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DansDeals Forum => COVID-19 Discussion Board => Topic started by: yzj on July 30, 2020, 07:11:21 PM

Title: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on July 30, 2020, 07:11:21 PM
https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

Can any places other than China keep up social distancing protocols for another 15 months? Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on July 30, 2020, 07:15:12 PM
Bunch of boich svaros.
There has never been this much money thrown at making and distributing a vaccine before.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: mmgfarb on July 30, 2020, 07:21:44 PM
Bunch of boich svaros.
There has never been this much money thrown at making and distributing a vaccine before.
Agreed. We've never even had a vaccine start stage 3 trials this early before.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on July 30, 2020, 08:18:34 PM
Agreed. We've never even had a vaccine start stage 3 trials this early before.
True but there are still a lot of hurdles.
https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/merck-ceo-ken-frazier-speaks-about-a-covid-cure-racism-and-why-leaders-need-to-walk-the-talk
 I think when people tell the public that there's going to be a vaccine by the end of 2020, for example, I think they do a grave disservice to the public.

Some are saying mid 2021 but thats still the better part of a year.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24U0WN
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: lcm on July 30, 2020, 11:40:23 PM


Bunch of boich svaros
Gold!

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on July 30, 2020, 11:56:09 PM
Bunch of boich svaros.
There has never been this much money thrown at making and distributing a vaccine before.
If anything, thinking that lots of money = vaccine in a few months when its never been done in less than four years is a boich sevara. Here what some who have been in the vaccine industry for decades have to say about it:
https://www.cgdev.org/blog/vaccine-preliminary-results-here-why-we-need-exercise-caution

https://theconversation.com/fast-covid-19-vaccine-timelines-are-unrealistic-and-put-the-integrity-of-scientists-at-risk-139824

This NYT article is older but it gives some insight into the process:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on August 03, 2020, 05:40:57 AM
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/coronavirus-vaccine-will-not-change-world-right-away/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on August 03, 2020, 08:17:22 AM
Time for a poll. Will there be an effective vaccine widely available in the US by 12/31/2020?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on August 03, 2020, 10:53:16 AM
Time for a poll. Will there be an effective vaccine widely available in the US by 12/31/2020?

For every quarter after 12/31/2020, the likelihood increases dramatically.

You need to define widely available, where and how many doses distributed by that date?

My guess is there will be something in the US that's FDA approved by 2/15/2020, possibly by 12/31/2020, but not necessarily 100m doses distributed by that date.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on August 03, 2020, 11:16:22 AM
For every quarter after 12/31/2020, the likelihood increases dramatically.

You need to define widely available, where and how many doses distributed by that date?

My guess is there will be something in the US that's FDA approved by 2/15/2020, possibly by 12/31/2020, but not necessarily 100m doses distributed by that date.

Widely available = enough to remove all commerce and lifestyle restrictions nationwide (or in other words, having the entire country act as if they live in WB, BP, CH or KJ).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yard sale on August 03, 2020, 11:40:48 AM
Widely available = enough to remove all commerce and lifestyle restrictions nationwide (or in other words, having the entire country act as if they live in WB, BP, CH or KJ).
Id put money down that that wont happen before summer 2021 at the very earliest.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on August 03, 2020, 11:58:18 AM
Widely available = enough to remove all commerce and lifestyle restrictions nationwide (or in other words, having the entire country act as if they live in WB, BP, CH or KJ).

Even if you had 300m doses manufactured and ready for distribution, it would take at least a month to vaccinate 300m people, especially if it's a multi-dose vaccine.

Also keep in mind that a vaccine takes time to build up immunity. My guess is if there was a widely distributed vaccine out there, people would be much more lax even before the majority of any given population was considered immune due to vaccination.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on August 03, 2020, 12:01:44 PM
Id put money down that that wont happen before summer 2021 at the very earliest.

Interesting opinion coming from you. So, how does one bet on this? If I was a betting person I would bet against you. I would bet that by the end of 1h 2020 there will certainly be an FDA approved and distributed (100m+ doses in distribution centers/warehouses) vaccine in the US.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Buruch on August 03, 2020, 12:09:48 PM
Aren't they already mass producing the 2 main candidates, so they're ready for distribution as soon as they're FDA cleared? Doesn't phase 3 of those trials end in about 3 months? No guarantee either of them pan out, but if they do, the vaccine should be ready November/December.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on August 03, 2020, 12:20:32 PM
I don't think vaccine will be available to the public until mid-to-late Jan 21. I think the volume will depend on the election. I think Trump will throw his entire stockpile at the public as quickly as possible, while a Biden administration may take a more cautious approach.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on August 03, 2020, 12:41:24 PM
Interesting opinion coming from you. So, how does one bet on this? If I was a betting person I would bet against you. I would bet that by the end of 1h 2020 there will certainly be an FDA approved and distributed (100m+ doses in distribution centers/warehouses) vaccine in the US.

Forget about betting just pick one cutoff date and put the poll up there. Only two options, by cutoff date, or after cutoff date.

I'll even redefine widely available for you: available for anyone in the US indicating they would like to get vaccinated to get it within 2 weeks of their request.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on August 03, 2020, 12:45:49 PM
Forget about betting just pick one cutoff date and put the poll up there. Only two options, by cutoff date, or after cutoff date.

I'll even redefine widely available for you: available for anyone in the US indicating they would like to get vaccinated to get it within 2 weeks of their request.
I would add a 3rd option, around cutoff date.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on August 03, 2020, 12:54:27 PM
I'll even redefine widely available for you: available for anyone in the US indicating they would like to get vaccinated to get it within 2 weeks of their request.

100m doses in the US might be available long before the above, and would still be a major game changer.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on August 03, 2020, 01:56:36 PM
100m doses in the US might be available long before the above, and would still be a major game changer.

I don't see a major difference between 100MM doses and the scenario I described. Many who have had the virus won't rush to get a vaccine. Many won't rush to vaccinate children (initially).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yard sale on August 05, 2020, 12:41:52 AM
Aren't they already mass producing the 2 main candidates, so they're ready for distribution as soon as they're FDA cleared? Doesn't phase 3 of those trials end in about 3 months? No guarantee either of them pan out, but if they do, the vaccine should be ready November/December.

https://www.ft.com/content/a544c0de-7274-4831-b164-6059cd68d15c
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yard sale on August 07, 2020, 05:27:40 PM
Fauci doesnt think a vaccine will put an end to it.
He also reiterated that the coronavirus may never be eliminated, but world leaders can work together to bring the virus down to "low levels."

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/07/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-says-chances-of-it-being-highly-effective-is-not-great.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on August 10, 2020, 08:53:04 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-10/most-americans-won-t-be-able-to-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine-until-well-into-2021
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on August 11, 2020, 07:06:44 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/putin-says-russia-has-registered-world-s-first-covid-19-vaccine
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: kosherjid on August 11, 2020, 04:06:37 PM
Bill Gates is behind the vaccine ? It will be able to change the DNS of the person being vaccinated ? Anyone heard about it ?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on August 11, 2020, 04:09:48 PM
Bill Gates is behind the vaccine ? It will be able to change the DNS of the person being vaccinated ? Anyone heard about it ?

DNS or DNA?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on August 11, 2020, 04:14:52 PM
DNS or DNA?
Definitely the DNS to point them away from Google servers.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: kosherjid on August 11, 2020, 04:23:33 PM
DNS or DNA?
[/quote

DNA - I heard this today. ]
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on August 11, 2020, 04:25:36 PM
Definitely the DNS to point them away from Google servers.

And that can be administered very fast to billions of people, as it can be done remotely.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on August 11, 2020, 05:09:24 PM
And that can be administered very fast to billions of people, as it can be done remotely.
And it takes effect anywhere in the world, within 24 hours!
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on August 11, 2020, 05:12:53 PM
And it takes effect anywhere in the world, within 24 hours!
No propagation delays!
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on August 11, 2020, 05:16:57 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-11/putin-says-russia-has-registered-world-s-first-covid-19-vaccine
Ya know, its weird when a vaccine side effect says that some people reported that they experienced their conversations mysteriously winding up on Russian bot sites.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: grodnoking on August 11, 2020, 05:19:07 PM
DNS or DNA?
Freudian Slip.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on August 11, 2020, 06:14:16 PM
No propagation delays!
Did you say propoganda?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yard sale on August 14, 2020, 01:55:23 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/covid-19-shaping-up-to-be-battle-for-years-even-with-vaccine/ar-BB17VVTN
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on September 22, 2020, 02:07:44 PM
Pfizer will know if their vaccine is approved within 5 weeks and manufacture 1.3 billion doses this year

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on September 22, 2020, 03:06:29 PM
Pfizer will know if their vaccine is approved within 5 weeks and manufacture 1.3 billion doses this year

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

The cited article says they'll have that many does by the end of 2021, not this year. Also, it says they'll know if it works as soon as October. That doesn't mean they'll know if it's approved at all, and "as soon as" doesn't guarantee that the timeline could also be later.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on September 22, 2020, 03:59:56 PM
The cited article says they'll have that many does by the end of 2021, not this year. Also, it says they'll know if it works as soon as October. That doesn't mean they'll know if it's approved at all, and "as soon as" doesn't guarantee that the timeline could also be later.
You are correct, I skimmed the page too quickly
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on September 22, 2020, 04:25:59 PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8761493/FDA-make-harder-COVID-19-vaccines-approved.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yard sale on September 22, 2020, 04:48:10 PM

(https://i.postimg.cc/HsYXNHqY/3858-B760-4-CC5-48-ED-931-E-DBABAA9-BFC6-F.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: moko on September 22, 2020, 07:18:54 PM
If the vaccine rollout looks anything like the testing situation in many places, we'll get the country vaccinated by 2025.
I tried to get a test today due to some mild symptoms but no dice.
My doctor couldn't get a test scheduled in office until Friday.
Ditto for the 4 urgent care centers that I tried which offer "walk-in" "no apt needed". Apparently you " walk-in" after you schedule a virtual appt with one of their "doctors" and then your assigned a slot to "walk-in"  "no appointment required" after you go through that. The earliest they have available is Thursday afternoon....

Way to go Charlie....
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on September 22, 2020, 08:30:39 PM
If the vaccine rollout looks anything like the testing situation in many places, we'll get the country vaccinated by 2025.
I tried to get a test today due to some mild symptoms but no dice.
My doctor couldn't get a test scheduled in office until Friday.
Ditto for the 4 urgent care centers that I tried which offer "walk-in" "no apt needed". Apparently you " walk-in" after you schedule a virtual appt with one of their "doctors" and then your assigned a slot to "walk-in"  "no appointment required" after you go through that. The earliest they have available is Thursday afternoon....

Way to go Charlie....
Its really easy to get tested in Lakewood. Sounds like a local issue.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on September 23, 2020, 11:50:03 AM
Johnson & Johnson is beginning a huge final study to try to prove if a single-dose COVID-19 vaccine can protect against the virus.

The study starting Wednesday will be one of the worlds largest coronavirus vaccine studies so far, testing the shot in 60,000 volunteers in the U.S., South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.

J&Js vaccine could offer an advantage in distribution over those inoculations, which require vaccination sites to ensure recipients return for their second dose. The company also said its vaccine can be stored at refrigerator temperatures for three months, far longer than the Pfizer vaccine that requires deep freezing for long-term storage.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: jack on September 23, 2020, 01:31:43 PM
Is this true I dont know
Message from Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

 "For all my patients:

 I would like to urgently draw your attention to important issues related to the upcoming Covid-19 vaccination.  For the first time in the history of vaccination, so-called next-generation mRNA vaccines directly intervene in the genetic material of the patient and thus change the individual genetic material, which represents genetic manipulation, something that has been prohibited and  hitherto considered criminal.  This intervention can be compared to that of genetically manipulated foods, which is also highly controversial.  Even if the media and politicians currently trivialize the problem and even mindlessly cry out for a new type of vaccine to return to normality, this vaccination is problematic in terms of health, morals and ethics and also in terms of genetic damage that, unlike  of the damage caused by previous vaccines will now be irreversible and irreparable.

 Dear patients, after an unprecedented mRNA vaccine, you will no longer be able to treat the symptoms of the vaccine in a complementary way.  They will have to live with the consequences, because they can no longer be cured simply by removing toxins from the human body, just as you cannot cure a person with a genetic defect such as Down syndrome, Klinefelter syndrome, Turner syndrome, disease  genetic cardiac arrest, hemophilia, cystic fibrosis, Rett syndrome, etc.), because the genetic defect is forever!

 This clearly means: if a vaccination symptom develops after an mRNA vaccination, neither I nor any other therapist can help it, because the damage caused by the vaccination will be genetically irreversible.  In my opinion, these new vaccines represent a crime against humanity that has never been committed in such a great way in history.  As Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, an experienced physician said: Actually, this "promising vaccine" for the vast majority of people is actually banned because it is genetic manipulation! "

 The vaccine, developed and endorsed by Anthony Fauci and funded by Bill Gates, used experimental mRNA technology.  Three of the 15 human guinea pigs (20%) experienced a "serious adverse event".
 ...

 Note: The messenger RNA or mRNA is the ribonucleic acid that transfers the genetic code from the DNA of the cell nucleus to a ribosome in the cytoplasm, that is, the one that determines the order in which the amino acids of a protein will join and acts as a template  or standard for the synthesis of said protein.

 Resource:

 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.)

 COVID vaccine = IRREVERSIBLE GENETIC DAMAGE - A CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY.
 [8/25 6:05 p.  m.] +58 414-0750240: CLARIFICATION SO THAT THE POPULATION IS NO MORE DECEIVED:

 IS THERE OR NOT, THE CORONAVIRUS?
 - CLARIFICATION FOR THE CONFUSED:

 *one.  DOES THE VIRUS EXIST? *
 Yes, like many more viruses

 *two.  DOES IT HAVE A CURE? *
 Yes, if you use the appropriate medicines and do not leave your health in the hands of corrupt, mercantile health systems

 *3.  ARE THERE GOOD DOCTORS? *
 Yes and many, some are acting in a low profile giving adequate treatments, others have been more courageous and there are many videos on the networks that talk about these treatments and many have already been threatened, disqualified or silenced.

 *4.  ARE SCIENTISTS INVESTIGATING? *
 Yes and there is a worldwide union summoned and summoning more doctors and scientists called Doctors and Scientists for the truth, to expose the falsity of the handling that they have given to the issue of the bug.

 *5.  IS IT A PANDEMIC? *
 No. The WHO changed the term referring to pandemic before the bug came out to be able to end the pandemic.

 * 6.  IT'S CONTAGIOUS?*
 Yes, like all flu.

 * 7.  IF YOU GIVE ME THE VIRUS, DO YOU MEAN THAT I'M GOING TO DIE? *
 No. If you get symptoms, you just have to take the appropriate medicine from the first day (boost your immune system, take anti-inflammatory and anti-flu) and heal yourself at home.

 * 8.  CAN IT BE PREVENTED? *
 Yes, being clean as you should have always been and maintaining a high immune system, you also have: Ozone therapy, Chlorine Dioxide with the preventive protocol

 * 9.  ARE THE FIGURES OF CONTAGED AND DEAD BY THE VIRUS CERTAIN? *
 No. In the USA it was discovered that any given figure would actually be 10% of that figure because they have caused deaths from other diseases caused by the virus and the tests are not reliable, they give false positives.

 * 10.  ARE ASYMPTOMS REAL CASES OF POSITIVES? *
 The human being has many microorganisms and viruses in the body and that does not mean that you are a person or sick or infectious or that you have the virus, however the viruses that are supposedly "so aggressive" show some symptoms in patients because the body releases  alarms of an intruder (fever, headache, vomiting, etc.) and according to Koch's theory the answer is NO.

 *eleven.  WAS THE VIRUS CREATED? *
 Yes, in a laboratory.

 * 13.  FOR WHAT PURPOSE? *
 To be the excuse to restrict freedoms, change the current economic system for a more oppressive / enslaving one, frighten, blind herd obedience

 * 14.  Many countries are part of that malicious plan? *
 Yes

 *fifteen.  WILL WE GET OUT OF THIS? *
 Yes.  And all those who have contributed to the deaths and the NWO plan will fall and pay what they have to assume.

 * 16.  SHOULD I BE AFRAID? *
 No. Fear lowers your immune system and makes you mentally controllable.

 * 17.  IS THE MEDIA PART OF THE PLAN? *
 Yes.  The owners of the media are the same, the cabal controls the pharmaceutical industry, health, the media and they arm everything as they need, this is called mind control.

 * 18.  WHAT SHOULD I DO?*
 You protect yourself and if you get sick you already know how to heal yourself, at home or with your trusted doctor, not committed to the abandonment protocol.

 * 19.  SHOULD I GET VACCINATED? *
 No. You don't need it if you stay healthy, vaccines bring chemicals, heavy metals and a series of "bugs" that are only going to affect your health more in the medium and long term both physically and mentally.  It is your body and it is your right to decide on it and on your physical and mental health.  Would you trust a vaccine after a virus has been created to wipe out humanity?

 *twenty.  IS THIS A WAR? *
 Yes.!  -And we will be victorious, stick together and wake up other people by giving a lot of information.

 Copied ... pasted
  Do it you too !!!

 "Forced to cover me 😷 but not to shut up."
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on September 23, 2020, 01:36:32 PM
You forgot to add: FORWARD THIS TO 10 PEOPLE OR YOUR CAT WILL EAT YOUR PHONE.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yitzgar on September 23, 2020, 01:52:17 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on September 23, 2020, 02:01:27 PM
RFK Jr is an anti vaxxer troll.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on September 23, 2020, 08:10:01 PM
https://news.yahoo.com/vaccination-effort-will-not-be-complete-until-july-cdc-director-says-191827166.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: moko on September 23, 2020, 08:18:08 PM
https://news.yahoo.com/vaccination-effort-will-not-be-complete-until-july-cdc-director-says-191827166.html
cdc director is a fool and moron.
He has absolutely no clue what's going on.
He can't even get testing straight after 6 months.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on September 25, 2020, 04:49:51 PM
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/25/how-covid-19-pandemic-ends-421122
Experts thing its likely a couple years before we are back to normal.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yard sale on October 01, 2020, 03:33:18 PM
Some really nasty side effects being reported but seems to be short lived. Its still bound to make some people think twice before getting the vaccine.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/01/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-participants-exhaustion-fever-headaches.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on October 01, 2020, 03:43:34 PM
Some really nasty side effects being reported but seems to be short lived. Its still bound to make some people think twice before getting the vaccine.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/01/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-participants-exhaustion-fever-headaches.html
Better than a week in bed and with long lasting side effects of getting Covid.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on October 01, 2020, 03:48:31 PM
Some really nasty side effects being reported but seems to be short lived. Its still bound to make some people think twice before getting the vaccine.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/01/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-participants-exhaustion-fever-headaches.html
Not saying it's not true...but 5 people out of 40K who are getting live vaccines (if these people even got live vaccines)...I'd be more interested in the total study, not anecdotal evidence
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yard sale on October 01, 2020, 03:49:56 PM
Better than a week in bed and with long lasting side effects of getting Covid.
Or you can let the rest of the population get the vaccine for you and avoid both.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yard sale on October 01, 2020, 03:56:47 PM
Not saying it's not true...but 5 people out of 40K who are getting live vaccines (if these people even got live vaccines)...I'd be more interested in the total study, not anecdotal evidence
These are reactogenic vaccines. They are expected to produce side effects and that is what is being observed. Its widespread and they can be painful but are not dangerous.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/covid-19-vaccines-may-cause-mild-side-effects-experts-say-stressing-need-for-education-not-alarm/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on October 01, 2020, 04:37:34 PM
Better than a week in bed and with long lasting side effects of getting Covid.
Do we know anything about long lasting side effects of a brand new vaccine?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on October 01, 2020, 07:27:06 PM
Do we know anything about long lasting side effects of a brand new vaccine?
Ok.  ::)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on October 01, 2020, 07:31:54 PM
and I am NOT an anti-vaxxer

... but I am curious to hear about the difference between other vaccines back when they were brand new, and the same (or updated?) ones 3-5 years later
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on October 01, 2020, 07:38:58 PM
and I am NOT an anti-vaxxer

... but I am curious to hear about the difference between other vaccines back when they were brand new, and the same (or updated?) ones 3-5 years later
Fair enough.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on October 17, 2020, 08:52:05 PM
https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

Can any places other than China keep up social distancing protocols for another 15 months? Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/17/us/coronavirus-pandemic-fatigue.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on October 26, 2020, 04:09:35 PM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-fatigue-is-realand-its-spreading-11603704601?mod=mhp
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on October 31, 2020, 10:26:45 PM
UPDATE: There are currently 6 (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html?name=styln-coronavirus-vaccines&region=TOP_BANNER&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=Article&impression_id=b7972270-1be8-11eb-9c26-e1b6d512f4d8&variant=1_Show) vaccines already approved for early/limited use in several countries including the UAE, Russia, and China
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on October 31, 2020, 11:26:32 PM
UPDATE: There are currently 6 (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html?name=styln-coronavirus-vaccines&region=TOP_BANNER&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=Article&impression_id=b7972270-1be8-11eb-9c26-e1b6d512f4d8&variant=1_Show) vaccines already approved for early/limited use in several countries including the UAE, Russia, and China

https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/29/it-may-be-time-to-reset-expectations-on-when-well-get-a-covid-19-vaccine/

While its unfortunate, I dont find it surprising that the timeline is being moved back, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesotas Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy. Clinical trials like this routinely have unexpected occurrences that delay planned timelines. Its just not unexpected.

As for the idea that all Americans will have had a chance to be vaccinated by the early spring, Osterholm suggested it is going to take longer.

For many of us, we never thought that that was doable, he said. I commend Operation Warp Speed for what it has accomplished in the time it has, but to have vaccinated the U.S. population by March in my mind was never a realistic goal.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201001133219.htm

The average date given by 28 experts in the field of vaccine development is September/October 2021. Very different that the dates that those pressured by political considerations are giving. The survey did take place in late June but was published in October. I dont think there have been any dramatic breakthroughs that have changed their opinion.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 01, 2020, 01:27:17 PM
https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/29/it-may-be-time-to-reset-expectations-on-when-well-get-a-covid-19-vaccine/

While its unfortunate, I dont find it surprising that the timeline is being moved back, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesotas Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy. Clinical trials like this routinely have unexpected occurrences that delay planned timelines. Its just not unexpected.

As for the idea that all Americans will have had a chance to be vaccinated by the early spring, Osterholm suggested it is going to take longer.

For many of us, we never thought that that was doable, he said. I commend Operation Warp Speed for what it has accomplished in the time it has, but to have vaccinated the U.S. population by March in my mind was never a realistic goal.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201001133219.htm

The average date given by 28 experts in the field of vaccine development is September/October 2021. Very different that the dates that those pressured by political considerations are giving. The survey did take place in late June but was published in October. I dont think there have been any dramatic breakthroughs that have changed their opinion.
This survey is quite dated. Do you honestly believe they would maintain their answers to this question?
Quote
2. Question: When will a field study with at least 5000 participants report results?

Answers:

best guess = March 2021 (average)
soonest = December 2020 (average)
latest = July 2021 (average)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 01, 2020, 04:27:21 PM
I havent seen otherwise from any reputable expert in the field. Just about every one of them is pointing to summer or fall 2021 or later for a rollout to the general population. Have you seen otherwise?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 01, 2020, 04:35:52 PM
I havent seen otherwise from any reputable expert in the field. Just about every one of them is pointing to summer or fall 2021 or later for a rollout to the general population. Have you seen otherwise?
Did you see the quote I questioned? I doubt youll find anyone alive who still thinks itll be past December
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Afrages6 on November 01, 2020, 05:41:24 PM
Did you see the quote I questioned? I doubt youll find anyone alive who still thinks itll be past December
Well Cuomo called the vaccine distribution plan racist today and floated the idea of suing the federal government about it. So that may side track things.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 01, 2020, 07:12:30 PM
Did you see the quote I questioned? I doubt youll find anyone alive who still thinks itll be past December
That hasnt changed the overall outlook of the experts. Heres another one:

https://themedialine.org/top-stories/as-israel-begins-human-trials-experts-warn-covid-vaccine-still-long-way-off/

Shapiras timeline of next summer is the best-case scenario, according to Izbicki, with the realistic case taking longer, and the worst-case much longer, at one-and-a-half to two years.

[An available vaccine] is definitely going to take longer because we need data, we need statistics [and] we need patients. Its not a small trial, added Izbicki.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Afrages6 on November 01, 2020, 07:15:27 PM
That hasnt changed the overall outlook of the experts. Heres another one:

https://themedialine.org/top-stories/as-israel-begins-human-trials-experts-warn-covid-vaccine-still-long-way-off/

Shapiras timeline of next summer is the best-case scenario, according to Izbicki, with the realistic case taking longer, and the worst-case much longer, at one-and-a-half to two years.

[An available vaccine] is definitely going to take longer because we need data, we need statistics [and] we need patients. Its not a small trial, added Izbicki.
Thats only referring to Israels own vaccine.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 01, 2020, 08:13:55 PM
If the study is outdated there ought to be updated info out there. Can you find a quote of a single expert in the vaccine  field who thinks the mass rollout will be long before summer 2021? I havent found any.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 08:16:01 PM
If the study is outdated there ought to be updated info out there. Can you find a quote of a single expert in the vaccine  field who thinks the mass rollout will be long before summer 2021? I havent found any.
Is the CEO of Pfizer not an expert enough?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 01, 2020, 08:39:08 PM
If the study is outdated there ought to be updated info out there. Can you find a quote of a single expert in the vaccine  field who thinks the mass rollout will be long before summer 2021? I havent found any.
The link you posted quoted one or two

Quote
Just last Friday, Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for policy for Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, reiterated the administrations projection that all Americans who want to be vaccinated against Covid-19 will have that opportunity by the early spring.

We believe before the end of this year we will be able to vaccinate our most vulnerable citizens, Mango told journalists in an update on the work of Operation Warp Speed, the governments effort to fast-track Covid-19 vaccines, drugs, and diagnostics.

By the end of January, we believe well be able to vaccinate all seniors. By the March and April timeframe, we believe well be able to vaccinate any American who desires a vaccination, Mango said.

Quote
But Pfizer, which has been one of the most aggressive players in the vaccine race, had earlier predicted it would know by the end of September if its vaccine worked an estimate that was later pushed back to late October. The company now projects that it could apply to the FDA for an emergency use authorization for the vaccine, which it is developing with BioNTech, in mid-November.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 01, 2020, 09:55:57 PM
Well Cuomo called the vaccine distribution plan racist today and floated the idea of suing the federal government about it. So that may side track things.

Politics. The moron doesn't like the vaccine because he thinks it makes the Trump administration look good. He'd play this card even if it results (heaven forbid) in more deaths, just to advance his agenda. The fact that only democratic governors will question and try to stall the vaccine isn't scientific, it's all politics.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 08, 2020, 04:12:15 PM
Pfizer believes it will distribute 40 million doses in the US this year through its own non-government channels. Data (followed by FDA EUA within 5-7 days) expected any time soon, could be available this week.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-sidelines-us-government-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-plan-favor-its-own-reports

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/pfizer-designed-new-container-and-plans-to-tap-shipping-companies-for-covid-19
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 08, 2020, 04:52:00 PM
Pfizer believes it will distribute 40 million doses in the US this year through its own non-government channels. Data (followed by FDA EUA within 5-7 days) expected any time soon, could be available this week.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-sidelines-us-government-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-plan-favor-its-own-reports

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/pfizer-designed-new-container-and-plans-to-tap-shipping-companies-for-covid-19
Its a two dose vaccine. If everything goes perfect and there are also no distribution bottlenecks thats enough for less than 7% of the population. If that goes well it will still be well into 2021 for full distribution. The Pfizer vaccine is aiming for 60% effectiveness. At 60% even if enough vaccine were to be produced and distributed and if every single us citizen agreed to be vaccinated you still wouldnt achieve herd immunity which is assumed to be north of 70%. And the reality is that surveys in the US and Canada show that half of respondents would refuse to take the vaccine. That would mean that near 100% availability would result in under 30% population immunity.

The bottom line is that a full vaccine rollout will be a help, but it will most likely still result in continuing waves of covid that are something like Lakewood second wave vs Lakewood first wave. Perhaps with more of a track record of safety and efficacy as we get toward the end of 2021 there will be less reluctance to vaccinate but that remains to be seen. Dont  go burning those masks just yet.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 08, 2020, 06:07:38 PM
Its a two dose vaccine. If everything goes perfect and there are also no distribution bottlenecks thats enough for less than 7% of the population. If that goes well it will still be well into 2021 for full distribution. The Pfizer vaccine is aiming for 60% effectiveness. At 60% even if enough vaccine were to be produced and distributed and if every single us citizen agreed to be vaccinated you still wouldnt achieve herd immunity which is assumed to be north of 70%. And the reality is that surveys in the US and Canada show that half of respondents would refuse to take the vaccine. That would mean that near 100% availability would result in under 30% population immunity.

The bottom line is that a full vaccine rollout will be a help, but it will most likely still result in continuing waves of covid that are something like Lakewood second wave vs Lakewood first wave. Perhaps with more of a track record of safety and efficacy as we get toward the end of 2021 there will be less reluctance to vaccinate but that remains to be seen. Dont  go burning those masks just yet.

If you can vaccinate the 20m most risky people (and Im not suggesting Pfizer can) then COVID will be a smaller problem already. If we get the same from 1-2 other vaccine candidate, with 100m + doses available by years end, it wont take until 2021 to make a significant dent in the current COVID outbreak.

If the first dose confers limited immunity fairly quickly then vaccinating areas with small outbreaks will help mitigate spread as well.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on November 08, 2020, 06:11:48 PM
If you can vaccinate the 20m most risky people (and Im not suggesting Pfizer can) then COVID will be a smaller problem already. If we get the same from 1-2 other vaccine candidate, with 100m + doses available by years end, it wont take until 2021 to make a significant dent in the current COVID outbreak.

If the first dose confers limited immunity fairly quickly then vaccinating areas with small outbreaks will help mitigate spread as well.

I wouldn't start with the most high-risk people. I would start with very active people in the 20-40 demo who haven't had the virus set . If we can't achieve herd immunity, at least let the vaccine work to limit the spread as much as possible. It has an added benefit of giving the vaccine to people who are most likely to be able to handle adverse effects, should they arise.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 08, 2020, 07:31:21 PM
The bottom line is that a full vaccine rollout will be a help, but it will most likely still result in continuing waves of covid that are something like Lakewood second wave vs Lakewood first wave. Perhaps with more of a track record of safety and efficacy as we get toward the end of 2021 there will be less reluctance to vaccinate but that remains to be seen. Dont  go burning those masks just yet.
Dont forget there is also already some population immunity even before a vaccine.
If you can vaccinate the 20m most risky people (and Im not suggesting Pfizer can) then COVID will be a smaller problem already. If we get the same from 1-2 other vaccine candidate, with 100m + doses available by years end, it wont take until 2021 to make a significant dent in the current COVID outbreak.

If the first dose confers limited immunity fairly quickly then vaccinating areas with small outbreaks will help mitigate spread as well.
I wouldn't start with the most high-risk people. I would start with very active people in the 20-40 demo who haven't had the virus set . If we can't achieve herd immunity, at least let the vaccine work to limit the spread as much as possible. It has an added benefit of giving the vaccine to people who are most likely to be able to handle adverse effects, should they arise.
Both of your ideas have merit, and at the end of the day its a tough decision. Some would also say that health care workers should have the highest priority, as that would help ease staffing problems and equipment shortage issues.

Regardless, there is no doubt that efficiently targeting even a relatively small portion of the population has the potential to have an outsized impact on the spread and deadliness of outbreaks. While I agree its not quite mask burning time, the case can be made that coupled with better medical awareness, lots of testing, and lighter hospital loads COVID wont be quite as big a threat in the US in just another month or two.

It might be enough for even the high risk to be able to mostly re-enter society safely, as long as they maintain minimal restrictions.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 08, 2020, 07:40:21 PM


While I agree its not quite mask burning time

I will be just as happy as everyone else to be done with masks but I don't get the need to burn them.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yesitsme on November 08, 2020, 07:42:19 PM
now that plastic bags are banned in NY and NJ I'm wondering how much longer it will take till they ban masks, the litter it makes
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on November 08, 2020, 08:05:10 PM
now that plastic bags are banned in NY and NJ I'm wondering how much longer it will take till they ban masks, the litter it makes

If its made of biodegradable material (no idea if they are or aren't) they might argue that this type of litter is fine  ::).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 08, 2020, 10:03:03 PM
I wouldn't start with the most high-risk people. I would start with very active people in the 20-40 demo who haven't had the virus set . If we can't achieve herd immunity, at least let the vaccine work to limit the spread as much as possible. It has an added benefit of giving the vaccine to people who are most likely to be able to handle adverse effects, should they arise.
Hard to imagine a scenario where the first priority isn't nursing homes and healthcare workers. It would seem the challenge is more about distribution than manufacturing, so I would assume anybody who would be willing to pay a little bit for somebody to inject it will be able to get it fairly early.

I think there's a good chance the government will have to pay people to take it when there are more doses than volunteers
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 08, 2020, 10:37:43 PM
Then theres the minor issue of Pfizers vaccine needing cold storage of -94F. Thats going to be a logistical nightmare when it comes to distribution.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 08, 2020, 10:51:32 PM
Then theres the minor issue of Pfizers vaccine needing cold storage of -94F. Thats going to be a logistical nightmare when it comes to distribution.
I think that's fairly common in food distribution warehouses, but I wonder what kind of point-of-care facility would have that capacity.  It has to stay at that temperature all the way until injection? 24h would make all the difference...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 08, 2020, 10:59:16 PM
I think that's fairly common in food distribution warehouses, but I wonder what kind of point-of-care facility would have that capacity.  It has to stay at that temperature all the way until injection? 24h would make all the difference...
From the article I linked
Quote
Late last month, Pfizer outlined an ambitious vaccine distribution effort centered on sites in Michigan and Belgium. Because the mRNA vaccine has be stored at minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit, the plan includes shipping containers that can keep doses at that temperature for 10 days. And the company has lined up additional locations in Wisconsin and Germany for storage.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 08, 2020, 11:19:43 PM
From the article I linked
Capitalism at it's finest. Long live America
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 09, 2020, 12:17:05 AM
I think that's fairly common in food distribution warehouses, but I wonder what kind of point-of-care facility would have that capacity.  It has to stay at that temperature all the way until injection? 24h would make all the difference...

I dont think it has to be that cold until injection, I recall reading relatively warmer temperatures (but still much colder than commercial freezers) for a few days prior to injection.

In any case this will be a hinderance towards targeting certain demographics with limited vaccine supplies, unless you can get them to all come to the same location at around the same time.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 09, 2020, 12:17:44 AM
Capitalism at it's finest. Long live America

Or: Greed that will destroy us and cause lives to be lost. #latestagecapitalism
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 09, 2020, 04:36:40 AM
I dont think it has to be that cold until injection, I recall reading relatively warmer temperatures (but still much colder than commercial freezers) for a few days prior to injection.

In any case this will be a hinderance towards targeting certain demographics with limited vaccine supplies, unless you can get them to all come to the same location at around the same time.
Its 24 hours in the fridge and -94F or less until that point.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/pfizer-win-covid-vaccine-race-distributing-matter/story%3fid=72862724
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 09, 2020, 04:37:09 AM
https://www.laboratoryequipment.com/569702-Hurdle-1-Develop-COVID-19-Vaccine-Hurdle-2-Deliver-it-at-Ultra-low-Temperatures/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 09, 2020, 07:42:43 AM
Its 24 hours in the fridge and -94F or less until that point.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/pfizer-win-covid-vaccine-race-distributing-matter/story%3fid=72862724
Fascinating. From the article
Quote
Pfizer said it would be partnering with UPS to create mobile "freezer farms" that contain 48,000 vaccines and are strategically placed throughout the country for swift distribution.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 09, 2020, 08:00:02 AM
90% effective! Far better than they were anticipating. Has the potential to be a game changer. Id love to eat crow on this one.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27P1CT
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 09, 2020, 08:00:38 AM
Its 24 hours in the fridge and -94F or less until that point.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/pfizer-win-covid-vaccine-race-distributing-matter/story%3fid=72862724

What percentage of doses will go to waste because they expired past said 24 hour refrigeration? This will especially be a problem if a higher percentage of people than expected wont trust the vaccine.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 09, 2020, 08:06:23 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/vHv5Y9FJ/6-EA5092-B-33-C5-4-F1-C-B3-B7-02-EF8-E557-AE1.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: JMHO on November 09, 2020, 08:07:15 AM
Fascinating. From the article

Pfizer said it would be partnering with UPS to create mobile "freezer farms" that contain 48,000 vaccines and are strategically placed throughout the country for swift distribution.
Hmmm, I wonder why they wouldn't use USPS lol
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 09, 2020, 08:08:39 AM
90% effective! Far better than they were anticipating. Has the potential to be a game changer. Id love to eat crow on this one.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27P1CT
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

Unreal. This is undoubtedly the biggest news in the fight against COVID since March. If this would have been announced on November 2 I wonder how it would have impacted the election..
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 09, 2020, 08:10:27 AM
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

Unreal. This is undoubtedly the biggest news in the fight against COVID since March. If this would have been announced on November 2 I wonder how it would have impacted the election..
Or if people actually believed Trump and the democratic candidate and Co. wouldnt have down played it.....
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Proisrael on November 09, 2020, 08:13:01 AM
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

Unreal. This is undoubtedly the biggest news in the fight against COVID since March. If this would have been announced on November 2 I wonder how it would have impacted the election..

LOL you think its coincidental that it gets announced the 1st business day after he gets elected?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 09, 2020, 08:18:41 AM
LOL you think its coincidental that it gets announced the 1st business day after he gets elected?

Wasnt this data released by the pharmaceutical companies? You think they prefer a D in the WH?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on November 09, 2020, 08:40:27 AM
As predicted by many COVID-19 is ending after the election.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on November 09, 2020, 10:30:38 AM
What percentage of doses will go to waste because they expired past said 24 hour refrigeration? This will especially be a problem if a higher percentage of people than expected wont trust the vaccine.
I assume in the beginning they'll go to places that can make sure to use 100% of the doses. As time goes on there will be other vaccines that don't need such low temperatures that would be more suitable for rural areas.
Wasnt this data released by the pharmaceutical companies? You think they prefer a D in the WH?
According to the Pfizer executive or spokesperson on WCBS this morning they received the information from an independent review board yesterday afternoon. It's possible the review board held off on the information for a few days because of the election.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: jj1000 on November 09, 2020, 10:34:20 AM
According to the Pfizer executive or spokesperson on WCBS this morning they received the information from an independent review board yesterday afternoon.
Great story, did she have any bridges for sale?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 09, 2020, 11:33:59 AM
Keep in mind there are other vaccines almost ready so it's in Pfizers interest to announce their success as soon as possible.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on November 09, 2020, 01:29:48 PM
Wasnt this data released by the pharmaceutical companies? You think they prefer a D in the WH?

I think that the fact that they lied today and claimed "we were never part of Warp Speed" is an indication that they are acting politically.

If they delayed the announcement, I think the most likely explanation for why is because they knew that Democrats would attack any results announced before the election making it harder for them to move forward.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 09, 2020, 01:39:33 PM
If they delayed the announcement, I think the most likely explanation for why is because they knew that Democrats would attack any results announced before the election making it harder for them to move forward.
+1

Can I just state that while I often disagree with @zh cohen  his analysis is always insightful and often spot on.

👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yitzgar on November 09, 2020, 01:42:30 PM
+1

Can I just state that while I often disagree with @zh cohen  his analysis is always insightful and often spot on.

Awwww
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on November 09, 2020, 01:43:53 PM
I think that the fact that they lied today and claimed "we were never part of Warp Speed" is an indication that they are acting politically.

If they delayed the announcement, I think the most likely explanation for why is because they knew that Democrats would attack any results announced before the election making it harder for them to move forward.
I wouldn't say they're acting politically, rather they're maneuvering in a way so that the most Americans will take their vaccine (they make the most money that way). They need to somehow disconnect themselves politically.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on November 09, 2020, 02:07:05 PM
I think that the fact that they lied today and claimed "we were never part of Warp Speed" is an indication that they are acting politically.

If they delayed the announcement, I think the most likely explanation for why is because they knew that Democrats would attack any results announced before the election making it harder for them to move forward.

It really was the safest play. Don't let either party politicize your product. Hitch yourself to the winner after it's decided, and let the profits flow.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on November 09, 2020, 02:08:00 PM
It really was the safest play. Don't let either party politicize your product. Hitch yourself to the winner after it's decided, and let the profits flow.

This interpretation of their motives (which is the most charitable towards Pfizers) means that Joe Biden (and the Democrats) are responsible for delaying the vaccine by making it clear that they would attack any vaccine that came out before the election.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 09, 2020, 02:11:21 PM
How does lying to avoid giving Trump credit "disconnect themselves politically"?

Even in the most charitable exploring of events, Joe Biden (and the Democrats) are responsible for delaying the announcement of the vaccine by making it clear that they would attack any vaccine that came out before the election.
FTFY

Does the timing of the public announcement impact distribution and approval?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on November 09, 2020, 02:11:26 PM
+1

Can I just state that while I often disagree with @zh cohen  his analysis is always insightful and often spot on.

👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏

Where's the blushing emoji?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on November 09, 2020, 02:12:31 PM
FTFY

Does the timing of the public announcement impact distribution and approval?

Seems like they put off applying for an EUA till today.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on November 09, 2020, 02:12:47 PM
How does lying to avoid giving Trump credit "disconnect themselves politically"?

Even in the most charitable exploring of events, Joe Biden (and the Democrats) are responsible for delaying the vaccine by making it clear that they would attack any vaccine that came out before the election.
How did they lie? They were very clear about what Operation Warp Speed was giving them. They're trying to distance themselves politically as much as possible by being transparent about what the government did to help them. In my reading of it it looks like their assumption is that most Americans feel safer with something that was developed completely by the private sector.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 09, 2020, 02:12:54 PM
Where's the blushing emoji?
😊
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on November 09, 2020, 02:21:05 PM
How did they lie? They were very clear about what Operation Warp Speed was giving them.

The head of vaccine development said (to the NY Times I think)"we were not part of Warp Speed." They are now walking back that statement.

It's interesting that the NY Times printed that claim (that was obviously false to anyone with a memory or access to Google).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 09, 2020, 02:36:50 PM
Seems like they put off applying for an EUA till today.
I believe that to assure safety they are waiting for there to be 2 full months from when participants received their second dose, which would be next week.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on November 09, 2020, 02:40:38 PM
The head of vaccine development said (to the NY Times I think)"we were not part of Warp Speed." They are now walking back that statement.

It's interesting that the NY Times printed that claim (that was obviously false to anyone with a memory or access to Google).
Quote
We were never part of the Warp Speed, she said in an interview on Sunday. We have never taken any money from the U.S. government, or from anyone.
This is the quote I found - this isn't a lie. They still haven't taken any money from the government.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on November 09, 2020, 02:44:18 PM
This is the quote I found - this isn't a lie. They still haven't taken any money from the government.

The first half certainly is. The second half is questionable. (The government didn't write any checks, but they signed a $2Billion contract with them)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on November 09, 2020, 02:48:52 PM
The first half certainly is. The second half is questionable. (The government didn't write any checks, but they signed a $2Billion contract with them)
I'd like to see the full context of this conversation before I jump to say that she lied. Maybe I'm just a trusting person but I find it hard to see a motive why she would lie about something so easily verifiable. To me it sounds like she's putting emphasis on the fact that this is something developed/financed entirely by Pfizer...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on November 09, 2020, 02:57:40 PM
Great story, did she have any bridges for sale?

Are bridges a good asset class to invest in now? Are they in high demand or is there an oversupply?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on November 09, 2020, 04:00:12 PM
Are bridges a good asset class to invest in now? Are they in high demand or is there an oversupply?

People are buying them at an unprecedented rate with no due diligence.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on November 09, 2020, 04:04:24 PM
Are bridges a good asset class to invest in now? Are they in high demand or is there an oversupply?

Well, the fundamentals don't support it, but Portnoy has one, so I'll take 3.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 09, 2020, 10:19:44 PM
For those that remember Wendover's video on covid vaccine distribution, the CDC basically has a plan that if both Pfizer and Moderna get approved, so they can distrubute the Pfizer in the city and the Moderna in less dense areas. I wonder if that's still the case.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 11, 2020, 02:08:27 PM
Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 11, 2020, 02:17:34 PM
Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140

This is a strange bet. He's betting that vaccine news will lead to keep fear than is prudent, which will lead to more infections. However, it's not infections which are bad for the economy-it's fear. Unless he can come up with a model that would indicate further restrictions being placed due to rising infections which are due to falling fear levels, the infections and morbidities themselves, while bad from a health and welfare perspective, are a bit irrelevant from an economic perspective.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 11, 2020, 02:26:00 PM
A hedge isn't a bet.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 11, 2020, 02:47:42 PM
Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140
Hes insuring himself against losses, not betting on it. This hedge is less than a third of the size of his original CDS purchase and is something every hedge fund does regularly. Its in the name.

Then again, its fascinating that he thinks theres reason to assume people will take *less* precautions because theres a vaccine around the corner. Id think the opposite- you can see a more or less defined end game/date.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: CountValentine on November 11, 2020, 03:01:29 PM
A hedge isn't a bad bet.
:)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 11, 2020, 04:19:58 PM
A hedge isn't a bet.
It is when he is buying credit default swaps for companys that he doesnt have a stake in. Thats a bet plain and simple and it paid off big time in the spring. He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. Thats a lot better than you can do at the casinos.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: moish on November 11, 2020, 04:21:55 PM
Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140
He's not always right. Google the Herbalife saga
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 11, 2020, 04:22:38 PM
It is when he is buying credit default swaps for companys that he doesnt have a stake in. Thats a bet plain and simple and it paid off big time in the spring. He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. Thats a lot better than youre likely to do at the casinos.
FTFY
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on November 11, 2020, 04:23:29 PM
He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. Thats a lot better than you can do at the casinos.

Meh. Have CV teach you how to count cards.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 11, 2020, 05:14:43 PM
He's not always right. Google the Herbalife saga
Comes with the territory. Cant make winning bets forever. Paulson made 20 billion on the CDS bets in 2008-2008 and he went downhill after that, closing up shop this year.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 11, 2020, 05:17:15 PM
It is when he is buying credit default swaps for companys that he doesnt have a stake in. Thats a bet plain and simple and it paid off big time in the spring. He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. Thats a lot better than you can do at the casinos.
It's to protect an opposite position in other companies. 27 million only turned into 2.7b because other investments went down. He wasn't betting on the market to crash, he hedged himself in case the market crashes.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Afrages6 on November 11, 2020, 05:32:55 PM
It's to protect an opposite position in other companies. 27 million only turned into 2.7b because other investments went down. He wasn't betting on the market to crash, he hedged himself in case the market crashes.
He was betting on the market to crash. And he helped the crash by going on CNBC and crying about how bad everything was
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 11, 2020, 05:38:45 PM
He was betting on the market to crash. And he helped the crash by going on CNBC and crying about how bad everything was
That was after the crash.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Afrages6 on November 11, 2020, 05:56:24 PM
That was after the crash.
Wrong
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 11, 2020, 05:58:55 PM
It's to protect an opposite position in other companies. 27 million only turned into 2.7b because other investments went down. He wasn't betting on the market to crash, he hedged himself in case the market crashes.
He did view it as an alternative to liquidating all his positions which he was considering doing, but it wasnt just a hedge to mitigate risk; he went into the trade to hit it big and he did. He didnt just stabilize his portfolio. He pulled in double digit returns in both March and April while the market was tanking. Then he liquidated his positions in the swaps, and plowed all the cash into long positions at the lows which resulted in outstanding returns.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 16, 2020, 09:52:02 AM
https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

Can any places other than China keep up social distancing protocols for another 15 months? Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?
The good news is that the vaccine timeline is better than was anticipated. In the US, between Pfizer and Moderna there will be 70 million doses available by years end, enough for 35 million people. Figure on close to 20 million total confirmed infected by years end, along with undiagnosed cases you are easily talking over 20% population immunity, enough to start making a dent in the pandemic. The bad news is that the increasing flare ups and waves part did play out, and will likely get worse before it gets better.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on November 16, 2020, 10:36:08 AM
The good news is that the vaccine timeline is better than was anticipated. In the US, between Pfizer and Moderna there will be 70 million doses available by years end, enough for 35 million people. Figure on close to 20 million total confirmed infected by years end, along with undiagnosed cases you are easily talking over 20% population immunity, enough to start making a dent in the pandemic. The bad news is that the increasing flare ups and waves part did play out, and will likely get worse before it gets better.
More importantly, the vaccine will go to those who are at the greatest risk of dying, significantly reducing the number of deaths.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on November 16, 2020, 10:48:10 AM
More importantly, the vaccine will go to those who are at the greatest risk of dying, significantly reducing the number of deaths.

Personal opinion, I think that's a huge mistake. We should be working on cutting down the Rt, making it less likely for high risk people to come in contact with the virus in the first place.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on November 16, 2020, 11:21:48 AM
Personal opinion, I think that's a huge mistake. We should be working on cutting down the Rt, making it less likely for high risk people to come in contact with the virus in the first place.
Maybe some sort of hybrid, but I don't think it's smart to start with people who are most likely to spread it to young people. College campuses probably have some of the highest Rt, but they're definitely not the place to start distributing the vaccine. Best place to start is probably nursing home and hospital patients and staff.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on November 16, 2020, 11:27:56 AM
Maybe some sort of hybrid, but I don't think it's smart to start with people who are most likely to spread it to young people. College campuses probably have some of the highest Rt, but they're definitely not the place to start distributing the vaccine. Best place to start is probably nursing home and hospital patients and staff.

College campuses are not where I would start. I'd start with people in the 25-45 demo. People whose circles are more likely to be widespread, between work, kids, shuls/churches, and local stores.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on November 16, 2020, 03:27:38 PM
The government didn't write any checks, but they signed a $2Billion contract with them
Here's an explanation on how that contract helped Pfizer.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/moderna-vaccine-data-show-why-warp-speed-helped-pfizer/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 16, 2020, 03:50:22 PM
Maybe some sort of hybrid, but I don't think it's smart to start with people who are most likely to spread it to young people. College campuses probably have some of the highest Rt, but they're definitely not the place to start distributing the vaccine. Best place to start is probably nursing home and hospital patients and staff.
When a college kid tests positive they typically go home. Who catches t from them then?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on November 16, 2020, 03:58:58 PM
When a college kid tests positive they typically go home. Who catches t from them then?
I don't think that's true, they're usually isolated on campus.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 16, 2020, 04:13:28 PM
Some of the debate may be partially based on another difference in beliefs- @avromie7 in general seems to be mostly concerned with immediate deaths, while @Lurker is in general more wary of the virus in general, including long term consequences.

Purely hypothetically: If having the virus shaves 10 years off of the average adults lifespan, then even if the immediate death rate isnt cut as sharply it would be prudent to focus the vaccine on limiting spread more than limiting deaths. If it only impacts vulnerable people significantly while leaving all others mostly unscathed, then it would be wise to move quicker to vaccinate with the aim of limiting immediate deaths than to worry about less consequential spread.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on November 16, 2020, 04:15:18 PM
Some of the debate may be partially based on another difference in beliefs- @avromie7 in general seems to be mostly concerned with immediate deaths, while @Lurker is in general more wary of the virus in general, including long term consequences.

Purely hypothetically: If having the virus shaves 10 years off of the average adults lifespan, then even if the immediate death rate isnt cut as sharply it would be prudent to focus the vaccine on limiting spread more than limiting deaths. If it only impacts vulnerable people significantly while leaving all others mostly unscathed, then it would be wise to move quicker to vaccinate with the aim of limiting immediate deaths than to worry about less consequential spread.
And how could we know?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on November 16, 2020, 04:16:48 PM
Some of the debate may be partially based on another difference in beliefs- @avromie7 in general seems to be mostly concerned with immediate deaths, while @Lurker is in general more wary of the virus in general, including long term consequences.

Purely hypothetically: If having the virus shaves 10 years off of the average adults lifespan, then even if the immediate death rate isnt cut as sharply it would be prudent to focus the vaccine on limiting spread more than limiting deaths. If it only impacts vulnerable people significantly while leaving all others mostly unscathed, then it would be wise to move quicker to vaccinate with the aim of limiting immediate deaths than to worry about less consequential higher spread.

This is generally accurate, especially my views on Covid. However, I am less concerned with 10 years being shaved off the average lifespan and more concerned with the quality of life, regardless of the lifespan. (Respiratory, neurological, fertility, etc... see long-term effects thread.)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 16, 2020, 04:17:36 PM
And how could we know?
Examine the evidence.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 16, 2020, 04:17:48 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/health/moderna-vaccine-results-coronavirus/index.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: CountValentine on November 16, 2020, 04:22:21 PM
I don't think that's true, they're usually isolated on campus.
Source?
I have three kids on my block that should be isolated. They came home because they didn't want to be stuck in a dorm room.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 16, 2020, 04:23:43 PM
Examine the evidence.
How should we examine the evidence about what the effects will be in 10 years from now?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 16, 2020, 04:24:45 PM
I don't think that's true, they're usually isolated on campus.
There is someone I do business with in PA who seems to have just caught it from his kid who tested positive in college.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 16, 2020, 04:27:49 PM
How should we examine the evidence about what the effects will be in 10 years from now?
We can see the impact having the virus had on various systems in the body and use existing knowledge we have to extrapolate. For example, if the virus leads to renal failure, we can extrapolate and calculate the expected lifespan of the average kidney patient.

Thus far, it certainly seems like too many suffer some damage to various systems.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 16, 2020, 04:32:39 PM
We can see the impact having the virus had on various systems in the body and use existing knowledge we have to extrapolate. For example, if the virus leads to renal failure, we can extrapolate and calculate the expected lifespan of the average kidney patient.

Thus far, it certainly seems like too many suffer some damage to various systems.
yet unknown how permanent such damage is.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: CountValentine on November 16, 2020, 04:33:20 PM
There is someone I do business with in PA who seems to have just caught it from his kid who tested positive in college.
I am in shock!!  ;)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on November 16, 2020, 04:33:36 PM
Source?
I have three kids on my block that should be isolated. They came home because they didn't want to be stuck in a dorm room.
There is someone I do business with in PA who seems to have just caught it from his kid who tested positive in college.
I was under the impression that all students who test positive are isolated on site, but maybe they just have that option available and some choose not to use that option. I would hope those who have high risk people living in their house would make sure not to come home.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on November 16, 2020, 04:36:22 PM
I was under the impression that all students who test positive are isolated on site, but maybe they just have that option available and some choose not to use that option. I would hope those who have high risk people living in their house would make sure not to come home.

Yea... I'd hope people have common sense, but we both know the reality there.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on November 16, 2020, 04:37:39 PM
Examine the evidence.
How should we examine the evidence about what the effects will be in 10 years from now?
+1
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: CountValentine on November 16, 2020, 04:38:23 PM
I was under the impression that all students who test positive are isolated on site, but maybe they just have that option available and some choose not to use that option. I would hope those who have high risk people living in their house would make sure not to come home.
Remember we are talking about college kids.  ;)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on November 16, 2020, 04:41:37 PM
Some of the debate may be partially based on another difference in beliefs- @avromie7 in general seems to be mostly concerned with immediate deaths, while @Lurker is in general more wary of the virus in general, including long term consequences.

Purely hypothetically: If having the virus shaves 10 years off of the average adults lifespan, then even if the immediate death rate isnt cut as sharply it would be prudent to focus the vaccine on limiting spread more than limiting deaths. If it only impacts vulnerable people significantly while leaving all others mostly unscathed, then it would be wise to move quicker to vaccinate with the aim of limiting immediate deaths than to worry about less consequential spread.
Careful. Thats what made Sweden decide to refuse hospitalization and treatment to the elderly early in the pandemic. Socialized medicine is very into QALYs using it as a basis to deny treatment to the elderly and terminally ill, rationalizing that resources are better used on younger healthier individuals.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on November 16, 2020, 04:50:23 PM
Remember we are talking about college kids.  ;)
And their parents.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 16, 2020, 04:51:56 PM
And their parents.
nuch besser
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 16, 2020, 04:57:57 PM
Careful. Thats what made Sweden decide to refuse hospitalization and treatment to the elderly early in the pandemic. Socialized medicine is very into QALYs using it as a basis to deny treatment to the elderly and terminally ill, rationalizing that resources are better used on younger healthier individuals.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year
I didnt advocate either one. But the point wasnt about QALY- it was that immediate death may not be the only significant ramification of the virus.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 16, 2020, 07:17:16 PM
Here's an explanation on how that contract helped Pfizer.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/moderna-vaccine-data-show-why-warp-speed-helped-pfizer/

Thanks, interesting and informative, with substantial food for thought in the comments as well.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 19, 2020, 10:36:24 PM

100m are enough for 1/6 Americans, we should expect vaccines to be widely available in NYC before the end of 2020. Trump was more on target than all of us.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on November 19, 2020, 10:49:02 PM

100m are enough for 1/6 Americans, we should expect vaccines to be widely available in NYC before the end of 2020. Trump was more on target than all of us.
@S209
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: incendia on November 20, 2020, 07:06:18 AM

100m are enough for 1/6 Americans, we should expect vaccines to be widely available in NYC before the end of 2020. Trump was more on target than all of us.

Kits aren't the vaccine.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 20, 2020, 09:19:11 AM
Kits aren't the vaccine.

What is a kit? Is it a dose? two doses? A dose vial + a syringe?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on November 20, 2020, 09:22:36 AM
What is a kit? Is it a dose? two doses? A dose vial + a syringe?
Microchips
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: incendia on November 21, 2020, 08:14:42 PM
What is a kit? Is it a dose? two doses? A dose vial + a syringe?

The vaccine is coming in multi dose vials

The kits are ancillary items to administer the vaccine. I'm not sure what exactly will be in the kits but you should expect syringe, alcohol swabs, bandaid's, maybe gloves etc. They'll also come with some sort of card you can use as proof of vaccination.

Kits are shelf stable and can be shipped in advance of vaccines that need refrigeration or deep freezing
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 21, 2020, 08:16:22 PM
The vaccine is coming in multi dose vials

The kits are ancillary items to administer the vaccine. I'm not sure what exactly will be in the kits but you should expect syringe, alcohol swabs, bandaid's, maybe gloves etc. They'll also come with some sort of card you can use as proof of vaccination.

Kits are shelf stable and can be shipped in advance of vaccines that need refrigeration or deep freezing
Wow, I guess Pence found a way to manipulate us. Anybody else know if this is true?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on November 21, 2020, 08:54:28 PM
The vaccine is coming in multi dose vials

The kits are ancillary items to administer the vaccine. I'm not sure what exactly will be in the kits but you should expect syringe, alcohol swabs, bandaid's, maybe gloves etc. They'll also come with some sort of card you can use as proof of vaccination.

Kits are shelf stable and can be shipped in advance of vaccines that need refrigeration or deep freezing
So what's *Moderna" about the kit?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 21, 2020, 08:58:36 PM
So what's *Moderna" about the kit?
Likely specific to the temperature requirements

Quote
I asked him how many of those kits have already been manufactured for merging with merging with the Moderna product, and theyve already assembled 100 million kits that are ready to go.  And thats the supplies that are necessary for administering the vaccine.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-november-19-2020/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on November 21, 2020, 11:39:23 PM
Likely specific to the temperature requirements
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-november-19-2020/
Meaning it's not suitable for Pfizer's vaccine. So adding Moderna to the tweet was actually being super accurate and not trying to mislead into thinking it's the vaccine lol.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 21, 2020, 11:51:26 PM
Meaning it's not suitable for Pfizer's vaccine. So adding Moderna to the tweet was actually being super accurate and not trying to mislead into thinking it's the vaccine lol.
He gave pretty accurate information (assuming it's true), but I misunderstood it. It does beg the question, why in the world is the US government not doing more to manufacture vaccines???

From what I can read, the USG only ordered 100m does from Moderna. Did the Feds printers stop working?

https://www.modernatx.com/modernas-work-potential-vaccine-against-covid-19

https://www.lonza.com/news/2020-11-16-12-55

Is anybody but Lonza manufacturing the Moderna vaccine? They say 400m doses/year. That's 200m people. Unclear if will need a recurring shot every year. Some of the production is in Switzerland. Supposedly Israel gets the first batch from the Swiss line.

Can we really not make these any faster???

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 22, 2020, 12:10:07 AM
The vaccine is coming in multi dose vials

The kits are ancillary items to administer the vaccine. I'm not sure what exactly will be in the kits but you should expect syringe, alcohol swabs, bandaid's, maybe gloves etc. They'll also come with some sort of card you can use as proof of vaccination.

Kits are shelf stable and can be shipped in advance of vaccines that need refrigeration or deep freezing

What a scam. They could have had 100 billion such kits in February and it wouldn't help anyone.

Tachlis, how many doses of Pfizers and Moderna's are on hand already, and how many will be available for distribution by year's end?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2020, 12:14:06 AM
What a scam. They could have had 100 billion such kits in February and it wouldn't help anyone.

Tachlis, how many doses of Pfizers and Moderna's are on hand already, and how many will be available for distribution by year's end?
I don't know how many are in hand already (possibly none?). Pfizer said they will have 40m doses by year end. These are manufactured in Belgium and I'm not sure Pfizer committed the 40m to the US.

I believe Moderna is only made by Lonza, and they're making 400m/year. That includes a US plant in Portsmouth, that started in Sep, and a Swiss plant that's scheduled to start before year end. Israel claims the US only gets US production and Israel bought the first batch from the Swiss.

I was actually telling people in my outdoor shul today how Trump deserves credit for his 100m vaccine stockpile, but this is truly appalling beyond belief.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on November 22, 2020, 12:25:25 AM
From what I can read, the USG only ordered 100m does from Moderna. Did the Feds printers stop working?

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-supply-agreement-us-government-initial-100
Quote
Under the terms of the agreement, the U.S. government, as a part of Operation Warp Speed, will also have the option to purchase up to an additional 400 million doses of mRNA-1273 from Moderna.

This is from August.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2020, 12:30:53 AM
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-supply-agreement-us-government-initial-100
This is from August.
How is Israel buying it before the US has enough for everybody? I'm all for Israel getting some, but are we Argentina now?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on November 22, 2020, 12:17:30 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/us/operation-warp-speed-70-herd-immunity-normalcy-may-2021

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 22, 2020, 12:27:32 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/us/operation-warp-speed-70-herd-immunity-normalcy-may-2021

20m immunizations a month means 20m doses? This is for both Pfizer and Modena combined?

1. How much will get wasted considering the complex logistics and 24 hour expiry once its out of cold cooling?
2. Especially when you consider only 58% of people say they still the virus.
3. How do you get to 70% of 325m+ people (450m+ doses) in six months? If your distribution rate is 20m doses a month, thats 10m people immunized a month. By May 2021 thats 60m people immunized, which is closer to 20% of the total US population.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2020, 12:36:42 PM
20m immunizations a month means 20m doses? This is for both Pfizer and Modena combined?

1. How much will get wasted considering the complex logistics and 24 hour expiry once its out of cold cooling?
2. Especially when you consider only 58% of people say they still the virus.
3. How do you get to 70% of 325m+ people (450m+ doses) in six months? If your distribution rate is 20m doses a month, thats 10m people immunized a month. By May 2021 thats 60m people immunized, which is closer to 20% of the total US population.
Either Dr. Moncef Slaoui came from the same kitchen as Scott Atlas & Rudy Giuliani, they're assuming Pfizer/Moderna will distribute vaccines separately than the governments 20m/month, or it's 20m people per month (40m doses), 120m by May, add 10-15% that already had it and 20% for good luck and you're at 70% give or take
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 22, 2020, 12:38:23 PM
20m immunizations a month means 20m doses? This is for both Pfizer and Modena combined?

1. How much will get wasted considering the complex logistics and 24 hour expiry once its out of cold cooling?
2. Especially when you consider only 58% of people say they still the virus.
3. How do you get to 70% of 325m+ people (450m+ doses) in six months? If your distribution rate is 20m doses a month, thats 10m people immunized a month. By May 2021 thats 60m people immunized, which is closer to 20% of the total US population.

20m immunizations a month means 40m doses. While the doctor seems to have been referencing both vaccines, Pfizer alone seems to be distributing 40m alone this December with a target of 1.3 billion next year- so something seems off about the numbers.

1. None will be wasted. Pfizer vaccine can be kept in the fridge for 5 days, Moderna for 30. Perhaps some people in certain areas will be vaccinated earlier than others to circumvent waste but there should be close to no actual vaccines wasted. They have been working on distribution plans for months, including cold storage shipping containers.
2. Including those who have contracted or will contract the virus. Either way, far more people will be willing to take the vaccine in March-May once theyve seen millions immunized with no problem, including doctors and health care workers, and realize that many venues are only re-opening to people whove had the vaccine (teased at by the certificate in the vaccine kits)
3. See above
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2020, 12:47:04 PM
Pfizer alone seems to be distributing 40m alone this December with a target of 1.3 billion next year- so something seems off about the numbers.
Pfizer said on July 22 they will try to make 100m in 2020, but have since scaled it down to 40m. I haven't seen specific guidance from Pfizer that any of these 40m are coming to Trumpland, much less all of it. They're making it in Belgium & Germany and it's hard to believe US is gonna get first dibs on all of them. The EU ordered 200m vs US's 100m and their press announcement states explicitly that they expect to begin to deliver before the end of 2020.

America is great again.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 22, 2020, 01:19:34 PM
1. None will be wasted. Pfizer vaccine can be kept in the fridge for 5 days, Moderna for 30. Perhaps some people in certain areas will be vaccinated earlier than others to circumvent waste but there should be close to no actual vaccines wasted. They have been working on distribution plans for months, including cold storage shipping containers.
Maybe they'll do what they can to keep waste at a minimum, but you're insane if you think none will be wasted.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/22/scarce-covid-vaccine-waste-438928
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 22, 2020, 01:22:55 PM
Maybe they'll do what they can to keep waste at a minimum, but you're insane if you think none will be wasted.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/22/scarce-covid-vaccine-waste-438928
The article you posted lays out a valid argument that *some* doses *could* get wasted. I dont think they will at a significant amount, though. Nor, apparently, does the lead civilian doctor advising Warp Speed.

Theyve had too much time to prepare and too much to lose. This has literally been their biggest priority all along.

ETA From the article:

Quote
Maryland health officials told the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that as much as 5 percent of the vaccine the state is allocated could spoil and go unused.

5% is possible and acceptable
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 22, 2020, 01:24:48 PM
20m immunizations a month means 40m doses. While the doctor seems to have been referencing both vaccines, Pfizer alone seems to be distributing 40m alone this December with a target of 1.3 billion next year- so something seems off about the numbers.

1. None will be wasted. Pfizer vaccine can be kept in the fridge for 5 days, Moderna for 30. Perhaps some people in certain areas will be vaccinated earlier than others to circumvent waste but there should be close to no actual vaccines wasted. They have been working on distribution plans for months, including cold storage shipping containers.
2. Including those who have contracted or will contract the virus. Either way, far more people will be willing to take the vaccine in March-May once theyve seen millions immunized with no problem, including doctors and health care workers, and realize that many venues are only re-opening to people whove had the vaccine (teased at by the certificate in the vaccine kits)
3. See above

Any recent source from Pfizer directly on how many doses they plan on distributing in the US in 2021?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 22, 2020, 01:27:09 PM
The article you posted lays out a valid argument that *some* doses *could* get wasted. I dont think they will at a significant amount, though. Nor, apparently, does the lead civilian doctor advising Warp Speed.

Theyve had too much time to prepare and too much to lose. This has literally been their biggest priority all along.

ETA From the article:
5% is possible and acceptable

5% waste decreases 20m a month to 19m, assuming numbers arent higher elsewhere.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 22, 2020, 01:30:41 PM
The article you posted lays out a valid argument that *some* doses *could* get wasted. I dont think they will at a significant amount, though. Nor, apparently, does the lead civilian doctor advising Warp Speed.

Theyve had too much time to prepare and too much to lose. This has literally been their biggest priority all along.

ETA From the article:
5% is possible and acceptable
I'm literally calling out your statement - none will be wasted. And yes, I'm sure you didn't mean it literally. But handwaving away concerns is not a good idea in this situation with its unique logistical requirements. There are potential solutions, but they're not bulletproof, and they may be difficult to execute perfectly. This is essentially something that's never been done, so any proposal is something that hopefully will reduce waste, but is by no means a guarantee.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2020, 01:31:50 PM
Theyve had too much time to prepare and too much to lose.
You would think
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2020, 01:33:49 PM
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/22/scarce-covid-vaccine-waste-438928
Quote
Meanwhile, the Trump administration refuses to share its planning with the transition team of President-elect Joe Biden, who said Wednesday the lack of access could hamper vaccine distribution. Instead, Bidens team has been in contact with Pfizer and other drugmakers; a Pfizer spokesperson declined to share specifics of the communication.

Oy bashefer
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on November 22, 2020, 01:41:46 PM

Oy bashefer
they're preparing an excuse for the Biden admin to bungle the vaccine distribution.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2020, 01:53:28 PM
they're preparing an excuse for the Biden admin to bungle the vaccine distribution.
Trump is preparing the excuse for Biden by not briefing him?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 22, 2020, 01:55:14 PM
they're preparing an excuse for the Biden admin to bungle the vaccine distribution.
But is it a valid excuse?
I'm literally calling out your statement - none will be wasted. And yes, I'm sure you didn't mean it literally. But handwaving away concerns is not a good idea in this situation with its unique logistical requirements. There are potential solutions, but they're not bulletproof, and they may be difficult to execute perfectly. This is essentially something that's never been done, so any proposal is something that hopefully will reduce waste, but is by no means a guarantee.
You're right, *none* was a bit hyperbolic, I meant not a significant enough amount to sway the equation and estimate (like saying there was *no* fraud in the 2020 election). I thought I qualified it somewhat by adding the words close to no at the end. I guess I could have been more precise.
Any recent source from Pfizer directly on how many doses they plan on distributing in the US in 2021?
Not that I know of, I dont think theyve been specific recently about distribution numbers and dates anywhere.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2020, 05:19:02 PM

Unfreakin believable. Vaccines are turning out to be Trumps greatest failure. I bet the FDA is waiting until Dec 10 to review the data waiting on their desk just to mask the fact the derelict Administration neglected to stockpile the vaccines they said they would.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 22, 2020, 08:01:39 PM

Unfreakin believable. Vaccines are turning out to be Trumps greatest failure. I bet the FDA is waiting until Dec 10 to review the data waiting on their desk just to mask the fact the derelict Administration neglected to stockpile the vaccines they said they would.
Yup they are rushing it too fast and also sitting around waiting to cover up for something or other. Don't expect anything different from you.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 22, 2020, 08:09:10 PM
Yup they are rushing it too fast and also sitting around waiting to cover up for something or other. Don't expect anything different from you.
When did I ever say they were rushing it too fast? FDA taking 3 weeks to review data does not make anything safer.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 23, 2020, 02:14:54 PM
https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2020_q4/Article-3ea889368d5f571026.htm

Pfizer will deliver 200-500k of the 40m doses produced this year to Israel. No word yet on how many are going to the US. Make America Great Again
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 24, 2020, 10:52:03 AM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 24, 2020, 10:52:56 AM

Before EUA, or therell be EUA?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 11:20:09 AM
Before EUA, or therell be EUA?
The twiteer works for Newsmax. She's probably getting the vaccine on an alternate planet
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 24, 2020, 11:23:51 AM
The FDA isn't even meeting to discuss the EUA until something like December 9, so it's impossible to have EUA next week. It would be nice if he's right, but when I see that he works for Newsmax, I take it with a grain of salt until I see additional confirmation. My wife is a doctor at a major NYC hospital and hasn't heard anything about the vaccine being given yet.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 24, 2020, 12:32:07 PM

Research has shown that the biotech firms shot is effective at preventing people from getting sick with COVID-19, but theres no hard evidence that it stops them from carrying the virus transiently and potentially infecting others who havent been vaccinated, according to Dr. Tal Zaks, Modernas chief medical officer.



Is this a real concern, or political posturing?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 12:36:04 PM

Research has shown that the biotech firms shot is effective at preventing people from getting sick with COVID-19, but theres no hard evidence that it stops them from carrying the virus transiently and potentially infecting others who havent been vaccinated, according to Dr. Tal Zaks, Modernas chief medical officer.



Is this a real concern, or political posturing?
The operating term is 'no hard evidence'. It is still extremely likely to inhibit transmission - as the CMO himself says in this video.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 24, 2020, 12:46:27 PM
The operating term is 'no hard evidence'. It is still extremely likely to inhibit transmission - as the CMO himself says in this video.
Why do we still have no data on this? I understand the vaccine isn't at that point yet, but shouldn't we have been able to study whether antibodies from having actually been infected are enough to prevent 'transient' passing of the virus by now?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 12:48:37 PM
Why do we still have no data on this? I understand the vaccine isn't at that point yet, but shouldn't we have been able to study whether antibodies from having actually been infected are enough to prevent 'transient' passing of the virus by now?
We essentially know there is no such thing as transient passing, the virus is only shed when it's replicating. Removing the 1% doubt would likely require deliberate infection which is prohibited under ethical rules our governments are too incompetent to reevaluate.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: CountValentine on November 24, 2020, 12:49:35 PM
Yup they are rushing it too fast and also sitting around waiting to cover up for something or other. Don't expect anything different from you.
And you defending Trump at every turn and then claiming you don't support him is expected.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on November 24, 2020, 03:09:38 PM
I said this when the results came out and they were only testing symptomatic people - that the results therefore don't prove they inhibit infection, only symptomatic infections. I just don't get it. This is a multi-billion, maybe even trillion dollar market. Could they really not afford to test these people weekly?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 03:52:32 PM
I said this when the results came out and they were only testing symptomatic people - that the results therefore don't prove they inhibit infection, only symptomatic infections. I just don't get it. This is a multi-billion, maybe even trillion dollar market. Could they really not afford to test these people weekly?
Who says they didnt test anybody? Negative PCR would still not be hard evidence of no transmission.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on November 24, 2020, 03:57:32 PM
Who says they didnt test anybody? Negative PCR would still not be hard evidence of no transmission.

It would be better indication though. And all the reports said they only tested symptomatic
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 04:00:21 PM
It would be better indication though. And all the reports said they only tested symptomatic
Its already 99.9%... I didnt see a report that they didnt test periodically or at least some asymptomatic. It would be in their interest to test as much as possible since the approval was tied to reaching the 160 infection milestone.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: gozalim on November 24, 2020, 05:54:08 PM
Negative PCR would still not be hard evidence of no transmission.
if the respiratory samples have no virus in them, how is the airborne virus being transmitted?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 06:08:35 PM
if the respiratory samples have no virus in them, how is the airborne virus being transmitted?
It can exist even if the PCR doesnt pick it up, and even besides for that youd need a PCR from every minute to preclude it entirely.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 06:38:10 PM
I said this when the results came out and they were only testing symptomatic people - that the results therefore don't prove they inhibit infection, only symptomatic infections. I just don't get it. This is a multi-billion, maybe even trillion dollar market. Could they really not afford to test these people weekly?
Pfizer has their protocol published online. Instead of wasting resources doing PCRs, they relied on antibody testing to determine if anybody got asymptomatic Covid.

Quote
In addition, a serological definition will be used for participants without clinical presentation of COVID-19:
Confirmed seroconversion to SARS-CoV-2 without confirmed COVID-19: positive N-binding antibody result in a participant with a prior negative N-binding antibody result
Serum samples will be obtained for immunogenicity testing at the visits specified in the SoA. The following assays will be performed:
SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assay
S1-binding IgG level assay
RBD-binding IgG level assay
N-binding antibody assay

Moderna used a similar protocol to rule out asymptomatic infection.

https://www.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/mRNA-1273-P301-Protocol.pdf

Quote
Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection is determined by seroconversion due to infection assessed by bAb levels against SARS- CoV-2 as measured by a ligand-binding assay specific to the SARS- CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein and a negative NP swab sample for SARS- CoV-2 at Day 1.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 24, 2020, 07:47:13 PM
A frum woman who participated in the Moderna trial and received the vaccine and had confirmed antibodies in September has now reported a severe case of COVID that she caught from her husband 2 days after Moderna released preliminary results of 94.5% effectiveness - not good news!

https://www.imamother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=399108
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 07:48:23 PM
A frum woman who participated in the Moderna trial and received the vaccine and had confirmed antibodies in September has now reported a severe case of COVID that she caught from her husband 2 days after Moderna released preliminary results of 94.5% effectiveness - not good news!

https://www.imamother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=399108
The study is blinded so there is no way she knows if she got the vaccine or placebo.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 24, 2020, 07:49:57 PM
The study is blinded so there is no way she knows if she got the vaccine or placebo.
Even now after it is complete? How should she know if she should get the vaccine now that it is available?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 07:55:24 PM
Even now after it is complete? How should she know if she should get the vaccine now that it is available?
The study isn't complete for 24 months. There are limited interim analysis's. She was either one of the known 5 cases or has no way of knowing yet.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 24, 2020, 07:57:37 PM
The study isn't complete for 24 months. There are limited interim analysis's. She was either one of the known 5 cases or has no way of knowing yet.
okay. The one monkey wrench is her testing positive for antibodies
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 08:00:13 PM
okay. The one monkey wrench is her testing positive for antibodies
Depending on the assay, the vaccine shouldn't necessarily cause a positive antibodies test (see above).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on November 24, 2020, 08:02:01 PM
Depending on the assay, the vaccine shouldn't necessarily cause a positive antibodies test (see above).
Even so. It could then mean that she had the vaccine, also acquired natural immunity, and then STILL got sick. I guess it is possible, but seems very strange.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 08:07:09 PM
Even so. It could then mean that she had the vaccine, also acquired natural immunity, and then STILL got sick. I guess it is possible, but seems very strange.
There is always the possibility none of it is true. She claims she thinks she is unique because Moderna is checking on her daily, but that is part of their published protocol for anybody who contracts Covid. I will try to look through their data to see if her claim to be one of the 5 cases is possible.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 24, 2020, 08:14:19 PM
She says on page 1 that she had fever and body aches after getting the shot, which made her think she got the vaccine, since a placebo wouldn't produce such side effects (not to mention the confirmed antibodies). Is that true?

Then she said she's one of the 5 with the vaccine to be positive, but on page 3 she says she tested positive 2 days after they reported, so maybe she's #6?

Definitely not good news, unless we find out that she really was in the placebo group, yet somehow still managed to pick up antibodies after getting the placebo while remaining asymptomatic with her entire family, who have now all come down with together = pretty unlikely.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 08:18:45 PM
So on Nov 24 she posted claiming to have contracted Covid and to be one of the 5 known cases in Moderna's study.

Moderna published results including 5 cases on Nov 15.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine

Moderna announced it had the data and began compiling it already on Nov 11

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-has-completed-case-accrual-first-planned-interim


If she got infected after Nov 11, she is not one of the 5 identified cases, and she cannot know definitively that she got the vaccine and not the placebo.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on November 24, 2020, 08:19:49 PM
can antibody tests have false positives? that would be another factor to complicate the discussion...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 08:21:21 PM
She says on page 1 that she had fever and body aches after getting the shot, which made her think she got the vaccine, since a placebo wouldn't produce such side effects (not to mention the confirmed antibodies). Is that true?
'Light fever & body aches' can be pyschological or unrelated - she does claim to have immune issues...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on November 24, 2020, 08:22:53 PM
She also says that she is high risk, and would then have a strong subconscious bias to assume she got the actual vaccine (which could explain the minor side effects she had at the time of the shot).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on November 24, 2020, 08:24:16 PM
She also says that she is high risk, and would then have a strong subconscious bias to assume she got the actual vaccine (which could explain the minor side effects she had at the time of the shot).
didn't it say that everyone in the trial is high risk?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 08:25:56 PM
didn't it say that everyone in the trial is high risk?
No.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 24, 2020, 08:28:13 PM
From page 1: "You need to have not had it and be high risk in some way to be part of the study that I am doing."
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on November 24, 2020, 08:30:05 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/dcqUQUs.png)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 08:31:05 PM
From page 1: "You need to have not had it and be high risk in some way to be part of the study that I am doing."
Oh, she said it, but the the protocol published by NIH & Moderna specifically says otherwise.

Quote
Randomization will be stratified based on age and, if they are < 65 years of age, based on the presence or absence of risk factors for severe illness from COVID-19 based on CDC recommendation as of Mar 2020. There will be 3 strata for randomization: ≥ 65 years, < 65 years and categorized to be at increased risk (at risk) for the complications of COVID-19, and < 65 years not at risk. Risk will be defined based on the study participants relevant past and current medical history. At least 25% of enrolled participants, but not more than 40%, will be either ≥ 65 years of age or < 65 years of age and at risk at Screening.
https://www.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/mRNA-1273-P301-Protocol.pdf
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on November 24, 2020, 08:54:14 PM
@PlatinumGuy Care to comment on her thread?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 24, 2020, 08:59:47 PM
@PlatinumGuy Care to comment on her thread?
Dont I have to be a woman to sign up there? Anyways I dont see how well glean any information from her. She seems to have a standard case of Covid. Even if she got the vaccine, we know thats possible. Bh shes not hospitalized or anything despite being high risk
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on November 24, 2020, 09:10:09 PM
To clear up misconceptions? So get your better half to sign up. Or bend the rules.  ;)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 25, 2020, 01:20:24 AM
Astra Zeneca has been testing its UK sample every week with PCR to identify asymptomatic. Its a shame theyre making the vaccine pro bono & bumbled up the trial
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: gozalim on November 25, 2020, 09:22:16 AM
What are the odds she's an antivaxxer with a good imagination?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on November 25, 2020, 09:56:17 AM
Dont I have to be a woman to sign up there? Anyways I dont see how well glean any information from her. She seems to have a standard case of Covid. Even if she got the vaccine, we know thats possible. Bh shes not hospitalized or anything despite being high risk
I guess we need @henche to comment there.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 25, 2020, 11:32:28 AM
What are the odds she's an antivaxxer with a good imagination?

There is always the possibility none of it is true.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 25, 2020, 12:10:33 PM
Astra Zeneca has been testing its UK sample every week with PCR to identify asymptomatic. Its a shame theyre making the vaccine pro bono & bumbled up the trial

What do you mean bumbled up?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on November 25, 2020, 12:14:38 PM
What are the odds she's an antivaxxer with a good imagination?
Which antivaxxer would take a trial vaccine? Unless she imagined that part too...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 25, 2020, 12:16:05 PM
Which antivaxxer would take a trial vaccine? Unless she imagined that part too...

I think thats whats being suggested here, that the entire story is one big fabrication.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on November 25, 2020, 12:27:19 PM
I think thats whats being suggested here, that the entire story is one big fabrication.
okay
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on November 25, 2020, 12:27:36 PM
I think thats whats being suggested here, that the entire story is one big fabrication.

If that were to be true, she's been setting it up for a while. Her first post is from July.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 25, 2020, 12:30:10 PM
If that were to be true, she's been setting it up for a while. Her first post is from July.

If this was her intention then that would be plausible.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 25, 2020, 01:43:29 PM
What do you mean bumbled up?
There is widespread criticism of their study quality and transparency, the two tidbits I picked up were that somehow a large sample size got the wrong dose and they modified the study retroactively in light of that, which isn't ideal (Can you be really sure everyone got the same mistaken dose?), and unlike Moderna & Pfizer, AZN isn't running a single uniform trial but various different studies in different countries with different parameters, making it very difficult to analyze effectively.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 25, 2020, 02:19:40 PM
Dr. Slauoi says 110 million Americans should be vaccinated by end of February, entire country by sometime between May and December:

https://therecount.com/wire/vaccine-czar-dr-moncef-slaoui/2645864330
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 25, 2020, 02:20:34 PM
Dr. Slauoi says 110 million Americans should be vaccinated by end of February, entire country by sometime between May and December:

https://therecount.com/wire/vaccine-czar-dr-moncef-slaoui/2645864330
Either Dr. Moncef Slaoui came from the same kitchen as Scott Atlas & Rudy Giuliani
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 25, 2020, 02:26:51 PM
There is widespread criticism of their study quality and transparency, the two tidbits I picked up were that somehow a large sample size got the wrong dose and they modified the study retroactively in light of that, which isn't ideal (Can you be really sure everyone got the same mistaken dose?), and unlike Moderna & Pfizer, AZN isn't running a single uniform trial but various different studies in different countries with different parameters, making it very difficult to analyze effectively.

The dosing inconsistency might have a silver lining if it results in higher efficacy:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/astrazeneca-probes-mistake-behind-90-covid-vaccine-efficacy

Its clearly beneficial to have all these vaccine candidates in the running for reasons like this. AZNs vaccine has advantages over Pfizer/Moderna in that its a more traditional adenovirus vaccine (vs mRNA) and its stable with regular refrigeration.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 25, 2020, 02:30:55 PM
The dosing inconsistency might have a silver lining if it results in higher efficacy:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/astrazeneca-probes-mistake-behind-90-covid-vaccine-efficacy

Its clearly beneficial to have all these vaccine candidates in the running for reasons like this. AZNs vaccine has advantages over Pfizer/Moderna in that its a more traditional adenovirus vaccine (vs mRNA) and its stable with regular refrigeration.
Yes, all the more shame they messed up their trials. AZN's primary advantage is price.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 25, 2020, 02:32:34 PM
Yes, all the more shame they messed up their trials. AZN's primary advantage is price.

Price? Wasnt Pfizers vaccine $20/dose for the governments 100m dose PO? Negligible cost if they can distribute it quickly and the economy can safely go back to normal.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 25, 2020, 02:34:04 PM
Price? Wasnt Pfizers vaccine $20/dose for the governments 100m dose PO? Negligible cost if they can distribute it quickly and the economy can safely go back to normal.
AZN's price is even lower - big difference for developing countries
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 25, 2020, 02:41:19 PM
AZN's price is even lower - big difference for developing countries

Im narrowly thinking US market. Hopefully the global community will subsidize this for emerging markets and/or allow them to manufacture generic doses locally, but that is TBD.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 25, 2020, 03:58:34 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 25, 2020, 11:09:42 PM
Vaccines are turning out to be Trumps greatest failure.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/25/operation-warp-speed-slaoui-departure-440630
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 26, 2020, 12:06:24 AM
https://apple.news/AbufAQ4ldRuCQ3GsvnGdyGw

Per WSJ, General Perna claims there are 6.4m/2 Pfizer doses available immediately upon FDA approval
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yuneeq on November 26, 2020, 02:40:32 AM
https://apple.news/AbufAQ4ldRuCQ3GsvnGdyGw

Per WSJ, General Perna claims there are 6.4m/2 Pfizer doses available immediately upon FDA approval

What people forget is that the 2nd dose isn't due for a month. You can technically dose 6.4m people on day 1 because Pfizer will still be manufacturing and have (perhaps significantly) more doses ready a month later.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 26, 2020, 12:05:19 PM
https://apple.news/AbufAQ4ldRuCQ3GsvnGdyGw

Per WSJ, General Perna claims there are 6.4m/2 Pfizer doses available immediately upon FDA approval

Thats nothing, what happened to 100m doses by the end of the year?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 26, 2020, 12:17:45 PM
Thats nothing, what happened to 100m doses by the end of the year?
You mean Mike Pence's 100m kits?

What people forget is that the 2nd dose isn't due for a month. You can technically dose 6.4m people on day 1 because Pfizer will still be manufacturing and have (perhaps significantly) more doses ready a month later.
Yeah good point, but they said 3.2m people with 6.4m doses.

BTW Pfizer anticipates 40m by year end, but only 6.4m by FDA approval on Dec 10. The numbers don't really add up. There are 15 days until Dec 10 in which they expect to make 6.4m, and 20 days from Dec 10-30 in which they anticipate 33m. Granted, it is possible the production time is longer 6.4m started months ago, or production capacity will be ramped up progressively, but it's more likely a large chunk of the 40m will also be ready on Dec 10 but isn't going to the US.

It appears the US has 21m front line Health Care Workers.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on November 26, 2020, 12:22:16 PM
You mean Mike Pence's 100m kits?
Yeah good point, but they said 3.2m people with 6.4m doses.

BTW Pfizer anticipates 40m by year end, but only 6.4m by FDA approval on Dec 10. The numbers don't really add up. There are 15 days until Dec 10 in which they expect to make 6.4m, and 20 days from Dec 10-30 in which they anticipate 33m. Granted, it is possible the production time is longer 6.4m started months ago, or production capacity will be ramped up progressively, but it's more likely a large chunk of the 40m will also be ready on Dec 10 but isn't going to the US.

It appears the US has 21m front line Health Care Workers.

Doesnt that 21m figure appear high? Are 1 in 15 of ALL Americans (including the elderly/retirees, infants and children, homeless, disabled/unemployed etc) a front-line healthcare worker? They must be using some really loose definition and/or inflating this figure.

ETA: Even the publishes numbers for Healthcare and social assistance is below 21m, and thats an inclusive category well beyond front-line healthcare workers.

https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 26, 2020, 12:31:30 PM
Doesnt that 21m figure appear high? Are 1 in 15 of ALL Americans (including the elderly/retirees, infants and children, homeless, disabled/unemployed etc) a front-line healthcare worker? They must be using some really loose definition and/or inflating this figure.

ETA: Even the publishes numbers for Healthcare and social assistance is below 21m, and thats an inclusive category well beyond front-line healthcare workers.

https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm
Frontline is obviously a strong word, but the WSJ proclaims 21m 'Health Care workers'. It's probably a broader category than your stat, since it will include hospital employees who are not directly engaged in providing healthcare, yet can theoretically be critical.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on November 26, 2020, 06:43:53 PM
Doesnt that 21m figure appear high? Are 1 in 15 of ALL Americans (including the elderly/retirees, infants and children, homeless, disabled/unemployed etc) a front-line healthcare worker? They must be using some really loose definition and/or inflating this figure.

ETA: Even the publishes numbers for Healthcare and social assistance is below 21m, and thats an inclusive category well beyond front-line healthcare workers.

https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm
Healthcare and social assistance was 20.4m in 2019, that's really close to 21m and we're 1.5 years later.




https://www.epa.gov/regulatory-information-sector/healthcare-and-social-assistance-sector-naics-62 (https://www.epa.gov/regulatory-information-sector/healthcare-and-social-assistance-sector-naics-62)
Quote
The Health Care and Social Assistance sector comprises establishments providing health care and social assistance for individuals. The industries in this sector include physician's offices, hospitals, medical laboratories, nursing homes, and youth and family service centers.
Sure sounds like the overwhelming majority are front-line workers.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on November 28, 2020, 11:39:32 PM
A frum woman who participated in the Moderna trial and received the vaccine and had confirmed antibodies in September has now reported a severe case of COVID that she caught from her husband 2 days after Moderna released preliminary results of 94.5% effectiveness - not good news!

https://www.imamother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=399108
Predictably, that thread devolved into anti-vaxxer rhetoric.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 29, 2020, 08:00:22 PM
Quote
Hospitals in England have been told they could receive the first doses of the Pfizer shot as early as the week of Dec. 7 if it receives approval, the Guardian and Financial Times reported.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/29/coronavirus-britain-vaccine-441187

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on November 30, 2020, 03:10:57 PM
Thread title should be bumped up by a year

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/first-mass-air-shipment-of-pfizers-covid-vaccine-arrives-as-airlines-prepare-for-more.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 30, 2020, 06:01:20 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 30, 2020, 11:23:09 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yuneeq on December 01, 2020, 01:23:56 AM

"The amount of data submitted to the FDA includes thousands of pages of technical information that must be divided up and reviewed by experts from different disciplines. Once the reviews by the various experts are completed, they are then integrated into an overall review. Completion of these reviews involves such things as ensuring that the manufacturing process and the controls on manufacturing are appropriate, checking statistical analyses performed to ensure that they were done properly and doing additional analyses, as necessary, to look at the effect of the vaccine on subsets of individuals who might be at greater risk of adverse effects."

You previously asked why the FDA is waiting until December 10th to meet, and I was curious as well, but after reading this it kinda seems justified.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 01, 2020, 02:02:47 AM
"The amount of data submitted to the FDA includes thousands of pages of technical information that must be divided up and reviewed by experts from different disciplines. Once the reviews by the various experts are completed, they are then integrated into an overall review. Completion of these reviews involves such things as ensuring that the manufacturing process and the controls on manufacturing are appropriate, checking statistical analyses performed to ensure that they were done properly and doing additional analyses, as necessary, to look at the effect of the vaccine on subsets of individuals who might be at greater risk of adverse effects."

You previously asked why the FDA is waiting until December 10th to meet, and I was curious as well, but after reading this it kinda seems justified.
Im not sure. Sounds like a lot of words to excuse bureaucratic delays. Surely they should have access to as many experts around the clock as necessary to get this done ASAP?
Title: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on December 01, 2020, 02:32:27 AM
Im not sure. Sounds like a lot of words to excuse bureaucratic delays. Surely they should have access to as many experts around the clock as necessary to get this done ASAP?
Even if they do - they need the full confidence and trust of the People. And to the layperson, due diligence == time.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yuneeq on December 01, 2020, 03:36:25 AM
Im not sure. Sounds like a lot of words to excuse bureaucratic delays. Surely they should have access to as many experts around the clock as necessary to get this done ASAP?

Take the following paragraphs for example. Imagine you had 10,000 experts poring over each word, do you think they will read it and understand it faster than 2-3 people? How about if you split it up and give each expert one character to review, surely that will make things go faster?

Never mind the hiring, training, and onboarding of new experts including how to use internal tools and learn FDA protocols, etc. You also need some method of handling all the inter communication between these experts. To me it seems far simpler to throw the full weight of the FDA at the vaccine with existing expert employees and protocols, hopefully their decision will be ready as soon as possible. I can imagine some incompetence and inefficiencies but thats natural.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 01, 2020, 03:53:01 AM
Take the following paragraphs for example. Imagine you had 10,000 experts poring over each word, do you think they will read it and understand it faster than 2-3 people? How about if you split it up and give each expert one character to review, surely that will make things go faster?

Never mind the hiring, training, and onboarding of new experts including how to use internal tools and learn FDA protocols, etc. You also need some method of handling all the inter communication between these experts. To me it seems far simpler to throw the full weight of the FDA at the vaccine with existing expert employees and protocols, hopefully their decision will be ready as soon as possible. I can imagine some incompetence and inefficiencies but thats natural.
Dont forget each day will cost ~1,500 lives.

Pfizer did it to make money. The FDA should be able to as well.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on December 01, 2020, 04:10:03 AM
Take the following paragraphs for example. Imagine you had 10,000 experts poring over each word, do you think they will read it and understand it faster than 2-3 people? How about if you split it up and give each expert one character to review, surely that will make things go faster?

Never mind the hiring, training, and onboarding of new experts including how to use internal tools and learn FDA protocols, etc. You also need some method of handling all the inter communication between these experts. To me it seems far simpler to throw the full weight of the FDA at the vaccine with existing expert employees and protocols, hopefully their decision will be ready as soon as possible. I can imagine some incompetence and inefficiencies but thats natural.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks%27s_law
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 01, 2020, 04:13:41 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks%27s_law
Quote
The first point is to note that Brooks's law only applies to projects that are already late. Projects can be brought back into (or kept in) control if people are added earlier in the process. It is also important to determine if the project is really late, or if the schedule was originally overly optimistic. Scheduling mistakes account for a large number of late projects. Correcting the schedule is the best way to have a meaningful and reliable time frame for the project's completion.

The quantity, quality and role of the people added to the project also must be taken into consideration. One simple way to circumvent the law on an overrun project is to add more people than needed, in such a way that the extra capacity compensates the training and communication overhead. Good programmers or specialists can be added with less overhead for training. People can be added to do other tasks related with the project, for example, quality assurance or documentation; given that the task is clear, ramp up time is minimized.

Good segmentation helps by minimizing the communication overhead between team members. Smaller sub-problems are solved by a smaller team, and a top-level team is responsible for systems integration. For this method to work, the segmentation of the problem must be done correctly in the first place; if done incorrectly, this can make the problem worse, not better, by impeding communication between programmers working on parts of the problem which are actually closely coupled, even when the project plan has decreed that they are not.

An example of segmentation are design patterns that simplify the distribution of work, because the entire team can do its part within the framework provided by that pattern. The design pattern defines the rules that the programmers follow, simplifies communication through the use of a standard language, and provides consistency and scalability.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on December 01, 2020, 08:06:25 AM
Since Covid began we all became experts in so many different fields. Lets add workplace and workflow efficiency to the list. :)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 01, 2020, 12:50:23 PM
Since Covid began we all became experts in so many different fields. Lets add workplace and workflow efficiency to the list. :)
Im no expert- I just cant believe it takes 2 weeks to read through some research when Pfizer can produce and distribute 100 million vaccines in that time frame.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 01, 2020, 12:55:11 PM
Dont forget each day will cost ~1,500 lives.

Pfizer did it to make money. The FDA should be able to as well.
I don't think this is really accurate, IINM at this point manufacturing is ramping up as quickly as possible, at most a couple of weeks after the vaccine starts being distributed they'll catch up to manufacturing at which point it will make no difference when they actually started distributing the vaccine.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 01, 2020, 12:56:36 PM
IINM at this point manufacturing is ramping up as quickly as possible
Who said?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 01, 2020, 12:59:19 PM
I don't think this is really accurate, IINM at this point manufacturing is ramping up as quickly as possible, at most a couple of weeks after the vaccine starts being distributed they'll catch up to manufacturing at which point it will make no difference when they actually started distributing the vaccine.
No matter what, every day that the first doses are not administered those higher risk people remain vulnerable during this (massive) wave. Each day that those initial people are vulnerable will probably cost lives.

So youre right, its probably not 1,500, but its significant.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 01, 2020, 12:59:44 PM
Who said?
Wasn't that part of operation Warp Speed? Are they waiting for approval to ramp up production?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 01, 2020, 01:00:24 PM
No matter what, every day that the first doses are not administered those higher risk people remain vulnerable during this (massive) wave. Each day that those initial people are vulnerable will probably cost lives.

So youre right, its probably not 1,500, but its significant.
That I'll agree.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 02, 2020, 02:12:26 AM
Boom! UK approved Pfizer vaccine

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 02, 2020, 08:53:51 AM
Boom! UK approved Pfizer vaccine
Its been almost exactly 4 months since the OP in this thread. Not quite 15 months. Bh!
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on December 02, 2020, 03:23:06 PM
Its been almost exactly 4 months since the OP in this thread. Not quite 15 months. Bh!
Bh. Unfortunately this part happened anyway.
Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 02, 2020, 08:41:37 PM
Bh. Unfortunately this part happened anyway.
True
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 02, 2020, 09:06:09 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 02, 2020, 09:09:47 PM
If they can hire 150 they can hire 1,500
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 02, 2020, 09:29:40 PM
If they can hire 150 they can hire 1,500
Theres probably a limited pool of qualified personnel to hire from, but I dont believe that this actually takes so long. They shouldve started reviewing things before the official submission, and probably did.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 03, 2020, 01:26:40 PM
https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2020_q4/Article-a699a9997a92671027.htm

Israel is expecting 4m/2 Pfizer doses this December. They have 40m doses, the US is dysfunctional, Europe isnt approving until Dec 29 so its going to UK & Israel
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 03, 2020, 01:40:48 PM
https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2020_q4/Article-a699a9997a92671027.htm

Israel is expecting 4m/2 Pfizer doses this December. They have 40m doses, the US is dysfunctional, Europe isnt approving until Dec 29 so its going to UK & Israel
When will Israel allow US citizens in to get the vaccine?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on December 03, 2020, 01:51:00 PM
https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2020_q4/Article-a699a9997a92671027.htm

Israel is expecting 4m/2 Pfizer doses this December. They have 40m doses, the US is dysfunctional, Europe isnt approving until Dec 29 so its going to UK & Israel

That's a huge step towards herd immunity in Israel. They could be completely back to normal by Pesach.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 03, 2020, 02:02:26 PM
That's a huge step towards herd immunity in Israel. They could be completely back to normal by Pesach.
2m ppl should be pretty much enough to return to normal
When will Israel allow US citizens in to get the vaccine?
At this rate looks like by February they may have more vaccines than ppl willing to get vaccinated. Remember Israel has the first batch of Modernas Swiss production line.

My eyes are on London though, there is talk of allowing private doctors to vaccinate separately than the  NHS sooner rather than later
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on December 03, 2020, 02:06:03 PM
2m ppl should be pretty much enough to return to normal.

Not enough to completely open the country to foreigners, and there is no normal in Israel without foreigners.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on December 03, 2020, 02:17:02 PM
Not enough to completely open the country to foreigners, and there is no normal in Israel without foreigners.
I would imagine that if you vaccinate the 20% most vulnerable plus the healthcare workers so they can stay on the job thats a game changer that allows you a lot more latitude to open up to foreigners even if you dont have full coverage.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on December 03, 2020, 02:24:16 PM
I would imagine that if you vaccinate the 20% most vulnerable plus the healthcare workers so they can stay on the job thats a game changer that allows you a lot more latitude to open up to foreigners even if you dont have full coverage.

I'm against the "most vulnerable" approach, but that's not relevant. If the goal is to open up to foreigners, I'd vaccinate the heathcare workers, the airport workers, and prioritize workers in high-traffic tourist spots. That would minimize the effect of foreigners bringing the virus with them.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on December 03, 2020, 04:14:41 PM
Bad news

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-slashed-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-target-after-facing-supply-chain-obstacles-11607027787
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on December 03, 2020, 04:16:49 PM
That's a huge step towards herd immunity in Israel. They could be completely back to normal by Pesach.

I was getting excited that maybe I'll be able to book! But then you said this 😕:

Not enough to completely open the country to foreigners, and there is no normal in Israel without foreigners.

I guess we still have to take a wait and see approach to see where we get with the vaccines.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on December 03, 2020, 04:18:34 PM
Bad news

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-slashed-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-target-after-facing-supply-chain-obstacles-11607027787 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-slashed-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-target-after-facing-supply-chain-obstacles-11607027787)
And they waited until after the election to report this?!?

😉
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 03, 2020, 04:49:04 PM
Bad news

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-slashed-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-target-after-facing-supply-chain-obstacles-11607027787

Ugh. Why are they calling it "100 million vaccines" by years end if they (likely) mean 100m doses.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on December 03, 2020, 05:00:04 PM
I was getting excited that maybe I'll be able to book! But then you said this 😕:

I guess we still have to take a wait and see approach to see where we get with the vaccines.

The 2 million doses is only in December. Between additional vaccinations and additional infections between now and Pesach, I think there's a very good chance Israel will be open for Pesach. But what do I know...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on December 03, 2020, 05:52:15 PM
But what do I know...

Not enough to make me take the leap and actually book 😉.

Will wait patiently.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on December 03, 2020, 06:17:04 PM
The vaccine is supposed to be free, paid for by the federal government, with any fees for actually administering it covered by insurance. Does anybody think there will be opportunities to "jump the line" and receive the vaccine for a fee earlier than one's risk profile would allow him to get it for free?

I'm not talking about billionaries whose names are on the doors of the hospitals doling it out, but will there be an option to pay say $500-$1000 to get it through any private channels not subject to governmental rules of priority?

And separately, even though the federal guidelines recommended the first batch go to health care professionals and also those in nursing homes, Cuomo announced that NY's first batch will go solely to nursing home residents and staff, with hospital-based doctors and nurses having to wait. Anyone think this is an attempt at damage control for what he did to the nursing homes in the spring?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-will-get-enough-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-for-170-000-people-cuomo-says-11606929884
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehudaa on December 03, 2020, 06:27:07 PM
The vaccine is supposed to be free, paid for by the federal government, with any fees for actually administering it covered by insurance. Does anybody think there will be opportunities to "jump the line" and receive the vaccine for a fee earlier than one's risk profile would allow him to get it for free?

I'm not talking about billionaries whose names are on the doors of the hospitals doling it out, but will there be an option to pay say $500-$1000 to get it through any private channels not subject to governmental rules of priority?

And separately, even though the federal guidelines recommended the first batch go to health care professionals and also those in nursing homes, Cuomo announced that NY's first batch will go solely to nursing home residents and staff, with hospital-based doctors and nurses having to wait. Anyone think this is an attempt at damage control for what he did to the nursing homes in the spring?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-will-get-enough-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-for-170-000-people-cuomo-says-11606929884
Here's one way:

https://www.interpol.int/en/News-and-Events/News/2020/INTERPOL-warns-of-organized-crime-threat-to-COVID-19-vaccines

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/13422-covid-19-vaccine-could-become-liquid-gold-for-criminals
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 03, 2020, 06:30:38 PM
I don't think this is really accurate, IINM at this point manufacturing is ramping up as quickly as possible, at most a couple of weeks after the vaccine starts being distributed they'll catch up to manufacturing at which point it will make no difference when they actually started distributing the vaccine.
Looks like you are correct. From the article posted above:
Quote
Pfizer and BioNtech are now on track to roll out 1.3 billion vaccines in 2021 and the 50 million dose shortfall this year will be covered as production ramps up.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 03, 2020, 06:57:07 PM
The vaccine is supposed to be free, paid for by the federal government, with any fees for actually administering it covered by insurance. Does anybody think there will be opportunities to "jump the line" and receive the vaccine for a fee earlier than one's risk profile would allow him to get it for free?

I'm not talking about billionaries whose names are on the doors of the hospitals doling it out, but will there be an option to pay say $500-$1000 to get it through any private channels not subject to governmental rules of priority?

Not immediately, but I'm fairly confident it will eventually be significantly easier to get it for $200-500 out of pocket in a major city than via insurance. It also looks like this point may be reached faster in Israel & UK than the US. Likely around February.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 03, 2020, 09:37:54 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: 4yourinfo on December 06, 2020, 12:21:34 PM
The vaccine is supposed to be free, paid for by the federal government, with any fees for actually administering it covered by insurance. Does anybody think there will be opportunities to "jump the line" and receive the vaccine for a fee earlier than one's risk profile would allow him to get it for free?

I'm not talking about billionaries whose names are on the doors of the hospitals doling it out, but will there be an option to pay say $500-$1000 to get it through any private channels not subject to governmental rules of priority?

And separately, even though the federal guidelines recommended the first batch go to health care professionals and also those in nursing homes, Cuomo announced that NY's first batch will go solely to nursing home residents and staff, with hospital-based doctors and nurses having to wait. Anyone think this is an attempt at damage control for what he did to the nursing homes in the spring?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-will-get-enough-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-for-170-000-people-cuomo-says-11606929884
You don't think the government is going to beg people to get vaccinated? Are people really comfortable taking this shot? I think everyone will be offered the vaccine pretty quickly
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 06, 2020, 12:35:15 PM
You don't think the government is going to beg people to get vaccinated? Are people really comfortable taking this shot? I think everyone will be offered the vaccine pretty quickly
Millions will line up to take it first. Eventually there will be a surplus of vaccines when supply exceeds demand and at that point their job is done.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on December 06, 2020, 12:43:43 PM
You don't think the government is going to beg people to get vaccinated? Are people really comfortable taking this shot? I think everyone will be offered the vaccine pretty quickly

At least half the country is ready to get the shot today. By the time we work through the ones who want it, at least half of the remaining people will be ok with getting it. That's all that really matters.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 06, 2020, 12:48:10 PM
At least half the country is ready to get the shot today. By the time we work through the ones who want it, at least half of the remaining people will be ok with getting it. That's all that really matters.
Dont forget there will have been at least tens of millions already infected, skewed to the non-vaccinating group.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on December 06, 2020, 12:50:37 PM
Dont forget there will have been at least tens of millions already infected, skewed to the non-vaccinating group.

Yea, but that math gets fuzzy when you try to figure out who still has antibodies. You can only really count people who have been infected within 3-6 months, which eliminates the spring and (most of the) summer waves.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 06, 2020, 12:54:36 PM
Yea, but that math gets fuzzy when you try to figure out who still has antibodies. You can only really count people who have been infected within 3-6 months, which eliminates the spring and (most of the) summer waves.
Im not sure about that. Thus far most people whove checked antibody levels or been re-exposed (anecdotally, but a large amount of people) have remained immune(?) even 8-9 months later.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on December 06, 2020, 12:59:32 PM
Im not sure about that. Thus far most people whove checked antibody levels or been re-exposed (anecdotally, but a large amount of people) have remained immune(?) even 8-9 months later.

Anecdotally, I've made family who were infected in March test for antibodies before even thinking of visiting me, and we're sitting at 50% with antibodies right now. Confirmed Covid positives. I'm not willing to bet on anything more than 4 months without a test. Could they last for 12 months in most people? Very possibly. Maybe even longer. But for the purposes of adding them into the immunity calculations, I'd rather underestimate than overestimate.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 06, 2020, 01:06:25 PM
Anecdotally, I've made family who were infected in March test for antibodies before even thinking of visiting me, and we're sitting at 50% with antibodies right now. Confirmed Covid positives.
Ouch.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 06, 2020, 01:50:13 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on December 06, 2020, 02:37:16 PM
Cuomo two days ago:
Bad news, we have another mountain - I know how much you like mountains. I've heard many of your comments about the mountains. I may make another mountain to symbolize the mountain because I know you like it. That's the bad news we have another mountain to climb. The good news is the goal line is in sight. And the goal line is a vaccine that we administer that people accept. That could happen as early as June, could happen as late as September
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 06, 2020, 09:11:48 PM
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/06/states-health-providers-who-gets-first-vaccines-442993

I guess we can start plotting a vaccine DO
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 07, 2020, 03:23:23 AM
 Obama, Bush, and Clinton willing to be vaccinated in public (https://www.axios.com/obama-bush-clinton-covid-19-vaccine-b0004271-de25-489e-8967-1b432fcaf9df.html?)

And

Wall Street bankers could vault line to get vaccine, ahead of those over 65 and high risk (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-and-finance-workers-could-get-covid-vaccines-before-most-americans-11607119149)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 07, 2020, 05:44:34 PM
https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2020_q4/Article-3ea889368d5f571026.htm

Pfizer will deliver 200-500k of the 40m doses produced this year to Israel. No word yet on how many are going to the US. Make America Great Again
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on December 07, 2020, 08:45:12 PM
Just vaccinating the first 20 million might take until mid February.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/07/pledge-to-vaccinate-20-million-against-covid19-in-december-seems-unrealistic/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on December 08, 2020, 07:59:36 AM
First person to receive Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine is Margaret Keenan, 90, as UK begins biggest vaccination programme in NHS history.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 08, 2020, 09:55:50 AM
First person to receive Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine is Margaret Keenan, 90, as UK begins biggest vaccination programme in NHS history.
Second person is named William Shakespeare.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: skyguy918 on December 08, 2020, 10:04:23 AM
First person to receive Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine is Margaret Keenan, 90, as UK begins biggest vaccination programme in NHS history.
Some words missing in that headline, no? They did use the vaccine in the trial obviously.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on December 08, 2020, 11:16:15 AM
Second person is named William Shakespeare.
He's got to be even older than that by now
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 08, 2020, 02:44:38 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 08, 2020, 02:50:05 PM

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 08, 2020, 03:07:36 PM



Wouldn't this mean it's better to just give people one dose?...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 08, 2020, 03:21:34 PM
Wouldn't this mean it's better to just give people one dose?...
I dont know, but perhaps the immunity from a single dose isnt a long lived?
Its also possible a single dose is only 70% effective vs 90% effective; however if you dont give people the second dose in a timely matter, you lose the possibility of giving them two doses later because of vector immunity, although I dont know if thats a thing with mRNA.
My biggest concern with getting a vaccine now is that it may preclude from future improvements.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 09, 2020, 01:45:56 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 09, 2020, 02:04:19 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on December 09, 2020, 02:27:02 PM
9,000,000/60,000 = 150 * 2 = 300
But that's assuming they don't scale up (though remains to be seen
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: moish on December 09, 2020, 03:51:56 PM
Why are they waiting so long if it started arriving today?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 09, 2020, 05:33:00 PM
9,000,000/60,000 = 150 * 2 = 300
But that's assuming they don't scale up (though remains to be seen
I doubt more than 6-7m will get it

Why are they waiting so long if it started arriving today?
FDA approval for one; and maybe need storage facilities for points of care. It does seem oddly long though.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 09, 2020, 09:09:46 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/09/world/americas/canada-vaccine-approve.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 09, 2020, 10:15:00 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 10, 2020, 01:53:56 AM
Why are they waiting so long if it started arriving today?
Only 3-4,000 vaccines arrived. It was a test run/photo op
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on December 10, 2020, 01:58:03 AM
Well, the virus sure isnt standing on ceremony; in the meantime its inoculating upwards of 500,000 (based on 250k confirmed positives) people in the US every day....
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 10, 2020, 03:42:24 AM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on December 10, 2020, 03:27:48 PM
This is not trending in a positive direction:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/09/world/the-us-will-initially-hold-back-half-the-first-vaccine-supply.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jellybelly on December 11, 2020, 03:11:57 PM
FDA commissioner told to resign if the vaccine isnt approved today
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 11, 2020, 03:56:56 PM
FDA commissioner told to resign if the vaccine isnt approved today

So now we *are* believing anonymous sources in the WaPo? So hard to follow.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 12, 2020, 06:48:01 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/health/pfizer-vaccine-authorized.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 12, 2020, 08:27:17 PM

Sounds like a great idea to me. The US economy loses $16B/day from COVID, so having a vaccine available a month earlier is worth $350b. And you dont even have to buy the IP perpetually, you can pay them to make it public and rely on courts to enforce their patent after a year or two.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on December 12, 2020, 08:44:45 PM
Doses of Pfizers Covid-19 vaccines will start moving out within 24 hours, Gen. Gus Perna, chief operating officer of Operation Warp Speed, said Saturday.

They will begin moving vaccine from the Pfizer manufacturing facility to the UPS and FedEx hubs, and then it will go out to the 636 locations nationwide, which were identified by the states and territories, Perna told a news conference Saturday. We expect 145 sites across all the states to receive vaccine on Monday, another 425 sites on Tuesday, and the final 66 sites on Wednesday, which will complete the initial delivery of the Pfizer orders for vaccine." 
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on December 12, 2020, 08:45:31 PM
Time to update the thread title?!
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 12, 2020, 10:59:32 PM


Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Proisrael on December 13, 2020, 01:54:20 AM



Is this the normal standard to test vaccines that we receive from a pharmaceutical company? Are we worried they are sending placebos?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 13, 2020, 01:56:45 AM
Is this the normal standard to test vaccines that we receive from a pharmaceutical company? Are we worried they are sending placebos?
Sounds like a corrupt way to give some $$$ to a vendor or fear of bio-terrorism in transit
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: moish on December 13, 2020, 06:37:47 AM
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israeli-health-ministry-sets-vaccination-priorities-1001352844#utm_source=RSS

Quote
The health funds will allow people who are not in priority categories to be vaccinated from the beginning of the vaccination campaign, in accordance with their vaccinating capacity.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on December 13, 2020, 11:18:27 AM
New Jersey will administer the state's first COVID vaccines on Tuesday morning, Gov. Phil Murphy announced Sunday.

The first resident will be vaccinated at University Hospital in Newark.

Murphy said the "majority" of his state's first batch of COVID-19 vaccines will be administered to health care workers and the rest will be available to "longterm care residents and staff.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on December 14, 2020, 09:39:39 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/4xKmCQHh/06747-B73-0820-44-CB-A625-3-DD18-FFD56-CB.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on December 14, 2020, 01:29:19 PM
Not that I think anything is wrong with the vaccine, but if there was, we just inoculated this country's medical establishment. Eggs, meet basket. We call it El Unico. Get cozy.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on December 14, 2020, 01:41:57 PM
Not that I think anything is wrong with the vaccine, but if there was, we just inoculated this country's medical establishment. Eggs, meet basket. We call it El Unico. Get cozy.
You don't understand how conspiracy theories work.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yungermanchik on December 14, 2020, 02:21:07 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/4xKmCQHh/06747-B73-0820-44-CB-A625-3-DD18-FFD56-CB.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
more details here: https://abc7ny.com/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-pfizer-ny/8763858/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yuneeq on December 14, 2020, 04:06:26 PM
Eggs, meet basket. We call it El Unico. Get cozy.

Somehow I have no idea what your phrases are supposed to mean despite understanding the context.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 15, 2020, 03:30:25 PM
Somehow I have no idea what your phrases are supposed to mean despite understanding the context.

Same, Google didn't help much either.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 15, 2020, 03:41:05 PM
Same, Google didn't help much either.
I got as far as keeping all your eggs in one basket and a Mexican restaurant in Miami.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on December 17, 2020, 12:55:47 PM
UK: Speaker Lord Fowler told the House of Lords this morning that he would be leaving during proceedings for a vaccination appointment, adding jokingly "there are some advantages to being aged 82". He is the first politician in the world to receive an approved vaccination.                               
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 17, 2020, 06:08:46 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on December 17, 2020, 07:04:54 PM
A government advisory panel endorsed a second COVID-19 vaccine Thursday, paving the way for the shot to be added to the U.S. vaccination campaign.

The Food and Drug Administration is expected to follow the recommendation for the vaccine from Moderna and the National Institutes of Health. The FDA advisers, in a 20-0 vote, agreed the benefits of the vaccine outweighed the risks for those 18 years old and up.

The FDA is expected to approve the vaccine for emergency use tomorrow, Fox News reported Thursday.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: dovy2 on December 17, 2020, 07:38:31 PM
G-d forbid Trump gets all the credit.. we gotta leave some for Biden...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 18, 2020, 03:14:04 PM
Israel hoping to finish vaccinating the entire LTC population by Dec 27. Purim is gonna be lit
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 19, 2020, 08:36:48 PM
Title: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on December 19, 2020, 09:01:55 PM
Had a similar thought. A public figure admitting a mistake? What is this even?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 20, 2020, 07:09:12 PM

Some things aren't going Bill Gates's way!
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 20, 2020, 07:29:05 PM

Some things aren't going Bill Gates's way!

Wasnt Pfizers first dose pegged at 82%?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 20, 2020, 11:15:58 PM
Wasnt Pfizers first dose pegged at 82%?




Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 21, 2020, 09:44:10 AM

Some things aren't going Bill Gates's way!
Unless there is some really compelling reason not to do this, giving everyone 2 doses when 1 is (nearly) as good is essentially murder.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on December 21, 2020, 09:44:56 AM
Unless there is some really compelling reason not to do this, giving everyone 2 doses when 1 is (nearly) as good is essentially murder.
Only reason I can think of is that 1 dose wasn't as extensively studied as 2 doses.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 21, 2020, 09:48:05 AM
Only reason I can think of is that 1 dose wasn't as extensively studied as 2 doses.
It still seems so crazy, you have an option to increase immunity by nearly 100%.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on December 21, 2020, 10:06:50 AM
It still seems so crazy, you have an option to increase immunity by nearly 100%.
I don't disagree with you, but I doubt they would get FDA approval for a course that hasn't been properly studied.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: etech0 on December 21, 2020, 10:11:34 AM
Is giving the second dose in 6 months equally effective as giving it now?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on December 21, 2020, 10:12:10 AM
Is giving the second dose in 6 months equally effective as giving it now?
That would have to be studied.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 21, 2020, 10:12:25 AM
Is giving the second dose in 6 months equally effective as giving it now?
@PlatinumGuy
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on December 21, 2020, 10:24:51 AM
FWIW, on TWiV they recommended going with two doses because that's what was studied. They didn't at all entertain doing anything else
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 21, 2020, 01:06:40 PM
Is giving the second dose in 6 months equally effective as giving it now?
I don't think that was studied. There may be potential for vector immunity.

The reason 1 dose wasn't studied was because it was assumed even 2 doses would only grant ~70% immunity, so 1 dose being even less effective would be nearly useless. The surprise is that 2 doses are close to 100% protective.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on December 22, 2020, 12:59:49 AM
I don't disagree with you, but I doubt they would get FDA approval for a course that hasn't been properly studied.

The question is if they will use this info to be less extreme about holding the stretching doses in storage and rely on known future production for that.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 23, 2020, 12:59:14 AM
The question is if they will use this info to be less extreme about holding the stretching doses in storage and rely on known future production for that.
My understanding was that that was a Pfizer condition as opposed to a gov't directive.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on December 23, 2020, 01:05:12 AM
My understanding was that that was a Pfizer condition as opposed to a gov't directive.

Interesting. Did they explain why? Did Moderna make a similar condition?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 23, 2020, 06:49:18 PM
US finally ordered the 100m Pfizer doses they declined a few months ago. Expecting 170m/2 by June

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/23/pfizer-biontech-supply-coronavirus-vaccine-450216


Interesting. Did they explain why? Did Moderna make a similar condition?
Can't find information.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 23, 2020, 08:19:39 PM
US finally ordered the 100m Pfizer doses they declined a few months ago. Expecting 170m/2 by June

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/23/pfizer-biontech-supply-coronavirus-vaccine-450216

Can't find information.

Theyre suggesting they can vaccinate any American who wants one by June. With 200m vaccinations does this mean theyre expecting 100m+ Americans to decline/reject vaccinating?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 23, 2020, 08:24:19 PM
Theyre suggesting they can vaccinate any American who wants one by June. With 200m vaccinations does this mean theyre expecting 100m+ Americans to decline/reject vaccinating?
1) At least as of now it's only approved for ages 16+
2) Just because some people didn't run to get it doesn't mean they're declining to get it.
3) There will be other vaccines available between now and June to fill some of the shortfall.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 23, 2020, 08:25:42 PM
1) At least as of now it's only approved for ages 16+
2) Just because some people didn't run to get it doesn't mean they're declining to get it.
3) There will be other vaccines available between now and June to fill some of the shortfall.

All valid points, especially 1 and 3 which I hadnt considered.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 23, 2020, 08:27:33 PM
At least 1,008,025 Americans had received their first dose of the vaccine as of 9 a.m. Wednesday, according to a tally from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

There have been 9,465,725 doses distributed across the country thus far, as production of the vaccines pick up pace.

@Kobe Bryant I feel like your post belongs in this thread so Im continuing the discussion here.

Where are these numbers from? Is there an international leaderboard for vaccine doses distributed and administered, would be nice to see such data, especially alongside a population count to show % vaccinated.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 23, 2020, 08:31:09 PM
@Kobe Bryant I feel like your post belongs in this thread so Im continuing the discussion here.

Where are these numbers from? Is there an international leaderboard for vaccine doses distributed and administered, would be nice to see such data, especially alongside a population count to show % vaccinated.
Bloomberg has a comprehensive tracker https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 23, 2020, 08:41:50 PM
Bloomberg has a comprehensive tracker https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/)
I have been watching this the last few days and am horrified by the slow pace of vaccinations. Ohio has over 370k available yet only vaccinated 11k - Gov. Devine what is up with this?? Call in the National Guard do whatever it takes - there was plenty of time to prepare. Israel did 65k today - Illinois did a lot this is unconsiousable.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 23, 2020, 08:43:07 PM
North Dakota already vaccinated 1.1% of its population Ohio 0.1% At this pace we will be dealing with covid for a decade.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 23, 2020, 08:45:40 PM
I have been watching this the last few days and am horrified by the slow pace of vaccinations. Ohio has over 370k available yet only vaccinated 11k - Gov. Devine what is up with this?? Call in the National Guard do whatever it takes - there was plenty of time to prepare. Israel did 65k today - Illinois did a lot this is unconsiousable.
The way I understood it (I may be wrong), they didn't receive all 370k doses yet, they were allocated from the first PO.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 23, 2020, 08:52:02 PM
The way I understood it (I may be wrong), they didn't receive all 370k doses yet, they were allocated from the first PO.
As of Dec. 15 th there were already 100k delivered to Ohio and by now there should be the 370k available. https://governor.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/governor/media/news-and-media/covid19-update-12152020

Now for the the ones started https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/vaccination-dashboard

Its a disgrace
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 23, 2020, 09:06:57 PM
@Kobe Bryant I feel like your post belongs in this thread so Im continuing the discussion here.

Where are these numbers from? Is there an international leaderboard for vaccine doses distributed and administered, would be nice to see such data, especially alongside a population count to show % vaccinated.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Israel has since doubled to 1.5%
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 23, 2020, 09:19:47 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/23/health/vaccine-rollout-slow-data-lags/index.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 23, 2020, 09:20:28 PM
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Israel has since doubled to 1.5%

Nice, so proud of Israel. How soon will they be getting enough vaccines for the entire population?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 23, 2020, 09:23:28 PM
Nice, so proud of Israel. How soon will they be getting enough vaccines for the entire population?
https://www.timesofisrael.com/herd-immunity-by-seder-night-trailblazing-israel-vaccinating-faster-than-uk/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 23, 2020, 09:24:04 PM
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-ranks-no-1-in-covid-19-vaccine-doses-administered-per-capita-653019
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 23, 2020, 09:26:29 PM
https://www.timesofisrael.com/herd-immunity-by-seder-night-trailblazing-israel-vaccinating-faster-than-uk/

Thanks, mate. Exciting stuff, hope theyre right.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 23, 2020, 09:41:39 PM
Nice, so proud of Israel. How soon will they be getting enough vaccines for the entire population?
They don't reveal the amount of vaccines delivered, but they are ramping up vaccination for all populations so there doesn't seem to be any constraint from that side.

Israel did 65k today, by next week they are starting to vaccinate at old age homes, general population at hospital clinics, and splitting shipments to smaller vaccination points. It should hit 80-120k/day if not more.

Israel has 300k 80+ (54% of deaths), around 1.4m 60+. If you assume 60% of the vaccines are going to the correct priority groups, you need around 3m ppl to be vaccinated, which is around 30 days for dose 1 and 60 days for dose 2.

Expect Covid to be all but over by Purim once the hospitals are empty and a few consecutive days with zero deaths.

I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to get closer to 200k/day with the military setting up a few mass vaccination sites, that would mean ~6m people can get a first dose by the end of Janurary, so everybody who wants a vaccine will get it by Purim, and borders wide open for tourists from all over the world by Pesach.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 23, 2020, 11:48:36 PM
They don't reveal the amount of vaccines delivered, but they are ramping up vaccination for all populations so there doesn't seem to be any constraint from that side.

Israel did 65k today, by next week they are starting to vaccinate at old age homes, general population at hospital clinics, and splitting shipments to smaller vaccination points. It should hit 80-120k/day if not more.

Israel has 300k 80+ (54% of deaths), around 1.4m 60+. If you assume 60% of the vaccines are going to the correct priority groups, you need around 3m ppl to be vaccinated, which is around 30 days for dose 1 and 60 days for dose 2.

Expect Covid to be all but over by Purim once the hospitals are empty and a few consecutive days with zero deaths.

I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to get closer to 200k/day with the military setting up a few mass vaccination sites, that would mean ~6m people can get a first dose by the end of Janurary, so everybody who wants a vaccine will get it by Purim, and borders wide open for tourists from all over the world by Pesach.

Hopefully they have access to enough doses to sustain this scenario. Few consecutive days with zero deaths isnt going to happen immediately because RL deaths lag and there can be people already on a vent who wont recover.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 24, 2020, 12:16:42 AM
Hopefully they have access to enough doses to sustain this scenario. Few consecutive days with zero deaths isnt going to happen immediately because RL deaths lag and there can be people already on a vent who wont recover.
Hopefully before Pesach.

They still didn't even start using Moderna's vaccines, which they were getting the first batch of the Swiss production. I really don't think there will be a lack of doses in Israel. They wouldn't be going full throttle if they feared that.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: justaregularguy on December 24, 2020, 12:29:01 AM
Which country will let me get it the earliest? Looks like isreal no?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 24, 2020, 01:09:20 AM
Which country will let me get it the earliest? Looks like isreal no?
Yes Israel is giving it to anybody 60+ and very easy to hock an appointment even if younger. The problem is getting into Israel now.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 24, 2020, 01:50:28 AM
Which country will let me get it the earliest? Looks like isreal no?
Yes Israel is giving it to anybody 60+ and very easy to hock an appointment even if younger. The problem is getting into Israel now.
When will Israel allow US citizens in to get the vaccine?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 24, 2020, 04:30:35 PM
Ohio still barely doing over 6k a day https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/vaccination-dashboard - a disgrace
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on December 25, 2020, 12:00:26 AM
I have been watching this the last few days and am horrified by the slow pace of vaccinations. Ohio has over 370k available yet only vaccinated 11k - Gov. Devine what is up with this?? Call in the National Guard do whatever it takes - there was plenty of time to prepare. Israel did 65k today - Illinois did a lot this is unconsiousable.

As of Dec. 15 th there were already 100k delivered to Ohio and by now there should be the 370k available. https://governor.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/governor/media/news-and-media/covid19-update-12152020

Now for the the ones started https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/vaccination-dashboard

Its a disgrace

Ohio still barely doing over 6k a day https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/vaccination-dashboard - a disgrace

GIYF:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2020/12/22/why-ohio-behind-other-states-administering-covid-vaccines/4013177001/

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/ohio-behind-on-vaccine-shipments-but-officials-say-new-doses-on-the-way.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 25, 2020, 01:29:50 AM

210k total

On track to finish at risk population in 1-2 weeks
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on December 25, 2020, 09:11:59 AM
Yes Israel is giving it to anybody 60+ and very easy to hock an appointment even if younger. The problem is getting into Israel now.
I walked in to the kupa and they had nurses sitting their waiting for people to come, doing nothing. And extra doses available that would be thrown out end of day
They schedule 10 minutes for each vaccination appointment when in reality it takes 2 minutes
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 25, 2020, 09:42:47 AM
I walked in to the kupa and they had nurses sitting their waiting for people to come, doing nothing. And extra doses available that would be thrown out end of day
They schedule 10 minutes for each vaccination appointment when in reality it takes 2 minutes

If doses are getting wasted for reasons like that thats insane.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 25, 2020, 11:26:37 AM
Not sure this really belongs here, but it's a nice summary of real world effectiveness study of the COVID Vaccines already approved (EUA):

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness.html

I wonder how soon they'll release preliminary real-world data and how it'll match up to the phase iii data already released.

Edited to correct link
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on December 25, 2020, 11:29:00 AM
Not sure this really belongs here, but it's a nice summary of real world effectiveness study of the COVID Vaccines already approved (EUA):


I wonder how soon they'll release preliminary real-world data and how it'll match up to the phase iii data already released.
Wrong link?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: eyj on December 25, 2020, 12:00:52 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/policy/healthcare/531611-fauci-herd-immunity-could-require-90-percent-of-country-to-be-vaccinated%3famp
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 25, 2020, 12:21:14 PM
Wrong link?

Copy/paste link, will fix shortly.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 25, 2020, 12:38:21 PM
Cool link for those in any US state to see how many people are in line to get the vaccine before them:

https://dig.abclocal.go.com/ccg/interactives/vaccine-calculator/index.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 25, 2020, 01:15:28 PM
I walked in to the kupa and they had nurses sitting their waiting for people to come, doing nothing. And extra doses available that would be thrown out end of day
They schedule 10 minutes for each vaccination appointment when in reality it takes 2 minutes
Dont Pfizer doses last for a few days after defrosting? They shouldnt be throwing out at the end of the day
Not sure this really belongs here, but it's a nice summary of real world effectiveness study of the COVID Vaccines already approved (EUA):

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness.html

I wonder how soon they'll release preliminary real-world data and how it'll match up to the phase iii data already released.

Edited to correct link
Nobody got a second dose outside of trials yet
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 25, 2020, 01:17:35 PM
Nobody got a second dose outside of trials yet

Makes sense, but someone in the know has a better idea of how long this takes.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 25, 2020, 01:33:32 PM
If anything, thinking that lots of money = vaccine in a few months when its never been done in less than four years is a boich sevara. Here what some who have been in the vaccine industry for decades have to say about it:
https://www.cgdev.org/blog/vaccine-preliminary-results-here-why-we-need-exercise-caution

https://theconversation.com/fast-covid-19-vaccine-timelines-are-unrealistic-and-put-the-integrity-of-scientists-at-risk-139824

This NYT article is older but it gives some insight into the process:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html
Are these people going to admit they were dead wrong?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 25, 2020, 01:51:10 PM
I walked in to the kupa and they had nurses sitting their waiting for people to come, doing nothing. And extra doses available that would be thrown out end of day
They schedule 10 minutes for each vaccination appointment when in reality it takes 2 minutes

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/covid_19_vaccine_u_s_distribution_fact_sheet

After defrosting, vaccines can be stored for 5 days at regular refrigerator temperatures of 2-8c

If doses are getting wasted for reasons like that thats insane.
Allotting extra time per vaccination is preserving vaccines, if they would allot less time than it takes, they would run out of time before they run out of the scheduled doses.

Israel's lax prioritization is ensuring less waste. The more you limit the pool of people eligible to receive the vaccine, the harder it will be to find people to fill less likely vaccine slots - such as distant locations, odd times (some hospitals are vaccinating through the night), and surplus appointments that couldn't be guaranteed far enough in advance (staff surplus time, unpredictable no-shows, squeezing more doses out of the vials).

Israel should break 1m in a few days, 2m a week later, and get close to 3m before the second dose starts hogging capacity. Only 1.4m people over 65. Iyh Covid will be a thing of the past by Purim.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 28, 2020, 06:30:58 PM
Just wow: 470 kg of RNA to vaccinate the entire world population.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 28, 2020, 09:51:41 PM
https://t.co/e98Ywnkj4w?amp=1

Link to a private Facebook group for sharing locations in Israel that are providing excess vaccinations to anybody. Today they had some after 6pm at Yad Sarah etc
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 28, 2020, 11:25:08 PM

First government that is willing to risk giving only 1 dose, although it may be because the rest of the doses are already in transit and the number is small enough that they can rely on emergency replacements.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 29, 2020, 03:46:02 PM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/worlds-fastest-covid-inoculation-drive-israel-vaccinates-five/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 29, 2020, 03:47:47 PM
GIYF:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2020/12/22/why-ohio-behind-other-states-administering-covid-vaccines/4013177001/

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/ohio-behind-on-vaccine-shipments-but-officials-say-new-doses-on-the-way.html
Thank you - but still progressing very slow - I was hoping to watch Dwine presser today but he decided not to give one. Let us learn from Israel and get the ball rolling we had so much time to prepare for this.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 29, 2020, 04:06:40 PM
Thank you - but still progressing very slow - I was hoping to watch Dwine presser today but he decided not to give one. Let us learn from Israel and get the ball rolling we had so much time to prepare for this.
Some of it is a reporting delay.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 29, 2020, 04:16:09 PM
It seems to me that everyone should follow Israel and try to mass vaccinate - we should try our best that those who need them should get them first but if a few skip the line but we get many more vaccinated it is worth it.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 29, 2020, 04:23:02 PM
It seems to me that everyone should follow Israel and try to mass vaccinate - we should try our best that those who need them should get them first but if a few skip the line but we get many more vaccinated it is worth it.
+1.

If there is one thing Israel is a global leader on, it's cutting the line...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 29, 2020, 04:50:10 PM
It seems to me that everyone should follow Israel and try to mass vaccinate - we should try our best that those who need them should get them first but if a few skip the line but we get many more vaccinated it is worth it.
I disagree, I'd rather see high risk people vaccinated first even if it's 2 weeks after low risk people would otherwise get vaccinated. That being said, the priorities of most states are completely backwards.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 29, 2020, 05:13:58 PM
https://www.axios.com/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-december-target-418a9ba7-02e2-417d-b2dc-f552dd9d4f5d.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 29, 2020, 05:14:32 PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9096267/US-given-2-million-Americans-vaccine-doses.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 29, 2020, 05:20:51 PM
I disagree, I'd rather see high risk people vaccinated first even if it's 2 weeks after low risk people would otherwise get vaccinated. That being said, the priorities of most states are completely backwards.
also add that there is a school of thought that vaccinating the younger people who spread the virus is more beneficial.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/magazine/who-gets-covid-vaccine.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 29, 2020, 06:39:12 PM
I disagree, I'd rather see high risk people vaccinated first even if it's 2 weeks after low risk people would otherwise get vaccinated. That being said, the priorities of most states are completely backwards.
The two aren't contradictory. If at-risk people will only get vaccinated in 2 weeks anyways, we can vaccinate lower risk people in the meantime. Israel has plenty of vaccinations slots available in the the next 24h for anybody over 60 who is interested. Only 20% of that cohort is already vaccinated but most people just don't move quickly enough. They will go on Friday when it is convenient for them.

The US is placing way too much emphasis that people shouldn't get vaccinated out of order, and it's hurting all of us. It's the type of PC that Trump was supposed to get rid of.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Afrages6 on December 29, 2020, 06:47:29 PM
The two aren't contradictory. If at-risk people will only get vaccinated in 2 weeks anyways, we can vaccinate lower risk people in the meantime. Israel has plenty of vaccinations slots available in the the next 24h for anybody over 60 who is interested. Only 20% of that cohort is already vaccinated but most people just don't move quickly enough. They will go on Friday when it is convenient for them.

The US is placing way too much emphasis that people shouldn't get vaccinated out of order, and it's hurting all of us. It's the type of PC that Trump was supposed to get rid of.
Can never waste an opportunity to take a shot a Trump huh, if they made it first come first serve youd be screaming that Trump is a murderer. You make fair points but the invocation of trump at every turn is quite ridiculous
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on December 29, 2020, 07:27:41 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2931EJ

"The effort to distribute and administer the vaccine is not progressing as it should," Biden said in Wilmington, Delaware. At the current rate, "it's going to take years, not months, to vaccinate the American people."

Hyperbole?

Either way, the new variant will likely have quite an impact before a full vaccine rollout has a chance to stop it.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 29, 2020, 07:39:52 PM
Adequately vaccinating Americans will take 10 years at current pace

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/current-rate-it-ll-be-10-years-americans-adequately-vaccinated-n1252486
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on December 29, 2020, 07:42:55 PM
Let's move to Eretz Yisrael. Isn't that where we all belong anyway?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 29, 2020, 07:43:54 PM
Can never waste an opportunity to take a shot a Trump huh, if they made it first come first serve youd be screaming that Trump is a murderer. You make fair points but the invocation of trump at every turn is quite ridiculous
Never hurts to push his buttons - If Trump feels his legacy is on the line he will do what it takes to get things moving. The situation is so disappointing given that there was time to prepare even though the vaccine provides logistical challenges.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 29, 2020, 07:44:51 PM
Let's move to Eretz Yisrael. Isn't that where we all belong anyway?
Depends who you ask
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 29, 2020, 07:45:34 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on December 29, 2020, 07:54:45 PM
Depends who you ask

So I'm asking you 😉.

I doubt everyone is running there anyway (unless they already had it in their plans or Mashiach comes), but its just shameful that it should even be a discussion that vaccinating will take 10 years. I'm sure it will be faster but we just need to see it happening.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 29, 2020, 07:56:04 PM
So I'm asking you 😉.

Nobody is running there anyway, but its just shameful that it should even be a discussion that it'll take 10 years. I'm sure it will be faster but we just need to see it happening.
Nobody really thinks it will take 10 years, the point is just to illustrate how slow the current rate is.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 29, 2020, 08:10:54 PM
The two aren't contradictory. If at-risk people will only get vaccinated in 2 weeks anyways, we can vaccinate lower risk people in the meantime. Israel has plenty of vaccinations slots available in the the next 24h for anybody over 60 who is interested. Only 20% of that cohort is already vaccinated but most people just don't move quickly enough. They will go on Friday when it is convenient for them.

The US is placing way too much emphasis that people shouldn't get vaccinated out of order, and it's hurting all of us. It's the type of PC that Trump was supposed to get rid of.
This is not Israel with 9m residents, soon enough demand (even with the restrictions) will outpace supply. You make it seem like a dose not given today is going in the garbage when in reality it's going to someone on the priority list albeit at a slower pace than ideal so far.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 29, 2020, 09:00:44 PM





This is not Israel with 9m residents, soon enough demand (even with the restrictions) will outpace supply. You make it seem like a dose not given today is going in the garbage when in reality it's going to someone on the priority list albeit at a slower pace than ideal so far.
You make it seem like a dose given today to a 30yo is a dose taken away from an 80yo, when there are 10s of millions of doses sitting in warehouses.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 29, 2020, 09:05:17 PM
You make it seem like a dose given today to a 30yo is a dose taken away from an 80yo, when there are 10s of millions of doses sitting in warehouses.
It is. As we're already seeing, they're picking up speed and before you know it there won't be millions of doses sitting around.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on December 30, 2020, 02:50:51 PM
UK switching to 1 dose of Pfizer

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on December 30, 2020, 03:15:22 PM
UK switching to 1 dose of Pfizer


This is bad. The AZN vaccine (when administered as 1+1) is only 62% effective, presumably even lower than that for 1 dose. Any published figures?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on December 30, 2020, 03:25:07 PM
This is bad. The AZN vaccine (when administered as 1+1) is only 62% effective, presumably even lower than that for 1 dose. Any published figures?
I understood this to be 2 vaccine announcements, but the second announcement is not necessarily referring to AZN.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 30, 2020, 04:55:35 PM
Ohio is catching up eith its neighbors not because they are duing great but rather the USA is still painfully slow in rolling them out.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 30, 2020, 05:31:05 PM
On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Ohios vaccine rollout was moving relatively slow. While about 19.3% of vaccines had been used nationwide as of Dec. 21, according to Bloomberg, Ohio had used only 14.3% of its vaccine allotment.

DeWine declined to assign blame for the slow rollout, saying that the state was starting up an altogether new, large-scale vaccine program. The state's dashboard also is likely undercounting the true number of vaccines administered because some hospitals had trouble uploading data, he said.

Health care workers and those living and working in nursing homes and assisted living facilities already are receiving the vaccine, but DeWine said he had grown impatient with the pace of those who have been vaccinated.

On Wednesday, DeWine said he had a "candid discussion" with hospitals to talk about speeding up the rollout. He wants them to administer vaccines within 24 hours of receiving them and then update their records with the state within the day after.

Im just not satisfied with where we are in Ohio. Were not moving fast enough. But were going to get there. Were going to speed this thing up," he said.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/government/2020/12/30/gov-mike-dewine-give-final-scheduled-covid-19-briefing-wednesday/4056984001/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on December 31, 2020, 11:44:28 AM
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/americas-vaccine-rollout-disaster.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on December 31, 2020, 12:22:20 PM
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/americas-vaccine-rollout-disaster.html
Shameful.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on December 31, 2020, 12:39:28 PM
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/americas-vaccine-rollout-disaster.html
I thought you were the good news guy :(
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 01, 2021, 10:20:57 AM
NJ not doing any better - no surprise as Murphy is still in charge
https://www.app.com/story/news/coronavirus/2020/12/31/nj-covid-vaccine-who-gets-next/4099287001/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 01, 2021, 10:32:36 AM
NJ not doing any better - no surprise as Murphy is still in charge
https://www.app.com/story/news/coronavirus/2020/12/31/nj-covid-vaccine-who-gets-next/4099287001/
At least NJ has an explanation, they missed some deadline to start vaccinating nursing home residents. I think they're starting next week.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 01, 2021, 10:47:37 AM
At least NJ has an explanation, they missed some deadline to start vaccinating nursing home residents. I think they're starting next week.
TOT - We are looking for results not excuses - they had plenty of time to prepare.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 01, 2021, 10:51:57 AM
TOT - We are looking for results not excuses - they had plenty of time to prepare.
You have too much faith in government pre-planning.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 01, 2021, 11:04:09 AM
You have too much faith in government pre-planning.
You are 100% right - I wish they would have contracted it out to amazon and you would see how quickly it would get done. Here in Ohio there are USPS delay of 3 weeks plus on some packages - an Amazon even when there is a delay (too often) it comes a day or two later I wonder why?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on January 01, 2021, 11:16:58 AM
TOT - We are looking for results not excuses - they had plenty of time to prepare.

TOT = ?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: TimT on January 01, 2021, 11:36:57 AM
TOT = ?
Totally off topic ?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on January 01, 2021, 11:43:01 AM
TOT = ?
Tuchis oifen tish
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 01, 2021, 12:54:25 PM
Tuchis oifen tish
We need to add this here https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=10531.0 and here https://wiki.dansdeals.com/Acronyms
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on January 01, 2021, 12:59:27 PM
We need to add this here https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=10531.0 and here https://wiki.dansdeals.com/Acronyms

I added to that thread ;). Don't know how to put into Wiki.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 01, 2021, 12:59:37 PM
How complicated is it to set up 500 vaccination sites around the US, each staffed with 50 people and vaccinating a few thousand ppl per day?

US economy loses $16B every day from Covid. $16B would pay $32m for each of 500 sites...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on January 01, 2021, 01:04:00 PM
How complicated is it to set up 500 vaccination sites around the US, each staffed with 50 people and vaccinating a few thousand ppl per day?

US economy loses $16B every day from Covid. $16B would pay $32m for each of 500 sites...

As difficult and complicated as it is to pass legislation?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: TimT on January 01, 2021, 01:22:21 PM
US economy loses $16B every day from Covid. $16B would pay $32m for each of 500 sites...
This is not how government crunches numbers.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 01, 2021, 01:33:46 PM
How complicated is it to set up 500 vaccination sites around the US, each staffed with 50 people and vaccinating a few thousand ppl per day?

US economy loses $16B every day from Covid. $16B would pay $32m for each of 500 sites...

These sites won't make COVID disappear without:
1. Ample vaccine supply - at 1m+ doses/day at these sites Pfizer/Moderna might not supply enough to keep it going full steam
2. Demand - Thousands of unvaccinated people need to show up daily at each of these sites, but not too many or they'll leave and lost hope and not show up once again once demand starts to dwindle
3. Staffing and logistical process - With bureaucracy this would take time to set up efficiently and ramp up
4. Sites would need to be moved to locations with unvaccinated people once the local population is vaccinated or not interested and there are areas with higher demand.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 01, 2021, 03:31:40 PM
As difficult and complicated as it is to pass legislation?
It ain't difficult to pass legalization. Lobbyists get the most random legislations passed all day long.
These sites won't make COVID disappear without:
1. Ample vaccine supply - at 1m+ doses/day at these sites Pfizer/Moderna might not supply enough to keep it going full steam
2. Demand - Thousands of unvaccinated people need to show up daily at each of these sites, but not too many or they'll leave and lost hope and not show up once again once demand starts to dwindle
3. Staffing and logistical process - With bureaucracy this would take time to set up efficiently and ramp up
4. Sites would need to be moved to locations with unvaccinated people once the local population is vaccinated or not interested and there are areas with higher demand.


There is no shortage of demand. As it is in Florida 80yo are waiting for 10+ hours. There are at least 50m people in the US who would wait 5 hours for a vaccine.

Covid isn't going away so fast, but vaccinating 10-20m high risk people will reduce most of the hospital overload and allow economies to reopen.

You offer $10m initial set up reward, you will have thousands of sites set up in a few days. You only need a few hundred government agents to verify compliance, there is no shortage of Federal & state agencies that can oversee it.

This is not how government crunches numbers.
Pray tell why not?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on January 02, 2021, 08:31:08 PM
It ain't difficult to pass legalization.

This latest piece of COVID legislation seemed mighty difficult to most of us.

Lobbyists get the most random legislations passed all day long.

So get the lobbyists on this case. I'm all for it.

My point was that any time the government is involved in anything it becomes complicated and difficult. Unfortunately.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 02, 2021, 08:44:07 PM
This latest piece of COVID legislation seemed might difficult to most of us.

Lol. Passing sensible legislation is easy. Bullying the senate into taking a trillion dollars from American tax payers and giving it to poorer but not desperate people is difficult. Believe it or not Republicans, and especially their mega donors, play politics specifically for the purpose of blocking things like this.

We want our freedom from the government sticking its hand into our pocket and confiscating our money to bribe poorer voters.

The Republicans made a grave mistake of empowering an unprincipled conman who couldnt care less about conservative values, and managed to irreversibly splinter their base.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on January 03, 2021, 10:59:50 AM
On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Ohios vaccine rollout was moving relatively slow. While about 19.3% of vaccines had been used nationwide as of Dec. 21, according to Bloomberg, Ohio had used only 14.3% of its vaccine allotment.

DeWine declined to assign blame for the slow rollout, saying that the state was starting up an altogether new, large-scale vaccine program. The state's dashboard also is likely undercounting the true number of vaccines administered because some hospitals had trouble uploading data, he said.

Health care workers and those living and working in nursing homes and assisted living facilities already are receiving the vaccine, but DeWine said he had grown impatient with the pace of those who have been vaccinated.

On Wednesday, DeWine said he had a "candid discussion" with hospitals to talk about speeding up the rollout. He wants them to administer vaccines within 24 hours of receiving them and then update their records with the state within the day after.

Im just not satisfied with where we are in Ohio. Were not moving fast enough. But were going to get there. Were going to speed this thing up," he said.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/government/2020/12/30/gov-mike-dewine-give-final-scheduled-covid-19-briefing-wednesday/4056984001/
At 52.3%, OH is now number 2 in the nation (behind CT at 64.6%)) in % of available vaccines administered.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 03, 2021, 11:02:02 AM
At 52.3%, OH is now number 2 in the nation (behind CT at 64.6%)) in % of available vaccines administered.

So they caught up, or there was never an issue in the first place?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on January 03, 2021, 11:03:38 AM
So they caught up, or there was never an issue in the first place?
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=118770.msg2378434#msg2378434
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 03, 2021, 11:48:43 AM
So they caught up, or there was never an issue in the first place?
BH - however I still feel there is too much of an emphasis being put on making sure that no one gets out of line then vaccinating people. Nothing is going to happen if a few over 75+ gats vaccinated even if they are not in a nursing home. We should look to Israel to see how it is getting done. They are putting the main emphasis on getting people vaccinated.
Not sure why there are still no vaccinations being done on holidays and weekends this is a state of emergency. There should be extended hours etc. etc.
Also the fact that those with antibodies are not being made to wait is highly questionable to say the least.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: TimT on January 03, 2021, 11:56:59 AM
Not sure why there are still no vaccinations being done on holidays and weekends this is a state of emergency.
Criminal if true
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 03, 2021, 01:24:18 PM
Criminal if true

Even the daily US vaccination charts show a significant dip during the weekends.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 03, 2021, 01:26:18 PM
BH - however I still feel there is too much of an emphasis being put on making sure that no one gets out of line then vaccinating people. Nothing is going to happen if a few over 75+ gats vaccinated even if they are not in a nursing home. We should look to Israel to see how it is getting done. They are putting the main emphasis on getting people vaccinated.
Not sure why there are still no vaccinations being done on holidays and weekends this is a state of emergency. There should be extended hours etc. etc.
Also the fact that those with antibodies are not being made to wait is highly questionable to say the least.

I agree its too much of an emphasis, same with Cuomo in NY.

At the same time, you cant compare to Israel because they have ample/steady supply to vaccinate nearly everyone within 3-4 months. Here in the US where supply is so scarce, priority is more significant.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on January 03, 2021, 03:17:38 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 03, 2021, 03:52:05 PM
I agree its too much of an emphasis, same with Cuomo in NY.

At the same time, you cant compare to Israel because they have ample/steady supply to vaccinate nearly everyone within 3-4 months. Here in the US where supply is so scarce, priority is more significant.
This. It's not the actual injection that's delayed, it's getting the vaccines to the locations they're being administered. If a nursing home is scheduled to receive the vaccine, it really doesn't make a difference if it's administered on Saturday or they wait another 2 days until Monday.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 03, 2021, 04:14:54 PM
This. It's not the actual injection that's delayed, it's getting the vaccines to the locations they're being administered. If a nursing home is scheduled to receive the vaccine, it really doesn't make a difference if it's administered on Saturday or they wait another 2 days until Monday.
Why not you are delaying them being immune for another 2 days where is the sense of urgency?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on January 03, 2021, 08:01:31 PM
Passing sensible legislation is easy. Bullying the senate into taking a trillion dollars from American tax payers and giving it to poorer but not desperate people is difficult.

We want our freedom from the government sticking its hand into our pocket and confiscating our money to bribe poorer voters.
Very true.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 03, 2021, 08:25:23 PM
irreversibly splinter their base.
why do you say that?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 03, 2021, 09:45:50 PM
why do you say that?
Trump has a solid grip on at least 10% of the GOP voters, likely closer to 30%. They will no longer be able to join moderate Republicans and especially Independents.

Do you have any doubt what will happen if Ivanka Trump runs against Marco Rubio?

Loeffler & Perdue are forced to either side with Cruz & his 11 Trumpsters, or the GA Governor and the mainstream GOP, and lost support from the opposite group? Look how the polls shifted dramatically in the D favor

Do you really think 2024 debates won't force candidates to take a position if Biden is or isn't the real president?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 03, 2021, 10:15:46 PM
Trump has a solid grip on at least 10% of the GOP voters, likely closer to 30%. They will no longer be able to join moderate Republicans and especially Independents.

Do you have any doubt what will happen if Ivanka Trump runs against Marco Rubio?

Loeffler & Perdue are forced to either side with Cruz & his 11 Trumpsters, or the GA Governor and the mainstream GOP, and lost support from the opposite group? Look how the polls shifted dramatically in the D favor

Do you really think 2024 debates won't force candidates to take a position if Biden is or isn't the real president?
Meh
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Afrages6 on January 03, 2021, 10:21:36 PM
Trump has a solid grip on at least 10% of the GOP voters, likely closer to 30%. They will no longer be able to join moderate Republicans and especially Independents.

Do you have any doubt what will happen if Ivanka Trump runs against Marco Rubio?

Loeffler & Perdue are forced to either side with Cruz & his 11 Trumpsters, or the GA Governor and the mainstream GOP, and lost support from the opposite group? Look how the polls shifted dramatically in the D favor

Do you really think 2024 debates won't force candidates to take a position if Biden is or isn't the real president?
You put waaaay too much stock into the Donald.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 03, 2021, 10:43:26 PM
You put waaaay too much stock into the Donald.
Let's come back to this on Jan 6.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 03, 2021, 10:58:35 PM
Back on topic:

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-swiss/lonza-gets-swiss-ok-to-start-moderna-vaccine-production-paper-idUSKBN29808X

Lonza can produce 800k Moderna vaccines per day. It sounds like they may need to wait for the EU regulator OK before the Spanish company can finalize the doses. Israel is supposed to get the first batch.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 03, 2021, 11:17:10 PM
Let's come back to this on Jan 6.

How is that date significant in 2024?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 03, 2021, 11:22:17 PM
How is that date significant in 2024?
Jan 6 2021 will be a show of what's coming
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 03, 2021, 11:26:55 PM
Jan 6 2021 will be a show of what's coming
How so?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 04, 2021, 09:40:28 AM
How so?
Georgia Senate Runoffs
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 04, 2021, 09:52:53 AM
Georgia Senate Runoffs

How will that be a show of whether or not anything is irreparable?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 04, 2021, 09:53:33 AM
Why not you are delaying them being immune for another 2 days where is the sense of urgency?
It's not like this is delaying the entire vaccination program by 2 days, it's delaying the people who would be able to get it on Saturday and instead get it on Monday. All of this is at most barely relevant when the issue is getting vaccines to the point of delivery.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 04, 2021, 10:50:30 AM
How will that be a show of whether or not anything is irreparable?
I am assuming that Platinumguy means that this will be the first litmus test of Trump's power and influence after the election.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: TimT on January 04, 2021, 11:03:09 AM
I am assuming that Platinumguy means that this will be the first litmus test of Trump's power and influence after the election.
I think the reverse is true. After this most trump voters will move on. Yes, theres always going to be a few holdouts, like the proud boys & others. Theyll make gatherings & protests. But the majority will move on. Wasnt too long ago that the tea party was going to destroy the Republican Party & cause them to never win an election again.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 04, 2021, 11:05:23 AM
I am assuming that Platinumguy means that this will be the first litmus test of Trump's power and influence after the election.


Right now he is still president. This will show nothing about what will be 4 years after he is nothing more than the grouchy uncle in FL.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on January 04, 2021, 06:59:33 PM
A whole lot of experts STILL think that the end of 2021 is likely  the most realistic date to expect immunizations to bring us to herd immunity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/04/health-202-when-will-2021-feel-normal-again-here-what-eight-experts-predict/?outputType=amp
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 04, 2021, 07:16:11 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on January 04, 2021, 07:37:07 PM
https://apnews.com/article/milwaukee-us-news-wisconsin-coronavirus-pandemic-ac00faee3cf10a9558665d472123b96c
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 04, 2021, 10:15:44 PM

After 1 week of administering the Pfizer vaccine, Israel check 300 people, and 10 developed antibodies. After a second week they checked 81 people and 41 of them had antibodies.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 05, 2021, 12:42:25 AM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 05, 2021, 01:37:16 AM
If you thought the US was bad

Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: TimT on January 05, 2021, 01:43:51 AM
Has anyone even bothered justifying this ?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 05, 2021, 02:51:54 AM

After 1 week of administering the Pfizer vaccine, Israel check 300 people, and 10 developed antibodies. After a second week they checked 81 people and 41 of them had antibodies.
Isn't this surprising?  If Pfizer claims that immunity is shown by day 12 or so, wouldn't you expect antibodies to be found in something closer to 100% after two weeks?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 05, 2021, 06:43:31 AM
Isn't this surprising?  If Pfizer claims that immunity is shown by day 12 or so, wouldn't you expect antibodies to be found in something closer to 100% after two weeks?
People who get the virus don't either have antibodies right away.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on January 05, 2021, 06:46:26 AM
Isn't this surprising?  If Pfizer claims that immunity is shown by day 12 or so, wouldn't you expect antibodies to be found in something closer to 100% after two weeks?
Do older people take longer to produce antibodies? Most people who took the vaccine in Israel were over 60. I'm assuming the trial was more of mix, if not skewed towards younger people.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 05, 2021, 08:21:42 AM
If you thought the US was bad

Invalid Tweet ID?s=21

This is literally the outcome of Cuomo's stupidity but I don't expect you to realize that.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on January 05, 2021, 10:48:16 AM
Everyone I know who are running to get the vaccine, (and some seniors I know are flying in to FL) are those who were hiding out in their basements anyhow for nine months and werent spreading it anyway. If anything it would make more sense to give it to the people who are running around saying covid shmovid. They are the ones who are potential spreaders.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Moshe123 on January 05, 2021, 11:04:48 AM
Everyone I know who are running to get the vaccine, (and some seniors I know are flying in to FL) are those who were hiding out in their basements anyhow for nine months and werent spreading it anyway. If anything it would make more sense to give it to the people who are running around saying covid shmovid. They are the ones who are potential spreaders.

Get the old people vaccinated and nobody will care if younger unvaccinated people just get the flu and recover nicely. Everything would open in this perfect situation.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on January 05, 2021, 11:17:33 AM
Get the old people vaccinated and nobody will care if younger unvaccinated people just get the flu and recover nicely. Everything would open in this perfect situation.
Except it's not like the flu for young people either.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 05, 2021, 11:18:00 AM
Get the old people vaccinated and nobody will care if younger unvaccinated people just get the flu and recover nicely. Everything would open in this perfect situation.
Tell that to my office manager in her 30s who said that COVID was more painful than childbirth.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 05, 2021, 11:27:41 AM
Isn't this surprising?  If Pfizer claims that immunity is shown by day 12 or so, wouldn't you expect antibodies to be found in something closer to 100% after two weeks?
Immunity can precede detectable antibodies. Think about it like this - if it takes 30 days to develop antibodies, after 10 days youre 30% there. If the virus hits when the body is already 30% prepared, outcomes will be much better...

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 05, 2021, 11:45:15 AM
Immunity can precede detectable antibodies. Think about it like this - if it takes 30 days to develop antibodies, after 10 days youre 30% there. If the virus hits when the body is already 30% prepared, outcomes will be much better...


Prime example is recovering before detectable antibodies show up.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 05, 2021, 12:29:03 PM
Everyone I know who are running to get the vaccine, (and some seniors I know are flying in to FL) are those who were hiding out in their basements anyhow for nine months and werent spreading it anyway. If anything it would make more sense to give it to the people who are running around saying covid shmovid. They are the ones who are potential spreaders.

That argument has certainly been made (you can read more about it in the Wired article I posted in this forum).

One counter argument on the micro level: שלא יהא חוטא נשכר. But then again, not everyone who moves around much is careless, some movers and shakers (who dont meet the official definition of essential ) do take precautions.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: TimT on January 05, 2021, 12:31:43 PM
That argument has certainly been made (you can read more about it in the Wired article I posted in this forum).

One counter argument on the micro level: שלא יהא חוטא נשכר. But then again, not everyone who moves around much is careless, some movers and shakers (who dont meet the official definition of essential ) do take precautions.
Although in this case its not as much rewarding the חוטא as it is to prevent him potentially killing someone.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 05, 2021, 04:08:49 PM
The rollout is still very slow in some places like OH the daily numbers are going down instead of up. Drastic action should be taken immediately.

I wish there was a way for a private company to purchase the vaccine directly and give out for profit without taking away from anyone else. Why should the private sector be different then a foreign government?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 05, 2021, 04:15:05 PM
The rollout is still very slow in some places like OH the daily numbers are going down instead of up. Drastic action should be taken immediately.

I wish there was a way for a private company to purchase the vaccine directly and give out for profit without taking away from anyone else. Why should private industry be different then a foreign government?
When you take into account holidays & weekends and reporting delays the numbers are clearly going up.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 05, 2021, 04:45:12 PM
When you take into account holidays & weekends and reporting delays the numbers are clearly going up.

Below are the numbers for Cuyahoga county.

Cuyahoga   12/14/2020   1
Cuyahoga   12/15/2020   0
Cuyahoga   12/16/2020   346
Cuyahoga   12/17/2020   310
Cuyahoga   12/18/2020   678
Cuyahoga   12/19/2020   20
Cuyahoga   12/20/2020   1
Cuyahoga   12/21/2020   929
Cuyahoga   12/22/2020   849
Cuyahoga   12/23/2020   2249
Cuyahoga   12/24/2020   1150
Cuyahoga   12/25/2020   79
Cuyahoga   12/26/2020   731
Cuyahoga   12/27/2020   621
Cuyahoga   12/28/2020   1671
Cuyahoga   12/29/2020   3507
Cuyahoga   12/30/2020   3279
Cuyahoga   12/31/2020   1458
Cuyahoga   1/1/2021   15
Cuyahoga   1/2/2021   485
Cuyahoga   1/3/2021   38
Cuyahoga   1/4/2021   305
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 05, 2021, 05:19:52 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 05, 2021, 07:58:33 PM
Below are the numbers for Cuyahoga county.

Cuyahoga   12/14/2020   1
Cuyahoga   12/15/2020   0
Cuyahoga   12/16/2020   346
Cuyahoga   12/17/2020   310
Cuyahoga   12/18/2020   678
Cuyahoga   12/19/2020   20
Cuyahoga   12/20/2020   1
Cuyahoga   12/21/2020   929
Cuyahoga   12/22/2020   849
Cuyahoga   12/23/2020   2249
Cuyahoga   12/24/2020   1150
Cuyahoga   12/25/2020   79
Cuyahoga   12/26/2020   731
Cuyahoga   12/27/2020   621
Cuyahoga   12/28/2020   1671
Cuyahoga   12/29/2020   3507
Cuyahoga   12/30/2020   3279
Cuyahoga   12/31/2020   1458
Cuyahoga   1/1/2021   15
Cuyahoga   1/2/2021   485
Cuyahoga   1/3/2021   38
Cuyahoga   1/4/2021   305
Are you trying to prove my point? It's very clearly increasing. The last few days don't count because there's a reporting lag.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 06, 2021, 08:16:08 AM
After 1 week of administering the Pfizer vaccine, Israel check 300 people, and 10 developed antibodies. After a second week they checked 81 people and 41 of them had antibodies.
I was surprised that if immunity is shown by day 12 or so, I would have expected pretty much everyone to have antibodies by the end of the second week.  I had thought that antibodies generally are usually produced within a week of exposure to a virus or a vaccine, and I had posted that back in June:
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116311.msg2280843#msg2280843

So I looked up some numbers for the time course of antibody production in the specific case of Covid:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41415-020-2228-9
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence/immune-responses
So I think my mistake was that I was including all antibodies, and the Israelis probably measured the more important IgG, and those do take longer to appear.  Also, the numbers I gave earlier (5-10 days) probably referred to the earliest onset of antibody production, while the median onset would be later.  So considering that, the Israel report shouldn't be surprising.  Also, as @yelped suggests, it could be that antibody production takes longer in the older population they were studying, and as @PlatinumGuy says (I think) that antibodies might be there earlier, but not detectable by our assays.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 08, 2021, 11:06:08 AM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 08, 2021, 11:24:19 AM

Is this more "science"? What are Fauci, Birx, and other experts saying?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 08, 2021, 11:51:53 AM
Is this more "science"? What are Fauci, Birx, and other experts saying?
From what I know, the balance of Professional opinion and data leans towards maintaining the tested 2 does regimen.

What they could and should do IMO is test a single dose regimen.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 08, 2021, 12:25:46 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-vaccine-delays.html

For two weeks, more than half of the supply sat in freezers. At other clinics in the city, small numbers of unused doses have even been thrown out.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 08, 2021, 12:34:47 PM
From what I know, the balance of Professional opinion and data leans towards maintaining the tested 2 does regimen.

What they could and should do IMO is test a single dose regimen.

Wouldn't that take too long?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 08, 2021, 12:36:11 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-vaccine-delays.html

For two weeks, more than half of the supply sat in freezers. At other clinics in the city, small numbers of unused doses have even been thrown out.
Horrible
Wouldn't that take too long?
We should still start. There is no telling how long immunity lasts and how many vaccines we will ultimately need
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 08, 2021, 12:46:00 PM
Horrible
This is literally the outcome of Cuomo's stupidity but I don't expect you to realize that.
There was no other place for this to end up. Start penalizing them for this and they stop administering the vaccine altogether.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 08, 2021, 12:50:19 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yuneeq on January 08, 2021, 04:27:53 PM
https://covid19.nj.gov/faqs/nj-information/slowing-the-spread/where-how-and-when-can-i-get-vaccinated

Good news as of yesterday - seniors ages 75+ in NJ can now get vaccinated, which for some reason I havent seen it publicized. Practically speaking I wonder where they can sign up to get vaccinated.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Mf1 on January 09, 2021, 07:43:19 PM
In ny, now that they are officially entering 1b that includes teachers, does that officially include special ed. Paras?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on January 09, 2021, 07:55:55 PM
From what I know, the balance of Professional opinion and data leans towards maintaining the tested 2 does regimen.

What they could and should do IMO is test a single dose regimen.

This isn't about switching to 1 dose. It's about relying on future production for the second dose.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Moshe123 on January 09, 2021, 09:38:09 PM
Pfizer has no financial incentive to test one dose...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 09, 2021, 09:40:52 PM
Pfizer has no financial incentive to test one dose...
They would make much more money charging twice the price for the 1st dose and selling twice as many. Any way, competent government can run a trial without them or just buy the IP.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 09, 2021, 10:35:00 PM
They would make much more money charging twice the price for the 1st dose and selling twice as many. Any way, competent government can run a trial without them or just buy the IP.

Maybe, but Pfizers expertise here (manufacturing know how and mRNA IP) goes beyond the COVID vaccine and is something theyre likely holding close to their chest for that reason.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 09, 2021, 10:35:57 PM
Maybe, but Pfizers expertise here (manufacturing know how and mRNA IP) goes beyond the COVID vaccine and is something theyre likely holding close to their chest for that reason.
I agree, that appears to be the case. We can buy out Pfizer though. Give shareholders 1.5x market value.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 09, 2021, 11:33:24 PM
I agree, that appears to be the case. We can buy out Pfizer though. Give shareholders 1.5x market value.

Never gonna happen. Besides, the federal government hostile takeover of a public company sounds like a bad precedent.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on January 09, 2021, 11:35:27 PM
Never gonna happen. Besides, the federal government hostile takeover of a public company sounds like a bad precedent.
Why does it need to be hostile?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 09, 2021, 11:36:53 PM
Why does it need to be hostile?

If the government started buying up shares on the open market Pfizer might cost them more than 1.5x current market cap. But maybe I used the wrong term.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 09, 2021, 11:47:16 PM
I'm sure there's a deal to be made for the IP if the government would be interested. Remember putting the technology in the public domain for further R&D can be extremely beneficial to society. The bigger question to me is how much untaped manufacturing capacity exists outside of the current companies.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on January 11, 2021, 11:56:35 PM
WHO says not in 2021
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/covid-herd-immunity-will-not-happen-in-2021-says-who/a-56197701
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on January 12, 2021, 12:03:47 AM
WHO says not in 2021
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/covid-herd-immunity-will-not-happen-in-2021-says-who/a-56197701
WHO?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 12, 2021, 12:18:40 AM
WHO?

World Health Organization, not to be trusted on anything related to COVID, maybe on anything at all.

Though theyre absolutely right about this, especially in the 3rd world.
Title: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on January 12, 2021, 12:33:52 AM
WHO says not in 2021
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/covid-herd-immunity-will-not-happen-in-2021-says-who/a-56197701
Was "global herd immunity" really your intent behind the OP?? Because, until recent posts, that clearly wasn't the subject under debate.

ETA: apparently I'm wrong - you've been beating this drum most of this thread. Though seems like the rest of the participants here have been focusing on US/Israel.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on January 12, 2021, 11:01:06 AM
Was "global herd immunity" really your intent behind the OP??
No.
True but there are still a lot of hurdles.
https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/merck-ceo-ken-frazier-speaks-about-a-covid-cure-racism-and-why-leaders-need-to-walk-the-talk
 I think when people tell the public that there's going to be a vaccine by the end of 2020, for example, I think they do a grave disservice to the public.

Some are saying mid 2021 but thats still the better part of a year.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24U0WN
It does appear that as OP began to realize his prediction was way off he started shifting arguments to global immunity. But the subject under dispute early was clearly whether or not there would be a mass produced vaccine.

In other news, hows the second wave length prediction doing?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 12, 2021, 12:14:44 PM
Cuomo says NY eligibility to expand to 65+ but he expects demand to exceed supply (which means you might be eligible but you'll have to wait for a vaccine to be available to you:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/cuomo-says-new-york-will-accept-new-federal-guidance-opening-covid-vaccine-eligibility-to-65.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: av83 on January 12, 2021, 02:33:53 PM
Where can a 70+ (NY Resident) get a vaccine in NY or NJ Asap?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 12, 2021, 02:47:55 PM
Where can a 70+ (NY Resident) get a vaccine in NY or NJ Asap?
Ask your health care provider. 
Maybe this will help:
https://vaccinefinder.nyc.gov/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yungermanchik on January 12, 2021, 02:54:10 PM
Where can a 70+ (NY Resident) get a vaccine in NY or NJ Asap?
go to each of the various websites and reload every so often until a cancelation causes a slot to open up and quickly sign up.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Tobias129 on January 12, 2021, 03:40:27 PM
Looking to get my parents in their 70's vaccinated in MD area any ideas?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 12, 2021, 07:55:53 PM
Johnson & Johnsons phase III data should be out shortly, cant wait to see the results:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-could-alter-the-course-of-the-pandemic-investors-will-soon-know-if-it-works-51610459381

Anyone read anything recent about this vaccine that isnt stated in this article?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on January 12, 2021, 08:20:51 PM
The fact that they're planning to submit to the FDA on 1/21 - day after the inauguration when all problems will go away - makes me optimistic.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 13, 2021, 12:19:14 AM
The fact that they're planning to submit to the FDA on 1/21 - day after the inauguration when all problems will go away - makes me optimistic.

I dont think that was the plan, thats when this article states they expect to have enough data, but it could take a bit longer and theyll submit to FDA in February.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on January 13, 2021, 10:43:21 AM
No.It does appear that as OP began to realize his prediction was way off he started shifting arguments to global immunity. But the subject under dispute early was clearly whether or not there would be a mass produced vaccine.

In other news, hows the second wave length prediction doing?

https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

Can any places other than China keep up social distancing protocols for another 15 months? Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?

I dont think I could have been clearer.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on January 13, 2021, 11:42:10 AM
I dont think that was the plan, thats when this article states they expect to have enough data, but it could take a bit longer and theyll submit to FDA in February.

From the article you cited:

Bloomberg also reported on Monday that the study would be ready to submit to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization on Jan. 21, citing a report in a South African newspaper.

I read that as saying they'll be actually submitting for approval it at that time. But even if they'll only have the data to release then but won't apply to the FDA until later (why wait?), I would assume they'll still want the headlines on "Isru Chag" to be positive and upbeat.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 13, 2021, 12:10:23 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 13, 2021, 12:43:04 PM

Yes, though the data will lag by months due to time it takes to build immunity and the lag of death data. Also, this assumes case counts outside nursing homes remain level, of those keep rising...

Also, off the cuff the 45% number sounds high, is it accurate?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 13, 2021, 12:52:08 PM
Yes, though the data will lag by months due to time it takes to build immunity and the lag of death data. Also, this assumes case counts outside nursing homes remain level, of those keep rising...

Also, off the cuff the 45% number sounds high, is it accurate?
The NYT has it at 36% (136,000), however it notes some states don't provide data on NH deaths, so those would be additional. There are 30,000 facilities that had a Covid case, so an average of 5-6 deaths doesn't sound that high. Either way, 75% is a actually a pretty impressive number. At most a week or two behind Israel where logistics are far easier.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 13, 2021, 12:57:57 PM
Yes, though the data will lag by months due to time it takes to build immunity and the lag of death data. Also, this assumes case counts outside nursing homes remain level, of those keep rising...

Also, off the cuff the 45% number sounds high, is it accurate?
Deaths will definitely lag, but new hospitalizations should drop very significantly.

The NYT has it at 36% (136,000), however it notes some states don't provide data on NH deaths, so those would be additional. There are 30,000 facilities that had a Covid case, so an average of 5-6 deaths doesn't sound that high. Either way, 75% is a actually a pretty impressive number. At most a week or two behind Israel where logistics are far easier.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html
Add the shenanagins that Cuomo played and the real number of NH deaths is much higher.


According to that NYT link, there were over 1.1 million cases in NHs, and according to your tweet there are currently 1.3 million NH residents. It sounds like nearly every NH resident around the country already got COVID.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 13, 2021, 12:59:58 PM
The NYT has it at 36% (136,000), however it notes some states don't provide data on NH deaths, so those would be additional. There are 30,000 facilities that had a Covid case, so an average of 5-6 deaths doesn't sound that high. Either way, 75% is a actually a pretty impressive number. At most a week or two behind Israel where logistics are far easier.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html

Nursing home logistics are the easiest piece here.

Predictable/known number of residents, fixed locations, they have all the time in the world and can be found in their rooms, staffing on site to administer vaccines, management has every incentive to vaccinate their residents so theyll put in the effort to do what needs to be done. Basically all it takes is coordinating when and where to deliver the doses to.

Also, the 75% means first dose, no? Israelis are already administering the 2nd dose.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 13, 2021, 01:01:19 PM
Deaths will definitely lag, but new hospitalizations should drop very significantly.
Add the shenanagins that Cuomo played and the real number of NH deaths is much higher.


According to that NYT link, there were over 1.1 million cases in NHs, and according to your tweet there are currently 1.3 million NH residents. It sounds like nearly every NH resident around the country already got COVID.
1.1m is over a year, 1.3m is current. I don't know if my tweet is accurate or not, but it's possible there were twice as many residents over the year or more, I'm sure there is some turnover and many left or died.
Also, the 75% means first dose, no? Israelis are already administering the 2nd dose.
They're not up to the second dose yet for NHs, that should be next week. But a week or two here or there isn't critical, the US government has checks and balances, it can't operate like the souk Israel is
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on January 14, 2021, 12:51:03 AM
I dont think I could have been clearer.
Agreed.
True but there are still a lot of hurdles.
https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/merck-ceo-ken-frazier-speaks-about-a-covid-cure-racism-and-why-leaders-need-to-walk-the-talk
 I think when people tell the public that there's going to be a vaccine by the end of 2020, for example, I think they do a grave disservice to the public.

Some are saying mid 2021 but thats still the better part of a year.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24U0WN
If anything, thinking that lots of money = vaccine in a few months when its never been done in less than four years is a boich sevara. Here what some who have been in the vaccine industry for decades have to say about it:
https://www.cgdev.org/blog/vaccine-preliminary-results-here-why-we-need-exercise-caution

https://theconversation.com/fast-covid-19-vaccine-timelines-are-unrealistic-and-put-the-integrity-of-scientists-at-risk-139824

This NYT article is older but it gives some insight into the process:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html
Considering both of my living grandparents have already been vaccinated as of early January, I think this discussion is pretty much over. Again.
In other news, hows the second wave length prediction doing?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 14, 2021, 01:00:31 AM
Agreed.Considering both of my living grandparents have already been vaccinated as of early January, I think this discussion is pretty much over. Again.
Being blind to reality doesn't change when it's more obvious
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 14, 2021, 08:12:57 AM
https://bgr.com/2021/01/13/vaccine-rollout-fauci-new-rules-covid/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 14, 2021, 08:32:50 AM
https://bgr.com/2021/01/13/vaccine-rollout-fauci-new-rules-covid/

Cuomo claims hes using whatever the government said, so I guess this change in Federal strategy is good for NY state (albeit at the expense of other - less organized - states).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 14, 2021, 09:47:23 AM
Cuomo claims hes using whatever the government said, so I guess this change in Federal strategy is good for NY state (albeit at the expense of other - less organized - states).
NY is not exactly the most organized state...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on January 14, 2021, 10:06:19 AM
Agreed.Considering both of my living grandparents have already been vaccinated as of early January, I think this discussion is pretty much over. Again.
As did my parents and grandparent. Yet the majority of people remaining unvaccinated due to lack of availability giving rise to
Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?
will be an issue that will persist toward the latter part of 2021. Remember the point of this was to counter the fairly widespread assumption that those places that were successfully implementing precautions and restrictions and showing low numbers would simply continue to do so successfully, or at least deal with a very short time period of increased activity until a vaccine would quickly become available and allow them to declare victory. So, did the exact prediction of the above article play itself out step by step? No. Did the gist of it hit the target. It sure looks like it. So what exactly is your issue?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 14, 2021, 02:54:44 PM

Moderna begging Israel to accept vaccines so theyre part of the success story. I bet theyll accept them and use for the PA.

הנה לא ינום ולא יישן שומר ישראל
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 14, 2021, 05:49:21 PM

Moderna begging Israel to accept vaccines so theyre part of the success story. I bet theyll accept them and use for the PA.

הנה לא ינום ולא יישן שומר ישראל
I find this interesting, Fauci and Pence both got Moderna while Israel doesn't want to get near it.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on January 14, 2021, 05:54:36 PM
I find this interesting, Fauci and Pence both got Moderna while Israel doesn't want to get near it.
Eh, you are reading too much into it. Israel was dying for the Moderna vaccine before they made this deal with Pfizer
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 14, 2021, 06:38:06 PM
Eh, you are reading too much into it. Israel was dying for the Moderna vaccine before they made this deal with Pfizer

They probably owe Pfizer the positive PR.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 14, 2021, 07:03:02 PM
They probably owe Pfizer the positive PR.
Im sure the exclusivity is fully contractual
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 14, 2021, 07:35:33 PM
Im sure the exclusivity is fully contractual

Then how could they possibly accept additional Moderna doses (not ordered from before, as those might be exceptions in the contract)?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 14, 2021, 11:56:54 PM
Then how could they possibly accept additional Moderna doses (not ordered from before, as those might be exceptions in the contract)?
Thats why they arent. Im guessing the PA may be a win-win, but who know
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehuda57 on January 15, 2021, 01:37:28 AM
Not sure which thread to post in, feel free to x post. A great Q&A regarding the most common questions about the vaccines:

https://youtu.be/qIzjR_TopOY
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 15, 2021, 01:10:08 PM

Am I reading this correctly that the Federal govt told states it is reserving the second dose for them and then said they dont have it?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 15, 2021, 01:21:56 PM

Am I reading this correctly that the Federal govt told states it is reserving the second dose for them and then said they dont have it?

So many bungles. Don't understand why Warp Speed doesn't incentivize Pfizer to get these doses administered sooner. With enough incentive they'll sponsor the entire operation and figure out the logistics themselves.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on January 15, 2021, 02:00:27 PM
Not sure which thread to post in, feel free to x post. A great Q&A regarding the most common questions about the vaccines:

https://youtu.be/qIzjR_TopOY
Transcript?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 15, 2021, 02:01:27 PM
Transcript?

Way, way too long, TL;DR/ TL;DW.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on January 15, 2021, 02:04:35 PM
Way, way too long, TL;DR/ TL;DW.
Yup, someone needs to make it more digestible for the masses.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 15, 2021, 02:09:46 PM
Yup, someone needs to make it more digestible for the masses.

This was supposed to be for the masses but the doctor was way too scientific for a layperson.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on January 15, 2021, 02:14:03 PM
Transcript?

Attached is the youtube autogenerated transcript
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 15, 2021, 02:40:06 PM
This was supposed to be for the masses but the doctor was way too scientific for a layperson.
I thought it was excellent, and easy to understand, so I sent it to laypeople relatives.  Haven't hear back from them yet, so not sure they agree.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 15, 2021, 02:44:06 PM
Attached is the youtube autogenerated transcript
How did you get that?  I would have preferred reading to listening for over an hour, and Dr B spoke too quickly for me to understand him when speeded up.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehuda57 on January 15, 2021, 03:15:18 PM
Yup, someone needs to make it more digestible for the masses.

Even on 1.75 speed?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehuda57 on January 15, 2021, 03:16:31 PM
Way, way too long, TL;DR/ TL;DW.

Well, it starts off with the Dr giving his credentials, basically, he's one of the biggest spreaders of autism in the world
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 15, 2021, 03:21:58 PM
Well, it starts off with the Dr giving his credentials, basically, he's one of the biggest spreaders of autism in the world

You spread more snarcasm on DDF than he (allegedly) spreads autism around the world.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on January 15, 2021, 03:22:01 PM
Even on 1.75 speed?
I think your average person gets turned off at anything more than half an hour.
And I do think the great info in that video could have been given over in half an hour with some editing or a reshoot.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 15, 2021, 03:31:32 PM
They'll probably post a summary next week.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehuda57 on January 15, 2021, 03:34:53 PM

I think your average person gets turned off at anything more than half an hour.
And I do think the great info in that video could have been given over in half an hour with some editing or a reshoot.

בכבוד
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 16, 2021, 07:07:45 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 18, 2021, 03:03:03 AM
Here's my summary of the video that ExGingi and Yehuda57 posted, which can also be seen here: https://covid19ch.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-vaccine-q-with-dr-eli-rosen-and.html
It's really worthwhile to listen to the video, but because some are unable to do that, I've summarized it here. In a few places I quoted Dr. Bar-Zev directly.  My apologies if I misrepresented anything. 

Dr Eli Rosen, physician of Crown Heights, interviews Dr. Naor Bar-Zev, MD pediatrician and PhD in epidemiology of infectious diseases.  Dr. Bar-Zev has conducted research on vaccination around the world, including Africa, Southeast Asia, the Pacific, and Malawi. Hes on the faculty of Johns Hopkins University, and has been involved in planning related to the Covid vaccine

Some people are saying that the vaccine is 95% effective.  What does this mean?
We should say that the vaccine has 95% efficacy, not 95% effectiveness, because vaccine experts use these words differently.  Efficacy describes how much disease is prevented by the vaccine in a clinical trial, and effectiveness describes how much disease is prevented after the clinical trial, when the vaccine is given to people in the real world. 

Often, a vaccine that works well in a clinical trial ends up working a bit less well when given to the general population, for two reasons.  First, compared to the people studied in the clinical trial, the general population is more varied, with people who differ in obesity, health conditions, medications theyre taking, and so on.  Because of this, the effectiveness might be a bit lower than 95%.  Secondly, stuff happens when vaccines are given to millions of people, so perhaps the vaccine is not kept at the proper temperature (although tremendous effort is being exerted to prevent that), and that might decrease its effectiveness.  Based on experience thus far, we expect the vaccines effectiveness to be close to its efficacy, but nobody can honestly say yet what the effectiveness will be until more time has passed.

Does the vaccine protect us from getting sick, and also from infecting others?

Lets define a few terms:
Colonizaton: Germs, such as bacteria and viruses, make their homes on us.  They cause no problem, or even make us healthier, such as the bacteria that colonize our skin and our gut.
Infection: Germs enter our body in a place where they shouldnt be. 
Disease: The infection caused by the germs produces symptoms of illness.

Having the disease Covid-19 means we were previous infected by SARS-COV-2.  But having a SARS-COV-2 infection does not mean that we will necessarily develop Covid-19.  Its possible to have an infection, but no symptoms occur, so the person doesnt even realize that theyre infected.  This is called asymptomatic infection and is very common with the SARS-COV-2 virus.

Its important to realize that people who are infected but have no symptoms are able to transmit the virus to someone else, and thats why were asked to use masks and distancing even when we feel 100% fine.  We might have an asymptomatic infection, that leaves us feeling fine, but allows us to unintentionally transmit the virus to others.  The CDC estimates that probably about half of all transmissions in the community are occurring from people without symptoms.
The clinical trial was designed to see if the vaccine could prevent disease, not to see if it prevents asymptomatic infection.  This made sense, because we were in the midst of a pandemic, and preventing disease was paramount.  But it means were only able to conclude that the  vaccine greatly lowers your risk of getting Covid.  We cant conclude that it lowers your risk of getting an asymptomatic infection, and thereby being able to infect others. 

Now, this doesnt mean that the vaccine doesnt prevent asymptomatic infection and transmission, just that we dont yet know.  Pfizer did find that when animals were studied, their vaccine did decrease transmission, but AstraZenecas vaccine (not the same kind as Pfizers) did not show great reductions in transmission.  All we can say at this point, is that we dont know whether or not the vaccines will prevent asymptomatic infection and transmission.

But keep in mind that this is also true of those who get Covid naturally.  We know that those who recover from Covid are protected for three months, possibly longer, but we dont know whether those people could get a second infection, this time asymptomatically, and subsequently infect others.  In fact, a study just came that suggests that that is does happen.  COVID reinfections are unusual but could still help the virus to spread  (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00071-6)
So even if were vaccinated, we still need to wear a mask and socially distance so that we dont unknowingly transmit the virus to someone else.

Can children carry and transmit the disease?
Very young children are at much lower risk of disease, and even when infected, theyre usually asymptomatic. They are also slightly less likely to transmit the disease -both because theyre less likely to be infected in the first place, and also because their cells have fewer ACE-receptors, which is the protein the virus uses to enter the cell.

But although a child is less likely to get infected than an adult, when children are in overcrowded conditions, such as may occur in a yeshiva or cheder, their chance of getting infected increases, which is why they need to implement social distancing and other protective measures.

Older adolescents and young adults in their 20s, are the major transmitters of disease in the community, often when they themselves remain asymptomatic.

Do we know which part of the immune system is affected by the vaccine?
Generally, when we speak of how a vaccine induces an immune response, we refer to the production of antibodies.  When a virus infects us, a range of different antibodies are produced to different parts of that virus.  Only some of these antibodies will be neutralizing antibodies, that is, antibodies that prevent the virus from attaching to our cells, and the earlier parts of the clinical study (Phase 2) did find that the vaccine stimulates production of these neutralizing antibodies, produced by B cells.

The vaccine (and natural infection) also stimulates production of another group of cells, T cells, which also fight infection.  In addition to the active B and T cells, a group of memory B and T cells are produced, which hang around for a long time.  They retain the memory of this virus, and when we encounter it again, these memory cells rapidly kick into action, and we fight off the infection before we even develop symptoms.  Some of the vaccine trials did look for and find memory T cells, which reassures us that theres a very good chance that the T-cell response to the vaccine will be long-lived.

With measles, we have found a certain level of antibodies provides protection from infection, but we dont yet have that knowledge for SARS COV-2.  We had hoped we might get information on this during the clinical trials, but we didnt.  So we cant measure our antibodies to know whether were protected. 

A side point to keep in mind is that after youre vaccinated, you will have antibodies in your blood.  Until now, weve been measuring antibody levels to figure out whether someone had a past infection, but in the future, a positive antibody test could be the result of either past infection or vaccination. 

If the vaccine works, do we still need to wear a mask and socially distance?
Yes.  We still need to maintain all the normal precautions.  We can be happy that weve received the vaccine, and are protected ourselves, but we dont yet know whether we can still develop asymptomatic infection and transmit that virus to others.

Is it true that the new administration is planning to advocate for omitting or delaying the second dose, and what are the risks and benefits of that?
No, that is a misunderstanding.  Nobody is advocating for giving only one dose of a two-dose vaccine.  The first dose gives you only about 50% immunity, and you really need both doses to get the 95% efficacy.

For the current two-dose vaccines, the question is not if, but when, the second dose should be given.  This is because of the way the body builds up its production of antibodies.  After meeting a viral protein, B cells are stimulate to proliferate and produce lots more B cells.  As this proliferation occurs, the B cells are also undergoing a maturation process, such that as time goes on, they become more and more expert at producing the antibody to perfectly neutralize this particular virus.   If the second vaccine is given soon after the first, the B cells arent mature enough to know how to respond.  On the other hand, we dont want to wait a long time before given the second dose, because the person wont have optimal immunity, and were in the middle of a pandemic.  How long can we wait?  In the AstraZeneca trial, sometimes it happened that the second dose was given with a delay of 6 weeks, and it didnt seem worse than giving it earlier.  So theres been some discussion to postpone the second dose in the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, so that more people could get the first dose soon, and give the factories time to make more vaccine for the second dose.  This is a reasonable debate to have.

There is a one-dose vaccine in development by Johnson & Johnson.  Will this one-dose vaccine have the same high efficacy as the 2-dose vaccines of Pfizer and Moderna?  Will it induce immunity that lasts as long?  Will it work as well for the elderly, whose immune system is slightly less responsive?  Itll be a few weeks before we get results of their clinical trials, and see if their vaccine wins Emergency Use Approval.

How long will immunity last after the vaccine?
Obviously, we dont know, because we havent had enough time since the beginning of these trials.  The clinical trials started around June/July, and some people had been followed for two months at which time Pfizer announced their results.  If you now add November, December, January, we can say that those people who were vaccinated first have had immunity for 5-6 months.

The trials were supposed to continue for two years, and scientifically, we would like to continue them for that long.  But ethically this might not be possible, because now that the vaccine has proven to work, the people in the study who had gotten placebo might understandably want to get the vaccine.  So we probably wont learn about the longevity of immunity from the clinical trial, but we will learn about it from simply observing the large population of people whove been vaccinated, and seeing whether they start getting infected, though this will take a long time.

Will the vaccine be effective against the new strains of the virus we hear about?
Its natural for there to be changes in a virus over time, though not all variants are a health issue.  Some of the recently emerging strains do seem to be more transmissible, which is of concern, but fortunately they dont seem to cause more severe disease.  However, it is possible that a future strain might arise that doesnt respond to our current treatments, or that may be able to cause disease in those with immunity from a previous Covid infection, or from our current vaccine.  These possibilities are being actively studied, and so far, the results are reassuring that our vaccines will work against the UK and Brazil strains.  But we need to remain vigilant, and scientists are studying the genome of SARS-CoV-2 viruses around the world, so as to be alert to the emergence of dangerous variants.  Its likely that at some point well need to develop a slightly different vaccine.  This isnt unexpected; it happens all the time in vaccinology.

Is the vaccine safe?
This question is of utmost importance.  You should realize that vaccine safety is paramount.  First of all, Dr. Bar-Zev says that he takes safety seriously for personal reasons; he would not want to give his children and his elderly parents anything unsafe.   Also, hes in the business of making vaccines available globally, and an unsafe Covid vaccine would cause people to distrust all vaccines.  And vaccines are given to healthy people, to keep them from getting sick, so we dont want to give a healthy person a vaccine that would cause symptoms that are worse than the disease itself. For all these reasons, he takes this topic very seriously.

mRNA vaccines are not totally new; theyve been studied for 20 years, since the SARS outbreak in 2003.  So there is actually considerable evidence that this kind of vaccine is safe in general.  In addition, the clinical trials on the Covid vaccine were actually much larger than usual.  For typical vaccine trials, we would study 1500- 10,000 people for 10 or 15 years until enough people developed the disease and we could calculate vaccine efficacy.  But with Covid, each trial studied 30-40,000 people, and Covid was very prevalent, so enough cases occurred in just two months.  So even though it was called warp speed, you shouldnt think that corners were cut.  Its just that less time was needed because of the high rate of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and the very large number of people who participated in the trial. 
 
With regard to short-term safety, we have lots of data.  Besides the 30-40,000 people in the clinical trial, there are now millions of people whove taken the vaccine, so we have very good information on the short-term side effects.  The Covid vaccine does cause local side effects that are not very pleasant, particularly after the second dose.  People should expect to have pain or redness or a little bit of swelling. They may have a fever, muscle ache, and feel unwell for a day or two, maybe even three.  People should be prepared for this, so if you need help with your shopping, for example, you should prepare in advance.  These effects arent trivial, but theyre common, and should be expected to occur.

No vaccine is 100% safe, and serious side effects can occur.  These may be so rare that they dont show up in a trial of 40,000, because they affect only one in a few million.  Even though these are highly unusual, they need to be reported.  Some of these rare events may be coincidental.  That is, if someone gets the vaccine and has a stroke the next day.  Did he have a condition that made it likely that he would be one of the thousands of people who have a stroke every day?  Or was the stroke related to the vaccine?  When physicians report these rare events, we can monitor this and study whether the vaccine seems to be causing this problem.  Its very important not to be dismissive and to be humble and to really diligently look into this sort of information, because we owe a duty to tell the public if there is a risk of one in ten thousand, or one in a million, of some side effect.  The systems in the US for monitoring these events has been strengthened, and the WHO is establishing worldwide surveillance as well.

What about long-term effects?  Can the vaccine cause problems 20 years from now?
There are things we just cant know until 20 years go by, so there certainly will be studies in the future that look at whether the vaccine is associated with some condition, though theres no reason to expect this.

When we think about risk of taking the vaccine, we have to also consider the risk of not taking it.  Yes, there are risks of the vaccine, and some of them will be serious, though very rare.  But there are risks to the disease too, and the disease is severe in older adults and those with underlying conditions.  In older people, certainly the risk of disease is much greater than the risk of vaccine, and its clear that they should vaccinate.  But even with younger people, the disease can be risky, and intensive care physicians will tell you theyve got a 32-year old on a ventilator.  So the risk of disease is greater than the risk of the vaccine in young adults, too, and the evidence is in favor of vaccination.  The case of children is still unknown.

What about pregnant women?
Pregnant women werent in the original clinical trials, but they are being recruited now for clinical trials.  We know that women who get Covid while pregnant have some increased risk, though not as great as those who get the flu.  Pfizer and Moderna studied their vaccine in pregnant animals, and it didnt cause any major problem.  So what should we do for women who are pregnant now, before we have the results of clinical trials?  The current recommendation in the US is that if a woman is pregnant and is at greater risk, either because of an underlying medical condition or because she works in health care, then they can get the vaccine, but its still recommended that she discuss her particular case with her personal physician. 

For women who are breastfeeding, Dr. Bar-Zev doesnt see any problem with the vaccine.  Although they havent been in clinical trials, he feels that based on his knowledge as an immunologist, a vaccine scientist, and a pediatrician, they should get the vaccine.

What about fertility?
For women who are undergoing fertility treatment, on IVF, theres nothing known.  Some doctors say not to get the vaccine, because it can cause a fever, which may be a problem during fertility treatment, so a woman should speak to her gynecologist or obstetrician of family physician.  Its a personal issue, so dont just look at general guidance but discuss it with your personal doctor.  Dr. Bar-Zev doesnt know enough to say more about that.

A second issue thats been circulating in our community and on social media is the concern that the vaccine will affect fertility.  The concern is that antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 might also attack syncitin, a protein thats involved in the placenta, and thereby damage the placenta in future pregnancies.  This is obviously a frightening possibility, especially in our community where fertility is such an important part of our life.  But the facts are as follows:  There is no similarity between syncitin and the part of SARS-CoV-2 where the antibody attaches, so its unlikely that the antibody would affect this other protein.  In addition, there have been millions of women who got Covid, and we havent seen a drop in fertility.  So this idea doesnt make sense biologically, and isnt supported by whats happening in reality.

Autoimmune disease
Some people with autoimmune diseases, such as Crohns disease or juvenile rheumatoid arthritis are taking monoclonal antibodies for their disease.  There is no problem with them taking the vaccine.

If you had monoclonal antibodies as part of the treatment for Covid, then you should wait three months and speak to your physician before taking the vaccine.

Can the vaccine induce autoimmunity?  This claim is often raised by those who oppose vaccination, and its not 100% false, but its been hyped up way more than it deserves to be.  It is certainly biologically possible, but it seems to be extremely rare.   There was one case reported recently of a young obstetrician who developed thrombocytopenia soon after vaccination.  This condition means the blood doesnt clot normally, and he sadly developed a massive stroke and died.  Its possible that this was coincidental, but its also possible that it was caused by the vaccine, and if so, it might be through an autoimmune mechanism.  But it is extremely rare, and is the only case out of millions of doses that have been given.  We need to be on the lookout for other such cases, but at this point, they are so very rare that it is not likely to be a major issue, and not anywhere near the risk of getting Covid.

What about the specific components of the vaccine?
With regard to the mRNA itself, there is no safety issue.  It breaks down very quickly, so isnt around to cause long-term damage.  In fact, a concern with the mRNA vaccine is that the mRNA might break down soon after leaving the factory, and its maintained at super cold temperatures to prevent that. 

The mRNA is further protected by being enclosed in a tiny fat bubble made of a type of cholesterol.  This kind of cholesterol is a common chemical in our body, so no problem with it.

Theres no adjuvant, no egg, no latex, no gelatin, no preservatives, no mercury, no alum.  Those things are not necessarily unsafe, but the point is that we dont have to worry about them because they are not found in this vaccine, which is very simple. 

Besides the mRNA and cholesterol, there is polyethylene glycol, and its possible that some of the very rare cases of severe allergy might have been caused by the polyethylene glycol. 

It contains some sucrose, which is just table sugar, and sodium chloride, which is just salt, and potassium chloride, which is just another kind of salt, sometimes used in our food, and buffers made of sodium phosphate and potassium phosphate, which are part of our body anyway.

If I was previously severely ill with Covid, will the vaccine do the same thing, and perhaps cause a cytokine storm?

This was actively looked for in the clinical trials, and the vaccine was not found to cause a cytokine storm.  And the type of T cells that were induced by the vaccine, are the type that dampen down cytokine storms, so this reassures us that cytokine storms are unlikely. There was one such case reported in Israel last week, and reported to the WHO, and were monitoring to be sure, but based on millions of doses given, we dont think this is a concern.  Can I get Covid a second time, and is a cytokine storm more likely then?  Or if I have a vaccine and still get Covid, am I at more risk of severe disease?  We are looking into those questions, but all the indications so far are very reassuring.

Should people with a history of allergies be getting the vaccine?
Severe allergic responses have occurred, but they are very rare.  If somebody has an allergy to the first dose, they should speak to their physician before taking the second.  If somebody has allergies to food its good to discuss it with your physician.  Its not a reason to not take the vaccine, but if youre worried, perhaps your physician would want you to get the vaccine in a setting where equipment is available to treat a severe allergic response.

Some doctors say that the vaccine causes harm.  Is it one persons word against another?
"I dont want to get into loshon hara, and I dont want to get into anything that might sound disrespectful to anybody.  But Ill just say the following comments.  When I teach clinically, at the bedside, I always teach my trainees to never trust what anybody else says, and the person they should mistrust most of all is themselves.  You always have to ask what if Im wrong?  The stakes are so high.  What have I not thought of?  What harm might come to my patient because of being rash, or being overconfident, or being arrogant, or not listening to somebody elses concern?  Thats a fundamental issue in good clinical care, and its a fundamental issue in science and the conduct of science and particularly when it comes to  populations of the magnitude that were talking about here.  Even extremely rare events become important because youre talking about a large scale, so the responsibility is to be humble and the way we approach this needs to be with humility and we need to listen to our detractors and to listen to people who disagree with us.  The halacha is like Beit Hillel because they said the words of Beit Shammai first.  And the same thing applies here. Its superimportant in vaccinology and all science we listen to people who disagree with us.  We want that rigorous oversight.  I want people to not believe me.  I dont want to believe me.  I want to be able to look at the methods with diligence and care, to see that theyre valid, repeatable, conducted in a rigorous way, and result in the outcomes that matter.  I hold my opinion temporarily until Im disproven and better science is developed.  We never have access to the truth in science.  Its not emmes.  We have temporary hypotheses that we try to disprove and as long as they withstand that scrutiny then that's okay and we go with that but the scrutiny is part and parcel of the science.
 
So I think its an important attitude to have.  Im not saying that I know anything better than anybody else, and Im happy for people to disprove me because it will make me a better scientist and a better physician and a better human being and a better eved Hashem. 

At the same time, unlike the Beit Shammai/Beit Hillel example, this isnt really a question of elu velu.  Theres a metzius and theres a reality and a scientific approach to it. As long as people take a scientific approach, we have what to discuss.  If they are strange theories, okay, thats fine.  People can think what they want.  But people need to be able to distinguish science from fiction."

Can the virus change your DNA?
No.  Its got nothing to do with DNA, which is in the nucleus.  It doesnt even last long enough in the cell to get to the nucleus.

What do you say to all the claims that the government has ulterior motives with regard to a vaccination, or all the talk about microchips?
Dr Bar-Zev: No. I mean, I know these people, in the industry, in foundations I know what drives them, I know what they bring up in conversation, I what worries them, I know what they lose sleep over, I know what they think is the right thing to do, and I know how evidence-based they are.  And there isnt any truth to this story of conspiracy theories and so on.  And there are good and solid yidden in those foundations that worry about other yidden and indeed the broader community and the world These conspiracy theories are just false.  Its just not true.

Is the vaccine really necessary, now that we have good treatments for Covid, like monoclonal antibodies?
Prevention is better than cure.  The treatments are not perfect, and sometimes work only at certain stages of disease.  Clearly its better to prevent disease.

A person might say, Im young and healthy, so Ill be fine if I get Covid, why take the risk of an unknown vaccine? Theres some truth in that, in that everyone must weigh the risks for themselves, and these risks do differ by age.  The risk of Covid is greater for older adults, and for them, theres no question they should take the vaccine.  But younger people are mistaken if they think theyre not at all at risk. Weve seen many people 20-35  years old, who had severe disease and even were niftar.  So the risk for an individual young person is low, but when we look at the whole population, the risk is high enough that were seeing these cases, and theyre preventable deaths, preventable by the vaccine.
 
If I had Covid and I have antibodies do I still need to get vaccinated?  And if so, do I need two doses?
Theres a lot of variability in response to a natural Covid infection.  Those with very mild disease may have produced only a weak immune response.  Those with more serious disease may have produced a better immune response, but in both cases, the response will wane over time, so it makes sense to give a second exposure to the protein that stimulates the immune response.  Not a second exposure to the virus, but to the viral protein thats occurs after getting the vaccine. 
The two-part vaccine is called a prime-boost regimen; the first dose primes the immune system, and the second dose boosts the response.  Sort of like learning, where you learn something, and start to forget it, but if you review, you will retain it much better.  So if you had Covid, you should be vaccinated to help retain the immune response.  Do you really need two doses, or is one enough?  The answer is that hasnt been studied, so we really cant answer that.  Perhaps taking only one dose would make sense, as a way to save doses for others.  But what we do know is that two doses work.  Theres no reason to think that those who had Covid would differ from the rest of the population, or that they would have less immune response, or get more sick, or have more side effects.  All those are possible, but we just dont have evidence.  If youre back to good health, you could get the vaccine, even if you still have antibodies, as these are expected to wane over time.  But speak to your personal physician.

Final thoughts?

HKBH makes the refuah before the machalah.  We have this kind of example to borrow, kviyachol,  histakel boraisa uvara alma.  Weve got this novel technology, which the body looks at, it reads the code and it produces this protein, in a way thats really a testament to the miracle of the briya.  Its the work of the Aibishter in all of this, and we should be just thankful with shevach vhodaya to HKBH that we have this capacity in this day and age to have a mageifa of this magnitude, and within less than a year have the capacity to curtail it because of where we are, and the learning that we have, and the technology we have.  Thats a bracha, and we shouldnt turn our backs to that bracha. We should use that bracha.  We had a year of a terrible pandemic, for yiras Hashem, and we need to turn it now to ahavas Hashem, and really appreciate the brachos that were given.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on January 18, 2021, 06:38:40 AM
Even on 1.75 speed?

That + captioning turned on.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 18, 2021, 10:09:30 AM

Some doctors say that the vaccine causes harm.  Is it one persons word against another?
"I dont want to get into loshon hara, and I dont want to get into anything that might sound disrespectful to anybody.  But Ill just say the following comments.  When I teach clinically, at the bedside, I always teach my trainees to never trust what anybody else says, and the person they should mistrust most of all is themselves.  You always have to ask what if Im wrong?  The stakes are so high.  What have I not thought of?  What harm might come to my patient because of being rash, or being overconfident, or being arrogant, or not listening to somebody elses concern?  Thats a fundamental issue in good clinical care, and its a fundamental issue in science and the conduct of science and particularly when it comes to  populations of the magnitude that were talking about here.  Even extremely rare events become important because youre talking about a large scale, so the responsibility is to be humble and the way we approach this needs to be with humility and we need to listen to our detractors and to listen to people who disagree with us.  The halacha is like Beit Hillel because they said the words of Beit Shammai first.  And the same thing applies here. Its superimportant in vaccinology and all science we listen to people who disagree with us.  We want that rigorous oversight.  I want people to not believe me.  I dont want to believe me.  I want to be able to look at the methods with diligence and care, to see that theyre valid, repeatable, conducted in a rigorous way, and result in the outcomes that matter.  I hold my opinion temporarily until Im disproven and better science is developed.  We never have access to the truth in science.  Its not emmes.  We have temporary hypotheses that we try to disprove and as long as they withstand that scrutiny then that's okay and we go with that but the scrutiny is part and parcel of the science.
 
So I think its an important attitude to have.  Im not saying that I know anything better than anybody else, and Im happy for people to disprove me because it will make me a better scientist and a better physician and a better human being and a better eved Hashem. 

At the same time, unlike the Beit Shammai/Beit Hillel example, this isnt really a question of elu velu.  Theres a metzius and theres a reality and a scientific approach to it. As long as people take a scientific approach, we have what to discuss.  If they are strange theories, okay, thats fine.  People can think what they want.  But people need to be able to distinguish science from fiction."


I wish we would see such an attitude forom more doctors @ExGingi
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on January 18, 2021, 10:33:39 AM
I wish we would see such an attitude forom more doctors @ExGingi

+1,000,000
His humility and שם שמים שגור בפיו is what makes him so convincing (even though I would love to question him on the two dose directive for those that recovered with antibodies, rather than actually testing for antibodies after, and possibly just before, one dose).

I would venture to say that he would serve as a much better policymaker and public spokesman than many that we've seen, which could probably lead to better outcomes. @AsherO
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 18, 2021, 10:46:59 AM
Thank you very much for writing this out
A side point to keep in mind is that after youre vaccinated, you will have antibodies in your blood.  Until now, weve been measuring antibody levels to figure out whether someone had a past infection, but in the future, a positive antibody test could be the result of either past infection or vaccination. 
I am looking for more info on this. Does a positive antibody test after the vaccine prove that you immune or is just picking up the vaccine?
 
If you had monoclonal antibodies as part of the treatment for Covid, then you should wait three months and speak to your physician before taking the vaccine.
I have heard this as speculation that the mono antibodies will fight the vaccine. I didn't realize it was accepted

Is it true that the new administration is planning to advocate for omitting or delaying the second dose, and what are the risks and benefits of that?
No, that is a misunderstanding.  Nobody is advocating for giving only one dose of a two-dose vaccine.  The first dose gives you only about 50% immunity, and you really need both doses to get the 95% efficacy.
Is this correct? I was pretty sure that these countries and Biden were in fact advocating giving one dose of the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine now and another in a few months - once supply catches up.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 18, 2021, 10:54:26 AM
+1,000,000
His humility and שם שמים שגור בפיו is what makes him so convincing (even though I would love to question him on the two dose directive for those that recovered with antibodies, rather than actually testing for antibodies after, and possibly just before, one dose).

I would venture to say that he would serve as a much better policymaker and public spokesman than many that we've seen, which could probably lead to better outcomes. @AsherO

That is somewhat addressed here.

If I had Covid and I have antibodies do I still need to get vaccinated?  And if so, do I need two doses?
Theres a lot of variability in response to a natural Covid infection.  Those with very mild disease may have produced only a weak immune response.  Those with more serious disease may have produced a better immune response, but in both cases, the response will wane over time, so it makes sense to give a second exposure to the protein that stimulates the immune response.  Not a second exposure to the virus, but to the viral protein thats occurs after getting the vaccine. 
The two-part vaccine is called a prime-boost regimen; the first dose primes the immune system, and the second dose boosts the response.  Sort of like learning, where you learn something, and start to forget it, but if you review, you will retain it much better.  So if you had Covid, you should be vaccinated to help retain the immune response.  Do you really need two doses, or is one enough?  The answer is that hasnt been studied, so we really cant answer that.  Perhaps taking only one dose would make sense, as a way to save doses for others.  But what we do know is that two doses work.  Theres no reason to think that those who had Covid would differ from the rest of the population, or that they would have less immune response, or get more sick, or have more side effects.  All those are possible, but we just dont have evidence.  If youre back to good health, you could get the vaccine, even if you still have antibodies, as these are expected to wane over time.  But speak to your personal physician.


Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 18, 2021, 10:55:41 AM

Is this correct? I was pretty sure that these countries and Biden were in fact advocating giving one dose of the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine now and another in a few months - once supply catches up.


Did you read the next line?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 18, 2021, 10:58:36 AM
Did you read the next line?
No I missed that. Thanks for pointing that out. When watching it - it wasn't so clear.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehuda57 on January 18, 2021, 11:39:38 AM
I wish we would see such an attitude forom more doctors

+1,000,000
His humility and שם שמים שגור בפיו is what makes him so convincing (even though I would love to question him on the two dose directive for those that recovered with antibodies, rather than actually testing for antibodies after, and possibly just before, one dose).

I would venture to say that he would serve as a much better policymaker and public spokesman than many that we've seen, which could probably lead to better outcomes.

I was taken by his attitude more than his knowledge. Of course, the knowledge is of primary concern when actually making a decision, but his attitude gives me the confidence that his knowledge is being accrued and applied in a way that is humble, empathetic, and not dismissive and patronizing to others. As the Rebbe would say, a rofeh yedid.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on January 18, 2021, 12:20:06 PM
That is somewhat addressed here.

I heard (and read) that. Yet all he is saying is
Quote
Do you really need two doses, or is one enough?  The answer is that hasnt been studied, so we really cant answer that.  Perhaps taking only one dose would make sense, as a way to save doses for others.  But what we do know is that two doses work.  Theres no reason to think that those who had Covid would differ from the rest of the population, or that they would have less immune response, or get more sick, or have more side effects.  All those are possible, but we just dont have evidence.  If youre back to good health, you could get the vaccine, even if you still have antibodies, as these are expected to wane over time.  But speak to your personal physician. @biobook do you have any insight on this? Or should we just try to contact him with this question?

But he's ignoring the issue of having the actual infection as the prime, with one dose of the vaccine as the boost. The people asking whether those with antibodies should take the vaccine aren't concerned that "they would have less immune response, or get more sick, or have more side effects" on the contrary, they are questioning to what extent the vaccine is necessary, and if indeed it would give a boost (in a safer way than re-exposure to the actual virus, that would most likely also give a boost) wouldn't a single dose be enough? And if "we don't know" why not test it, there are millions of people that recovered and have antibodies? And if we're concerned about the inverted U curve he described as far as the immune system vs the severity of the disease, then why not test it primarily with those that had mild or moderate symptoms yet developed antibodies?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on January 18, 2021, 12:22:21 PM
I was taken by his attitude more than his knowledge. Of course, the knowledge is of primary concern when actually making a decision, but his attitude gives me the confidence that his knowledge is being accrued and applied in a way that is humble, empathetic, and not dismissive and patronizing to others. As the Rebbe would say, a rofeh yedid.

That sentiment echos what I've heard from almost anyone who watched the video. It was more than just his words, it was also in his non-verbal communication (body language, tone, etc.).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 18, 2021, 12:32:06 PM
I heard (and read) that. Yet all he is saying is
But he's ignoring the issue of having the actual infection as the prime, with one dose of the vaccine as the boost. The people asking whether those with antibodies should take the vaccine aren't concerned that "they would have less immune response, or get more sick, or have more side effects" on the contrary, they are questioning to what extent the vaccine is necessary, and if indeed it would give a boost (in a safer way than re-exposure to the actual virus, that would most likely also give a boost) wouldn't a single dose be enough? And if "we don't know" why not test it, there are millions of people that recovered and have antibodies? And if we're concerned about the inverted U curve he described as far as the immune system vs the severity of the disease, then why not test it primarily with those that had mild or moderate symptoms yet developed antibodies?
It would make sense to study it, but who has the financial incentive to do so?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 18, 2021, 12:41:04 PM
Underselling the Vaccine (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/briefing/donald-trump-pardon-phil-spector-coronavirus-deaths.html)
Discussing how some are saying that the vaccine shouldn't change behavior. Lumps it along with the way they tried tricking the public early on about masks.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 18, 2021, 12:55:46 PM
It would make sense to study it, but who has the financial incentive to do so?

Clinical trials are expensive and are usually paid for by pharmaceutical companies for the potential financial gain. Pfizer prefers you stay in doubt about immunity from the infection and take their vaccine.

All that tells us about is their bias, it doesnt change the facts.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 18, 2021, 01:03:37 PM
Clinical trials are expensive and are usually paid for by pharmaceutical companies for the potential financial gain. Pfizer prefers you stay in doubt about immunity from the infection and take their vaccine.

All that tells us about is their bias, it doesnt change the facts.
Correct, but in that case will will be left with maybes and therefore this may be the best we will get.
So if you had Covid, you should be vaccinated to help retain the immune response.  Do you really need two doses, or is one enough? The answer is that hasnt been studied, so we really cant answer that.  Perhaps taking only one dose would make sense, as a way to save doses for others.  But what we do know is that two doses work.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 18, 2021, 01:22:45 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 18, 2021, 02:38:10 PM
The situation continues to remain a national embarrassment - why are we still not doing vaccines 24/7?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 18, 2021, 02:39:51 PM
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/17/crash-landing-of-operation-warp-speed-459892
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on January 18, 2021, 04:03:35 PM
The situation continues to remain a national embarrassment - why are we still not doing vaccines 24/7?

NYC's designated 24/7 vaccination site closed after running out of vaccines - you can't make this stuff up!

https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-updates-247-brooklyn-vaccination-site-closes-due-lack-doses
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on January 18, 2021, 06:40:50 PM
Cuomo wants to buy vaccine for NY directly from Pfizer to bypass federal bottlenecks:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cuomo-wants-new-york-buy-covid-vaccine-directly-pfizer-n1254605
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 18, 2021, 06:55:26 PM
Cuomo wants to buy vaccine for NY directly from Pfizer to bypass federal bottlenecks:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cuomo-wants-new-york-buy-covid-vaccine-directly-pfizer-n1254605
Finally. What took so long
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 18, 2021, 07:55:01 PM
Finally. What took so long
The last thing we need is states bidding against each other for vaccine deliveries
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 18, 2021, 08:39:20 PM
Cuomo wants to buy vaccine for NY directly from Pfizer to bypass federal bottlenecks:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cuomo-wants-new-york-buy-covid-vaccine-directly-pfizer-n1254605

Wouldnt this be good for Pfizer? They already have a commitment from the federal government, and now they can sell more domestically?

Or are Pfizers constraints all supply-side and they cant produce more anyhow.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 18, 2021, 09:12:36 PM
Wouldnt this be good for Pfizer? They already have a commitment from the federal government, and now they can sell more domestically?

Or are Pfizers constraints all supply-side and they cant produce more anyhow.
can they deliver?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 18, 2021, 09:14:05 PM
The last thing we need is states bidding against each other for vaccine deliveries
This is an emergency situation and all options should be on the table. I would also like to buy direct. If Amazon or Walmart were running the vaccination program we would be way ahead - instead it is running like the USPS.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 18, 2021, 10:49:04 PM
This is an emergency situation and all options should be on the table. I would also like to buy direct. If Amazon or Walmart were running the vaccination program we would be way ahead - instead it is running like the USPS.

The issue is that these are politicians who are fighting, and for their honor, not for your safety and well-being. In the private sector competition leads to efficiency, within government it could just lead to a power struggle further delays.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on January 19, 2021, 08:16:22 AM
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/virus-czar-says-1st-dose-less-effective-than-pfizer-suggested-report/
I hope this doesn't prove true about the vaccine as a whole :(

And - really bad idea to skip the second dose
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 19, 2021, 09:20:39 AM
I was taken by his attitude more than his knowledge.
+1,000,000
His humility and שם שמים שגור בפיו is what makes him so convincing
Agree.  And that comes across in the video much more than in my shorter summary, which is why I recommend that everyone watch the video.

I heard (and read) that. Yet all he is saying is ....

But he's ignoring the issue of ...
Please don't draw any conclusions about Dr. B based on my summary!  It isn't a word-for-word transcript.  I tried to extract and condense and explain, but in the process of selecting what seemed to me to be most important, I may have misrepresented something that was most important to you.  I'll go back and look at this point.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 19, 2021, 09:45:30 AM
Thank you very much for writing this out
I am looking for more info on this. Does a positive antibody test after the vaccine prove that you immune or is just picking up the vaccine?
Antibody can be produced in two cases: when you are infected with the virus, and when you get the vaccine. Antibody looks the same in both cases.  The antibody test just picks up antibody, and the test doesn't "know" whether the antibody had been made in response to the virus or to the vaccine. 

A positive antibody test doesn't "prove" that you are immune, that is, we don't yet know how much antibody you need to be considered immune.  But whatever that number is, it shouldn't matter whether you got there as a result of getting covid, or as a result of getting the vaccine.   
Quote
I have heard this as speculation that the mono antibodies will fight the vaccine. I didn't realize it was accepted
Monoclonal antibodies are being studied very actively, to see exactly when and how they might fight the virus.   I think the current understanding is that they help some people when given very early in the disease. 

But in any event, Dr B didn't discuss whether the treatment works.  He was only saying that IF you got that treatment, then you have antibodies in your blood that will last about three months, so there's no need to take the vaccine immediately.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 19, 2021, 12:44:44 PM
But he's ignoring the issue of having the actual infection as the prime, with one dose of the vaccine as the boost.
No, he's not ignoring that issue.  He mentions the prime-boost concept, then asks re: those who've recovered from covid,  "Good question is do I really need two doses, or is one dose enough?  And the answer to that is that I don't know. I don't know the answer to that because that's not been studied. And it's plausible and makes sense that possibly that would be an approach - maybe a way of saving some doses or whatever.  But we just don't know..."

Quote
The people asking whether those with antibodies should take the vaccine aren't concerned that "they would have less immune response, or get more sick, or have more side effects"

Boruch Hashem!  You were saved from worrying about those possibilities!  But the experts working on the vaccine were, in fact, worried about them, based on their experience with other vaccines and based on some observations of Covid.  But what he says is that although we're not dismissing those possibilities out of hand, the available evidence right now suggests that we don't have to be concerned about them. 
Quote
...on the contrary, they are questioning to what extent the vaccine is necessary, and if indeed it would give a boost (in a safer way than re-exposure to the actual virus, that would most likely also give a boost) wouldn't a single dose be enough?
And he answers "...we just don't know."  He thinks it's a reasonable question to ask, but since the study hasn't been done, we have no evidence on which to base a definite answer.  And "What we do know, is that two vaccine doses work..."

Quote
And if "we don't know" why not test it, there are millions of people that recovered and have antibodies? And if we're concerned about the inverted U curve he described as far as the immune system vs the severity of the disease, then why not test it primarily with those that had mild or moderate symptoms yet developed antibodies?
Last summer, there were millions of people who had recovered from Covid, and billions of people who had not gotten it.  The priority was testing a vaccine to protect the billions, and it took about 5 months to do that - recruiting subjects, giving the vaccine, and watching till a significant number developed Covid.  Waiting for a significant number of post-Covid subjects to develop Covid would take that much longer, because they have some degree of immunity, so let's say at least a year or two to get results.

We can't wait for that study to be done, so public health experts need to make a decision in the face of this uncertainty.  But this is always the case.  Doctors always have to treat the patient in front of them today, despite lacking complete certainty about the best treatment. 
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on January 19, 2021, 05:30:25 PM
But he's ignoring the issue of having the actual infection as the prime, with one dose of the vaccine as the boost. The people asking whether those with antibodies should take the vaccine aren't concerned that "they would have less immune response, or get more sick, or have more side effects" on the contrary, they are questioning to what extent the vaccine is necessary, and if indeed it would give a boost (in a safer way than re-exposure to the actual virus, that would most likely also give a boost) wouldn't a single dose be enough? And if "we don't know" why not test it, there are millions of people that recovered and have antibodies? And if we're concerned about the inverted U curve he described as far as the immune system vs the severity of the disease, then why not test it primarily with those that had mild or moderate symptoms yet developed antibodies?

I actually emailed him today and was surprised at the fast and detailed response (with a request not to forward, as everyone's situation is different).

In his email response again his wonderful attitude came across.

Oh, how much the world is missing by not having him as the policymaker or at least spokesperson for guidelines.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 19, 2021, 07:02:29 PM
Oh, how much the world is missing by not having him as the policymaker or at least spokesperson for guidelines.

In todays world humility isnt valued and people with that trait dont often end up in policy-making positions.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 19, 2021, 08:42:22 PM
I actually emailed him today and was surprised at the fast and detailed response (with a request not to forward, as everyone's situation is different).

In his email response again his wonderful attitude came across.

Oh, how much the world is missing by not having him as the policymaker or at least spokesperson for guidelines.
Fantastic!  Aseh lecha rofeh is not easy, and it's great when you find one you can trust.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 20, 2021, 02:38:08 PM
More people have gotten the second dose in Israel then those who have gotten the first dose in OH - great job Dewine.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-record-infections-record-vaccines-israel-gives-200000-shots-in-past-day/

Ohio 456k (there is a delay in reporting Today's numbers). https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/covid-19-vaccine/covid-19-vaccination-dashboard
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 20, 2021, 03:16:04 PM
More people have gotten the second dose in Israel then those who have gotten the first dose in OH - great job Dewine.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-record-infections-record-vaccines-israel-gives-200000-shots-in-past-day/

Ohio 456k (there is a delay in reporting Today's numbers). https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/covid-19-vaccine/covid-19-vaccination-dashboard

Israel effectively has as much supply as they can administer from Pfizer, can't say the same for OH. If OH had that things might (or might not) look different.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 20, 2021, 04:08:53 PM
Israel effectively has as much supply as they can administer from Pfizer, can't say the same for OH. If OH had that things might (or might not) look different.
Ohio has 968,250 doses and has given less than 50% of what they have - inexcusable. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 20, 2021, 04:21:39 PM
Ohio has 968,250 doses and has given less than 50% of what they have - inexcusable. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
This has nothing to do with Israel giving 2.7 million doses.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 20, 2021, 04:22:23 PM
This has nothing to do with Israel giving 2.7 million doses.

Correct. Theyre polar opposites and the contrast couldnt be starker.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 20, 2021, 04:26:30 PM
This has nothing to do with Israel giving 2.7 million doses.
It has to do with that in Israel there is a sense of urgency to get things done and not waste doses or time, this even manifests itself in the creativity in acquiring enough doses, and here there is no sense of urgency. there has not been a significant uptick in doses over the last while.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 20, 2021, 04:27:10 PM
Correct. Theyre polar opposites and the contrast couldnt be starker.
Not sure why it had to be that way if it was managed properly.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 20, 2021, 04:28:07 PM
Not sure why it had to be that way if it was managed properly.

Big if.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 20, 2021, 04:33:13 PM
Big if.
That is what I am complaining about though the speed in getting an effective vaccine was amazing, the continued failure in managing the distribution from the top down is mind boggling - with time to prepare and now time to correct initial failures. I hope the Biden team does a better job though I am not very optimistic.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 20, 2021, 04:37:05 PM
That is what I am complaining about though the speed in getting an effective vaccine was amazing, the continued failure in managing the distribution from the top down is mind boggling - with time to prepare and now time to correct initial failures. I hope the Biden team does a better job though I am not very optimistic.

It might have been a good idea to pay the vaccine developers/big pharma per dose for getting them injected, with a bonus for getting each one they get done before a certain date.

And/or if the federal government would pay for vaccine production when stage III clinical trials started. Wed have tens of millions more doses on hand upon EUA.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 20, 2021, 04:45:54 PM
It might have been a good idea to pay the vaccine developers/big pharma per dose for getting them injected, with a bonus for getting each one they get done before a certain date.

And/or if the federal government would pay for vaccine production when stage III clinical trials started. Wed have tens of millions more doses on hand upon EUA.
Could not agree with more - If someone had an incentive things get moving, that is why the private sector always does a better job. In Israel either they care more about the people or Bibi feels it will get him re elected either way they are getting it done.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 20, 2021, 04:47:41 PM
Johnson & Johnsons phase III data should be out shortly, cant wait to see the results:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-could-alter-the-course-of-the-pandemic-investors-will-soon-know-if-it-works-51610459381

Anyone read anything recent about this vaccine that isnt stated in this article?

Fauci recently said we like wont see data until February but he expects EUA in February.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 20, 2021, 05:08:12 PM
https://www.wyff4.com/article/philanthropist-melinda-gates-says-no-excuse-for-covid-19-vaccination-delays/35229423#
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 20, 2021, 06:44:32 PM
Amazon offering to help https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/2021-01-20-covid-live-updates-vaccine-news-n1254842/ncrd1255012
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Moshe123 on January 20, 2021, 06:51:09 PM
Amazon offering to help https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/2021-01-20-covid-live-updates-vaccine-news-n1254842/ncrd1255012

Good to know the pandemic started today.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 20, 2021, 06:55:06 PM
https://www.wyff4.com/article/philanthropist-melinda-gates-says-no-excuse-for-covid-19-vaccination-delays/35229423#

Big stink for Biden to provide 100m vaccines (doses). Ill be impressed if he can actually get 100m 1st doses injected within 100 days. Thats realistic, but a feat.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Moshe123 on January 20, 2021, 06:59:55 PM
Big stink for Biden to provide 100m vaccines (doses). Ill be impressed if he can actually get 100m 1st doses injected within 100 days. Thats realistic, but a feat.

Very feasible. We're not far from that pace as is. It's not even ambitious.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 20, 2021, 07:32:00 PM
Very feasible. We're not far from that pace as is. It's not even ambitious.
+1 We're at a pace of nearly 1 million doses per day, and we'll probably be over 1 million per day within a week or 2 unless supply runs really short.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Moshe123 on January 20, 2021, 07:43:03 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 20, 2021, 07:47:29 PM
It looks like the goal of 100m is like a participation trophy.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 20, 2021, 07:54:12 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: zh cohen on January 20, 2021, 08:51:42 PM
It looks like the goal of 100m is like a participation trophy.


Will it be possible to keep up this pace after those most eager to get it are done?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 20, 2021, 08:55:11 PM
Will it be possible to keep up this pace after those most eager to get it are done?
Second doses will clog the system too.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 20, 2021, 09:09:00 PM
Second doses will clog the system too.

Itll be a nightmare because of the logistics. I simply dont trust the system to get it right.

Which is part of why I think the litmus test for Biden should be 100m vaccinated people (at least the first dose), not 100m doses administered (which could include 40m or more 2nd doses).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 20, 2021, 09:11:31 PM
Itll be a nightmare because of the logistics. I simply dont trust the system to get it right.

Which is part of why I think the litmus test for Biden should be 100m vaccinated people (at least the first dose), not 100m doses administered (which could include 40m or more 2nd doses).
I agree but I don't know if 100m first doses is feasible from a production standpoint. The current 900k/day is before states are running out of doses, as they are this week.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 20, 2021, 09:19:37 PM
I agree but I don't know if 100m first doses is feasible from a production standpoint. The current 900k/day is before states are running out of doses, as they are this week.

Biden will hit 100 days by the end of April. By then its very likely hell have a month or two of J&Js vaccine EUA, and that vaccine is less of a logistical nightmare and requires only a single dose. Theres also the Defense Production Act that could increase production output. Lastly, do we know if Moderna has fully scaled-up their domestic production capacity?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 20, 2021, 09:26:27 PM
Biden will hit 100 days by the end of April. By then its very likely hell have a month or two of J&Js vaccine EUA, and that vaccine is less of a logistical nightmare and requires only a single dose. Theres also the Defense Production Act that could increase production output. Lastly, do we know if Moderna has fully scaled-up their domestic production capacity?
didnt Johnson announce a production delay that pushed them to June
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 20, 2021, 11:18:56 PM
didnt Johnson announce a production delay that pushed them to June

I dont recall seeing. That. J&J has been making vaccines since forever and was talking about 1-1.3b doses distributed in 2021.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on January 21, 2021, 07:19:18 AM
Why are so many people catching covid from the vaccines, if these are MRNA vaccines not containing live or even dead virus, from which is was said to be (and in theory should be) impossible to contract covid from?

I haven't seen anything good online explaining this phenomenon.

(The numbers submitted to the FDA proving the efficacy of the vaccine seem to be hogwash. Well over 1 in 10,000 people seem to be contracting covid from the vaccination.)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 21, 2021, 07:32:53 AM
Why are so many people catching covid from the vaccines, if these are MRNA vaccines not containing live or even dead virus, from which is was said to be (and in theory should be) impossible to contract covid from?

I haven't seen anything good online explaining this phenomenon.

(The numbers submitted to the FDA proving the efficacy of the vaccine seem to be hogwash. Well over 1 in 10,000 people seem to be contracting covid from the vaccination.)

Where did you see people are catching Covid from the vaccine? What is happening is that you do not develop antibodies until 14+ days from first dose, and you are not completely protected until a week after the second dose. Hence people who took the first dose can still catch from someone else. It seems from data from Israel that one dose is less protective than they claimed but after 2 doses it is working well.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 21, 2021, 08:37:47 AM
I dont recall seeing. That. J&J has been making vaccines since forever and was talking about 1-1.3b doses distributed in 2021.
I didnt read this article but its the first result of a Google search https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-updates%3A-efficacy-figures-production-delays-2021-01-20 (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-updates%3A-efficacy-figures-production-delays-2021-01-20)
They announce a production delay last Wednesday
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 21, 2021, 08:47:21 AM
I dont recall seeing. That. J&J has been making vaccines since forever and was talking about 1-1.3b doses distributed in 2021.

Im seeing this now:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/health/covid-vaccine-johnson-johnson.html

Looks like they expect to have some doses in March or April. June was the original target date for delivery of 100m doses.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 21, 2021, 09:50:56 AM
Why are so many people catching covid from the vaccines, if these are MRNA vaccines not containing live or even dead virus, from which is was said to be (and in theory should be) impossible to contract covid from?

You're hearing about people catching covid after vaccination, but there's no way they can catch it from the vaccine itself.  Here are a few possibilities:

1. They caught covid BEFORE they got the vaccine.  It takes an average of 5 days for symptoms to appear, but can be as much as 2-3 weeks later.  During that interval they got the vaccine, and mistakenly thought that the vaccine caused covid, but they really were already infected before they got the vaccine.

2. They caught covid DURING the time they went for the vaccine.  The most vulnerable people have been isolating at home, and when they go for the vaccine they may come in contact with people who are infected - for example, during the ride in a car or bus on the way to the vaccination place, or while sitting with other people who are waiting for the injection, or who are resting briefly after getting it.

3. They caught covid in the days AFTER the vaccine.  The vaccine is not immediately effective.  It takes a couple of weeks to start building up immunity, and only after the second injection does it become very strong.  Even then, it's not 100%, so people need to continue to take precautions. 
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on January 21, 2021, 10:09:25 AM
You're hearing about people catching covid after vaccination, but there's no way they can catch it from the vaccine itself.  Here are a few possibilities:

1. They caught covid BEFORE they got the vaccine.  It takes an average of 5 days for symptoms to appear, but can be as much as 2-3 weeks later.  During that interval they got the vaccine, and mistakenly thought that the vaccine caused covid, but they really were already infected before they got the vaccine.

2. They caught covid DURING the time they went for the vaccine.  The most vulnerable people have been isolating at home, and when they go for the vaccine they may come in contact with people who are infected - for example, during the ride in a car or bus on the way to the vaccination place, or while sitting with other people who are waiting for the injection, or who are resting briefly after getting it.

3. They caught covid in the days AFTER the vaccine.  The vaccine is not immediately effective.  It takes a couple of weeks to start building up immunity, and only after the second injection does it become very strong.  Even then, it's not 100%, so people need to continue to take precautions.

A few cases could be explained like this, but there seem to be too many cases for it to be statistically plausible for these explanations to suffice in explaining away the infections as unrelated to the vaccine. I personally know multiple people that seemingly contracted covid from the vaccine; I have family members in healthcare and vaccination administration that have numerous patients that seem to have caught it from the vaccine. Scientifically, this should be impossible, unless there is something but being disclosed about the vaccine contents.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 21, 2021, 10:10:51 AM
You're hearing about people catching covid after vaccination, but there's no way they can catch it from the vaccine itself.  Here are a few possibilities:

1. They caught covid BEFORE they got the vaccine.  It takes an average of 5 days for symptoms to appear, but can be as much as 2-3 weeks later.  During that interval they got the vaccine, and mistakenly thought that the vaccine caused covid, but they really were already infected before they got the vaccine.

2. They caught covid DURING the time they went for the vaccine.  The most vulnerable people have been isolating at home, and when they go for the vaccine they may come in contact with people who are infected - for example, during the ride in a car or bus on the way to the vaccination place, or while sitting with other people who are waiting for the injection, or who are resting briefly after getting it.

3. They caught covid in the days AFTER the vaccine.  The vaccine is not immediately effective.  It takes a couple of weeks to start building up immunity, and only after the second injection does it become very strong.  Even then, it's not 100%, so people need to continue to take precautions.
All good points. One more thing is that after getting back vaccinated people loosen up and are not as careful. Especially in areas where the virus is spiking this can lead to exposure
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 21, 2021, 10:24:57 AM
A few cases could be explained like this, but there seem to be too many cases for it to be statistically plausible for these explanations to suffice in explaining away the infections as unrelated to the vaccine. I personally know multiple people that seemingly contracted covid from the vaccine; I have family members in healthcare and vaccination administration that have numerous patients that seem to have caught it from the vaccine. Scientifically, this should be impossible, unless there is something but being disclosed about the vaccine contents.

Could you explain a little better how  you conclude that it's scientifically impossible?
1. What number of cases would make it statistically plausible? 
2. For the people you know who contracted covid around the time of vaccination, can you ask them about their experiences at the three times I mentioned?  That is, do they recall any instances of being near other possibly-infected people in the days before or after vaccination?  Do they recall being seated near other people in a small room just before, during, or after the injection?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on January 21, 2021, 10:26:35 AM
You are as likely to get pregnant from getting the vaccine as you are to get COVID
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehuda57 on January 21, 2021, 10:27:03 AM
All good points. One more thing is that after getting back vaccinated people loosen up and are not as careful. Especially in areas where the virus is spiking this can lead to exposure

Yup, seen this first hand.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 21, 2021, 10:38:44 AM
You are as likely to get pregnant from getting the vaccine as you are to get COVID
So that's how it works!  They skipped that in my high school biology class.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehuda57 on January 21, 2021, 10:43:08 AM
You are as likely to get pregnant from getting the vaccine as you are to get COVID

Well that clinches it. I was worried about the 5g chips, seizures, Communism, and autism, but was still planning on getting vaccinated. But pregnancy? זאת לא.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 21, 2021, 10:56:16 AM
Could you explain a little better how  you conclude that it's scientifically impossible?
1. What number of cases would make it statistically plausible? 
2. For the people you know who contracted covid around the time of vaccination, can you ask them about their experiences at the three times I mentioned?  That is, do they recall any instances of being near other possibly-infected people in the days before or after vaccination?  Do they recall being seated near other people in a small room just before, during, or after the injection?

At first I thought the 10k number sounded high, but crunching the numbers now it doesnt sound that high after all.

10k/2.7m is 1:270. With 8-10k positives daily in Israel (including those vaccinated), thats 1:1000 every day, which over the past month would mean 200-300k Israelis (including the 10k you cite who were vaccinated) tested posifivd.

10k/200k would be exactly 95% efficacy. Obviously we didnt consider that of those 2.7m already vaccinated, more of those can get infected, but we also didnt consider that it takes time for antibodies to build up.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 21, 2021, 10:57:32 AM
5g chips, seizures, Communism, and autism

All of those cause pregnancy (and COVID) as well.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 21, 2021, 03:08:39 PM
Well that clinches it. I was worried about the 5g chips, seizures, Communism, and autism, but was still planning on getting vaccinated. But pregnancy? זאת לא.
Don't worry-Obamacare covers your pregnancy.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on January 21, 2021, 03:51:23 PM
Well that clinches it. I was worried about the 5g chips, seizures, Communism, and autism, but was still planning on getting vaccinated. But pregnancy? זאת לא.

It would give new meaning to the poll in this thread (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=18685.0).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on January 21, 2021, 03:52:37 PM
Don't worry-Obamacare covers your pregnancy.

I'm not certain about that. Case in point, on the New York State exchange, any female over the age of 12 is asked whether she is pregnant, there's no such question for males, even if they select female as their gender identity.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: aygart on January 21, 2021, 06:04:41 PM
I'm not certain about that. Case in point, on the New York State exchange, any female over the age of 12 is asked whether she is pregnant, there's no such question for males, even if they select female as their gender identity.
What about females who select male?

I think the requirement is federal, but they don't need to ask if they know the answer.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on January 22, 2021, 02:04:19 PM
A frum woman who participated in the Moderna trial and received the vaccine and had confirmed antibodies in September has now reported a severe case of COVID that she caught from her husband 2 days after Moderna released preliminary results of 94.5% effectiveness - not good news!

https://www.imamother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=399108

Update: She got the placebo. So much for that. Still interesting that she somehow tested for high antibodies mid-trial after receiving the placebo and not getting sick until much later.

https://www.imamother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=399108&start=100
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 22, 2021, 02:21:16 PM
Update: She got the placebo. So much for that. Still interesting that she somehow tested for high antibodies mid-trial after receiving the placebo and not getting sick until much later.

https://www.imamother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=399108&start=100

So shes a confirmed case of reinfection with high antibodies (with the first infection presumably with little or no symptoms). I guess her antibodies faded and/or she was infected with another strain. Things we dont have enough data on.

Uncommon, but it does happen.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 22, 2021, 03:19:55 PM
So shes a confirmed case of reinfection with high antibodies (with the first infection presumably with little or no symptoms). I guess her antibodies faded and/or she was infected with another strain. Things we dont have enough data on.

Uncommon, but it does happen.
Or antibodies were a false positive.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 22, 2021, 03:59:49 PM
Or antibodies were a false positive.

On a quantitative test? Does that make any sense?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 23, 2021, 07:49:59 PM
On a quantitative test? Does that make any sense?
There have been people who got PCR results for the wrong person, they may have gotten someone elses results.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 23, 2021, 08:07:41 PM
There have been people who got PCR results for the wrong person, they may have gotten someone elses results.

Much less likely to happen if the antibody tests were part of clinical trial data (not sure whether thats the case here or not). I would assume theyre much more careful with that.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 23, 2021, 10:23:28 PM
It bears noting that if 99.5% of people will not get Covid twice, still statistically 5 out of 1000 (even 99.9 will get 1 in a 1000) will get reinfected - meaning in Lakewood where many thousands were infected you will hear cases of being infected twice. That should not change the fact that one who got it is very very unlikely to get it twice.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 23, 2021, 10:36:43 PM
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2021/01/22/ohio-ranks-last-second-doses-covid-19-vaccines/6668670002/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: incendia on January 23, 2021, 10:48:29 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/22/health/pfizer-vaccine.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Health
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 23, 2021, 10:55:20 PM
It bears noting that if 99.5% of people will not get Covid twice, still statistically 5 out of 1000 (even 99.9 will get 1 in a 1000) will get reinfected - meaning in Lakewood where many thousands were infected you will hear cases of being infected twice. That should not change the fact that one who got it is very very unlikely to get it twice.

Your source for .5% reinfection rate?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 23, 2021, 10:57:54 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/22/health/pfizer-vaccine.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Health

Why is this just coming to light now? It's a 20% increase in available doses and if the 6th dose wasn't drawn and injected 1/6 doses have been tossed (for vials already administered and discarded).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 23, 2021, 11:01:26 PM
Your source for .5% reinfection rate?
The point I was trying to make is even if the reinfection rate is very very low still with such a large community we are going to hear some cases and no one should get nervous every time they hear about one.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 23, 2021, 11:03:23 PM
The point I was trying to make is even if the reinfection rate is very very low still with such a large community we are going to hear some cases and no one should get nervous every time they hear about one.

I agree that it's much less common than a 1st infection, but without real data we don't know exactly how risky it and under which circumstances it might be more common (e.g. maybe research will discover that reinfection is more common in older people or in people whose first infection was asymptomatic).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 23, 2021, 11:04:09 PM
Why is this just coming to light now? It's a 20% increase in available doses and if the 6th dose wasn't drawn and injected 1/6 doses have been tossed (for vials already administered and discarded).
This was reported several weeks ago https://www.wltz.com/2020/12/29/fda-okay-to-use-extra-dose-from-pfizer-vaccine-vials/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 23, 2021, 11:06:59 PM
This was reported several weeks ago https://www.wltz.com/2020/12/29/fda-okay-to-use-extra-dose-from-pfizer-vaccine-vials/

If the whole issue is the special syringe then include one with each vial. Or relax the rules on who's eligible for such doses since they might not even be there.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 24, 2021, 04:21:49 PM
Any reports of J&J stockpiles?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 24, 2021, 04:26:59 PM
Any reports of J&J stockpiles?

Reports of production delays (see the NYT link I posted above), so I doubt it.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehuda57 on January 24, 2021, 04:31:13 PM
Any reports of J&J stockpiles?

Well, after last year, they want to make sure everyone's cheesecakes are covered come Shavuos
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on January 24, 2021, 06:21:44 PM
There have been people who got PCR results for the wrong person, they may have gotten someone elses results.

Especially from the photoshop labs...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 24, 2021, 06:38:49 PM
Especially from the photoshop labs...

Are you following the conversation?

The lady in the mRNA vaccine trial claims she got infected after getting a placebo injected and after testing positive for antibodies. Youre suggesting her antibody test was from a photoshop lab?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: ExGingi on January 24, 2021, 07:58:22 PM
Are you following the conversation?

The lady in the mRNA vaccine trial claims she got infected after getting a placebo injected and after testing positive for antibodies. Youre suggesting her antibody test was from a photoshop lab?

פלגינן דיבורא

My comment was mostly in response to the first part of @avromie7's statement about getting results of other people, not about this specific case (just like @Yehuda57's comment was about J&J cream cheese stockpiles, not about any vaccine stockpiles).
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 25, 2021, 01:53:03 AM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 25, 2021, 02:02:42 AM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 25, 2021, 07:17:18 AM

How is this acceptable? Surowiecki is asking all the right questions, and those deserve answers.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 25, 2021, 11:55:37 AM
Im seeing this now:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/health/covid-vaccine-johnson-johnson.html

Looks like they expect to have some doses in March or April. June was the original target date for delivery of 100m doses.

Back to talking about 100m doses "by April or so". And data expected soon with EUA approval within a week or two.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 25, 2021, 12:00:16 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/covid-vaccine-moderna-working-on-covid-booster-shots-for-south-african-strain.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 25, 2021, 12:31:23 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/covid-vaccine-moderna-working-on-covid-booster-shots-for-south-african-strain.html

With regards to vaccine development and approval, how does this work? Can they adapt the existing vaccine or is that like starting from scratch?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehuda57 on January 25, 2021, 12:41:43 PM
With regards to vaccine development and approval, how does this work? Can they adapt the existing vaccine or is that like starting from scratch?

It's the same vaccine, just before they get shipped they spray the plane with an unidentified substance.*

*This joke is for an audience of one, @Dawie
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dawie on January 25, 2021, 12:54:35 PM
It's the same vaccine, just before they get shipped they spray the plane with an unidentified substance.*

*This joke is for an audience of one, @Dawie
ah, i was wondering why i was immune
was either that or the quinine in the gin and tonic
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 25, 2021, 01:03:54 PM
It's the same vaccine, just before they get shipped they spray the plane with an unidentified substance.*

*This joke is for an audience of one, @Dawie

Where can I get this immunity to South Africans? :D
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 25, 2021, 01:24:28 PM
Back to talking about 100m doses "by April or so". And data expected soon with EUA approval within a week or two.
Any talk of whom these 100m will be allocated to? Can be a game changer if the US gets the bulk of them.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 25, 2021, 03:04:36 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 26, 2021, 02:10:17 PM
I dont have patience to look for the original post discussing Gov/private market outsourced production of the Pfizer vaccine, but BH its finally happening. I hope Israel uses it macro economic windfall to subsidize and promote some serious local mRNA production & research capacity.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yitzgar on January 26, 2021, 02:14:51 PM
I dont have patience to look for the original post discussing Gov/private market outsourced production of the Pfizer vaccine, but BH its finally happening. I hope Israel uses it macro economic windfall to subsidize and promote some serious local mRNA production & research capacity.

This looks like just bottling the vaccine. Actual production would be amazing, but it's a giant leap from this.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 26, 2021, 02:45:09 PM
This looks like just bottling the vaccine. Actual production would be amazing, but it's a giant leap from this.

100m starting in July? This is too little too late IMHO. Yes its good news, but not enough to really change the game. I saw talk of Australia producing AZNs vaccine domestically at CSL, what I think we need is more initiatives like that so that production can somehow be franchised out.

ETA: By July Sanofi could already have or be close to EUA for their own protein-based COVID vaccine...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on January 26, 2021, 02:47:26 PM
10m from July? This is too little too late IMHO. Yes its good news, but not enough to really change the game. I saw talk of Australia producing AZNs vaccine domestically at CSL, what I think we need is more initiatives like that so that production can somehow be franchised out.

Right.  And then even after production is ramped up (however they do it) they also need to get their act together to get the shot into people's arms.  That has been excessively slow as well in the USA.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 26, 2021, 02:51:56 PM
Right.  And then even after production is ramped up (however they do it) they also need to get their act together to get the shot into people's arms.  That has been excessively slow as well in the USA.

A vaccine like J&Js thats shelf stable is less of a logistical challenge to distribute, combined with supply that exceeds demand, will make for less of an imperative to strictly regulate distribution to healthcare workers, the elderly, and other at-risk populations.

Any word on how much of a difference invoking the Defense Production Act will have on vaccine production?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 26, 2021, 02:59:30 PM
This looks like just bottling the vaccine. Actual production would be amazing, but it's a giant leap from this.
Aargh, the devil is in the details.

I saw talk of Australia producing AZNs vaccine domestically at CSL, what I think we need is more initiatives like that so that production can somehow be franchised out.
AZN vaccine is pro-bono so a different ballgame. India is producing it as well.

Any word on how much of a difference invoking the Defense Production Act will have on vaccine production?
The Trump admin used the DPA as well, the question is what can be done. I think Pfizer production isn't in the US (likely for this reason), but they can stop Moderna from exporting from the US plant (if they are).

I'll repeat my opinion the government should be buying the IP and publicizing the recipe. Pfizer is a $200b chokehold on humanity now.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on January 26, 2021, 03:03:48 PM
Aargh, the devil is in the details.
AZN vaccine is pro-bono so a different ballgame. India is producing it as well.
The Trump admin used the DPA as well, the question is what can be done. I think Pfizer production isn't in the US (likely for this reason), but they can stop Moderna from exporting from the US plant (if they are).

I'll repeat my opinion the government should be buying the IP and publicizing the recipe. Pfizer is a $200b chokehold on humanity now.
Only problem is, we don't really know if AZN vaccine works
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 26, 2021, 03:05:13 PM
Only problem is, we don't really know if AZN vaccine works
Yup, I considered adding in - AZN is pro-bono and hence a giant snafu. Pfizer and Moderna deserve to be rewarded fairly but not infinitely.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yitzgar on January 26, 2021, 03:09:05 PM
If that means what it sounds like, I protest strongly against use of profanity
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 26, 2021, 03:11:46 PM
If that means what it sounds like, I protest strongly against use of profanity
I don't think it was a profanity but I updated it nevertheless
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 26, 2021, 04:26:34 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-26/pfizer-to-deliver-u-s-vaccine-doses-faster-than-expected-ceo

200m/2 doses to be delivered to the US by May. The end is near
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 26, 2021, 04:48:04 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-26/pfizer-to-deliver-u-s-vaccine-doses-faster-than-expected-ceo

200m/2 doses to be delivered to the US by May. The end is near

1. Ill believe it when I see it.
2. They still have to figure out distribution, too many doses are sitting in storage.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 26, 2021, 04:53:20 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-26/pfizer-to-deliver-u-s-vaccine-doses-faster-than-expected-ceo

200m/2 doses to be delivered to the US by May. The end is near

Another worrisome thing here is this quote from that article:

Quote
While Bourla does not anticipate the coronavirus will be eradicated, he said the pharmaceutical industry has the tools necessary to make the virus like the flu.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 26, 2021, 04:55:33 PM
Another worrisome thing here is this quote from that article:
Does anybody really think it will be completely non existent in 5 years? We have to be more specific when we say Covid will still be around.

Also, that statement is tailored for the stock market. The problem will continue for many years, but we have the medicine.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 26, 2021, 04:59:30 PM
Does anybody really think it will be completely non existent in 5 years? We have to be more specific when we say Covid will still be around.

Also, that statement is tailored for the stock market. The problem will continue for many years, but we have the medicine.

Hundreds of millions of COVID boosters annually is a massive boon for Pfizer, massive!!!
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 26, 2021, 05:02:18 PM
Hundreds of millions of COVID boosters annually is a massive boon for Pfizer, massive!!!
That's his dream, and the more people dream like that, the thicker his wallet is.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 26, 2021, 06:56:49 PM
100m starting in July? This is too little too late IMHO. Yes its good news, but not enough to really change the game. I saw talk of Australia producing AZNs vaccine domestically at CSL, what I think we need is more initiatives like that so that production can somehow be franchised out.

ETA: By July Sanofi could already have or be close to EUA for their own protein-based COVID vaccine...
So far all of Bidens "major" COVID announcements have been very underwhelming, starting with his announcement of 100m doses administered in 100 days, we're currently at a 7 day average of 1.25m doses per day. The Trump admin had the option to buy these doses too and they declined because they're not being delivered in a timely manner. What are the odds these doses never end up being used (at least in the US)?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 26, 2021, 07:27:09 PM
So far all of Bidens "major" COVID announcements have been very underwhelming, starting with his announcement of 100m doses administered in 100 days, we're currently at a 7 day average of 1.25m doses per day. The Trump admin had the option to buy these doses too and they declined because they're not being delivered in a timely manner. What are the odds these doses never end up being used (at least in the US)?

I dont understand what youre asking. What are you suggesting will happen with those doses and if not those doses then what (if anything) are you suggesting will vaccinate the US population?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yitzgar on January 26, 2021, 07:37:44 PM
I don't think it was a profanity but I updated it nevertheless
Thank you
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 27, 2021, 09:20:38 AM
I dont understand what youre asking. What are you suggesting will happen with those doses and if not those doses then what (if anything) are you suggesting will vaccinate the US population?
The previous contracts and other vaccines including J&J.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 27, 2021, 09:29:44 AM
The previous contracts and other vaccines including J&J.

Lots of variables, my guess is it will be a combination of:
1. Who delivers doses first
2. Efficacy of J&J vaccine
3. Point-of-service availability of J&J vaccine vs. mRNA vaccine
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on January 29, 2021, 09:21:13 AM
Lots of variables, my guess is it will be a combination of:
1. Who delivers doses first
2. Efficacy of J&J vaccine
3. Point-of-service availability of J&J vaccine vs. mRNA vaccine
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Ouch.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on January 29, 2021, 09:23:35 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Ouch.
:(
Not worth it for them to test a 2 dose regimen?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 29, 2021, 09:30:23 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Ouch.

I was concerned this might happen:

Lots of variables, my guess is it will be a combination of:
1. Who delivers doses first
2. Efficacy of J&J vaccine
3. Point-of-service availability of J&J vaccine vs. mRNA vaccine

With only 66% efficacy this vaccine barely hits the threshold for mitigating spread/herd immunity. Indeed, its a cheap vaccine for the 3rd world.

I wonder how JNJs vaccine performs against variants compared to mRNA vaccines. In the unlikely event it performs better (and mRNA boosters for variants take too long to bring to market) that might be a game changer.

ETA: The vaccine efficacy was 72% in the US and 66% globally, which implies an even lower efficacy than 66% outside the US. Tells me:
1. Its likely less effective against variants
2. It might not be vaccine for the 3rd world
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 29, 2021, 09:32:15 AM
:(
Not worth it for them to test a 2 dose regimen?

I think I read they were testing this but dont expect data until the summer.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 29, 2021, 09:37:51 AM
Stupid question, but if JNJ vaccine is readily available and Moderna/Pfizer require a wait, can I get JNJ now and mRNA later? How risky/foolish is that?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: iluv2travel on January 29, 2021, 09:53:18 AM
ETA: The vaccine efficacy was 72% in the US and 66% globally, which implies an even lower efficacy than 66% outside the US. Tells me:
1. Its likely less effective against variants
2. It might not be vaccine for the 3rd world

Correct. The article says it was only 57% effective in South Africa due to the "variant known as B.1.351, which is known to be more contagious and carries mutations that may make the virus less susceptible to the antibody immune response -- including antibodies prompted by vaccination."

Not such great news at all :(.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on January 29, 2021, 10:05:52 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Ouch.
Can't say this was unexpected. Clearly, mRNA vaccines are the future.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 29, 2021, 11:33:15 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Ouch.
Quote
Janssen is already testing a two-dose regimen of the vaccine and that could increase the efficacy, Fauci said.
"Let's see what that shows. It could possibly bring it up to 90%," he said. "Heck if you got 72 with a single dose, you would think you would do pretty good with a boost."
:(
Not worth it for them to test a 2 dose regimen?
I think I read they were testing this but dont expect data until the summer.
Halfway through the trial they started a 2 dose trial with 30k participants, I assume they saw the writing on the wall when there were more cases among the vaccine group than they had hoped for. Considering the efficacy of 1 dose of Pfizer and Moderna are also significantly lower I think there is a good chance the 2 dose has better results.

My guess is they work on EUA and maybe even start administering 1 dose, and when the trial comes back with good news for 2 doses they can immediately start administering second doses.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 29, 2021, 11:34:57 AM
Halfway through the trial they started a 2 dose trial with 30k participants, I assume they saw the writing on the wall when there were more cases among the vaccine group than they had hoped for. Considering the efficacy of 1 dose of Pfizer and Moderna are also significantly lower I think there is a good chance the 2 dose has better results.

My guess is they work on EUA and maybe even start administering 1 dose, and when the trial comes back with good news for 2 doses they can immediately start administering second doses.

I thought I read 2-dose data won't be available until summer.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 29, 2021, 11:37:49 AM
Can't say this was unexpected. Clearly, mRNA vaccines are the future.

Only if the claim that they can quickly adapt to add/make-a-booster-for variants holds up, including whatever testing/regulatory stuff needs to happen. Also, the mRNA trials were on populations where these variants weren't prevalent, my guess is if they trialed (large phase III trial)  the current mRNA vaccinates in the UK/Brazil/SA they'd get lower efficacy. But they have no incentive to do this, and every incentive not to.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: avromie7 on January 29, 2021, 11:45:01 AM
Only if the claim that they can quickly adapt to add/make-a-booster-for variants holds up, including whatever testing/regulatory stuff needs to happen. Also, the mRNA trials were on populations where these variants weren't prevalent, my guess is if they trialed (large phase III trial)  the current mRNA vaccinates in the UK/Brazil/SA they'd get lower efficacy. But they have no incentive to do this, and every incentive not to.
It seems to have full efficacy in Israel where they do have the other variants now.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 29, 2021, 11:54:09 AM
It seems to have full efficacy in Israel where they do have the other variants now.

How prevalent are those other variants in Israel? If they aren't very prevalent then the data from Israel isn't a strong indication of efficacy against variants.

What's interesting is that AZN's vaccine efficacy is >70% and it was tested in the UK, SA, and Brazil, all locations with variants (not sure on timing or how many clinical trial infections were of those variants). Can't wait to see AZN data from US clinical trial.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 29, 2021, 01:33:51 PM
How prevalent are those other variants in Israel? If they aren't very prevalent then the data from Israel isn't a strong indication of efficacy against variants.

What's interesting is that AZN's vaccine efficacy is >70% and it was tested in the UK, SA, and Brazil, all locations with variants (not sure on timing or how many clinical trial infections were of those variants). Can't wait to see AZN data from US clinical trial.

Israel has about 70% prevalence of the UK variant. Only a handful of SA variant (attempting to contact trace and track them carefully), and none of P.1 Brazil variant.

AZN trials may have been before the variants emerged widely.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 29, 2021, 01:34:42 PM
AZN trials may have been before the variants emerged widely.

Correct. Would be interesting if they could somehow retroactively ascertain this.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 29, 2021, 01:40:29 PM
Correct. Would be interesting if they could somehow retroactively ascertain this.
I would imagine they saved the samples from covid events, and in the UK some of them were probably sequenced already. With AZN it all comes back to the same problem - it's pro-bono and unprofessional.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 29, 2021, 02:05:15 PM
With AZN it all comes back to the same problem - it's pro-bono and unprofessional.

If it'll stand up to regulatory scrutiny it has to be professional, it can't be a high school science project. Granted they might not have the budget, expertise, or manpower of Pfizer, but I wouldn't call that unprofessional.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: grodnoking on January 29, 2021, 04:17:59 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Ouch.
Any data on if it reduces severity of cases after the vaccine?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 29, 2021, 04:20:34 PM
Any data on if it reduces severity of cases after the vaccine?
Yes around 85% effective against severe disease IINM.
The 60% figures dont do it justice
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Moshe123 on January 29, 2021, 04:31:23 PM
Why is there no mention from J&J on the efficacy in regards to preventing infection?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 29, 2021, 04:33:39 PM
Why is there no mention from J&J on the efficacy in regards to preventing infection?

What do you think the 66% (global) and 72% (US) numbers are?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Moshe123 on January 29, 2021, 04:46:06 PM
What do you think the 66% (global) and 72% (US) numbers are?

Moderate to severe illness. What about the tier below that?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 30, 2021, 06:41:56 PM
Moderate to severe illness. What about the tier below that?

See the chart in this article, I think the clinical trials must have been designed differently with different endpoints being studied.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/30/22257557/antivirus-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-results
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 30, 2021, 07:01:59 PM
Moderate to severe illness. What about the tier below that?
Moderate is probably any symptom, and without repetitively testing the entire sample cohort, there is no way to know about asymptomatic infection.

They didn't test for it because they didn't want to have the number...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on January 30, 2021, 07:25:07 PM
https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

Can any places other than China keep up social distancing protocols for another 15 months? Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-setbacks-damp-europes-prospects-for-normal-summer-11611597792?mod=searchresults_pos2&page=1&mod=article_inline


The EU, which centralizes vaccine procurement for its members, has ordered 2.3 billion doses from six manufacturers and set a target for the regions governments to immunize 70% of adults in the bloc by the summer, a goal that seems increasingly out of reach.

This means there is little hope of an end to lockdowns and other constraints on public life soon,
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on January 30, 2021, 10:43:02 PM
Antibody can be produced in two cases: when you are infected with the virus, and when you get the vaccine. Antibody looks the same in both cases.  The antibody test just picks up antibody, and the test doesn't "know" whether the antibody had been made in response to the virus or to the vaccine. A positive antibody test doesn't "prove" that you are immune, that is, we don't yet know how much antibody you need to be considered immune.  But whatever that number is, it shouldn't matter whether you got there as a result of getting covid, or as a result of getting the vaccine.   


A doctor in Far Rockaway whose virus updates I receive sent out the following yesterday, which seems to say that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are NOT necessarily the same as those produced in response to infection. Similarly, Rabbi Dr. Glatt said in one of his recent Motzei Shabbos programs that he was surprised that several of his medical colleagues tested themselves for antibodies after getting vaccinated and were disappointed that their tests came back negative. He explained that the antibodies tested for by current antibody tests are not necessarily the same as those produced by the vaccine, so he discouraged those who've been vaccinated from doing so. Any additional insights on this topic @biobook or anyone else?


At this time, it is NOT recommended that vaccinated people test for antibodies.
 
Current data indicates that most vaccinated people will develop a significant degree of immunity by two weeks after their second dose.
 
However, it is possible that vaccinated people will produce antibodies that differ slightly from those produced by actual infection and therefore will not be detected by current lab tests.
 
New antibody tests will hopefully be available in the near future that will test for the specific type of antibodies produced after vaccination.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 30, 2021, 10:45:21 PM
Yes, vaccines produce a narrow subset of infection antibodies, and some assays won't detect those.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: incendia on January 30, 2021, 10:53:23 PM
A doctor in Far Rockaway whose virus updates I receive sent out the following yesterday, which seems to say that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are NOT necessarily the same as those produced in response to infection. Similarly, Rabbi Dr. Glatt said in one of his recent Motzei Shabbos programs that he was surprised that several of his medical colleagues tested themselves for antibodies after getting vaccinated and were disappointed that their tests came back negative. He explained that the antibodies tested for by current antibody tests are not necessarily the same as those produced by the vaccine, so he discouraged those who've been vaccinated from doing so. Any additional insights on this topic @biobook or anyone else?


At this time, it is NOT recommended that vaccinated people test for antibodies.
 
Current data indicates that most vaccinated people will develop a significant degree of immunity by two weeks after their second dose.
 
However, it is possible that vaccinated people will produce antibodies that differ slightly from those produced by actual infection and therefore will not be detected by current lab tests.
 
New antibody tests will hopefully be available in the near future that will test for the specific type of antibodies produced after vaccination.

The vaccines only replicates one part (spike protein) of the virus so your body can only make antibodies for that part but its enough to give you protection from getting sick.

A natural infection will produce antibodies for several different parts of the virus. They must be testing for one or more of the antibodies not used in the vaccine.

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 30, 2021, 10:58:36 PM
A doctor in Far Rockaway whose virus updates I receive sent out the following yesterday, which seems to say that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are NOT necessarily the same as those produced in response to infection. Similarly, Rabbi Dr. Glatt said in one of his recent Motzei Shabbos programs that he was surprised that several of his medical colleagues tested themselves for antibodies after getting vaccinated and were disappointed that their tests came back negative. He explained that the antibodies tested for by current antibody tests are not necessarily the same as those produced by the vaccine, so he discouraged those who've been vaccinated from doing so. Any additional insights on this topic @biobook or anyone else?


At this time, it is NOT recommended that vaccinated people test for antibodies.
 
Current data indicates that most vaccinated people will develop a significant degree of immunity by two weeks after their second dose.
 
However, it is possible that vaccinated people will produce antibodies that differ slightly from those produced by actual infection and therefore will not be detected by current lab tests.
 
New antibody tests will hopefully be available in the near future that will test for the specific type of antibodies produced after vaccination.
But if you did test for antibodies after taking the vaccine and you did get a positive result - does that prove that you now have antibodies?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 30, 2021, 11:03:10 PM
But if you did test for antibodies after taking the vaccine and you did get a positive result - does that prove that you now have antibodies?
They may not be fully effective yet.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 30, 2021, 11:08:26 PM


There is light at the end of the tunnel
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on January 30, 2021, 11:13:46 PM
A doctor in Far Rockaway whose virus updates I receive sent out the following yesterday, which seems to say that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are NOT necessarily the same as those produced in response to infection. Similarly, Rabbi Dr. Glatt said in one of his recent Motzei Shabbos programs that he was surprised that several of his medical colleagues tested themselves for antibodies after getting vaccinated and were disappointed that their tests came back negative. He explained that the antibodies tested for by current antibody tests are not necessarily the same as those produced by the vaccine, so he discouraged those who've been vaccinated from doing so. Any additional insights on this topic @biobook or anyone else?


At this time, it is NOT recommended that vaccinated people test for antibodies.
 
Current data indicates that most vaccinated people will develop a significant degree of immunity by two weeks after their second dose.
 
However, it is possible that vaccinated people will produce antibodies that differ slightly from those produced by actual infection and therefore will not be detected by current lab tests.
 
New antibody tests will hopefully be available in the near future that will test for the specific type of antibodies produced after vaccination.
Fake news.
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116555.msg2397323#msg2397323
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on January 30, 2021, 11:15:35 PM
The vaccines only replicates one part (spike protein) of the virus so your body can only make antibodies for that part but its enough to give you protection from getting sick.

A natural infection will produce antibodies for several different parts of the virus. They must be testing for one or more of the antibodies not used in the vaccine.


Fake news.
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116555.msg2397323#msg2397323
Seems like some tests will pick up it up, others won't.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 30, 2021, 11:17:05 PM
Fake news.
Depends which test is used.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on January 30, 2021, 11:18:20 PM
Depends which test is used.
Roche has been the gold standard. Not sure why people are wasting their time on other tests.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 30, 2021, 11:21:21 PM
the gold standard. Not sure why people are wasting their time on other
The age old question since קין...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 30, 2021, 11:29:08 PM
A doctor in Far Rockaway whose virus updates I receive sent out the following yesterday, which seems to say that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are NOT necessarily the same as those produced in response to infection. Similarly, Rabbi Dr. Glatt said in one of his recent Motzei Shabbos programs that he was surprised that several of his medical colleagues tested themselves for antibodies after getting vaccinated and were disappointed that their tests came back negative. He explained that the antibodies tested for by current antibody tests are not necessarily the same as those produced by the vaccine, so he discouraged those who've been vaccinated from doing so. Any additional insights on this topic @biobook or anyone else?


At this time, it is NOT recommended that vaccinated people test for antibodies.
 
Current data indicates that most vaccinated people will develop a significant degree of immunity by two weeks after their second dose.
 
However, it is possible that vaccinated people will produce antibodies that differ slightly from those produced by actual infection and therefore will not be detected by current lab tests.
 
New antibody tests will hopefully be available in the near future that will test for the specific type of antibodies produced after vaccination.

Where do you get Dr. Glatt's videos?  I used to find them on 5tjt, but they seem to have stopped.

What I wrote above was based on my understanding of what Dr. Bar-Zev had said in that video, and he's the expert, but I would also say that Dr. Glatt is the expert, so I guess the conclusion is that experts are still debating this.  That's actually what the CDC says:
If your body develops an immune responsethe goal of vaccinationthere is a possibility you may test positive on some antibody tests. Antibody tests indicate you had a previous infection and that you may have some level of protection against the virus. Experts are currently looking at how COVID-19 vaccination may affect antibody testing results.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/facts.html

In addition to possible differences in antibodies, it is also possible that the antibody response is low, but the T cells are high, and maybe the T cells are more important for maintaining immunity after vaccination.

But if you did test for antibodies after taking the vaccine and you did get a positive result - does that prove that you now have antibodies?
You have antibodies, but it's not clear what level of antibodies is enough for immunity, and not clear what the importance of antibodies are relative to T cells for immunity.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/covid-vaccine-labcorp-ceo-says-recipients-dont-need-antibody-test-afterward.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 30, 2021, 11:31:05 PM
Fake news.
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=116555.msg2397323#msg2397323

No chance he ever got infected (maybe even asymptomatic)?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 30, 2021, 11:32:47 PM
They may not be fully effective yet.
Source?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Dan on January 30, 2021, 11:51:15 PM
No chance he ever got infected (maybe even asymptomatic)?
Was negative for antibodies before he took the vaccine.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 31, 2021, 12:04:28 AM
Source?
The original trials. People were positive for antibodies before full efficacy was seen.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Traveler718 on January 31, 2021, 12:05:28 AM
Where do you get Dr. Glatt's videos?  I used to find them on 5tjt, but they seem to have stopped.


I usually watch them live on Zoom. I signed up to receive the updates and notifications by emailing yiwoodmerecovidupdate@gmail.com. They are all archived on Youtube, just search for Dr. Glatt Covid and they'll all come up.

The point that I quoted from him can be found at
starting at 33:00.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 31, 2021, 12:07:15 AM
The original trials. People were positive for antibodies before full efficacy was seen.

There were those who got the real thing (not a placebo), tested positive for antibodies, and got infected afterward?

Or just that antibodies were observed in some subjects within the time period before full efficacy was established?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 31, 2021, 12:09:15 AM
There were those who got the real thing (not a placebo), tested positive for antibodies, and got infected afterward?

Or just that antibodies were observed in some subjects within the time period before full efficacy was established?
I don't remember exactly. I believe antibodies were measured in everybody following vaccination and the efficacy timeline is independent of that.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 31, 2021, 12:31:07 AM
The original trials. People were positive for antibodies before full efficacy was seen.
Source?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 31, 2021, 12:39:52 AM
Source?

I don't remember exactly.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 31, 2021, 01:03:26 AM
Source?
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1

Quote
S1- and RBD-binding IgG concentrations and SARS-CoV-2 neutralising titers were assessed at baseline (day 1), 7 and 21 days after the BNT162b2 priming dose (days 8 and 22), and 7, 21, 28 and 63 days after the booster dose (days 29, 43 and 50;



You can see in the following figure how virtually everybody had some antibody response before the second dose

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 31, 2021, 08:45:11 AM
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1



You can see in the following figure how virtually everybody had some antibody response before the second dose

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195
Ill look through it. Ty
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 31, 2021, 12:55:50 PM
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1



You can see in the following figure how virtually everybody had some antibody response before the second dose

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195
I'm not seeing what your implying that a positive test for antibodies does not show that the vaccine worked, @biobook Wanna weigh in?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 31, 2021, 01:01:11 PM
I'm not seeing what your implying that a positive test for antibodies does not show that the vaccine worked, @biobook Wanna weigh in?
In the figure in this link each line represents a single person, and it shows almost every single participant tested positive for antibodies after a first dose, yet we know it wasn't fully effective until the second does.



You can see in the following figure how virtually everybody had some antibody response before the second dose

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 31, 2021, 01:16:29 PM
You have antibodies, but it's not clear what level of antibodies is enough for immunity, and not clear what the importance of antibodies are relative to T cells for immunity.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/covid-vaccine-labcorp-ceo-says-recipients-dont-need-antibody-test-afterward.html
Source?

I think you're saying that a positive for antibodies result in a few days after the vaccine does not imply immunity however I personally still think that a high antibody result x amount of days after a vaccine, should imply that your vaccine is working.

IME, not e/o who took the vaccine automatically tetsed positive for antibodies 
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on January 31, 2021, 01:31:11 PM
IME, not e/o who took the vaccine automatically tetsed positive for antibodies
They are likely using the wrong tests. The trials are showing virtually everybody does.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 31, 2021, 02:09:27 PM
I think you're saying that a positive for antibodies result in a few days after the vaccine does not imply immunity
Yes, that's exactly right. 
If you DO have antibodies after the vaccine, it's still possible that your antibody levels are too low and you ARE NOT immune. 
If you DON'T have antibodies after the vaccine, it's still possible that your T cells are now high enough that you ARE immune.

(I assume you mean a few days after the second vaccine, since it would take a while to get high antibodies after the first.)

Quote
however I personally still think that a high antibody result x amount of days after a vaccine, should imply that your vaccine is working.

It is possible that in some people the vaccine "works" to produce antibodies, but doesn't "work" to confer immunity.  But you're not entering a contest to see who gets the most antibodies; (semicolon!) you want immunity.  The experts are still not sure what exact value for antibodies/T cells corresponds to immunity. 

You're conflating two ways of thinking about this: What's the current scientific understanding? What do I personally think is likely?  I've tried to answer the first, and you're answering the second.

Quote
IME, not e/o who took the vaccine automatically tetsed positive for antibodies
Could be that they'll take longer to develop antibodies.   Could be that their T cells are high, and just haven't been tested for.  Could be that they are less likely to be immune.  We just don't know yet how to answer that for an individual.  For a large population, like the 20,000 in the clinical trial, we can say that there's a high probability that people will be immune after the vaccine.  But we can't answer that for any one individual, and don't know why a small percentage of people still got covid after the vaccine.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: how on January 31, 2021, 02:15:04 PM
Yes, that's exactly right. 
If you DO have antibodies after the vaccine, it's still possible that your antibody levels are too low and you ARE NOT immune. 
If you DON'T have antibodies after the vaccine, it's still possible that your T cells are now high enough that you ARE immune.

(I assume you mean a few days after the second vaccine, since it would take a while to get high antibodies after the first.)
 
It is possible that in some people the vaccine "works" to produce antibodies, but doesn't "work" to confer immunity.  But you're not entering a contest to see who gets the most antibodies; (semicolon!) you want immunity.  The experts are still not sure what exact value for antibodies/T cells corresponds to immunity. 

You're conflating two ways of thinking about this: What's the current scientific understanding? What do I personally think is likely?  I've tried to answer the first, and you're answering the second.
Could be that they'll take longer to develop antibodies.   Could be that their T cells are high, and just haven't been tested for.  Could be that they are less likely to be immune.  We just don't know yet how to answer that for an individual.  For a large population, like the 20,000 in the clinical trial, we can say that there's a high probability that people will be immune after the vaccine.  But we can't answer that for any one individual, and don't know why a small percentage of people still got covid after the vaccine.
I hear Thank you
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on January 31, 2021, 02:16:26 PM
I usually watch them live on Zoom. I signed up to receive the updates and notifications by emailing yiwoodmerecovidupdate@gmail.com. They are all archived on Youtube, just search for Dr. Glatt Covid and they'll all come up.
Thanks, @Traveler718 . I'm sorry I missed out on these excellent talks.  There had been some kerfuffle a while back, and it was after that that the 5tjt stopped highlighting them, and I assumed that he had stopped giving them.  Gotta go listen...


Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on January 31, 2021, 06:37:18 PM
With 95% efficacy unfortunatly there will still be cases.
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1179973
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on January 31, 2021, 06:54:41 PM
With 95% efficacy unfortunatly there will still be cases.
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1179973

Theres always the 5%, and 5% of a very large number is still a significant count. The question is whether these numbers are significantly worse the the 95% that was reported or not. Without a frame of reference to compare to its hard to say, as it seems like these numbers might be from the beginning of vaccinations in Israel up until the day these were compiled, during that time tens (maybe hundreds) of thousands of Israelis tested positive.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on January 31, 2021, 07:45:14 PM
Theres always the 5%, and 5% of a very large number is still a significant count. The question is whether these numbers are significantly worse the the 95% that was reported or not. Without a frame of reference to compare to its hard to say, as it seems like these numbers might be from the beginning of vaccinations in Israel up until the day these were compiled, during that time tens (maybe hundreds) of thousands of Israelis tested positive.
And millions were vaccinated
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on February 01, 2021, 04:59:17 AM
Thread title should be bumped up by a year

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/first-mass-air-shipment-of-pfizers-covid-vaccine-arrives-as-airlines-prepare-for-more.html

Title should probably be changed to 2022 and beyond.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccination-delays-put-global-rebound-at-risk-11612112184?mod=mhp

Timetables for vaccinating enough people to effectively curb Covid-19 are slipping in many countries, raising fears that a large portion of the world will still be battling the pandemic and its economic effects well into 2022 or beyond.

Analysts doubt other countries can reach their stated targets. In Indonesia, officials want to vaccinate 65% of a population of 270 million in 15 months, which would more likely take three to four years, according to analysts at IMA Asia.


Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 01, 2021, 06:52:41 AM
Title should probably be changed to 2022 and beyond.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccination-delays-put-global-rebound-at-risk-11612112184?mod=mhp

Timetables for vaccinating enough people to effectively curb Covid-19 are slipping in many countries, raising fears that a large portion of the world will still be battling the pandemic and its economic effects well into 2022 or beyond.

Analysts doubt other countries can reach their stated targets. In Indonesia, officials want to vaccinate 65% of a population of 270 million in 15 months, which would more likely take three to four years, according to analysts at IMA Asia.

Doesnt  this really mean more mutations and potential reinfection of people vaccinated with existing vaccines? Sigh. We (humanity) really are all in this together.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: chayal101 on February 02, 2021, 11:09:48 AM
You're hearing about people catching covid after vaccination, but there's no way they can catch it from the vaccine itself.  Here are a few possibilities:

1. They caught covid BEFORE they got the vaccine.  It takes an average of 5 days for symptoms to appear, but can be as much as 2-3 weeks later.  During that interval they got the vaccine, and mistakenly thought that the vaccine caused covid, but they really were already infected before they got the vaccine.

2. They caught covid DURING the time they went for the vaccine.  The most vulnerable people have been isolating at home, and when they go for the vaccine they may come in contact with people who are infected - for example, during the ride in a car or bus on the way to the vaccination place, or while sitting with other people who are waiting for the injection, or who are resting briefly after getting it.

3. They caught covid in the days AFTER the vaccine.  The vaccine is not immediately effective.  It takes a couple of weeks to start building up immunity, and only after the second injection does it become very strong.  Even then, it's not 100%, so people need to continue to take precautions.
We can come up with alot of good reasons for the sudden outbreak. To say that a new covid variant develops just as thousands are inoculated... I find it hard to just brush off that they may actually be related!!
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on February 02, 2021, 11:30:31 AM
We can come up with alot of good reasons for the sudden outbreak. To say that a new covid variant develops just as thousands are inoculated... I find it hard to just brush off that they may actually be related!!
This is a very normal human thought process, when we see two things happen at the same time, we consider that they may be related.  This is a valuable response, because it encourages us to change our behavior accordingly.

I eat the leftover gefilte fish that's been in the fridge for a week... I get stomach cramps.  I guess they may be related, and next time I throw out food that's been sitting for that long.  Good!

I go to a noisy wedding... and my ears are ringing the next day.  I guess they may be related, and next time I go to a wedding I bring ear plugs.  Good!

I drive to work... and get in an awful traffic jam.  I guess they may be related, and next day I quit going to work.  Uh... maybe not so good!

When we see two things occurring at the same time, our first thought is that they may be related, but that shouldn't be our last thought on the matter.  We need to examine more carefully whether or not there really is a relationship between them, and exactly what that relationship might be.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Euclid on February 02, 2021, 11:47:52 AM
This is a very normal human thought process, when we see two things happen at the same time, we consider that they may be related.  This is a valuable response, because it encourages us to change our behavior accordingly.

I eat the leftover gefilte fish that's been in the fridge for a week... I get stomach cramps.  I guess they may be related, and next time I throw out food that's been sitting for that long.  Good!

I go to a noisy wedding... and my ears are ringing the next day.  I guess they may be related, and next time I go to a wedding I bring ear plugs.  Good!

I drive to work... and get in an awful traffic jam.  I guess they may be related, and next day I quit going to work.  Uh... maybe not so good!

When we see two things occurring at the same time, our first thought is that they may be related, but that shouldn't be our last thought on the matter.  We need to examine more carefully whether or not there really is a relationship between them, and exactly what that relationship might be.
(You have the patience of Hillel Hazaken.)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Yehuda57 on February 02, 2021, 11:55:19 AM
This

You have been Best Ofed  (https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=53386.msg2398692#msg2398692)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yelped on February 02, 2021, 01:22:44 PM
@biobook You are a Tzadekes.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 03, 2021, 03:19:56 PM

ברוך שמסר עולמו לשומרים
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: skyguy918 on February 03, 2021, 04:12:04 PM
...We (humanity) really are all in this together.
Relevant: (interesting to note that while John Green almost certainly supports universal healthcare, I don't think Bill Gates has publicly taken a stance on it)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: biobook on February 04, 2021, 02:36:14 AM
Stupid question, but if JNJ vaccine is readily available and Moderna/Pfizer require a wait, can I get JNJ now and mRNA later? How risky/foolish is that?
Looks like nobody knows, but they're trying to figure out if mixing and matching will work:

"The United Kingdom is launching the worlds first study examining whether different coronavirus vaccines can safely be used for two-dose regimens.   
Participants in the study will be given the vaccine in alternating doses -- for example, Oxford/AstraZeneca for the first dose and Pfizer/BioNTech for the second. "
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-02-03-21/index.html
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: chayal101 on February 04, 2021, 03:20:01 PM


This is a very normal human thought process, when we see two things happen at the same time, we consider that they may be related.  This is a valuable response, because it encourages us to change our behavior accordingly....

Interesting, i missed this post! I appreciate your answer. You're 100% right.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on February 05, 2021, 03:17:39 PM
Ohio finally did 65k in a day trending up.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 06, 2021, 07:46:28 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: S209 on February 09, 2021, 07:07:51 PM
Its February. More people in the US have been vaccinated than have tested positive for COVID.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 09, 2021, 07:31:56 PM
Its February. More people in the US have been vaccinated than have tested positive for COVID.
'Everybody will get Covid sooner or later'
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 09, 2021, 08:24:55 PM
'Everybody will get Covid sooner or later'

Oh, I meant everybody will get antibodies, same difference

/s
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 09, 2021, 08:26:38 PM
Its February. More people in the US have been vaccinated than have tested positive for COVID.
For what it's worth, that threshold was crossed on Jan 29
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 09, 2021, 08:27:04 PM
Oh, I meant everybody will get antibodies, same difference

/s
LOL
I guess if the vaccines are as deadly as the virus...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 01:34:59 AM

Looks like well pass the 3M/day flu shot benchmark soon, hopefully 4-5m/day if production ramps up before hesitancy affects demand
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 02:36:46 AM

Chinese vax
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on February 10, 2021, 06:39:24 AM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-team-fears-no-covid-19-herd-immunity-until-thanksgiving
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 10, 2021, 07:01:32 AM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-team-fears-no-covid-19-herd-immunity-until-thanksgiving

If we have herd immunity by thanksgiving that would be nice actually. Im not even hopeful for that...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yitzgar on February 10, 2021, 08:51:44 AM
If we have herd immunity by thanksgiving that would be nice actually. Im not even hopeful for that...
Because of supply, lack of interest, or kids?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on February 10, 2021, 08:58:48 AM
Because of supply, lack of interest, or kids?

Yes. And possible mutations.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 10, 2021, 09:09:56 AM
Because of supply, lack of interest, or kids?

Supply shouldn't be an issue. The rate they're sustaining is just mRNA vaccines, and both J&J and AZN expect EUA soon. Logistics shouldn't be an issue either, the non mRNA vaccines are stable and can be administered at local doctors offices, pharmacies, etc.

Demand from young people is a big concern of mine, vaccination for children, and yes, possibly mutations as well. Add to that a false sense of security that vaccinated people have that'll potentially keep spreading the virus to unvaccinated people. Less transmission is not no transmission.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 12:48:29 PM
Vaccine hesitancy is a major issue, but can be tackled with carrot and stick. Israel is starting to legislate around that. 

The mRNA vaccines are likely to be approved in kids before November

Mutations are mainly a fear mongering hypothetical, so far none of them come remotely close to evading vaccine immunology, at least not for severe illness.

The biggest concern IMHO is that vaccines aren't 100% effective at preventing transmission. That means IMHO we'll never have real herd immunity and outbreaks will continue to happen endemically

Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ver hut gazugt on February 10, 2021, 08:28:27 PM
https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-reduces-spread-risk-even-before-2nd-shot-israeli-study-suggests/
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 10, 2021, 08:57:49 PM
https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-reduces-spread-risk-even-before-2nd-shot-israeli-study-suggests/

What does it mean that they crunched data from Maccabi? Since when does the Kupat Cholim measure/have viral load data?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 09:21:31 PM
What does it mean that they crunched data from Maccabi? Since when does the Kupat Cholim measure/have viral load data?
I think it's based on Cycle threshold data on positive tests processed at the MyHeritage lab
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 10, 2021, 09:58:09 PM
I think it's based on Cycle threshold data on positive tests processed at the MyHeritage lab

Nice. I already saw this on Twitter, they had a nice chart with Ct numbers. Wondering why they don't tell you your Ct when you test positive.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 10:12:42 PM
Nice. I already saw this on Twitter, they had a nice chart with Ct numbers. Wondering why they don't tell you your Ct when you test positive.
They do in some places, the issue is the CT benchmark varies a lot between labs, and much of it is random based on the quality of the given sample. If you have the same lab and a large amount of data you can filter out those effects on a community basis even if you can't for an individual.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 03:42:13 AM
Vaccine hesitancy is a major issue, but can be tackled with carrot and stick. Israel is starting to legislate around that. 
Israeli ex Supreme Court justice says if somebody who isnt vaccinated infects others theres grounds for a civil damages lawsuit



אבנו סכינו ומשאו שנפלו מראש גגו...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yitzgar on February 11, 2021, 08:10:13 AM
Israeli ex Supreme Court justice says if somebody who isnt vaccinated infects others theres grounds for a civil damages lawsuit



אבנו סכינו ומשאו שנפלו מראש גגו...
probably more like regular aish
More likely hezeik sheaino nikar
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 02:47:32 PM
probably more like regular aish

The Chiddush of אבנו סכינו is that Aish isn't only fire but encompasses similar damages done by a combination of negligence and natural causes.

"אי בהדי דקא אזלי קא מזקי, היינו אש! מאי שנא אש דכח אחר מעורב בו וממונך ושמירתו עליך, הני נמי כח אחר מעורב בהן וממונך ושמירתו עליך!"

More likely hezeik sheaino nikar
Which is גרמי which we pasken is חייב.

But Hezek Sheaino Nikar is when the damage isn't visible, like making wine unkosher while it remains visibly identical. Covid damages are very visible.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 06:05:54 PM

(I didnt fact-check)
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 14, 2021, 03:02:46 PM

Some data on vaccines vs variants
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Jerseysteve on February 14, 2021, 08:32:33 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-to-beat-the-pandemic-by-summer/ar-BB1dEcc7?ocid=uxbndlbing
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Lurker on February 14, 2021, 08:52:40 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-to-beat-the-pandemic-by-summer/ar-BB1dEcc7?ocid=uxbndlbing

Big fan of point #2, especially if we focus on the younger adults. The example given about headlights on cars was interesting, and I'd take it one step further. I'd rather have one headlight on every car on the road (or even half the cars on the road), than working headlights on parked cars.

The biggest mistake in this article, IMO, is the first paragraph:
Quote
After nearly a year of social isolation and sacrifice in the long war on COVID-19, the end stage of the pandemic is finally in sight. Millions of Americans are being vaccinated each week, and the number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the United States has plunged by more than 40 percent in the past month.

Correlating the numbers going down from the second wave with the vaccine rollout may ultimately cause serious harm when the third wave hits.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 15, 2021, 04:46:54 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 23, 2021, 08:12:35 PM
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 23, 2021, 09:00:43 PM

J&J doesnt have data from US clinical trials like AZN has? Idk why I conflated the two and thought thats what was holding up JNJs data from getting sent to the FDA
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Ergel on February 24, 2021, 02:50:07 AM
Did J&J test on kids?
Does Israel have outstanding order with J&J?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 24, 2021, 06:57:05 AM
Did J&J test on kids?
Does Israel have outstanding order with J&J?

I think the answer to both questions is no:

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-j-j-idUSKBN27F2MP
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: Moshe123 on February 24, 2021, 05:40:22 PM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-says-covid-19-vaccine-for-south-africa-strain-is-ready-for-human-testing-11614201000?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/QMY1X0LDJs
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 24, 2021, 06:58:03 PM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-says-covid-19-vaccine-for-south-africa-strain-is-ready-for-human-testing-11614201000?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/QMY1X0LDJs

Very nice. It isnt possible to make a hybrid that includes U.K. , SA, Brazil, LA, etc. variants all all in one?
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: yzj on February 24, 2021, 06:59:59 PM
Reminds me of Whack-A-Mole
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 24, 2021, 08:11:55 PM
Very nice. It isnt possible to make a hybrid that includes U.K. , SA, Brazil, LA, etc. variants all all in one?
As long as you have to pay Moderna individually...
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 24, 2021, 08:15:31 PM
As long as you have to pay Moderna individually...

If they had an omni-variant vaccine then theyd likely be able to sell as much as they produce for a long while. I wonder if its a monetary thing like youre suggesting, or maybe there are scientific/technical development/production issues involved in bringing an omni-variant vaccine to market.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: incendia on February 24, 2021, 08:52:18 PM
The flu vaccine is 3-4 different vaccines at once and MMR is 3 in 1, so its definitely possible to multiples vaccines in one shot. I don't know if it possible or feasible to do a MRNA vaccine that way.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 24, 2021, 08:53:39 PM
The flu vaccine is 3-4 different vaccines at once and MMR is 3 in 1, so its definitely possible to multiples vaccines in one shot. I don't know if it possible or feasible to do a MRNA vaccine that way.

mRNA probably has its own pros/cons in this regard, I was specifically talking about Moderna.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 24, 2021, 10:00:21 PM
FDA says JNJ Vaccine is safe and effective, EUA expected shortly:

https://www.axios.com/johnson-fda-analysis-33162951-9b5d-41e5-8d74-3c9bfdebd87f.html

Efficacy around 66% overall and 85% against serious to critical illness. Seems to have similar efficacy against variants, I wonder what that means.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 25, 2021, 02:13:51 PM
Very nice. It isnt possible to make a hybrid that includes U.K. , SA, Brazil, LA, etc. variants all all in one?
My understanding is that Moderna submitted to the NIH both a B.1.351 booster and a multivalent
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: AsherO on February 25, 2021, 03:30:02 PM
My understanding is that Moderna submitted to the NIH both a B.1.351 booster and a multivalent

The multivalent m1273.211 is a combination of m1273 and m1273.351 in a single dose. It doesnt address other variants.
Title: Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 25, 2021, 03:59:17 PM
The multivalent m1273.211 is a combination of m1273 and m1273.351 in a single dose. It doesnt address other variants.
The others variants don't have documented immune evasion as far as I know