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DansDeals Forum => COVID-19 Discussion Board => Topic started by: devorahS on July 19, 2020, 10:49:37 AM

Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: devorahS on July 19, 2020, 10:49:37 AM
Are there people in Lakewood with new cases of the virus? 
Seems like everyone wants to keep to the narrative that it's over and covers up the true statistics.

Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on July 19, 2020, 10:53:13 AM
Are there people in Lakewood with new cases of the virus? 
Seems like everyone wants to keep to the narrative that it's over and covers up the true statistics.
There have been about 20 new cases over the past 2-3 weeks in our community according to CHEMED (they're tracking all cases in our community).
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: rs242 on July 19, 2020, 11:08:04 AM
Are there people in Lakewood with new cases of the virus? 
Seems like everyone wants to keep to the narrative that it's over and covers up the true statistics.
There is a nasty cold going around, I had it and tested negative for Covid.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on July 19, 2020, 01:16:47 PM
There have been about 20 new cases over the past 2-3 weeks in our community according to CHEMED (they're tracking all cases in our community).
It also seems that CHEMED is doing rigorous contact tracing, which is fantastic.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ari3 on July 19, 2020, 07:57:59 PM
There have been about 20 new cases over the past 2-3 weeks in our community according to CHEMED (they're tracking all cases in our community).
Additionally "Most, but not all, have been connected to infected individuals coming to Lakewood from Florida."
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: KSMH on July 19, 2020, 08:00:20 PM
Additionally "Most, but not all, have been connected to infected individuals coming to Lakewood from Florida."
It also seems that CHEMED is doing rigorous contact tracing, which is fantastic.
The last think someone would think of CHEMED is that they can do contact tracing, they are disastrous at whatever they do.

Happy a few ppl think otherwise but compared to other similar institutions, they deserve a negative rating.

They are disastrous!
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: lakewood34 on July 19, 2020, 09:35:15 PM
It also seems that CHEMED is doing rigorous contact tracing, which is fantastic.
pretty much any male will have contact with close to 100 people minimum between minyanim etc.
also chemed is taking so long for the corona tests to come back that contact tracing is worthless
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jellybelly on July 19, 2020, 10:09:39 PM
I find it a pretty funny that one guy thinks Chemed is doing fantastic and the next guy thinks theyíre disastrous, and theyíre both so confident about it. That basically sums up Corona In 1 sentence.í
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: KSMH on July 19, 2020, 10:35:41 PM
pretty much any male will have contact with close to 100 people minimum between minyanim etc.
also chemed is taking so long for the corona tests to come back that contact tracing is worthless
+1
I find it a pretty funny that one guy thinks Chemed is doing fantastic and the next guy thinks theyíre disastrous, and theyíre both so confident about it. That basically sums up Corona In 1 sentence.í
Lol.

Its actually 2>1 at this point.

In summary, CHEMED as a whole is a disaster. From people that I did hear say positive stuff, the positivity was related to DR. Hirsch Zatzal.
I dont say it lightly, but the org. itself is disastrous, sadly.

Its really a shame as they can do so much more and not do some parts and they can be great.

It's all about the money.

Refuah and others  might be about the money but it's also about the patient.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Hjay on July 19, 2020, 10:48:26 PM
Not sure how it would be possible for them to do contact tracing. A family member of mine tested there on Thursday a week and a half ago & got a call this Sunday morning with the results & they donít have the rapid testsÖ
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on July 19, 2020, 10:52:35 PM
I haven't heard anything about CHEMED doing contact tracing. What I do know that they are doing is they created a central database for all the medical practices in Lakewood to collect and collate any new cases.
This doesn't take any special medical knowledge or expertise, and whatever experience anyone has had with CHEMED shouldn't color their opinion of this good work.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Hjay on July 19, 2020, 10:56:46 PM
I haven't heard anything about CHEMED doing contact tracing. What I do know that they are doing is they created a central database for all the medical practices in Lakewood to collect and collate any new cases.
This doesn't take any special medical knowledge or expertise, and whatever experience anyone has had with CHEMED shouldn't color their opinion of this good work.

I wonder what they considered Lakewood cases cuz I know some people came in from deal to get tested by friendlys cuz they knew they had rapids.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on July 19, 2020, 11:41:34 PM
The last think someone would think of CHEMED is that they can do contact tracing, they are disastrous at whatever they do.

Happy a few ppl think otherwise but compared to other similar institutions, they deserve a negative rating.

They are disastrous!
My daughter experienced it. I was surprised as well.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: koplonko on July 20, 2020, 10:23:45 AM
There is a nasty cold going around, I had it and tested negative for Covid.
same here, brooklyn
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jellybelly on July 28, 2020, 01:01:07 PM
Any update on numbers in lkwd? Hundreds of kids are getting tested now for camp....
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on July 28, 2020, 01:10:58 PM
Any update on numbers in lkwd? Hundreds of kids are getting tested now for camp....
As of last Friday morning there were 17 new cases that CHEMED was tracking since beginning of July.

I've heard that there were 8 new cases this week, but i haven't confirmed that with CHEMED info yet.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on July 28, 2020, 01:15:47 PM
1-2 frum cases a day would seem consistent with the picture weíve been seeing.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on July 28, 2020, 01:18:46 PM
1-2 frum cases a day would seem consistent with the picture weíve been seeing.
Yup, been hearing an average of "4-5/week".
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: grodnoking on July 28, 2020, 01:21:46 PM
I'm surprised there is not many more. Thousands of people have gotten the virus and people who are better can still test positive for months (my case was 3.5 months later!!!).
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on July 28, 2020, 01:28:57 PM
I'm surprised there is not many more. Thousands of people have gotten the virus and people who are better can still test positive for months (my case was 3.5 months later!!!).
CHEMED is only tracking legit *new* cases. Not people who test positive.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: grodnoking on July 28, 2020, 01:30:46 PM
CHEMED is only tracking legit *new* cases. Not people who test positive.
Aha. So these cases could also be a bunch of the people who got it in the beginning but never tested (till camp or whatever) and now are getting false positives.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: jackofall on July 28, 2020, 01:31:45 PM
Following
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on July 28, 2020, 01:31:55 PM
Aha. So these cases could also be a bunch of the people who got it in the beginning but never tested (till camp or whatever) and now are getting false positives.
No, CHEMED is tracking legitimately new cases. Not just a positive test.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: grodnoking on July 28, 2020, 01:33:02 PM
No, CHEMED is tracking legitimately new cases. Not just a positive test.
How do they know if the person just caught it, or if he is testing false positive for the first time even thou he is better now.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on July 28, 2020, 01:33:44 PM
How do they know if the person just caught it, or if he is testing false positive for the first time even thou he is better now.
They rely on the doctor reporting it to determine this.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jellybelly on August 02, 2020, 06:51:29 PM
Any update on numbers in lkwd? Hundreds of kids are getting tested now for camp....
Seems like there was/is a small jump
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 03, 2020, 08:43:54 AM
20 cases recorded in a day. My feeling is that it doesnít really change the overall picture. I still think indications are that Lakewood has some degree of herd immunity. Herd immunity does not mean that everyone in Lakewood is immune. It simply means that enough people are immune to prevent it from spreading exponentially.  It was always anticipated that there would be more cases among those who are not immune, especially as thousands of Lakewood residents are traveling and returning from all over the country where they are exposed to places where covid is still prevalent. However, 20 cases is something to take note of and  keep a watchful eye on the situation.

Hereís what I donít like: when the numbers are manipulated to suit a preconceived viewpoint. The data should be viewed objectively for what it is, not used to push one side of the story.

Take a look at the original archived story and the new one that replaced it:

http://archive.is/CVsc2#

https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/breaking-few-new-cases-in-lakewood-despite-thousands-of-recent-tests.html
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 03, 2020, 08:48:07 AM
20 cases recorded in a day. My feeling is that it doesnít really change the overall picture. I still think indications are that Lakewood has some degree of herd immunity. Herd immunity does not mean that everyone in Lakewood is immune. It simply means that enough people are immune to prevent it from spreading exponentially.  It was always anticipated that there would be more cases among those who are not immune, especially as thousands of Lakewood residents are traveling and returning from all over the country where they are exposed to places where covid is still prevalent. However, 20 cases is something to take note of and  keep a watchful eye on the situation.

Hereís what I donít like: when the numbers are manipulated to suit a preconceived viewpoint. The data should be viewed objectively for what it is, not used to push one side of the story.

Take a look at the original archived story and the new one that replaced it:

http://archive.is/CVsc2#

https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/breaking-few-new-cases-in-lakewood-despite-thousands-of-recent-tests.html

I wish people would understand this and take precautions instead of acting recklessly because of "herd immunity".

They don't even mention the spike in positives in the new article.

And how is the new article BREAKING news?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 03, 2020, 09:30:48 AM
Quote
Hereís what I donít like: when the numbers are manipulated to suit a preconceived viewpoint. The data should be viewed objectively for what it is, not used to push one side of the story.

Take a look at the original archived story and the new one that replaced it:

http://archive.is/CVsc2#

https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/breaking-few-new-cases-in-lakewood-despite-thousands-of-recent-tests.html
You're right, that's why they had to pull the original story that was missing critical information, like the fact that there were so many more tests given.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 03, 2020, 10:36:57 AM
You're right, that's why they had to pull the original story that was missing critical information, like the fact that there were so many more tests given.
But the original article does include that? All they did was REMOVE a critical fact that there were more positives.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 03, 2020, 12:12:31 PM
But the original article does include that?
No, and that was the issue.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 03, 2020, 12:25:06 PM
20 cases recorded in a day. My feeling is that it doesnít really change the overall picture. I still think indications are that Lakewood has some degree of herd immunity. Herd immunity does not mean that everyone in Lakewood is immune. It simply means that enough people are immune to prevent it from spreading exponentially.  It was always anticipated that there would be more cases among those who are not immune, especially as thousands of Lakewood residents are traveling and returning from all over the country where they are exposed to places where covid is still prevalent. However, 20 cases is something to take note of and  keep a watchful eye on the situation.

Hereís what I donít like: when the numbers are manipulated to suit a preconceived viewpoint. The data should be viewed objectively for what it is, not used to push one side of the story.

Take a look at the original archived story and the new one that replaced it:

http://archive.is/CVsc2#

https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/breaking-few-new-cases-in-lakewood-despite-thousands-of-recent-tests.html
The number of cases has been revised from 20 down to 8.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 03, 2020, 12:33:22 PM
No, and that was the issue.
The archived link most definitely does include that.
Quote
Some say, however, that the spike in new cases in Lakewood are simply due to massive numbers of Coronavirus tests having taken place...
(sic)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Mikeoracle on August 12, 2020, 05:04:10 PM
Hi,
I want to share my story as a data point and maybe it will help someone (I may xpost for visibility);
On Monday 8/10 I tested positive for Covid. It seems pretty clear that I was infected at a simcha last week, either at the Aufruf or at the Wedding last Tuesday 8/4. I started not feeling well on Thursday morning but thought it was just allergies or a cold, which i deal with often. I felt a little bit better friday night and shabbos morning and went to a small local minyan in my neighborhood, but by shabbos afternoon I was in bed.
I only found out on Monday 8/10 that there were a lot of people not feeling well from that simcha and testing positive, so I quickly went to get tested (in Friendly Urgent Care). They told me there were a few positive tests within that last hour, one of them I know is a relative of mine who was also at the wedding. They indicated that there seems to be at least 2 or more wedding this past week that are at the center of a bunch of positive cases.
I quickly notified whoever I was in contact with, but so for unfortunately at least 3 people got infected by me. This is by far the worst feeling for me, worse than actually being sick. I wish everyone would be as quick to alert people as I was- as I would likely have been able to avoid infecting anyone, and would have taken precautions as soon as I felt sick.

There is definitely an outbreak right now, which will hopefully subside quickly if people take precautions, it just pains me that people didnt feel "shame" or whatever it is, that stops them from reacting responsibly right away.
This is affecting people in Lakewood, Monsey and Boro park (and catskills of course) who were at the is wedding, and some of the other weddings that were affected (infected?).

If you are a high risk person, you should be extra careful for the next little while (at minimum).

p.s. it is extra frustrating as my family was so careful for such a long time. I refused to daven indoors, for a long time and was made fun of because of that.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 12, 2020, 07:46:02 PM
Actually itís likely that precisely because you were so careful you were still vulnerable to being infected. Iíd like to know how many of those infected were similarly careful or live in places other than Lakewood...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 12, 2020, 08:23:46 PM


Iíd like to know how many of those infected were similarly careful or live in places other than Lakewood...
I'm sure all but still fact is there were plenty of people who were careful and now are still susceptible of getting it and passing it on.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 15, 2020, 10:20:26 PM
Hi,
I want to share my story as a data point and maybe it will help someone (I may xpost for visibility);
On Monday 8/10 I tested positive for Covid. It seems pretty clear that I was infected at a simcha last week, either at the Aufruf or at the Wedding last Tuesday 8/4. I started not feeling well on Thursday morning but thought it was just allergies or a cold, which i deal with often. I felt a little bit better friday night and shabbos morning and went to a small local minyan in my neighborhood, but by shabbos afternoon I was in bed.
I only found out on Monday 8/10 that there were a lot of people not feeling well from that simcha and testing positive, so I quickly went to get tested (in Friendly Urgent Care). They told me there were a few positive tests within that last hour, one of them I know is a relative of mine who was also at the wedding. They indicated that there seems to be at least 2 or more wedding this past week that are at the center of a bunch of positive cases.
I quickly notified whoever I was in contact with, but so for unfortunately at least 3 people got infected by me. This is by far the worst feeling for me, worse than actually being sick. I wish everyone would be as quick to alert people as I was- as I would likely have been able to avoid infecting anyone, and would have taken precautions as soon as I felt sick.

There is definitely an outbreak right now, which will hopefully subside quickly if people take precautions, it just pains me that people didnt feel "shame" or whatever it is, that stops them from reacting responsibly right away.
This is affecting people in Lakewood, Monsey and Boro park (and catskills of course) who were at the is wedding, and some of the other weddings that were affected (infected?).

If you are a high risk person, you should be extra careful for the next little while (at minimum).

p.s. it is extra frustrating as my family was so careful for such a long time. I refused to daven indoors, for a long time and was made fun of because of that.
Assuming this is your family.


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Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Mikeoracle on August 15, 2020, 10:45:15 PM
Assuming this is your family.


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This is either another family/situation, or info is all wrong.
In Lakewood there are less 12 of my family members that are positive and I personally know of more than 4 non family members that got infected by us
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 15, 2020, 10:47:21 PM
This is either another family/situation, or info is all wrong.
In Lakewood there are less 12 of my family members that are positive and I personally know of more than 4 non family members that got infected by us
these reports are daily numbers, if different family member were tested on different days the results would be released on different days.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 15, 2020, 10:50:55 PM
This is either another family/situation, or info is all wrong.
In Lakewood there are less 12 of my family members that are positive and I personally know of more than 4 non family members that got infected by us
Maybe he means 12 are traced back to a single situation?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jellybelly on August 15, 2020, 11:03:49 PM
Were the total numbers up a lot last week?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 15, 2020, 11:06:01 PM
Were the total numbers up a lot last week?
16 cases on Thursday from OCHD (for what that's worth). Chemed reporting 12 cases from our community over the past week, which is a spike according to them. 
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: YitzyS on August 15, 2020, 11:52:08 PM
Maybe he means 12 are traced back to a single situation?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: how on August 16, 2020, 01:19:10 AM
This is either another family/situation, or info is all wrong.
In Lakewood there are less 12 of my family members that are positive and I personally know of more than 4 non family members that got infected by us
how are you feeling?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Mikeoracle on August 16, 2020, 11:37:52 AM
how are you feeling?
I'm not sure where he is getting his information, as far as I know, no one has checked in on how we are feeling, so how are they reporting "mild symptoms"...
Also I'm not sure how to define mild to moderate. Personally I've been sick since Thursday 11 days ago (hasn't gotten better yet), I don't wish this upon anyone. I'm dealing with a bad cough, aches, weakness, chills (flu like)... No appetite. I still have my taste and smell B"h, although my wife lost hers and is just starting to get it back.
My wife and cousins have it a lot milder than me.
Some People that got infected by me are also pretty sick.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jellybelly on August 16, 2020, 11:51:19 AM
Are you checking your oxygen levels?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 16, 2020, 12:07:22 PM
I'm not sure where he is getting his information, as far as I know, no one has checked in on how we are feeling, so how are they reporting "mild symptoms"...
Also I'm not sure how to define mild to moderate. Personally I've been sick since Thursday 11 days ago (hasn't gotten better yet), I don't wish this upon anyone. I'm dealing with a bad cough, aches, weakness, chills (flu like)... No appetite. I still have my taste and smell B"h, although my wife lost hers and is just starting to get it back.
My wife and cousins have it a lot milder than me.
Some People that got infected by me are also pretty sick.
Iím assuming they are referring to respiratory distress etc. rather than level of uncomfortability.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Mikeoracle on August 16, 2020, 12:08:33 PM
Are you checking your oxygen levels?
yes, B"h our levels are fine
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 16, 2020, 12:10:20 PM
Are you checking your oxygen levels?
Second that. Itís a good idea to let the other know to get a hold of a pulse oximeter and test sporadically. Low oxygen levels can be present without acute symptoms. Bikur cholim should have. Refuah sheleimah.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: moish on August 16, 2020, 05:16:27 PM
Second that. Itís a good idea to let the other know to get a hold of a pulse oximeter and test sporadically. Low oxygen levels can be present without acute symptoms. Bikur cholim should have. Refuah sheleimah.
Why test sporadically? They should be monitoring it on a constant basis
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: how on August 16, 2020, 10:12:47 PM
I'm not sure where he is getting his information, as far as I know, no one has checked in on how we are feeling, so how are they reporting "mild symptoms"...
Also I'm not sure how to define mild to moderate. Personally I've been sick since Thursday 11 days ago (hasn't gotten better yet), I don't wish this upon anyone. I'm dealing with a bad cough, aches, weakness, chills (flu like)... No appetite. I still have my taste and smell B"h, although my wife lost hers and is just starting to get it back.
My wife and cousins have it a lot milder than me.
Some People that got infected by me are also pretty sick.
sounds like the real deal. Temp? Keep a regular eye on saturation
רפואה שלימה בקרוב
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Deal Guy on August 16, 2020, 10:35:18 PM
Do you guys have a good idea who you caught it from?
Was that person feeling somewhat sick and decided that he needs to attend the wedding?

Weddings are usually held in large halls. Where you guys right on top of each other that a number of you caught it?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 16, 2020, 10:38:59 PM
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/devorah-wahl-124a7899_coronastories-covid19-activity-6700829172564017152-sUkH/
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 17, 2020, 12:13:53 AM
From what I hear it sounds like one of the weddings was a chosson and kallah who were not from Lakewood who were symptomatic before the wedding but decided to go ahead with the wedding anyway. They then took part in their large shabbos sheva berachos which had a large number of attendees. It sounds like many if not most of the infections were from those two events. Can anyone confirm?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: how on August 17, 2020, 12:47:48 AM
From what I hear it sounds like one of the weddings was a chosson and kallah who were not from Lakewood who were symptomatic before the wedding but decided to go ahead with the wedding anyway. They then took part in their large shabbos sheva berachos which had a large number of attendees. It sounds like many if not most of the infections were from those two events. Can anyone confirm?
one of the Lakewood weddings I heard about the out of town chosson kallah got infected at the wedding from a guest.
M/O was infected at a wedding in BP
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Dawie on August 17, 2020, 01:19:43 PM
From what I hear it sounds like one of the weddings was a chosson and kallah who were not from Lakewood who were symptomatic before the wedding but decided to go ahead with the wedding anyway. They then took part in their large shabbos sheva berachos which had a large number of attendees. It sounds like many if not most of the infections were from those two events. Can anyone confirm?
unless there were two super spreader chasuna's of out of town people, it wasn't the bride and groom
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 18, 2020, 05:28:08 PM
OCHD reporting +23 positives today.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: YitzyS on August 18, 2020, 05:30:17 PM
OCHD reporting +23 positives today.
And tomorrow, -19.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 18, 2020, 05:31:21 PM
And tomorrow, -19.
Based on all the anecdotal evidence, highly doubtful.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 18, 2020, 05:32:36 PM
Based on all the anecdotal evidence, highly doubtful.
Based on their track record, very likely.
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 18, 2020, 05:34:07 PM
Based on their track record, very likely.
These numbers are in line with what I've been hearing (Chemed, acquaintances etc.). There's definitely a spike happening right now in Lakewood.

I'm using OCHD to confirm the anecdotes. I know their numbers are notoriously unreliable. 
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 18, 2020, 06:08:15 PM
These numbers are in line with what I've been hearing (Chemed, acquaintances etc.). There's definitely a spike happening right now in Lakewood.

I'm using OCHD to confirm the anecdotes. I know their numbers are notoriously unreliable.
The source of these seem to be another wedding.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 18, 2020, 10:14:35 PM
Hearing about a wedding that the kallah's family tested so a grandmother can come and the entire family including the kallah was positive so they cancelled and did backyard.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 18, 2020, 10:28:39 PM
Hearing about a wedding that the kallah's family tested so a grandmother can come and the entire family including the kallah was positive so they cancelled and did backyard.
Wonder if it's this one from last night. Moved from cheder to LTC parking lot because of a positive.


https://www.instagram.com/p/CEBCpKHFPjY/
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 18, 2020, 11:11:01 PM
Weddings appear to be a particularly significant issue in the frum community. We havenít really been seeing significant spread from shul reopenings, camps (for the most part), or school reopenings, or general relaxation of precautions to date. Wedding however are being repeatedly implicated in spread of covid. Perhaps this is because each wedding brings together the full spectrum of age groups and people from multiple social circles and regions in an indoor setting where there is a lot of physical contact and proximity to others.

The frum community really needs to address this in a proactive manner. Whether by means of testing the guests, especially those coming from high risk areas,  making the weddings smaller, or moving the most risky parts of the chasunah outdoors, it makes little sense to keep doing the status quo when it is obviously causing problems.

I donít see any evidence of widespread community spread in the hard hit frum areas so I donít agree with those who say we have to all wear masks and social distance in shul because you never know when there may be a second wave. But weddings are clearly an area where there is at least clear anecdotal evidence of covid spread, and some adjustment to the status quo is clearly appropriate.

Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 18, 2020, 11:16:37 PM
Weddings appear to be a particularly significant issue in the frum community. We havenít really been seeing significant spread from shul reopenings, camps (for the most part), or school reopenings, or general relaxation of precautions to date. Wedding however are being repeatedly implicated in spread of covid. Perhaps this is because each wedding brings together the full spectrum of age groups and people from multiple social circles and regions in an indoor setting where there is a lot of physical contact and proximity to others.

The frum community really needs to address this in a proactive manner. Whether by means of testing the guests, especially those coming from high risk areas,  making the weddings smaller, or moving the most risky parts of the chasunah outdoors, it makes little sense to keep doing the status quo when it is obviously causing problems.

I donít see any evidence of widespread community spread in the hard hit frum areas so I donít agree with those who say we have to all wear masks and social distance in shul because you never know when there may be a second wave. But weddings are clearly an area where there is at least clear anecdotal evidence of covid spread, and some adjustment to the status quo is clearly appropriate.
Well said. One of the Lakewood doctors sent out an email this week with a similar sentiment.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 18, 2020, 11:18:40 PM
Weddings appear to be a particularly significant issue in the frum community. We havenít really been seeing significant spread from shul reopenings, camps (for the most part), or school reopenings, or general relaxation of precautions to date. Wedding however are being repeatedly implicated in spread of covid. Perhaps this is because each wedding brings together the full spectrum of age groups and people from multiple social circles and regions in an indoor setting where there is a lot of physical contact and proximity to others.

The frum community really needs to address this in a proactive manner. Whether by means of testing the guests, especially those coming from high risk areas,  making the weddings smaller, or moving the most risky parts of the chasunah outdoors, it makes little sense to keep doing the status quo when it is obviously causing problems.

I donít see any evidence of widespread community spread in the hard hit frum areas so I donít agree with those who say we have to all wear masks and social distance in shul because you never know when there may be a second wave. But weddings are clearly an area where there is at least clear anecdotal evidence of covid spread, and some adjustment to the status quo is clearly appropriate.
Makes me think that my being in aveilus may be why I never caught it.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 18, 2020, 11:31:29 PM
Weddings appear to be a particularly significant issue in the frum community. We havenít really been seeing significant spread from shul reopenings, camps (for the most part), or school reopenings, or general relaxation of precautions to date. Wedding however are being repeatedly implicated in spread of covid. Perhaps this is because each wedding brings together the full spectrum of age groups and people from multiple social circles and regions in an indoor setting where there is a lot of physical contact and proximity to others.

The frum community really needs to address this in a proactive manner. Whether by means of testing the guests, especially those coming from high risk areas,  making the weddings smaller, or moving the most risky parts of the chasunah outdoors, it makes little sense to keep doing the status quo when it is obviously causing problems.

I donít see any evidence of widespread community spread in the hard hit frum areas so I donít agree with those who say we have to all wear masks and social distance in shul because you never know when there may be a second wave. But weddings are clearly an area where there is at least clear anecdotal evidence of covid spread, and some adjustment to the status quo is clearly appropriate.
Weddings cause a spread because theere are people coming in from out of towns communities and are giving it to people. Enough people had it that it won't really spread to far. But ya people should not invite guests coming from out of town communities that didn't really get hit like Baltimore. They all have it and just don't realize.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 18, 2020, 11:36:24 PM
Weddings cause a spread because theere are people coming in from out of towns communities and are giving it to people. Enough people had it that it won't really spread to far. But ya people should not invite guests coming from out of town communities that didn't really get hit like Baltimore. They all have it and just don't realize.
Or three are people who can get it a second time as discussed by the doctors in Crown Heights
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Baruch on August 18, 2020, 11:36:37 PM
Well said. One of the Lakewood doctors sent out an email this week with a similar sentiment.
Can u pls post
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 18, 2020, 11:39:17 PM
Or three are people who can get it a second time as discussed by the doctors in Crown Heights
Most people do not get it twice.... could some people that is above my pay grade..
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 18, 2020, 11:39:27 PM
Can u pls post
PM'd
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 18, 2020, 11:44:31 PM


Most people did not get it twice.... Will people that is above my pay grade..
FTFY

Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yehudaa on August 18, 2020, 11:51:10 PM
Weddings cause a spread because theere are people coming in from out of towns communities and are giving it to people. Enough people had it that it won't really spread to far. But ya people should not invite guests coming from out of town communities that didn't really get hit like Baltimore. They all Some have it and just don't realize.
FTFY
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: grodnoking on August 19, 2020, 09:06:57 AM
Or three are people who can get it a second time as discussed by the doctors in Crown Heights
I thought that they recently decided that it was most likely an anomaly.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 19, 2020, 09:15:43 AM
I thought that they recently decided that it was most likely an anomaly.
I believe that is the working medical theory, we'll only know for sure in a few months.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ckmk47 on August 19, 2020, 10:14:58 AM

Or there are people who can get it a second time as discussed by the doctors in Crown Heights
I thought that they recently decided that it was most likely an anomaly.
Same facts slightly different conclusions.
Rare but possible.
Thankfully milder cases than originally.

But it has implications.
Just because someone already had it and may even have antibodies, doesn't mean they can't get it and not realize it.  and pass it onto others.
Rare but possible.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Sam Finkelstein on August 19, 2020, 10:37:25 AM
Apparently the Old Shul is now requiring masks on the main level.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: gozalim on August 19, 2020, 11:11:28 AM
I thought that they recently decided that it was most likely an anomaly.
there were potential cases a month ago, which by a week ago seemed to be assumed an anomaly.
This week has a new outbreak, with more such cases and 'better documentation' that it is indeed reinfection, they're now questioning the assumption of it being an anomaly.
Essentially updating the guidance to be more wary even if previously infected
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: how on August 19, 2020, 11:43:56 AM
Personally I've been sick since Thursday 11 days ago (hasn't gotten better yet), I don't wish this upon anyone. I'm dealing with a bad cough, aches, weakness, chills (flu like)... No appetite.
how are you feeling?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Mikeoracle on August 19, 2020, 01:36:19 PM
how are you feeling?
B"H this morning I finally started feeling a bit better, with a bit more energy and a little bit less of the aches. Last few days were really rough. Today is day 14 since I started showing symptoms.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: how on August 19, 2020, 02:41:25 PM
B"H this morning I finally started feeling a bit better, with a bit more energy and a little bit less of the aches. Last few days were really rough. Today is day 14 since I started showing symptoms.
רפואהשלימה
glad to hear your on the mend
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: KSMH on August 19, 2020, 02:46:22 PM
B"H this morning I finally started feeling a bit better, with a bit more energy and a little bit less of the aches. Last few days were really rough. Today is day 14 since I started showing symptoms.
BH, know some ppl that it took them a full 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 19, 2020, 03:10:12 PM
+4 cases via OCHD. Let's hope it stays this way...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: nucheiner on August 19, 2020, 04:10:08 PM
Weddings cause a spread because theere are people coming in from out of towns communities and are giving it to people. Enough people had it that it won't really spread to far. But ya people should not invite guests coming from out of town communities that didn't really get hit like Baltimore. They all have it and just don't realize.
Shuls, camps , restaurants etc have been happening for months already with zero SD. Suddenly weddings are an issue. Only logical explanation is that Lakewood seems to have some level of herd immunity and/or even some negative antibodiers have some other immunity. Its the out of towners thrown in the mix who are both getting and spreading. One of the Lakewood spreader weddings was a Baltimore family.

But who knows.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 19, 2020, 04:17:26 PM
People keep saying that camps happened without any issues. That is categorically false. Many camps had outbreaks but decided not to do anything about it. BH the outbreaks passed relatively quickly with minimal immediate damage. The average age in camps versus the average age at weddings makes them incomparable with regards to community risk. Additionally, the campers don't leave the camp grounds, leaving few options for wider spread. This is not the case by weddings, where after a few hours, the participants are widely dispersed throughout multiple communities.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 19, 2020, 04:23:51 PM
People keep saying that camps happened without any issues. That is categorically false. Many camps had outbreaks but decided not to do anything about it. BH the outbreaks passed relatively quickly with minimal immediate damage. The average age in camps versus the average age at weddings makes them incomparable with regards to community risk. Additionally, the campers don't leave the camp grounds, leaving few options for wider spread. This is not the case by weddings, where after a few hours, the participants are widely dispersed throughout multiple communities.
Camps also includes day camps.

It seems the rt in Lakewood is well below 0, the only reason we continue to see any new cases is because they're coming from OOT. Every time it's spread by someone from OOT the spread dies out until it's introduced again. To me this indicates herd immunity with a high number of infected people being introduced.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 20, 2020, 04:22:06 PM
0 cases from OCHD. Though only 4 total in the whole county; weird numbers.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 20, 2020, 04:22:59 PM
0 cases from OCHD. Though only 4 total in the whole county; weird numbers.
This is why daily numbers aren't worth much, 7 day average is the way to go.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 20, 2020, 04:37:49 PM
People keep saying that camps happened without any issues. That is categorically false. Many camps had outbreaks but decided not to do anything about it. BH the outbreaks passed relatively quickly with minimal immediate damage. The average age in camps versus the average age at weddings makes them incomparable with regards to community risk. Additionally, the campers don't leave the camp grounds, leaving few options for wider spread. This is not the case by weddings, where after a few hours, the participants are widely dispersed throughout multiple communities.
That's without issue. Nobody thought that there wouldn't be a single case... There are over 1.8 million cases of covid in the US.. people weren't concerned about the camp, more like what would happen when they left if they would bring it elsewhere etc... so far that hasn't  happened. So that's without issue.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 20, 2020, 04:51:39 PM
0 cases from OCHD. Though only 4 total in the whole county; weird numbers.
Sorry miscalculated. 1 new case.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 21, 2020, 03:59:30 PM
OCHD: 9 new cases.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 21, 2020, 04:08:21 PM
OCHD: 9 new cases.

How many in the last 7 days?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 21, 2020, 04:11:12 PM
How many in the last 7 days?
35.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 21, 2020, 04:40:48 PM
35.
Omg. Why aren't people wearing masks and social distancing?!
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 21, 2020, 04:46:50 PM
Omg. Why aren't people wearing masks and social distancing?!
I think if there was 20+ new cases on a weekly basis after a bit people would start caring a drop. Less than that definitely not.
  ::)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 21, 2020, 04:48:08 PM
  ::)
They made the cutoff :)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yesitsme on August 21, 2020, 05:34:44 PM
Omg. Why aren't people wearing masks and social distancing?!
because those that tested positive moved on in life after a few days
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 21, 2020, 05:44:28 PM
Omg. Why aren't people wearing masks and social distancing?!
1) An average of 5/day is low
2) There is no community spread.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 21, 2020, 06:12:06 PM
because those that tested positive moved on in life after a few days
I was being sarcastic...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 21, 2020, 06:14:34 PM
I was being sarcastic...

It's like they've never read any of your posts before...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 21, 2020, 06:43:40 PM
It's like they've never read any of your posts before...
Shocking
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 22, 2020, 09:13:19 PM
8 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 23, 2020, 10:56:11 AM
Verified story: teenager tested positive last night (onset of symptoms yesterday morning), 10 days after being in contact with her friend who subsequently tested positive (this is their current working theory of when/how she caught it.)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yelped on August 23, 2020, 11:43:10 AM
I think the spread in Lakewood is much more than the reported cases now, given how it spreads silently...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 23, 2020, 12:29:04 PM
Verified story: teenager tested positive last night (onset of symptoms yesterday morning), 10 days after being in contact with her friend who subsequently tested positive (this is their current working theory of when/how she caught it.)
If so that would be a rather long incubation period but not unheard of.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 23, 2020, 02:05:53 PM
I think the spread in Lakewood is much more than the reported cases now, given how it spreads silently...
Why do you think so? If you're making that assumption based on what happened in early March, the situation is very different. I know someone who came back from LA before there was a single confirmed positive case in lakewood and wasn't feeling well, he asked an urgent care if he should be worried it may be corona and they laughed at him.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 23, 2020, 02:16:29 PM
Why do you think so? If you're making that assumption based on what happened in early March, the situation is very different. I know someone who came back from LA before there was a single confirmed positive case in lakewood and wasn't feeling well, he asked an urgent care if he should be worried it may be corona and they laughed at him.
You don't see a pattern? .... all the pro lockdown, fear mongers.... its worse then we think, there's more than we know... second wave, third wave... its all the same people. Everything is worse then we think, cases are underreported, none of it based on anything other then בויך סברה.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 23, 2020, 02:46:42 PM
You don't see a pattern? .... all the pro lockdown, fear mongers.... its worse then we think, there's more than we know... second wave, third wave... its all the same people. Everything is worse then we think, cases are underreported, none of it based on anything other then בויך סברה.
Says Mr Cold-hard-facts.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Ergel on August 23, 2020, 02:54:26 PM
Says Mr Cold-hard-facts.
They can both be wrong
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 23, 2020, 03:04:48 PM
Says Mr Cold-hard-facts.
I never said its facts. But to use a few isolated incidents and say there is a spread now is asinine.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: joeberg on August 23, 2020, 03:18:53 PM
It is not a few isolated cases! From hearing anecdotal reports it seems like there are currently hundreds of cases in the tri-state from community. BH it seems like there are no hospitalizations but I think everyone should reevaluate their behavior based on the new facts on the ground. IE, Maybe avoid prolonged exposure at  large weddings, maybe masks.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Afrages6 on August 23, 2020, 03:31:03 PM
It is not a few isolated cases! From hearing anecdotal reports it seems like there are currently hundreds of cases in the tri-state from community. BH it seems like there are no hospitalizations but I think everyone should reevaluate their behavior based on the new facts on the ground. IE, Maybe avoid prolonged exposure at  large weddings, maybe masks.
You heard a couple anecdotal reports and extrapolated it too a couple hundred? Or you heard a couple hundred anecdotes
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 23, 2020, 04:11:47 PM
9 new cases yesterday via OCHD.

Definite upward trend over the past 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 23, 2020, 07:27:21 PM
I never said its facts. But to use a few isolated incidents and say there is a spread now is asinine.
Absolutely, but for someone who said 20 a week should make people pay attention it seems strange that when there are 35 a week in a much smaller population you are dismissing it.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 23, 2020, 08:11:53 PM
You don't see a pattern? .... all the pro lockdown, fear mongers.... its worse then we think, there's more than we know... second wave, third wave... its all the same people. Everything is worse then we think, cases are underreported, none of it based on anything other then בויך סברה.

Which part do you think is wrong? There isn't more than we know? It's not worse than we may have thought? Those aren't boich svaros, they are facts that are played out every day. We learn more every day. The long-term impacts that are being documented are worse than how we thought this virus would impact milder or asymptomatic cases, especially in younger (under 50) demographics.

The other stuff... I dare you to show me the last post on here advocating for a lockdown. As for the second and third (?) waves, they are brought down in context with the way seasonal viruses work, as well as historical data from previous pandemics. Hardly a boich svara.

ETA: cases being underreported is also documented fact. It's usually brought down to show how many more people had it already than we thought, so we must be closer to herd immunity than we think. It's also brought down in the context of certain agencies fudging numbers, which is also documented.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 24, 2020, 12:13:27 PM
Which part do you think is wrong? There isn't more than we know? It's not worse than we may have thought? Those aren't boich svaros, they are facts that are played out every day. We learn more every day. The long-term impacts that are being documented are worse than how we thought this virus would impact milder or asymptomatic cases, especially in younger (under 50) demographics.

The other stuff... I dare you to show me the last post on here advocating for a lockdown. As for the second and third (?) waves, they are brought down in context with the way seasonal viruses work, as well as historical data from previous pandemics. Hardly a boich svara.

ETA: cases being underreported is also documented fact. It's usually brought down to show how many more people had it already than we thought, so we must be closer to herd immunity than we think. It's also brought down in the context of certain agencies fudging numbers, which is also documented.

The only one who I recall promoting lockdown was @yaakov35 if BP reaches above 20 cases a week. :P
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 24, 2020, 04:02:43 PM
6 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 24, 2020, 05:37:53 PM
Another mesivta bochur in Lakewood from a large yeshivish camp was symptomatic and tested positive yesterday. This after the camp emailed the parents about another boy who tested positive as well.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 25, 2020, 09:05:03 AM
After seeing the letters come out from BP and Monsey, I'd think that we would see a similar letter in Lakewood, especially considering schools are starting this week. However, I do know that Lakewood doctors are now gun shy after the backlash Pesach time (about minyanim etc.), so who knows if we will actually see any public statement.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 25, 2020, 04:37:26 PM
10 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 25, 2020, 04:39:51 PM
Keep in mind that all of these OCHD numbers are for Lakewood cases; I haven't been tracking Jackson/Toms River cases.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 25, 2020, 04:44:11 PM
After seeing the letters come out from BP and Monsey, I'd think that we would see a similar letter in Lakewood, especially considering schools are starting this week. However, I do know that Lakewood doctors are now gun shy after the backlash Pesach time (about minyanim etc.), so who knows if we will actually see any public statement.
And now a letter from Flatbush hatzolah. Yet Lakewood remains silent
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 25, 2020, 05:50:41 PM
A teenager recently home from camp with mild symptoms tested positive and seems to have passed it on to her parent who is symptomatic and positive. Parent was not all that cautious in March/April but was negative for antibodies in May.

I would think that although this and similar anecdotes do not reflect on any assumption of herd immunity in Lakewood since some cases are inevitable, they do warrant some increased vigilance.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Traveler718 on August 25, 2020, 06:07:47 PM
And now a letter from Flatbush hatzolah. Yet Lakewood remains silent

Do you have a link to or copy of the FB Hatzalah letter that you could post?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 25, 2020, 06:19:35 PM
Do you have a link to or copy of the FB Hatzalah letter that you could post?
(https://i.postimg.cc/xjyV4QxZ/PNG-image.png) (https://postimg.cc/jC51Dpr6)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 25, 2020, 09:52:51 PM
And another letter, from Central Hatzolah https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1895633/alert-central-hatzolah-in-nyc-sends-out-message-regarding-uptick-in-covid-19-cases.html

The silence in Lakewood is thundering.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 25, 2020, 10:58:11 PM
And another letter, from Central Hatzolah https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1895633/alert-central-hatzolah-in-nyc-sends-out-message-regarding-uptick-in-covid-19-cases.html

The silence in Lakewood is thundering.
Maybe they're in the middle of making one? Or maybe there hasn't been an uptick? Why so quick to judge??
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 25, 2020, 11:03:18 PM


Or maybe there hasn't been an uptick?
Math is hard.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: 4yourinfo on August 25, 2020, 11:27:13 PM
Math is hard.
Just Maybe the situation in Lakewood is a bit different than NY - like the people testing positive are asymptomatic no ICU etc. Besides what's a letter for? For the 100s of comments pro and against?
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 25, 2020, 11:33:23 PM
Just Maybe the situation in Lakewood is a bit different than NY - like the people testing positive are asymptomatic no ICU etc.
This reminds me of the attitude purim time.
"It's 'only' in New Rochelle."
"It's 'only' in North Jersey."
"It's 'only' in Boro Park."
"Maybe it's the zechus hatorah protecting?"
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: grodnoking on August 25, 2020, 11:39:13 PM
This reminds me of the attitude purim time.
"It's 'only' in New Rochelle."
"It's 'only' in North Jersey."
"It's 'only' in Boro Park."
"Maybe it's the zechus hatorah protecting?"
The attitude purim time?! No one knew schnitzel purim time (besides @yuneeq ). The government was still telling people to go eat Chinese then!
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 25, 2020, 11:40:46 PM
The attitude purim time?! No one knew schnitzel purim time.
Yet armed with 5 months of knowledge seemingly nothing has changed in attitude.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 25, 2020, 11:51:58 PM
The attitude purim time?! No one knew schnitzel purim time (besides @yuneeq ). The government was still telling people to go eat Chinese then!

Correct. And while Lakewood really stepped up once they decided it was serious, they unquestionably reacted too late. To risk doing that again... I don't know why anyone would be ok with taking that chance. We're not talking about shutting everything down, just publishing a heads up to get people to pay attention.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: grodnoking on August 25, 2020, 11:54:08 PM
Yet armed with 5 months of knowledge seemingly nothing has changed in attitude.
Armed with 2.5 months of it being fully open and the knowledge that the rate is at about 0.03%, well below the Communist State of New Yorks rate. I think that they think they are doing just fine.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 25, 2020, 11:57:47 PM
Armed with 2.5 months of it being fully open and the knowledge that the rate is at about 0.03%, well below the Communist State of New Yorks rate. I think that they think they are doing just fine.
Lakewood has been open 2.5 months the same way Flatbush, BP, Monsey were - which are now issuing warnings about new cases/reinfections; and we are still somehow saying that Lakewood is maybe different?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 26, 2020, 08:08:06 AM
We're not talking about shutting everything down, just publishing a heads up to get people to pay attention.

What is the threshold for positive cases in a school before they will be required to shut down? I heard 3.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: flyingace on August 26, 2020, 08:15:16 AM
What is the threshold for positive cases in a school before they will be required to shut down? I heard 3.
I was wondering the same thing. Wouldn't it make sense to have all the students and staff test before school opens?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 26, 2020, 08:57:42 AM
What is the threshold for positive cases in a school before they will be required to shut down? I heard 3.

Whatever the threshold is, they are much more likely to reach it by continuing to stay silent.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 26, 2020, 09:18:19 AM
Whatever the threshold is, they are much more likely to reach it by continuing to stay silent.
I know there's a sentiment in town that people shouldn't test even when feeling ill lest it lead to another shutdown. This sentiment will only become stronger once schools open and testing could lead to a school being shut.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 26, 2020, 09:29:15 AM
Colleges that did comprehensive mass testing before students entered campus did not succeed in stemming the spread of infection; many have recently reported hundreds of cases soon after opening. From the schools standpoint, Ďdonít test donít tellí probably makes more sense if the goal is strictly to keep the schools open.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 26, 2020, 09:41:20 AM
From the schools standpoint, Ďdonít test donít tellí probably makes more sense if the goal is strictly to keep the schools open.

If that is the goal, that is the only way to accomplish it. That said, anyone who has that as their only goal has no business educating children.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: SayWhat on August 26, 2020, 09:41:46 AM
Colleges that did comprehensive mass testing before students entered campus did not succeed in stemming the spread of infection; many have recently reported hundreds of cases soon after opening. From the schools standpoint, Ďdonít test donít tellí probably makes more sense if the goal is strictly to keep the schools open.
That strategy makes sense for a sleep away camp where the virus would be contained to a small group of low risk kids. However in a school setting where kids are going home every night and the virus can spread to siblings who go to other schools and you are asking for a large scale breakout which would spread to a much larger group of potential high risk individuals.  You have to ask yourself what is the goal here, is it to keep schools open at all costs or the preservation of life?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 26, 2020, 10:02:03 AM
Just spoke to a Lakewood doctor. There's a huge outbreak going on, with scores of cases being reported daily. And probably not even the full picture because many people are just not testing because they don't want to quarantine.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 26, 2020, 10:08:17 AM
Just spoke to a Lakewood doctor. There's a huge outbreak going on, with scores of cases being reported daily. And probably not even the full picture because many people are just not testing because they don't want to quarantine.

If anyone has an in or any sway with the powers-that-be, now would be the time to reach out.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: 4yourinfo on August 26, 2020, 10:24:01 AM
If anyone has an in or any sway with the powers-that-be, now would be the time to reach out.
I'm guessing something will probably come out very soon - passed by a doc. Office looks jammed..
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 26, 2020, 10:30:43 AM
Just spoke to a Lakewood doctor. There's a huge outbreak going on, with scores of cases being reported daily. And probably not even the full picture because many people are just not testing because they don't want to quarantine.
Scores as in multiples of 20 daily? Why isnít the data reflected in OCHD #ís?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 26, 2020, 10:36:13 AM
Scores as in multiples of 20 daily? Why isnít the data reflected in OCHD #ís?
A few possibilities:
- There's a lag in reporting.
- There's a sizable portion of our community who live in Jackson/Toms River and aren't included in the OCHD Lakewood numbers.
- I'm not sure if he meant the exact literal definition of "score".
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: flyingace on August 26, 2020, 11:19:37 AM
The principal of a school said that it was a mistake not to start the week camp ended. Families have been going on vacation this week and will be coming back to school without any time in between.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: flyingace on August 26, 2020, 11:21:17 AM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/photos-covid-19-school-reopening-lakewood-school-sets-up-temperature-kiosks.html
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 26, 2020, 11:25:20 AM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/photos-covid-19-school-reopening-lakewood-school-sets-up-temperature-kiosks.html
I heard some people discussing how these aren't good because they facilitate tracing
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: flyingace on August 26, 2020, 11:29:53 AM
I heard some people discussing how these aren't good because they facilitate tracing
Nuts. Even if tracing is imperfect, isn't it worth it to save lives? I have kids going to school, none of us have had it and my grandparents live across the street. I am quite unhappy about having no precautions being instituted by my kid's school.
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 26, 2020, 11:33:41 AM
People running schools in Lakewood have seen what the Lakewood public schools have done to prep for kids coming back to school, and have done....nothing.

Then they send letters about how we need to pay full tuition because we are "shutfim" in our children's education. Apparently keeping kids safe and healthy isn't part of the shutfus.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 26, 2020, 11:42:45 AM
Hearing rumors about askanim discussing shutting down indoor weddings.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 26, 2020, 11:48:19 AM
Hearing rumors about askanim discussing shutting down indoor weddings.

A real shutdown, or like before (please come through the side door)?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: moka on August 26, 2020, 12:19:09 PM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/photos-covid-19-school-reopening-lakewood-school-sets-up-temperature-kiosks.html
Are the machines rigged?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: etech0 on August 26, 2020, 12:26:02 PM
Are the machines rigged?
the 10,000th customer will get a free gift
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 26, 2020, 02:20:04 PM
A few possibilities:
- There's a lag in reporting.
- There's a sizable portion of our community who live in Jackson/Toms River and aren't included in the OCHD Lakewood numbers.
- I'm not sure if he meant the exact literal definition of "score".
Additionally, there's many people who aren't testing because they don't want to be required to quarantine.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 26, 2020, 02:47:04 PM
26 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: dasmo801 on August 26, 2020, 03:49:56 PM
26 new cases via OCHD.

This is highest number recorded in Lakewood since at least 6/1. (That's when I began tracking.)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 26, 2020, 03:52:13 PM
This is highest number recorded in Lakewood since at least 6/1. (That's when I began tracking.)
Do you have the numbers for every day so we can see the 7 day average?
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 26, 2020, 03:57:48 PM
Do you have the numbers for every day so we can see the 7 day average?
Not sure what a 7 day average is going to tell you. There's a clear spike in official numbers. But even more worrisome are the numbers coming out of the Chemed tracker (don't have the numbers, but multiple doctors are sounding the alarm.)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 26, 2020, 04:02:01 PM
This is highest number recorded in Lakewood since at least 6/1. (That's when I began tracking.)
There were other days with such numbers that were later revised down.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: dasmo801 on August 26, 2020, 04:06:36 PM
Do you have the numbers for every day so we can see the 7 day average?

7 day average is 8.7. Highest since 6/16.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: dasmo801 on August 26, 2020, 04:10:29 PM
There were other days with such numbers that were later revised down.
There was a day with 25 (8/8) which was revised down over the next three days.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: dasmo801 on August 26, 2020, 04:20:54 PM
Do you have the numbers for every day so we can see the 7 day average?

Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 26, 2020, 04:28:59 PM


OCHD numbers confuse me. They routinely remove cases from their count. Is it because they weren't really positive, or because they belonged in a different county?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: flyingace on August 26, 2020, 05:12:01 PM
Not sure what a 7 day average is going to tell you. There's a clear spike in official numbers. But even more worrisome are the numbers coming out of the Chemed tracker (don't have the numbers, but multiple doctors are sounding the alarm.)
This!!!
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 26, 2020, 05:17:59 PM
Not sure what a 7 day average is going to tell you. There's a clear spike in official numbers. But even more worrisome are the numbers coming out of the Chemed tracker (don't have the numbers, but multiple doctors are sounding the alarm.)
Agree. Iíd like to see if there is significant community or tertiary spread being reported because as long as the infections are primary or secondary (family member etc.) herd immunity can still be assumed. If there is significant tertiary spread we have a big problem on our hands. Iím still a believer in herd immunity but we should be keeping our eyes open. Now is not the time for immunocompromised or elderly people who do not have recent antibody results to be attending indoor weddings or large public gatherings until there is more clarity.
(https://i.postimg.cc/sD4X0DKf/55-E63233-9-B22-442-D-ACE0-ED2874-AF91-DA.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 26, 2020, 11:55:31 PM
Agree. Iíd like to see if there is significant community or tertiary spread being reported because as long as the infections are primary or secondary (family member etc.) herd immunity can still be assumed. If there is significant tertiary spread we have a big problem on our hands. Iím still a believer in herd immunity but we should be keeping our eyes open. Now is not the time for immunocompromised or elderly people who do not have recent antibody results to be attending indoor weddings or large public gatherings until there is more clarity.
(https://i.postimg.cc/sD4X0DKf/55-E63233-9-B22-442-D-ACE0-ED2874-AF91-DA.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
I know someone who got it from her friend who got it from her boss (who got it from?).

(That's tertiary for those keeping "score" at home )
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: incendia on August 27, 2020, 07:03:26 AM
I know there's a sentiment in town that people shouldn't test even when feeling ill lest it lead to another shutdown. This sentiment will only become stronger once schools open and testing could lead to a school being shut.

A perverse and dangerous case of Godhart's law
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 27, 2020, 08:33:23 AM
I know someone who got it from her friend who got it from her boss (who got it from?).

(That's tertiary for those keeping "score" at home (https://emoji.tapatalk-cdn.com/emoji6.png))
It is in an email from a local pediatrician to patients and others who signed up for the newsletter. Someone changed the first word of the paragraph from CHEMED to Doctors but the rest is verbatim.

This is the prior paragraph.
Quote
We recently brought to your attention that, after several months of extraordinary quietness in Lakewood, there was an uptick in new cases of COVID-19 illness in the Lakewood Kehilla. At this point, there has been a significant number of new cases reported
(20+ cases last week and 35+ cases so far this week).

I think if there was 20+ new cases on a weekly basis after a bit people would start caring a drop. Less than that definitely not.

If we reached the point that even @yaakov35 is calling for a lockdown and fearmongering then maybe we should open our eyes.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 27, 2020, 09:09:15 AM
Just spoke to a Lakewood doctor. There's a huge outbreak going on, with scores of cases being reported daily. And probably not even the full picture because many people are just not testing because they don't want to quarantine.
35+ in a week is a vastly different picture than Ďscoresí each day.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: skv on August 27, 2020, 09:15:51 AM
anyone have the letter from the doctor that everyone is referring to? I'd love to see it.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 27, 2020, 09:19:12 AM
anyone have the letter from the doctor that everyone is referring to? I'd love to see it.
PM'd
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 27, 2020, 09:22:46 AM
35+ in a week is a vastly different picture than Ďscoresí each day.

35+ so far this week as of the writing of the letter. And let's not nitpick here. We're well aware of how fast this virus spreads, and over 55 cases in 10 days is enough to start sounding the alarms. The alternative is to "wait and see" and we'll find out for sure after everything gets shut down again...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 27, 2020, 09:23:19 AM
35+ in a week is a vastly different picture than Ďscoresí each day.
Yeah. I assume he didn't mean the literal Abraham Lincoln definition. Relative to the past few months it's a very significant amount.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 27, 2020, 10:33:49 AM
35+ so far this week as of the writing of the letter. And let's not nitpick here. We're well aware of how fast this virus spreads, and over 55 cases in 10 days is enough to start sounding the alarms. The alternative is to "wait and see" and we'll find out for sure after everything gets shut down again...
That just about double from one week to the next. We all know where this goes if it stays on this trajectory. Will it stay? I hope not, but to discount the possibility is foolhardy.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yuneeq on August 27, 2020, 10:35:27 AM
PM'd

Can you send to me as well
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 27, 2020, 01:00:43 PM
That just about double from one week to the next. We all know where this goes if it stays on this trajectory. Will it stay? I hope not, but to discount the possibility is foolhardy.
I agree that vigilance is called for. We have had several of these increases in the past few months only to to have been false alarms. This time anecdotal evidence seems to give more credence to the trend. I just donít like throwing around numbers. 30 (or 50) a week is simply a caution sign. ĎScoresí each day is a likely pandemic resurgence . Letís keep things very specific.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 27, 2020, 01:02:23 PM
That just about double from one week to the next. We all know where this goes if it stays on this trajectory. Will it stay? I hope not, but to discount the possibility is foolhardy.
Jumping to the conclusion that we have a full blown outbreak, and comparing it to March is foolhardy as well.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Traveler718 on August 27, 2020, 01:05:33 PM
That just about double from one week to the next. We all know where this goes if it stays on this trajectory. Will it stay? I hope not, but to discount the possibility is foolhardy.

No way to know for sure, but with schools reopening and Yamim Noraim just around the corner, it seems quite prudent to err on the side of caution.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 27, 2020, 01:07:50 PM
No way to know for sure, but with schools reopening and Yamim Noraim just around the corner, it seems quite prudent to err on the side of caution.
Jumping to "err on the side of caution" without considering the facts and repercussions is not erring on the side of caution, it's running away from responsibility.
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 27, 2020, 01:16:28 PM
Jumping to "err on the side of caution" without considering the facts and repercussions is not erring on the side of caution, it's running away from responsibility.
Erring on the side of caution now means wearing masks and being smart/prudent about indoor gatherings. No one is calling for a shutdown.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 27, 2020, 01:21:47 PM
Jumping to "err on the side of caution" without considering the facts and repercussions is not erring on the side of caution, it's running away from responsibility.

Ah, so your idea of not running away from responsibility is to continue to not wear masks and go on like there's nothing going on?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 27, 2020, 01:24:21 PM
Jumping to the conclusion that we have a full blown outbreak, and comparing it to March is foolhardy as well.
That is correct, so what do you recommend?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 27, 2020, 01:25:38 PM
Erring on the side of caution now means wearing masks and being smart/prudent about indoor gatherings. No one is calling for a shutdown.
That's not the point, "erring on the side of caution" instead of looking at the situation from an objective view just causes people to ignore any guidance. If an individual wants to err on the side of caution they're more than welcome.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 27, 2020, 01:28:02 PM
That's not the point, "erring on the side of caution" instead of looking at the situation from an objective view just causes people to ignore any guidance. If an individual wants to err on the side of caution they're more than welcome.
That is IF the ones issuing the guidance are unable to communicate and articulate exactly why each item makes sense. Unfortunately, the politicians mixed their politics into this and now this cannot be done.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Moshe123 on August 27, 2020, 01:34:58 PM
Any argument for masks that doesn't say "if you had covid already, don't bother." is useless.

It's also the reason why it's being flaunted so much.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Dawie on August 27, 2020, 01:37:06 PM
Can you send to me as well
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yuneeq on August 27, 2020, 01:56:06 PM

Where do you think he got it from? ;)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 27, 2020, 01:57:01 PM
Erring on the side of caution now means wearing masks and being smart/prudent about indoor gatherings. No one is calling for a shutdown.
I do not believe that having the average person wear a mask at typical daily functions is warranted at this time based on the numbers being provided at this time...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 27, 2020, 02:14:28 PM
That is IF the ones issuing the guidance are unable to communicate and articulate exactly why each item makes sense. Unfortunately, the politicians mixed their politics into this and now this cannot be done.
It sounds like we're pretty much in agreement.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yelped on August 27, 2020, 02:25:20 PM
Any argument for masks that doesn't say "if you had covid already, don't bother." is useless.

It's also the reason why it's being flaunted so much.
Really now? With people getting reinfected there should not be any exceptions. Especially being that if a significant amount of people don't wear masks, the others will also stop.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 27, 2020, 02:48:19 PM
6 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 27, 2020, 02:54:02 PM
Really now? With people getting reinfected there should not be any exceptions. Especially being that if a significant amount of people don't wear masks, the others will also stop.
You may be technically correct, but one thing this pandemic has taught us is that "forcing" people to do something isn't going to accomplish anything.

The best (only?) approach for the current situation is to raise the alarm and remind people who "know" that they should be more careful to be vigilant and more conscious of it I.e. people who've been lax because they were aware that there have been no cases in Lakewood.

@Yard sale is correct, at the current numbers there is no point in trying to "waste bullets" and strong arm people to do something which they won't listen to anyways.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Moshe123 on August 27, 2020, 03:16:22 PM
Really now? With people getting reinfected there should not be any exceptions. Especially being that if a significant amount of people don't wear masks, the others will also stop.

There has been a single confirmed reinfection case in the entire world and asymptomatic and likely not contagious.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yelped on August 27, 2020, 03:22:22 PM
There has been a single confirmed reinfection case in the entire world and asymptomatic and likely not contagious.
You haven't been following apparently...

Besides, the main point was my second point.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 27, 2020, 03:43:24 PM
There has been a single confirmed reinfection case in the entire world and asymptomatic and likely not contagious.

"I didn't eat it and it also burnt my tongue"
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 27, 2020, 04:46:43 PM
It sounds like we're pretty much in agreement.
I have a feeling that this possibility is lost on many people here.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 27, 2020, 11:20:42 PM
You may be technically correct, but one thing this pandemic has taught us is that "forcing" people to do something isn't going to accomplish anything.

The best (only?) approach for the current situation is to raise the alarm and remind people who "know" that they should be more careful to be vigilant and more conscious of it I.e. people who've been lax because they were aware that there have been no cases in Lakewood.

@Yard sale is correct, at the current numbers there is no point in trying to "waste bullets" and strong arm people to do something which they won't listen to anyways.
+1000

It seems to be nearly useless to try and convince those who are in denial mode to try and be a little more cautious. For those who would try to be cautious but let down their guard during this period of calm, and to those who arenít completely set either way, here is some new information.

PSA

My father spoke to one of the more prominent Lakewood doctors tonight (feel free to PM for the name). He informed my father that there is seemingly a large silent outbreak beginning to circulate in Lakewood once more, after months of virtually no spread. He said that 2 weeks ago there were suddenly 12 new cases (a spike after many weeks of far less). Last week, 25. This week, already more than 40 confirmed new cases as of this morning.. he also mentioned that according to his experience of speaking to contacts who were exposed, most people (even with some mild symptoms) are choosing not to test. These numbers also donít account for the incubation period in people who may not have developed symptoms, asymptomatic carriers, and people who are still awaiting results. He believes that we are a lot closer to March than most currently believe, but doctors are worried about sounding the alarm because of the possible damage to their credibility.

One more point- he doesnít believe there is ANY evidence that new cases are milder. Most of those tested are somewhat younger and there havenít been that many new confirmed cases yet, but this is how it started originally as well... there were hundreds or thousands infected before the first hospitalization.

Again, if you want to bury your head in the sand, go ahead. This is a PSA for those who want to hear legitimate updates.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 28, 2020, 01:49:50 AM
It really shouldnít have to be a choice between sounding the alarm and risking their reputation. Communicating the numbers to the public and how those infected contracted covid (chasuna, etc.) without recommending a specific course of action would probably be an effective method of alerting the public without risking their reputation.

As far as his assumption that there is a wave of infections as in March, jumping to those kind of conclusions without clear evidence is the kind of thing that  will damage his credibility. I really donít think that this is how it started in March. Take a look back at the early threads and you will see that there was actually a very short lag time between the first reports of symptomatic people in Lakewood  a couple days after purim, to the first positives the week after, to multiple deaths and transports a few days later. So I wouldnít think we are in any way in a situation comparable to March.

We still do not have any indication that Lakewood is still at risk of widespread community spread. Itís true that it wouldnít shock me if there were quite a few positives that arenít coming in for testing but until we see evidence of community secondary spread, or massive numbers of infections that would indicate such, there really is no basis to panic and call it March all over again....

Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 28, 2020, 10:10:06 AM
From http://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/08/thursday-august-27-news-updates-lakewood.html
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 28, 2020, 10:13:35 AM
https://hamodia.com/2020/08/27/lakewood-sees-uptick-covid-cases/

Quote
Dr. Dovid Friedman, CEO of the CHEMED health center, urged vigilance in light of the recent trend.

ďIt is a concern that numbers have gone up,Ē he told Hamodia. ďFortunately we are seeing minimal to moderate disease, but as cases increase so does concern that we will end up with patients who present more severe cases. We also do not want to see the community negatively impacted in any way.Ē

Wow, a doctor finally going on record.

(I do not envy the position of the doctors. They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. If they sound the alarm and people are careful and the impact of this outbreak is contained, then they look like they overreacted. It's paradoxical.)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 28, 2020, 11:10:56 AM
From http://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/08/thursday-august-27-news-updates-lakewood.html
Sites like hefkervelt are from the primary causes for the issues he is complaining about. If you dismantle the establishment then don't be surprised that it is not there for you when you want it.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 28, 2020, 11:12:51 AM
Sites like hefkervelt are from the primary causes for the issues he is complaining about. If you dismantle the establishment then don't be surprised that it is not there for you when you want it.
I agree with this in general, although HV hasn't been very much anti establishment for a while already. I think when TakebackLakewood stopped posting HV also stopped.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 28, 2020, 11:14:47 AM
I agree with this in general, although HV hasn't been very much anti establishment for a while already. I think when TakebackLakewood stopped posting HV also stopped.
HH?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 28, 2020, 11:16:04 AM
HH?
HefkerVelt.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 28, 2020, 11:19:08 AM
HefkerVelt.
I wasn't trying to correct you. I was giving an example. Yes they have calmed down.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 28, 2020, 11:20:49 AM
I wasn't trying to correct you. I was giving an example. Yes they have calmed down.
Ah yeah. Can't mistake them as shilling for the establishment (cough TLS cough) now, but they're not as virulent anymore.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 28, 2020, 01:49:45 PM
7 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 28, 2020, 01:50:41 PM
Ah yeah. Can't mistake them as shilling for the establishment (cough TLS cough) now, but they're not as virulent anymore.
But the damage has already been done.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 28, 2020, 04:07:05 PM
50 new cases this week via CHEMED tracker.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 28, 2020, 06:33:59 PM
50 new cases this week via CHEMED tracker.
Significant but not alarming. Even if 50% of the population of Lakewood has already contracted Covid (which is way too generous a number) it is all but assured that there are dozens if not hundreds of people who never had Covid who are going to be in settings with someone who is positive on any given day and some will become infected.

That being said, not everyone should be putting themselves or their relatives in these settings. Someone elderly or vulnerable may want to reconsider attending large Chasunas, or davening in a 800 person minyan in yeshiva for yomim noraim given what we are currently seeing....
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: shulemw on August 28, 2020, 06:42:57 PM
Need to know details if lets say there was 3 families with 6-7 cases each then its not so alarming.

if its 50 cases each in a seperate family then its much more alarming
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 29, 2020, 08:47:52 PM
Significant but not alarming. Even if 50% of the population of Lakewood has already contracted Covid (which is way too generous a number) it is all but assured that there are dozens if not hundreds of people who never had Covid who are going to be in settings with someone who is positive on any given day and some will become infected.

That being said, not everyone should be putting themselves or their relatives in these settings. Someone elderly or vulnerable may want to reconsider attending large Chasunas, or davening in a 800 person minyan in yeshiva for yomim noraim given what we are currently seeing....

The problem with your attitude is that by the time the numbers become "alarming," great damage has already been done to too many people. Just wear a damn mask!
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 29, 2020, 08:59:02 PM
3 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 09:02:57 PM
A guy who sits right next to my brother first Seder tested positive after having shortness of breath and missed his sisterís wedding.

A friend I met on Shabbos told me his brother caught it from his wife, who caught it at a wedding. Took her a week to develop symptoms, him a couple more days. Both sick in bed, low 20s.

A wedding another brother attended this past week had half of chasunah and guests outdoors, because the father of the Kallah tested positive right before. Officially he didnít attend, but his family, who was obviously exposed to him, all stayed outdoors with social distancing.

Rí Malkielís gabbai (Lemberger) told a friend of mine on Thursday he was at a wedding this past week where a Hatzalah member approached an attendee and yelled at him to leave immediately. The member told the gabbai that this man had called Hatzalah less than 48 hours earlier with trouble breathing, and subsequently tested positive for COVID.

There is a theme here, and itís not shuls. What is the heter/chiyuv to be irresponsible at weddings?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: SayWhat on August 29, 2020, 09:09:43 PM
That being said, not everyone should be putting themselves or their relatives in these settings. Someone elderly or vulnerable may want to reconsider attending large Chasunas, or davening in a 800 person minyan in yeshiva for yomim noraim given what we are currently seeing....
The Nazi's plan for a master race included letting the sick and infirm die to strengthen the gene pool. It seems some in our community have taken the same approach, "I'm in good health why should I worry about Corona"   
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: YitzyS on August 29, 2020, 09:52:40 PM
The Nazi's plan for a master race included letting the sick and infirm die to strengthen the gene pool. It seems some in our community have taken the same approach, "I'm in good health why should I worry about Corona"
Say what?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 29, 2020, 09:53:37 PM
The problem with your attitude is that by the time the numbers become "alarming," great damage has already been done to too many people. Just wear a damn mask!
The problem with raising the alarm when daily cases are mostly in the single digits is that people wonít listen if there is a real need to sound the alarm. Doctors have already lost credibility with many some Rabbonim due to the stance taken after pesach which may have been a reasonable approach but was out of sync with the reality on the ground. Running around Lakewood and yelling at everyone to ďjust wear the óó- maskĒ is actually detrimental to the cause long term.

Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 09:56:00 PM
The problem with raising the alarm when daily cases are mostly in the single digits is that people wonít listen if there is a real need to sound the alarm. Doctors have already lost credibility with many some Rabbonim due to the stance taken after pesach which may have been a reasonable approach but was out of sync with the reality on the ground. Running around Lakewood and yelling at everyone to ďjust wear the óó- maskĒ is actually detrimental to the cause long term.
You do realize everyone in the civilized world is wearing masks, yes?

Also, what would be a number that would be considered ďa real need to sound the alarmĒ? I believe some here have gone on the record with 20 a week as the baseline. What would be yours?

..... and finally. Are you still impressed with the ďemunahĒ some have in a second wave coming, or do your eyes and ears tell you that thereís still no way such a thing can occur?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 29, 2020, 09:58:41 PM
The Nazi's plan for a master race included letting the sick and infirm die to strengthen the gene pool. It seems some in our community have taken the same approach, "I'm in good health why should I worry about Corona"
What are you trying to say? Doesnít it make eminent sense to tell vulnerable people to be extra cautious and stay away from places where there is the potential for spread?

The University of Alabama had over 1000 students test positive in the past two weeks. Zero hospitalizations. If the students are not particularly worried I get that. But doesnít it make sense for older people to stay far away? Just common sense.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 29, 2020, 10:05:42 PM
You do realize everyone in the civilized world is wearing masks, yes?

Also, what would be a number that would be considered ďa real need to sound the alarmĒ? I believe some here have gone on the record with 20 a week as the baseline. What would be yours?

..... and finally. Are you still impressed with the ďemunahĒ some have in a second wave coming, or do your eyes and ears tell you that thereís still no way such a thing can occur?
There is no evidence that I am aware of of significant community (tertiary) spread at this time. As long as cases are largely confined to primary contact with contagious out of towners, and secondary spread to family members there is no basis for alarm. A large amount of community spread from unknown sources is when alarm is warranted. This is not a second wave, and I do not envision one coming to Lakewood.

Maybe the doctors would be better off using their resources to combat some of the misinformation and educate the community about the basic facts. You have a very prominent personage telling people that no one died of Covid; the doctors killed them all in the hospitals, and that the fact that one doesnít hear of many childhood leukemia diagnosis in the past few months is evidence that they were caused by vaccinations, or that masks make people sick. Others are telling people that the whole aiva parsha was a lie- it never happened that doctors and nurses blamed it on minyanim etc. Itís time for a fact checking and public information campaign in those areas. That would be a good use of resources at this time.

Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 29, 2020, 10:13:22 PM
The problem with raising the alarm when daily cases are mostly in the single digits is that people wonít listen if there is a real need to sound the alarm. Doctors have already lost credibility with many some Rabbonim due to the stance taken after pesach which may have been a reasonable approach but was out of sync with the reality on the ground. Running around Lakewood and yelling at everyone to ďjust wear the óó- maskĒ is actually detrimental to the cause long term.

I get it. We don't want to panic the people, because there's no reason to panic right now. No need for a "boy who cried wolf" situation. You know what? I agree with you 100%.

Here's what's tripping me up. Why is there only one alarm? Why does it have to be lockdown or normal? Where's the nuance? And why is wearing a mask, something THE ENTIRE WORLD is doing, considering so crazy that people in Lakewood will panic?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 10:23:30 PM
There is no evidence that I am aware of of significant community (tertiary) spread at this time. As long as cases are largely confined to primary contact with contagious out of towners, and secondary spread to family members there is no basis for alarm. A large amount of community spread from unknown sources is when alarm is warranted. This is not a second wave, and I do not envision one coming to Lakewood.


What would you call ďa large amountĒ? Surely you want to *prevent* what has previously occurred, not *react* to that? So what would you define as significant community spread? Also, considering how exponentially fast this virus seems to spread, how are you confident that it wonít be too late?

A little reminder: those who said they were ďwaitingĒ last time ended up waiting until it was too late.

And finally. Why arenít masks warranted now? What aveira are we encouraging?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 10:27:47 PM
I get it. We don't want to panic the people, because there's no reason to panic right now. No need for a "boy who cried wolf" situation. You know what? I agree with you 100%.

Here's what's tripping me up. Why is there only one alarm? Why does it have to be lockdown or normal? Where's the nuance? And why is wearing a mask, something THE ENTIRE WORLD is doing, considering so crazy that people in Lakewood will panic?
I think we already have a boy who cried wolf situation, and it will take a lot to overcome it. Panicking over an average of less than 10 cases per day without community spread is why people continue to lose faith. The email from a doctor posted here this week is exactly what we should be seeing, no "wear a mask or else" or "the world is coming to an end" rhetoric, just the basic facts with a hint at masks. I can guarantee you, that doctors office will have a bigger effect if the time comes to pull the alarm than everyone else in town who's been screaming every time the number of cases tick up.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 10:29:29 PM
And finally. Why arenít masks warranted now? What aveira are we encouraging?
Because people won't wear them now AND they won't wear them if the situation gets bad if you continue crying wolf every time there's a mouse.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 10:30:12 PM
I think we already have a boy who cried wolf situation, and it will take a lot to overcome it. Panicking over an average of less than 10 cases per day without community spread is why people continue to lose faith. The email from a doctor posted here this week is exactly what we should be seeing, no "wear a mask or else" or "the world is coming to an end" rhetoric, just the basic facts with a hint at masks. I can guarantee you, that doctors office will have a bigger effect if the time comes to pull the alarm than everyone else in town who's been screaming every time the number of cases tick up.
One could argue weíve had a wolf situation, and the boy who cried was actually vindicated.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 10:30:41 PM
Because people won't wear them now AND they won't wear them if the situation gets bad if you continue crying wolf every time there's a mouse.
So is your answer that people are stupid?

Your argument is that we should wait until people are dead, like we did last time, because otherwise they wonít listen. Aha.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 10:31:35 PM
So is your answer that people are stupid?
No, the answer is people tune you out when you cry wolf.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 10:32:03 PM
No, the answer is people tune you out when you cry wolf.
Umm. Newsflash. The wolf came. People died.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 10:32:43 PM
One could argue weíve had a wolf situation, and the boy who cried was actually vindicated.
Umm. Newsflash. The wolf came. People died.
Comparing March when we had no idea what was going on, to now is ridiculous.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 10:33:37 PM
Whoís ďweĒ? In March, as now, you were claiming it wonít be as bad as it got, and argued with others who were proven right. Define how your stance has changed.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 29, 2020, 10:34:14 PM
I think we already have a boy who cried wolf situation, and it will take a lot to overcome it. Panicking over an average of less than 10 cases per day without community spread is why people continue to lose faith. The email from a doctor posted here this week is exactly what we should be seeing, no "wear a mask or else" or "the world is coming to an end" rhetoric, just the basic facts with a hint at masks. I can guarantee you, that doctors office will have a bigger effect if the time comes to pull the alarm than everyone else in town who's been screaming every time the number of cases tick up.

No one is screaming and no one is panicking. This lack of nuance is beneath you. Wearing a mask is universally accepted. No one is saying, "wear a mask or else." They are begging, I am begging, please wear a mask so that we never have to come to a point where there is panic. It's purely a preventive measure.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yesitsme on August 29, 2020, 10:36:46 PM
Wearing a mask is universally accepted.
Azoy?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 10:36:50 PM
Comparing March when we had no idea what was going on, to now is ridiculous.
I still have yet to hear why masks *arenít* warranted, and what you would consider an amount worthy of concern. Obviously waiting for many hospitalizations and deaths would be a poor baseline, as that would mean we already lost. Apparently we are not there yet. So what would you consider there?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 10:37:04 PM
Azoy?
You need to get out more
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 29, 2020, 10:38:39 PM
Azoy?

Outside of frum communities and the radical 'Murica crowd? Yes. Globally.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ari3 on August 29, 2020, 10:46:53 PM
The Nazi's plan for a master race included letting the sick and infirm die to strengthen the gene pool. It seems some in our community have taken the same approach, "I'm in good health why should I worry about Corona"
you are out of your mind!

One thing is for sure, writing stupid things like that won't convince anyone to wear a mask or avoid large gatherings
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yesitsme on August 29, 2020, 10:51:27 PM
Outside of frum communities and the radical 'Murica crowd? Yes. Globally.
I'm proud to be part of the frum community, and I'm not sure if I should laugh or cry when I see those wearing a mask in their vehicle even without any passengers all in the name of politics
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 10:55:11 PM
No one is screaming and no one is panicking. This lack of nuance is beneath you. Wearing a mask is universally accepted. No one is saying, "wear a mask or else." They are begging, I am begging, please wear a mask so that we never have to come to a point where there is panic. It's purely a preventive measure.
Exhibit A:
So is your answer that people are stupid?

Your argument is that we should wait until people are dead, like we did last time, because otherwise they wonít listen. Aha.
Whoís ďweĒ? In March, as now, you were claiming it wonít be as bad as it got, and argued with others who were proven right. Define how your stance has changed.
I still have yet to hear why masks *arenít* warranted, and what you would consider an amount worthy of concern. Obviously waiting for many hospitalizations and deaths would be a poor baseline, as that would mean we already lost. Apparently we are not there yet. So what would you consider there?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 10:57:24 PM
Whoís ďweĒ? In March, as now, you were claiming it wonít be as bad as it got, and argued with others who were proven right. Define how your stance has changed.
Everyone!
I still have yet to hear why masks *arenít* warranted, and what you would consider an amount worthy of concern. Obviously waiting for many hospitalizations and deaths would be a poor baseline, as that would mean we already lost. Apparently we are not there yet. So what would you consider there?
I've said it multiple times and my position hasn't changed. Significant community spread is where I draw the line.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 29, 2020, 10:58:18 PM
I'm proud to be part of the frum community, and I'm not sure if I should laugh or cry when I see those wearing a mask in their vehicle even without any passengers all in the name of politics

I've been that person, and it has nothing to do with politics. Walked out of a store and was going to another place where I needed to wear it, so I just didn't take it off. Pretty common, actually.

And this is yet another example of the lack of nuance in our community. Because we're not the people who wear masks by ourselves in our cars for political reasons, we should just not wear masks ever. Either/or, binary proposition.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 10:59:42 PM
I've been that person, and it has nothing to do with politics. Walked out of a store and was going to another place where I needed to wear it, so I just didn't take it off. Pretty common, actually.

And this is yet another example of the lack of nuance in our community. Because we're not the people who wear masks by ourselves in our cars for political reasons, we should just not wear masks ever. Either/or, binary proposition.
I think he was referring to people driving down the highway wearing masks. I've seen it many times and I laugh every time.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 29, 2020, 11:00:03 PM
Everyone! I've said it multiple times and my position hasn't changed. Significant community spread is where I draw the line.

Define "significant." What's the number?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 29, 2020, 11:01:35 PM
I think he was referring to people driving down the highway wearing masks. I've seen it many times and I laugh every time.

Happens to be, I was on the 95.

I'm not saying there aren't stupid people in the world. I'm saying that they shouldn't be a factor.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 11:04:01 PM
Define "significant." What's the number?
I don't have a hard number, but a few isolated cases isn't enough. As of now, I believe the overwhelming majority of new cases know where they got it.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 11:05:03 PM
Everyone! I've said it multiple times and my position hasn't changed. Significant community spread is where I draw the line.
A) Itís false to imply that some here didnít know more than others what was going on. People like @yuneeq were quite vocal about it and were being ignored.

B) Thatís just about as vague as can be. What is significant community spread? How many diagnosed cases per month or per week? How far do the cases need to be? Do we need 1, or a few, or many? Also, at what point will it be too late?
Exhibit A:
Youíre either being obtuse or deliberately twisting what I wrote. Iím not insinuating that not wearing masks *must* lead to an outcome. Iím saying itís the rational thing to do to definitely *preempt* that outcome.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 11:06:24 PM
Happens to be, I was on the 95.

I'm not saying there aren't stupid people in the world. I'm saying that they shouldn't be a factor.
This, plus people wearing N95 masks shouldnít be adjusting it between places.

Seriously, how is the fact that you saw someone doing something stupid that you disagree with an argument?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yitzgar on August 29, 2020, 11:08:10 PM
Bringing up the old lady in her car wearing a mask every time there is a discussion about masks, is the equivalent of Godwin's law
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 11:09:05 PM
Bringing up the old lady in her car wearing a mask every time there is a discussion about masks, is the equivalent of Godwin's law
Itís the anti-corona version of ď15 will be 0Ē
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 11:10:25 PM
I think he was referring to people driving down the highway wearing masks. I've seen it many times and I laugh every time.
What if theyíre Uber drivers? Isnít it the considerate thing to do? Iím only arguing this because there can technically be a valid reason to do it, although there certainly are foolish people out there.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yitzgar on August 29, 2020, 11:10:34 PM
Literally everywhere in the United States (and probably many other countries), everyone is wearing masks when indoors in public places. The one major exception is Jewish communities in NY/NJ. Must be because of how smart we are....
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yesitsme on August 29, 2020, 11:11:21 PM
in our shuls We have a section for those over 60 that wear a mask, and the rest enjoys life as usual, how is your kiddush with a mask?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 11:11:30 PM
Literally everywhere in the United States (and probably many other countries), everyone is wearing masks when indoors in public places. The one major exception is some Jewish communities in NY/NJ. Must be because of how smart we are....
FTFY
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 11:11:37 PM
A) Itís false to imply that some here didnít know more than others what was going on. People like @yuneeq were quite vocal about it and were being ignored.
Even @yuneeq admitted he didn't realize the extent.
Quote
Youíre either being obtuse or deliberately twisting what I wrote. Iím not insinuating that not wearing masks *must* lead to an outcome. Iím saying itís the rational thing to do to definitely *preempt* that outcome.
You're sounding the alarm like we have a major outbreak going on. You compared now to March multiple times. You're the definition of the boy who cried wolf.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yitzgar on August 29, 2020, 11:12:15 PM
FTFY
True
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 11:12:57 PM
Literally everywhere democrat city in the United States (and probably many other countries), everyone is wearing masks when indoors in public places. The one major exception is Jewish communities in NY/NJ. Must be because of how smart we are....
FTFY
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 11:13:03 PM
in our shuls We have a section for those over 60 that were a mask, and the rest enjoys life as usual, how is your kiddush with a mask?
While thatís commendable, itís not the norm in the shuls I regularly attend. One can argue itís insufficient as well but itís definitely a large step.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yitzgar on August 29, 2020, 11:13:15 PM
in our shuls We have a section for those over 60 that wear a mask, and the rest enjoys life as usual, how is your kiddush with a mask?
It's good we have our priorities straight....what would life be without a Kiddush?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yitzgar on August 29, 2020, 11:13:34 PM
FTFY
Not at all true
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 11:14:17 PM
Literally everywhere in the United States (and probably many other countries), everyone is wearing masks when indoors in public places. The one major exception is Jewish communities in NY/NJ. Must be because of how smart we are....
The fact is, screaming this will only make people less likely to listen if the situation gets serious.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 29, 2020, 11:14:35 PM
Not at all true
Where have you been?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 11:15:18 PM
Even @yuneeq admitted he didn't realize the extent. You're sounding the alarm like we have a major outbreak going on. You compared now to March multiple times. You're the definition of the boy who cried wolf.
No. I asked *you* to define when and what you would do to preempt it. Instead of addressing what I said you chose to attack my choice of words. I must say Iím not surprised.

We do have the largest outbreak going on since early April. Do you disagree?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yitzgar on August 29, 2020, 11:16:45 PM
Where have you been?
A number of rural areas that probably had more trump signs in one square mile than the entire NYC
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 11:18:26 PM
FTFY
Youíre kidding me. Do you live under a rock?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yesitsme on August 29, 2020, 11:18:47 PM
While thatís commendable, itís not the norm in the shuls I regularly attend. One can argue itís insufficient as well but itís definitely a large step.
This is not something new, this is how it is since reopening shvuas time

Corona is not active in our neighborhood (at worst you have a few people home for a couple of days)
Covid doesn't effect the young population except in rare cases

There is no reason not to live life as usual except if you're part of the vulnerable community
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 29, 2020, 11:19:38 PM
I don't have a hard number, but a few isolated cases isn't enough. As of now, I believe the overwhelming majority of new cases know where they got it.
Yup they all know they got it at weddings. Doesn't that tell you that something should be changed at weddings?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: SayWhat on August 29, 2020, 11:22:55 PM
Everyone! I've said it multiple times and my position hasn't changed. Significant community spread is where I draw the line.
Why is it that you insist on waiting till there is "Significant community spread" to wear a mask? At the point where there is significant community spread you are beyond the point where wearing a mask will help. Calling for people to wear masks now is not being an alarmist, it's called being a realist. In February one of the "World Experts" on pandemics said that in order to avoid a pandemic you have to be proactive and be a step ahead of the virus, if you wait till you have the facts you are already too late. We found this out the hard way already, yet here you are arguing the same nonsense.

If we wait till there is significant community spread, people in our community will die. There are old and infirm and no matter how much they try to project themselves they will be exposed. Do you have no sense of Achryis towards others?

I prefer to wear a mask and if I'm wrong I wore a mask unnecessarily. Others don't wear a mask and if they are wrong....?

   
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 29, 2020, 11:23:40 PM
This is not something new, this is how it is since reopening shvuas time

Corona is not active in our neighborhood (at worst you have a few people home for a couple of days)
Covid doesn't kill the young and healthy population within weeks at a higher rate than some other illnesses

There is no reason not to live life as usual except if you're part of the vulnerable community or interact with any of them or their households, or would prefer not to be quite sick for weeks with possible long term side effects
FTFY
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 29, 2020, 11:24:51 PM
Everyone! I've said it multiple times and my position hasn't changed. Significant community spread is where I draw the line.
Wouldn't that be too late?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 29, 2020, 11:26:36 PM
Youíre kidding me. Do you live under a rock?
Close enough. He lives in Lakewood.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 29, 2020, 11:34:41 PM
Why is it that you insist on waiting till there is "Significant community spread" to wear a mask?
Wouldn't that be too late?

Because this is how the frum community deals with every issue. We wait until it's a crisis before we're ok with doing something about, or even just acknowledging, the issue. OTD? Drugs? Mental health? School acceptance? Seminaries? Shidduch? Weddings? Finances? Literally everything needs to be a crisis before we wake up. And that's when the panic really begins.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yitzgar on August 29, 2020, 11:38:40 PM
Because this is how the frum community deals with every issue. We wait until it's a crisis before we're ok with doing something about, or even just acknowledging, the issue. OTD? Drugs? Mental health? School acceptance? Seminaries? Shidduch? Weddings? Finances? Literally everything needs to be a crisis before we wake up. And that's when the panic really begins.
I don't blame people for not being aware at the time of the first wave. But this time you have to literally have your brain shut off not to try to at least take simple, easy steps to prevent it from happening again. Nobody is calling for a shutdown. Everyone outside of new York and Lakewood have been doing these things for the past few months. It's really not that hard to limit capacity of indoor places just a little bit, wear a mask, and not throw big parties.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: SayWhat on August 29, 2020, 11:40:17 PM
Literally everywhere democrat city in the United States (and probably many other countries), everyone is wearing masks when indoors in public places. The one major exception is Jewish communities in NY/NJ. Must be because of how smart we are....
It's unfortunate that wearing a mask has become a political issue, this should have nothing to do with politics. 
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: YitzyS on August 29, 2020, 11:41:54 PM
Close enough. He lives in Lakewood.
Maybe. But my rock is much newer than your rock, and it's an XLE with leather seats and built-in wifi!
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 29, 2020, 11:42:41 PM
It's unfortunate that wearing a mask has become a political issue, this should have nothing to do with politics.
Good luck getting that cat back into the bag
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yitzgar on August 29, 2020, 11:42:47 PM
It's unfortunate that wearing a mask has become a political issue, this should have nothing to do with politics.
It's not a political issue. The non-maskers are trying to create that narrative but if you get out more, you will see that it is false
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 29, 2020, 11:43:10 PM
I don't blame people for not being aware at the time of the first wave. But this time you have to literally have your brain shut off not to try to at least take simple, easy steps to prevent it from happening again. Nobody is calling for a shutdown. Everyone outside of new York and Lakewood have been doing these things for the past few months. It's really not that hard to limit capacity of indoor places just a little bit, wear a mask, and not throw big parties.

I'm not talking avoiding things that can't be foreseen. I'm talking about reacting to avoidable crises while they are still relatively manageable issues.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 29, 2020, 11:49:16 PM
From talk with neighbors and family, it seems like a good portion of Lakewood is aware of the spike. That's basically all we can hope for at this point - awareness. Public mandates aren't going to work anymore.

(Restrictions on weddings are something which can/should be addressed via caterers/wedding halls.)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ari3 on August 29, 2020, 11:53:30 PM
Yup they all know they got it at weddings. Doesn't that tell you that something should be changed at weddings?
Good point

A vast majority of new cases seem to be directly related to weddings, OOT guests or a combination of the two. While there has been some lame attempts to create some awareness in regard to OOT guests there has been nothןng about חתונות. Why?

A better question during the height of corona if you davened in a shul people called you a rotzeiach yet noone said anything about the חתונות that continued to go on (obviously in a much more toned down version). A backyard minyan with 10-20 people with SD was definitely safer than a backyard חתונה. Letters were written about the aiva generated by davening with a minyan but nothing said about חתונות that IMHO generated a lot more aiva. Lag bomer many chasunos took place indoors with no SD and most people not wearing masks, all while almost all shuls were still closed.

Another problem is being that חתונות are private events they are very hard to regulate. Also at a time of simcha people let their guard down and aren't interested in restrictions.

Bottom line people not wearing masks in shul, yeshiva, or the store is not whats causing new cases and noone is willing to do anything about חתונות
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 29, 2020, 11:56:57 PM
Good point

A vast majority of new cases seem to be directly related to weddings, OOT guests or a combination of the two. While there has been some lame attempts to create some awareness in regard to OOT guests there has been nothןng about חתונות. Why?

A better question during the height of corona if you davened in a shul people called you a rotzeiach yet noone said anything about the חתונות that continued to go on (obviously in a much more toned down version). A backyard minyan with 10-20 people with SD was definitely safer than a backyard חתונה. Letters were written about the aiva generated by davening with a minyan but nothing said about חתונות that IMHO generated a lot more aiva. Lag bomer many chasunos took place indoors with no SD and most people not wearing masks, all while almost all shuls were still closed.

Another problem is being that חתונות are private events they are very hard to regulate. Also at a time of simcha people let their guard down and aren't interested in restrictions.

Bottom line people not wearing masks in shul, yeshiva, or the store is not whats causing new cases and noone is willing to do anything about חתונות

People said plenty about chasunos back then. It didn't get as much coverage as shuls because, unlike shuls, there was no one defending weddings, so there were no arguments.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yitzgar on August 29, 2020, 11:58:31 PM
From talk with neighbors and family, it seems like a good portion of Lakewood is aware of the spike. That's basically all we can hope for at this point - awareness. Public mandates aren't going to work anymore.

(Restrictions on weddings are something which can/should be addressed via caterers/wedding halls.)
+1
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yzj on August 30, 2020, 12:25:05 AM

Maybe the doctors would be better off using their resources to combat some of the misinformation and educate the community about the basic facts. You have a very prominent personage telling people that no one died of Covid; the doctors killed them all in the hospitals, and that the fact that one doesnít hear of many childhood leukemia diagnosis in the past few months is evidence that they were caused by vaccinations, or that masks make people sick. Others are telling people that the whole aiva parsha was a lie- it never happened that doctors and nurses blamed it on minyanim etc. Itís time for a fact checking and public information campaign in those areas. That would be a good use of resources at this time.

Those claiming that doctors killed everyone must have a hard time explaining all those  people who died without making it to the hospital. There are so many anecdotes of aiva from Bikur Cholim and others who were in the hospitals. Maybe someone can provide these prominent people with the facts.
The mask thing might be referring to reports of headaches and lowered oxygen levels by those wearing masks for extended periods. Leukemia? Vaccinations? ?!?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: 4yourinfo on August 30, 2020, 09:59:01 AM
Yup they all know they got it at weddings. Doesn't that tell you that something should be changed at weddings?
How about we ask the people that got the virus at the weddings what they did. I've been by weddings where there was a completely care free attitude hugging/kissing etc. Before we Jump to conclusions where the wedding has to be, who can come, what you have to wear... Maybe let's limit the hugging and kissing that may just be the culprit. We are now 2 + weeks into this "Spike" and nothing changed SD and the spike seems to be contained to weddings/simchas (or camps which are over) so let's just fix that and stop screaming about the masks, sd everywhere else.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 30, 2020, 10:12:58 AM
How about we ask the people that got the virus at the weddings what they did. I've been by weddings where there was a completely care free attitude hugging/kissing etc. Before we Jump to conclusions where the wedding has to be, who can come, what you have to wear... Maybe let's limit the hugging and kissing that may just be the culprit. We are now 2 + weeks into this "Spike" and nothing changed SD and the spike seems to be contained to weddings/simchas (or camps which are over) so let's just fix that and stop screaming about the masks, sd everywhere else.
But what if there are other actions at the wedding that are the culprit?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 30, 2020, 10:18:57 AM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/first-report-local-yeshiva-sends-home-all-students-after-rebbe-tests-positive-for-covid.html
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 30, 2020, 10:20:53 AM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/first-report-local-yeshiva-sends-home-all-students-after-rebbe-tests-positive-for-covid.html
Who could have predicted that one?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Moshe123 on August 30, 2020, 10:24:52 AM
Who could have predicted that one?

You know chadarim are open for months already?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 30, 2020, 10:27:44 AM
You know chadarim are open for months already?
Right. Are you having difficulty with numbers? The number of cases has been more than doubling weekly for a month. Did you really not think this was going to happen? Is your cognitive dissonance THAT BAD?


THis isn't isolated either. I know of another similar case.


Is having a full blown wedding really THAT important? We can risk health to unkowns to keep yeshivos open but can't change weddings to keep them pen? That leads me to question how much was really concern about yeshivos and shuls and not just "wanting to get out".
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 30, 2020, 10:31:45 AM
BREAKING UPDATE: UPDATE: Another school sent home an entire class as well after a student came down with Covid, TLS has learned. Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 30, 2020, 10:33:53 AM
BREAKING UPDATE: UPDATE: Another school sent home an entire class as well after a student came down with Covid, TLS has learned.
This might be the other case I was referring to. @Moshe123 do you think this will be the end of it?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Baruch on August 30, 2020, 11:42:20 AM
So, because weddings have to have 1000 people that wish they weren't there, all the Schools may close. Brilliant.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 30, 2020, 12:23:53 PM
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 30, 2020, 01:35:22 PM
Thats great news which brings it to 1.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 30, 2020, 02:11:52 PM
Keep in mind that there have been 70 confirmed cases in the last 2 weeks. That doesn't include the many people we know who are not getting tested. That doesn't include people from surrounding areas who are in and out of Lakewood daily. That doesn't include the people from the greater Tri-state area or OOT who were infected at Lakewood events. 70 is the lowest possible number we're dealing with.

Putting aside the risk to the greater community for a second, let's assume the spread doesn't get too crazy, just doubles for the next few weeks. We'd still only be seeing 100 cases this week, 200 the next, and 400 the next. Even if it doesn't double, and we only see 300 cases in 3 weeks. Do you understand that this would mean many hundreds, if not thousand, of people who won't be able to go to shul on Rosh Hashana? Every sick case, plus their families and close contacts, will have to quarantine. On top of that, all of the mid-to-high risk people will have to stay hone because there are too many cases in the community for them to go to public places like shuls. So there won't be a repeat of March and there won't be a situation where the whole community has it. How many people need to have their Yomim Noraim ruined? How many people need to miss out on davening with a minyan? How many families need to spend Tishrei isolated or worrying about a hospitalized family member? Is it really too much to ask people to take some precautions for 6 weeks? Wear a mask? Keep the weddings smaller?

Enough is enough.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 30, 2020, 02:15:23 PM
Keep in mind that there have been 70 confirmed cases in the last 2 weeks. That doesn't include the many people we know who are not getting tested. That doesn't include people from surrounding areas who are in and out of Lakewood daily. That doesn't include the people from the greater Tri-state area or OOT who were infected at Lakewood events. 70 is the lowest possible number we're dealing with.

Putting aside the risk to the greater community for a second, let's assume the spread doesn't get too crazy, just doubles for the next few weeks. We'd still only be seeing 100 cases this week, 200 the next, and 400 the next. Even if it doesn't double, and we only see 300 cases in 3 weeks. Do you understand that this would mean many hundreds, if not thousand, of people who won't be able to go to shul on Rosh Hashana? Every sick case, plus their families and close contacts, will have to quarantine. On top of that, all of the mid-to-high risk people will have to stay hone because there are too many cases in the community for them to go to public places like shuls. So there won't be a repeat of March and there won't be a situation where the whole community has it. How many people need to have their Yomim Noraim ruined? How many people need to miss out on davening with a minyan? How many families need to spend Tishrei isolated or worrying about a hospitalized family member? Is it really too much to ask people to take some precautions for 6 weeks? Wear a mask? Keep the weddings smaller?

Enough is enough.
You really need help, refuah shleima.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 30, 2020, 02:20:04 PM
You really need help, refuah shleima.

Which part of my post do you feel warrants calling me sick? Break it down for me.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 30, 2020, 02:20:58 PM
You really need help, refuah shleima.
Coming from someone advocating lockdown since we reached 20 per week.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 30, 2020, 02:21:39 PM
My wife took our children to the playground today, where she met someone who told her that her cousinís wedding is scheduled for tonight and the Kallah tested positive this morning (caught from a sibling who came back from camp).
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 30, 2020, 02:22:02 PM
Coming from someone advocating lockdown since we reached 20 per week.
I said we can re assess. Lockdowns ain't happening.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 30, 2020, 02:24:57 PM
I said we can re assess. Lockdowns ain't happening.

I'm still waiting for a breakdown of where you think my post warranted me needing a refuah sheleimah.

And there were 20 cases 2 weeks ago and 50 cases last week. How have you reassessed? What are you recommending be done different than a month ago?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 30, 2020, 02:25:40 PM
I said we can re assess. Lockdowns ain't happening.
We all know that any level of concern expressed by anyone is something you consider to be advocating full lockdown so your concern must be the same.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on August 30, 2020, 02:26:06 PM
Which part of my post do you feel warrants calling me sick? Break it down for me.
Thr part that you've been sitting here for months waiting, hoping, and yearning for a breakout. Now that cases are popping up your jumping for joy with all your grand plans of how your really smarter and can fix things. Let everyone live nobody cares what anybody on ddf posts. Shuls will be open regular, so will schools and weddings. Whether any of these things change will have less than 0% of anything to do with your posting fear mongering messages. If you really want to make a difference open a tehillim and say a few perakim that everyone should be healthy.... its elul.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 30, 2020, 02:26:42 PM
I'm still waiting for a breakdown of where you think my post warranted me needing a refuah sheleimah.

And there were 20 cases 2 weeks ago and 50 cases last week. How have you reassessed? What are you recommending be done different than a month ago?
He reassessed that he moved the goalpost.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: SayWhat on August 30, 2020, 02:27:28 PM
You really need help, refuah shleima.
You are the one that really needs help. If he is wrong people wore a mask unnecessarily if you are wrong....?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 30, 2020, 02:33:14 PM
Thr part that you've been sitting here for months waiting, hoping, and yearning for a breakout. Now that cases are popping up your jumping for joy with all your grand plans of how your really smarter and can fix things. Let everyone live nobody cares what anybody on ddf posts. Shuls will be open regular, so will schools and weddings. Whether any of these things change will have less than 0% of anything to do with your posting fear mongering messages. If you really want to make a difference open a tehillim and say a few perakim that everyone should be healthy.... its elul.

1. You decide that I've been "sitting here for months waiting, hoping, and yearning for a breakout" and that I'm "jumping for joy" that cases are popping up in Lakewood, and I'M THE ONE who needs a refuah sheleimah????

2. I'm not smarter than everyone and I can't fix anything. The only thing I can do is beg people to take some precautions, which I didn't come up with and can take no credit for.

3. No is is looking to close shuls or schools. They are looking to keep them open. Massive weddings and people brushing off medical advice will have the opposite effect.

4. Say what you want about DDF posts, but you respond to mine pretty religiously. Except when I ask you a question. Then you usually go silent.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: YitzyS on August 30, 2020, 02:42:35 PM
My wife took our children to the playground today, where she met someone who told her that her cousinís wedding is scheduled for tonight and the Kallah tested positive this morning (caught from a sibling who came back from camp).
A 'like' on such a post doesn't mean that I like it.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 30, 2020, 03:56:55 PM
7 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 30, 2020, 04:06:44 PM
https://agudah.org/agudath-israel-statement-on-uptick-in-covid-19-cases/
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 30, 2020, 04:35:35 PM
https://agudah.org/agudath-israel-statement-on-uptick-in-covid-19-cases/

It is seeming more and more like things are coming to a choice between a temporary "living life as normal" and keeping shuls and yeshivos open. Which do you choose?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Dawie on August 30, 2020, 04:41:16 PM
My wife took our children to the playground today, where she met someone who told her that her cousinís wedding is scheduled for tonight and the Kallah tested positive this morning (caught from a sibling who came back from camp).
and? is the wedding happening? is it being indoors? are they taking any precautions?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yzj on August 30, 2020, 05:06:14 PM
https://agudah.org/agudath-israel-statement-on-uptick-in-covid-19-cases/
Not always on board with the Agudahs response to covid but this is exactly what needs to be put out. Weddings are a real problem as is and should be addressed. They have the potential to jeopardize everything else that we have made strides in the past few months even in places that may have herd immunity. Kal Vachomer that they can infect people from other communities that are still susceptible.

I have been to several shiva houses in Lakewood recently and the houses are often jammed with many menachmim with no social distancing. Being that many of the aveilim and menachamim are often from different communities I would imagine that there is the same potential for spread as there is with weddings, albeit on a smaller scale. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on August 30, 2020, 05:54:01 PM
My brother is in a small mesivta in Lakewood, and his Rosh Yeshiva tested positive today.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on August 30, 2020, 06:45:13 PM
and? is the wedding happening? is it being indoors? are they taking any precautions?
They couldn't possibly take enough precautions.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Dawie on August 30, 2020, 06:49:30 PM
They couldn't possibly take enough precautions.
the question is, in light of the diagnosis, is the wedding going on?
in most cases they are, in some form or another
There was the one in LTC parking lot
another outside in new cheder hall
another in Neemas
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: av83 on August 30, 2020, 06:56:09 PM
the question is, in light of the diagnosis, is the wedding going on?
in most cases they are, in some form or another
There was the one in LTC parking lot
another outside in new cheder hall
another in Neemas
LTC parking lot was Misamchei Lev Y't distribution.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Dawie on August 30, 2020, 06:59:32 PM
LTC parking lot was Misamchei Lev Y't distribution.
-1
There was a wedding moved from Cheder
It was even on Lakewood News Network
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 30, 2020, 07:21:46 PM
LTC parking lot was Misamchei Lev Y't distribution.
He's talking about a wedding a couple weeks ago.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 30, 2020, 07:23:05 PM
It's sad that this is a thing going around Whatsapp...

(https://i.postimg.cc/BQ7WWBmN/Screenshot-20200830-192106-2.png) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on August 30, 2020, 07:24:55 PM
the question is, in light of the diagnosis, is the wedding going on?
in most cases they are, in some form or another
There was the one in LTC parking lot
another outside in new cheder hall
another in Neemas
Well, that seems criminal.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: gozalim on August 30, 2020, 08:13:44 PM
It's sad that this is a thing going around Whatsapp...

(https://i.postimg.cc/BQ7WWBmN/Screenshot-20200830-192106-2.png) (https://postimages.org/)

and there's shailos being raised now on recent geirim now wearing masks...

/s
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: grodnoking on August 30, 2020, 08:17:20 PM
It's sad that this is a thing going around Whatsapp...

(https://i.postimg.cc/BQ7WWBmN/Screenshot-20200830-192106-2.png) (https://postimages.org/)
You think it's sad, I think it's hilarious!
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: EliJelly on August 30, 2020, 08:26:37 PM
You think it's sad, I think it's hilarious!
No joking with this mask thing sir
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on August 30, 2020, 09:22:16 PM
No joking with this mask thing sir

Mask jokes are great, posted one the other day. This joke wasn't about masks...
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 31, 2020, 12:17:04 PM
Quote
(SCHOOL NAME) Due to recent developments with regard to large adult gatherings we have postponed orientation until after Yom Tov. Rebbeim and teachers will be contacting all parents. Besuros Tovos.

From a school in Lakewood. Heard that a few schools have done this.
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 31, 2020, 01:58:28 PM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/urgent-letter-to-the-lakewood-community-from-dr-jonathan-cohen-with-addendum-from-dr-shanik.html
Wow the first couple paragraphs.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on August 31, 2020, 02:05:45 PM
My chavrusaís brother attended a wedding 2 weeks ago. The day afterwards he was contacted by his uncle who informed him that after feeling ill he tested and was positive. This brother kept going about his routine afterwards, albeit with a mask, including attending another wedding last week. Last Thursday his wife was admitted to the hospital.. and tested positive for COVID. They didnít test him but itís likely he gave it to her.

A Hatzalah member informed me that there was at least one CODE-19 call yesterday.

A class in my brotherís grade in one of the largest Chadorim in Lakewood sent everyone home after a classmate tested positive.

A neighborís wedding was moved outdoors after the Kallahís nearly whole family tested positive. They all attended- but it was outdoors and they remained behind a plexiglass. The dancing was indoors for those with antibodies only, but it soon degenerated to all welcome. I hope and pray those positive remained outside.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on August 31, 2020, 03:55:47 PM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/urgent-letter-to-the-lakewood-community-from-dr-jonathan-cohen-with-addendum-from-dr-shanik.html (https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/08/urgent-letter-to-the-lakewood-community-from-dr-jonathan-cohen-with-addendum-from-dr-shanik.html)
Wow the first couple paragraphs.
Doctors Cohen and Lempel submitted today the following letter to TLS:
As we began our internal medicine practice in Lakewood in January 1986, we made a verbal commitment to Rabbi Shmuel Blech to service and provide the highest quality medical care to the greater Lakewood community. In accordance with this mission, we must now publicly express our viewpoint regarding the developing reemergence of Covid infections in our community.

Until this point, we have allowed other physicians to speak publicly, but they have voiced concern for asserting the appropriate message due to fear of ďbacklash from the communityĒ. We, however, fear backlash from the Ribono Shel Olam if we donít clearly proclaim our viewpoint and reduce illness & perhaps death.
All adults and children, who can, should wear masks-whether or not they have had Covid infections in the past-at all times when indoors and when outdoors in groups. Social distancing of 6 feet or more should be religiously upheld. Senior citizens and those with comorbidities and immunosuppression should avoid contact with anyone who does not observe these restrictions.

It is imperative that anyone with symptoms of sore throat, cough, fever, or fatigue, headaches, muscle aches, or loss of smell or taste should immediately quarantine and contact their physician.

Addendum from Dr. Shanik:

I want to stress the importance of:

Ė Avoiding social gatherings
Ė Maintaining social distancing
Ė Using masks in public settings ie: shopping, school, shulÖ

We must do whatever we can to stop the spread of Corona virus in our community.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on August 31, 2020, 04:20:36 PM
TAG just put out guidelines that any student or staff member attending a wedding will need to stay out of school for 8 days....
This is what we need Lakewood to implement.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on August 31, 2020, 06:46:37 PM
18 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 01, 2020, 05:28:34 PM
17 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 06:02:52 PM
17 new cases via OCHD.
18 new cases via OCHD.

35 cases in 2 days. Are we there yet?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 01, 2020, 06:13:53 PM
35 cases in 2 days. Are we there yet?
Weíll be there soon shefela.

All kidding aside the source of these cases is far more important than the actual numbers which themselves are not particularly high....
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 06:16:12 PM
Weíll be there soon shefela.

All kidding aside the source of these cases is far more important than the actual numbers which themselves are not particularly high....

It's not about high numbers, it's about a trend. If the numbers keep doubling, there's a problem. If the numbers are high, it's too late.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 01, 2020, 06:17:48 PM
It's not about high numbers, it's about a trend. If the numbers keep doubling, there's a problem. If the numbers are high, it's too late.
Trend is important. Method of transmission is far more important. Community spread would be on a different scale....
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 06:23:26 PM
Trend is important. Method of transmission is far more important. Community spread would be on a different scale....

Let's say you're right. Community spread hasn't really happened on a large scale yet. Let's say the numbers double over the next couple of weeks to about 300-400 confirmed cases. Then comes hours of davening for 2 days in a row over Rosh Hashana, along with meals with guests and visitors. How is this different from early March, leading up to our mass spreader events on Purim?

We keep saying it won't happen again, because this time we know what to look for. If we keep on ignoring the red flags, what use are they?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 06:27:45 PM
This email was sent out by my shul earlier this week

Message from the Rov

As there has been a recent uptick in positive COVID test results in Lakewood, itís important at this time to remember the basic achrayus that we have as a community to prevent spread of the virus in our kehilla. Anyone with a household member who has tested positive, as well as anyone who has been exposed to a person who has tested positive, should not come to Shul for 11 days from the time of exposure. If you are confirmed to possess antibodies or if you have other case-specific questions, you must speak to our neighbor PA ------- --------- at XXX.XXX-XXXX for an exemption.

Thank you.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 06:30:59 PM
This email was sent out by my shul earlier this week

Message from the Rov

As there has been a recent uptick in positive COVID test results in Lakewood, itís important at this time to remember the basic achrayus that we have as a community to prevent spread of the virus in our kehilla. Anyone with a household member who has tested positive, as well as anyone who has been exposed to a person who has tested positive, should not come to Shul for 11 days from the time of exposure. If you are confirmed to possess antibodies or if you have other case-specific questions, you must speak to our neighbor PA ------- --------- at XXX.XXX-XXXX for an exemption.

Thank you.

Any movement on masks?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 06:36:06 PM
Any movement on masks?
Nope
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 01, 2020, 06:41:27 PM
Weíll be there soon shefela.

All kidding aside the source of these cases is far more important than the actual numbers which themselves are not particularly high....
I think we (DDF) are undercounting since we are only using Lakewood numbers and not including TR/Jackson.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 06:42:44 PM
I think we (DDF) are undercounting since we are only using Lakewood numbers and not including TR/Jackson.
Lakewood also includes many who aren't from our community.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 06:43:49 PM
I think we (DDF) are undercounting since we are only using Lakewood numbers and not including TR/Jackson.

And also only confirmed cases. There's no way to really know how many people aren't getting tested.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 06:44:46 PM
Lakewood also includes many who aren't from our community.

Chemed's numbers were pretty close to OCHD over the last couple of weeks, IINM.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 01, 2020, 07:04:01 PM
Let's say you're right. Community spread hasn't really happened on a large scale yet. Let's say the numbers double over the next couple of weeks to about 300-400 confirmed cases. Then comes hours of davening for 2 days in a row over Rosh Hashana, along with meals with guests and visitors. How is this different from early March, leading up to our mass spreader events on Purim?

We keep saying it won't happen again, because this time we know what to look for. If we keep on ignoring the red flags, what use are they?
We are running at around 100 cases a week. Positives are infectious  for around 10 days from symptom onset (other than severe illness) so double the number is actually closer to 200. The question is if the events of March are replicable, or if there is enough immunity to preclude that from happening. Either way, putting elderly or immunocompromised individuals in large minyanim for hours at a time is asking for trouble for those individuals. But at this point there is no reason to assume that a hundred cases will explode into thousands as they did in March.
 
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 08:27:30 PM
We are running at around 100 cases a week. Positives are infectious  for around 10 days from symptom onset (other than severe illness) so double the number is actually closer to 200. The question is if the events of March are replicable, or if there is enough immunity to preclude that from happening. Either way, putting elderly or immunocompromised individuals in large minyanim for hours at a time is asking for trouble for those individuals. But at this point there is no reason to assume that a hundred cases will explode into thousands as they did in March.

We're doubling weekly, and there are 20 days til RH. Even if we double every 10 days, 100 x 2 = 200, 200 x 2 = 400.

We're differing over semantics and math. So let's say there won't be as many cases as March. Let's say we get only half. You're ok with that? The point is, this is how this virus spreads. We've watched happen over and over and over again all around this country and around the world. Sitting back and giving excuses for why it won't be so bad instead of nipping it in the bud is just irresponsible.

ETA: you can tell the higher risk people to stay home all you want, but if they look out their windows, they'll see business as usual. To paraphrase quite a few members here, "the data doesn't matter and neither does the science. God gave me eyes and I can see the reality in front of me. The reality in Lakewood right now is that everything is normal. The virus must not be here." Oh, and keeping high risk people home may help with the death rate, but people will still get infected and be left to deal with all the long-term effects.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Kobe Bryant on September 01, 2020, 08:31:14 PM
It is in an email from a local pediatrician to patients and others who signed up for the newsletter. Someone changed the first word of the paragraph from CHEMED to Doctors but the rest is verbatim.

This is the prior paragraph.
If we reached the point that even @yaakov35 is calling for a lockdown and fearmongering then maybe we should open our eyes.
How is lockdown even part of a rational conversation?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Kobe Bryant on September 01, 2020, 08:55:31 PM
Literally everywhere in the United States (and probably many other countries), everyone is wearing masks when indoors in public places. The one major exception is Jewish communities in NY/NJ. Must be because of how smart we are....
Absolutely False.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 01, 2020, 09:24:01 PM
We are running at around 100 cases a week. Positives are infectious  for around 10 days from symptom onset (other than severe illness) so double the number is actually closer to 200. The question is if the events of March are replicable, or if there is enough immunity to preclude that from happening. Either way, putting elderly or immunocompromised individuals in large minyanim for hours at a time is asking for trouble for those individuals. But at this point there is no reason to assume that a hundred cases will explode into thousands as they did in March.
When trying to claim that somehow Denmark has it worse than Sweden, all you pointed to was ďtrendĒ.
When trying to claim it could never happen to Lakewood, all you said was that you need emunah to believe otherwise. Suggesting otherwise was hysterical and fear-mongering.
When trying to claim the US was overstating the infection growth, you said only percent positive matters.
When trying to claim reopening wouldnít matter, you said it hasnít happened yet in Florida, Israel, and Georgia.
When trying to claim Florida wasnít so bad, you said only deaths matter.
When trying to claim deaths were misrepresented, you said only new hospitalizations matter.


Lakewood has months with 0-3 cases a week.
3 weeks ago there was suddenly a spike: 12 cases.
2 weeks ago, it doubled to 25.
Last week, it doubled to 50.
Itís Monday night, and weíve already surpassed 35 confirmed cases. Iíll take better than even odds weíre going to break 100 this week. You just suggested as much yourself.

Now youíre claiming itís not ďcommunity spreadĒ (with zero evidence), and maybe thereís enough immunity to stop it from exploding like March (a straw man, as March is not the cut off of it being too bad to tolerate. March was the single worst month for the frum community in a century. Many fewer hospitalizations and deaths warrant a drastic response).

When does your circular logic finally show you that itís time to act? Many doctors have now come out on the record, as well as Hatzalah, despite the fear of backlash. It seems some shuls have started to spread the message as well, though the silence and complete noncompliance of many is deafening.

If this is not enough, what is? Is it 1000 cases? 40 hospitalizations? 2 deaths? 20 cases of proven ďcommunity spreadĒ?

If thereís any lesson we really *should* learn from March, itís that the speed at which this virus doubles exponentially warrants acting *before* it seems justified, not *after*.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jerseysteve on September 01, 2020, 09:36:09 PM
There is no doubt that certain measures that minimally impact quality of life should be started now. Stop the הפקרות by weddings - we know that most cases are traced back to them.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 01, 2020, 09:40:32 PM
There is no doubt that certain measures that minimally impact quality of life should be started now. Stop the הפקרות by weddings - we know that most cases are traced back to them.
The Simcha industry is very large (and powerful?).
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 01, 2020, 09:42:47 PM
There is no doubt that certain measures that minimally impact quality of life should be started now. Stop the הפקרות by weddings - we know that most cases are traced back to them.
Absolutely, and that is what everyone is calling for!

1) Stop the jammed, indoor, reckless Simchos mixing in and out of town people with no regard for distancing measures
2) Wear masks
3) If you have symptoms, stay home and get tested
4) If positive or exposed to someone positive, STAY HOME and let your close contacts know

Itís not longer embarrassing to have COVID, you donít need to be ashamed. Itís not hard to obtain a test. Ignorance is no longer an excuse. These are easy measures that donít destroy our economy and allow maximum utility with minimal pain. No lockdown, shutting everything down, closing schools and babysitters, shuls, stores, etc.

Just. Use. Brains.
The Simcha industry is very large (and powerful?).

Youíre right. But I am in the Simcha industry. I agree with him.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 09:43:33 PM
There is no doubt that certain measures that minimally impact quality of life should be started now. Stop the הפקרות by weddings - we know that most cases are traced back to them.
The problem is some here will jump to "everyone should wear masks" while claiming there is minimal impact on quality of life and the conversation comes to an abrupt end.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 01, 2020, 09:47:23 PM
The problem is some here will jump to "everyone should wear masks" while claiming there is minimal impact on quality of life and the conversation comes to an abrupt end.
It should.. wearing masks has no significant impact on individuals and is very effective. Neither of those facts are in dispute. There isnít a doctor alive who disagrees. There is no pain to the economy, no lack of davening or other ruchniyus pain, no schools closed, nothing. No government tyranny. None of the excuses used to argue against COVID measures hold up against it- we are not discussing the government telling us what to do, we are discussing the community deciding upon this for themselves. There is absolutely zero excuse to not wear a mask. Itís mind-blowing that itís become politicized and is now even debatable. Talebís law of categorization.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jerseysteve on September 01, 2020, 09:48:04 PM
The problem is some here will jump to "everyone should wear masks" while claiming there is minimal impact on quality of life and the conversation comes to an abrupt end.

They already have....
However the other steps outlined bove should be followed. Anecdotally there are many more cases in Lakewood amoung Bochurim that are going untested - the time to act is now.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 09:49:02 PM
It sounds like the bigger issue is people who have the virus as well as people who know they had significant contact with infected people who would rather make believe nothing happened. I'm hearing about a wedding (I don't think it was in lakewood) where the shaitel macher tested positive the morning of the wedding (presumably passed it on to the kallah a few days before the wedding) and now 10 of the kallahs friends tested positive.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 09:50:30 PM
It sounds like the bigger issue is people who have the virus as well as people who know they had significant contact with infected people who would rather make believe nothing happened. I'm hearing about a wedding (I don't think it was in lakewood) where the shaitel macher tested positive the morning of the wedding (presumably passed it on to the kallah a few days before the wedding) and now 10 of the kallahs friends tested positive.

Do you think any of this would be preventable if everyone was wearing masks? You can't ignore the #1 tool we have at our disposal.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 01, 2020, 09:52:28 PM
It sounds like the bigger issue is people who have the virus as well as people who know they had significant contact with infected people who would rather make believe nothing happened. I'm hearing about a wedding (I don't think it was in lakewood) where the shaitel macher tested positive the morning of the wedding (presumably passed it on to the kallah a few days before the wedding) and now 10 of the kallahs friends tested positive.
+100000000

THIS!! I keep hearing similar stories. This is the number one most basic thing that should not be debated yet so many are acting like itís normal! Sorry, but itís the epitome of selfishness.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 09:55:53 PM
It should.. wearing masks has no significant impact on individuals and is very effective. Neither of those facts are in dispute. There isnít a doctor alive who disagrees. There is no pain to the economy, no lack of davening or other ruchniyus pain, no schools closed, nothing. No government tyranny. None of the excuses used to argue against COVID measures hold up against it- we are not discussing the government telling us what to do, we are discussing the community deciding upon this for themselves. There is absolutely zero excuse to not wear a mask. Itís mind-blowing that itís become politicized and is now even debatable. Talebís law of categorization.
Masks have a significant impact on quality of life. Maybe while going to the store (especially while wearing the least effective mask available) it's not too terrible, but try teaching a class full of children while wearing a mask and making sure the children wear masks. I don't know about you, but I can't fathom enjoying a wedding while forced to wear a mask. What about while working out? To say masks have no effect  on quality of life is downright ridiculous.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jerseysteve on September 01, 2020, 09:56:23 PM
Masks are very uncomfortable however יותר יש לאדם ליזהר עצמו שלא יזיק משלא יוזק, and for the sake of our Schools remaining open.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 09:57:36 PM
Do you think any of this would be preventable if everyone was wearing masks? You can't ignore the #1 tool we have at our disposal.
TBH I don't think that would solve the problem, that's why I think the letter my shul sent out is much more important than a mask mandate. It also (helps) solve the issue without effecting quality of life.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 01, 2020, 09:58:22 PM
Instead of sitting on their hands all summer, schools should've been preparing for this possibility. Plexiglass dividers, proper thought out protocols etc.

Instead we are getting hasty, reactionary measures.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yelped on September 01, 2020, 09:59:16 PM
Masks have a significant impact on quality of life. Maybe while going to the store (especially while wearing the least effective mask available) it's not too terrible, but try teaching a class full of children while wearing a mask and making sure the children wear masks. I don't know about you, but I can't fathom enjoying a wedding while forced to wear a mask. What about while working out? To say masks have no effect  on quality of life is downright ridiculous.
If we only wore masks while shopping and when davening in minyanim centers, and stop the hefkeris at Simchas, it would already curtail the spread of the virus significantly.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 01, 2020, 10:02:51 PM
How is lockdown even part of a rational conversation?
Ask him not me.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 10:05:50 PM
If we only wore masks while shopping and when davening in minyanim centers, and stop the hefkeris at Simchas, it would already curtail the spread of the virus significantly.
I didn't include minyanim in my list because I think that's a significant quality of life issue.

I really think we're barking up the wrong tree and trying to resolve the symptom but not fight the problem which is people who have significant reason to believe they can be spreading the virus yet choose to make believe nothing happened.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 10:06:14 PM
TBH I don't think that would solve the problem, that's why I think the letter my shul sent out is much more important than a mask mandate. It also (helps) solve the issue without effecting quality of life.

The issue with this virus is that there is a lot of spread prior to symptoms or positive test results. Take your shaitelmacher. She tested positive days after infecting a kallah. Knowing to self quarantine after experiencing symptoms probably wouldn't have helped there. Wearing a mask gives the kallah a very good chance of not getting infected, and an even better chance of not infecting her 10 friends. Who knows how many people got it from those 10 friends...

I get the discomfort. Stand outside with a mask in Florida in the middle of July or August... trust me, I get the discomfort. Even in optimal weather, it's tough. But when you look at the consequences your inaction can bring about, how is comfort a valid argument here?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 01, 2020, 10:08:10 PM
I don't know about you, but I can't fathom enjoying a wedding while forced to wear a mask.
Others can't fathom enjoying a wedding without "the הפקרות" Why should enjoying a wedding even be part of the calculation here?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 10:09:36 PM
The issue with this virus is that there is a lot of spread prior to symptoms or positive test results. Take your shaitelmacher. She tested positive days after infecting a kallah. Knowing to self quarantine after experiencing symptoms probably wouldn't have helped there. Wearing a mask gives the kallah a very good chance of not getting infected, and an even better chance of not infecting her 10 friends. Who knows how many people got it from those 10 friends...
Take a step back, had the shaitel macher and/or kallah not buried their head in the sand so the wedding can go on uninhibited it we never would've gotten to a situation where the kallah passed it on. If you think the kallah who made believe nothing happened is going to wear a mask I have a bridge to sell you.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 01, 2020, 10:09:59 PM
Masks have a significant impact on quality of life. Maybe while going to the store (especially while wearing the least effective mask available) it's not too terrible, but try teaching a class full of children while wearing a mask and making sure the children wear masks. I don't know about you, but I can't fathom enjoying a wedding while forced to wear a mask. What about while working out? To say masks have no effect  on quality of life is downright ridiculous.
I do have a different opinion than you, as I think masks arenít too uncomfortable. Perhaps because I was wearing a mask around 3 weeks earlier than everyone else, and exclusively N95s, I adapted to them better. They were certainly uncomfortable early on but I adjusted and the looks I got were more uncomfortable ;). It also wasnít political back then.

While I hear many grumbles I do think if one were to wear a mask for a week or two straight for many hours at a time they would get used to them to the point that they wouldnít feel them, like glasses. I point to health care workers and workers in WalMart and other stores around town who wear them all day every day as proof that anyone can get used to it. I have a niggling feeling many complaining never gave it a fair shot, and probably had a prior opinion on masks before they through it through. Look no further than asking people how uncomfortable they feel wearing a mask is- I think more Republicans than Democrats would answer ďvery uncomfortableĒ. Then again, it works both ways. Daniel Kahneman has a name for this heuristic, where people who advocate abortion are generally opposed to capital punishment because they are categorized.

That said, Iíll give you that it may be more uncomfortable for some than others even after giving it a shot. I canít comment on othersí comfort levels. Still, even if we canít mandate masks everywhere, at least in stores and other places where itís for a shorter time I think we should be strict. I hear your point about school and weddings, though weddings are a real problem.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ari3 on September 01, 2020, 10:11:05 PM
The problem is some here will jump to "everyone should wear masks" while claiming there is minimal impact on quality of life and the conversation comes to an abrupt end.
Almost all the recent cases have been tracked to weddings. Instead of adressing the issue of weddings everyone here is shouting "everyone wear masks". People don't want to wear masks all day period. Especially if that's not the problem. Addressing what actually is the problem would go much further in slowing the spread.

Problem is who is going to do something about reigning in the weddings. The Rabbonim and Rosh Yeshivos? I was at a chasuna last night with many well respected individuals in that category and they weren't wearing masks. The caterers? I don't see them doing anything? The doctors?

There is no pain to the economy, no lack of davening or other ruchniyus pain, no schools closed, nothing.

I was in an OOT community for a couple of days this summer where mask wearing is required in shul. It seemed to me most people (myself included) were spending more time adjusting their masks than concentrating on davening. I have a relative who is a rav OOT and he told me he is going to have to shorten the yomim noraim davening to the bare minimum because there is no way people are going to be able to wear a mask for a regular full yomim noraim davening.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 10:13:17 PM
Others can't fathom enjoying a wedding without "the הפקרות" Why should enjoying a wedding even be part of the calculation here?
@S209 said masks don't have a quality of life issue, that was part of my response. Once we agree they affect quality of life we can have a discussion on whether or not they're warranted.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 10:17:48 PM
I do have a different opinion than you, as I think masks arenít too uncomfortable. Perhaps because I was wearing a mask around 3 weeks earlier than everyone else, and exclusively N95s, I adapted to them better. They were certainly uncomfortable early on but I adjusted and the looks I got were more uncomfortable ;). It also wasnít political back then.

While I hear many grumbles I do think if one were to wear a mask for a week or two straight for many hours at a time they would get used to them to the point that they wouldnít feel them, like glasses. I point to health care workers and workers in WalMart and other stores around town who wear them all day every day as proof that anyone can get used to it. I have a niggling feeling many complaining never gave it a fair shot, and probably had a prior opinion on masks before they through it through. Look no further than asking people how uncomfortable they feel wearing a mask is- I think more Republicans than Democrats would answer ďvery uncomfortableĒ. Then again, it works both ways. Daniel Kahneman has a name for this heuristic, where people who advocate abortion are generally opposed to capital punishment because they are categorized.

That said, Iíll give you that it may be more uncomfortable for some than others even after giving it a shot. I canít comment on othersí comfort levels. Still, even if we canít mandate masks everywhere, at least in stores and other places where itís for a shorter time I think we should be strict. I hear your point about school and weddings, though weddings are a real problem.
I wore the Trump mask (which is much more breathable than anything else I tried) on the plane, and a few times (after "wrestling" with my kids where I exerted extra energy) I started getting a headache, almost as soon as I removed my mask (either to eat or just to breathe) the headache disappeared. After it happened twice I realized the mask was causing it.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jerseysteve on September 01, 2020, 10:17:59 PM
Bottom line is we should if there is common ground on stoping the הפקרות by weddings it should be done now - we can leave masks for another day.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 01, 2020, 10:18:21 PM
@S209 said masks don't have a quality of life issue, that was part of my response. Once we agree they affect quality of life we can have a discussion on whether or not they're warranted.
Anyone who can't understand how many would consider them very uncomfortable is being delusional. That said, the quality of life effect of masks is nowhere near that of other measures and extremely effective.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 10:19:29 PM
Take a step back, had the shaitel macher and/or kallah not buried their head in the sand so the wedding can go on uninhibited it we never would've gotten to a situation where the kallah passed it on. If you think the kallah who made believe nothing happened is going to wear a mask I have a bridge to sell you.

You're working under the assumption that both the shaitelmacher and the kallah knew they were positive and kept going along like nothing happened. That may be the case, I don't know. But you're completely ignoring asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread.

And if everyone was wearing a mask, you can bet your bottom dollar that kallah isn't about to be a yotzei min haklal.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 01, 2020, 10:20:29 PM
there is no way people are going to be able to wear a mask for a regular full yomim noraim davening.
Meanwhile JCPL has been changing the street lights on my block to bigger and brighter ones so we should be able to see at outdoor minyanim on RH and YK.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 10:22:30 PM
I hear a lot of anti-wedding sentiment, yet it seems that most people here have been to a handful of weddings in the last month. It's like this discussion is purely hypothetical.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jerseysteve on September 01, 2020, 10:24:26 PM
I hear a lot of anti-wedding sentiment, yet it seems that most people here have been to a handful of weddings in the last month. It's like this discussion is purely hypothetical.
I have been however from a risk/reward perspective it is not worth it. I would faster be מיקל on kids playing together and School.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 01, 2020, 10:25:37 PM
Almost all the recent cases have been tracked to weddings. Instead of adressing the issue of weddings everyone here is shouting "everyone wear masks".

Lies. All have first and foremost called for the lessening of recklessness at simchos. It is another opportunity to call for masking as well, yes.

People don't want to wear masks all day period. Especially if that's not the problem. Addressing what actually is the problem would go much further in slowing the spread.

Problem is who is going to do something about reigning in the weddings. The Rabbonim and Rosh Yeshivos? I was at a chasuna last night with many well respected individuals in that category and they weren't wearing masks. The caterers? I don't see them doing anything? The doctors?

The answer should be Rabbanim upon the advice of doctors. The doctors have spoken. Dr. Liebowitz from Kimball has been on the phone for days now yelling at people to move their weddings outdoors and smaller.
 
I was in an OOT community for a couple of days this summer where mask wearing is required in shul. It seemed to me most people (myself included) were spending more time adjusting their masks than concentrating on davening. I have a relative who is a rav OOT and he told me he is going to have to shorten the yomim noraim davening to the bare minimum because there is no way people are going to be able to wear a mask for a regular full yomim noraim davening.

Are you suggesting that workers in WalMart, nursing homes, every major retail store and pharmacy, doctors offices, hospitals, and pretty much all indoor functions nearby who wear masks for 8+ hour shifts are just adjusting their masks all day and canít sit for a couple of hours?

Again, I canít really pasken how much anything affects oneís quality of life. Everyone is different. I do still think most havenít given it a proper chance. I guess it might have to be a trade off between how uncomfortable one findís a mask and how important being in Shul for a whole regular Yomim Noraim davening is.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 01, 2020, 10:27:21 PM
@S209 said masks don't have a quality of life issue, that was part of my response. Once we agree they affect quality of life we can have a discussion on whether or not they're warranted.
I didnít say they have no issue, I said the effect is minimal. I can agree that others may find it to be more of an imposition.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 01, 2020, 10:29:48 PM
Lies. All have first and foremost called for the lessening of recklessness at simchos. It is another opportunity to call for masking as well, yes.

The answer should be Rabbanim upon the advice of doctors. The doctors have spoken. Dr. Liebowitz from Kimball has been on the phone for days now yelling at people to move their weddings outdoors and smaller.
 
Are you suggesting that workers in WalMart, nursing homes, every major retail store and pharmacy, doctors offices, hospitals, and pretty much all indoor functions nearby who wear masks for 8+ hour shifts are just adjusting their masks all day and canít sit for a couple of hours?

Again, I canít really pasken how much anything affects oneís quality of life. Everyone is different. I do still think most havenít given it a proper chance. I guess it might have to be a trade off between how uncomfortable one findís a mask and how important being in Shul for a whole regular Yomim Noraim davening is.

The same rabbomin that people don't listen to their anti-vax positions will be the most influential now.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 10:30:43 PM
You're working under the assumption that both the shaitelmacher and the kallah knew they were positive and kept going along like nothing happened. That may be the case, I don't know. But you're completely ignoring asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread.

And if everyone was wearing a mask, you can bet your bottom dollar that kallah isn't about to be a yotzei min haklal.
From what I understand the kallah knew the shaitel macher tested positive, and although she had significant contact with the shaitel macher she decided to go ahead with the full blown wedding without even letting anyone know she was exposed. I know I'm not discussing asymptomatic because most presymptomatic people know they were exposed and people who don't know they were exposed don't seem to be the driving force behind the major increase in cases.

I should clarify that I meant if you thought this family was going to have a wedding where everyone wears masks I  have a bridge to sell you.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 01, 2020, 10:33:54 PM
From what I understand the kallah knew the shaitel macher tested positive, and although she had significant contact with the shaitel macher she decided to go ahead with the full blown wedding without even letting anyone know she was exposed. I know I'm not discussing asymptomatic because most presymptomatic people know they were exposed and people who don't know they were exposed don't seem to be the driving force behind the major increase in cases.

I should clarify that I meant if you thought this family was going to have a wedding where everyone wears masks I  have a bridge to sell you.
I know a family that shockingly made part of their wedding outdoors and smaller last week because of someone who tested positive, despite their fiercely anti-corona opinions
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 01, 2020, 10:34:34 PM
I should clarify that I meant if you thought this family was going to have a wedding where everyone wears masks I  have a bridge to sell you.

Social convention is an amazing thing. When you create a culture that values public safety over massive chassunahs, everyone falls into line. However, when you have a culture that denies there is any threat to public safety and insists on living life like everything is normal, then you're right: there is no way people are going to change their simcha one iota.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 10:36:09 PM
I know a family that shockingly made part of their wedding outdoors and smaller last week because of someone who tested positive, despite their fiercely anti-corona opinions
But clearly this family did not, and if you tried to make them all wear masks they wouldn't either. (I have no idea who this family is, I heard about this from a relative of someone who was infected at the wedding)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 01, 2020, 11:08:44 PM
I wonder what Rav Gissinger ztl would have said about making a hachnosas sefer Torah indoors now.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 01, 2020, 11:42:02 PM
Weddings are the known specific issue right now. Focus on weddings. Not Shuls. Not masks. Weddings. Itís specific. Itís easy to explain in one sentence. Itís unambiguous. It makes sense to anyone who isnít on a different planet. Period. כל המוסיף גורע as well intentioned as they may be.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yitzgar on September 01, 2020, 11:45:16 PM
Weddings are the known specific issue right now. Focus on weddings. Not Shuls. Not masks. Weddings. Itís specific. Itís easy to explain in one sentence. Itís unambiguous. It makes sense to anyone who isnít on a different planet. Period. כל המוסיף גורע as well intentioned as they may be.
This makes no sense. Once those people are out in the community, they will spread it through shuls etc.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 01, 2020, 11:47:25 PM
When trying to claim that somehow Denmark has it worse than Sweden, all you pointed to was ďtrendĒ.
When trying to claim it could never happen to Lakewood, all you said was that you need emunah to believe otherwise. Suggesting otherwise was hysterical and fear-mongering.
When trying to claim the US was overstating the infection growth, you said only percent positive matters.
When trying to claim reopening wouldnít matter, you said it hasnít happened yet in Florida, Israel, and Georgia.
When trying to claim Florida wasnít so bad, you said only deaths matter.
When trying to claim deaths were misrepresented, you said only new hospitalizations matter.


Lakewood has months with 0-3 cases a week.
3 weeks ago there was suddenly a spike: 12 cases.
2 weeks ago, it doubled to 25.
Last week, it doubled to 50.
Itís Monday night, and weíve already surpassed 35 confirmed cases. Iíll take better than even odds weíre going to break 100 this week. You just suggested as much yourself.

Now youíre claiming itís not ďcommunity spreadĒ (with zero evidence), and maybe thereís enough immunity to stop it from exploding like March (a straw man, as March is not the cut off of it being too bad to tolerate. March was the single worst month for the frum community in a century. Many fewer hospitalizations and deaths warrant a drastic response).

When does your circular logic finally show you that itís time to act? Many doctors have now come out on the record, as well as Hatzalah, despite the fear of backlash. It seems some shuls have started to spread the message as well, though the silence and complete noncompliance of many is deafening.

If this is not enough, what is? Is it 1000 cases? 40 hospitalizations? 2 deaths? 20 cases of proven ďcommunity spreadĒ?

If thereís any lesson we really *should* learn from March, itís that the speed at which this virus doubles exponentially warrants acting *before* it seems justified, not *after*.
They are all metrics. Some have more value than others. The numbers and manner of transmission in Lakewood as far as we know merit concern, not hysteria. This is not March and April all over again and will not be. Take a deep breath and breath out slowly.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 01, 2020, 11:48:27 PM
This makes no sense. Once those people are out in the community, they will spread it through shuls etc.
The fact is almost all the spread is traced back to weddings. If you want you can try to figure out why, but there's no denying it.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 01, 2020, 11:48:59 PM
This makes no sense. Once those people are out in the community, they will spread it through shuls etc.
We are not seeing sustained significant spread in shuls over the past few weeks even when known positives have attended shul. We are seeing it by weddings.
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 01, 2020, 11:56:30 PM
I wonder what Rav Gissinger ztl would have said about making a hachnosas sefer Torah indoors now.
His presence and leadership has been sorely missed throughout this pandemic. When you have communal leaders scared of "backlash"...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 01, 2020, 11:59:42 PM
We are not seeing sustained significant spread in shuls over the past few weeks even when known positives have attended shul. We are seeing it by weddings.
There werenít many confirmed cases wandering through the city earlier. When confirmed positive cases are attending shuls, schools, stores, and all manner of indoor venues it is inevitable that spread will take place.
They are all metrics. Some have more value than others. The numbers and manner of transmission in Lakewood as far as we know merit concern, not hysteria. This is not March and April all over again and will not be. Take a deep breath and breath out slowly.
So do we have you on the record that concern is warranted? Unbelievable. I canít believe the hysterical fear mongering youíre encouraging. How dare you suggest we all lock down?!
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ari3 on September 02, 2020, 12:11:49 AM
Lies. All have first and foremost called for the lessening of recklessness at simchos. It is another opportunity to call for masking as well, yes.

Three of the longest practicing and most respected doctors in Lakewood wrote a letter raising the alarm about the recent uptick and mentioned masks and nothing about chasunos.
Lies?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 02, 2020, 12:30:56 AM
There werenít many confirmed cases wandering through the city earlier. When confirmed positive cases are attending shuls, schools, stores, and all manner of indoor venues it is inevitable that spread will take place.So do we have you on the record that concern is warranted? Unbelievable. I canít believe the hysterical fear mongering youíre encouraging. How dare you suggest we all lock down?!
Concern.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 02, 2020, 01:59:45 AM
Three of the longest practicing and most respected doctors in Lakewood wrote a letter raising the alarm about the recent uptick and mentioned masks and nothing about chasunos.
Lies?

The first 2 doctors in the letter recommend restrictions that go much further than not attending weddings. And Dr Shanik writes in his first point to avoid social gatherings, and he didnít mean you should avoid going to shul.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Moshe123 on September 02, 2020, 06:46:26 AM
‏חשיפה: מרן שר התורה הגר"ח קנייבסקי הורה כעת למספר ישיבות, לא לעשות בדיקות קורונה, זאת בשל הביטול תורה העצום שנוצר מהבלבול כתוצאה מהבדיקות והכנסתם של אלפי צעירים שאינם בסיכון לבידוד.


R' Chaim going with the Belzer shita in Israel on covid. Not really shocked, but still surprised. It's very hard to argue on how we should handle covid, when gedolei Yisrael who know what's going on, still think we should continue on in life and not follow panicked Dr. orders.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 02, 2020, 08:13:33 AM
We are not seeing sustained significant spread in shuls over the past few weeks even when known positives have attended shul. We are seeing it by weddings.

Is this true? The ability to trace back to weddings includes people who caught it at weddings spreading it elsewhere.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 02, 2020, 08:14:56 AM
‏חשיפה: מרן שר התורה הגר"ח קנייבסקי הורה כעת למספר ישיבות, לא לעשות בדיקות קורונה, זאת בשל הביטול תורה העצום שנוצר מהבלבול כתוצאה מהבדיקות והכנסתם של אלפי צעירים שאינם בסיכון לבידוד.


R' Chaim going with the Belzer shita in Israel on covid. Not really shocked, but still surprised. It's very hard to argue on how we should handle covid, when gedolei Yisrael who know what's going on, still think we should continue on in life and not follow panicked Dr. orders.

Even if the tweet is true, it does NOT say live life as usual. That is simply untrue.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 02, 2020, 09:18:00 AM
Is this true? The ability to trace back to weddings includes people who caught it at weddings spreading it elsewhere.
We have had at least a few positives who attended shul AFAIR over the last couple of months with no known spread. If we begin to see that the larger numbers of positives now do result in spread beyond immediate family members etc. that would be a much bigger issue. Right now we should focus on the weddings and the like which are a known issue.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 02, 2020, 09:20:16 AM
We have had at least a few positives who attended shul AFAIR over the last couple of months with no known spread. If we begin to see that the larger numbers of positives now do result in spread beyond immediate family members etc. that would be a much bigger issue. Right now we should focus on the weddings and the like which are a known issue.
Yes we should focus on the bigger problem now. We have a choice. Weddings or schools and shuls. We may not be able to have both. Is the full blah wedding worth have shuls closed for Yom Kippur?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 02, 2020, 09:34:37 AM
Concern.
It seems clear from your posts that all concern is hysteria and fear mongering. So please do be careful with your words. Donít want any sheeple to lose their minds worrying over the CoronaFlu or anything.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 02, 2020, 09:41:10 AM
It seems clear from your posts that all concern is hysteria and fear mongering. So please do be careful with your words. Donít want any sheeple to lose their minds worrying over the CoronaFlu or anything.

Yet both of you liked this.

Yes we should focus on the bigger problem now. We have a choice. Weddings or schools and shuls. We may not be able to have both. Is the full blah wedding worth have shuls closed for Yom Kippur?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 02, 2020, 09:50:16 AM
There clearly needs to be a multi pronged approach, such that we can avoid full blown lock down again:

1. Social distancing and masks should be mandatory indoors. Full stop.

2. Simchas should consider outdoors as much as possible, since you can't wear masks while eating. Crowds should be limited to reduce potential for superspreading events. Out of town guests shouldn't come, except in extenuating circumstances (ie immediate family). I've already had the debate about quarantine so won't rehash.

3. Events need to be cancelled if there's known exposure. This should be common sense. No wedding is worth it if you know that the chosson or Kallah were expose or tested positive.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 02, 2020, 09:56:19 AM
It seems clear from your posts that all concern is hysteria and fear mongering. So please do be careful with your words. Donít want any sheeple to lose their minds worrying over the CoronaFlu or anything.
I was raising what you could call hysteria and fear mongering on this forum early in March. The facts substantiated it. They do not currently call for anything more than concern IMO. In fact one could make the case that  the risk of unwelcome government intervention in our shuls, schools, and yeshivos is of far more concern than the actual health hazard. Thatís not to say that no one will be hospitalized or chĒv worse. Even with a small number of infections there will eventually be some. It will be an inevitable part of reopening society. But perhaps that does not rise to the level that would mandate significant impositions on the tzzibur , just as there will chĒv be deaths from swimming pools, bein hazmanim road trips, summer activities, families driving to distant family weddings etc. as there are each year, yet no one suggests that the tzibbur curtail these activities. Iím not sure what the dividing line is.

I do think that weddings present a more significant risk of government intervention than is acceptable, and that is something we should act upon in any case.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 02, 2020, 09:56:31 AM
Yes we should focus on the bigger problem now. We have a choice. Weddings or schools and shuls. We may not be able to have both. Is the full blah wedding worth have shuls closed for Yom Kippur?

I agree that weddings need to be the #1 priority. I do think it will be a great challenge if the perception outside of weddings is one of business as usual.

Social convention is an amazing thing. ...when you have a culture that denies there is any threat to public safety and insists on living life like everything is normal, then you're right: there is no way people are going to change their simcha one iota.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 02, 2020, 10:02:22 AM
... just as there will chĒv be deaths from swimming pools, bein hazmanim road trips, summer activities, families driving to distant family weddings etc. as there are each year, yet no one suggests that the tzibbur curtail these activities. Iím not sure what the dividing line is.

All of the things which we do that present what we deem to be acceptable risks come with safety precautions. We go swimming with a lifeguard (or responsible adult in private). We drive within the parameters of federal and local safety regulations. We take trips to places which all have safety precautions built in, in addition to individuals setting up their own precautions.

What precautions are in place in Lakewood for living life with Covid in the community?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 02, 2020, 10:09:34 AM
I was raising what you could call hysteria and fear mongering on this forum early in March. The facts substantiated it. They do not currently call for anything more than concern IMO.

So when would they? *after* a significant amount of hospitalizations? How do you know that the 35 cases confirmed in the last 2 days arenít ďcommunity spreadĒ?

In fact one could make the case that  the risk of unwelcome government intervention in our shuls, schools, and yeshivos is of far more concern than the actual health hazard. Thatís not to say that no one will be hospitalized or chĒv worse. Even with a small number of infections there will eventually be some. It will be an inevitable part of reopening society. But perhaps that does not rise to the level that would mandate significant impositions on the tzzibur , just as there will chĒv be deaths from swimming pools, bein hazmanim road trips, summer activities, families driving to distant family weddings etc. as there are each year, yet no one suggests that the tzibbur curtail these activities. Iím not sure what the dividing line is.

I do think that weddings present a more significant risk of government intervention than is acceptable, and that is something we should act upon in any case.
I agree with much of what you wrote.

Not to detract from your point, which is objectively valid, but I think youíre equating things that are far from similar-

1) How many people in Lakewood can potentially die from not controlling this with objectively light measures *within a few weeks*? How manyís health will suffer long term? Also, you donít get to decide whether COVID kills you, only whether you lock yourself up at home or subject yourself to the mercy of everyone elseís precautions.
2) How many die in Lakewood each *year* from all of the things you listed? IINM itís in the range of 2 or less each year. Many (most?) years, 0. And all are a direct result of some individual human negligence. We donít really accept death all that much. Also, each of those are objectively preventable, and they are not at the mercy of othersí decision making.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 02, 2020, 10:14:45 AM
just assume u had/ have it and call it a day
I believe this is the prevalent mindset in Lakewood. Covid == regular mild viral illness; no need to get tested.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ttn on September 02, 2020, 10:19:18 AM
I believe this is the prevalent mindset in Lakewood. Covid == regular mild viral illness; no need to get tested.
I guess people forgot how many people died from this in Lakewood itself. Yes a lot of the precautions I agree are a little extreme but if someone has the symptoms the mindset to go on life as usual is just stupid.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 02, 2020, 10:37:48 AM
I guess people forgot how many people died from this in Lakewood itself. Yes a lot of the precautions I agree are a little extreme but if someone has the symptoms the mindset to go on life as usual is just stupid.
Along with the claim that no one died from covid; they were all killed by the doctors and hospitals.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 02, 2020, 10:41:51 AM
So when would they? *after* a significant amount of hospitalizations? How do you know that the 35 cases confirmed in the last 2 days arenít ďcommunity spreadĒ?
I agree with much of what you wrote.

Not to detract from your point, which is objectively valid, but I think youíre equating things that are far from similar-

1) How many people in Lakewood can potentially die from not controlling this with objectively light measures *within a few weeks*? How manyís health will suffer long term? Also, you donít get to decide whether COVID kills you, only whether you lock yourself up at home or subject yourself to the mercy of everyone elseís precautions.
2) How many die in Lakewood each *year* from all of the things you listed? IINM itís in the range of 2 or less each year. Many (most?) years, 0. And all are a direct result of some individual human negligence. We donít really accept death all that much. Also, each of those are objectively preventable, and they are not at the mercy of othersí decision making.
Thereís truth in that. Itís a question of degrees. If you take the Kewish community in the Tri state area as a whole itís a much larger number. If you would refuse to give a hechsher to places like Bagel Nosh and other unhealthy restaurants and didnít allow stores to carry unhealthy food choices youíd easily save dozens of lives in Lakewood each year, but thatís obviously not a mechayev. The question is a what point it becomes one.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 02, 2020, 10:45:24 AM
Thereís truth in that. Itís a question of degrees. If you take the Kewish community in the Tri state area as a whole itís a much larger number. If you would refuse to give a hechsher to places like Bagel Nosh and other unhealthy restaurants and didnít allow stores to carry unhealthy food choices youíd easily save dozens of lives in Lakewood each year, but thatís obviously not a mechayev. The question is a what point it becomes one.

You didn't just equate eating in restaurants with Covid....
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 02, 2020, 10:46:19 AM
You didn't just equate eating in restaurants with Covid....
Of course not. Just using the absurd to illustrate a point
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 02, 2020, 10:48:34 AM
It seems clear from your posts that all concern is hysteria and fear mongering. So please do be careful with your words. Donít want any sheeple to lose their minds worrying over the CoronaFlu or anything.
That can be found in both directions (ahem ahem)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Mikes@Micro on September 02, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
Thereís truth in that. Itís a question of degrees. If you take the Kewish community in the Tri state area as a whole itís a much larger number. If you would refuse to give a hechsher to places like Bagel Nosh and other unhealthy restaurants and didnít allow stores to carry unhealthy food choices youíd easily save dozens of lives in Lakewood each year, but thatís obviously not a mechayev. The question is a what point it becomes one.
Mayor bloomberg who?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 02, 2020, 10:55:59 AM
The reason why none of these other risks are comparable is because those are all individual choices that affect only that individual.

Covid prevention measures are clearly to protect the community. The only other possible comparison is to motor vehicle accidents that have other involved parties, and there's a whole litany of rules there.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 02, 2020, 11:03:46 AM
Thereís truth in that. Itís a question of degrees. If you take the Kewish community in the Tri state area as a whole itís a much larger number. If you would refuse to give a hechsher to places like Bagel Nosh and other unhealthy restaurants and didnít allow stores to carry unhealthy food choices youíd easily save dozens of lives in Lakewood each year, but thatís obviously not a mechayev. The question is a what point it becomes one.
If you take the numbers of all of the Jewish communities in the Tri-State area as a whole than all of the causes of death you listed are responsible for perhaps a maximum of 5-10 per year (all vividly publicized by YWN)..

And the COVID deaths possibly exceed 1,000(!)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 02, 2020, 11:07:17 AM
The reason why none of these other risks are comparable is because those are all individual choices that affect only that individual.

Covid prevention measures are clearly to protect the community. The only other possible comparison is to motor vehicle accidents that have other involved parties, and there's a whole litany of rules there.
1) you donít get to decide whether COVID kills you, only whether you lock yourself up at home or subject yourself to the mercy of everyone elseís precautions.
2) each of those are objectively preventable, and they are not at the mercy of othersí decision making.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 02, 2020, 11:07:27 AM
If you take the numbers of all of the Jewish communities in the Tri-State area as a whole than all of the causes of death you listed are responsible for perhaps a maximum of 5-10 per year (all vividly publicized by YWN)..

And the COVID deaths possibly exceed 1,000(!)
You really think that there are only 5-10 deaths a year from obesity related causes? Many COVID deaths themselves  had that as a contributing cause.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 02, 2020, 11:10:25 AM
You really think that there are only 5-10 deaths a year from obesity related causes? Many COVID deaths themselves  had that as a contributing cause.
I was referring to the causes of death mentioned in the original post- Bein Hazmanim road trips, swimming pools, traveling to long distance weddings.

Personal health issues is a whole Ďnother Pandoraís box. I believe we were discussing things that will result in immediate death. Itís completely possible that the long term effects of COVOD will have a worse effect than that of obesity..
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 02, 2020, 11:21:36 AM
I was referring to the causes of death mentioned in the original post- Bein Hazmanim road trips, swimming pools, traveling to long distance weddings.

Personal health issues is a whole Ďnother Pandoraís box. I believe we were discussing things that will result in immediate death. Itís completely possible that the long term effects of COVOD will have a worse effect than that of obesity..
But you not acting safely with covid protections endangers others. That's not in dispute. You don't just get to wave that away.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 02, 2020, 11:36:58 AM
But you not acting safely with covid protections endangers others. That's not in dispute. You don't just get to wave that away.
This is exactly why the whole world  hates each other. If you view everyone else as a problem.....
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 02, 2020, 11:40:09 AM
This is exactly why the whole world  hates each other. If you view everyone else as a problem.....

Yes, this is exactly why the whole world hates each other.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 02, 2020, 11:41:22 AM
But you not acting safely with covid protections endangers others. That's not in dispute. You don't just get to wave that away.
Correct, I was not disputing that.
This is exactly why the whole world  hates each other. If you view everyone else as a problem.....
This is very sad. We are talking about frum communities. Why canít we expect everyone, ourselves included, to be considerate of others? I donít think that is a cause for hate.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 02, 2020, 11:59:31 AM
This is exactly why the whole world  hates each other. If you view everyone else as a problem.....
Only those who don't care about spreading potentially deadly disease to others and those who loot and burn down other peoples property. If someone can't be considerate enough to avoid spreading a disease to me then I have a right to be upset at them.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 02, 2020, 12:03:22 PM
This is exactly why the whole world  hates each other. If you view everyone else as a problem.....

I made fun of this, but there is some truth here in the inverse. If everyone thought about the repercussions their actions would have on others, there would be so much less hate in the world. Hillel had this figured out centuries ago al regel aches.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 02, 2020, 12:05:45 PM
I made fun of this, but there is some truth here in the inverse. If everyone thought about the repercussions their actions would have on others, there would be so much less hate in the world. Hillel had this figured out centuries ago al regel aches.

FTFY
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 02, 2020, 12:08:13 PM
FTFY

Fixed. Started writing about V'ahavta l'reiacha kamocha and switched thoughts.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 02, 2020, 12:48:06 PM
Only those who don't care about spreading potentially deadly disease to others and those who loot and burn down other peoples property. If someone can't be considerate enough to avoid spreading a disease to me then I have a right to be upset at them.
Exactly my point. Nobody cares about anybody else, everyone is just nervous about themselves. You want someone to wear a mask not because he might infect other people, but because he might infect you. And that's exactly what covid did. It turned humanity on each other. Nobody really cares covid spreading or anything, they just want to make sure it doesn't affect them.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 02, 2020, 01:16:32 PM
Exactly my point. Nobody cares about anybody else, everyone is just nervous about themselves. You want someone to wear a mask not because he might infect other people, but because he might infect you. And that's exactly what covid did. It turned humanity on each other. Nobody really cares covid spreading or anything, they just want to make sure it doesn't affect them.

Not sure how in the world you saw that in what I wrote. Nobody burned or looted anything of mine. I am a part of "anybody else". When people are selfish and inconsiderate of society that should expect people to turn on them.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 02, 2020, 01:28:47 PM


Not sure how in the world you saw that in what I wrote. Nobody burned or looted anything of mine. I am a part of "anybody else". When people are selfish and inconsiderate of society that should expect people to turn on them.

Didn't mean you as you personally, you meant an individual. People don't care about a greater good or society, only about themselves. People are scared of the high number of covid cases because impact their lives. They aren't concerned about others lives.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 02, 2020, 01:47:49 PM
Exactly my point. Nobody cares about anybody else, everyone is just nervous about themselves. You want someone to wear a mask not because he might infect other people, but because he might infect you. And that's exactly what covid did. It turned humanity on each other. Nobody really cares covid spreading or anything, they just want to make sure it doesn't affect them.

Didn't mean you as you personally, you meant an individual. People don't care about a greater good or society, only about themselves. People are scared of the high number of covid cases because impact their lives. They aren't concerned about others lives.

This has been enlightening. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you think this way. Tell me, am I afraid that people in Lakewood or NY will get me sick? What's my angle? Am I fear-mongering to cause chaos for my benefit? After all, this must somehow be about me.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yfr bachur on September 02, 2020, 01:59:49 PM
I want other people to wear a mask for the same reason I wear a mask: To be considerate of other people, and not get them sick.

I hate wearing the mask, it can be uncomfortable, it's hard to breathe especially when it's hot....but I wear it anyway, so if chas veshalom I'm carrying it, I won't spread it.

and yes, I expect other people to also be considerate human beings.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yfr bachur on September 02, 2020, 02:20:43 PM
People don't care about a greater good or society, only about themselves. People are scared of the high number of covid cases because impact their lives. They aren't concerned about others lives.

Ipcha Mistabra. People dont care about the high number of covid cases because the preventative measures impact their lives. They aren't concerned about others lives.

If one side says do something for the good of society, and the other side says "don't have to, don't want to, can't make me"... who doesn't care about others??
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 02, 2020, 03:07:09 PM
A rebbe in a Lakewood mesivta tested positive today
26 new cases via OCHD
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 02, 2020, 03:13:57 PM
A rebbe in a Lakewood mesivta tested positive today
26 new cases via OCHD

61 on the week, in case anyone is counting.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 02, 2020, 06:47:40 PM
I want other people to wear a mask for the same reason I wear a mask: To be considerate of other people, and not get them sick.

I hate wearing the mask, it can be uncomfortable, it's hard to breathe especially when it's hot....but I wear it anyway, so if chas veshalom I'm carrying it, I won't spread it.

and yes, I expect other people to also be considerate human beings.
I hate going through TSA. But I accept that it's needed for safety. It is what it is.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 02, 2020, 07:11:47 PM
I think you are starting to see some movement. Some schools are staggering or canceling orientations. Asifas have been postponed. I think the cheder and Bais faiga are at least trying to implement segregating classes etc. so  there is at least some awareness of the need to exercise some reasonable caution.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 02, 2020, 08:05:06 PM
I think you are starting to see some movement. Some schools are staggering or canceling orientations. Asifas have been postponed. I think the cheder and Bais faiga are at least trying to implement segregating classes etc. so  there is at least some awareness of the need to exercise some reasonable caution.
The Cheder is having Lunch and Mincha in the classrooms, that means the 6th and most 7th graders aren't davening with a minyan.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: grodnoking on September 02, 2020, 09:35:26 PM
The Cheder is having Lunch and Mincha in the classrooms, that means the 6th and most 7th graders aren't davening with a minyan.
Why cant they put 10 bar mitzvah age kids 6 feet apart in the hallway and open the classroom doors?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 02, 2020, 09:39:59 PM
Why cant they put 10 bar mitzvah age kids 6 feet apart in the hallway and open the classroom doors?
I don't think anyone over bar mitzva is davening without a minyan, but the 11 and 12 y/o who don't have a minyan in their class are davening without a minyan.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Jerseysteve on September 02, 2020, 09:43:29 PM
Happy too see that a big Chasunah in Lakewood was done with the Chupah outside - definitely some movement.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 02, 2020, 09:44:14 PM
Happy too see that a big Chasunah in Lakewood was done with the Chupah outside - definitely some movement.
Helps that thatís mehudar also ;)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 02, 2020, 09:47:42 PM
Happy too see that a big Chasunah in Lakewood was done with the Chupah outside - definitely some movement.

Lubavitchers reading your post are wondering if it's sarcasm  :)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: EliJelly on September 03, 2020, 12:59:28 AM
Lubavitchers reading your post are wondering if it's sarcasm  :)
Among the rest of all chassidim and all Talmidei Chasam Sofer. That a chupa should be held under the sky is brought down in Rema.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 03, 2020, 02:17:09 AM
Exactly my point. Nobody cares about anybody else, everyone is just nervous about themselves. You want someone to wear a mask not because he might infect other people, but because he might infect you. And that's exactly what covid did. It turned humanity on each other. Nobody really cares covid spreading or anything, they just want to make sure it doesn't affect them.

Maybe Iím unique but I donít think Iíve ever felt more concerned for others before COVID, and relatively speaking its as if I didnít care at all about anyone else.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yesitsme on September 03, 2020, 05:38:37 AM
https://www.foxnews.com/health/mutated-form-coronavirus-more-contagious-less-deadly-experts
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Lurker on September 03, 2020, 06:00:54 AM
Maybe Iím unique yuneeq but I donít think Iíve ever felt more concerned for others before COVID, and relatively speaking its as if I didnít care at all about anyone else.

FTFY
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 03, 2020, 08:06:54 AM
Just a reminder about how silently covid spreads, I know someone who became symptomatic 10 days after being exposed to her friend. The entire family has been quarantining for the past 2 weeks, and the mother just became symptomatic 2 days ago (9 days after being exposed to her daughter who was contained to her room.)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yfr bachur on September 03, 2020, 09:29:19 AM
Exactly my point. Nobody cares about anybody else, everyone is just nervous about themselves. You want someone to wear a mask not because he might infect other people, but because he might infect you. And that's exactly what covid did. It turned humanity on each other. Nobody really cares covid spreading or anything, they just want to make sure it doesn't affect them.


Didn't mean you as you personally, you meant an individual. People don't care about a greater good or society, only about themselves. People are scared of the high number of covid cases because impact their lives. They aren't concerned about others lives.

Kol HaPosel BeMumo Posel.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yzj on September 03, 2020, 10:15:03 AM
Hereís a question for all of those out there saying that there is community spread. Letís say for example you have an area that has herd immunity. Multiple weddings each week expose those who are still susceptible (remember, herd immunity doesnít mean everyone is immune) to outsiders, resulting in lets say, 60 new cases. Letís say herd immunity means the R factor is now .8.

Those 50 cases will infect 40 new people on average in the community who will go on to infect 32 who will go on to infect approximately 26 etc. until that line of transmission dies out when it hits 5.

That means after a few such weeks the numbers will increase (remember it takes time for each generation to affect the next) we will see a couple hundred ďcommunity acquiredĒ cases each week. If the wedding numbers go up, we will have a proportionately larger number of cases. Is that evidence of community spread and a massive coming wave, or of herd immunity? Hint- read up on herd immunity.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 03, 2020, 10:32:09 AM
Hereís a question for all of those out there saying that there is community spread. Letís say for example you have an area that has herd immunity. Multiple weddings each week expose those who are still susceptible (remember, herd immunity doesnít mean everyone is immune) to outsiders, resulting in lets say, 60 new cases. Letís say herd immunity means the R factor is now .8.

Those 50 cases will infect 40 new people on average in the community who will go on to infect 32 who will go on to infect approximately 26 etc. until that line of transmission dies out when it hits 5.

That means after a few such weeks the numbers will increase (remember it takes time for each generation to affect the next) we will see a couple hundred ďcommunity acquiredĒ cases each week. If the wedding numbers go up, we will have a proportionately larger number of cases. Is that evidence of community spread and a massive coming wave, or of herd immunity? Hint- read up on herd immunity.
But how would we know now if this is what will happen?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yzj on September 03, 2020, 10:43:01 AM
But how would we know now if this is what will happen?
Thatís the definition of herd immunity. Thatís why tracing the source is so important. Even if itís a few hundred cases chĒv it makes a major difference. If itís herd immunity you put all your resources into eliminating the source (outside weddings and events) and within a few transmission cycles you eliminate the problem. If itís true community spread you have to work on SD, masks, etc. if you want to bring the R number below 1 and eliminate the spread. (Or you can let it run itís course and hope to get the number below one without too much mortality -achieve true herd immunity-, a somewhat risky proposition if we truly did not reach that point the first time around.)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 03, 2020, 10:46:51 AM
Thatís the definition of herd immunity. Thatís why tracing the source is so important. Even if itís a few hundred cases chĒv it makes a major difference. If itís herd immunity you put all your resources into eliminating the source (outside weddings and events) and within a few transmission cycles you eliminate the problem. If itís true community spread you have to work on SD, masks, etc. if you want to bring the R number below 1 and eliminate the spread. (Or you can let it run itís course and hope to get the number below one without too much mortality -achieve true herd immunity-, a somewhat risky proposition if we truly did not reach that point the first time around.)
Iget that, but the scenario you describe is in the future. How do we know whether that is the scenario that will happen or if it will be regular community spread until we reach true herd immunity?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: chevron on September 03, 2020, 11:42:50 AM
How do we know herd immunity exists ? Outside of vaccinations, if reinfection is a possibility, you're just making wild assumptions.

Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 03, 2020, 11:52:20 AM
How do we know herd immunity exists ? Outside of vaccinations, if reinfection is a possibility, you're just making wild assumptions.
IINM immunity from vaccination is always more likely to wane than immunity from the virus itself.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yzj on September 03, 2020, 12:30:21 PM
How do we know herd immunity exists ? Outside of vaccinations, if reinfection is a possibility, you're just making wild assumptions.
No one is claiming that mass reinfection has been seen; at best only a small minority have experienced reinfection. That would not preclude herd immunity. You would need a level of reinfection high enough to increase the r factor above one and that does not appear to be likely.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 03, 2020, 03:02:35 PM
16 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 03, 2020, 03:11:55 PM
Perks of living in a science believing (aka MO) community. 


https://vimeo.com/454011727/ff5ed48905
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 03, 2020, 03:25:40 PM
Perks of living in a science believing (aka MO) community. 


https://vimeo.com/454011727/ff5ed48905
I don't think everyone thinks it's a perk....
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Moshe123 on September 03, 2020, 03:27:22 PM
Perks of living in a science believing (aka MO) community. 


https://vimeo.com/454011727/ff5ed48905

Being able to pick and choose mitzvos is also a perk of the MO community?
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 03, 2020, 03:28:54 PM
I don't think everyone thinks it's a perk....
If it keeps the schools open longer then it's a perk...otherwise it's a nuisance. At least they're trying something.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 03, 2020, 03:30:52 PM
Being able to pick and choose mitzvos is also a perk of the MO community?
What does that have to do with this video?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: SayWhat on September 03, 2020, 04:14:10 PM
Being able to pick and choose mitzvos is also a perk of the MO community?
What a shameful thing to say about a community. Fix up your own deeds before you worry about others.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 03, 2020, 04:26:41 PM
What does that have to do with this video?
Maybe by putting them down he feels better about how he is ignoring a disease?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: moko on September 03, 2020, 04:46:04 PM
Perks of living in a science believing (aka MO) community. 


https://vimeo.com/454011727/ff5ed48905
I get the same perks living in what some would call an "ultra orthodox" or "harreidi" or "black hat" community.
Just without the PR stunt
Oh, and cheaper tuition...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 03, 2020, 04:48:51 PM
I get the same perks living in what some would call an "ultra orthodox" or "harreidi" or "black hat" community.
Just without the PR stunt
Oh, and cheaper tuition...
What passes for those titles out of town. LOL. :P
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ttn on September 03, 2020, 07:26:30 PM
I tested positive today and will quarintine. To say it is a inconvenience for my family would be an understatement but it's about remembering what happened onlyfew months ago in Lakewood. If you are feeling symptoms even if you think you might have had it before ( like I thought) please get tested and stay home.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: flyingace on September 03, 2020, 08:00:48 PM
I tested positive today and will quarintine. To say it is a inconvenience for my family would be an understatement but it's about remembering what happened onlyfew months ago in Lakewood. If you are feeling symptoms even if you think you might have had it before ( like I thought) please get tested and stay home.
May I ask what your symptoms were that prompted you to get tested?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ttn on September 03, 2020, 08:06:50 PM
May I ask what your symptoms were that prompted you to get tested?
I had severe flu symptoms had a fever/chills, stomach issues, and achiness. I also had shortness of breath for a minute. The symptoms lasted 48 hours and I was in bed straight.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 03, 2020, 08:07:44 PM
I tested positive today and will quarintine. To say it is a inconvenience for my family would be an understatement but it's about remembering what happened onlyfew months ago in Lakewood. If you are feeling symptoms even if you think you might have had it before ( like I thought) please get tested and stay home.
Refua sheleima. Do you know sure you caught it?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ttn on September 03, 2020, 08:09:49 PM
Refua sheleima. Do you know sure you caught it?
Thanks. I'm not sure I did go to a few stores Sunday in Lakewood (I only got symptoms Tuesday). I could have also got it at work as well.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Mikeoracle on September 03, 2020, 08:41:13 PM
I had severe flu symptoms had a fever/chills, stomach issues, and achiness. I also had shortness of breath for a minute. The symptoms lasted 48 hours and I was in bed straight.
after 48 hours they went away completely?
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 03, 2020, 09:12:52 PM
Just got a confirmation that there are many influential people (including doctors) telling people not to test so that government doesn't close us down again.


@Yard sale that may answer the low count in OCHD numbers.

Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ttn on September 03, 2020, 09:20:05 PM
after 48 hours they went away completely?
Yes was pretty abrupt. I did start a cough now though.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 03, 2020, 09:37:45 PM
Just got a confirmation that there are many influential people (including doctors) telling people not to test so that government doesn't close us down again.


@Yard sale that may answer the low count in OCHD numbers.
What is the doctors rationale? Less severe strain? Younger average age? Herd immunity?
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 03, 2020, 09:39:02 PM
What is the doctors rationale? Less severe strain? Younger average age? Herd immunity?
"There's no point. Isolate for 10 days either way."

Is the terminology I heard.

(As if people will listen to the second part.)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ttn on September 03, 2020, 09:39:51 PM
What is the doctors rationale? Less severe strain? Younger average age? Herd immunity?
If this was the less severe I'm happy I got it this time around. I am under 30 and it was the longest 48 hours I can remember.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: ttn on September 03, 2020, 09:42:13 PM
"There's no point. Isolate for 10 days either way."

Is the terminology I heard.
I would like to know someone who went in complete isolation now without getting tested.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Baruch on September 03, 2020, 09:49:53 PM
If this was the less severe I'm happy I got it this time around. I am under 30 and it was the longest 48 hours I can remember.
I don't want to scare you, but from my personal experience, and many others, this virus many times gets better for a day or 2, and then gets worse...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Baruch on September 03, 2020, 09:51:03 PM
I would like to know someone who went in complete isolation now without getting tested.
My Brother in law did last week. He didn't test because he has a high fever and lost his smell, doc said "what's the point?"
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yelped on September 03, 2020, 09:56:02 PM
My Brother in law did last week. He didn't test because he has a high fever and lost his smell, doc said "what's the point?"
The point is that people should hopefully be aware and start masking up. As it is, I'm hearing of people I know getting Covid-19 left and right now.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Baruch on September 03, 2020, 10:00:32 PM
The point is that people should hopefully be aware and start masking up. As it is, I'm hearing of people I know getting Covid-19 left and right now.
What city?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 03, 2020, 10:02:33 PM
Thanks. I'm not sure I did go to a few stores Sunday in Lakewood (I only got symptoms Tuesday). I could have also got it at work as well.
Aka community spread
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 03, 2020, 10:20:51 PM
There are plenty of purely selfish reasons why someone would want to test, as @ExGingi can vouch
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: yelped on September 03, 2020, 10:27:26 PM
What city?
Sorry. Lakewood. Coworkers (other side of the building), a cousin, a neighbor's mother, etc. All in the last week. Besides people who I know of.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 03, 2020, 11:02:26 PM
"There's no point. Isolate for 10 days either way."

Is the terminology I heard.

(As if people will listen to the second part.)
The point is to have solid numbers so you can communicate facts to the public. If there is concern of undue government interference they should at least keep a private tally of cases that have unambiguous symptoms.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 03, 2020, 11:24:03 PM
My uncle tested positive for COVID today. Fever, chills, muscle aches. He was not exposed to anyone that he knows of, and is in aveilus so hasnít been to any simchos.

A Rosh Yeshiva in NJ out of Lakewood (mostly Lakewood bachurim and Yungeleit) tested positive yesterday. He tested negative on a rapid on Sunday but the PCR results came in positive yesterday. This after being exposed to his daughter who was positive, and the rest of the family soon followed. All symptomatic. The worst part- he attended yeshiva and gave shiur until today after the negative rapid, while feeling sick. Officially they are keeping all bachurim in the yeshiva dorm until further notice and gave some warning to the Yungeleit.. who mostly shrugged it off.

2 doctors warned my chavrusa that there is a serious outbreak brewing.

Rabbi Forscheimer told an uncle of mine not to attend any simchos. This uncle is *not* particularly high risk but has not had the virus.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 03, 2020, 11:36:49 PM
"There's no point. Isolate for 10 days either way."

Is the terminology I heard.

(As if people will listen to the second part.)
I heard from a Rav and a doctor in the last 2 days that if one is exposed or symptomatic they must quarantine for 2 weeks no exceptions, but thereís no reason to test (as an early negative can let people believe they donít have it while it could still be incubating, and higher numbers will lead to a shutdown).

I heard but have not confirmed that 2 additional classes were sent home from a school that had previously sent home a class for 2 weeks due to a student testing positive.

BMG has put up signs in Hebrew warning people to stay home if they have symptoms.
What is the doctors rationale? Less severe strain? Younger average age? Herd immunity?
This is a very dangerous inference- you automatically assumed the doctors donít think itís as bad. More likely they want them to isolate anyway and not use a test as a heter.. not as a tzad lehakel.

Something should be pointed out- there is currently zero evidence of there being a weaker strain. I have yet to hear from a single reputable source even so much as a hint to this. Please do inform us if youíve heard this from someone reliable. There is as much reason to believe itís stronger as there is that itís weaker- that is, zero.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 03, 2020, 11:39:06 PM
Thanks. I'm not sure I did go to a few stores Sunday in Lakewood (I only got symptoms Tuesday). I could have also got it at work as well.
@Yard sale I believe this is what you call community spread?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 03, 2020, 11:40:44 PM
I heard from a Rav and a doctor in the last 2 days that if one is exposed or symptomatic they must quarantine for 2 weeks no exceptions, but thereís no reason to test (as an early negative can let people believe they donít have it while it could still be incubating, and higher numbers will lead to a shutdown).


The person I heard this from was using this opinion as a rationale to "hide" from the government. Something that we've learned over this pandemic is that people will only hear what they want to hear. 
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 03, 2020, 11:45:19 PM
IINM immunity from vaccination is always more likely to wane than immunity from the virus itself.
Not necessarily, and when so, thatís by design
https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/immune-system-and-health
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 03, 2020, 11:45:55 PM
@Yard sale I believe this is what you call community spread?
It would seem so. As someone pointed out earlier you can have community spread that successively diminishes in number with herd immunity but from the info we are seeing it has definitely reached a point I would not have expected to see in Lakewood so it is concerning.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 03, 2020, 11:49:35 PM
It would seem so. As someone pointed out earlier you can have community spread that successively diminishes in number with herd immunity but from the info we are seeing it has definitely reached a point I would not have expected to see in Lakewood so it is concerning.
Iím glad youíre saying that because if youíre representative of the majority view in Lakewood then I hope this means that people are now going to start being more careful and most importantly start protecting the high risk better.

In all seriousness, kudos for being willing to see past your priors.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 03, 2020, 11:53:18 PM
Iím glad youíre saying that because if youíre representative of the majority view in Lakewood then I hope this means that people are now going to start being more careful and most importantly start protecting the high risk better.

In all seriousness, kudos for being willing to see past your priors.
Iíll say it like I see it. If you asked me two months ago if I expected to see this the answer is no.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 03, 2020, 11:59:18 PM
Iíll say it like I see it. If you asked me two months ago if I expected to see this the answer is no.
Yes, but many would not (and likely will not) until/unless it blows up in their face
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 04, 2020, 09:55:56 AM
My sister in law had a coworker test positive. Two guys from BMG tested positive.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: moko on September 04, 2020, 10:01:15 AM
My Brother in law did last week. He didn't test because he has a high fever and lost his smell, doc said "what's the point?"
this was the protocol being pushed by the medical establishment for the first couple of months. Now, in MA, they keep bragging about how easy it is to get tested.... My wife went to get tested at two walk in centers. At 1pm and at 11am at another, "sorry, we're not testing anymore today".
Called to schedule an appointment with our PCP, the receptionist asked a bunch of questions and then said just quarantine for 2 weeks...
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 04, 2020, 10:10:47 AM
So far itís only been orientation but I have heard that Bais Yaakov is operating with very strict precautions- masks, distancing, and capsules. I doubt that means masks in the classroom, probably just between classes.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 04, 2020, 10:23:50 AM
this was the protocol being pushed by the medical establishment for the first couple of months. Now, in MA, they keep bragging about how easy it is to get tested.... My wife went to get tested at two walk in centers. At 1pm and at 11am at another, "sorry, we're not testing anymore today".
Called to schedule an appointment with our PCP, the receptionist asked a bunch of questions and then said just quarantine for 2 weeks...
Didn't the federal government reallocate the testing funds out of the Northeast states?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: cholent on September 04, 2020, 10:41:11 AM
So far itís only been orientation but I have heard that Bais Yaakov is operating with very strict precautions- masks, distancing, and capsules. I doubt that means masks in the classroom, probably just between classes.
No masks in classrooms
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 04, 2020, 10:51:30 AM
No masks in classrooms
Are there masks in between classes or was that an exaggeration? Do you know how theyíre working capsules?
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: cholent on September 04, 2020, 10:53:04 AM
Are there masks in between classes or that was an exaggeration? Do you know how theyíre working capsules?
Officially, but let's see what happens Monday. The capsules are classes, it seems (unconfirmed) that they will stay with the same class all day. They are still davening in one big room but separated by class. Lunch in the classrooms. If there is a positive case, all girls in the class who don't have antibodies will stay home for two weeks.
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 04, 2020, 10:55:51 AM
Officially, but let's see what happens Monday. The capsules are classes, it seems (unconfirmed) that they will stay with the same class all day. They are still davening in one big room but separated by class. Lunch in the classrooms. If there is a positive case, all girls in the class who don't have antibodies will stay home for two weeks.
All schools were required to submit their protocols to the Health Department. Based on what the elementary schools are doing, I doubt BY will follow their submitted protocols either.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: cholent on September 04, 2020, 10:56:24 AM
All schools needed to submit their protocols to the Health Department. Based on what the elementary schools are doing, I doubt BY will follow their submitted protocols either.
I don't know what they submitted, I know what they told the girls at orientation.
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 04, 2020, 10:57:36 AM
I don't know what they submitted, I know what they told the girls at orientation.
Yeah. Elementary schools similarly sent their protocols to the parents. I have my doubts.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: cholent on September 04, 2020, 10:58:19 AM
Yeah. Elementary schools similarly sent their protocols to the parents. I have my doubts.
Compared to what my kids were told at two elementary schools here, this is very impressive
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 04, 2020, 10:58:25 AM
All schools were required to submit their protocols to the Health Department. Based on what the elementary schools are doing, I doubt BY will follow their submitted protocols either.
According to @avromie7 the Cheder is doing similar
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 04, 2020, 11:10:01 AM
A relative of mine told me his coworkerís child has a cough and a bad cold, so out of an abundance of caution she is keeping him home from school... And bringing him to work
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 04, 2020, 01:24:27 PM
Hearing that there's a letter coming out from the poskim by Monday.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 04, 2020, 02:03:15 PM
How do we know herd immunity exists ? Outside of vaccinations, if reinfection is a possibility, you're just making wild assumptions.

How is "if reinfection is a possibility" not itself making wild assumptions???
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 04, 2020, 02:10:19 PM
How is "if reinfection is a possibility" not itself making wild assumptions???
Because reinfection is a possibility for the typical coronavirus.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Traveler718 on September 04, 2020, 02:14:22 PM
Hearing that there's a letter coming out from the poskim by Monday.

Any leads as to which subjects it will address - simchos, schools, minyanim, testing, quarantine, masks?
Title: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 04, 2020, 02:28:50 PM
Any leads as to which subjects it will address - simchos, schools, minyanim, testing, quarantine, masks?
I don't know all details but there's definite talk about them strongly encouraging parents to be vigilant if their kids aren't feeling well and not send to school.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 04, 2020, 02:35:41 PM
Because reinfection is a possibility for the typical coronavirus.

We also know that herd immunity is a possibility for the typical coronavirus. "A possibility" of reinfection is not a valid basis for mass reactionary measures, just as "a possibility" of herd immunity would not be a valid basis for recklessly exposing people to someone with active COVID. Reinfection is a possibility and nothing more.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 04, 2020, 02:40:15 PM
We also know that herd immunity is a possibility for the typical coronavirus.
Source? Not denying this, but I have not seen any hard facts on this.

"A possibility" of reinfection is not a valid basis for mass reactionary measures, just as "a possibility" of herd immunity would not be a valid basis for recklessly exposing people to someone with active COVID. Reinfection is a possibility and nothing more.
Maybe, but this seems to be a question based on something you KNOW to be a false premise. Doesn't look very good for intellectual honesty.
How is "if reinfection is a possibility" not itself making wild assumptions???
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 04, 2020, 02:50:26 PM
Maybe, but this seems to be a question based on something you KNOW to be a false premise. Doesn't look very good for intellectual honesty.

Reinfection as an active danger - which is how it is intended when used as a premise for current reactionary measures - is only a possibility. As a future concern, reinfection may be real.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 04, 2020, 02:54:34 PM
Reinfection as an active danger - which is how it is intended when used as a premise for current reactionary measures - is only a possibility. As a future concern, reinfection may be real.
yet not a "wild assumption" He clearly called it a possibility which you seem to even agree that it is a possibility. Forget about what people may or may not want to do because of such a possibility. Just the facts.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: YitzyS on September 04, 2020, 03:01:37 PM
I have two things to say about the matter, but I'm going to put them both in one post, because I'm watching my post-to-like ratio now and don't want to waste posts in non-JS threads. (hint...)

1) There was an article about Lakewood's yeshiva reopening on NJ.com today: https://www.nj.com/education/2020/09/for-all-40000-of-lakewoods-yeshiva-students-fall-means-in-person-full-time-classes.html

2) This is a sign I saw hanging outside of Dr. Lancz's office today:
(https://i.postimg.cc/TYkYDjJR/Whats-App-Image-2020-09-04-at-2-15-42-PM.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/nCDJ8DW5)
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Euclid on September 04, 2020, 05:00:39 PM
35 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Lakewood round 2
Post by: Chief Rabbi of New York on September 04, 2020, 06:10:14 PM
Whose ready ?
Why don't we learn and wear masks ? Is casualties worth the inconvenience?
Title: Re: Lakewood round 2
Post by: Euclid on September 04, 2020, 06:20:51 PM
Don't think we need 2 threads. Mods


https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=118498.0
Title: Re: Lakewood round 2
Post by: yitzgar on September 04, 2020, 06:36:54 PM
Don't think we need 2 threads. Mods


https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=118498.0
It's really 3
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: dealfinder11 on September 04, 2020, 06:46:51 PM
aaaaand we have a hospitalization.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: YitzyS on September 04, 2020, 06:56:21 PM
aaaaand we have a hospitalization.
35-year-old, no known conditions  :(
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: aygart on September 04, 2020, 07:00:08 PM
Catapult teacher positive.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 05, 2020, 10:01:05 PM
3 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 06, 2020, 03:31:59 PM
12 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yzj on September 06, 2020, 05:31:59 PM
12 new cases via OCHD.
Stabilizing or just weekend reporting? Havenít seen any behavioral changes whatsoever by shul or chasunah etc. but maybe symptomatic people are staying away?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cholent on September 06, 2020, 05:34:14 PM


Stabilizing or just weekend reporting? Havenít seen any behavioral changes whatsoever by shul or chasunah etc. but maybe symptomatic people are staying away?

Or less people are testing
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 06, 2020, 05:36:03 PM
Stabilizing or just weekend reporting? Havenít seen any behavioral changes whatsoever by shul or chasunah etc. but maybe symptomatic people are staying away?
I think it's a combination of that many, many people are just not testing, and doctors' offices not reporting to OCHD (conspiracy theory alert), so that govt shouldn't shut anything down.

Hatzolah has been getting multiple Covid calls a day for the past few days.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yzj on September 06, 2020, 05:51:00 PM
Supposedly the calls that they initially got were mostly nervous people. Are they starting to respond to  real respiratory distress calls etc?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Sam Finkelstein on September 06, 2020, 06:14:48 PM
Iíve heard that doctors arenít testing to avoid another shutdown.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 06, 2020, 06:28:46 PM
Iíve heard that doctors arenít testing to avoid another shutdown.
What's the long game here? Let it get out of control first and then a longer shutdown?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 06, 2020, 07:40:39 PM
What's the long game here? Let it get out of control first and then a longer shutdown?
Define get out of control?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 06, 2020, 07:54:13 PM
Define get out of control?
Without testing, you can't contact trace and people are just going to go around spreading it. I don't understand why this is so hard to understand.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 06, 2020, 08:04:21 PM
Without testing, you can't contact trace and people are just going to go around spreading it. I don't understand why this is so hard to understand.
That doesnít answer my question.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 06, 2020, 08:07:45 PM
Without testing, you can't contact trace and people are just going to go around spreading it. I don't understand why this is so hard to understand.
Second wave?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 06, 2020, 08:09:04 PM
What's the long game here? Let it get out of control first and then a longer shutdown?
Why do you think it would lead to a longer shutdown? Just like the first shutdown, if there is a second one it will be dragged out way longer than necessary regardless
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 06, 2020, 08:23:43 PM
What's the long game here? Let it get out of control first and then a longer shutdown?
Also, why should there be a shutdown?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: YitzyS on September 06, 2020, 08:24:04 PM
Also, why should there be a shutdown?
To save lives. Duh.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 06, 2020, 08:25:00 PM
To save lives. Duh.
Something something car accidents something something herd immunity.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Kobe Bryant on September 06, 2020, 08:27:53 PM
To save lives. Duh.
I'm predicting, that they will try save lives by shutting down the economy, in the beginning of Oct.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yzj on September 06, 2020, 09:14:19 PM
What's the long game here? Let it get out of control first and then a longer shutdown?
Thereís zero appetite for a shutdown. After what everyone has been through it isnít going to happen again. And Iím talking about the non Jews.

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 06, 2020, 09:18:45 PM
Something something car accidents something something herd immunity.
Okay why not answer a question, you propose that they should lock down once stuff get out of control. When should that lockdown end? When are things under control? How will it save lives in the long run?
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 06, 2020, 09:20:31 PM
Schools can be closed down without a "shutdown".

This binary thinking with regards to lockdowns and shutdowns is just causing everyone to yell past each other.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 06, 2020, 09:24:24 PM
Schools can be closed down without a "shutdown".

This binary thinking with regards to lockdowns and shutdowns is just causing everyone to yell past each other.
Closing schools means many parents can't work, that's about as close as it gets before it's a full blown shutdown.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 06, 2020, 09:26:32 PM
Closing schools means many parents can't work, that's about as close as it gets before it's a full blown shutdown.
100%. The way I see it is that schools can/will be closed on an individual basis, but nothing on a state/county level (which is what people seem to be referring to when they yell about a lockdown.)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 06, 2020, 10:41:03 PM
Schools can be closed down without a "shutdown".

This binary thinking with regards to lockdowns and shutdowns is just causing everyone to yell past each other.

Ma! There's nothing to eat! I'm starving!

Yankel, I made your favorite supper. No you can't have 5 bags of chips for supper.

But Ma! I want chips! You're starving me! Why aren't you giving me anything to eat!

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 06, 2020, 11:19:03 PM
The extreme shut downs don't work because once opened, everyone rushed back to normal life.

"We all got it" they said.

 Judaism is resilient, we survived it all and that's the general mentality, big deal!

Except the modern day needs for life are much different than in times past, they had secret weddings in Nazi germani and stalinist russia and they didn't NEED hundreds of people.

Putting everyone at risk is sickening.. but the goyim are doing it, meh

I'm not saying that every thing being done causes virus spread, or that everyone getting the virus will die etc

Wear a f&+#@g mask. Nebech on your being uncomfortable for 5 minutes

But it does play into "bishvili nivra ha'olam' mentality. Reminded of the video of the guy smoking a cigarette while mbd tells him to stop.. it's my lungs.. It's not my problem if you all die from second-hand smoking
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: KSMH on September 07, 2020, 12:17:50 AM

Or less people are testing
Iíve heard that doctors arenít testing to avoid another shutdown.
Some DR's are urging healthy ppl with suspected Covid-19 to stay home and isolate.

They are recommending not to test as local  health officials see results and try contact tracing which doesn't really work for obvious reasons, which causes headaches for everyone involved.

As with the first wave, responsible ppl shall avoid crowds and distance from ppl.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yzj on September 07, 2020, 10:11:33 AM
Still so unusual to see a guy in a mask in shul or yeshiva that the first thought that comes to mind (especially if he is young) is ďis he symptomatic or was he exposedĒ?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 07, 2020, 10:25:48 AM
Still so unusual to see a guy in a mask in shul or yeshiva that the first thought that comes to mind (especially if he is young) is ďis he symptomatic or was he exposed?"
FTFY

I assume they traveled recently.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 07, 2020, 10:27:30 AM
Hearing that the cheder will be required to close down if they have 1 more positive.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 07, 2020, 10:53:40 AM
Well then I assure you there will not be another positive case.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 07, 2020, 10:59:35 AM
Hearing that the cheder will be required to close down if they have 1 more positive.
Did you hear this from a reliable source? I've been hearing this from my brother in the cheder, I assumed it was just cheder kid hock.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 07, 2020, 11:01:04 AM
Did you hear this from a reliable source? I've been hearing this from my brother in the cheder, I assumed it was just cheder kid hock.
Heard it from a Cheder parent whose family is connected to the hanhala. I don't know how reliable it is either.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: flyingace on September 07, 2020, 11:05:21 AM
Well then I assure you there will not be another positive case.
Do not agree at all. They had several very sick Rebbeim and parents. They will do whatever they have to. It's not clear if and who is saying they will close down, either.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 07, 2020, 11:22:33 AM
Do not agree at all. They had several very sick Rebbeim and parents. They will do whatever they have to. It's not clear if and who is saying they will close down, either.
I heard this too. And I heard (a rumor) besheim Dr. Shanik that he gives 2 weeks from when schools opened till they close.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 07, 2020, 11:56:08 AM
I heard this too. And I heard (a rumor) besheim Dr. Shanik that he gives 2 weeks from when schools opened till they close.
Well schools are doing everything they can not too close. I know a yeshiva which said two positive cases total we will shut down and itís been 20 and they are still opened.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: flyingace on September 07, 2020, 12:06:14 PM
I heard this too. And I heard (a rumor) besheim Dr. Shanik that he gives 2 weeks from when schools opened till they close.
Makes sense, my DS said weeks ago that if people want shul for Yamim Noraim we shouldn't open school until after Yom Tov...
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 07, 2020, 12:11:49 PM
At this point it's obvious that there will need to be at least a few deaths before anything changes.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 07, 2020, 12:29:05 PM
At this point it's obvious that there will need to be at least a few deaths before anything changes.
Ding ding ding, we have a winner.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: gozalim on September 07, 2020, 01:02:59 PM
Ding ding ding, we have a winner.
doesn't make your case look good
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 07, 2020, 01:43:13 PM
doesn't make your case look good
Case?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: gozalim on September 07, 2020, 02:36:11 PM
Case?
you have been arguing till blue in the face that anyone pro mask is a sadist, paranoid, and wishing for a 2nd wave.

when after all they were just hoping to prevent
At this point it's obvious that there will need to be at least a few deaths before anything changes.

Ding ding ding, we have a winner.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 07, 2020, 03:30:19 PM


you have been arguing till blue in the face that anyone pro mask is a sadist, paranoid, and wishing for a 2nd wave.

when after all they were just hoping to prevent

Please, do enlighten me where I said any of that.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: gozalim on September 07, 2020, 03:58:13 PM
so you think it would be prudent to encourage public mask-wearing in enclosed areas, discourage large indoor weddings with OOT guests, and similar common-sense precautions before we hit a 2nd wave that will never come?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 07, 2020, 04:12:08 PM
so you think it would be prudent to encourage public mask-wearing in enclosed areas, discourage large indoor weddings with OOT guests, and similar common-sense precautions before we hit a 2nd wave that will never come?
You can encourage all you'd like, practically speaking it will not be done.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: gozalim on September 07, 2020, 04:55:09 PM

Please, do enlighten me where I said any of that.
I must have confused you for someone
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?action=profile;u=33389;area=showposts

though if you insist here's 1
Thr part that you've been sitting here for months waiting, hoping, and yearning for a breakout. Now that cases are popping up your jumping for joy with all your grand plans of how your really smarter and can fix things. Let everyone live nobody cares what anybody on ddf posts. Shuls will be open regular, so will schools and weddings. Whether any of these things change will have less than 0% of anything to do with your posting fear mongering messages. If you really want to make a difference open a tehillim and say a few perakim that everyone should be healthy.... its elul.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 07, 2020, 05:06:42 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 07, 2020, 05:09:08 PM
I must have confused you for someone
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?action=profile;u=33389;area=showposts

though if you insist here's 1
And was any of it wrong? And people saying oh shut everything down because we will have another shut down is fear mongering. I was never referring to rational responses, only irrational was I talking about.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yzj on September 07, 2020, 05:31:11 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Invalid Tweet ID

It happens to be that if you were to show someone who was isolated on a desert island just a snapshot of the last few weeks; the numbers of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, and especially the demographics of those who died, and the measures being taken, he would look at you like the whole world has gone crazy.....
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 07, 2020, 05:35:24 PM
A friend of mine in the nursing home industry told me they are losing residents in droves. Not from Corona. These elderly patients have simply lost the will to live due to their isolation. No entertainment. No socializing. No visits from family. No religious services. They simply have nothing to get up for in the morning.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 07, 2020, 06:37:42 PM
A friend of mine in the nursing home industry told me they are losing residents in droves. Not from Corona. These elderly patients have simply lost the will to live due to their isolation. No entertainment. No socializing. No visits from family. No religious services. They simply have nothing to get up for in the morning.
Spoke to multiple people in the industry (many homes) and they confirm this. Albeit not at the "in droves" scale. "True but exaggerated."
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 07, 2020, 06:55:47 PM
A friend of mine in the nursing home industry told me they are losing residents in droves. Not from Corona. These elderly patients have simply lost the will to live due to their isolation. No entertainment. No socializing. No visits from family. No religious services. They simply have nothing to get up for in the morning.
Spoke to multiple people in the industry (many homes) and they confirm this. Albeit not at the "in droves" scale. "True but exaggerated."
It's not only about deaths now, I'm sure there are many more who deteriorated much faster because of the isolation.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 07, 2020, 06:56:14 PM
Spoke to multiple people in the industry (many homes) and they confirm this. Albeit not at the "in droves" scale. "True but exaggerated."
Perhaps his are more impacted. I donít remember his exact wording but he described it as a very significant number.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 07, 2020, 07:34:00 PM
Maybe the swedish model really was better...
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 07, 2020, 07:37:43 PM
Maybe the swedish model really was better...
Aren't the elderly required to isolate in that model?

LTC have a catch-22, either their patients die of covid (or complications due to covid) or die because of the isolation. Really no win.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 07, 2020, 07:53:40 PM
Aren't the elderly required to isolate in that model?

LTC have a catch-22, either their patients die of covid (or complications due to covid) or die because of the isolation. Really no win.
You keep them isolated for a month or 2 while covid runs rampant amongst the general population until you reach herd immunity.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 07, 2020, 07:54:31 PM
A close friend of mine has symptoms, Dr. Shanik and Dr. Schoner both told him it sounds like COVID and he should test. Waiting for results.

A friendís brother tested positive today, he is quite sick though not in the hospital.

A floor at Apex is working form home for the next couple of weeks after someone there tested positive.


ETA I should add: Neither of the two friends have attended any simchos recently, and have no idea where they would have picked it up.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 07, 2020, 07:55:24 PM
Maybe the swedish model really was better...
You say this like itís a new opinion of yours. Didnít you believe this all along?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 07, 2020, 07:58:52 PM
You say this like itís a new opinion of yours. Didnít you believe this all along?
Why would that be relevant?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 07, 2020, 08:01:27 PM
Why would that be relevant?
Just pointing out that you always believed that
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 07, 2020, 08:03:47 PM
Just pointing out that you always believed that
That's not what I said and it's not true. Now again, why would this be relevant? Or are you just pushing back at anything that goes against your bias?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 07, 2020, 08:14:58 PM
Aren't the elderly required to isolate in that model?

LTC have a catch-22, either their patients die of covid (or complications due to covid) or die because of the isolation. Really no win.
There is talk of reuniting the elderly with their families for the holidays there but Iíll believe it when I see it.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 07, 2020, 08:16:48 PM
That's not what I said and it's not true. Now again, why would this be relevant? Or are you just pushing back at anything that goes against your bias?
You have gone on the record in the past as believing the Swedish model was a better way. Now you are repeating that. Thatís ok, but Iím just clarifying this is not a new position based on the information that was just posted.

What is my bias? That the Swedish model was *not* better? Are you less biased than me in believing that it is?

Maybe the swedish model really was better...
I thought this post suggested you were considering this information and formulating a new opinion.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 07, 2020, 08:27:18 PM
There is talk of reuniting the elderly with their families for the holidays there but Iíll believe it when I see it.
Generally speaking, there's a reason they're in a nursing home.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 07, 2020, 08:28:51 PM
Just pointing out that you always believed that
You have gone on the record in the past as believing the Swedish model was a better way. Now you are repeating that. Thatís ok, but Iím just clarifying this is not a new position based on the information that was just posted.

What is my bias? That the Swedish model was *not* better? Are you less biased than me in believing that it is?
I thought this post suggested you were considering this information and formulating a new opinion.
There's a huge difference between the 2 things you said.
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 07, 2020, 09:46:31 PM
16 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: SayWhat on September 07, 2020, 09:50:08 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/headlines-breaking-stories/1898809/a-gap-between-public-medical-staff-perception-of-covid-19-senior-medical-official-says.html

"According to Galanta, the public believes that the coronavirus is only dangerous to the elderly or those with pre-existing conditions but arenít aware that ďpre-existing conditionsĒ could be as simple as a beer belly."

ďThere is apparently a lack of understanding of this disease,Ē she stressed. ďThere are young people aged in their 30s and 40s in serious condition, critical. They are on ventilators. Itís no longer 80-year-olds with four underlying health conditions and terminal cancer. Itís young people. People donít understand this and they are inviting 1,000 people to weddings.Ē
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 07, 2020, 10:33:16 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/headlines-breaking-stories/1898809/a-gap-between-public-medical-staff-perception-of-covid-19-senior-medical-official-says.html

"According to Galanta, the public believes that the coronavirus is only dangerous to the elderly or those with pre-existing conditions but arenít aware that ďpre-existing conditionsĒ could be as simple as a beer belly."

ďThere is apparently a lack of understanding of this disease,Ē she stressed. ďThere are young people aged in their 30s and 40s in serious condition, critical. They are on ventilators. Itís no longer 80-year-olds with four underlying health conditions and terminal cancer. Itís young people. People donít understand this and they are inviting 1,000 people to weddings.Ē

People understand more than the doctors give them credit for. There certainly is what to be said for caring for more than just ones own well-being, but on a personal level most younger people are correctly judging their personal risk to be minuscule.

The thousands of college students who are partying are correcting calculating that their risk of dropping dead from binge drinking and drugging up at the sorority party is far greater than dropping dead from covid. Out of over 2000 U of Alabama students who contracted covid there were zero hospitalizations.

Even those in their 30s and 40s on vents represent a tiny fraction of those seriously ill. It is far more reasonable to tell a 30 year old to be careful because he ought to worry about the 80 year olds who are high risk than to warn him that he may end up on a vent.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 07, 2020, 10:42:59 PM
People understand more than the doctors give them credit for. There certainly is what to be said for caring for more than just ones own well-being, but on a personal level most younger people are correctly judging their personal risk to be minuscule.

The thousands of college students who are partying are correcting calculating that their risk of dropping dead from binge drinking and drugging up at the sorority party is far greater than dropping dead from covid. Out of over 2000 U of Alabama students who contracted covid there were zero hospitalizations.

Even those in their 30s and 40s on vents represent a tiny fraction of those seriously ill. It is far more reasonable to tell a 30 year old to be careful because he ought to worry about the 80 year olds who are high risk than to warn him that he may end up on a vent.
I think the point OP is making is that people tend to forget that what they have would be labeled a pre-existing condition. While most college students are well below 30, itís no surprise to anyone following that there are many many people in their 30s and 40s being hospitalized.

Obesity and diabetes are massive co-morbidities, and are massively prevalent in the 30-50 demographic in the frum yeshivish communities.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 07, 2020, 10:43:45 PM
My next door neighbor has corona, and the guy 4 doors down, and the lady around the corner. It's back.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: CRACKERJACK on September 07, 2020, 10:46:35 PM
My next door neighbor has corona, and the guy 4 doors down, and the lady around the corner. It's back.
and my ex chavrusah his wife and her family .. Its here.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Kobe Bryant on September 07, 2020, 10:48:18 PM
and my ex chavrusah his wife and her family .. Its here.
It never went anywhere.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 07, 2020, 10:50:07 PM
It never went anywhere.
It was almost non existent since Shavuos.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: CRACKERJACK on September 07, 2020, 10:50:25 PM
It never went anywhere.
and my ex chavrusah his wife and her family .. Its here.

My point exactly!
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 07, 2020, 11:00:09 PM
It never went anywhere.
There were zero to very few cases in the frum communities in the tri-state area for quite a while. That is no longer the case. There are at a minimum hundreds of cases circulating in Lakewood.

I remember you posting a while back that most people would agree that wearing a mask is a small price to pay to reopen our economy. Do you still maintain that position? I believe this was before mask wearing was politicized.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: SayWhat on September 07, 2020, 11:50:30 PM
There were zero to very few cases in the frum communities in the tri-state area for quite a while. That is no longer the case. There are at a minimum hundreds of cases circulating in Lakewood.

I remember you posting a while back that most people would agree that wearing a mask is a small price to pay to reopen our economy. Do you still maintain that position? I believe this was before mask wearing was politicized.
He is 100% right. I think the one thing we can all agree on is that we don't want another shutdown. But if this blows up to where it was March/April time there will be another shutdown. So we can either take the basic precautions now like mask wearing, social distancing & avoiding large indoor gatherings or the govt will enact another shutdown. Which one is it going to be?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 07, 2020, 11:54:24 PM
He is 100% right. I think the one thing we can all agree on is that we don't want another shutdown. But if this blows up to where it was March/April time there will be another shutdown. So we can either take the basic precautions now like mask wearing, social distancing & avoiding large indoor gatherings or the govt will enact another shutdown. Which one is it going to be?
It sure isnít going to e the masks.Was by another wedding tonight. Jam packed. One mask wearer.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 07, 2020, 11:56:40 PM
He is 100% right. I think the one thing we can all agree on is that we don't want another shutdown. But if this blows up to where it was March/April time there will be another shutdown. So we can either take the basic precautions now like mask wearing, social distancing & avoiding large indoor gatherings or the govt will enact another shutdown. Which one is it going to be?
There's another path that it seems the community leaders would like us to take: the underground swedish strategy.

Let it rip through town while keeping it under the radar of authorities. Keep testing to a minimum, don't report positive tests, don't publish any public statements etc. 
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 08, 2020, 12:04:38 AM
There's another path that it seems the community leaders would like us to take: the underground swedish strategy.

Let it rip through town while keeping it under the radar of authorities. Keep testing to a minimum, don't report positive tests, don't publish any public statements etc.
That works if you are counting on zero hospitalizations and zero mortality. If you have multiple hospitalizations or chĒv fatalities it gets just a bit more difficult to keep it under the radar.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yitzgar on September 08, 2020, 01:27:23 AM
The question is if it's too late to avoid an outbreak like march
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 08, 2020, 01:31:41 AM
The question is if it's too late to avoid an outbreak like march
Question will be answered within the next few weeks. Proactive steps have not and will not be taken, and so time will tell. Let's hope the answer is a positive one.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 08, 2020, 02:05:50 AM
What's so shocking?

When I said people going back to life like normal I wanted to know what happened?

And then they said well we all got it! It's gone! Herd immunity!!

Wear a mask? Naw!!

I have no more energy, I would like life to go back to normal as much as possible, I understand both sides of the argument.

But there's no excuse for people to not be lazy, There's no excuse for anybody to make baseless arguments.

Speak sh** and I will hold it against you for life

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 08, 2020, 02:17:46 AM
The question is if it's too late to avoid an outbreak like march
Itís not March. Itís not going to be like March. Letís not get carried away.

Even if you tried to replicate the events in March, the R0 is going to be far lower- even under the most pessimistic assumptions over 30% of Lakewood has had covid. Treatment protocol for those who are in respiratory distress are vastly different. Etc.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 08, 2020, 02:33:12 AM
Itís not March. Itís not going to be like March. Letís not get carried away.

Yes education is much better as is prevention and so was knowledge of treatment.

But could you really say that you really trust people to act responsibly? I have seven different bridges to sell you.

Even in Miami even at the quietest times I only trusted people who I knew I could trust with my life and I knew who were responsible and if anybody in their family had symptoms or anybody that they were in contact with had symptoms they would tell me and they would stay away from me.

A close friend of mine  had Corona and I when I brought him food he was totally like yeah okay give it to me I'm wearing a mask?!?

Dude!! I said no.. I left the food on top of my car and I closed the doors and windows before he came.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 08, 2020, 02:35:33 AM
Itís not March. Itís not going to be like March. Letís not get carried away.

Even if you tried to replicate the events in March, the R0 is going to be far lower- even under the most pessimistic assumptions over 30% of Lakewood has had covid. Treatment protocol for those who are in respiratory distress are vastly different. Etc.

You edited your post but still I worry about the whole stigma when they want to keep it quiet and they want to keep the schools open so they are going to tell people who have it to not get tested and to just stay home and therefore they are not going to get treatment when they need it in time.

Doctors have told me that many of the patients that they lost when people who came too late for treatment
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 06:24:47 AM
You keep them isolated for a month or 2 while covid runs rampant amongst the general population until you reach herd immunity.
That's not what happened in Sweden.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 08, 2020, 06:53:37 AM
That's not what happened in Sweden.
Which part?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 07:01:41 AM
Which part?
That everyone got it in 2 months and old people were fine.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 07:02:42 AM
Is there word on how many people getting infected now testes positive for antibodies?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 08, 2020, 07:04:52 AM
That everyone got it in 2 months and old people were fine.
It didn't work perfectly, but that was the basic plan. It's still looking better with every passing day.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 07:06:06 AM
It didn't work perfectly, but that was the basic plan. It's still looking better with every passing day.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: drosenberg88429 on September 08, 2020, 07:18:18 AM
It didn't work perfectly, but that was the basic plan. It's still looking better with every passing day.

When did "normalcy" become the new religion? At this point there is light at the end of the tunnel. If we can hold out for 6 months, there will likely be vaccines available. Is 6 months of masks really too much to ask, so much so we're willing to sacrifice lives for it on the altar of normalcy? It's somewhat understandable that a bunch of hedonistic live for the moment university students (that are living in campus, and therefore posing minimal risk to greater public) are not too concerned about the welfare of society, but are we as a community really no better? It's quite oxymoronic to gather to pray and learn for the sake of HKBH, in a mannerism that is defiant of the very G-d they are gathered to supposedly worship. Evidently, normalcy is the new idol that replaced HKBH. This isn't even mesiras nefesh for Torah... It's mesiras nefesh for personal comfort.

מי ביקש זאת מידכם רמות חצרי

Are we the next generation to murder Zechariah because the message necessitates changes from patterns of living we're comfortable with?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: flyingace on September 08, 2020, 07:51:34 AM
It didn't work perfectly, but that was the basic plan. It's still looking better with every passing day.
Did sick people quarantine in the Swedish model?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 08, 2020, 08:06:06 AM
When did "normalcy" become the new religion? At this point there is light at the end of the tunnel. If we can hold out for 6 months, there will likely be vaccines available. Is 6 months of masks really too much to ask, so much so we're willing to sacrifice lives for it on the altar of normalcy? It's somewhat understandable that a bunch of hedonistic live for the moment university students (that are living in campus, and therefore posing minimal risk to greater public) are not too concerned about the welfare of society, but are we as a community really no better? It's quite oxymoronic to gather to pray and learn for the sake of HKBH, in a mannerism that is defiant of the very G-d they are gathered to supposedly worship. Evidently, normalcy is the new idol that replaced HKBH. This isn't even mesiras nefesh for Torah... It's mesiras nefesh for personal comfort.

מי ביקש זאת מידכם רמות חצרי

Are we the next generation to murder Zechariah because the message necessitates changes from patterns of living we're comfortable with?

No one comes here for a mussar schmooze. People are living this way with tacit approval from rabbonim and roshei yeshiva. Go to these indoor weddings and youíll see them acting like everyone else..
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 08, 2020, 08:29:08 AM
There's another path that it seems the community leaders would like us to take: the underground swedish strategy.

Let it rip through town while keeping it under the radar of authorities. Keep testing to a minimum, don't report positive tests, don't publish any public statements etc.
I'm sure nobody is going to figure that one out.

If there was aivah back in March when the vast majority kept to guidelines what will it be when such a plan gets out?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 08:31:35 AM
I'm sure nobody is going to figure that one out.

If there was aivah back in March when the vast majority kept to guidelines what will it be when such a plan gets out?
Nobody cares. It's clear that the first time around, people were just paying lip service in an effort to go back to 'normal' ASAP, consequences be dammed.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: moish on September 08, 2020, 08:37:23 AM
My SIL started getting symptoms Friday, confirmed positive yesterday
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 10:20:24 AM
I'm curious about this as it was widely speculated that Lakewood had herd immunity from Shavous on. So thst could lead to a few possible conclusions:

1. The virus burned out and it was temporary, likely because the measures taken around Pesach were enough to slow the spread back down.

2. A smaller percentage of the population was exposed vs. what was thought

3. People aren't afforded protection simply from antibodies if they weren't ever sick.

4. As predicted, antibodies wane around 6 months, which is about where we are I nthe cycle

5. The lack of social distancing got worse over the past few weeks, accelerated by the peak wedding season post Tisha B'Av, as well as returns from camps and other vacation spots.

That there were a few isolated super spreader events, and things are otherwise are under control doesn't seem to hold water. Depending on which of these 5 conclusions are correct would shape how things should be modified moving forward and especially during the Chagim.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: pbf on September 08, 2020, 10:26:44 AM
I'm curious about this as it was widely speculated that Lakewood had herd immunity from Shavous on. So thst could lead to a few possible conclusions:

1. The virus burned out and it was temporary, likely because the measures taken around Pesach were enough to slow the spread back down.

2. A smaller percentage of the population was exposed vs. what was thought

3. People aren't afforded protection simply from antibodies if they weren't ever sick.

4. As predicted, antibodies wane around 6 months, which is about where we are I nthe cycle

5. The lack of social distancing got worse over the past few weeks, accelerated by the peak wedding season post Tisha B'Av, as well as returns from camps and other vacation spots.

That there were a few isolated super spreader events, and things are otherwise are under control doesn't seem to hold water. Depending on which of these 5 conclusions are correct would shape how things should be modified moving forward and especially during the Chagim.

1. Probably. Or, most people got it.

2.  Disagree. In my house alone, we had at least 10 people that had the virus and never tested.

3.  I don't know know anyone that tested positive for antibodies and then got the virus

4.  See number 3

5. Correct


I know a handful of people that never got the virus in March and recently tested positive. They had symptoms, but nothing close to what we all had in March and only lasted a few days.
I don't understand the hysteria. It's clearly not the same.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 08, 2020, 10:27:49 AM
I'm not sure whats so complicated, people are not getting it twice and it's really sad that people here keep pushing for reinfection just like they were pushing for more infections. Lots of people stayed home for months, now they're out and about and getting it for the first time. Really not such a complicated phenomenon. Is the right thing to do push restrictions on the masses because of the ones who can it get it now? Maybe, but realistically most likely not going to happen.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: etech0 on September 08, 2020, 10:30:06 AM
So what are those who never had the virus supposed to do? Wait at home until there's a vaccine? There needs to be some kind of answer for them.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 08, 2020, 10:31:54 AM
So what are those who never had the virus supposed to do? Wait at home until there's a vaccine? There needs to be some kind of answer for them.
Wear a mask and don't go to packed weddings? That might be a start
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 08, 2020, 10:33:28 AM
Wear a mask and don't go to packed weddings? That might be a start
And not send their kids to school?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: etech0 on September 08, 2020, 10:41:17 AM
Wear a mask and don't go to packed weddings? That might be a start
The ones I know are doing that already, but it's not the answer to everything.
For example:
And not send their kids to school?
And don't go to work?

I'm not pushing any agenda here, I'm just asking an honest question.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 10:48:05 AM
I'm not sure whats so complicated, people are not getting it twice and it's really sad that people here keep pushing for reinfection just like they were pushing for more infections. Lots of people stayed home for months, now they're out and about and getting it for the first time. Really not such a complicated phenomenon. Is the right thing to do push restrictions on the masses because of the ones who can it get it now? Maybe, but realistically most likely not going to happen.
I'm asking about antibodies, not people getting it twice. Those might be, but aren't necessarily, the same thing.

It's also possible that people have antibodies and are able to spread it to others, but they themsevles feel fine. Basically a other flavor of asymptomatic transmission.

If the scientific community is still undecided on antibodies/herd immunity, not sure why the Lakewood frum community gets to be the arbitrator on this.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 08, 2020, 10:52:30 AM
So what are those who never had the virus supposed to do? Wait at home until there's a vaccine? There needs to be some kind of answer for them.
It depends what the goal is. If it is to be certain not to get it thenyou will need to send children to OOT schools or the like which are makpid on this. If it is to mitigate risks then
Wear a mask and don't go to packed weddings
And the like.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 08, 2020, 10:59:40 AM


It's also possible that people have antibodies and are able to spread it to others, but they themsevles feel fine. Basically a other flavor of asymptomatic transmission.

Umm, citation? Source? Anyone that says or suggests this?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 11:02:20 AM
Umm, citation? Source? Anyone that says or suggests this?
Quote
Regardless of whether you test positive or negative, the results do not confirm whether you are able to spread the virus that causes COVID-19. Until we know more, continue to take steps to protect yourself and others.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html#:~:text=We%20do%20not%20know%20yet,first%20test%20was%20accurate.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 08, 2020, 11:10:26 AM
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html#:~:text=We%20do%20not%20know%20yet,first%20test%20was%20accurate.
Thatís very different then the way you said it. Have you heard any doctor suggest that?
CDC guidelines are not a proof of anything since they are only based on scientific certainty.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 11:15:13 AM
Thatís very different then the way you said it. Have you heard any doctor suggest that?
CDC guidelines are not a proof of anything since they are only based on scientific certainty.
That's my point - scientists can't definitively say anything about antibodies. There's simply not enough data.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 08, 2020, 12:00:27 PM
That's my point - scientists can't definitively say anything about antibodies. There's simply not enough data.
In general you can not get a virus twice, so why do you choose to believe that with covid you can? If that's not an agenda idk what is.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 12:07:18 PM
In general you can not get a virus twice, so why do you choose to believe that with covid you can? If that's not an agenda idk what is.
Having antibodies does not mean someone had covid.

Also, that claim isn't even true. People get H1N1 flu viruses all the time. Same thing with the common cold. You have some amount of protection from some strains, for a finite period of time.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 08, 2020, 12:10:23 PM


Having antibodies does not mean someone had covid.


Um, that's exactly what it means.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 08, 2020, 12:13:29 PM
In general you can not get a virus twice, so why do you choose to believe that with covid you can? If that's not an agenda idk what is.

From what I understand this is not true for most coronaviruses for which immunity lasts about 6 months. Thankfully most cause nothing more that a cold.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2020, 12:15:35 PM
In general you can not get a virus twice, so why do you choose to believe that with covid you can? If that's not an agenda idk what is.

The common cold is a coronavirus. People get a cold 2-3 times a year.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 08, 2020, 12:24:17 PM
The common cold is a coronavirus. People get a cold 2-3 times a year.
they only account for 15% of colds IIRC
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 12:25:15 PM

Um, that's exactly what it means.
Antibodies test for presence of certain proteins. Considering none of us had baselines, it's possible they were from another Corona virus and not SARS-COV-2.

There's also a non zero chance that people got a false positive - could be in the neighborhood of 50% false positive rate depending which test was taken. I'm not going to explain conditional probability to explain how those numbers work, but feel free to look it up.

There are also questions about antibody levels, declines etc.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 08, 2020, 12:56:46 PM
Here is a quote from a local doctor. He will remain nameless unless and until I can confirm that he intended his email to be made public.

COVID-19 disease is spreading like wildfire in Lakewood in the last 1-2 weeks. There is no clear evidence that this virus is weaker, only that the numbers of people who are infected are fewer and the high risk individuals are protecting themselves much better than in the Spring, thus leading to rare hospitalizations and no deaths as yet, B'H.' This could all change very rapidly if the proper precautions are not taken.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 08, 2020, 01:49:58 PM
Antibodies test for presence of certain proteins. Considering none of us had baselines, it's possible they were from another Corona virus and not SARS-COV-2.

There's also a non zero chance that people got a false positive - could be in the neighborhood of 50% false positive rate depending which test was taken. I'm not going to explain conditional probability to explain how those numbers work, but feel free to look it up.

There are also questions about antibody levels, declines etc.
If you wonder why no one listens to you itís because you are relying on fringe medical possibilities and arenít willing to accept the facts on the ground.

There hasnít been a single such case or suggestion of such a case yet youíre so worried about it.

False positive rate could be up to 50 percent in a place with an extremely low infection rate, a lot of these communities have a pretty high infection rate.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 02:01:35 PM
If you wonder why no one listens to you itís because you are relying on fringe medical possibilities and arenít willing to accept the facts on the ground.

There hasnít been a single such case or suggestion of such a case yet youíre so worried about it.

False positive rate could be up to 50 percent in a place with an extremely low infection rate, a lot of these communities have a pretty high infection rate.
These aren't fringe medical opinions. This is the standard stuff you'll see on the cdc website, as well as Harvard, John's Hopkins etc.

Search anything reliable on antibodies anywhere, and you'll see that there's no scientific consensus on how powerful of long lasting antibodies are. Moreover, given that this virus has existed less than 1 year, it's far to early to know the effect of waning antibodies.

What we do know is that Lakewood, BP etc. have among the highest positive test rates in the tri-state area, in spite of the supposed herd immunity achieved back in April. That really only leaves 2 possible explanations -

1. Waning antibodies
2. Lower transmission rates than projected

It's really not that complicated.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 02:06:13 PM
Quote
I've heard that the immune system produces different types of antibodies when a person is infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus. How do they differ? Why is this important?
When a person gets a viral or bacterial infection, a healthy immune system makes antibodies against one or more components of the virus or bacterium.

The COVID-19 coronavirus contains ribonucleic acid (RNA) surrounded by a protective layer, which has spike proteins on the outer surface that can latch on to certain human cells. Once inside the cells, the viral RNA starts to replicate and also turns on the production of proteins, both of which allow the virus to infect more cells and spread throughout the body, especially to the lungs.

While the immune system could potentially respond to different parts of the virus, it's the spike proteins that get the most attention. Immune cells recognize the spike proteins as a foreign substance and begin producing antibodies in response.

There are two main categories of antibodies:

Binding antibodies. These antibodies can bind to either the spike protein or a different protein known as the nucleocapsid protein. Binding antibodies can be detected with blood tests starting about one week after the initial infection. If antibodies are found, it's extremely likely that the person has been infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus. The antibody level declines over time after an infection, sometimes to an undetectable level.

Binding antibodies help fight the infection, but they might not offer protection against getting reinfected in the future. It depends on whether they are also neutralizing antibodies....

It's also worth noting that someone who has been re-infected ó even someone with no symptoms ó has the potential to spread the virus to others. That means that everyone, even those who have recovered from coronavirus infection, should continue to wear masks and practice physical distancing.


https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-youve-been-exposed-to-the-coronavirus
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 08, 2020, 02:08:25 PM
These aren't fringe medical opinions. This is the standard stuff you'll see on the cdc website, as well as Harvard, John's Hopkins etc.

Search anything reliable on antibodies anywhere, and you'll see that there's no scientific consensus on how powerful of long lasting antibodies are. Moreover, given that this virus has existed less than 1 year, it's far to early to know the effect of waning antibodies.

What we do know is that Lakewood, BP etc. have among the highest positive test rates in the tri-state area, in spite of the supposed herd immunity achieved back in April. That really only leaves 2 possible explanations -

1. Waning antibodies
2. Lower transmission rates than projected

It's really not that complicated.
I didnít say fringe medical opinions. I said fringe medical possibilities.. as you suggested that someone with antibodies can still spread the virus.

Positivity rate isnít really helpful if most people in BP arenít getting tested and only the ones that are sick or exposed are.. which is likely the case. And what is your source for Lakewood? Some people posting that they heard from a doctor that wants to remain anonymous?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 02:08:52 PM
Quote
Assume you can catch ó and spread ó coronavirus

Since one of the most puzzling things about this new coronavirus is how differently it affects individuals, testing is the best way to determine whether or not you have COVID-19.
Whether or not your antibody test is positive or negative, you should remember that you might still be able to catch COVID-19 or unknowingly spread the disease to someone else if you carry the coronavirus, regardless of whether you have any symptoms.
That is why, regardless of your antibody status, mask wearing in public is essential to preventing spread of COVID-19, along with physical distancing and hand hygiene. If you are newly symptomatic, getting a viral test would be important to determine if new infection has occurred.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-testing-what-is-an-antibody-test%3famp=true
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 08, 2020, 02:11:38 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-testing-what-is-an-antibody-test%3famp=true
This is exactly my point. Look at the facts on the ground rather then general medical statements
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 02:12:12 PM
I didnít say fringe medical opinions. I said fringe medical possibilities.. as you suggested that someone with antibodies can still spread the virus.

Positivity rate isnít really helpful if most people in BP arenít getting tested and only the ones that are sick or exposed are.. which is likely the case. And what is your source for Lakewood? Some people posting that they heard from a doctor that wants to remain anonymous?
My point is the entire public health apparatus is saying the same thing - having antibodies isn't a free pass to not keep restrictions. The bre mimnmum should be keeping those restrictions thst don't prevent people from living "normally" - wear masks, distance during minyanim, and don't have big indoor weddings.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 08, 2020, 02:14:56 PM
My point is the entire public health apparatus is saying the same thing - having antibodies isn't a free pass to not keep restrictions. The bre mimnmum should be keeping those restrictions thst don't prevent people from living "normally" - wear masks, distance during minyanim, and don't have big indoor weddings.
And my point is that general health statements from our public health apparatus (same one that green lighted protests I may add) are very different then what lots of doctors are informing individual communities. And the doctors havenít been proven wrong yet youíre still screaming about it
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 08, 2020, 02:20:26 PM
This is exactly my point. Look at the facts on the ground rather then general medical statements
I am looking for facts on the ground from 8 months after infection. I couldn't find any. Can you let me to some?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 02:23:38 PM
This is exactly my point. Look at the facts on the ground rather then general medical statements
What do the facts on the ground lead you to think? Because I bet a month ago it would have led you to beleive there's herd immunity.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 08, 2020, 02:23:41 PM
The common cold is a coronavirus. People get a cold 2-3 times a year.
Some comon colds are rhinoviruses, IIRC, you don't get the same common cold more than once a year.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2020, 02:25:05 PM
This is exactly my point. Look at the facts on the ground rather then general medical statements

The problem with this approach is that you're always at least one step behind, and even that's assuming you have the ability to gather and analyze data in real time. To dismiss preventative measures because something hasn't happened yet is nonsensical. To say preventative measures aren't necessary in our current situation... that's just living in denial, and that hasn't worked for us so far.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2020, 02:29:19 PM
they only account for 15% of colds IIRC
Some comon colds are rhinoviruses, IIRC, you don't get the same common cold more than once a year.

You're right. Coronaviruses account for around 20% of colds, and immunity is believed to last for between 3-12 months. Most people are only exposed to coronaviruses once a year, as they are generally seasonal. There are also 3-4 different coronaviruses that cause colds. IINM, immunity doesn't last more then 24 months for any of them.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 08, 2020, 02:38:41 PM
People get H1N1 flu viruses all the time. Same thing with the common cold. You have some amount of protection from some strains, for a finite period of time.

H1N1 viruses come in different strains/mutations. Once you have gotten a specific strain of flu you can not get it again. The most likely theory of the lethal 1918 flu epidemic is that older people already had a related strain earlier in their lives and therefore when it returned in 1918 in its deadliest form the only the healthy younger generation got it. (refer to "Flu" by Gina Kolata)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 08, 2020, 02:41:10 PM
The problem with this approach is that you're always at least one step behind, and even that's assuming you have the ability to gather and analyze data in real time. To dismiss preventative measures because something hasn't happened yet is nonsensical. To say preventative measures aren't necessary in our current situation... that's just living in denial, and that hasn't worked for us so far.
But people wonít listen to you if you tell them that antibodies arenít protective at all and they could still be spreading the virus. Lots of respected doctors are differentiating between those with antibodies and without. Just because general public health agencies wonít make blanket statements about it doesnít mean that it isnít true.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2020, 02:51:45 PM
But people wonít listen to you if you tell them that antibodies arenít protective at all and they could still be spreading the virus. Lots of respected doctors are differentiating between those with antibodies and without. Just because general public health agencies wonít make blanket statements about it doesnít mean that it isnít true.

I could be wrong, and I'm not about to scour his posts, but I don't believe he made a blanket statement that antibodies aren't protective at all. I believe he said that they cannot be relied upon, because a) you may still be able to transmit the disease with antibodies, and b) we have no idea how long they confer immunity yet. To make blanket statements to the contrary, giving people the idea that they absolutely cannot get the virus twice, can prove to be a very deadly assumption.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 08, 2020, 02:56:41 PM

If the scientific community is still undecided on antibodies/herd immunity, not sure why the Lakewood frum community gets to be the arbitrator on this.
An Arbitrator is someone who abandons Arby's for Roy Rogers. Arbiter is the Lakewood frum community.

It is wishful thinking to assume any community has reached herd immunity for the Novel coronavirus. IMO it is stupid for anyone not to wear a mask based on an assumption that herd immunity has been achieved.

From Mayo clinic (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808):
Herd immunity can also be reached when a sufficient number of people in the population have recovered from a disease and have developed antibodies against future infection. For example, those who survived the 1918 flu (influenza) pandemic were later immune to infection with the H1N1 flu, a subtype of influenza A. During the 2009-10 flu season, H1N1 caused the respiratory infection in humans that was commonly referred to as swine flu.

However, there are some major problems with relying on community infection to create herd immunity to the virus that causes COVID-19. First, it isn't yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection.

Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus ó though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people ó is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected.

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population ó more than 200 million people ó would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 02:56:46 PM


I could be wrong, and I'm not about to scour his posts, but I don't believe he made a blanket statement that antibodies aren't protective at all. I believe he said that they cannot be relied upon, because a) you may still be able to transmit the disease with antibodies, and b) we have no idea how long they confer immunity yet. To make blanket statements to the contrary, giving people the idea that they absolutely cannot get the virus twice, can prove to be a very deadly assumption.

This is all I'm saying.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 08, 2020, 03:05:49 PM
6 new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 08, 2020, 03:09:27 PM
There are many people who argue seatbelts are uncomfortable.

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 08, 2020, 03:21:31 PM
There are many people who argue seatbelts are uncomfortable.
And there used to be even more.
LEADERSHIP is needed for covid protective measures to be the new seatbelts.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 06:04:59 PM
What's clear to me is there's just a lot of moving of the goal posts. First it was a few isolated cases, then it was a few weddings but it was all under control, then it was minimal community spread, now it's spreading, but higher risk people can stay at home.

By next week, will it be "but the ICUs still have room" and so on? In what way are we not headed on a collusion course when everyone gets together for Rosh Hashanah?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: bmgkollelguy on September 08, 2020, 07:04:24 PM
why dont you ask the local doctors privately and see what they say? I did they dont seem nervous
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 08, 2020, 07:05:35 PM
What's clear to me is there's just a lot of moving of the goal posts. First it was a few isolated cases, then it was a few weddings but it was all under control, then it was minimal community spread, now it's spreading, but higher risk people can stay at home.

By next week, will it be "but the ICUs still have room" and so on? In what way are we not headed on a collusion course when everyone gets together for Rosh Hashanah?

There are at a minimum hundreds of cases circulating in Lakewood.

If people believe there are hundreds and perhaps thousands of cases ongoing in Lakewood with virtually no hospitalizations and few Hatzolah calls perhaps that is what is leading them to have such a cavalier attitude.....

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2020, 07:08:12 PM
If people believe there are hundreds and perhaps thousands of cases ongoing in Lakewood with virtually no hospitalizations and few Hatzolah calls perhaps that is what is leading them to have such a cavalier attitude.....

145 confirmed cases in the last 8 days. Hundreds of cases there are. The fallacy is comparing these numbers to post-Purim, when they are more likely to be similar to the period right before Purim.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 07:26:51 PM
145 confirmed cases in the last 8 days. Hundreds of cases there are. The fallacy is comparing these numbers to post-Purim, when they are more likely to be similar to the period right before Purim.
It's a good thing there are no holidays similar to Purim in that everyone comes to shul to listen to something that could ch"v accelerate the spread.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 08, 2020, 07:38:54 PM
why dont you ask the local doctors privately and see what they say? I did they dont seem nervous
How many did you ask? I have spoken to more than one who didn't just seem nervous but told me that he is. Is this just your impression or were they specific?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 08, 2020, 07:45:07 PM
If people believe there are hundreds and perhaps thousands of cases ongoing in Lakewood with virtually no hospitalizations and few Hatzolah calls perhaps that is what is leading them to have such a cavalier attitude.....
Hatzolah has been getting multiple Covid calls a day.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 08, 2020, 07:46:10 PM
why dont you ask the local doctors privately and see what they say? I did they dont seem nervous
I know at least 4 doctors that are very concerned.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 07:46:38 PM
Hatzolah has been getting multiple Covid calls a day.
It's fine. People will say what they want to avoid wearing masks and distancing.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: bmgkollelguy on September 08, 2020, 07:49:39 PM
spoke to 2 as well as what would be called askanim who spoke to others as well as the rabbis
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 08, 2020, 07:52:46 PM
spoke to 2 as well as what would be called askanim who spoke to others as well as the rabbis
Oh we're well aware what the rabbis and askanim (and some doctors) are advocating. It's not a secret at this point - "let 'er rip and hope there aren't too many casualties."

I'm just mentioning that this is far from the consensus amongst Lakewood doctors.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 08:00:43 PM
Are there any plans to accommodate higher risk people at minyanim on rosh Hashanah, or are people on their own?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: simplicity on September 08, 2020, 08:04:03 PM
I tested positive today, but never had it before
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 08, 2020, 08:11:54 PM
Are there any plans to accommodate higher risk people at minyanim on rosh Hashanah, or are people on their own?
https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/09/minyanin-for-yomim-noraim-urgently.html
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 08, 2020, 08:17:35 PM
why dont you ask the local doctors privately and see what they say? I did they dont seem nervous

I dont believe that there is a single health professional in Lakewood who is not very concerned by the trajectory that we are on. Did they share with you the basis for their non concern?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 08, 2020, 08:35:10 PM
Letís put things in context. We are not that far from flu season. In an average flu season in NJ there can be over 30,000 hospitalizations (including thousands of young people) and well over a thousand deaths. Covid in March greatly exceeded these numbers and had a somewhat larger proportion of the mortalities amount younger people than the flu. Right now that does not appear to be the case. A few Hatzalah calls is not a pandemic. Even a modest increase in infections and hospitalizations would not be a reason the go into panic mode.

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: SayWhat on September 08, 2020, 08:41:55 PM
Letís put things in context. We are not that far from flu season. In an average flu season in NJ there can be over 30,000 hospitalizations (including thousands of young people) and well over a thousand deaths. Covid in March greatly exceeded these numbers and had a somewhat larger proportion of the mortalities amount younger people than the flu. Right now that does not appear to be the case. A few Hatzalah calls is not a pandemic. Even a modest increase in infections and hospitalizations would not be a reason the go into panic mode.
What you fail to understand is that if you wait till the numbers are out of control you are too late. Actions need to be taken before it gets out of control not after. Did we not learn anything from March/April?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2020, 08:54:56 PM
Letís put things in context. We are not that far from flu season. In an average flu season in NJ there can be over 30,000 hospitalizations (including thousands of young people) and well over a thousand deaths. Covid in March greatly exceeded these numbers and had a somewhat larger proportion of the mortalities amount younger people than the flu. Right now that does not appear to be the case. A few Hatzalah calls is not a pandemic. Even a modest increase in infections and hospitalizations would not be a reason the go into panic mode.

Do you have a source for the NJ flu numbers?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 08, 2020, 09:01:18 PM
Even a modest increase in infections and hospitalizations would not be a reason the go into panic mode.
Yet again someone equivalating relatively minor precautions to panic mode. Nuance, people, nuance.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 08, 2020, 09:17:23 PM
Do you have a source for the NJ flu numbers?

(https://i.postimg.cc/yNdyP6LK/78-E4-B638-CCB4-485-B-9834-0427-E541947-A.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

NJ currently has around 400 covid hospitalizations
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 09:20:18 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/yNdyP6LK/78-E4-B638-CCB4-485-B-9834-0427-E541947-A.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

NJ currently has around 400 covid hospitalizations
I hope you understand that impatient and ER visits are different things.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2020, 09:23:05 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/yNdyP6LK/78-E4-B638-CCB4-485-B-9834-0427-E541947-A.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

NJ currently has around 400 covid hospitalizations

Just to clarify, the 30k is ER visits, not people admitted. There are only 3000 annual hospitalizations for the flu per year in NJ. Is there a source for the 1000 deaths?

ETA: 400 current Covid hospitalizations represents 13% of all annual flu hospitalizations. And we're nowhere close to a peak. We're just at the very beginning of a second wave. I'd say that's pretty significant.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2020, 09:31:01 PM
I tested positive today, but never had it before

R"S! Hope this goes quickly for you.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 08, 2020, 09:44:41 PM
It's amazing how many people don't grasp basic math and science here.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 08, 2020, 10:03:43 PM
Just to clarify, the 30k is ER visits, not people admitted. There are only 3000 annual hospitalizations for the flu per year in NJ. Is there a source for the 1000 deaths?
https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/indicator/view/PneuFluDeath.Trend.html
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2020, 10:06:38 PM
https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/indicator/view/PneuFluDeath.Trend.html

That's a total for flu and pneumonia combined. Considering how prevalent it is to see pneumonia on a death certificate as either the primary or secondary cause of death, especially with elderly people, that doesn't leave much for the flu. I believe @S209 had some interesting articles posted a while back about the CDC's numbers on flu+pneumonia deaths.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 08, 2020, 10:16:25 PM
That's a total for flu and pneumonia combined. Considering how prevalent it is to see pneumonia on a death certificate as either the primary or secondary cause of death, especially with elderly people, that doesn't leave much for the flu. I believe @S209 had some interesting articles posted a while back about the CDC's numbers on flu+pneumonia deaths.
They are counted together because they are usually in lockstep with one another during flu season and usually coexist. A huge chunk of covid deaths were ďpneumoniaĒ.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 08, 2020, 10:19:27 PM
Letís put things in context. We are not that far from flu season. In an average flu season in NJ there can be over 3,000 hospitalizations (including thousands of young people) and well over a thousand deaths. Covid in March greatly exceeded these numbers and had a somewhat larger proportion of the mortalities amount younger people than the flu. Right now that does not appear to be the case. A few Hatzalah calls is not a pandemic. Even a modest increase in infections and hospitalizations would not be a reason the go into panic mode.

FTFY

Once we're putting things into context, there were over 16,000 confirmed deaths from COVID in half a year, which on a annualized basis would mean 10x more people died from covid than the total flu hospitalizations in a regular year. All this despite social distancing the last 4 months which would bring flu hospitalization numbers to record lows.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 08, 2020, 10:19:39 PM
Just to clarify, the 30k is ER visits, not people admitted. There are only 3000 annual hospitalizations for the flu per year in NJ.

ETA: 400 current Covid hospitalizations represents 13% of all annual flu hospitalizations. And we're nowhere close to a peak. We're just at the very beginning of a second wave. I'd say that's pretty significant.
Fair enough. How many recent ER transports has Hatzolah done? How many recent ER covid visits have there been? Still insignificant.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 08, 2020, 10:21:02 PM
Fair enough. How many recent ER transports has Hatzolah done? How many recent ER covid visits have there been? Still insignificant.

Not to start rumors but I heard more sirens tonight then I have in the last 5 months. I really hope it's coincidental.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 08, 2020, 10:21:20 PM
FTFY

Once we're putting things into context, there were over 16,000 confirmed deaths from COVID in half a year, which on a annualized basis would mean 10x more people died from covid than the total flu hospitalizations in a regular year. All this despite social distancing the last 4 months which would bring flu hospitalization numbers to record lows.
No one is disputing that covid was far deadlier than flu in March. The question is are we blowing things out of proportion now?

All this despite social distancing the last 4 months which would bring flu hospitalization numbers to record lows.
Flu season is in the winter.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 08, 2020, 10:22:55 PM
Not to start rumors but I heard more sirens tonight then I have in the last 5 months. I really hope it's coincidental.
It's not.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 08, 2020, 10:26:07 PM
No one is disputing that covid was far deadlier than flu in March. The question is are we blowing things out of proportion now?

Who is we?
Jewish community is under reacting, everyone else is over reacting.
And yes there is plenty of reasonable compromises between the 2 paths.

Quote
Flu season is in the winter.

COVID is all year long.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 08, 2020, 10:49:38 PM
It's not.

Care to elaborate?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 08, 2020, 10:51:58 PM
Care to elaborate?
Hatzolah has been averaging multiple Covid calls a day for the past week to 10 days. And it's getting worse.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 08, 2020, 10:56:29 PM
No one is disputing that covid was far deadlier than flu in March. The question is are we blowing things out of proportion now?
Flu season is in the winter.
What is leasing you to think that it is less severe now than then?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shulemw on September 08, 2020, 11:05:26 PM
The 2 sides here would never agree one to the other so I really don't see a point to argue so much. I don't think the argument boils down to numbers and data so....

everybody has his shitah already and tries to see any way how to prove he is right

Nobody will say that people did not die in the masses in March and that people are not sick now. no argument on this

Argument between big rabanim and rebbes is how to react to this situation and it has nothing with us to take a side on it. Everybody should just follow his rav that he always followed till now and finish.

argument of the rabanim on the side that advocate for following all the social distincing measures is simple: not to cause deaths and hospitilization and stop the spread

argument of the other rabanim against all SD measures: is all the other side affects that come with all this SD, the affect it has on young children for years to come, the affect it has on youth at risk, the affect it had on all isolated eldery people, the affect it had on torah learning, the affect it had on people with serious illness that did not get proper treatments.

But i dont get why us small people should argue about this a whole day. just follow the rav you followed till now

P.S. i do believe my rav to know more and be more clever then all clever people here, and i really hope you all think like this of your rav too

The
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 08, 2020, 11:07:50 PM
2 of my cousins tested positive today in Lakewood

BTW, Dr Lebowitz isn't buying the virus got weaker theory at all.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 08, 2020, 11:24:19 PM
What is leasing you to think that it is less severe now than then?
Other posters have said at a minimum hundreds sick. Zero mortality. Near zero hospitalizations. Add in Monsey, BP, Queens, etc. and there are thousands of cases with a few hospitalized. Thatís very different than March.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 08, 2020, 11:34:27 PM
Other posters have said at a minimum hundreds sick. Zero mortality. Near zero hospitalizations. Add in Monsey, BP, Queens, etc. and there are thousands of cases with a few hospitalized. Thatís very different than March.

How do these numbers compare to a week before Purim?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 08, 2020, 11:40:51 PM
Other posters have said at a minimum hundreds sick. Zero mortality. Near zero hospitalizations. Add in Monsey, BP, Queens, etc. and there are thousands of cases with a few hospitalized. Thatís very different than March.

You really do not have a handle on reality.

It's much different now because people are much more aware of the symptoms.

anybody who got it in February or March most likely assumed that they had the flu..

Hundreds getting sick in population of hundreds of thousands means nothing.

Sure, less die due to better treatment, drugs, earlier intervention.

You're playing Monday morning quarterback on a Saturday.

You have your logic, it has no basis in reality, you make wild guesses and assumptions. .

Yes people are dying,
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 08, 2020, 11:42:39 PM
You really do not have a handle on reality.

You're playing Monday morning quarterback on a Saturday.

Man, you are on a roll!!!
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 08, 2020, 11:55:24 PM
You really do not have a handle on reality.

It's much different now because people are much more aware of the symptoms.

anybody who got it in February or March most likely assumed that they had the flu..

Hundreds getting sick in population of hundreds of thousands means nothing.

Sure, less die due to better treatment, drugs, earlier intervention.

You're playing Monday morning quarterback on a Saturday.

You have your logic, it has no basis in reality, you make wild guesses and assumptions. .

Yes people are dying,
If you say so

(https://i.postimg.cc/DZmnQNJ0/F0-DD4477-962-B-42-B6-AE01-E6-A146-AF8839.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 12:00:17 AM
Other posters have said at a minimum hundreds sick. Zero mortality. Near zero hospitalizations. Add in Monsey, BP, Queens, etc. and there are thousands of cases with a few hospitalized. Thatís very different than March.

Let's say you're right: this is all an overreaction and the concern is unwarranted. At what point would you say that changes? What signs or numbers would you look for to warrant concern and extra precautions?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 12:06:01 AM
Let's say you're right: this is all an overreaction and the concern is unwarranted. At what point would you say that changes? What signs or numbers would you look for to warrant concern and extra precautions?

(this isn't directed at @cmey specifically)

There are no numbers or signs; it's plain ol' optimism bias (with a dash of normalcy bias).

"It's not going to affect me negatively (and I really, really just want to get back to normal)."
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 09, 2020, 12:09:34 AM
Let's say you're right: this is all an overreaction and the concern is unwarranted. At what point would you say that changes? What signs or numbers would you look for to warrant concern and extra precautions?
We are not there right now. What do we do if things do get worse? IDK. Maybe itís time to just ride it out. Thatís what was done for the last hundred years until 2020. England is banning more than 6 people indoors due to resurgence. Again. Israel Is locking down due to resurgence. Again. Maybe itís better to ride it out with some restrictions as needed in places where there is an immediate risk of overwhelming the system. Wasnít that the original game plan?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 12:13:49 AM
We are not there right now. What do we do if things do get worse? IDK. Maybe itís time to just ride it out. Thatís what was done for the last hundred years until 2020. England is banning more than 6 people indoors due to resurgence. Again. Israel Is locking down due to resurgence. Again. Maybe itís better to ride it out with some restrictions as needed in places where there is an immediate risk of overwhelming the system. Wasnít that the original game plan?
Like cutting back on weddings and wearing masks?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 09, 2020, 12:15:16 AM
Like cutting back on weddings and wearing masks?
Is there an immediate risk of overwhelming the system? Hatzolah running out of ambulances? Hospitals at capacity? Then yes.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 12:17:23 AM
We are not there right now. What do we do if things do get worse? IDK. Maybe itís time to just ride it out. Thatís what was done for the last hundred years until 2020. England is banning more than 6 people indoors due to resurgence. Again. Israel Is locking down due to resurgence. Again. Maybe itís better to ride it out with some restrictions as needed in places where there is an immediate risk of overwhelming the system. Wasnít that the original game plan?

That's a lot to unwrap... It's too early to do anything now, but when it gets worse, whatever worse means, do nothing then, too. That's what we've done for the last 100 years during non-pandemic times, so we should just keep doing that. And reactive measures are being taken again, and we don't want that, so let's not take any preventive measures to ensure... reactive measures become necessary?

I'm having trouble understanding your position.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 09, 2020, 12:26:15 AM
That's a lot to unwrap... It's too early to do anything now, but when it gets worse, whatever worse means, do nothing then, too. That's what we've done for the last 100 years during non-pandemic times, so we should just keep doing that. And reactive measures are being taken again, and we don't want that, so let's not take any preventive measures to ensure... reactive measures become necessary?

I'm having trouble understanding your position.
The last 100 years during previous pandemics the reaction was not to shut down the entire country. Indeed, the game plan in March had one goal: flatten the curve. Stop the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

If the goal is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed and let covid run itís course then you take action only when there is an imminent threat of the system being overwhelmed.

If your game plan is to hold off until a vaccine hopefully saves the world then you can try what England and Israel are doing. Even so the current situation does not look to be as alarming as some are making it out to be.


 
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 12:31:32 AM
The last 100 years during previous pandemics the reaction was not to shut down the entire country.
If the goal is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed and let covid run itís course then you take action only when there is an imminent threat of the system being overwhelmed.

If your game plan is to hold off until a vaccine hopefully saves the world then you can try what England and Israel are doing. Even so the current situation does not look to be as alarming as some are making it out to be.
Who said anything about that?? You know that we are discussing minor precautions e.g. masks and wedding restrictions; you literally just agreed that those will be required if things get too bad.


Your position is that we should react, instead of taking proactive measures. That's where the disagreement is; there's no debate about the actual measures.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 12:34:51 AM
The last 100 years during previous pandemics the reaction was not to shut down the entire country.
If the goal is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed and let covid run itís course then you take action only when there is an imminent threat of the system being overwhelmed.

1) Which previous pandemics over the last 100 years?

2) When did keeping the hospitals from being overwhelmed become THE goal in dealing with the virus? It was one of the goals in the beginning, when it was a real concern. But the one and only goal?

3) You've mentioned locking down and shutting down the country a few times. You understand that the measures everyone is talking about here is to prevent that from happening, right? Doing nothing, like you suggest, makes a shutdown to avoid catastrophe more likely, not less.

If your game plan is to hold off until a vaccine hopefully saves the world then you can try what England and Israel are doing. Even so the current situation does not look to be as alarming as some are making it out to be.

My game plan is to take proactive measures to avoid what is happening in England and Israel altogether. Neither of those countries are models to emulate, IMO. As I stated before, the problem with reacting to facts on the ground is that you're always a few steps behind, and getting behind in this game virtually guarantees drastic measures will be taken to try to make up ground.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: ShimshonK on September 09, 2020, 12:37:04 AM
The last 100 years during previous pandemics the reaction was not to shut down the entire country. Indeed, the game plan in March had one goal: flatten the curve. Stop the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

If the goal is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed and let covid run itís course then you take action only when there is an imminent threat of the system being overwhelmed.

If your game plan is to hold off until a vaccine hopefully saves the world then you can try what England and Israel are doing. Even so the current situation does not look to be as alarming as some are making it out to be.
One of the greatest 'benefits' of a pandemic in today's world as opposed to 100 years ago is all the access to science, etc. that's now available. Your goal is to live like we didn't have this lifesaving science?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 09, 2020, 12:45:48 AM
1) Which previous pandemics over the last 100 years?

2) When did keeping the hospitals from being overwhelmed become THE goal in dealing with the virus? It was one of the goals in the beginning, when it was a real concern. But the one and only goal?

3) You've mentioned locking down and shutting down the country a few times. You understand that the measures everyone is talking about here is to prevent that from happening, right? Doing nothing, like you suggest, makes a shutdown to avoid catastrophe more likely, not less.

My game plan is to take proactive measures to avoid what is happening in England and Israel altogether. Neither of those countries are models to emulate, IMO. As I stated before, the problem with reacting to facts on the ground is that you're always a few steps behind, and getting behind in this game virtually guarantees drastic measures will be taken to try to make up ground.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/06/its-now-looking-like-the-lockdowns-may-have-been-a-huge-mistake/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

Quote
Certainly, they were a novelty. As novelist Lionel Shriver writes, ďWeíve never before responded to a contagion by closing down whole countries.Ē As Iíve noted, the 1957-58 Asian flu killed between 70,000 and 116,000 Americans, between 0.04 percent and 0.07 percent of the nationís population. The 1968-70 Hong Kong flu killed about 100,000, 0.05 percent of the population.

The US coronavirus death toll of 186,000 is 0.055 percent of the current population. It will go higher, but itís about the same magnitude as those two flus, and it has been less deadly to those under 65 than the flus were. Yet there were no statewide lockdowns; no massive school closings; no closings of office buildings and factories, restaurants and museums. No one considered shutting down Woodstock.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 12:51:18 AM
https://nypost.com/2020/09/06/its-now-looking-like-the-lockdowns-may-have-been-a-huge-mistake/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

Quote
Certainly, they were a novelty. As novelist Lionel Shriver writes, ďWeíve never before responded to a contagion by closing down whole countries.Ē As Iíve noted, the 1957-58 Asian flu killed between 70,000 and 116,000 Americans, between 0.04 percent and 0.07 percent of the nationís population. The 1968-70 Hong Kong flu killed about 100,000, 0.05 percent of the population.

The US coronavirus death toll of 186,000 is 0.055 percent of the current population. It will go higher, but itís about the same magnitude as those two flus, and it has been less deadly to those under 65 than the flus were. Yet there were no statewide lockdowns; no massive school closings; no closings of office buildings and factories, restaurants and museums. No one considered shutting down Woodstock.

This only seems to address my question about previous pandemics in the last 100 years. Neither of those viruses were nearly as contagious as Covid, and their death tolls in their entirety are less than Covid's first wave alone. Regardless, this seems to be an argument against lockdowns, which no one here has advocated for.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 09, 2020, 01:48:08 AM
The last 100 years during previous pandemics the reaction was not to shut down the entire country. Indeed, the game plan in March had one goal: flatten the curve. Stop the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

If the goal is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed and let covid run itís course then you take action only when there is an imminent threat of the system being overwhelmed.

If your game plan is to hold off until a vaccine hopefully saves the world then you can try what England and Israel are doing. Even so the current situation does not look to be as alarming as some are making it out to be.
We are talking about minimal measures to be taken in Lakewood to prevent people in Lakewood from dying. Is that still over your head? Nothing about overwhelming systems, previous pandemics, or shutting down countries. See?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 09, 2020, 01:58:29 AM
They are counted together because they are usually in lockstep with one another during flu season and usually coexist. A huge chunk of covid deaths were ďpneumoniaĒ.
You do realize the website explicitly states at the top of the page
https://www-doh.state.nj.us/doh-shad/indicator/view/PneuFluDeath.Trend.html
Quote
(Influenza and pneumonia are combined for ranking as a leading cause of death, however the majority of those deaths are due to pneumonia.)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 09, 2020, 08:41:33 AM
We are talking about minimal measures to be taken in Lakewood to prevent people in Lakewood from dying. Is that still over your head? Nothing about overwhelming systems, previous pandemics, or shutting down countries. See?

Weddings are over in two days for the next month so it is essentially a moot point.

The mask-wearing is not as benign as you make it out to be.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 08:48:36 AM
Weddings are over in two days for the next month so it is essentially a moot point.

The mask-wearing is not as benign as you make it out to be.
How so? I've worn a mask in public for 5 months, as have millions of people.

Also, Yom Tov could make weddings look like nothing. At least Sukkos comes complete with outdoor dining.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 08:52:34 AM
Simchas torah has purim potential.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 09:08:22 AM
Simchas torah has purim potential.

Fortunately, or unfortunately, we have 4 weeks until then. Enough people will get sick before then to diminish any real potential.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: SayWhat on September 09, 2020, 09:10:18 AM
We are not there right now. What do we do if things do get worse? IDK. Maybe itís time to just ride it out. Thatís what was done for the last hundred years until 2020. England is banning more than 6 people indoors due to resurgence. Again. Israel Is locking down due to resurgence. Again. Maybe itís better to ride it out with some restrictions as needed in places where there is an immediate risk of overwhelming the system. Wasnít that the original game plan?
This strategy sounds similar to yours. 



Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 09:38:47 AM
Simchas torah has purim potential.
I think rosh Hashanah does. Singing and shofar blowing in confined spaces without mask wearing for many hours.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Deal Guy on September 09, 2020, 09:47:08 AM
I think rosh Hashanah does. Singing and shofar blowing in confined spaces without mask wearing for many hours.
So daven well on Rosh Hashana that it shouldn't happen.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 09, 2020, 09:56:36 AM
Simchas torah has purim potential.
Nothing comes close to Purim.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 09:57:28 AM
So daven well on Rosh Hashana that it shouldn't happen.
Ein Somchin Al HaNeis.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: NTorch on September 09, 2020, 10:00:19 AM
Nothing comes close to Purim.

There is plenty of Torah (and not Purim Torah) about why Yom Kippur is actually K'Purim.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 09, 2020, 10:04:50 AM
There is plenty of Torah (and not Purim Torah) about why Yom Kippur is actually K'Purim.
This has nothing to do with COVID spreading.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 10:07:10 AM
It seems pretty short sighted to abandon all forms of common sense heath responsibility because we want to stick it to Democratic politicians. But here we are.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 09, 2020, 10:23:40 AM
I think rosh Hashanah does. Singing and shofar blowing in confined spaces without mask wearing for many hours.
One tremendous difference is that on RH it is mainly the same people the entire time.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 09, 2020, 10:37:26 AM
We are talking about minimal measures to be taken in Lakewood to prevent people in Lakewood from dying. Is that still over your head? Nothing about overwhelming systems, previous pandemics, or shutting down countries. See?
You are all taking it for granted that these measures would save lives. Iím betting that everyone is going to be exposed at some point. You can either drag it out in waves or get it over with. No difference  if 500 people are exposed each week on average for the next year in waves or if 25000 people are exposed now other than prolonged psychological torture with the former. You are seeing that play out in Israel.

The one caveat is if the healthcare system gets overwhelmed in option 2. Considering the current numbers that looks to be extremely remote.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 09, 2020, 10:39:09 AM
I think rosh Hashanah does. Singing and shofar blowing in confined spaces without mask wearing for many hours.
Maybe in your circles where there are many that show up in the big shul only on RH and YK. Most Lakewood neighborhoods have more or less the same folks that are there every shabbos.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 10:43:35 AM
Maybe in your circles where there are many that show up in the big shul only on RH and YK. Most Lakewood neighborhoods have more or less the same folks that are there every shabbos.

Women, children, length of davening, additional singing. There are definitely differences.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 09, 2020, 10:45:09 AM
Hearing that there's a letter coming out from the poskim by Monday.
What happened to the letter?
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 10:46:15 AM
What happened to the letter?
I have the same question. Heard it from more than 1 (reliable) person.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 10:47:57 AM
You are all taking it for granted that these measures would save lives. Iím betting that everyone is going to be exposed at some point. You can either drag it out in waves or get it over with. No difference  if 500 people are exposed each week on average for the next year in waves or if 25000 people are exposed now other than prolonged psychological torture with the former. You are seeing that play out in Israel.

The one caveat is if the healthcare system gets overwhelmed in option 2. Considering the current numbers that looks to be extremely remote.

Wearing masks and social distancing also lower the viral load people get, making the infections themselves less harmful. Additionally, as time goes on, better treatments become available, lessening the death toll and possibly the long-term impacts. And then we get to the length of time that antibodies confer immunity. There is absolutely nothing that says 25k people who get it right now cannot or will not get it again in a year.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 09, 2020, 11:37:39 AM
It seems pretty short sighted to abandon all forms of common sense heath responsibility because we want to stick it to Democratic politicians. But here we are.
Itís pretty disgusting for you to say that and judge entire communities like that. You disagree with the way others are living based on direction from their community leaders. You should listen to yours and let them listen to theirs.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 09, 2020, 11:43:22 AM
Itís pretty disgusting for you to say that and judge entire communities like that. You disagree with the way others are living based on direction from their community leaders. You should listen to yours and let them listen to theirs.
That's way too crazy, what would be the point of this if everyone can just follow their own leadership and not bash everyone else for not listening to theirs.  Would seem pointless.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 09, 2020, 11:44:38 AM
Women, children, length of davening, additional singing. There are definitely differences.

Doesn't seem like you are really understanding Lakewood shuls.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 11:55:22 AM
Doesn't seem like you are really understanding Lakewood.

FTFY. I guess not.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 12:03:18 PM
Doesn't seem like you are really understanding Lakewood shuls.
+100
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 12:13:36 PM
Doesn't seem like you are really understanding Lakewood shuls.

Do guests not come for Yom Tov?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 09, 2020, 12:17:22 PM
Do guests not come for Yom Tov?

Not much for RH
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 09, 2020, 12:24:09 PM
Doesn't seem like you are really understanding Lakewood shuls.
Yep, and same for most here, still doesn't stop them.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 09, 2020, 12:25:35 PM
Not much for RH
+1, its ימים נוראים, not a social event, some people have their married kids who want to be at their yeshiva. That's about it.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Dan on September 09, 2020, 12:28:33 PM
The davening isn't longer? There isn't more singing?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 12:29:10 PM
The Cheder is telling anyone on their staff who's not feeling well to take off 2 weeks "but make sure you don't get tested". Heard this from a rebbe there.

A guy in BMG who's not feeling well was told to go back to his hometown (Passaic) if he wants to get tested "but don't get tested in Lakewood". Heard from his friend.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 09, 2020, 12:35:50 PM
The davening isn't longer? There isn't more singing?
Davening is way longer, but almost no singing in any yeshivish place. And no women
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 09, 2020, 12:36:29 PM
The Cheder is telling anyone on their staff who's not feeling well to take off 2 weeks "but make sure you don't get tested". Heard this from a rebbe there.

A guy in BMG who's not feeling well was told to go back to his hometown (Passaic) if he wants to get tested "but don't get tested in Lakewood". Heard from his friend.

Maybe the game plan is that the rabbeim should at least know the kids before they inevitably move to conferences.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 09, 2020, 12:37:26 PM
Davening is way longer, but no singing in any yeshivish place. And no women

Maybe you don't consider it yeshivish enough, but there most definitely is singing during many of the piyutim in some batei medrash in BMG.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 09, 2020, 12:39:11 PM
Maybe you don't consider it yeshivish enough, but there most definitely is singing during many of the piyutim in some batei medrash in BMG.
Not in the main minyanim. In any case its not a concert with hours of singing like more modern places.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 12:41:27 PM
Not in the main minyanim. In any case its not a concert with hours of singing like more modern places.

I wouldn't call the Chassidish places modern. None of those in Lakewood?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 09, 2020, 12:42:05 PM
Not in the main minyanim. In any case its not a concert with hours of singing like more modern places.
NME in minyanim in the Simcha Room, Bais Shalom, and the DR, not sure where that minyan is now. But most definitely not a concert.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 09, 2020, 12:43:23 PM
Davening is way longer, but no singing in any yeshivish place. And no women
This does not accurately describe the majority of the places where people will be davening in Lakewood.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 12:44:13 PM
NME in minyanim in the Simcha Room, Bais Shalom, and the DR, not sure where that minyan is now. But most definitely not a concert.

The concerts aren't the problem. It's the more heimishe minyanim where everyone is singing.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 09, 2020, 12:44:21 PM
This does not accurately describe the majority of the places where people will be davening in Lakewood.
Aha, In ur shul most women stay for more then shofer?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 09, 2020, 12:48:13 PM
Aha, In ur shul most women stay for more then shofer?
Yes. In my 40 plus years of living in Lakewood, the ezras noshim of every shul that i davened in was packed on yomim noraim. May be mostly teens and older women but not an empty seat. And pretty sure its like that in most places around town.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 09, 2020, 12:48:56 PM
Wearing masks and social distancing also lower the viral load people get, making the infections themselves less harmful. Additionally, as time goes on, better treatments become available, lessening the death toll and possibly the long-term impacts. And then we get to the length of time that antibodies confer immunity. There is absolutely nothing that says 25k people who get it right now cannot or will not get it again in a year.

There are many arguments, #1 everyone getting it at once overwhelmed the healthcare system, most people just don't understand this.

Shutting the country down reduced hospitalizations from car crashes etc it actually helped free up resources. .

But the short answer is, wearing a mask enables us to resume normal life, his logic that everyone will get it is just disgusting, there are many people who want to get out but can't if people don't wear masks.

Furthermore, there's no indication that "everyone will get it" because there's a vaccine in the works. ..

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 12:57:25 PM
Maybe the game plan is that the rabbeim should at least know the kids before they inevitably move to conferences.
Brilliant plan that would be. /s
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 09, 2020, 12:58:16 PM
NME in the minyan in the Simcha Room, the DR, and now Bais Shalom. But most definitely not a concert.
FTFY
Assuming you're talking about Brustowsky/Frost
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 12:59:07 PM
The Cheder is telling anyone on their staff who's not feeling well to take off 2 weeks "but make sure you don't get tested". Heard this from a rebbe there.

A guy in BMG who's not feeling well was told to go back to his hometown (Passaic) if he wants to get tested "but don't get tested in Lakewood". Heard from his friend.
If there are implied consequences of getting tested, such as being fired, this sounds pretty illegal.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yitzgar on September 09, 2020, 01:01:50 PM
If there are implied consequences of getting tested, such as being fired, this sounds pretty illegal.
Doubtful that there are any such implied consequences...
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 01:03:00 PM
There are many arguments, #1 everyone getting it at once overwhelmed the healthcare system, most people just don't understand this.

Shutting the country down reduced hospitalizations from car crashes etc it actually helped free up resources. .

But the short answer is, wearing a mask enables us to resume normal life, his logic that everyone will get it is just disgusting, there are many people who want to get out but can't if people don't wear masks.

Furthermore, there's no indication that "everyone will get it" because there's a vaccine in the works. ..
I think there's a false dichotomy going on where it's either "normal" or shutdown. There's a ton of middle ground.

I think the ideal should be to be in the middle ground for the next 6 months in the hope that the vaccines will become available as promised.

Exactly what restrictions should and shouldn't happen in this middle ground are debatable, and should largely be specific for different communities, but I think it's absurd to say that we should do nothing since everyone either got it or will get it.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 09, 2020, 01:10:17 PM
I think there's a false dichotomy going on where it's either "normal" or shutdown. There's a ton of middle ground.

I think the ideal should be to be in the middle ground for the next 6 months in the hope that the vaccines will become available as promised.

Exactly what restrictions should and shouldn't happen in this middle ground are debatable, and should largely be specific for different communities, but I think it's absurd to say that we should do nothing since everyone either got it or will get it.

Thats why we have rabbonim and religious leaders who tell us what to do, we don't do whatever we want. The basic principle of Judaism is that there are higher powers,  God and then down the chain to rabbonim. This isn't an i feel we should do this or I read on the cdc website that. Everyone should be listening to their leaders and stop complaining about everyone else.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 01:11:13 PM
This conversation has piqued my curiosity. What do Lakewood shuls look like on a regular basis? Loud/quiet davening? Any singing? Do women come? Children?
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 01:16:00 PM
This conversation has piqued my curiosity. What do Lakewood shuls look like on a regular basis? Loud/quiet davening? Any singing? Do women come? Children?
In general on shabbos (there are plenty of exceptions):
Quiet davening
Singing by lcha dodi, sometimes kedusha
Few women
Young kids only at end of Davening; boys over 8 a large part of Davening
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 01:19:22 PM
In general on shabbos (there are plenty of exceptions):
Quiet davening
Singing by lcha dodi, sometimes kedusha
Few women
Young kids only at end of Davening; boys over 8 a large part of Davening

And on the Yomim Noraim, the davening stays quiet, no singing, and few women or young children come to shul?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yelped on September 09, 2020, 01:19:46 PM
In general on shabbos (there are plenty of exceptions):
Quiet davening
Singing by lcha dodi, sometimes kedusha
Few women
Young kids only at end of Davening; boys over 8 a large part of Davening
Chassidish shuls are obviously different.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 09, 2020, 01:58:51 PM
There are many arguments, #1 everyone getting it at once overwhelmed the healthcare system, most people just don't understand this.

Shutting the country down reduced hospitalizations from car crashes etc it actually helped free up resources. .

But the short answer is, wearing a mask enables us to resume normal life, his logic that everyone will get it is just disgusting, there are many people who want to get out but can't if people don't wear masks.

Furthermore, there's no indication that "everyone will get it" because there's a vaccine in the works. ..
Freed up resources like these?

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients

It was a major error and a fiasco. There was no overload. They built 600 million dollars worth of field hospitals and treated basically zero patients. The researchers and models made one of the biggest modeling errors in modern times. It was indirectly responsible for Cuomo and Murphy sending untold numbers of nursing home patients to their deaths.

As for a vaccine anytime soon, keep hoping.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1239581
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Jeremiah on September 09, 2020, 02:04:25 PM

I think the ideal should be to be in the middle ground for the next 6 months in the hope that the vaccines will become available as promised.
So if it takes longer then we should keep up the restrictions for the inevitable? How long should we have to keep doing this? There has to be an exit strategy. Even if they have a vaccine we don't now hoe effective and how quickly it will work
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 09, 2020, 02:20:58 PM
The mask-wearing is not as benign as you make it out to be.

How so? I've worn a mask in public for 5 months, as have millions of people.

Mask wearing when you go into a store is just an annoyance, worse than seatbelts but not worth fighting. Sitting hours in shul davening (or learning) with a mask is very disruptive to a normal davening, especially if one does more than whisper the words. The bahalla created in those schools that are implementing all the CDC or other doctor's meshugasim regarding masks and forms and testing and staggering hallway traffic and toilet wiping for 4 year olds and up, etc. etc. creates a major hindrance to productive learning and is very stressful to students. Imagine a hard of hearing student trying to understand the teacher who is sitting behind a plexiglass, muffled by a mask and can't see her lips or facial expressions. This same obstacle applies to interactions with masked friends. I have heard this first-hand. There are many other consequences to mask wearing (look up dry eyes). So it isn't benign.

If the science has proven that singing is as great a threat to the spread of COVID as is being assumed, then lets all put on masks for singing or choose not to sing with the tzibbur. But all masks all the time for an unknown eternity (yes, it would be no surprise if masks are still the norm in 2023) is an argument that will be very hard to sell to those who don't want to wear them at all.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 02:31:12 PM
I love it when people talk about a pandemic like it's optional or controllable. We need to have exit strategies, or sell people on masks, because if we don't, they'll just opt out of Covid. "Sorry, I don't want to participate. Please put me on your Do Not Call list."
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 09, 2020, 02:34:45 PM
In general on shabbos (there are plenty of exceptions):
Quiet davening
Singing by lcha dodi, sometimes kedusha
Few women
Young kids only at end of Davening; boys over 8 a large part of Davening

I would add, singing by kel adon in many shuls. (More shuls will sing kel adon than kedusha in my experience.)
Women, depends on the neighborhood really. In a young development most women will be home with their children and there arent many teens as the families are younger. In older areas you will find more women in shul and plenty of teens. Its more a question of practicality than anything else IMHO.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 02:35:02 PM
I love it when people talk about a pandemic like it's optional or controllable. We need to have exit strategies, or sell people on masks, because if we don't, they'll just opt out of Covid. "Sorry, I don't want to participate. Please put me on your Do Not Call list."
+100.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Jeremiah on September 09, 2020, 02:35:43 PM
Great so feel free to buy into all this stuff for the next few years. Others won't
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 02:39:10 PM
Great so feel free to buy into all this stuff for the next few years. Others won't

And if you don't "buy in" it goes away? Like taking the blue or red pill?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 09, 2020, 02:46:20 PM
I love it when people talk about a pandemic like it's optional or controllable. We need to have exit strategies, or sell people on masks, because if we don't, they'll just opt out of Covid. "Sorry, I don't want to participate. Please put me on your Do Not Call list."

Its exactly this absolutist argument - "Not wearing a mask all the time = COVID" - that is creating the pushback in this forum. As if all laws of probability are suspended and everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times no matter what.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 09, 2020, 02:48:00 PM
Optimism bias is a real thing. It affects every single person in the world; and it's arguably the strongest bias.
I think some here have pessimism bias
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 02:48:26 PM
I think some here have pessimism bias
(Sorry about the delete, I wanted to rephrase it.)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 02:51:02 PM
Its exactly this absolutist argument - "Not wearing a mask all the time = COVID" - that is creating the pushback in this forum. As if all laws of probability are suspended and everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times no matter what.
That's not at all the mask argument.

The mask argument is that the more people wear masks, the less covid transmits overall. Therefore, everyone always needs to wear a mask or the whole system falls apart.

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 02:53:35 PM
9 new cases via OCHD.

(This is the last time I'm going to post these numbers; because of the cover up they aren't representative of what's going on.)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 09, 2020, 03:07:04 PM
9 new cases via OCHD.

(This is the last time I'm going to post these numbers; because of the cover up they aren't representative of what's going on.)
When did the coverup start? The weekly average was going up until 3 days ago, now it's going down.
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 03:09:01 PM
When did the coverup start? The weekly average was going up until 3 days ago, now it's going down.
I'm assuming the coordination has gotten better over the past week or so.

How else do you reconcile these numbers with the anecdotes? I have no other answer.

There is probably a Labor Day lag involved though.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 09, 2020, 03:11:17 PM
When did the coverup start? The weekly average was going up until 3 days ago, now it's going down.
I wouldn't call it a cover up. Its not like OCHD is covering up anything. But it's quite obvious that the numbers that are being reported to them represent a drop in the bucket of what's really going on. A simple conversation with any doctor in town will confirm that.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 09, 2020, 03:11:47 PM
I'm assuming the coordination has gotten better over the past week or so.

How else do you reconcile these numbers with the anecdotes? I have no other answer.

There is probably a Labor Day lag involved though.
Maybe cases really are going back down. Labor day may explain in, we'll find out in a few days.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 03:11:58 PM
Its exactly this absolutist argument - "Not wearing a mask all the time = COVID" - that is creating the pushback in this forum. As if all laws of probability are suspended and everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times no matter what.

Which part of the argument do you believe is absolute? That masks prevent the spread of the disease? Yes, that is absolute. That masks need to be worn all the time or you'll automatically get Covid? I never made that argument. Nuance strikes again.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 03:12:47 PM
Maybe cases really are going back down. Labor day may explain in, we'll find out in a few days.
That would be a really welcome surprise if cases are really decreasing.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 03:13:17 PM
I wouldn't call it a cover up. Its not like OCHD is covering up anything. But it's quite obvious that the numbers that are being reported to them represent a drop in the bucket of what's really going on. A simple conversation with any doctor in town will confirm that.

The cover-up isn't on OCHD's part. It's people hiding data from OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: NTorch on September 09, 2020, 03:15:34 PM
Its exactly this absolutist argument - "Not wearing a mask all the time = COVID" - that is creating the pushback in this forum. As if all laws of probability are suspended and everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times no matter what.

I don't think that there is anyone that believes that "everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times" and completely agree with you that the laws of probability can apply in the absence of HP.

But lets talk probability and use the seat belt example someone came up with last month which I really think has value.

#1 - You are driving on a road with no one else for miles and you know that no one is coming at you. There is little to no danger in not wearing a seat belt. This is the same as not wearing a mask in your backyard or walking in a forest with no one around.

#2 - You are driving on a road with some traffic and you are an excellent driver. There is some danger in not wearing a seat belt, because if another car comes into your lane, you need to be protected from being ejected and you need to stay in control of the car to protect your passengers. This is the same as wearing a mask in light crowd settings - as skilled as you are in avoiding others, if someone comes over to talk to you and they are carrying the virus, what protects you? And what stops you from spreading it to your family?

#3 - You are driving a car in rush hour traffic or a rain/snow storm. You are still an excellent driver, but there are many crazies out there who are in a rush to get home, or people who can't see you because of the weather. The seat belt is essential to protect you and the passengers in your car. As careful as you are, you need the seat belt in case someone acts in a dangerous manner. You even ask your kids in the backseat to put on seat belts because the conditions are dangerous.  This is the same as wearing a mask at a wedding, or on the subway or some other packed area.

Yes, wearing a mask is a nuisance and more restrictive than going without. But so are seatbelts and we wear them to protect ourselves and those around us.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yzj on September 09, 2020, 03:16:57 PM
Meanwhile Lakewood life goes on, maskless, blissfully unaware of the raging debate on DDF about what they should be doing.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Jeremiah on September 09, 2020, 03:18:50 PM
That's not at all the mask argument.

The mask argument is that the more people wear masks, the less covid transmits overall. Therefore, everyone always needs to wear a mask or the whole system falls apart.
Less transmission won't eliminate the virus. So you till when should we "take charge" and slow it down?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 03:19:48 PM
I don't think that there is anyone that believes that "everyone will get it under all circumstances unless we all wear a mask at all times" and completely agree with you that the laws of probability can apply in the absence of HP.

But lets talk probability and use the seat belt example someone came up with last month which I really think has value.

#1 - You are driving on a road with no one else for miles and you know that no one is coming at you. There is little to no danger in not wearing a seat belt. This is the same as not wearing a mask in your backyard or walking in a forest with no one around.

#2 - You are driving on a road with some traffic and you are an excellent driver. There is some danger in not wearing a seat belt, because if another car comes into your lane, you need to be protected from being ejected and you need to stay in control of the car to protect your passengers. This is the same as wearing a mask in light crowd settings - as skilled as you are in avoiding others, if someone comes over to talk to you and they are carrying the virus, what protects you? And what stops you from spreading it to your family?

#3 - You are driving a car in rush hour traffic or a rain/snow storm. You are still an excellent driver, but there are many crazies out there who are in a rush to get home, or people who can't see you because of the weather. The seat belt is essential to protect you and the passengers in your car. As careful as you are, you need the seat belt in case someone acts in a dangerous manner. You even ask your kids in the backseat to put on seat belts because the conditions are dangerous.  This is the same as wearing a mask at a wedding, or on the subway or some other packed area.

Yes, wearing a mask is a nuisance and more restrictive than going without. But so are seatbelts and we wear them to protect ourselves and those around us.
The only issue with this analogy is it's not the wearer's risk tolerance that's paramount - it's the risk tolerance of those around him.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 03:21:27 PM
Less transmission won't eliminate the virus. So you till when should we "take charge" and slow it down?

Wonder what your take would have been during the AIDS crisis...
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 09, 2020, 03:22:13 PM
Less transmission won't eliminate the virus. So you till when should we "take charge" and slow it down?
It should be slowed down until R0 is persistently below 1. We aren't there yet by a long shot.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: NTorch on September 09, 2020, 03:26:00 PM
The only issue with this analogy is it's not the wearer's risk tolerance that's paramount - it's the risk tolerance of those around him.

I'm not sure that I follow, can you please explain?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 09, 2020, 03:42:13 PM
I'm not sure that I follow, can you please explain?

Widespread mask usage is more about keeping infected people from spreading the virus than it is about keeping uninfected people from getting sick.

An infected person is like a drunk driver. On a country road, no one will know the difference. During rush hour in the city, he causes a wide web of damage. You can wear your seatbelt, and it may help minimize your injuries from an accident, but you can't stop the impaired driver from smashing into you. A mask is like putting massive bumpers on the impaired driver's vehicle. Now when he interacts with you, there may still be damage, but it is lessened considerably.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 09, 2020, 03:53:18 PM
Meanwhile Lakewood life goes on, maskless, blissfully unaware of the raging debate on DDF about what they should be doing.
well put.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 09, 2020, 04:01:19 PM
If possible please move this discussion to the Masks thread
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 09, 2020, 04:38:20 PM
And if you don't "buy in" it goes away? Like taking the blue or red pill?

An interesting article about when a pandemic "goes away": https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: ShimshonK on September 09, 2020, 10:54:31 PM
I'm betting that everyone is going to be exposed at some point. You can either drag it out in waves or get it over with.
How much are you willing to bet on this one, because that's a ridiculous assumption. To date, 'only' a minority of the country has actually gotten it (most of those before precautions were put in place or in locations with less precautions) and you assume 100% of people will get it with precautions??

It was a major error and a fiasco. There was no overload. They built 600 million dollars worth of field hospitals and treated basically zero patients. The researchers and models made one of the biggest modeling errors in modern times.
Preparing for the worst is the proper approach.
Many people pay tens of thousands of dollars in their lifetime to life insurance that thank God goes unused. Is that also a "modeling error"?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yesitsme on September 09, 2020, 11:05:22 PM
we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 09, 2020, 11:06:55 PM
I asked a teller in Lakewood's Santander Bank (very busy bank) if any employees got corona, she said "no".
Masks work.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 09, 2020, 11:09:44 PM
Maybe cases really are going back down. Labor day may explain in, we'll find out in a few days.
I personally know 3 people that tested positive yesterday. According to you, 33% of the positive cases yesterday, I know personally.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 09, 2020, 11:18:33 PM
How much are you willing to bet on this one, because that's a ridiculous assumption. To date, 'only' a minority of the country has actually gotten it (most of those before precautions were put in place or in locations with less precautions) and you assume 100% of people will get it with precautions??
Preparing for the worst is the proper approach.
Many people pay tens of thousands of dollars in their lifetime to life insurance that thank God goes unused. Is that also a "modeling error"?
Paying for unused insurance costs money. This costed tens of thousands of lived among the elderly. Itís not like it was off. The scenarios painted had no basis in reality whatsoever.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 09, 2020, 11:20:52 PM
I personally know 3 people that tested positive yesterday. According to you, 33% of the positive cases yesterday, I know personally.

I don't think it is clear that OCHD is reporting the results of the previous days tests. It is likely that they are reporting whatever results were reported to them by the labs rhe previous day. The labs may be reporting the same days results or possibly the previous days or maybe the past 2 days. Or maybe some labs report the same day, others the following day etc. IOW, even if everything was being reported to OCHD (ha!) the numbers would still not necessarily represent yesterday's testing. 
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: ShimshonK on September 09, 2020, 11:22:22 PM
Paying for unused insurance costs money. This costed tens of thousands of lived among the elderly. Itís not like it was off. The scenarios painted had no basis in reality whatsoever.
Do please explain how NY spending money on building additional hospitals killed tens of thousands.

And there was plenty basis in reality.
Even you mentioned about hospitals being overwhelmed in March -
Indeed, the game plan in March had one goal: flatten the curve. Stop the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: grodnoking on September 09, 2020, 11:40:05 PM


Do please explain how NY spending money on building additional hospitals killed tens of thousands.

The hospitals that they refused to send the elderly to, and ended up never being used?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: grodnoking on September 09, 2020, 11:41:10 PM
we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

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we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask

we need to wear a mask

we dont need to wear a mask
Thank you for summarizing this thread!
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 09, 2020, 11:41:42 PM
I asked a teller in Lakewood's Santander Bank (very busy bank) if any employees got corona, she said "no".
Masks work.
With logic like that you can write for cnn
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 09, 2020, 11:43:02 PM
There was plenty basis in reality.
And do please explain how NY spending money on building additional hospitals killed tens of thousands.
Have you been following the sequence of events? The governors of several states saw the modeling that predicted massive shortages of hospital beds, ICUís and vents that was supposed to result in mass casualties due to lack of capacity. They panicked, and put all of their resources into building field hospitals and the like, and decided that freeing up hospital capacity was so crucial that it made sense to sacrifice the seniors by emptying the hospital wards of seniors who were contagious with covid, and sending them back into long term care facilities, which resulted in tens of thousands of resident deaths. They left the seniors to die in the LTC facilities, not even bothering to move them to the empty field hospitals and hospital ships because that wouldnít leave room for the massive overload of younger covid patients the model predicted were soon to come.

A more realistic assessment would have made it obvious that the exact opposite was necessary; deploy all resources to protect the highest risk seniors. Instead of field hospitals, they should have equipped LTC facilities with adequate PPE and large scale testing. Positive seniors should have been moved away from the healthy population. The result would have been a fraction of the death toll.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: grodnoking on September 09, 2020, 11:44:17 PM

Look at the numbers! How can you be in denial?! LOOK AT THE NUMBERS!!!

A few days later...

The numbers are FAKE! There is a cover up! DONT LOOK AT THE NUMBERS!!!
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yitzgar on September 09, 2020, 11:47:58 PM
Look at the numbers! How can you be in denial?! LOOK AT THE NUMBERS!!!

A few days later...

The numbers are FAKE! There is a cover up! DONT LOOK AT THE NUMBERS!!!
Question is if this goes both ways....
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: ShimshonK on September 09, 2020, 11:50:16 PM
Have you been following the sequence of events? The governors of several states saw the modeling that predicted massive shortages of hospital beds, ICUís and vents that was supposed to result in mass casualties due to lack of capacity. They panicked, and put all of their resources into building field hospitals and the like, and decided that freeing up hospital capacity was so crucial that it made sense to sacrifice the seniors by emptying the hospital wards of seniors who were contagious with covid, and sending them back into long term care facilities, which resulted in tens of thousands of resident deaths. They left the seniors to die in the LTC facilities, not even bothering to move them to the empty field hospitals and hospital ships because that wouldnít leave room for the massive overload of younger covid patients the model predicted were soon to come.

A more realistic assessment would have made it obvious that the exact opposite was necessary; deploy all resources to protect the highest risk seniors. Instead of field hospitals, they should have equipped LTC facilities with adequate PPE and large scale testing. Positive seniors should have been moved away from the healthy population.
Definitely fair to say that in hindsight, some wrong calls were made, especially with regard to sending the covid infected seniors back to the nursing homes.

Now, let's do our part, and not kill any more people.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 09, 2020, 11:54:32 PM
Definitely fair to say that in hindsight, some wrong calls were made, especially with regard to sending the covid infected seniors back to the nursing homes.
Everyone makes Cuomo and Murphy out to be some sort of murderous villains for what they did to the seniors, but to be fair they simply bought into the models and decided to sacrifice the seniors for the greater good.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 09, 2020, 11:54:57 PM

The hospitals that they refused to send the elderly to, and ended up never being used?
Yes those. How did they kill people?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: grodnoking on September 10, 2020, 12:01:31 AM
Yes those. How did they kill people?

Not using them killed people. If they would have sent the elderly to a field hospital, there most likely would have been many less lives lost in nursing homes. A 33 page essay the governor had written up describes how it is not his fault because he didn't say explicitly that if the nursing homes would refuse the patients they would be hung for treason. They still COULD have even with the underlying threats made. (Ok, not literally treason)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: grodnoking on September 10, 2020, 12:03:13 AM


Sacrifice the seniors for the greater good.

Please excuse me while I gather my jaw off the floor.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 10, 2020, 12:06:45 AM
Yes those. How did they kill people?
You donít think diverting massive amounts of funding (they spent 270 million just on the 2 field hospitals on Long Island that never treated a single patient) , manpower, equipment, and PPE toward the field hospitals killed people?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 10, 2020, 12:09:11 AM

Please excuse me while I gather my jaw off the floor.
Well the bottom line is they truly thought they were saving untold numbers of younger people by doing so. Isnít that what the liberal notion of health care rationing is all about?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 10, 2020, 12:24:17 AM
With logic like that you can write for cnn
It's actually flawless logic. 20 people that work in highly trafficked bank, that wore masks, didn't get it. In the surrounding non-mask wearing community there was at least a 50% infection rate.

Dr. Kassover from Chemed told my mother, that none of the Chemed workers were infected, even though it probably had the most corona spreading people in the whole Lakewood. My parents both wear masks after that conversation.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: drosenberg88429 on September 10, 2020, 12:38:36 AM
You donít think diverting massive amounts of funding (they spent 270 million just on the 2 field hospitals on Long Island that never treated a single patient) , manpower, equipment, and PPE toward the field hospitals killed people?

Please elaborate how that killed people.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: drosenberg88429 on September 10, 2020, 12:50:23 AM
Instead of field hospitals, they should have equipped LTC facilities with adequate PPE and large scale testing. Positive seniors should have been moved away from the healthy population. The result would have been a fraction of the death toll.

This was the protocol that was supposed to be followed. A SNF was supposed to be following the same protocols and equipped with the same gear as hospitals. They explicitly said that any SNF that could not maintain CDC recommended standards for case isolation should let them know and not accept COVID positive patients. In hindsight, it is possible that this was not a good move.

The reality is that the NYC medical infrastructure is a bunch of individual institutions that do not operate through one central system. If there would have been one central command center coordinating which ambulances bring patients where based on real time capacity data, the field hospitals and ship could have been seamlessly integrated into the network. Being as it is a bunch of private institutions that operate independently of each other, each with their own ambulance network connections developed, this is not what happened. The way it was, supplies and case load were not efficiently distributed.  Therefore, the new unnetworked hospitals were left vacant, while the pre-existing facilities were overwhelmed.

There was and still is not a method for an overriding system to assume control of coordination of hospitals in case of a mass casualty incident. This is a major gap in the system.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 01:09:00 AM
It's actually flawless logic. 20 people that work in highly trafficked bank, that wore masks, didn't get it. In the surrounding non-mask wearing community there was at least a 50% infection rate.

Dr. Kassover from Chemed told my mother, that none of the Chemed workers were infected, even though it probably had the most corona spreading people in the whole Lakewood. My parents both wear masks after that conversation.
I know workers who work at highly trafficked supermarkets that  don't wear masks, don't sit 10 feet from other people, don't have a bulletproof plexiglass in front of them and not one got covid. Masks don't make a difference , the end.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 01:10:55 AM


In the surrounding non-mask wearing community there was at least a 50% infection rate.



Of people that work at banks? You can't be serious.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 10, 2020, 01:45:34 AM
Well the bottom line is they truly thought they were saving untold numbers of younger people by doing so. Isnít that what the liberal notion of health care rationing is all about?

Thereís nothing liberal about using limited resources to save people with the greatest chance of living. Thatís literally triage and the accepted standard worldwide.

But I fail to see how that would be a good excuse for Cuomo.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 10, 2020, 01:57:42 AM
This was the protocol that was supposed to be followed. A SNF was supposed to be following the same protocols and equipped with the same gear as hospitals. They explicitly said that any SNF that could not maintain CDC recommended standards for case isolation should let them know and not accept COVID positive patients. In hindsight, it is possible that this was not a good move.

The reality is that the NYC medical infrastructure is a bunch of individual institutions that do not operate through one central system. If there would have been one central command center coordinating which ambulances bring patients where based on real time capacity data, the field hospitals and ship could have been seamlessly integrated into the network. Being as it is a bunch of private institutions that operate independently of each other, each with their own ambulance network connections developed, this is not what happened. The way it was, supplies and case load were not efficiently distributed.  Therefore, the new unnetworked hospitals were left vacant, while the pre-existing facilities were overwhelmed.

There was and still is not a method for an overriding system to assume control of coordination of hospitals in case of a mass casualty incident. This is a major gap in the system.

Very insightful. Havenít seen this explanation before. However, IIRC the field hospitals were not meant for serious COVID patients. It was meant for emptying out wards to free up space in hospitals, or for moderate cases/seniors with COVID. You donít need to coordinate ambulances in real time for that.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 02:21:31 AM
Definitely fair to say that in hindsight, some wrong calls were made, especially with regard to sending the covid infected seniors back to the nursing homes.

Now, let's do our part, and not kill any more people.
Some wrong calls? You realize that 25% of the deaths in the us were in ny/nj? And of those over 30% were in nursing homes. Ny/nj have far more deaths then most countries. Some wrong calls? Sometimes I see things here and I need to read it twice because there's no way someone could actually say that.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: ShimshonK on September 10, 2020, 02:30:52 AM
Sometimes I see things here and I need to read it twice because there's no way someone could actually say that.
Masks don't make a difference , the end.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: moko on September 10, 2020, 07:52:04 AM
Thank you for summarizing this thread!
you lose 3 ht's and 1000 posts for quoting that post  :)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 10, 2020, 07:57:53 AM
This was the protocol that was supposed to be followed. A SNF was supposed to be following the same protocols and equipped with the same gear as hospitals. They explicitly said that any SNF that could not maintain CDC recommended standards for case isolation should let them know and not accept COVID positive patients. In hindsight, it is possible that this was not a good move.

False, that claim comes from the general rule that a nursing home has to be able to provide care for those that it accepts. The problem is that the nursing homes couldnít test anyone as per state rules so they didnít know who was contagious and who wasnít. There was no specific protocol on isolation, itís simply not true no matter how many times coward Zucker says it.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: drosenberg88429 on September 10, 2020, 08:15:54 AM
Very insightful. Havenít seen this explanation before. However, IIRC the field hospitals were not meant for serious COVID patients. It was meant for emptying out wards to free up space in hospitals, or for moderate cases/seniors with COVID. You donít need to coordinate ambulances in real time for that.

You need a centralized system to systemically empty out hospitals. Transferring patients is always a big deal, especially when there is no ambulance availability. There fact that the hospitals were profiting off each patient was not helpful to that end either. At the end of the day, I hate to say it, this accentuates the benefits of socialized medicine. USA healthcare is more than halfway socialized anyways-this way we just get the worst of both worlds.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 10, 2020, 09:15:33 AM

Not using them killed people. If they would have sent the elderly to a field hospital, there most likely would have been many less lives lost in nursing homes. A 33 page essay the governor had written up describes how it is not his fault because he didn't say explicitly that if the nursing homes would refuse the patients they would be hung for treason. They still COULD have even with the underlying threats made. (Ok, not literally treason)
Great so that money was spent on them didn't kill anyone? So you agree that his question is a valid one and just choose to reply from left field?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 10, 2020, 09:21:33 AM
Some wrong calls? You realize that 25% of the deaths in the us were in ny/nj? And of those over 30% were in nursing homes. Ny/nj have far more deaths then most countries. Some wrong calls? Sometimes I see things here and I need to read it twice because there's no way someone could actually say that.
According to my math that makes comes out to about 8% of total deaths from an illness at which seniors are at much higher risk. Now that you put it in perspective it dies not sound all that bad.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cholent on September 10, 2020, 09:33:40 AM
According to my math that makes comes out to about 8% of total deaths from an illness at which seniors are at much higher risk. Now that you put it in perspective it dies not sound all that bad.
Your math is missing something pretty basic
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 10, 2020, 09:44:55 AM
According to my math that makes comes out to about 8% of total deaths from an illness at which seniors are at much higher risk. Now that you put it in perspective it dies not sound all that bad.
Thatís because NY did the numbers trick. A nursing home patient who was wheeled out with a pulse is not counted as a nursing home death. In NJ and PA which had the same mandate over 43% and 67% of deaths were from nursing homes. NY likely falls somewhere in between.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 10, 2020, 09:55:34 AM
Thatís because NY did the numbers trick. A nursing home patient who was wheeled out with a pulse is not counted as a nursing home death. In NJ and PA which had the same mandate over 43% and 67% of deaths were from nursing homes. NY likely falls somewhere in between.
That may be, but it does not make his statement any more correct.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 10:04:30 AM

Wow, that went right over your head.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 10:06:04 AM
According to my math that makes comes out to about 8% of total deaths from an illness at which seniors are at much higher risk. Now that you put it in perspective it dies not sound all that bad.
8% of all the deaths in the US were from ny/nj  nursing homes.. your missing 48 other states... and those are just people who actually died in a nursing home from covid. Not someone who died at a hospital.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: flyingace on September 10, 2020, 10:14:00 AM
Anyone have any DP regarding vomiting as the only symptom for Covid?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Eb228 on September 10, 2020, 10:31:11 AM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/09/video-its-not-sukkos-its-a-covid-wedding-in-lakewood.html
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 10, 2020, 10:37:39 AM
Thatís because NY did the numbers trick. A nursing home patient who was wheeled out with a pulse is not counted as a nursing home death. In NJ and PA which had the same mandate over 43% and 67% of deaths were from nursing homes. NY likely falls somewhere in between.
Another thing to keep in mind, the mandate was responsible for many elderly people contacting covid which directly led to the overcrowding in the hospitals.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 10, 2020, 10:38:43 AM
None of this is relevant to the facts o nthe ground today, other than to say we might have more leeway before reaching a "doomsday" scenario.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 10:45:16 AM
None of this is relevant to the facts o nthe ground today, other than to say we might have more leeway before reaching a "doomsday" scenario.
Which facts are those? Same ones being reported here that you said to ignore?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 10, 2020, 10:51:51 AM
Which facts are those? Same ones being reported here that you said to ignore?
The facts on the ground appear to be that dozens if not hundreds of people are getting sick just in the last few weeks alone, and there are communal efforts to not test and contact trace so as to not cause another "shutdown". All of this just as the school year is starting and shuls will become packed for RH/YK, followed by many people coming and going for Sukkos, with minimal social distancing and mask wearing.

Where am I wrong? My point is that what Cuomo did or didn't do wrong in April doesn't affect any of this.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 10:56:58 AM
The facts on the ground appear to be that dozens if not hundreds of people are getting sick just in the last few weeks alone, and there are communal efforts to not test and contact trace so as to not cause another "shutdown". All of this just as the school year is starting and shuls will become packed for RH/YK, followed by many people coming and going for Sukkos, with minimal social distancing and mask wearing.

Where am I wrong? My point is that what Cuomo did or didn't do wrong in April doesn't affect any of this.
Why do you think any of that is true? Did you see legitimate source for hundreds of new cases or telling people not to test?.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yelped on September 10, 2020, 10:58:32 AM
Why do you think any of that is true? Did you see legitimate source for hundreds of new cases or telling people not to test?.
Who are you fooling?
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 10, 2020, 10:59:22 AM
Why do you think any of that is true? Did you see legitimate source for hundreds of new cases or telling people not to test?.
"Facts on the ground" are only reliable when fitting a certain narrative?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 11:02:36 AM
"Facts on the ground" are only reliable when fitting a certain narrative?
When facts on the ground said nobody was getting it the response was, who cares about facts on the ground, their irrelevant and keep following whoever. It can't be the same guys now saying but facts on the ground....
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 10, 2020, 11:13:21 AM
https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/09/thursday-september-10-news-updates.html
Quote
Letter by Harav Eliyohu Levin shlita and other Rabbonim and Talmidei Chachomim stress the importance and  duty of care for health and safety  and should not be underestimated, but that the effort must be to find precautions that will not interfere with the Torah. It is impossible to lower the level of Torah study which is a ikur A definite, Ki Heim Chayeinu over chashash.

@Yard sale maybe this is the letter? My impression was that it would be from the BMG poskim...
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 10, 2020, 11:16:40 AM
When facts on the ground said nobody was getting it the response was, who cares about facts on the ground, their irrelevant and keep following whoever. It can't be the same guys now saying but facts on the ground....
Nobody was accusing the virus of spreading when it wasn't. They (we) were saying that without proper precautions, there would be nothing to stop it from returning.

It would appear that recent events would confirm that theory.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Dawie on September 10, 2020, 11:20:17 AM
It's actually flawless logic. 20 people that work in highly trafficked bank, that wore masks, didn't get it. In the surrounding non-mask wearing community there was at least a 50% infection rate.

Dr. Kassover from Chemed told my mother, that none of the Chemed workers were infected, even though it probably had the most corona spreading people in the whole Lakewood. My parents both wear masks after that conversation.
highly trafficked bank? they didn;t let people in for months

Chemed? i think Dr Hirsch and Dr Kawelblum would beg differ on that point
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 10, 2020, 11:51:38 AM
Letter by Harav Eliyohu Levin shlita and other Rabbonim and Talmidei Chachomim stress the importance and duty of care for health and safety and should not be underestimated, but that the effort must be to find precautions that will not interfere with the Torah. It is impossible to lower the level of Torah study which is a ikur a definite, Ki Heim Chayeinu over chashash.

Finally we have a clear and unambiguous statement to hang all hats on...And it is also from "other Rabbonim and Talmidei Chachamim"!
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 12:51:08 PM
Some wrong calls? You realize that 25% of the deaths in the us were in ny/nj? And of those over 30% were in nursing homes. Ny/nj have far more deaths then most countries. Some wrong calls? Sometimes I see things here and I need to read it twice because there's no way someone could actually say that.
How many of the deaths in Lakewood and Brooklyn were from nursing homes? What percentage of deaths in other states like Florida were from nursing homes?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 10, 2020, 01:48:15 PM
Finally we have a clear and unambiguous statement to hang all hats on...And it is also from "other Rabbonim and Talmidei Chachamim"!
Now we just need the ďnoted mechanchosĒ to be on board.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 10, 2020, 02:42:46 PM


Chemed? i think Dr Hirsch and Dr Kawelblum would beg differ on that point
I'm referring to when they started wearing masks and later.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 10, 2020, 02:44:18 PM

Of people that work at banks? You can't be serious.
I'm referring to the community that traffics the bank.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 03:06:01 PM
I'm referring to the community that traffics the bank.
Pretty sure all experts agree that in order for covid to spread there has been prolonged exposure of atleast 15 minutes. How does that happen at a bank? And because people in the neighborhood have covid therefore they went to the bank with it and tellers should get it? I really don't understand you.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 03:08:08 PM
Look at the numbers! How can you be in denial?! LOOK AT THE NUMBERS!!!

A few days later...

The numbers are FAKE! There is a cover up! DONT LOOK AT THE NUMBERS!!!
ďThere will never be another outbreak! Itís been low for a while, and past performance is a guarantee of future results!

*reported numbers rise dramatically*

ďThereís no community spread, and there are false positive!Ē

*memo goes out to please refrain from testing. Reported numbers drop, even as anecdotal evidence shoots up*

ďSee? Numbers dropped!Ē
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 10, 2020, 03:09:36 PM
Pretty sure all experts agree that in order for covid to spread there has been prolonged exposure of atleast 15 minutes.

Where have you seen such a thing? I have not seen even one real source for that.

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 03:14:47 PM
Where have you seen such a thing? I have not seen even one real source for that.
Literally everywhere.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/public-health-recommendations.html
Individual who has had close contact (< 6 feet)** for ≥15 minutes***


https://www.mdanderson.org/cancerwise/what-counts-as-coronavirus-covid-19-exposure--how-does-contact-tracing-identify-who-has-been-exposed-to-covid-19.h00-159383523.html
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 10, 2020, 03:21:19 PM
Literally everywhere.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/public-health-recommendations.html
Individual who has had close contact (< 6 feet)** for ≥15 minutes***


https://www.mdanderson.org/cancerwise/what-counts-as-coronavirus-covid-19-exposure--how-does-contact-tracing-identify-who-has-been-exposed-to-covid-19.h00-159383523.html
It does not say there that it needs 15 minutes to spread.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 10, 2020, 03:31:36 PM
I'm referring to when they started wearing masks and later.
You mean after all the susceptible people already got it?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 10, 2020, 03:32:58 PM
28* new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 03:33:41 PM
Literally everywhere.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/public-health-recommendations.html
Individual who has had close contact (< 6 feet)** for ≥15 minutes***


https://www.mdanderson.org/cancerwise/what-counts-as-coronavirus-covid-19-exposure--how-does-contact-tracing-identify-who-has-been-exposed-to-covid-19.h00-159383523.html
People who fulfill these criteria have an extremely elevated chance of having or developing COVID, so they need to be quarantined and monitored. This is a useful way to direct the limited resources available to trace and minimize contacts, and is a practical way to define who should and shouldnít be quarantining. Otherwise, we get back to March, where everybody in a certain area has an extremely elevated chance of being a carrier and therefore must quarantine. This does not mean that either

A) If this occurred, they must become infected
or B) If this didnít happen, you canít get infected
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 03:34:05 PM
28* new cases via OCHD.
FAKE NEWS!
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 10, 2020, 03:38:03 PM
People who fulfill these criteria have an extremely elevated chance of having or developing COVID, so they need to be quarantined and monitored. This is a useful way to direct the limited resources available to trace and minimize contacts, and is a practical way to define who should and shouldnít be quarantining. Otherwise, we get back to March, where everybody in a certain area has an extremely elevated chance of being a carrier and therefore must quarantine. This does not mean that either

A) If this occurred, they must become infected
or B) If this didnít happen, you canít get infected
But it does say that the fact that no one got it is meaningless.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 03:40:48 PM
But it does say that the fact that no one got it is meaningless.
I agree that the fact that nobody at a bank that mandated masks contracted COVID is far from sufficient evidence that masks work. Itís barely even anecdotal evidence.

I think the many and various uncontested and peer reviewed studies are, though.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 10, 2020, 03:44:59 PM
I agree that the fact that nobody at a bank who wore masks contracted COVID is far from sufficient evidence that masks work. Itís barely even anecdotal evidence.
Yet you were standing behind that "evidence" because what @yaakov35 said wasn't 100% accurate, when the inaccuracy doesn't really make a difference to the discussion.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 03:51:59 PM
Yet you were standing behind that "evidence" because what @yaakov35 said wasn't 100% accurate, when the inaccuracy doesn't really make a difference to the discussion.
I didnít stand behind anything, I didnít participate in that discussion.

The inaccuracy @yaakov35 posted is part of a long trend of misinformation which causes confusion and obfuscates. This also contributes to people neglecting to absorb and adhere to information that is factual because they are led to believe that nothing is true or established, when that is false.

The post @Baruch made contained all the information upon which he based his claim, and anyone with eyes and a brain could see that thatís hardly sufficient evidence to reach a conclusion, and in any case, any conclusion that could possibly be reached was harmless and perhaps helpful.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 10, 2020, 03:57:42 PM
28* new cases via OCHD.
Brings Lakewood over 3000 cases, "officially".
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 03:59:08 PM
Brings Lakewood over 3000 cases, "officially".
LOL
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 10, 2020, 04:03:36 PM
I agree that the fact that nobody at a bank that mandated masks contracted COVID is far from sufficient evidence that masks work. Itís barely even anecdotal evidence.

I think the many and various uncontested and peer reviewed studies are, though.
100% agree. The studies are around for a long time, and ii still hasn't convinced many people. I figured anecdotal evidence that people can relate to may convince.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 04:28:29 PM
I didnít stand behind anything, I didnít participate in that discussion.

The inaccuracy @yaakov35 posted is part of a long trend of misinformation which causes confusion and obfuscates. This also contributes to people neglecting to absorb and adhere to information that is factual because they are led to believe that nothing is true or established, when that is false.

The post @Baruch made contained all the information upon which he based his claim, and anyone with eyes and a brain could see that thatís hardly sufficient evidence to reach a conclusion, and in any case, any conclusion that could possibly be reached was harmless and perhaps helpful.
What was inaccurate about my post? That his example can't even be used as proof that a bank exists? That's literally how little correlation it proved.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 10, 2020, 04:33:44 PM
What was inaccurate about my post? That his example can't even be used as proof that a bank exists? That's literally how little correlation it proved.
I was nitpicking on the inaccuracy of needing 15 minutes to catch it, but the relevancy to the anecdote from the bank remains true.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 10, 2020, 04:42:12 PM
I was nitpicking on the inaccuracy of needing 15 minutes to catch it, but the relevancy to the anecdote from the bank remains true.
Well ya I don't think it needs 15 minutes exactly, but if there's no significant exposure your making a very hard case that people would get infected even if people with covid were there.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 10, 2020, 04:49:20 PM
I didnít stand behind anything, I didnít participate in that discussion.

The inaccuracy @yaakov35 posted is part of a long trend of misinformation which causes confusion and obfuscates. This also contributes to people neglecting to absorb and adhere to information that is factual because they are led to believe that nothing is true or established, when that is false.

The post @Baruch made contained all the information upon which he based his claim, and anyone with eyes and a brain could see that thatís hardly sufficient evidence to reach a conclusion, and in any case, any conclusion that could possibly be reached was harmless and perhaps helpful.
100% agree. The studies are around for a long time, and ii still hasn't convinced many people. I figured anecdotal evidence that people can relate to may convince.
I find this to be a huge issue among "mask pushers", they assume that by overstating the effectiveness and/or the need for masks it will convince more people to wear masks. In reality everyone sees right through the deception and it just undermines your arguement. There are many examples here on the forums as well as other places a few examples are

All it does is make people look and say these people are crazy.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 04:54:30 PM
I find this to be a huge issue among "mask pushers", they assume that by overstating the effectiveness and/or the need for masks it will convince more people to wear masks. In reality everyone sees right through the deception and it just undermines your arguement. There are many examples here on the forums as well as other places a few examples are
  • People who wear masks while driving down the highway
  • People who wear masks while walking down wide empty roads
  • I believe it was in WA, there was a state agency who put out a memo requiring their employees to wear masks on zoom conferences with people from outside the agency.

All it does is make people look and say these people are crazy.
After 6 months to find one you have yet to quote a single study or doctor disagreeing, yet still pretend there are two sides. The silence is deafening.

Iíll say it again, and itís easy to show that Iím wrong- itís very easy to disprove an argument claiming an absolute negative with even very slight evidence:

There is NOBODY in the medical world who disagrees. Nobody.

Itís idiotic to claim that because a few people wear masks in situations you disagree with, everybody who believes in mask wearing (around 7 billion people, give or take) is crazy.

I hope you donít claim that actions of a few in every group speak for the whole.. or else all cops must be racist murderers.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 10, 2020, 04:58:08 PM
Well ya I don't think it needs 15 minutes exactly, but if there's no significant exposure your making a very hard case that people would get infected even if people with covid were there.
It is definitely less likely the less the exposure is, but that does not mean that "in order for it to spread it needs 15 minutes" but that it is lower on the scale of likelihood. This distinction is a very important one.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 10, 2020, 05:02:03 PM
I'll sometimes keep my mask on for a short drive between 2 stores just so I don't have to take it off/put it back.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 10, 2020, 05:29:15 PM
Spoke to a doctor who has a large percent of geriatric patients. He says that many many of his patients tell him they just want to die. They have nothing to live for since covid and they donít believe there will be a solution in their lifetime. So sad and tragic.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 10, 2020, 05:51:18 PM
After 6 months to find one you have yet to quote a single study or doctor disagreeing, yet still pretend there are two sides. The silence is deafening.

Iíll say it again, and itís easy to show that Iím wrong- itís very easy to disprove an argument claiming an absolute negative with even very slight evidence:

There is NOBODY in the medical world who disagrees. Nobody.

Itís idiotic to claim that because a few people wear masks in situations you disagree with, everybody who believes in mask wearing (around 7 billion people, give or take) is crazy.

I hope you donít claim that actions of a few in every group speak for the whole.. or else all cops must be racist murderers.
You can scream on top of your lungs and you can be 100% correct, it doesn't change the way people look at it. It's not just a few people, it's the most vocal people and the people who should be leading the way with sanity not the insanity of wearing a mask when you pose no risk to others.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 10, 2020, 06:01:15 PM
You can scream on top of your lungs and you can be 100% correct, it doesn't change the way people look at it. It's not just a few people, it's the most vocal people and the people who should be leading the way with sanity not the insanity of wearing a mask when you pose no risk to others.

What's your point? You're not disagreeing that it is the correct thing to do. You keep on pointing to other people going to absolutes or extremes as excuses for why people are being stupid and ignoring the facts. "I'm emotionally triggered by their stupidity, so I'm going to act like an idiot and put myself and the people around me in danger to counteract their stupidity. That'll show them!" I don't think you're an idiot, and I know you don't think you're an idiot, so why do you insist on parroting the stupidity of idiots?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 10, 2020, 07:11:08 PM

(https://i.postimg.cc/qBL67Ctj/AE0-F6-BC8-9-E02-43-F6-B7-FD-23-F0-BDB5-C1-F0.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/F1YHWzVL)

Basically wear masks even if you donít need to because that is the only way those who need to will
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 07:40:40 PM
What's your point? You're not disagreeing that it is the correct thing to do. You keep on pointing to other people going to absolutes or extremes as excuses for why people are being stupid and ignoring the facts. "I'm emotionally triggered by their stupidity, so I'm going to act like an idiot and put myself and the people around me in danger to counteract their stupidity. That'll show them!" I don't think you're an idiot, and I know you don't think you're an idiot, so why do you insist on parroting the stupidity of idiots?
Unfortunately, after many conversations with people on the ground, he is 100% right. The vast majority of people in Lakewood think thereís no proof either way, and prefer to not wear a mask with the logic that who says they work anyway, sfek sfek sfaika.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 10, 2020, 08:19:41 PM
Unfortunately, after many conversations with people on the ground, he is 100% right. The vast majority of people in Lakewood think thereís no proof either way, and prefer to not wear a mask with the logic that who says they work anyway, sfek sfek sfaika.

I know he's right that the majority of the people in many frum communities of NY/NJ have arbitrarily decided to ignore the science. The point is, we, here on these forums, have had this argument extensively, and no one has yet to bring any scientific proof to substantiate those beliefs. So why continue to be intellectually dishonest by parroting them and excuse them over and over?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: KSMH on September 10, 2020, 09:17:33 PM
I know he's right that the majority of the people in many frum communities of NY/NJ have arbitrarily decided to ignore the science. The point is, we, here on these forums, have had this argument extensively, and no one has yet to bring any scientific proof to substantiate those beliefs. So why continue to be intellectually dishonest by parroting them and excuse them over and over?
What science?

There is "science" for both sides of arguments, individual people decide on their own, which side of science to listen to.

Its like listening to Governor's lecturing its people to listen to the "science" while either flouting their own rules or putting policy in place based on political considerations.

Not seeing scientist loudly advocating one way or another means nothing in times of C culture, look enough and their all there.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 10, 2020, 09:22:46 PM
What science?

There is "science" for both sides of arguments, individual people decide on their own, which side of science to listen to.

Its like listening to Governor's lecturing its people to listen to the "science" while either flouting their own rules or putting policy in place based on political considerations.

Not seeing scientist loudly advocating one way or another means nothing in times of C culture, look enough and their all there.

On cue, bring in a politician.

This is not a machlokes rishonim. There is no debate amongst the experts. Show me the science, any science, that justifies not wearing a mask. Show me the science that justifies the weddings that are going on right now. I've looked, I can't find it. And it's not because they are afraid of cancel culture.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 10:05:25 PM
There is "science" for both sides of arguments, individual people decide on their own, which side of science to listen to.
Please post one scientific or medical source that claims masks are completely ineffective in reducing the spread of COVID-19 from an infected individual.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 10, 2020, 10:22:20 PM
Please post one scientific or medical source that claims masks are completely ineffective in reducing the spread of COVID-19 from an infected individual.

I don't understand how that's relevant.

Please post one substantiated scientific study that shows that masks actually increase the virus.

people were asked to do a small part to prevent the virus spread so that people don't die like flies.

No, I can't be arsed!! Don't bother me!!

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: KSMH on September 10, 2020, 10:26:06 PM
On cue, bring in a politician.

This is not a machlokes rishonim. There is no debate amongst the experts. Show me the science, any science, that justifies not wearing a mask. Show me the science that justifies the weddings that are going on right now. I've looked, I can't find it. And it's not because they are afraid of cancel culture.

I'm not justifying what people are doing or not doing, we live in a free country. If you don't like something avoid it!
I am saying; "science" has itself on both sides.

Without misrepresenting what I said, ill repeat, scientists and DR's (and Rabbis's) are generally afraid to against the "mainstream narrative" FACT.

Please post one scientific or medical source that claims masks are completely ineffective in reducing the spread of COVID-19 from an infected individual.

GIYF
I didn't do much search but a quick search brings up unlimited results.
https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy
https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/evidence-review-for-the-use-of-facemasks-by-the-public-may6-2020.pdf
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1342  - "Then This article has been retracted. See Notice of Retraction."
https://fee.org/articles/new-study-casts-more-doubt-on-effectiveness-of-masks-in-preventing-covid-19-spread/
There is so much more.

Some countries are not mandating masks because of the uncertain "science".


Im sure their are many that believe if can be counterproductive in MANY circumstances and its just used as comforting method.


Memory lane doesn't have to be short
First we have studies showing hydroxyquine doesn't help and then those studies are proven to be filled with errors, then studies showing it does help, science is not STRAIGHT like people want it to be, or think it is.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 10, 2020, 10:39:59 PM
Story currently circulating:

There's a parent who currently has Covid and the doctor told them that Daas Torah says that the kids should go to school.

(Not sure which doctor.)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: sillypainter on September 10, 2020, 10:44:23 PM
There is a story circulating that Euclid is a city in Ohio.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 10, 2020, 10:45:14 PM
There is a story circulating that Euclid is a city in Ohio.
My namesake.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 10, 2020, 10:57:55 PM
Itís hard to convince the average person on the street that Covid is still as deadly as March when a look at the charts seems to show startling differences.
(https://i.postimg.cc/pLsdYShg/1-A525-A7-F-7213-434-B-AC43-FCAB4-C6-D3-E0-C.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/Yvmktbx3)

(https://i.postimg.cc/Z5bRNmR8/A96196-D2-6-EDD-4-F54-AB4-E-DCBBC8231039.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/N5nBhWRF)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 11:09:54 PM
Itís hard to convince the average person on the street that Covid is still as deadly as March when a look at the charts seems to show startling differences.
(https://i.postimg.cc/pLsdYShg/1-A525-A7-F-7213-434-B-AC43-FCAB4-C6-D3-E0-C.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/Yvmktbx3)

(https://i.postimg.cc/Z5bRNmR8/A96196-D2-6-EDD-4-F54-AB4-E-DCBBC8231039.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/N5nBhWRF)
Right, so because this is the Lakewood COVID thread, do you think that Lakewood had a total of 2,000 cases of COVID?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 10, 2020, 11:19:52 PM
Right, so because this is the Lakewood COVID thread, do you think that Lakewood had a total of 2,000 cases of COVID?
Lakewooders see and are influenced by what is going on nationally.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 10, 2020, 11:40:10 PM
Right, so because this is the Lakewood COVID thread, do you think that Lakewood had a total of 2,000 cases of COVID?
3000! Don't shortchange us!
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 11:40:49 PM

https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy

This is an article (by a non medical doctor) who posits that masks are not effective in protecting people from others with a respiratory infection. He does not discuss the wearing of masks as protection from the wearer.

As an aside, he only quotes studies conducted on other diseases, not a single one specifically on COVID (despite thousands of COVID-specific studies having already been conducted). Obviously COVID (of which a large amount of the spread is pre-symptomatic) should be treated differently than the flu (of which it is not)

In an August follow up to his article, the publication tried to defend him from those who had pointed out that all seven of the studies he quoted conclude that masks do work (https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/still-no-conclusive-evidence-justifying-mandatory-masks), even as protection against other illnesses. While they admit he seemed to cherry pick data from studies that actually concluded the exact opposite of what he claimed, they maintain that there isnít enough evidence that it is in the publicís interest to mandate a broad mask wearing policy.

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/evidence-review-for-the-use-of-facemasks-by-the-public-may6-2020.pdf

This link is blocked, please do share a clickable link if this says what you claim it does. After searching that website I found 3 studies that show the efficacy of face masks, but none against.

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1342

Here is a quote from the pre-print you linked to (from April 6)
Quote
The median viral loads after coughs without a mask, with a surgical mask, and with a cotton mask were 2.56 log copies/mL, 2.42 log copies/mL, and 1.85 log copies/mL, respectively.

So basically, the study shows the wearing of a mask by an infected person does reduce transmission of COVID-19. And then it was retracted (https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/L20-0745) by the authors for detection issues upon peer-review.

https://fee.org/articles/new-study-casts-more-doubt-on-effectiveness-of-masks-in-preventing-covid-19-spread/

This is just an article that quotes the retracted study above which, again, shows that wearing a mask reduces transmission

There is so much more.

Is there? Please do share. You still have yet to show a single source that
Please post one scientific or medical source that claims masks are completely ineffective in reducing the spread of COVID-19 from an infected individual.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 10, 2020, 11:42:13 PM
Lakewooders see and are influenced by what is going on nationally.
Do you understand my point?

Nobody is denying that hospitals are light years better at treating/dealing with COVID patients than the blindsided, overwhelmed, understaffed facilities in March.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 10:10:35 AM
All of the mask advocates here are thinking that by yelling facts loud enough it will get people to comply. You need to review the ABCs of influencing people.

Another point is that until you stop ignoring or downplaying the discomfort that many apparently feel when wearing masks you are going to get tuned out.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 10:11:41 AM
All of the mask advocates here are thinking that by yelling facts loud enough it will get people to comply. You need to review the ABCs of influencing people.

Another point is that until you stop ignoring or downplaying the discomfort that many apparently feel when wearing masks you are going to get tuned out.
Public health leaders should ensure that their messaging is good so that people listen. That doesn't absolve people from not listening in the first place.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 10:15:00 AM
Public health leaders should ensure that their messaging is good so that people listen. That doesn't absolve people from not listening in the first place.
Agreed, but it is unreasonable to be expecting people to do their own research to go against "what everyone is doing". If anything what everyone is doing will override research. This is from the ABCs of persuasion.



(https://i2.wp.com/laconteconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/6-Principles-of-Persuasion.png?ssl=1)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cmey on September 11, 2020, 12:14:16 PM
https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/09/letter-lakewood-roshei-yeshivo-and.html?m=1
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 12:14:45 PM
Agreed, but it is unreasonable to be expecting people to do their own research to go against "what everyone is doing". If anything what everyone is doing will override research. This is from the ABCs of persuasion.



(https://i2.wp.com/laconteconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/6-Principles-of-Persuasion.png?ssl=1)
Youíre right, in order to convince the masses to comply the messaging is key, but in a factual debate Iíd expect some more intellectual honesty
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 11, 2020, 12:15:08 PM
https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/09/letter-lakewood-roshei-yeshivo-and.html?m=1 (https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/09/letter-lakewood-roshei-yeshivo-and.html?m=1)
@Yard sale this is the letter I heard about
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 11, 2020, 12:15:48 PM
Agreed, but it is unreasonable to be expecting people to do their own research to go against "what everyone is doing". If anything what everyone is doing will override research. This is from the ABCs of persuasion.



(https://i2.wp.com/laconteconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/6-Principles-of-Persuasion.png?ssl=1)

What's uncomfortable?! Wearing a mask for 10 min while you shop?

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 12:25:07 PM
What's uncomfortable?! Wearing a mask for 10 min while you shop?
That is gonna work fa Shaw
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 11, 2020, 12:25:39 PM
@Yard sale this is the letter I heard about

״ובעיקר בנוגע לשער ענינים וכדומה״
Does this translate as ďthe main concern is potential government interferenceĒ?
(https://i.postimg.cc/05dLBkdw/E00-B91-D7-8824-4524-9224-65-D35-F4-CA5-C7.png) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 12:27:07 PM


but in a factual debate Iíd expect some more intellectual honesty
Oh is that what this is? I didn't notice that.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 11, 2020, 12:28:12 PM
What's uncomfortable?! Wearing a mask for 10 min while you shop?
Oh come on, don't make believe you've never seen anyone demanding everyone wear masks for davening and learning (including yomim noraim).
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 11, 2020, 12:28:41 PM
״ובעיקר בנוגע לשער ענינים וכדומה״
Does this translate as ďthe main concern is potential government interferenceĒ?
(https://i.postimg.cc/05dLBkdw/E00-B91-D7-8824-4524-9224-65-D35-F4-CA5-C7.png) (https://postimages.org/)
Interesting reading, plausible though.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 11, 2020, 12:47:53 PM
Interesting reading, plausible though.
I wouldnít think to read it that way without context.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 11, 2020, 01:01:02 PM
So, all these people flying economy, all wearing masks mostly.. it works apparently or they would ban all air travel.

I just flew RT fll to lax, was fine, 5 hours with a mask.

I bet the lakewood chelmites would wear a mask if given the same fare I got (JetBlue RT fll to lax $51)

People are just baby's. They have this talmudic logic, they need to argue pointless pilpul because they can't otherwise justify their stupidity.

From a Jewish world which has a wardrobe that is entirely uncomfortable all in the name of modesty, and most people March to the tune sung by the leaders

But a mask in the name of public health, eh show me the data!! Show meeeee where does it say so in shulchan aruch!! The mechaber never once mentioned a mask!!

But if you don't wear a hat and jacket in 96 degrees, apikoresssss

I have glasses and live in frikking Miami, my glasses get fogged constantly.

Every store here requires a mask, I limit my in store visits anyways, personally if I order food, I eat in my car mostly though socially distance outdoor dining exists.

For the most part, the discussion isn't about wearing a mask when you walk in the street, it's about doing so indoors in a larger setting

It's also about doing most things outdoors so you can sd and not wear a mask
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 01:02:00 PM
Oh come on, don't make believe you've never seen anyone demanding everyone wear masks for davening and learning (including yomim noraim).
I'm going to wear a mask on Yamin noraim as is my entire minyan. It's not so complicated.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 11, 2020, 01:06:03 PM
I'm going to wear a mask on Yamin noraim as is my entire minyan. It's not so complicated.

Same here, though there's an outdoor minyan I'm not sure if they require masks.

It's davening, the only reason someone doesn't want to wear a mask in shul is if it gets in the way of their talking to a friend, praying never is uncomfortable wearing a mask
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 01:07:42 PM
Same here, though there's an outdoor minyan I'm not sure if they require masks.

It's davening, the only reason someone doesn't want to wear a mask in shul is if it gets in the way of their talking to a friend, praying never is uncomfortable wearing a mask
Both indoor and outdoor require. Outdoor the Shat"z is allowed to remove mask occasionally if needed (I'm davening mussaf 2nd day). The shul is also requesting Baalei tefilah to get tested week of, so it's a bit less of a concern anyway.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 01:08:03 PM
I'm going to wear a mask on Yamin noraim as is my entire minyan. It's not so complicated.
Same here, though there's an outdoor minyan I'm not sure if they require masks.

It's davening, the only reason someone doesn't want to wear a mask in shul is if it gets in the way of their talking to a friend, praying never is uncomfortable wearing a mask
A couple more times saying the same thing will magically have everyone convinced.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 11, 2020, 01:09:25 PM
https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/09/letter-lakewood-roshei-yeshivo-and.html?m=1

Okay, so some take-aways from the Roshei Hayeshiva of BMG, which certainly qualifies as a valid daas torah:

1. Recent uptick has only included mild cases

2. Before attending gatherings, consider if you really need to be there

3. If you have tested positive for, been exposed to someone with or experiencing the symptoms of COVID, stay home

4. Reinfection is not a practical problem and therefore a positive antibody test is sufficient to negate all precautions

Note: zero reference to wearing a mask as required or recommended (only handwashing is listed as general precaution). Bein adam lechaveiro requires adhering to #2&3 above, not mask wearing.

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 01:14:02 PM
Okay, so some take-aways from the Roshei Hayeshiva of BMG, which certainly qualifies as a valid daas torah:

1. Recent uptick has only included mild cases

2. Before attending gatherings, consider if you really need to be there

3. If you have tested positive for, been exposed to someone with or experiencing the symptoms of COVID, stay home

4. Reinfection is not a practical problem and therefore a positive antibody test is sufficient to negate all precautions

Note: zero reference to wearing a mask as required or recommended (only handwashing is listed as general precaution). Bein adam lechaveiro requires adhering to #2&3 above, not mask wearing.
The  logic behind masks is based on what?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 01:14:51 PM
Okay, so some take-aways from the Roshei Hayeshiva of BMG, which certainly qualifies as a valid daas torah:

1. Recent uptick has only included mild cases

2. Before attending gatherings, consider if you really need to be there

3. If you have tested positive for, been exposed to someone with or experiencing the symptoms of COVID, stay home

4. Reinfection is not a practical problem and therefore a positive antibody test is sufficient to negate all precautions

Note: zero reference to wearing a mask as required or recommended (only handwashing is listed as general precaution). Bein adam lechaveiro requires adhering to #2&3 above, not mask wearing.
It doesnít surprise anybody here that they donít feel mask wearing should be required
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 11, 2020, 01:14:55 PM
A couple more times saying the same thing will magically have everyone convinced.

No, we tried logic, it didn't work. We said it will take some korbanos, everyone forgot about the shortage of taleisim.

Nothing's gonna work anymore, I hope I'm wrong but otherwise, good luck. .

This will God forbid create the biggest judaic crisis of the 21st century if there's another outbreak.

When your kids ask about the 2020 coronavirus and want to know why no one wore a mask and why all the bubby's and zaidys died, what will you say ?

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 11, 2020, 01:15:09 PM
I'm going to wear a mask on Yamin noraim as is my entire minyan. It's not so complicated.
Same here, though there's an outdoor minyan I'm not sure if they require masks.

It's davening, the only reason someone doesn't want to wear a mask in shul is if it gets in the way of their talking to a friend, praying never is uncomfortable wearing a mask
This is why there can never be an honest discussion. @chevron asked what's so hard about wearing a mask for 10 minutes in a store as if that was the only time anyone demands mask wearing. I called him out on it but you both chose to attack me instead.

The mask nuts demanding masks for the entire yamim noraim davening as if it's a 10 minute trip to the grocery are the only ones demanding masks in stores.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 01:15:57 PM
The  logic behind masks is based on what?
Probably some of it is that they think the letter will be totally disregarded if they mandate it.

Also, itís an imposition that they might not think is necessary.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 11, 2020, 01:17:22 PM
Probably some of it is that they think the letter will be totally disregarded if they mandate it.

Also, itís an imposition that they might not think is necessary.
The mask crazies response is:
What's uncomfortable?! Wearing a mask for 10 min while you shop?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: NTorch on September 11, 2020, 01:17:46 PM
Quote
The mask nuts demanding masks for the entire yamim noraim davening are the only ones demanding masks in stores.

Other than the states of New York and New Jersey which demand it?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 11, 2020, 01:18:57 PM
Probably some of it is that they think the letter will be totally disregarded if they mandate it.

Also, itís an imposition that they might not think is necessary.
Probably the second, but even if they thought it was necessary they would omit it for the first reason. The perfect is the enemy of the good.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 01:19:41 PM
Other than the states of New York and New Jersey which demand it?
I would remind you Lakewood is in NJ.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 11, 2020, 01:19:44 PM
This is why there can never be an honest discussion. @chevron asked what's so hard about wearing a mask for 10 minutes in a store as if that was the only time anyone demands mask wearing. I called him out on it but you both chose to attack me instead.

The mask nuts demanding masks for the entire yamim noraim davening as if it's a 10 minute trip to the grocery are the only ones demanding masks in stores.

Yes, you pray in the same spot, you don't jump up and down, you don't go in and out of the shul etc..

Praying with a mask for 5 hours isn't a big deal

I just had a 2 hour MRI with a mask on and it wasn't the end of the world.

Wearing tights in a heat wave looks uncomfortable, I think rabbi's should drop that requirement
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 11, 2020, 01:20:04 PM
Other than the states of New York and New Jersey which demand it?
I'm talking about on DDF
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 11, 2020, 01:21:01 PM
Yes, you pray in the same spot, you don't jump up and down, you don't go in and out of the shul etc..

Praying with a mask for 5 hours isn't a big deal

I just had a 2 hour MRI with a mask on and it wasn't the end of the world.

Wearing tights in a heat wave looks uncomfortable, I think rabbi's should drop that requirement
Look how fast it went from 10 minutes in the grocery to 5 hours straight in shul...
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 01:22:07 PM
No, we tried logic, it didn't work. We said it will take some korbanos, everyone forgot about the shortage of taleisim.

Nothing's gonna work anymore, I hope I'm wrong but otherwise, good luck. .

This will God forbid create the biggest judaic crisis of the 21st century if there's another outbreak.

When your kids ask about the 2020 coronavirus and want to know why no one wore a mask and why all the bubby's and zaidys died, what will you say ?



And every single time it was accompanied by an implication that the person who foinds it to be an imposition is crazy. Everyone gets that YOU don't consider it to be a major imposition. Do you get that OTHERS do?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 11, 2020, 01:27:21 PM
And every single time it was accompanied by an implication that the person who foinds it to be an imposition is crazy.

That's not true. I think I've been pretty clear that I understand the discomfort and imposition. I just don't understand why that trumps safety.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 01:28:32 PM
Are masks worse than wearing hats and jackets in the summer or for women to wear wigs and long sleeves?

As a community*, we wear them because we value a certain code/Halachos of dress.

Any attempt to say masks are uncomfortable and unenforceable speaks to not valuing them, more than anything else.

*Obviously not everyone follows this specific dress code, but you get my point.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 01:30:08 PM
That's not true. I think I've been pretty clear that I understand the discomfort and imposition. I just don't understand why that trumps safety.
Yes you have been the exception not the rule.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 01:31:29 PM
Yes you have been the exception not the rule.
Of course they are uncomfortable, but it's not nearly as big a deal as it's being made out to be. I couldn't wear a kn95 because I coulsnt breathe in it, so I wear either a cloth mask or a surgical mask. It's not great, but it's really not the biggest deal in the world.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: NTorch on September 11, 2020, 01:37:33 PM
Of course they are uncomfortable, but it's not nearly as big a deal as it's being made out to be. I couldn't wear a kn95 because I coulsnt breathe in it, so I wear either a cloth mask or a surgical mask. It's not great, but it's really not the biggest deal in the world.

Agree 100% - I lain Shabbos morning every two or three weeks and give a regular daf shiur as well. I experimented with surgical masks, cloth masks (get far too hot and can't breathe by shlishi) and the KN95 which I found to be the most comfortable. My AC is a Morah in a BY and she got a mask guard which sits under a surgical mask and keeps it away from sitting directly on the mouth, but the mask is still sealed completely to the face.

Yes its a nuisance, but we have been making it work for shul since late May when we were allowed to go back in.
Title: Re: Lakewood cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 01:41:18 PM
Yes you have been the exception not the rule.
I do have a different opinion than you, as I think masks arenít too uncomfortable. Perhaps because I was wearing a mask around 3 weeks earlier than everyone else, and exclusively N95s, I adapted to them better. They were certainly uncomfortable early on but I adjusted and the looks I got were more uncomfortable ;). It also wasnít political back then.

While I hear many grumbles I do think if one were to wear a mask for a week or two straight for many hours at a time they would get used to them to the point that they wouldnít feel them, like glasses. I point to health care workers and workers in WalMart and other stores around town who wear them all day every day as proof that anyone can get used to it. I have a niggling feeling many complaining never gave it a fair shot, and probably had a prior opinion on masks before they through it through. Look no further than asking people how uncomfortable they feel wearing a mask is- I think more Republicans than Democrats would answer ďvery uncomfortableĒ. Then again, it works both ways. Daniel Kahneman has a name for this heuristic, where people who advocate abortion are generally opposed to capital punishment because they are categorized.

That said, Iíll give you that it may be more uncomfortable for some than others even after giving it a shot. I canít comment on othersí comfort levels. Still, even if we canít mandate masks everywhere, at least in stores and other places where itís for a shorter time I think we should be strict. I hear your point about school and weddings, though weddings are a real problem.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 11, 2020, 02:12:37 PM
With apologies to @Euclid for continuing the mask discussion here...

1) We all know people who take Judaism to an extreme. I'm not referring to hiddurim, I'm talking about making shtark look OTD. You know those guys that even the Rov or Rosh Yeshiva tells them to take a breath and dial it down a bit? No one ever points to those guys and says I'm dropping Judaism because they're too extreme. So let's stop pointing to grandma alone in a car with a mask as if that's a valid excuse.

2) Others have made the point that as religious Jews, discomfort in dress is second nature to us. It doesn't stop us from doing what we believe is right or necessary.

3) Medically, there is no argument not to wear the mask. Maybe on a case by case basis, but most certainly not on a mass scale.

What this all boils down to is there is no reason not to wear a mask other than personal hergesh. If someone is not inclined to care, regardless of what excuses they may come up with and how many times you disprove them, no argument will change their mind. You can't help someone who doesn't want help.

With all that in mind, bli neder I'll be stepping away from the mask conversations, unless someone has a legitimate question or study that warrants discussion on the mask thread. K'siva Va'Chasima Tova!
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 11, 2020, 02:23:00 PM
Back to the more realistic topics, I wonder how many people will take this letter and its emphasis on antibodies and mild sickness, and seek out someone who has covid so that they can purposely get infected.

The emphasis is on reducing as much spiritual and physical upheaval as possible - they say everyone should get themselves tested.....for antibodies. (The obvious implication, as @Yard sale mentioned, is to avoid other types of testing.)

@ExGingi would be happy about the tone of this letter.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 11, 2020, 02:35:34 PM
Are masks worse than wearing hats and jackets in the summer or for women to wear wigs and long sleeves?
Yes
Yes you have been the exception not the rule.
+1000

You've been pretty wishy washy about your acknowledgement of other peoples discomfort.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 11, 2020, 02:36:43 PM
With apologies to @Euclid for continuing the mask discussion here...

1) We all know people who take Judaism to an extreme. I'm not referring to hiddurim, I'm talking about making shtark look OTD. You know those guys that even the Rov or Rosh Yeshiva tells them to take a breath and dial it down a bit? No one ever points to those guys and says I'm dropping Judaism because they're too extreme. So let's stop pointing to grandma alone in a car with a mask as if that's a valid excuse.
When that's the guy demanding masks, everyone ignores him.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: etech0 on September 11, 2020, 02:44:14 PM
Are masks worse than wearing hats and jackets in the summer or for women to wear wigs and long sleeves?
Yes
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 02:56:02 PM
Yes
Yes
Are you seriously saying you understand how daunting it is for a woman becoming frum(mer) to commit to cover her hair completely, forever, at all times? And are convinced that thatís easier than committing temporarily to wear masks in some situations?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 02:57:37 PM
When that's the only guy demanding masks, everyone ignores him.
FTFY

Right, but it isnít.. the whole world is wearing them. Youíre just pointing out an extreme outlier and magnifying it as if theyíre the only ones who wear masks, which is untrue and a straw man.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: etech0 on September 11, 2020, 03:01:38 PM
Are you seriously saying you understand how daunting it is for a woman becoming frum(mer) to commit to cover her hair completely, forever, at all times? And are convinced that thatís easier than committing temporarily to wear masks in some situations?
The original question did not mention becoming frummer.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: EliJelly on September 11, 2020, 03:04:28 PM
The original question did not mention becoming frummer.
While trying to get maskless people to wear masks..
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:05:18 PM
The original question did not mention becoming frummer.
Then you are being disingenuous, because youíre saying itís easier to do that only because youíve been brought up to do so your whole life that way vs. something thatís new and not widely done your whole life.

An appropriate comparison to the question of (dis)comfort of a mask would be someone newly committing to cover their hair.
While trying to get maskless people to wear masks..
+1 If youíre saying what I think you are
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 11, 2020, 03:06:15 PM
Guys, seriously. This debate is over. This letter is the final nail, and no matter how much we disagree, Lakewood isn't going to be wearing masks for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: etech0 on September 11, 2020, 03:06:53 PM
The average woman does not cover her hair for the first 20+ years of her life
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 11, 2020, 03:07:37 PM
FTFY

Right, but it isnít.. the whole world is wearing them. Youíre just pointing out an extreme outlier and magnifying it as if theyíre the only ones who wear masks, which is untrue and a straw man.
They're the only ones demanding it.
Then you are being disingenuous, because youíre saying itís easier to do that only because youíve been brought up to do so your whole life that way vs. something thatís new and not widely done your whole life.

An appropriate comparison to the question of (dis)comfort of a mask would be someone newly committing to cover their hair.
Answering the question is not disingenuous, claiming the original question is different than what was asked is disingenuous.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:08:06 PM
The average woman did not cover her hair for the first 20+ years of her life
But has been indoctrinated for 20 years that itís a must, and it makes you look prettier, and that everybody does it. If thatís not a factor than how would it matter to the original question if they are becoming newly frum or not?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:09:13 PM
They're the only ones demanding it.

No, theyíre really not. I donít wear a mask in my car alone. Nor do most people who would like greater compliance generally.

Answering the question is not disingenuous, claiming the original question is different than what was asked is disingenuous.
No, you answered a different question than what was asked. If your answer was true *only under specific circumstances* then it did not answer the original question honestly..
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: EliJelly on September 11, 2020, 03:10:20 PM
Then you are being disingenuous, because youíre saying itís easier to do that only because youíve been brought up to do so your whole life that way vs. something thatís new and not widely done your whole life.

An appropriate comparison to the question of (dis)comfort of a mask would be someone newly committing to cover their hair.+1 If youíre saying what I think you are
Exactly, but that's the fallacy of his comparison. No-one ever underestimated the hardship of one becoming more frum, while many still underestimate the hardship of wearing masks.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 03:12:26 PM
Then you are being disingenuous, because youíre saying itís easier to do that only because youíve been brought up to do so your whole life that way vs. something thatís new and not widely done your whole life.

An appropriate comparison to the question of (dis)comfort of a mask would be someone newly committing to cover their hair.+1 If youíre saying what I think you are

There are a lot more people who began wearing masks in recent months that there are who began covering their hair and the like in years. You are making my point for me.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:13:34 PM
Exactly, but this works against his comparison. No-one ever underestimated the hardship of one becoming more frum, while many still underestimate the hardship of wearing masks.
However, based on their answers, it seemed as though they were underestimating the hardship of the general act of covering your hair relative to the hardship of the general act of wearing a mask. Unless of course they meant the answer to only apply in specific circumstances, which is disingenuous.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:14:02 PM
There are a lot more people who began wearing masks in recent months that there are who began covering their hair and the like in years. You are making my point for me.
Iím not understanding, how does that show us how difficult it is? Wouldnít that contraindicate what youíre saying?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 11, 2020, 03:14:43 PM
No, theyíre really not. I donít wear a mask in my car alone. Nor do most people who would like greater compliance generally.
Just because you don't check every possible box doesn't mean you're not a mask crazy. You're ready to kill an infant for the sake of everyone wearing masks, that's pretty extreme in my book.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
Iím not understanding, how does that show us how difficult it is? Wouldnít that contraindicate what youíre saying?

I don't think you are understanding what I am saying. You basically made your argument into "S/he made this tremendous sacrifice to become more frum so now you can at least wear a mask". Not a very convincing argument.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:16:53 PM
Let me tell you something. I just posed this question to someone who started covering their hair 2 years ago. She lives in a smaller Jewish community and wears a mask quite often. She obviously covers her hair more often than that, though.

When I asked her this question, she laughed as hard as Iíve heard in a long time..
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 11, 2020, 03:17:50 PM
However, based on their answers, it seemed as though they were underestimating the hardship of the general act of covering your hair relative to the hardship of the general act of wearing a mask. Unless of course they meant the answer to only apply in specific circumstances, which is disingenuous.
To assume the question only applies to a minority in a specific circumstance and then have the audacity to accuse me of only answering about a specific circumstance when I'm talking about the overwhelming majority is disingenuous.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 03:19:22 PM
Let me tell you something. I just posed this question to someone who started covering their hair 2 years ago. She lives in a smaller Jewish community and wears a mask quite often. She obviously covers her hair more often than that, though.

When I asked her this question, she laughed as hard as Iíve heard in a long time..

I am absolutely certain that the sacrifice of someone who begins covering her hair is many times more than that of wearing a mask regardless of how comfortable or uncomfortable it is. Now what?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:19:27 PM
I don't think you are understanding what I am saying. You basically made your argument into "S/he made this tremendous sacrifice to become more frum so now you can at least wear a mask". Not a very convincing argument.
Thatís not what I said at all. Some posters answered the question of relative difficulty by saying itís flat out harder to wear a mask. I call BS- that seems absurd. Saying things like that makes me indeed question the extreme difficulty people are claiming..
Just because you don't check every possible box doesn't mean you're not a mask crazy. You're ready to kill an infant for the sake of everyone wearing masks, that's pretty extreme in my book.
I donít remember saying that Iím ready to kill an infant for the sake of everyone wearing masks but Iíll take your word for it :)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 03:20:31 PM
Question: How beneficial is it for one individual to wear a mask when the remaining 249 people are not?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:23:07 PM
To assume the question only applies to a minority in a specific circumstance and then have the audacity to accuse me of only answering about a specific circumstance when I'm talking about the overwhelming majority is disingenuous.
Sorry, what did you assume the question was about? I assumed the question was about the relative physical difficulty of the actual act. The physical difficulty of the act does not change based on extenuating circumstances, no matter how common it is.

Hence, I donít think saying *the physical act of* covering ones hair all day is clearly easier than wearing a mask when indoors for extended periods of time is intellectually honest.

I am absolutely certain that the sacrifice of someone who begins covering her hair is many times more than that of wearing a mask regardless of how comfortable or uncomfortable it is. Now what?
That was not the question either. @shaulyaakov made a fair point unless one believes the physical imposition of wearing masks is clearly worse.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 03:23:44 PM
Thatís not what I said at all. Some posters answered the question of relative difficulty by saying itís flat out harder to wear a mask. I call BS- that seems absurd. Saying things like that makes me indeed question the extreme difficulty people are claiming..I donít remember saying that Iím ready to kill an infant for the sake of everyone wearing masks but Iíll take your word for it :)
Here you had both a man and a woman disagreeing with your characterization of mask wearing as being less uncomfortable than hats and jackets or shaitels. You don't like their opinion? Fine. Don't expect to convince anyone by telling them that their feelings of discomfort don't matter because they grew up with it.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:26:13 PM
Here you had both a man and a woman disagreeing with your characterization of mask wearing as being less uncomfortable than hats and jackets or shaitels. You don't like their opinion? Fine. Don't expect to convince anyone by telling them that their feelings of discomfort don't matter because they grew up with it.
Actually, it seems both of them subsequently (indirectly) admitted that it was only the extenuating circumstances which led them to that answer.. which was sort of my point. They werenít answering the actual question.
Question: How beneficial is it for one individual to wear a mask when the remaining 249 people are not?
Answer: Usually not very, but more than zero.

If the mask wearer is infected, a very large amount. Just ask @ExGingi about the experience of his guests.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 11, 2020, 03:27:56 PM
Actually, it seems both of them subsequently admitted that it was only the extenuating circumstances which led them to that answer.. which was sort of my point. They werenít answering the actual question.Answer: Usually not very, but more than zero.

If the mask wearer is infected, a very large amount. Just ask @ExGingi about the experience of his guests.
Actually I think even a 3 ply mask is close to 100% effective in protecting it's wearer from infection. Just because the particles can technically make it in doesn't mean it's likely to happen.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 03:29:49 PM
Actually, it seems both of them subsequently (indirectly) admitted that it was only the extenuating circumstances which led them to that answer.. which was sort of my point. They werenít answering the actual question.


You seem more concerned about being right than about being convincing.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 03:30:54 PM
Actually I think even a 3 ply mask is close to 100% effective in protecting it's wearer from infection. Just because the particles can technically make it in doesn't mean it's likely to happen.
So you are arguing for mask wearing to protect the wearer? THere are many studies that call that into question.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 03:33:51 PM
With the exception of edge cases of severe sensory discomfort (which is always dealt with on a case by case basis), we wouldn't let a woman who feelz like showing up to shul on rosh Hashanah in pants and a tank top to come that way. We wouldn't let a man come in an undershirt and shorts, even if wearing a dress shirt is uncomfortable. When people are in our public spaces, we expect them to adhere to the socially excepted dress code.

I don't understand why masks is the line we can't cross. The only difference I can think of is one is viewed as important and necessary, and one is not.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 03:41:39 PM
My point here isn't to say that masks are more or less of a Halachic requirement than tznius. My point is it's not an intellectually honest argument to say that we can't tell people to wear masks in shul since they are too uncomfortable when there's a host of other dress code requirements that are arguably as uncomfortable or more uncomfortable than masks.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: etech0 on September 11, 2020, 03:42:26 PM
Sorry, what did you assume the question was about? I assumed the question was about the relative physical difficulty of the actual act. The physical difficulty of the act does not change based on extenuating circumstances, no matter how common it is.
Nor does it depend on whether or not someone was raised assuming that one day they will assume that minhag.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: etech0 on September 11, 2020, 03:43:20 PM
Actually, it seems both of them subsequently (indirectly) admitted that it was only the extenuating circumstances which led them to that answer
which extenuating circumstances?
I was solely referring to physical discomfort.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:46:30 PM
You seem more concerned about being right than about being convincing.
Correct. That ship has sailed, at least for now. Now if we could at least have an honest intellectual debate, where logic prevails over emotion, perhaps we can reach a consensus.
which extenuating circumstances?
I was solely referring to physical discomfort.
Then you believe that someone who was not indoctrinated from birth to do so would agree that the physical act of covering oneís hair all day is easier and less restrictive than the act of wearing a mask situationally? If so, youíre certainly entitled to your opinion. I thought you retracted that when you posted this
The original question did not mention becoming frummer.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: SayWhat on September 11, 2020, 03:46:49 PM
Making decisions based on "where we are holding now" is extremely shortsighted. Look at what is going on in Israel now, and remember "everybody" had it there already.

The virus acts like a snowball rolling down a hill, it starts off very slowly but then picks up speed and gets larger. Are we looking at a snowball coming down the hill now? I don't know the answer and neither does anybody else. But there is a possibility that it is, and if it is "coming down the hill" then by the time we realize it, it will be coming too fast and too large to stop it. I think it is safe to say that in Israel it "came down the hill", and the restrictions that were put back in place were too little too late and they are facing a complete shutdown now.   

So what are we saying? That what is happening now in Israel can't happen here? Won't happen here? We don't care if it happens here?

It is important for everyone to wear masks indoors, social distance, cut out the weddings etc. not because the current circumstances warrant it, but because there is a reasonable possibility that we are heading for a very dangerous situation. I daven everyday that this small uptick will be just that and fade away. But to deny the possibility that we are only a few weeks behind Israel again is being very naive.

Like I have said before, if I'm wrong I'll be the happiest guy around, but C"V if I am right and you are wrong ...?
 
 
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 11, 2020, 03:48:59 PM
Thank you for laying out my pov.

Beards are very uncomfortable both physically and for many young men not able to adapt to it, yet if they trim or shave, various frum sects will basically treat you as evil.

Tzitzits is very uncomfortable In the summer.. yeah if you say that people will say well they make so many different types that are comfortable etc You're just being lazy.

Honestly, people who don't wear a mask are lazy.

The difference is, you're doing it at the expense of the community.

And yes they will kick out a married woman who has her hair uncovered because they will say "we can't daven with erva"
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 11, 2020, 03:49:19 PM
Why do people here have such a hard time having daas torah and following it? If ur rav doesn't feel there's a need for a mask then there's no need. If your rav feels you should then you should. Why does everyone need to be smarter?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 03:56:07 PM
Why do people here have such a hard time having daas torah and following it? If ur rav doesn't feel there's a need for a mask then there's no need. If your rav feels you should then you should. Why does everyone need to be smarter?
Is it possible that part of their decision not to encourage mask usage is that they know how people will react?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 11, 2020, 03:58:43 PM
Anyone know who's on the Igud that the letter mentions?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 11, 2020, 04:03:40 PM
So you are arguing for mask wearing to protect the wearer? THere are many studies that call that into question.
Yes. The studies show that the virus can enter. Iím not aware of any studies that show it frequently does
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 11, 2020, 04:11:23 PM
Yes. The studies show that the virus can enter. Iím not aware of any studies that show it frequently does

There are studies regarding prevention of contagion.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: S209 on September 11, 2020, 04:40:53 PM


(https://i2.wp.com/laconteconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/6-Principles-of-Persuasion.png?ssl=1)
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Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 11, 2020, 05:14:45 PM
Comfort IMO is not the litmus test of yes mask or no mask. Only exception I take with the comfort issue is when the YES MASKS say it is no bother, because I do find it somewhat uncomfortable.

The litmus test is daas torah. The BMG roshei hayeshiva know the political / legal / dina dmalchusa aspects and we can assume have absorbed the relevant medical guidance and have determined that masks are not necessary to be on the agenda of COVID protection. You don't need to agree with them, but those who follow their leadership - daas torah if you may - are acting with validity in their mehalach hachayim sans mask. The hamon am should not be putting down, calling them lazy and otherwise vilifying those who follow this direction. IMO it isn't correct for lay people to tell others "just put on a mask" under these conditions.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 11, 2020, 05:23:26 PM
I noticed that R' Yeruchem didn't sign it. He's also been the most personally cautious with regards to covid.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 05:32:36 PM
Comfort IMO is not the litmus test of yes mask or no mask. Only exception I take with the comfort issue is when the YES MASKS say it is no bother, because I do find it somewhat uncomfortable.

The litmus test is daas torah. The BMG roshei hayeshiva know the political / legal / dina dmalchusa aspects and we can assume have absorbed the relevant medical guidance and have determined that masks are not necessary to be on the agenda of COVID protection. You don't need to agree with them, but those who follow their leadership - daas torah if you may - are acting with validity in their mehalach hachayim sans mask. The hamon am should not be putting down, calling them lazy and otherwise vilifying those who follow this direction. IMO it isn't correct for lay people to tell others "just put on a mask" under these conditions.
The point where I disagree is that the guidance is the floor, not the ceiling.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 11, 2020, 05:34:30 PM
Also, the MO approach to Daas Torah is  completely different, but that's not seething I'm going to touch here witu a 10 foot pole.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yesitsme on September 11, 2020, 05:47:17 PM
Comfort IMO is not the litmus test of yes mask or no mask. Only exception I take with the comfort issue is when the YES MASKS say it is no bother, because I do find it somewhat uncomfortable.

The litmus test is daas torah. The BMG roshei hayeshiva know the political / legal / dina dmalchusa aspects and we can assume have absorbed the relevant medical guidance and have determined that masks are not necessary to be on the agenda of COVID protection. You don't need to agree with them, but those who follow their leadership - daas torah if you may - are acting with validity in their mehalach hachayim sans mask. The hamon am should not be putting down, calling them lazy and otherwise vilifying those who follow this direction. IMO it isn't correct for lay people to tell others "just put on a mask" under these conditions.
I guess you never heard of
רבינו סר מן הדרך

A ruv that kills people is not a ruv
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 11, 2020, 06:16:28 PM
Another wedding this week both sides from Lakewood. Mother of the chosson is now bedridden with covid, was symptomatic shortly after the wedding. Shabbos sheva brachos is mostly canceled. Mother of chosson cant attend any sheva brachos. Many guests exposed.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yesitsme on September 11, 2020, 06:27:03 PM
as always never take medical advice from anonymous forums
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 11, 2020, 06:44:12 PM
Comfort IMO is not the litmus test of yes mask or no mask. Only exception I take with the comfort issue is when the YES MASKS say it is no bother, because I do find it somewhat uncomfortable.

The litmus test is daas torah. The BMG roshei hayeshiva know the political / legal / dina dmalchusa aspects and we can assume have absorbed the relevant medical guidance and have determined that masks are not necessary to be on the agenda of COVID protection. You don't need to agree with them, but those who follow their leadership - daas torah if you may - are acting with validity in their mehalach hachayim sans mask. The hamon am should not be putting down, calling them lazy and otherwise vilifying those who follow this direction. IMO it isn't correct for lay people to tell others "just put on a mask" under these conditions.

Here in Miami, some cities will fine you for not wearing a mask outside.

We are machmir for pikuach nefesh, shame to see rabbanim forgetting the halacha.

Shammai was reprimanded for not feeding his son on yom kippur

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 11, 2020, 07:02:20 PM
Here in Miami, some cities will fine you for not wearing a mask outside.

We are machmir for pikuach nefesh, shame to see rabbanim forgetting the halacha.

Shammai was reprimanded for not feeding his son on yom kippur

Easy, now... let's not go into shabbos making such broad accusations. We've been here before. It wasn't very productive. "The road to hell is paved with good intentions," and that cuts many ways.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yesitsme on September 12, 2020, 08:53:58 PM
Here in Miami, some cities will fine you for not wearing a mask outside.

We are machmir for pikuach nefesh, shame to see rabbanim forgetting the halacha.

Shammai was reprimanded for not feeding his son on yom kippur


Shame on your filthy keypad for typing such words
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 12, 2020, 09:27:21 PM
15* new cases via OCHD.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 12, 2020, 09:30:19 PM
Someone was hospitalized today, low 50s.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 12, 2020, 09:33:08 PM
I thought it over and I don't understand the opposition .

Will it impede with people learning and davening ?

Is it considered dressing like the gentiles?

Judaism has thrived by a cycle of death and moving on, hence the need for simcha's etc.

If there's no blanket mask rule, no one will wear it, even if they suspect that they may be sick, there's too much of a stigma and no one wants to stand out.
.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 12, 2020, 09:34:45 PM
The point where I disagree is that the guidance is the floor, not the ceiling.
I disagree, but even if I did agree, why is it incumbent on anyone to be more machmir than their rov?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 12, 2020, 09:36:35 PM
Will it impede with people learning and davening ?
It definitely does, I think it was here on DDF that some have mentioned shorter davening on yomin noraim because everyone needs to wear a mask.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 12, 2020, 09:37:44 PM
CAN WE PLEASE MOVE THE MASK DISCUSSION TO ITS PROPER THREAD?

https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=115316.15
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: YitzyS on September 12, 2020, 09:38:24 PM
Someone was hospitalized today, low 50s.
There were two. The other was younger than 30.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 12, 2020, 10:07:27 PM
At an urgent care tonight, place is packed with people asking for COVID tests. One smart lady walked in without a mask asking for a COVID test.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 12, 2020, 10:09:32 PM
At an urgent care tonight, place is packed with people asking for COVID tests. One smart lady walked in without a mask asking for a COVID test.
Guess they didn't get the "don't test" memo. It's fine though, the urgent care just won't report.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 12, 2020, 10:09:55 PM
At an urgent care tonight, place is packed with people asking for COVID tests. One smart lady walked in without a mask asking for a COVID test.
I had the same thing a few weeks ago. The woman asking for a COVID test is probably there because she needs proof of a negative test, not because she has reason to believe she's positive.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 12, 2020, 10:10:19 PM
Guess they didn't get the "don't test" memo. It's fine though, the urgent care just won't report.
It's fine, if they need more positive tests they'll just make them up.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 12, 2020, 10:13:17 PM
Guess they didn't get the "don't test" memo. It's fine though, the urgent care just won't report.
Guess they don't read ddf...
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 12, 2020, 10:20:36 PM
Guess they didn't get the "don't test" memo. It's fine though, the urgent care just won't report.

Are you serious that they donít report?

Guess they don't read ddf...

For every person testing thereís probably 5 that refuse to.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 12, 2020, 10:21:29 PM
Are you serious that they donít report?

A pet conspiracy theory of mine right now.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: eis517 on September 12, 2020, 10:22:01 PM
I had the same thing a few weeks ago. The woman asking for a COVID test is probably there because she needs proof of a negative test, not because she has reason to believe she's positive.

I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not, but if she has no reason to believe she is positive, walking into a packed testing center without a mask is a great way to ensure she proves herself wrong.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: etech0 on September 12, 2020, 10:35:40 PM
I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not, but if she has no reason to believe she is positive, walking into a packed testing center without a mask is a great way to ensure she proves herself wrong.
Maybe she has antibodies
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Traveler718 on September 12, 2020, 11:01:56 PM
To DDF's credit, a friend of mine in Monsey told me that he was in a local urgent care center last month and was shocked that not one person there for testing was wearing a mask properly ... except for @Something Fishy (who was presumably there to get his weekly negative PCR for AK).
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 12, 2020, 11:08:01 PM
Its not only Lakewood. I spoke to someone in Flatbush and the girls school there, which requires masks, told anyone not feeling well to stay home, just don't get tested.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yuneeq on September 12, 2020, 11:17:14 PM
A pet conspiracy theory of mine right now.

Or could be because everyone asks for rapids
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Sammy82 on September 13, 2020, 02:18:15 AM

A pet conspiracy theory of mine right now.
Here in NY if u don't report properly (including timely) you could face major fines. I know somebody that made a few honest reporting mistakes and it cost his company 12k (2k for 6 infractions). The DOH is looking for any excuse to fine business (generally there's an error rate that is acceptable but for the past few months they've been going after companies for the smallest things).
I can't imagine NJ doesn't have reporting requirements and do t see any urgent care center of doctor's office would risk getting cited for not properly reporting, even if they may not get the large fine. It's still on their record and could eventually lead to losing a license.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 13, 2020, 02:42:19 AM
I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not, but if she has no reason to believe she is positive, walking into a packed testing center without a mask is a great way to ensure she proves herself wrong.
I'm not sure why you think I'm sarcastic.
Here in NY if u don't report properly (including timely) you could face major fines. I know somebody that made a few honest reporting mistakes and it cost his company 12k (2k for 6 infractions). The DOH is looking for any excuse to fine business (generally there's an error rate that is acceptable but for the past few months they've been going after companies for the smallest things).
I can't imagine NJ doesn't have reporting requirements and do t see any urgent care center of doctor's office would risk getting cited for not properly reporting, even if they may not get the large fine. It's still on their record and could eventually lead to losing a license.
Maybe that's why someone who never got tested got a call that they tested positive.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Dawie on September 13, 2020, 01:29:42 PM
https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/09/thursday-september-10-news-updates.html
@Yard sale maybe this is the letter? My impression was that it would be from the BMG poskim...
now they actually printed the letter at Hefkervelt and it's nothing like you quoted
https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/09/letter-rabbonim-talmidei-chacomim-not.html
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 13, 2020, 01:37:34 PM
now they actually printed the letter at Hefkervelt and it's nothing like you quoted
https://hefkervelt.blogspot.com/2020/09/letter-rabbonim-talmidei-chacomim-not.html
Different letter. Not from the recognized poskim or manhigim
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Dawie on September 13, 2020, 02:05:34 PM
Different letter. Not from the recognized poskim or manhigim
Wasn't referring to that letter, Euclid  mentioned way back a letter coming out ... and now its out
his or your quote

 "Letter by Harav Eliyohu Levin shlita and other Rabbonim and Talmidei Chachomim stress the importance and  duty of care for health and safety  and should not be underestimated, but that the effort must be to find precautions that will not interfere with the Torah. It is impossible to lower the level of Torah study which is a ikur A definite, Ki Heim Chayeinu over chashash."

on second glance its not so far off, maybe less focus on importance of healthcare and more on Ki Heim Chayeinu

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 13, 2020, 02:11:46 PM
Wasn't referring to that letter, Euclid  mentioned way back a letter coming out ... and now its out
his or your quote

 "Letter by Harav Eliyohu Levin shlita and other Rabbonim and Talmidei Chachomim stress the importance and  duty of care for health and safety  and should not be underestimated, but that the effort must be to find precautions that will not interfere with the Torah. It is impossible to lower the level of Torah study which is a ikur A definite, Ki Heim Chayeinu over chashash."

on second glance its not so far off, maybe less focus on importance of healthcare and more on Ki Heim Chayeinu
Was quoting from hefkervelt, hadn't seen the letter personally.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 13, 2020, 03:30:07 PM
In light of the two letters this weekend, both with similar tone, signed by a list of Lakewood Rabbonim and BMG roshei yeshiva, how do you characterize this as

רבינו סר מן הדרך
???





Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 13, 2020, 04:03:45 PM
How does wearing a mask interfere?

The cold Russian winters never interfere with anybody.

I guess all those stories of extreme mesiras nefesh have no bearing on reality, a mask!!! Oh my Lord!! It's intrusive!! I can't shuckle properly

Joking aside, How does that justify all the weddings with 500 people and nobody wearing a mask?

And if that doesn't serve by example then nobody's ever going to wear it ever and that has broader problems, like maaras ayin etc
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Ergel on September 13, 2020, 04:16:07 PM
Serious question...those who "can't wear a mask" - have you ever gone skiing?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 13, 2020, 04:36:15 PM
Serious question...those who "can't wear a mask" - have you ever gone skiing?
Yes well try wearing skis and gear in shul for 3 hours
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 13, 2020, 04:44:21 PM
For me the mask does not interfere with listening to krias hatorah for example. The mask IS a serious barrier to saying the words of slichos, pesukei d'zimra or shemona esrei with enthusiasm! It starts choking, fogging the glasses and interferes with davening generally and instead of concentrating on the words, the mask demands alot of the attention.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: good sam on September 13, 2020, 05:29:24 PM
For me the mask does not interfere with listening to krias hatorah for example. The mask IS a serious barrier to saying the words of slichos, pesukei d'zimra or shemona esrei with enthusiasm! It starts choking, fogging the glasses and interferes with davening generally and instead of concentrating on the words, the mask demands alot of the attention.
If you think wearing a mask is worthwhile, try a different mask. It's about getting the right fit, especially on the bridge of your nose to prevent the warm breath from getting to your glasses. For me, it's the disposable surgical masks that fit best, but only the ones with a bendable wire at the top that takes the shape of your nose.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 13, 2020, 05:56:26 PM
Anyone know who's on the Igud that the letter mentions?
R' Forcheimer
R' Henoch Shachar
R' Aryeh Sherwinter
R' Uri Deutch (Forest Park)
R' Chaim Meir Roth (Sterling Forest)
 
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 13, 2020, 05:58:52 PM
Different community I know, but there's a video circulating of selichos in 770 with almost nobody masked, even tough 770 has a mask policy (allegedly). So can someone explain again where the Daas Torah is in all of this?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yzj on September 13, 2020, 06:23:48 PM
Different community I know, but there's a video circulating of selichos in 770 with almost nobody masked, even tough 770 has a mask policy (allegedly). So can someone explain again where the Daas Torah is in all of this?
Whereís the MO Daías Torah on the beaches, the cruise ships, the Broadway shows, the widespread mixed swimming by pesach hotels and other venues etc? Answer, Rabbanim have to be selective about what they enforce and have to make their voices heard where there is maximum effectiveness.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 13, 2020, 06:25:56 PM
Whereís the MO Daías Torah on the beaches, the cruise ships, the Broadway shows, the widespread mixed swimming by pesach hotels and other venues etc? Answer, Rabbanim have to be selective about what they enforce and have to make their voices heard where there is maximum effectiveness.
The argument here is that people don't need to wear masks because the rabbonim have said they don't need to. In the case of 770, reportedly, they DO require masks. So which is it? Are people not wearing masks because they are following Daas Torah, or are they doing what they want, and finding rabbis who agree with them?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 13, 2020, 06:28:02 PM
770 doesn't belong in this thread. CH has its own thread and its own problems.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: hllulbh1 on September 13, 2020, 09:22:23 PM
The argument here is that people don't need to wear masks because the rabbonim have said they don't need to. In the case of 770, reportedly, they DO require masks. So which is it? Are people not wearing masks because they are following Daas Torah, or are they doing what they want, and finding rabbis who agree with them?

You bring up a good point. I don't know the reality in CH, but would use Vishnitz in Monsey as an example. I was at a chasunah there in Av and they had signs on every door requesting social distancing, etc. In reality there was no social distancing etc. whatsoever. So the signs are sometimes just to cover themselves from scrutiny, when in practice their daas torah apparently does not require any of it. Maybe CH is the same?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: YitzyS on September 13, 2020, 09:23:53 PM
There are 4 hospitalizations from Lakewood, and an additional 5 people on oxygen.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 13, 2020, 09:24:21 PM
You bring up a good point. I don't know the reality in CH, but would use Vishnitz in Monsey as an example. I was at a chasunah there in Av and they had signs on every door requesting social distancing, etc. In reality there was no social distancing etc. whatsoever. So the signs are sometimes just to cover themselves from scrutiny, when in practice their daas torah apparently does not require any of it. Maybe CH is the same?
Or people cite the Daas Torah when it's convenient, and ignore it when it's inconvenient?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Traveler718 on September 13, 2020, 09:35:56 PM
There are 4 hospitalizations from Lakewood, and an additional 5 people on oxygen.

Age ranges? Any preexisting conditions?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: David61 on September 13, 2020, 11:43:05 PM
There are 4 hospitalizations from Lakewood, and an additional 5 people on oxygen.

Source?

Any community other than Crown Heights (https://covid19ch.blogspot.com/) keeping and posting statistics for their community.
Reason won't convince to many people, perhaps hard data (r'l) will help sway people if there is an uptick.
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 13, 2020, 11:50:29 PM
Source?

Any community other than Crown Heights (https://covid19ch.blogspot.com/) keeping and posting statistics for their community.
Reason won't convince to many people, perhaps hard data (r'l) will help sway people if there is an uptick.
There's clear guidance from our community leaders that we should strive to continue daily life as much as possible. What you and me consider morbid statistics apparently aren't a big enough factor yet; the letter (BMG) was put out after there were many hatzolah calls and hospitalizations.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 14, 2020, 10:31:44 AM
Another wedding this week both sides from Lakewood. Mother of the chosson is now bedridden with covid, was symptomatic shortly after the wedding. Shabbos sheva brachos is mostly canceled. Mother of chosson cant attend any sheva brachos. Many guests exposed.
one of the Lakewood hospitalized
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 14, 2020, 10:49:28 AM
Source?

Any community other than Crown Heights (https://covid19ch.blogspot.com/) keeping and posting statistics for their community.
Reason won't convince to many people, perhaps hard data (r'l) will help sway people if there is an uptick.

Is the Chemed tracker available for public viewing, or is it only for internal use?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 14, 2020, 10:52:50 AM
There are 4 hospitalizations from Lakewood, and an additional 5 people on oxygen.
Source?
This morning I was told by a Hatzala member that there haven't been any transports.
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 14, 2020, 10:54:58 AM
Source?
This morning I was told by a Hatzala member that there haven't been any transports.
1) that's false. I know for sure that they at least transported someone 2 Thursdays ago.

2) there are other ways of getting to the hospital than via hatzolah transport.

3) I believe that hatzolah is part of the coverup and their members have been instructed to keep things on the down low. (Your anecdote isn't the first one I've heard that's contradicted the facts.)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 14, 2020, 11:05:43 AM
Source?
This morning I was told by a Hatzala member that there haven't been any transports.
I believe there was one on shabbos. Donít know if Hatzoloh did the actual transport to kimball but they were definitely involved
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 14, 2020, 11:15:07 AM
1) that's false. I know for sure that they at least transported someone 2 Thursdays ago.

2) there are other ways of getting to the hospital than via hatzolah transport.

3) I believe that hatzolah is part of the coverup and their members have been instructed to keep things on the down low. (Your anecdote isn't the first one I've heard that's contradicted the facts.)
is it hard sleeping at night when you spend your days trying to uncover the deep state plot of lying to you about covid stats?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 14, 2020, 11:18:32 AM
is it hard sleeping at night when you spend your days trying to uncover the deep state plot of lying to you about covid stats?
Lol it's not a deep state plot. No one is hiding that this is what they're doing. It's literally not a secret what the plan is; speak to anyone who runs a mosed in town.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: flyingace on September 14, 2020, 11:21:51 AM
Lol it's not a deep state plot. No one is hiding that this is what they're doing. It's literally not a secret what the plan is; speak to anyone who runs a mosed in town.
AFAIK Hatzalah, Bikur Cholim , etc. are trying to be as accurate as possible so that they have a handle on what is actually happening.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 14, 2020, 11:25:18 AM
AFAIK Hatzalah, Bikur Cholim , etc. are trying to be as accurate as possible so that they have a handle on what is actually happening.
100% but they aren't making the information/data available because they don't want people panicking.

I'm not saying I don't agree with the approach...
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 14, 2020, 11:29:04 AM
100% but they aren't making the information/data available because they don't want people panicking.

I'm not saying I don't agree with the approach...
Isn't "panic" good? At the end of the day, the best way to control what's going on is for a lot of people to be much more vigilant.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 14, 2020, 11:31:16 AM
Isn't "panic" good? At the end of the day, the best way to control what's going on is for a lot of people to be much more vigilant.
Look how well it worked, because everyone panicked the first time around everyone is listening to the rules and wearing masks.

Panic is never good, it means people don't think which never leads to a good outcome.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Dawie on September 14, 2020, 11:34:05 AM
Look how well it worked, because everyone panicked the first time around everyone is listening to the rules and wearing masks.

Panic is never good, it means people don't think which never leads to a good outcome.
panic is great, haven't had to shop for toilet paper in months......
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: flyingace on September 14, 2020, 11:35:30 AM
100% but they aren't making the information/data available because they don't want people panicking.

I'm not saying I don't agree with the approach...
Isn't "panic" good? At the end of the day, the best way to control what's going on is for a lot of people to be much more vigilant.
Look how well it worked, because everyone panicked the first time around everyone is listening to the rules and wearing masks.

Panic is never good, it means people don't think which never leads to a good outcome.
I don't think we need panic. Doesn't everyone already know people who are sick this time around? Shouldn't that be enough to convince people to be more careful?
Title: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 14, 2020, 11:36:42 AM
Isn't "panic" good? At the end of the day, the best way to control what's going on is for a lot of people to be much more vigilant.
Being that it seems most people think that it's binary - lockdown or regular life, I don't think they're overestimating people's tendency to think in black and white, and not take a measured approach.

It's a conscious decision they've (leaders) made so there's definitely some logic involved. Even if I may not fully agree...
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 14, 2020, 11:47:42 AM
Being that it seems most people think that it's binary - lockdown or regular life, I don't think they're overestimating people's tendency to think in black and white, and not take a measured approach.

It's a conscious decision they've (leaders) made so there's definitely some logic involved. Even if I may not fully agree...
Yeah, porch minyanim and outdoor weddings died too soon.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 14, 2020, 12:00:04 PM
If masks were the norm, you wouldn't find it binary.

I ate out once indoors begging of June when Miami re-opened.

Rest has been outdoors and to go. I don't miss anything.

I don't shop for clothing but man, I'd be worried for all the families shopping in store for chagim without masks
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 14, 2020, 12:46:38 PM
panic is great, haven't had to shop for toilet paper in months......
How much did you overpay for the toilet paper?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 14, 2020, 12:47:47 PM
I don't think we need panic. Doesn't everyone already know people who are sick this time around? Shouldn't that be enough to convince people to be more careful?

Lol!
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 14, 2020, 12:56:01 PM
If masks were the norm, you wouldn't find it binary.

I ate out once indoors begging of June when Miami re-opened.

Rest has been outdoors and to go. I don't miss anything.

I don't shop for clothing but man, I'd be worried for all the families shopping in store for chagim without masks
You do realize there is whole frum world outside ddf, living life without masks. Not getting covid, not dying, and totally unaware of all the anger, frustration and name calling here. Shopping for clothing every day and not having issues, totally unaware of the controversy there causing here, fascinating.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shaulyaakov on September 14, 2020, 01:03:13 PM
You do realize there is whole frum world outside ddf, living life without masks. Not getting covid, not dying, and totally unaware of all the anger, frustration and name calling here. Shopping for clothing every day and not having issues, totally unaware of the controversy there causing here, fascinating.
By the same token, most adults in the broader NY area are wearing masks every time they go out and are surviving. Somehow it's only frum people that have a problem with this particular way of life.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: chevron on September 14, 2020, 01:07:33 PM
You do realize there is whole frum world outside ddf, living life without masks. Not getting covid, not dying, and totally unaware of all the anger, frustration and name calling here. Shopping for clothing every day and not having issues, totally unaware of the controversy there causing here, fascinating.

And what was the price of the supposed immunity?

And the non stop charity ads I see about hundreds who died from coronavirus, are you single handedly supporting the widows and orphan's.

All that some selfish people can shop without a mask.

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Afrages6 on September 14, 2020, 01:12:02 PM
Yeah, porch minyanim and outdoor weddings died too soon.
Because they started too late
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yaakov35 on September 14, 2020, 01:21:54 PM
And what was the price of the supposed immunity?

And the non stop charity ads I see about hundreds who died from coronavirus, are you single handedly supporting the widows and orphan's.

All that some selfish people can shop without a mask.
You really need help. Refuah shleima.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 14, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
Source?
This morning I was told by a Hatzala member that there haven't been any transports.
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1901424/important-hatzolah-medical-director-urging-people-not-to-avoid-hospitals-if-they-have-covid-19-and-need-treatment.html
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 14, 2020, 02:01:37 PM
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1901424/important-hatzolah-medical-director-urging-people-not-to-avoid-hospitals-if-they-have-covid-19-and-need-treatment.html

This is something that isn't being taken into account when people are being told to either not test or not report cases. A misinformed and undereducated public is dangerous. Infections that could be dealt with quickly and easily can C"V become much more serious.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 14, 2020, 02:04:06 PM
This is something that isn't being taken into account when people are being told to either not test or not report cases. A misinformed and undereducated public is dangerous. Infections that could be dealt with quickly and easily can C"V become much more serious.
Doesn't help when one of the most prominent community leaders is consistently espousing the claim that people only died because they went to the hospital.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 15, 2020, 06:40:10 PM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/09/letter-an-open-letter-to-open-minds.html

(Yes, I'm surprised TLS actually posted this.)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yelped on September 15, 2020, 06:48:24 PM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/09/letter-an-open-letter-to-open-minds.html

(Yes, I'm surprised TLS actually posted this.)
Wow. Finally a voice of reason. Crazy that this has to said. This is simply pointing out the obvious.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 15, 2020, 06:51:22 PM
https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/09/letter-an-open-letter-to-open-minds.html

(Yes, I'm surprised TLS actually posted this.)

Sounds like it was picked right off of the DDF Covid board. Well written!
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 15, 2020, 06:58:07 PM
Wow. Finally a voice of reason. Crazy that this has to said. This is simply pointing out the obvious.
Wish he talked about one of the most important sources, weddings.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 15, 2020, 07:00:49 PM
Wish he talked about one of the most important sources, weddings.

It's likely it was left out because it's a non-issue for the next few weeks, while the other things are pertinent immediately and through Tishrei.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 15, 2020, 07:01:32 PM
It's likely it was left out because it's a non-issue for the next few weeks, while the other things are pertinent immediately and through Tishrei.
True
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Dawie on September 15, 2020, 08:52:29 PM
How much did you overpay for the toilet paper?
didn't overpay
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 16, 2020, 02:58:24 PM
So OCHD reports 66 new cases in Lakewood. Pretty sure the cat is now out of the bag. What happens next?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 16, 2020, 03:00:05 PM
So OCHD reports 66 new cases in Lakewood. Pretty sure the cat is now out of the bag. What happens next?
What is the 7 day average?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: CRACKERJACK on September 16, 2020, 03:00:57 PM
So OCHD reports 66 new cases in Lakewood. Pretty sure the cat is now out of the bag. What happens next?
Its been for some time.
However most are not testing
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 16, 2020, 03:10:50 PM
What is the 7 day average?

26.0
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 16, 2020, 03:12:25 PM
Its been for some time.
However most are not testing

You and I know that. My point is that OCHD is reporting a major uptick (major compared to their previous numbers). Do we think that the state will just ignore that?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 16, 2020, 03:20:44 PM
26.0

A week ago the 7 day average was around 20/day. 66 is a big number for OCHD, but the 7 day is ticking up fairly slowly.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 16, 2020, 03:21:20 PM
You and I know that. My point is that OCHD is reporting a major uptick (major compared to their previous numbers). Do we think that the state will just ignore that?
For it to be such a high number and still have a 7 day average only slightly higher than what it had been that means the numbers for today are catching up from days earlier this week.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 16, 2020, 03:25:56 PM
A week ago the 7 day average was around 20/day. 66 is a big number for OCHD, but the 7 day is ticking up fairly slowly.
A week ago (9/9) the 7D was 13.9
The 7D was never hit 20 as long as I have been tracking it (since 6/1).
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 16, 2020, 03:27:09 PM
For it to be such a high number and still have a 7 day average only slightly higher than what it had been that means the numbers for today are catching up from days earlier this week.
Or they'll revise the number down tomorrow.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 16, 2020, 03:32:45 PM
Or they'll revise the number down tomorrow.
Maybe, but the last time they revised a case number down was a month ago (8/17).
The total number of cases that were revised down was 43. 43 out of 3,177.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 16, 2020, 03:39:09 PM
Maybe, but the last time they revised a case number down was a month ago (8/17).
The total number of cases that were revised down was 43. 43 out of 3,177.
They have a history of publishing a huge spike before revising the numbers the next day.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 16, 2020, 03:46:18 PM
A week ago (9/9) the 7D was 13.9
The 7D was never hit 20 as long as I have been tracking it (since 6/1).

Your numbers are probably better than mine. I seem to remember there being 140+ cases, but that could have been over 8-9 days. You have a spreadsheet?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 16, 2020, 03:46:58 PM
They have a history of publishing a huge spike before revising the numbers the next day.
For the 116 days that I was tracking, they revised numbers down a total of 6 times. Only 2 of those times was the revision greater than -10 (-17 & -12).

If you are doubting that there is a very substantial outbreak going on now in Lakewood (exponentially greater than what is being reported in these OCHD numbers) I suggest you speak with any health professional in town.

Cue the "weaker strain", "false positives"... etc
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: dasmo801 on September 16, 2020, 03:49:51 PM
Your numbers are probably better than mine. I seem to remember there being 140+ cases, but that could have been over 8-9 days. You have a spreadsheet?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Baruch on September 16, 2020, 04:03:57 PM
For the 116 days that I was tracking, they revised numbers down a total of 6 times. Only 2 of those times was the revision greater than -10 (-17 & -12).

If you are doubting that there is a very substantial outbreak going on now in Lakewood (exponentially greater than what is being reported in these OCHD numbers) I suggest you speak with any mental health professional in town.

Cue the "weaker strain", "false positives"... etc
FTFY
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cholent on September 16, 2020, 04:52:11 PM
Its been for some time.
However most are not testing
I keep hearing that, but the local urgent cares all have 2+ hour waits of people testing, and everyone I know who thinks they may have covid is testing. Nobody wants to isolate for nothing
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Kobe Bryant on September 16, 2020, 04:55:51 PM
I'm aware of a family that tested positive for Covid19 in Lakewood. They were quarantined to the extreme, back in March-June.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 16, 2020, 04:59:08 PM
I keep hearing that, but the local urgent cares all have 2+ hour waits of people testing, and everyone I know who thinks they may have covid is testing. Nobody wants to isolate for nothing
Makes sense

(https://i.postimg.cc/JhmRQQDg/021-E4-C80-E804-436-A-A505-B1-D0-F1-CDC3-F8.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

(https://i.postimg.cc/K8tZLWzB/75291906-A9-D7-4-AC8-A29-B-B23-B8-B0-AF9-B1.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: cholent on September 16, 2020, 04:59:55 PM
I'm aware of a family that tested positive for Covid19 in Lakewood. They were quarantined to the extreme, back in March-June.
Why is this surprising?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: flyingace on September 16, 2020, 05:06:21 PM
I keep hearing that, but the local urgent cares all have 2+ hour waits of people testing, and everyone I know who thinks they may have covid is testing. Nobody wants to isolate for nothing
People also don't want to stay home from Shul for a maybe. If they test negative they will go to Shul.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Kobe Bryant on September 16, 2020, 05:18:30 PM
Why is this surprising?
Not!
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Kobe Bryant on September 16, 2020, 05:20:43 PM
Several Lakewood police officers are self-quarantining after learning someone who attended the funeral of a cop last week has tested positive for COVID-19, department officials said.

The Lakewood Township Police Department found out about the positive test late Monday, days after hundreds of mourners gathered at FirstEnergy Park on Friday for the funeral of Officer Nicklas Shimonovich, a police spokesman told The New York Post.

Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: good sam on September 16, 2020, 07:22:29 PM
A week ago (9/9) the 7D was 13.9
The 7D was never hit 20 as long as I have been tracking it (since 6/1).
Rockland also had its highest single reading (43) in about 4 months. 7dma also mid to high 20s.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 16, 2020, 07:24:21 PM
Several Lakewood police officers are self-quarantining after learning someone who attended the funeral of a cop last week has tested positive for COVID-19, department officials said.

The Lakewood Township Police Department found out about the positive test late Monday, days after hundreds of mourners gathered at FirstEnergy Park on Friday for the funeral of Officer Nicklas Shimonovich, a police spokesman told The New York Post.
Lends some credence to the symptomatic people running to  test before Rosh Hashana theory.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yelped on September 16, 2020, 07:30:33 PM
Lends some credence to the symptomatic people running to  test before Rosh Hashana theory.
You seem to keep pushing things to fit your agenda. Unfortunately, what is clear is that there is a tremendous spread the last few weeks. In one location of Chai alone, they administered over 300 Covid tests yesterday. I know many people personally who have tested positive over the last few days.

I'm sure they will be very thankful to the people who *had* to have indoors weddings with full hefkeris when they daven Rosh Hashanah at home, with their entire family quarantining along with them.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: shmooz on September 16, 2020, 07:31:16 PM
Where can one get a rapid test in Lakewood?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 16, 2020, 07:41:43 PM
You seem to keep pushing things to fit your agenda. Unfortunately, what is clear is that there is a tremendous spread the last few weeks. In one location of Chai alone, they administered over 300 Covid tests yesterday. I know many people personally who have tested positive over the last few days.

I'm sure they will be very thankful to the people who *had* to have indoors weddings with full hefkeris when they daven Rosh Hashanah at home, with their entire family quarantining along with them.
So you think that the 2 hour wait times for testing yesterday and the simultaneous jump in numbers in Lakewood and monsey has nothing to do with Rosh Hashana? Ok.....
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yelped on September 16, 2020, 07:51:13 PM
So you think that the 2 hour wait times for testing yesterday and the simultaneous jump in numbers in Lakewood and monsey has nothing to do with Rosh Hashana? Ok.....
You think it has nothing to do with the enormous increase of cases?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 16, 2020, 07:54:22 PM
So you think that the 2 hour wait times for testing yesterday and the simultaneous jump in numbers in Lakewood and monsey has nothing to do with Rosh Hashana? Ok.....

I'm confused. I thought RH is just like a regular shabbos in Lakewood. Why the rush for tests?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Kobe Bryant on September 16, 2020, 07:55:04 PM
You think it has nothing to do with the enormous increase of cases?
Why is everyone acting shocked that it's running through the community again. Many people were quarantined and then SD and it finally caught up with them.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 16, 2020, 08:06:26 PM
Why is everyone acting shocked that it's running through the community again. Many people were quarantined and then SD and it finally caught up with them.

Who's acting shocked? Read this thread from a few weeks back when people were begging for weddings to be smaller and outdoors, begging for others to wear masks, warning that hundreds of people wouldn't be able to go to shul on RH. The shock is in the continued denial and the constant moving of the goalposts.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 16, 2020, 08:06:26 PM
You think it has nothing to do with the enormous increase of cases?

So you think that this was going around like this the whole time and was never gone?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yelped on September 16, 2020, 08:06:51 PM
Why is everyone acting shocked that it's running through the community again. Many people were quarantined and then SD and it finally caught up with them.
Because of the people not SD.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: avromie7 on September 16, 2020, 08:07:49 PM
I'm confused. I thought RH is just like a regular shabbos in Lakewood. Why the rush for tests?
Because people have a bigger issue with missing Rosh Hashana davening.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yelped on September 16, 2020, 08:08:24 PM
So you think that this was going around like this the whole time and was never gone?
Huh? I'm not sure how you understood that from what I wrote.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 16, 2020, 08:08:52 PM
Because people have a bigger issue with missing Rosh Hashana davening.

But why are the women and children getting tested?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yelped on September 16, 2020, 08:09:40 PM
Because people have a bigger issue with missing Rosh Hashana davening.
More than staying home for 2 weeks? Whoever is testing just to find out if they're negative and not have to stay home for 2 weeks would do it regardless of RH.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 16, 2020, 08:13:09 PM
Because people have a bigger issue with missing Rosh Hashana davening.
Missing RH davening is a big time deal for some. Also yeshivas schools and shuls are being more  serious about symptomatic people attending. Heard from several people who are testing so they can resume attending.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: yelped on September 16, 2020, 08:13:54 PM
Missing RH davening is a big time deal for some. Also yeshivas schools and shuls are being more  serious about symptomatic people attending. Heard from several people who are testing so they can resume attending.
You didn't answer the question.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 16, 2020, 08:15:07 PM
Huh? I'm not sure how you understood that from what I wrote.
Missing RH davening is a big time deal for some. Also yeshivas schools and shuls are being more  serious about symptomatic people attending. Heard from several people who are testing so they can resume attending.
So is this or isn't this an uptick? Is this because there are more cases or because more just because of more people testing?
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Lurker on September 16, 2020, 08:16:44 PM
Missing RH davening is a big time deal for some.

If it's such a big deal, why was I laughed at 3 weeks ago?

Do you understand that this would mean many hundreds, if not thousand, of people who won't be able to go to shul on Rosh Hashana? Every sick case, plus their families and close contacts, will have to quarantine. On top of that, all of the mid-to-high risk people will have to stay home because there are too many cases in the community for them to go to public places like shuls. So there won't be a repeat of March and there won't be a situation where the whole community has it. How many people need to have their Yomim Noraim ruined? How many people need to miss out on davening with a minyan? How many families need to spend Tishrei isolated or worrying about a hospitalized family member? Is it really too much to ask people to take some precautions for 6 weeks? Wear a mask? Keep the weddings smaller?

Enough is enough.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 16, 2020, 08:17:08 PM
So is this or isn't this an uptick? Is this because there are more cases or because more just because of more people testing?

I think you're confusing @yelped and @Yard sale
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 16, 2020, 08:18:49 PM
I think you're confusing @yelped and @Yard sale
Maybe. Sorry.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Yard sale on September 16, 2020, 08:19:04 PM
So is this or isn't this an uptick? Is this because there are more cases or because more just because of more people testing?
Hard to claim itís not an uptick- pretty clear there is, but I think the RH dynamic is playing a role
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: aygart on September 16, 2020, 08:24:03 PM
Hard to claim itís not an uptick- pretty clear there is, but I think the RH dynamic is playing a role
It is either that the rate is higher now or that it was higher the entire time. More testing didn't create positives from thin air.
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: PlatinumGuy on September 16, 2020, 08:34:26 PM
Itís all schools opening. Same phenomenon in Israel, Spain, France, Canada, & others
Title: Re: Lakewood covid cases
Post by: Euclid on September 16, 2020, 08:41:34 PM


I think you're confusing @yelped and @Yard sale