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DansDeals Forum => Credit Cards And Finance => Topic started by: ludmila on August 16, 2018, 04:08:21 AM

Title: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 16, 2018, 04:08:21 AM
After the big drop in the metals, I took a small position in each of the PM's , 1 futures contact long each
Bought Silver @ 14.35
Bought Gold @ 1161
Bought Palladium @835
Bought Platinum @ 757

Using a trailing stop, these can turn to extremely profitable trades with very small risk with a stop.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 16, 2018, 05:46:06 AM
How far out?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Ygold on August 16, 2018, 06:48:53 AM
@ludmila what brokerage do you use to purchase futures, if I may ask?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 16, 2018, 12:03:50 PM
How far out?
Do a few months.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 16, 2018, 12:05:06 PM
@ludmila what brokerage do you use to purchase futures, if I may ask?
They all work. See what commission they charge. IIRC Schwab is around $4 RT for e-micro contract.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 16, 2018, 12:45:06 PM
How far out?
Dec 2018, and platinum Jan 2019. I just closed the Palladium trade 100 oz. @ spot $903 up $57 today, which will give me a good profit to hold the other contracts longer.  The metals have been very volatile, so I am keeping tight stops on the rest.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 16, 2018, 01:17:48 PM
They all work. See what commission they charge. IIRC Schwab is around $4 RT for e-micro contract.
+1  I use more than 1, Interactive Brokers, Ameritrade and several others are fine, check commissions, minimum balances, charting  etc.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 24, 2018, 03:04:13 AM
New trade
Short CAD/NOK @ 6.45
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 24, 2018, 12:33:30 PM
After the big drop in the metals, I took a small position in each of the PM's , 1 futures contact long each
Bought Silver @ 14.35 Closed 8-24 @ 14.86   profit $2550
Bought Gold @ 1161  Closed 8-24 @ 1208.1  profit $4710
Bought Palladium @835 Closed earlier @5700$ profit-I exited this early, currently $942 which would have been a $9600 profit, but I wanted to have some off the table to keep holding the other 3.
Bought Platinum @ 757 Closed 8-24 @ $795  profit $3800


Using a trailing stop, these can turn to extremely profitable trades with very small risk with a stop.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 24, 2018, 01:08:05 PM
Holding 150+ AE physical unhedged.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 31, 2018, 02:34:55 AM
New trade
Short CAD/NOK @ 6.45 
Added to short 2 x today at $6.4475   Now short 400,000
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Boruch999 on August 31, 2018, 06:31:19 AM
.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on September 04, 2018, 04:07:02 PM
Added to short 2 x today at $6.4475   Now short 400,000 CAD/NOK
Added another 200000 @6.42  This is going to be a guaranteed very profitable trade.
TOTAL 600000
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Boruch999 on September 04, 2018, 04:17:44 PM
Added another 200000 @6.42  This is going to be a guaranteed very profitable trade.
TOTAL 600000

I considered following you but IB doesn't seem to offer CAD.NOK.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on September 04, 2018, 10:37:15 PM
I know, not many do, the NOK is not a major pair.  Another way to do it is to buy USD/CAD and sell USD/NOK , a little complex  as you need the same amount.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on September 11, 2018, 03:53:52 AM
Added another 200000 @6.42  This is going to be a guaranteed very profitable trade.
TOTAL 600000
Opened 2 more short positions
EUR/NOK  Shorted 500,000 @9.78
USD/NOK  Shorted 500,000 @8.4660
CAD /NOK Shorted 200,000 more @ 6.43   total short 800,000

Betting big on the Norwegian Kroner.
 
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Boruch999 on September 11, 2018, 02:05:14 PM
Betting big on the Norwegian Kroner.
Why?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on September 12, 2018, 01:29:25 PM
This morning went long GDX @$17.51, GDXJ @ $26.33, Gold @$1196.15,Silver @ $14.09, Platinum @$787, I passed on Palladium for now.
Ill keep trailing stops, the risk reward is good, this could have been a bottom in the metals, most individual gold stocks are on a buy signal, but I preferred to play it safer by buying GDX and GDXJ since I already went long futures.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on September 12, 2018, 01:41:09 PM
Why?
Nothing to do with fundamentals, If we look at fundamentals the USD/NOK should be around @5 , Norway's wealth fund is over 1 trillion $ for this country of 5 million, while for e.g the US and the Euro are in an everlasting and increasing debt, also the Norges Bank is expected to do the first rate hike in many years with more to come, but this is all already reflected in the price. The reason I went long NOK now was pure technical. The trades are in the right direction, with some more significant drops Ill cover half the positions to take profit and hold longer on the remaining half with a break even stop.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on September 19, 2018, 09:33:22 PM
Opened 2 more short positions
EUR/NOK  Shorted 500,000 @9.78    NOW 9-19-18   9.50   Closed 1/2
USD/NOK  Shorted 500,000 @8.4660  NOW 9-19-18  8.14   Closed 1/2
CAD /NOK Shorted 800,000  @ 6.45   total short 800,000    NOW 6.25  Closed 1/2

Betting big on the Norwegian Kroner.  Beginning of a big move, was very profitable in a few days, now holding the remaining position with a trailing stop.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 20, 2018, 09:49:19 AM
After the big drop in the metals, I took a small position in each of the PM's , 1 futures contact long each
What do you see as a resistance point for a breakout?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on September 21, 2018, 02:33:54 AM
What do you see as a resistance point for a breakout?
Which PM?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 21, 2018, 08:02:05 AM
Which PM?
Gold.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on September 25, 2018, 11:54:01 PM
Gold.
I am still waiting for a buy signal to add to my gold position, Silver already triggered a buy, I added another futures contract at $14.25.   Gold has a strong resistance at around 1212-1218, once above the 1220 with a strong close will be a good upside move. Platinum has initial resistance at 844-850,I am still long and might add more .
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 26, 2018, 08:24:18 AM
I am still waiting for a buy signal to add to my gold position, Silver already triggered a buy, I added another futures contract at $14.25.   Gold has a strong resistance at around 1212-1218, once above the 1220 with a strong close will be a good upside move. Platinum has initial resistance at 844-850,I am still long and might add more .
Thanks, I was going to guess around 1205-1210.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on September 26, 2018, 09:55:43 PM
Thanks, I was going to guess around 1205-1210.
You are 100% correct, it is always a range , not a set figure.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on October 03, 2018, 04:34:38 PM
Cannabis stocks to short.

Has anyone had luck finding Cannabis stocks at their brokers to short? I tried to short IGC ,India Globalization Capital at around $14 , it was up from .50 cents in August!!!!  Today it closed at $8.85.   All the others in the group could not find any stock to short. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QwWU0SRb/
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on October 11, 2018, 11:13:35 AM
Breakout for gold if it closes at these levels?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on October 11, 2018, 01:21:29 PM
Breakout for gold if it closes at these levels?
I bought more Gold at 1205 ,Silver at 14.37 and Platinum at 822. GDX and GDXJ are a good play on gold stocks, I bought some more at the opening, also ABX , NEM and GORO. 
Gold is at 1221 now , $60 above the last low. Looks like some smart fund money started to move to PMs and PM stocks.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on December 04, 2018, 01:51:31 AM
Gold at $1237.00 at a strong resistance area here, looks it is going to take it to the upside. Palladium at an all time high of $1218
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on December 04, 2018, 05:30:46 AM
Gold at $1237.00 at a strong resistance area here, looks it is going to take it to the upside. Palladium at an all time high of $1218
So should I sell a Palladium coin I was planning on selling anyways, or hold off?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on December 04, 2018, 06:13:40 PM
I still have a few palladium coins bought in 2008, I regret selling a big $$ amount of palladium kilo bars and coins at $780 , up from around $200, my point is it is hard to pinpoint the top, since it has been a steady nice up move and still no sign of a reversal.  Now it is even higher at $1234 , the thing is it is an an all time high with no more resistance up there. I am selling my last few coins tomorrow, though much higher prices are possible. I am currently watching platinum, at $800 is already $430+ below the price of palladium. In 2008 palladium was below $200 and platinum was at $2300, it always traded much higher than gold.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on December 04, 2018, 09:31:09 PM
Regarding today's negative stock market action, my thoughts are that it's primarily due to US markets being closed tomorrow, in a time of global uncertainty.

Any other thoughts?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on December 05, 2018, 01:36:26 AM
Regarding today's negative stock market action, my thoughts are that it's primarily due to US markets being closed tomorrow, in a time of global uncertainty.

Any other thoughts?
time of global uncertainty
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ACarr on December 05, 2018, 04:26:13 PM
Seems to me that it's a great time to buy gold
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on December 06, 2018, 02:06:52 PM
Seems to me that it's a great time to buy gold
Agree.If it breaks thought this resistance here between $1235-$1244 , it is now at $1238
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on December 06, 2018, 03:25:35 PM
Gold more than other PM?

How about SPPP (ETF)?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on December 07, 2018, 03:27:57 PM
Gold more than other PM?

How about SPPP (ETF)?
Yes, Gold looks better, it is now at $1250.  Palladium is very strong but is at an all time high and up big from $834 to $1240-$1260 in 3 months, Platinum is very weak and very undersold but I'll not buy till it shows a strong reversal so I can use a stop. Silver has to take a strong resistance at $15 to get bullish.
The stock market is getting beat bad today, if the SPX breaks below 2600 then look down below.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on December 07, 2018, 03:53:09 PM
Gold looking as good gold.  :)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on December 07, 2018, 04:18:10 PM
Gold looking as good gold.  :)
The real monthly major resistance is around a hundred points higher from here, if this happens to be taken , then a repeat of 2008-2009 can happen, with gold soaring and the market crashing.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on December 07, 2018, 04:20:36 PM
...then a repeat of 2008-2009 can happen, with gold soaring and the market crashing.
Hate to see that happen but it looks like a real possibility.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: YesThatsMe on December 11, 2018, 04:17:25 PM
@ludmilla, is ThinkorSwim (by TD Ameritrade) a good place to buy Forex, or is it expensive fees-wise? Want to buy GBP...

BTW all, Silver is looking nice and cheap, and tends to ride up with Gold...
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on December 11, 2018, 04:25:19 PM
@ludmilla, is ThinkorSwim (by TD Ameritrade) a good place to buy Forex, or is it expensive fees-wise? Want to buy GBP...

BTW all, Silver is looking nice and cheap, and tends to ride up with Gold...
Yes, I use Ameritrade and IB , Silver needs to take a strong resistance between $14.90 and $15 , today's high was $14.72 , almost there.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on January 02, 2019, 03:50:39 AM
Gold at $1237.00 at a strong resistance area here, looks it is going to take it to the upside. Palladium at an all time high of $1218
Gold just hit $1288.60, higher prices ahead.Silver started to look good now at $15.51 from the low of $13.90. Palladium at $1265. The Dow futures are currently down 505 points and the SPX futures down 55 points -2.2% and the NDX futures down 3% -187 points.  The markets look real bad while gold and silver are on the upside.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on January 28, 2019, 12:37:45 AM
I bought more Gold at 1205 ,Silver at 14.37 and Platinum at 822. GDX and GDXJ are a good play on gold stocks, I bought some more at the opening, also ABX , NEM and GORO. 
Gold is at 1221 now , $60 above the last low. Looks like some smart fund money started to move to PMs and PM stocks.
Gold is @ $1303 an area of last resistance before the $1360-$1370 last remaining resistance.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on February 19, 2019, 04:17:21 AM
Gold at a new ten month high of $1329 and moving higher , I have been adding up to my position on every dip, Silver looking good at $15.84 about to break out following Gold.Palladium at another all time high of $1491 up from $455 two years ago.

I am watching Platinum , looks like it bottomed, will add to position , it is very oversold and at some point will be as good as a buy as when palladium was at $250.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on February 20, 2019, 03:01:45 AM
Gold up to $1347 approaching the last overhead resistance of $1360-65, when taken will move much higher, Silver at $16.08 .
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on June 20, 2019, 10:06:06 AM
@ludmila next resistance level for gold?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on June 20, 2019, 11:31:18 AM
@ludmila next resistance level for gold?

And while we're at it, let's also look at TLT and/or ZROZ.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 21, 2019, 03:07:08 AM
@ludmila next resistance level for gold?
$1796, this does not mean it will go there, I am watching how it will react here, made a six year high of $1412 and now pulled back to $1393. I sold half my position at $1407 . The way gold shot up warns of problems coming, there will be a pull back, some profit taking,$1360-$1365 will become a strong support.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 21, 2019, 03:10:09 AM
And while we're at it, let's also look at TLT and/or ZROZ.
The TLT and ZROZ charts looks very similar to gold, right at resistance of $133 and $128.80.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on June 21, 2019, 09:10:43 AM
The TLT and ZROZ charts looks very similar to gold, right at resistance of $133 and $128.80.

So what does that mean practically for someone who is currently long, or for someone who wants to go long believing that long-term interest rates will go lower?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 21, 2019, 11:09:11 AM
BitCoin is doing amazing, almost at 10k a bitcoin, went up from $9,250 this week.
 
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Lou Bob on June 21, 2019, 12:35:45 PM
@CountValentine
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on June 21, 2019, 12:38:19 PM
@CountValentine
What?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Lou Bob on June 21, 2019, 03:05:10 PM
What?
saw bitcoin mentioned. Thought you would have a say on the matter.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on June 21, 2019, 03:07:00 PM
saw bitcoin mentioned. Thought you would have a say on the matter.
Don't know anything about BC. You probably have me confused with someone else.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Lou Bob on June 21, 2019, 07:44:47 PM
Don't know anything about BC. You probably have me confused with someone else.
who are you?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 21, 2019, 10:24:31 PM
So what does that mean practically for someone who is currently long, or for someone who wants to go long believing that long-term interest rates will go lower?
I myself will not be a buyer here, TLT was down - $1.46  today at the exact resistance I mentioned, it is a good area to watch , the $133 resistance is strong, I shorted TLT this morning at the open at $132.50 , a small position, my stop loss is $133.10 , very minimal risk. I also shorted SNAP at $14.86 yesterday, today was down to $14.55, both are short term trades .
On TLT, some indicators I use flashed a short term sell, it hit the upper linear regression on the chart which means it is over bought, plus there was a diversion on the 14 RSI and CCI , they did not make a higher high while the price did, alse the 21-8 time series gave a sell too.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 21, 2019, 10:35:50 PM
BitCoin is doing amazing, almost at 10k a bitcoin, went up from $9,250 this week.
Yes, I placed an order to buy before yesterday and the price jumped up without me getting filled, I did not want to chase it, now $10800, no resistance till $13500, I might get in for a short term trade on a pull back if we get one, it is overbought and can sell off first.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on June 23, 2019, 12:56:36 AM
I myself will not be a buyer here, TLT was down - $1.46  today at the exact resistance I mentioned, it is a good area to watch , the $133 resistance is strong, I shorted TLT this morning at the open at $132.50 , a small position, my stop loss is $133.10 , very minimal risk. I also shorted SNAP at $14.86 yesterday, today was down to $14.55, both are short term trades .
On TLT, some indicators I use flashed a short term sell, it hit the upper linear regression on the chart which means it is over bought, plus there was a diversion on the 14 RSI and CCI , they did not make a higher high while the price did, alse the 21-8 time series gave a sell too.

I don't know about short term, and I can assume TLT (or Treasuries) to be overbought, but with yields around the world being lower, I just don't understand how US yields aren't plunging even lower than where they are now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-21/the-world-now-has-13-trillion-of-debt-with-below-zero-yields?srnd=premium

Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 23, 2019, 01:15:53 AM
I don't know about short term, and I can assume TLT (or Treasuries) to be overbought, but with yields around the world being lower, I just don't understand how US yields aren't plunging even lower than where they are now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-21/the-world-now-has-13-trillion-of-debt-with-below-zero-yields?srnd=premium
I am with you on this. Just read the Bloomberg article and a similar one on FT .
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 23, 2019, 01:41:15 AM
Yes, I placed an order to buy before yesterday and the price jumped up without me getting filled, I did not want to chase it, now $10800, no resistance till $13500, I might get in for a short term trade on a pull back if we get one, it is overbought and can sell off first.
To bad I dipped my feet in so little.
 Should have bought more.
   I bought a few a 7-8k now at 11-12k.
 Crazy few weeks. Wonder if it's going to continue to the all time high again at 20k? 
     You never know with this crypto currency.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 23, 2019, 02:08:14 AM
To bad I dipped my feet in so little.
 Should have bought more.
   I bought a few a 7-8k now at 11-12k.
 Crazy few weeks. Wonder if it's going to continue to the all time high again at 20k? 
     You never know with this crypto currency.
Are you buying to hold for long term?Very volatile and viscous movements, on June 19 it dropped $850 in 5 minutes,staying long is ok as long as you use a trailing stop loss.I only trade shorter term and always use a stop and stick to it.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 23, 2019, 02:18:31 AM
Are you buying to hold for long term?Very volatile and viscous movements, on June 19 it dropped $850 in 5 minutes,staying long is ok as long as you use a trailing stop loss.I only trade shorter term and always use a stop and stick to it.
Didn't invest heavily, so for now went through square(cashapp) and playing by air.
   Just hate the exchange rate when buying and selling my bitcoins. Always getting less then what I had.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 25, 2019, 01:39:39 AM
Gold hit $1438 today.Now $1424 , first support $1410 , if it holds and this correction is short lived, i'll add to position.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on June 25, 2019, 06:59:55 AM
Is this a short squeeze driving this now?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 25, 2019, 10:38:27 PM
Is this a short squeeze driving this now?
The last resistance from years ago was around $1360 , it took it strongly, maybe the smart money sees something we don't , as long as it stays above $1360, the trend changed from sideways to up, a correction is currently underway, but so far not much. I am out for now looking for a new buying point.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 25, 2019, 11:29:11 PM
Are you buying to hold for long term?Very volatile and viscous movements, on June 19 it dropped $850 in 5 minutes,staying long is ok as long as you use a trailing stop loss.I only trade shorter term and always use a stop and stick to it.
   Is there any theory or reason whatsoever that I can assume the Bitcoin will be going up or fall suddently?

   Just looking at the past few weeks or month to two months it's been going up.
      Still not clear how it works, or if there is any theory behind it?
   To me it seems like playing the lottery and it's a hit or miss, while here chances might be a little bigger, hence you saw it going up and up, so you can assume it will continue to increase.
 With a lottery ticket, 50% you win, 50% you lose.
   While with these bitcoins I would presume that'll continue going up.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Joel on June 26, 2019, 12:26:32 AM
   Is there any theory or reason whatsoever that I can assume the Bitcoin will be going up or fall suddently?

   Just looking at the past few weeks or month to two months it's been going up.
      Still not clear how it works, or if there is any theory behind it?
   To me it seems like playing the lottery and it's a hit or miss, while here chances might be a little bigger, hence you saw it going up and up, so you can assume it will continue to increase.
 With a lottery ticket, 50% you win, 50% you lose.
   While with these bitcoins I would presume that'll continue going up.
Crypto Halving is the reason usually Google it.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 26, 2019, 12:28:35 AM
Crypto Halving is the reason usually Google it.
Half the reward for the minors?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 26, 2019, 01:38:01 AM
   Is there any theory or reason whatsoever that I can assume the Bitcoin will be going up or fall suddently?

   Just looking at the past few weeks or month to two months it's been going up.
      Still not clear how it works, or if there is any theory behind it?
   To me it seems like playing the lottery and it's a hit or miss, while here chances might be a little bigger, hence you saw it going up and up, so you can assume it will continue to increase.
 With a lottery ticket, 50% you win, 50% you lose.
   While with these bitcoins I would presume that'll continue going up.
BTC tripled in 2 months, and almost doubled in 2 weeks, try to ride it all the way up with a trailing stop to protect any profits you might have. Was just up over $1000 and I shorted 2 contracts for a quick day trade, not risking much , but if i am right cand end with a very nice profit.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 26, 2019, 02:01:32 AM
BTC tripled in 2 months, and almost doubled in 2 weeks, try to ride it all the way up with a trailing stop to protect any profits you might have. Was just up over $1000 and I shorted 2 contracts for a quick day trade, not risking much , but if i am right cand end with a very nice profit.
Who you go through when using a trailing stop?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 26, 2019, 02:05:47 AM
BTC tripled in 2 months, and almost doubled in 2 weeks, try to ride it all the way up with a trailing stop to protect any profits you might have. Was just up over $1000 and I shorted 2 contracts for a quick day trade, not risking much , but if i am right cand end with a very nice profit.
Maybe I should become a minor, if im getting a half of BTC that's nice cash.

 Or just invest in the stocks
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 26, 2019, 02:10:54 AM
Maybe I should become a minor, if im getting a half of BTC that's nice cash.

 Or just invest in the stocks
You can just use a mental stop if your trading platform does not allow placing a stop, though it is harder since BTC trades 24 hours a day and you are not able to watch it day and night, the best you can do is to never let any profit turn into a loss, so if it keeps going higher, keep raising your mental stop to trail the price, once the price hits your stop just sell, no one ever, can catch the exact tops or bottoms, but sometimes it does happen, I shorted BTC last year at the exact top and made a killing, the most important thing is to limit your losses, if you do, the profits will come.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 26, 2019, 02:17:02 AM
You can just use a mental stop if your trading platform does not allow placing a stop, though it is harder since BTC trades 24 hours a day and you are not able to watch it day and night, the best you can do is to never let any profit turn into a loss, so if it keeps going higher, keep raising your mental stop to trail the price, once the price hits your stop just sell, no one ever, can catch the exact tops or bottoms, but sometimes it does happen, I shorted BTC last year at the exact top and made a killing, the most important thing is to limit your losses, if you do, the profits will come.
That's all fine and dandy, but if I suppose BTC will reach 14k does that mean after it hits the 14k mark I'm suppose to withdraw all my funds? If it reached 14 then chances are it's going to reach 15 or more.
 By putting a mental stop your limiting your profit, but then again you can loose some as well, nothing stops it from plummeting even before reaching 14k and noone will tell you to remove the funds.

 Also if you set your stop at 14 and it creeps all the way to 15.5 you can take the risk as you made 1.5 more than your stop, so you have nothing to loose.
   I guess I need to do a bit more research on how the stop works with the pros and cons.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 26, 2019, 02:27:01 AM
You can just use a mental stop if your trading platform does not allow placing a stop, though it is harder since BTC trades 24 hours a day and you are not able to watch it day and night, the best you can do is to never let any profit turn into a loss, so if it keeps going higher, keep raising your mental stop to trail the price, once the price hits your stop just sell, no one ever, can catch the exact tops or bottoms, but sometimes it does happen, I shorted BTC last year at the exact top and made a killing, the most important thing is to limit your losses, if you do, the profits will come.
Wow insane $700 in a matter of hours.
  Now topping $13k.
 I think it's time to fund another few $.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 26, 2019, 02:27:51 AM
That's all fine and dandy, but if I suppose BTC will reach 14k does that mean after it hits the 14k mark I'm suppose to withdraw all my funds? If it reached 14 then chances are it's going to reach 15 or more.
 By putting a mental stop your limiting your profit, but then again you can loose some as well, nothing stops it from plummeting even before reaching 14k and noone will tell you to remove the funds.

 Also if you set your stop at 14 and it creeps all the way to 15.5 you can take the risk as you made 1.5 more than your stop, so you have nothing to loose.
   I guess I need to do a bit more research on how the stop works with the pros and cons.
There is a saying that you never go broke by taking a profit, and a profit here and another there adds to big money. Let me give you an e.g. I bought puts on 2 stocks, SNAP the July 5th 15 put and ROKU the July 5th 100 put. Twenty puts on SNAP , the stock went up against me one day then fell sharply, i got out today after holding for 2 days with a $650 profit. Now on ROKU the stock crashed today, I got out when it was down $4 and on 10 puts made $2600 , but the minute I got out the stock fell $3.5 more in less than an hour, i could have doubled my profit, but I never let it bother me, as I can't squeeze every penny from a trade. For me I have been successful as a short term trader, I do not hold anything more than hours or a few days, the most a few weeks occasionally when I see a big move.The most important thing I learned is to always cut your losses fast, never let a profit turn to a loss, and take your profit when you can, not when you have to. Sorry if I bored you with all this :)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 26, 2019, 02:34:29 AM
There is a saying that you never go broke by taking a profit, and a profit here and another there adds to big money. Let me give you an e.g. I bought puts on 2 stocks, SNAP the July 5th 15 put and ROKU the July 5th 100 put. Twenty puts on SNAP , the stock went up against me one day then fell sharply, i got out today after holding for 2 days with a $650 profit. Now on ROKU the stock crashed today, I got out when it was down $4 and on 10 puts made $2600 , but the minute I got out the stock fell $3.5 more in less than an hour, i could have doubled my profit, but I never let it bother me, as I can't squeeze every penny from a trade. For me I have been successful as a short term trader, I do not hold anything more than hours or a few days, the most a few weeks occasionally when I see a big move.The most important thing I learned is to always cut your losses fast, never let a profit turn to a loss, and take your profit when you can, not when you have to. Sorry if I bored you with all this :)
No not at all, actually enjoy reading your tips and tricks.
    Yes indeed very true with what you said, but then again when does one decide I'm going to stop at 10 or I'm going to stop at 20 where do you set your maxpoint?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 26, 2019, 02:43:42 AM
There is a saying that you never go broke by taking a profit, and a profit here and another there adds to big money. Let me give you an e.g. I bought puts on 2 stocks, SNAP the July 5th 15 put and ROKU the July 5th 100 put. Twenty puts on SNAP , the stock went up against me one day then fell sharply, i got out today after holding for 2 days with a $650 profit. Now on ROKU the stock crashed today, I got out when it was down $4 and on 10 puts made $2600 , but the minute I got out the stock fell $3.5 more in less than an hour, i could have doubled my profit, but I never let it bother me, as I can't squeeze every penny from a trade. For me I have been successful as a short term trader, I do not hold anything more than hours or a few days, the most a few weeks occasionally when I see a big move.The most important thing I learned is to always cut your losses fast, never let a profit turn to a loss, and take your profit when you can, not when you have to. Sorry if I bored you with all this :)
What trading site do you use for bitcoins?
  I'm using the cash app which is extremely easy, not sure if the best place. But for now it seems to be working for me.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 26, 2019, 02:49:41 AM
What trading site do you use for bitcoins?
  I'm using the cash app which is extremely easy, not sure if the best place. But for now it seems to be working for me.
I trade BTC futures.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 26, 2019, 02:51:46 AM
I trade BTC futures.
Will take a peak tom. Wonder if they both have the same exchange rate?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 27, 2019, 04:30:13 PM
Will take a peak tom. Wonder if they both have the same exchange rate?
I covered my shorts with a very nice profit. I think BTC is very oversold here.I think either 10300 will hold, if not 9450.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 27, 2019, 06:09:21 PM
I covered my shorts with a very nice profit. I think BTC is very oversold here.I think either 10300 will hold, if not 9450.
Bitcoin is like a real yo-yo one day up 5,000 on some days down 6,000.
  I think I should do like you said as soon as I see a nice profit, I just take my money out, or set in advanced a mental stop like you recommended.

 When was up 13,000 I was ahead with a few dollars now I'm cutting even if I pull out.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 27, 2019, 09:10:22 PM
Bitcoin is like a real yo-yo one day up 5,000 on some days down 6,000.
  I think I should do like you said as soon as I see a nice profit, I just take my money out, or set in advanced a mental stop like you recommended.

 When was up 13,000 I was ahead with a few dollars now I'm cutting even if I pull out.
Correct. I use a system which is both technical and measures sentiment, learned this from the best trader ever who was featured in the Market Wizards book , we had to sign a nondisclosure never to reveal his methods, look at where I said in the previous low will the current bottom come, $10330, look at a chart, I pinned the exact bottom to the cent, the bottom was $1330, I went long futures there gain and I just got out with another big profit. The most important thing is to take profits when it is going your way and keep using a trailing stop to protect the profits, and to never let a loss get big enough to hurt.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 27, 2019, 09:13:02 PM
Correct. I use a system which is both technical and measures sentiment, learned this from the best trader ever who was featured in the Market Wizards book , we had to sign a nondisclosure never to reveal his methods, look at where I said in the previous low will the current bottom come, $10330, look at a chart, I pinned the exact bottom to the cent, the bottom was $1330, I went long futures there gain and I just got out with another big profit. The most important thing is to take profits when it is going your way and keep using a trailing stop to protect the profits, and to never let a loss get big enough to hurt.
Interesting, ay you should have warned me to pull out.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 27, 2019, 09:17:25 PM
Interesting, ay you should have warned me to pull out.
The problem is I trade short term, if you are in for longer term you might still see higher prices, as you said, BTC moves like crazy, scary!! :)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on June 30, 2019, 09:42:05 PM
The problem is I trade short term, if you are in for longer term you might still see higher prices, as you said, BTC moves like crazy, scary!! :)
When you do reach your trailing stop do you withdraw the funds and then wait for the stock to fall and invest again, wait for it to rise pullout, wait for it to fall and invest?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on June 30, 2019, 10:38:31 PM
When you do reach your trailing stop do you withdraw the funds and then wait for the stock to fall and invest again, wait for it to rise pullout, wait for it to fall and invest?
PM sent.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 02, 2019, 03:59:50 PM
I saw somewhere today that 100% of traders are betting on a Fed rate cut on July 31st. (28% expecting a 50bps cut, and 72% expecting a 25% cut).

IDK, but this raises the contrarian emotions in me. Is there an easily tradeable way to profit by betting that the Fed doesn't cut rates on July 31st?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: LoLo on July 02, 2019, 04:39:37 PM
Buy SPX puts. A rate cut is priced into the calls already iirc.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on July 02, 2019, 04:42:59 PM
I saw somewhere today that 100% of traders are betting on a Fed rate cut on July 31st. (28% expecting a 50bps cut, and 72% expecting a 25% cut).

IDK, but this raises the contrarian emotions in me. Is there an easily tradeable way to profit by betting that the Fed doesn't cut rates on July 31st?
If they do not cut and hint at no cuts in the near future, these are the tradeable options , but I always need a chart confirmation
1. Long US $ vs other currencies. 2. Short stocks , like buying put options on the SPY ,QQQ etc 3. I would also think the precious metals will sell off too in such a scenario. Also TLT is an option

I think if this happens shorting stocks will be the best trade , as the market is EXTREMELY overbought, more than triple since the crash of 2009-2010.

Gold was up over $30 today again, looks like the smart money is accumulating Gold , knowing something is about to happen that the public is not aware off. I am still long half my Gold position, I missed on adding more yesterday.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 02, 2019, 04:43:45 PM
Buy SPX puts. A rate cut is priced into the calls already iirc.

There are many other things that can affect the SPX. I am looking for a pure play on the fed decision.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 02, 2019, 04:48:00 PM
If they do not cut and hint at no cuts in the near future, these are the tradeable options , but I always need a chart confirmation
1. Long US $ vs other currencies. 2. Short stocks , like buying put options on the SPY ,QQQ etc 3. I would also think the precious metals will sell off too in such a scenario. Also TLT is an option

I think if this happens shorting stocks will be the best trade , as the market is EXTREMELY overbought, more than triple since the crash of 2009-2010.

Gold was up over $30 today again, looks like the smart money is accumulating Gold , knowing something is about to happen that the public is not aware off. I am still long half my Gold position, I missed on adding more yesterday.

I am usually not a trader, and I'm long precious metals (through stocks and ETFs) as well as long-term Treasuries.

However, when 100% of people expect one thing, my senses say to me that there might be a profitable trade against such a consensus, but I am looking for a pure play on that specific outlook, not something that can be affected by other issues.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: LoLo on July 02, 2019, 04:55:04 PM
There are many other things that can affect the SPX. I am looking for a pure play on the fed decision.
Buy on the day of. market is usually fairly quiet until 2.

You can also trade interest rate swaps, don't know exactly how it works.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 02, 2019, 05:00:38 PM
Buy on the day of. market is usually fairly quiet until 2.

Sentiment might change by then. 100% to one side with just about a full month to go is insane IMHO (given many other factors, as well as opinions of well-respected veterans, such a Mohamed El-Erian).
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on July 02, 2019, 05:23:54 PM
Buy SPX puts. A rate cut is priced into the calls already iirc.
+100 but ill not overload since the risk of losing all is possible.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on July 02, 2019, 05:25:23 PM
There are many other things that can affect the SPX. I am looking for a pure play on the fed decision.
USD$?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: LoLo on July 02, 2019, 06:22:32 PM
@ludmila where do you set your stops (non-trailing)? Fixed %, or where your theory for entering is invalidated?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 02, 2019, 06:46:22 PM
+100 but ill not overload since the risk of losing all is possible.

I think I might just buy some SPY puts. The combination of my contrarian interest rate bet, along with the overbought situation you're describing, make this sound like a decent strategy.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on July 02, 2019, 07:08:22 PM
I think I might just buy some SPY puts. The combination of my contrarian interest rate bet, along with the overbought situation you're describing, make this sound like a decent strategy.
I might be joining in on the first signs of trouble :)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on July 02, 2019, 07:12:08 PM
@ludmila where do you set your stops (non-trailing)? Fixed %, or where your theory for entering is invalidated?
I use pivot points on daily and or 4 hour charts chart as my stops. Once it is hit I am out , no hesitation.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: LoLo on July 02, 2019, 07:13:03 PM
Hit as in a wick or candle close?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on July 02, 2019, 07:35:44 PM
Hit as in a wick or candle close?This way I do not think or hesitate.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on July 02, 2019, 07:52:36 PM
Gold was up over $30 today again, looks like the smart money is accumulating Gold , knowing something is about to happen that the public is not aware off. I am still long half my Gold position, I missed on adding more yesterday.
That was a really strong move after yesterday.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on July 02, 2019, 07:58:49 PM
That was a really strong move after yesterday.
Correct, previous times it reached newer highs it sold off pretty fast and big, this time it looks much stronger, the next small resistance is around $1470. Yesterday tricked me, I was going to add to my position but it had a weak close.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on July 02, 2019, 08:05:03 PM
Don't know how much more I can add since I deal in physical. Probably just ride this out. I can lock in a price at any time with a hedge. A couple of GC contracts cost peanuts to trade.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 05, 2019, 09:30:52 AM
This morning on Bloomberg.com:

Quote
U.S. stock futures fell to session lows and Treasury yields rose with the dollar after the Junes hiring report topped estimates, clouding the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Futures on the S&P 500 retreated after hiring rebounded in June in a sign of labor-market strength that may ease calls for a rate cut. The 10-year Treasury yield retook 2% and two-year rates hit 1.80%. The dollar surged versus major peers. Gold dropped below $1,400 an ounce.

The latest jobs report delivered signs that the economy remains on track, countering some recent data that showed weakness in manufacturing. Stocks rallied to records and bonds surged on market expectations that the central bank will lower interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point at its July meeting, though fed fund futures showed traders trimming the amount of easing they expect.

It looks like a rate cuts are off the table, Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist told Bloomberg TV. I mean, 224 and unemployment going up for quote-unquote the right reasons -- its a really, really strong report across the board. Its just very difficult to find any signs of the trade war, at least on the first go with this.

Oh how fast does sentiment make a U turn.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on July 09, 2019, 03:59:23 AM
The problem is I trade short term, if you are in for longer term you might still see higher prices, as you said, BTC moves like crazy, scary!! :)
And now back at 13k again. Thinking to pull out now and take the profit and reinvest when it drops.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 16, 2019, 12:52:34 PM
Seen today on Bloomberg.com

(https://i.imgur.com/JdjgXPp.png)

What am I missing? How does it make sense that US 10-year yields are higher than UK with the Brexit uncertainty (on top of European economic slowdown even without Brexit)?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on July 18, 2019, 05:15:25 PM
Correct, previous times it reached newer highs it sold off pretty fast and big, this time it looks much stronger, the next small resistance is around $1470. Yesterday tricked me, I was going to add to my position but it had a weak close.
Tested tomorrow then pullback?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 19, 2019, 07:54:21 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-19/gold-rush-heats-up-as-sub-zero-yields-spread-these-charts-show
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 25, 2019, 04:30:12 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-negative-yield-debt/?srnd=premium
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on July 25, 2019, 09:46:39 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-negative-yield-debt/?srnd=premium
Have you figured it out yet?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 04, 2019, 11:26:02 PM
The S&P is currently down 35 handles-points-. Gold is making a new high right now at $1456, from the pms I am only long gold now, and short stocks, I am watching palladium, platinum and silver here to see if Ill buy here.  Stocks are very scary for those long, does not look good.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 07, 2019, 04:55:55 AM
Gold just hit $1491 , there is no more resistance left till $1800, watching how it will react at $1500, if it will back off and have a small correction, or take the $1500 fast and keep going.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 07, 2019, 12:03:25 PM
Gold just hit $1491 , there is no more resistance left till $1800, watching how it will react at $1500, if it will back off and have a small correction, or take the $1500 fast and keep going.

And while we're at it, let's also look at TLT and/or ZROZ.

What do you see at resistance / trading points for those?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 08, 2019, 02:46:02 AM
What do you see at resistance / trading points for those?
TLT resistance $143.62 and after it no more resistance. ZROZ $143.05 and this is the only resistance now.

Gold shot past $1500 to $1510 , no sell off, it is at $1502 now, silver shot higher and closed above $17 for the fist time in a year, currently
$17.13 , next resistance $17.35 and $17.70.

Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 13, 2019, 03:52:37 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/greenspan-sees-no-barriers-to-prevent-negative-treasury-yields?srnd=premium
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 14, 2019, 12:24:40 PM
TLT resistance $143.62 and after it no more resistance. ZROZ $143.05 and this is the only resistance now.

Wow. Blew right through that this morning.  In the longer term I don't know what might stop it until US rates go negative. The question is if there's money to be made in the interim while riding it up?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on August 14, 2019, 12:28:09 PM
The question is if there's money to be made in the interim while riding it up?
Au baby!!!  :)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 14, 2019, 02:08:35 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-14/forget-the-yield-curve-the-30-year-treasury-yield-is-scary
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 14, 2019, 02:09:02 PM
Au baby!!!  :)

I'm there too, as well as Ag.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on August 14, 2019, 02:59:04 PM
I'm there too, as well as Ag.
To bulky.  ;)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 14, 2019, 03:01:28 PM
To bulky.  ;)

Not much physical.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 14, 2019, 05:04:26 PM
Wow. Blew right through that this morning.  In the longer term I don't know what might stop it until US rates go negative. The question is if there's money to be made in the interim while riding it up?
$145.69 today's close.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 14, 2019, 05:10:39 PM
I'm there too, as well as Ag.
I am still long gold futures and GLD calls. I was long GDX too but I got out yesterday, Gold has been acting better than gold stocks. As for stocks , DOW down 800 at the close, I covered all my SPX and DJI shorts, might miss the coming big down, but 800 points in one day is big, there might be a small rally before resuming downtrend.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 15, 2019, 12:13:59 AM
From April 2017:  Victor Sperandeo    We are now at a pivotal moment in financial and political history. In the coming four years we will see a destruction of wealth that the world has never before encountered. The illusory paper fortunes created by the credit bubble will be totally decimated.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: hvaces42 on August 15, 2019, 07:45:34 AM
From April 2017:  Victor Sperandeo    We are now at a pivotal moment in financial and political history. In the coming four years we will see a destruction of wealth that the world has never before encountered. The illusory paper fortunes created by the credit bubble will be totally decimated.
Worse than the "illusory paper fortunes" of the dot com bubble? the 2007-2008 housing crisis? I dont think we are capable of having more wiped out than in those bubbles. 
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 15, 2019, 08:30:29 AM
Worse than the "illusory paper fortunes" of the dot com bubble? the 2007-2008 housing crisis? I dont think we are capable of having more wiped out than in those bubbles.

Just ask Zimbabwean billionaires how it is done.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 15, 2019, 08:38:33 PM
Just ask Zimbabwean billionaires how it is done.
And Venezuela :)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on August 15, 2019, 08:46:55 PM
Nice action in gold the last few days.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 15, 2019, 08:54:29 PM
Nice action in gold the last few days.
Small change compared to TLT and ZROZ. I think those two have a clear target to reach, before considering whether they have reached full value
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 15, 2019, 08:56:14 PM
Nice action in gold the last few days.
I am still in, it needs to take the $1535 high from a couple of days ago, then it will move much higher, if not , there will be a correction first.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on August 15, 2019, 08:58:53 PM
I am still in, it needs to take the $1535 high from a couple of days ago, then it will move much higher, if not , there will be a correction first.
Holding above 1500 was a good sign. It needs a breather.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 15, 2019, 09:01:11 PM
Small change compared to TLT and ZROZ. I think those two have a clear target to reach, before considering whether they have reached full value
Agreed. As a first safety asset the bonds are soaring, some going into gold. In 2008 the bonds skyrocketed and then went down while gold went up big. So far no reason yet to sell TLT .
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 15, 2019, 09:03:02 PM
Holding above 1500 was a good sign. It needs a breather.
Yes, 250$ gain in less than 3 months, with no serious pull back, very good action.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: myi on August 16, 2019, 12:45:37 AM
Yes, 250$ gain in less than 3 months, with no serious pull back, very good action.
Question for you, what's your take when the market is plunging, is it best to pull out at for example 20k when I invested 22k and a loss of 2k and then reinvest when you the market rising? Hence you cutting your losses? And I'm talking where you don't assume the market is suddenly going to rise overnight. And why lose further. Now when it falls deeply you can reinvest the 20k vs you leaving it in and it falls to 15k?
   What's the strategy when the market plunges?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: dealfinder11 on August 16, 2019, 01:23:56 PM
Question for you, what's your take when the market is plunging, is it best to pull out at for example 20k when I invested 22k and a loss of 2k and then reinvest when you the market rising? Hence you cutting your losses? And I'm talking where you don't assume the market is suddenly going to rise overnight. And why lose further. Now when it falls deeply you can reinvest the 20k vs you leaving it in and it falls to 15k?
   What's the strategy when the market plunges?

So basically you are trying to time the markets? sigh .
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on August 16, 2019, 01:51:45 PM
So basically you are trying to time the markets? sigh .
I would just bet it all on black.  :)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: hvaces42 on August 16, 2019, 03:46:27 PM
I would just bet it all on black.  :)
But its not gambling. Please stop comparing it to gambling.  ::) ;D
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on August 16, 2019, 03:49:04 PM
But its not gambling. Please stop comparing it to gambling.  ::) ;D
A sure thing is not gambling. Black is a sure thing.  :-X
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 22, 2019, 07:28:48 PM
100 yr Austria bond :) and some interesting info

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EClXE0hXUAUA8m_?format=jpg&name=medium


/photo/2
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 22, 2019, 09:27:57 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-22/bond-world-on-high-alert-over-frickin-expensive-treasuries?srnd=premium
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 22, 2019, 10:24:30 PM
Question for you, what's your take when the market is plunging, is it best to pull out at for example 20k when I invested 22k and a loss of 2k and then reinvest when you the market rising? Hence you cutting your losses? And I'm talking where you don't assume the market is suddenly going to rise overnight. And why lose further. Now when it falls deeply you can reinvest the 20k vs you leaving it in and it falls to 15k?
   What's the strategy when the market plunges?
If you are in for the long term, by which I mean many years , do not put a lump sum at one time, buy on dips every month, and just stay invested. I myself do not invest for the long term, as I believe in the traders saying-in the long term we are all dead- as I have no patience and no tolerance for losses, so I trade short term , I am not gambling as the methods I use give me an edge, it is all a probability game.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 23, 2019, 01:07:47 PM
100 yr Austria bond :) and some interesting info

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EClXE0hXUAUA8m_?format=jpg&name=medium


/photo/2

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EClVR6cXkAIqXZI.jpg)

Seriously? Italy 30 year bonds tracking that close to US 30 year bonds (seem to be widening a tad recently, not because of the instability in Italy, but because US yields are starting to track towards where German and other yields are).  ::) While the spread between German and US bonds is so wide (keeping in mind that the only way Germany is keeping itself out of a shrinking population is by importing Muslim refugees by the masses).

I don't think we can see a carbon copy of the Austrian 100yr bond rally, just because the math is different on a 30 year bond, but seems to me like we are in for a rally that won't relent until US yields turn negative (on the 10yr).
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ludmila on August 23, 2019, 05:20:50 PM
Today Gold made new all time highs in Euro, JPY,GBP ,CAD,AUD and probably every other world currency except in USD, which might be coming soon. Today was up $30 in USD. In spite of the nice rally today, I had my first losing trade in months, and it is kind of a dumb move on my part, I was long GLD 142 call options that expire today, I closed the position yesterday with a small loss thinking today is expiration and Gold was not doing much yesterday, was a little down. If I held the position till today, would have made a nice profit, I still am short the SPY,NDX and DJI, and long the GDX options.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 28, 2019, 09:07:01 PM
100 yr Austria bond :) and some interesting info

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EClXE0hXUAUA8m_?format=jpg&name=medium


/photo/2

Coming soon to a market next door?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-28/mnuchin-says-ultra-long-bonds-under-very-serious-consideration?srnd=premium

I don't see why they shouldn't make a small issuance at each refunding round, keeping it a tight oversubscribed sale each time. As long as the global economy is in the current shape, I think there will be plenty of buyers.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on August 28, 2019, 09:17:12 PM
Coming soon to a market next door?
I hope this isn't a panic move.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 28, 2019, 09:26:53 PM
I hope this isn't a panic move.
Panic? How about a smart move.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on August 28, 2019, 09:35:03 PM
Panic? How about a smart move.
Possible but the way they flip flopped on payroll tax cut every day (even in the same day) it looks like panic.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 28, 2019, 09:48:20 PM
Possible but the way they flip flopped on payroll tax cut every day (even in the same day) it looks like panic.

That was just plain old noise. Was never serious.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on August 28, 2019, 10:04:09 PM
That was just plain old noise. Was never serious.
You can't explain everything away with just saying it is noise. It was a stupid panic move and that was why none of them were on the same page.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 28, 2019, 10:11:18 PM
You can't explain everything away with just saying it is noise. It was a stupid panic move and that was why none of them were on the same page.

Let's leave that discussion for the politics thread.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on August 28, 2019, 10:43:50 PM
Let's leave that discussion for the politics thread.
This is about the economy. You can't be saying stupid stuff that has the market on edge and say it is just noise. If you feel that is political then will just leave it at that.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on October 16, 2019, 10:20:50 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-16/record-low-0-0000000091-yield-on-japan-bond-shows-boj-effect

Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: HKFS on November 15, 2019, 08:09:37 AM
Can anyone recommend a broker for forex trading?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: chief_mag on November 25, 2019, 02:09:32 PM
Any recommendations on reading/watching/studying material for someone who wants to get into this stuff?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Scmcodes on November 28, 2019, 10:59:26 PM
Any recommendations on reading/watching/studying material for someone who wants to get into this stuff?

yes Pm me
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on January 06, 2020, 01:37:39 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-06/gold-has-been-this-overbought-only-three-times-in-two-decades
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on January 06, 2020, 04:18:52 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-06/gold-has-been-this-overbought-only-three-times-in-two-decades
"Without a further escalation of Middle East tensions..."
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on January 06, 2020, 05:10:03 PM
"Without a further escalation of Middle East tensions..."

Timing and intensity of which is anyone's guess.

The point of the article is looking at the overbought situation, and the likely price action in the NEAR FUTURE, absent an immediate event that could change everything.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 01, 2020, 03:57:44 PM
I didn't expect what we are currently seeing when I wrote that I believe US Treasuries are heading towards negative rates. I thought it would be more gradual. TLT and ZROZ are on a tear.

I might be wrong, but the way things are shaping up I would guess that the 10yr bond would go below 1.00% by the end of this week. 30 year bond will take a little longer to get to sub 1%, but I think it's on the horizon. At what point will the 10yr bond go to 0% or negative? Will the 30yr bond get there? Will we see massive scale refunding once rates go negative? It would save the US quite a bit in interest payments.

Bought some DUST on Friday to protect Gold related holdings.

Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 03, 2020, 03:41:18 PM
I didn't expect what we are currently seeing when I wrote that I believe US Treasuries are heading towards negative rates. I thought it would be more gradual. TLT and ZROZ are on a tear.

I might be wrong, but the way things are shaping up I would guess that the 10yr bond would go below 1.00% by the end of this week. 30 year bond will take a little longer to get to sub 1%, but I think it's on the horizon. At what point will the 10yr bond go to 0% or negative? Will the 30yr bond get there? Will we see massive scale refunding once rates go negative? It would save the US quite a bit in interest payments.

Bought some DUST on Friday to protect Gold related holdings.


And while rates are dropping across the curve, to my unprofessional eye it seems like the 10-30 segment of the yield curve is steepening.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 06, 2020, 02:05:38 PM
Crazy moves in US Treasuries over the last 24 hours. I've had conviction that rates are heading much lower, but I guess I didn't have the guts to put more money into it than I did.

I'm now trying to think of it in actual number terms.

Here's where the 30 yr bond is now (source: Marketwatch.com):
(https://i.imgur.com/seNTNfd.png)

Here are where some other sovereigns are:
(https://i.imgur.com/5hWZ8F9.png)

So now I can plug in my numbers here (https://dqydj.com/bond-pricing-calculator/) and get to a price target.

If I think the yield is going to match the UK, so my price target is 136 1/32 for a ~16.25% upside.
(https://i.imgur.com/8wK2PtU.png)

If I think we match France, then my price target is $146 18/32 for a ~25.25% upside
(https://i.imgur.com/gyrf9JO.png)

If I think we're going to 0% yield then my price target is $160 for a ~36.75% upside.

Etc.

With significant gains already in, do I just pull the trigger on some more, or wait for a pullback. Do I go all in and get a leveraged ETF?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: aygart on March 09, 2020, 10:17:26 AM
Is there any simple way to take advantage when forward commodity strips are trading differently than the underlying months?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: davidd75 on March 12, 2020, 01:05:26 PM
is it a pretty prudent and safe idea to switch my mutual funds to safer bond or cash holdings until the market volatility wanes?  At worst I don't capitalize on potential gains?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: avromie7 on March 12, 2020, 02:03:57 PM
is it a pretty prudent and safe idea to switch my mutual funds to safer bond or cash holdings until the market volatility wanes?  At worst I don't capitalize on potential gains?
At worst you miss the re-entry and you're stuck buying back at a higher price.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: davidd75 on March 12, 2020, 02:31:52 PM
At worst you miss the re-entry and you're stuck buying back at a higher price.

so what are most people doing do you think switching over?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: avromie7 on March 12, 2020, 05:45:13 PM
so what are most people doing do you think switching over?
Anyone investing for the long term should just stay put and not fret over this. I have said many times (not on DDF), I invested in some of the most aggressive funds my 401k offers, and I know there is a big chance I will lose 1/2 of my portfolio in a market downturn but I have decades before I can begin withdrawing and I know I'll be much better off in the long term just taking the loses and the gains that come with that strategy.

ETA: I just checked, and it's down 17.63%YTD as of yesterday - 3/11/2020
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on March 12, 2020, 06:05:21 PM
Anyone investing for the long term should just stay put and not fret over this.
Let me tell you a little story. When I bought my first insurance policy their sales pitch was, never in the history of the company did dividends ever decrease. It was 100% true. You want to guess what happened two years latter? Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 12, 2020, 06:19:37 PM
Let me tell you a little story. When I bought my first insurance policy their sales pitch was, never in the history of the company did dividends ever decrease. It was 100% true. You want to guess what happened two years latter? Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

The reason stock dividends historically exist and pay more than bond interest is precisely due to the inherent risks and the fact that dividends are NEVER guaranteed. The nice thing about some insurance policies is that some have strong guarnatees, and while they might not look that rosy when everything around is doing well, they sure look beautiful when everything all around is crumbling, one can't get any yield on safe money, and an insurance policy is providing guaranteed growth exceeding the safe money rates, and will usually also pay dividends (in the case of a participating whole life policy from a mutual company) as they have even at difficult times (such as world wars, pandemics, and financial distress). Those dividends are likely to be lower than what was illustrated when times were better, as the components that go into the dividend - investment returns, mortality experience, and company expenses, can change, but a properly capitalized insurance company will have no problem outperforming the guaranteed assumptions used to price the policy).
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ltttc on March 12, 2020, 06:57:30 PM
Let me tell you a little story. When I bought my first insurance policy their sales pitch was, never in the history of the company did dividends ever decrease. It was 100% true. You want to guess what happened two years latter? Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Just curious - Would you suggest term over whole life taking into consideration the expense/benefit ratio?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on March 12, 2020, 07:00:02 PM
Just curious - Would you suggest term over whole life taking into consideration the expense/benefit ratio?
Wrong guy to ask. @ExGingi would be the one to ask.
I was just pointing out just because something has happened for the last 100 years does not mean it will continue to happen for the next 100 years.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ltttc on March 12, 2020, 07:02:05 PM
Wrong guy to ask. @ExGingi would be the one to ask.
I was just pointing out just because something has happened for the last 100 years does not mean it will continue to happen for the next 100 years.
A broker will always tell you how wonderful, no essential, whole life is  ;)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on March 12, 2020, 07:06:25 PM
A broker will always tell you how wonderful, no essential, whole life is  ;)
I hear ya. Back when I bought the policy I should have 1mm+ in CV today. This was based on the current dividend table at the time. I am embarrassed to say what the actual CV is today.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ltttc on March 12, 2020, 07:10:12 PM
I hear ya. Back when I bought the policy I should have 1mm+ in CV today. This was based on the current dividend table at the time. I am embarrassed to say what the actual CV is today.
Wow! I was told the same, fell for it and purchased. I just wonder if this is the game they're playing for decades. Also, I don't know why I'm constantly having people ask me the term vs whole life question, but I am wondering if term is the way to go. (My spouse and I have both)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 12, 2020, 07:17:00 PM
I hear ya. Back when I bought the policy I should have 1mm+ in CV today. This was based on the current dividend table at the time. I am embarrassed to say what the actual CV is today.

Let me guess: Bank interest rates back then were in excess of 10%.

We've been in a bond supercycle since then. Just ask A. Gary Shilling. There will be inflation, and possibly hyperinflation in our future. How far out that might be, is anyone's guess. In the meantime, inflation has been coming down, and we are in a deflationary cycle right now (and COVID-19 is just accelerating that). But there are major imbalances that won't just resolve themselves without some kind of shock. There will be a great reset at some point, and things will be more logical and normal. In the meantime, we have to deal with the reality on the ground.

A broker will always tell you how wonderful, no essential, whole life is  ;)
Whole Life can be structured in a right or wrong way. It can be the right thing for some, and the wrong thing for others. For most people I know, a mix of Whole Life and Term to address their insurance needs is the right thing. For those sitting on hoards of cash and having a long life expectancy ahead of them, Whole Life is usually an extremely attractive option (especially in today's day and age when arbitrage can be used to leverage the cash value at a cost below the growth of the cash value).
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 15, 2020, 04:17:45 PM
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Joel on March 15, 2020, 04:18:27 PM
Going to be a fun day tomorrow.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 29, 2020, 11:57:11 PM
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Chapshnell on March 30, 2020, 12:26:38 AM

Explain in simple english please
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 30, 2020, 12:41:20 AM
Explain in simple english please

Some varieties of US crude oil are seeing prices drop extremely low. One trading house is asking producers to pay them to take delivery of one specific type used for asphalt, as producers run out of storage space and demand has dropped with nowhere to ship or store the product.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 30, 2020, 12:42:50 AM
The oil shock isn't over yet.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Baglach on March 30, 2020, 11:33:38 AM
Would anyone buy Airline Stocks now?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 30, 2020, 09:51:28 PM
The oil shock isn't over yet.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on March 30, 2020, 10:03:12 PM
The oil shock isn't over yet.
Oil is a non-issue currently.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: aygart on March 30, 2020, 10:06:07 PM
Oil is a non-issue currently.
Until the drillers all go bankrupt.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Shmobaum on March 31, 2020, 01:10:51 AM
Would anyone buy Airline Stocks now?
Absolutely
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 03, 2020, 12:53:25 PM
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on April 03, 2020, 01:02:00 PM

It really does require explanation. Those facts are real and I agree with them. But they do not belong under the category of Oil Economics 101.

Oil Economics 101 would state that you don't extract oil if it costs you more to extract than to sell. It would state that there's a very limited time frame in which any actor could keep that up just to accomplish strategic goals. It would also state that the strategic goals are short term at best, since even if Russia puts Saudi Arabia out of business their oil is not drying up.

Oil Economics 201 would state an axiom that oil prices will always spike before long, because production is such a volatile business. If I were to fly a drone into that area prices would double. So no matter what the facts are, we know what the long term price trajectory is, as long as we can manage to stay solvent.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 03, 2020, 01:05:09 PM
Oil Economics 201 would state an axiom that oil prices will always spike before long, because production is such a volatile business. If I were to fly a drone into that area prices would double. So no matter what the facts are, we know what the long term price trajectory is, as long as we can manage to stay solvent.

Ever heard the saying: "markets can remain irrational for longer than you stay solvent"? That might be Keynes 101.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on April 03, 2020, 01:34:03 PM
Ever heard the saying: "markets can remain irrational for longer than you stay solvent"? That might be Keynes 101.

That's what I was alluding to. The takeaway is that I - as an individual - would never bet against an irrational market. But I am 100% confident that the market price for oil will scream it's way back up before long. 99% chance that I get the timing wrong but the likelihood of the prediction coming true approaches 100% as you expand the timeframe of the bet.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: AsherO on April 03, 2020, 01:52:18 PM
That's what I was alluding to. The takeaway is that I - as an individual - would never bet against an irrational market. But I am 100% confident that the market price for oil will scream it's way back up before long. 99% chance that I get the timing wrong but the likelihood of the prediction coming true approaches 100% as you expand the timeframe of the bet.

Just because youre right about it happening eventually doesnt mean itll happen before long. The difference between those two is like to be more than 1% chance.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 03, 2020, 01:53:19 PM
Just because youre right about it happening eventually doesnt mean itll happen before long. The difference between those two is like to be more than 1% chance.

And that is the meaning of:

Ever heard the saying: "markets can remain irrational for longer than you stay solvent"? That might be Keynes 101.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: AsherO on April 03, 2020, 02:14:34 PM
And that is the meaning of:


The difference is that my OTnik brain cant wrap itself around what you wrote.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on April 03, 2020, 04:06:22 PM
Just because youre right about it happening eventually doesnt mean itll happen before long. The difference between those two is like to be more than 1% chance.

I see where you got 1% from my 99% and 100% but that's not what I meant. Before long is vague and we all agree that it's impossible to pin down how long. The quote that Exgingy brought just means that if you bet on it going back up in 6 months, there's a good chance it goes up in 6 months plus 1 day and you are then bankrupt.

I personally think it'll be back to $40-$50 by June, but I'd have to be stupid to put money on it.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: aygart on April 03, 2020, 06:19:33 PM
Oil rigs can go offline very quickly. Many smaller drillers will go bankrupt but the weeks will still bee there. The larger companies will snap them up and let them sit
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 03, 2020, 06:33:53 PM
The quote that Exgingy brought just means that if you bet on it going back up in 6 months, there's a good chance it goes up in 6 months plus 1 day and you are then bankrupt.

That is absolutely NOT what is meant by Keynes quote.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Zevwolf on April 19, 2020, 10:31:44 PM
Crude Oil 15.63-2.64 (-14.45%) 20 year low.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 19, 2020, 10:56:29 PM
Crude Oil 15.63-2.64 (-14.45%) 20 year low.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/oil-drops-to-18-year-low-on-global-demand-crunch-storage-woes


Quote
Near-term prices for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, are trading at huge discounts to later-dated contracts on concern the storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, will fill to capacity. That has seen prices disconnect from Brent futures in London. Buyers in Texas are offering as little as $2 a barrel for some oil streams, raising the possibility that American producers may soon have to pay customers to take crude off their hands.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Chapshnell on April 20, 2020, 07:13:47 AM
Wow
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 20, 2020, 07:43:34 AM
Wow
Catch some real fast so the duck can keep on bathing in it to maintain the color.  ;D
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Chapshnell on April 20, 2020, 08:49:51 AM
Not normal
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 20, 2020, 08:55:36 AM
Not normal

Well some grades are much lower (and negative).
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on April 20, 2020, 10:34:35 AM
Well some grades are much lower (and negative).

Empty out your basement and pay for a May delivery. Flip that stuff next Pesach :)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: aygart on April 20, 2020, 10:39:47 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/oil-drops-to-18-year-low-on-global-demand-crunch-storage-woes


Watch NG and its relationship.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Chapshnell on April 20, 2020, 11:29:36 AM
Omg
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Mordyk on April 20, 2020, 11:44:47 AM
what ticker to invest in some sort of rebound of crude?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 20, 2020, 11:48:49 AM
what ticker to invest in some sort of rebound of crude?

USO?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Chapshnell on April 20, 2020, 12:30:02 PM
What a fall.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Zevwolf on April 20, 2020, 12:37:55 PM
Is storage so expensive that crude oil June futures sell for 14$ higher than May?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Zevwolf on April 20, 2020, 12:39:04 PM
What a fall.
$7.68-10.59 -57.96%
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Zevwolf on April 20, 2020, 01:02:00 PM
$7.68-10.59 -57.96%
$5.16-13.11 -71.76%
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Chapshnell on April 20, 2020, 01:43:48 PM
$2.90 LOL
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Chapshnell on April 20, 2020, 01:48:19 PM
$1.04 hahahahaha. 99c store a barrell of oil
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Zevwolf on April 20, 2020, 02:05:30 PM
$1.04 hahahahaha. 99c store a barrell of oil
can I buy and sell it for June for 22$
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/clm20
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Zevwolf on April 20, 2020, 02:06:40 PM
$1.04 hahahahaha. 99c store a barrell of oil
$0.23
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Lurker on April 20, 2020, 02:07:53 PM
How do I buy?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Chapshnell on April 20, 2020, 02:10:05 PM
futures. see deals thread I posted a screenshot
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Zevwolf on April 20, 2020, 02:23:01 PM
$0.23
$-1.43-19.70 -107.83%
Why sell on a minus?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 20, 2020, 02:44:37 PM
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oils-may-contract-has-just-gone-negative-plunging-154-and-trading-at-negative-10-a-barrel-2020-04-20?mod=bnbh_mwarticle

(https://i.imgur.com/AlTJZCo.png)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on April 20, 2020, 02:59:13 PM
How do I buy?

Contract Unit   1,000 barrels

Termination Of Trading   Trading terminates 3 business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month prior to the contract month. If the 25th calendar day is not a business day, trading terminates 4 business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month prior to the contract month.

Delivery Procedure   Delivery shall be made free-on-board ("F.O.B.") at any pipeline or storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma with pipeline access to Enterprise, Cushing storage or Enbridge, Cushing storage. Delivery shall be made in accordance with all applicable Federal executive orders and all applicable Federal, State and local laws and regulations.

At buyer's option, delivery shall be made by any of the following methods: (1) by interfacility transfer ("pumpover") into a designated pipeline or storage facility with access to seller's incoming pipeline or storage facility; (2) by in-line (or in-system) transfer, or book-out of title to the buyer; or (3) if the seller agrees to such transfer and if the facility used by the seller allows for such transfer, without physical movement of product, by in-tank transfer of title to the buyer.

Delivery Period   
(A) Delivery shall take place no earlier than the first calendar day of the delivery month and no later than the last calendar day of the delivery month.

(B) It is the short's obligation to ensure that its crude oil receipts, including each specific foreign crude oil stream, if applicable, are available to begin flowing ratably in Cushing, Oklahoma by the first day of the delivery month, in accord with generally accepted pipeline scheduling practices.

(C) Transfer of title-The seller shall give the buyer pipeline ticket, any other quantitative certificates and all appropriate documents upon receipt of payment.

The seller shall provide preliminary confirmation of title transfer at the time of delivery by telex or other appropriate form of documentation.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: aygart on April 20, 2020, 03:01:33 PM
Be very careful buying these since contract settles this week
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on April 20, 2020, 03:04:02 PM
If you can pull off the logistics of receiving a shipment, and find enough buddies to divide up and store 1,000 barrels of crude oil, the seller will pay you $20,000 - $37,000 to take it off their hands. Buyer's group deal of a lifetime!
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Mordyk on April 20, 2020, 05:27:19 PM
.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on April 20, 2020, 05:50:08 PM
So how do you think stocks will do with the oil crash?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Chapshnell on April 20, 2020, 09:08:17 PM
Buy futures, bribe a gov official to say that oil may cure corona & you make a lot of money :)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 21, 2020, 08:24:08 AM
USO?

Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 21, 2020, 08:24:52 AM
Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on April 21, 2020, 08:33:26 AM
USO?
You buying?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 21, 2020, 08:40:51 AM
You buying?

You selling at below $0 for me to consider buying?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 21, 2020, 08:42:46 AM
ETFs/ETNs might be the next casualty of this crisis.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 21, 2020, 09:05:21 AM
You buying?
Halted, pending news.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on April 21, 2020, 09:56:12 AM
ETFs/ETNs might be the next casualty of this crisis.

UWT already went bust in March. 3x leverage so of course the first casualty. But commodity tracking ETNs are always going to end up going broke and it doesn't necessarily take a crisis to do it.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: AsherO on April 21, 2020, 09:59:52 AM
Halted, pending news.

More news than we already had?...
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on April 21, 2020, 10:18:17 AM
More news than we already had?...

Exactly. When the nutcases in charge of Saudi and Russian production decided to keep up the high production levels even though demand data was showing real drops, it was a foregone conclusion that most of that oil would not be able to be used. The problem is that the futures market is designed to give producers a price in advance for delivery at a future date, so as long as investors/speculators were buying the futures, producers had no real incentive to pay attention to real demand.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on April 21, 2020, 10:19:57 AM
Exactly. When the nutcases in charge of Saudi and Russian production decided to keep up the high production levels even though demand data was showing real drops, it was a foregone conclusion that most of that oil would not be able to be used. The problem is that the futures market is designed to give producers a price in advance for delivery at a future date, so as long as investors/speculators were buying the futures, producers had no real incentive to pay attention to real demand.
Maybe these nutcases have a different agenda?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on April 21, 2020, 10:20:25 AM
Maybe these nutcases have a different agenda?

QED
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: aygart on April 21, 2020, 10:20:50 AM
What happens when all of those who are holding contracts are unable to take delivery? What happens if they realize before and all sell on settle day?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on April 21, 2020, 10:29:55 AM
What does USO track, futures price?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 21, 2020, 12:03:24 PM
What does USO track, futures price?

It owns about 1/3 of the outstanding June contract. Not sure what it is supposed to track.

Exactly. When the nutcases in charge of Saudi and Russian production decided to keep up the high production levels even though demand data was showing real drops, it was a foregone conclusion that most of that oil would not be able to be used. The problem is that the futures market is designed to give producers a price in advance for delivery at a future date, so as long as investors/speculators were buying the futures, producers had no real incentive to pay attention to real demand.

Not sure that is all that's behind this. This might be a domestic (Cushing, OK) issue. Just look at the difference between WTI and Brent.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: CountValentine on April 21, 2020, 01:43:46 PM
You buying?
Think I will wait.  :)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/04/20/the-us-oil-etf-uso-is-the-culprit-behind-oils-massive-plunge/#75f0cea824e8
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 21, 2020, 02:17:13 PM
More news than we already had?...

Quote
11:53 AM EDT, 04/21/2020 (MT Newswires) -- United States Oil Fund (USO) shares were 21.8% lower Tuesday morning after the manager of the exchange-traded security said in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission it is temporarily suspending the issuance of new "creation baskets" amid the plunging crude prices.

Under ETF rules, a creation basket is a mechanism that allows ETFs to create new shares, but with the suspension in place, the ETF will trade with a fixed number of shares.

The fund also said it has already issued all of its remaining registered shares. Trading in USO shares was briefly halted Tuesday morning before the opening bell, and it plunged after trading resumed.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 22, 2020, 12:31:46 AM
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/gold-what-if-silliness-BqBFCktMoUqqDp-GhI71OQ
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Joel on April 22, 2020, 01:57:39 AM
Anyone else bought oxy?
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 22, 2020, 06:38:24 AM
Anyone else bought oxy?

At the wrong time.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: Lurker on April 22, 2020, 08:42:39 AM
Anyone else bought oxy?

My dealer is telling me to invest now, with the Mexican pipelines down and all.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 22, 2020, 11:51:28 AM
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 28, 2020, 04:14:48 AM
Fascinating thread. (Language warning).

Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: shwarmabob on April 28, 2020, 04:34:09 PM
What does USO track, futures price?
it's a random number generator
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: dovy2 on May 04, 2020, 07:15:48 PM
with markets so volatile right now... if anyone is intrested in joining a FB group to discuss all crypto things..
check it out
https://www.facebook.com/groups/2658570547581892/?ref=share

(sorry for cross-posting - it's noigaiah to both threads)
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: aygart on May 15, 2020, 09:40:43 AM
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/negative-oil-prices-caused-trader-buying-25000-oil-barrels-2020-5-1029201266
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on May 24, 2020, 12:06:10 AM
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on May 24, 2020, 04:22:12 PM
Interesting thread (click on each of those tweets to read their respective threads).
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: shnozolla on June 23, 2020, 12:52:50 PM
I want to send a transfer from a bank in Europe to the US (from EUR to USD) what is the best way?

My two options:
1) Using the banks directly, Bank in Europe -> Bank of America (using wire xfer)
2) Using TransferWise.

I have a feeling I will be ripped off using method 1 since bofa doesn't publish their exchange rates and i'll only find out how much i'll receive once it's done.
With TransferWise i'll get an upfront cost and it happens to be one of the lowest in the industry, it's just a bit indirect.

Anyone have experience with Foreign currency incoming wire transfers?

Thanks.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on June 23, 2020, 01:00:00 PM
I want to send a transfer from a bank in Europe to the US (from EUR to USD) what is the best way?

My two options:
1) Using the banks directly, Bank in Europe -> Bank of America (using wire xfer)
2) Using TransferWise.

I have a feeling I will be ripped off using method 1 since bofa doesn't publish their exchange rates and i'll only find out how much i'll receive once it's done.
With TransferWise i'll get an upfront cost and it happens to be one of the lowest in the industry, it's just a bit indirect.

Anyone have experience with Foreign currency incoming wire transfers?

Thanks.
This is the wrong thread for this. You can find some info in the following threads:

https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=80376.0
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=107139.0
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=111776.0
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=107841.0
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on June 25, 2020, 10:52:40 AM
You forgot the bitcoin thread  ;D
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 09, 2020, 05:13:06 PM
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on July 09, 2020, 06:09:17 PM

Lower for longer is inevitable anyway because it's the only way to prevent US from defaulting
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 09, 2020, 06:58:06 PM
Lower for longer is inevitable anyway because it's the only way to prevent US from defaulting

The deeper they dig themselves into the hole, the more impossible it becomes to climb out of it. Though they did have Japan to look at. They could have opted for creative destruction back in 2008 but decided that America couldn't endure the sharp brief pain in order to emerge stronger, so they went down this longer path that can only end with more pain, though it might be a long time until the day of reckoning comes.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on July 10, 2020, 10:18:32 AM
The deeper they dig themselves into the hole, the more impossible it becomes to climb out of it. Though they did have Japan to look at. They could have opted for creative destruction back in 2008 but decided that America couldn't endure the sharp brief pain in order to emerge stronger, so they went down this longer path that can only end with more pain, though it might be a long time until the day of reckoning comes.

Might not be long. One more multi-trillion dollar stimulus package would make the clock hit 12.

We long ago sailed past the point where we could have grown our way out of debt. Now the best we can hope for is to hold the status quo (i.e. keep debt servicing costs low by issuing new debt at near 0% rates for as long as buyers will show up). The other choices are hyper-inflation or default. If interest rates rise in the rest of the world the US will be pushed over the edge.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on July 23, 2020, 11:00:44 AM
Fascinating, from a brilliant guy.

https://players.brightcove.net/5298920694001/k7kYTMBz75_default/index.html?videoId=5845950086001
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 09, 2020, 12:43:50 AM
Great interview

https://youtu.be/HjmAlda2U3s
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 10, 2020, 12:47:04 AM
Another brilliant interview with one of the greatest minds in the business.

Transcript of a podcast: https://medium.com/@ttmygh/grant-williams-podcast-lacy-hunt-8409df5eb203
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: avromie7 on August 11, 2020, 11:15:37 AM
Might not be long. One more multi-trillion dollar stimulus package would make the clock hit 12.

We long ago sailed past the point where we could have grown our way out of debt. Now the best we can hope for is to hold the status quo (i.e. keep debt servicing costs low by issuing new debt at near 0% rates for as long as buyers will show up). The other choices are hyper-inflation or default. If interest rates rise in the rest of the world the US will be pushed over the edge.
If we stop borrowing, we can grow our way out of debt. It would take the better part of a century, but an increase in interest rates would still be manageable.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 11, 2020, 11:22:27 AM
If we stop borrowing, we can grow our way out of debt. It would take the better part of a century, but an increase in interest rates would still be manageable.

The growth will have to outpace the debt by far. Read the interview with Lacy Hunt that I posted above.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: yos9694 on August 11, 2020, 11:42:20 AM
The growth will have to outpace the debt by far. Read the interview with Lacy Hunt that I posted above.

The only people who think it's possible to grow our way out are the ones who haven't done the math. A simple calculation to start with is how much would a 1% increase in interest rates increase the annual cost of debt servicing. To get back to "normal" rate levels you'd then have to multiply that by 4.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 11, 2020, 09:03:22 PM
The only people who think it's possible to grow our way out are the ones who haven't done the math. A simple calculation to start with is how much would a 1% increase in interest rates increase the annual cost of debt servicing. To get back to "normal" rate levels you'd then have to multiply that by 4.

Which is why rates will stay low until there is a great reset. A rise in rates will bring about a serious and ferocious implosion.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on August 17, 2020, 09:37:58 PM
Fascinating piece of history in this Twitter thread:

Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on November 13, 2020, 01:27:05 PM
Here we go again. Just a cost of doing business accounting line item, with no jail terms and no personal accountability.

#RiggedMarkets #Corruption

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/jpmorgan-chase-co-agrees-pay-920-million-connection-schemes-defraud-precious-metals-and-us
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on December 24, 2020, 03:48:33 PM
https://nation.com.pk/23-Dec-2020/turkey-announces-major-gold-reserve-discovery-in-first-ottoman-capital

Will this save the TRL?

/s
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on January 03, 2021, 04:40:03 PM
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: AsherO on February 23, 2021, 07:38:24 PM
Forex question:

Is a 1.9T stimulus likely weaken the dollar vs. other currencies? I guess since the stimulus is pretty much a given and only a matter of time, maybe its already cause the USD to decline...
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on February 23, 2021, 09:22:56 PM
Forex question:

Is a 1.9T stimulus likely weaken the dollar vs. other currencies? I guess since the stimulus is pretty much a given and only a matter of time, maybe its already cause the USD to decline...

Not trying to predict one way or the other, but the famous saying that "the USD is the absolute worst currency in the world.... except for all others" comes to mind.

The bottom line is that all (indebted) countries would love to devalue their currency, but have to balance it against other interests and make it ever so slow.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on February 27, 2021, 11:50:24 AM
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on March 03, 2021, 05:57:00 AM


Let's just say that I'm comfortable being on the side of some of the smartest guys in the financial markets.
Title: Re: Forex, futures and stocks trading
Post by: ExGingi on April 06, 2021, 04:31:05 PM
https://www.danielscrivner.com/notes/simon-mikhailovich-outliers-transcript