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DansDeals Forum => Just Shmooze => Topic started by: Ergel on June 23, 2016, 10:18:09 PM

Title: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: Ergel on June 23, 2016, 10:18:09 PM
Are they actually going to leave? I'm shocked.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Ergel on June 23, 2016, 10:45:38 PM
Can anyone explain to me what the argument for leave is?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: grodnoking on June 23, 2016, 10:57:18 PM
Can anyone explain to me what the argument for leave is?
They dont need to add money to EU "general fund". (You have to pay a sort of tax).
They always kept their distance already.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: good sam on June 23, 2016, 11:10:16 PM
Can anyone explain to me what the argument for leave is?
They can set their own laws on immigration, agriculture and other areas.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Dan on June 23, 2016, 11:45:55 PM
BBC has called it for Leave: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36615028
So is this is the beginning of the end for the EU experiment?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: yuneeq on June 23, 2016, 11:48:28 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-live-results-and-analysis

Looking at the chart the whoever wants to remain in the EU should move North while the rest can stay put :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Dan on June 23, 2016, 11:51:07 PM
Assuming the EU can survive a Brexit...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Yammer on June 23, 2016, 11:54:30 PM
Didn't see it coming.
Title: Re: Does Brexit outcome indicate anything about Trump's chances
Post by: ExGingi on June 24, 2016, 12:19:36 AM
A lot of people were saying that if the UK votes for Brexit, Scotland is likely to attempt to secede again and join the EU.

Seems like Norther Ireland favored REMAIN. Will we see them vote to secede and join Ireland?
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: yesitsme on June 24, 2016, 12:26:43 AM
Quote
Heard in Baghdad: "I never thought Britain would break up before #Iraq." #Brexit
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: luckyluck on June 24, 2016, 12:28:49 AM
So who shorted GBP?  :D
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: JTZ on June 24, 2016, 12:29:48 AM
So who shorted GBP?  :D
My gold play went nuts. Should I cash out?
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: ExGingi on June 24, 2016, 12:33:09 AM
My gold play went nuts. Should I cash out?
Can't tell you if you should cash out. But if you have significant gains, it's probably prudent to peel off some of those gains.

Can't tell you what will happen in the short or medium term, but long-term I would guess that whatever action we are getting today in markets is an over-reaction. Brexit IS NOT the end of the world, as the political elites would like everyone believe.
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: sillypainter on June 24, 2016, 12:34:41 AM
I prayed for that. I actually have 90% of my monthly expenses in GBP so that's heaven for me. I unfortunately got rid of all my GBP debt last week because I feared a spike due to not winning, but atleast going forward I will be a winner.
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: ExGingi on June 24, 2016, 12:34:50 AM
I am guessing that BOJ will intervene. No way they can tolerate JPY @100
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: ExGingi on June 24, 2016, 12:37:06 AM
I prayed for that. I actually have 90% of my monthly expenses in GBP so that's heaven for me. I unfortunately got rid of all my GBP debt last week because I feared a spike die to not winning, but that least going forward I will be a winner.

Good for you. In my mind this was never a balanced trade. The Brexit vote would have (and seems to have) a much larger effect than a Remain vote would (and with expectations of remain, we might have actually seen a "sell on the news" reaction. But at this point this is all historical speculation).
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: JTZ on June 24, 2016, 01:01:50 AM
Nikkei is getting hammered.
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: David Smith on June 24, 2016, 01:38:26 AM
Can't tell you if you should cash out. But if you have significant gains, it's probably prudent to peel off some of those gains.

Can't tell you what will happen in the short or medium term, but long-term I would guess that whatever action we are getting today in markets is an over-reaction. Brexit IS NOT the end of the world, as the political elites would like everyone believe.
Market seems like an over reaction which should correct itself pretty fast. To buy now, or to wait to fall more...
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: good sam on June 24, 2016, 07:25:38 PM

That's dumb. Britain is fully intact. Did he mean to say the EU?
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: ExGingi on June 26, 2016, 02:27:08 PM
Interesting perspective:

http://prinmag.com/op-ed-brits-left-the-eu-because-of-the-queen/
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: Ergel on June 27, 2016, 08:12:42 AM
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/27/news/economy/brexit-broken-promises/index.html
I understand the Leave people will say that this is biased CNN reporting, but can someone explain away their arguments?
I have yet to see a salient argument for leave and cannot understand for half of an entire country voted for this
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: Ergel on June 27, 2016, 08:24:30 AM
It's funny that the one thing that will likely be most detrimental to Obama's legacy (the resulting economic fallout of the Brexit) is the one thing that wasn't in his control
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: JTZ on June 27, 2016, 08:30:10 AM
It's funny that the one thing that will likely be most detrimental to Obama's legacy (the resulting economic fallout of the Brexit) is the one thing that wasn't in his control
Will Brexit make the US economy weaker, stronger or much of nothing?
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: Ergel on June 27, 2016, 08:42:44 AM
At least in the short term it will be weaker.
Worst case, I definitely see a scenario where we have a mini recession because of this
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: Sport on June 27, 2016, 09:47:56 AM
Will Brexit make the US economy weaker, stronger or much of nothing?
Unfortunately the stregnth of the economy is not what the president will get judge on. Its all about the (superficial) numbers.
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: ExGingi on June 27, 2016, 11:37:34 AM
At least in the short term it will be weaker.
Worst case, I definitely see a scenario where we have a mini recession because of this
A recession is something that is extremely likely to happen under the next president, regardless of who it is, and while Brexit has an effect on the global economy, a recession was likely to happen regardless of the outcome of the Brexit referendum.

I don't see how Brexit affects any of Obama's legacy.

His legacy is:

None of the above change with or without Brexit? His legacy is what it is.
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: efflpetzel on June 27, 2016, 01:25:50 PM


I have yet to see a salient argument for leave and cannot understand for half of an entire country voted for this
The three main reasons I voted leave was

1) the European court of justice has the final say in the country it can & has overruled the UK supreme Court with no right of appeal,

2) we pay in 12 billion a year to the eu &  get back 2 billion on average,

3) freedom of movement for every Eu citizen which is how we ended up with a million Polish and Romanian scum living in london, 

Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: hachover on June 27, 2016, 01:58:13 PM
A recession is something that is extremely likely to happen under the next president, regardless of who it is, and while Brexit has an effect on the global economy, a recession was likely to happen regardless of the outcome of the Brexit referendum.

I don't see how Brexit affects any of Obama's legacy.

His legacy is:
  • Two left wing SCOTUS judges
  • Obamacare
  • Toeiva rights
  • Wasting the opportunity of a financial crisis to turn the country around with major infrastructure spending

None of the above change with or without Brexit? His legacy is what it is.

This is not really the thread for it, but you left out a key piece of the legacy - acting against all past US diplomatic relations (insult UK by tossing out bust of Churchill, cheering on Arab spring as hooligans overthrow the leaders of their countries, denouncing and pulling out of the wars in the Middle East, apologizing and cuddling up to Cuba, etc)
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: ExGingi on June 27, 2016, 02:05:31 PM
This is not really the thread for it, but you left out a key piece of the legacy - acting against all past US diplomatic relations (insult UK by tossing out bust of Churchill, cheering on Arab spring as hooligans overthrow the leaders of their countries, denouncing and pulling out of the wars in the Middle East, apologizing and cuddling up to Cuba, etc)

I agree that this is not the thread, let whoever is able to move this to a different thread.

I disagree with most of the things you mention as his legacy, with the exception of Cuba.

A legacy is something that has a long-term impact. And while Arab spring might count, I don't really think BHO had much of an impact on that happening (though I might just be naÔve).
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: ExGingi on June 28, 2016, 01:32:57 PM
For those interested in Geopolitical analysis, there are some interesting articles out there by George Friedman:

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/britains-vote-to-leave/
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-surprise-at-brexit-and-the-social-crisis-behind-it/
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: zh cohen on September 05, 2019, 09:15:15 PM
Are they actually going to leave?

Apparently not...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49588186
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: ExGingi on September 05, 2019, 11:13:31 PM
Apparently not...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49588186

It ainít over Ďtill itís over. Political turmoil in western democracies is the name of the game (Greece, Belgium, Italy, UK, Israel, and more).
Title: Re: Brexit Is Happening
Post by: aygart on September 06, 2019, 10:11:03 AM
It ainít over Ďtill itís over. Political turmoil in western democracies is the name of the game (Greece, Belgium, Italy, UK, Israel, and more).
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/brexit-bungles-point-to-the-genius-of-american-system