Post by: Dan on August 29, 2018, 11:53:53 AM
https://www.dansdeals.com/advertisement/2nd-chances-exist-win-cruise-aboard-journey-lifetime-antarctica-3500-cash-sea-kayaking-package/
Post by: EJB on August 29, 2018, 11:54:38 AM
Post by: Dan on August 29, 2018, 11:55:48 AM
Post by: whYME on August 29, 2018, 11:58:55 AM
I'd probably cave to my FOMO and buy a ticket, but I'm not really looking for another raffle(https://emoji.tapatalk-cdn.com/emoji35.png)
Post by: Something Fishy on August 29, 2018, 12:08:33 PM
(https://emoji.tapatalk-cdn.com/emoji35.png)
We'd be happy to sell you a spot without a raffle ;D
Post by: whYME on August 29, 2018, 12:09:43 PM
We'd be happy to sell you a spot without a raffle ;D(https://emoji.tapatalk-cdn.com/emoji35.png)
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 29, 2018, 12:14:24 PM
They said the minimum will be anything that is profitable.Is there a max?
Post by: Dan on August 29, 2018, 12:15:05 PM
Is there a max?Not my raffle, I'd suggest emailing them.
If they give me updates to post I will.
Post by: lubaby on August 29, 2018, 12:31:23 PM
Post by: Dan on August 29, 2018, 12:40:11 PM
Chai Elul is the new Pesach Sheini :)LOL
Post by: shaulyaakov on August 29, 2018, 01:13:38 PM
Personally, I'm somewhat surprised that the first raffle did so well, as for many people, there are so many logistics of the trip that make it hard for them beyond the cost (people who follow different poskim regarding Shabbos and the fast times, people who can't go away for 2 weeks, people who can't be virtually unreachable for that long, people who have health-concerns with sailing through the Drake etc).
Post by: lubaby on August 29, 2018, 01:18:36 PM
Personally, I'm somewhat surprised that the first raffle did so well, as for many people, there are so many logistics of the trip that make it hard for them beyond the cost (people who follow different poskim regarding Shabbos and the fast times, people who can't go away for 2 weeks, people who can't be virtually unreachable for that long, people who have health-concerns with sailing through the Drake etc).You're over-complicating things. If I do win, I'll figure out logistics to make it work. If I can't make it work, then for $118 cost, I could just take the $5k cash prize and sell the cruise tickets to highest bidder.
Or for this time around, $79 cost for $3.5k cash and 1 ticket to sell.
Plus the Tzedaka / donation aspect if I don't win.
Post by: shmaya on August 29, 2018, 02:35:01 PM
Chai Elul is the new Pesach Sheini :)
Pesach sheini in YOEC was always a major farbrengen and became my favorite yomtov.
Post by: shmaya on August 29, 2018, 02:37:52 PM
Thats more like it! What’s the min?
Thank you all for your support!
There is a long ways to go, but we are confident that the minimum will be reached.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 29, 2018, 02:39:08 PM
Thank you all for your support!Will there be a maximum?
There is a long ways to go, but we are confident that the minimum will be reached.
Post by: EJB on August 29, 2018, 03:41:35 PM
They said the minimum will be anything that is profitable.Roughly how many tickets /$ of tickets does that equate to?
Post by: Dan on August 29, 2018, 03:42:35 PM
Roughly how many tickets /$ of tickets does that equate to?I'd suggest directing questions to @shmaya
Post by: shmaya on August 29, 2018, 04:09:32 PM
Roughly how many tickets /$ of tickets does that equate to?
275 tickets.
Post by: LoLo on August 29, 2018, 04:15:52 PM
Will there be a maximum?+1
Post by: shmaya on August 29, 2018, 04:17:31 PM
Will there be a maximum?
Technically 2,000.
So far 48 sold, the previous raffle sold 1,139.
We don't expect to hit that number so it's cheaper and the odds are better.
Post by: yesitsme on August 29, 2018, 04:33:41 PM
Technically 2,000.They also didn't expect so the odds were great there too
So far 48 sold, the previous raffle sold 1,139.
We don't expect to hit that number so it's cheaper and the odds are better.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 29, 2018, 04:53:30 PM
Technically 2,000.Thanks.
Post by: shmaya on August 29, 2018, 04:58:16 PM
They also didn't expect so the odds were great there too
Could be, but they sold tickets for over 2 weeks and were first.
This one is 2nd and due to the dynamics of the cruise, for less than a week.
Post by: Shimeyw on August 29, 2018, 07:45:18 PM
Post by: Yaalili on August 29, 2018, 08:21:51 PM
What would be the best way to get more info on this?
https://www.dansdeals.com/advertisement/2nd-chances-exist-win-cruise-aboard-journey-lifetime-antarctica-3500-cash-sea-kayaking-package/
Post by: shmaya on August 29, 2018, 09:07:10 PM
I see there is a large group of people who are interested in the raffle, but are concerned about the odds based on the previous time.
If we would lower the Maximum amount of tickets to be sold to 800, is there a commitment to buy?
Post by: shmaya on August 29, 2018, 09:59:39 PM
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 29, 2018, 10:47:27 PM
@EJB @ChaimMoskowitz @yesitsme @LoLo ,I would just do what you feel is right. Don't try and tailor it for the few of us.
I see there is a large group of people who are interested in the raffle, but are concerned about the odds based on the previous time.
If we would lower the Maximum amount of tickets to be sold to 800, is there a commitment to buy?
If you can just post the numbers right before the raffle is going to close. Depending on those numbers more might buy tickets including me.
Post by: Deal Guy on August 29, 2018, 10:55:57 PM
That will raise people's odds.
Post by: Something Fishy on August 29, 2018, 11:01:09 PM
Is there a way to do it, that if x $ amount is sold it will automatically trigger a 2nd place cash prize, which can expand to a whole other spot?
That will raise people's odds.
Second spot in a Triple won't help a couple, they can't book that without paying the single supplement. At that price they could just get a Superior.
Post by: Deal Guy on August 29, 2018, 11:06:28 PM
Second spot in a Triple won't help a couple, they can't book that without paying the single supplement. At that price they could just get a Superior.I didn't mean that. I meant, that their should be a 2nd place cash prize for a "different" winner, with the ability to raise the prize up to another triple birth or even a whole superior package if money pours in.
Post by: Something Fishy on August 29, 2018, 11:07:26 PM
I didn't mean that. I meant, that their should be a 2nd place cash prize for a "different" winner, with the ability to raise the prize up to another triple birth or even a whole superior package if money pours in.
Got it.
Post by: 159dallas on August 30, 2018, 09:26:07 AM
Post by: as2 on August 30, 2018, 09:34:07 AM
So is this happening?The raffle? Yes.
https://www.dansdeals.com/adve...500-cash-sea-kayaking-package/
Post by: yesitsme on August 30, 2018, 09:39:44 AM
The raffle? Yes.Ooops... Error 404
https://www.dansdeals.com/adve...500-cash-sea-kayaking-package/
Sorry! The page you are looking for does not exist.
You can go to the HOMEPAGE
Post by: as2 on August 30, 2018, 09:43:40 AM
Ooops... Error 404https://www.dansdeals.com/advertisement/2nd-chances-exist-win-cruise-aboard-journey-lifetime-antarctica-3500-cash-sea-kayaking-package/
Sorry! The page you are looking for does not exist.
You can go to the HOMEPAGE
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 30, 2018, 09:47:43 AM
Ooops... Error 404https://www.jewishnortheast.com/templates/articlecco_cdo/aid/4119602/jewish/2nd-chances-exist-Antarctica-cruise.htm
Sorry! The page you are looking for does not exist.
You can go to the HOMEPAGE
Post by: whYME on August 30, 2018, 11:50:40 AM
If you can just post the numbers right before the raffle is going to close. Depending on those numbers more might buy tickets including me.Of course once all the people buying at the last minute for the high odds buy tickets the odds will go down a lot...
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 30, 2018, 11:54:24 AM
Of course once all the people buying at the last minute for the high odds buy tickets the odds will go down a lot...Risk I am willing to take just like the first raffle.
Post by: Deal Guy on August 30, 2018, 11:54:57 AM
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=95355.msg1980628#msg1980628
If they want to accommodate.
Post by: EJB on August 30, 2018, 12:50:46 PM
Hence..Imo split 50% of excess w the charity so they also benefit from more participants.
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=95355.msg1980628#msg1980628
If they want to accommodate.
Post by: EJB on August 30, 2018, 12:56:39 PM
Post by: Dan on August 30, 2018, 01:03:18 PM
How many tickets ???133 as of an hour ago.
Post by: EJB on August 30, 2018, 02:39:36 PM
133 as of an hour ago.Nice!
Post by: shmaya on August 30, 2018, 03:15:32 PM
Hence..It would be interesting to do something like that, would you be willing to help out with structuring it in a way that makes sense without confusing people?
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=95355.msg1980628#msg1980628
If they want to accommodate.
PM if you are interested.
Post by: Deal Guy on August 30, 2018, 10:59:10 PM
So there will be 2 winners.
Maybe, the 2nd place winner will be even bigger then the first place winner. :D
Post by: Something Fishy on August 30, 2018, 11:01:18 PM
Post by: shmaya on August 30, 2018, 11:24:50 PM
Determine how much profit you are willing to accept, and then anything above that plus the cost of the prize will go into a 2nd place raffle.
So there will be 2 winners.
Maybe, the 2nd place winner will be even bigger then the first place winner. :D
Me and dan spoke about doing something, its challenging to do it in a way that doesn't just confuse people.
Not everyone is a DDF pro:)
Post by: Deal Guy on August 30, 2018, 11:39:00 PM
Me and dan spoke about doing something, its challenging to do it in a way that doesn't just confuse people.
Not everyone is a DDF pro:)
Is it difficult to write that any money collected in excess of $30,000 or whatever, will be raffled off as a 2nd place prize?
It doesn't need much to be written about, just a line added on Dansdeals, the next time Dan posts about it.
Most "Not everyone is a DDF pro" people wont even notice that it was added, but those who look and read every line as well as all the ddf people who care about odds will see it.
Post by: davidrotts63 on August 30, 2018, 11:45:02 PM
Post by: Dan on August 30, 2018, 11:47:42 PM
Post by: davidrotts63 on August 30, 2018, 11:54:22 PM
Zrizin makdimin. Others asked after.Aha. Just noticed this thread, so the post where you said you had an inbox overload was presumably after this.
Post by: Something Fishy on August 31, 2018, 12:05:47 AM
Is it difficult to write that any money collected in excess of $30,000 or whatever, will be raffled off as a 2nd place prize?
It doesn't need much to be written about, just a line added on Dansdeals, the next time Dan posts about it.
Most "Not everyone is a DDF pro" people wont even notice that it was added, but those who look and read every line as well as all the ddf people who care about odds will see it.
Dude, it's his raffle. Let him run it however he pleases. If you have a better idea, feel free to buy as many berths as you like and raffle them off yourself.
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 12:53:42 AM
1. Cap sales at 750 tickets
2. If 1,000 tickets are sold, it triggers an increase in prize to a superior cabin for 2.
Which is more appealing to you?
Post by: davidrotts63 on August 31, 2018, 12:54:20 AM
Here are 2 routes that we can go, with the plan to make it official sunday:1
1. Cap sales at 750 tickets
2. If 1,000 tickets are sold, it triggers an increase in prize to a superior cabin for 2.
Which is more appealing to you?
Post by: meme on August 31, 2018, 01:11:44 AM
1If you favor better odds then option 1 will probably encourage more people to buy and end up actually decreasing your odds. While with option 2 it will quite possibly never even get to 750.
Post by: Deal Guy on August 31, 2018, 01:21:37 AM
I dont think you will hit 1000 in a week.
You could cap it at 750, but allow any extra money that comes in to allow a 2nd prize for that extra money?
So if you you sell 850, while you are adding another 100 entrees, at the same time a 2nd person will win $7000 or $8000.
So true, there are now an additional 100 entrees, but at the same time, your odds of winning any prize nearly doubled from 1-750 to 2-850.
Post by: @Yehuda on August 31, 2018, 07:57:41 AM
Here are 2 routes that we can go, with the plan to make it official sunday:2.
1. Cap sales at 750 tickets
2. If 1,000 tickets are sold, it triggers an increase in prize to a superior cabin for 2.
Which is more appealing to you?
I haven't bought yet but would if it was for 2 beds.
Post by: Yaalili on August 31, 2018, 08:53:01 AM
Dude, it's his raffle. Let him run it however he pleases. If you have a better idea, feel free to buy as many berths as you like and raffle them off yourself.
Thank you for saying what most of us are silently thinking. This is a tzedaka we are talking about, not buying shares or an investment. Any and all profits should go to the tzedaka that is arranging the raffle IMO.
Post by: EJB on August 31, 2018, 09:04:32 AM
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 09:05:35 AM
Dan can you please close this thread so my odds stay goodLOL
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 09:08:05 AM
Thank you for saying what most of us are silently thinking. This is a tzedaka we are talking about, not buying shares or an investment. Any and all profits should go to the tzedaka that is arranging the raffle IMO.Many of us don't look at it this way. If you want to give to the charity just give. We look at it as a raffle first.
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 09:17:56 AM
Many of us don't look at it this way. If you want to give to the charity just give. We look at it as a raffle first.
My personal experience is a bit in between.
When I buy raffle ticket/Chinese auction for a tzedaka, the reason I am willing to risk is because even if someone else wins, my money still went to tzedaka.
It seems to me that is why there was a challenge to put together a raffle that is not for tzedaka.
Post by: Mount Scopus on August 31, 2018, 09:19:33 AM
I appreciate the uniqueness of this trip makes the raffle all the more compelling for folks to enter, thus the more people that enter, decreases your odds of winning. However, let’s not forget that first and foremost we are donating money to charity. In exchange for a nominal donation, the charity has decided they are going to give away a spot on this once-in-a-lifetime cruise – regardless of how much money is raised. If they raise more than they anticipated, great!
I cannot say how much it upsets me seeing people so hurt by the fact that a tzedakah is making more money than they hoped (see comments on previous raffle thread). So what if a tzedakah raised $100,000+ and only gave a prize worth ~$30,000? So what if your odds are diminished because more people donated money to charity?
I too, purchased a ticket in both raffles and while I was upset I didn’t win round one, and am hoping to win round two, I am pleased that through Dan and co. we were collectively able to raise so much money for tzedakah. Kudos.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 09:24:02 AM
My personal experience is a bit in between.I agree. I would say in the case the raffle (chance of winning) was the major push for it.
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 09:26:39 AM
Just adding my two cents here...
I appreciate the uniqueness of this trip makes the raffle all the more compelling for folks to enter, thus the more people that enter, decreases your odds of winning. However, let’s not forget that first and foremost we are donating money to charity. In exchange for a nominal donation, the charity has decided they are going to give away a spot on this once-in-a-lifetime cruise – regardless of how much money is raised. If they raise more than they anticipated, great!
I cannot say how much it upsets me seeing people so hurt by the fact that a tzedakah is making more money than they hoped (see comments on previous raffle thread). So what if a tzedakah raised $100,000+ and only gave a prize worth ~$30,000? So what if your odds are diminished because more people donated money to charity?
I too, purchased a ticket in both raffles and while I was upset I didn’t win round one, and am hoping to win round two, I am pleased that through Dan and co. we were collectively able to raise so much money for tzedakah. Kudos.
Thank you for supporting our Chabad house!
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 09:28:04 AM
Just adding my two cents here...Don't think it is fair to say anyone is upset that a charity is getting a benefit from it. Remember this all started (raffle) to give those a chance who can't afford the trip a shot at it. That should be the main driving force behind it.
I appreciate the uniqueness of this trip makes the raffle all the more compelling for folks to enter, thus the more people that enter, decreases your odds of winning. However, let’s not forget that first and foremost we are donating money to charity. In exchange for a nominal donation, the charity has decided they are going to give away a spot on this once-in-a-lifetime cruise – regardless of how much money is raised. If they raise more than they anticipated, great!
I cannot say how much it upsets me seeing people so hurt by the fact that a tzedakah is making more money than they hoped (see comments on previous raffle thread). So what if a tzedakah raised $100,000+ and only gave a prize worth ~$30,000? So what if your odds are diminished because more people donated money to charity?
I too, purchased a ticket in both raffles and while I was upset I didn’t win round one, and am hoping to win round two, I am pleased that through Dan and co. we were collectively able to raise so much money for tzedakah. Kudos.
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 09:29:28 AM
Here is a short video we just made.
https://vimeo.com/287127081
Post by: Ephraimh on August 31, 2018, 09:35:08 AM
Many of us don't look at it this way. If you want to give to the charity just give. We look at it as a raffle first.It’s a down the line 50-50 in my case, and probably in lots of others who bought.
I would never have bought my raffle were it not for a charity and would never have given to this particular charity were it not for this raffle.
I’m not planning on going even if I win and if I win I’ll probably sell it for somebody who really wants to go but can’t afford it, at a fraction of the price.
Post by: Mount Scopus on August 31, 2018, 09:36:28 AM
Don't think it is fair to say anyone is upset that a charity is getting a benefit from it. Remember this all started (raffle) to give those a chance who can't afford the trip a shot at it. That should be the main driving force behind it.
Of course the prize is the incentive for people to donate to charity, but the reason for the raffle is to raise money for charity.
Post by: Mount Scopus on August 31, 2018, 09:37:22 AM
I would never have bought my raffle were it not for a charity and would never have given to this particular charity were it not for this raffle.
Agree 100%
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 09:42:21 AM
Of course the prize is the incentive for people to donate to charity, but the reason for the raffle is to raise money for charity.My point is the drive for the original raffle idea was not to raise money for the charity, that is a side benefit.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 09:45:21 AM
@ChaimMoskowitz, you inspired me to share about where the tzedaka is going.I believe in backing up what I say. I will donate $79 to your Chabad. Please send me the info on how to send it. I ask only one thing in return. Not to be bombarded with further requests.
Here is a short video we just made.
https://vimeo.com/287127081
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 09:47:55 AM
Dan can you please close this thread so my odds stay good
LOL.
Right now we are at 96 purchases of a total 199 tickets, still below the minimum.
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 09:51:29 AM
I believe in backing up what I say. I will donate $79 to your Chabad. Please send me the info on how to send it. I ask only one thing in return. Not to be bombarded with further requests.
Yasher Koach!
JewishNortheast.com/donate
make sure not to enroll in the emails.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 09:58:29 AM
Yasher Koach!Done!!!
JewishNortheast.com/donate
make sure not to enroll in the emails.
Thank you,
Chabad of Northeast Portland
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 10:06:28 AM
Done!!!
Thank you,
Chabad of Northeast Portland
I see your a zrizin makdimin kind of guy :D
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 10:09:07 AM
I see your a zrizin makdimin kind of guy :DI hope that is good. :-[
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 10:17:01 AM
What did they do to deserve this after all other offers were turned down?
Zrizin makdimin. Others asked after.
"Zrizin Makdimin Lemitzvos", when you are doing a good thing do it right away.
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 02:42:20 PM
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 03:35:57 PM
At 237.You need at least 275 to be sold?
Post by: Yaalili on August 31, 2018, 03:41:18 PM
Post by: Dan on August 31, 2018, 03:55:06 PM
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 03:57:02 PM
You need at least 275 to be sold?Because the average ticket price is less than I thought (people buying multiples at lower price point) It will need to be closer to 320.
We officially capped it at 800 max.
Post by: EJB on August 31, 2018, 03:57:33 PM
Because the average ticket price is less than I thought (people buying multiples at lower price point) It will need to be closer to 320.What’s the largest purchase so far?
We officially capped it at 800 max.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 04:00:49 PM
Because the average ticket price is less than I thought (people buying multiples at lower price point) It will need to be closer to 320.OK will check back Tue. :)
We officially capped it at 800 max.
Post by: EJB on August 31, 2018, 04:01:32 PM
OK will check back Tue. :)Would be funny if the raffle closes out by the.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 04:03:21 PM
Would be funny if the raffle closes out by the.That is fine. With that many tickets sold I would not buy anyway.
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 04:03:33 PM
What’s the largest purchase so far?
About 10 people bought 8 tickets at $360.
At that price its $45 per ticket.
Post by: EJB on August 31, 2018, 04:05:17 PM
About 10 people bought 8 tickets at $360.Waiting for the person to drop 1000+ on tickets
At that price its $45 per ticket.
Post by: EJB on August 31, 2018, 04:05:44 PM
That is fine. With that many tickets sold I would not buy anyway.But it’s for a good cause!
Post by: Dan on August 31, 2018, 04:07:17 PM
Waiting for the person to drop 1000+ on ticketsGo for it.
Post by: EJB on August 31, 2018, 04:11:59 PM
Go for it.I already got mine.
I’d consider a major purchase if I’d get a guarantee of no more purchases, but at a cap of 800, i could end up w poor odds even at the top package.
Too late now though
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 04:14:41 PM
Waiting for the person to drop 1000+ on tickets
So am I ;D
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 04:34:11 PM
But it’s for a good cause!Then just donate to the cause.
JewishNortheast.com/donate
Post by: EJB on August 31, 2018, 04:34:50 PM
Then just donate to the cause.That’s essentially what I’m doing, Bc I won’t win the raffle. I just won’t get a tax letter for it
JewishNortheast.com/donate
Post by: Ephraimh on August 31, 2018, 04:53:24 PM
Then just donate to the cause.Interesting how your virtue of refusing a reward or a chance of a reward for donating/spending, doesn’t transfer over to say cash back on cc spend 🧐
JewishNortheast.com/donate
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 04:55:49 PM
Interesting how your virtue of refusing a reward or a chance of a reward for donating/spending, doesn’t transfer over to say cash back on cc spend 🧐Am not following what you mean.
Post by: Something Fishy on August 31, 2018, 04:56:12 PM
I’m not planning on going even if I win
See, now you're getting personal >:(.
Post by: EJB on August 31, 2018, 05:20:12 PM
See, now you're getting personal >:(.I’m also not so sure I can make it if I’ll win. I’d love to and will try to make it work, but it’s tough to take off that much without bringing family.
Post by: Dr Moose on August 31, 2018, 05:20:20 PM
Post by: Ephraimh on August 31, 2018, 05:20:24 PM
See, now you're getting personal >:(.Haha! Ok, I might still rethink it if you make this trip more personal and attractive to me.. is the place in Canada the ship originates in, by chance Toronto? 🤩
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 05:23:21 PM
I’m also not so sure I can make it if I’ll win. I’d love to and will try to make it work, but it’s tough to take off that much without bringing family.I can go if you can't get rid of the ticket. Don't mind taking one for the team.
Post by: EJB on August 31, 2018, 05:24:32 PM
I can go if you can't get rid of the ticket. Don't mind taking one for the team.That’ll be contingent on you making a statement (chosen by me) about mj and lbj on the record
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on August 31, 2018, 05:25:51 PM
That’ll be contingent on you making a statement (chosen by me) about mj and lbj on the recordI said I would take one for the team. Not cut my throat. >:(
Post by: Something Fishy on August 31, 2018, 05:56:31 PM
Haha! Ok, I might still rethink it if you make this trip more personal and attractive to me.. is the place in Canada the ship originates in, by chance Toronto? 🤩
;D ;D ;D
Post by: shmaya on August 31, 2018, 06:51:01 PM
Good Shabbos to the east coasters.
Post by: shmaya on September 02, 2018, 03:00:06 AM
Now the only space still available is at jewishnortheast.com/antarcticacruise.... ;)
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 02, 2018, 09:31:55 AM
If you were on the fence about going on the cruise, you waited too long.:)
Now the only space still available is at jewishnortheast.com/antarcticacruise.... ;)
Post by: EJB on September 02, 2018, 09:40:22 AM
If you were on the fence about going on the cruise, you waited too long.
Now the only space still available is at jewishnortheast.com/antarcticacruise.... ;)
Is that true? Bc the ship's site is still selling spots - so is this a dan/sf limitation or an operator one?
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 02, 2018, 09:42:01 AM
Is that true? Bc the ship's site is still selling spots - so is this a dan/sf limitation or an operator one?Are they selling Kosher spots?
Post by: EJB on September 02, 2018, 09:42:54 AM
Are they selling Kosher spots?No - that’s basically my question. Is the limitation a boat limitation or kosher one?
Post by: Dan on September 02, 2018, 09:43:03 AM
Is that true? Bc the ship's site is still selling spots - so is this a dan/sf limitation or an operator one?It was the ship's deadline based on kosher logistics.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 02, 2018, 09:46:58 AM
It was the ship's deadline based on kosher logistics.Deadlines are meant to be broken especially if the ship is not sold out. :)
Post by: EJB on September 02, 2018, 09:52:30 AM
Deadlines are meant to be broken especially if the ship is not sold out. :)
That’ll be raffle #3
Post by: Dan on September 02, 2018, 09:54:57 AM
Deadlines are meant to be broken especially if the ship is not sold out. :)I'm always happy to try to push something through, but no guarantees at this point.
Post by: Deal Guy on September 02, 2018, 11:10:45 AM
Would you be able to run another raffle after the 4th for any remaining 2 person room or suite, or even single birth through my shul?
Shul needs a big boost to get indoor renovations going to make it usable.
Thanks
Post by: EJB on September 02, 2018, 11:21:06 AM
My understanding is that after August 31, they still sell if available but you must pay in full at time of booking.Why don’t we just have a raffle for every shul ...
Would you be able to run another raffle after the 4th for any remaining 2 person room or suite, or even single birth through my shul?
Shul needs a big boost to get indoor renovations going to make it usable.
Thanks
My shul needs a new Torah
Post by: Dan on September 02, 2018, 11:26:00 AM
My understanding is that after August 31, they still sell if available but you must pay in full at time of booking.The kosher food deadline is this week, so while you might still be able to get a spot based on asking for an exception, there would be no way to hold a cabin as the first 2 raffles did.
Would you be able to run another raffle after the 4th for any remaining 2 person room or suite, or even single birth through my shul?
Shul needs a big boost to get indoor renovations going to make it usable.
Thanks
You would have to buy tickets and hope you make a profit.
Post by: chucksterace on September 02, 2018, 06:15:40 PM
Post by: shmaya on September 02, 2018, 06:24:46 PM
When is the raffle going to be? @shmaya
This Tuesday at 3pm EST
Jewishnortheast.com/Antarcticacruise
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 02, 2018, 06:25:58 PM
This Tuesday at 3pm ESTCan I get a ticket count at 2:57pm EST? :)
Jewishnortheast.com/Antarcticacruise
Post by: shmaya on September 02, 2018, 06:39:35 PM
Can I get a ticket count at 2:57pm EST? :)
Here is the current count:
https://www.dansdeals.com/advertisement/enter-win-final-spot-journey-lifetime-antarctica-plus-win-3500-cash-kayaking-package/
Post by: EJB on September 02, 2018, 07:28:32 PM
Can I get a ticket count at 2:57pm EST? :)I’m buying 100 at 2:59
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 02, 2018, 07:38:59 PM
I’m buying 100 at 2:59Good luck once I hit the site with DoS attack. :P
Post by: EJB on September 02, 2018, 07:40:08 PM
Good luck once I hit the site with DoS attack. :PIt’s a chabad raffle - they always run late. So make sure to ddos for a good hour
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 02, 2018, 07:41:10 PM
It’s a chabad raffle - they always run late. So make sure to ddos for a good hourJust a little taste. :P
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=95441.0
Post by: EJB on September 02, 2018, 07:41:52 PM
Just a little taste. :PAh so you’re the guy advertising succahs???
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=95441.0
Post by: EJB on September 02, 2018, 07:42:36 PM
Post by: shmaya on September 02, 2018, 08:50:03 PM
You should just use my cc info and your name if you have it already
Would be happy to, could you PM directly with your name?
Post by: shmaya on September 02, 2018, 09:28:05 PM
Post by: shmaya on September 03, 2018, 12:39:25 AM
Tickets are from all over the map, including London and Israel.
Crown Heights and Lakewood are the most supportive of our Chabad House :D
Interestingly, there is a pretty consistent average ticket price that moves slightly but stayed within $1 each time I ran an average.
Post by: MosheD on September 03, 2018, 05:57:15 AM
I see this hitting >500 with all the last minute buys.
Thanks @shmaya and hatzlacha
Post by: shmaya on September 03, 2018, 02:38:02 PM
Caved and bought a ticket.
I see this hitting >500 with all the last minute buys.
Thanks @shmaya and hatzlacha
Amen
Post by: shmaya on September 03, 2018, 02:40:11 PM
Should we have:
1. Detailed breakdown of tickets bought so far
2. Comparison analysis of 1st vs 2nd raffle, but not as detailed.
Comment in the next half hour
Post by: Z56 on September 03, 2018, 02:51:00 PM
Writing up today's post.
Should we have:
1. Detailed breakdown of tickets bought so far
2. Comparison analysis of 1st vs 2nd raffle, but not as detailed.
Comment in the next half hour
1
Post by: Deal Guy on September 03, 2018, 02:53:02 PM
Writing up today's post.
Should we have:
1. Detailed breakdown of tickets bought so far
2. Comparison analysis of 1st vs 2nd raffle, but not as detailed.
Comment in the next half hour
2 is not necessary, as you don't need to compare to that raffle. Yours is a smaller raffle, cheaper tickets but lesser prize. And you are doing it in a much shorter period.
#Hatzlocha
Post by: shmaya on September 03, 2018, 04:06:54 PM
The first raffle had 292 tickets sold 5 days after it opened up sales.
Using that as the comparison, the 2nd raffle had outsold at 323 yesterday.
If you compare based on the time left to the raffle, the 1st Raffle had approximately 700 tickets sold 24 hours before the raffle ended, the 2nd raffle is at 370.
Post by: Yehudaa on September 03, 2018, 04:54:31 PM
Running the numbers is an interesting lesson in how complex comparisons are.
The first raffle had 292 tickets sold 5 days after it opened up sales.
Using that as the comparison, the 2nd raffle had outsold at 323 yesterday.
If you compare based on the time left to the raffle, the 1st Raffle had approximately 700 tickets sold 24 hours before the raffle ended, the 2nd raffle is at 370.
Correct. The comparitavely low 5-days-in sales of the first raffle might be because at 5 days in there was still tons of time left, whereas in the second raffle, by 5 days the deadline is already nearing; and the comparitavely high 24-hours-left numbers in the first raffle might be because the raffle has been open for so long by that point, whereas in the second raffle it's only been open 5 days at the 24-hour-left point.
It might be more accurate to compare the # of tickets sold at each % of the time that the raffle was selling tickets. (Idk the exact length of each, but if the first raffle was 3 weeks long and the second was 1 week long, one can compare the # of tickets sold at 72 hours left in the 1st raffle with the # at 24 hours left in this one.)
Disclaimer: I have no background in statistics or anything of the like, so feel free to disprove me :)
Post by: EJB on September 03, 2018, 05:16:48 PM
Post by: EJB on September 03, 2018, 05:21:33 PM
No statistical basis to your suggestion
Correct. The comparitavely low 5-days-in sales of the first raffle might be because at 5 days in there was still tons of time left, whereas in the second raffle, by 5 days the deadline is already nearing; and the comparitavely high 24-hours-left numbers in the first raffle might be because the raffle has been open for so long by that point, whereas in the second raffle it's only been open 5 days at the 24-hour-left point.
It might be more accurate to compare the # of tickets sold at each % of the time that the raffle was selling tickets. (Idk the exact length of each, but if the first raffle was 3 weeks long and the second was 1 week long, one can compare the # of tickets sold at 72 hours left in the 1st raffle with the # at 24 hours left in this one.)
Disclaimer: I have no background in statistics or anything of the like, so feel free to disprove me :)
Post by: EJB on September 03, 2018, 05:43:07 PM
Since you have less then 24 hours left, you mind want to get todays post up and running so you can maximize more sales.He beat you to it.
When do sales end? When’s the drAwing?
Post by: shmaya on September 03, 2018, 06:07:51 PM
He beat you to it.We will close sales tomorrow 3pm est, the drawing will be shortly after that
When do sales end? When’s the drAwing?
Post by: EJB on September 03, 2018, 06:08:27 PM
We will close sales tomorrow 3pm est, the drawing will be shortly after thatWow, dan needed almost a day after sales ended to get the drawing in order
Post by: shmaya on September 03, 2018, 06:17:47 PM
Wow, dan needed almost a day after sales ended to get the drawing in order
That's why we have @Dan.
He does all the work on figuring out how to get good deals, then we just need to follow instructions :)
Post by: EJB on September 03, 2018, 06:19:10 PM
Post by: Dan on September 03, 2018, 07:01:07 PM
Can you draw two tickets: the winner and the “sucks to be you” second place?I do still have the raffle bucket here.
Should we livestream the loser?
Post by: as2 on September 03, 2018, 07:02:04 PM
I do still have the raffle bucket here.I'm in
Should we livestream the loser?
Post by: EJB on September 03, 2018, 07:02:42 PM
I'm in
Me too. And I say you should ship them a UA 747 amenity kit or two.
Post by: as2 on September 03, 2018, 07:09:32 PM
Me too. And I say you should ship them a UA 747 amenity kit or two.Throw some scotch and an Amazon gift card in too while you're at it
Post by: Something Fishy on September 03, 2018, 07:12:27 PM
Me too. And I say you should ship them a UA 747 amenity kit or two.
And a stuffed penguin.
Post by: as2 on September 03, 2018, 07:17:23 PM
And a stuffed penguin.Woooah, that wasn't the terms the first time around.
Post by: Something Fishy on September 03, 2018, 07:20:21 PM
Woooah, that wasn't the terms the first time around.
Now that registration is closed I can play your emotions with impunity.
Post by: as2 on September 03, 2018, 07:23:43 PM
Now that registration is closed I can play with emotions with impunity.So it WAS Marriott running this all along.
Post by: Dan on September 03, 2018, 07:26:38 PM
So it WAS Marriott running this all along.Nah, if it was Marriott then Levi B would be in a shared triple room after category conversion. And breakfast would be excluded due to an asterisk.
Post by: Something Fishy on September 03, 2018, 07:31:45 PM
Nah, if it was Marriott then Levi B would be in a shared triple room after category conversion. And breakfast would be excluded due to an asterisk.
We're including breakfast :o?
Post by: @Yehuda on September 03, 2018, 07:42:42 PM
I do still have the raffle bucket here.But you have to keep picking until you get a DDFer.
Should we livestream the loser?
Post by: EJB on September 03, 2018, 07:45:23 PM
But you have to keep picking until you get a DDFer.
Technically, Levi B is a DDFer...
Post by: Yehuda57 on September 03, 2018, 08:56:17 PM
And a stuffed penguin.Are you killing and stuffing the penguin yourself?
Post by: Something Fishy on September 03, 2018, 09:15:22 PM
Are you killing and stuffing the penguin yourself?
Heck no, that's what the kitchen staff is for.
Post by: Yehuda57 on September 03, 2018, 09:17:02 PM
Heck no, that's what the kitchen staff is for.How will the kitchen staff know the difference between the chassidim and the penguins?
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 03, 2018, 09:27:00 PM
Heck no, that's what the kitchen staff is for.First chickens now this. >:(
Post by: Something Fishy on September 03, 2018, 09:58:05 PM
How will the kitchen staff know the difference between the chassidim and the penguins?
That's exactly why we all get bright red parkas to wear, and why we stay on the boat for Shabbos.
Post by: mmgfarb on September 03, 2018, 11:19:47 PM
So it WAS Marriott running this all along.
Nah, if it was Marriott then Levi B would be in a shared triple room after category conversion. And breakfast would be excluded due to an asterisk.Alol
Post by: shmaya on September 04, 2018, 12:13:06 AM
Post by: Yehuda57 on September 04, 2018, 12:47:42 AM
409
End it now and keep it clean. That's the solution.
Post by: shmaya on September 04, 2018, 01:59:36 AM
End it now and keep it clean. That's the solution.
Here in Portland we are all about keeping it weird. Sorry ;D
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 06:45:34 AM
409Before or after CMs purchase?
And the 100 ticket package is officially not profitable anymore
Post by: Something Fishy on September 04, 2018, 08:45:53 AM
Quote
Afaf: how much $ do i havta donate to kupat hair to ensure I win tonights Antarctica raffle?
Post by: Dawie on September 04, 2018, 10:08:01 AM
From Whatsapp:Kupat Ha'ir? i'd have thought Kupat Fishy would be enough
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 10:36:08 AM
Post by: shmaya on September 04, 2018, 12:07:08 PM
457 with or without cm?
I give up.
Who is cm?
Post by: 12HRS on September 04, 2018, 12:14:31 PM
I give up.
Who is cm?
The shabbos goy
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 12:19:03 PM
I give up.Some idiot who causes trouble. Good thing you don't know who he is.
Who is cm?
Post by: shmaya on September 04, 2018, 12:23:16 PM
Some idiot who causes trouble. Good thing you don't know who he is.
Rabbis and lawyers retain client privilege protection.
You have to ask cm directly.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 12:29:19 PM
You have to ask cm directly.Next time I see him. :)
Post by: jj1000 on September 04, 2018, 01:22:19 PM
Next time I see him. :)(https://i.imgur.com/aupBrDn.jpg)
Post by: whYME on September 04, 2018, 01:32:22 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/aupBrDn.jpg)IDK, I can think of a few other members he might see instead if he looks there...
Post by: Deal Guy on September 04, 2018, 02:00:34 PM
One hour to go.
Post by: shmaya on September 04, 2018, 02:06:22 PM
So what are the odds now? :)
One hour to go.
About 560
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 02:08:43 PM
About 560Before or after cm
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 02:09:38 PM
Before or after cm
Before
Post by: MosheD on September 04, 2018, 02:18:09 PM
From Whatsapp:
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 02:18:23 PM
After as well ;)?
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 02:19:35 PM
After as well ;)?Yup, to expensive for my taste.
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 02:22:07 PM
Yup, to expensive for my taste.
Def not worth it solely as a gamble. You get much better odds in vegas. At 600 + 100 tickets sold (best value) and 15k value from prize (which not all people will realize), $3600 will equate to $2143 in expected value. A loss of almost 50%. And that's before taxes :).
Post by: whYME on September 04, 2018, 02:27:18 PM
$3600 will equate to $2143 in expected value.Can you explain that please for the non-actuaries here?
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 02:31:37 PM
Can you explain that please for the non-actuaries here?100/700 x 15k (I’m assuming 600 tickets purchased aside for you and 100 by you, which gives the best value)
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 02:32:28 PM
Def not worth it solely as a gamble. You get much better odds in vegas. At 600 + 100 tickets sold (best value) and 15k value from prize (which not all people will realize), $3600 will equate to $2143 in expected value. A loss of almost 50%. And that's before taxes :).So you are saying a have a better chance of putting $79 on the pass line and let it ride until I get enough to go? :)
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 02:34:52 PM
100/700 x 15k (I’m assuming 600 tickets purchased aside for you and 100 by you, which gives the best value)Should be x $18,295, no?
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 02:36:16 PM
Should be x $18,295, no?Should be whatever value you get from it. I used a rough number but you can use something else (such as MSRP). In reality many ppl in the raffle will value this closer to 10k. In any case, as a gamble it’s a poor value.
Post by: shimino1 on September 04, 2018, 02:50:04 PM
It turns out my credit card didn't go through so I don't have a ticket :(
I'm not going to have a browser in the next 10 minutes so can I pm someone my CC number and they will book for me?
Thanks!
Post by: whYME on September 04, 2018, 02:51:41 PM
100/700 x 15k (I’m assuming 600 tickets purchased aside for you and 100 by you, which gives the best value)ok, so I understand the math but I'm not sure I'm mekabel the reasoning in this case.
IIUC that's essentially saying if you run this ?? times the average return will be $2143?
Here there's only one shot at it and it's all or nothing. You're not actually expecting a return of $2142. I see it as simply improving your odds of a 15k prize from 1/600 to 1/7.
(Or are you saying in vegas you can get better odds at $15k for $3600?)
ETA: I guess I should've focused more on this part of your post:
Def not worth it solely as a gamble.You're talking about a purely financial "investment" and I'm talking about an Antarctica raffle :)
Post by: yossig on September 04, 2018, 02:58:06 PM
Can anyone do me a favor?If you still haven’t found anyone you can PM me your info and I’ll do it now
It turns out my credit card didn't go through so I don't have a ticket :(
I'm not going to have a browser in the next 10 minutes so can I pm someone my CC number and they will book for me?
Thanks!
Post by: whYME on September 04, 2018, 03:06:19 PM
Writing up today's post.I'm actually really curious about how many direct CC vs Paypal.
Should we have:
1. Detailed breakdown of tickets bought so far
2. Comparison analysis of 1st vs 2nd raffle, but not as detailed.
Comment in the next half hour
Post by: shimino1 on September 04, 2018, 03:11:15 PM
If you still haven’t found anyone you can PM me your info and I’ll do it nowEnded up with two tickets ;D
Thanks!
Post by: rollingstone on September 04, 2018, 03:12:29 PM
Post by: shimino1 on September 04, 2018, 03:12:39 PM
Post by: davidrotts63 on September 04, 2018, 03:14:02 PM
I'm actually really curious about how many direct CC vs Paypal.I'm curious how many people used an amex after last raffle failed them.
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 03:17:04 PM
Still able to buy?As long as the form is up you can still buy.
Post by: shimino1 on September 04, 2018, 03:24:34 PM
Ended up with two tickets ;DMake that three 8)
Thanks!
I just messaged a few people hoping one would come through.
Turns out they all came through. ;D
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 03:25:29 PM
Make that three 8)LOL
I just messaged a few people hoping one would come through.
Turns out they all came through. ;D
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 03:56:48 PM
Post by: lubaby on September 04, 2018, 03:59:19 PM
Can't believe this raffle has me sending my cc info to virtual strangers! FOMO much?Weren’t able to just pull it up on mobile browser?
Post by: rollingstone on September 04, 2018, 04:00:23 PM
Form still looks up. False advertising!+1 drawing was updated to 430pm as well.
Post by: mmgfarb on September 04, 2018, 04:32:29 PM
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 04:32:50 PM
Nu? It's 4:32You think they’re yekke?
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 04:36:40 PM
Post by: Dawie on September 04, 2018, 04:38:48 PM
Post by: mmgfarb on September 04, 2018, 04:39:51 PM
Boruch Zucker is CM's new name?Was that the winner?
Post by: Dawie on September 04, 2018, 04:41:30 PM
Was that the winner?according to the video
he had 635 and 710 so he bought all those tickets? or is it shimino1
lol
Post by: mmgfarb on September 04, 2018, 04:42:37 PM
according to the videoNot shiminono1 but a DDFer.
he had 635 and 710 so he bought all those tickets? or is it shimino1
lol
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 04:42:58 PM
https://www.facebook.com/chaimandmushka.wilhelm/videos/1099835266833904/That was messed up.
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 04:43:25 PM
Not shiminono1 but a DDFer.Who?
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 04:43:35 PM
That was messed up.
Were the tickets bought after 3:00???
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 04:44:44 PM
Post by: yesitsme on September 04, 2018, 04:45:00 PM
I give up.Someone that gives Tzadaka and posts positive about trump when in bad mood, could you imagine what he does when in good mood?
Who is cm?
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 04:45:57 PM
Were the tickets bought after 3:00???Lawsuit?
Post by: Dr Moose on September 04, 2018, 04:49:09 PM
Lawsuit?I'll join the class action
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 04:49:22 PM
Submission Date
9/4/2018 16:47:50 PM
Submission Id
4119602-756xxxx
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 04:49:42 PM
What was the number 4 on the screen in the beginning?The winner he didn't like. :)
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 04:49:48 PM
What was the number 4 on the screen in the beginning?Before the raffle took place.
Baruch bought a last minute package of 120 tickets for $3,600 and had 619-738.
Post by: mmgfarb on September 04, 2018, 04:50:37 PM
Before the raffle took place.Wow.
Baruch bought a last minute package of 120 tickets for $3,600 and had 619-738.
Post by: yesitsme on September 04, 2018, 04:51:45 PM
(For those without access to facebook)
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 04:52:23 PM
Who is the winner?BZ
(For those without access to facebook)
Post by: aro123 on September 04, 2018, 04:53:14 PM
Before the raffle took place.what time did he buy it?
Baruch bought a last minute package of 120 tickets for $3,600 and had 619-738.
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 04:53:37 PM
BZהוא כ.ם. הוא י.ט.ז. הוא כ.ו. ...
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 04:55:43 PM
what time did he buy it?
Likely between 2:06 and 4:36
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 04:58:21 PM
Likely between 2:06 and 4:36The form was down when I checked at 4.
Post by: davidrotts63 on September 04, 2018, 05:00:31 PM
This (https://www.northshore.org/apps/findadoctor/physicians/boruch-zucker) guy?Lol no.
He's a good guy we are happy for ;)
Legend has it he's @rollingstone s brother
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 05:01:43 PM
Congrats Baruch!
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:06:01 PM
$3,600 is definitely go big or go home territory.How was that gamble? @EJB
Congrats Baruch!
Post by: lubaby on September 04, 2018, 05:06:45 PM
$3,600 is definitely go big or go home territory.And now with the win, $3500 cash part of prize covers that quite nicely.
Congrats Baruch!
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 05:11:25 PM
How was that gamble? @EJBPoor gambles can pay off.
Prize would need to have been worth 22k for it to be worth it.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:13:16 PM
Poor gambles can pay off.Poor gamble? When have you had better odds to payoff in a raffle than this? It was almost 50/50 (odds/payoff).
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 05:16:05 PM
Poor gamble? When have you had better odds to payoff in a raffle than this? It was almost 50/50 (odds/payoff).I'm purely talking about it as a gamble, not as a charity raffle. That definitely factors in - there is a benefit to donating money for a good cause. But as a gamble, you'd have better odds in Vegas playing video poker or wheel of fortune. Let alone blackjack or roulette. Especially if you value the prize at less than MSRP.
Post by: farmbochur on September 04, 2018, 05:20:36 PM
I'm purely talking about it as a gamble, not as a charity raffle. That definitely factors in - there is a benefit to donating money for a good cause. But as a gamble, you'd have better odds in Vegas playing video poker or wheel of fortune. Let alone blackjack or roulette. Especially if you value the prize at less than MSRP.This.
That's why I'm philosophically opposed to lotteries, raffles, or any game of chance with negative expected value.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:30:41 PM
I'm purely talking about it as a gamble, not as a charity raffle. That definitely factors in - there is a benefit to donating money for a good cause. But as a gamble, you'd have better odds in Vegas playing video poker or wheel of fortune. Let alone blackjack or roulette. Especially if you value the prize at less than MSRP.You are not looking at it correctly or my math is wrong. His odds were roughly 5-1. He risked 3.6k to win 18k. You don't have better odds at video poker as that requires skill.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:32:11 PM
That's why I'm philosophically opposed to lotteries, raffles, or any game of chance with negative expected value.You need to do the math. What if only 360 were sold and you had 120 of them?
Post by: as2 on September 04, 2018, 05:35:34 PM
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 05:37:11 PM
His odds would have been better had his ticket numbers been more scattered. The odds of the random number generator choosing a specific chunk of numbers (one of the last) is far less than it choosing any number from 0-700Erm, say what?
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:39:31 PM
His odds would have been better had his ticket numbers been more scattered. The odds of the random number generator choosing a specific chunk of numbers (one of the last) is far less than it choosing any number from 0-700Doesn't work that way.
Post by: as2 on September 04, 2018, 05:40:34 PM
Erm, say what?Not sure. Overtired logic made sense when I wrote it out, and rethinking it, I'm not entirely sure what I was thinking. I think I was getting at was, that it choosing your number is less likely when they are all lumped together vs scattered throughout the 700. I'll go take a nap.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:42:34 PM
I'll go take a nap.+100
Post by: Something Fishy on September 04, 2018, 05:43:08 PM
Now you get to fight over which of you comes.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:46:16 PM
Now you get to fight over which of you comes.Raffle #3? :)
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 05:47:43 PM
Raffle #3? :)Live?
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 05:48:52 PM
His odds would have been better had his ticket numbers been more scattered. The odds of the random number generator choosing a specific chunk of numbers (one of the last) is far less than it choosing any number from 0-700
Absolutely wrong
Post by: davidrotts63 on September 04, 2018, 05:49:04 PM
Congrats @rollingstone and @boyozucker for winning the raffle! It's easier to pay for the top level when you're doing it with a partner ;D.I'm pretty sure they decided already to give it to me.
Now you get to fight over which of you comes.
:please catch the sarcasm:
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:51:39 PM
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 05:52:12 PM
Keep the 3.5k. Raffle the other for 100 per ticket with a max 100 tickets. Quick 5k each!LOL
Can keep the $795 too.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:52:23 PM
Absolutely wrongHe already correct it now you need to correct your logic. :P
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:52:44 PM
LOLI am dead serious.
Post by: rollingstone on September 04, 2018, 05:53:39 PM
Raffle #3? :)Sure, we will be selling 10 tickets at $2,500 each.
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 05:54:33 PM
You are not looking at it correctly or my math is wrong. His odds were roughly 5-1. He risked 3.6k to win 18k. You don't have better odds at video poker as that requires skill.
Simple mistake. His winnings would need to have been 18k+3.6k for your math to work. His winnings were only 14.4k when you include the cost.
Post by: davidrotts63 on September 04, 2018, 05:54:39 PM
Keep the 3.5k. Raffle the other for 100 per ticket with a max 100 tickets. Quick 5k each!*40k later*
"I know I should have just bought a room"
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:55:49 PM
Sure, we will be selling 10 tickets at $2,500 each.No one is going to buy at 2.5k, that is greed.
Post by: davidrotts63 on September 04, 2018, 05:55:52 PM
Sure, we will be selling 10 tickets at $2,500 each.Bulk discount on 10?
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 05:57:58 PM
Simple mistake. His winnings would need to have been 18k+3.6k for your math to work. His winnings were only 14.4k when you include the cost.I didn't say his net was 18k. :)
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 06:01:02 PM
I didn't say his net was 18k. :)
So then how is losing ~19% per dollar good odds? And that's assuming a cash equivalent prize. If you value prize same as 15k cash, you're losing 1/3 per dollar.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 06:03:14 PM
So then how is losing ~19% per dollar good odds? And that's assuming a cash equivalent prize. If you value prize same as 15k cash, you're losing 1/3 per dollar.I put 100 in video poker or WOF and walk away with nothing. I would say the raffle is a lot better odds. :P
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 06:04:34 PM
I put 100 in video poker or WOF and walk away with nothing. I would say the raffle is a lot better odds. :P
Then you don't know how odds work. And if you put 100 in a video poker that gave you 0 odds, then there are other things we should talk about :).
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 06:08:18 PM
Then you don't know how odds work. And if you put 100 in a video poker that gave you 0 odds, then there are other things we should talk about :).We already been through this odds thing. Do I need to school you again? :P
I didn't say the odds on VP were 0. What are my odds of multiplying my initial investment 5 fold on VP?
Post by: Deal Guy on September 04, 2018, 06:28:07 PM
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 06:28:59 PM
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 06:45:37 PM
We already been through this odds thing. Do I need to school you again? :P
I didn't say the odds on VP were 0. What are my odds of multiplying my initial investment 5 fold on VP?
I think I need to explain this to you in simple terms since you're having trouble understanding.
Option 1: Raffle
Probability of winning: 120/739 = 16.2% (close to 5:1)
Prize value: $18,295
Expected value of winnings: 16.2% x $18,295 = $2,964
Option 2: Video poker
Payout %: 95% (this is an assumption based on wizardofvegas data. Anything above 82% works)
Wager: $3600
Expected value of winnings: 95% x $3,600 = $3,420
Why wouldn't you want $456 extra in expected earnings?
Post by: real-brisker on September 04, 2018, 06:45:59 PM
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 06:46:44 PM
We already been through this odds thing. Do I need to school you again? :P
I didn't say the odds on VP were 0. What are my odds of multiplying my initial investment 5 fold on VP?
To answer your question, it depends on the machine. There's no one answer. It is easier (and more appropriate in this context) to compare expected winnings.
Post by: Dan on September 04, 2018, 06:52:17 PM
What was the 635 and 710 about?I haven't spoken to him since, but my guess is:
https://www.dansdeals.com/advertisement/four-hours-left-win-cruise-aboard-journey-lifetime-antarctica-raffle-will-livestreamed/#comment-1374236
Post by: Chief Rabbi of New York on September 04, 2018, 06:54:07 PM
What was the 635 and 710 about?
2 people bought the 120 ticket package
So they wanted to win twice
Or maybe the raffle was a set up in order to raise even more funds for the Antarctica lubavitch center ?
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 06:54:53 PM
I think I need to explain this to you in simple terms since you're having trouble understanding.You are missing the point. I need to turn my 3.6k into 18k+. I know what the odds are for the raffle. Now what are the odds playing VP? Do I need to explain this so a 1st grader can understand? :)
Option 1: Raffle
Probability of winning: 120/739 = 16.2% (close to 5:1)
Prize value: $18,295
Expected value of winnings: 16.2% x $18,295 = $2,964
Option 2: Video poker
Payout %: 95% (this is an assumption based on wizardofvegas data. Anything above 82% works)
Wager: $3600
Expected value of winnings: 95% x $3,600 = $3,420
Why wouldn't you want $456 extra in expected earnings?
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 06:57:15 PM
I haven't spoken to him since, but my guess is:When there is a mistake made you redo the draw. AFAIK that is the goy way. :)
https://www.dansdeals.com/advertisement/four-hours-left-win-cruise-aboard-journey-lifetime-antarctica-raffle-will-livestreamed/#comment-1374236
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 07:03:55 PM
You are missing the point. I need to turn my 3.6k into 18k+. I know what the odds are for the raffle. Now what are the odds playing VP? Do I need to explain this so a 1st grader can understand? :)
You made a math error, so you are trying to justify by creating a hypothetical of an irrational investor making poor choices.
The only instance where you're math is right is if the investor had a wacky utility function showing a strong preference for exactly a 5x but little preference for any other return, including a 0-5x or >5x. But on purely an expected value basis (which is what my post referred to), you clearly come ahead on VP. Though I have no idea what the odds are on VP machines that accept such high wagers :)
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 07:20:31 PM
You made a math error, so you are trying to justify by creating a hypothetical of an irrational investor making poor choices.You can bet $1 on VP. What is my odds of turning my 3.6k into 18k+ before I run out of money (lose my 3.6k).
The only instance where you're math is right is if the investor had a wacky utility function showing a strong preference for exactly a 5x but little preference for any other return, including a 0-5x or >5x. But on purely an expected value basis (which is what my post referred to), you clearly come ahead on VP. Though I have no idea what the odds are on VP machines that accept such high wagers :)
Your post I responded to was a "poor gamble". I took that mean as opposed to other gambles. I even asked you this?
So you are saying a have a better chance of putting $79 on the pass line and let it ride until I get enough to go? :)
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 07:26:36 PM
You can bet $1 on VP. What is my odds of turning my 3.6k into 18k+ before I run out of money (lose my 3.6k).
Your post I responded to was a "poor gamble". I took that mean as opposed to other gambles. I even asked you this?
That's a silly question, but it's hard to say for sure without knowing the algorithms inside the VP machine. And regardless, you should be looking at expected payount and not a particular outcome. If you care solely about a particular outcome, compare to a game (e.g., roulette) when you can get exactly that outcome. At better odds (6 number combinations have ~16% payout probability)
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 07:31:08 PM
That's a silly question,You are missing the whole point of a "poor gamble". You need to think in terms of a gambler. I have 3.6k and I want to see some penguins for 18k. Are my chances better to enter the raffle at a 5:1 or play VP until I reach 18k.
Post by: whYME on September 04, 2018, 07:34:04 PM
You are missing the whole point of a "poor gamble". You need to think in terms of a gambler. I have 3.6k and I want to see some penguins for 18k. Are my chances better to enter the raffle at a 5:1 or play VP until I reach 18k.
100/700 x 15k (I’m assuming 600 tickets purchased aside for you and 100 by you, which gives the best value)ok, so I understand the math but I'm not sure I'm mekabel the reasoning in this case.
IIUC that's essentially saying if you run this ?? times the average return will be $2143?
Here there's only one shot at it and it's all or nothing. You're not actually expecting a return of $2142. I see it as simply improving your odds of a 15k prize from 1/600 to 1/7.
(Or are you saying in vegas you can get better odds at $15k for $3600?)
ETA: I guess I should've focused more on this part of your post:Def not worth it solely as a gamble.You're talking about a purely financial "investment" and I'm talking about an Antarctica raffle :)
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 07:57:50 PM
You are missing the whole point of a "poor gamble". You need to think in terms of a gambler. I have 3.6k and I want to see some penguins for 18k. Are my chances better to enter the raffle at a 5:1 or play VP until I reach 18k.
You and I both don't know the specific probability of VP allowing you to reach 18k. But that's irrelevant - If you only care about one particular outcome, play roulette (European would pay out $21,600 at a 16.2% probability based on a $3,600 wager). You'd end up with $3,600 more at the same probability, and just like the raffle it is binary - you win it all or lose it all. Why wouldn't you want an equal chance of $3,600 more???
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 04, 2018, 08:05:04 PM
You and I both don't know the specific probability of VP allowing you to reach 18k. But that's irrelevant - If you only care about one particular outcome, play roulette (European would pay out $21,600 at a 16.2% probability based on a $3,600 wager). You'd end up with $3,600 more at the same probability, and just like the raffle it is binary - you win it all or lose it all. Why wouldn't you want an equal chance of $3,600 more???I understand what you are saying. That is why I asked about craps. My odds would be better at craps of turning my bankroll into 18k than the raffle. I don't know about VP. In this case we want to see the penguins and I need 18k. Getting my bankroll to 15k doesn't cut it. I WANT TO SEE THE PENGUINS!!! :)
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 08:06:43 PM
I understand what you are saying. That is why I asked about craps. My odds would be better at craps of turning my bankroll into 18k than the raffle. I don't know about VP. In this case we want to see the penguins and I need 18k. Getting my bankroll to 15k doesn't cut it. I WANT TO SEE THE PENGUINS!!! :)Or in VP, using the $3600 a credit machine at the Venetian high limit slots
Post by: shmaya on September 04, 2018, 09:50:10 PM
Thank you @Dan and @EJB for your help.
I was unable to comment on what happened because of this:
https://www.facebook.com/chaimandmushka.wilhelm/videos/1099861436831287/?notif_id=1536101551022030¬if_t=feedback_reaction_generic
It looks like everyone managed to sort it out :)
Post by: Dr Moose on September 04, 2018, 10:06:01 PM
I understand what you are saying. That is why I asked about craps. My odds would be better at craps of turning my bankroll into 18k than the raffle. I don't know about VP. In this case we want to see the penguins and I need 18k. Getting my bankroll to 15k doesn't cut it. I WANT TO SEE THE PENGUINS!!! :)This conversation has me very confused. Why not just MS to $18k and call it a day?
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 10:09:56 PM
This conversation has me very confused. Why not just MS to $18k and call it a day?Don’t do it w chase
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 10:10:22 PM
Thank you everyone for buying tickets and supporting our work out in hipster land.Yashar koach to you and your chabad as well!
Thank you @Dan and @EJB for your help.
I was unable to comment on what happened because of this:
https://www.facebook.com/chaimandmushka.wilhelm/videos/1099861436831287/?notif_id=1536101551022030¬if_t=feedback_reaction_generic
It looks like everyone managed to sort it out :)
Post by: boyozucker on September 04, 2018, 10:39:21 PM
I think I need to explain this to you in simple terms since you're having trouble understanding.You assume only 120 tickets were purchased,:-)
Option 1: Raffle
Probability of winning: 120/739 = 16.2% (close to 5:1)
Prize value: $18,295
Expected value of winnings: 16.2% x $18,295 = $2,964
Option 2: Video poker
Payout %: 95% (this is an assumption based on wizardofvegas data. Anything above 82% works)
Wager: $3600
Expected value of winnings: 95% x $3,600 = $3,420
Why wouldn't you want $456 extra in expected earnings?
(You are correct though)
In addition, the payout number radically changes when you factor tax write offs into the equation.
Post by: EJB on September 04, 2018, 10:43:45 PM
You assume only 120 tickets were purchased,:-)
(You are correct though)
In addition, the payout number radically changes when you factor tax write offs into the equation.
Congrats !
Tax hurts the equation. You can’t deduct this as charity on your taxes, and you have to pay tax on winnings (aside for cost offset).
Post by: 12HRS on September 04, 2018, 11:08:38 PM
I understand what you are saying. That is why I asked about craps. My odds would be better at craps of turning my bankroll into 18k than the raffle. I don't know about VP. In this case we want to see the penguins and I need 18k. Getting my bankroll to 15k doesn't cut it. I WANT TO SEE THE PENGUINS!!! :)
Go back to work for 1 month. I assume if you do that would open up GC->MO there again which should allow you to cover the full amount of the trip without all this gambling. :-X
Post by: ExGingi on September 04, 2018, 11:44:50 PM
I understand what you are saying. That is why I asked about craps. My odds would be better at craps of turning my bankroll into 18k than the raffle. I don't know about VP. In this case we want to see the penguins and I need 18k. Getting my bankroll to 15k doesn't cut it. I WANT TO SEE THE PENGUINS!!! :)Certain zoos have free days.
Post by: 12HRS on September 04, 2018, 11:46:56 PM
Certain zoos have free days.
I'm glad you aren't calling my yeshiva a zoo
Post by: gingyguy on September 04, 2018, 11:47:47 PM
Certain zoos have free days.the days that those zoos are free you can usually get
chassidim and penguins
Post by: grodnoking on September 05, 2018, 03:24:57 AM
Congrats !But it's a business expense. He's going on the trip so he can ask Dan all his CC questions.
Tax hurts the equation. You can’t deduct this as charity on your taxes, and you have to pay tax on winnings (aside for cost offset).
Post by: aro123 on September 05, 2018, 09:33:27 AM
You assume only 120 tickets were purchased,:-)what time did you buy them? why did you wait till the end?
(You are correct though)
In addition, the payout number radically changes when you factor tax write offs into the equation.
Post by: boyozucker on September 05, 2018, 09:35:28 AM
Wanted to be certain about my odds.
Post by: chulent613 on September 05, 2018, 03:47:57 PM
4 minutes to 3pm .
Wanted to be certain about my odds.
You bought it as an investment in order to resell if you won?
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 05, 2018, 03:49:48 PM
You bought it as an investment in order to resell if you won?Buy low, sell high!
Post by: ExGingi on September 05, 2018, 04:10:25 PM
You bought it as an investment in order to resell if you won?Simple math: Win and sell - great ROI. Don't win - just made a charitable contribution.
Post by: LoLo on September 05, 2018, 05:15:40 PM
Post by: AussieMan on September 06, 2018, 10:28:24 PM
I think I need to explain this to you in simple terms since you're having trouble understanding.How do these compare to these odds
Option 1: Raffle
Probability of winning: 120/739 = 16.2% (close to 5:1)
Prize value: $18,295
Expected value of winnings: 16.2% x $18,295 = $2,964
Option 2: Video poker
Payout %: 95% (this is an assumption based on wizardofvegas data. Anything above 82% works)
Wager: $3600
Expected value of winnings: 95% x $3,600 = $3,420
Why wouldn't you want $456 extra in expected earnings?
https://www.dansdeals.com/advertisement/raffle-might-actually-win-join-mesivta-shaarei-adirims-chancex12-will-12-chances-win-10000/
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 06, 2018, 10:31:26 PM
https://www.dansdeals.com/advertisement/raffle-might-actually-win-join-mesivta-shaarei-adirims-chancex12-will-12-chances-win-10000/Terrible odds.
Post by: AussieMan on September 06, 2018, 10:45:31 PM
Terrible odds.Correct.
They have a whole advertising campaign about the great odds.
Meanwhile the expected payout is around $32 and ticket costs $432.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 06, 2018, 10:47:38 PM
Correct.Looks like they are keeping over 90%. @EJB
They have a whole advertising campaign about the great odds.
Meanwhile the expected payout is around $32 and ticket costs $432.
Post by: EJB on September 06, 2018, 10:53:22 PM
Looks like they are keeping over 90%. @EJBBut if you really want the 10k...
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 06, 2018, 10:54:05 PM
But if you really want the 10k...I want Penguins!!!
Post by: EJB on September 06, 2018, 10:54:32 PM
I want Penguins!!!Watch Batman
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 06, 2018, 10:55:50 PM
Watch Batman>:(
Post by: 12HRS on September 06, 2018, 11:00:14 PM
I want Penguins!!!
Can't you do it cheaper without paying for kosher?
Post by: davidrotts63 on September 06, 2018, 11:02:53 PM
Can't you do it cheaper without paying for kosher?8th wonder of the world.
Post by: ChaimMoskowitz on September 06, 2018, 11:05:02 PM
Can't you do it cheaper without paying for kosher?Sure! :)
http://www.lpzoo.org/animal/african-penguin
Post by: gozalim on September 06, 2018, 11:57:13 PM
I want Penguins!!!https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/replacetrumpwithapenguin?src=hashtag_click
Post by: shapsam on September 14, 2018, 04:45:13 PM