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DansDeals Forum => Just Shmooze => Topic started by: cmey on May 01, 2017, 07:41:30 PM

Title: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: cmey on May 01, 2017, 07:41:30 PM
There are currently hundreds of rental apartments looking for tenants in Lakewood. Basement rental apartments have been particularly hard hit. There are dozens of units that have been vacant for more than six months, and some that haven't had a tenant in close to a year. Some homeowners have given up and have stopped advertising their vacant units. Consequently, rental prices have crashed to levels not seen since the 1990's. Three bedroom apartments with central air, high end kitchens etc. can be had for under $700 a month in some developements. The crash is filtering down to townhouses as well, where prices have dropped substantially.

For several years the demand for rentals outpaced supply, and rental prices rose to the point where the rental of a townhouse and basement apartment would fully cover the mortgage and taxes plus a hefty profit. Many homes were built with two rental apartments and investors bought homes by the dozen to turn into rentals. Low interest rates help fuel the building boom.

The supply of rentals began to outpace demand, yet hundreds of homes were in the approval/ construction phase and were completed adding to the oversupplied market. At this point, despite the massive oversupply of rental units, there are still hundreds of additional units being built including large scale apartment buildings, and even more in the pipeline in various stages of the approval process. It isn't always feasible to pull the plug on a project that is underway, even though the fundamentals have changed. Eventually the market will balance itself out as the natural population growth helps absorb the excess supply, but judging by the units in the pipeline, things are likely to get much worse before they get better..

What are the implications of the rental implosion?
The most obvious will be the impact on the home construction/ real estate market. With the rental income potential drastically lower and the financial incentive in place to rent there will obviously be an impact on demand and consequently prices. The Toms River and Jackson markets stand to gain in the short term since most homes there do not have a rental basement making their lower price point more attractive than a higher priced home in Lakewood with a rental.

Will there be even more young couples moving to Lakewood to take advantage of rental prices that are a fraction of what they will find in almost any other market?

Will it be easier for parent to promise support for young couples since they will be spending thousands less on rent each year?

What are some of the other potential implications? Thoughts?

Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Iz on May 01, 2017, 07:44:11 PM
Kudos on the beautiful coherent writing! :D
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: skinfarrock on May 01, 2017, 07:51:36 PM
Kudos on the beautiful coherent writing! :D
+1
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Moshe123 on May 01, 2017, 07:52:59 PM
If the community wasn't growing so quickly, it would likely have lead to a major recession.

The hardest hit areas in the 2009 recession were the boom areas, with explosive growth, like Florida and Las Vegas. They all bounced back.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: skinfarrock on May 01, 2017, 07:56:42 PM
I'm hoping to get a house for real cheap after the crash! :)
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: coralsnake on May 01, 2017, 08:03:28 PM
Greeeeeeeaaaaaaat.........another Lakewood thread.....
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 01, 2017, 08:11:03 PM
This has happened before and will happen again. It is all cyclical.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Dr Moose on May 01, 2017, 08:28:10 PM
I'm hoping to get a house for real cheap after the crash! :)
Me too. Looking to buy all the homes from the many Kollel families who are no longer able to afford their mortgages because they dont have the rental income. 
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Iz on May 01, 2017, 08:33:28 PM
Greeeeeeeaaaaaaat.........another Lakewood thread.....
Boy, if I would open all the threads I have no interest in, and post to complain about them... ::)
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 01, 2017, 08:52:41 PM
This has happened before and will happen again. It is all cyclical.
Actually specifically in Lakewood, it hasn't. (If you are referring to Las Vegas, Miami etc. that's more accurate.) If I recall correctly, around the early 2000's there were some basement vacancies, but they were concentrated in the (then) outlying areas and the glut was not long lived. A few years after that there was an excess of rentals, but not for such a duration, and not with such an impact on prices, and certainly not on such a scale, even relative to the current population. There have been several housing bubbles as well. But I can't recall anything coming close to the magnitude and impact of the current situation. Sure everything is cyclical but this has the look of a situation never yet experienced in Lakewood and it is unlikely to have hit the bottom yet. Unlike rental bubbles in other cities , few of the landlords are investors with deep pockets; many are yungerleit struggling to make their primary mortgage each month so the impact is greater...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 01, 2017, 09:05:36 PM
Actually specifically in Lakewood, it hasn't. (If you are referring to Las Vegas, Miami etc. that's more accurate.) If I recall correctly, around the early 2000's there were some basement vacancies, but they were concentrated in the (then) outlying areas and the glut was not long lived. A few years after that there was an excess of rentals, but not for such a duration, and not with such an impact on prices, and certainly not in such numbers even relative to the current population. There have been several housing bubbles as well. But I can't recall anything coming close to the magnitude and impact of the current situation. Sure everything is cyclical but this has the look of a situation never yet experienced in Lakewood and it is unlikely to have hit the bottom yet. Unlike rental bubbles in other cities , few of the landlords are investors with deep pockets; many are yungerleit struggling to make their primary mortgage each month so the impact is different....
You are not remembering correctly. There are more vacancies now but the community is also larger. Apartments were going for 500 or even less.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 01, 2017, 09:06:11 PM
I'm hoping to get a house for real cheap after the crash! :)
With enough people thinking like you the downturn will end.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 01, 2017, 09:11:18 PM
You are not remembering correctly. There are more vacancies now but the community is also larger. Apartments were going for 500 or even less.

I remember a few apartments going for $495 but that was over 15 years ago and only in specific outlying areas. I don't remember which. Maybe village park and a couple others? Not in almost every neighborhood. Now, pick a neighborhood and there are houses sitting. Even on Forest near yeshiva...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Iz on May 01, 2017, 09:12:22 PM
Even on Forest near yeshiva...
What are they asking over there?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 01, 2017, 09:12:41 PM
I remember a few apartments going for $495 but that was over 15 years ago and only in specific outlying areas. I don't remember which. Maybe village park and a couple others? Not in almost every neighborhood. Now, pick a neighborhood and there are houses sitting. Even on Forest near yeshiva...
It was like that before too
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: churnbabychurn on May 01, 2017, 11:21:37 PM
Supporting kids ftw!
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 01, 2017, 11:58:59 PM
In the stock market the bottom is hit when there is capitulation- investors throw in the towel and the market hits bottom and then starts to stabilize and recover. How does that work with housing? You could lower the price of rentals to $300 and you would still have the same number of excess apartments. Does capitulation take place more gradually where no one wants to pay for a house with a rental or to finish a basement? That would be a slow process.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: henche on May 02, 2017, 12:01:51 AM
In the stock market the bottom is hit when there is capitulation- investors throw in the towel and the market hits bottom and then starts to stabilize and recover. How does that work with housing? You could lower the price of rentals to $300 and you would still have the same number of excess apartments. Does capitulation take place more gradually where no one wants to pay for a house with a rental or to finish a basement? That would be a slow process.

You assume the demand is static?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 02, 2017, 12:13:41 AM
You assume the demand is static?
Where is the elasticity? If the apartment is $300 will everyone just take two? You might have a slight increase in outsiders moving in to town, or singles living at home who decide to take an apartment, maybe even some homeowners who take their units off the market to use for themselves for home offices etc., but by and large, other than a shift in the apartment vacancy mix (more people upgrading from 2 bedrooms to 3's and 3's to townhouses) I would imagine that demand would overall remain fairly static, so lowering price would have little immediate impact on supply/demand..
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: henche on May 02, 2017, 12:26:22 AM
Where is the elasticity? If the apartment is $300 will everyone just take two? You might have a slight increase in outsiders moving in to town, or singles living at home who decide to take an apartment, maybe even some homeowners who take their units off the market to use for themselves for home offices etc., but by and large, other than a shift in the apartment vacancy mix (more people upgrading from 2 bedrooms to 3's and 3's to townhouses) I would imagine that demand would overall remain fairly static, so lowering price would have little immediate impact on supply/demand..

I assume you'd have more people moving in,  and less moving out. 
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: moen on May 02, 2017, 12:28:23 AM
Another reason why prices go down is because everyone wants their apartment rented out. For example, if there are two apartments on my block for rent and I make mine $100 cheaper than my neighbor, theres a good chance my apartment will rent faster than his.
This is all basics of supply and demand.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: yuneeq on May 02, 2017, 12:59:48 AM
Another reason why prices go down is because everyone wants their apartment rented out. For example, if there are two apartments on my block for rent and I make mine $100 cheaper than my neighbor, theres a good chance my apartment will rent faster than his.
This is all basics of supply and demand.

You're not teaching anyone anything new. Everyone knows about supply and demand. And it's not just about 2 people having available apartments on your block. If you knew it takes a week to get an  apartment on your block rented out, trust me you wouldn't be lowering your prices a penny. When you have hundreds of owners  who can't rent out apartments for many months, you have a rental market bust which can expected to be followed by a housing market bust if it's not corrected soon enough. That's what this discussion is about. Are we heading towards a crisis in the housing market? If yes, how to deal with and avoid the eventual housing crisis?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: ckmk47 on May 02, 2017, 01:25:36 AM
I have no advice for the short term, but over time, more and more young couples will be arriving renting more and more apartments.  So the glut will be absorbed.  Those with the financial means will weather it.  Those without....
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: churnbabychurn on May 02, 2017, 06:47:00 AM
Many developments that were supposed to be constructed are on hold if possible..  There is a major slowdown in the new construction market.

This will lead to more and more marketing to outside communities.. (I predict maybe a modox invasion)

We should also see some of the big developers go bankrupt.. but I think the investments these days are more sophisticated/syndicated.

Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on May 02, 2017, 06:57:41 AM
So this problem is only in Lakewood? Housing and rentals are booming by me.  :)
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: David Smith on May 02, 2017, 06:59:35 AM
So this problem is only in Lakewood? Housing and rentals are booming by me.  :)
Not only in Lakewood, but the specific dynamics that brought this about in Lakewood don't reflect on the state of the US housing market as a whole.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on May 02, 2017, 07:16:05 AM
Not only in Lakewood, but the specific dynamics that brought this about in Lakewood don't reflect on the state of the US housing market as a whole.
So this affects mostly Jewish areas?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: David Smith on May 02, 2017, 07:18:10 AM
So this affects mostly Jewish areas?
I would say the specific dynamics here impact Lakewood in particular.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on May 02, 2017, 07:25:14 AM
I would say the specific dynamics here impact Lakewood in particular.
Sounds like a buying opportunity to me.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: David Smith on May 02, 2017, 07:31:06 AM
Sounds like a buying opportunity to me.
I don't know about that. The housing growth was a bubble to a degree.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: yuneeq on May 02, 2017, 07:32:31 AM
I have no advice for the short term, but over time, more and more young couples will be arriving renting more and more apartments.  So the glut will be absorbed.  Those with the financial means will weather it.  Those without....

The glut will only be absorbed if new construction slows down.
 I haven't seen a slowdown at all. Maybe in a year or 2 we will see a slowdown in new construction.
If you look at new applications you'll see a few projects of 500+ homes each, some as large as  936 homes (plus basements), doesn't look like a slowdown at all.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: AsherO on May 02, 2017, 07:39:51 AM
The glut will only be absorbed if new construction slows down.
 I haven't seen a slowdown at all. Maybe in a year or 2 we will see a slowdown in new construction.
If you look at new applications you'll see a few projects of 500+ homes each, some as large as  936 homes (plus basements), doesn't look like a slowdown at all.

So there's demand for houses to buy but not much demand for rental units?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: churnbabychurn on May 02, 2017, 07:55:00 AM
The glut will only be absorbed if new construction slows down.
 I haven't seen a slowdown at all. Maybe in a year or 2 we will see a slowdown in new construction.
If you look at new applications you'll see a few projects of 500+ homes each, some as large as  936 homes (plus basements), doesn't look like a slowdown at all.
Look at prospect St. lots of the developments are on hold. Rusting tractors etc.
Whoever can afford to stop building stopped.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: yuneeq on May 02, 2017, 08:25:32 AM
Look at prospect St. lots of the developments are on hold. Rusting tractors etc.
Whoever can afford to stop building stopped.

Didn't notice that existing projects were stopped
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Moshe123 on May 02, 2017, 08:28:22 AM
So there's demand for houses to buy but not much demand for rental units?

Yes. People want to buy, but are relying on a rental to help pay the mortgage. However, with everyone buying, fewer are renting and there aren't enough renters to help with all the mortgages.

This problem doesn't exist in other areas, because the rental demand is still very high.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Eliyohu on May 02, 2017, 08:32:11 AM
Look at prospect St. lots of the developments are on hold. Rusting tractors etc.
Whoever can afford to stop building stopped.
Which ones are on hold? Prospect square is going full force, prospect hills is about to start, behind williams just started, prospect corner they're still trying to get the next piece of property/zoning.. duplexes past prospect vines are starting as soon as the vines are complete...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: AsherO on May 02, 2017, 08:57:13 AM
Yes. People want to buy, but are relying on a rental to help pay the mortgage. However, with everyone buying, fewer are renting and there aren't enough renters to help with all the mortgages.

This problem doesn't exist in other areas, because the rental demand is still very high.

If the buying people are all relying on rentals, which are a dud, then the buying market should slowly grind to a halt.

Maybe I should consider a move to Lakewood, housing in Brooklyn is out of control.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Moshe123 on May 02, 2017, 09:15:54 AM
If the buying people are all relying on rentals, which are a dud, then the buying market should slowly grind to a halt.

Maybe I should consider a move to Lakewood, housing in Brooklyn is out of control.

The natural progression is for existing house prices to fall, new building halted because of profitability questions, and the cycle starts all over again. Less houses, prices go up, more rentals, more developments, and...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 02, 2017, 09:17:14 AM
If the buying people are all relying on rentals, which are a dud, then the buying market should slowly grind to a halt.

Maybe I should consider a move to Lakewood, housing in Brooklyn is out of control.

Why buy when u can move to Lakewood and rent a brand new 5 bedroom townhouse for $1600 a month?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 02, 2017, 09:42:44 AM
Here's a prediction for the Toms River and Jackson market:
an initial bump due to the rental situation in Lakewood, then a drop as the Lakewood house prices come down, and rentals stabilize. Then in a couple years, Jackson and Toms River have sticker shock from private school bussing costs so they switch to co-ed bussing, resulting in Toms River and Jackson parents paying out of pocket for private transportation. This makes housing unattractive for large families, further depressing prices....
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: AsherO on May 02, 2017, 09:46:03 AM
Why buy when u can move to Lakewood and rent a brand new 5 bedroom townhouse for $1600 a month?

How much is the mortgage on the same townhouse? In some markets your monthly mortgage bill (after 20% down) is less than rent on the same property.

If renting, I'm not building equity and my rent might go up if the market tightens.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 02, 2017, 09:54:07 AM
How much is the mortgage on the same townhouse? In some markets your monthly mortgage bill (after 20% down) is less than rent on the same property.

If renting, I'm not building equity and my rent might go up if the market tightens.
There are legal limits to how much a landlord is allowed to raise rent.

BTW, I like your version of my sig's concept.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 02, 2017, 10:15:57 AM
How much is the mortgage on the same townhouse? In some markets your monthly mortgage bill (after 20% down) is less than rent on the same property.

If renting, I'm not building equity and my rent might go up if the market tightens.

At around 500-500k purchase price mortgage plus taxes etc. is probably close to $3000 a month minus whatever the basement will bring in....
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Mordyk on May 02, 2017, 10:16:46 AM
How much is the mortgage on the same townhouse? In some markets your monthly mortgage bill (after 20% down) is less than rent on the same property.

If renting, I'm not building equity and my rent might go up if the market tightens.
rental income for full townhouse should be min. $1600 and for basement Min. $800    should almost cover a mortgage if someone put down 20%.

and a side note is that people need real lessons in finance to explain that you can't buy a house with an assumption that you will have a basement renter for 12 months out of a year.  way to many people make that mistake and get into problems...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Moshe123 on May 02, 2017, 10:21:37 AM
How much is the mortgage on the same townhouse? In some markets your monthly mortgage bill (after 20% down) is less than rent on the same property.

If renting, I'm not building equity and my rent might go up if the market tightens.

The mortgage is higher than the rent income for the townhouse and basement currently.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: David Smith on May 02, 2017, 10:24:58 AM
and a side note is that people need real lessons in finance to explain that you can't buy a house with an assumption that you will have a basement renter for 12 months out of a year.  way to many people make that mistake and get into problems...
Many basement rentals in Lakewood are 3 BR apartments, not 1 BR dumps. They're suitable for young families, not just newlyweds. It's not so unreasonable to expect a degree of stability once you have a tenant.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Mordyk on May 02, 2017, 10:27:27 AM
Many basement rentals in Lakewood are 3 BR apartments, not 1 BR dumps. They're suitable for young families, not just newlyweds. It's not so unreasonable to expect a degree of stability once you have a tenant.
expect a degree is different than relying on rent to cover, and if you have a month with no tenant then you cant cover...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Super Speed on May 02, 2017, 10:30:32 AM
This has happened before and will happen again. It is all cyclical.
If you think this is anything like we've seen in the past you're delusional.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Super Speed on May 02, 2017, 10:37:14 AM
rental income for full townhouse should be min. $1600 and for basement Min. $800    should almost cover a mortgage if someone put down 20%.

and a side note is that people need real lessons in finance to explain that you can't buy a house with an assumption that you will have a basement renter for 12 months out of a year.  way to many people make that mistake and get into problems...
A year ago it was a given and all the agents were selling high ticketed houses with that sales pitch.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 02, 2017, 10:38:50 AM
At best the mortgage payment would be a wash even after factoring in equity, more likely a losing proposition vs renting. As far as the fear of being squeezed down the road by rising rent prices, rent prices are almost certain to rise but that would only factor in to your rent vs buy calculation if you think house prices will be rising as well. If you think the market is softening (which in all likelihood it is) then it makes sense to take advantage of the low rent prices now, and then buy when rent prices start to go up....
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 02, 2017, 10:45:44 AM
If you think this is anything like we've seen in the past you're delusional.
If you think it isn't you are either ignorant or forgetful.

For the record I have ZERO financial interest in Lakewood real estate other than my own house without a basement apartment, but if the market crashes I would be more than happy to snap up some investment properties.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: churnbabychurn on May 02, 2017, 12:38:40 PM
At best the mortgage payment would be a wash even after factoring in equity, more likely a losing proposition vs renting. As far as the fear of being squeezed down the road by rising rent prices, rent prices are almost certain to rise but that would only factor in to your rent vs buy calculation if you think house prices will be rising as well. If you think the market is softening (which in all likelihood it is) then it makes sense to take advantage of the low rent prices now, and then buy when rent prices start to go up....
+1

From an economic perspective, the average Lakewood family living on a budget should definitely be renting at this time.

Iv run the numbers, it makes zero economic sense to purchase new construction now...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 02, 2017, 03:47:06 PM
+1

From an economic perspective, the average Lakewood family living on a budget should definitely be renting at this time.

Iv run the numbers, it makes zero economic sense to purchase new construction now...

Maybe buyers are thinking they are locking in lower interest rates...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: churnbabychurn on May 02, 2017, 04:06:10 PM
Maybe buyers are thinking they are locking in lower interest rates...
Meh. Not that low.

But to pay all that interest and think they are "building equity"...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: henche on May 02, 2017, 04:48:50 PM
Yah, yah, building equity.

I've run the numbers, and if I would be homeless for the next 30 years, I'd be a millionaire.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 02, 2017, 05:46:22 PM
Meh. Not that low.

But to pay all that interest and think they are "building equity"...

Well it's worked in the past and people are slow to adjust. Just a few years ago the numbers worked- rental income just about covered mortgage plus taxes and the principle paid down each month was icing on the cake..
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 02, 2017, 05:55:20 PM
Well it's worked in the past and people are slow to adjust. Just a few years ago the numbers worked- rental income just about covered mortgage plus taxes and the principle paid down each month was icing on the cake..
Numbers which don't work nave a tendency to force people to adjust. They almost always win.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: thaber on May 02, 2017, 06:01:28 PM
This has happened before and will happen again. It is all cyclical.
If you think this is anything like we've seen in the past you're delusional.
Why buy when u can move to Lakewood and rent a brand new 5 bedroom townhouse for $1600 a month?

So in 2007 I rented a 5 bedroom new construction home on 1/2 an acre near Pine and MLK for $1500. that would seem to point to a cycle?
ETA: owner didn't even bother finishing the basement, there was no market for it.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 02, 2017, 10:36:32 PM
Numbers which don't work nave a tendency to force people to adjust. They almost always win.
But the adjustment can take a long time. There are quite a few groceries in Lakewood that are still open even though the numbers are not on their side...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 02, 2017, 10:37:54 PM
But the adjustment can take a long time. There are quite a few groceries in Lakewood that are still open even though the numbers are not on their side...
being unable to pay your mortgage payment can be very effective in getting people to adjust
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 03, 2017, 10:49:03 AM
being unable to pay your mortgage payment can be very effective in getting people to adjust

If everyone acted rationally and was financially responsible 80% of Lakewood would be wearing hand me downs and the Voice Of Lakewood would be a whole lot thinner...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: cmey on May 03, 2017, 11:30:48 PM
Starting to see a couple of instances of young couples buying homes intending to live in the basement for a few years and rent out the upstairs to cover most of the mortgage, (a strategy that has become increasingly popular in the last few years) only to find that it is even harder to rent out the upstairs than the basement- at least at a price differential that would make it worthwhile to live in the basement- in the current market. These young couples are therefore choosing to move in upstairs and get what rent they can for the basement. Is this the start of a trend where we will see newlyweds/young couples living in 5 bedroom 3 bathroom homes?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: AsherO on May 04, 2017, 12:22:38 AM
Is this the start of a trend where we will see newlyweds/young couples living in 5 bedroom 3 bathroom homes?

If they can afford it it'll leave them a lot of room to grow.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: yzj on May 04, 2017, 09:23:03 AM
If they can afford it it'll leave them a lot of room to grow.

True, and it may make sense for some newlyweds who want to settle down long term, or see buying a home as a hedge against future price increases, but it is a possible implication of the rental market collapse. Not too long ago most of the people buying houses were relatively older with several children, then came the trend of younger families with one or two kids buying and moving into the basement. If there is indeed a trend of newlyweds moving into large homes that would be a substantial change brought about by the rental situation.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 07, 2017, 10:17:34 PM
Starting to hear of people who are actively looking for apartments in the same or nearby neighborhood that they are currently renting to take advantage of rents that are $200 to $300 lower than they are currently paying for a newer and sometimes nicer apartment.. Even after moving costs are factored in they are looking at a $5000+ savings over 2 years. I don't know if they tried renegotiating the rent with their current landlord, or if they just figured that asking to go down from $1250-1300 down to $1000 would be a non starter...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 07, 2017, 10:39:34 PM
Starting to hear of people who are actively looking for apartments in the same or nearby neighborhood that they are currently renting to take advantage of rents that are $200 to $300 lower than they are currently paying for a newer and sometimes nicer apartment.. Even after moving costs are factored in they are looking at a $5000+ savings over 2 years. I don't know if they tried renegotiating the rent with their current landlord, or if they just figured that asking to go down from $1250-1300 down to $1000 would be a non starter...
It would be very short minded of the landlord not to negotiate. He will be left with empty months besides needing to rent it at the lower rate. With the current tenant they at least have no vacancy and can stay a little higher since he is saving them the move.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Toasted on May 07, 2017, 11:01:53 PM
Starting to hear of people who are actively looking for apartments in the same or nearby neighborhood that they are currently renting to take advantage of rents that are $200 to $300 lower than they are currently paying for a newer and sometimes nicer apartment.. Even after moving costs are factored in they are looking at a $5000+ savings over 2 years. I don't know if they tried renegotiating the rent with their current landlord, or if they just figured that asking to go down from $1250-1300 down to $1000 would be a non starter...
I've gotten plenty of those calls. When the first two questions someone asks is how big are the bedrooms and how old is the house......
Latest call I got was whether I'll do just two months in the summer.

One interesting trend I don't think you mentioned is people putting their basements up as vrbo's. if you get 7 days a month for 150 that's equivalent to a full rent. I think those guys are flooded by now as well. Additionally there's the cost of furnishings.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Toasted on May 07, 2017, 11:04:40 PM
In the good old days, you made up a months lost rent by churning another biz plat. Now that's gone too :'(.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: churnbabychurn on May 07, 2017, 11:18:31 PM
And there is also the issue of basement tenants that don't exactly fit the 'ruach' of the development...
 
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 07, 2017, 11:27:24 PM
In the good old days, you made up a months lost rent by churning another biz plat. Now that's gone too :'(.

There are a whole lot of folks doing as good and even far better than the old days but it takes a lot of work and some decent credit lines- and location can be a big factor-there are better places to be than Lakewood if you want to do ms on a massive scale.....
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 07, 2017, 11:31:34 PM
And there is also the issue of basement tenants that don't exactly fit the 'ruach' of the development...

Is that a reflection on the state of the rental market or an issue that would be there anyway? I guess it makes it harder to turn away a problematic tenant because people are desperate...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Toasted on May 07, 2017, 11:31:58 PM
There are a whole lot of folks doing as good and even far better than the old days but it takes a lot of work and some decent credit lines- and location can be a big factor-there are better places to be than Lakewood if you want to do ms on a massive scale.....
Ever since the shopper had a kol korei that it's ossur..,.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Eliyohu on May 07, 2017, 11:39:27 PM
Well it's worked in the past and people are slow to adjust. Just a few years ago the numbers worked- rental income just about covered mortgage plus taxes and the principle paid down each month was icing on the cake..
Nowadays basement rental income barely even covers the property taxes

Starting to hear of people who are actively looking for apartments in the same or nearby neighborhood that they are currently renting to take advantage of rents that are $200 to $300 lower than they are currently paying for a newer and sometimes nicer apartment.. Even after moving costs are factored in they are looking at a $5000+ savings over 2 years. I don't know if they tried renegotiating the rent with their current landlord, or if they just figured that asking to go down from $1250-1300 down to $1000 would be a non starter...

I have lots of freinds who renegotiated.. however the landlords will only go down just so much.. cause let's face it how many people are actually going to pick up and move across the street... and they like to play the rachmnus card "if the market was the other way I wouldn't raise it that much..." the other issue is that plenty will say no problem but re-sign the lease for another 2 years which many tenants would rather not lock themselves down.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 07, 2017, 11:42:04 PM
Nowadays basement rental income barely even covers the property taxes

I have lots of freinds who renegotiated.. however the landlords will only go down just so much.. cause let's face it how many people are actually going to pick up and move across the street... and they like to play the rachmnus card "if the market was the other way I wouldn't raise it that much..." the other issue is that plenty will say no problem but re-sign the lease for another 2 years which many tenants would rather not lock themselves down.
The lease is something they will have if they move as well
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Eliyohu on May 07, 2017, 11:43:29 PM
The lease is something they will have if they move as well
Hence they'd rather stay were they are...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 07, 2017, 11:45:03 PM
Hence they'd rather stay were they are...
It is a good way of calling their bluff
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 08, 2017, 12:07:58 AM
Wouldn't be surprised to see some apartments coming with a free new car lease as a selling point.... It's the next logical step after the free month rent that some apartments are advertising...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Super Speed on May 08, 2017, 12:12:38 AM
People advertising free flights to Israel​...
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: thaber on May 08, 2017, 02:58:57 AM
Wouldn't be surprised to see some apartments coming with a free new car lease as a selling point.... It's the next logical step after the free month rent that some apartments are advertising...
Seriously? Free month rent is a common lure in  many rental markets
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: yuneeq on May 08, 2017, 10:07:09 AM
One interesting trend I don't think you mentioned is people putting their basements up as vrbo's. if you get 7 days a month for 150 that's equivalent to a full rent. I think those guys are flooded by now as well. Additionally there's the cost of furnishings.

You still pay listing fees, credit card fee, referral fee, cleaning between renters, etc.
Takes more than 7 days of renting to make up a month of rent.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: ADG on May 08, 2017, 10:20:18 AM
Whats about all the folks who have higher rent leases from before the implosion. Do they need to ride out their contract, or can they threaten to leave and renegotiate?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: cholent on May 08, 2017, 10:44:04 AM
Whats about all the folks who have higher rent leases from before the implosion. Do they need to ride out their contract, or can they threaten to leave and renegotiate?
If they have a contract they have to ride it out. If not, they can renegotiate but may not get quite as low as current rates. That's offset by not having to deal with the hassle and expense of moving
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: jye on May 08, 2017, 09:46:09 PM
There seems to be a big divide between the new and older apartments. I have a friend whose basement tenant recently left to move into a new house in the same neighborhood. The tenant found someone to rent his new basement without a problem but his former landlord is still sitting on a vacant apartment.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: YitzyS on May 09, 2017, 09:52:14 AM
This is a letter in the Voice around half a year ago:



To my fellow Lakewooders,

    I’m writing this letter to address an issue that has recently become a major concern, and can affect a lot of residents of this great city, therefore I consider it my obligation to alert anyone who may otherwise not grasp the severity of the issue.

    It is no secret that the price of housing in Lakewood has skyrocketed. Houses that just two or three ago were on the market for already exorbitant rates are now going for a hundred thousand dollars more (or even more!). In prime areas, houses that were sold for 400k or 450k now neighbor homes that are on the market for 700k! The seemingly endless amount of new developments (not the subject of this letter, sorry) haven’t managed to make a dent in stinting the market prices.

All this isn’t news.

What may seem surprising is that people are still buying houses. But to most readers, that is no shock at all. After all, having a place to live is a necessity, and rent costs good money, so why pay for your landlord’s mortgage if you can be putting that money towards your own. So people will scrape together a down payment, and look for the cheapest house they can find within the proximity of their standards (location, size, crowd, etc.). They will then figure out exactly how much their monthly payments will amount to, and budget it out to the penny. X amount from the paycheck, X amount from the Kollel check, X amount from the basement tenant, etc. And then, with a to-the-penny plan and a good dose of Emunah, they proceed to purchase the house.

This too is not news.

So what prompted me to sit down and write this letter? As I mentioned at the onset, there is something newsworthy, something new that warrants our attention.

The issue is that there is a flaw in the reasoning of these homebuyers. A flaw that is caused by a new phenomenon, something unprecedented that people fail to take into account.

Dependable basement income no longer exists! The ability to rent out the basement isn’t a given anymore, and it cannot possibly be relied upon as a source of money to cover the monthly mortgage payment. Not even near-reliable!

If you would but open up the local publication that lists the rentals available, you would be confronted by pages upon pages of listings. In last week’s edition, there were 542 listings, spread across seventeen pages! (Yes, I counted.) A mere two years ago there was less than one full page of listings! The bulletin boards in BMG are inundated with “basement available” signs, now accounting for a majority of all signs, when not too long ago they were relegated to but small corners of the board. The “epidemic” of vacancies is so widespread that people have been coming up with creative ways to try to lure people into checking out their apartments. A recent sign on a Yeshiva bulletin actually had an inset on it that stated: “Ask about free Eretz Yisroel trip!” That’s just an indication how extensive this problem really is.

Why is this so?

The simple explanation is that the overabundance of new houses created an imbalance in the infrastructure. Every basement dweller who buys and moves into a new house leaves two basements empty, the one he just moved out of, plus the basement of the house he just bought. The only way to support that is if the demographic of new basement renters (usually newly married couples) is growing faster than that of the house buyers. Because house buyers must rent out their basement indefinitely, while basement renters generally only stay in basements for a few years, the size of their demographic must be growing a lot faster in order to keep the market balanced. Although it’s possible that it is indeed growing faster, it evidently is not “faster enough” to keep up with the overwhelming amount of new houses.

Many readers will now roll their eyes and allow their familiarity of precedents to discredit my claim away from ever touching upon their conscience. They will wave away the concern as a mere temporary phase, pointing to “the cycle of Lakewood rentals” as justification for this pattern. (“The cycle of Lakewood rentals” refers to a cycle that in the past has always proven itself true in Lakewood: rentals would be scarce, and then a wave of new developments would be completed, thereby leaving an abundance of available basements. Those would slowly fill up, again leading to a shortage of available basements, but only until the next wave of developments were completed. Most young individuals will remember “when I got married, there were hardly any available basements” or “when I got married, there were tons of available basements.”)

But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is Jackson.

Jackson presents a unique opportunity to many who otherwise can’t afford houses, to actually buy a house. While I don’t know the exact numbers, there is a substantial amount of people moving to Jackson, most who, I think it is safe to assume, would otherwise be renters in Lakewood. (I am not intentionally omitting Toms River, Howell, and Brick, it’s just that Jackson seems to have the biggest movement and the least hurdles.) And when you’re sucking such a significant number of renters out of an already busting rental market, the result is a deluge of vacancies.

(Please note, that this issue affects people wishing to rent out the main floors possibly just as much as it affects basement renters, because some of the buyers in Jackson would otherwise be renting houses in Lakewood. And even though there’s a smaller market of house rentals, there’s also a smaller pool of clients.)

The extreme abundance of availabilities has begun to drive rental prices down, thus creating somewhat of an additional attraction toward basements, but even so there is still a tremendous overabundance. If the trend continues, while it may draw back potential Jackson-buyers, it will nevertheless result in the basement income becoming inadequate to ever cover the gap in the mortgage payment.

And so my fellow Lakewooders, I implore you, please don’t fall into the trap! Don’t get yourself straddled into a situation that can so easily lead to total financial disaster. Just because your siblings all did it ten, five, or even two years ago, and have not (yet) had issues, doesn’t conjecture that you too can do the same. Don’t allow yourself to be persuaded into a commitment of 500k, 550k, or 600k, prices that can only be justified because of the rentable basements (if at all), when you will very possibly (or can I even say probably?) have tremendous difficulty filling that basement. Countless sleepless nights and untold mental anguish can all be avoided, if you consider the difficulties carefully instead of blindly jumping in.

Don’t be fooled by people who tell you that it is a mere passing phase. Jackson has an indefinite amount of houses, with more becoming available as the previous ones are bought. If the prices in the more sought out areas begin to go up, there is always the next neighborhood, and then the next. Many Jackson residents are eager to sell, and for the foreseeable future there is an adequate amount of houses to continue being a threat to Lakewood buyers seeking to rent their basements, if not enough to actually accelerate the problem. Al Pi Derech Hateva, Jackson is here to stay.

A probable result of this problem will be a big dip in prices of Lakewood houses, partly to reflect the risk, and also (if not primarily) because people (or at least most people) will stop buying such expensive houses with no reliable renters. That may very well happen. But for someone who jumps in now, it will forever be too late.

-Yona Bellar
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: yuneeq on May 09, 2017, 11:15:26 AM
The simple explanation is that the overabundance of new houses created an imbalance in the infrastructure. Every basement dweller who buys and moves into a new house leaves two basements empty, the one he just moved out of, plus the basement of the house he just bought. The only way to support that is if the demographic of new basement renters (usually newly married couples) is growing faster than that of the house buyers. Because house buyers must rent out their basement indefinitely, while basement renters generally only stay in basements for a few years, the size of their demographic must be growing a lot faster in order to keep the market balanced. Although it’s possible that it is indeed growing faster, it evidently is not “faster enough” to keep up with the overwhelming amount of new houses.
....
....
But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is Jackson.

Jackson presents a unique opportunity to many who otherwise can’t afford houses, to actually buy a house. While I don’t know the exact numbers, there is a substantial amount of people moving to Jackson, most who, I think it is safe to assume, would otherwise be renters in Lakewood. (I am not intentionally omitting Toms River, Howell, and Brick, it’s just that Jackson seems to have the biggest movement and the least hurdles.) And when you’re sucking such a significant number of renters out of an already busting rental market, the result is a deluge of vacancies.

Don’t be fooled by people who tell you that it is a mere passing phase. Jackson has an indefinite amount of houses, with more becoming available as the previous ones are bought. If the prices in the more sought out areas begin to go up, there is always the next neighborhood, and then the next. Many Jackson residents are eager to sell, and for the foreseeable future there is an adequate amount of houses to continue being a threat to Lakewood buyers seeking to rent their basements, if not enough to actually accelerate the problem. Al Pi Derech Hateva, Jackson is here to stay.

The guy doesn't realize he answered the dilemma he posed.
Jackson houses don't have rentable basements, so if people are moving to houses in Jackson instead of building more houses, they are not creating more basements. So there'll always be new people to fill in the Lakewood basements if the amount of basements being built isn't that high.

As to the assumption that Jackson buyers would be Lakewood renters. This is wrong. Jackson buyers would have been Lakewood buyers before the rise in housing prices and before the glut in the rent market. And of course many Jackson buyers could afford to buy in Lakewood but prefer Jackson anyways.

TLDR; Jackson is more of a solution than a problem.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 09, 2017, 11:40:33 AM
But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is Jackson.

As well as (in no specific order)

But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is Raintree.

But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is Hearthstone.

But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is Albert.

But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is Westgate/Miller Rd area.

But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is Ridge-yes there are actually people who learned Spanish and moved there.

But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is The South Side of the Lake.

But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is Squankum/Monmouth/Princeton.

But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is Coventry-I heard there are already 3 families living there.

But even if they will consider the number of houses being built as normal, it still cannot be pinned on a precedent! Because there is something new that has completely disrupted the cycle.

That something is 14th St.-Can you believe there are even people living near Pine Park

And many other areas that in their time everyone was saying the same thing about them as he is now saying about Jackson.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: avremie on May 09, 2017, 07:18:10 PM
And after a fair amount of defaulting the criminal investigations begin. :(
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: AsherO on May 09, 2017, 07:32:03 PM
-Yona Bellar

What is this guy's bias? Is he a developer or broker in Jackson?

What does the foreclosure/default rate look like in Lakewood? Is or increasing significantly? Is there a short-sale market?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: aygart on May 09, 2017, 07:37:30 PM
What is this guy's bias? Is he a developer or broker in Jackson?

What does the foreclosure/default rate look like in Lakewood? Is or increasing significantly? Is there a short-sale market?

I think it is a pseudonym.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: churnbabychurn on May 09, 2017, 10:43:47 PM
And after a fair amount of defaulting the criminal investigations begin. :(
Link?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: yzj on May 11, 2017, 09:55:39 PM
The new Massa Umatan rental list is down to 14 pages. Seasonal, or is the market slowly starting to stabilize?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Moshe123 on December 25, 2018, 04:28:40 PM
A year and a half after this thread. Where are we standing. There definitely isn't any housing bust.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: grodnoking on December 25, 2018, 04:34:40 PM
A year and a half after this thread. Where are we standing. There definitely isn't any housing bust.
How many pages are in the Masa Umaten now?

I hope everyone who was relying on the 7-9k from basement rentals have been able to keep up thier mortgage, without the money.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: YesThatsMe on December 25, 2018, 04:46:00 PM
I was getting $2,200 for an upstairs townhouse in Chestnut 24 months ago. They go for $1,700 now.

My neighbor was getting $1,200 for a basement 24 months ago. I get $750 now.

Yeah, there def is an implosion.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: S209 on December 25, 2018, 05:29:29 PM
Wouldn't be surprised to see some apartments coming with a free new car lease as a selling point.... It's the next logical step after the free month rent that some apartments are advertising...
This has happened multiple times
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: S209 on December 25, 2018, 05:34:22 PM
How many pages are in the Masa Umaten now?

I hope everyone who was relying on the 7-9k from basement rentals have been able to keep up thier mortgage, without the money.
I counted 9 pages of rentals for this week
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: yelped on December 25, 2018, 05:38:43 PM
What was it a year ago?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: cmey on December 25, 2018, 05:55:56 PM
It looks like the vast majority of home purchases are now taking place in Jackson/Toms River. Anecdotaly it seems that much of the new home construction in Lakewood proper is upper middle income/ wealthy single family homes that aren’t going to have basement rentals. There are definitely  a whole lot less of the duplex/townhome projects with basement units that used to be built en masse. The numbers just don’t add up for a basement like they used to. Higher taxes, higher interest rates, and lower rental income have really changed the equation. There were some multi family units built recently such as the old capital hotel but, nothing like what was taking place a few years ago. Couple that  with demographics: there are thousands of Lakewood kids just now coming of marriageable age in the next few years- around 2005 there was an explosion in the number of 5 year olds and schools started adding parallel classes left and right. Those kids are now 18-19 year olds. If even a fraction of them settle in Lakewood, combined with the couples coming from out of town, demand is probably going to surge. That has got to have implications down the line and should lead to the rental market firming up. Until more rental are built to capitalize on the higher rental prices and the cycle begins anew....
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: LNS on December 25, 2018, 06:58:22 PM
Wouldn't be surprised to see some apartments coming with a free new car lease as a selling point.... It's the next logical step after the free month rent that some apartments are advertising...
This has happened multiple times

I saw an ad with someone offering free tickets to Israel.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: S209 on December 25, 2018, 07:23:01 PM
What was it a year ago?
The new Massa Umatan rental list is down to 14 pages. Seasonal, or is the market slowly starting to stabilize?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: S209 on December 25, 2018, 07:25:27 PM
I saw an ad with someone offering free tickets to Israel.
If you would but open up the local publication that lists the rentals available, you would be confronted by pages upon pages of listings. In last week’s edition, there were 542 listings, spread across seventeen pages! (Yes, I counted.) A mere two years ago there was less than one full page of listings! The bulletin boards in BMG are inundated with “basement available” signs, now accounting for a majority of all signs, when not too long ago they were relegated to but small corners of the board. The “epidemic” of vacancies is so widespread that people have been coming up with creative ways to try to lure people into checking out their apartments. A recent sign on a Yeshiva bulletin actually had an inset on it that stated: “Ask about free Eretz Yisroel trip!” That’s just an indication how extensive this problem really is.


-Yona Bellar
Title: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Zevi16 on December 25, 2018, 08:16:55 PM
I actually had an idea to open a business where we advertise your available rental and try promote it to rent it out and also to manage the process of renting it out. i.e. taking pictures, answering questions about it and showing it.
I would charge the owner a months rent or a fixed fee.
I saw today an ad for something similar today tho. For free. For now.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: S209 on December 25, 2018, 08:58:18 PM
I actually had an idea to open a business where we advertise your available rental and try promote it to rent it out and also to manage the process of renting it out. i.e. taking pictures, answering questions about it and showing it.
I would charge the owner a months rent or a fixed fee.
I saw today an ad for something similar today tho. For free. For now.
Many people hire an agent for rentals. I pay my property manager half the first month’s rent as a finder’s fee. Though idk if people in Lakewood do it for basements as much.
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: churnbabychurn on December 25, 2018, 09:28:42 PM
Are ppl getting violations for 2 family?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: S209 on December 26, 2018, 12:19:36 AM
Are ppl getting violations for 2 family?
Never heard that. Have you heard something?
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: churnbabychurn on December 26, 2018, 12:21:08 AM
Never heard that. Have you heard something?
Faa seems to want to make it a thing.

http://firstamendmentactivist.blogspot.com/2018/12/lakewood-5000-basements.html?m=1
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: Moshe123 on December 26, 2018, 01:55:48 PM
Faa seems to want to make it a thing.

http://firstamendmentactivist.blogspot.com/2018/12/lakewood-5000-basements.html?m=1


Holy cow on those emails. That growth is bonkers insane and more than I was expecting. 32k estimated growth as a low-balling of residents from just new construction. Now add natural growth in existing houses and you wouldn't be shocked with the 2020 census showing Lakewood going from 92k residents to 135-140k.

כן ירבה וכן יפרוץ
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: S209 on December 26, 2018, 02:20:51 PM
Holy cow on those emails. That growth is bonkers insane and more than I was expecting. 32k estimated growth as a low-balling of residents from just new construction. Now add natural growth in existing houses and you wouldn't be shocked with the 2020 census showing Lakewood going from 92k residents to 135-140k.

כן ירבה וכן יפרוץ
Amen!
Title: Re: Rental market implosion in Lakewood- implications
Post by: avromie7 on December 27, 2018, 09:19:42 AM
Where is the elasticity? If the apartment is $300 will everyone just take two? You might have a slight increase in outsiders moving in to town, or singles living at home who decide to take an apartment, maybe even some homeowners who take their units off the market to use for themselves for home offices etc., but by and large, other than a shift in the apartment vacancy mix (more people upgrading from 2 bedrooms to 3's and 3's to townhouses) I would imagine that demand would overall remain fairly static, so lowering price would have little immediate impact on supply/demand..
I know it's been a long time since this post, but I'll answer it anyways. Anyone who is considering buying a house will run the numbers again and see how much they can save by staying in their basement apartment for another year or so, and many will stay. If there is a shortage of basements in the future, people will be quicker to buy houses and move out of their basements. In short, there is plenty of elasticity in the Lakewood market.