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DansDeals Forum => COVID-19 Discussion Board => Topic started by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 09:18:17 PM

Title: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 09:18:17 PM
Putting this forward as a draft. Perhaps we should make a wiki to centralize the refutations and supporting evidence to each common claim.

#1 Covid isn’t deadly & it only affects the elderly and immunocompromised

There is significant excess mortality everywhere where Covid ran wild.

There is overwhelming evidence of long term damage occurring in a large percentage of young covid patients without any pre-existing conditions

Spread always starts in younger demos and inevitably filters through to the elderly and LTC facilities. Sweden utterly failed in their strategy of protecting the high risk. A year into this, 25% of Covid deaths are still in old age homes. If you infect somebody, it is sparking a fire you cannot contain and cannot estimate how far it will go (in Hilchos Nizkin one is Chayev for all damage his flames inflict provided they are propelled by prevalent natural powers). 1 person is likely responsible for ~50,000 cases in New Orleans.

#2 Gatherings aren't dangerous / people who don't wear masks don't die

There have been several threads dedicated to this argument. Most drunk drivers get home safely. The fact that many gatherings go on without creating any infections, in no way proves they didn't raise the likelihood of larger outbreaks.

The fact that many people don't wear masks and live on, in no way proves people who wear masks aren't a little safer.

As an illustration, Republican politicians had ~3x covid infections and deaths than Democrats.

#3 Protective measures aren’t foolproof

We follow safety precautions that offer partial mitigation even if they don’t always work, such as seatbelts and many medical treatments

#4 Masks don’t help

Sneeze into your mask and see the difference. We understand why masks would help, and there are CDC evaluations showing outcomes diverged significantly between similarly situated jurisdictions depending on mask mandated


#5 Kids/schools don’t spread Covid

Baseless. The most extreme studies only show a 50% reduction in transmission in kids under 10. That it still plenty of transmission.  There is also overwhelming evidence the UK Mutation B117 is highly transmittable even amongst kids and infants.

#6 Exposure != infection

Many people are exposed to positive Covid carriers but happened not to be infected. This can be for a large variety of reasons: The carrier was never replicating the virus enough to spread to another person (low viral loads), by the time it started replicating enough, the carrier’s body neutralized the virus sufficiently for it to be too weak to infect another person, the time interval between when the replicating begun and neutralizing was brief (this is likely why some family members get infected and not other), you can just be lucky and the virus particles die or disperse before infecting somebody, or somebody’s body fended off an infection before it elicited an enduring immune response.

#7 We are immune

There are many documented cases of individuals who had covid and tested positive for antibodies, and got reinfected. There are also some whose original infection gets reactivated. We know this is rare, but it isn’t clear yet how rare.

On a community level, we know from Manaus, Brazil that even if 75%+ of a community is immune, Covid can still spread rapidly in a large outbreaks. Part of the reason is because of unequal dispersion of super-spreaders - since 1 person can infect 100, herd immunity doesn’t prevent the virus from spreading. In a gathering of 1000 people, there are still 300 susceptible patients

Many frum communities believes themselves immune only to be hit with large outbreaks

#8 Demonize the messenger

We never put our faith in a single person or establish reality based on one mans’ say. Moshe Rabeinu was wrong several times. We establish medical realities by the consensus of educated opinions, not by any sole authority. Fauci, the dems, and the media may be the worst evil, but it doesn’t make everything they say wrong.

#9 Precautions are more dangerous than the virus

Closing schools is a powerful and dangerous medicine, but overall suicide deaths are not higher in 2020. There are many protective measures that can be taken without any significant tradeoff. More than 1,000,000,000 wear a mask every day, so it is objectively not that difficult. Large weddings and gatherings can be avoided.

#10 Everybody will get covid sooner or later

In the US and Israel, more people have been vaccinated than have tested positive. This is less than a year in. It is quite foreseeable to avoid the infection altogether.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Lurker on February 10, 2021, 09:22:53 PM
We're exactly one year from the Wuhan lockdown. That any of this even needs to still be addressed is soul-sucking.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Yehuda57 on February 10, 2021, 09:41:04 PM
You make some of the same mistakes as the people you are refuting make in making strawman arguments.

For instance, #4

Yes, masks have been proven to help in an individual basis. But masks mandates have not been proven to lower infection. For every report the CDC mentions, there are another couple that show there hasn't been a reduction in infections in cities with mass mask wearing compared to cities without mass mask wearing.

#5

The argument isn't that kids don't spread it at all, but that it is significantly less, and it is significantly less dangerous for kids.

#8

If the purpose is to convince people, then why include inflammatory statements about Moshe Rabeinu? Kol haomer... Eino ela toeh. You can make the point of being mekabel es haemes without such statements.

#9

Suicide isn't the only sacrifice, and from what I've read, suicide numbers tend to lag a significant amount of time, so I'd hold off on taking that victory lap. Minimizing all the other sacrifices isn't doing "your side" by favors.

But perhaps most of all, I know it's a draft, but there isn't even one shred of evidence for any of your assertions.

I agree with most of what you're saying, and I think a list of accurate information with answers to common questions is useful, just not in a way that discounts legitimate differing opinions, belittles questioners, or exaggerates.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: AsherO on February 10, 2021, 09:57:08 PM
You missed:

I stay away from old people, so I can go on with life as usual.

Frum communities have already reached he(a)rd immunity.

Vaccines aren't proven.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 10:07:43 PM
masks mandates have not been proven to lower infection. For every report the CDC mentions, there are another couple that show there hasn't been a reduction in infections in cities with mass mask wearing compared to cities without mass mask wearing.

Masks work. There aren't two sides to it. It has been proven conclusively here:

1)

Quote
As of August 11, 24 (23%) Kansas counties had a mask mandate in place, and 81 did not. Mandated counties accounted for two thirds of the Kansas population (1,960,703 persons; 67.3%)*** and were spread throughout the state, although they tended to cluster together. Six (25%) mandated and 13 (16%) nonmandated counties were metropolitan areas.††† Thirteen (54%) mandated counties and seven (9%) nonmandated counties had implemented at least one other public health mitigation strategy not related to the use of masks (e.g., limits on size of gatherings and occupancy for restaurants). During June 1–7, 2020, the 7-day rolling average of daily COVID-19 incidence among counties that ultimately had a mask mandate was three cases per 100,000, and among counties that did not, was four per 100,000 (Table). By the week of the governor’s executive order requiring masks (July 3–9), COVID-19 incidence had increased 467% to 17 per 100,000 in mandated counties and 50% to six per 100,000 among nonmandated counties. By August 17–23, 2020, the 7-day rolling average COVID-19 incidence had decreased by 6% to 16 cases per 100,000 among mandated counties and increased by 100% to 12 per 100,000 among nonmandated counties.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e2.htm

2) https://www.ajtmh.org/view/journals/tpmd/103/6/article-p2400.xml?tab_body=fulltext

3) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20048652v1.full-text

4) https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

5) https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30235-8/fulltext



There is precisely zero evidence to the contrary. The Denmark study has been thoroughly debunked. Feel free to post it here for debunkments.

Adding the information to a Wiki as potential template.

Vaccines aren't proven.
We need a separate thread to combat vaccine hesitancy and FUD.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: yitzgar on February 10, 2021, 10:27:28 PM
You make some of the same mistakes as the people you are refuting make in making strawman arguments.

For instance, #4

Yes, masks have been proven to help in an individual basis. But masks mandates have not been proven to lower infection. For every report the CDC mentions, there are another couple that show there hasn't been a reduction in infections in cities with mass mask wearing compared to cities without mass mask wearing.

#5

The argument isn't that kids don't spread it at all, but that it is significantly less, and it is significantly less dangerous for kids.

#8

If the purpose is to convince people, then why include inflammatory statements about Moshe Rabeinu? Kol haomer... Eino ela toeh. You can make the point of being mekabel es haemes without such statements.

#9

Suicide isn't the only sacrifice, and from what I've read, suicide numbers tend to lag a significant amount of time, so I'd hold off on taking that victory lap. Minimizing all the other sacrifices isn't doing "your side" by favors.

But perhaps most of all, I know it's a draft, but there isn't even one shred of evidence for any of your assertions.

I agree with most of what you're saying, and I think a list of accurate information with answers to common questions is useful, just not in a way that discounts legitimate differing opinions, belittles questioners, or exaggerates.
Re #4 there is a big difference between mask wearing and mask mandates. The myth is about mask wearing. From what I understand, what is studied is areas with mask mandates. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Yehuda57 on February 10, 2021, 10:34:46 PM
Re #4 there is a big difference between mask wearing and mask mandates. The myth is about mask wearing. From what I understand, what is studied is areas with mask mandates. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Exactly. I'm not able to read the scientific studies posted, but one doesn't need to have studies done to see that covid case and death rates, in states and cities, do not correlate to mask mandates or even mask wearing.

Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 10:35:36 PM
one doesn't need to have studies done to see that covid case and death rates, in states and cities, do not correlate to mask mandates or even mask wearing.

But, they do.

See #2
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: yitzgar on February 10, 2021, 10:38:29 PM
Exactly. I'm not able to read the scientific studies posted, but one doesn't need to have studies done to see that covid case and death rates, in states and cities, do not correlate to mask mandates or even mask wearing.
I disagree. It's very difficult to study mask wearing, because it's not done properly by so many people. I'm pretty sure they've only studied mask mandates places, but then the news articles have a big headline "masks don't prevent coronavirus", when in fact, it is the mandate which doesn't necessarily do the trick
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 10:44:47 PM
I stay away from old people, so I can go on with life as usual.
edited to include it in #1

Frum communities have already reached he(a)rd immunity.
Aka Covid Fallacy #7
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: YitzyS on February 10, 2021, 11:17:36 PM
Could I already put a link to this in the popcorn thread, or should I troll a little first?
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 11:21:40 PM
Could I already put a link to this in the popcorn thread, or should I troll a little first?
Better popcorn than crickets
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: YitzyS on February 10, 2021, 11:30:20 PM
Better popcorn than crickets
In my view, the list of 10 is written in the most extreme manner, thus making it easy to debunk each claim.

"Covid isn’t deadly & it only affects the elderly and immunocompromised"

That is the type of rhetoric that has been circulating in the early days of the pandemic, and it's doubtful that you'd hear that anywhere today. It would be more useful to debunk the type of claims you'd hear today.

"Covid is statistically only a small risk to young people, and it is therefore not worth it to risk my mental health and comfort to be vigilant."

Debunk that. It's the type of claims you would hear now. Yes, it's easier to debunk the extremes, but it's not going to change anyone's mind here.

That was my impression when I opened this thread. Take it or leave it, but if you leave it you don't get your money back, unless you have Amex return protection.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 10, 2021, 11:50:00 PM
"Covid is statistically only a small risk to young people, and it is therefore not worth it to risk my mental health and comfort to be vigilant."

Debunk that

 
There is overwhelming evidence of long term damage occurring in a large percentage of young covid patients without any pre-existing conditions

I was attempting a sketch a framework, not to singlehandedly debunk every fiction out there, but I just added to the Wiki some material on long term damage to healthy young people.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916

Quote
As of August 11, 24 (23%) Kansas counties had a mask mandate in place, and 81 did not. Mandated counties accounted for two thirds of the Kansas population (1,960,703 persons; 67.3%)*** and were spread throughout the state, although they tended to cluster together. Six (25%) mandated and 13 (16%) nonmandated counties were metropolitan areas.††† Thirteen (54%) mandated counties and seven (9%) nonmandated counties had implemented at least one other public health mitigation strategy not related to the use of masks (e.g., limits on size of gatherings and occupancy for restaurants). During June 1–7, 2020, the 7-day rolling average of daily COVID-19 incidence among counties that ultimately had a mask mandate was three cases per 100,000, and among counties that did not, was four per 100,000 (Table). By the week of the governor’s executive order requiring masks (July 3–9), COVID-19 incidence had increased 467% to 17 per 100,000 in mandated counties and 50% to six per 100,000 among nonmandated counties. By August 17–23, 2020, the 7-day rolling average COVID-19 incidence had decreased by 6% to 16 cases per 100,000 among mandated counties and increased by 100% to 12 per 100,000 among nonmandated counties.

Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Yehuda57 on February 11, 2021, 12:05:20 AM
I disagree. It's very difficult to study mask wearing, because it's not done properly by so many people. I'm pretty sure they've only studied mask mandates places, but then the news articles have a big headline "masks don't prevent coronavirus", when in fact, it is the mandate which doesn't necessarily do the trick

I think we agree. I started by stating that masks do work to stop the spread of Covid. The question is if mask mandates don't work. People not wearing them correctly, or not wearing the correct ones would be an obvious reason.

But, they do.

See #2


You don't have to be a scientist. Pick any jurisdiction in Florida, compare it to a heavily masked one in California. Then do the same in NY in the Bronx and in Brooklyn, or even neighboring areas within Brooklyn itself, where the frum community is largely unmasked and the non Jewish community is masked heavily (double these days), and the death and case rate of the frum communities lies in the middle of the pack.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Yehuda57 on February 11, 2021, 12:12:16 AM
And even if I'm wrong on #4, I mentioned a few others, and omitted some.

The point is that the attitude of this thread is in and of itself so condescendingly smug as to render any purported usefulness moot.

Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: AsherO on February 11, 2021, 12:13:16 AM
Aka Covid Fallacy #7

There's two aspects here:
1. I already had COVID (PCR positive or antibody test confirmed) therefore I can go on with my life as I please and I won't infect anyone.
2. Most of my community had COVID so we have he(a)rd immunity and can therefore go on with our lives as we please.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: yitzgar on February 11, 2021, 12:18:45 AM
There's two aspects here:
1. I already had COVID (PCR positive or antibody test confirmed) therefore I can go on with my life as I please and I won't infect anyone.
2. Most of my community had COVID so we have he(a)rd immunity and can therefore go on with our lives as we please.
3. I already had it because my spouse tested positive and I and my kids had the sniffles at the same time, but we didn't bother getting tested
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: EliJelly on February 11, 2021, 12:25:03 AM
3. I already had it because my spouse tested positive and I and my kids had the sniffles at the same time, but we didn't bother getting tested
How about complete loss of taste & smell in addition to the "sniffles"?

but we didn't bother getting tested
"But testing wasn't available back in March-April" would be more honest.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: yitzgar on February 11, 2021, 12:26:46 AM
How about complete loss of taste & smell in addition to the "sniffles"?
Probably a solid siman. But there are plenty of people in the sniffles group
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 12:31:26 AM
You don't have to be a scientist. Pick any jurisdiction in Florida, compare it to a heavily masked one in California.

You're proving my point. Florida had 28k Covid deaths out of 21m residents , California had 45k out of 40m residents which is ~20% more per capita. CA is doing something better than FL.

In terms of current positive tests, average of the last 7 days in California is 32 per 100,000 and Florida is 10% higher at 35. (Despite the fact CA is doing ~1.5x testing compared to Florida)

I was in Florida a few weeks ago and everybody was masked in restaurants, hotels, and supermarkets. I don't think there is that much of a difference in mask mandates / actual mask wearing between CA & FL, despite media partisan hyperbole.




Then do the same in NY in the Bronx and in Brooklyn, or even neighboring areas within Brooklyn itself, where the frum community is largely unmasked and the non Jewish community is masked heavily (double these days), and the death and case rate of the frum communities lies in the middle of the pack.
I would argue frum deaths in NY are greater than non-Jewish, even today. Can you back up your claim with real data?

Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 12:32:54 AM
There's two aspects here:
1. I already had COVID (PCR positive or antibody test confirmed) therefore I can go on with my life as I please and I won't infect anyone.
2. Most of my community had COVID so we have he(a)rd immunity and can therefore go on with our lives as we please.
You're right, I tried to limit it for brevity. Everybody is welcome to propose better ideas.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Yehuda57 on February 11, 2021, 12:41:53 AM
You're proving my point. Florida had 28k Covid deaths out of 21m residents , California had 45k out of 40m residents which is ~20% more per capita. CA is doing something better than FL.

In terms of current cases, average of the last 7 days in California is 32 per 100,000 and Florida is 10% higher at 35. (Despite the fact CA is doing 2x testing compared to Florida)

I was in Florida a few weeks ago and everybody was masked in restaurants, hotels, and supermarkets. I don't think there is that much of a difference in mask mandates / actual mask wearing between CA & FL, despite media partisan hyperbole.

I said compare jurisdictions within the state. For example

I was in Tampa on Sunday where they had dozens upon dozens of people around ensuring people were masked. A large majority of people were not masked until they were forced to do so entering the stadium. Wherever you were is not indicative or the entire state.


I would argue frum deaths in NY are greater than non-Jewish, even today. Can you back up your claim with real data?

Zip code data is readily available on NY's site.

And again, there are many states on the lower end of the deaths per capita table without enforced mask mandates, and many on the top, like NY, with mass mask compliance.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Euclid on February 11, 2021, 12:51:04 AM
I was in Tampa on Sunday where they had dozens upon dozens of people around ensuring people were masked. A large majority of people were not masked until they were forced to do so entering the stadium.
Wait what? You had tickets???
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Yehuda57 on February 11, 2021, 12:57:17 AM
Wait what? You had tickets???

Perfect way to derail the thread  :P


Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Euclid on February 11, 2021, 12:58:13 AM
Perfect way to derail the thread  :P
Don't ever try to bury the lede.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Euclid on February 11, 2021, 12:58:53 AM
Perfect way to derail the thread  :P
Also an epic humblebrag.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 12:58:57 AM
I said compare jurisdictions within the state. For example

Seriously cherry picking by county?

Imperial, CA median income is $18,000 and unemployment is 19%. It has 3x Cvoid deaths than the rest of the state. 44% of the county have diabetes & 15% have Asthma . Hispanics and Latinos make up 85% of the county’s population, and they account for 92% of the coronavirus deaths.
 
Collier, FL median income is $31,000 and unemployment is 3.5%. It has 2x less death then the rest of its state.

Sure, mask mandate alone won't stop a pandemic.

there are many states on the lower end of the deaths per capita table without enforced mask mandates, and many on the top, like NY, with mass mask compliance.
All that proves is that other factors may have more influence than masks. It in no way disproves my claim that there is plenty of data that masks are effective and no data that proves masks aren't effective.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Yehuda57 on February 11, 2021, 01:00:27 AM
Another point in comparing FL to CA, we know that travel increases the spread of Covid, and FL has been flooded since March, and especially in winter months. CA, on the other hand, not so much. Do a search for flights to California, and you'll find their number has been cut dramatically, which is not the case for Florida.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Yehuda57 on February 11, 2021, 01:03:45 AM
Seriously cherry picking by county?

Imperial, CA median income is $18,000 and unemployment is 19%. It has 3x Cvoid deaths than the rest of the state. 44% of the county have diabetes & 15% have Asthma . Hispanics and Latinos make up 85% of the county’s population, and they account for 92% of the coronavirus deaths.
 
Collier, FL median income is $31,000 and unemployment is 3.5%. It has 2x less death then the rest of its state.

Sure, mask mandate alone won't stop a pandemic.
All that proves is that other factors may have more influence than masks. It in no way disproves my claim that there is plenty of data that masks are effective and no data that proves masks aren't effective.

I've said repeatedly that masks work, but that masks mandates... Not so much.

Either way, I'm done with this argument, consider me thoroughly debunked on one point. That still doesn't account for the numerous other strawman arguments and inflammatory language.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 01:42:59 AM
we know that travel increases the spread of Covid
Not really, only if they're coming from somewhere where Covid was more prevalent.

Pax who come from somewhere Covid is less prevalent are making Covid less prevalent where they land.

I've said repeatedly that masks work, but that masks mandates... Not so much.
You have yet to bring a single piece of proof to support that, and haven't disputed the proof I brought.

Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 08:42:50 PM
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: yitzgar on February 11, 2021, 11:18:20 PM
Why is that true? Aren't the kids in the community otherwise? So they are part of the 10
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 11, 2021, 11:21:33 PM
Why is that true? Aren't the kids in the community otherwise? So they are part of the 10
They are in school in the morning and the community in the afternoon so have the best of both worlds...
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: yitzgar on February 11, 2021, 11:28:44 PM
They are in school in the morning and the community in the afternoon so have the best of both worlds...
I guess. They are in the community significantly less if they are spending 6-7 hours a day in school
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: S209 on February 12, 2021, 12:03:48 AM
I guess. They are in the community significantly less if they are spending 6-7 hours a day in school
The assumption is that they would be in school as opposed to being home learning on Zoom, not as opposed to being at the mall. Thus increasing spread, not decreasing it.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: S209 on February 12, 2021, 12:09:16 AM
(A conversation that’s more common than you’d think)

Him: “Yanky isn’t feeling well today, but don’t worry- it’s not COVID!”
Me: “How do you know it’s not COVID?”
Him:“Come on, why would it be COVID? You never heard of getting a fever? He gets this every year.”
Me: “Why don’t you just test him?”
Him: “I’m not going to test him, I don’t want to have to quarantine!”


.....And that’s when I killed him, Your Honor.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: yitzgar on February 12, 2021, 12:13:17 AM
(A conversation that’s more common than you’d think)

Him: “Yanky isn’t feeling well today, but don’t worry- it’s not COVID!”
Me: “How do you know it’s not COVID?”
Him:“Come on, why would it be COVID? You never heard of getting a fever? He gets this every year.”
Me: “Why don’t you just test him?”
Him: “I’m not going to test him, I don’t want to have to quarantine!”


.....And that’s when I killed him, Your Honor.
Me: "If he has fever, you should probably test him"
Him: "well if you test every time someone has a headache, you might as well test everyone twice a day"
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: yuneeq on February 12, 2021, 02:15:30 AM
Debunk this

(https://i.postimg.cc/VLXHnhQT/4-E891-E95-53-E1-446-B-92-ED-52-ED6-E33-E787.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: yuneeq on February 12, 2021, 02:17:00 AM
Why take a vaccine that’s only 95% effective for a virus that 99.8% survive?
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: YitzyS on February 12, 2021, 07:55:47 AM
Why take a vaccine that’s only 95% effective for a virus that 99.8% survive?
For the same reason you have Verizon service.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: avromie7 on February 12, 2021, 10:20:32 AM
The assumption is that they would be in school as opposed to being home learning on Zoom, not as opposed to being at the mall. Thus increasing spread, not decreasing it.
This assumption is ridiculous. Kids are out and about, causing way more spread than they would if schools would be open.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Lurker on February 12, 2021, 10:47:41 AM
This assumption is ridiculous. Kids are out and about, causing way more spread than they would if schools would be open.

You have to consider that many places are not like the system you live in. For example, when my kid was on Zoom, interaction was limited to people in our neighborhood, and it was always outdoors. Now we're dealing with an indoor classroom, and with kids from 7 other communities. That's a huge difference.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: avromie7 on February 12, 2021, 10:50:32 AM
You have to consider that many places are not like the system you live in. For example, when my kid was on Zoom, interaction was limited to people in our neighborhood, and it was always outdoors. Now we're dealing with an indoor classroom, and with kids from 7 other communities. That's a huge difference.
I'm not talking about lakewood, I'm talking about most public school students. There's a reason attendance has been abysmal, and it's not because they're sitting at home all day.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: Lurker on February 12, 2021, 10:53:53 AM
I'm not talking about lakewood, I'm talking about most public school students. There's a reason attendance has been abysmal, and it's not because they're sitting at home all day.

Public school kids often come from multiple communities, too. Many of these kids have no circles in common outside of school. And again, there are limited places they can hang out indoors. You can't compare sitting in a classroom with roaming around the city.

Don't get me wrong: I'm not saying keep schools closed. But don't pretend the transmission rate would be lower if they would be in school.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: S209 on February 12, 2021, 11:06:25 AM
This assumption is ridiculous. Kids are out and about, causing way more spread than they would if schools would be open.
You are asserting that children would be engaging in higher risk activities than attending school for the same duration as they would be attending school, which which you’re almost certainly wrong about (not least because of course the majority are learning on Zoom during that time). It’s more likely that the reason spread is lower in schools is because children themselves are less likely to contract COVID and also less likely to transmit COVID- not because schools themselves are inherently low risk. This applies in non-school settings as well, of course. On the contrary, you’d be hard pressed to find a higher risk activity.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: aygart on February 12, 2021, 11:43:21 AM
You are asserting that children would be engaging in higher risk activities than attending school for the same duration as they would be attending school, which which you’re almost certainly wrong about (not least because of course the majority are learning on Zoom during that time). It’s more likely that the reason spread is lower in schools is because children themselves are less likely to contract COVID and also less likely to transmit COVID- not because schools themselves are inherently low risk. This applies in non-school settings as well, of course. On the contrary, you’d be hard pressed to find a higher risk activity.
Well, now that there is a new "this administration," lets see how they are doing.

Listening to Fauci science? NOPE!

Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: avromie7 on February 12, 2021, 12:00:02 PM
You are asserting that children would be engaging in higher risk activities than attending school for the same duration as they would be attending school, which which you’re almost certainly wrong about (not least because of course the majority are learning on Zoom during that time). It’s more likely that the reason spread is lower in schools is because children themselves are less likely to contract COVID and also less likely to transmit COVID- not because schools themselves are inherently low risk. This applies in non-school settings as well, of course. On the contrary, you’d be hard pressed to find a higher risk activity.
With minor adjustments you can eliminate contact between classes, that would essentially create a bubble around each class making transmission very unlikely. As soon as you let them run loose they're coming into contact with many other people.

I've been saying this for a long time, and I think it's pretty straight forward. People don't spread COVID by coming in contact with the same people every day, it's when a new potentially infected person gets added to the mix that transmission becomes much more likely. The most obvious case in the frum world is weddings, we see people going to shul, work, and stores every day with little transmission. As soon as you add weddings to the mix it starts spreading like crazy.

The same will apply to students, when they're hanging out on the streets they come in contact with new people every day making transmission much more likely.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: S209 on February 12, 2021, 02:47:08 PM
With minor adjustments you can eliminate contact between classes, that would essentially create a bubble around each class making transmission very unlikely. As soon as you let them run loose they're coming into contact with many other people.

I've been saying this for a long time, and I think it's pretty straight forward. People don't spread COVID by coming in contact with the same people every day, it's when a new potentially infected person gets added to the mix that transmission becomes much more likely. The most obvious case in the frum world is weddings, we see people going to shul, work, and stores every day with little transmission. As soon as you add weddings to the mix it starts spreading like crazy.

The same will apply to students, when they're hanging out on the streets they come in contact with new people every day making transmission much more likely.
I agree with you and I also think schools should be open. I’m just not sure the math saying “opening schools reduces spread” is correct.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: avromie7 on February 12, 2021, 03:35:18 PM
I agree with you and I also think schools should be open. I’m just not sure the math saying “opening schools reduces spread” is correct.
I don't have the calculations to prove either way, but I think we both agree the math in the tweet is incredibly inaccurate.
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: S209 on March 03, 2021, 01:21:47 PM
“There won’t be a vaccine for at least 5 years”
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: AsherO on March 03, 2021, 01:55:24 PM
“There won’t be a vaccine for at least 5 years”

Let’s move the goalposts by saying:

“I was right. There won’t be a vaccine I’ll accept as trustworthy for five years”
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: PlatinumGuy on April 04, 2021, 11:51:57 AM

Schools don’t spread covid
Title: Re: DDF Mythbusters: The 10 Covid Fallacies
Post by: avromie7 on April 05, 2021, 10:17:28 AM

Schools don’t spread covid
very strong and consistent cherry picked data.