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DansDeals Forum => Just Shmooze => Topic started by: Dan on October 12, 2020, 12:26:08 AM

Title: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on October 12, 2020, 12:26:08 AM
Vote now :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: davidrotts63 on October 12, 2020, 12:29:03 AM
Shorts
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on October 12, 2020, 12:56:05 AM
I think that Biden will win the election, but Trump will still find technicalities to bring to court, and the court will rule against him.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on October 12, 2020, 01:06:04 AM
I haven't seen yet a single Biden sign, I saw trump boats tents and silent supporters
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on October 12, 2020, 01:12:07 AM
I haven't seen yet a single Biden sign, I saw trump boats tents and silent supporters
Reminds me of a joke:

Atheist teacher is trying to convince religious student that G-d doesn't exist.
"Does anyone see G-d?"
"No."
"So obviously, He doesn't exist."
To which the student responded:
"Does anyone see the teacher's brain? No - obviously it doesn't exist!"


Just because you take a drive around your neighborhood and don't see Biden signs doesn't mean that they don't exist.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on October 12, 2020, 01:12:50 AM
I haven't seen yet a single Biden sign, I saw trump boats tents and silent supporters
Echo chamber.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on October 12, 2020, 01:42:04 AM
Hey keep you cool, I traveled plenty on chol hamoed, I didn't see boats in my dining room
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: avrohomgelb on October 12, 2020, 01:47:10 AM
Vote now :)
Does it matter?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 12, 2020, 11:38:01 AM
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court isn't a contradiction to Biden/Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: JMHO on October 12, 2020, 11:42:20 AM
Why can't I vote multiple times like in the real election >:(
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Euclid on October 12, 2020, 11:43:05 AM
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court isn't a contradiction to Biden/Trump.
Maybe we will end up with President Biden of the United Coastal States and President Trump of the United Heartland States.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 12, 2020, 12:03:58 PM
Why can't I vote multiple times like in the real election >:(

You can, just like in the real election. Just have to use a few names, even if they're dead. Ask @CountValentine how it's done. Or @HelpMe.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 12, 2020, 12:04:39 PM
Maybe we will end up with President Biden of the United Coastal States and President Trump of the United Heartland States.

Make jokes, but I see this a possibility within the next decade.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 12, 2020, 12:50:40 PM
https://www.270towin.com

Even if Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Iowa, & Pennsylvania, he will lose.

Biden only needs to win Arizona+Wisconsin+Michigan.

Trump cannot win without both Florida & Pennsylvania, but Biden can. If Biden takes FL or PA he is all but guaranteed a win.

Trump campaign pulled out of Ohio even though the polls are 50:50 because they don't have enough money to fight beyond FL+PA.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on October 12, 2020, 01:00:10 PM
https://www.270towin.com

Even if Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Iowa, & Pennsylvania, he will lose.

Biden only needs to win Arizona+Wisconsin+Michigan.

Trump cannot win without both Florida & Pennsylvania, but Biden can. If Biden takes FL or PA he is all but guaranteed a win.

Trump campaign pulled out of Ohio even though the polls are 50:50 because they don't have enough money to fight beyond FL+PA.

What are you using as a baseline? 2016?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: stooges44 on October 12, 2020, 02:02:16 PM
http://presidential-plinko.com/
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 12, 2020, 02:07:58 PM
What are you using as a baseline? 2016?
yes. Except for Nevada I think all 2016 blue states are thoroughly blue
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on October 12, 2020, 02:10:38 PM
How about ACB on the SCOTUS, R keep the Senate, and Biden Harris becomes POTUS? Or maybe we get some 25th amendment magic?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yosel on October 12, 2020, 02:20:34 PM
Biden wins in Nov.
Trump resigns on Jan 1 2021
President Pence pardons all the Trump's Etc.
President Biden will be deemed (By Dem's) incapable soon after Feb 2021
Hence........... President Harris 

Just Thinking !!!!!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on October 12, 2020, 02:48:00 PM
Biden wins in Nov.
Trump resigns on Jan 1 2021
President Pence pardons all the Trump's Etc.
President Biden will be deemed (By Dem's) incapable soon after Feb 2021
Hence........... President Harris 

Just Thinking !!!!!!!
Why can't Trump pardon himself?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on October 12, 2020, 03:04:04 PM
yes.

Then with
Biden only needs to win Arizona+Wisconsin+Michigan.

It's tied and Trump wins in the House.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: BP16 on October 12, 2020, 03:10:51 PM
https://www.270towin.com

Even if Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Iowa, & Pennsylvania, he will lose.

Biden only needs to win Arizona+Wisconsin+Michigan.

Trump cannot win without both Florida & Pennsylvania, but Biden can. If Biden takes FL or PA he is all but guaranteed a win.

Trump campaign pulled out of Ohio even though the polls are 50:50 because they don't have enough money to fight beyond FL+PA.
He didn't pull out of those states he just cut spending, but have you thought that maybe Trumps team has him up by enough that he can focus on closer states? he WON in OH and IA by a nice amount in 2016.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yosel on October 12, 2020, 03:20:57 PM
Why can't Trump pardon himself?
would not look good for a Trump Jr. NYC mayoral run
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on October 12, 2020, 03:22:50 PM
He didn't pull out of those states he just cut spending, but have you thought that maybe Trumps team has him up by enough that he can focus on closer states? he WON in OH and IA by a nice amount in 2016.

And after all he's expecting @Dan to make a sensible rather than emotional vote this time around.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: BP16 on October 12, 2020, 04:39:33 PM
https://www.270towin.com

Even if Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Iowa, & Pennsylvania, he will lose.

Biden only needs to win Arizona+Wisconsin+Michigan.

Trump cannot win without both Florida & Pennsylvania, but Biden can. If Biden takes FL or PA he is all but guaranteed a win.

Trump campaign pulled out of Ohio even though the polls are 50:50 because they don't have enough money to fight beyond FL+PA.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
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Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 12, 2020, 05:54:06 PM
Then with
It's tied and Trump wins in the House.
Yeah unless he also wins NH, etc.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on October 12, 2020, 06:06:52 PM
Why can't Trump pardon himself?
can he pardon state crimes? im sure NYS can come up with lots of stuff....
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 12, 2020, 06:08:51 PM
Asylum in Moscow
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on October 12, 2020, 06:09:55 PM
Yeah unless he also wins NH, etc.

Nope, Hillary won NH. And it seems like it's in play for Trump. If Trump flips NH and NV he has 40 spare EC votes to play with
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 12, 2020, 06:20:44 PM
Nope, Hillary win NH. And it seems like it's in play for Trump
You're right, though Biden has an 8-11% lead in NH polls
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on October 12, 2020, 06:52:27 PM
Any reason there isn't a poll option for "I don't know"?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on October 12, 2020, 06:55:44 PM
Any reason there isn't a poll option for "I don't know"?

It's a special trap so that we have no winners selecting the only correct option.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on October 12, 2020, 06:56:16 PM
Any reason there isn't a poll option for "I don't know"?
Why would you want to display your uncertainty?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on October 12, 2020, 06:58:42 PM
Why would you want to display your uncertainty honesty, sincerity, and humility?
FTFY
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on October 12, 2020, 07:02:30 PM
FTFY
So your saying a vote on DDF shows on honestly, sincerity, and humility?  :o
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on October 12, 2020, 07:07:39 PM
So your saying a vote on DDF shows on honestly, sincerity, and humility?  :o

No. That's why the poll doesn't have an option saying "I don't know".
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 13, 2020, 07:32:50 AM
Its quite possible the election has already been decided. PA & MI are already open for voting under democrat governors, guaranteeing a high turnout which benefits Biden. He only needs to flip 1 more small swing state
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: BP16 on October 13, 2020, 11:05:05 AM
Its quite possible the election has already been decided. PA & MI are already open for voting under democrat governors, guaranteeing a high turnout which benefits Biden. He only needs to flip 1 more small swing state
How would you know it benefits Biden? most Democrats are doing voting by mail. I would say it Benefits Republicans' because they are mostly voting in person. 
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on October 13, 2020, 11:34:45 AM
Why are the poll results on DDF so dif from the MSM polls.... ::)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 13, 2020, 11:44:55 AM
Why are the poll results on DDF so dif from the MSM polls.... ::)

As opposed to all the other areas where DDF is in lockstep with MSM...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: B.D.Da'ehu on October 13, 2020, 12:05:04 PM
Why are the poll results on DDF so dif from the MSM polls.... ::)
I'd hope MSM doesn't poll mainly one (very specific) demographic :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on October 13, 2020, 12:15:15 PM
I'd hope MSM doesn't poll mainly one (very specific) demographic :)
They do. Democrats.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 13, 2020, 01:11:50 PM
How would you know it benefits Biden? most Democrats are doing voting by mail. I would say it Benefits Republicans' because they are mostly voting in person.
Higher turnout benefits Biden - he's the one that has to convince his voters he's worth the effort. Trump voters are more enthusiastic and motivated.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: BP16 on October 13, 2020, 01:27:09 PM
Higher turnout benefits Biden - he's the one that has to convince his voters he's worth the effort. Trump voters are more enthusiastic and motivated.
And has he done a good job convicting them? By telling the 56% of people who said they are better of economically under Trump then Obama shouldn't vote for him? 
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yos9694 on October 13, 2020, 01:27:56 PM
Make jokes, but I see this a possibility within the next decade.

Lincoln already addressed this and argued effectively that states do not possess the right to leave the union.

Quote
Secession is Unlawful
First Inaugural Address March 4, 1861

I hold that, in contemplation of universal law, and of the Constitution, the union of these States is perpetual....It follows....that no State, upon its own mere motion, can lawfully get out of the Union; that resolves and ordinances to that effect are legally void; and that acts of violence, within any State or States, against the authority of the United States, are insurrectionary or revolutionary, according to circumstances. I, therefore, consider that, in view of the Constitution and the laws, the Union is unbroken.

First Inaugural Address March 4, 1861

We find the proposition that, in legal contemplation, the Union is perpetual confirmed by the history of the Union itself. The Union is much older than the Constitution. It was formed, in fact, by the Articles of Association in 1774. It was matured and continued by the Declaration of Independence in 1776. It was further matured, and the faith of all the thirteen States expressly plighted and engaged that it should be perpetual, by the Articles of Confederation in 1778. And, finally, in 1787, one of the declared objects for ordaining and establishing the Constitution was "to form a more perfect Union."

Message to Congress in Special Session July 4, 1861

The States have their status in the Union, and they have no other legal status. If they break from this they can only do so against law and by revolution.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 13, 2020, 01:28:17 PM
And has he done a good job convicting them? By telling the 56% of people who said they are better of economically under Trump then Obama shouldn't vote for him?
Why are you trying to change the topic? Earlier voting = higher turnout = better for Biden. Disagree?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 13, 2020, 01:29:07 PM
And has he done a good job convicting them? By telling the 56% of people who said they are better of economically under Trump then Obama shouldn't vote for him?

Not what you meant to say, but still true.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 13, 2020, 01:31:27 PM
Lincoln already addressed this and argued effectively that states do not possess the right to leave the union.

I don't think rights will be an obstacle. The far right and the far left have enough guns, enough hate, and enough members to make the Constitution an afterthought.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on October 13, 2020, 02:03:28 PM
I don't think rights will be an obstacle. The far right and the far left have enough guns, enough hate, and enough members to make the Constitution an afterthought.
More than the Civil War?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 13, 2020, 02:07:11 PM
More than the Civil War?

Different than the Civil War. Definitely more polar, with many more anarchists and foreign interests in the mix.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 13, 2020, 02:31:17 PM
The military and Federal apparatus have infinitely more centralized power than during the civil war. A secession won't happen again, the only option is an expulsion.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 13, 2020, 02:36:12 PM
The military and Federal apparatus have infinitely more centralized power than during the civil war. A secession won't happen again, the only option is an expulsion.

And if we slash military funding and size in an extreme way? The National Guard is also better equipped than ever before.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Tomorrow on October 13, 2020, 02:41:28 PM
The military and Federal apparatus have infinitely more centralized power than during the civil war. A secession won't happen again, the only option is an expulsion.
Unless the military itself has a coup, which is not unlikely based on which party a majority of it stands with.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 13, 2020, 02:49:17 PM
Unless the military itself has a coup, which is not unlikely based on which party a majority of it stands with.
The military is way too big for a coup. It's not possible to organize anything resembling a majority of a body of 1.5m men spread out on all corners of the world. The leadership is shuffled around deliberately to prevent pockets of power. The intermediary levels of command are all loyal to the constitution, not the President, as Milley and others made abundantly clear in their letters to servicemen after the Trump church debacle.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on October 13, 2020, 06:04:41 PM
Lincoln already addressed this and argued effectively that states do not possess the right to leave the union.

Not even the Republic of Texas?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yos9694 on October 14, 2020, 08:38:34 AM
Not even the Republic of Texas?

IANAL - are you genuinely asking or is that an acknowledged exception?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on October 14, 2020, 08:44:37 AM
IANAL - are you genuinely asking or is that an acknowledged exception?

I recall hearing or reading about it once, that they had special terms upon joining the union. I never checked it out.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yos9694 on October 14, 2020, 10:21:48 AM
I recall hearing or reading about it once, that they had special terms upon joining the union. I never checked it out.

That would have been 1845, well before Lincoln's legal arguments, so if there were terms he would have been aware
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on October 14, 2020, 10:25:23 AM
Lincoln already addressed this and argued effectively that states do not possess the right to leave the union unilaterally.

FTFY

The idea that some are suggesting (and I don't think will ever happen) is that it would be a mutually agreed upon split.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 14, 2020, 11:21:23 AM
FTFY

The idea that some are suggesting (and I don't think will ever happen) is that it would be a mutually agreed upon split.

I don't think splits will be agreed upon.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yos9694 on October 14, 2020, 11:52:52 AM
FTFY

The idea that some are suggesting (and I don't think will ever happen) is that it would be a mutually agreed upon split.

Divorce lawyers are chomping at the bit
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on October 21, 2020, 08:15:16 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mushkovits on October 22, 2020, 02:03:46 AM
אינטערוויו:  "ליכא מידי דלא רמיזי באורייתא", טרעפליכע רמזים אין די תורה הק', ג' פרשת וירא, איבער די אויסגאנג פון די פרעזידענטליכע וואהלן, טראמפ אדער ביידן?
 https://www.yiddish24.com/interviews/12/27415
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 25, 2020, 10:37:04 AM
The idea that some are suggesting (and I don't think will ever happen) is that it would be a mutually agreed upon split.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/25/us/nfac-black-armed-group/index.html

I don't think this group or the many, many others like it care much for "mutually agreed upon." This country is a tinder waiting for a well-placed spark.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 26, 2020, 07:51:46 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 28, 2020, 12:37:28 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 28, 2020, 01:33:17 PM
?s=21

Landslide of epic proportions coming... Wisconsin has bad Covid, field hospitals and all
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yos9694 on October 28, 2020, 03:58:19 PM
Biden win does seem very likely right now - polls are consistent, not undulating like in 2016. And the polls improved their parameters based on the learnings from 2016, so I think they're more reliable this time around.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: BP16 on October 28, 2020, 04:00:59 PM
Biden win does seem very likely right now - polls are consistent, not undulating like in 2016. And the polls improved their parameters based on the learnings from 2016, so I think they're more reliable this time around.
They only way to know is find out how 2020 elections end up. they were wrong on the Senate races on 2018 also.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: BP16 on October 28, 2020, 04:06:26 PM
?s=21

Landslide of epic proportions coming... Wisconsin has bad Covid, field hospitals and all
Interesting that Biden is up so much but they will still be campaigning in Michigan! shouldn't they be in TX where its supposedly very close?
And if Biden is up 17 in WI why would Trump go there? 
also then explain this: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/wisconsin-results

     
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 28, 2020, 04:29:26 PM
Interesting that Biden is up so much but they will still be campaigning in Michigan! shouldn't they be in TX where its supposedly very close?
And if Biden is up 17 in WI why would Trump go there? 
also then explain this: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/wisconsin-results

   
Simple. Republicans are voting Biden. Additionally, young D voters tend to register as independent vs older conservative Trump voters w strong republican identity.

Ive been saying for months Biden should be focusing more on Texas. Their theory is to be extra certain of their most certain path (WI+MI+AZ/PA), as opposed to investing in moonshots.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on October 28, 2020, 05:10:04 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/bY4BZFfJ/dPGKr.png) (https://postimages.org/)

My prediction based on current state.

Trump has some big chance but u never know due to this crazy voting due to covid.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 28, 2020, 05:14:54 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/bY4BZFfJ/dPGKr.png) (https://postimages.org/)

My prediction based on current state.

Trump has some big chance but u never know due to this crazy voting due to covid.
Nice. But I thought WI is bluer than NC/MI/PA/AZ
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on October 28, 2020, 05:27:58 PM
Nice. But I thought WI is bluer than NC/MI/PA/AZ

WI has some serious early voting lead, leaning RED.


(https://i.postimg.cc/g26xsjxd/Capture.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

(https://i.postimg.cc/mZ5My0mY/Capture.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on October 28, 2020, 05:34:06 PM
WI has some serious early voting lead, leaning RED.
+1
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 28, 2020, 06:36:28 PM
Interesting that Biden is up so much but they will still be campaigning in Michigan! shouldn't they be in TX where its supposedly very close?
And if Biden is up 17 in WI why would Trump go there? 
also then explain this: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/wisconsin-results

   
Is Biden in Michigan for a senate seat? Im not following it closely enough, but I think the D campaign considers the presidential vote in their pocket & focusing mainly on the senate now
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Barryg on October 28, 2020, 07:19:35 PM
Bidens running for the Senate vs George Bush
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on October 28, 2020, 11:50:05 PM
I'm surprised that only 24% here think its going to Supreme Court.  With so many mail in ballots I dont see how any candidate will concede without arguing the outcome
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 28, 2020, 11:54:35 PM
I'm surprised that only 24% here think its going to Supreme Court.  With so many mail in ballots I dont see how any candidate will concede without arguing the outcome
You still need grounds for SCOTUS to intervene. How can you toss out mailed ballots? Its very unlikely for the gap to be narrow enough for contention, although it did happen in 2000.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on October 28, 2020, 11:58:15 PM
You still need grounds for SCOTUS to intervene. How can you toss out mailed ballots? Its very unlikely for the gap to be narrow enough for contention, although it did happen in 2000.
With minor adjustments 2016 couldn't have been contended? The margins were pretty slim with the popular vote...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 29, 2020, 12:03:14 AM
Is Biden in Michigan for a senate seat? Im not following it closely enough, but I think the D campaign considers the presidential vote in their pocket & focusing mainly on the senate now
Republican John James is close to unseating Democrat Gary Peters. Thats why Biden was in Michigan
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 29, 2020, 12:08:15 AM
With minor adjustments 2016 couldn't have been contended? The margins were pretty slim with the popular vote...
No, I believe you would have to change the deciding state votes by more than 1,000,000
The popular vote is irrelevant
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on October 29, 2020, 12:18:24 AM
No, I believe you would have to change the deciding state votes by more than 1,000,000
The popular vote is irrelevant
Aha. I understand. I was thinking about this but didn't research.   Basically the deciding states would have to be vastly off,  its irrelevant her popular vote lead in California example...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on October 29, 2020, 10:14:16 AM
No, I believe you would have to change the deciding state votes by more than 1,000,000
Not sure what you mean, but combined margin of victory in MI (~11k), WI (~23k), and PA (~44k) was less than 80k. That's 46 EV, enough to swing it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on October 29, 2020, 10:54:25 AM
Not sure what you mean, but combined margin of victory in MI (~11k), WI (~23k), and PA (~44k) was less than 80k. That's 46 EV, enough to swing it.

I think his point is that he thinks this time around the margin will be a lot bigger.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on October 29, 2020, 12:07:53 PM
I would like to throw all my predictions in the garbage. Trump will win by a landslide! The Yated just endorsed Trump, and this changes all the metrics of the race.

https://matzav.com/decision-time-yated-endorses-trump-for-president/
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Euclid on October 29, 2020, 12:15:10 PM
I would like to throw all my predictions in the garbage. Trump will win by a landslide! The Yated just endorsed Trump, and this changes all the metrics of the race.

https://matzav.com/decision-time-yated-endorses-trump-for-president/
The Yated endorsed him?!? Scrape me up from the floor!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 29, 2020, 12:24:54 PM
Not sure what you mean, but combined margin of victory in MI (~11k), WI (~23k), and PA (~44k) was less than 80k. That's 46 EV, enough to swing it.
I did not know that. I was wrong then.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 29, 2020, 01:29:45 PM
It's getting easier for me to see a Trump win. FL/NC/GA/TX/IA/OH all have decent polls that show Trump leading. PA/AZ/WI/MI have a relatively small lead for Biden of under 4%, and all but MI have oddball pollsters showing a small Trump win.

What's going against Trump is mainly the much larger gap in the national polls suggesting the pro Biden trend will be stronger in the swing states, the swing state polling average being way worse for Trump that the 2016 polls (PA -3.9% vs -2.1%, AZ -1.3% vs +4%) , and  the  Biden polls have him at 50%+, which is more than HRC had and less likely to be wrong.

The real unknown is the turnout numbers. If Election Day turnout underwhelms, there is no doubt Biden will win, as EV, especially in Texas, is clearly biased D. I don't think there is a consensus on how to interpret a large overall turnout if it includes ED.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on October 29, 2020, 01:59:29 PM
It's getting easier for me to see a Trump win. FL/NC/GA/TX/IA/OH all have decent polls that show Trump leading. PA/AZ/WI/MI have a relatively small lead for Biden of under 4%, and all but MI have oddball pollsters showing a small Trump win.

What's going against Trump is mainly the much larger gap in the national polls suggesting the pro Biden trend will be stronger in the swing states, the swing state polling average being way worse for Trump that the 2016 polls (PA -3.9% vs -2.1%, AZ -1.3% vs +4%) , and  the  Biden polls have him at 50%+, which is more than HRC had and less likely to be wrong.

The real unknown is the turnout numbers. If Election Day turnout underwhelms, there is no doubt Biden will win, as EV, especially in Texas, is clearly biased D. I don't think there is a consensus on how to interpret a large overall turnout if it includes ED.

I see youre starting to hedge.  :D so that when youre wrong and Trump wins you can say that you really did say that it could happen
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on October 29, 2020, 02:00:47 PM
I do believe that MI will go for Biden though. I am from Detroit and was there for Sukkos. There are so many Biden signs there
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 29, 2020, 02:06:42 PM
I do believe that MI will go for Biden though. I am from Detroit and was there for Sukkos. There are so many Biden signs there
MI is probably the bluest of the swing states. It doesn't have a single poll that shows Trump winning, although in 2016 it only had 2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html#polls

Biden does have an average 8% lead compared to 3.6% for HRC, and the polls are giving him higher than 50% which is very unlikely to be wrong

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html#polls

I see youre starting to hedge.  :D so that when youre wrong and Trump wins you can say that you really did say that it could happen
Then you can quote this post where I give it about 1% chance of happening.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on October 29, 2020, 02:07:00 PM
First this:

The Yated just endorsed Trump, and this changes all the metrics of the race.

Then this:

It's getting easier for me to see a Trump win.


Coincidence? I think not!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on October 29, 2020, 07:42:09 PM
Going around;)

I know people on this group are very pro Trump, I have also been. But after reading this I have a whole new perspective on Biden, I suggest you all take a look, there are some very good points here.
https://reasonstovotebiden.com
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on October 29, 2020, 11:28:29 PM
Don't give up yet. Get out there and vote: https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on October 29, 2020, 11:41:16 PM
JB  -180
DT +150
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 29, 2020, 11:43:53 PM
JB  -180
DT +150

That's closer than they were a week ago, no?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on October 29, 2020, 11:46:30 PM
That's closer than they were a week ago, no?
10/21
JB -165
DT +125

10/16
JB -190
DT +155
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on October 29, 2020, 11:52:18 PM
10/21
JB -165
DT +125

10/16
JB -190
DT +155
For the record the official line is Biden -200.

ETA: not trying to contradict you here. I know the lines fluctuate all the time. I just remembered that post, and that's why I asked
That's closer than they were a week ago, no?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on October 30, 2020, 12:05:15 AM
ETA: not trying to contradict you here. I know the lines fluctuate all the time. I just remembered that post, and that's why I asked
Depends on the site.
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures

-200 was from an European site.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on October 30, 2020, 12:16:09 AM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: justaregularguy on October 30, 2020, 12:39:25 AM
?s=21
yea hes a pretty smart guy spending millions on his own campaign and not doing one iota to sound appealing to the voters. 👍

Sometimes you go with your gut over data- see game 6 of the World Series...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: avromie7 on October 30, 2020, 12:44:29 AM
yea hes a pretty smart guy spending millions on his own campaign and not doing one iota to sound appealing to the voters. 👍

Sometimes you go with your gut over data- see game 6 of the World Series...
Or maybe, there's more data than just polls. I didn't go through this, but it certainly seems interesting http://www.battleground20.com/ (http://www.battleground20.com/)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on October 30, 2020, 12:56:10 AM
Or maybe, there's more data than just polls. I didn't go through this, but it certainly seems interesting http://www.battleground20.com/ (http://www.battleground20.com/)
who are these guys, I just wish they are right. What more can I say.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 03:15:34 AM
John Hopkins has US covid cases at 99k for Friday. Monday will probably break 100k & be the nail in Trumps coffin
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: stooges44 on November 01, 2020, 06:51:45 AM
There's so many trump/biden threads I wasn't sure where to put this

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/biden-bus-2020-campaign-texas-trump-supporters/index.html
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 08:36:27 AM
John Hopkins has US covid cases at 99k for Friday. Monday will probably break 100k & be the nail in Trumps coffin
Sitting bent and broken near all the other nails that popped out of Trumps coffin the last 5 years.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 01, 2020, 10:11:37 AM
?s=21
Is that the same guy who spent $500,000,000 on a campaign that went nowhere. Definitely the guy who knows "how to spend money on campaigns" and "knows whats up"  ROTFLMAO
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 01, 2020, 10:14:07 AM
?s=21
Is the only guy who bankrupted a casino? Oops that was Trump.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 12:57:17 PM
About five days ago, there were a few polls favoring Trump in PA. Since, there has been none. I think this spells bad news for him.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 01, 2020, 12:57:58 PM
Polls are trending towards Trump and so are the odds.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 01:01:07 PM
About five days ago, there were a few polls favoring Trump in PA. Since, there has been none. I think this spells bad news for him.
Only 1 poll since May, and it's a known partisan hack.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html#polls
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 01, 2020, 01:03:18 PM
About five days ago, there were a few polls favoring Trump in PA. Since, there has been none. I think this spells bad news for him.
PA odds
Biden -200
Trump +180
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 01:03:34 PM
Polls are trending towards Trump and so are the odds.
In some of the other swing states, but not in PA. The last poll that had Trump tied or ahead in PA was 10/25, which could still be a debate bump. Since, he's generally 5-6 points behind.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 01:04:43 PM
Only 1 poll since May, and it's a known partisan hack.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html#polls
Trafalger had him tied days ago. Yes, the Dems say it's a partisan hack, but he was the most accurate pollster last cycle.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 01:07:44 PM
Trafalger had him tied days ago. Yes, the Dems say it's a partisan hack, but he was the most accurate pollster last cycle.
They won't disclose their methodology so it's hard to trust them.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yossig on November 01, 2020, 01:08:28 PM
Sitting bent and broken near all the other nails that popped out of Trumps coffin the last 5 years.
LOL!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 01:10:53 PM
?s=21

?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 01:15:42 PM
Trafalger had him tied days ago. Yes, the Dems say it's a partisan hack, but he was the most accurate pollster last cycle.
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 01:15:49 PM
They won't disclose their methodology so it's hard to trust them.
says the people who disclose their methodology but got so much wrong last time.

That claim is ridiculous. You can say maybe that he doesn't have a long enough track record to prove efficacy. But to say that just because he doesn't disclose his mythology he is suspect, that doesn't make sense IMO. Facts don't care about mythology.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 01:16:31 PM
?s=21
Look at the numbers. They have accurately predicted races in both directions.

Those who got it wrong have no right to lecture those who got it right. Until Trafalgar fails, I will put weight on them. Not all the weight, but more than on those who got it wrong.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 01:19:11 PM
I just posted 2 races were they were way off. Look at the numbers
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 01, 2020, 01:20:09 PM
WOW you can get 4 1/2:1 Trump wins electoral and popular vote.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 01:21:22 PM
I just posted 2 races were they were way off. Look at the numbers
Single races don't prove much.

To be honest, I didn't do extensive research on this. But the fact that other pollsters call him a partisan hack when they got it wrong doesn't sit well with me.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 01:23:39 PM
Single races don't prove much.

To be honest, I didn't do extensive research on this. But the fact that other pollsters call him a partisan hack when they got it wrong doesn't sit well with me.
The only suggestion Traflagar is accurate is from a handful of state polls in 2016. So if single polls dont matter, hes definitely outside the consensus
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 01, 2020, 01:23:43 PM
Throwback ;D ;D

&ab_channel=GentleArt
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 01:26:06 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 01:27:23 PM
Here is a map I made. I took the liberty to give Trump all the states in which there are polls showing him ahead. (IIRC.) All he needs is 10 more points to get him to the finish line, which can come in a number of forms.

I'm not trying to show that Trump is winning. Pollsters have him down in some of the state's I've given him. I'm just trying to point out that he can win without it being against all polls. There is reason for Biden to be doing all he can.


(https://i.postimg.cc/59Pngdxv/My-map.png) (https://postimg.cc/kDbQMHRX)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 01:29:40 PM
Here is a map I made. I took the liberty to give Trump all the states in which there are polls showing him ahead. (IIRC.) All he needs is 10 more points to get him to the finish line, which can come in a number of forms.

I'm not trying to show that Trump is winning. Pollsters have him down in some of the state's I've given him. I'm just trying to point out that he can win without it being against all polls. There is reason for Biden to be doing all he can.


(https://i.postimg.cc/59Pngdxv/My-map.png) (https://postimg.cc/kDbQMHRX)
BTW, Trafalgar gave him Michigan, which would get him over the finish line.

And, he's within the margin of error in most of the other states.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 01, 2020, 01:31:25 PM
Here is a map I made. I took the liberty to give Trump all the states in which there are polls showing him ahead. (IIRC.) All he needs is 10 more points to get him to the finish line, which can come in a number of forms.
Are saying you cherry picked the polls that were in his favor?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 01:33:02 PM
Are saying you cherry picked the polls that were in his favor?
Yes, but they are basically the same few polls.

Again, my point wasn't that he's winning. My money is on Biden. But it's not outside polls for him to win. He can win without all pollsters being wrong.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 01, 2020, 01:35:25 PM
Yes, but they are basically the same few polls.

Again, my point wasn't that he's winning. My money is on Biden. But it's not outside polls for him to win. He can win without all pollsters being wrong.
Not buying that. The pollsters will never be trusted again.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 01, 2020, 01:35:42 PM
&ab_channel=MarkConklin
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 01, 2020, 01:35:48 PM
Yes, but they are basically the same few polls.
At least you are being honest about it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 01, 2020, 01:38:11 PM
Not buying that. The pollsters will never be trusted again by the kool-aid drinkers.
:)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 01:42:05 PM
At least you are being honest about it.
I'm trying to bring out a very narrow point, that a victory is possible according to some pollsters. I said it before and I'll say it again: my money is on Biden. I think he has the advantage here.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 01, 2020, 01:47:09 PM
I'm trying to bring out a very narrow point, that a victory is possible according to some pollsters. I said it before and I'll say it again: my money is on Biden. I think he has the advantage here.
Anyone who thinks only one candidate has a chance is an idiot.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 01:49:24 PM
I'm trying to bring out a very narrow point, that a victory is possible according to some pollsters. I said it before and I'll say it again: my money is on Biden. I think he has the advantage here.
I'll agree with that. Posted that somewhere too.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 01, 2020, 01:51:48 PM
I'll agree with that. Posted that somewhere too.
So does Trump have a chance or is Biden winning with 400 electorals?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 01:52:42 PM
So does Trump have a chance or is Biden winning with 400 electorals?
The two are not contradictory.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 01, 2020, 01:53:13 PM
Anyone who thinks only one candidate has a chance is an idiot.
The notion of being an idiot has not stopped people here before.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 01, 2020, 01:54:58 PM
The two are not contradictory.
Your prediction is worthless If you say Biden will win 400 electorals but Trump still has a chance.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 01:56:17 PM
Your prediction is worthless If you say Biden will win 400 electorals but Trump still has a chance.
I guess you deserve a refund then
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 01, 2020, 02:01:43 PM
I guess you deserve a refund then
You're like Nate Silver.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 01, 2020, 02:05:43 PM
It seems some don't understand that polls and odds change daily if not hourly.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 01, 2020, 02:06:18 PM
The notion of being an idiot has not stopped people here before.
No but makes them easier to spot.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 01, 2020, 02:10:52 PM
You're like Nate Silver.
Let me spell it out for you. I'm 99% confident Biden will win. That leaves 1% for an off-the-charts Trump base turnout and win. I would say I'm about 50% convinced Biden will get 380+ electoral seats. 20% he gets 410+ electoral seats. 30% he wins but tighter.

(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/Pw4nQ)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 01, 2020, 02:25:11 PM
Only 1 poll since May, and it's a known partisan hack.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html#polls

But if Trump supporters call other polls partisan hacks.....
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: good sam on November 02, 2020, 12:23:00 PM
Is this real?

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 02, 2020, 12:24:35 PM

(https://i.postimg.cc/L5ThLBQC/IMG-20201102-WA0010.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/2L1zfvDh)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 02, 2020, 12:24:54 PM

(https://i.postimg.cc/rprmQLYt/IMG-20201102-WA0009.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 12:26:10 PM
Is this real?
What do you mean by real? That is what they have.

The real odds are:
Biden -190
Trump +165
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 02, 2020, 02:13:21 PM
According the RCP average now:

Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, and NC
He is lagging with 1% or less in: GA, AZ, FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.9% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 5.1% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)

@PlatinumGuy do you already give him more then a 1% chance?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 02:21:34 PM
According the RCP average now:

Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, and NC
He is lagging with 1% or less in: GA, AZ, FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.9% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 5.1% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)

@PlatinumGuy do you already give him more then a 1% chance?
No


In 2016 the PA RCP average was 46.8-44.7 leaving 8.5% undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose. Clinton did better than her 46.8 polling average.
In 2020 the PA RCP average is 49.2-46.3 leaving 4.5%. undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.

In 2016 the WI RCP average was 46.8-40.3 leaving 12.9% undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose. Clinton was under her polling average by only 0.3%
In 2020 the WI RCP average is 50.7-44.1 leaving 5.2% undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.

In 2016 the MI RCP average was 45.4-42.0 leaving 12.6% 3rd party/undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose. Clinton did better by 1.6% than her 45.4 polling average.
In 2020 the MI RCP average is 49.8-44.7 leaving 5.5%. undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.


That's before you address the fact RCP gives equal weight to the R partisan hacks, county level data, and the fact that 2020 polls are giving Trump's base a 3% turnout advantage.




Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 02, 2020, 03:22:01 PM


That's before you address the fact RCP gives equal weight to the R partisan hacks, county level data, and the fact that 2020 polls are giving Trump's base a 3% turnout advantage.





What about D partisan hacks? Do they give equal weight to them?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 03:28:22 PM

First of all, yes. The RCP counts partisan pollsters on both side. But Im unaware of any D pollster thats a hack like Traflgar, whose data is not a poll in the traditional sense of a percentage of people who say they will vote for Trump but a secret form of analyzing the data that he wont disclose. He always errs on the Republican side and has been wrong many times when Democrats won in 2018. It all makes sense when you see him speak on Fox News, hes a clown RCP wont take off because theyre in trauma from 2016 & the republicans are clinging on so their voters dont lose hope and to stoke Trumps ego.

Could the phenomenon happen the other way? Sure. If the Republicans were on the lead, Im sure democrats would be clinging on to the less honest partisan outliers.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 02, 2020, 03:33:31 PM
But Im unaware of any D pollster thats as good as Traflgar, whose data is not a poll in the traditional sense and therefore was the only one to have 2016 correct!
FTFY
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 03:37:30 PM
It was a guess, not data. The proof is their data never errs pro Democrat and has been wrong many times in 2018
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: BP16 on November 02, 2020, 03:50:32 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/L5ThLBQC/IMG-20201102-WA0010.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/2L1zfvDh)
But now they figured it out already.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 04:00:41 PM
R's lose two court battles trying to suppress votes!!!
Count all votes!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 02, 2020, 04:39:42 PM
Let me spell it out for you. I'm 99% confident Biden will win. That leaves 1% for an off-the-charts Trump base turnout and win. I would say I'm about 50% convinced Biden will get 380+ electoral seats. 20% he gets 410+ electoral seats. 30% he wins but tighter.


why are you so convinced? you didnt learn anything from 2016?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 04:54:36 PM
why are you so convinced? you didnt learn anything from 2016?
I answered that above. The polls werent wrong in 2016.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 02, 2020, 05:14:50 PM
Why dont we all just wait a day and find out instead of hashing this out forever. Nobody will agree to anyone elses opinion
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: good sam on November 02, 2020, 05:30:03 PM
Why dont we all just wait a day and find out instead of hashing this out forever. Nobody will agree to anyone elses opinion
If only
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 02, 2020, 06:22:23 PM
According to Nate Silver's model, if you give Trump Texas and Florida, his chances of winning rise from 10 percent to 34 percent. If you add Ohio and Iowa, his prospects go up to 44 percent. Add Georgia and North Carolina, it's at 55 percent. Add Arizona, it's at 65 percent.

Just saying.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 06:25:29 PM
According to Nate Silver's model, if you give Trump Texas and Florida, his chances of winning rise from 10 percent to 34 percent. If you add Ohio and Iowa, his prospects go up to 44 percent. Add Georgia and North Carolina, it's at 55 percent. Add Arizona, it's at 65 percent.

Just saying.
What about adding CA and NY?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 02, 2020, 06:28:30 PM
What about adding CA and NY?
The map doesn't have that option (serious! There are some states that you cannot change on the projection map)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 06:29:44 PM
The map doesn't have that option (serious! There are some states that you cannot change on the projection map)
Only D's or R's to?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 02, 2020, 06:31:20 PM
Only D's or R's to?
"Candidates can't be selected if they start off with less than a 1.5% chance of winning that state."
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 02, 2020, 07:10:22 PM
What about adding CA and NY?
You don't think there's a big chance he'll win those states again?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 07:34:46 PM
You don't think there's a big chance he'll win those states again?
He was making so many "what ifs" I figured to throw them in.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 02, 2020, 08:10:37 PM
He was making so many "what ifs" I figured to throw them in.  :)
I got that, but those states are very close. NY and CA are not. Though with the amount of hate directed at Trump supporters, with people losing their jobs over mouthing support for Trump, I'm surprised he even has 30% in those states.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 08:12:01 PM
I got that, but those states are very close. NY and CA are not. Though with the amount of hate directed at Trump supporters, with people losing their jobs over mouthing support for Trump, I'm surprised he even has 30% in those states.
I get plenty of hate for being a Biden supporter. The divisiveness goes both ways but Trump is the one stoking it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 02, 2020, 08:14:41 PM
I get plenty of hate for being a Biden supporter. The divisiveness goes both ways but Trump is the one stoking it.
You feel like you are being silenced and at danger of losing your job? Or just jeered at from some idiots? I think that's it's crazy that America got to this, but I think this moral equivalency between the jeers of the rednecks and the authoritarian clampdown and silencing from the left is wrong.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 08:26:25 PM
You feel like you are being silenced and at danger of losing your job? Or just jeered at from some idiots? I think that's it's crazy that America got to this, but I think this moral equivalency between the jeers of the rednecks and the authoritarian clampdown and silencing from the left is wrong.
How about a 17 year old kid that goes to a BLM protest and ends up shooting/murdering someone. Is that jeers from a redneck?
We can go back and forth for the next year. It takes two to fight but when you have someone egging them on it doesn't take much.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 02, 2020, 08:27:59 PM
How about a 17 year old kid that goes to a BLM protest and ends up shooting/murdering someone. Is that jeers from a redneck?
We can go back and forth for the next year. It takes two to fight but when you have someone egging them on it doesn't take much.
Ok. I agree that Trump is not the greatest moral paragon. Now that that is out of the way, can we discuss the overarching silencing of the left, as opposed to individual cases of incited rednecks?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 08:30:03 PM
Ok. I agree that Trump is not the greatest moral paragon. Now that that is out of the way, can we discuss the overarching silencing of the left, as opposed to individual cases of incited rednecks?
It is not his morals that is the issue here. It is him pouring fuel on the fire. As far as the left goes do you see me disagreeing?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 02, 2020, 08:32:32 PM
It is not his morals that is the issue here. It is him pouring fuel on the fire. As far as the left goes do you see me disagreeing?
Agreed. Trump is an issue, but more importantly, he exposes the issue. We see how dangerous the left is now. Trump will be gone in a few years, but what he exposed is much more dangerous.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 02, 2020, 08:36:34 PM
According the RCP average now:

Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, and NC
He is lagging with 1% or less in: GA, AZ, FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.9% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 5.1% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)

@PlatinumGuy do you already give him more then a 1% chance?

Update:
Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, NC and GA
He is lagging with 0.5% in AZ
He is lagging with 1.7% in FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.5% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 4.8% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 08:36:58 PM
Agreed. Trump is an issue, but more importantly, he exposes the issue. We see how dangerous the left is now. Trump will be gone in a few years, but what he exposed is much more dangerous.
We had a short run there.  :)
Not sure how dangerous the left is. I am sure you would agree the left feels SCOTUS is now dangerous.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 08:37:29 PM
Update:
Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, NC and GA
He is lagging with 0.5% in AZ
He is lagging with 1.7% in FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.5% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 4.8% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)
So Trump loses?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 02, 2020, 08:40:20 PM
We had a short run there.  :)
Not sure how dangerous the left is. I am sure you would agree the left feels SCOTUS is now dangerous.
Why? Conservative justices just stick to the plain meaning of the law, and don't legislate from the bench. If the left wants laws passed, let them get the votes to do so in Congress, the way it's supposed to be done. Why should justices bother them? Unless they don't have the votes to get the laws they want, passed, and seek to circumvent the system and legislate from the bench.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 08:43:02 PM
Why? Conservative justices just stick to the plain meaning of the law, and don't legislate from the bench. If the left wants laws passed, let them get the votes to do so in Congress, the way it's supposed to be done. Why should justices bother them? Unless they don't have the votes to get the laws they want, passed, and seek to circumvent the system and legislate from the bench.
You mean like the ACA?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 02, 2020, 08:43:25 PM
So Trump loses?
If the polls are 100% accurate.

But I think its fare to say that the he has more then a 1% chance to win.... and that according to the RCP averages his chances are better now then it showed a few days ago
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 08:45:11 PM
If the polls are 100% accurate.

But I think its fare to say that the he has more then a 1% chance to win.... and that according to the RCP averages his chances are better now then it showed a few days ago
I would put his chances at 30-35%.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 02, 2020, 08:50:54 PM
You mean like the ACA?
You can't go against the constitution. That's what they're here for. You want to go against the constitution, then get an amendment ratified.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 09:05:23 PM
You can't go against the constitution. That's what they're here for. You want to go against the constitution, then get an amendment ratified.
...and that is why the left is scared of SCOTUS. They believe it will be a political vote and not a constitutional vote. Every 5-4 vote will reinforce that belief.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 02, 2020, 09:10:07 PM
I would put his chances at 30-35%.
I'll agree with you here. But 30% is about 1 out of 3. I am glad you are closer to reality than @PlatinumGuy.

@PlatinumGuy , I don't blame you, you are just repeating what the pundits are saying. I listened a lot to them in the past couple of days. Like saying that Trafalgar is not a poll because they always find Rs winning. Ye, I know nate silver and his friends are saying this. They are also saying that he was correct in 2016 just because he "guessed right". C'mon... They did a lot of polls in 2018 and were spot on! Some were within margin of error and some we spot on! And in some states they did predict that Dems will win.

Its fascinating how they won't question Quinnipiac whos guessing never worked out since 2016 and their polling is alway good for the Dems. Remember when their poll found Gillum in FL winning by 11 points? Again Trafalgars all past polls were spot on.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 02, 2020, 09:11:56 PM
I would put his chances at 30-35%.
I've told numerous people the last few days that I think Trump has a 33 percent chance of winning.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 09:12:33 PM
I'll agree with you here. But 30% is about 1 out of 3. I am glad you are closer to reality than @PlatinumGuy.
We have massive turnout and approval rating of 45 for Trump. You think this massive turnout is for Trump?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 09:13:03 PM
I've told numerous people the last few days that I think Trump has a 33 percent chance of winning.
You can't be right so mine is 20-25%.  :P
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 09:13:41 PM
Update:
Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, NC and GA
He is lagging with 0.5% in AZ
He is lagging with 1.7% in FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.5% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 4.8% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)

Now let's apply the exact same methodology to Biden

State | 2016 D RCP Average|  2016 D Final | Margin | 2020 D RCP Average | 2020 D Final Assuming a similar margin difference
Texas |      38%                  |42%              | +4%   | 46.5%                      | 50.5%
PA     |      46.2%               |47.5%            | +1.3% | 49.3%                     | 50.6%
WI    |      46.8%               |46.5%            | -0.3%  | 50.7%                      | 50.4%
MI     |      45.4%              |47%               |+2.6% | 50.2%                       | 52.8%
NV    |      45.0%               |47.9%            | +2.9% | 48.6%                      | 51.5%
AZ   |      42.3%               |44.6%             | +2.3   | 47.5%                       | 49.8%
GA     |      44.4%               |45.4%            | +1.1% | 47.6%                     | 48.7%
NC     |      45.5%               |46.2%            | +0.7% | 47.2%                     | 48.7%
FL    |      46.4%               |47.4%            | +1%    | 47.7%                     | 48.7%
OH    |      42.3%               |43.2%            | +0.9% | 46%                     | 46.9%
IA    |      41.3%               |41.7%            | +0.4%    | 45.8%                     | 46.2%




I'll agree with you here. But 30% is about 1 out of 3. I am glad you are closer to reality than @PlatinumGuy.

@PlatinumGuy C'mon... They did a lot of polls in 2018 and were spot on! Some were within margin of error and some we spot on! And in some states they did predict that Dems will win.
I believe this isn't true.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 02, 2020, 09:16:12 PM
Now to my results prediction.

Trump will win OH/IA/GA/NC/FL. Margins will probably be in this order... I am afraid of AZ for some reason and I would rate them that Trump will win it but not handily.

Now all he needs to get to 270 is PA. Which he will pull off. NH/NV/WI/MI are all gonna be extra credits if he manages to pull them off...

And as I mentioned in a different thread. The reason I feel good about PA is because the same polls which are now saying Biden will win FL by 5 points are saying so on PA. We know that FL is extremely close with Trump being the favorite. The same way these polls are wrong in FL they will be wrong in PA.

See you tomorrow.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 09:18:22 PM
Show me one poll where Traflagar is further left than the consensus? There are plenty of races the Dems won in 2018.

I don't know anything about Quinnipac. Happy to toss that one out of the equation if it helps.

I still believe Biden is more likely to win the popular vote by 15%+ than Trump is to win.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 02, 2020, 09:19:41 PM
Now let's apply the exact same methodology to Biden

State | 2016 D RCP Average|  2016 D Final | Margin | 2020 D RCP Average | 2020 D Final Assuming a similar margin difference
Texas |      38%                  |42%              | +4%   | 46.5%                      | 50.5%
PA     |      46.2%               |47.5%            | +1.3% | 49.3%                     | 50.6%
WI    |      46.8%               |46.5%            | -0.3%  | 50.7%                      | 50.4%
MI     |      45.4%              |47%               |+2.6% | 50.2%                       | 52.8%
NV    |      45.0%               |47.9%            | +2.9% | 48.6%                      | 51.5%
AZ   |      42.3%               |44.6%             | +2.3   | 47.5%                       | 49.8%
GA     |      44.4%               |45.4%            | +1.1% | 47.6%                     | 48.7%
NC     |      45.5%               |46.2%            | +0.7% | 47.2%                     | 48.7%
FL    |      46.4%               |47.4%            | +1%    | 47.7%                     | 48.7%
OH    |      42.3%               |43.2%            | +0.9% | 46%                     | 46.9%
IA    |      41.3%               |41.7%            | +0.4%    | 45.8%                     | 46.2%



I believe this isn't true.
Just wanted to be moser moda'ah that my like on your post is not because I agree with your content, but because I appreciate the effort you put into the post.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 02, 2020, 09:20:37 PM
Now let's apply the exact same methodology to Biden
So you want to prove that Biden could win? we know that.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 02, 2020, 09:21:49 PM
It can be said that the margin of error since last time should be adjusted relative to accentuation of hatred from many of these media companies and the additional loss of their credibility since four years ago.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on November 02, 2020, 09:22:01 PM
Just wanted to be moser moda'ah that my like on your post is not because I agree with your content, but because I appreciate the effort you put into the post.
Wow I wish you would be marking my daughters report card
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 02, 2020, 09:22:34 PM
moser moda'ah
translates as "make a public proclamation"
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 02, 2020, 09:24:55 PM
...and that is why the left is scared of SCOTUS. They believe it will be a political vote and not a constitutional vote. Every 5-4 vote will reinforce that belief.
Ok. I can't help with their unfounded beliefs. They are the ones who believe in legislating from the bench to further their agenda. If they're comfortable with that, why would they take issue with a justice who at least says they're not going to do that and stick to the letter of the law.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 02, 2020, 09:25:27 PM
Show me one poll where Traflagar is further left than the consensus? There are plenty of races the Dems won in 2018.

I don't know anything about Quinnipac. Happy to toss that one out of the equation if it helps.

I still believe Biden is more likely to win the popular vote by 15%+ than Trump is to win.
I am in a rush now but Testers race in Montana. Trafalgar said that he will win. Rs really wanted to win that seat. And had a shot at it. There are more which I will look up later
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 09:26:15 PM
The reason I feel good about PA is because the same polls which are now saying Biden will win FL by 5 points are saying so on PA. We know that FL is extremely close with Trump being the favorite. The same way these polls are wrong in FL they will be wrong in PA.


Rasmussen     Trump FL 47-48 PA 47-50
ABC News               FL 50-48  PA 44-51

Just wanted to be moser moda'ah that my like on your post is not because I agree with your content, but because I appreciate the effort you put into the post.
Is my quarantine showing?


Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 09:26:19 PM
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
Joe Biden      -190   
Donald Trump   +165   

This has held steady.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 09:28:45 PM
Ok. I can't help with their unfounded beliefs. They are the ones who believe in legislating from the bench to further their agenda. If they're comfortable with that, why would they take issue with a justice who at least says they're not going to do that and stick to the letter of the law.
You call their beliefs unfounded. I would love to agree with you but votes along party lines proves their point if it keeps happening.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 02, 2020, 09:29:17 PM
You call their beliefs unfounded. I would love to agree with you but votes along party lines proves their point if it keeps happening.
Ok.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 09:35:39 PM
I am in a rush now but Testers race in Montana. Trafalgar said that he will win. Rs really wanted to win that seat. And had a shot at it. There are more which I will look up later
There wasn't a single pollster than called the seat republican
Trafalgar gave D/Tester the smallest lead of any poll (1%), and was wrong when Tester won by 3%.

He always errs pro Republican and not once errs pro Democrat. It's because he's simply guessing a little bit to the right. He's a complete clown.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mt/montana_senate_rosendale_vs_tester-6306.html

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 02, 2020, 09:40:16 PM
Trafalgar's a complete clown.
He does look like a clown a little.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 09:41:34 PM
He does look like a clown a little.
Yeah, that's part of what made me say it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 02, 2020, 10:13:32 PM
Your prediction is worthless If you say Biden will win 400 electorals but Trump still has a chance.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 10:22:28 PM
Nate Silvers models are manipulated to give Trump an 11% chance. I posted the data calling him out on it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 02, 2020, 10:26:30 PM
Nate Silvers models are manipulated to give Trump an 11% chance. I posted the data calling him out on it.
You are going to be the go to guy!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 10:29:51 PM
You are going to be the go to guy!
Lol, thanks.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 10:51:50 PM
?s=21

RCP is also titling it pro Trump to cover their @$$ on the off chance turnout renders all the polls are wrong.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 02, 2020, 10:57:38 PM
Mickey Mouse.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 02, 2020, 11:04:57 PM
Question for @PlatinumGuy - theoretically, if we learn shortly after polls close on the east coast that Trump won Florida, would you adjust the odds you gave him for winning the election, or would you still assert that he has almost no chance of winning?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 02, 2020, 11:05:09 PM
There wasn't a single pollster than called the seat republican
Trafalgar gave D/Tester the smallest lead of any poll (1%), and was wrong when Tester won by 3%.

He always errs pro Republican and not once errs pro Democrat. It's because he's simply guessing a little bit to the right. He's a complete clown.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mt/montana_senate_rosendale_vs_tester-6306.html
So he was within the margin of error. That's still considered accurate in the polling world. You know that... Others were tester + 9....
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yossig on November 02, 2020, 11:07:47 PM
So, what if Trump does win??

@PlatinumGuy I wonder how you deal with stress...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 02, 2020, 11:12:15 PM
Question for @PlatinumGuy - theoretically, if we learn shortly after polls close on the east coast that Trump won Florida, would you adjust the odds you gave him for winning the election, or would you still assert that he has almost no chance of winning?
We'll probably know NC before we know FL. I would go up to 10-20% I guess if he does win Florida. The turning point is definitely PA, then I'd give him 70%. If he loses NC he's probably toast even if he wins FL & PA though.


So he was within the margin of error. That's still considered accurate in the polling world. You know that... Others were tester + 9....
I didn't say he's always wrong, I said he's always just +3-5 Republican, and he's always wrong when the final results are left of the consensus.

So, what if Trump does win??

@PlatinumGuy I wonder how you deal with stress...
This is not at all what stresses me out, but walks/beach/wine/cigars
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 02, 2020, 11:27:29 PM


Rasmussen     Trump FL 47-48 PA 47-50
ABC News               FL 50-48  PA 44-51
Is my quarantine showing?
Quinnipiac, Marist, and Monmouth, all A+ pollsters have bidens lead in FL and PA almost identical. Within a point or two. And there are more pollsters with the same idea but I'm going even with the so called A+ pollsters.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 02, 2020, 11:41:26 PM
According to Nate Silver's model, if you give Trump Texas and Florida, his chances of winning rise from 10 percent to 34 percent. If you add Ohio and Iowa, his prospects go up to 44 percent. Add Georgia and North Carolina, it's at 55 percent. Add Arizona, it's at 65 percent.

Just saying.
And how about if you add Pennsylvania?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 02, 2020, 11:43:06 PM
And how about if you add Pennsylvania?
Try it yourself: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 12:10:43 AM
100% sweep for Biden in New Hampshire voting. Not looking good for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 12:16:41 AM
100% sweep for Biden in New Hampshire voting. Not looking good for Trump.
And none less than a registered Republican.

?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 12:23:55 AM
https://mobile.twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1323355837126029314
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 12:26:12 AM
https://mobile.twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1323355837126029314
?s=20


Very hard to believe that people who didn't vote in 2016 are standing out in the cold now. (A possible explanation is that they're not from PA but from deep blue states)

21% non-republican makes sense.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: good sam on November 03, 2020, 12:29:22 AM
100% sweep for Biden in New Hampshire voting. Not looking good for Trump.
What does this mean?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: justaregularguy on November 03, 2020, 12:30:38 AM
What does this mean?
it means 1 person voted and he voted for biden. so so far its 100% for biden. its a joke.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 12:31:05 AM
What does this mean?
The first voter in NH Election Day says he voted for Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 12:31:07 AM
?s=20


Very hard to believe that people who didn't vote in 2016 are standing out in the cold now. (A possible explanation is that they're not from PA but from deep blue states)

21% non-republican makes sense.
read all her posts? she put up stats like these in a few swing states.
If all is true, does Trump stand a chance?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: justaregularguy on November 03, 2020, 12:34:01 AM
read all her posts? she put up stats like these in a few swing states.
If all is true, does Trump stand a chance?
when you say does he have a chance you make it sound like the stats make it harder for him to win so not sure what ur asking.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 12:35:29 AM
when you say does he have a chance you make it sound like the stats make it harder for him to win so not sure what ur asking.
Before posting this, he didn't stand a chance, question should be, does he stand a chance now?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 12:36:12 AM
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We are expecting HUGE turnout on Election Day, and data from <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@realDonaldTrump</a>s rally in Macomb backs it up!<br><br> 11,194 signups<br><br> 48.2% NOT Republican<br><br> 32.2% didnt vote in 2016<br><br> 74.1% have NOT voted yet in 2020<br><br>Thank you, MICHIGAN!</p> Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) <a href="?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 1, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: good sam on November 03, 2020, 12:37:56 AM
Lol she is thanking the states for their statistics
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 12:38:47 AM
read all her posts? she put up stats like these in a few swing states.
If all is true, does Trump stand a chance?
Never heard of her. But it is proving there's a class of voter who didn't vote in 2016 and is enthusiastic about voting Trump on election day 2020. That's great news for Trump but the question remains if it's a few thousand outliers or a trend - he needs a few million of them to counter D turnout. 
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 12:40:47 AM
Another 43k here.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1322726029111234560
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 12:47:26 AM
Another 43k here.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1322726029111234560
Yeah, these number will never add up - at most you'll hit a million when he needs 10. The question is how indicative it is of the broader trend. Who are these 20-30% of people who are enthusiastic enough to show up at a rally but didn't vote in 2016? My guess is that they are mostly new young voters, people who weren't able to vote in 2016 for legal reasons, and people who won't vote in 2020 either (living out of state?). Those won't help him enough. If it really is a newly mobilized base, then maybe he'll buck the polls and win, but I doubt it - there is still massive D turnout to counteract. If her stats are true, I would move my personal conviction level from 1% to 5%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 12:51:29 AM
Yeah, these number will never add up - at most you'll hit a million when he needs 10. The question is how indicative it is of the broader trend. Who are these 20-30% of people who are enthusiastic enough to show up at a rally but didn't vote in 2016? My guess is that they are mostly new young voters, people who weren't able to vote in 2016 for legal reasons, and people who won't vote in 2020 either (living out of state?). Those won't help him enough. If it really is a newly mobilized base, then maybe he'll buck the polls and win, but I doubt it - there is still massive D turnout to counteract. If her stats are true, I would move my personal conviction level from 1% to 5%
Looks like theses rallies were not just rallies but a major signup drive, and to see where he stands.
getting 10, 20, and as much as 40k signups per rally is a pretty good tactic.
Time will tell.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 12:55:59 AM
Looks like theses rallies were not just rallies but a major signup drive, and to see where he stands.
getting 10, 20, and as much as 40k signups per rally is a pretty good tactic.
Time will tell.
He did thank you rallies even after he won in 2016, so I would think the primary motive is definitely for himself. Getting the signups is smart, the question is if they're doing a good job of mobilizing them. You have 40k that wanna come to a rally, can you get them to call friends? The democrats seem to have a lead with the gruntwork, especially in TX where Beto is running it.

The bigger question is if the rallies are doing him more harm with covid related voter opinion than any benefit.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 01:01:04 AM
Btw - Im sure the campaign has more data. They should have a far better understanding of who these new voters are. The question is if theyre not releasing it bc its not good or bc they dont want the DNC to target the same demo
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 01:10:45 AM
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1323330666763743232.html

 Pres. Trump will head to Kenosha later today.
 
 In Wisconsin, weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +12.3 - today its D +5.9.
 
 Going into Election Day in 16, the gap was D +9.6.
 
 Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 100k net votes.   Nevada?
 
 Democrats jumped out to a D +27.3 advantage during AB only voting. Today its D +5.
 
 Flashback: going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +7.9.
 
 President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 50k net votes.   Like 2016, Pres. Trump will end the day in Michigan.
 
 Congrats: Democrats have banked their high propensity voters. We have nearly 2 million voters left.
 
 Pres. Trumps E Day margin needs to be 350k - we project an Election Day votes cast margin of 400k+ for Pres. Trump.   Look, its pretty simple - if the voters that we KNOW are still out there for Election Day show up ON Election Day, President Trump has four more years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 01:23:33 AM
The main difference is undecided. The Ds were up then with 15% undecided. Now its under 5%. So the D lead is way more significant even when the number is smaller.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 07:00:55 AM
What does this mean?
Traditional Midnight New Hampshire Votes See Biden Sweep Dixville Notch 5-0
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 03, 2020, 07:08:27 AM
Traditional Midnight New Hampshire Votes See Biden Sweep Dixville Notch 5-0
Voter suppression! Can you imagine if one of those 5 wished to Vote for Trump? They would not be able to, because with 5 voters, that is hardly a secret ballet.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 07:20:41 AM
Voter suppression! Can you imagine if one of those 5 wished to Vote for Trump? They would not be able to, because with 5 voters, that is hardly a secret ballet.
They went 4-1 R for senate so that shows even the R's are running away from Trump.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 10:33:52 AM
They went 4-1 R for senate so that shows even the R's are running away from Trump.  :)

There was some other town that went 16-5 for trump....  "In Millsfield, 12 miles (20 kilometers) to the south, President Donald Trump won 16 votes to Bidens five."
https://time.com/5906766/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-election-2020/

Anywase, my thoughts for now, PA is toss up due to crazy amount of fraud. WI and MI, didn't look into it to much but I thing Trump has some good chances.

(https://i.postimg.cc/Kzw55XMx/Capture.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:36:15 AM
PA is toss up due to crazy amount of fraud.
Let the kool-aid flow.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:21:02 AM
Kamala Harris is on the phone!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 11:47:33 AM
There is some political chatter ongoing that a President Biden could appoint Senator Gillibrand of NY to a cabinet post, allowing NY Governor Cuomo to put AOC in the Senate, a gift to Senator Schumer and to himself, and a way to elevate a star they're all afraid of.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 12:00:18 PM
There is some political chatter ongoing that a President Biden could appoint Senator Gillibrand of NY to a cabinet post, allowing NY Governor Cuomo to put AOC in the Senate, a gift to Senator Schumer and to himself, and a way to elevate a star they're all afraid of.
...but that contradicts that Biden will not put any sitting senator in a cabinet post.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 03, 2020, 12:00:58 PM
There is some political chatter ongoing that a President Biden could appoint Senator Gillibrand of NY to a cabinet post, allowing NY Governor Cuomo to put AOC in the Senate, a gift to Senator Schumer and to himself, and a way to elevate a star they're all afraid of.
Hashem Yiracheim
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: biscotti on November 03, 2020, 12:08:41 PM
PA is toss up due to crazy amount of fraud.

What fraud specifically?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 12:10:22 PM
What fraud specifically?
The Kool-Aid type.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 12:19:08 PM
WH party dropped from 400 to 250.
What if you have a party and no one shows up?  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 12:40:36 PM
What fraud specifically?

PA and philly is particular.

There has been multiple videos of HUGE biden signes at the door of polling stations...., poll watchers not allowed to enter, ETC.

In general PA is known for fraud, the AG of PA was indicted for fraud in the past. I personally know of some high up sketchy story...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Kane
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 12:42:51 PM
As much as ppl dont like this..

This is true!

While biden can still win in general, Ill be surprised if he takes FL.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 12:45:12 PM
As much as ppl dont like this..
This is true!
While biden can still win in general, Ill be surprised if he takes FL.
Any figures to back it up?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 03, 2020, 12:46:13 PM
...but that contradicts that Biden will not put any sitting senator in a cabinet post.

He said that?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 12:48:08 PM
Any figures to back it up?

Biden not campaigning against communism and taking Kamala is most likely a death trap in FL.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 12:48:40 PM
PA and philly is particular.

There has been multiple videos of HUGE biden signes at the door of polling stations...., poll watchers not allowed to enter, ETC.

In general PA is known for fraud, the AG of PA was indicted for fraud in the past. I personally know of some high up sketchy story...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Kane
Sings are not voter fraud.
Kane was indicted for voter fraud?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 12:49:46 PM
He said that?
Context matters "There is some political chatter ongoing".
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 12:51:07 PM

Can you translate the tweets for me?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 12:52:16 PM
As much as ppl dont like this..

This is true!

While biden can still win in general, Ill be surprised if he takes FL.
Ye like I posted yesterday. Data coming out from FL is pointing to a Trump victory. If he manages to replicate it in PA / AZ then it's game over for Biden.

BTW, I keep on seeing all these data from local Florida guys posting on Twitter. Does anyone have the link where I can see the live data coming in? (showing turnouts by party registration)

I've been searching for the past hour and can't find it!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 12:53:39 PM
BTW, I keep on seeing all these data from local Florida guys posting on Twitter. Does anyone have the link where I can see the live data coming in? (showing turnouts by party registration)
Thats what we need, not these useless tweets.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 12:54:32 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 12:56:39 PM
Can you translate the tweets for me?
In short the Republican returns are up by about 100k.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 01:03:32 PM
Sings are not voter fraud.
Kane was indicted for voter fraud?

"Election signs are not allowed in the same building where the election ballot is taking place"
https://www.signsofliberty.com/blog/political-sign-regulations-by-state

My point without twisting, PA has had major fraud in the past (not necessarily related to elections) and there is no reason to believe the fraud stops at elections.

Just like paterson NJ, major fraud all around (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joey_Torres) and then elections are cooked (https://www.nj.com/passaic-county/2020/08/nj-city-gets-an-election-do-over-after-voter-fraud-issues.html).

It doesn't take a genius to figure this...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 01:05:49 PM
Thats what we need, not these useless tweets.

Incase you needed something more reliable..
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 01:06:37 PM
"Election signs are not allowed in the same building where the election ballot is taking place"
https://www.signsofliberty.com/blog/political-sign-regulations-by-state

My point without twisting, PA has had major fraud in the past (not necessarily related to elections) and there is no reason to believe the fraud stops at elections.

Just like paterson NJ, major fraud all around (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joey_Torres) and then elections are cooked (https://www.nj.com/passaic-county/2020/08/nj-city-gets-an-election-do-over-after-voter-fraud-issues.html).

It doesn't take a genius to figure this...
If you are going to make fraud claims you have to back it up.
Chicago has reputation of everyone voting twice (or more) buy no one backs it up.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 01:07:04 PM
Incase you needed something more reliable..
Trump will win FL.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 01:07:17 PM
Thats what we need, not these useless tweets.
Well I'm following liberal guys like https://mobile.twitter.com/umichvoter99

He wouldn't put up bad numbers for dems without verification. In Florida the SOS is reporting live registration turnout numbers. I just can't find the link
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 01:07:28 PM
Incase you needed something more reliable..
Yeah but Biden gets 60%+++ of the non registered.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 01:07:49 PM
Trump will win FL.
Is there a state he wont win?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 01:08:18 PM
Is there a state he wont win?
Many.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 01:08:26 PM
Incase you needed something more reliable..
Thanks and don't assume because you have more people of one party affiliation that they are voting for that party.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 01:09:05 PM
?s=21
Ye I've been checking the Sumter numbers every day for the past week because of this. So far it looks like that with all the talk about seniors flipping on Trump he will still do extremely well there. Based on R turnout numbers
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 03, 2020, 01:09:45 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 01:11:28 PM
Based on R turnout numbers
You are putting to much on these turnout numbers. A president with 45% approval does not want high turnout no matter what they say.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: gozalim on November 03, 2020, 01:18:54 PM
If you are going to make fraud claims you have to back it up.
Chicago has reputation of everyone voting twice (or more) buy no one backs it up...
...and lives to tell about it
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Willie on November 03, 2020, 01:22:32 PM
You are putting to much on these turnout numbers. A president with 45% approval does not want high turnout no matter what they say.
Interesting how you dont quote rasmussen or trafalgar groups approval ratings....
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 01:23:43 PM
Interesting how you dont quote rasmussen or trafalgar groups approval ratings....
What are theirs?
ETA: Rasmussen 49 so still under water.
FOX has him at 46.
Would it be fair to say he is underwater?

This is how you can hate one candidate and still be objective. Some of you should try it, you might like it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 01:25:09 PM
I found a link! Now gotta figure out where they are scrapping info from. But the numbers are terrible for the dems. The Republicans had a 150k turnout advantage in 2016 by the end of the day. It's at 130k now. And growing.

Broward County which is solidly dem has almost the same R turnout today as Dem.

https://projectsunburst.com/index.php?county=Broward
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 03, 2020, 01:42:05 PM
Started a poll: https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=120946.msg2348863#msg2348863
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 02:14:04 PM
?s=20

In the 2016 Florida Elections, there were 3,651,552 votes from Registered Democrats, and 3,700,284 votes from Registered Republicans, and 2,240,164 from NPA/3rd party 

Trump got 4,617,886 vs 4,504,975 for Clinton


https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2017/01/17/exclusive-first-cut-at-2016-turnout-rates-in-florida-by-party-and-raceethnicity/


Most notable IMO is that R turnout is growing at a higher pace than D turnout. This is great for Trump but inconclusive.

If there is no data from Miami yet that alone can probably change the dynamics.

?s=20

?s=20
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yossig on November 03, 2020, 02:20:49 PM

(https://i.postimg.cc/MG00HNfM/D35-E9277-C05-B-4100-A2-AA-14832378-C258.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/R3FJbPR4)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 02:23:31 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/MG00HNfM/D35-E9277-C05-B-4100-A2-AA-14832378-C258.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/R3FJbPR4)
Please move the pointer down one.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 02:27:40 PM
?s=20

In the 2016 Florida Elections, there were 3,651,552 votes from Registered Democrats, and 3,700,284 votes from Registered Republicans, and 2,240,164 from NPA/3rd party 

Trump got 4,617,886 vs 4,504,975 for Clinton


https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2017/01/17/exclusive-first-cut-at-2016-turnout-rates-in-florida-by-party-and-raceethnicity/


Most notable IMO is that R turnout is growing at a higher pace than D turnout. This is great for Trump but inconclusive.

If there is no data from Miami yet that alone can probably change the dynamics.

?s=20

?s=20
So with all this are you at least giving Trump a 5% chance of winning rather than 1%?.....

Regarding Miami Dade. When the numbers come in it will likely help the Republicans. Broward which is the strongest D  place had dems only doing a little better than R today, קל וחומר Miami which has been trending bad for Biden this season will be bad on ED
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 02:29:53 PM
Those are some decent odds for Trump.

Nominee to Win the Popular Vote
Joe Biden      -900   
Donald Trump   +600   
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 02:31:06 PM
So with all this are you at least giving Trump a 5% chance of winning rather than 1%?.....

Regarding Miami Dade. When the numbers come in it will likely help the Republicans. Broward which is the strongest D  place had dems only doing a little better than R today, קל וחומר Miami which has been trending bad for Biden this season will be bad on ED
You're right, Miami came in with a very small lead for Biden

?s=20

It doesn't really change my perception... Even if all R vote Trump and all D votes Biden, he's likely to win at least 60% of NPA/3rd party. Not to mention more republicans voting Biden (10% in a poll I posted elsewhere) than Democrats voting Trump.

We knew all along Florida will be close.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 02:34:52 PM
Those are some decent odds for Trump.

Nominee to Win the Popular Vote
Joe Biden      -900   
Donald Trump   +600   

Oh wow. I still find it hard to believe trump will win the popular vote, though with turnout high (I think, no data) in blue states, even if he wins the popular vote he could still lose the electoral vote.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 02:35:09 PM
We knew all along Florida will be close.
You still giving FL to Biden? Your reputation is on the line!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 02:37:19 PM
Oh wow. I still find it hard to believe trump will win the popular vote, though with turnout high (I think, no data) in blue states, even if he wins the popular vote he could still lose the electoral vote.
I like to believe the polls because they favor Biden. In all honest if there was a chance for the polls to be in a different world this election would be it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 02:43:59 PM
You still giving FL to Biden? Your reputation is on the line!!!
Yes. The Republican turnout is maybe 1-2% advantage. It will be decided by the 20%+ independents. I trust the polls for that sub group. My only hesitation is by enthusiasm appearing to be higher amongst republicans.
Oh wow. I still find it hard to believe trump will win the popular vote, though with turnout high (I think, no data) in blue states, even if he wins the popular vote he could still lose the electoral vote.
The likelihood of Trump winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college is less than Biden winning the popular vote by 25%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 02:46:34 PM
The likelihood of Trump winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college is less than Biden winning the popular vote by 25%

I havent seen the over/under on Biden >25%, but my guess is the gamblers see it as less likely than you do.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 02:47:45 PM
I havent seen the over/under on Biden >25%, but my guess is the gamblers see it as less likely than you do.
I'd be surprised if you find a single gambler who believes Trump will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 02:49:31 PM
You're right, Miami came in with a very small lead for Biden

?s=20

It doesn't really change my perception... Even if all R vote Trump and all D votes Biden, he's likely to win at least 60% of NPA/3rd party. Not to mention more republicans voting Biden (10% in a poll I posted elsewhere) than Democrats voting Trump.

We knew all along Florida will be close.
Check out Nate Silver on Twitter. He said all along that you can't interpretate party data and you need to wait for actual results is now saying he is starting to fall in to this rabbit hole.... He also is saying that the polls regarding NPAs are all over the place and its not a sure thing at all that Biden will carry them
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 02:53:19 PM
Check out Nate Silver on Twitter. He said all along that you can't interpretate party data and you need to wait for actual results is now saying he is starting to fall in to this rabbit hole.... He also is saying that the polls regarding NPAs are all over the place and its not a sure thing at all that Biden will carry them
Nate Silver is biased towards Trump because he's afraid of repeating his 2016 mistake. I've posted that elsewhere. I take anything he says with a grain of salt. My personal perception is to the left of the consensus.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: BP16 on November 03, 2020, 03:02:50 PM
You're right, Miami came in with a very small lead for Biden

?s=20

It doesn't really change my perception... Even if all R vote Trump and all D votes Biden, he's likely to win at least 60% of NPA/3rd party. Not to mention more republicans voting Biden (10% in a poll I posted elsewhere) than Democrats voting Trump.

We knew all along Florida will be close.
Republicans pollsters dont believe that, and based on Trumps rallies in the past few weeks lots of registered D voters showed up to support Trump. so you will have to stay patient like everybody else and wait till the polls close. 
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 03:04:47 PM
?s=21

Republicans pollsters dont believe that, and based on Trumps rallies in the past few weeks lots of registered D voters showed up to support Trump. so you will have to stay patient like everybody else and wait till the polls close. 
Show me data showing any registered D's showing up at Trump rallies?

I've actually thought it was notable the RNC lady was citing non-Republicans but didn't mention any registered D, suggesting there aren't many
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: BP16 on November 03, 2020, 03:07:59 PM
?s=21
Show me data showing any registered D's showing up at Trump rallies?

I've actually thought it was notable the RNC lady was citing non-Republicans but didn't mention any registered D, suggesting there aren't many
What Data a CNN poll from the Trump rallies? its one of the people by the Trump rallies that did the asking you can believe it or not.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: avromie7 on November 03, 2020, 03:08:45 PM
?s=21
The overall R margin is still increasing.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 03, 2020, 03:08:52 PM
The whole "D+/R+" spin is ridiculous and meaningless, especially when between 20-40% of your voters are independent.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 03:09:17 PM
The whole "D+/R+" spin is ridiculous and meaningless, especially when between 20-40% of your voters are independent.
I agree.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 03:11:14 PM
What Data a CNN poll from the Trump rallies? its one of the people by the Trump rallies that did the asking you can believe it or not.
What?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 03:14:37 PM
Nate Silver is biased towards Trump because he's afraid of repeating his 2016 mistake.

What 2016 mistake? He went against consensus and gave Trump a real chance to win in 2016, repeatedly stating that Trump had a real path to victory in the way it turned out.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 03:15:35 PM
What 2016 mistake? He went against consensus and gave Trump a real chance to win in 2016, repeatedly stating that Trump had a real path to victory in the way it turned out.
I mean the perception of a mistake by not calling it for Trump. The polls were actually right as posted elsewhere.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 03, 2020, 03:22:55 PM
?s=21

One thing that does seem clear in the Election Day numbers is that the GOP vote came out early but the vote is becoming less Republican (and more indie) over the course of the day.
Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Twitter

Is it because the Trump voters actually work for a living and vote before and after work?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 03:23:38 PM
?s=21

While we're busy trying to interpret data in Florida, PA & TX are underperforming...
One thing that does seem clear in the Election Day numbers is that the GOP vote came out early but the vote is becoming less Republican (and more indie) over the course of the day.
Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) Twitter

Is it because the Trump voters actually work for a living and vote before and after work?
Yeah because College Educated voters who vote Biden by a huge margin don't have a job.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 03:23:45 PM
Is it because the Trump voters actually work for a living and vote before and after work?

I wondered the same thing.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 03:24:57 PM
Yeah because College Educated voters who vote Biden by a huge margin don't have a job.

Or they voted early?

ETA: its also possible theyre likelier to have jobs that either encourage them to leave work to vote, or jobs that are flexible so that they can leave to vote at whim.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 03:26:49 PM
?s=21

The famous split between those that work and those that don't.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 03:29:43 PM
The whole "D+/R+" spin is ridiculous and meaningless, especially when between 20-40% of your voters are independent.
Obviously no one knows how Ind will vote. But comparing the data and final outcome to 2016/2018 does not look great for dems.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 03:30:08 PM
The famous split between those that work and those that don't.
I have no patience to look for the data but pretty confident if you find breakdown of voters with high income it will be pro D by a large margin. The same for unusually low income will make the average D income low.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: avromie7 on November 03, 2020, 03:32:23 PM
I have no patience to look for the data but pretty confident if you find breakdown of voters with high income it will be pro D by a large margin. The same for unusually low income will make the average D income low.
Yes, welfare queens will overwhelmingly vote D. What is your point?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 03, 2020, 03:38:01 PM
Obviously no one knows how Ind will vote. But comparing the data and final outcome to 2016/2018 does not look great for dems.

If the registration stayed the same, there would be something to compare. Between 2008 and 2020, here's how registration has changed:

Dem
2008: 43.62%
2020: 39.66%

Rep
2008: 30.72%
2020: 28.87%

Ind
2008: 23.98%
2020: 29.09%

We're not talking an apples-to-apples comparison, especially when Ind now includes a much larger percentage of people who have previously voted Dem. It's useless spin.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: stv17 on November 03, 2020, 03:38:50 PM
Important thing to remember....A lot of these twitter reports of low turnout/disappointing numbers etc. are not necessarily true, this is a tool that is used by both parties to encourage their base to come out and vote.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 03, 2020, 03:40:08 PM
Yes, welfare queens will overwhelmingly vote D. What is your point?

He said that
The same for unusually low income will make the average D income low.

His point is that R's are in the middle, but saying that D's don't work when D voters include a very significant chuck of above-average earners is incorrect.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 03:45:40 PM
Does anyone have a link for Maricopa County?

Would love to see data coming out how party registration is voting.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 04:23:55 PM
Here ya go AZ.

Anyone who is opening this can report results from Maricopa?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 04:24:33 PM
Ye like I posted yesterday. Data coming out from FL is pointing to a Trump victory. If he manages to replicate it in PA / AZ then it's game over for Biden.

BTW, I keep on seeing all these data from local Florida guys posting on Twitter. Does anyone have the link where I can see the live data coming in? (showing turnouts by party registration)

I've been searching for the past hour and can't find it!
Thats what we need, not these useless tweets.

Its possible county by county and ppl put it together,

Try this,
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1wg9gjwErFjhMb-IlbnuA5c50rPKtqYXaUGm-iTJMr-E/htmlview?pru=AAABdbQJlx4*b61wNWa_YKtYj11xLHbuWQ
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 04:28:54 PM
?s=21

A county HRC won by 20%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 03, 2020, 04:32:53 PM
To answer the thread title question, I think the country is actually winning. Setting records for voter turnout shows unprecedented engagement on the part of the average American. You may not like who they are listening to or the conclusions they are drawing, but engagement is a huge first step. You can't convince someone of your position if they aren't participating in the conversation.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 04:35:50 PM
Anyone see the video from Trump today? Does he look down and nervous? (which might indicate him getting bad reports from the fields) or just tired from doing 5 rallies a day?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWXvIlivqY
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 03, 2020, 04:38:29 PM
Anyone see the video from Trump today? Does he look down and nervous? (which might indicate him getting bad reports from the fields) or just tired from doing 5 rallies a day?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWXvIlivqY

Body language is definitely not optimistic.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: BP16 on November 03, 2020, 04:40:22 PM
Anyone see the video from Trump today? Does he look down and nervous? (which might indicate him getting bad reports from the fields) or just tired from doing 5 rallies a day?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWXvIlivqY
I would say both, but I dont think from bad reports more from exhausted from all these rallies in the last week.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 04:49:10 PM
Here ya go AZ.

Anyone who is opening this can report results from Maricopa?
Sorry, forgot to post the link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1G6HVI57N1QOFcYGeWj42odw5PcRkcqFwNlqp7sIe1k0/htmlview#gid=0
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 03, 2020, 04:51:16 PM
Anyone see the video from Trump today? Does he look down and nervous? (which might indicate him getting bad reports from the fields) or just tired from doing 5 rallies a day?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWXvIlivqY

This from the person telling us not to read anything into the videos of Biden's many "senior moments"
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 03, 2020, 04:53:49 PM
Anyone see the video from Trump today? Does he look down and nervous? (which might indicate him getting bad reports from the fields) or just tired from doing 5 rallies a day?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWXvIlivqY
I say both.   And I hope to be able to do 5 rallies in one day at that age
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 05:04:34 PM
?s=21



You can probably learn a lot from FL data, but youd need to study it more comprehensively  - D VS R compared to how their counties & demographics voted in 2016. A 90% R turnout would mean a lot in a county where R votes correlated to registered republicans. Nobody is wasting their time on this because its only a few hours advantage



To answer the thread title question, I think the country is actually winning. Setting records for voter turnout shows unprecedented engagement on the part of the average American. You may not like who they are listening to or the conclusions they are drawing, but engagement is a huge first step. You can't convince someone of your position if they aren't participating in the conversation.
The problem is its coming from increased divisiveness with each side convinced the other side would be destructive

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 03, 2020, 05:15:29 PM
Yeah because College Educated voters who vote Biden by a huge margin don't have a job.

They are MUCH more likely to be working from home due to COVID.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: avromie7 on November 03, 2020, 05:20:03 PM
?s=21
This just means a little better turnout than 2016 for Ds in a heavily D county.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 05:52:55 PM
Sorry, forgot to post the link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1G6HVI57N1QOFcYGeWj42odw5PcRkcqFwNlqp7sIe1k0/htmlview#gid=0
It seems that the republicans have a smaller advantage than 2018. And in 2018 they lost. Looks bad for the GOP.

Am I missing something?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 05:55:35 PM
?s=21


My personal conviction now is Trump has a 40% chance in Florida. Not because the 200k votes are tipping the balance, but because it's proof Republican turnout is as high as democrat, and Trump has a lot of new voters. It's going to be decided more on the opinions of the independents than the turnout of either base.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yossig on November 03, 2020, 06:02:08 PM
My personal conviction now is Trump has a 40% chance in Florida. Not because the 200k votes are tipping the balance, but because it's proof Republican turnout is as high as democrat, and Trump has a lot of new voters. It's going to be decided more on the opinions of the independents than the turnout of either base.
definitely a step in the right direction, keep going... :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 06:06:46 PM
?s=21

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 06:09:37 PM
?s=21

That's it?? Liberals can do much better than that.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 03, 2020, 06:10:22 PM
?s=21

Just wait til it hit 120%.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 03, 2020, 06:12:38 PM
Just wait til it hit 120%.
LOL.  I think by 150% there might be some questions asked... :D
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 06:15:08 PM
Just wait til it hit 120%.
Good one. I don't know how these things work - can they be registered at home but voting by college, skewing the local turnout?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 03, 2020, 06:28:10 PM
because it's proof Republican turnout is as high as democrat, and Trump has a lot of new voters.

How does this change your prediction for other states? One of the arguments I've seen over the past weeks (don't remember if it was from you) is that that Trump would have a hard time getting any more votes than in 2016 and would therefore not be able to counter higher Democrat turnout.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 06:33:36 PM
How does this change your prediction for other states? One of the arguments I've seen over the past weeks (don't remember if it was from you) is that that Trump would have a hard time getting any more votes than in 2016 and would therefore not be able to counter higher Democrat turnout.
It's a good question but I think Florida is an outlier. The data coming in from other states like Texas, PA, WI, & MI isn't half as good for Trump. Maybe my bias is coming into play here.

BTW, The CNN exit polls has college educated voters up from 40% in 2016 to 45% in 2020. That's seriously bad news for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 06:45:30 PM
?s=21


My personal conviction now is Trump has a 40% chance in Florida. Not because the 200k votes are tipping the balance, but because it's proof Republican turnout is as high as democrat, and Trump has a lot of new voters. It's going to be decided more on the opinions of the independents than the turnout of either base.
if trump has Florida 538 gives trump a 33% chance of winning.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 06:46:16 PM
BTW, The CNN exit polls has college educated voters up from 40% in 2016 to 45% in 2020. That's seriously bad news for Trump.
What about the stupid uneducated vote?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 06:52:21 PM
What about the stupid uneducated vote?
55% vs 60% in 2016.
White vote 71% in 2016 vs 65% in 2020.

Florida may be close but the elector college isn't.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 03, 2020, 06:53:36 PM
BTW, The CNN exit polls has college educated voters up from 40% in 2016 to 45% in 2020. That's seriously bad news for Trump.

Early exit polls are meaningless! (And yes, that includes the ones showing that the economy is the primary issue for voters)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 06:58:33 PM
Early exit polls are meaningless! (And yes, that includes the ones showing that the economy is the primary issue for voters)
I think the demographics are more reliable. I think Women/men share is showing the exact same as 2016
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 06:59:01 PM
PSA

For the guys here who didn't have much time to waste the past few days.

Florida early results will lean Biden. Everyone expects that. Because they are counting EVs right away. Same for Georgia.

In PA it will be the other way around. First reporting election day vote which will be pro Trump. And will shift towards Biden as more early votes come in
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 03, 2020, 07:03:08 PM
I think the demographics are more reliable. I think Women/men share is showing the exact same as 2016

Except that they always have to adjust the demographic results once the votes are counted to reflect the actual results.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 07:04:13 PM
PSA

For the guys here who didn't have much time to waste the past few days.

Florida early results will lean Biden. Everyone expects that. Because they are counting EVs right away. Same for Georgia.

Trump +12 in FL at 7%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 07:08:16 PM
Trump +12 in FL at 7%
...but Trump is slightly underperforming county by county compared to 2016.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 07:13:09 PM
CNN John King is knocking it out of the park. Nothing but data, no spin!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 07:13:21 PM
...but Trump is slightly underperforming county by county compared to 2016.
Yup. Bad news for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 07:16:17 PM
CNN John King is knocking it out of the park. Nothing but data, no spin!!!
Wolf needs to shut up and let John run the show!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 07:17:14 PM
Yup. Bad news for Trump.
Did you say who you voted for?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 03, 2020, 07:24:38 PM
Early exit polls are meaningless! (And yes, that includes the ones showing that the economy is the primary issue for voters)

Also including the exit polls that shows 48% believe Covid was handled well.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 07:27:58 PM
Looks like Trump did much better in MIA than he did in 2016.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 07:29:16 PM
Looks like Trump did much better in MIA than he did in 2016.
Ye. And if you follow smart dems they just gave up on FL because of that
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 07:29:51 PM
Looks like Trump did much better in MIA than he did in 2016.

The NYT has him @ 91% in FL - I think he has a good chance as was discussed earlier in the day, ppl are scared of AOC.
(https://i.postimg.cc/0Q8v6qrX/NYT.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 07:30:35 PM
Looks like Trump did much better in MIA than he did in 2016.
Watch total votes and not just % but Trump looks good there.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 03, 2020, 07:36:31 PM
The NYT has him @ 91% in FL - I think he has a good chance as was discussed earlier in the day, ppl are scared of AOC.
(https://i.postimg.cc/0Q8v6qrX/NYT.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
I saw this.  Why are they so convinced?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 03, 2020, 07:37:22 PM
GA dosent look good for trump  if he loses GA his path isnt so clear
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 07:37:34 PM
I saw this.  Why are they so convinced?
Based in #s reported and the FL PH, he has some really good chances.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 07:38:58 PM
I saw this.  Why are they so convinced?
The +3.5 seems high.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 07:39:47 PM
Based in #s reported and the FL PH, he has some really good chances.
Miami Dade is where he is killing it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 07:41:58 PM
Miami Dade is where he is killing it.

While trump needs FL, biden doesn't.

Trump might do well with the hispanic vote but that doesn't boil down to a WIN.
While trump can sell x-socialism in FL, that doesn't really sell in many other swing states.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 07:42:43 PM
GA dosent look good for trump  if he loses GA his path isnt so clear
PSA

For the guys here who didn't have much time to waste the past few days.

Florida early results will lean Biden. Everyone expects that. Because they are counting EVs right away. Same for Georgia.

In PA it will be the other way around. First reporting election day vote which will be pro Trump. And will shift towards Biden as more early votes come in

NYT needle actually showing trump winning ga
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yungermanchik on November 03, 2020, 07:43:14 PM
How does it work with the AP calling a race (https://www.google.com/search?q=election+results&oq=election+results&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i131i433l4j69i61l3.12818j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)? They already called Virginia for Biden even though Trump has the lead.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 07:59:41 PM
I love CNN, John King reporting... But they gotta report results a little quicker.... Their numbers are a few mins behind
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 08:01:27 PM
I love CNN, John King reporting... But they gotta report results a little quicker.... Their numbers are a few mins behind
I don't really support clickbait.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 03, 2020, 08:08:36 PM
Trump has FL
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 08:09:12 PM
Trump has FL

ILL  2nd that...
That might mean a long night or week..
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 03, 2020, 08:10:43 PM
ILL  2nd that...
That might mean a long night or week..
only if he has GA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 08:12:29 PM
only if he has GA

He can do well in MI and WI then he doesn't need GA.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 08:16:56 PM
John King starting to annoy me. Everyone knows FL is Trump. And he is still giving drushes about it..

Soem networks have already called it... Looks like he will do better than 2016.

@PlatinumGuy

Trump chance of winning?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 03, 2020, 08:18:54 PM
John King starting to annoy me. Everyone knows FL is Trump. And he is still giving drushes about it..

Soem networks have already called it... Looks like he will do better than 2016.

@PlatinumGuy

Trump chance of winning?
Haha earlier it moved from 1% to 3%   now probably up to 5%

#MAGA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 08:20:43 PM
John King starting to annoy me. Everyone knows FL is Trump. And he is still giving drushes about it..

Soem networks have already called it... Looks like he will do better than 2016.

@PlatinumGuy

Trump chance of winning?
10% Electoral college, 99% Florida. It's Cubans that moved the needle, they aren't doing that anywhere else. Trump 90% won Texas too with high Republican turnout.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 08:21:18 PM
John King starting to annoy me. Everyone knows FL is Trump. And he is still giving drushes about it..
His is giving just data.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 08:28:42 PM
10% Electoral college, 99% Florida. It's Cubans that moved the needle, they aren't doing that anywhere else. Trump 90% won Texas too with high Republican turnout.
NYT giving trump  FL/GA/NC very good winning chances.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 08:29:41 PM
AP just called FL for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 08:34:17 PM
AP called FL for Trump.
He killed in Miami Dade.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 03, 2020, 08:35:28 PM
Impressive win in FL, but TX surprisingly looking shaky for Trump, which would be fatal.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 03, 2020, 08:36:00 PM
He killed in Miami Dade.
I guess the Cubans know what's awaiting America if the socialists have their way. That should be telling us something. Scary.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 08:36:11 PM
Trump ahead by 20 points in Virginia?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 08:36:29 PM
10% Electoral college, 99% Florida. It's Cubans that moved the needle, they aren't doing that anywhere else.

+1
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zale on November 03, 2020, 08:36:38 PM
He killed in Miami Dade.

I'm curious if Orthodox Jews moving down from NY had any effect on this.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 08:36:50 PM
AP just called FL for Trump.

Where do you see this? I'm sure he won though.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 08:36:54 PM
Trump ahead by 20 points in Virginia?

There might be some surprises tonight.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 08:37:06 PM
Impressive win in FL, but TX surprisingly looking shaky for Trump, which would be fatal.
It's all the early votes in TX now.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 08:37:25 PM
No good ohio!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yungermanchik on November 03, 2020, 08:37:53 PM
Trump ahead by 20 points in Virginia?
Yes, that's why I don't understand this:
How does it work with the AP calling a race (https://www.google.com/search?q=election+results&oq=election+results&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i131i433l4j69i61l3.12818j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)? They already called Virginia for Biden even though Trump has the lead.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 08:38:59 PM
Where do you see this? I'm sure he won though.
I don't see it in AP's Twitter feed though, not sure where they got it from.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 08:39:06 PM
No good ohio!

@Dan your prediction?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 08:40:15 PM
Impressive win in FL, but TX surprisingly looking shaky for Trump, which would be fatal.
Way too early for TX.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 08:40:18 PM
Trump ahead by 20 points in Virginia?

AP already called VA for Biden

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-virginia.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=FooterNavigation

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 08:41:32 PM
I guess the Cubans know what's awaiting America if the socialists have their way. That should be telling us something. Scary.
Can we put the kool-aid away for one night? If not we will get things like Trump is getting killed by the educated vote, that should tell you something.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 03, 2020, 08:42:47 PM
Can we put the kool-aid away for one night? If not we will get things like Trump is getting killed by the educated vote, that should tell you something.  :)
I'm edumaciated and I voooteeed forr Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 08:43:35 PM
Yes, that's why I don't understand this:

According to AP only 34% of data is in. Maybe theyre expecting the bigger cities (Richmond, Norfolk etc.) to skew D enough to make up the 20%+, might also factor historical data, idk.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yungermanchik on November 03, 2020, 08:44:39 PM
AP already called VA for Biden

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-virginia.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=FooterNavigation
Do you have an explanation?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 08:47:42 PM
Do you have an explanation?

Maybe theyre expecting the bigger cities (Richmond, Norfolk etc.) to skew D enough to make up the 20%+, might also factor historical data, idk.

Same can be said for many races
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 08:48:59 PM
I guess the Cubans know what's awaiting America if the socialists have their way. That should be telling us something. Scary.
I think it has more to do with emphasis on macho appearance

I'm curious if Orthodox Jews moving down from NY had any effect on this.
Trump got 100k more votes than 2016, there can't possibly be more than 10-20k frum Jews at the very most extreme (more likely 1-5k)


Way too early for TX.
Trump won Texas. The margin for Biden in Harris isn't big enough.

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 08:49:11 PM
Can we put the kool-aid away for one night? If not we will get things like Trump is getting killed by the educated vote, that should tell you something.  :)

LOL - No surprises as brainwashing is rampant is college.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 08:50:28 PM
LOL - No surprises as brainwashing is rampant is college.
I hear the same for close knit religions also. Ca we put the kool-aid away?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 08:51:03 PM
Impressive win in FL, but TX surprisingly looking shaky for Trump, which would be fatal.
Nah. Just too early. Wait. This liberal guy who knows TX well has basically given up..

https://mobile.twitter.com/breaking_et
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 03, 2020, 08:51:12 PM
I hear the same for close knit religions also. Ca we put the kool-aid away?
Says the man who's high
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 08:51:32 PM
Trump won Texas. The margin for Biden in Harris isn't big enough.

So Harris (TX) doesnt like Harris (Kamala) that much? 😂
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 08:52:21 PM
Says the man who's high
Not today.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 03, 2020, 08:52:35 PM
I think it has more to do with emphasis on macho appearance

Definitely not. There's been a lot of talk of the national Dems playing with socialism, and Hialeah ain't havin it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 03, 2020, 08:52:57 PM
Not today.
Phew. ;)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 08:53:28 PM
Trump got 100k more votes than 2016, there can't possibly be more than 10-20k frum Jews at the very most extreme (more likely 1-5k)
Only 100k?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 03, 2020, 08:53:45 PM
Not today. yet

Night is still young.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 08:54:13 PM
Nah. Just too early. Wait. This liberal guy who knows TX well has basically given up..

https://mobile.twitter.com/breaking_et

Im not seeing it. Link to the tweet?

And whats the pinned tweet about Twitter rules about?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 08:54:44 PM
AP calls IN for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Shmulie on November 03, 2020, 08:55:32 PM
Ohio and North Carolina are looking pretty bad for Trump
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 08:58:29 PM
Now a Joke!!

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 08:59:24 PM
Ohio and North Carolina are looking pretty bad for Trump

NYT has NC 79% for Trump. OH still too early but swinging back towards Trump as expected.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 09:00:38 PM
?s=24
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 09:00:54 PM
NYT has NC 79% for Trump. OH still too early but swinging back towards Trump as expected.
IIRC in 2016 OH went the same way.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 09:01:05 PM
Trump spent very little on ads in OH. Biden has spent a fortune.
Have to wonder if that will prove to be an epic mistake by the Trump campaign.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 09:02:43 PM
Ohio and North Carolina are looking pretty bad for Trump
97% of reported vote in Ohio is Early voting, dont just look at numbers. Trump is actually projected ahead in both, heavy favorite in NC right now
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 09:02:50 PM
?s=24

Let's see who's reverse-jinx works better
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 09:03:19 PM
AP calls NM for Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 09:03:53 PM
Only 100k?
I think more. Hate to fall into the predicted partisan stance but there are some D ballots stuck in the USPS, though probably not enough to swing FL
Trump spent very little on ads in OH. Biden has spent a fortune.
Have to wonder if that will prove to be an epic mistake by the Trump campaign.
Interesting, and evidence the Democrat advantage in late stage fundraising will prove significant. Expect 2024 fundraising to skyrocket.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 09:06:41 PM
AP calls NM for Biden.

Any idea why Googles AP map shows that AP called NM for Biden but doesnt show any detailed numbers when you click?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: nucheiner on November 03, 2020, 09:07:03 PM
Let's see who's reverse-jinx works better
Not a jinx, its pretend journalism. Were not biased we even projected he may win
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 09:08:44 PM
AP calls NM for Biden.

With 0% reporting!!
 
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 09:09:29 PM
Any idea why Googles AP map shows that AP called NM for Biden but doesnt show any detailed numbers when you click?

AP called a bunch of races before any votes were counted. Virginia and I believe I saw NJ was called like that.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: avromie7 on November 03, 2020, 09:10:19 PM
Any idea why Googles AP map shows that AP called NM for Biden but doesnt show any detailed numbers when you click?
It seems they "call" any state that is guaranteed as soon as the polls close. At exactly 8PM they called a whole slew of eastern states.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:10:30 PM
?s=24
I will make my first prediction. One of them will be right.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: avromie7 on November 03, 2020, 09:11:24 PM
AP called a bunch of races before any votes were counted. Virginia and I believe I saw NJ was called like that.
NJ, MA, RI, IL, AL, WV, MS, TN, and some others.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 09:11:29 PM
AP called a bunch of races before any votes were counted. Virginia and I believe I saw NJ was called like that.

(https://i.postimg.cc/QMs70VsW/ap.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 09:11:36 PM
I will make my first prediction. One of them will be right.

Accepting bets? Bring out your PUOSU cannon... 😂😂
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 09:12:07 PM
I will make my first prediction. One of them will be right.

PUOSU!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:12:44 PM
Accepting bets? Bring out your PUOSU cannon... 😂😂
I trying to not go there but some are really pushing it.  ;)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 09:12:49 PM
NJ, MA, RI, IL, AL, WV, MS, TN, and some others.

They explain how they call them here:

https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-race-calls-0b1988605f9101f4b799fc63b01e0090?utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

Sounds like they could be wrong about at least some, hmmm.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:13:12 PM
PUOSU!
I just did and will give 100:1 odds.  :P
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zale on November 03, 2020, 09:13:19 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/QMs70VsW/ap.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

Well that's a shocker. I was certain Don Blankenship had it in the bag.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 09:13:53 PM
How does it work with the AP calling a race (https://www.google.com/search?q=election+results&oq=election+results&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i131i433l4j69i61l3.12818j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)? They already called Virginia for Biden even though Trump has the lead.

@yungermanchik this AP article explains it:

They explain how they call them here:

https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-race-calls-0b1988605f9101f4b799fc63b01e0090?utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

Sounds like they could be wrong about at least some, hmmm.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 09:14:01 PM
Will this all come down to PA?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 09:15:11 PM
Will this all come down to PA?
Not if Biden wins Ohio
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 09:15:23 PM
Well that's a shocker. I was certain Don Blankenship had it in the bag.

And here I was thinking Kanye and Jo were practically tied favorites
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: EliJelly on November 03, 2020, 09:15:31 PM
AP called a bunch of races before any votes were counted. Virginia and I believe I saw NJ was called like that.
Same for NY.
Clearly oblivious to the frum voting turnout in the millions :-\
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 09:15:55 PM
Not if Biden wins Ohio

Dan hasnt called Ohio yet...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:19:02 PM
FOX says D's expand house by 5+
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 03, 2020, 09:21:41 PM
Will this all come down to PA?
Anecdotally, a business acquaintance who lives in a very liberal part of PA (rainbow banners and all) told me that when he went to vote there were only Trump supporters from the conversations going on.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 03, 2020, 09:25:47 PM
Anecdotally, a business acquaintance who lives in a very liberal part of PA (rainbow banners and all) told me that when he went to vote there were only Trump supporters from the conversations going on.
From your friends mouth to poll results :D. #MAGA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 09:26:56 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 03, 2020, 09:27:37 PM
From your friends mouth to poll results :D. #MAGA
It is worth about as much as the ddf poll
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 09:29:00 PM
Where is fox saying that Biden has 80% chance winning? Probably based off raw results without ED etc..

NYT is based off background data
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 09:30:37 PM
Same with OH. Its just early results now which we know is leaning D. Just wait it out. Will turn red soon. In 2016 I remember is being clinton in the beggining as well
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:30:49 PM
Where is fox saying that Biden has 80% chance winning? Probably based off raw results without ED etc..

NYT is based off background data
They still didn't call FL.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 03, 2020, 09:33:19 PM
They still didn't call FL.

Quote
the analyst who will run Fox News election decision desk is a registered Democrat who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 & gave Democrats more than $4,000, including $1,525 for Obama. Arnon Mishkin will announce states for Biden or Trump on election night
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 03, 2020, 09:33:53 PM
TX turned red
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 03, 2020, 09:34:04 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: EliJelly on November 03, 2020, 09:34:28 PM
Phew, Texas shifted to red
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 03, 2020, 09:35:42 PM
Assuming trump wins Florida Georgia North Carolina and Ohio, what else does he need to win?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 03, 2020, 09:37:56 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:38:48 PM
2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
1   Donald Trump      -190   
2   Joe Biden      +165   

These are live odds
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 09:39:17 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 03, 2020, 09:39:30 PM
Assuming trump wins Florida Georgia North Carolina and Ohio, what else does he need to win?

PA and one of AZ/MI/WI
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 03, 2020, 09:40:33 PM
Ohio turned red
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 03, 2020, 09:41:10 PM

From which site? The betting sites I used to refresh are down.
2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
1   Donald Trump      -190   
2   Joe Biden      +165   

These are live odds
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:42:45 PM
2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
1   Donald Trump   -180   
2   Joe Biden      +160

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 03, 2020, 09:43:06 PM
So happy I can go to sleep early tonight knowing trump is winning...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 09:44:04 PM

(https://i.postimg.cc/RZx9528d/FC9-F6-BC7-7-C36-47-A2-A602-22-C96-B93-DE68.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 09:45:04 PM
Trump is probably going to win. I didnt think he would.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 09:45:20 PM
Can Trump win PA and AZ?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 09:45:35 PM
CNN is getting worried.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 09:46:02 PM
CNN is getting worried.

Time to tune in? Or not yet? 😂
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 09:46:54 PM
?s=21



Can Trump win PA and AZ?
AZ is much more likely than PA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:47:15 PM
Time to tune in? Or not yet? 😂
No panic yet.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 09:47:46 PM
No panic yet.
They seem really unhappy.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 09:47:57 PM
?s=21


AZ is much more likely than PA

Keep calm lol
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 09:48:49 PM
They seem really unhappy.

Of course, theyve been polling Biden since forever and this was supposed to be a slam dunk, nobody there packed any deodorant for tonight.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 09:49:25 PM
Trump is still ahead by 15 points in VA with 45% reporting.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Shmulie on November 03, 2020, 09:49:44 PM
What's the best website for seeing the results on the smallest level (district to district)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: avromie7 on November 03, 2020, 09:50:39 PM
WCBS at 9:30 "Trump is up by 3 points in FL, 51-48 with 93% of the votes counted. Biden would need to win 83% of the remaining votes, so FL may go to Trump"
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on November 03, 2020, 09:51:13 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 09:51:23 PM
Trump is still ahead by 15 points in VA with 45% reporting.
Majority of the votes counted in VA thus far are election day votes, while in the end the majority will be vote by mail. It will be tighter than they expected but Biden will probably still win.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Pad18 on November 03, 2020, 09:52:08 PM
What's the best website for seeing the results on the smallest level (district to district)

Google .. zoom on a a state
https://www.google.com/search?q=live+election+results&oq=&aqs=chrome.0.69i59i450l5.-1j0j7&client=ms-android-google&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#scso=_nwaiX9LxBYOQ5wLUzKHQCQ3:1159.272705078125,_nwaiX9LxBYOQ5wLUzKHQCQ5:175.63636779785156,_8gqiX6HRFs-W5gLPg5OQBQ29:0,_8gqiX6HRFs-W5gLPg5OQBQ2:698.9091186523438
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:53:07 PM
FOX annalist guy is good but the map guy sucks.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: avromie7 on November 03, 2020, 09:53:42 PM
Trump is still ahead by 15 points in VA with 45% reporting.
11.5 with 49% reporting. It seems they were confident to call it but now they're hesitant to backtrack. In a couple of hours we'll have a better picture.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:54:35 PM
U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
1   Donald Trump      -220   
2   Joe Biden      +190   

Big money going on Trump.
Local book says it is 10:1 betting on Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 09:55:09 PM
?s=21


AZ is much more likely than PA
Trump is up more than 100K votes (2.5%) with more than 75% in, including majority early voting. Trump will win Ohio. He has been chipping away slowly and steadily for the last hour, just like 2016. Im surprised nobody has called it yet.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 09:57:17 PM
Old news.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 09:57:39 PM
Trump is up more than 100K votes (2.5%) with more than 75% in, including majority early voting. Trump will win Ohio. He has been chipping away slowly and steadily for the last hour, just like 2016. Im surprised nobody has called it yet.
If CNN and FOX haven't called FL yet, they're definitely not calling OH.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:58:12 PM
2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
1   Donald Trump      -280   
2   Joe Biden      +235

I might have to put some down on Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 03, 2020, 09:59:00 PM
FOX annalist guy is good but the map guy sucks.
which one? They have a few analysts
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:59:11 PM
If CNN and FOX haven't called FL yet, they're definitely not calling OH.
They called Virginia and others have pulled calling it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 09:59:26 PM
which one? They have a few analysts
Chris
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 03, 2020, 10:00:14 PM
Trump is probably going to win. I didnt think he would.
if you follow DDF apparently Biden was winning in a landslide  ::)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:00:57 PM
2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
1   Donald Trump      -325   
2   Joe Biden      +270

This is crazy.

ETA: Local book just pulled the line.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 03, 2020, 10:01:30 PM
Ignore trump wins all/most of the swing states, does that qualify for a landslide?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 03, 2020, 10:02:01 PM
Chris
the guy whos getting red in the face?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 10:02:42 PM
2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
1   Donald Trump      -325   
2   Joe Biden      +270

This is crazy.

ETA: Local book just pulled the line.
Might be time to start cashing out your bets. Buy it out for 50 cents on the dollar?

BTW Trump now up more than 3% in Ohio
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on November 03, 2020, 10:02:43 PM
if you follow DDF apparently Biden was winning in a landslide  ::)
Winning his basement
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:03:05 PM
the guy whos getting red in the face?
Heavy set, slightly bald.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 03, 2020, 10:03:49 PM
2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
1   Donald Trump      -325   
2   Joe Biden      +270

This is crazy.

ETA: Local book just pulled the line.
What do these numbers mean again?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 10:04:15 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 10:04:31 PM
What do these numbers mean again?
It means Trump is a HEAVY betting favorite
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:06:34 PM
What do these numbers mean again?
You have to put up 3.25 to win 1 on trump
You put up 1 to win 2.75 on biden
Trump big favorite.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 03, 2020, 10:06:58 PM
2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WINNER

DONALD TRUMP
-600
JOE BIDEN
+350


WT$

Trump may have actually pulled this off.

הכל בידי שמים
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on November 03, 2020, 10:07:01 PM
How does it feel living in a state that voted Biden?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 03, 2020, 10:07:31 PM
It means Trump is a HEAVY betting favorite
You have to put up 3.25 to win 1 on trump
You put up 1 to win 2.75 on biden
Trump big favorite.
Thanks. I guess for once I agree with gamblers.  :P
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 10:07:42 PM
John King on CNN just now: If the President wins VA, as it looks now like he will, he will get re-elected.

NC flipping to Trump now as well. Biden lead down from 100K to 5K and shrinking.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 03, 2020, 10:07:51 PM
NC turned red
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 03, 2020, 10:08:32 PM
NC is tight nail-biter. Looks like Trump pulls W though.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:09:00 PM
Thanks. I guess for once I agree with gamblers.  :P
Actually the gamblers are fools. They are paying way to high of a price as there is panic. FOMO
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 03, 2020, 10:09:36 PM
It is worth about as much as the ddf poll
Probably a bit more. Haha
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:10:08 PM
John King on CNN just now: If the President wins VA, as it looks now like he will, he will get re-elected.

NC flipping to Trump now as well. Biden lead down from 100K to 5K and shrinking.
They called Virginia and others have pulled calling it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 03, 2020, 10:10:37 PM
Thanks. I guess for once I agree with gamblers.  :P

Follow the money.  :) They're usually the best indicator. Capitalism is merciless and brutally honest.

Markets were red last week, cautiously green yesterday, and heavy green today.  Strong Trump indicator.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 10:11:21 PM
can I see amount of online ddfers now? Highest ever?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 03, 2020, 10:11:31 PM
What are the chances trump wins Arizona now?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on November 03, 2020, 10:12:34 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:13:12 PM
He has vowed to hold China accountable for allowing COVID to spread.
We have a no kool-aid rule tonight.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Sammy82 on November 03, 2020, 10:13:15 PM
2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
1   Donald Trump      -325   
2   Joe Biden      +270

This is crazy.

ETA: Local book just pulled the line.
Wish I knew what these numbers mean
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 03, 2020, 10:13:25 PM
can I see amount of online ddfers now? Highest ever?

https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?action=who

Not even close. But there are 2 hidden users, so Rabbi Taub must be following.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 10:13:59 PM
Wish I knew what these numbers mean
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=120923.msg2348409#msg2348409
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on November 03, 2020, 10:14:00 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 03, 2020, 10:14:06 PM
Does Trump really have any chance at VA? It's fairly blue these days and wasn't even listed as a swing state and nobody campaigned there. How could King say it looks like Trump will win it??
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 10:14:14 PM
Actually the gamblers are fools. They are paying way to high of a price as there is panic. FOMO
Who do you think will win right now? Trump can win comfortably even losing PA. A sentence nobody would have said 3 hours ago.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:14:19 PM
Wish I knew what these numbers mean
Just look at the Trump number. He is a 3.25:1 favorite
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 10:14:26 PM
We have a no kool-aid rule tonight.

We do? What about if you spike it?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:15:18 PM
Who do you think will win right now? Trump can win comfortably even losing PA. A sentence nobody would have said 3 hours ago.
They just dropped. For every $3.50 you bet you win $1
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 03, 2020, 10:15:29 PM
An ominous sign for Biden in Pennsylvania: Trump running ahead of his 2016 performance in Trumbull County (Warren, near Youngstown and on the west PA border) with nearly all of the vote counted
Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) Twitter
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:16:05 PM
We do?
It has been pretty honest so far so why ruin it?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 03, 2020, 10:16:10 PM
Everyone is obsessed with Pres. What about Senate outcome? Impressed that Graham was called early. Collins is running ahead of Trump but may not be enough. Looks like Perdue may avoid runoff which is good.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 10:16:23 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Zalc on November 03, 2020, 10:16:24 PM
These pictures are simpler.

https://ftx.com/trade/BIDEN

Election betting odds aggregator:
http://maximwebsite.tripod.com/President2020.html
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 03, 2020, 10:20:17 PM
What are the chances trump wins Arizona now?

He's trailing heavily with 75% in. That's embarrassing.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 03, 2020, 10:20:45 PM
How about the house and senate, is there a solid chance that republicans get control of both?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 10:21:14 PM
How about the house and senate, is there a solid chance that republicans get control of both?
NO!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:21:31 PM
How about the house and senate, is there a solid chance that republicans get control of both?
0 chance in house
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 03, 2020, 10:21:37 PM
How about the house and senate, is there a solid chance that republicans get control of both?

No
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:22:27 PM
Turn on MSNBC and watch Chuck. Is not facing reality.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 03, 2020, 10:22:37 PM
How about the house and senate, is there a solid chance that republicans get control of both?
House not.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: chinagel on November 03, 2020, 10:23:40 PM
@CountValentine  where would you put your money now? #seriousquestion
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 10:23:43 PM
How about the house and senate, is there a solid chance that republicans get control of both?

Even I (white and uneducated) know that isnt the case.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:29:01 PM
@CountValentine  where would you put your money now? #seriousquestion
I just cashed my arbitrage position. Made a nice profit.
Took Biden at +325 and just took Trump at -240.
That is how you make money even when you hate one guy. You don't bet with emotions.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 10:32:34 PM
Trumps lead is growing in FL and they're still not calling it. RIGGED!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 10:32:58 PM
AZ is no good at all.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:33:05 PM
Trump now bet $2.25 to win $1. These are back reality.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:33:33 PM
Trumps lead is growing in FL and they're still not calling it. RIGGED!!!
They have to keep you watching.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 10:34:20 PM
He's trailing heavily with 75% in. That's embarrassing.
They are weighted to early and mail in voting. Election Day voting makes up most of the remaining votes.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 03, 2020, 10:35:55 PM
AZ is no good at all.

He looks done there.

Up heavy early in PA, but that's known to be irrelevant. Mail ins won't be reported till late, so if it's tight race by tomorrow he's done there.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:36:44 PM
Mail ins won't be reported till late, so if it's tight race by tomorrow he's done there.
SCOTUS?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 10:39:18 PM
SCOTUS?
And ACB leans to Trump, and we have riots for 4 years.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:40:46 PM
And ACB leans to Trump, and we have riots for 4 years.
Let you in on a little secret. If she votes based on how she feels about Trump he is toast.  ;)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 03, 2020, 10:41:10 PM
They are weighted to early and mail in voting. Election Day voting makes up most of the remaining votes.
He needs about 70% of remaining. That's very optimistic.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 10:41:43 PM
SCOTUS?
Only for ballots received Nov 3-6. USPS shenanigans mean SCOTUS is very likely to allow them even if they do revisit. Hopefully the margin will be big enough that it won't come to it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:42:09 PM
He needs about 70% of remaining. That's very optimistic.
Probably a little higher.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 10:42:24 PM
AZ is no good at all.
Very bad news for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:43:02 PM
Very bad news for Trump.
Still looks like PA?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 10:46:09 PM
Still looks like PA?
PA won't be enough, will also need MI or WI if he loses AZ.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 10:46:50 PM
Very bad news for Trump.
hopefully this is true
They are weighted to early and mail in voting. Election Day voting makes up most of the remaining votes.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:47:23 PM
PA won't be enough, will also need MI or WI if he loses AZ.
Ouch!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 03, 2020, 10:48:29 PM
Probably a little higher.

He's down 210k with 800k unreported. If those figures are accurate, he needs 64% of remaining to take state. 2/3 is still very optimistic, but not impossible. @S209 is right.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 10:54:14 PM
Like I mentioned yesterday AZ will be tough.

The markets are favoring trump now because he is ahead in pa/wi/mi.   In reality that might be because of ED votes. When early vote will come in things may change. I still think Biden has a good chance.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yitzgar on November 03, 2020, 10:54:27 PM
PA won't be enough, will also need MI or WI if he loses AZ.
MI is definitely within reach
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 10:55:33 PM
Imagine if there's a tie...wow!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 10:55:43 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 10:56:18 PM
Like I mentioned yesterday AZ will be tough.

The markets are favoring trump now because he is ahead in pa/wi/mi.   In reality that might be because of ED votes. When early vote will come in things may change. I still think Biden has a good chance.
Of course he has a chance. But Trump is currently the easy favorite. Ahead in MI, WI, and PA and still a shot at AZ.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 10:57:06 PM
Imagine if there's a tie...wow!
Did you work out a scenario for that?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 10:57:48 PM
Did you work out a scenario for that?
Yes, and it's entirely possible.
(https://i.gyazo.com/e3eb243202de59d88ab14f9c8ca35866.png)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 03, 2020, 10:58:12 PM
For Jimmy Kimmel it's more like open heart surgery with each rib being broken shreds. All he does is bash Trump the whole day. Just like amost late night talk show hosts..
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 03, 2020, 11:00:20 PM
PA won't be enough, will also need MI or WI if he loses AZ.

VA looking good for trump though. He lost that in 2016
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 03, 2020, 11:01:05 PM
They have to keep you watching.
what makes you think we wont watch if they call Florida?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:01:44 PM
FOX calls CA.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 03, 2020, 11:02:21 PM
FOX calls CA.  :)
Phew, didn't see that coming!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Shmulie on November 03, 2020, 11:02:52 PM
For Jimmy Kimmel it's more like open heart surgery with each rib being broken shreds. All he does is bash Trump the whole day. Just like amost late night talk show hosts..

He's better off with Trump winning otherwise he'll have no material for the next 4 years
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 11:03:43 PM
He's better off with Trump winning otherwise he'll have no material for the next 4 years
With President Biden?!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 11:03:48 PM
VA looking good for trump though. He lost that in 2016
No, blue counties haven't reported yet. VA is a long shot.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:04:35 PM
FOX calls FL.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: how on November 03, 2020, 11:04:46 PM
Imagine if there's a tie...wow!
it is 2020
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 03, 2020, 11:05:10 PM
Fox called FL for trump
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 03, 2020, 11:06:49 PM
no way biden will give a concession speech tonight, he cant prepare 2 speeches let alone 1... we need to give him at least a week to prepare a concession speech...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 03, 2020, 11:08:53 PM
FOX calls FL.
CNN still holding off, what are they waiting for?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 11:10:11 PM
FOX calls FL.
?s=21
Is that the same guy who spent $500,000,000 on a campaign that went nowhere. Definitely the guy who knows "how to spend money on campaigns" and "knows whats up"  ROTFLMAO
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 03, 2020, 11:10:26 PM
CNN still holding off, what are they waiting for?
fraudulent mail in ballots... ;)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 11:11:29 PM
Imagine if there's a tie...wow!
NE2 will break the tie
CNN still holding off, what are they waiting for?
Probably clinging to hope the estimated count of remaining votes is incorrect
fraudulent mail in ballots... ;)
Florida only counts ballots received before polls close. NC is gonna be nuts if it's close
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 03, 2020, 11:11:30 PM
What's gong on in AZ no reporting for the last hour?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Shmulie on November 03, 2020, 11:15:02 PM
With President Biden?!


there will be some but definitely not as much because his viewers won't take kindly to it
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 03, 2020, 11:15:37 PM
what are we looking at in regards to the senate? any chance republicans gain a seat or two?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:16:04 PM
what are we looking at in regards to the senate? any chance republicans gain a seat or two?
No
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yef on November 03, 2020, 11:18:07 PM
What happens if there is a tie
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Pad18 on November 03, 2020, 11:19:57 PM
We will continue to wait for more vote to come here ..

#phraseofthenight
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Shmulie on November 03, 2020, 11:20:14 PM
what are we looking at in regards to the senate? any chance republicans gain a seat or two?

No

They gained a seat in Alabama
But they are likely going to lose a few so there will probably be a net loss
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:20:39 PM
What happens if there is a tie
Pelosi gets her wish.
Thankfully, the Constitution has a contingency plan for tie elections laid out in Article II, Section 1: f there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:22:05 PM
Fox calls AZ for Biden
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 03, 2020, 11:22:23 PM
What happens if there is a tie

Trump offers a Cabinet seat to an elector from MN to go rogue.

Or it goes to the House, where each state delegation gets 1 vote. R's currently control 26 delegations, but it goes by the results from today. If that ends up a tie... maybe we go Israel and revote again and again?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 11:22:35 PM
Pelosi gets her wish.
Thankfully, the Constitution has a contingency plan for tie elections laid out in Article II, Section 1: f there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President.

Is it a given that all Dems will vote for Biden?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 11:23:57 PM
Having Trump winning FL and CNN not calling it is the definition of fake news.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 11:24:37 PM
Fox calls OH for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 11:25:27 PM
Pelosi gets her wish.
Thankfully, the Constitution has a contingency plan for tie elections laid out in Article II, Section 1: f there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President.
Nope. I believe that each State House delegation gets 1 vote, so 1 vote per state.
CMIIW.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 11:26:47 PM
Best place to watch meltdowns in progress? Currently swapping between CNN and TYT.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 03, 2020, 11:27:01 PM
Fox calls OH for Trump.

And OH always goes with the winner. So Trump wins. Right Dan?:)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 11:27:41 PM
Nope. I believe that each State House delegation gets 1 vote, so 1 vote per state.
CMIIW.

And that would go to the party with more congressman/women in each state?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 03, 2020, 11:29:18 PM
no way biden will give a concession speech tonight, he cant prepare 2 speeches let alone 1... we need to give him at least a week to prepare a concession speech...

It ain't over without PA, especially if Democrats flipped AZ. Nothing to concede tonight.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 11:29:31 PM
Nope. I believe that each State House delegation gets 1 vote, so 1 vote per state.
CMIIW.
It goes to the House, where each state delegation gets 1 vote. R's currently control 26 delegations, but it goes by the results from today. If that ends up a tie... maybe we go Israel and revote again and again?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 03, 2020, 11:30:27 PM
AZ called for Biden by FOX
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 11:31:23 PM
AZ called for Biden by FOX
Repost 2
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 03, 2020, 11:31:45 PM
AZ called for Biden by FOX
Good morning America
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 03, 2020, 11:31:51 PM
AZ called for Biden by FOX

WAY too soon to be calling Arizona...way too soon. We believe over 2/3 of those outstanding Election Day voters are going to be for Trump. Cant believe Fox was so anxious to pull the trigger here after taking so long to call Florida. Wow.
Jason Miller Twitter 3 mins ago
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 03, 2020, 11:33:25 PM
Best place to watch meltdowns in progress? Currently swapping between CNN and TYT.
Same here.
Nope. I believe that each State House delegation gets 1 vote, so 1 vote per state.
CMIIW.
You are correct. The Rs had a 27-23 advantage going in to tonight.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 11:33:49 PM
Nope. I believe that each State House delegation gets 1 vote, so 1 vote per state.
CMIIW.
Yeah which can be tied again, in which case it can go to senate, which can be tied and it's unclear if the VP can break the tie.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:34:07 PM
Nope. I believe that each State House delegation gets 1 vote, so 1 vote per state.
CMIIW.
I just used google.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on November 03, 2020, 11:34:18 PM
whats TYT?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 11:34:32 PM
Did anyone else call FL? (Other than Fox.)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 11:34:51 PM
whats TYT?
Some of the best meltdowns of 2016.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 03, 2020, 11:35:05 PM
whats TYT?
The Young Turks
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:35:20 PM
Having Trump winning FL and CNN not calling it is the definition of fake news.
FOX called way late are they fake news? How about AZ?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 11:35:29 PM
Same here. You are correct. The Rs had a 27-23 advantage going in to tonight.
26. As PA is tied.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 03, 2020, 11:35:39 PM
whats TYT?

The Young Turks
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 11:36:50 PM
Yeah which can be tied again, in which case it can go to senate, which can be tied and it's unclear if the VP can break the tie.
(https://i.gyazo.com/213f7fd0640b116362c827dc30a58fae.png)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:38:02 PM
Nope. I believe that each State House delegation gets 1 vote, so 1 vote per state.
CMIIW.
Correct
It is up to the delegation of representatives from each state to decide how their state will cast its one and only vote. Smaller states like Wyoming, Montana, and Vermont, with only one representative, wield as much power as California or New York. The District of Columbia does not get a vote in this process. The first candidate to win the votes of any 26 states is the new president. The 12th Amendment gives the House until the fourth day of March to select a president.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 03, 2020, 11:38:55 PM
Yeah which can be tied again, in which case it can go to senate.

Nope. They just keep voting until they break the tie.

VP is decided by the senate.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:39:17 PM
Can we get a tie now with AZ going for Biden? @Dan
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 11:41:24 PM
Can we get a tie now with AZ going for Biden? @Dan
Yes, and it's entirely possible.
(https://i.gyazo.com/e3eb243202de59d88ab14f9c8ca35866.png)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:42:03 PM
Not calling him out. A member said he can't for 11/3 to be over. Wonder if he still feels that way. We haven't seen nothing yet!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 11:42:26 PM
https://nypost.com/2020/11/03/mystery-brit-gambles-5m-on-trump-win-in-record-setting-bet/
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 03, 2020, 11:43:46 PM
Not calling him out. A member said he can't for 11/3 to be over. Wonder if he still feels that way. We haven't seen nothing yet!!!
I think it was me. We will have a good idea by tonight.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 11:43:50 PM
AZ was called but some with AZ knowledge claim its to early...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 11:44:25 PM
Now this is why we shall all head to bed.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 11:45:37 PM
(https://i.gyazo.com/21651f81fe8649130b27d7399be25887.png)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 11:46:04 PM
Nope. They just keep voting until they break the tie.

VP is decided by the senate.

What about when the current congressman/womans term ends? Their replacement gets to vote?

If an R senate gets to vote on veep, who would they nominate?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 03, 2020, 11:47:52 PM
Trump now only -130
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 11:48:22 PM
VA looking good for trump though. He lost that in 2016
No, blue counties haven't reported yet. VA is a long shot.
And now a big Biden lead.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 11:50:35 PM
AZ was called but some with AZ knowledge claim its to early...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 03, 2020, 11:52:05 PM
And now a big Biden lead.

So what. Trump will still win
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 11:52:36 PM
And now a big Biden lead.
CNN calls VA for Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 03, 2020, 11:52:41 PM
What about when the current congressman/womans term ends?

The new Congress are the ones to vote (after they are sworn in on Jan 3rd).

If an R senate gets to vote on veep, who would they nominate?

Pretty sure they have to choose from the candidates who tied.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 11:53:03 PM
Nope. They just keep voting until they break the tie.

VP is decided by the senate.
VP is in office and presides over senate until the next VP comes into office on Jan 20. The senate vote for VP is immediately after being sworn in on Jan 3
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 03, 2020, 11:53:10 PM
Betting site has it back to almost even odds 50-50
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 11:53:16 PM

This guy has some good Data on AZ
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 03, 2020, 11:53:20 PM
So what. Trump will still win
That's looking less and less probable over the past couple hours.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 03, 2020, 11:53:56 PM
Now this is why we shall all head to bed.
MI now saying they'll have final results within 24h
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 03, 2020, 11:54:28 PM
The new Congress are the ones to vote (after they are sworn in on Jan 3rd).

Pretty sure they have to choose from the candidates who tied.

So Harris or Pence? Interesting.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 03, 2020, 11:55:32 PM
Trump got TX
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zevi on November 03, 2020, 11:55:47 PM
Fox calls Texas for Trump
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 03, 2020, 11:57:18 PM
That's looking less and less probable over the past couple hours.

-1

He doesn't need PA to win 270, he can win NC,GA, WI and MI, and he won..

He has some headwind to make, but he got a chance.

Biden obviously looks better because he had less to fight for...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 03, 2020, 11:57:23 PM
VP is in office and presides over senate until the next VP comes into office on Jan 20. The senate vote for VP is immediately after being sworn in on Jan 3

Right, so it's theoretically possible that Pence will be the deciding vote on him being VP. (And if Biden wins the election in the House...)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 03, 2020, 11:57:51 PM
Fox calls Texas for Trump
Who could have seen that coming?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:00:34 AM
This guy has some good Data on AZ

Even the NYT.

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:01:55 AM
R to hold the senate..... MOST LIKELY
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 04, 2020, 12:03:15 AM
R to hold the senate..... MOST LIKELY
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=120881.0
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:03:45 AM
Even the NYT.


Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 12:03:51 AM
CNN calls OH for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 12:08:33 AM
NYT just put GA into tilting biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 12:14:51 AM
Fox calls IA for Trump
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: nsastamps on November 04, 2020, 12:16:42 AM
And now a big Biden lead.
Back to Trump lead in VA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 12:17:27 AM
Biden about to speak, what will he say? And how does Trump respond?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:18:22 AM
Betting site has it back to almost even odds 50-50
Which site? Seeing Trump -135
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yungermanchik on November 04, 2020, 12:18:41 AM
How did Florida go from 98% reporting to 96%?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:18:52 AM
NV live         https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:19:08 AM
How did Florida go from 98% reporting to 96%?
LOL
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:19:17 AM
NYT just put GA into tilting biden.

Weird...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:19:36 AM
How did Florida go from 98% reporting to 96%?

Ask Florida Man?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 04, 2020, 12:19:40 AM
How did Florida go from 98% reporting to 96%?
It's an estimate.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 12:20:58 AM
How did Florida go from 98% reporting to 96%?
CNN isn't that stupid
Probably clinging to hope the estimated count of remaining votes is incorrect
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 12:21:41 AM
It's an estimate.
They say that but they should have a count of how many ballots they received...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yungermanchik on November 04, 2020, 12:22:33 AM
AP finally called Ohio for Trump
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 12:22:37 AM
Fox is getting crazy heat over the AZ call
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 12:23:12 AM
Back to Trump lead in VA
Was already called for Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:23:25 AM
Fox is getting crazy heat over the AZ call
Will they cave?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:23:33 AM
NYT just put GA into tilting biden.
Its about Dekalb County I believe.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 12:23:56 AM
Fulton County called off counting for the night. GA won't be decided tonight.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:25:25 AM
Are we there yet?  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 12:25:38 AM
Fulton County called off counting for the night. GA won't be decided tonight.
Yeah only reported 30% and Clinton got 2m votes
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 12:28:01 AM
Fox calls MN for Biden
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 04, 2020, 12:28:31 AM
Will they cave?

They reversed the call
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 12:28:37 AM
Will they cave?
On fox saying Arizona is premature
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:29:49 AM
This guy has some good Data on AZ

Any now Fox redtracted... AZ, some say....  I don't see them doing it. but maybe..
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:30:42 AM
They reversed the call
Who did?
On fox saying Arizona is premature
Yes
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:31:11 AM
Any now Fox redtracted... AZ, some say....
Who says that?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 04, 2020, 12:33:27 AM
They reversed the call
not officially
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:34:16 AM
FOX doubling down on AZ. Lets stick to facts and not gossip!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 12:35:37 AM
Looks like there's 5 big states it could come down to: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia.
Trump leading in all of them now, but various things may be skewing the numbers (especially in PA).
Which, if any, of these states will we know tonight?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 12:36:17 AM
Looks like there's 5 big states it could come down to: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia.
Trump leading in all of them now, but various things may be skewing the numbers (especially in PA).
Which, if any, of these states will we know tonight?

My bet, just NC. For Trump
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 12:37:21 AM
Nate Silver, 3 minutes ago:
Quote
A lot of states have been called on some networks and not on others. If you plug in all the states where any network has called the state for Biden or Trump, it shows Biden at 88 percent to win the Electoral College, Trump at 6 percent, and a 6 percent chance of a tie. But that depends on Biden winning Arizona and Minnesota, which ABC News hasnt projected yet.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 12:37:51 AM
My bet, just NC. For Trump
And GA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 12:38:10 AM
Whatever ends up happening tonight, F*&K the polls!

Biden winning nationally by 10 points. LMAO!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yungermanchik on November 04, 2020, 12:38:29 AM
AP finally called FL for Trump!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 12:39:18 AM
And GA
20k ballots from Fulton county not being counted until tomorrow.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:39:32 AM
Whatever ends up happening tonight, F*&K the polls!

Biden winning nationally by 10 points. LMAO!
LOL
How do you really feel? Don't hold back!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 12:40:12 AM
And GA

GA has many outstanding ballots that won't be counted until noon tomorrow.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:40:23 AM
AP finally called FL for Trump!

About time!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:42:29 AM
FOX doubling down on AZ. Lets stick to facts and not gossip!!!
Now they are saying 100% on AZ!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:43:27 AM
Smart move by Biden going on offense.
He is pulling a Trump!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 12:43:33 AM
Joe feels good. YAY
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:44:45 AM
Joe feels good. YAY
...and he is awake!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 12:45:01 AM
Biden looks really old!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: SwellCindy on November 04, 2020, 12:45:28 AM
Musta gained 3 lbs tonight alone
d*mned 15k deductible
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:45:36 AM
Biden looks really old!
He is old.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 12:46:01 AM
Smart move by Biden going on offense.
He is pulling a Trump!!!

Will definitely boost the late voter turnout
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:46:50 AM
Invalid Tweet ID
The big T
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 12:47:13 AM
This is really nail biting
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 12:47:27 AM
After the Poles are closed? lol
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yzj on November 04, 2020, 12:47:37 AM
Poles???
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:47:43 AM
Will definitely boost the late voter turnout
Count every vote while Trump is crying on Twitter.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Euclid on November 04, 2020, 12:48:22 AM
Invalid Tweet ID
The big T
@CountValentine are you closed?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 12:48:34 AM
Pretty short and boring speech. Probably hard for him so late after his bedtime.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:49:15 AM
Poles???
He is old and spells like me.  :)
Maybe is talking about my homeland?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:50:21 AM
Pretty short and boring speech. Probably hard for him so late after his bedtime.
He Trumped Trump. Stop your crying!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 12:50:58 AM
I did not expect to get this much info already tonight.

I'm thinking most likely path for Biden might be PA, WI or MI, and NV?
That would push him over 270 when combining with Fox's called races. Fox is calling races very early, but anything they called is likely so I think it's a fair assumption.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:52:37 AM
@CountValentine are you closed?
He fixed the tweet.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 12:52:48 AM
Yeah only reported 30% and Clinton got 2m votes
2m in Fulton?

https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/georgia/
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:55:19 AM
Why are they crying about AZ? They can't vote anymore. FOX doesn't get to pick the winner.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:55:48 AM
Invalid Tweet ID
True?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:56:39 AM
2m in Fulton?

https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/georgia/
Little bit off.  ;)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 04, 2020, 12:57:23 AM
Biden's lead is dropping in AZ.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:57:32 AM
Invalid Tweet ID
True?
No for WI
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 12:58:06 AM
Everybody grazing over the senate?
Republicans have slight edge there I believe.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 12:59:20 AM
Everybody grazing over the senate?
Republicans have slight edge there I believe.
Senate is over. R's keep control.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:00:43 AM
Senate is over. R's keep control.
What's projection? 51? 52? 53?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:01:01 AM
What's the status of state house delegations for 2021?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:03:37 AM
What's projection? 51? 52? 53?
Think I seen +1 for D's.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yungermanchik on November 04, 2020, 01:08:52 AM
AP finally called Texas for Trump

(they've really been holding out on these calls)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 01:10:57 AM
Arizona finally reporting after more than 90 minute delay. Biden leading by 6.5%, down from 9% earlier.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 01:12:37 AM
NYT just put GA into tilting biden.
Changed from 67% to 57%

ETA
And now at 62%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:12:51 AM
Can we get rid of the fake news label?
CNN won't call AZ for Biden but Fox does.
FOX calls FL way late.
Maybe they are not playing politics?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 01:13:53 AM
Can we get rid of the fake news label?
CNN won't call AZ for Biden but Fox does.
FOX calls FL way late.
Maybe they are not playing politics?
Can we not base fake news off assessments?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 01:14:00 AM
LOL
How do you really feel? Don't hold back!
I feel like I did just a couple of hours ago :) see below

Now to my results prediction.

Trump will win OH/IA/GA/NC/FL. Margins will probably be in this order... I am afraid of AZ for some reason and I would rate them that Trump will win it but not handily.

Now all he needs to get to 270 is PA. Which he will pull off. NH/NV/WI/MI are all gonna be extra credits if he manages to pull them off...

And as I mentioned in a different thread. The reason I feel good about PA is because the same polls which are now saying Biden will win FL by 5 points are saying so on PA. We know that FL is extremely close with Trump being the favorite. The same way these polls are wrong in FL they will be wrong in PA.

See you tomorrow.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yungermanchik on November 04, 2020, 01:14:29 AM
Can we get rid of the fake news label?
CNN won't call AZ for Biden but Fox does.
FOX calls FL way late.
Maybe they are not playing politics?
What about the AP
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:15:16 AM
CNN calls AZ so it is official.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:15:49 AM
What about the AP
Sorry only watching CNN/FOX.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 04, 2020, 01:17:13 AM
CNN calls AZ so it is official.  :)
They did not call it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: beeweegee on November 04, 2020, 01:17:57 AM
CNN calls AZ so it is official.  :)
Not yet...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:18:34 AM
ABC now has called a dead even 209 to each.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: SwellCindy on November 04, 2020, 01:19:37 AM
This is one wicked race
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 01:19:50 AM
CNN finally gave TX
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:19:55 AM
CNN calls AZ so it is official.  :)
Source?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 01:20:13 AM
Can we get rid of the fake news label?
CNN won't call AZ for Biden but Fox does.
FOX calls FL way late.
Maybe they are not playing politics?

They're just playing stupid. They finally called Rhode Island at 93% reporting with a 20 point Biden lead.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:20:19 AM
Not yet...
I guess Wolf was wrong.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:20:22 AM
Amazing if this comes down to NE's 2nd district.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:20:49 AM
Source?
Wolf misspoke or I misheard.
Not seeing a checkmark.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 01:21:56 AM
Source?

Fake news, source - watching it currently
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:22:11 AM
Amazing if this comes down to NE's 2nd district.
Can it? Looks like Biden has one of them.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:22:38 AM
Fake news, source - watching it currently
You didn't hear Wolf call it?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:23:34 AM
Fox wont let up with this AZ thing
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:24:30 AM
Fox wont let up with this AZ thing
They can't at this point.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:25:09 AM
Can it? Looks like Biden has one of them.
Exactly, could prove to be the tipping point if Biden get 270 with MI and WI.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:25:34 AM
They can't at this point.
Will be really interesting if they end up with egg on their face. I do think that CNN is better at this stuff
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:25:58 AM
I'm up to about 40% chance for Trump
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 04, 2020, 01:26:25 AM
Will be really interesting if they end up with egg on their face.
will fingers point to Chris Wallace again?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:27:39 AM
Amazing if this comes down to NE's 2nd district.
Called for Biden.
This election won't be a tie.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:28:14 AM
Called for Biden.
This election won't be a tie.
That was my point.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:28:26 AM
Exactly, could prove to be the tipping point if Biden get 270 with MI and WI.
Making the electoral college even is incredibly stupid.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:28:51 AM
Making the electoral college even is incredibly stupid.
True
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:29:27 AM
Winning NE's 2nd district can't be understated. It's a huge pickup.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: shapsam on November 04, 2020, 01:29:58 AM
Trump is now ahead more than 60k votes in VA.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:30:04 AM
NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 1:27 AM
So to summarize a bit, Biden basically has three easy paths to victory remaining. In rough order of likelihood: 1) Win Arizona and NE-02, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 2) Win Pennsylvania, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 3) Win Georgia, hold Michigan and Wisconsin.

Less likely paths would involve his winning North Carolina, or other scenarios where he loses Wisconsin or Michigan but does well enough elsewhere.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 04, 2020, 01:31:02 AM
If Trump losses AZ and NV, then he needs to win NC, GA, PA, and MI to win reelection
correct?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:31:34 AM
So we have a three game series? First to win two?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:31:42 AM
If Trump losses AZ and NV, then he needs to win NC, GA, PA, and MI to win reelection
correct?
Or WI
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:32:11 AM
If Trump losses AZ and NV, then he needs to win NC, GA, PA, and MI to win reelection
correct?
Or NC, GA, PA, and WI
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 01:33:30 AM
MI & WI Are looking good for trump as of now
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:34:03 AM
MI & WI Are looking good for trump as of now
Esp MI. Even with DTW not all the way counted
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:34:20 AM
MI & WI Are looking good for trump as of now
MI why?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:35:04 AM
MI why?
He has a 300k lead now. Even with a lot of mail in not counted its a nice cusion
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:36:03 AM
He has a 300k lead now. Even with a lot of mail in not counted its a nice cusion
Massive votes not counted in D's strongholds.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:36:41 AM
Massive votes not counted in D's strongholds.
300k? I doubt that.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 01:37:15 AM
He has a 300k lead now. Even with a lot of mail in not counted its a nice cusion

I didnt analyze MI, but u gotta understand County data and see who is reporting what %...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:37:28 AM
300k? I doubt that.
Over 300k.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:37:37 AM
Winning NE's 2nd district can't be understated. It's a huge pickup.
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:38:46 AM
?s=21
If Biden loses Nate Silver is gonna look like an absolute fool. Sticking it till the end
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:39:28 AM
Did I see CNN correctly that Georgia 50-48 with 91% counted?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:40:00 AM
Did I see CNN correctly that Georgia 50-48 with 91% counted?
AP says that with 93%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 01:40:27 AM
Did I see CNN correctly that Georgia 50-48 with 91% counted?

Yes GA now Trump +2.5 at 91%. Big late swing.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 04, 2020, 01:41:03 AM
Did I see CNN correctly that Georgia 50-48 with 91% counted?
50.7 - 48.1 @93%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 01:41:09 AM
PPl that analyze PA county data say trump is on good grounds... now lets see
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 01:41:47 AM
PA looking good for Trump
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:42:02 AM
CNN Georgia 50.6-48.1 w 91% Counted
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:42:51 AM
CNN Georgia 50.6-48.1 w 91% Counted
NYT saying 64% chance of GA going to Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 04, 2020, 01:43:01 AM
Who is still counting tonight?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 01:43:09 AM
Did I see CNN correctly that Georgia 50-48 with 91% counted?
whats your updated prediction?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 01:43:45 AM
Nevada just went from Trump +50 to Biden +5
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:43:54 AM
Did I see CNN correctly that Georgia 50-48 with 91% counted?
Yes
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:44:14 AM
What's NYT PA needle at?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 01:44:50 AM
What's NYT PA needle at?

They don't have a needle for PA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:45:27 AM
whats your updated prediction?
I'm at 45% Trump, 55% Biden
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 01:45:34 AM
NYT saying 64% chance of GA going to Biden.
Keeps on swinging
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:46:46 AM
They don't have a needle for PA
Why don't they have for some states?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:47:01 AM
Another reason NE-2 was massive, if Trump loses GA he will need the entire blue wall to win:
(https://i.gyazo.com/0ba5d92192641af4f2fcfc12f6240582.png)

(https://i.gyazo.com/e90006ed830b5046e0adaeb9c3137916.png)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:48:31 AM
GA has a republican governor. If Biden wins they will probably recount.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 01:49:35 AM
Why don't they have for some states?
They only have for NC, FL, and GA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:53:24 AM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:54:18 AM
They only have for NC, FL, and GA
Of the remaining states. They had for plenty other states tonight.
Wait, they don't have FL as called already?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:56:15 AM
NYT saying 64% chance of GA going to Biden.
Biden needs 60% of the uncounted ballots. They're from areas where he got around that, and they're mail in ballots which are even more biased Biden.

The NYT is proving remarkably accurate
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:59:00 AM
?s=21

Why would a blue GA call it for Biden?

(https://i.gyazo.com/e90006ed830b5046e0adaeb9c3137916.png)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:01:00 AM
GA has a republican governor. If Biden wins they will probably recount.

Trump could lose GA, at this point...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:02:29 AM
Trump could lose GA, at this point...
You're assuming he has NC, PA, MI, and WI in the bag. He doesn't.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 02:04:42 AM
President about to speak, tune in
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 02:05:06 AM
GA has me nervous with its shrinking margins. Don't understand why no new results from AZ. Surprisingly Trump's odds on betting site have ticked up. He's suppeto speak imminently, let's see...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 04, 2020, 02:06:54 AM
the 2 remaining counties in NV are mostly Red. Can that change tilt to Trump?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 02:07:02 AM
GA has me nervous with its shrinking margins. Don't understand why no new results from AZ. Surprisingly Trump's odds on betting site have ticked up. He's suppeto speak imminently, let's see...
I'd bet on Biden at this point.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 02:07:12 AM
the 2 remaining counties in NV are mostly Red. Can that change tilt to Trump?
No.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:07:29 AM
Nate Silver still has expectations that MI and WI will be close at the end.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 02:10:22 AM
Milwaukee only has 169k absentee votes. Wisconsin looking good for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 02:11:42 AM
I'm at 45% Trump, 55% Biden
I'm with you on that.  More like 65% Biden.

Remember VA. Trump had 8 point lead and all of the sudden everything changed when D strongholds came in.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 02:13:05 AM
I'm with you on that.  More like 65% Biden.

Remember VA. Trump had 8 point lead and all of the sudden everything changed when D strongholds came in.
נעשים אויבים זה את זה ואינם זזים משם עד שנעשים אוהבים זה את זה שנאמר (במדבר כא, יד) את והב בסופה אל תקרי בסופה אלא בסופה
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 02:13:28 AM
Of the remaining states. They had for plenty other states tonight.
Wait, they don't have FL as called already?
No, those are the only states they set needles for.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: EliJelly on November 04, 2020, 02:14:17 AM
I'm with you on that.  More like 65% Biden.

Remember VA. Trump had 8 point lead and all of the sudden everything changed when D strongholds came in.
VA isn't a swing state. Was called early on.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:14:47 AM
Trump could lose GA, at this point...

50-50
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 02:15:50 AM
Betting markets basically have both candidates even.

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 02:17:57 AM
VA isn't a swing state. Was called early on.
Thats the point. And Trump was still up by 7 points with more than half in.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:18:36 AM
No, those are the only states they set needles for.
Thought I saw on others but maybe I'm mistaken.
In any case, why do they only do for some states?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ar on November 04, 2020, 02:20:11 AM
Betting markets basically have both candidates even.

That is the most accurate assessment for this election, pity it took everyone so long to realize it

Its 50/50
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 02:21:14 AM
Coming out to speak now.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 02:21:21 AM

Betting markets basically have both candidates even.

Where do you see that? I'm still seeing Trump -200, Biden +170.

What is taking so long for this speech? Not Trump's style to be so farshlept and calculated and speak at 2:30 am.

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:21:38 AM
NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 2:17 AM
One thing to keep in mind about Pennsylvania is that the mail votes were VERY blue there Democrats led 66 percent to 23 percent on them by party registration. So although Trumps lead is larger there than in Wisconsin or Michigan, Biden should also get a stronger blue shift there.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: EliJelly on November 04, 2020, 02:22:27 AM
Thats the point. And Trump was still up by 7 points with more than half in.
And was expected to change, the reason why it's was called, so no indication for swing states.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:24:08 AM
No.
Looks like a 2016 repeat.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 02:24:29 AM
Trump: we won GA ;D
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:24:38 AM
Trump says he's got GA in the bag, and "likely" NC.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 02:27:32 AM
He's already talked longer than Biden, who's surely fast asleep at this point.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 02:31:30 AM
Frankly we did win this election.

As far as I'm concerned we already have won this

Wow!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 02:31:57 AM
Great again again
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:32:08 AM
TRUMP IS TRUMP
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 02:32:36 AM
Trump: We won, a major fraud is going on against our nation.

Who could have seen this coming?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:33:02 AM
Of course he doesn't want any more votes counted, being he's up in almost every state that's not called yet, lol.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 02:34:09 AM
Where is everyone getting this is 50-50 odds? Trump is currently 2-1 favorite.

2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
1   Donald Trump      -210   
2   Joe Biden      +180   
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 02:35:39 AM
There will be major egg on Nate's face if either goes to Trump:

(https://i.gyazo.com/77b039ee219dc34ee4d6f917d06688c1.png)
(https://i.gyazo.com/b363ca3a55ddf8ed8551e954995bdaaa.png)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 02:36:16 AM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 02:37:22 AM
There will be major egg on Nate's face if either goes to Trump:

There is already plenty of egg
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:37:37 AM

+1
He needs to feed his base.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 02:39:14 AM
+1
He needs to feed his base.
Who is his base?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:39:59 AM

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Ergel on November 04, 2020, 02:40:03 AM
+1
He needs to feed his base.
No one needs to feed anyone at this point. The polls are closed. He will never be subject to another vote from the public
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 02:40:49 AM
No one needs to feed anyone at this point. The polls are closed. He will never be subject to another vote from the public
He can be in 2024
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 02:41:39 AM
From Twitter. Very true.

If Rs hold the Senate, which looks increasingly likely, the risk of ruin that existed before tonight goes to ~0%, and the outcome of the presidential election therefore becomes far less important.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Ergel on November 04, 2020, 02:41:45 AM
He can be in 2024
Oh come on. He's not running in 2024
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 02:42:19 AM
There is already plenty of egg
Nothing that he labeled "clearly favored" has gone wrong so far.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 02:42:24 AM
There will be major egg on Nate's face if either goes to Trump:
These are total insane even before the election. I was pointing this out before. He is saying almost a 20:1 shot. THAT IS CRAZY!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ar on November 04, 2020, 02:42:30 AM
Trump looked mad, and unhappy. Predictable

Didnt see Jared there- perhaps he is busy with lawyers on the phone?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:43:24 AM
Im calling a LID for the night. GN Everyone..
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ar on November 04, 2020, 02:43:34 AM
From Twitter. Very true.

If Rs hold the Senate, which looks increasingly likely, the risk of ruin that existed before tonight goes to ~0%, and the outcome of the presidential election therefore becomes far less important.

Unless Collins and Romney caucus with the D's as per their record
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 02:43:54 AM
Oh come on. He's not running in 2024
I'm far from certain of that
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ar on November 04, 2020, 02:44:08 AM
Nothing that he labeled "clearly favored" has gone wrong so far.

Polls + Nate are full of eggs already
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 02:44:31 AM
Can Biden give some republican senators cabinet positions to get democrat senators instead?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 02:44:38 AM
Im calling a LID for the night. GN Everyone..
Sleep tight.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 02:51:24 AM
CNN: Highly unlikely that Biden wins PA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 02:52:27 AM
Who is his base?

The Poles
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:52:32 AM
Nothing that he labeled "clearly favored" has gone wrong so far.
What about in '16?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 04, 2020, 02:53:19 AM
CNN: Highly unlikely that Biden wins
FTFY  :P
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 04, 2020, 02:54:14 AM
now that Trump declared winner, we can change the thread title to "who WON the 2020 election".
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 02:55:55 AM

Can Biden give some republican senators cabinet positions to get democrat senators instead?


If this is a serious question, the answer is no, you can't force someone to join your Cabinet. There are even potential issues with Warren joining a Biden Cabinet because the governor of MA who appoints the replacement is R and the seat would flip out until a special election.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 04, 2020, 02:56:39 AM
now that Trump declared winner, we can change the thread title to "who WON the 2020 election".
Well actually although trump won, Biden is still on the path to victory... we may just have 2 presidents... you never know....
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 04, 2020, 02:57:30 AM
Google already gave Arizona to Biden...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 02:58:11 AM
What about in '16?
Nothing clearly favored/less than 10% chance.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 02:58:20 AM
Well actually although trump won, Biden is still on the path to victory... we may just have 2 presidents... you never know....

He can talk to his friend Bibi about a power-sharing coalition lol
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 02:58:38 AM
now that Trump declared winner, we can change the thread title to "who WON the 2020 election".
Or how about "The laughing stock of the world". We are leaders of democracy and this idiot just made a farce out of it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:59:22 AM
Google already gave Arizona to Biden...
Yup. That's AP. ABC yet to call it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 04, 2020, 03:00:50 AM
He can talk to his friend Bibi about a power-sharing coalition lol
It wouldnt work... every time trump signs an executive order Biden will be like CKmon man...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 04, 2020, 03:02:00 AM
Yup. That's AP. ABC yet to call it.
But fox called it already... :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 03:03:32 AM
But fox called it already... :)
Fox called everything very early. Don't think they've gotten anything wrong yet, but still not sure it's the right move. It's supposed to be like 99.9% when they call it, and Fox doesn't play by those rules.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 04, 2020, 03:03:38 AM
He can talk to his friend Bibi about a power-sharing coalition lol
Trump will take the first 2 years and if Biden is still all there and he remembers about the deal he can get the next 2 years...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 03:09:34 AM
Fox viewers have nowhere else to go. If they are the first to call a state, they can boast and get more viewers. If theyre wrong, their base aint going anywhere. They lost the last shred of credibility already when Tucker Carlsons stolen documents turned into a disk on key turned into nothing at all.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 03:12:21 AM
Nothing clearly favored/less than 10% chance.

What's odd is that you sent a screenshot showing WI and MI as heavily favored, but meanwhile ABC shows pre-election forecasts from 538 split into 5 categories (toss up, leaning each way, heavy each way), and WI and MI show as leaning democrat, not solid democrat.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:13:12 AM
They lost the last shred of credibility already when Tucker Carlsons stolen documents turned into a disk on key turned into nothing at all.
What ever happen to that?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 04, 2020, 03:15:38 AM
I think both sides are going to sleep tonight nervous and pissed. >:(
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 03:25:50 AM
Checking out TX now. Trump actually won it by about 7 points.   Gives me some comfort on where TX is heading 2024
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 03:33:57 AM
NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 3:30 AM
Some Wisconsin math: Trump leads by 119,000 votes there currently. But there are reported 211,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted in Milwaukee County, which are likely to be very blue. If Biden won them 3:1, it would make the state very close.

Beyond that, whats outstanding is a bit less clear. The city of Green Bay has yet to report results, which should be blue-ish but its certainly no Madison or Milwaukee.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 03:35:28 AM
Unless Collins and Romney caucus with the D's as per their record
Well I don't care about those kind of votes. Im talking about confirming Judicial nominees, packing the supreme court, adding senate seats etc.... We are safe there.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 03:36:34 AM
NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 3:30 AM
Some Wisconsin math: Trump leads by 119,000 votes there currently. But there are reported 211,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted in Milwaukee County, which are likely to be very blue. If Biden won them 3:1, it would make the state very close.

Beyond that, whats outstanding is a bit less clear. The city of Green Bay has yet to report results, which should be blue-ish but its certainly no Madison or Milwaukee.
in other states biden isnt winning 3:1 absentee
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 03:41:30 AM
in other states biden isnt winning 3:1 absentee
Well, that doesn't really mean anything. It's all specific to the location obviously.

From 2016:
Milwaukee County
Clinton 66.4%   
Trump 29.0%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 03:44:09 AM
Well, that doesn't really mean anything. It's all specific to the location obviously.

From 2016:
Milwaukee County
Clinton 66.4%   
Trump 29.0%
isnt that closer to 2:1  for every 2 clinton votes 1 trump vote
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 03:45:32 AM
isnt that closer to 2:1  for every 2 clinton votes 1 trump vote
Yup. Was just pointing out that you need to look at county specific data, not general absentee averages.
But after looking at those numbers, I'd think Trump can likely maintain his edge in WI.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 03:58:44 AM
So, not expecting anything more called until later today. Looking through 4 different sites, they all have Trump with 213 electorates. They vary when it comes to Biden.
AP and Fox: 238 - everything called besides: AK, NV, WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, and 1 of ME
ABC: 221 - same as AP and Fox, except didn't yet call for Biden: HI, AZ, and 2 more of ME (3 total uncalled from ME)
CNN: 220 - same as ABC, except didn't yet call for Biden: 1 more in ME (so all 4 uncalled in ME)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 04:01:23 AM
RCP adjusted GA to show only 85% counted. +2.2% Trump. I think they dont really know how many ballots left. Luckily nobody actually published a headline more votes suddenly appear in GA


What ever happen to that?
Tucker ended up saying its about Hunters personal life and he doesnt want to hurt him. In the beginning he claimed its a massive expose.

In Hebrew we say ההר שהוליד עכבר

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 04:06:50 AM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 04:10:31 AM
That is the most accurate assessment for this election, pity it took everyone so long to realize it

Its 50/50

Its 50/50 because nobody alive today has ever seen such turnout, add the business with mail in ballots and the situation is unprecedented. Nobody has a handle on what to expect from the remaining uncounted ballots in swing states.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 04:17:20 AM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 04:29:06 AM
I don't know who this guy is but it doesn't seem like WI still has 700k out.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 04, 2020, 04:29:48 AM
big, if true.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zale on November 04, 2020, 04:33:46 AM
Why couldnt all votes, including most mail ballots be counted by Nov 3?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 04:43:38 AM
?s=21
Why couldnt all votes, including most mail ballots be counted by Nov 3?
Against the law to start counting until the polls close in some states. I guess the logic is leaked data can influence the vote
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 04:45:43 AM
Wow, Biden did take the lead in WI. If the remaining 5% is still mostly absentee, etc. you have to think he'll maintain (and build upon) this lead.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on November 04, 2020, 04:58:22 AM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 05:16:42 AM
?s=24
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 05:44:53 AM
Who remembers the ABC news poll from last week showing Biden up 17 points in Wis.....

At this point Wis looks grim for Trump and same for MI. Trump's path now will probably go thru PA and NV which just became tight.  I guess everything is on the table still but with most ballots out in Wis seem to be early vote they tend to go biden
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 05:47:19 AM
Nevada is mostly missing mail in ballots too. I think its pretty much over. 90% for Biden. May be a bunch of recounts
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 05:51:05 AM
In theory Trump can win without WI and PA if he takes GA MI NC NV.

Even winning PA wouldn't make up for losing GA and NV though. Atlanta is what this comes down to.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 06:02:30 AM
Is AZ a done deal? Trump seems to have really narrowed lead according to AP count. Last 10% skewed very heavily Trump, with 15% left. What's left to be counted there?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 04, 2020, 06:16:19 AM
Wisconsin pretty much tied, with 5% of the vote left. Michigan still skewed in Trump's favor with 15% of the vote left. Arizona still skewed in Biden's favor, but Trump is closing in, probably not enough to close the gap. PA still has a significant amount of the vote not counted. GA still seems to be going to Trump. NC is still in Trump's favor and the vote is almost totally counted. Comes down to individual counties now.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 04, 2020, 06:20:07 AM
Anyone know why our voting system is like 1950's?  Why can't they figure out a better way?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 06:25:24 AM
Anyone know why our voting system is like 1950's?  Why can't they figure out a better way?

Meaning fully computerized, fingerprint verification, anyone can vote at any polling site in country, results updated in real time to database and reported at close? No paper trail and possibility of hacking makes it a dangerous prospect for some.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 04, 2020, 06:43:37 AM
Meaning fully computerized, fingerprint verification, anyone can vote at any polling site in country, results updated in real time to database and reported at close? No paper trail and possibility of hacking makes it a dangerous prospect for some.
Because a paper trail heading nowhere or paper trail that can end up in the garbage is better?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yesitsme on November 04, 2020, 07:07:02 AM
Anyone know why our voting system is like 1950's?  Why can't they figure out a better way?
Its very difficult to train dead body's to vote with finger prints
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 07:08:59 AM
The betting odds have flipped, with Biden now -200 favorite,  not looking good.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 07:11:54 AM
It's not much consolation, but an extremely narrow win by Biden gives him no claim of a mandate, nor will Mitch McConnell majority leader let him get much of anything done.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 07:18:16 AM
Ye Trump seams toast. He will need a lot of things to turn around for him to have a shot.

In any case, the good part of this election night is that I have davened ותיקין for the first time in a long time...

My final thought is that because Trump is loosing so narrowly there will be a lot of chaos...I don't see this finishing smoothly any time soon.. I hope I'm wrong
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 04, 2020, 07:21:48 AM
Ye Trump seams toast. He will need a lot of things to turn around for him to have a shot.

In any case, the good part of this election night is that I have davened ותיקין for the first time in a long time...

My final thought is that because Trump is loosing so narrowly there will be a lot of chaos...I don't see this finishing smoothly any time soon.. I hope I'm wrong
I said all along that this ends in court. PA might be the tie breaker and alot of stuff going on there
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 07:37:46 AM
Biden up to -300, #s looking increasingly insurmountable for him in MI and WI, which combined with AZ and NE2 would do it for him, and that's without PA and GA which could also still go his way. The question is how Trump responds to this.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Luvisrael on November 04, 2020, 07:40:43 AM
How do different networks have different electoral vote numbers?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 04, 2020, 07:41:45 AM
Does trump have any hope in Arizona?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 07:56:00 AM
The question is how Trump responds to this.
Weeks of recounting and court?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 07:56:35 AM
Does trump have any hope in Arizona?
nah  winning GA Losing MI & WI  looking good for biden
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 07:57:56 AM
Weeks of recounting and court?
what will be the argument to supreme court?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:05:17 AM
***BOMBSHELL ALERT***

U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
2   Joe Biden      -370   
1   Donald Trump   +300   
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:06:11 AM
what will be the argument to supreme court?
I put you there.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 08:06:32 AM
what will be the argument to supreme court?
About forcing recounts and what votes count and which votes don't count.

For example PA is accepting mail-in ballots tat arrive up to 3 days after the election. Republicans already challenged this as unconstitutional.

And many many more arguments like that in most states.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 04, 2020, 08:07:26 AM
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=120917.0
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Ergel on November 04, 2020, 08:07:42 AM
***BOMBSHELL ALERT***

U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
2   Joe Biden      -370   
1   Donald Trump   +300   
How come the media isn't reporting this yet? Everyone is so conservative in their projections. Seems pretty clear the race is over, why isn't anyone at least hinting to that?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:09:37 AM
How come the media isn't reporting this yet? Everyone is so conservative in their projections. Seems pretty clear the race is over, why isn't anyone at least hinting to that?
Because I am fair and balanced?  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 08:11:52 AM
How come the media isn't reporting this yet? Everyone is so conservative in their projections. Seems pretty clear the race is over, why isn't anyone at least hinting to that?
Not saying whether it's over or not.

But if the Media did know it was over, and called it, viewership would plummet and they'd lose many millions in ad revenue today, and possibly the coming weeks.

Don't except any early calls on this election from the media, they will milk this for all it's worth.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Pad18 on November 04, 2020, 08:13:38 AM
Keep it like that :)

(https://i.postimg.cc/pXmp3B8t/Screenshot-20201104-081125.png) (https://postimg.cc/hfqDdTpC)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 08:21:41 AM
Keep it like that :)

(https://i.postimg.cc/pXmp3B8t/Screenshot-20201104-081125.png) (https://postimg.cc/hfqDdTpC)
MI is absentee ballots so big chances for biden
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 04, 2020, 08:23:41 AM
Good morning.

What did I miss?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 08:25:06 AM
Maybe it deserves its own thread.

"How Will The Biden Presidency Look Like"

Trump, at least had both houses with him for the first 2 years and was able to pass massive tax cuts. For all of Bidens talk about reversing it he's got no chance. The R senate will stand in his way for anything he will want to get done. He's got no chance in getting anything done in the next at least 2 years. Our nation will just get more divided.

Anyone see a different picture?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:28:04 AM
Not saying whether it's over or not.

But if the Media did know it was over, and called it, viewership would plummet and they'd lose many millions in ad revenue today, and possibly the coming weeks.

Don't except any early calls on this election from the media, they will milk this for all it's worth.
Don't you think the left leaning networks would love to announce Biden is the winner?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 08:31:27 AM
Don't you think the left leaning networks would love to announce Biden is the winner?
Follow the money. Always follow the money.

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 08:32:34 AM
Does Trump have a good chance to win Nevada?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:34:40 AM
Does Trump have a good chance to win Nevada?
If you feel mail in votes favor him, yes.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:35:20 AM
Follow the money. Always follow the money.
Money says Biden WON!!!  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 08:37:54 AM
Money says Biden likely WON!!!  :)
FTFY, but I was obviously talking about MSM ad revenue money.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:52:28 AM
Might be time to start cashing out your bets. Buy it out for 50 cents on the dollar?
You were saying?  :)
@S209
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 04, 2020, 08:53:14 AM
You were saying?  :)
@S209

Literally $.50 on the $1 he bet.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 08:53:21 AM
You were saying?  :)
@S209
75 cents?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:56:13 AM
Lets remember there is a massive amount of mail in votes being hid in all these USPS P&DC's. They need to be found and counted!!! Still time in some of these states.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 08:58:45 AM
Lets remember there is a massive amount of mail in votes being hid in all these USPS P&DC's. They needed to be found and counted!!! Still time in some of these states.
for sure biden wins
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 09:01:37 AM
Any of the battleground states have a lot of provisional votes? For example in NJ the only in-person voting was done provisionally. Otherwise seems like trump has no shot.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 09:04:23 AM
Biden inches ahead in MI
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 09:10:54 AM
At this point, biden is poised to win off the cuff, but T can fight for some recounts, thus invaliding many mail in ballots which can give him a lead.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 09:14:59 AM
And just like that, Biden will win in a less than tight race
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 09:18:33 AM
When will trump concede?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 09:18:53 AM
Senate and SCOTUS Republican/conservative, Presidency and House Democrat. Seems like a very good thing for the country.
When will trump concede?
LOL. He will fight until the bitter end. Probably close to January.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 09:23:48 AM
He will fight until the bitter end. Probably close to January.

January 2022 or 2023?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 09:31:22 AM
No tweets, is that a good sign he might be accepting reality?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 09:37:37 AM
No tweets, is that a good sign he might be accepting reality?

Doubtful. Hes probably strategizing and better shut up than say the wrong thing and limit his options.

Twitter wont let him get away with Tweeting falsehood, theyll flag it like theyve done to his first attempt at that earlier this morning.

This isnt the outcome I hope for, but knowing Trump he wont go down without a fight and an opportunity to save face (in his own mind anyway) by claiming that fraud and the legal system cheated him of his rightfully earned win. The sh*tshow will go on and the media will eat it up.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 04, 2020, 09:37:44 AM
No tweets, is that a good sign he might be accepting reality?

No, he's just busy with the lawyers.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 09:40:15 AM
No, he's just busy with the lawyers.

Are these states intentionally stalling to retain the status quo, or is it reasonable to wait until Friday to hear back from these six states?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 09:42:09 AM
January 2022 or 2023?
Depends if theres a vaccine ;)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 04, 2020, 09:43:39 AM
Are these states intentionally stalling to retain the status quo, or is it reasonable to wait until Friday to hear back from these six states?

I think it's reasonable. They're going to end up having to pay for lawsuits, so they may as well take their time to get their ducks in a row.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: how on November 04, 2020, 09:44:02 AM
If Trump takes Nevada we wend up Tied?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 04, 2020, 09:44:06 AM
Depends if theres a vaccine ;)
Covid ended last night.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 04, 2020, 09:45:59 AM
If Trump takes Nevada we wend up Tied?

No ties
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 09:50:54 AM
If Trump takes Nevada we wend up Tied?
trump isnt taking NV
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 09:54:45 AM
No tweets, is that a good sign he might be accepting reality?
He still has a chance if he recounts the mail in votes in MI, WI, AZ, NV and PA.

As discussed here they are ripe for fraud and with a small B margin, T can possibly turn the tables.

This can take a long time.   

Its all down to mail in votes, IMHO, the dems totally changed the playing field by doing so.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on November 04, 2020, 09:54:51 AM
Can anyone explain how CA - a deep blue state when it comes to the party tickets, votes against labor laws - in a way one would expect from a Republican-leaning state?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 09:55:52 AM
Now AZ has some saying


?s=20
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 09:56:20 AM
He still has a chance if he recounts the mail in votes in MI, WI, AZ, NV and PA.

As discussed here they are ripe for fraud and with a small B margin, T can possibly turn the tables.

This can take a long time.   

Its all down to mail in votes, IMHO, the dems totally changed the playing field by doing so.
at this point it looks like biden will win by 10000s of votes  recount wont help
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 04, 2020, 09:56:25 AM
He still has a chance if he recounts the mail in votes in MI, WI, AZ, NV and PA.

As discussed here they are ripe for fraud and with a small B margin, T can possibly turn the tables.

This can take a long time.   

Its all down to mail in votes, IMHO, the dems totally changed the playing field by doing so.
Yup desperate times call for desperate measures - democrats
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on November 04, 2020, 09:56:41 AM
He still has a chance if he recounts the mail in votes in MI, WI, AZ, NV and PA.

As discussed here they are ripe for fraud and with a small B margin, T can possibly turn the tables.

This can take a long time.   

Its all down to mail in votes, IMHO, the dems totally changed the playing field by doing so.

So the bottom line is that the election is decided by a bunch of Quixotic idiots who not only determine the final outcome, but also heavily contribute to the agonizing process until the final outcome is decided.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 09:57:31 AM
Can anyone explain how CA - a deep blue state when it comes to the party tickets, votes against labor laws - in a way one would expect from a Republican-leaning state?

You mean the gig economy thing? Probably a lot of people in Cali involved with these companies (as employees, gig employees, and/or customers) and know that its bad for the business.

It basically sets the precedent that self-employed gig people become subject to labor-union-type interests.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 09:59:18 AM
Can anyone explain how CA - a deep blue state when it comes to the party tickets, votes against labor laws - in a way one would expect from a Republican-leaning state?
Uber drivers and users didn't want to lose it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 09:59:36 AM
Yup desperate times call for desperate measures - democrats
It's desperate for both sides...

There can be double votes, votes of dead.... there is a huge potential for major shifts [in %... term] if a recount is warranted in some states.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 10:00:21 AM
Uber drivers and users didn't want to lose it.
It was impossible to take a ride without seeing UBER... PR,  the apps had the most free advertising.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 10:00:44 AM
AZ going to Biden is McCain's final revenge against the draft dodger in chief.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 10:01:02 AM
It's desperate for both sides...

There can be double votes, votes of dead.... there is a huge potential for major shifts [in %... term] if a recount is warranted in some states.

Lets say theres a recount, does that automatically mean all these things you mentioned would be checked? Would they be stipulated by the party insisting on recount?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 10:01:38 AM
AZ going to Biden is McCain's final revenge against the draft dodger in chief.

Posthumous revenge/victory.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 10:02:47 AM
AZ going to Biden is McCain's final revenge against the draft dodger in chief.
That would be all Trumps fault, he'll have only himself to blame.
Lets say theres a recount, does that automatically mean all these things you mentioned would be checked? Would they be stipulated by the party insisting on recount?
Thats what they fight over.

This can take a long time...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 10:11:51 AM
AZ going to Biden is McCain's final revenge against the draft dodger in chief.
Thats my line.  >:(
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 10:12:16 AM
Its all down to mail in votes, IMHO, the dems totally changed the playing field by doing so.
What does this mean? By doing what?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 10:14:34 AM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 10:17:30 AM
What does this mean? By doing what?
By allowing mail in votes, thus leaving room for fraud and stronger Dem votes.

In MI, I believe biden got 130>3k in a mail voter data dump, doesn't make sense even in Dms best case scenario, so some really weird stuff and I think it'll be challenged.

Overall Biden comes out better at the end of the day, but T can fight back and possibly try and turn that around.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Kobe Bryant on November 04, 2020, 10:18:32 AM
Can anyone explain how CA - a deep blue state when it comes to the party tickets, votes against labor laws - in a way one would expect from a Republican-leaning state?

They poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Prop 22. It was impossible to walk a few blocks in CA without seeing a Billboard or turn on the TV or streaming platforms without seeing an ad.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 04, 2020, 10:26:58 AM
Can anyone explain how CA - a deep blue state when it comes to the party tickets, votes against labor laws - in a way one would expect from a Republican-leaning state?

Typical crony capitalism. Exempts those with political power from rules that those with less influence to suffer.

They did vote against a proposition that would allow the State to discriminate (pushed by the totally non racist Democrats), so at least there is some sanity...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 10:29:03 AM
Will Jo Jorgensen prove to be the spoiler?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 04, 2020, 10:30:02 AM
Will Jo Jorgensen prove to be the spoiler?
For Trump?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 10:31:38 AM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 10:34:50 AM
Big change from >98% reported to 86%

The New York Times 4m ago
Because of an error in an Edison Research data feed of results, the estimate of the counted vote in Arizona displaying on maps and tables is too high. The actual estimate is that 86% of the vote has been counted. :)

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ar on November 04, 2020, 10:38:15 AM
How come its taking AZ so long to count in person votes?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yeshivabucher on November 04, 2020, 10:51:38 AM
underrated  if trump flips AZ and hold PA and GA he wins though im definitly not betting on it
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 10:52:26 AM
By allowing mail in votes, thus leaving room for fraud and stronger Dem votes.
This is a huge misrepresentation. They didn't 'allow' mail in votes. Every single state had mail in voting in some shape or form for many years. Some were more restrictive and/or encouraged than others.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Shmulie on November 04, 2020, 10:52:35 AM
Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 10:55:59 AM
I can't see this as anything other than saving face. He has to know, or at least his administration has to know, that this was 100% expected, since they discouraged mail-in, and that's what was being added overnight.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 10:59:16 AM
This is a huge misrepresentation. They didn't 'allow' mail in votes. Every single state had mail in voting in some shape or form for many years. Some were more restrictive and/or encouraged than others.
That would be right if they are requested without invitation, like so many have done for years.

But, sending out enmass, forms or ballots , leaves room for alot of  fraud. Its just a simple fact...

Now, I'm not saying biden didn't win those states but for those looking for room to call biden illegitimate, they have it. Just like Russia and trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 04, 2020, 11:00:56 AM
This is a huge misrepresentation. They didn't 'allow' mail in votes. Every single state had mail in voting in some shape or form for many years. Some were more restrictive and/or encouraged than others.
The big difference is them sending them out unsolicited. I received 7 ballots for 4 eligible voters in my house. I got for 2 people not alive and 1 who has been living in a different state for 10 years.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 11:06:30 AM
Stock market up again on a projected Biden win. So much for Trumps BS!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 04, 2020, 11:06:40 AM
Why is the results in some of these states talking so long? When can we expect them to finish counting?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 11:07:04 AM
I can't see this as anything other than saving face. He has to know, or at least his administration has to know, that this was 100% expected, since they discouraged mail-in, and that's what was being added overnight.

Yup. 65% of the country voted early. Calling those "mysteriously appearing ballots" is absurd. The mail in faction was not a marginal segment as it was in other elections, and everyone knew that.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 11:07:33 AM
C/p WI has more votes cast the voters  anyone heard this?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 11:08:30 AM
C/p WI has more votes cast the voters  anyone heard this?
Yes at the kool-aid rally.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 11:09:11 AM
Biden will get more votes than anyone in history!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Toasted on November 04, 2020, 11:09:51 AM

(https://i.postimg.cc/4dpzhDRb/20201104-110929.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/ZBK9GDRC)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Let3 on November 04, 2020, 11:10:18 AM
(https://i.postimg.cc/Y04dG9fd/01-C84-D72-01-A5-4-B8-D-A45-C-D18-A00-EBCDC3.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/JHLNSRFX)

(https://i.postimg.cc/prgqDHsR/6-E99-D4-A0-DDD5-498-D-93-CD-D2-CECB91-D336.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/fSfcN64r)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 04, 2020, 11:10:36 AM
C/p WI has more votes cast the voters  anyone heard this?
Not true

https://elections.wi.gov/node/7220

They have 3.6million registered and 3.2m votes
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 11:10:55 AM
Stock market up again on a projected Biden + Senate R win.
FTFY

This was ideal for Wall Street.

Tax cuts are here to stay for now and a more predictable person as POTUS.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 11:12:37 AM
FTFY
No need to fix anything with your spin. Trump made the comments about Biden.
I do appreciate you leaving off the second part to fit your spin.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 11:14:37 AM
No need to fix anything with your spin. Trump made the comments about Biden.
I do appreciate you leaving off the second part to fit your spin.  :)
I just wasn't commenting on the 2nd part... Not everyone is obsessed with anti-Trump told ya so statements.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 11:16:38 AM
I just wasn't commenting on the 2nd part...
We know and that is why I said spin.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 11:17:03 AM
This was ideal for Wall Street.

Tax cuts are here to stay for now and a more predictable person as POTUS.
+1.
Biden as POTUS and R senate was Wall Street's dream scenario.
This has nothing to do with a Biden win, which was already priced in.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Zevwolf on November 04, 2020, 11:17:34 AM
Biden will get more votes than anyone in history!!!
Trump will properly too.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 11:19:28 AM
Actually, many forecasters said that a split (D Pres, R Senate) would not be good for the market, which was counting on an all-D government to launch a massive bailout and recovery that McConnell will never agree to. So obviously happy about the tax ramifications, but the short-term stimulus they were banking on is now unlikely.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 11:20:15 AM
+1.
Biden as POTUS and R senate was Wall Street's dream scenario.
This has nothing to do with a Biden win, which was already priced in.
+1 a stable president and no radical house votes.

Now look at this

MI can get interesting

Invalid Tweet ID
If dems will find votes so can Rs...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 11:21:36 AM
These twitter fights!!


Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 11:22:49 AM
Can Biden give some republican senators cabinet positions to get democrat senators instead?
Anybody know?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 11:23:37 AM
+1.
Biden as POTUS and R senate was Wall Street's dream scenario.
This has nothing to do with a Biden win, which was already priced in.
So when the market was going up last couple of days it was based on a Biden win and R senate? I have a bridge to sell you.  :)

The market the last few days (up/down) was 99% based on the virus and how it effects the economy!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 11:25:24 AM
That would be right if they are requested without invitation, like so many have done for years.

But, sending out enmass, forms or ballots , leaves room for alot of  fraud. Its just a simple fact...

Now, I'm not saying biden didn't win those states but for those looking for room to call biden illegitimate, they have it. Just like Russia and trump.
So first of all, this is not a new thing - almost a quarter of all votes in 2016 were cast by mail. Most of the states in play did not change anything for this election. Whatever rules they had before for mail-in were kept intact. This includes AZ, FL, GA, OH, and TX. WI, MI, and NV did send ballots to all registered voters, while PA didn't, but enacted other measures to encourage and/or effectively process mail-in voting.

Second of all, every state has processes for validating/verifying mail-in votes - the same way they have processes for validating/verifying any vote. If there is widespread (that part is key, since small scale fraud is likely to occur but unlikely to ever swing results) fraud, it will be hard to cover up.

The big difference is them sending them out unsolicited. I received 7 ballots for 4 eligible voters in my house. I got for 2 people not alive and 1 who has been living in a different state for 10 years.
You're in NJ, it's not very relevant. And if you're trying to show that the process is flawed, receiving ballots you shouldn't have, and those ballots being counted are not the same thing.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 11:26:38 AM
Anybody know?
Couldn't they just not accept?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 11:27:07 AM
Actually, many forecasters said that a split (D Pres, R Senate) would not be good for the market, which was counting on an all-D government to launch a massive bailout and recovery that McConnell will never agree to. So obviously happy about the tax ramifications, but the short-term stimulus they were banking on is now unlikely.
The senate won't be able to resist spending money. Worst case, Biden can find two shaky republicans and give their states a trillion, even better for WS. Senate negotiations always end the same way - you can have your 500 if I can have my 400. Especially in an era with no apparent consequences to printing money
Couldn't they just not accept?
I mean if the senators want to accept

Mitt Romney won't turn down Secretary of State, though he's from UT with a R governor.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 04, 2020, 11:31:15 AM
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/philadelphia-officials-unclear-how-long-vote-counting-will-take

"At least until this time tomorrow."
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 04, 2020, 11:31:52 AM
We know and that is why I said spin.

You are spinning so fast and furious that it looks to you like the whole world is spinning.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 11:32:11 AM
R Senators who are not from ultra-red states with R governors will not be stupid enough to abandon their seats for a Biden Cabinet position, and if they even consider the offer, McConnell will take of it in no time. And R senators from ultra-red states with R governors are not the type of R's that Biden would ever consider putting in his administration.

There's even concern about Elizabeth Warren joining his Cabinet because the governor of MA is R and would appoint her replacement until a special election. Assuming R's hold the Senate, this may not be such a concern, as it would only be temporary, and a D will certainly win a MA special election (unless it's Scott Brown??).
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 11:34:32 AM
R Senators who are not from ultra-red states with R governors will not be stupid enough to abandon their seats for a Biden Cabinet position, and if they even consider the offer, McConnell will take of it in no time. And R senators from ultra-red states with R governors are not the type of R's that Biden would ever consider putting in his administration.

There's even concern about Elizabeth Warren joining his Cabinet because the governor of MA is R and would appoint her replacement until a special election. Assuming R's hold the Senate, this may not be such a concern, as it would only be temporary, and a D will certainly win a MA special election (unless it's Scott Brown??).
Biden will probably (hopefully) be happy to have a solid excuse not to hire Warren
How can McConnell do anything?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 04, 2020, 11:36:13 AM

You're in NJ, it's not very relevant. And if you're trying to show that the process is flawed, receiving ballots you shouldn't have, and those ballots being counted are not the same thing.

Not the same thing but makes it very easy. What odds would you place on them not being counted had I sent them in? I would place it at 1% or below.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 11:43:57 AM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 11:44:13 AM
How can McConnell do anything?

McConnell is one of the most quietly savvy and powerful people in DC. True he can't physically prevent another Senator from taking a job, but if you look at how he's managed to hold his disparate caucus together on many high-profile issues, it's clear that what he wants, he gets. And he's not taking any chances of his narrow majority shrinking in any way.

Not to mention, any Senator considering leaving only has to look at what happened to Jeff Sessions and decide to keep his job security and reputation for his own sake.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 11:46:59 AM
The senate won't be able to resist spending money. Worst case, Biden can find two shaky republicans and give their states a trillion, even better for WS. Senate negotiations always end the same way - you can have your 500 if I can have my 400. Especially in an era with no apparent consequences to printing money I mean if the senators want to accept

Mitt Romney won't turn down Secretary of State, though he's from UT with a R governor.
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 11:49:58 AM
?s=21
Jorgensen has twice that. Spoiler indeed.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 04, 2020, 11:50:27 AM

Not to mention, any Senator considering leaving only has to look at what happened to Jeff Sessions and decide to keep his job security and reputation for his own sake.
Biden is not Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 04, 2020, 11:51:03 AM
Jorgensen has twice that. Spoiler indeed.
If they would have been split differently than the rest.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 11:52:17 AM
Biden is not Trump.
+1000
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 04, 2020, 11:53:26 AM
+1000

I think we can get unanimous consent on that one!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 11:55:16 AM
Not the same thing but makes it very easy. What odds would you place on them not being counted had I sent them in? I would place it at 1% or below.
So 2 things here. First of all, 1% is nuts. There are processes in place for the double ballot issue. Deceased may be an issue, but again, it would take a coordinated effort of mailing those ballots in to make any difference. And studies of that issue show that - just like in your case - instances of those ballots actually being sent in are exceedingly rare.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 11:55:18 AM

Based on this its tight for both
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 11:56:02 AM
What's this 1/2 on NYT site?

(https://i.postimg.cc/mrfSVcZ5/Screen-Shot-2020-11-04-at-11-54-38-AM.png) (https://postimg.cc/Snd8xxM6)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 12:03:19 PM
What's this 1/2 on NYT site?

(https://i.postimg.cc/mrfSVcZ5/Screen-Shot-2020-11-04-at-11-54-38-AM.png) (https://postimg.cc/Snd8xxM6)


Expect results on January 2nd 😂

/s
ETA: perhaps it means 1-2 days
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 12:05:32 PM
What's this 1/2 on NYT site?

(https://i.postimg.cc/mrfSVcZ5/Screen-Shot-2020-11-04-at-11-54-38-AM.png) (https://postimg.cc/Snd8xxM6)
Something weird on you end. That 1/2 shows up as > when I go to the actual site.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 04, 2020, 12:06:08 PM
There's one huge story that I didn't see here on DDF, nor on the media:

The Dems were projected to pick up between 5 and 25 seats in the House. Currently, it seems like the REPUBLICANS will pick up about 5 seats!!

This can have a drastic impact on Pelosi's chances of maintaining here position as speaker. Firstly, she failed to carry her party to victory. Secondly, she lost some key votes she needs for speakership. AOC and her squad will not vote for her, so it's unclear if she has enough votes to keep the podium.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 12:08:22 PM

(https://i.postimg.cc/vBDdvvpJ/Whats-App-Image-2020-11-04-at-12-06-41-PM.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 12:19:35 PM
There's one huge story that I didn't see here on DDF, nor on the media:

The Dems were projected to pick up between 5 and 25 seats in the House. Currently, it seems like the REPUBLICANS will pick up about 5 seats!!

This can have a drastic impact on Pelosi's chances of maintaining here position as speaker. Firstly, she failed to carry her party to victory. Secondly, she lost some key votes she needs for speakership. AOC and her squad will not vote for her, so it's unclear if she has enough votes to keep the podium.

So clueless about this. What will 2021 D/R house numbers look like after these results?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 04, 2020, 12:26:04 PM
.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:30:36 PM
Based on polls  (polles)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 04, 2020, 12:45:16 PM
So 2 things here. First of all, 1% is nuts. There are processes in place for the double ballot issue. Deceased may be an issue, but again, it would take a coordinated effort of mailing those ballots in to make any difference. And studies of that issue show that - just like in your case - instances of those ballots actually being sent in are exceedingly rare.

None were duplicate ballots.

How would there be studies if mail in ballots weren't sent out unsolicited previously?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:47:24 PM
None were duplicate ballots.

How would there be studies if mail in ballots weren't sent out unsolicited previously?


This will lead us to see how reliable mail in ballots  are and if they will hold up in court.
(https://i.postimg.cc/9fQP1zDd/wi.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/pm3nLWYr)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: stooges44 on November 04, 2020, 12:48:05 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:49:00 PM

Yeah, overall best possible outcome for businesses in Urban hub.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 12:49:46 PM

This will lead us to see how reliable mail in ballots  are and if they will hold up in court.
(https://i.postimg.cc/9fQP1zDd/wi.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/pm3nLWYr)


How long does a recount take?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 12:50:08 PM
Yeah, overall best possible outcome for businesses in Urban hub.

For now...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on November 04, 2020, 12:50:35 PM
Jorgensen has twice that. Spoiler indeed.

And IINM it's not only in WI.

So the bottom line is that the election is decided by a bunch of Quixotic idiots who not only determine the final outcome, but also heavily contribute to the agonizing process until the final outcome is decided.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:51:15 PM
And IINM it's not only in WI.

Yeah, former WI R Governor said, Rs should not keep their hopes high.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: stooges44 on November 04, 2020, 12:51:50 PM
How long does a recount take?

Ask Al Gore
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ar on November 04, 2020, 12:54:59 PM
Why didnt we get new results from AZ and NV the past few hours?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:55:11 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 12:55:50 PM
Yeah, former WI R Governor said, Rs should not keep their hopes high.

Can you explain what you mean by that? Youre saying that according to that Trumpis 40k not 20k behind yet Rs should keep their hopes up? Sorry just not sure I follow
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 12:56:03 PM
So basically the most significant SCOTUS ruling of the century may be on the definition of a pen?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 12:56:10 PM
Why didnt we get new results from AZ and NV the past few hours?

Maybe theyre pulling a WI.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 12:57:17 PM
So basically the most significant SCOTUS ruling of the century may be on the definition of a pen?

SCOTUS would probably send it back to the states. This would be their worst nightmare to have to paskin this
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:57:27 PM
Can you explain what you mean by that? Youre saying that according to that Trumpis 40k not 20k behind yet Rs should keep their hopes up? Sorry just not sure I follow
R Should not, they had recounts in the past and it didn't swing mutch.

Although this time can be different, due to mail in votes and many signatures can be a mismatch.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 12:57:39 PM
So basically the most significant SCOTUS ruling of the century may be on the definition of a pen?

You mean to invalidate votes filled out with a pencil or marker? Wouldnt it take forever to make such a determination for countless paper ballots? Sounds beyond insane.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 12:58:43 PM
R Should not, they had recounts in the past and it didn't swing mutch.

Although this time can be different, due to mail in votes and many signatures can be a mismatch.

So youre saying despite this projection Rs should keep their hope up, not bc of it....?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 12:58:52 PM
Maybe theyre pulling a WI.
NV won't be updated  until tomorrow, the dems can do some work....

Ppl from that area say they are good at it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 12:59:00 PM
None were duplicate ballots.
Ah, misread because of the 7 for 4 comment. You could have just said the latter part.
How would there be studies if mail in ballots weren't sent out unsolicited previously?
First of all, there are several states that have mailed ballots to all voters for a while now. Second of all, why would the rate of fraud change? Wouldn't it just be volume?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 12:59:52 PM
You mean to invalidate votes filled out with a pencil or marker? Wouldnt it take forever to make such a determination for countless paper ballots? Sounds beyond insane.
?s=21

?s=21

Worth checking his twitter feed, he backs it up.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: stv17 on November 04, 2020, 12:59:59 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/q7QrVDMf/Capture.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 01:00:05 PM
So youre saying despite this projection Rs should keep their hope up, not bc of it....?
No one knows, comparing 2016 data to 2020 in PA and GA doesn't give any clues but makes it more confusing due to mail in ballots.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 01:01:18 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:02:36 PM
Trump down to 85k lead in GA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 01:04:33 PM
Unless my math is flawed, assuming the current favorite in the remaining states hold wont this result in a tie?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: sddd on November 04, 2020, 01:04:51 PM
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1324046952682704896%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dpredictitt_i%3D5596t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.predictit.org2FMarket2F55962FWhich-party-will-win-Arizona-in-the-2020-presidential-electiont_e%3DPredictIt207C20Which20party20will20win20Arizona20in20the20202020presidential20election3Ft_d%3D202020US20Presidential20Predictions207C20Which20party20will20win20Arizona20in2020203Ft_t%3DPredictIt207C20Which20party20will20win20Arizona20in20the20202020presidential20election3Fs_o%3Ddefaultversion%3Df1a8a291969fa22da75b9e4d3099e7b

If correct, comes down to PA as WI/MI are clearly Biden's.
Any positive data for Trump in PA? Everything I see indicates a Biden win.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:07:30 PM
How is it that the AP and CNN both have NV at 580k vs 588k but AP has count at 67% reporting while Fox at 75%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 04, 2020, 01:07:54 PM
There's one huge story that I didn't see here on DDF, nor on the media:

The Dems were projected to pick up between 5 and 25 seats in the House. Currently, it seems like the REPUBLICANS will pick up about 5 seats!!

This can have a drastic impact on Pelosi's chances of maintaining here position as speaker. Firstly, she failed to carry her party to victory. Secondly, she lost some key votes she needs for speakership. AOC and her squad will not vote for her, so it's unclear if she has enough votes to keep the podium.
So clueless about this. What will 2021 D/R house numbers look like after these results?
Here's a good article on this:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/dems-post-mortem-election-2020-434044
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:08:06 PM
Unless my math is flawed, assuming the current favorite in the remaining states hold wont this result in a tie?
Wasn't this seat predicted for Trump all along?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 01:09:04 PM
https://nypost.com/2020/11/04/bernie-sanders-predicted-much-of-2020-election-night-on-fallon/?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPTwitter&utm_medium=SocialFlow&__twitter_impression=true

Bernie Sanders predicted much of 2020 election night on Jimmy Fallon
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 01:09:18 PM
How is it that the AP and CNN both have NV at 580k vs 588k but AP has count at 67% reporting while Fox at 75%
Its estimated vote remaining, perhaps FOX is using metrics that assume there are fewer remaining votes (which is more favorable to Biden as remaining votes will possibly slant Trump)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:09:24 PM
How is it that the AP and CNN both have NV at 580k vs 588k but AP has count at 67% reporting while Fox at 75%
I don't think anybody really knows how many outstanding ballots. Even FL official numbers changed last night throughout.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 01:11:47 PM
CNN HAS ITS BEST DAY OF THE YEAR. They are really good over this day.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 01:13:10 PM
Wasn't this seat predicted for Trump all along?
Possibly. But is my electoral map math flawed?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:17:20 PM
How is it that the AP and CNN both have NV at 580k vs 588k but AP has count at 67% reporting while Fox at 75%
I noticed similar discrepencies betweens sites all last night. No idea.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:24:06 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:26:28 PM
Possibly. But is my electoral map math flawed?
Im not seeing what youre seeing. Trump at 213. GA 16, NC 15, PA 20 ME 1, AK 3 = 268. No? 1 short
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: mochjas on November 04, 2020, 01:28:11 PM
Im not seeing what youre seeing. Trump at 213. GA 16, NC 15, PA 20 ME 1, AK 3 = 268. No? 1 short
needs NV too
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 01:29:21 PM
needs NV too
Or AZ
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 01:29:53 PM
First of all, there are several states that have mailed ballots to all voters for a while now. Second of all, why would the rate of fraud change? Wouldn't it just be volume?

I would assume states that always mail out ballots would regularly update voter lists and be much more accurate than those doing it for the first time. States sending out to inaccurate lists have a much higher chance of fraud due to much higher rates of wrongfully sent ballots.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:30:27 PM
needs NV too
NV is leaning Trump?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 01:30:53 PM
Trump down to 85k lead in GA

Only 230k left. Biden needs 70%. Long shot.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 01:31:24 PM
NV is leaning Trump?

No way to know. They're not reporting anything until Thursday. Unlikely.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 01:31:57 PM
What's going on with AZ? Why haven't they updated anything in 8 hours?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:33:49 PM
Only 230k left.
No way to know that. Mail in votes still coming in.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:34:19 PM
What's going on with AZ? Why haven't they updated anything in 8 hours?
Need to make sure the count is correct.  ;)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:34:56 PM
Only 230k left. Biden needs 70%. Long shot.
Coming down to the wire. I hope those Fulton county (Atlanta) votes end up being counted, the story with the burst pipe is getting more and more suspicious.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yef on November 04, 2020, 01:37:15 PM
If trump wins AZ and loses mi and wi does he still win? Assuming he keeps everything he is ahead by.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 01:38:04 PM
If trump wins AZ and loses mi and wi does he still win? Assuming he keeps everything he is ahead by.
yes same goes for NV.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 01:39:23 PM
If trump wins AZ and loses mi and wi does he still win? Assuming he keeps everything he is ahead by.
Yes, if he holds PA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:40:02 PM
Can we reset the poll and start over? @Dan  @jj1000
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 04, 2020, 01:41:30 PM
For all that this suspense is worth we might as well have a tie... wouldnt that be historic... at least then trump can boast to be the first president to win a tie...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:41:51 PM
Only 230k left. Biden needs 70%. Long shot.
NYT still saying 64% Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 01:41:54 PM
Trump is crazy tight in PA, and even losing based on 2016vs2020 data in comparing % of in person and mail in ballots, meaning its mostly mail in ballots that need to be counted an those are favorably dem.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 01:44:42 PM
AFAF: What happens if uncounted ballots burn?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:44:46 PM
For all that this suspense is worth we might as well have a tie... wouldnt that be historic... at least then trump can boast to be the first president to win a tie...
Went back to the map and I came up with this:

(https://i.gyazo.com/b122be72335f1cedad5f7bc95aac1ef3.png)

Anything else?  @CountValentine
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 01:46:53 PM
Went back to the map and I came up with this:

(https://i.gyazo.com/b122be72335f1cedad5f7bc95aac1ef3.png)

Anything else?  @CountValentine

Everything's possible, but doesn't necessarily follow where Trump/Biden are favored (e.g. Trump losing GA.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:47:25 PM
Went back to the map and I came up with this:

(https://i.gyazo.com/b122be72335f1cedad5f7bc95aac1ef3.png)

Anything else?  @CountValentine

You really think that GA will go blue and AZ and NV red?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:52:03 PM
NV is very likely going to end for Biden.

To summarize Trump's (most likely) path: win PA, GA, NC, and one of WI, MI, NV, and AZ (this could also happen via recounts).
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 01:52:16 PM
You really think that GA will go blue and AZ and NV red?
Think? No.
Possible? Sure.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:53:51 PM
NV is very likely going to end for Biden.

To summarize Trump's (most likely) path: win PA, GA, NC, and one of WI, MI, NV, and AZ (this could also happen via recounts).

WI and MI is done for Biden. No? Is there a better chance for Trump in AZ or NV?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:53:59 PM
Went back to the map and I came up with this:

(https://i.gyazo.com/b122be72335f1cedad5f7bc95aac1ef3.png)

Anything else?  @CountValentine
I wait for you to give us the ties.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 01:55:06 PM
Friend bought options for private prisons. If Trump wins 20x return (market assuming Biden will ban them)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:55:13 PM
WI and MI is done for Biden. No? Is there a better chance for Trump in AZ or NV?
Nothing is done when it's that close. Will be recounts, fights, etc. Every media outlet calls things differently, so I don't know which outlet you're seeing.
Probably more hope in AZ at this point.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:56:10 PM
GEOFFREY SKELLEY
NOV. 4, 1:28 PM
If youre wondering how exactly a blue shift in Pennsylvania could be significant enough for Biden to overcome Trumps 8-point lead there, consider this small batch of votes that just came in from Allegheny County (Pittsburgh). About 4,700 new votes were reported there, and Biden won nearly 80 percent of them. Its important for readers to understand that a lot of the outstanding mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania are not only from populous Democratic-leaning areas, but are also going to be even more Democratic than those areas on the whole because Democrats were far more likely to vote by mail. While there are some outstanding votes from more rural GOP areas, its the large number of strongly Democratic mail-in ballots that could boost Biden enough to overtake Trump. Will that happen? Well have to wait and see.

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 01:56:16 PM
Nothing is done when it's that close. Will be recounts, fights, etc. Every media outlet calls things differently, so I don't know which outlet you're seeing.
Probably more hope in AZ at this point.

MI up for biden by 50k. Its finished id think even with the fights
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 01:57:43 PM
Remember the states that can still receive and count mail in ballots postmarked 11/3. PA is one of those.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 01:57:52 PM
MI up for biden by 50k. Its finished id think even with the fights
It's definitely a longshot for Trump. That being said, probably all 4 of those states are longshots at this point.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 02:01:18 PM
CNN calls WI for Biden
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 02:01:44 PM
CNN calls WI for Biden
Fat Lady?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 02:02:33 PM
Fat Lady?
Fat Lady ain't waking up anytime today...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 02:04:41 PM
Fat Lady ain't waking up anytime today...
Some might not acknowledge she is singing but is she?  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:07:59 PM
If anyone wants to crunch PA votes, https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

You can view mail in Ballot and Election day results live, broken down by county...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 02:11:12 PM
If anyone wants to crunch PA votes, https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

You can view mail in Ballot and Election day results live, broken down by county...
...but you won't know how many ballots they will get in the next three days.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:13:29 PM
...but you won't know how many ballots they will get in the next three days.
You can see the outstanding.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 02:16:57 PM
You can see the outstanding.
Am I reading it right. A max of 500k still not received?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:19:33 PM
Am I reading it right. A max of 500k still not received?
Didn't crunch it!

There many locations still not showing election day results in Rural...

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:22:10 PM
AP called WI for Biden. ABC still not calling it (I think because it's under a 1% margin).
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 02:23:08 PM
AP called WI for Biden. ABC still not calling it (I think because it's under a 1% margin).

I would say its for Biden for now, would not be surprised to see many thrown out over mail in ballot irregularities..
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:25:17 PM
AP called Maine 2nd district (1 electorate) for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 02:26:42 PM
DD projects Republicans will maintain control of the state house delegation, used for 269 tiebreakers.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: sddd on November 04, 2020, 02:32:21 PM
At this point only realistic path is PA + AZ
AZ doable
PA not too likely

Plz prove me wrong
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 02:35:19 PM
At this point only realistic path is PA + AZ
AZ doable
PA not too likely

Plz prove me wrong
AZ more likely than NV?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 02:36:40 PM
Per Nate Silver, to win AZ Trump needs 20-25% of remaining ballots, and they're for late mail-in ballots which are +19% Republican.  Very tight again

NYT Has Biden up 38,000 in Michigan with 'more than 30k additional votes uncounted'
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 02:37:14 PM
AZ more likely than NV?

Yes
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 02:38:21 PM
Yes
If that happens Fox would really look terrible, after they doubled down on AZ for Biden
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 02:39:56 PM
If that happens Fox would really look terrible, after they doubled down on AZ for Biden

They look terrible regardless
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 02:41:54 PM
They look terrible regardless

They just called WI for Biden
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 02:43:05 PM
ABC taking back arizona
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 02:44:02 PM
ABC taking back arizona

Crazy
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 02:45:19 PM
Lets see if fox will follow  that will be very embarassing for them
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 02:45:36 PM
ABC taking back arizona
Um, I'm pretty sure ABC never called AZ. They seem to be the most conservative when it comes to calling races.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 02:51:54 PM
?s=21

93% counted
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 04, 2020, 02:59:08 PM
the way twitter is censoring the presidents tweets is despicable.  they should be boycotted by anyone that enjoys basic freedom and rights!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: biscotti on November 04, 2020, 03:00:38 PM
the way twitter is censoring the presidents tweets is despicable.  they should be boycotted by anyone that enjoys basic freedom and rights!

Including Trump I hope!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 03:00:51 PM
At this point only realistic path is PA + AZ
AZ doable
PA not too likely

Plz prove me wrong

Did u crunch the #s.. mail vs in person outstanding?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 03:01:42 PM
Went back to the map and I came up with this:
Anything else?  @CountValentine
I would think this version of the tie was more likely, but with NE2 called for Biden it falls apart.
(https://www.270towin.com/maps/BbEk7.png)

ETA: Fixed who I was quoting.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:04:17 PM
the way twitter is censoring the presidents tweets is despicable.  they should be boycotted by anyone that enjoys basic freedom and rights!
You mean the one where he claims victory?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 03:05:51 PM
You mean the one where he claims victory?
How can you possibly deny him that freedom?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:06:45 PM
How can you possibly deny him that freedom?
Thats like to deny Putin.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 04, 2020, 03:10:12 PM
You mean the one where he claims victory?
and so?  did they censor any lies from the democratic side? or only hunter biden docs and the president?  i didnt see any alerts when they were investigating "russia collusion"   its bias towards one side. and the last 24 hours on an extreme level.  yes our freedom is being censored.


and wait until creep squad gets a say in a Harris administration.   it's only downhill from here.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:13:42 PM
and so? 
So you are OK with POTUS making a mockery out of our democracy?

For the record "but officer" is always a losing argument.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: sddd on November 04, 2020, 03:14:03 PM
Did u crunch the #s.. mail vs in person outstanding?

nope im an armchair analyst
but some number crunchers crunshed.
and they think it leans Biden.
see Nate Silver's posts.

looking for any sources that think PA should go TRump but not finding any outside of the campaign themselves.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 04, 2020, 03:15:15 PM
So you are OK with POTUS making a mockery out of our democracy?

For the record "but officer" is always a losing argument.
I'm ok with him making statments that might be an opinion yet it might have merit. they are censoring literally every single tweet. 
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 03:16:56 PM
The last person someone would look to now is nate silver.

Trump has a 550k lead, based on in person voting and based on 2016 comparison data, 90+% of in person voting is in heavy to split R.

Mail in votes are distributed favorably for dems but its had to say if its enough for a swing.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 03:17:35 PM
Michigan SoS Jocelyn Benson expects an unofficial count of the final roughly 100,000 remaining ballots will be done by the end of the day.

Biden currently up by 37.2k with 94% in.

Its missing Wayne county thats why NYT called it for Peters
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:18:17 PM
I'm ok with him making statments that might be an opinion yet it might have merit. they are censoring literally every single tweet.
I didn't see all the tweets they censored. The one last night deserved to be censored.
To be fair and balanced the Hunter stuff should not have been censored.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 03:21:53 PM
To be fair and balanced the Hunter stuff should not have been censored.

But it was. Thats why they lost credibility. Its the boy crying Wolf
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 03:23:53 PM
What are the chances that Trump runs again in 2024 if he loses reelection now?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 03:23:57 PM
Trump lead in PA down to 403k

Arizona didnt report Phoenix yet. Fox probably knew that all along
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 03:24:12 PM
What are the chances that Trump runs again in 2024 if he loses reelection now?
I would have it at 60%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Ergel on November 04, 2020, 03:25:06 PM
What are the chances that Trump runs again in 2024 if he loses reelection now?
2%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 03:25:20 PM
I would have it at 60%

I think it depends on the next couple years. Theres waaayyy too much going on now to have any clue about what he might do in 2 years
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:27:42 PM
Biden 4:1 favorite.

2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
2   Joe Biden      -420   
1   Donald Trump      +340   
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 03:28:04 PM
2%

If economy is bad hell Jump right back in!! and very likely win.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 03:29:07 PM
Anyway I think we can call GA for the big T and NC can take over a week per reports... but most likely Trump.....
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 03:29:52 PM
Anyway I think we can call GA for the big T and NC can take over a week per reports... but most likely Trump.....

Wheres AZ up to?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 03:30:53 PM
Anyway I think we can call GA for the big T and NC can take over a week per reports... but most likely Trump.....
NYT still saying 64% Biden for GA.
86% Trump in NC.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:31:26 PM
If economy is bad hell Jump right back in!! and very likely win.
JR's girlfriend who broke up his marriage has him positioned for 2024. Gold-digger would be kind. Did I mention she kept this under wraps while she was promoting him on FOX?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:32:23 PM
Anyway I think we can call GA for the big T and NC can take over a week per reports... but most likely Trump.....
Do you have this reversed?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 03:33:33 PM
Stock market up again on a projected Biden win. So much for Trumps BS!!!
Stop the BS.  Its because R are keeping the senate. Blocking Biden from raising taxes etc.

If it would've been a clean sweep the market would have been crashing now.   
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:36:05 PM
Stop the BS.  Its because R are keeping the senate. Blocking Biden from raising taxes etc.

If it would've been a clean sweep the market would have been crashing now.
100% BS!!!
The market has been up/down all week due to covid and how it effects the economy.
Trumps BS was it would tank if Biden won. 100% false!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 03:37:52 PM
NYT still saying 64% Biden for GA.
86% Trump in NC.

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/general/georgia
I think Fulton and Douglas are the Major D stronghold not reporting in full, Dekalb has reported (at 83-90) even if B outperformed he will still have a hard time.
There are some Large R districts that are not reporting full as well, I see a way B can make it, but it'll be tight maybe like MI and WI, and in the past it wasnt that tight.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 03:38:32 PM
100% BS!!!
The market has been up/down all week due to covid and how it effects the economy.
Trumps BS was it would tank if Biden won. 100% false!!!

A national lockdown like Biden wants would def effect the economy so I dont think its 100% BS. Its not as bad as Trump says it will be but its something.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 03:39:35 PM
the way twitter is censoring the presidents tweets is despicable.  they should be boycotted by anyone that enjoys basic freedom and rights!
Would love to see Trump Tweet:

Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process. Learn more.

(Would be the ultimate Twitter Troll, and it's what everyone would be talking about)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:40:04 PM
A national lockdown like Biden wants would def effect the economy so I dont think its 100% BS. Its not as bad as Trump says it will be but its something.
Then the market would be crashing. They don't believe he will lock down the country. That is kool-aid talk.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 03:40:46 PM
Then the market would be crashing. They don't believe he will lock down the country. That is kool-aid talk.

I pray youre right
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 03:41:19 PM
?s=21

Unforgivable. 1.1m votes to count
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 03:42:07 PM
Does seem a bit premature
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 04, 2020, 03:42:58 PM
Wheres AZ up to?

          @realDonaldTrump Campaign advisor Jason Miller says there are 605,000 outstanding day-of ballots in Arizona. Miller says POTUS needs 57.73% of remaining day-of vote - far less than he has been getting. The Trump campaign predicts they will declare victory in AZ by Friday.

John Roberts @johnrobertsFox  Twitter 6 mins ago
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 03:43:55 PM
The war broke out

?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 03:45:10 PM
The war broke out
Must be antifa.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yosefsv on November 04, 2020, 03:49:10 PM
?s=21

Unforgivable. 1.1m votes to count
and Fox is right with calling AZ?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 03:51:05 PM
Must be antifa.  :)

They are not smashing windows.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 03:52:47 PM
Not sure why they are calling PA, I think its to early..
They have a chance, but I guess ppl calling AZ made them call PA.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 03:53:58 PM
and Fox is right with calling AZ?
Big difference between Fox & White House!!! Fox can do whatever they want, White House is a public servant!!!

If Fox is confident the missing ballots are from Phoenix, they are 100% right
Not sure why they are calling PA, I think its to early..
Trump is Trump. They're suing to stop counting and trying to claim victory. Criminal
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 03:55:41 PM
Big difference between Fox & White House!!! Fox can do whatever they want, White House is a public servant!!!

If Fox is confident the missing ballots are from Phoenix, they are 100% right Trump is Trump. They're suing to stop counting and trying to claim victory. Criminal
They are suing in places they believe requires more oversight.

Fox can call and Trump Compaign can as well.
Its not the White House.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 03:58:25 PM
?s=20

I guess we know why results are taking longer to trickle in now.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 03:59:40 PM
They are suing in places they believe requires more oversight.

Fox can call and Trump Compaign can as well.
Its not the White House.
The current WH Press Secretary is the Trump campaign and not the WH?  ::)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:01:27 PM
The current WH Press Secretary is the Trump campaign and not the WH?  ::)
She always states she works in two capacities.
This is very normal in politics.

Like seeing the PA AG tweeting from personal Twitter account.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:02:01 PM
The current WH Press Secretary is the Trump campaign and not the WH?  ::)
After some kool-aid, sure.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 04:03:16 PM
Trump down to 354k lead in PA
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:03:51 PM
She always states she works in two capacities.
This is very normal in politics.
You mean like when she was campaigning on FOX using her official title?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:04:38 PM
Trump down to 354k lead in PA

He will continue to go down as they count philly, but.. no one knows..
Even Donald trump Jr. doesn't know..
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:08:13 PM
He will continue to go down as they count philly, but.. no one knows..
Even Donald trump Jr. doesn't know..
Expect campaign manager just called it according to John Roberts.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 04:10:27 PM
https://www.dansdeals.com/more/dans-commentary/wont-happen-wouldnt-electoral-college-tie-2020-thing-ever/
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 04:11:08 PM
https://www.dansdeals.com/more/dans-commentary/wont-happen-wouldnt-electoral-college-tie-2020-thing-ever/

Hows a tie possible at this point?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:11:15 PM
Expect campaign manager just called it according to John Roberts.
Yeah his campaign is trying to look good but don't think its that way.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:12:14 PM
Hows a tie possible at this point?
Kindly, read the headline.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:13:57 PM
This looks like 2016 in reverse. Trump down!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:15:09 PM
Biden sounding presidential. Something we have not seen or heard in 4 years.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 04:15:47 PM
Biden sounding presidential. Something we have not seen in 4 years.
+1
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 04:15:56 PM
Hows a tie possible at this point?
Read the post?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 04:17:04 PM
Almost as long as his speech last night :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 04:17:20 PM
CNN gives MI to Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 04:17:29 PM
This looks like 2016 in reverse. Trump down!
Huh? In 2016 Trump triumphed against expectations. In 2020 Biden was likely to win all along. He's on track to win 290-321 EC votes even if it was a razor thin margin.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 04:17:50 PM
CNN just called MI for Biden. Only path for Trump is PA+ AZ or NV (and hold GA/NC). Updated AZ #s due out at 9 PM EST.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 04:18:46 PM
+1
Phew
ברוך הטוב והמטיב
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lamppost on November 04, 2020, 04:18:54 PM
Read the post?

Missed it:)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Zalc on November 04, 2020, 04:19:27 PM
Is it normal for the 3rd party vote to be larger than the margin between D and R in nearly all swing states?

I don't know what the implications are but it's certainly interesting
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Jellybelly on November 04, 2020, 04:20:18 PM
Trump down to 354k lead in PA
Thats peanuts for the dems to pull off. All they need is Wednesday night and Thursday night to find the votes and Friday theyll be ready to announce final numbers
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 04, 2020, 04:26:20 PM
Is it normal for the 3rd party vote to be larger than the margin between D and R in nearly all swing states?

I don't know what the implications are but it's certainly interesting

The implication should be that we need to get our act together and get a normal third party. If fringe wackos can disrupt our 2 party system, a legit third party can bring normalcy and diplomacy to a corrupt process. It likely won't happen, and there's no guarantee that the third party will be any less messed up than the other 2, but I'm more than ready for it to happen already.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 04:27:05 PM
What are the chances that Trump runs again in 2024 if he loses reelection now?
I do believe that if he will be in good physical capacity, he will do it. And as bizarre as it sounds he might be the only R option to win the electoral college.  Let's not kid ourselves, Trump has again almost done what almost everyone tought was impossible. I can't help it but to say that only Trump can do it. in 2012 Romney tried and miserably failed. We know what establishment Rs can do from 2012. Seems like the Rs need a disruptor like Trump to push them over the finish line.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 04:29:37 PM
Surprised nobody listing the winners and losers is talking about the biggest loser of all: Bloomberg! Apparently he still had too much in his wallet after his debacle of a campaign, so he threw $100MM+ into helping Biden with FL and OH. So much for his vaunted data-based analytic operation!

His stupidity was rivaled only by his predecessor, Giuliani. What is it with NYC and its mayors? At least we still have our incumbent - er, never mind.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 04:32:01 PM
Looks like Peters (D) is gonna eke out a senate win in MI
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:32:11 PM
Surprised nobody listing the winners and losers is talking about the biggest loser of all: Bloomberg! Apparently he still had too much in his wallet after his debacle of a campaign, so he threw $100MM+ into helping Biden with FL and OH. So much for his vaunted data-based analytic operation!
Did he really lose? Throwing all that money at FL also made Trump throw money there he could have used in MI, WI, AZ and so on. Think about it.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:32:41 PM
Looks like Peters (D) is gonna eke out a senate win in MI
What does that put the senate at?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 04:32:59 PM
Surprised nobody listing the winners and losers is talking about the biggest loser of all: Bloomberg! Apparently he still had too much in his wallet after his debacle of a campaign, so he threw $100MM+ into helping Biden with FL and OH. So much for his vaunted data-based analytic operation!

His stupidity was rivaled only by his predecessor, Giuliani. What is it with NYC and its mayors? At least we still have our incumbent - er, never mind.
The Biden ads seemed like they outnumbered Trump ads in OH by a 50:1 margin.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:33:26 PM
https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 04:35:11 PM
What does that put the senate at?
Not following the other remaining senate races closely, but I believe most were favored R, probably giving the R's 51 or 52 seats (1 being determined in a runoff election in January).
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 04:38:35 PM
https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city
Doesnt really matter anymore, no way to prove which ballots are legitimate and which arent
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 04, 2020, 04:39:01 PM
https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city

From the article -
Quote
Wisconsin is one of 21 states that allow same-day voter registration at the polls.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 04:39:28 PM
What does that put the senate at?
49D 49R NC & GA still up.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:41:14 PM
From the article -
Doesnt really matter anymore, no way to prove which ballots are legitimate and which arent
Yeah all possible, but proves a point when some urban hubs had major turnout votes and some didn't.

Alot of ppl will say there is fraud in big cities, and its undoubtedly true, the question is at what scale and can it be proven to overturn an election.

I dont think so.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 04, 2020, 04:41:20 PM
Doesnt really matter anymore, no way to prove which ballots are legitimate and which arent

In 2018 an election (to the House) was thrown out because the fraud (by someone working for the Republican candidate) was greater than the margin of victory.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:41:57 PM
They are crying like crazy. Now they know how it feels when you don't get your way.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 04:42:02 PM
I'm going to copy and paste a detailed explanation from Nate Silver on all the remaining states.
He lists the order of likelihood of Trump winning remaining states:
1. NC
2. GA
3. PA
4. AZ
5. NV
6. MI
7. WI

Quote
Where The Outstanding Presidential Races Stand, From Most Likely Trump Win To Least Likely Trump Win
Nate here. Stepping back into the saddle here for the rest of the day after a brief rest. Im going to give you a rundown of how Im currently seeing the states where we still dont have projections, even though it might be a little redundant with what weve written earlier.

But heres where the presidential race stands from most likely Trump win to least likely Trump win:

North Carolina. Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to The Upshots needle, which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. Id call this one Likely Trump, although 15 percent chances arent zero, obviously!

Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (theres some uncertainty over the exact number). That seems like a tall order for Biden, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshots needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. Well know more soon. Lets say Tossup but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick.

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. Whats left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process on Monday or Tuesday. Theres some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Bidens current 93,000-vote lead. Theyre disrupted fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait outstanding mail votes? Shouldnt those be good for Biden, as in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and this is the key part the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be continued) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday were: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But heres the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

Theres also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. Id assume theyve put more work into looking into this than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you will get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, Id say this is Likely Biden but I dont think the state should have been called yet.

Nevada. This ones a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent or about 7,500 votes. But whats remaining should be pretty good for him. Its all mail-in ballots that were either received late in the process or which are still coming in in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided theyre postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots were quite blue in Nevada by party registration, much more so than in Arizona, including votes that arrived relatively late in the process. Likely Biden.

Michigan. Biden is ahead, leading by around 61,000 votes or 1.2 percentage points. His lead has been growing and given what votes are outstanding, is likely to grow further. Likely Biden.

Wisconsin. No known votes left to be counted. The Trump campaign says it will seek a recount, but recounts rarely change results, and certainly not with something on the magnitude of Bidens 20,000-vote lead. Biden is the apparent winner, per ABC News.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 04:43:01 PM
49D 49R NC & GA still up.
Looks more like 48D 49R with GAx2 and NC still up in the air.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:44:06 PM
Rudy needs to join DDF so we can debate what "observe" means. This guy is a complete nut job!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 04:44:11 PM
https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city

How is this not election fraud?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:44:23 PM
49D 49R NC & GA still up.
Very likely 51 R > 49 but at this point who knows.
NC can take a week.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 04:44:37 PM
I'm going to copy and paste a detailed explanation from Nate Silver on all the remaining states.
He lists the order of likelihood of Trump winning remaining states:
1. NC
2. GA
3. PA
4. AZ
5. NV
6. MI
7. WI

NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 4:40 PM
Moments ago in my larger overview of the race, I noted Biden was ahead in Michigan by around 1.2 percentage points. ABC News has now projected he race, and that makes sense. Michigan may not even wind up being that close in the end.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on November 04, 2020, 04:45:03 PM
The implication should be that we need to get our act together and get a normal third party. If fringe wackos can disrupt our 2 party system, a legit third party can bring normalcy and diplomacy to a corrupt process. It likely won't happen, and there's no guarantee that the third party will be any less messed up than the other 2, but I'm more than ready for it to happen already.

-1

We don't have a parliamentary system where coalitions are forged. It's a binary decision and there's no place for a third party. It would only make sense if there were no parties at all, then the race would resemble the primaries (G-d spare us from that)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:46:38 PM
How is this not election fraud?
Milwaukee is Chicago's little brother.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:48:04 PM
I'm going to copy and paste a detailed explanation from Nate Silver on all the remaining states.
He lists the order of likelihood of Trump winning remaining states:
1. NC
2. GA
3. PA
4. AZ
5. NV
6. MI
7. WI
I say at this point at least, he is pretty accurate.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:48:23 PM
Rudy keeps crying about PA. Someone want to let this nut job know PA is not needed.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:48:27 PM
Milwaukee is Chicago's little brother.  :)
At least someone agrees.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 04:49:01 PM
Rudy keeps crying about PA. Someone want to let this nut job know PA is not needed.
Can we get some videos of him melting?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:49:45 PM
At least someone agrees.
I didn't say they did anything wrong.
Chicago is the poster child for fair elections!  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:50:03 PM
Can we get some videos of him melting?
FOX but he is done.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ExGingi on November 04, 2020, 04:51:27 PM
So basically the most significant SCOTUS ruling of the century may be on the definition of a pen?

TBH, whenever I see these paper ballots I just see them as prone to be problematic.

The old mechanical voting machines worked well for many years, I'd love to see them back (or a modern adaptation of those).
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 04, 2020, 04:55:27 PM
Can we get some videos of him melting?
https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamTrump
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 04, 2020, 04:58:03 PM
-1

We don't have a parliamentary system where coalitions are forged. It's a binary decision and there's no place for a third party. It would only make sense if there were no parties at all, then the race would resemble the primaries (G-d spare us from that)

I don't want a parliamentary system with a multitude of parties and coalitions. I want a party that forces both sides towards the middle by making them compromise to get a mandate. We've had third parties in this country before. The Republican Party started as one. Every time another one rises, one of the bigger parties alters its agenda to try to bring those disenfranchised voters under their platform. While there is a value in that, I'd prefer a third party that continues to keep everyone honest.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 04:58:48 PM
Looks more like 48D 49R with GAx2 and NC still up in the air.
Yeah my mad. I think GA2 is pretty much guaranteed R in the runoff (gonna be an insane campaign though), so the Republican are strong favorite with a 1.8% lead in NC, and at least 50:50 in GA1
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 04:59:37 PM
I don't want a parliamentary system with a multitude of parties and coalitions. I want a party that forces both sides towards the middle by making them compromise to get a mandate. We've had third parties in this country before. The Republican Party started as one. Every time another one rises, one of the bigger parties alters its agenda to try to bring those disenfranchised voters under their platform. While there is a value in that, I'd prefer a third party that continues to keep everyone honest.
What would you think about Trump running as a 3rd party?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 05:01:22 PM
What would you think about Trump running as a 3rd party?
Bernie Sanders would win then...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 05:03:12 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamTrump
No major melt.

Rudy has done better.

But he might actually be right.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 05:04:02 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 04, 2020, 05:10:05 PM
What would you think about Trump running as a 3rd party?

I don't see where or how. He's too in line with the Republicans on too many issues to gain much separation.

The value to me is more in the party than an individual. If the third party is strong enough to gain seats in legislature, I think it forces R and D presidential candidates to campaign on who will be most likely to be able to work with the third party in order to carry a mandate and get things done. I think it stops extremists from winning either party's nomination for fear they'd be ineffective.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: pomy100 on November 04, 2020, 05:12:38 PM
Whats everyone so up in arms about stopping the count ?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 05:14:34 PM
-1

We don't have a parliamentary system where coalitions are forged. It's a binary decision and there's no place for a third party. It would only make sense if there were no parties at all, then the race would resemble the primaries (G-d spare us from that)
Ranked choice fixes all of this. Only difference is that it would change the campaigning process, which I'm not sure is a bad thing.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: jj1000 on November 04, 2020, 05:14:53 PM
No matter what happens Data Orbital won today

I think they got at least 4x the twitter followers so far today

If Trump wins AZ they will be even better off, but they already won
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 05:24:38 PM
Whats everyone so up in arms about stopping the count ?
Only one side is.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Ergel on November 04, 2020, 05:27:07 PM
Only one side is.
Let me guess, the side that stands to gain from stopping the count?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: skyguy918 on November 04, 2020, 05:27:34 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 05:28:23 PM
Let me guess, the side that stands to gain from stopping the count?
Bingo!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 05:51:16 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 05:53:45 PM
Fox is currently showing 264 for Biden. Once they call NV for Biden, will they declare him the winner? Or will they wait for further developments out of AZ?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: LNS on November 04, 2020, 05:54:43 PM
i wish trump would just sit on his hands and keep quite for a little while ....call me crazy but i think this might still work out for him
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 05:56:10 PM
Fox is currently showing 264 for Biden. Once they call NV for Biden, will they declare him the winner? Or will they wait for further developments out of AZ?
It's pretty funny that Fox's probability meter is showing 73% chance Biden wins AZ, but they've yet to retract their call.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 05:56:32 PM
NV updating tonight about same time as AZ. No reason for them not to wait.


If Trump holds GA, flips AZ back, claws back WI (extremely long shot), and loses PA (toss up), it'll be 269 each. Not inconceivable.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 05:58:41 PM
i wish trump would just sit on his hands and keep quite for a little while ....call me crazy but i think this might still work out for him
Also hurting republicans in the 2 upcoming Georgia reruns
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 06:00:02 PM
Fox is currently showing 264 for Biden. Once they call NV for Biden, will they declare him the winner? Or will they wait for further developments out of AZ?
Same for AP now too. They seem to have just called MI, so now they're showing same 264 as Fox.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 06:03:12 PM
I think AP and fox work together, do they?

This is pretty accurate info for GA, looks very tight..

https://www.ajc.com/politics/about-200000-absentee-ballots-still-need-to-be-counted-in-georgia/BYGJAXV5FRBGBAMA6JPIC7ZL34/
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 06:07:20 PM
I think AP and fox work together, do they?
I didn't know that but makes sense, because their numbers seem to correlate most of the time.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 04, 2020, 06:07:31 PM
I think AP and fox work together, do they?

This is pretty accurate info for GA, looks very tight..

https://www.ajc.com/politics/about-200000-absentee-ballots-still-need-to-be-counted-in-georgia/BYGJAXV5FRBGBAMA6JPIC7ZL34/
Fox called Texas hours before AP.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 06:07:45 PM
Trump lead in Georgia 68k with 185k uncounted. Biden needs 65% to win. May come down to ballots at USPS and SCOTUS.

?s=21

Trump w a 293k lead in PA but on track to lose

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 06:09:02 PM
Trump lead in Georgia 68k with 185k uncounted. Biden needs 65% to win. May come down to ballots at USPS and SCOTUS.

?s=21

Trump w a 293k lead in PA but on track to lose
Overall I think he is down.
His GA lead dosnt bold well for him.
Reverse 2016, he looses many states by small margins.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 06:10:35 PM
Trump GA + 57k
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 06:13:05 PM
Trump GA + 57k

Watching Trumps advantage run out is like watching an hourglass. Will the sand (advantage) run out before the time runs out (all votes counted), or not?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 06:13:44 PM
While Trump's odds of winning are now down to +500, the good news is that the odds of Melania divorcing him if he loses are unchanged and still in his favor (-500 that she won't). :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 04, 2020, 06:14:30 PM
So basically the most significant SCOTUS ruling of the century may be on the definition of a pen?
Most significant of the century?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 06:15:45 PM
Watching Trumps advantage run out is like watching an hourglass. Will the sand (advantage) run out before the time runs out (all votes counted), or not?
Precisely. Question if theyll get the hourglass going a bit longer by having miscounted remaining ballots / USPS (doubt theyll ever count those though).
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: myi on November 04, 2020, 06:16:29 PM
"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." - Joseph Stalin
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 06:16:42 PM
Most significant of the century?
Go luck at what people predicted will happen if Biden wins...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 04, 2020, 06:17:28 PM
Go luck at what people predicted will happen if Biden wins...
Lol
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: 159dallas on November 04, 2020, 06:18:58 PM
Did I do this right to get a 269-269 tie?

Trump
PA
NC
AZ
PA

Biden
GA
MI
WI
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Mordyk on November 04, 2020, 06:19:10 PM
is Trump going to win with the USPS method? ;D
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: 159dallas on November 04, 2020, 06:25:35 PM
Did I do this right to get a 269-269 tie?

Trump
PA
NC
AZ
PA

Biden
GA
MI
WI

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/D4Nn8

Looks like I am right
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: 159dallas on November 04, 2020, 06:26:58 PM
And something else.... IMO the most likely thing now is that Biden wins 270-268 Isn't it jyst possible we will have 1 faithless elector? That is all that it would take
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 06:28:01 PM
@SethAbramson
CNN (reporter Jim Acosta, live on-air): Trump campaign "giving up" on both Wisconsin and Michigan, is unlikely to seek a recount in either state despite prior public assertions from the campaign

I'll also note that while it was a given that the Rs will keep the senate, it's not a given anymore. David Perdue is leading Ossoff by 50.4 percent. If he falls below 50 which while not likely, is still possible, with the tightening race in GA, there will be 2 runoffs in Jan. And IF the Rs lose both then it will be 50-50 with Harris breaking the tie.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 06:30:58 PM
There will be 2 run-offs but the republicans will win GA2 and likely GA1. They will be off the chart senate campaigns though.

Trumps behavior isnt helping at all. Mitch McConnell has already come out against him in favor of counting every vote
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 06:32:18 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 04, 2020, 06:38:15 PM
is Trump going to win with the USPS method? ;D
Aha! The UPS method finally revealed!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 06:44:42 PM
That MI senate race is back and forth. In for a photo finish with 97% reporting.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 06:46:37 PM
That MI senate race is back and forth. In for a photo finish with 97% reporting.
the focus is that the last 3% are biden votes
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 06:48:03 PM
If D wins AZ, MI, and 1 of the GA's, would that be 50/50? With a potential Biden presidency giving the majority.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 06:48:57 PM
the focus is that the last 3% are biden votes
I understand that, but I feel like they've been saying that the final much more than 3% were the mail-ins, look how that's gone.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 06:57:39 PM
If D wins AZ, MI, and 1 of the GA's, would that be 50/50? With a potential Biden presidency giving the majority.
I believe will need both GA seats
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 07:03:09 PM
The Senate currently stands at 53R / 47D, so even if Biden wins the D's need a net +3 to flip control, with Harris as the tiebreaker. As of now, they flipped CO and AZ but R's flipped AL, so D's are currently +1 assuming they hold a very tight race in MI, and also assuming R's hang onto NC where they're more comfortably ahead.

Thus D's would need both GA seats to move to +3, which is quite unlikely, but would make for some crazy expensive campaigns, and would make me glad I don't live in Atlanta.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 07:11:14 PM
The NC race is more close than it seems. Look what happened everywhere else. They're also counting ballots received until Nov 12 (unlike GA).

However, I think the Republicans will win both GA reruns.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: how on November 04, 2020, 07:38:41 PM
Did I do this right to get a 269-269 tie?

Trump
PA
NC
AZ
PA

Biden
GA
MI
WI
was Alaska called yet?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 07:41:02 PM
GA Trump +47K with 95% counted

Nevada is that friend who says they're on their way but is actually still lying around in a towel
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 07:44:25 PM
NV had announced that because of mass interest, they would move up their reporting from tomorrow at noon as schedule to tonight. Now NYT reports that they changed their mind and are back to tomorrow at noon.

In other news, due to the dire state of affairs Rabbonim have added a name - the incumbent is now Donald Victor Trump and his opponent is now Joseph Eluzer Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:22:43 PM
Where can I find the covid numbers? Can't find them watching cable!  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Lurker on November 04, 2020, 08:24:46 PM
Where can I find the covid numbers? Can't find them watching cable!  :)

You're better off watching the numbers you're seeing on cable. The other ones may cause you to run out of weed much quicker.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 08:25:54 PM
Where can I find the covid numbers? Can't find them watching cable!  :)
I thought Trump was joking when he kept on saying that come Nov 4 the media will forget about covid..
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:27:19 PM
Melania just joined Tinder
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:31:30 PM
Outstanding ballot estimates for Arizona: If county not listed then exceeded my forecast. *= Official estimate
Apache: 8.8k
Cochise: 8.6k
Coconino: 5.5k
Greenlee: 250
La Paz: 400
Maricopa: 390k
Pima: *46k
Pinal: *41k
Santa Cruz: *1.5k
Yavapai: *1.7k
Yuma: *10.4k
Gila: *2.3k
Graham: *1.1k
Greenlee: *650
La Paz: *900

These are all official estimates. Brings AZ estimate to ~515k ballots outstanding.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:33:59 PM
?s=21

Trump + 39k in GA with 120k to go, Biden needs ~65%
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:34:22 PM
In other news, due to the dire state of affairs Rabbonim have added a name - the incumbent is now Donald Victor Trump and his opponent is now Joseph Eluzer Biden.
Anyone want to explain as it seems it is liked.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:36:13 PM
Anyone want to explain as it seems it is liked.
There is a practice in Judaism to add a name to direly ill patients in the hope of changing their luck or other spiritual impact that I'm not aware of.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:36:36 PM
Looks very much like Biden is winning Georgia.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:38:56 PM
Looks very much like Biden is winning Georgia.
Can we get a probability update for Biden/Trump winning.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:42:06 PM
Can we get a probability update for Biden/Trump winning.
95% - the data on where the missing ballots are is mostly hearsay, but Trump's options are running out. PA will probably be a significant margin pro Biden.

Biden can win with GA/MI/WI/NV even if Trump takes NC/AZ/PA.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 08:43:03 PM
ABC called Peters (D) in MI
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 08:43:07 PM
Can we get a probability update for Biden/Trump winning.

A little past 9 when AZ dumps, well know if it'll be long week or a short night.
@CountValentine Ill give you the honor of dumping all conservative melt downs.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:44:07 PM
A little past 9 when AZ dumps, well know if it'll be long week or a short night.
@CountValentine Ill give you the honor of dumping all conservative melt downs.
GA & PA can turn blue tonight and AZ won't matter anymore.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 08:44:57 PM
95% - the data on where the missing ballots are is mostly hearsay, but Trump's options are running out. PA will probably be a significant margin pro Biden.

Biden can win with GA/MI/WI/NV even if Trump takes NC/AZ/PA.
NYT still saying 64%, though it hadn't moved all today so perhaps it's done?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 08:45:15 PM
GA & PA can turn blue tonight and AZ won't matter anymore.
Yeah, but those will be fought over a bit harder then AZ...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:46:34 PM
A little past 9 when AZ dumps, well know if it'll be long week or a short night.
@CountValentine Ill give you the honor of dumping all conservative melt downs.
It is never good to gloat.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:48:24 PM
NYT still saying 64%, though it hadn't moved all today so perhaps it's done?
They're probably just not updating it or lacking confidence in the reliability of the data on the uncounted ballots. 64% will still make them geniuses if Biden win, but 90% Biden will make them idiots if Trump Wins

Georgia has 122,000 uncounted absentee ballots, all from Atlanta & Savanaha. Biden may win GA by a larger margin than WI.

This is the landslide.
Yeah, but those will be fought over a bit harder then AZ...
There is no argument to fight with.... Recounts won't swing so many votes...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yef on November 04, 2020, 08:49:07 PM
 Lit all cones down to AZ whoever wins there is the winner of the election
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:51:02 PM
Arizona doesn't matter anymore. If Biden gets 90% of the remaining GA ballots he will win GA with 50k. He was polling 89-9 statewide amongst people who already voted and this is deep blue territory.

Time to pop the champagne.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:51:19 PM
Someone said it earlier but how ironic if AZ is his downfall. Is there such a thing as karma?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:52:00 PM
Arizona doesn't matter anymore. If Biden gets 90% of the remaining GA ballots he will win GA with 50k. He was polling 89-9 statewide amongst people who already voted and this is deep blue territory.

Time to pop the champagne.
AZ was the beginning of the end.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: AsherO on November 04, 2020, 08:52:07 PM
Arizona doesn't matter anymore. If Biden gets 90% of the remaining GA ballots he will win GA with 50k. He was polling 89-9 statewide amongst people who already voted and this is deep blue territory.

Time to pop the champagne.

So youve let go of your 1% Trump and are 100% Biden?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 08:53:11 PM
NYT still saying 64%, though it hadn't moved all today so perhaps it's done?

I was also confused by this, until I eventually noticed that at the top of the page it says that they officially stopped updating it as of 6 am, so don't read anything into it one way or the other.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:53:41 PM
Someone said it earlier but how ironic if AZ is his downfall. Is there such a thing as karma?
Joe McCain is celebrating with us from the grave.
So youve let go of your 1% Trump and are 100% Biden?
I'm at 5% - the data on uncounted ballots isn't reliable
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yef on November 04, 2020, 08:54:22 PM
Since just about all of platinum guys  Democratic pollster predications from pre election were just about all wrong, can We assume the same for all of his post election predictions!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 08:54:54 PM
I'm at 5% - the data on uncounted ballots isn't reliable
What did you start at?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 08:55:16 PM
Arizona doesn't matter anymore. If Biden gets 90% of the remaining GA ballots he will win GA with 50k. He was polling 89-9 statewide amongst people who already voted and this is deep blue territory.

Time to pop the champagne.

There are some outstanding rural that lean R, can be tight, or swing, basically no one knows.. That's the fun part.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Baruch on November 04, 2020, 08:55:54 PM
NYT still saying 64%, though it hadn't moved all today so perhaps it's done?
They froze the needles this morning
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:56:15 PM
What did you start at?
I've given Trump as high as 40% at the peak of things last night. I was 1% Tuesday morning, 10% when he won Florida.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 08:57:55 PM
How in flaming tarnation does Arizona not count a single vote all day? They were supposed to release votes earlier today and still nothing.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:58:17 PM
There are some outstanding rural that lean R, can be tight, or swing, basically no one knows.. That's the fun part.
I think the reports are GA is only missing absentees. But I wouldn't trust the reports too much.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 08:58:55 PM
I think the reports are GA is only missing absentees. But I wouldn't trust the reports too much.
In rural as well not only d...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 08:59:02 PM
Someone said it earlier but how ironic if AZ is his downfall. Is there such a thing as karma?
AZ going to Biden is McCain's final revenge against the draft dodger in chief.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 08:59:11 PM
How in flaming tarnation does Arizona not count a single vote all day? They were supposed to release votes earlier today and still nothing.
They report at once, called a dump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 08:59:17 PM
How in flaming tarnation does Arizona not count a single vote all day? They were supposed to release votes earlier today and still nothing.

I believe I read that they're expected to release some #s at 9 pm EST, and possibly another batch at 12:30. We'll see in a few minutes...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 08:59:29 PM
How in flaming tarnation does Arizona not count a single vote all day? They were supposed to release votes earlier today and still nothing.
Rupert Murdoch knows something we don't, that's for sure.
In rural as well not only d...
Biden polled 89-8 with absentees statewide.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 09:00:54 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 09:03:23 PM
They report at once, called a dump.

Yet they were supposed to dump votes earlier today and still nothing.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 09:03:30 PM
I've given Trump as high as 40% at the peak of things last night. I was 1% Tuesday morning, 10% when he won Florida.
So you started at 1% and ended at 5%. Basically giving him no chance. Like I said you are our go to guy!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 09:04:13 PM
I believe I read that they're expected to release some #s at 9 pm EST, and possibly another batch at 12:30. We'll see in a few minutes...

First it was Arizona reporting today, then 7pm, 8pm, 9pm, it seems like they actually releasing now though.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: EliJelly on November 04, 2020, 09:05:09 PM

(https://i.postimg.cc/wx1GCcVt/IMG-6243.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/PNkyZD0h)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 09:05:44 PM
Trump behind 79k now in AZ, from 93k, with 2% more reported, according to AP tracker.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 09:06:41 PM
NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 4, 9:04 PM
According to the Georgia secretary of state, there are now 122,535 absentee ballots left to be counted in Georgia, while Trump has just a 38,126-vote lead over Biden. At the rate Biden has been picking up votes, its very possible hell close that gap. However, we may have to wait a while for a projection. While Fulton County is expected to report all its absentees tonight, at least two counties will be taking more time: Chatham County (home of Savannah) will definitely not finish tonight, while Gwinnett County will begin adjudicating (essentially double-checking) ballots it has already reported tomorrow (some changes are expected). The county says this process will take until Saturday, but the secretary of state insists that all counting will be done by Friday.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 09:08:42 PM
Trump behind 79k now in AZ, from 93k, with 2% more reported, according to AP tracker.
SOS on CNN. Trump counties have smaller outstanding votes.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 09:09:49 PM
Trump behind 79k now in AZ, from 93k, with 2% more reported, according to AP tracker.
They already called it for Biden, though. According to them technically his only shot is Nevada.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 09:10:01 PM
Trump behind 79k now in AZ, from 93k, with 2% more reported, according to AP tracker.
Extrapolated numbers without knowing more background really means nothing, but for the fun of it, if he gains 14k votes every 2%, he would win.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 09:11:01 PM
They already called it for Biden, though. According to them technically his only shot is Nevada.
Forget what was called. We all know AZ is a better shot for Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 09:12:43 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 04, 2020, 09:13:07 PM
Forget what was called. We all know AZ is a better shot for Trump.
And I hope Trump wins this just for the karma... we got plenty karma today, might just get this.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 09:14:16 PM
Someone said it earlier but how ironic if AZ is his downfall. Is there such a thing as karma?
Its not just ironic, its actual self-destruction. If he could have just swallowed his ego and shown some respect and humility for a dying/fallen war hero and cancer patient he very possibly might have won this election. AZ voters are very deliberately avenging their beloved late Senator.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 09:15:30 PM
They already called it for Biden, though. According to them technically his only shot is Nevada.

Arizona was called ridiculously early. Trump is right about that. I don't care what Fox says about their 4 standard deviations-calling it when they did with the outstanding votes was irresponsible.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: EliJelly on November 04, 2020, 09:17:25 PM
Its not just ironic, its actual self-destruction. If he could have just swallowed his ego and shown some respect and humility for a dying/fallen war hero and cancer patient he very possibly might have won this election. AZ voters are very deliberately avenging their beloved late Senator.
True but definitely a blue wave too. Hence the senate seat loss.

Eta. unless a senate seat didn't bring the never Trump R's out.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 09:17:41 PM
Its not just ironic, its actual self-destruction. If he could have just swallowed his ego and shown some respect and humility for a dying/fallen war hero and cancer patient he very possibly might have won this election. AZ voters are very deliberately avenging their beloved late Senator.

They probably didn't vote Biden, but didn't vote Trump either.

Joe Arpaio wasn't even popular when Trump pardoned him. That didn't buy him any Maricopa votes.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 09:20:22 PM
Hence the senate seat loss.
That makes his point stronger.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: EliJelly on November 04, 2020, 09:21:07 PM
That makes his point stronger.
How so?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 09:21:18 PM
True but definitely a blue wave too. Hence the senate seat loss.

Eta. unless a senate seat didn't bring the never Trump R's out.
That might be a down ballot loss because of anger at Trump if that makes any sense
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 09:22:20 PM
Extrapolated numbers without knowing more background really means nothing, but for the fun of it, if he gains 14k votes every 2%, he would win.
They say he got 59%. He needs 60%. Would be 3k short, if trend is exactly consistent. That would obviously lead to a major battle there.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 09:22:51 PM
They say he got 59%. He needs 60%. Would be 3k short, if trend is exactly consistent. That would obviously lead to a major battle there.
FRAUD!!

*quickly garners some easy likes from both Ds and Rs*
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 09:23:49 PM
Forget what was called. We all know AZ is a better shot for Trump.
Murdoch probably has insider info in Arizona.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: EliJelly on November 04, 2020, 09:23:53 PM
That might be a down ballot loss because of anger at Trump if that makes any sense
מחוורתא כדשנינן מעיקרא
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 09:24:01 PM
How so?
McSally was joined at the hip with Trump. If anything she receive the brunt of McCain's ghost.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 09:25:14 PM
FRAUD!!

*quickly garners some easy likes from both Ds and Rs*
None from the "I's".  :P
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 09:25:28 PM
AZ GA PA all shaping up to be down to the wire.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 09:26:03 PM
Murdoch probably has insider info in Arizona.
If I was AZ I wouldn't be rushing to publish a Biden win either. Why have the wrath of Rudy Giuliani's lawsuits come down on you? Let them be busy with MI/PA/GA and AZ will report when Trump loses hope.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yelped on November 04, 2020, 09:28:26 PM
Its not just ironic, its actual self-destruction. If he could have just swallowed his ego and shown some respect and humility for a dying/fallen war hero and cancer patient he very possibly might have won this election. AZ voters are very deliberately avenging their beloved late Senator.
That turned off many people elsewhere, too. The fact is (don't ask me for sources, please :) ), many people who voted for Trump looked away at his terrible personality, because they felt he was better than the alternative. But I would not say that they support the disgusting disrespect and disregard he has for many of our upstanding citizens.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 09:30:50 PM
Arizona:
(https://i.postimg.cc/h45Kmds0/BDED546-A-749-B-4874-A867-7-D5-CA37-BA4-C0.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/kDWr3DkV)

Doesnt look like we will know the answer until at least 1 AM, probably not until tomorrow night. Unless GA or NV change the equation first.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 04, 2020, 09:31:44 PM
That might be a down ballot loss because of anger at Trump if that makes any sense

More likely that McSally being such a terrible candidate (at least when it comes to campaigning) dragged Trump down. She lost two consecutive winnable senate races, including one against a candidate who was on tape defending the Taliban.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 09:34:53 PM
Arizona:
(https://i.postimg.cc/h45Kmds0/BDED546-A-749-B-4874-A867-7-D5-CA37-BA4-C0.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/kDWr3DkV)

Doesnt look like we will know the answer until at least 1 AM, probably not until tomorrow night. Unless GA or NV change the equation first.
NV won't report today.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 09:39:05 PM
NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 4, 9:29 PM
As Aaron mentioned, we just got a batch of about 74,000 Maricopa County votes that split 59-41 for Trump. This narrowed Bidens statewide lead to about 79,000 votes. To close that gap, with about 418,000 ballots left to count statewide, Trump would have to win the remaining ballots 59-41. One silver lining for Biden, though: A fair number of those remaining 418,000 ballots are in Pima County, which is bluer then Maricopa.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 09:41:10 PM
Is there a website where you can see all the details with counties etc.. something similar to what's shown on CNN?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 09:41:35 PM
More likely that McSally being such a terrible candidate (at least when it comes to campaigning) dragged Trump down. She lost two consecutive winnable senate races, including one against a candidate who was on tape defending the Taliban.
That is a new one. Senate race dragged Trump down. If nothing else I give the kool-aid drinkers points for being creative.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 09:41:52 PM
Is there a website where you can see all the details with counties etc.. something similar to what's shown on CNN?
I was able to get 2016 data by county from Politico. Not sure that's what you're looking for.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 09:43:04 PM
Is there a website where you can see all the details with counties etc.. something similar to what's shown on CNN?
Actually, ABC has it. Check it out - https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 09:45:10 PM
Actually, ABC has it. Check it out - https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map
Thanks that's good, just missing previous years
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 09:45:38 PM
Back to Nate Silver for a moment.

This guy and his whole model are swimming in eggs now. I mean he has done way worse than 2016. In 2016 he was the outlier giving Trump a 33% chance of winning and he was a hero by some.

This time around, not only were his averages way way off (I will post some crosstabs of averages vs final soon) HE REFUSED TO ADD TRAFALGARs POLL TO HIS POLLING AVERAGE BECAUSE THE QUALITY IS TOO LOW FOR 538!!!!!!!!

Only after a week with a lot of pressure he added it. 
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 09:46:33 PM
Back to Nate Silver for a moment.

This guy and his whole model are swimming in eggs now. I mean he has done way worse than 2016. In 2016 he was the outlier giving Trump a 33% chance of winning and he was a hero by some.

This time around, not only were his averages way way off (I will post some crosstabs of averages vs final soon) HE REFUSED TO ADD TRAFALGARs POLL TO HIS POLLING AVERAGE BECAUSE THE QUALITY IS TOO LOW FOR 538!!!!!!!!

Only after a week with a lot of pressure he added it.
Some poll averages vs results;

OH:
RCP:T+1  538:T+0.5   Final:T+8

IA:
RCP:T+2  538:T+1.5   Final:T+8

FL:
RCP:B+0.7   538:B+2.5  Final:T+4 

WI:
RCP:B+6.7   538:B+8    Final:B+0.5

MI:
RCP:B+4.2   538:B+8    Final:B+1.5

PA:
RCP:B+1.2   538:B+5    Final:B+0.5

NV:
RCP:B+2   538:B+6   Final:B+0.5

While Trafalgar was the most accurate, Quinnipiac was by far the worst. They have a B rating on 538. They deserve a D-. Some other so called A+ pollsters like ABC/Mounmouth/NYT were very bad as well. Will 538 update their ratings to B and upgrade Trafalgar to A?

Will the media learn a lesson this time around? After 2016 they said we are not going to believe polls anymore and very quickly forgot the lesson. My guess, I don't think so.

Does anyone with a popular twitter account mind tweeting this to nate silver? Reply to the tweet below. @Dan

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I love many things about RCP, but if you have an average and 1/3 of it consists of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage and 0% of it consists of live-caller polls, it&#39;s not going to be a very reliable average. <a href="https://t.co/3LTQ7gEwAd">pic.twitter.com/3LTQ7gEwAd</a></p>&mdash; Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 09:46:44 PM
Biden got 71% of another 1800 in GA

GA hoping to publish final 00:00-03:00 tonight.

That is a new one. Senate race dragged Trump down. If nothing else I give the kool-aid drinkers points for being creative.  :)
I think it's widely accepted Kelly being a good candidate helped Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 09:47:24 PM
Some poll averages vs results;
Can it be the polls are fine 90% of the time but haven't figured out how to adjust for Trump?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 09:48:27 PM
I think it's widely accepted Kelly being a good candidate helped Biden.
Yes he was and he honored McCain!!!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 09:49:58 PM
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 09:51:07 PM
NYT just reported that AZ will be releasing more Maricopa #s at about 1 am, followed by another batch ... tomorrow night at 9 pm!
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 09:52:13 PM
NYT just reported that AZ will be releasing more Maricopa #s at about 1 am, followed by another batch ... tomorrow night at 9 pm!
If I was AZ I wouldn't be rushing to publish a Biden win either. Why have the wrath of Rudy Giuliani's lawsuits come down on you? Let them be busy with MI/PA/GA and AZ will report when Trump loses hope.

Murdoch knows though.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yo ssi on November 04, 2020, 09:53:42 PM
Actually, ABC has it. Check it out - https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map
More details here
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 09:55:21 PM
Biden can still lose NV/AZ/PA but win with GA & NC
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 09:55:29 PM
Can it be the polls are fine 90% of the time but haven't figured out how to adjust for Trump?

If they were only wrong about Trump I could hear, but they were off badly on so many Senatorial races. And even if you want to say the R Senators picked up Trump's coattails (not sure you'd ever say such a thing though), but what about the House? The D's were supposed to gain 10-20 in the House, and now they're something like -5 and possibly worse as more races get called. Those races are much more local and shouldn't be as impacted by a purported Trump error factor.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 09:56:12 PM
They report at once, called a dump.

You can call it a dump, I call it a drip.
At this pace itll take another 5 days to get the AZ results.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Traveler718 on November 04, 2020, 10:00:12 PM
(https://i.postimg.cc/tgYVDT3x/Screenshot-20201104-215921-Messages.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/kVP4g7hJ)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 10:00:28 PM
Trump lead in PA 186k.
800k outstanding
Biden needs 61-63%
Biden has been getting 78% of these ballots.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 10:00:32 PM
Can it be the polls are fine 90% of the time but haven't figured out how to adjust for Trump?
C'mon man.... They had 4 years.   I didn't ask you to figure it out. It is their business. And while Trump is indeed not the regular candidate he is not an Elephant. Shouldn't be so hard to figure out. THese pollsters were either grossly incompetent or part of the DNC looking to suppress the R vote.

Either, should earn them a D rating.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 10:03:07 PM
GA: Now another 6,680 votes counted, Biden wins 79.4% of them. Biden trails by 33k. Needs to win about 67% of remaining votes to pass Trump, depending on the exact number of outstanding ballots. Still trending positive for Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 10:05:08 PM
If they were only wrong about Trump I could hear, but they were off badly on so many Senatorial races. And even if you want to say the R Senators picked up Trump's coattails (not sure you'd ever say such a thing though), but what about the House? The D's were supposed to gain 10-20 in the House, and now they're something like -5 and possibly worse as more races get called. Those races are much more local and shouldn't be as impacted by a purported Trump error factor.

There was very high turnout. Turnout is difficult to predict and factor in, especially with the unprecedented variables this year.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: YitzyS on November 04, 2020, 10:06:20 PM
Great site for election results, with an excellent record for calling races correctly. I know a few media outlets that use this site's data, and it's been highly recommended to me.

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 10:09:41 PM
There was very high turnout. Turnout is difficult to predict and factor in, especially with the unprecedented variables this year.

IOW, polling is difficult and useless when it's needed most.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 10:09:54 PM
C'mon man.... They had 4 years.   I didn't ask you to figure it out. It is their business. And while Trump is indeed not the regular candidate he is not an Elephant. Shouldn't be so hard to figure out. THese pollsters were either grossly incompetent or part of the DNC looking to suppress the R vote.

Either, should earn them a D rating.
What about 2018 when Trump wasn't running?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 10:11:07 PM
Everyone is trashing the polls. If you want to PUOSU I can start another thread.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 10:12:00 PM
More details here
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
Let's be real, what percentage of people here pay for their news :)
Someone start a poll.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 10:14:27 PM
I didn't see this theory anywhere but I think it's simple mate if you figured out Trumps mind by now.

If this is turning out the way its looking like it will (PA going to Biden and then the others won't help Trump anyway) Trump will conceded within the next few days. He already knows by heart that he lost. But we all know him. He can't ba a loser. He said yesterday very openly "I hate losing"

So his strategy is to say for a couple of days that he really won PA/MI and the dems stole it for him. He will say that he is conceding because he is not interested in picking a fight. But he really won. Once he sees that his base believes that he really won he will conceded.   [And right away start his 2024 campaign.] (btw, in 2024 he will still be younger than bernie sanders is now...) I think this will end fairly quickly.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 10:14:48 PM
Everyone is trashing the polls. If you want to PUOSU I can start another thread.  :)

Trashing the polls is nothing new. PUOSU means betting on the polls, not on the winner.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 04, 2020, 10:17:37 PM
I didn't see this theory anywhere but I think it's simple mate if you figured out Trumps mind by now.

If this is turning out the way its looking like it will (PA going to Biden and then the others won't help Trump anyway) Trump will conceded within the next few days. He already knows by heart that he lost. But we all know him. He can't ba a loser. He said yesterday very openly "I hate losing"

So his strategy is to say for a couple of days that he really won PA/MI and the dems stole it for him. He will say that he is conceding because he is not interested in picking a fight. But he really won. Once he sees that his base believes that he really won he will conceded.   [And right away start his 2024 campaign.] (btw, in 2024 he will still be younger than bernie sanders is now...) I think this will end fairly quickly.
I dont think he will concede as it is obvious that there is fraud going on...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 10:18:07 PM
What about 2018 when Trump wasn't running?
What's your question? That they were more accurate then?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 04, 2020, 10:18:37 PM
NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 9:55 PM
Fundamentally, the issue for Trump is that while Georgia projects to be very close and Arizona at least in my view projects to be very close, Biden is way ahead of the pace he needs to overtake Trump in Pennsylvania. If it were three toss-ups, that would be one thing, but Biden could wind up winning Pennsylvania fairly comfortably.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 10:20:07 PM
Trashing the polls is nothing new. PUOSU means betting on the polls, not on the winner.
It is simple. Did the poll correctly pick the outcome not how close to the it score was. That is what odds are for and you seem to be confusing the two. Either way maybe I need a new PUOSU thread.  :)
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 10:20:19 PM
Great site for election results, with an excellent record for calling races correctly. I know a few media outlets that use this site's data, and it's been highly recommended to me.

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/
They have the same AZ numbers as everyone else, but say 99% of votes are in. So basically the night is over.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 10:20:36 PM
What's your question? That they were more accurate then?
They got more right.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 10:20:47 PM
I dont think he will concede as it is obvious that there is fraud going on...
LOL
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 10:26:19 PM
NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 9:55 PM
Fundamentally, the issue for Trump is that while Georgia projects to be very close and Arizona at least in my view projects to be very close, Biden is way ahead of the pace he needs to overtake Trump in Pennsylvania. If it were three toss-ups, that would be one thing, but Biden could wind up winning Pennsylvania fairly comfortably.

I think Biden has a shot at PA, but it'll be under 1%. With those margins, the Trump lawsuit machine will go nuts. It'll be healthier all around if PA isn't the clincher, honestly.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 10:29:46 PM
They have the same AZ numbers as everyone else, but say 99% of votes are in. So basically the night is over.

I don't think they changed since earlier today, when all the sites were reporting 99% due to a reporting error and later retracted when error was corrected.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 10:30:41 PM
It is simple. Did the poll correctly pick the outcome not how close to the it score was. That is what odds are for and you seem to be confusing the two. Either way maybe I need a new PUOSU thread.  :)

If you know how polls work, there isn't a single poll saying that X is winning the election. You have to string together individual polls from each state to determine the outcome, or better yet, string together an average of many polls. If a poll says Biden +6 in PA and it ends up Biden +1 it's wrong on the outcome. If a vote flips from Biden +1 to Trump +1 that's an accurate poll with an accurate outcome within the margin of error.

Also,

Just because things turned out a certain way doesn't mean you were right
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 10:30:47 PM
They got more right.
For example FL?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 10:33:08 PM
If you know how polls work, there isn't a single poll saying that X is winning the election. You have to string together individual polls from each state to determine the outcome, or better yet, string together an average of many polls. If a poll says Biden +6 in PA and it ends up Biden +1 it's wrong on the outcome. If a vote flips from Biden +1 to Trump +1 that's an accurate poll with an accurate outcome within the margin of error.
I disagree and posted about polls vs odds extensively.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 10:33:41 PM
For example FL?
Overall
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 10:34:53 PM
I disagree and posted about polls vs odds extensively.

Don't know why you keep yapping about odds when all anyone here is talking about is inaccurate polls. If anyone wants to bet on odds they'd do it on a gambling site.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: aygart on November 04, 2020, 10:36:40 PM
I disagree and posted about polls vs odds extensively.
Either way their usefulness drops significantly if they are off by that much.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 10:38:03 PM
The last time a democrat won Georgia was Clinton in 1996



They have the same AZ numbers as everyone else, but say 99% of votes are in. So basically the night is over.
No way the 99% is accurate

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 10:38:46 PM
The last time a democrat won Georgia was Clinton in 1996

Last time the president lost Ohio?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Dan on November 04, 2020, 10:40:22 PM
Last time the president lost Ohio?
1960
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 10:41:18 PM
Don't know why you keep yapping about odds when all anyone here is talking about is inaccurate polls. If anyone wants to bet on odds they'd do it on a gambling site.
Once you get into accuracy you now are talking about odds. All I am saying is they are right more than they are wrong.
There is no poll (over a set length of time) and there has never been any poll that is accurate based on your criteria.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 04, 2020, 10:46:24 PM
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 10:50:23 PM
Crowds amassing outside Maricopa counting facility. Ironically, here the Trumpsters want to count the votes


?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 10:52:50 PM
Crowds amassing outside Maricopa counting facility. Ironically, here the Trumpsters want to count the votes
Probably antifa just dressed differently?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 10:52:59 PM
Once you get into accuracy you now are talking about odds. All I am saying is they are right more than they are wrong.

You're betting Patriots to cover against the Jets and calling it a win when they fail to cover because the Pats end up winning. I'm being generous, I'm spotting you an extra 3 points to cover the spread, and you still call it a win when they fail to cover.

Quote
There is no poll (over a set length of time) and there has never been any poll that is accurate based on your criteria.

So we are all in agreement that polls are not accurate :D
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Yehuda57 on November 04, 2020, 10:54:16 PM
Its not just ironic, its actual self-destruction. If he could have just swallowed his ego and shown some respect and humility for a dying/fallen war hero and cancer patient he very possibly might have won this election. AZ voters are very deliberately avenging their beloved late Senator.

If this were true, we'd probably see two Republican senators even with a Biden win
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 10:59:42 PM
You're betting Patriots to cover against the Jets and calling it a win when they fail to cover because the Pats end up winning. I'm being generous, I'm spotting you an extra 3 points to cover the spread, and you still call it a win when they fail to cover.
I give up.  ::)
So we are all in agreement that polls are not accurate :D
They never were and never will be by your criteria.
They are right more than they are wrong. You, me or anyone else will never beat them in the long run. That is what the PUOSU is about.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 11:05:36 PM
I give up.  ::)They never were and never will be by your criteria.
They are right more than they are wrong. You, me or anyone else will never beat them in the long run. That is what the PUOSU is about.

All I'm saying is that they should be accurate within the margin of error. If the error is more than 3%, it's not accurate and I feel comfortable betting against their accuracy. Alternatively, pollsters can stop being so cocky and tell you the truth that they don't know anything and the actual margin of error is far higher than 3% and as high as 15%.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ah giten on November 04, 2020, 11:06:15 PM
Probably antifa just dressed differently?
It's not antifa because MSNBC is "scared to death" of this crowd.
If it were antifa, they would be feeling mostly peaceful.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 11:11:45 PM
All I'm saying is that they should be accurate within the margin of error. If the error is more than 3%, it's not accurate and I feel comfortable betting against their accuracy. Alternatively, pollsters can stop being so cocky and tell you the truth that they don't know anything and the actual margin of error is far higher than 3% and as high as 15%.
We are on the same page on what they should be or what we want them to be. My point is what they are. A predictor of the outcome.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Boruch Parnes on November 04, 2020, 11:12:18 PM
Does trump have enough evidence of voter fraud to prove that the results are skewed?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 11:13:03 PM
Does trump have enough any evidence of voter fraud to prove that the results are skewed?
FTFY
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 11:15:02 PM
How long till the Senate starts looking to impeach Biden?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yitzgar on November 04, 2020, 11:16:08 PM
How long till the Senate starts looking to impeach Biden?
Until the end of time. Senate can't impeach
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 04, 2020, 11:16:30 PM
How long till the Senate starts looking to impeach Biden?
They can't without the house, no?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: S209 on November 04, 2020, 11:16:45 PM
Until the end of time. Senate can't impeach
Of course, but they can begin investigations
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yitzgar on November 04, 2020, 11:17:50 PM
Can a president be impeached for something he did before he was in office?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: drosenberg88429 on November 04, 2020, 11:18:40 PM
PA is collapsing for team Trump.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 04, 2020, 11:18:49 PM
They can't without the house, no?

So 2022? Will he still be around?

Also, what are the chances we get a special counsel on the Hunter Biden stuff?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 04, 2020, 11:19:21 PM
Can a president be impeached for something he did before he was in office?

We've learned that a president can be impeached for anything the house wants to impeach him for.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 11:19:41 PM
Doesnt senate need supermajority to impeach?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Afrages6 on November 04, 2020, 11:21:00 PM
Doesnt senate need supermajority to impeach?
Convict yes, impeachment happens in the house.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: TimT on November 04, 2020, 11:21:39 PM
How long till the Senate starts looking to impeach Biden?
Why would they do this ? Would they rather deal with Harris ?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: yuneeq on November 04, 2020, 11:23:10 PM
We are on the same page on what they should be or what we want them to be. My point is what they are. A predictor of the outcome.

Duh, they're usually a predictor of the the winner because many races aren't tight. But when it's a tight race they're unreliable. 
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: joe1234 on November 04, 2020, 11:23:20 PM
Why would they do this ? Would they rather deal with Harris ?
Tic for tac for stepping on trumps toe.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 11:41:18 PM
Why would they do this ?
For the same reason dems impeached Trump...
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: TimT on November 04, 2020, 11:46:49 PM
For the same reason dems impeached Trump...
They hated Trump & wanted him gone. You dont want Biden stepping down & having to deal with Harris.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 11:48:24 PM
It's not clear how much of the 600k outstanding ballots in AZ are from actual late mail in which favors Rs and how much are absentee ballots being actually dropped off in person which heavily favor Rs and would go +25 for Trump.

If there is a lot in person drop offs then he will carry Arizona. The point is just because it absentee ballots doesn't mean automatically it will favor biden. It is not PA.. It works different.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ilherman on November 04, 2020, 11:55:13 PM
While most of us seem to think that this is over, the betting markets are still giving Trump a 15-20% chance of winning. Basically thru PA/AZ. Both states have about 15-20% chance of going to Trump.   We shall see if they know what we don't.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 04, 2020, 11:57:53 PM
?s=21
?s=21

Not seeing anybody else with the last dump, but it brings Trump's lead to 15k votes in GA with 60k+ to go.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 05, 2020, 12:02:05 AM
Can Biden give some republican senators cabinet positions to get democrat senators instead?
Nobody thinks there's a possibility Biden gives Collins a cabinet position or UK ambassador and Maine Gov gives him a Democrat Senator? That would make the senate 49-49 with 1-2 GA runoffs.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: zh cohen on November 05, 2020, 12:03:44 AM
Nobody thinks there's a possibility Biden gives Collins a cabinet position or UK ambassador and Maine Gov gives him a Democrat Senator? That would make the senate 49-49 with 1-2 GA runoffs.

Why do you think she would accept it?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: ShimshonK on November 05, 2020, 12:05:46 AM
While most of us seem to think that this is over, the betting markets are still giving Trump a 15-20% chance of winning. Basically thru PA/AZ. Both states have about 15-20% chance of going to Trump.   We shall see if they know what we don't.
If PA and AZ each have 15-20% odds for Trump, and he needs both, the percentage should be dropped in half. Now, he doesn't technically need both, because he can take NV instead of AZ, but definitely should be lower odds than the odds to win PA alone.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 05, 2020, 12:11:50 AM
Why do you think she would accept it?
Isn't it an upgrade? Maybe even Education Department?
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Toasted on November 05, 2020, 12:15:07 AM
If PA and AZ each have 15-20% odds for Trump, and he needs both, the percentage should be dropped in half. Now, he doesn't technically need both, because he can take NV instead of AZ, but definitely should be lower odds than the odds to win PA alone.
Even lower.  .22 = .04
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: how on November 05, 2020, 12:15:19 AM
Whether wrong or right, Fox News early call of AZ for Biden likely prevented major civil unrest. If Arizona wouldnt have been called, Trump wouldve long-ago claimed victory and moved on, when so many other states were clearly in play.

Pure Hashgocha
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 05, 2020, 12:17:29 AM
Whether wrong or right, Fox News early call of AZ for Biden likely prevented major civil unrest. If Arizona wouldnt have been called, Trump wouldve long-ago claimed victory and moved on, when so many other states were clearly in play.

Pure Hashgocha
BH, agreed,
?s=21
?s=21

Not seeing anybody else with the last dump, but it brings Trump's lead to 15k votes in GA with 60k+ to go.
?s=21
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: Let3 on November 05, 2020, 12:17:35 AM
FTFY
https://www.judicialwatch.org/in-the-news/1-8-mill-ghost-voters/
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 05, 2020, 12:19:04 AM
Still 17k to go in Fulton alone.... Which should bring Trump to under 5k lead... And there are still many more.

USPS can tilt this, any chance courts will force them to count undelivered ballots?

Not to mention the curable mail-in
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: CountValentine on November 05, 2020, 12:20:34 AM
2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
2   Joe Biden      -800   
1   Donald Trump      +580   
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 05, 2020, 12:26:20 AM
Still 17k to go in Fulton alone.... Which should bring Trump to under 5k lead... And there are still many more.

USPS can tilt this, any chance courts will force them to count undelivered ballots?

Not to mention the curable mail-in
Nail-biting #s with some other D districts missing  some ballots counted.

Recount with court battle very likely.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 05, 2020, 12:30:26 AM
For all those watching GA tightly, try this link, it has some updated info on outstanding ballots.
Then compare the outstanding county's to those of the 2016 map and you'll see how tight it can get.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/about-200000-absentee-ballots-still-need-to-be-counted-in-georgia/BYGJAXV5FRBGBAMA6JPIC7ZL34/

Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 05, 2020, 12:34:04 AM
?s=20

GN.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 05, 2020, 12:35:06 AM
?s=20

GN.
Keep in mind that's in person stats. Mail-ins are biased Biden.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: KSMH on November 05, 2020, 12:38:31 AM
Keep in mind that's in person stats. Mail-ins are biased Biden.
Good point.


Fun starts.
Title: Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on November 05, 2020, 12:39:35 AM
BH, agreed, ?s=2