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DansDeals Forum => COVID-19 Discussion Board => Topic started by: PlatinumGuy on February 13, 2021, 11:34:53 PM

Title: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 13, 2021, 11:34:53 PM
I've been saying this for a long time, and I think it's pretty straight forward. People don't spread COVID by coming in contact with the same people every day, it's when a new potentially infected person gets added to the mix that transmission becomes much more likely. The most obvious case in the frum world is weddings, we see people going to shul, work, and stores every day with little transmission. As soon as you add weddings to the mix it starts spreading like crazy.

The same will apply to students, when they're hanging out on the streets they come in contact with new people every day making transmission much more likely.

This post got me thinking. Let's take for a given that weddings are indeed driving spread, even now. Why is that so? The fact that there is much we don't understand about how the world works and this virus in particular doesn't mean it doesn't follow some form of predictable logic, and we can try to understand it.

Obviously, if Covid is more prevalent in x frum community, say 5% of the population will have Covid, weddings in Lakewood have a certain amount of people from X community, say 1000, so 50 covid carriers are seeding Lakewood. (People who attend weddings are probably skewed, so prevalence will be even higher the 5%).

Additionally, if there is a relatively insular neighborhood or area in Lakewood where Covid is less prevalent than the rest of Lakewood, perhaps most day to day contacts in shuls, schools, and stores are more likely to be within the community where Covid is less prevalent, whereas weddings will expose the community to people from the communities where it is more prevalent.

However, to me it seems that currently Covid is more prevalent in Lakewood than the other frum communities where people are coming to weddings from (perhaps Miami & Israel are the exception?), and Covid appears to be prevalent enough in Lakewood that it's hard to believe any specific community has it dramatically less than others.

I think there are two possible explanations.

1. There is much more direct contact in weddings.  Spread can happen in the air and from people standing next to each other, but the vast majority of spread is probably by direct conversation exchanges or prolonged direct contact. By and large, the average person who goes to shul or a store doesn't speak directly to more than a handful of people at most, but at a wedding, you are likely interacting closely with at least 10 people, sometimes 50 or more.

2. Perhaps the circadian clock plays a role? Is is possible people simply shed more virus at night, or recipients are more susceptible to infection when exposed to this pathogen at night? 


Anybody able to help me understand?


Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: yitzgar on February 13, 2021, 11:39:24 PM
3 people can be at weddings for hours.
4 Is it possible that of multiple people with coronavirus are there, the viral load in the air is greater, and therefore likely hood of becoming infected increases?
5 Shouting to be heard over the music
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: aygart on February 13, 2021, 11:43:12 PM
6. Singing along with the music
7. Heavy breathing while dancing
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: avromie7 on February 13, 2021, 11:50:09 PM
This post got me thinking. Let's take for a given that weddings are indeed driving spread, even now. Why is that so? The fact that there is much we don't understand about how the world works and this virus in particular doesn't mean it doesn't follow some form of predictable logic, and we can try to understand it.

Obviously, if Covid is more prevalent in x frum community, say 5% of the population will have Covid, weddings in Lakewood have a certain amount of people from X community, say 1000, so 50 covid carriers are seeding Lakewood. (People who attend weddings are probably skewed, so prevalence will be even higher the 5%).

Additionally, if there is a relatively insular neighborhood or area in Lakewood where Covid is less prevalent than the rest of Lakewood, perhaps most day to day contacts in shuls, schools, and stores are more likely to be within the community where Covid is less prevalent, whereas weddings will expose the community to people from the communities where it is more prevalent.

However, to me it seems that currently Covid is more prevalent in Lakewood than the other frum communities where people are coming to weddings from (perhaps Miami & Israel are the exception?), and Covid appears to be prevalent enough in Lakewood that it's hard to believe any specific community has it dramatically less than others.

I think there are two possible explanations.

1. There is much more direct contact in weddings.  Spread can happen in the air and from people standing next to each other, but the vast majority of spread is probably by direct conversation exchanges or prolonged direct contact. By and large, the average person who goes to shul or a store doesn't speak directly to more than a handful of people at most, but at a wedding, you are likely interacting closely with at least 10 people, sometimes 50 or more.

2. Perhaps the circadian clock plays a role? Is is possible people simply shed more virus at night, or recipients are more susceptible to infection when exposed to this pathogen at night? 


Anybody able to help me understand?
I think your first mistake is assuming "covid is prevelant in Lakewood" means it's prevelant in all neighborhoods but some more than others. This is not the case, while cases were high in Lakewood for quite a while I didn't hear of any cases in my neighborhood until a few weeks ago.

In order for covid to get into a neighborhood someone needs to bring it there. Everyone going to the same shul (no matter how many people), can never introduce the virus.
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 13, 2021, 11:58:20 PM
4 Is it possible that of multiple people with coronavirus are there, the viral load in the air is greater, and therefore likely hood of becoming infected increases?
It's a theory, but then it would apply equally in a shul if it had an equal amount of people over an equal amount of time.

I think your first mistake is assuming "covid is prevelant in Lakewood" means it's prevelant in all neighborhoods but some more than others. This is not the case, while cases were high in Lakewood for quite a while I didn't hear of any cases in my neighborhood until a few weeks ago.

In order for covid to get into a neighborhood someone needs to bring it there. Everyone going to the same shul (no matter how many people), can never introduce the virus.

It's definitely very possible that 1 neighborhood is different than others, but when you say you didn't hear of a case in your neighborhood until a few weeks ago, that's when it seemed to be getting more prevalent across Lakewood.

I just think enough people are interacting daily with other neighborhoods that it would get seeded in every neighborhood. I could definitely be wrong, it won't be the first or the last time.

Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: avromie7 on February 14, 2021, 12:05:52 AM
It's a theory, but then it would apply equally in a shul if it had an equal amount of people over an equal amount of time.

It's definitely very possible that 1 neighborhood is different than others, but when you say you didn't hear of a case in your neighborhood until a few weeks ago, that's when it seemed to be getting more prevalent across Lakewood.

I just think enough people are interacting daily with other neighborhoods that it would get seeded in every neighborhood. I could definitely be wrong, it won't be the first or the last time.
It was definitely going around significantly for a long time before it hit my neighborhood.

I think another point is that it gives a super spreader the opportunity to spread it to so many different neighborhoods at one time and from there it can continue spreading within those neighborhoods.
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: avromie7 on February 14, 2021, 12:10:18 AM
In the OP you mentioned stores, I believe stores rarely lead to spread even if people don't wear masks, due to the short duration of any encounters.
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: AsherO on February 14, 2021, 12:20:44 AM
The factors mentioned above, combined with the fact that when shedding heavily in shul on a weekday morning someone might infect those sitting around them, vs. at a wedding when there are many more people and the person shedding moves around during the event to be close to more people for extended periods of time (5m+).
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 14, 2021, 12:35:59 AM
The factors mentioned above, combined with the fact that when shedding heavily in shul on a weekday morning someone might infect those sitting around them, vs. at a wedding when there are many more people and the person shedding moves around during the event to be close to more people for extended periods of time (5m+).
Yeah, that's what I mean by more interactions. Seems very likely.
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on February 14, 2021, 02:08:37 AM
2. Perhaps the circadian clock plays a role? Is is possible people simply shed more virus at night, or recipients are more susceptible to infection when exposed to this pathogen at night? 


Some quick googling showed me something I read a few months ago; the body is indeed better suited to repel infections at different times of the day

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/3/1543

I wonder if there has been any analysis of time of day of Covid transmission... a lot of governments have some pretty high resolution contract tracing
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Alexsei on February 15, 2021, 03:51:25 PM
the real "stats" show that no one in our community gives a flying hoot about any of this
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: JMHO on February 15, 2021, 04:17:15 PM
the real "stats" show that no one in Your community gives a flying hoot about any of this
FTFY ::)
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Alexsei on February 15, 2021, 04:44:08 PM
FTFY ::)
Our as in DDF, make a poll
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: AsherO on February 15, 2021, 05:34:38 PM
the real "stats" show that no one in our community gives a flying hoot about any of this

None of (the rest of) us live in your pants...
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Alexsei on February 15, 2021, 05:42:57 PM
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=123424.new#new
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: S209 on February 15, 2021, 08:05:03 PM
the real "stats" show that no one in our community gives a flying hoot about any of this
Isnít that embarrassing?
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Alexsei on February 15, 2021, 08:16:33 PM
Isnít that embarrassing?
Time will tell
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: yelped on February 15, 2021, 08:25:07 PM
Time did tell, time and time again.
FTFY. (Pun not intended).
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: S209 on February 15, 2021, 08:46:45 PM
Time will tell
What are you waiting for? Techiyas Hameisim?
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Alexsei on February 15, 2021, 08:50:11 PM
What are you waiting for? Techiyas Hameisim?
Exactamente.
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: S209 on February 15, 2021, 08:54:18 PM
Exactamente.
Fun fact: With an ďeĒ at the end thatís actually a Spanish word, not French.

(I donít understand your response but I feel an incredible sense of Deja Vu).
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Alexsei on February 15, 2021, 09:02:15 PM
Fun fact: With an ďeĒ at the end thatís actually a Spanish word, not French.

(I donít understand your response but I feel an incredible sense of Deja Vu).
That tell's you something about my French! Or my Spanish? Or my English?
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: onefartsmellow on February 16, 2021, 12:02:17 PM
If the band would lower the volume so that people could talk to each other without yelling, there would most likely be much less spread
Yelling in someone's face is a sure way to send droplets into their lungs
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: PlatinumGuy on March 15, 2021, 05:26:12 PM
Some quick googling showed me something I read a few months ago; the body is indeed better suited to repel infections at different times of the day

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/3/1543

I wonder if there has been any analysis of time of day of Covid transmission... a lot of governments have some pretty high resolution contract tracing
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.12.21253015v1.article-info

Quote
RESULTS

We assessed 31,094 RT-PCR test results for SARS-CoV-2 collected by nasopharyngeal swabs from 28,101 patients ≥ 18 years old across 127 testing sites over ∼12 weeks within a regional healthcare system in the United States. Of these, 2,438 (7.8%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Between 16 and 1,232 tests per day were performed; the fraction positive varied between 0 and 18%, and 27,561 (88.6%) tests were performed between 8 am and 8 pm. Demographics were similar among outpatient sites (Table); patients in the emergency department and hospital were older than outpatients, and 65.9% of tests were for White patients, compared to the local community prevalence of ∼80%. A 24-hour sinusoidal variation in the fraction of positive tests was observed, with a peak in the fitted sinusoid at 1:49 pm, and 2.2-fold difference between the fitted peak and trough (Figure 1a). Less temporal variation was noted for tests performed in the emergency department.

(https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/03/13/2021.03.12.21253015/F1.large.jpg?width=800&height=600&carousel=1)

Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Lurker on March 15, 2021, 05:29:22 PM
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.12.21253015v1.article-info


What does the time of test collection have to do with the time of exposure?
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Ergel on March 15, 2021, 05:30:35 PM
What does the time of test collection have to do with the time of exposure?
LOL, it means that people are shedding most at that time
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: yelped on March 15, 2021, 05:34:34 PM
LOL, it means that people are shedding most at that time
I don't see it having to be that way.
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Ergel on March 15, 2021, 05:36:52 PM
I don't see it having to be that way.
So people who are more likely to be positive come in to test at certain times of the day?
And inpatient tests are give to people more likely to be positive at those same times?
Or testers dig deeper at certain times of the day?
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: mmgfarb on March 15, 2021, 05:49:05 PM
LOL, it means that people are shedding most at that time
That has nothing to do with whether or not your body is more likely to fight off the virus at a specific time of day or not.
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Ergel on March 15, 2021, 06:12:05 PM
That has nothing to do with whether or not your body is more likely to fight off the virus at a specific time of day or not.
Who said it did?
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Joe4007 on March 15, 2021, 08:00:27 PM
Just saw this thread. Can't believe no one mentioned hand shaking. I'd think that's a killer.
Title: Re: Why are weddings driving spread?
Post by: Lurker on March 15, 2021, 09:34:21 PM
LOL, it means that people are shedding most at that time

Explain this to me. The people who tested positive at 1 pm only tested positive because they were shedding more? And if the same people were tested at 8 pm that same day, they would be negative? If so, that says less about when people are most contagious and more about how bad our tests are.