summer. It's not like the flu. I think we have a lot higher herd immunity and that is the sole reason why it's bh not spreading.

If (some paaerts of the country have a linear upwards curve) it follows a similar path like 1918 it still important to control it now for a few reasons

People can still get sick and die during the off season-people do catch flues and colds during the summer.

If there is a 2nd wave in fall, its better to start at a lower level than a higher level and puts us in a stronger position to avoid the most harsh of mitigation protocols

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 11, 2020, 09:17:03 AM
Might be true, might not be true. Is it worth risking public health over?
It seems so clear that wearing a mask reduces the risk of spread of disease - do you think if we stopped the shutdown and just required mask wearing (and encouraged social distancing) - would people listen? Is that the best path forward?

Whoever would catch something in the fall caught it from SOMEONE
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 11, 2020, 09:40:03 AM
If there is a 2nd wave in fall, its better to start at a lower level than a higher level and puts us in a stronger position to avoid the most harsh of mitigation protocols
OTOH, if more people get it before the fall there are less people susceptible in the fall.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 11, 2020, 09:48:21 AM
OTOH, if more people get it before the fall there are less people susceptible in the fall.
If you can time it perfectly
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: fresar on June 11, 2020, 03:27:10 PM
Cool story!

So just to be clear, we rely on Doctors to have medicine that they say doesn't exist to control this virus, but we don't rely on Doctors warning that there can be a 2nd wave as there have been for past pandemics?

It could be it would be a 2nd wave, but now we know much better how to treat patients and to avoid deads then we did 3 months ago.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 11, 2020, 04:03:25 PM
It could be it would be a 2nd wave, but now we know much better how to treat patients and to avoid deads then we did 3 months ago.
Not really, but OK.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 11, 2020, 06:39:46 PM
Not really, but OK.
We know much more about it now than we did 3 months ago. For example we now know that ventilators were killing people.

If you want you can argue it's not enough, but we definitely know much more now.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 11, 2020, 06:44:10 PM
For example we no know that ventilators were killing people.

Not really, but OK.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 11, 2020, 06:46:49 PM
For example we no know that ventilators were killing people.
Source?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 11, 2020, 06:50:48 PM
Source?
Here's an article from 2 months ago https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200415/ventilators-helping-or-harming-covid-19-patients#1 (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200415/ventilators-helping-or-harming-covid-19-patients#1)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 11, 2020, 06:51:55 PM
Here's an article from 2 months ago https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200415/ventilators-helping-or-harming-covid-19-patients#1 (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200415/ventilators-helping-or-harming-covid-19-patients#1)
Thanks for a link to a completely inconclusive article.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 12, 2020, 11:19:32 AM
It could be it would be a 2nd wave, but now we know much better how to treat patients and to avoid deads then we did 3 months ago.
Yup, we know that HCQ works
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ckmk47 on June 12, 2020, 11:27:22 AM
We know much more about it now than we did 3 months ago. For example we now know that ventilators were killing people.

If you want you can argue it's not enough, but we definitely know much more now.
Agree: Medical personnel know a lot more about treating Covid-19.
Hospitals are not overwhelmed so that medical personnel can concentrate more fully on the patient and give better care.
Disagree: Using certain settings on ventilators are harmful in covid-19 pneumonia. 

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 12, 2020, 11:30:21 AM
Agree: Medical personnel know a lot more about treating Covid-19.
Hospitals are not overwhelmed so that medical personnel can concentrate more fully on the patient and give better care.
Disagree: Using certain settings on ventilators are harmful in covid-19 pneumonia. 
What have they learned that would make for a different outcome were there to be a 2nd wave before a vaccine comes out?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ckmk47 on June 12, 2020, 05:09:57 PM
What have they learned that would make for a different outcome were there to be a 2nd wave before a vaccine comes out?
Giving oxygen at home based on (pulse/ox) oxygen levels. (At least in our community.)
Medical stuff:
How to set the respirators for covid pneumonia.
Tolerance for high CO2 levels as long as the patient is oxygenating.
Which drugs to give at which signs.
I'm sure more that I (not a doctor)don't know.

And don't discount the not being overwhelmed part; the patients get more attention.

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 12, 2020, 05:31:11 PM
Giving oxygen at home based on (pulse/ox) oxygen levels. (At least in our community.)
Medical stuff:
How to set the respirators for covid pneumonia.
Tolerance for high CO2 levels as long as the patient is oxygenating.
Which drugs to give at which signs.
I'm sure more that I (not a doctor)don't know.

And don't discount the not being overwhelmed part; the patients get more attention.
Who said things won't be overwhelmed if there's a true 2nd wave?
Which drugs have proved to work well for COVID-19?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: incendia on June 12, 2020, 06:38:20 PM
I don't think we should be talking about a 2nd wave until we're out of the first wave


?s=20
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 12, 2020, 06:51:40 PM
I don't think we should be talking about a 2nd wave until we're out of the first wave


?s=20

Your guy is missing record numbers in Arkansas and California this week. Don't worry, it's all an illusion.

I don't think you'll see an immediate spike. Given the 7-14 day incubation period and the time it would take for the spread to regain traction, I don't think you would see large numbers until 1 month after restrictions are lifted. Personally, the date I'm watching is around June 10th. If the US can get through Memorial Day weekend without completely f-ing everything up, I'll have a certain amount of confidence loosening my family's restrictive protocol. I don't have a lot of faith in that happening, though.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 12, 2020, 06:54:27 PM
Your guy is missing record numbers in Arkansas and California this week. Don't worry, it's all an illusion.
Welcome back. And good call.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 12, 2020, 06:58:02 PM
Your guy is missing record numbers in Arkansas and California this week. Don't worry, it's all an illusion.
Cute. But florida barely had any cases originally so how is it a second wave? If new york had a tremendous uptick that would be a second wave... there still on the first
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 12, 2020, 07:02:26 PM
Does it matter if it is the first or second wave?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 12, 2020, 07:08:27 PM
Does it matter if it is the first or second wave?
There are people who would really like one, just so they can say told you so
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 12, 2020, 07:10:27 PM
There are people who would really like one, just so they can say told you so
Add to worst of DDF thread.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yzj on June 12, 2020, 07:51:08 PM
I don't think we should be talking about a 2nd wave until we're out of the first wave


?s=20
Lakewood-almost no cases with thousands of frum people in shuls and schools with no SD. Same for many NYC frum communities. People are confusing places that havenít been hit hard and are indeed susceptible to a second (first?) wave and places that have been hit and are not seeing any further activity nor are they even remotely likely to see a large second wave going forward.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 13, 2020, 09:58:38 PM
There are people who would really like one, just so they can say told you so
A person dies. Does it matter if you say it was from 1st, 2nd, 3rd ect wave?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 13, 2020, 11:27:24 PM
There are people who would really like one, just so they can say told you so
Vile
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 13, 2020, 11:34:00 PM
Add to worst of DDF thread.
I would put it in the DACOTY
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 13, 2020, 11:54:20 PM
Lakewood-almost no cases with thousands of frum people in shuls and schools with no SD. Same for many NYC frum communities. People are confusing places that havenít been hit hard and are indeed susceptible to a second (first?) wave and places that have been hit and are not seeing any further activity nor are they even remotely likely to see a large second wave going forward.
Source? (medical)
There are people who would really like one, just so they can say told you so
Did you think this was a normal thing to say in any way for any reason?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 13, 2020, 11:56:06 PM
I don't think we should be talking about a 2nd wave until we're out of the first wave


?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/13/anthony-fauci-second-wave-coronavirus-cases

But Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases who has been sidelined by the White House since April, after breaking with Donald Trumpís position on reopening the economy, told CNN on Friday increases in cases in several states were not necessarily indicative of a ďsecond spikeĒ of infections.

ďWhen you start to see increases in hospitalisation, thatís a surefire situation that youíve got to pay close attention to,Ē Fauci said.

ďIt is not inevitable that you will have a so-called Ďsecond waveí in the fall, or even a massive increase if you approach it in the proper way,Ē he added, advising people to maintain social distancing and to continue to wear masks in public.

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yzj on June 14, 2020, 01:25:41 AM
Source? (medical)Did you think this was a normal thing to say in any way for any reason?
I donít think a medical source is necessary at this point. Not when you have this
going on in frum communities and similar but smaller scale in Lakewood and numbers havenít budged.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 14, 2020, 08:38:55 AM
Cute. But florida barely had any cases originally so how is it a second wave? If new york had a tremendous uptick that would be a second wave... there still on the first

Who said second wave? @incendia said we shouldn't be talking about a second wave until the first is over when he quoted that tweet with the record numbers.

Serious question: you seem to be of the opinion that Covid is irrelevant to your community specifically and the NY/NY Jewish communities in general. Why do you still hang around the Covid board if it's null and void? Seems to be an epic waste of your time...
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: moko on June 14, 2020, 08:47:22 AM
Why do you still hang around the Covid board if it's null and void? Seems to be an epic waste of your time...
that describes the entire JS board and some more... Yet we're all here  :)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 09:20:36 AM
Serious question: you seem to be of the opinion that Covid is irrelevant to your community specifically and the NY/NY Jewish communities in general. Why do you still hang around the Covid board if it's null and void? Seems to be an epic waste of your time...
Even those who believe COVID is gone never to be seen again are affected by the lockdown.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 10:10:54 AM
Lakewood-almost no cases with thousands of frum people in shuls and schools with no SD. Same for many NYC frum communities. People are confusing places that havenít been hit hard and are indeed susceptible to a second (first?) wave and places that have been hit and are not seeing any further activity nor are they even remotely likely to see a large second wave going forward.

As a senior Crown Heights Hatzolah member put it to me on Shabbos: Places that didn't experience what Crown Heights, Williamsburg and Boro Park experienced (we were discussing EY) will keep on seeing flare-ups. While our communities have experienced virtually no new cases for weeks, despite going back to normal. This has been the case for weeks.

Driving down Bedford Avenue on Friday it felt like I crossed a border at Park Avenue. Until that points masks were seen everywhere. Once Park Avenue was crossed, there was not a face (or even chin-) mask to be seen (except for an occasional outsider passing through).
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 14, 2020, 10:50:18 AM
I donít think a medical source is necessary at this point. Not when you have this
going on in frum communities and similar but smaller scale in Lakewood and numbers havenít budged.
You said there is no chance of a second wave occurring at a future date. That has nothing to do with there not having been a resurgence yet.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 14, 2020, 10:54:05 AM
As a senior Crown Heights Hatzolah member put it to me on Shabbos: Places that didn't experience what Crown Heights, Williamsburg and Boro Park experienced (we were discussing EY) will keep on seeing flare-ups. While our communities have experienced virtually no new cases for weeks, despite going back to normal. This has been the case for weeks.

Driving down Bedford Avenue on Friday it felt like I crossed a border at Park Avenue. Until that points masks were seen everywhere. Once Park Avenue was crossed, there was not a face (or even chin-) mask to be seen (except for an occasional outsider passing through).
Has it been your experience that Hatzalah members understand this virus more than doctors and other professionals? Everyoneís been saying it and heís no more an expert than the next guy.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 10:56:16 AM
Has it been your experience that Hatzalah members understand this virus more than doctors and other professionals? Everyoneís been saying it and heís no more an expert than the next guy.

Exactly. And the Doctors and health professionals don't understand it either!

אין לו לדיין מה שעיניו רואות.

Those that lack the humility to acknowledge that they don't know and don't understand, and that opposing views might be valid, lose credibility.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 14, 2020, 10:59:28 AM
Exactly. And the Doctors and health professionals don't understand it either!

אין לו לדיין מה שעיניו רואות.

Those that lack the humility to acknowledge that they don't know and don't understand, and that opposing views might be valid, lose credibility.
You took the words right out of my mouth.

Also, doctors do understand it better than Hatzalah members and laymen. What is so hard for people to understand about this?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on June 14, 2020, 11:18:11 AM
אין לו לדיין מה שעיניו רואות.


That does not mean that everyone is qualified to interpret what they see to understand where it can potential lead.
One of the most important things for a dayan is to know when he has the tools to understand what the data really means. Does the lack of cases now mean that we don't have what to worry about or is it simply that it takes more time that they are assuming for things to blow up? I hope that it means we are done, but don't have confidence that every person who is qualified to keep someone alive for a few minutes to get them to a hospital has enough knowledge to bring what they are seeing to an actionable interpretation.
Hopefully it will turn out well. If it does that does not translate to everyone having said that we can go back to life as usual right here and now having been correct.
I will leave you with this:
Just because it worked out doesn't mean you were right or smart. A dumb choice can also work out well.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 11:35:17 AM
As a senior Crown Heights Hatzolah member put it to me on Shabbos: Places that didn't experience what Crown Heights, Williamsburg and Boro Park experienced (we were discussing EY) will keep on seeing flare-ups. While our communities have experienced virtually no new cases for weeks, despite going back to normal. This has been the case for weeks.

Driving down Bedford Avenue on Friday it felt like I crossed a border at Park Avenue. Until that points masks were seen everywhere. Once Park Avenue was crossed, there was not a face (or even chin-) mask to be seen (except for an occasional outsider passing through).
If I were a virus, walking down Park Avenue, and had my druthers, I'd turn down the street of the unmasked.

And if the virus makes that turn, we'll all regret it.  Maybe not today.  Maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of our lives.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 11:56:01 AM
You took the words right out of my mouth.

Also, doctors do understand it better than Hatzalah members and laymen. What is so hard for people to understand about this?

How much Mandarin do you understand? If 0 then I understand more than you do. How about Turkish? My Turkish vocabulary is probably at about 2,000% of my Mandarin vocabulary. Does that mean I can have a most basic telephone conversation in Turkish? No. Then we get to Arabic. My vocabulary there is probably also several thousand percent my Turkish vocabulary. Can I have a telephone conversation? No! Can I pick up a gist of a TV news report? Sometimes. Can I say I understand Arabic in a way that can be relied upon? No.

I hope you get my point.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 11:57:00 AM
If I were a virus, walking down Park Avenue, and had my druthers, I'd turn down the street of the unmasked.

And if the virus makes that turn, we'll all regret it.  Maybe not today.  Maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of our lives.

Except that you're not a virus.  If you were, you'd likely to be decimated and die out there.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 14, 2020, 12:16:48 PM
How much Mandarin do you understand? If 0 then I understand more than you do. How about Turkish? My Turkish vocabulary is probably at about 2,000% of my Mandarin vocabulary. Does that mean I can have a most basic telephone conversation in Turkish? No. Then we get to Arabic. My vocabulary there is probably also several thousand percent my Turkish vocabulary. Can I have a telephone conversation? No! Can I pick up a gist of a TV news report? Sometimes. Can I say I understand Arabic in a way that can be relied upon? No.

I hope you get my point.
Iím not trying to be clever but I honestly donít.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 12:26:56 PM
Except that you're not a virus.  If you were, you'd likely to be decimated and die out there.
Not if I got inhaled into the nasal passages of a susceptible person without a mask.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 12:29:20 PM
Iím not trying to be clever but I honestly donít.

Let's try a different one:

Quote
A chassid by the name of Reb Gershon Ber described the extent and depth of a tzaddikís Torah knowledge. Reb Gershon Ber himself was a Torah genius and in his times was considered one of the greatest minds in the Chabad-Chassidic community ó someone who understood the deep, abstract concepts of chassidic philosophy on the highest level.

He said, ďIf I would compare myself to the great chassid Reb Hillel Paritcher5 and compare the depth of my understanding to his, I would have to compare myself to a cat. I donít mean,Ē he explained, ďthat as far as I am from the level of a cat, that is how distant I am to him. No. Reb Hillel Paritcherís depth is so incredible that compared to him, the cat and I are of equal distance from him.Ē

He continued, ďBut if I would compare the level and depth of Reb Hillel Paritcher to that of the Tzemach Tzedek (who was the Rebbe at that time), I would also compare Reb Hillel to the cat. And I donít mean that as distant as the cat is from Reb Hillel Paritcher, that is how distant he is to the Tzemach Tzedek. The depth of Torah knowledge of the Tzemach Tzedek is so incredible, that compared to him, Reb Hillel Paritcher and the cat are of equal distance to him.Ē

Source: https://www.sie.org/templates/sie/article_cdo/aid/2296329/jewish/Chapter-Two-But-Is-It-Jewish.htm
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 14, 2020, 12:48:16 PM
Let's try a different one:

Source: https://www.sie.org/templates/sie/article_cdo/aid/2296329/jewish/Chapter-Two-But-Is-It-Jewish.htm
I understand the concept, but how is this relevant?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 12:57:34 PM
I have thought for a long time that the message of this pandemic was to show us how little we know. I'm amazed that we have taken that message to mean that experts know as little as us and therefore we don't need to take their opinion into account
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 01:09:31 PM
I have thought for a long time that the message of this pandemic was to show us how little we know. I'm amazed that we have taken that message to mean that experts know as little as us and therefore we don't need to take their opinion into account

Their opinions were taken into account and held in high regard, until they failed on a few basic fronts:

1. Acknowledging how little they actually know and understand.
2. Adapting their guidance and opinions to the actual evidence.
3. Cool headed thinking based on acquired experience.
4. Big picture thinking about the situation.

They are simply eroding their own credibility.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 14, 2020, 01:12:14 PM
I have thought for a long time that the message of this pandemic was to show us how little we know. I'm amazed that we have taken that message to mean that experts know as little as us and therefore we don't need to take their opinion into account
Like everything nowadays. If it fits the narrative they know what they are talking about. If it doesn't fit the narrative then they don't know what they are talking about.

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 01:14:04 PM
Their opinions were taken into account and held in high regard, until they failed on a few basic fronts:

1. Acknowledging how little they actually know and understand.
2. Adapting their guidance and opinions to the actual evidence.
3. Cool headed thinking based on acquired experience.
4. Big picture thinking about the situation.

They are simply eroding their own credibility.
Their opinions are still taken into account, albeit with a very big grain of salt.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 01:24:19 PM
How much Mandarin do you understand? If 0 then I understand more than you do. How about Turkish? My Turkish vocabulary is probably at about 2,000% of my Mandarin vocabulary. Does that mean I can have a most basic telephone conversation in Turkish? No. Then we get to Arabic. My vocabulary there is probably also several thousand percent my Turkish vocabulary. Can I have a telephone conversation? No! Can I pick up a gist of a TV news report? Sometimes. Can I say I understand Arabic in a way that can be relied upon? No.

I hope you get my point.
And if my life, or anyone's life, was dependent on me getting a message across in Arabic and I said, well the former redhead would fail a test in Arabic, so I'll just go at it myself - what would you say to me?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 01:32:51 PM
And if my life, or anyone's life, was dependent on me getting a message across in Arabic and I said, well the former redhead would fail a test in Arabic, so I'll just go at it myself - what would you say to me?

The other part of the story is that there's no one that can get it across in Arabic, it would probably tell you to resort to non verbal communication. Oh, in several communities in NYC area said non-verbal communication is saying something very clearly to anyone looking.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 01:39:23 PM
The other part of the story is that there's no one that can get it across in Arabic, it would probably tell you to resort to non verbal communication. Oh, in several communities in NYC area said non-verbal communication is saying something very clearly to anyone looking.
I just don't get why we assume that what has happened will continue to happen. Maybe the non-verbal communication is actually telling you something really bad is coming and you should be careful, but you don't know the Arab culture and therefore don't know how to read that non-verbal communication?
I'm not saying something bad is coming. I just find it fascinating that we assume that we know because of a limited set of data. It just doesn't make sense to me. Maybe it won't, I hope it won't. But how can we be so sure.
And again, I'm not therefore advocating for lockdown, but simple measure like mask wearing seems to be a low cost safeguard
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 01:40:12 PM
Like everything nowadays. If it fits the narrative they know what they are talking about. If it doesn't fit the narrative then they don't know what they are talking about.


This. Which is to say, we've learned nothing
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 01:45:11 PM

And again, I'm not therefore advocating for lockdown, but simple measure like mask wearing seems to be a low cost safeguard

IIRC I posted elsewhere 'round here. Going too far and extreme one way, simply backfired.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 14, 2020, 01:56:34 PM
By all accounts, especially the articles and studies you are all posting here multiple times a day, the knowledge and understanding of this virus is growing exponentially by the day. If you've seen the damage this can do, why wouldn't you take precautions, even if there's a low chance of it hitting your community again?

At the risk of using a tired comparison, meteorologists get the weather wrong all the time. Do we take their word as gospel? Heck no. But when a storm is heading our way, we've got those sites on refresh. And when it's a super-storm, like a hurricane or a nor'easter, you take every precaution necessary, even if it will end up missing you. The risk here is high. This is possibly the biggest storm we've faced in our lifetime. Why are we ignoring medical advice because they got some things wrong in the past?

As for the argument that you don't need experts to explain to you what you're seeing with your own eyes, I'd like you to see the eye of a hurricane. Some of the most beautiful weather happens before the back end of the storm demolishes everything in it's path.

Some of you play stocks. Buffett has history, and is respected because of it. That doesn't mean you always agree or follow his lead, but when he talks, you pay attention. Fauci made his career on HIV. A disease that was considered a death sentence when he started is now as manageable as diabetes. By all accounts, it was a terrifying disease and one we still take serious precautions to avoid. When it comes to Covid, his concerns aren't just treatment or deaths, but of long-term effects for people of all ages. If he spent 30 years on HIV, and he tells you that THIS virus scares him more than that, why wouldn't you pay attention?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 02:02:13 PM
At the risk of using a tired comparison, meteorologists get the weather wrong all the time. Do we take their word as gospel? Heck no. But when a storm is heading our way, we've got those sites on refresh. And when it's a super-storm, like a hurricane or a nor'easter, you take every precaution necessary, even if it will end up missing you. The risk here is high. This is possibly the biggest storm we've faced in our lifetime. Why are we ignoring medical advice because they got some things wrong in the past?
This is actually the perfect example, the more meteorologists are "overly cautious" and the more they're wrong about incoming major storms that don't happen the less people listen to them and the more people stay home when there is a real dangerous storm.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 02:04:33 PM
This is actually the perfect example, the more meteorologists are "overly cautious" and the more they're wrong about incoming major storms that don't happen the less people listen to them and the more people stay home when there is a real dangerous storm.
Love it. Now we are blaming the experts that we aren't listening to them. As if that will give us some solace if in the end they are right
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 02:07:11 PM
Love it. Now we are blaming the experts that we aren't listening to them. As if that will give us some solace if in the end they are right
If you want to know why people don't listen to "experts" it's because they have a CYA mentality so they always lean toward being cautious. Most people are not interested in listening to what an expert says to CHA.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 02:10:45 PM
If you want to know why people don't listen to "experts" it's because they have a CYA mentality so they always lean toward being cautious. Most people are not interested in listening to what an expert says to CHA.
Love it. Now we are blaming the experts that we aren't listening to them. As if that will give us some solace if in the end they are right
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 14, 2020, 02:12:54 PM
This is actually the perfect example, the more meteorologists are "overly cautious" and the more they're wrong about incoming major storms that don't happen the less people listen to them and the more people stay home when there is a real dangerous storm.

If you live in an area that has seen real devastation from weather, you listen to the meteorologists even though they've been wrong before. And even when you think the storm will miss, you make sure you have water and non-perishables stocked up. NY/NJ Jews aren't living in a place where doctors have been wrong time and time again. They don't live in a place where the storm has consistently missed them. The doctors were wrong on some things, and they were late to warn everyone of the dangers. As a result, the Jewish communities were hit with their highest death tolls in 70 years. If anything, wouldn't it pay to be more cautious than the doctors?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 02:32:01 PM
If you want to know why people don't listen to "experts" it's because they have a CYA mentality so they always lean toward being cautious. Most people are not interested in listening to what an expert says to CHA.
Why do you belittle the experts?  An expert is simply someone with knowledge, skills, competence in a particular field.  I consider them all of value, as they can provide something that I lack. 

We have our own terms for "expert":
Sure, they're human, they make mistakes, we don't always agree with them or obey them. 
But we value their expertise, don't we?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: B.D.Da'ehu on June 14, 2020, 02:35:28 PM
IIRC I posted elsewhere 'round here. Going too far and extreme one way, simply backfired.
As I posted elsewhere 'round here.. Because authorities went too far you now will no longer take some simple steps to protect yourself, your family and your community?


What's with this disdain when one mentions you should wear a mask and not pretend covid is done for good?

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 02:40:09 PM
Why do you belittle the experts?  An expert is simply someone with knowledge, skills, competence in a particular field.  I consider them all of value, as they can provide something that I lack. 

We have our own terms for "expert":
  • expert in education = michanech
  • expert in community affairs = askan
  • expert in halacha = posek
  • expert in credit cards = Dan
Sure, they're human, they make mistakes, we don't always agree with them or obey them. 
But we value their expertise, don't we?
Of course we value their expertise, we also value the freedom to not be forced to listen to their predictions based on worst case scenario.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 02:40:52 PM
As I posted elsewhere 'round here.. Because authorities went too far you now will no longer take some simple steps to protect yourself, your family and your community?


What's with this disdain when one mentions you should wear a mask and not pretend covid is done for good?
masks make it difficult to breathe, you make it sound like wearing a mask is not without it's own problems.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 02:43:07 PM
As I posted elsewhere 'round here.. Because authorities went too far you now will no longer take some simple steps to protect yourself, your family and your community?


What's with this disdain when one mentions you should wear a mask and not pretend covid is done for good?

My immediate family and almost anyone I know in my community had the virus and recovered. Who do you suggest we protect from whom?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 14, 2020, 02:44:08 PM
masks make it difficult to breathe, you make it sound like wearing a mask is not without it's own problems.

And some shoes make it difficult to walk. You don't say, "Screw it, I'm going barefoot." You spend a little time and a little money and find a better fitting shoe.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 14, 2020, 02:54:19 PM
Why do you belittle the experts?  An expert is simply someone with knowledge, skills, competence in a particular field.  I consider them all of value, as they can provide something that I lack. 

We have our own terms for "expert":
  • expert in education = michanech
  • expert in community affairs = askan
  • expert in halacha = posek
  • expert in credit cards = Dan
Sure, they're human, they make mistakes, we don't always agree with them or obey them. 
But we value their expertise, don't we?
Now you went of the deep end with that last one. Dan never makes mistakes!
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 02:56:22 PM
Lol, if only.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 03:17:39 PM
As for the argument that you don't need experts to explain to you what you're seeing with your own eyes, I'd like you to see the eye of a hurricane. Some of the most beautiful weather happens before the back end of the storm demolishes everything in it's path.

Some of you play stocks. Buffett has history, and is respected because of it. That doesn't mean you always agree or follow his lead, but when he talks, you pay attention. Fauci made his career on HIV. A disease that was considered a death sentence when he started is now as manageable as diabetes. By all accounts, it was a terrifying disease and one we still take serious precautions to avoid. When it comes to Covid, his concerns aren't just treatment or deaths, but of long-term effects for people of all ages. If he spent 30 years on HIV, and he tells you that THIS virus scares him more than that, why wouldn't you pay attention?

בבא קמא פה ע״א

דתניא דבי ר' ישמעאל אומר ורפא ירפא מכאן שניתן רשות לרופא לרפאות

Doctors have been granted limited authority. Scaring people or spreading fear and panic isn't within their granted mandate.

As for your weather analogy, I hope you do realize the flaws. In case you don't, it's akin to a community that was hit by a hurricane, some structures succumbed, most survived fully in tact, yet the "experts" are putting mandatory vacate orders in place on all structures, when they have no evidence that another storm is coming (and it seems to most observers that most structures are strong enough to withstand a hurricane even IF one were to come).
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 03:24:55 PM
בבא קמא פה ע״א

דתניא דבי ר' ישמעאל אומר ורפא ירפא מכאן שניתן רשות לרופא לרפאות

Doctors have been granted limited authority. Scaring people or spreading fear and panic isn't within their granted mandate.

That has nothing to do with the Gemara you quoted. Doctors needed permission to act as a שליח and heal as a representative of G-d, who is the only healer. There is no need for similar authorization to scare people.

It is the duty of anybody with knowledge of forthcoming danger to scare people and spread panic. Had our community leaders done so in March, many lives would have been spared.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 03:29:27 PM
That has nothing to do with the Gemara you quoted. Doctors needed permission to act as a שליח and heal as a representative of G-d, who is the only healer. There is no need for similar authorization to scare people.

It is the duty of anybody with knowledge of forthcoming danger to scare people and spread panic. Had our community leaders done so in March, many lives would have been spared.
Duty to scare people? To spread panic? What's your source for that?

The quote I brought was about the "enumerated powers" given to Doctors.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 03:31:23 PM
The quote I brought was about the "enumerated powers" given to Doctors.
Yes, but does your quote mean a doctor doesn't have the power of speech? The power to heal required specific delegation. Other powers are inherent.

Duty to scare people? To spread panic? What's your source for that?
לא תעמוד על דם רעיך
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 03:35:20 PM
That has nothing to do with the Gemara you quoted. Doctors needed permission to act as a שליח and heal as a representative of G-d, who is the only healer. There is no need for similar authorization to scare people.

It is the duty of anybody with knowledge of forthcoming danger to scare people and spread panic. Had our community leaders done so in March, many lives would have been spared.
Unwarranted panic (which describes most of the panic related to COVID) is directly responsible for people not listening to any guidance. It is the reason people are sceptical about anything "experts" say.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 03:38:05 PM
Unwarranted panic (which describes most of the panic related to COVID)

People said that in March too.


is directly responsible for people not listening to any guidance. It is the reason people are sceptical about anything "experts" say.

Speculation
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 03:41:36 PM
Yes, but does your quote mean a doctor doesn't have the power of speech? The power to heal required specific delegation. Other powers are inherent.
לא תעמוד על דם רעיך

The authority to spread panic isn't inherent.

There's a huge difference between לא תעמוד על דם רעך and spreading panic and fear.

Panic and fear can have grave effects.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 03:42:42 PM
The authority to spread panic isn't inherent.

There's a huge difference between לא תעמוד על דם רעך and spreading panic and fear.

Panic and fear can have grave effects.
That's a completely different argument than your original one.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 03:43:10 PM
People said that in March too. 
Odd that people forget that.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 03:49:10 PM
People said that in March too.
Probably because they were sceptical about what "experts" say.
 If I understand correctly, your position is:
Doctors - were wrong in March but everyone should just listen to what they say now without question.

Regular people - were wrong in March so anything a regular person says should be dismissed in favor of what the doctor says.
Speculation
First hand experiance.
That's a completely different argument than your original one.
That's how I understood what he originally said.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 14, 2020, 03:50:04 PM
As for your weather analogy, I hope you do realize the flaws. In case you don't, it's akin to a community that was hit by a hurricane, some structures succumbed, most survived fully in tact, yet the "experts" are putting mandatory vacate orders in place on all structures, when they have no evidence that another storm is coming (and it seems to most observers that most structures are strong enough to withstand a hurricane even IF one were to come).

All analogies are imperfect. There are some issues with your interpretation of this one, though. First of all, you're assuming the storm has passed and you're talking about another storm. By all accounts, this storm has not passed. It may not be in your neighborhood at this exact moment, but it is still going strong. Second, no one is asking anyone to evacuate, just continue to take precautions. Third, it's deeper than the superficial "some structures succumbed, most survived fully intact" analogy that you posit. People have died. People have been injured. While most houses remain intact and structurally sound, there have been others which sustained damage in the many degrees between whole and gone. Just because you think your house is sound, and you may have very good reason to believe so, there are no guarantees there. Furthermore, even if your home is sound, that says nothing about your shul, your business, your neighbor's home or business, or your community's infrastructure.

As an aside, I believe you're making the mistake I see time and again from people in the NY/NJ area, which is lumping doctors and government together when talking about "authorities." I get that your government has been excessively harsh in their approach, but that has nothing to do with following medical advice.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 03:54:41 PM
Odd that people forget that.
Yup. The Corona Is Over camp applies no reasoning whatsoever. The thread should be renamed 'How can there not be a second wave?' They are full of claims that Corona is gone, but not one of them can explain it, and there is absolute evidence that it will return. (Irans' second wave, full viral sequencing showing no mutation, confined ships showing 60%+ of the population is susceptible, and countless seroprevalence studies showing no more than 20% immunity in EU/US)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 03:54:58 PM
@avromie7 and @ExGingi - I'm puzzled by what you saw as "spreading panic and fear".
 
When I have to make a choice in an unfamiliar situation, I want to hear what the worst case scenario might be.  Asking "what's the worst that could happen" is part of what's needed for making an informed decision. 
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 03:56:38 PM
As an aside, I believe you're making the mistake I see time and again from people in the NY/NJ area, which is lumping doctors and government together when talking about "authorities." I get that your government has been excessively harsh in their approach, but that has nothing to do with following medical advice.
This is something the government and media are responsible for. Regular people don't understand epidemiology reports, all they know is what they hear from the government (who claims everything is science based) and the media as well as some doctors who send voice notes and claim 25% of their community will die from the pandemic.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 04:00:52 PM
The government and the media were never reliable sources of information. Blaming them merely exposes the accusers lack of understanding on the actual debate. Their opinion, then as in now, is completely irrelevant to the actual question at hand.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 04:06:03 PM
The government and the media were never reliable sources of information. Blaming them merely exposes the accusers lack of understanding on the actual debate. Their opinion, then as in now, is completely irrelevant to the actual question at hand.
That's the most feasible source of information for most people, as well as voice notes from dr doom & gloom who told his community that 25% of them would die.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 04:06:10 PM
As an aside, I believe you're making the mistake I see time and again from people in the NY/NJ area, which is lumping doctors and government together when talking about "authorities." I get that your government has been excessively harsh in their approach, but that has nothing to do with following medical advice.

You're partially right. I shouldn't be lumping together doctors and authorities. One of the most senior doctors in my community has been saying weeks ago that schools should be open. I was also told on Shabbos by a senior Hatzolah member that same doctor was of the opinion that seniors and vulnerable people should quarantine, while the rest of the community should mingle and acquire herd immunity. (As far as I understood this was at the point when the proverbial genie was already out).

And let me understand the position, at what point do you say life can return to normal? When a vaccine is out? Why would that vaccine provide any better immunity than the actual virus?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 14, 2020, 04:07:54 PM
This is something the government and media are responsible for. Regular people don't understand epidemiology reports, all they know is what they hear from the government (who claims everything is science based) and the media as well as some doctors who send voice notes and claim 25% of their community will die from the pandemic.

Why is it whenever someone tries to explain why we should be doing things differently, we blame the government and media for why we don't need to listen now? How can you make that argument and not feel ignorant? There's is no one on DDF who isn't better than that, and that excuse needs to go away.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 04:12:41 PM
That's how I understood what he originally said.

There is little point in this argument, but I am bored enough.
ֿ
He originally stated Doctors have a limited mandate of ורפא ירפא, which only includes healing people and therefore doctors don't have a mandate to scare people at all.

The second argument was that in this case the panic is unjustified and therefore unecessailry dangerous, hence even if they weren't constrained by the boundaries of ורפא ירפא, it would be wrong of them to sow panic.

My answers still stand to both arguments.

1)
That has nothing to do with the Gemara you quoted. Doctors needed permission to act as a שליח and heal as a representative of G-d, who is the only healer. There is no need for similar authorization to scare people.

It is the duty of anybody with knowledge of forthcoming danger to scare people and spread panic. Had our community leaders done so in March, many lives would have been spared.

2)
People said that in March too.
So it very well may be warranted.

That's the most feasible source of information for most people, as well as voice notes from dr doom & gloom who told his community that 25% of them would die.
Reminds me of a kid who was so bitter that his parents wronged him, that he decided he doesn't have to bother brushing his teeth.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 14, 2020, 04:13:04 PM
You're partially right. I shouldn't be lumping together doctors and authorities. One of the most senior doctors in my community has been saying weeks ago that schools should be open. I was also told on Shabbos by a senior Hatzolah member that same doctor was of the opinion that seniors and vulnerable people should quarantine, while the rest of the community should mingle and acquire herd immunity. (As far as I understood this was at the point when the proverbial genie was already out).

And let me understand the position, at what point do you say life can return to normal? When a vaccine is out? Why would that vaccine provide any better immunity than the actual virus?

A) That same doctor is also trying his hardest to make sure that the entire CH community essentially self-isolated together, with no outside visitors. That shows how important he thinks it is. And if that isolation isn't possible, other precautions need to be taken.

B) I don't know. And I'm tired of that not being an acceptable answer. That doesn't mean that all reason goes out the window. You sell life insurance precisely because there are things in life we don't know. That doesn't mean we do nothing. We take whatever steps we can to protect ourselves, our families, friends, communities, homes and businesses.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 04:13:42 PM
Why is it whenever someone tries to explain why we should be doing things differently, we blame the government and media for why we don't need to listen now? How can you make that argument and not feel ignorant? There's is no one on DDF who isn't better than that, and that excuse needs to go away.

We are living through what might be the most politicized pandemic in mankind's history. Even HIV/AIDS politics pale in comparison.

I happened to have heard Cuomo today. The arrogance was just boundless. I might come back later to post some details.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 04:14:15 PM
This is something the government and media are responsible for. Regular people don't understand epidemiology reports, all they know is what they hear from the government (who claims everything is science based) and the media as well as some doctors who send voice notes and claim 25% of their community will die from the pandemic.
Love it. Now we are blaming the expertsmedia and government that we aren't listening to the medical experts. As if that will give us some solace if in the end they are right
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 04:15:00 PM
Why is it whenever someone tries to explain why we should be doing things differently, we blame the government and media for why we don't need to listen now? How can you make that argument and not feel ignorant? There's is no one on DDF who isn't better than that, and that excuse needs to go away.
It is definitely the epitome of primal stupidity.
We are living through what might be the most politicized pandemic in mankind's history. Even HIV/AIDS politics pale in comparison.

I happened to have heard Cuomo today. The arrogance was just boundless. I might come back later to post some details.
It is deplorable, but totally irrelevant to the actual facts of the disease.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 04:20:04 PM
Can we take a pause and learn some שער הבטחון before we resume regular programming?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 04:25:36 PM
Can we take a pause and learn some שער הבטחון before we resume regular programming?
Sure. Let's start with you explaining how בטחון is relevant?

Even with maximal בטחון one has to act out of השתדלות with the exact same level of precaution as one would take with no בטחון at all. The only difference is belief & motive.

We know that everything that happens is for the best (at least according to most rishonim), but we also know that the 'best' often does not appear so, and is painful.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 04:26:07 PM
Can we take a pause and learn some שער הבטחון before we resume regular programming?
*GASP*
Let me check.......
Hmmmm, Nope. Doesnt seem to fit with out liberal theories.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 04:31:06 PM
*GASP*
Let me check.......
Hmmmm, Nope. Doesnt seem to fit with out liberal theories.
So somehow bitachon allows you to violate ונשמרתם מאד לנפשותיכם?
Or maybe you are just trying to use frumkeit to rationalize your preconceived notions
We suspend everything for ספק פיקוח נפש. Why don't we first learn שער הבטחון? I don't get how we are mechallel shabbos for safek pikuach nefesh, but we can't wear masks for it
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 04:33:10 PM
So somehow bitachon allows you to violate ונשמרתם מאד לנפשותיכם?
Or maybe you are just trying to use frumkeit to rationalize your preconceived notions
I didn't say that we should not be Mishtadel. Of course you need to while balancing with Bitachon.
I just get the sense that some on the other side also have preconceived notions
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 04:34:43 PM
masks make it difficult to breathe, you make it sound like wearing a mask is not without it's own problems.
Can you elaborate on this? I'm curious what you mean by this
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 04:35:03 PM
I didn't say that we should not be Mishtadel. Of course you need to while balancing with Bitachon.
I just get the sense that some on the other side also have preconceived notions
I'm sure some on the other side have preconceived notions. Why does that have anything to do with our behavior
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 04:43:14 PM
I'm sure some on the other side have preconceived notions. Why does that have anything to do with our behavior
Reminds me of a kid who was so bitter that his parents wronged him, that he decided he doesn't have to bother brushing his teeth.
I didn't say that we should not be Mishtadel. Of course you need to while balancing with Bitachon.
I just get the sense that some on the other side also have preconceived notions
Bitchaon isnít balanced with hishtadlus. They arenít contradictory and you need 100% of both.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 04:43:45 PM
I'm sure some on the other side have preconceived notions. Why does that have anything to do with our behavior
After learning about Bitachon you should not get anxious. This will allow you to think through precautions logically instead of emotionally.

This does not necessarily need to have any impact on our behavior.
 I wholeheartedly agree that we should all be wearing masks where appropriate. However I've seen people driving alone in their cars while wearing masks. How do you explain that?

As a Baal Bitachon you are more qualified to decide which precautions check out medically.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 04:44:04 PM
Bitchaon isnít balanced with hishtadlus. They arenít contradictory and you need 100% of both.
+1
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 14, 2020, 04:48:23 PM
After learning about Bitachon you should not get anxious. This will allow you to think through precautions logically instead of emotionally.

This does not necessarily need to have any impact on our behavior.
 I wholeheartedly agree that we should all be wearing masks where appropriate. However I've seen people driving alone in their cars while wearing masks. How do you explain that?

As a Baal Bitachon you are more qualified to decide which precautions check out medically.
Well said
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 14, 2020, 04:53:32 PM
After learning about Bitachon you should not get anxious. This will allow you to think through precautions logically instead of emotionally.
Agreed - that's the main premise of shaar habitachon
Quote
This does not necessarily need to have any impact on our behavior.
Agreed
Quote
I wholeheartedly agree that we should all be wearing masks where appropriate. However I've seen people driving alone in their cars while wearing masks. How do you explain that?
Stupidity. When I expressed this to my wife yesterday, she said that people just put it on when walking to their car and then forget to take it off. I'm skeptical.
Quote
As a Baal Bitachon you are more qualified to decide which precautions check out medically.
Agreed
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 05:33:52 PM
So somehow bitachon allows you to violate ונשמרתם מאד לנפשותיכם?
Or maybe you are just trying to use frumkeit to rationalize your preconceived notions
We suspend everything for ספק פיקוח נפש. Why don't we first learn שער הבטחון? I don't get how we are mechallel shabbos for safek pikuach nefesh, but we can't wear masks for it

Still waiting for an answer to my question, in order to understand the ספק פיקוח נפש.

My immediate family and almost anyone I know in my community had the virus and recovered. Who do you suggest we protect from whom?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 05:39:24 PM
Agreed - that's the main premise of shaar habitachonAgreedStupidity. When I expressed this to my wife yesterday, she said that people just put it on when walking to their car and then forget to take it off. I'm skeptical.Agreed
Terrific!!! Happy we agree.
It seems like many of the arguments are about stupid/ not thinking people. If so, why bother?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 05:40:35 PM
Still waiting for an answer to my question, in order to understand the ספק פיקוח נפש.

People dont see it as safek pikuach nefesh. And arrogance.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 05:44:16 PM
People dont see it as safek pikuach nefesh. And arrogance.
Not seeing it as a safek pikuach nefesh is considered arrogance?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: gozalim on June 14, 2020, 05:46:29 PM
My immediate family and almost anyone I know in my community had the virus and recovered. Who do you suggest we protect from whom?
Let me give you an example from our community:
Protect who?
RCSDBL has been locked up at home since after Purim. BH feeling well. this week he was able to leave home for the 1st time for an outdoor simcha. don't you think he'd LOVE to visit his beloved 770? (וכהנה כו"כ לכאורה)

from who?
according to the guidance of our "society", he should be able to. UNTIL next week when the broader Lubavitch community has every intention of ignoring the request against visiting (because: "it's over already/c'mon/it's just me/the vulnerable are locked up/really?" take your pick)

or from:
Indoor weddings with OOT guests. 2 a night.

Or:
bochurim coming back to yeshivos (as they perhaps should) from communities that don't have the (earned-in-blood) herd immunity that we do. Is someone guiding them on the proper precautions so they don't bring in a 2nd wave? is there any accountability at all? or איש הישר בעיניו יעשה?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 05:51:10 PM
Let me give you an example from our community:
Protect who?
RCSDBL has been locked up at home since after Purim. BH feeling well. this week he was able to leave home for the 1st time for an outdoor simcha. don't you think he'd LOVE to visit his beloved 770? (וכהנה כו"כ לכאורה)
His brother has been locked up for months too. He had no symptoms. This past Shabbos he had Yahrzeit and sat together with me at the farbrengen where we heard what I described above from a senior Hatzolah member.

Quote
from who?
according to the guidance of our "society", he should be able to. UNTIL next week when the broader Lubavitch community has every intention of ignoring the request against visiting (because: "it's over already/c'mon/it's just me/the vulnerable are locked up/really?" take your pick)

or from:
Indoor weddings with OOT guests. 2 a night.

Or:
bochurim coming back to yeshivos (as they perhaps should) from communities that don't have the (earned-in-blood) herd immunity that we do. Is someone guiding them on the proper precautions so they don't bring in a 2nd wave? is there any accountability at all? or איש הישר בעיניו יעשה?

How will my wearing a mask make any difference in those scenarios?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: gozalim on June 14, 2020, 06:01:34 PM
His brother has been locked up for months too. He had no symptoms. This past Shabbos he had Yahrzeit and sat together with me at the farbrengen where we heard what I described above from a senior Hatzolah member.
which is why I am advocating that when those senior hatzalah people/doctors give guidance we should listen, not pick and choose the parts we like (everyone is safe) and discard the parts we don't like (continue SD measures, no kiddushim in shul, continue to prefer outdoor events, get a handle on indoor weddings/no visitors/etc.)

My other point is: herd immunity isn't zero. there are some (few), vulnerable victims, some (few, outside) sources of infection, and some (few) un-immune local carriers (me). it would do us well to maintain some small degree of precautions, whatever our local experts are suggesting (they've been wrong. אתה צודק. please אל תהיה צודק תהיה חכם). I don't know about you, but I lost enough relatives this year.

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 14, 2020, 06:59:12 PM
Can you elaborate on this? I'm curious what you mean by this
I as well as many other (including @ExGingi) find it very uncomfortable to wear a mask. I wear a mask when it's mandated and have no issue with a thought out decision based on facts (not cuomo or murphys mood) that masks are necessary. I take issue with those who say some form of "just wear a mask" or "it's not a big deal", because to many people it's incredibly uncomfortable.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 07:01:08 PM

How will my wearing a mask make any difference in those scenarios?

Seeing you wearing a mask will show the wedding guests, bochurim, etc, that it's expected in this community, and make it more likely that they'll reciprocate.

Even if it's not necessary for you personally, since you've been infected recently enough to (probably) still have immunity. 
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 07:11:28 PM

 I wholeheartedly agree that we should all be wearing masks where appropriate. However I've seen people driving alone in their cars while wearing masks. How do you explain that?

I noticed our mailman does that.  He probably gets in and out of the van so often that it's easier to just keep it on all day.

Also, it's probably safer to leave it on.  When we inhale, the oxygen gets through the mask, while presumably the viral particles stay on the outside.  So after breathing for a while, the outside of the mask should be considered infected.  Removing and touching it repeatedly would just spread those particles onto other surfaces, and it's better to leave it on and take it off only when you get somewhere where you can immediately wash your hands afterwards.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 07:15:46 PM
Seeing you wearing a mask will show the wedding guests, bochurim, etc, that it's expected in this community, and make it more likely that they'll reciprocate.
Sounds so idyllic, but unfortunately it's quite disconnected from reality.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 07:17:57 PM
Sounds so idyllic, but unfortunately it's quite disconnected from reality.
Make it real.  Or at least, start.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: gozalim on June 14, 2020, 07:18:09 PM
Sounds so idyllic, but unfortunately it's quite disconnected from reality.
not quite.
I wear a mask also to protect myself. I practically need to excuse myself for wearing it
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 07:25:19 PM

Even if it's not necessary for you personally, since you've been infected recently enough to (probably) still have immunity.

Here you go insinuating stuff. This virus has been around for at least 7 months at this point now and there has not been a single confirmed reinfection. Why do you talk like that?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 07:26:19 PM
I as well as many other (including @ExGingi) find it very uncomfortable to wear a mask. I wear a mask when it's mandated and have no issue with a thought out decision based on facts (not cuomo or murphys mood) that masks are necessary. I take issue with those who say some form of "just wear a mask" or "it's not a big deal", because to many people it's incredibly uncomfortable.
I feel for you, I really do.  I had to wear a mask for a while, a few years back, due to the medical condition of a family member, and the only reason I didn't complain was because I was very much aware that my carelessness could transmit a fatal infection to someone else.  But I never really got used to it, and wouldn't say "it's not a big deal."

Maybe if you post on the Masks (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=115316.0) thread others might have experience with various masks available today. 
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 07:30:57 PM
Here you go insinuating stuff. This virus has been around for at least 7 months at this point now and there has not been a single confirmed reinfection. Why do you talk like that?
This is from June 8, and things change so quickly that it might no longer be true, but here it is anyway:

Dr Bauchner:Are most people developing IgG and IgM antibodies?

Dr Fauci:They are, but the titers really, really vary. I have examples of people who clearly were infected who are antibody negative. They probably have such a low titer of antibody that it’s below the level of the cutoff. And then there are others that have very robust antibody responses. It isn’t a uniformly robust antibody response, which may be a reason why, when you look at the history of the common coronaviruses that cause the common cold, the reports in the literature are that the durability of immunity that’s protective ranges from 3 to 6 months to almost always less than a year. That’s not a lot of durability of protection. It may be completely different with this coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2]. It may be that people induce a response that’s quite durable. But if it acts like common coronaviruses, it likely is not going to be a very long duration of immunity.

source:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2767208
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 07:31:51 PM
not quite.
I wear a mask also to protect myself. I practically need to excuse myself for wearing it
At what point, if ever, will you stop wearing a mask?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: gozalim on June 14, 2020, 07:38:38 PM
At what point, if ever, will you stop wearing a mask?
In indoor settings? where others aren't all immune? probably once there's a vaccine...

Unless our local professionals have some different guidance
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 07:39:47 PM
This is from June 8, and things change so quickly that it might no longer be true, but here it is anyway:

Dr Bauchner:Are most people developing IgG and IgM antibodies?

Dr Fauci:They are, but the titers really, really vary. I have examples of people who clearly were infected who are antibody negative. They probably have such a low titer of antibody that itís below the level of the cutoff. And then there are others that have very robust antibody responses. It isnít a uniformly robust antibody response, which may be a reason why, when you look at the history of the common coronaviruses that cause the common cold, the reports in the literature are that the durability of immunity thatís protective ranges from 3 to 6 months to almost always less than a year. Thatís not a lot of durability of protection. It may be completely different with this coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2]. It may be that people induce a response thatís quite durable. But if it acts like common coronaviruses, it likely is not going to be a very long duration of immunity.

source:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2767208
You didnít address the point that I made though.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 07:43:31 PM
In indoor settings? where others aren't all immune? probably once there's a vaccine...

For some reason, unless this country goes the Singapore route (which might be not so far fetched, I heard a news story last week that the DOT will be providing millions of masks to airlines and commuter rail operators), you might be one of the last ones wearing a mask.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 14, 2020, 07:46:21 PM
You didnít address the point that I made though.
Personally, I wonder about one point- if the ďprior immunityĒ that has been theorized is indeed a fact, and indeed comes from exposure to other corona viruses (as the studies you have posted a couple of times seem to suggest), doesn't that mean that those people who were exposed to COVID-19 and didnít get infected (due to this immunity) are likely to become susceptible to infection again once the immunity to the previous coronavirus wears off EVEN if they were indeed previously (temporarily) immune?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 14, 2020, 07:46:58 PM
For some reason, unless this country goes the Singapore route (which might be not so far fetched, I heard a news story last week that the DOT will be providing millions of masks to airlines and commuter rail operators), you might be one of the last ones wearing a mask.
You mean in CH or America?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 07:50:33 PM
Personally, I wonder about one point- if the ďprior immunityĒ that has been theorized is indeed a fact, and indeed comes from exposure to other corona viruses (as the studies you have posted a couple of times seem to suggest), doesn't that mean that those people who were exposed to COVID-19 and didnít get infected (due to this immunity) are likely to become susceptible to infection again once the immunity to the previous coronavirus wears off EVEN if they were indeed previously (temporarily) immune?
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1.full.pdf

This study ďmayĒ show that immunity which stems from T cells last a long time.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 07:51:33 PM
For some reason, unless this country goes the Singapore route (which might be not so far fetched, I heard a news story last week that the DOT will be providing millions of masks to airlines and commuter rail operators), you might be one of the last ones wearing a mask.
100% mask compliance in my backyard minyan.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 08:02:40 PM
100% mask compliance in my backyard minyan.
For how much longer? Until there's a vaccine?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 08:11:05 PM
You didnít address the point that I made though.
Sorry, I may not have understood.
I thought you were asking why I said that someone who's had covid recently "probably" still has immunity, rather than definitely has immunity.
My answer was that we can't be certain how long immunity lasts for this coronavirus, and it might be less than a year.

If I misunderstood your point, please rephrase and I'll try to respond.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 08:21:07 PM
For how much longer? Until there's a vaccine?
Low cost/high benefit.
Why stop as long as the virus is still holding its own? If cases were to go close to nil, we'd stop I'm sure.
We had one attendee coming who caught COVID recently and recovered.

We do have anti-maskers boycotting, you'll never please everyone. Interestingly, they haven't made their own minyan.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: gozalim on June 14, 2020, 08:24:10 PM
For how much longer? Until there's a vaccine?
in CLE why wouldn't they? Dan is the outlier with immunity who may get an exemption, the rest of them are (rightly) quaking in their boots.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 08:29:31 PM
in CLE why wouldn't they? Dan is the outlier with immunity who may get an exemption, the rest of them are (rightly) quaking in their boots.

I am not disagreeing with you here. @Dan decided to interject so I asked him. I honestly think Crown Heights, Williamsburg and Boro Park, Monsey and KJ (and possibly Lakewood, IDK) are in a very different situation than the rest of the country and should be treated as such.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 08:35:42 PM
Personally, I wonder about one point- if the ďprior immunityĒ that has been theorized is indeed a fact, and indeed comes from exposure to other corona viruses (as the studies you have posted a couple of times seem to suggest), doesn't that mean that those people who were exposed to COVID-19 and didnít get infected (due to this immunity) are likely to become susceptible to infection again once the immunity to the previous coronavirus wears off EVEN if they were indeed previously (temporarily) immune?
I think so.  I had a similar thought when I read that Fauci quote:

If immunity lasts 3-12 months, the people who first lose immunity and become susceptible to re-infection should be among those who had been infected earliest. 

Hopefully, we get insight about re-infections from China before we're faced with this possibility ourselves.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 08:42:15 PM
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1.full.pdf

This study ďmayĒ show that immunity which stems from T cells last a long time.

Okay, I have only a vague memory of learning about T cells in my introductory biology course, so this article may be overwhelming, but there have been several mentions of T cells here recently, so I'll see if I can figure this out.  Might take a few days.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 08:47:53 PM
We do have anti-maskers boycotting, you'll never please everyone. Interestingly, they haven't made their own minyan.

Why would they make their own minyan? What would they oppose then (or alternatively, at that point they'll be opposing something else and will have to boycott for another reason, until they splinter into such small groups that there will be no thinking of a remote possibility of a minyan).

Here's the (NYC area communities) problem the way I see it: We had three distinct phases, the early spread, at which point some (insufficient) measures were put in place (I remember asking who is going to be the פרשנדתא after the 500 capacity limit is reached). The wildfire spreading stage (was virtually uncontrollable once it reached that) we suffered painful losses, and went into lock down. The curve turning and recovery phase - at this point we had measures that might have been appropriate in earlier stages put in place, and kept there for waaay too long, rather than trying to return to normal with reasonable measures.

I am sure that if Yeshivos, schools and shuls were permitted to open shortly after Pesach while requiring masks and maintaining some distancing and other reasonable restrictions, we would have seen much higher compliance lasting for long.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 08:49:15 PM
I think so.  I had a similar thought when I read that Fauci quote:

If immunity lasts 3-12 months, the people who first lose immunity and become susceptible to re-infection should be among those who had been infected earliest. 

Hopefully, we get insight about re-infections from China before we're faced with this possibility ourselves.
3-12 months-the virus has been around for 8 months and no reinfections.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 08:50:19 PM
3-12 months-the virus has been around for 8 months and no reinfections.
Stop confusing us....
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 08:56:09 PM
Stop confusing us....
My point is that if something has been around for 8 months and there isnít a single report of a reinfection itís a little ridiculous to say that immunity may only last for 3 months.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 09:01:16 PM
My point is that if something has been around for 8 months and there isnít a single report of a reinfection itís a little ridiculous to say that immunity may only last for 3 months.
It's been widespread in the US for 8 months? Cool story.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 09:04:23 PM
3-12 months-the virus has been around for 8 months and no reinfections.

That's great!  I'm overjoyed! Halevai veiter!

What Fauci was saying is that we have no way to predict how long immunity to this virus will last.  Perhaps the answer is - It will last a lifetime.  We have to wait and see.  But if we want to take a more educated guess, we should look at similar viruses, and for those viruses, immunity starts to wane after 3-12 months.

That does not mean that everyone gets re-infected 3 months after their first infection!  Re-infections are still rare, because they require both a decrease in immunity and an increase in exposure to the virus.  And there's a wide range in how individuals respond. 

IIRC, the article that we discussed a few weeks ago found that something like 15% of people who were diagnosed with a coronavirus infection had a second infection within a year.  (This was not covid, it was the other coronaviruses that cause milder cold symptoms.)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 09:08:12 PM
It's been widespread in the US for 8 months? Cool story.
Do you just like attacking me without even reading what I said. Where did I say anything about it being specifically in the US?

The virus has been around the world for the last 8 months. I would think someone like you that does lots of traveling would know that there are other places but the US
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 09:11:09 PM
That's great!  I'm overjoyed! Halevai veiter!

What Fauci was saying is that we have no way to predict how long immunity to this virus will last.  Perhaps the answer is - It will last a lifetime.  We have to wait and see.  But if we want to take a more educated guess, we should look at similar viruses, and for those viruses, immunity starts to wane after 3-12 months.

That does not mean that everyone gets re-infected 3 months after their first infection!  Re-infections are still rare, because they require both a decrease in immunity and an increase in exposure to the virus.  And there's a wide range in how individuals respond. 

IIRC, the article that we discussed a few weeks ago found that something like 15% of people who were diagnosed with a coronavirus infection had a second infection within a year.  (This was not covid, it was the other coronaviruses that cause milder cold symptoms.)
You should take a look at the study I posted because it showed that people who had SARS had T cells which provided immunity to SARS-COV-2. Maybe this virus also produces the same type of immunity. My only point is that itís more likely then not at this point that immunity lasts longer then some people were worried about.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 09:23:21 PM
Do you just like attacking me without even reading what I said. Where did I say anything about it being specifically in the US?

The virus has been around the world for the last 8 months. I would think someone like you that does lots of traveling would know that there are other places but the US
Aha. So now we are believing what China has to say.
Just wanted to make sure we're on the same page.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 09:38:33 PM
You should take a look at the study I posted because it showed that people who had SARS had T cells which provided immunity to SARS-COV-2. Maybe this virus also produces the same type of immunity. My only point is that itís more likely then not at this point that immunity lasts longer then some people were worried about.
Everybody hopes immunity lasts longer. 

These are the choices I see for our current behavior and the future:

A. We don't worry, be happy.  No one wears masks.
B. We do worry, a little.  We all wear masks.

Since we can't predict whether immunity will be long or short, we should opt for B.  We'll miss out on the Magnificent, but it's more important to avoid the Horror. 
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 09:41:12 PM
Not seeing it as a safek pikuach nefesh is considered arrogance?
Not at all. I have friends (BP Flatbush) who had symptoms yet complained that they were so bored bc all they were allowed to do was shop all day!
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 14, 2020, 09:41:28 PM
Everybody hopes immunity lasts longer. 

These are the choices I see for our current behavior and the future:

A. We don't worry, be happy.  No one wears masks.
  • Immunity is long lived.  No one ever gets sick again. Magnificent!  ;D
  • Immunity is short lived.  Many people are taken by surprise and get seriously ill. Horrors!  :(
B. We do worry, a little.  We all wear masks.
  • Immunity is long lived. Nobody gets sick.  We feel like absolute dorks for having worn masks. ::)
  • Immunity is short lived.  Few people are taken by surprise, and only a few get sick. Sad. :(

Since we can't predict whether immunity will be long or short, we should opt for B.  We'll miss out on the Magnificent, but it's more important to avoid the Horror.

What about if immunity is short lived but the serious illness and mortality rates are significantly lower than before?

Don't forget, while the medical establishment still knows close to nothing about the spread and infection rates, or why certain people get certain symptoms while others get none (or other symptoms) they have definitely learned how to care for the ill.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yungermanchik on June 14, 2020, 09:42:28 PM
Everybody hopes immunity lasts longer. 

These are the choices I see for our current behavior and the future:

A. We don't worry, be happy.  No one wears masks.
  • Immunity is long lived.  No one ever gets sick again. Magnificent!  ;D
  • Immunity is short lived.  Many people are taken by surprise and get seriously ill. Horrors!  :(
B. We do worry, a little.  We all wear masks.
  • Immunity is long lived. Nobody gets sick.  We feel like absolute dorks for having worn masks. ::)
  • Immunity is short lived.  Few people are taken by surprise, and only a few get sick. Sad. :(

Since we can't predict whether immunity will be long or short, we should opt for B.  We'll miss out on the Magnificent, but it's more important to avoid the Horror. 
I really don't get what you're saying. Even if immunity is "short-lived", by your own admission, it's not less than 3 months. So, for the 3 hottest months of the year, why should those with antibodies wear masks?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 09:43:12 PM
Aha. So now we are believing what China has to say.
Just wanted to make sure we're on the same page.
I'll grant you that Chinese politicians hid many details of the pandemic.  But I think answers to the big questions, like reinfections, will be shared.  Much of what is learned is communicated directly between individual scientists, who have contacts and experience in both countries.  Note that the authors of that article on masks were almost all Chinese or Chinese-Americans.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 09:44:05 PM
For how much longer? Until there's a vaccine?
Ha!!!! Do you think a vaccine will change anything? Let us learn from the great talk show heads.... There is always something to complain about....
Wait until the Vaccicne is released and we are going to be urged to take full precautions bc idk maybe not enough people are vaccinated? Or who said this vaccine works when mass produced? Or well we've been wearing mask for months so why stop now?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 09:45:43 PM
I'll grant you that Chinese politicians hid many details of the pandemic.  But I think answers to the big questions, like reinfections, will be shared.  Much of what is learned is communicated directly between individual scientists, who have contacts and experience in both countries.  Note that the authors of that article on masks were almost all Chinese or Chinese-Americans.
Do we trust the Chinese at all.... speak to businessmen who work with them.... lying is very much ingrained in their nature and culture from what I hear.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 09:47:08 PM
Ha!!!! Do you think a vaccine will change anything? Let us learn from the great talk show heads.... There is always something to complain about....
Wait until the Vaccicne is released and we are going to be urged to take full precautions bc idk maybe not enough people are vaccinated? Or who said this vaccine works when mass produced? Or well we've been wearing mask for months so why stop now?
NYT has already posted an article that suggested that trump will push a vaccine through to try and win the election even if it is unsafe. One of the most dangerous pieces Iíve ever seen written anywhere.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/opinion/trump-coronavirus-vaccine.html
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 10:10:48 PM
Do you just like attacking me without even reading what I said. Where did I say anything about it being specifically in the US?

The virus has been around the world for the last 8 months. I would think someone like you that does lots of traveling would know that there are other places but the US
Aha. So now we are believing what China has to say.
Just wanted to make sure we're on the same page.
So, shall I put you down for "just when it's convenient?"
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 10:11:25 PM
I really don't get what you're saying. Even if immunity is "short-lived", by your own admission, it's not less than 3 months. So, for the 3 hottest months of the year, why should those with antibodies wear masks?

We can't be sure how long immunity to the COVID virus lasts.  Here's one way we can find out:  We take a group of people who were all infected around Purim, and once a month we inject them with coronavirus.  We do this for 3 months, 4 months, 8 months, 2 years... as long as it takes to find someone who gets sick a second time.  I've posted earlier (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116555.150) on the ethical problems of doing an experiment like this.

The alternative we have is to simply wait... and see how long it takes for re-infections to be reported.  It might be never!  It's possible that immunity is lifelong.  But since we don't know, we have to continue to be careful, at last until a vaccine or a definitively effective treatment is developed.

The other alternative is to look for insight in the behavior of other coronaviruses.  For other coronaviruses, immunity may last 3-12 months, at least in some individuals.  From what we've seen so far, you are right:  It looks like it does last at least 8 months.  But remember, many of the people who were initially infected 8 months ago in China are continuing to SD and wear masks.  So the lack of reinfection may be partly due to continued immunity, and partly due to their protecting themselves from contact with the virus.

Re: the summer.  There's no reason to think that summer temperatures will stop the virus.  Covid was spreading in Florida during the winter/spring when temperatures were pleasantly warm.  There have been peaks of cases reported in Florida in the last few days, when temperatures were close to 90.  It's true that the virus seems to disintegrate faster in the heat... but so do humans.  We spend much of our summer days indoors, with cool air conditioning, so even if feel we can SD outdoors and remove the mask, we still should use it when near others or  indoors around others who might potentially be infected.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 10:17:31 PM
We can't be sure how long immunity to the COVID virus lasts.  Here's one way we can find out:  We take a group of people who were all infected around Purim, and once a month we inject them with coronavirus.  We do this for 3 months, 4 months, 8 months, 2 years... as long as it takes to find someone who gets sick a second time.  I've posted earlier (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116555.150) on the ethical problems of doing an experiment like this.
Isn't is also possible that each time you inject them with covid that it will act as a booster shot so their body will keep remembering how to fight it?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 10:18:53 PM
NYT has already posted an article that suggested that trump will push a vaccine through to try and win the election even if it is unsafe. One of the most dangerous pieces Iíve ever seen written anywhere.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/opinion/trump-coronavirus-vaccine.html
If I saw such a headline from Forbes or MSN I would assume it's a AI generated clickbait title.
This, is certified insanety.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 10:19:02 PM
What about if immunity is short lived but the serious illness and mortality rates are significantly lower than before?
Obviously that would be great.   We should hope for the best, but plan for the worst.


Don't forget, while the medical establishment still knows close to nothing about the spread and infection rates, or why certain people get certain symptoms while others get none (or other symptoms) they have definitely learned how to care for the ill.
I would say they have learned how to better care for the ill.  I don't think any doctor would say "Don't worry about getting COVID, we know exactly how to cure it."
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yungermanchik on June 14, 2020, 10:20:50 PM
We can't be sure how long immunity to the COVID virus lasts.  Here's one way we can find out:  We take a group of people who were all infected around Purim, and once a month we inject them with coronavirus.  We do this for 3 months, 4 months, 8 months, 2 years... as long as it takes to find someone who gets sick a second time.  I've posted earlier (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116555.150) on the ethical problems of doing an experiment like this.

The alternative we have is to simply wait... and see how long it takes for re-infections to be reported.  It might be never!  It's possible that immunity is lifelong.  But since we don't know, we have to continue to be careful, at last until a vaccine or a definitively effective treatment is developed.

The other alternative is to look for insight in the behavior of other coronaviruses.  For other coronaviruses, immunity may last 3-12 months, at least in some individuals.  From what we've seen so far, you are right:  It looks like it does last at least 8 months.  But remember, many of the people who were initially infected 8 months ago in China are continuing to SD and wear masks.  So the lack of reinfection may be partly due to continued immunity, and partly due to their protecting themselves from contact with the virus.

Re: the summer.  There's no reason to think that summer temperatures will stop the virus.  Covid was spreading in Florida during the winter/spring when temperatures were pleasantly warm.  There have been peaks of cases reported in Florida in the last few days, when temperatures were close to 90.  It's true that the virus seems to disintegrate faster in the heat... but so do humans.  We spend much of our summer days indoors, with cool air conditioning, so even if feel we can SD outdoors and remove the mask, we still should use it when near others or  indoors around others who might potentially be infected.
When I mentioned the hottest months of the year, I was just saying the downside of wearing masks.
It would seem at this point, that the risk of being reinfected (at least, within such a short time) is extremely low, and within the realm of normal life risks, such as crossing the street and operating a vehicle or heavy machinery. Not to say it is impossible, but such risks are beyond the reach of safek pikuach nefesh and are a part of living life.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 10:21:07 PM
Isn't is also possible that each time you inject them with covid that it will act as a booster shot so their body will keep remembering how to fight it?
I was just typing out the same question lol. +1

Since this virus is so prevalent and contagious what are the chances that someone with antibodies (and taking advantage of em!) will be susceptible to reinfection?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 10:23:13 PM
Isn't is also possible that each time you inject them with covid that it will act as a booster shot so their body will keep remembering how to fight it?
:) I was thinking about that as I wrote it...  Science is hard!
I think what we'd have to do is use several groups of people.  Some get injected only after 3 months, some only after 6 months, etc.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: etech0 on June 14, 2020, 10:23:47 PM
:) I was thinking about that as I wrote it...  Science is hard!
I think what we'd have to do is use several groups of people.  Some get injected only after 3 months, some only after 6 months, etc.
Where are you finding these volunteers?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 10:27:10 PM
When I mentioned the hottest months of the year, I was just saying the downside of wearing masks.
It would seem at this point, that the risk of being reinfected (at least, within such a short time) is extremely low, and within the realm of normal life risks, such as crossing the street and operating a vehicle or heavy machinery. Not to say it is impossible, but such risks are beyond the reach of safek pikuach nefesh and are a part of living life.
Assuming that what you are saying is medically accurate such a policy would be impossible as once people relax it will he harder for 'rule makers' to start enforcing again later.
@ExGingi said something similar that had NY allowed a rational reopening people would have complied instead of throwing out everything.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 10:28:52 PM
Where are you finding these volunteers?
:) I was thinking about that as I wrote it...  Science is hard!
I think what we'd have to do is use several groups of people.  Some get injected only after 3 months, some only after 6 months, etc.
This question is not specifically in your theoretical study but very much in the real world with those with antibodies getting exposed/ injected with the virus constantly
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 10:29:55 PM
@biobook you gotta slow down with your posts.... I was really impressed by your like to post ratio.... :)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 10:46:00 PM
When I mentioned the hottest months of the year, I was just saying the downside of wearing masks.
It would seem at this point, that the risk of being reinfected (at least, within such a short time) is extremely low, and within the realm of normal life risks, such as crossing the street and operating a vehicle or heavy machinery. Not to say it is impossible, but such risks are beyond the reach of safek pikuach nefesh and are a part of living life.

I agree that based on what we know so far, the risk of reinfection in the immediate future seems low.  That's why I wrote a few pages ago that someone who was recently infected "probably" has immunity. 

But what to do in the summer?  I think that mask wearing should be more prevalent that it apparently is in the NY/NJ communities, based on what people are saying here.  But certainly if someone finds that mask-wearing makes them overheated to the point of fainting in the street, they may not be able to wear it. 

I don't know where one draws the boundary between safek pikuach nefesh and a part of living life. We do cross streets, but only after looking both ways.  We do operate a vehicle, but only after fastening the seat belts.  I think masks belong in the same category - a safety feature that we hope will be unnecessary, but we use, just in case.   
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 10:48:05 PM
So, shall I put you down for "just when it's convenient?"
Whatever you want to because you donít seem to care about what I write anyways
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 14, 2020, 10:48:29 PM
Where are you finding these volunteers?
Did I see a raised hand?  ;)

It's theoretical.  In the earlier post I described why this would be difficult to do ethically.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 10:58:56 PM
Whatever you want to because you donít seem to care about what I write anyways
But I do, that's why I called out your contradiction which ruffled some feathers clearly. Whether you're going to admit it or deflect is another story.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 11:01:15 PM
Did I see a raised hand?  ;)

It's theoretical.  In the earlier post I described why this would be difficult to do ethically.

This question is not specifically in your theoretical study but very much in the real world with those with antibodies getting exposed/ injected with the virus constantly
?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 14, 2020, 11:04:18 PM
I can't keep up with all this. Can someone add a wiki?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 11:05:16 PM
I can't keep up with all this. Can someone add a wiki?

"This unprecedented fluid situation is evolving too rapidly"
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 11:10:07 PM
But I do, that's why I called out your contradiction which ruffled some feathers clearly. Whether you're going to admit it or deflect is another story.
Which contradiction?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 11:20:03 PM
Which contradiction?
IIRC you've discounted information coming from China before, which is a fair position to take given their cover-ups about the origin and everything else until late January, which is 5 months max.

Now you're waiving around 8 months of history as if you do trust early data from China and some mumbo jumbo about not reading what you wrote.

Do you just like attacking me without even reading what I said. Where did I say anything about it being specifically in the US?

The virus has been around the world for the last 8 months. I would think someone like you that does lots of traveling would know that there are other places but the US

Which one is it? Are we relying on their data? Or where do you get 8 months from?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 14, 2020, 11:26:56 PM
IIRC you've discounted information coming from China before, which is a fair position to take given their cover-ups about the origin and everything else until late January, which is 5 months max.

Now you're waiving around 8 months of history as if you do trust early data from China and some mumbo jumbo about not reading what you wrote.

Which one is it? Are we relying on their data? Or where do you get 8 months from?
I donít recall discounting info from China before. I think that the whole China covering up 40-50k deaths makes no sense based on the mortality rates weíve seen around the world. I donít see why at this point they would cover up news about reinfections.

China definitely did try and cover up some of the early info coming out about the virus for political reasons but I donít see how covering up something like this would provide any benefit.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 14, 2020, 11:29:38 PM
I donít recall discounting info from China before. I think that the whole China covering up 40-50k deaths makes no sense based on the mortality rates weíve seen around the world. I donít see why at this point they would cover up news about reinfections.

China definitely did try and cover up some of the early info coming out about the virus for political reasons but I donít see how covering up something like this would provide any benefit.
So they lied about the total deaths and they lied about early info, among other lies.
But we should believe that they would tell the world about reinfections from people who had it 8 months ago (3 months before they admitted this existed)?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 14, 2020, 11:30:46 PM

China definitely did try and cover up some of the early info coming out about the virus for political reasons but I donít see how covering up something like this would provide any benefit.
Try to have the mindset of a Communist govt...
They are still nervous about being blamed for the virus.
They are even more nervous that people will be scared to do business with them (wont want to travel there and you cant trust them without being there in person, lack of confidence in workforce).

The healthier they portray themselves the better off they are.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yungermanchik on June 14, 2020, 11:42:31 PM
I agree that based on what we know so far, the risk of reinfection in the immediate future seems low.  That's why I wrote a few pages ago that someone who was recently infected "probably" has immunity. 

But what to do in the summer?  I think that mask wearing should be more prevalent that it apparently is in the NY/NJ communities, based on what people are saying here.  But certainly if someone finds that mask-wearing makes them overheated to the point of fainting in the street, they may not be able to wear it. 

I don't know where one draws the boundary between safek pikuach nefesh and a part of living life. We do cross streets, but only after looking both ways.  We do operate a vehicle, but only after fastening the seat belts.  I think masks belong in the same category - a safety feature that we hope will be unnecessary, but we use, just in case.
First of all, if the risk of an immediate reinfection without any mask, is very low, why would it be different than driving a car with a seatbelt. Even with a seat belt, there is a possibility of mortal injury.
Second, why do you say "if someone finds that mask-wearing makes them overheated to the point of fainting in the street, they may not be able to wear it." Even if it's just causing a discomfort, it is not reasonable to expect for a far-fetched risk.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 15, 2020, 10:22:20 AM
First of all, if the risk of an immediate reinfection without any mask, is very low, why would it be different than driving a car with a seatbelt. Even with a seat belt, there is a possibility of mortal injury.
Second, why do you say "if someone finds that mask-wearing makes them overheated to the point of fainting in the street, they may not be able to wear it." Even if it's just causing a discomfort, it is not reasonable to expect for a far-fetched risk.
Many people find wearing a seatbelt uncomfortable, yet itís mandated by law every time you drive. How many deaths do you think are prevented each year by people wearing seatbelts?

Donít forget, you wearing a seatbelt wonít have an effect on anybody elseís life.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: username on June 15, 2020, 07:47:17 PM
Was there any uptick that the medical community is ascribing to the recent riots?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: gozalim on June 15, 2020, 07:52:28 PM
Was there any uptick that the medical community is ascribing to the recent riots?
Quote
City Hall confirmed that contact tracing workers hired by the city to trace the interactions of people infected with Covid-19, have been instructed not to ask anyone whoís tested positive for COVID-19 whether they recently attended a demonstration.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: username on June 15, 2020, 07:54:36 PM
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: username on June 15, 2020, 07:55:15 PM
And why wouldn't they ask?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 15, 2020, 07:55:36 PM
And why wouldn't they ask?
So they wonít get ascribed to the riots.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 15, 2020, 07:56:00 PM
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?
Not as of yet
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yelped on June 15, 2020, 07:59:01 PM

Which city is this? Shameful. What legitimate reason do they have for that?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 15, 2020, 08:00:10 PM
Which city is this?
Lol, do you have to ask?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 08:04:22 PM
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?
Wouldn't peaceful protesters be the major concern since that was/is what the overwhelming majority are?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: EliJelly on June 15, 2020, 08:17:25 PM
Which city is this?
Lol, do you have to ask?
כעלעם
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 08:40:16 PM
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?

Gozalim: City Hall confirmed that contact tracing workers hired by the city to trace the interactions of people infected with Covid-19, have been instructed not to ask anyone whoís tested positive for COVID-19 whether they recently attended a demonstration.

And why wouldn't they ask?
Good question!  Politicians, health professionals, and all of us would really like to know whether covid was spread by the protests, so the reason they're not asking is not because they don't want to know.

It's because People are not Google.  You don't just submit a question and automatically get a correct answer, especially when the question is about behavior that people might want to keep private.  And asking personal questions might make them leery about answering the questions you really need an answer to, which is known contacts to whom they may have transmitted covid.  Contact tracers' goal is to prevent future transmissions, not to research events in the past.   

Source and longer version:
https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 15, 2020, 08:55:29 PM
Gozalim: City Hall confirmed that contact tracing workers hired by the city to trace the interactions of people infected with Covid-19, have been instructed not to ask anyone whoís tested positive for COVID-19 whether they recently attended a demonstration.
Good question!  Politicians, health professionals, and all of us would really like to know whether covid was spread by the protests, so the reason they're not asking is not because they don't want to know.

It's because People are not Google.  You don't just submit a question and automatically get a correct answer, especially when the question is about behavior that people might want to keep private.  And asking personal questions might make them leery about answering the questions you really need an answer to, which is known contacts to whom they may have transmitted covid.  Contact tracers' goal is to prevent future transmissions, not to research events in the past.   

Source and longer version:
https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave

There are enough ways to ask roundabout questions and get the answer 99% accurately. Just ask Israeli pollsters how they manage with people that try to manipulate the polls. They've gotten very good at it.

We are living through what might be the most politicized pandemic in mankind's history. Even HIV/AIDS politics pale in comparison.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 08:56:54 PM
There are enough ways to ask roundabout questions and get the answer 99% accurately. Just ask Israeli pollsters how they manage with people that try to manipulate the polls. They've gotten very good at it.
Just ask the pollsters from the 2016 elections
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ari3 on June 15, 2020, 08:59:26 PM
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?
probably going to need at least a few more days for it to start showing up
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 09:01:27 PM
OK. So forget the medical community.
Are there any upticks that anyone is ascribing to the recent riots?
Who would dare ascribe it to rioting and risk the mobs wrath?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 09:06:08 PM
There are enough ways to ask roundabout questions and get the answer 99% accurately. Just ask Israeli pollsters how they manage with people that try to manipulate the polls. They've gotten very good at it.
Yes, but that's not the purpose of contact tracing.  It's not intended for political polling, or academic research.  It's a public health issue, part of the plan for preventing a second wave of infection. That important goal should not be jeopardized by our curiosity about the more narrow question of the role of protests.

This is a well-known issue - at least well known to social workers, psychologists, public health workers (any here on DDF?) who have had experience in working with people with syphillis or HIV or mental health issues or drug abuse, or victims of spousal abuse or child abuse.  Asking the direct question is often not an effective way to get the information you need.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 09:09:03 PM
Yes, but that's not the purpose of contact tracing.  It's not intended for political polling, or academic research.  It's a public health issue, part of the plan for preventing a second wave of infection. That important goal should not be jeopardized by our curiosity about the more narrow question of the role of protests.

This is a well-known issue - at least well known to social workers, psychologists, public health workers (any here on DDF?) who have had experience in working with people with syphillis or HIV or mental health issues or drug abuse, or victims of spousal abuse or child abuse.  Asking the direct question is often not an effective way to get the information you need.
Would knowing if an spread was caused by riots help with reopening plans? Theoretically you could say that bc of moving into phase 1 reopening didn't cause an uptick and anything was bc of riots not opening stores etc so we can safely move onto phase 2....
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yelped on June 15, 2020, 09:13:41 PM
Lol, do you have to ask?
NYC is the obvious candidate, but so are LA, Portland, Seattle, and San Francisco.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 15, 2020, 09:40:22 PM
Gozalim: City Hall confirmed that contact tracing workers hired by the city to trace the interactions of people infected with Covid-19, have been instructed not to ask anyone whoís tested positive for COVID-19 whether they recently attended a demonstration.
Good question!  Politicians, health professionals, and all of us would really like to know whether covid was spread by the protests, so the reason they're not asking is not because they don't want to know.

It's because People are not Google.  You don't just submit a question and automatically get a correct answer, especially when the question is about behavior that people might want to keep private.  And asking personal questions might make them leery about answering the questions you really need an answer to, which is known contacts to whom they may have transmitted covid.  Contact tracers' goal is to prevent future transmissions, not to research events in the past.   

Source and longer version:
https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave
Seriously. You have a lot of smart things to say, but isnít there a real public health interest in seeing if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus or not?

So you really believe that people will have their feelings hurt if they are asked if they attended a protest?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 09:42:07 PM
So you really believe that people will have their feelings hurt if they are asked if they attended a protest?
More like you won't get an answer.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 09:43:54 PM
Would knowing if an spread was caused by riots help with reopening plans? Theoretically you could say that bc of moving into phase 1 reopening didn't cause an uptick and anything was bc of riots not opening stores etc so we can safely move onto phase 2....
Sorry, I'm not sure I got this.  I think you're asking:

The riots occurred during phase 1, when stores were opened.  If there's an uptick in covid cases now, wouldn't we want to know whether the uptick was caused by the store openings or by the riots?  If it was caused by the store openings, we might want to close the stores again, but if it was caused by the riots, we could leave stores open and safely move into phase 2.

Yes, you have a point there. (If this was, in fact, your point.)  But when two things happen at the same time (store opening and riots), it is difficult to figure out which led to the result.  You could do this research, but it would probably take longer to get an answer than you'd want to wait, before moving to phase 2. 

Also, even if you wanted to figure this out, it wouldn't be comfortable to ask questions about this in the same interview in which you're doing the contact tracing.  This would be like a boy goes for a farher and the questions from the rebbe alternate with questions from the rebbetzin about shidduchim.  Different investigations need a different kind of interview.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 15, 2020, 09:44:13 PM
More like you won't get an answer.
So therefore it hurts to ask?

Do you really think that makes any sense. You donít have to defend every liberal out there. Itís really clear that de blasio is petrified of a spike being ascribed to the protests and therefore is doing this. He will probably blame the Jews again if there happens to be a spike.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 09:48:06 PM
So therefore it hurts to ask?

Do you really think that makes any sense. You donít have to defend every liberal out there.
Since when stating that most likely they won't answer is defending a liberal?   ::)
I have no issue with them asking.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 15, 2020, 09:49:54 PM
Since when stating that most likely they won't answer is defending a liberal?   ::)
I have no issue with them asking.
So I asked why does it hurt to ask and you answered that they most likely wonít get an answer.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: etech0 on June 15, 2020, 09:50:28 PM
Is anyone actually talking to these contact tracers vs just hanging up?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 09:56:01 PM
Seriously. You have a lot of smart things to say, but isnít there a real public health interest in seeing if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus or not?

So you really believe that people will have their feelings hurt if they are asked if they attended a protest?

A. It's not a matter of my belief, but the belief of decades of public health researchers who have interviewed people about issues like this.

B. It's not a matter of having their feelings hurt, but that people will give honest responses only if they trust the interrogator, and asking about protests may interfere with that trust.

C. Yes, it would be interesting to see if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus, but the riots and protests are not necessarily helpful in answering that question.  Unlike most gatherings, the protesters often didn't know each other or record each others' names, so impossible to know who was near whom. 

D. Incorporating research on viral spread in gatherings into the contact tracing research required for public health would just be a poor research technique.  If both are to be done, they should be in separate studies.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 09:57:26 PM
So I asked why does it hurt to ask and you answered that they most likely wonít get an answer.
Not what you asked.
So you really believe that people will have their feelings hurt if they are asked if they attended a protest?
More like you won't get an answer.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 15, 2020, 10:01:58 PM
A. It's not a matter of my belief, but the belief of decades of public health researchers who have interviewed people about issues like this.

B. It's not a matter of having their feelings hurt, but that people will give honest responses only if they trust the interrogator, and asking about protests may interfere with that trust.

C. Yes, it would be interesting to see if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus, but the riots and protests are not necessarily helpful in answering that question.  Unlike most gatherings, the protesters often didn't know each other or record each others' names, so impossible to know who was near whom. 

D. Incorporating research on viral spread in gatherings into the contact tracing research required for public health would just be a poor research technique.  If both are to be done, they should be in separate studies.
If the protests were spreading the viruses like crazy.. then wouldnít it be imperative to public health that they would be shut down?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 10:06:56 PM
Is anyone actually talking to these contact tracers vs just hanging up?
This is from the article I linked to above:
"Since the effort began, officials say most ó but not all ó people questioned by contact tracers have been cooperative. Some, however, have refused to volunteer any information about their close contacts."
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: gozalim on June 15, 2020, 10:15:41 PM
C. Yes, it would be interesting to see if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus, but the riots and protests are not necessarily helpful in answering that question.  Unlike most gatherings, the protesters often didn't know each other or record each others' names, so impossible to know who was near whom. 

how about public announcement: if you were at X protest on Y day at Z time, get yourself tested
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 10:17:51 PM
So I asked why does it hurt to ask and you answered that they most likely wonít get an answer.
Right.  It hurts to ask during the interview on contact tracing.  Because you won't get a useful answer about the protests, and it will hurt your chances for effective contact tracing.

If the protests were spreading the viruses like crazy.. then wouldnít it be imperative to public health that they would be shut down?
Yes.  There is not yet evidence that protests are spreading the virus like crazy.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: etech0 on June 15, 2020, 10:18:24 PM
Yes.  There is not yet evidence that protests are spreading the virus like crazy.
How will we find out if that is the case?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 10:19:46 PM
how about public announcement: if you were at X protest on Y day at Z time, get yourself tested
This is the kind of announcement that was done in Israel from the beginning, and may have contributed to the smaller spread there.

Here, Cuomo and DeBlasio have done something similar, though vaguer:  If you were at the protests at all, get yourself tested. 
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 10:23:12 PM
Right.  It hurts to ask during the interview on contact tracing.  Because you won't get a useful answer about the protests, and it will hurt your chances for effective contact tracing.
Yes.  There is not yet evidence that protests are spreading the virus like crazy.
Do any of these contact tracing initiatives in the USA work? Seems like the tracers are living on a cloud...

Here, Cuomo and DeBlasio have done something similar, though vaguer:  If you were at the protests at all, get yourself tested. 
DeBlasio announced today that although he was at protests and is feeling sick he wont test
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 10:23:44 PM
How will we find out if that is the case?
I would guess that we'd see a large uptick in cases, within two weeks of the protests.

But let me ask you a related question:

How could we find out whether large outdoor weddings contribute significantly to spread of the virus?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 10:25:15 PM
How could we find out whether large outdoor weddings contribute significantly to spread of the virus?
...or how about large indoor rallies?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 10:25:46 PM
Do any of these contact tracing initiatives in the USA work? Seems like the tracers are living on a cloud...

On what do you base your assertion?  Why do you suppose they wouldn't work?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: gozalim on June 15, 2020, 10:28:09 PM
Here, Cuomo and DeBlasio have done something similar, though vaguer:  If you were at the protests at all, get yourself tested. 
Link?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: etech0 on June 15, 2020, 10:28:55 PM
I would guess that we'd see a large uptick in cases, within two weeks of the protests.

But let me ask you a related question:

How could we find out whether large outdoor weddings contribute significantly to spread of the virus?
Another good question. If contact tracers or other people are trying to determine the answers to these questions they will need to compare data between who was at these events and who subsequently contracted the virus.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 10:29:46 PM
On what do you base your assertion?  Why do you suppose they wouldn't work?
Is anyone actually talking to these contact tracers vs just hanging up?
It doesnt seem like there is any apparatus which can contact trace enough cases to be effective and bc no way to force an actual quarantine.... there are no ' quarantine hotels' around here
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 10:30:47 PM
...or how about large indoor rallies?
Probably a larger sample size, for outdoor weddings than indoor rallies
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 10:31:04 PM
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 10:31:52 PM
Link?

https://time.com/5849797/protests-coronavirus-test/

With New York City poised to reopen after a more than two-month coronavirus shutdown, officials on Sunday lifted a curfew that was in place amid protests of police brutality and racial injustice. But they also urged that demonstrators be tested for COVID-19.

ďGet a test. Get a test,Ē New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told people who have been participating in rallies and marches in memory of George Floyd.

He said the state would open 15 testing sites dedicated to protesters so they can get results quickly.

ďI would act as if you were exposed, and I would tell people you are interacting with, assume I am positive for the virus,Ē Cuomo added.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 10:32:40 PM



C. Yes, it would be interesting to see if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus, but the riots and protests are not necessarily helpful in answering that question.  Unlike most gatherings, the protesters often didn't know each other or record each others' names, so impossible to know who was near whom. 


This is the exact point of all those Apple and Google initiatives that have been capturing headlines for months. Ha!
Israel did a good job thanks to cell phone tracking, rav kavya tracking, credit card tracking and the fact that israelis are scared of their govt.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 10:34:26 PM
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?
The only albeit minute possibility is if being outdoors with fresh air and a breeze really helps more then we think.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: etech0 on June 15, 2020, 10:35:34 PM
The only albeit minute possibility is if being outdoors with fresh air and a breeze really helps more then we think.
Or if we really do have herd immunity after all
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 15, 2020, 10:42:50 PM
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?
Uptick? Yes. Huge spike? Unlikely. Remember that for people to spread the virus they have to actually have the virus themselves currently. And the infection rate in NY is the lowest in the country right now.

Other places where the virus is still is in its initial spread and are having large gatherings are biological Bombs waiting to happen.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 10:45:32 PM
Uptick? Yes. Huge spike? Unlikely. Remember that for people to spread the virus they have to actually have the virus themselves currently. And the infection rate in NY is the lowest in the country right now.
An outrageous number would be 50% of the population has been infected in NY. How many millions does that leave?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 15, 2020, 10:48:24 PM
An outrageous number would be 50% of the population has been infected in NY. How many millions does that leave?
Currently the amount of people infected in NY is a very low number for a state with 19 million people. So the odds of lots of people at protests being positive and spreading the virus is not so likely. Where did I say herd immunity?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 10:58:37 PM
Currently the amount of people infected in NY is a very low number for a state with 19 million people. So the odds of lots of people at protests being positive and spreading the virus is not so likely. Where did I say herd immunity?
You didn't say herd immunity and I never said you did. My point is there are millions that have yet to be infected. Large gatherings IMHO will be feeding ground for them.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 15, 2020, 11:01:21 PM
You didn't say herd immunity and I never said you did. My point is there are millions that have yet to be infected. Large gatherings IMHO will be feeding ground for them.
And my point is that people have to have the virus to infect other people. And in NY itís not likely at this point that someone has the virus and doesnít know that they do.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: username on June 15, 2020, 11:03:47 PM
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?

I would not be surprised either way.
There seems to be so much about this virus that is not understood.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 11:04:10 PM
Another good question. If contact tracers or other people are trying to determine the answers to these questions they will need to compare data between who was at these events and who subsequently contracted the virus.


Right, and you can easily see what an enormous project that would be.
But the contact tracers are not trying to answer those general questions - Do big weddings spread covid? - but rather they're focusing on trying to stop the spread of the virus. 

Here's how they work.  Someone tests positive for the virus, and that info is sent to a tracer.  The tracer calls the patient, and asks them to remember the names and contact info for everyone they were near since 2 days before their symptoms started.  Then they contact those secondary sources, and tell them that they've been near someone who has covid, and that they should either isolate, quarantine, get tested, etc. 

This is a big enough job!  They're not focusing on answering general questions about how the virus spreads, though perhaps in the future the data they collect will be analyzed for that.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 11:06:17 PM
And my point is that people have to have the virus to infect other people. And in NY itís not likely at this point that someone has the virus and doesnít know that they do.
Are there millions getting tested every day to see if they have it?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 11:09:30 PM


Right, and you can easily see what an enormous project that would be.
But the contact tracers are not trying to answer those general questions - Do big weddings spread covid? - but rather they're focusing on trying to stop the spread of the virus. 

Here's how they work.  Someone tests positive for the virus, and that info is sent to a tracer.  The tracer calls the patient, and asks them to remember the names and contact info for everyone they were near since 2 days before their symptoms started.  Then they contact those secondary sources, and tell them that they've been near someone who has covid, and that they should either isolate, quarantine, get tested, etc. 

This is a big enough job!  They're not focusing on answering general questions about how the virus spreads, though perhaps in the future the data they collect will be analyzed for that.
You still didn't answer my questions:
1 how will amy of this help if there is no enforced quarantine which includes the patient and his household being in a complete bubble?

2 You admit that contact tracing is a big job. Is there any reasonable way that it can be deployed at a large enough scale, containing enough cases to be effective?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Eb228 on June 15, 2020, 11:14:13 PM
...or how about large indoor rallies?

Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?

Wow was someone desperate to bring Trump bashing to this thread
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 11:15:54 PM
Wow was someone desperate to bring Trump bashing to this thread
You owe him a thank you. He's just trying to unmask the koolaid
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 11:16:52 PM
Wow was someone desperate to bring Trump bashing to this thread
I have seen many protest with very few masks. That will be a breading ground. Indoor large gatherings will be worse. You don't move the goalposts!!!
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 11:18:09 PM
I have seen many protest with very few masks. That will be a breading ground. Indoor large gatherings will be worse. You don't move the goalposts!!!
A couple of rally's  are nothing compared to the scale of protests.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 15, 2020, 11:20:15 PM
A couple of rally's  are nothing compared to the scale of protests.
I agree 100%. Worse I mean easy to contact the virus in a closed situation as compared to outside.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 15, 2020, 11:22:09 PM
You still didn't answer my questions:
1 how will amy of this help if there is no enforced quarantine which includes the patient and his household being in a complete bubble?

2 You admit that contact tracing is a big job. Is there any reasonable way that it can be deployed at a large enough scale, containing enough cases to be effective?

Time will tell.  It has not been done before, and nobody knows whether or not it will work.  Stay tuned...
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 15, 2020, 11:29:59 PM
Time will tell.  It has not been done before, and nobody knows whether or not it will work.  Stay tuned...
I dont think we need time to tell.
The CDC admits that interview based tracing cant be scaled to effectiveness for the entire country and any survielince measures would require a change to the fourth amendment or some special circumstances loophole around it. Either way you would know when it happens.

After a bit of research I found this.
https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/10007-would-covid-19-digital-contact-tracing-programs

Most of the CDC, WHO etc statements are basically "posture gesticulating" like all those companies that emailed "were all in this together, etc"
Title: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Euclid on June 16, 2020, 12:29:35 AM
I dont think we need time to tell.
The CDC admits that interview based tracing cant be scaled to effectiveness for the entire country and any survielince measures would require a change to the fourth amendment or some special circumstances loophole around it. Either way you would know when it happens.

After a bit of research I found this.
https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/10007-would-covid-19-digital-contact-tracing-programs

Most of the CDC, WHO etc statements are basically "posture gesticulating" like all those companies that emailed "were all in this together, etc"
Based on the research I've done (a lot), roughly 90% of manual contact tracing is low hanging fruit, i.e. the infected either knows the location or the person; the problem is the other 10%. There's hope that the Google Apple Exposure Notification framework will free up the manual contact tracers to focus on the "hard" 10% which require in depth interviews; GAEN will allow the other 90% to be notified in a semi-automated fashion.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 16, 2020, 01:02:28 AM
Based on the research I've done (a lot), roughly 90% of manual contact tracing is low hanging fruit, i.e. the infected either knows the location or the person; the problem is the other 10%. There's hope that the Google Apple Exposure Notification framework will free up the manual contact tracers to focus on the "hard" 10% which require in depth interviews; GAEN will allow the other 90% to be notified in a semi-automated fashion.
Does all contact need tracing? For example everyone passed in a park trail or only those on a city sidewalk or only those in a large supermarket or only family members whom are sharing a house?

Assuming any and all contacts need to be informed, I would flip the numbers around. The patient may be able to list his cousin who stopped by his house but probably would be able to tick off everyone at his (outdoor) minyan.

Also as per 4th ammendment laws people would need to manually download an app and even then the frameworks is legally dubious.
Most people I know would never actually install this app either bc theh dont know about it or bc they are not concerned. This is before you factor in frum people without smartphones or unfiltered smartphones.

You would have a very small minority using the app.

To summarize: I dont understand the numbers and the Google apple framework will never work and Israeli style cell tracking is illegal.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Euclid on June 16, 2020, 01:33:04 AM

Does all contact need tracing? For example everyone passed in a park trail or only those on a city sidewalk or only those in a large supermarket or only family members whom are sharing a house?


Assuming any and all contacts need to be informed, I would flip the numbers around. The patient may be able to list his cousin who stopped by his house but probably wouldn't be able to tick off everyone at his (outdoor) minyan.

No, only people who have had an epidemiologically significant encounter will need to be notified. Based on current knowledge of COVID-19 this means >= 5 minutes at a distance of <=6 feet (these parameters are flexible based on the setting, e.g. outdoors vs. indoors). The bulk of such encounters are usually sussed out with minimal effort by the contact tracer, however it is time consuming to actually collate and inform all these people. The hope is that the GAEN framework will allow this part to be automated.


Also as per 4th amendment laws people would need to manually download an app and even then the frameworks is legally dubious.
Most people I know would never actually install this app either bc they dont know about it or bc they are not concerned. This is before you factor in frum people without smartphones or unfiltered smartphones.


You would have a very small minority using the app.


To summarize: I dont understand the numbers and the Google apple framework will never work and Israeli style cell tracking is illegal.

The GAEN framework specification was developed with privacy being the biggest and most important factor. It works completely differently than the Israeli model of location tracking; rather it operates by keeping a log (stored locally on the phone) of which phone (identified by a random ID) you were near for an epidemiologically significant encounter (this is done via Bluetooth Low Energy, so it has minimal power consumption). Google and Apple even specified that any app that wishes to use this framework for their app will be unable to use the location services of the cellphone (and the only entities that will get permission to use the framework will be legitimate public health entities.)


The actual reporting of a positive diagnosis and uploading of the log is fully opt-in, and can only be done with consent of the infected person. And the same in reverse, all processing of the possible exposures someone had is done locally on their phone.

While GAEN framework was developed for Android and iOS devices, it isn't limited to them. The specification is open and can be used in simple, cheap Bluetooth wearables (e.g. a wristband); in fact, Germany is in talks to distribute millions of these bands to elderly and poor people in time for the fall.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mikes@Micro on June 16, 2020, 01:53:11 AM

No, only people who have had an epidemiologically significant encounter will need to be notified. Based on current knowledge of COVID-19 this means >= 5 minutes at a distance of <=6 feet (these parameters are flexible based on the setting, e.g. outdoors vs. indoors). The bulk of such encounters are usually sussed out with minimal effort by the contact tracer, however it is time consuming to actually collate and inform all these people. The hope is that the GAEN framework will allow this part to be automated.
This makes sense although once you factor in minyanim and the subway (which NYC promised not to allow tracking) just to name two this becomes impractical very quickly

Quote
[/size]
The GAEN framework specification was developed with privacy being the biggest and most important factor. It works completely differently than the Israeli model of location tracking; rather it operates by keeping a log of which phone (identified by a random ID) you were near for an epidemiologically significant encounter (this is done via Bluetooth Low Energy, so it has minimal power consumption). Google and Apple even specified that any app that wishes to use this framework for their app will be unable to use the location services of the cellphone (and the only entities that will get permission to use the framework will be legitimate public health entities.)


The actual reporting of a positive diagnosis and uploading of the log is fully opt-in, and can only be done with consent of the infected person. And the same in reverse, all processing of the possible exposures someone had is done locally on their phone.

While GAEN framework was developed for Android and iOS devices, it isn't limited to them. The specification is open and can be used in simple, cheap Bluetooth wearables (e.g. a wristband); in fact, Germany is in talks to distribute millions of these bands to elderly and poor people in time for the fall.

The app may not be platform specific but if you know anything about the available options you will understand why it would not work on flip phones. (There is a great DDF thread called Revive the flip phone)

The framework was designed to be implemented by individual apps, Google and Apple never plan on releasing their own apps. The idea is for government health agencys to make apps using their framework. As per the CDC website and every other law review website I have found this will have to be done by individual states not on a federal level which the CDC writes (read through their documents carefully) will essentially negate any benefit bc we dont have border control between states (Some US history could shed light on this. When being founded some advocated to essentially have different countries)

In other words the CDC admits such tracing wont work period.

The idea of giving out bluetooth bracelets is certainly intriguing and could be extremely effective if deployed at a Federal level but is entirely impractical.
I DO NOT KNOW PERSONALLY KNOW OF A SINGLE PERSON WHO WOULD VOLUNTEER TO WEAR SUCH A BRACELET regardless if the govt claims they are not being tracked.
(Not to mention shabbos)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Euclid on June 16, 2020, 02:09:30 AM
This makes sense although once you factor in minyanim and the subway (which NYC promised not to allow tracking) just to name two this becomes impractical very quickly
This isn't the kind of tracking that NYC was talking about; this isn't location tracking. I wouldn't even call it tracking at all; your Bluetooth device is just storing in its memory all the devices it encountered for a set amount of time. What you do with that data is entirely up to you.

The app may not be platform specific but if you know anything about the available options you will understand why it would not work on flip phones. (There is a great DDF thread called Revive the flip phone)

The framework was designed to be implemented by individual apps, Google and Apple never plan on releasing their own apps. The idea is for government health agencys to make apps using their framework. As per the CDC website and every other law review website I have found this will have to be done by individual states not on a federal level which the CDC writes (read through their documents carefully) will essentially negate any benefit bc we dont have border control between states (Some US history could shed light on this. When being founded some advocated to essentially have different countries)

In other words the CDC admits such tracing wont work period.
The current medical opinion is that they only need ~60% of usage for this to be effective. While having a single federal program would definitely make it easier, the vast majority of exposures are done in a regional setting, and most neighboring states are already working with each other to combat Covid-19. They can (and will) expand these efforts to include contact tracing. Also, the varied state programs can be developed with interoperability in mind.

The idea of giving out bluetooth bracelets is certainly intriguing and could be extremely effective if deployed at a Federal level but is entirely impractical.
I DO NOT KNOW PERSONALLY KNOW OF A SINGLE PERSON WHO WOULD VOLUNTEER TO WEAR SUCH A BRACELET regardless if the govt claims they are not being tracked.
(Not to mention shabbos)
I think you're too focused on our community; we already see that our communities are (and were!) flouting medical advice, so I agree they wouldn't want to opt in to this. However, our communities make up an extremely minute portion of the US population, and really would have no impact on these tracing efforts in large. Anyways, arguably, tracing in our communities is even easier since we are so intertwined - you can just send out a text on the neighborhood/shul chat ;)


Contact tracing doesn't need to be perfect, it's just one of the tools in the toolbox to keep the R0 below 1.

"Don't let perfection be the enemy of good. --Voltaire"
                                                                  --Rabbi Frand
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 16, 2020, 06:00:03 AM
itís not likely at this point that someone has the virus and doesnít know that they do.
Seriously?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Moshe123 on June 16, 2020, 07:04:58 AM
It's been 5 weeks since this thread was started.

I think we all know the answer. Social distancing went from little to non-existent in many places during this time.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 16, 2020, 07:42:15 AM
It's been 5 weeks since this thread was started.

I think we all know the answer. Social distancing went from little to non-existent in many places during this time.
Past performance (of small sample size) is guarantee of future results!!
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: YankyDoodle on June 16, 2020, 10:19:25 AM
In my hospital today there were 6 OR cases cancelled due to asymptomatic patients Testing positive for COVID on random pre-op testing... that is not a good sign.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 16, 2020, 10:20:32 AM
In my hospital today there were 6 OR cases cancelled due to asymptomatic patients Testing positive for COVID on random pre-op testing... that is not a good sign.
What location?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: etech0 on June 16, 2020, 10:22:25 AM
In my hospital today there were 6 OR cases cancelled due to asymptomatic patients Testing positive for COVID on random pre-op testing... that is not a good sign.
Were they symptomatic in the past?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on June 16, 2020, 11:30:17 AM
In my hospital today there were 6 OR cases cancelled due to asymptomatic patients Testing positive for COVID on random pre-op testing... that is not a good sign.
"That is not a good sign." of what?

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: YankyDoodle on June 16, 2020, 11:31:58 AM
What location?
Miami
Were they symptomatic in the past?
To the best of my knowledge, no.
"That is not a good sign." of what?

Not a good sign of the title of this thread
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on June 16, 2020, 12:14:38 PM
Not a good sign of the title of this thread
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/second-wave-covid-19-u-s-or-are-we-still-n1231087
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 16, 2020, 01:49:39 PM
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/second-wave-covid-19-u-s-or-are-we-still-n1231087
The whole premise of the article is inaccurate. We aren't in a second wave because none of the locations that got hit hard during the first wave are having a recurrence, nothing to do with anything else.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 16, 2020, 03:53:18 PM
My understanding of the NY/NJ trajectory is that the people who didn't get it in March/April were being particularly careful and still are.

20% already had it, 30-40% probably aren't susceptible (based on data from confined ships), from the reaming 40% only a very small portion are at risk of severe symptoms, and these people are probably extremely careful. The portion of the population that isn't capable or interested in avoiding it already got it.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 16, 2020, 08:23:28 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/restaurants-again-shutting-their-doors-as-coronavirus-flares/ar-BB15zs8E?li=BBnb7Kz
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 16, 2020, 10:27:11 PM
And my point is that people have to have the virus to infect other people. And in NY itís not likely at this point that someone has the virus and doesnít know that they do.
There can definitely be asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people. The evidence points to the probability of super spreaders, 1 infected person can spread it to 1,000 people at a protest.

An outrageous number would be 50% of the population has been infected in NY. How many millions does that leave?
Places like The Bronx have a higher percentage than the citywide average of 20%+ with antibodies.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 16, 2020, 10:39:26 PM
My understanding of the NY/NJ trajectory is that the people who didn't get it in March/April were being particularly careful and still are.

20% already had it, 30-40% probably aren't susceptible (based on data from confined ships), from the reaming 40% only a very small portion are at risk of severe symptoms, and these people are probably extremely careful. The portion of the population that isn't capable or interested in avoiding it already got it.
Yep, was on a call today with few prominent rabbonim and DRs locally and they were all under the impression that corona is done in new york. Issue for yeshivas and the like is guys from out of town and what effects that will have.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on June 17, 2020, 07:29:57 AM
There can definitely be asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people. The evidence points to the probability of super spreaders, 1 infected person can spread it to 1,000 people at a protest.
Outdoors? That seems highly unlikely
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 17, 2020, 11:58:38 AM
Places like The Bronx have a higher percentage than the citywide average of 20%+ with antibodies.
So how many does that leave?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 12:20:41 PM
So how many does that leave?
We don't know, but it will certainly spread at a significantly slower pace because of the number of people who are no longer susceptible.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 17, 2020, 12:23:24 PM
We don't know, but it will certainly spread at a significantly slower pace because of the number of people who are no longer susceptible.
Will that be offset by those who no longer practice SD?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 12:28:47 PM
Will that be offset by those who no longer practice SD?
There was no social distancing when the first wave hit, there is much more social distancing now. Especially among the the vulnerable population (elderly/high risk who didn't already get the virus).
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 17, 2020, 12:30:43 PM
There was no social distancing when the first wave hit, there is much more social distancing now. Especially among the the vulnerable population (elderly/high risk who didn't already get the virus).
Hopefully it will be nowhere as bad as the first wave. That has been completely devastating. Worse than I thought.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 12:32:40 PM
Hopefully it will be nowhere as bad as the first wave. That has been completely devastating. Worse than I thought.
Worse than most people thought, but better than most models predicted.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 17, 2020, 12:35:47 PM
Worse than most people thought, but better than most models predicted.
Models change all the time. The way it is going now the models were right or on the low side unless you are using the ones that said 2mm if we did nothing.

When you look at the physical and economic damage it is way worse than predicted.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 01:49:21 PM
Models change all the time. The way it is going now the models were right or on the low side unless you are using the ones that said 2mm if we did nothing.

When you look at the physical and economic damage it is way worse than predicted.
The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 17, 2020, 02:38:33 PM
There was no social distancing when the first wave hit, there is much more social distancing now. Especially among the the vulnerable population (elderly/high risk who didn't already get the virus).
+1

Thereís no way weíre in a worse place than we were pre-COVID as far as SD. Additionally, there are an awful lot of people around with antibodies.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 17, 2020, 04:13:51 PM
The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.
Iíve asked this in the past but not been answered, what is your source for this? Trump announced that heís relying on a model that predicted between 100,000-240,000 deaths through August with social distancing measures in place when formulating the US government response. Looks like heís going to end up just about right (though only time will truly tell). Where have you seen otherwise?

ETA: I found this (https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/) from April, which also claims many experts believe daily deaths will drop to under 10 by early June with distancing measures in place. Well, measures arenít in place any longer and now there are still about 1,000 a day.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 04:18:38 PM
Iíve asked this in the past but not been answered, what is your source for this? Trump announced that heís relying on a model that predicted between 100,000-240,000 deaths through August with social distancing measures in place when formulating the US government response. Looks like heís going to end up just about right (though only time will truly tell). Where have you seen otherwise?
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 17, 2020, 04:19:15 PM
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
That was a negotiating tactic.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 17, 2020, 04:22:11 PM
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
What economic impact did that have? Was there policy implemented because he requested more ventilators? What model was he using?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 04:23:19 PM
That was a negotiating tactic.
As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 04:23:50 PM
What economic impact did that have? Was there policy implemented because he requested more ventilators? What model was he using?
As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 17, 2020, 04:30:16 PM
As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.

Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 04:33:54 PM
Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?
Please elaborate.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 17, 2020, 04:40:21 PM
Please elaborate.

He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 04:42:52 PM
He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.
Of course it does, the inaccurate models were used by politicians and the media for fear mongering and power grabbing.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 17, 2020, 04:47:57 PM
Of course it does, the inaccurate models were used by politicians and the media for fear mongering and power grabbing.

Great, he asked which models and your response was that Cuomo needed 40k vents. When he asked which model Cuomo used, your answer was

As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 04:51:26 PM
Great, he asked which models and your response was that Cuomo needed 40k vents. When he asked which model Cuomo used, your answer was
He asked 3 questions, I answered 2 of them but you chose to assume I was incoherently answering the third.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 17, 2020, 04:54:52 PM
He asked 3 questions, I answered 2 of them but you chose to assume I was incoherently answering the third.

You're right. I'm sorry.

Now back to original question: which models did we use that were completely off base?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 04:59:50 PM
You're right. I'm sorry.

Now back to original question: which models did we use that were completely off base?
Whichever one Cuomo based his claim of needing 40k ventilators on. Which model it was and how many models said otherwise doesn't matter, the fact is this is what was used to make the decisions that lead to the economic devastation.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 17, 2020, 05:03:22 PM
Whichever one Cuomo based his claim of needing 40k ventilators on. Which model it was and how many models said otherwise doesn't matter, the fact is this is what was used to make the decisions that lead to the economic devastation.

The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 17, 2020, 05:06:38 PM
The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.
Source?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 05:07:10 PM
The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.
The peak number of hospitalizations NYS was 18k, even if ventilators were the correct treatment it was still way off. Same with number of hospital beds which IIRC he said they would need like 180k beds.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 05:07:49 PM
Source?
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
The peak number of hospitalizations NYS was 18k, even if ventilators were the correct treatment it was still way off. Same with number of hospital beds which IIRC he said they would need like 180k beds.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 17, 2020, 05:12:11 PM

That's the personal loss not economic. Since you are on personal loss those numbers (deaths) look pretty accurate to me.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on June 17, 2020, 05:26:12 PM
That's the personal loss not economic. Since you are on personal loss those numbers (deaths) look pretty accurate to me.
I didn't realize you were questioning the economic impact. I thought it was quite obvious, forcing businesses to close and people to stay home for so long has a huge economic impact.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 17, 2020, 05:34:17 PM
I didn't realize you were questioning the economic impact. I thought it was quite obvious, forcing businesses to close and people to stay home for so long has a huge economic impact.
They predicted a huge economic impact. So I guess we are on the same page.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 17, 2020, 06:57:45 PM
That was a negotiating tactic.
No it wasnít. It led to the nursing home policy which led to thousands of unnecessary deaths. 
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 18, 2020, 10:18:49 AM
Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?

Because unfortunately, they mostly are conflated to a lesser or greater degree.

He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.

Models, by definition use a variety of inputs, some of which are guesses and assumptions. Those guesses and assumptions are influenced to various degrees by the (political) bias of the person designing (or ordering) said model. Also, despite disclaimers buried in the footnotes of the model, they often are publicized and promoted as gospel, lacking humility.

The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.

Indeed, and as long as the narrative of the lockdowns was to flatten the curve, it had credibility. There's no way to really avoid getting infected as long as a person is not totally isolated, but we can slow down the rate of infection to avoid overwhelming the medical system and allow more time to learn HOW TO TREAT THE SERIOUSLY ILL (any talk about waiting for a vaccine is a blatant lie, as no reasonable person expects a vaccine in less than 18 months, and that's being extremely optimistic and probably not realistic).
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 18, 2020, 10:44:03 AM
Because unfortunately, they mostly are conflated to a lesser or greater degree.

Theyíre conflated by many people but the science really doesnít care about the politics. Why do people keep saying itís political? The virus is apolitical, itís been politicized. Donít let the politics enter into a reasonable discussion in how we should be living our lives.

Models, by definition use a variety of inputs, some of which are guesses and assumptions. Those guesses and assumptions are influenced to various degrees by the (political) bias of the person designing (or ordering) said model. Also, despite disclaimers buried in the footnotes of the model, they often are publicized and promoted as gospel, lacking humility.

All very eloquent and wise but this discussion was about how the models being used to influence policy were actually pretty accurate. Itís a popular right-wing talking point that all politicians based their policy on Neil Fergusonís model (which may or may not prove right) but thatís just a flat out lie. Many models have actually proven dead on. And those were the models that a lot of policy (including the federal policy in the US) was based on.

Indeed, and as long as the narrative of the lockdowns was to flatten the curve, it had credibility. There's no way to really avoid getting infected as long as a person is not totally isolated, but we can slow down the rate of infection to avoid overwhelming the medical system and allow more time to learn HOW TO TREAT THE SERIOUSLY ILL (any talk about waiting for a vaccine is a blatant lie, as no reasonable person expects a vaccine in less than 18 months, and that's being extremely optimistic and probably not realistic).
I agree with you that not overwhelming the system and allowing time to learn how to treat patients were and are important goals but I strongly disagree with you that ďthereís no real way to avoid getting infectedĒ. If restrictions, testing, and contact tracing are implemented properly (as they have been in many if not most countries around the world) there is every reason to believe that the majority of people will never get infected.

To your last point, Iím not sure who you call reasonable people but a very large number of epidemiologists have said they believe there will be a mass produced vaccine by January 2021. If youíd bet on an outcome we can take this over to JS and Iíd put money down on that happening.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 18, 2020, 11:45:39 AM
Donít let the politics enter into a reasonable discussion in how we should be living our lives.
Unfortunately many are not capable of separating the two.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on June 18, 2020, 12:11:26 PM
Unfortunately many are not capable of separating the two.
Just like the public health experts who said protesting was okay.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on June 18, 2020, 12:20:05 PM
To your last point, Iím not sure who you call reasonable people but a very large number of epidemiologists have said they believe there will be a mass produced vaccine by January 2021. If youíd bet on an outcome we can take this over to JS and Iíd put money down on that happening.

Without touching on some other points at the moment, just to your point about a mass produced (and distributed?) effective vaccine by 2021, see:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html

Side note about all disagreements: we should all be mindful of confirmation bias.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 18, 2020, 01:10:02 PM
It's just a first wave, looking at NYC go back to normal nebech

And Orlando probably a major virus hotspot
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 18, 2020, 01:16:40 PM
It's just a first wave, looking at NYC go back to normal nebech

And Orlando probably a major virus hotspot
So even though numbers have been dropping for months everyone should stay indoors?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 18, 2020, 01:18:17 PM
So even though numbers have been dropping for months everyone should stay indoors?
Still putting words in people's mouths?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 18, 2020, 01:22:00 PM
Still putting words in people's mouths?
He said looking at people going back to normal nebach... did I miss something?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 18, 2020, 01:27:06 PM
He said looking at people going back to normal nebach... did I miss something?

Once again, there's a lot of space between staying home and going back to normal.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 18, 2020, 01:27:12 PM
He said looking at people going back to normal nebach... did I miss something?
Yes, a complete lack of nuance.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 18, 2020, 01:47:03 PM
You missed the fact that rising numbers means it's spreading.. you also conviently ignore that it took a while for NY to blow up earlier.

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 18, 2020, 01:53:21 PM
Without touching on some other points at the moment, just to your point about a mass produced (and distributed?) effective vaccine by 2021, see:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html

Side note about all disagreements: we should all be mindful of confirmation bias.
You said no reasonable person expects a vaccine in less than 18 months, and quoting one opinion piece that says itís unrealistic doesnít prove your negative. Many reasonable people have at this point agreed a vaccine by early 2021 is possible and even likely. I would be happy to provide sources of epidemiologists concurring if I donít count as reasonable enough to you.

Keep in mind that piece is from 7 weeks ago, which is eons. Several very promising vaccine candidates are already at Phase 3 clinical trials.

Your disclaimer is very true.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 18, 2020, 01:57:08 PM
That's why rising numbers matter, it means an active upward trend of spreading.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 18, 2020, 02:01:28 PM
The reason the virus is making less waves now is simply because

#1 hospitals aren't being flooded like before
#2 treatment got significantly better, much lower % are dying bh

There are 2 drugs out there that work. If remisvider lowers patients hospital stays by a few days, that clears up beds and hospital man power

The second drug for more chronic patients is saving lives.  Or any immunosuppressants they are using has been saving lives.

However, the idea was being safe, social distancing, masks, wash hands.

You sound like people in the eye of the hurricane, inside the eye it's very calm.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 18, 2020, 02:09:12 PM
You sound like people in the eye of the hurricane, inside the eye it's very calm.
Song version

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 18, 2020, 02:23:37 PM
You missed the fact that rising numbers means it's spreading.. you also conviently ignore that it took a while for NY to blow up earlier.
Sure, was spreading around like wild fire we just didn't know. The entire state must be blind...
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 18, 2020, 02:28:46 PM


The reason the virus is making less waves now is simply because

#1 hospitals aren't being flooded like before
#2 treatment got significantly better, much lower % are dying bh

There are 2 drugs out there that work. If remisvider lowers patients hospital stays by a few days, that clears up beds and hospital man power

The second drug for more chronic patients is saving lives.  Or any immunosuppressants they are using has been saving lives.

However, the idea was being safe, social distancing, masks, wash hands.

You sound like people in the eye of the hurricane, inside the eye it's very calm.

Why aren't they flooded like before? First we were all dumb because we didn't close shuls fast enough, now that they are all open and numbers are down.... new twist.  And great comparison, your talking about a virus that was spreading like wildfire and nobody knew about it?! More accurate comparison would be standing outside when it's nice weather and saying hey its nice weather.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 18, 2020, 04:47:26 PM

Why aren't they flooded like before? First we were all dumb because we didn't close shuls fast enough, now that they are all open and numbers are down.... new twist.  And great comparison, your talking about a virus that was spreading like wildfire and nobody knew about it?! More accurate comparison would be standing outside when it's nice weather and saying hey its nice weather.

You have got to be either the biggest troll or one of the more stupid people I've met in my life.

Dan discussed super spreaders before. In all likelihood the numbers just reflect the number of super spreaders or exposure to them.

For example, if super spreader a) wears a mask and sanitizes his hands etc even if no symptoms, in all likelihood none to few get
It.

New York is still getting cases, it's just not crazy, why ? Probably precautions and yes many got.

Will it blow up? I'm sure it can!

You can sprout your crap endlessly. I don't care.


Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 18, 2020, 04:49:16 PM
You have got to be either the biggest troll or one of the more stupid people I've met in my life.

Dan discussed super spreaders before. In all likelihood the numbers just reflect the number of super spreaders or exposure to them.

For example, if super spreader a) wears a mask and sanitizes his hands etc even if no symptoms, in all likelihood none to few get
It.

New York is still getting cases, it's just not crazy, why ? Probably precautions and yes many got.

Will it blow up? I'm sure it can!

You can sprout your crap endlessly. I don't care.
Keep up with the personal attacks. Cool story bro
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 18, 2020, 04:50:21 PM
Just like the public health experts who said protesting was okay.
So you are proving my point?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 18, 2020, 06:02:24 PM
Keep up with the personal attacks. Cool story bro

If you had any credentials you would post them If you don't have any credentials you have no business making comments to the point of

"More accurate comparison would be standing outside when it's nice weather and saying hey its nice weather."

No, the proper way to address this is to say, thank God it's been better, let's keep up the pre cautions so it doesn't get worse again

Perhaps I should celebrate paying off my credit cards, by inviting everyone out to le Marais and paying for it..

Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on June 18, 2020, 06:22:10 PM
Perhaps I should celebrate paying off my credit cards, by inviting everyone out to le Marais and paying for it..
I am in!  :)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 21, 2020, 02:51:31 PM
I'm confirmed with two internal medicine doctors In Miami specializing in pulmonary care. Both confirmed hospitalizations are up due to coronavirus.

Why does anybody not think that it's not going to explode again in New York?!?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: how on June 21, 2020, 02:55:08 PM
I'm confirmed with two internal medicine doctors In Miami specializing in pulmonary care. Both confirmed hospitalizations are up due to coronavirus.

Why does anybody not think that it's not going to explode again in New York?!?
Are you hearing that those hospitalizations are less severe than what we had back in March in NYC?

I don't think NY will explode because a percentage of the population already had it so it will spread slower
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 21, 2020, 02:55:23 PM
Perhaps I should celebrate paying off my credit cards, by inviting everyone out to le Marais and paying for it..

Socially distanced Backyard BBQ takeout instead?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 21, 2020, 02:56:54 PM
Why does anybody not think that it's not going to explode again in New York?!?
They don't think. And vote Trump.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 21, 2020, 03:50:48 PM
Socially distanced Backyard BBQ takeout instead?

Backyard BBQ take out comment should get you banned...

That's more apikorshe than anything I've said.. .

You have to have backyard BBQ in house with Mendel.. that's like getting la regence 11 course dinner takeout.

I'm shocked @Dan never did it

 It's only 420 shekel with tax included.  I heard people who got discounts with amex
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 21, 2020, 03:52:18 PM
Are you hearing that those hospitalizations are less severe than what we had back in March in NYC?

I don't think NY will explode because a percentage of the population already had it so it will spread slower

I don't know how severe they are I can ask.

But early on I said that, you can't expect treatment to be great when you have an exploding pandemic.

I would imagine that now the numbers are much lower
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 21, 2020, 04:09:20 PM
Backyard BBQ take out comment should get you banned...

That's more apikorshe than anything I've said.. .

You have to have backyard BBQ in house with Mendel.. that's like getting la regence 11 course dinner takeout.

I'm shocked @Dan never did it

 It's only 420 shekel with tax included.  I heard people who got discounts with amex
English translation?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 21, 2020, 04:19:22 PM
la regence 11 course dinner takeout.

I'm shocked @Dan never did it

 It's only 420 shekel with tax included.  I heard people who got discounts with amex
Kashrus issues.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: username on June 21, 2020, 05:01:08 PM
probably going to need at least a few more days for it to start showing up
How many days?

Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on June 21, 2020, 07:57:31 PM
I'm confirmed with two internal medicine doctors In Miami specializing in pulmonary care. Both confirmed hospitalizations are up due to coronavirus.

Why does anybody not think that it's not going to explode again in New York?!?

Florida is not NY. Florida never got hit like NY.
With each passing day, it is becoming more and more likely that NY/NJ will not see a significant second wave, unless immunity runs out before a vaccine is produced. In addition, many people are still distancing/wearing masks (though it decreases by the day), the government is testing enough and has great data transparency to help people make better decisions. There are still new cases in NY, but despite reopening and protests, the numbers continue to decrease.

Compare to Florida - lack of data transparency, encouraging people to go out unsafely, less herd immunity, itís a bad recipe playing out in many states.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: how on June 21, 2020, 08:13:09 PM
I don't know how severe they are I can ask.

If you can find out and report.

From Texas I heard that cases are less severe than 2 months ago
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 21, 2020, 10:09:15 PM
Florida is not NY. Florida never got hit like NY.
With each passing day, it is becoming more and more likely that NY/NJ will not see a significant second wave, unless immunity runs out before a vaccine is produced. In addition, many people are still distancing/wearing masks (though it decreases by the day), the government is testing enough and has great data transparency to help people make better decisions. There are still new cases in NY, but despite reopening and protests, the numbers continue to decrease.

Compare to Florida - lack of data transparency, encouraging people to go out unsafely, less herd immunity, itís a bad recipe playing out in many states.

Well they are certainly different but don't tell me that New York has herd immunity.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on June 21, 2020, 10:21:14 PM
The cases are not less severe they are the same as they were a couple months ago
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on June 21, 2020, 10:21:25 PM
Well they are certainly different but don't tell me that New York has herd immunity.

I didnít say NY has herd immunity. I said Florida has less herd immunity, or if you want to be precise - NY has a higher percentage of residents with immunity.

Bottom line: more people with immunity means lower infection rate. But there are other factors at play as I have mentioned.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 23, 2020, 11:13:52 AM
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1.full.pdf

This study ďmayĒ show that immunity which stems from T cells last a long time.

I didn't know enough to understand the article that @Afrages6 posted last week, so I detoured back to basic biology, then went back to the article, and then came up for air and wrote this TR of it all.  It's probably too simplified for many here, but it reflects my simplistic level of understanding, so let me know what I got wrong. 


Just how long will immunity to COVID last?
  We've usually answered this by discussing how long antibodies remain in the blood, but maybe other parts of the immune system are more important.  Letís look at those other parts, and they help defends against a virus.

We have some general mechanisms to prevent damage Ė multiple cell layers in our skin, hairs in our nose, cilia in our airways, sticky mucus on exposed surfaces, like tears in our eyes and mucus in the nasal passages.  These  block entry by the myriad bacteria, viruses, and fungi that we come into contact with every day, when we touch a doorknob or breathe in a public restroom, for example.  They work immediately upon contact with an infectious agent, and arenít picky about what it is, so theyíre sometimes called innate immunity, there from the time weíre born. 

Innate immunity prevents a lot of infections, but not all.  Other immune responses develop only after weíre exposed to a particular infectious agent, making up whatís called specific immunity, so letís take a look at what is meant by specificity.

Imagine you hold a kiddush cup with a stem in your hand, your fingers pressed snugly around the bumps and ridges in the stem.  Now imagine removing the cup, while your hand remains frozen in place, forming a mold that specifically fits that stem.  With eyes closed, youíd be able to use that hand to feel around the china cabinetÖ past the esrog boxÖpast the candlesticksÖthen, punkt!  Your molded hand ďrecognizesĒ the kiddush cup.  But one day you get fooled.  Youíre reaching in with your molded handÖ and when you open your eyesÖ youíve got a besomim box!  Some artist created a Havdalah set with the the identical stem on the cup and besomim box.  We could say that your molded hand, designed to react specifically with the stem of the kiddush cup, also cross-reacts with the similarly-shaped stem of the besomim box.
 
In the human body, many processes depend on this sort of recognition, where the 3-D structure of one protein molecule matches up exactly with another protein, and that connection leads to some change in the cell.  In addition, cross-reactivity happens, when a protein made to recognize X happens to also (inappropriately) recognize Y. 

In the immune system, two kinds of cells produce these sorts of proteins with specificity. 
B cells make antibody proteins, and release them into the fluid that surrounds the cell.  Antibodies can be isolated from the fluid part of blood, known as plasma.  Antibody activity is also known as humoral immunity, because it occurs in the bodyís fluids (not funny!  humoral, from the same root as humidity, meaning fluid). 

T cells make a protein called TCR, which, like antibodies, can match up with a specific target protein.  But T cells donít release TCR, rather they keep it stuck in their outer membrane, and itís the cell with TCR that actively fights infection.  This is called cellular immunity

Incidentally, although we talk about antibodies and T cells as being part of the blood, they are, in fact, both found throughout all the tissues of the body.  Theyíre just usually studied in blood, because people are more willing to donate a pint of blood than a pound of flesh. 

If we were to look at all the bloodís B cells under the microscope, theyíd look pretty much alike, but at a chemical level, theyíre quite varied.  One cluster of B cells make only antibodies that recognize a measles virus, another bunch make antibodies that recognize chicken pox, another might recognize a particular cold virus.  Similarly there are separate T cells with TCRs that are specific for measles, others specific for chicken pox, etc.  And cross-reactivity can happen, when an antibody or TCR made to recognize X can also recognize Y. 

Antibodies and TCR can recognize a particular protein on the surface of a virus, which in COVID, is often the Spike protein.  Pictures of the COVID virus show a ball with RNA inside and various proteins protruding outside.

Specific immune response - virus in blood

Now letís go back to that virus that wasnít stopped by the non-specific immune responses, and now finds itself in the fluids of the body.  Fluids released from the body, such as tears, saliva, and nasal mucus contain IgA antibodies.  If there are IgA antibodies specific for COVID, theyíll attach specifically to the spike protein, and thereby neutralize the virus, preventing it from doing further damage.

If the virus manages to get deeper into body fluids such as into blood or lymph, theyíll encounter IgG antibodies.  Again, IgG antibodies specific for the COVID spike protein will attach and neutralize the virus.  These fluids also contain macrophages, large cells that scoot around between the other cells of our body, much like the ameba you may have seen moving across a microscope slide in a biology class.  Macrophages engulf and digest the neutralized virus, breaking it down into smaller molecules that can then be recycled and reused.  Macrophages act nonspecifically, so can engulf a wide variety of particles Ė viruses, bacteria, particles of air pollution, what have you. 

Specific immune response - virus inside cell

A strong antibody response may stop the virus in its tracks, but if that doesn't happen, the virus can reach its final destination, the inside of a human cell.  The Spike protein on the virus surface, unencumbered by antibody, is now free to make a different protein-protein connection, and binds to ACE2, a protein on the surface of certain human cells.  This connection acts like a knock on the door, allowing the virus to enter the cell. 

Once inside, the virus takes over the cellís machinery, forcing it to churn out copies of viral proteins and viral RNA.  The human cell has been transformed into a virus-making factory.   Viral RNA and proteins are then packaged into new viral particles which are discharged from the cell and go on to infect other cells.  The infected cells, prevented by the virus from doing all their own normal human stuff, eventually dies off. 

The kind of damage this does to the body will depend on where the infected cells are.  ACE2, the protein that the COVID virus first latches on to, is found in the lungs, digestive tract, and blood vessels, and all of these have been shown to be affected in COVID patients.

But the body doesnít stand idly by and allow its cells to be infected by viruses Ė thereís an app for that!  Itís the T cell, and specifically killer T (or cytotoxic T, or CD8), which has a TCR protein on its surface that specifically recognizes a part of the COVID virus after it has infected a human cell.  The T cell sidles up to a COVID-infected cells, and the TCR-COVID protein-protein attachment leads the T cell to send a chemical signal (cytokine) that causes the infected cell to self-destruct.  Donít worry, you wonít miss the loss of the cell - youíve got 30 trillion more. The viral components are dispersed in the fluid, where they can be neutralized by antibodies and gobbled up by macrophages.
 
So this two-pronged approach, by antibodies and killer T cells, can effectively rid the body of the virus.  Another T cell, called T helper (CD4) coordinates the activity of the B and T cells.

Long-term immunity


The first time weíre exposed to a new virus, it can take 5-10 days for the B and T cells to make enough antibodies and TCR to fight this specific infection, and in the meantime, the virus has time to infect our cells and we get sick.  Only as sufficient antibodies and T cells are produced do we start to recover.   Memory B cells and memory T cells are also produced, and remain in our body after we recover.  The next time weíre infected with that same virus, the B and T cells make the specific antibody and TCR so quickly that they overpower the virus before it gets a chance to do any damage, and we're considered immune to that virus.

So our original question, How long does immunity to COVID last, can be rephrased as How long do memory B and memory T cells remain after COVID infection? And are those memory cells still able to fight infection? 

The new article

We canít answer that for COVID, since the virus hasnít been around for a long time, so Nina Le Bert and her co-workers (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1.full.pdf) asked a similar question regarding a similar virus that appeared 17 years ago, known as SARS.  SARS is also a coronavirus, in the same family as COVID, so it could give us a hint about what to expect from COVID.   (Proper names of the viruses are now SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, but I abbreviated them to SARS and COVID.)

With regard to humoral immunity (B cells and antibodies), some think this will be short-lived.  It was already known that people who had recovered from SARS in 2003 had antibodies at that time, but they were gone from the blood after 2-3 years.  A recent paper from China (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/health/coronavirus-antibodies.html) suggests that the same may be true of COVID antibodies, which start to diminish after just 2-3 months.  So it's not clear whether humoral immunity to these viruses is long-lasting.

What about cellular immunity (T cells)?  Do people who had been infected with SARS in 2003 still have T cells specific for SARS?  Le Bert tried to answer this by using proteins that were known to have been part of the SARS virus (the SARS virus itself has disappeared).  She mixed those SARS proteins with the blood of people previously infected with SARS, and found that in every single person the blood still contained T cells that could recognize those proteins.  They concluded that memory T-cells can last as long as 17 years after infection with the SARS virus, and makes us hopeful that those whoíve recovered from COVID will similarly have long-lasting cellular immunity.

Le Bert did another study, this time on blood which had been collected in 2019, so it was from people who definitely had not had either SARS or COVID-19 which were not around then.  Much to their surprise, half of these people did have T-cells that could recognize certain COVID proteins!  But we know that T cells are only made specifically for those foreign agents weíve been exposed to, and these people hadnít been exposed to COVID or SARS.   So where could these T-cells have come from?  Their best guess is that these people had once been exposed to yet a third virus, with a similar structure, which might have given them a mild cold, if anything.   T cells would have been made specific to that virus, but due to the similar structure of COVID, the T cells cross-react with the COVID protein.   

This is actually the third paper that @Afrages6 has posted (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=115800.msg2259008#msg2259008), which show that even before COVID appeared, T cells that cross-react with COVID were already in the blood of some people. 

Implications

One implication of this is that it might explain why some people are exposed to the coronavirus but remain asymptomatic.  Perhaps these asymptomatic people had some long-term T-cell immunity based on their exposure to some unknown, related coronavirus, and this protected them from a serious infection.
   
Another implication of this is that it might change our concept of what is needed for herd immunity, something that @Afrage6 said (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=115800.msg2259020#msg2259020) weeks ago.  If 50% of people have some degree of immunity due to a cross-reacting T memory cell, and 20% have immunity because they actually came down with COVID and recovered, then we may have 70% immune, which may be close to herd immunity, even without a vaccine.  On the other hand, as @Lurker (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=114968.msg2259579#msg2259579) has pointed out, itís possible that of the 20% who came down with COVID, half of those also had the cross-reacting memory T cells and they didnít work, so maybe cross-reacting T cells are not as useful as weíd hope.

A few caveats:

Le Bert found T cells made in response to some older virus, that can physically cross-react with the COVID virus proteins.  But as @S209 noted (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=115800.msg2259052#msg2259052) we donít yet have evidence that these T cells can actually fight off a COVID infection.   Even in the case where those who recovered from SARS have T cells specific for SARS,  we canít be sure how effective those would be in fighting a second SARS infection, since the SARS virus has disappeared.

We donít know if these findings will generalize to other people Ė When they say that 50% of people had some T-cell immunity before COVID, they are talking about 50% of the 18 people they sampled, which is just 9 individuals.  We canít really extrapolate from that to conclude that 50% of 328 million Americans would show the same response.   These people also all lived in Singapore, so itís possible that the viruses prevalent there were not common in the US, and that fewer Americans would have this particular T cell.

This research hasnít been peer reviewed, that is, critiqued by immunologists who know something about the subject.

I still donít understand how memory T cells would be enough to stop an infection Ė I thought they needed to be accompanied by antibodies, and here they seem to be saying that long-term cellular immunity would be enough to prevent infection.
 
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 23, 2020, 01:08:03 PM
@biobook There's no way you weren't/aren't a teacher. You have a great knack for breaking down complicated science into an understandable "For Dummies" format. Thank you!!
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 23, 2020, 01:16:35 PM
@biobook There's no way you weren't/aren't a teacher. You have a great knack for breaking down complicated science into an understandable "For Dummies" format. Thank you!!
+1000 should definitely be one.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on June 23, 2020, 01:33:14 PM
https://20il.co.il/24-6/?p=514740
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Dan on June 24, 2020, 12:20:54 AM
@biobook There's no way you weren't/aren't a teacher. You have a great knack for breaking down complicated science into an understandable "For Dummies" format. Thank you!!
+1, amazing!
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Proisrael on June 24, 2020, 02:03:54 AM
The cases are not less severe they are the same as they were a couple months ago

In Israel the cases are far far less severe....Ventilator use actually fell by 2 from 29 to 27 yesterday. And this is now 2 weeks after the jump has started.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 24, 2020, 05:42:03 AM
In Israel the cases are far far less severe....
Completely not true.

Ventilator use actually fell by 2 from 29 to 27 yesterday. And this is now 2 weeks after the jump has started.
Ventilators are not being used anymore until absolutely necessary.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Proisrael on June 24, 2020, 06:40:09 AM
Completely not true.
Ventilators are not being used anymore until absolutely necessary.

Well maybe the media is lying and you have a secret source to help fuel unnecessary panic.

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-covid-19-cases-skyrocket-as-govt-restricts-hotspots-1001333423
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: B.D.Da'ehu on June 24, 2020, 06:53:48 AM
Well maybe the media is lying and you have a secret source to help fuel unnecessary panic.

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-covid-19-cases-skyrocket-as-govt-restricts-hotspots-1001333423 (https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-covid-19-cases-skyrocket-as-govt-restricts-hotspots-1001333423)
The most important number to watch is serious cases. If you look at the numbers you'll see it has consistently risen over the last few weeks. In the latest update today it's back up to 45.


The fact that most positives now are younger people does make that number go up more slowly, however as more and more test positive overall we unfortunately are seeing a consistent rise in those in serious condition.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Proisrael on June 24, 2020, 08:30:40 AM
The most important number to watch is serious cases. If you look at the numbers you'll see it has consistently risen over the last few weeks. In the latest update today it's back up to 45.


The fact that most positives now are younger people does make that number go up more slowly, however as more and more test positive overall we unfortunately are seeing a consistent rise in those in serious condition.

The number on Sunday was 49 then fell to 40 now back to 45. Still less then Sundays numbers. Ventilators was at 29 fell to 26 and now at 27. These numbers are far better then the begining where severe cases were about 3-4% of total cases.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 24, 2020, 08:40:51 AM
The number on Sunday was 49 then fell to 40 now back to 45. Still less then Sundays numbers. Ventilators was at 29 fell to 26 and now at 27. These numbers are far better then the begining where severe cases were about 3-4% of total cases.

Remember that the first time around, we had little idea what we were looking for and public knowledge was close to zero, so by the time someone tested positive, there was a very short amount of time before the infection became serious. Now that we're catching it very early, it will take that much longer for an infection to become serious. It's also very likely that early treatment will keep many cases from becoming serious in the first place.

All of the above is good news. It also says nothing about the seriousness of the virus itself. Early detection and treatment doesn't mean the virus has weakened. It means we're doing what we're supposed to do. However, if the spread becomes exponentially worse, there is a good chance that more and more cases will avoid early detection and treatments will get delayed, causing serious cases to rise again.

(Hishtadlus, yada yada, you've heard this part before...)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 24, 2020, 09:28:06 AM
More testing means less serious cases are picked up.

There is ZERO evidence to suggest the virus is weaker. We have full genome of the latest strands and it's just as potent.

It's incredible how quick people are to gobble the latest theory allowing them to deny reality.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Proisrael on June 24, 2020, 09:41:25 AM
More testing means less serious cases are picked up.

There is ZERO evidence to suggest the virus is weaker. We have full genome of the latest strands and it's just as potent.

It's incredible how quick people are to gobble the latest theory allowing them to deny reality.

I see the reality on the ground here in Israel. They speak for themselves.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: B.D.Da'ehu on June 24, 2020, 09:54:48 AM
I see the reality on the ground here in Israel. They speak for themselves.
What exactly are you seeing on the ground that indicates there's any difference in severity of cases versus last time around?


I'm also 'seeing the reality on the ground'.


As mentioned, the majority of new cases are younger people, but there are definitely older as well and we don't have any evidence suggesting covid suddenly weakened.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Proisrael on June 24, 2020, 10:14:20 AM
What exactly are you seeing on the ground that indicates there's any difference in severity of cases versus last time around?


I'm also 'seeing the reality on the ground'.


As mentioned, the majority of new cases are younger people, but there are definitely older as well and we don't have any evidence suggesting covid suddenly weakened.

There was a few nursing homes with patients and none of them got it severe. Especially not like last time.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 24, 2020, 11:34:05 AM
I see the reality on the ground here in Israel. They speak for themselves.
Where have I seen this scientific argument before..  ::)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Proisrael on June 24, 2020, 01:35:54 PM
Where have I seen this scientific argument before..  ::)

Are you in Israel? Didnt think so.....Here we dont spread hysteria.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yelped on June 24, 2020, 01:39:04 PM
Are you in Israel? Didnt think so.....Here we dont spread hysteria.
You're not being reasonable. Please address the other posters' points.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: jose34 on June 24, 2020, 01:43:42 PM
There was a few nursing homes with patients and none of them got it severe. Especially not like last time.
Doesn't it take a few weeks from the time people get it until it gets severe?
On the other hand while its spreading pretty fast in E"Y, B"H BA"H there have been no major uptick in people on respirators.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 24, 2020, 02:04:15 PM
Are you in Israel? Didnt think so.....Here we dont spread hysteria.
Moving right along to your next salient point. If I donít live in Israel I canít use logic to make a rational argument. Whatís next, grocery stores and driving cars?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: jose34 on June 24, 2020, 02:22:54 PM
Moving right along to your next salient point. If I donít live in Israel I canít use logic to make a rational argument. Whatís next, grocery stores and driving cars?
I'm not sure this is what @Proisrael means but what he could mean, is that in Israel everyone is much calmer and more resilient do the fact were all Jews and we had to get through גלות in some way. Israel (country and Jewish People) are, unfortunately, used to bad things happening so Corona is just another bump in the road and as I nation, people do not panic as much.
While in the other countries that are not used to adversity for example when something like Corona happens people go crazy and they think the world is coming to an end.   
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 24, 2020, 02:25:49 PM
I'm not sure this is what @Proisrael means but what he could mean, is that in Israel everyone is much calmer and more resilient do the fact were all Jews and we had to get through גלות in some way. Israel (country and Jewish People) are, unfortunately, used to bad things happening so Corona is just another bump in the road and as I nation, people do not panic as much.
While in the other countries that are not used to adversity for example when something like Corona happens people go crazy and they think the world is coming to an end.   
Thatís a very nice point but says nothing about the facts on the ground. Facts donít care about your feelings.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on June 24, 2020, 02:34:16 PM
Thatís a very nice point but says nothing about the facts on the ground. Facts donít care about your feelings.
What are the known facts regarding the state of Covid19 in Israel?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 24, 2020, 02:35:19 PM
What are the known facts regarding the state of Covid19 in Israel?
2.5 weeks later and this thread didn't age well. 459 new cases in the last 24 hours, we are on our way to a bad situation
New lockdowns in targeted areas across the country
The most important number to watch is serious cases. If you look at the numbers you'll see it has consistently risen over the last few weeks. In the latest update today it's back up to 45.

The fact that most positives now are younger people does make that number go up more slowly, however as more and more test positive overall we unfortunately are seeing a consistent rise in those in serious condition.
More testing means less serious cases are picked up.

There is ZERO evidence to suggest the virus is weaker. We have full genome of the latest strands and it's just as potent.

It's incredible how quick people are to gobble the latest theory allowing them to deny reality.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yaakov35 on June 24, 2020, 05:40:38 PM
https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/06/24/gov-greg-abbott-says-texas-massive-covid-19-outbreak/
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 24, 2020, 06:01:44 PM
https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/06/24/gov-greg-abbott-says-texas-massive-covid-19-outbreak/
What a lib. Doesnít he know itís just due to an increase in testing?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on June 24, 2020, 07:13:59 PM
https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/06/24/gov-greg-abbott-says-texas-massive-covid-19-outbreak/

:o :o
Real shocker

Who couldíve seen this coming?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on June 24, 2020, 07:20:13 PM
:o :o
Real shocker

Who couldíve seen this coming?
These days you canít even expect people to see it after it arrived
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on June 24, 2020, 07:28:17 PM
These days you canít even expect people to see it after it arrived

ďFlorida researchers indicate possible evidence of human-to-human transmission of a newly discovered coronavirus.Ē
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Moshe123 on June 24, 2020, 07:33:24 PM
There is no herd immunity in these places. There is in NY.
Next...
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on June 24, 2020, 07:39:12 PM
There is no herd immunity in these places. There is in NY.
Next...

The only thing NY has is Heard Immunity.
Next...
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 24, 2020, 07:41:49 PM
There is no herd immunity in these places. There is in NY.
Next...
The sky is bright red.

Next...

Disclaimer: I am not saying itís not *possible* there is some level of herd immunity. Iím saying itís not *proven*. Saying it confidently doesnít make it so.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on June 24, 2020, 10:15:35 PM
What a lib. Doesnít he know itís just due to an increase in testing?
...
Do people believe this virus has been eradicated from the face of the planet?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on June 24, 2020, 10:21:22 PM

Yes. Many people here have proclaimed corona ďoverĒ.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on June 25, 2020, 01:03:38 AM
@biobook There's no way you weren't/aren't a teacher. You have a great knack for breaking down complicated science into an understandable "For Dummies" format. Thank you!!
Yes, I did have a few stints as a substitute teacher... 7th grade boys... 12th grade girls...  a summer class for kids in junior high.  The things one does for parnassah!  It was enough to convince me that I didn't have the personality for that.
The background stuff I wrote is Bio 101, basic introductory biology, which is all the immunology I've learned.  Reading the article was more grueling, and like Mr. Pooh I kept thinking,  "I am a Bear of Very Little Brain, and long words Bother me."
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: B.D.Da'ehu on June 28, 2020, 01:17:43 PM
The number on Sunday was 49 then fell to 40 now back to 45. Still less then Sundays numbers. Ventilators was at 29 fell to 26 and now at 27. These numbers are far better then the begining where severe cases were about 3-4% of total cases.
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Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Mtrasb on June 28, 2020, 01:50:01 PM
On the issue of reinfection, reactivation and persistent infection

There have been reports of people in our community who appear to have had COVID in the past (evidenced by antibody presence, viral test, or classic symptoms) and have since recovered for many weeks, and who now have covid-like symptoms again. Some of these individuals are now testing positive for the virus. What does this mean; how do we interpret this?

There are several possibilities:

1. Their body had completely fought off the virus, and then they caught the virus again from someone else, resulting in the second set of symptoms.

This is the most worrisome possibility, and what people typically mean when they say ďreinfectionĒ. These people lend credence to the possibility that protection acquired from the original infection is indeed short lived (as witnessed by IgG antibody levels falling quite rapidly as we see), and that given a sufficient exposure to another infectious individual, they may become reinfected and sick with COVID all over again, and may themselves be infectious. They would need to quarantine fully for at least 10 days after the onset of symptoms, just in case this truly is a new infection (even if they have antibodies).

2. Their body did not completely fight off the virus; some virus remained dormant. That remaining virus was somehow reactivated, causing those second set of symptoms.

This is less worrisome, as it does not necessarily imply community spread. As of this time we have tended to think of people who have the virus as not being infectious 2 weeks after symptom onset. Whether patients with ďreactivated infectionĒ truly exist, or this is either option 1 above or 3 below remains to be proven.

3. Their body completely fought off the virus, but some viral particles remained in their secretions for many weeks, presumably dead/inactive. Their second set of symptoms was in fact not due to active infection with coronavirus but possibly is a delayed immune response or other infectious cause, however when tested for the virus, the test sensed those remaining viral particles and returned a positive result.

This is the least worrisome, although there is a limit to how long we think dead viral particles hang around for.

In addition, if they had tested negative for the virus (twice ideally) while they were recovered, and then the test turned positive on their second set of symptoms, this option is no longer a reasonable consideration.

Which one of these possibilities is the true answer, or indeed whether the true answer is a combination of these three possibilities, is still unknown. This is currently one of the most pressing questions about the virus, and one which is being actively researched. 

A somewhat related question is how long antibodies last for. Meaning, even if we assume that someone who interacted with the virus indeed does have protection, we are still studying how long that lasts for, and whether the antibodies are the sole measure of this protection, or does immunity possibly rest elsewhere in a profoundly complex human immune system (and not necessarily dependent on antibody levels). Again, this is something being studied, and we hope that for the majority of people protection lasts at least several months and more.

Practically:

If someone already had covid (by antibodies, viral test, or classic covid symptoms) and is now experiencing a second set of typical covid-like symptoms, please do get tested for the virus. If the test is positive, please isolate yourself until 10 days have elapsed from the beginning of the symptoms and your fever/symptoms have resolved.

If someone already had covid (by antibodies, viral test, or classic covid symptoms) and then later has a positive viral test but is not having any covid symptoms, they do not need to quarantine, however they should be very careful with mask use and social distancing.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: YitzyS on July 01, 2020, 04:59:33 PM
BREAKING: I have a reliable report that there seems to be a COVID resurgence beginning in Lakewood. Five frum community members tested positive yesterday, and 5 new cases are pending today. A FRUM MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY IS NOW IN THE ICU. Another frum man, from Florida, worked in a large Lakewood day camp and had close contact with many people, and he just tested positive.

Guys, it's crazy how we are throwing caution to the wind. This seems to be a major issue. Please spread the word to anyone you know, so that they can take all needed precautions.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on July 01, 2020, 05:13:39 PM
BREAKING: I have a reliable report that there seems to be a COVID resurgence beginning in Lakewood. Five frum community members tested positive yesterday, and 5 new cases are pending today. A FRUM MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY IS NOW IN THE ICU. Another frum man, from Florida, worked in a large Lakewood day camp and had close contact with many people, and he just tested positive.

Guys, it's crazy how we are throwing caution to the wind. This seems to be a major issue. Please spread the word to anyone you know, so that they can take all needed precautions.
What goes around comes around. NY-FL-NY
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Hjay on July 01, 2020, 11:57:57 PM
BREAKING: I have a reliable report that there seems to be a COVID resurgence beginning in Lakewood. Five frum community members tested positive yesterday, and 5 new cases are pending today. A FRUM MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY IS NOW IN THE ICU. Another frum man, from Florida, worked in a large Lakewood day camp and had close contact with many people, and he just tested positive.

Guys, it's crazy how we are throwing caution to the wind. This seems to be a major issue. Please spread the word to anyone you know, so that they can take all needed precautions.

Why is this not happening in NY? Whatís the explanation that NY just keeps going down BH.

PS Not asking this from any side of the argument just wondering & Iím sure weíll hear from both sides
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on July 02, 2020, 12:00:22 AM
Why is this not happening in NY? Whatís the explanation that NY just keeps going down BH.

PS Not asking this from any side of the argument just wondering & Iím sure weíll hear from both sides
Are you sure itís not happening in NY? Itís not on such a large scale in Lakewood just yet, but it's a close knit community with collaboration by all local doctors so they have the information collated well.

10 symptomatic patients who tested positive already can mean there are potentially dozens more asymptomatic/presymptomatic spreading it silently chĒv.. I donít know if that scale would be detected in NY quite as quickly.

There are also those who believe NY was hit harder earlier on.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Luvisrael on July 02, 2020, 12:03:24 AM
Itís inevitable  that someone will bring back invisible souvenirs from a place with significant cases.I cancelled my LA trip because of this.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Moshe123 on July 02, 2020, 12:38:25 AM
Herd immunity is about that it would be very difficult to spread locally in a more than localized manner.
Obviously, a person with no antibodies traveling to Florida is just like any Floridian. Why would he be different. Nothing here is contradictory to what most people are saying.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: S209 on July 02, 2020, 12:30:18 PM
Herd immunity is about that it would be very difficult to spread locally in a more than localized manner.
Obviously, a person with no antibodies traveling to Florida is just like any Floridian. Why would he be different. Nothing here is contradictory to what most people are saying.
Exactly
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Hjay on July 02, 2020, 01:45:28 PM
Herd immunity is about that it would be very difficult to spread locally in a more than localized manner.
Obviously, a person with no antibodies traveling to Florida is just like any Floridian. Why would he be different. Nothing here is contradictory to what most people are saying.

Is there more herd immunity in Brooklyn than Lakewood? I know many people from Brooklyn whoíve been in Florida over the past few weeks.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 02, 2020, 01:49:35 PM
I'd be curious to see a study on herd immunity where the herd with over x% immunity interacts with many other herds with no immunity.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on July 02, 2020, 02:27:56 PM
Is there more herd immunity in Brooklyn than Lakewood? I know many people from Brooklyn whoíve been in Florida over the past few weeks.
Ah... so that's how it came here?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Essen est zich on July 02, 2020, 02:29:44 PM
New update from the gedalia society.

https://anash.org/coronavirus-update-35-switching-to-yellow-light-mode/
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on July 02, 2020, 02:29:55 PM
I'd be curious to see a study on herd immunity where the herd with over x% immunity interacts with many other herds with no immunity.
That would pretty much be the definition of "no herd immunity", no?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 02, 2020, 02:34:49 PM
That would pretty much be the definition of "no herd immunity", no?

I'm not talking about a full integration and dilution of the herd, just a series of interactions with other herds. I want to know at what point is your herd just part of a larger herd.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on July 02, 2020, 02:48:38 PM
I'm not talking about a full integration and dilution of the herd, just a series of interactions with other herds. I want to know at what point is your herd just part of a larger herd.
If we use this definition: Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.

I think you're asking How do we define community? 
Does it mean all those who live and eat and work mostly with each other?  (eg, Jewish CH)
Or do we need to add to that those who join that physical space for shorter periods of working or eating, for example? (eg, cashier in CH grocery store who lives elsewhere, visitors who come just to shop)
If many individuals leave the community during the day for work, for example, can we still refer to the original community as having herd immunity, or does community need to be defined as the original community, plus all those within physical proximity of places of work and public transportation?  (eg, CH plus the rest of NYC)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on July 02, 2020, 03:03:17 PM
If we use this definition: Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.

I think you're asking How do we define community? 
Does it mean all those who live and eat and work mostly with each other?  (eg, Jewish CH)
Or do we need to add to that those who join that physical space for shorter periods of working or eating, for example? (eg, cashier in CH grocery store who lives elsewhere, visitors who come just to shop)
If many individuals leave the community during the day for work, for example, can we still refer to the original community as having herd immunity, or does community need to be defined as the original community, plus all those within physical proximity of places of work and public transportation?  (eg, CH plus the rest of NYC)
We don't say there is no herd immunity in the US for the measles because you have people coming from countries in Africa where the measles is still common. The same would apply on a smaller scale to a community like CH, while there are interactions outside the "herd", as long as the interactions aren't enough to dilute the herd you have a situation where a big outbreak is impossible.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 02, 2020, 03:23:10 PM
I think you're asking How do we define community? 
We don't say there is no herd immunity in the US for the measles because you have people coming from countries in Africa where the measles is still common. The same would apply on a smaller scale to a community like CH, while there are interactions outside the "herd", as long as the interactions aren't enough to dilute the herd you have a situation where a big outbreak is impossible.

The question is, at what point does the community become absorbed into a greater community? Every herd will have outside interactions without nullifying its status as a herd. Is there a point where a community interacts with outsiders so much that either they lose the benefits of the perceived immunities or they just lose their status as a community to begin with?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on July 02, 2020, 03:42:55 PM
When I think of "herd immunity", I envision Farmer Brown's herd of sheep within an enclosed fence, totally separated from any other sheep.

But I'm totally ignorant about this, so won't say any more.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on July 02, 2020, 03:49:07 PM
When I think of "herd immunity", I envision Farmer Brown's herd of sheep within an enclosed fence, totally separated from any other sheep.

But I'm totally ignorant about this, so won't say any more.
That wouldn't require any immunity, that stops anything from getting in in the first place. Herd immunity is enough immunity that even if someone does catch the virus an outbreak is impossible because the chain is statistically guaranteed to break.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 02, 2020, 04:18:27 PM
Keep an eye on NY's numbers over the next 10 days. I believe we've just passed the lowest point we'll see for infections for a very long time. I don't think the numbers will get really bad anytime soon, but something to keep an eye on as the weather gets hotter and moves people back indoors.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on July 02, 2020, 04:20:56 PM
That wouldn't require any immunity, that stops anything from getting in in the first place. Herd immunity is enough immunity that even if someone does catch the virus an outbreak is impossible because the chain is statistically guaranteed to break.
My simplistic and possibly incorrect understanding:

Farmer Brown has 10 sheep - 7 (X) were infected and recovered, 3 (O) still susceptible: 
XXOXXXOXXO

If an Infected sheep (I) is introduced to the herd, it is most likely to bump into an X, rather than O. 
XXOXIXXOXXO
The Xs are protected directly by antibody immunity, so won't spread the disease. The Os are protected indirectly, due to herd immunity.

Farmer Green has a separate herd of 10 healthy sheep, all susceptible to disease.  They're enclosed in a fence, but there is no herd immunity, because the introduction of a single infected sheep could get them all sick.

Now Farmer Green sells his entire herd to Farmer Brown.  The new herd has 7 infected + 13 susceptible
OOXXOXOOOXOXOOXXOOOO

If an Infected sheep is introduced, it is most likely to bump into an O.
OOXXOXOIOOXOXOOXXOOOO
We would say there is no herd immunity.  The Xs are still protected due to their own antibodies, but the 3 Os that had immunity due to being in the herd have now lost that due to the introduction of healthy, uninfected individuals. One infected individual can get all the Os sick. It wouldn't matter if Farmer Brown's sheep followed a different religion from Farmer Green's.

So the question I think Lurker was asking was What happens if Farmer Brown and Farmer Green keep their herds separate, but all the sheep spend an hour a day foraging in the same field.  Is this equivalent to the case where the two herds are combined?  How much time do they need to spend together to be considered a single herd, when it comes to herd immunity?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Euclid on July 02, 2020, 04:39:09 PM
Keep an eye on NY's numbers over the next 10 days. I believe we've just passed the lowest point we'll see for infections for a very long time. I don't think the numbers will get really bad anytime soon, but something to keep an eye on as the weather gets hotter and moves people back indoors.
Are you basing this off of what's happening in Florida?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on July 02, 2020, 04:43:18 PM
My simplistic and possibly incorrect understanding:

Farmer Brown has 10 sheep - 7 (X) were infected and recovered, 3 (O) still susceptible: 
XXOXXXOXXO

If an Infected sheep (I) is introduced to the herd, it is most likely to bump into an X, rather than O. 
XXOXIXXOXXO
The Xs are protected directly by antibody immunity, so won't spread the disease. The Os are protected indirectly, due to herd immunity.

Farmer Green has a separate herd of 10 healthy sheep, all susceptible to disease.  They're enclosed in a fence, but there is no herd immunity, because the introduction of a single infected sheep could get them all sick.

Now Farmer Green sells his entire herd to Farmer Brown.  The new herd has 7 infected + 13 susceptible
OOXXOXOOOXOXOOXXOOOO

If an Infected sheep is introduced, it is most likely to bump into an O.
OOXXOXOIOOXOXOOXXOOOO
We would say there is no herd immunity.  The Xs are still protected due to their own antibodies, but the 3 Os that had immunity due to being in the herd have now lost that due to the introduction of healthy, uninfected individuals. One infected individual can get all the Os sick. It wouldn't matter if Farmer Brown's sheep followed a different religion from Farmer Green's.

So the question I think Lurker was asking was What happens if Farmer Brown and Farmer Green keep their herds separate, but all the sheep spend an hour a day foraging in the same field.  Is this equivalent to the case where the two herds are combined?  How much time do they need to spend together to be considered a single herd, when it comes to herd immunity?
I'll tweak your example where each (X) or (O) represents 100 sheep instead of 1, we're also working with a simplified assumption where each sheep only comes in contact with 1 other sheep. When you have 7(X) and 3(O) there is a decently high possibility (30%) that the infected sheep will come in contact with 1 of the (O)'s, but at some point the next infected sheep will only come in contact with the (X)'s breaking the chain of infections thereby stopping the outbreak. Back to our community, as long as you don't have everyone mingling with other communities even if some people get it from outside the community there is a limit to how much it can spread.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on July 02, 2020, 04:53:21 PM
I'll tweak your example where each (X) or (O) represents 100 sheep instead of 1, we're also working with a simplified assumption where each sheep only comes in contact with 1 other sheep. When you have 7(X) and 3(O) there is a decently high possibility (30%) that the infected sheep will come in contact with 1 of the (O)'s, but at some point the next infected sheep will only come in contact with the (X)'s breaking the chain of infections thereby stopping the outbreak.
Yes, of course, agreed.
Quote
Back to our community, as long as you don't have everyone mingling with other communities even if some people get it from outside the community there is a limit to how much it can spread.
Back to a definition of our community.  How do you define this?  Is your community your neighborhood in Lakewood?  All of Jewish Lakewood?  All of Jewish and non-Jewish Lakewood?  Does it include those who commute to Lakewood every day for a job?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on July 02, 2020, 05:05:26 PM
Back to a definition of our community.  How do you define this?  Is your community your neighborhood in Lakewood?  All of Jewish Lakewood?  All of Jewish and non-Jewish Lakewood?  Does it include those who commute to Lakewood every day for a job?
That's a good question and it's hard to pinpoint exactly where to draw the lines. I would assume we should include Jewish people in (and around) Lakewood, the same would go for Williamsburg, BP, and CH.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: biobook on July 02, 2020, 05:18:05 PM
That's a good question and it's hard to pinpoint exactly where to draw the lines. I would assume we should include Jewish people in (and around) Lakewood, the same would go for Williamsburg, BP, and CH.
That's what I thought you were thinking, but I think it's wrong.  I think the lines should be drawn around all the people who are in physical proximity, so if your neighbor's mother-in-law lives with them, and has a non-Jewish health care aide who comes every day, and your other neighbor works every day in an office with a non-Jewish coworker, and you mix with those neighbors in shul and shopping, then the community of people who can be potentially infected and transmit the disease would have to include all those people, Jews and non-Jews. 

But I'm not at all sure about this, so I'm going to go read about herd immunity and see if I learn anything worthwhile.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 02, 2020, 05:55:04 PM
Are you basing this off of what's happening in Florida?

Only as a part of a much bigger picture. Hate 'em or hate 'em, NY's restrictions effectively lowered the number of active infections to a point where spread became minimal. Not only did it keep hotspots from sprouting (bars, restaurants, churches, etc.), but it also kept people out of the city. People who live there left to places where they either felt safer or less restricted, and people who would normally visit stayed away either for safety or because there was nothing to do (no shows or games, nowhere to eat, hang out, etc.).

At a certain point, however, the tide does begin to turn. Restrictions in NY are easing, so many people who left town are returning. As the numbers rise around the rest of the country, their restrictions get tighter, and people start traveling to less restrictive locales they deem to be safer, such as a place which looks to be passed it's outbreak. In this regard, we're seeing a reverse of what happened in Florida during NY's peak. A quick look at TSA's checkpoint numbers in conjunction with the surge of new positive cases will tell you that greater spread is coming. TSA logged an average of around 575k passengers in the last 14 days. The 14 days before, they averaged about 440k, and the 14 days before that they averaged just over 300K daily travelers. That's an increase of almost 90% from a month ago. When infections get reintroduced into the NY metro area, and they coincide with the reopening of higher risk public spaces, the numbers are guaranteed to go up. This is being played out on a smaller scale in Lakewood, and I would be shocked not to hear of more such cases in other NY/NJ communities over the next couple of weeks.

Additionally, a theory bandied about here which I subscribe to is the weather factor. As long as the weather in nice and people can be outdoors, I think spread is somewhat limited. However, with hotter and more humid conditions, people will look to move to indoor air conditioned spaces. Combine that with a declining amount of people taking precautions, either because of a false sense of security from low numbers over the last month, or because of quarantine fatigue, and you're creating optimal conditions for a spike in spread. Of note, today NY recorded their highest new positive count since 6/2. I don't think that's an anomaly; I think it's the start of a new upward trend.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on July 02, 2020, 07:04:14 PM
That's what I thought you were thinking, but I think it's wrong.  I think the lines should be drawn around all the people who are in physical proximity, so if your neighbor's mother-in-law lives with them, and has a non-Jewish health care aide who comes every day, and your other neighbor works every day in an office with a non-Jewish coworker, and you mix with those neighbors in shul and shopping, then the community of people who can be potentially infected and transmit the disease would have to include all those people, Jews and non-Jews. 

But I'm not at all sure about this, so I'm going to go read about herd immunity and see if I learn anything worthwhile.
I would consider most of those to be herd interactions with people outside the herd.
Of note, today NY recorded their highest new positive count since 6/2. I don't think that's an anomaly; I think it's the start of a new upward trend.
The question is, is the increase due to community spread or new cases coming back from Florida.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Moshe123 on July 02, 2020, 07:38:50 PM
The nature is that our herd immunity is effective, even if the surrounding area isn't as immune.
In places where the virus tends to spread, we're mostly with the same type of people of the herd. Shul, simchos, tons of workplaces, restaurants etc.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 02, 2020, 08:08:59 PM
The question is, is the increase due to community spread or new cases coming back from Florida.

Does it matter? They could originate in FL, CA, TX, AZ, or NJ. Once you have infected people walking around within the community, the people they infect is the start of community spread. If there are more infected people on the streets of NY right now than there were 2 weeks ago, which I believe there are, then a rise in infections is very likely coming. I say watch the next 10 days because it will give a good idea of how the July 4th weekend will impact the spread, similar to what we saw nationwide after Memorial Day weekend.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 02, 2020, 08:12:30 PM
I would consider most of those to be herd interactions with people outside the herd.

My question is, how many of those interactions before the herd is no longer a herd, but part of a greater community? If I stop at the same Wawa 10 miles from my house every day, and I interact with the cashier more than anyone on my block, who's my herd?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Kobe bryent on July 02, 2020, 10:11:58 PM
similar to what we saw nationwide after Memorial Day weekend.
When mass protests of thousands of people took to the streets.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 02, 2020, 10:28:39 PM
When mass protests of thousands of people took to the streets.

Political rhetoric aside, most spread now is being traced back to bars, restaurants, gyms, and other indoor gatherings.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on July 02, 2020, 10:57:01 PM
When mass protests of thousands of people took to the streets.
Why didn't NYC or Chicago have massive spikes since they had larger protests? Try using common sense.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Euclid on July 02, 2020, 11:28:05 PM
BREAKING: I have a reliable report that there seems to be a COVID resurgence beginning in Lakewood. Five frum community members tested positive yesterday, and 5 new cases are pending today. A FRUM MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY IS NOW IN THE ICU. Another frum man, from Florida, worked in a large Lakewood day camp and had close contact with many people, and he just tested positive.

Guys, it's crazy how we are throwing caution to the wind. This seems to be a major issue. Please spread the word to anyone you know, so that they can take all needed precautions.
There are currently 8 positives with 2 pending. The person in the ICU has tested negative for Covid. As per Dr. Friedman of CHEMED (who has been collating the cases in Lakewood.)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 03, 2020, 01:19:08 AM
https://anash.org/badatz-urge-strict-compliance-of-new-guidelines/
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Proisrael on July 03, 2020, 03:10:12 AM
There are currently 8 positives with 2 pending. The person in the ICU has tested negative for Covid. As per Dr. Friedman of CHEMED (who has been collating the cases in Lakewood.)

The fact that absolutely nobody wears masks in Lakewood means this can spiral extremely fast out of control. Very sad.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on July 03, 2020, 04:14:40 AM
The fact that absolutely nobody wears masks in Lakewood means this can spiral extremely fast out of control. Very sad.
Or that Lakewood residents  have taken the position that there is little risk of it quickly spiraling out of control into a massive wave in Lakewood. A far more reasonable position in my opinion.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on July 03, 2020, 07:34:11 AM
Or that Lakewood residents  have taken the position that there is little risk of it quickly spiraling out of control into a massive wave in Lakewood. A far more reasonable position in my opinion.
Or the most reasonable position, which is that the reality falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: B.D.Da'ehu on July 03, 2020, 07:37:15 AM
Or the most reasonable position, which is that the reality falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes
+1000


The all or nothing mentality is ridiculous.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on July 03, 2020, 08:15:12 AM
Or the most reasonable position, which is that the reality falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes
You need to ask yourself if your extreme position is wrong what will the cost to human life be?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: moko on July 03, 2020, 08:19:57 AM
You need to ask yourself if your extreme position is wrong what will the cost to human life be?
you may as well just post the hamster wheel instead of a written response
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: CountValentine on July 03, 2020, 08:24:46 AM
you may as well just post the hamster wheel instead of a written response
If I get one person to think about it then it was worth it but just in case.  :)
(https://i.postimg.cc/dVrdgWCx/Secondhand-Easy-Azurevase-size-restricted.gif)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 03, 2020, 08:51:05 AM
Or that Lakewood residents  have taken the position that there is little risk of it quickly spiraling out of control into a massive wave in Lakewood. A far more reasonable position in my opinion.

Tell me, how do you define "massive wave?" Does more than 50% of any given population need to get it in order to qualify? What about 10% of a very large population? And what if it doesn't spiral quickly? What if it takes a couple of months? Is that acceptable?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on July 03, 2020, 09:08:33 AM
Tell me, how do you define "massive wave?" Does more than 50% of any given population need to get it in order to qualify? What about 10% of a very large population? And what if it doesn't spiral quickly? What if it takes a couple of months? Is that acceptable?
Was just responding to
this can spiral extremely fast out of control. Very sad.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 03, 2020, 09:14:07 AM
Was just responding to

I understand. I'm trying to understand what your parameters are for "spiraling" into a "massive" second wave. When do you think Lakewood residents should start to get concerned?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on July 03, 2020, 10:19:00 AM
I understand. I'm trying to understand what your parameters are for "spiraling" into a "massive" second wave. When do you think Lakewood residents should start to get concerned?
I donít know that there is a clear number but to me evidence of community spread, particularly secondary community spread, meaning locally contacted virus spreading to other Lakewood residents in several different settings (not residents contracting it outside of Lakewood) or a number of individuals (not 4 or 5) contacting it from another locally contracted case at even one community event would indicate a need for concern and further precautions. At that point elderly and immunocompromised should be taking strict measures. If we were to see incidence of spread beyond that, particularly coupled with several hospital transports, that would signal the potential beginning of a wave necessitating strict community wide measures. The frum healthcare providers are very coordinated at this point and real time information should be available fairly quickly unlike what we saw before pesach.

Conversely, multiple individuals contracting the virus outside of Lakewood is not particularly  concerning since it does not call the premise of herd immunity or near herd immunity in Lakewood into question.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 03, 2020, 10:32:17 AM
Conversely, multiple individuals contracting the virus outside of Lakewood is not particularly  concerning since it does not call the premise of herd immunity or near herd immunity in Lakewood into question.

Have you seen the data and community warnings that have come out of CH this week regarding reinfections?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on July 03, 2020, 10:45:00 AM
What if it takes a couple of months? Is that acceptable?
That leaves more than enough time to change course if the situation warrants it.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 03, 2020, 10:51:39 AM
That leaves more than enough time to change course if the situation warrants it.

It seems like the main concern isn't people getting sick, since the fatality rate is relatively low and long-term damage is just a theory for now. CMIIW, but the 2 main concerns I'm seeing from you and @Yard sale are a massive wave overwhelming the healthcare system, and enough spread to trigger another lockdown. So my question is, when do the flags go up?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: thaber on July 03, 2020, 10:53:21 AM
Only as a part of a much bigger picture. Hate 'em or hate 'em, NY's restrictions effectively lowered the number of active infections to a point where spread became minimal. Not only did it keep hotspots from sprouting (bars, restaurants, churches, etc.), but it also kept people out of the city. People who live there left to places where they either felt safer or less restricted, and people who would normally visit stayed away either for safety or because there was nothing to do (no shows or games, nowhere to eat, hang out, etc.).

At a certain point, however, the tide does begin to turn. Restrictions in NY are easing, so many people who left town are returning. As the numbers rise around the rest of the country, their restrictions get tighter, and people start traveling to less restrictive locales they deem to be safer, such as a place which looks to be passed it's outbreak. In this regard, we're seeing a reverse of what happened in Florida during NY's peak. A quick look at TSA's checkpoint numbers in conjunction with the surge of new positive cases will tell you that greater spread is coming. TSA logged an average of around 575k passengers in the last 14 days. The 14 days before, they averaged about 440k, and the 14 days before that they averaged just over 300K daily travelers. That's an increase of almost 90% from a month ago. When infections get reintroduced into the NY metro area, and they coincide with the reopening of higher risk public spaces, the numbers are guaranteed to go up. This is being played out on a smaller scale in Lakewood, and I would be shocked not to hear of more such cases in other NY/NJ communities over the next couple of weeks.

Additionally, a theory bandied about here which I subscribe to is the weather factor. As long as the weather in nice and people can be outdoors, I think spread is somewhat limited. However, with hotter and more humid conditions, people will look to move to indoor air conditioned spaces. Combine that with a declining amount of people taking precautions, either because of a false sense of security from low numbers over the last month, or because of quarantine fatigue, and you're creating optimal conditions for a spike in spread. Of note, today NY recorded their highest new positive count since 6/2. I don't think that's an anomaly; I think it's the start of a new upward trend.
This is what happened in California. Restrictions were quicker and tighter to begin with and there was much less of a first wave as a result. But now that restrictions have loosened the second wave is bigger than Chicago or NY where the first wave was much harder hitting.
However, the frum community, which was hit pretty strongly in the first is so far having a light second. And the general community doesn't seem as severe per capita, presumably the medical community is better equipped for this knowledge wise
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 03, 2020, 10:59:20 AM
This is what happened in California. Restrictions were quicker and tighter to begin with and there was much less of a first wave as a result. But now that restrictions have loosened the second wave is bigger than Chicago or NY where the first wave was much harder hitting.
However, the frum community, which was hit pretty strongly in the first is so far having a light second. And the general community doesn't seem as severe per capita, presumably the medical community is better equipped for this knowledge wise

Right, and this was a hugely underrated benefit of early restrictions. If CA's positives had happened at the same time as NY's when the medical knowledge was minimal, the results would have been catastrophic. Hopefully the residual health impacts on individuals is minimal, limiting the damage of this current surge.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on July 03, 2020, 11:27:45 AM
It seems like the main concern isn't people getting sick, since the fatality rate is relatively low and long-term damage is just a theory for now. CMIIW, but the 2 main concerns I'm seeing from you and @Yard sale are a massive wave overwhelming the healthcare system, and enough spread to trigger another lockdown. So my question is, when do the flags go up?
To be honest I donít think overwhelming the healthcare system would be the only concern or even the primary concern where there to be  a massive wave. The sheer number of those infected would concern me despite the ultra low fatality rate among the general population since it would increase the likelihood of those who are at risk unwittingly coming into contact with infected individuals  despite taking strict precautions. At some  point you have such significant prevalence of disease that itís almost impossible for those who are vulnerable to avoid some contact.  I simply donít see any indication of Lakewood getting there at this point. You never want to deal with a massive wave after it has already occurred. You always want to be ahead of the game. The question is when it is reasonable to start being concerned.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 03, 2020, 11:32:16 AM
You never want to deal with a massive wave after it has already occurred. You always want to be ahead of the game. The question is when it is reasonable to start being concerned.

So is it reasonable to take some precautions now to help minimize the chances of infections happening? Similar to speed limits, seat belts, and DUI checkpoints to help keep driving safer?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on July 03, 2020, 11:44:44 AM
Deaths are starting to spike in AZ, FL, TX, and a chart showing comparing changes in test count vs new case count in all 3 states.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 03, 2020, 11:48:59 AM
Deaths are starting to spike in AZ, FL, TX, and a chart showing comparing changes in test count vs new case count in all 3 states.

The case count data is actually worse, since the data stops on June 20-23, and the daily new positives have broken records multiple times in those states since then.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on July 03, 2020, 11:49:05 AM
So is it reasonable to take some precautions now to help minimize the chances of infections happening? Similar to speed limits, seat belts, and DUI checkpoints to help keep driving safer?
I would think cost/benefit is the way to go. We would never institute DUI checks every two blocks on a semi permanent basis even though it would certainly  save some lives. If there was a rampant epidemic of drunk driving  we probably would. At this point I think the risk is negligible enough that only  easy trade-offs are warranted. Telling everyone to daven outside in the yards is not proportionate. Telling everyone to wear masks all the time even if they feel uncomfortable is not proportionate. Avoiding venues where thousands of people will be together where there are reasonable alternatives or avoiding substantial crowds in areas where there are particular vulnerabilities such as  long-term care settings seems like a reasonable precaution at this point. I realize this is subjective and that others may have a different subjective opinion of what is reasonable at this point.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: chevron on July 03, 2020, 11:57:45 AM
Many people have accepted the fact that getting it is invitable

The vaccine news is slow. It's just impossible to lock everyone in, as fatality rates thank God drop, I think people are worried but resigned.

I think people are thinking that they're going to get it anyways so white lock themselves up for 6 months to a year
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 03, 2020, 12:13:19 PM
I would think cost/benefit is the way to go. We would never institute DUI checks every two blocks on a semi permanent basis even though it would certainly  save some lives. If there was a rampant epidemic of drunk driving  we probably would.

So if there were bars in surrounding areas that were notorious for drunk drivers, it would be reasonable to set up DUI checkpoints to keep them from driving on your neighborhood's streets?

Avoiding venues where thousands of people will be together where there are reasonable alternatives or avoiding substantial crowds in areas where there are particular vulnerabilities such as  long-term care settings seems like a reasonable precaution at this point.

An infected person is indoors with no masks or social distancing with 100 other people, let's say in a shul, and let's assume 50% were previously infected and their immunity has not run out yet. If even 10 people catch it from that person, and they go out into the community, what are the chances it can be stopped before it gets to your threshold of acceptable cases and you're no longer ahead of the game?

I realize this is subjective and that others may have a different subjective opinion of what is reasonable at this point.

Absolutely. I'm just trying to figure out how you plan on staying ahead of the game. This thing moves pretty fast.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 03, 2020, 12:16:15 PM
Many people have accepted the fact that getting it is invitable

The vaccine news is slow. It's just impossible to lock everyone in, as fatality rates thank God drop, I think people are worried but resigned.

I think people are thinking that they're going to get it anyways so white lock themselves up for 6 months to a year

Fatalism. I'm not sure what Judaism's take on that is.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Afrages6 on July 03, 2020, 12:33:14 PM
Fatalism. I'm not sure what Judaism's take on that is.
Would be nice if we heard half as much about this as we do about fancy weddings
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on July 03, 2020, 12:43:56 PM
Would be nice if we heard half as much about this as we do about fancy weddings
Are you referring to bitachon and hishtadlus?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: ExGingi on July 26, 2020, 09:17:24 PM
I start feeling like there's a 2nd wave of COVID-19 fight news (I.e. Headlines being recycled after being in the news months ago, such as blood type, vitamin D, etc).
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on July 27, 2020, 02:00:31 PM
Israels new cases are almost all asymptomatic or extremely light. There was a slight uptick in ventilators and severe cases but they have come down over the past few days. 

Regardless the country is running like normal with even trains and theaters reopening again. If people are smart enough to keep their masks on the numbers will slow. Most of the spread has been from the reopening of schools. They are closing next week for summer vacation. I would expect the numbers to peak mid next week and then fall fast back to under 200.

I see the reality on the ground here in Israel. They speak for themselves.

Perhaps your vision isn't as great as you think it is
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: jose34 on July 27, 2020, 02:56:52 PM

Perhaps your vision isn't as great as you think it is
Took much longer for cases to get serious than the first wave though.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on July 27, 2020, 04:18:47 PM
Took much longer for cases to get serious than the first wave though.
When do you consider the first wave to have started?
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: jose34 on July 27, 2020, 06:13:23 PM
When do you consider the first wave to have started?
Right after Purim. By Pesach things were crazy but after that things started getting in control.

The in-between came a little after Shavous.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on July 27, 2020, 06:20:01 PM
Right after Purim. By Pesach things were crazy but after that things started getting in control.

The in-between came a little after Shavous.

The peak was between Purim and Pesach. It started way before then.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on July 29, 2020, 02:33:39 PM
Early signs of a new wave in NJ? New cases have more than doubled over the last 5 days.

(https://i.postimg.cc/FsyJ55tH/Screen-Shot-2020-07-29-at-1-42-43-PM.png) (https://postimages.org/)

Compared to NY which is still trending down.

(https://i.postimg.cc/q7Rt3NNN/Screen-Shot-2020-07-29-at-1-46-51-PM.png) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on July 29, 2020, 02:47:11 PM
I just don't get how NY has been so static at 6-800 cases a day for so long
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on July 29, 2020, 04:53:25 PM
Early signs of a new wave in NJ? New cases have more than doubled over the last 5 days.

(https://i.postimg.cc/FsyJ55tH/Screen-Shot-2020-07-29-at-1-42-43-PM.png) (https://postimages.org/)

Compared to NY which is still trending down.

(https://i.postimg.cc/q7Rt3NNN/Screen-Shot-2020-07-29-at-1-46-51-PM.png) (https://postimages.org/)
Something to keep an eye on. Keep in mind that daily tests have gone up and the positivity rate has not budged that much so likely some increase, but the doubled numbers should be taken in context.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on July 30, 2020, 12:45:31 AM
Something to keep an eye on. Keep in mind that daily tests have gone up and the positivity rate has not budged that much so likely some increase, but the doubled numbers should be taken in context.

That's not what I'm seeing on a couple sites. Covidtracking (https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-jersey#historical) shows tests have gone down recently before going back to normal the last couple days. And NJ state data is showing down trends as well. https://www.state.nj.us/health/cd/documents/topics/NCOV/COVID_Confirmed_Case_Summary.pdf

2 things are clear from either source. The testing rate hasn't doubled and testing is not at its peak.


(https://i.postimg.cc/cL6gjqkg/Screen-Shot-2020-07-29-at-3-44-31-PM.png) (https://postimages.org/)


(https://i.postimg.cc/T3Zw4KWF/Screen-Shot-2020-07-29-at-3-35-14-PM.png) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Moshe123 on July 30, 2020, 07:34:18 AM
My neighbor in shul had Corona with everyone 4.5 months ago and had tested positive at the time.
Last week he had surgery for something and needed to get tested beforehand. Test was positive... It's obviously remnants and I think chances are that a big part of the positives in the Tristate area are of similar nature.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on July 30, 2020, 07:10:35 PM
Early signs of a new wave in NJ? New cases have more than doubled over the last 5 days.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/nyregion/coronavirus-cases-nj.html
Title: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Euclid on July 31, 2020, 01:22:53 PM
Early signs of a new wave in NJ? New cases have more than doubled over the last 5 days.

(https://i.postimg.cc/FsyJ55tH/Screen-Shot-2020-07-29-at-1-42-43-PM.png) (https://postimages.org/)

Compared to NY which is still trending down.

(https://i.postimg.cc/q7Rt3NNN/Screen-Shot-2020-07-29-at-1-46-51-PM.png) (https://postimages.org/)



Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Euclid on August 02, 2020, 05:27:32 PM
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: avromie7 on August 03, 2020, 09:28:32 AM
You can't ignore the fact that there were thousands of additional tests administered. I would love to see the positivity rate, it's probably lower than it's been recently.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: aygart on August 03, 2020, 09:31:39 AM
You can't ignore the fact that there were thousands of additional tests administered. I would love to see the positivity rate, it's probably lower than it's been recently.

Almost all needed results before the middle of last week.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on September 17, 2020, 12:49:23 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/europe/coronavirus-europe-who-second-wave-intl/index.html

Yep.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Ergel on September 17, 2020, 01:59:56 PM
Rachmana Litzlan
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on September 17, 2020, 04:17:14 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/europe/coronavirus-europe-who-second-wave-intl/index.html

Yep.
I was beginning to think there was a second wave until the WHO claimed there was.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on September 17, 2020, 04:20:01 PM
I was beginning to think there was a second wave until the WHO claimed there was.

Generally the WHO gets things late, not completely wrong.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Yard sale on September 17, 2020, 04:30:06 PM
Generally the WHO gets things late, not completely wrong.
Tip of the iceberg
?s=20
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: Lurker on September 17, 2020, 05:47:08 PM
Tip of the iceberg
?s=20

This is one of those things I'd consider late. They relied on the Chinese, and then changed (too late) once they investigated for themselves.

Just to clarify: I've been on record here as not being a fan of the WHO. I'm still not a fan. But if it's independently verifiable, it's not wrong just because they said it, too.
Title: Re: Is there a second wave?
Post by: yuneeq on September 17, 2020, 08:53:19 PM
Generally the WHO gets things late, not completely wrong.

Iíd say both are about even