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Re: Lakewood covid cases
The last 100 years during previous pandemics the reaction was not to shut down the entire country. Indeed, the game plan in March had one goal: flatten the curve. Stop the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

If the goal is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed and let covid run it’s course then you take action only when there is an imminent threat of the system being overwhelmed.

If your game plan is to hold off until a vaccine hopefully saves the world then you can try what England and Israel are doing. Even so the current situation does not look to be as alarming as some are making it out to be.
One of the greatest 'benefits' of a pandemic in today's world as opposed to 100 years ago is all the access to science, etc. that's now available. Your goal is to live like we didn't have this lifesaving science?

September 09, 2020, 12:37:04 AM
Re: Is Covid Spiking in Boro Park?
What's a "mask break"?
Its a 5 minute break halfway through a 40 minute class. Everyone can remove their masks and breathe normally. Girls are not allowed to talk to their neighbors in class during this break.
Slightly incorrect. It's 3 or 4 minute break (depending on period) at the very end of class. They can eat and drink by their desk, and they are allowed to talk to each other.

September 09, 2020, 10:16:40 PM
Re: Lakewood covid cases
I'm betting that everyone is going to be exposed at some point. You can either drag it out in waves or get it over with.
How much are you willing to bet on this one, because that's a ridiculous assumption. To date, 'only' a minority of the country has actually gotten it (most of those before precautions were put in place or in locations with less precautions) and you assume 100% of people will get it with precautions??

It was a major error and a fiasco. There was no overload. They built 600 million dollars worth of field hospitals and treated basically zero patients. The researchers and models made one of the biggest modeling errors in modern times.
Preparing for the worst is the proper approach.
Many people pay tens of thousands of dollars in their lifetime to life insurance that thank God goes unused. Is that also a "modeling error"?

September 09, 2020, 10:54:31 PM
Re: Lakewood covid cases
Sometimes I see things here and I need to read it twice because there's no way someone could actually say that.
Masks don't make a difference , the end.

September 10, 2020, 02:30:52 AM
Re: COVIDiots
Of course it’s not perfect, but the guidance is reasonable. At the moment there isn’t enough capacity for everyone to wear medical masks, since healthcare workers need them more. I do think at this point they should switch guidance from cloth masks to surgical masks as there seems to be no current shortage of them.

Are surgical ones generally supposed to be better than cloth ones?
I wasn't aware.

October 07, 2020, 12:32:03 AM
Re: OSM (Our Shuls Matter) Protests Regardless of what these 2 fellows have done, it's absolutely despicable the words and actions that were taken against them. In public all the more so. Drawing headlines from national news outlets and large Twitter accounts (including, but not limited to, Jake Tapper and Jerry Nadler).
Even if what they did does qualify as "moser", I don't think you'll find a reputable rabbi out there that would commend these actions.

But let's talk about the 'moser' status. Some people are blindly trusting Heshy, among others, that these guys committed mass Mesira. Per JTA, Kornbluh filed a complaint that a shul was illegally open on Pesach. We're not talking about, for example, someone who whistle-blew, for no reason, on someone committing tax or insurance fraud, sending them to prison. This is something that likely was done for the safety of the community, without arresting or getting any individual in trouble.

Regarding Getz -
[Getz] had been outspoken in calling for Orthodox Jews to abide by social distancing guidelines.
What a crime. How dare he.

JTA article -

October 08, 2020, 03:18:28 AM
Re: Pence Vs Harris 2020 Debate
I'm surprised at the poll results. I just watched most of it.

I thought that Harris was more direct in answering questions than Pence. I don't recall anything major she said that was so crazy that I was shaking my head.

Big pet peeve of mine not to answer a question posed. This was on both. I hate when they give long drashos that don't help to answer the question posed. Answer the question then give your drashos.
My biggest issue with Kamala tonight (and always) is her attitude. Super smug, always smirking, as if everyone's on her side.
Does she think it comes across as genuine? To me, it seems extremely fake and unlikeable.
Not sure how others view it, but the attitude alone has gotten me to despise her.

October 08, 2020, 05:18:08 AM
Re: Lakewood covid cases There are a lot of politics going on in the schools. Besides for the schools, it seems many parents are upset about the school-wide testing.
Why is that?
Apparently, and I've even heard these words said, "ignorance is bliss".
Knowing someone has a positive, people will have to quarantine, but they'd rather not know.

October 17, 2020, 10:13:13 PM
Re: Lakewood covid cases Any way to include audio messages here?
Not working via the attach button. Audio files too large (also not sure if file type supported).

I think it's a big problem that in Lakewood, most people are primarily getting all their Covid info and 'facts' from other Lakewood friends, neighbors, etc.
Issue is that most in Lakewood have this view about Covid (that's different that most in the world) that they constantly gossip about. And, when neutral people are so exposed to the same rhetoric for months, their opinion naturally will side with everything they hear (though much of it is ridiculous and illogical talk). I think that's part of what lead to this community-wide agenda against Covid precautions.
For example, I heard Lakewood folks talking about this first audio (that I am trying to send), assuming that it's certainly true, and the government is clearly trying to control their lives.

October 18, 2020, 02:23:39 AM
Re: Lakewood covid cases On a separate note, I was in Lakewood for shabbos. Had heard people saying that many more are being careful and there are more safe minyanim in recent weeks. Went to an outdoor minyan that someone told me he was going to since he's super careful.
Outdoors it was, but not the slightest hint of distancing or masks to be found (aside from my family). Tent looked to be approximately 20ft x 30ft (though I could be wrong), and there were about 60 or so people.
Don't get me wrong, that's better than the indoor alternative, but is this really what everyone in Lakewood considers completely safe?
Many seem to not even understand the concept that some people want to be careful.

People in Lakewood really seem to have no concept of how most of this planet is operating in recent months.

October 18, 2020, 02:39:14 AM
Re: Lakewood covid cases
Where can one get a Rapid Covid test in Lakewood?

Address and tel# would be helpful, I've been out of lkwd many years.

Thanks in advance!

That's a constantly changing situation, but Chemed has had them at times, don't know about right now.

1771 Madison Ave, Lakewood, NJ 08701

October 18, 2020, 08:32:10 PM
Re: Lakewood covid cases
He didn't. He wrote a piece and put his name to it. When people looked him up, they saw his credentials.

This is his opening -
This is Rabbi Yitzchok Dovid Smith with an urgent warning for the safety of your children and the Jewish community.
As a Rov, a lawyer, and a student of infectious diseases, and one who has experience with the corruption at the Centers for Disease Control and the national institutes of health, I'm calling to warn you that testing is a terrible, terrible trap. The community is being bullied, and you can never save yourself by giving in to the demands of a bully.

October 20, 2020, 12:48:06 PM
Beam Bank Scam Pretty wild article from CNBC. Makes you wary of using any of these banks that only sweeps into FDIC banks. Also shows you may not even be able to trust a non-reputable bank when they say they're FDIC insured.

CNBC: This start-up promised higher interest rates on savings. Now some customers are struggling to get their money back.

October 29, 2020, 03:14:37 AM
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election? Of course he doesn't want any more votes counted, being he's up in almost every state that's not called yet, lol.
November 04, 2020, 02:33:02 AM
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election? Wow, Biden did take the lead in WI. If the remaining 5% is still mostly absentee, etc. you have to think he'll maintain (and build upon) this lead.
November 04, 2020, 04:45:43 AM
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
ABC taking back arizona
Um, I'm pretty sure ABC never called AZ. They seem to be the most conservative when it comes to calling races.

November 04, 2020, 02:45:36 PM
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
Is there a website where you can see all the details with counties etc.. something similar to what's shown on CNN?
Actually, ABC has it. Check it out -

November 04, 2020, 09:43:04 PM
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election? As an FYI to all, you can Google the name of any site and then the words "media bias" afterwards. You'll usually find primarily two sites - and When something is rated "extreme" and "low factual reporting", I think it's fair to ignore it.
Gateway Pundit comes with brownie points on its Wikipedia page, "The Gateway Pundit is an American far-right news and opinion website. The website is known for publishing falsehoods, hoaxes, and conspiracy theories."

November 08, 2020, 11:06:17 PM
Re: Life Hacks, Post Your Favorites! To have better eye-to-contact
Make your webcam window very small and place it at the top right next to the camera.

November 11, 2020, 06:04:06 PM
Re: Amex Offers Discussion Thread
anyone have a way to get around that?
Maybe Amazon can put the refund onto an Amazon GC, rather than back on your card?

November 13, 2020, 01:50:46 AM
Re: POLL: Would You Skip A DDMS Deal When Listed As An Advertisement?
Inspired by DDMS comments :)

I personally skipped the HP deal (and this one) after grabbing a much better deal seeing it listed as a sponsored post.
Honored to have my comment featured in a DDF thread :)
My answer is generally yes. I trust Dan, so after hearing him say that it truly is the best black friday deal, I then would have bought it if I needed it. But again, in general, ads likely stop many people from buying, so HP probably did a bad job here (besides how much profit are they making if it really is such a strong deal??)

November 29, 2020, 01:41:22 AM
Re: Stocks
What are the cons of Robinhood?
They make it too easy for newbie investors/traders to blow all their money.

November 29, 2020, 11:28:04 AM
Re: Lakewood NJ Master Thread
Best sushi platters in town?
Aisle 9's is pretty good and well-priced

December 15, 2020, 03:47:33 PM
Re: SBA PPP and EIDL Small Business Loans (some money is forgivable)
Same. Shout out to @cgr for all the help.
On to the next round ;)

December 16, 2020, 04:31:34 PM
Re: Stocks In all seriousness though, as I said before, (with my limited knowledge) I tend to agree that it seems overvalued. However, as you so elegantly said
The market can remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent.

And if you believe this to be an exception to that rule, then
go short it or buy put options

December 17, 2020, 06:22:26 PM
Re: Do you think Biden Stole The 2020 Elections? Most of you were probably already stocked up on this, but if you need more...  ;)

December 22, 2020, 08:00:48 PM
Re: Unemployment Help
any estimate as to when we should start seeing the $600 per person payments?
Seems realistic that many people with direct deposits on file will receive it next week.
The electronic deposits could go out Wednesday and Thursday in large tranches, according to a senior official at the Internal Revenue Service, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the agency’s early plans. It remains unclear, however, whether other obstacles might result in delays — particularly given the holiday week and its impact on staffing at major banks. A senior treasury official, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that the agency was sticking to the same targeted timeline as Mnuchin recently outlined — but signaled that the timing could change.

December 29, 2020, 04:03:01 AM
Re: Misc Credit Card Questions
Hey looking for some advice as I've been out of the game for the past couple of years..

I currently have a Bonvoy personal & business card, and a Citi thank you card. I'm looking to open up as many new cards as possible now to take advantage of whatever offers are out there now.

What's most valuable now, and what cards should I open first?
The Chase Ink business cards have some of the best sign up bonuses in the game now. Currently have 6 of them :)

January 02, 2021, 11:40:52 PM
Chase business bank account security flaw? I called Chase business phone line today regarding my business bank account. All I had to enter in the automated menu was the account number and EIN. That's enough for them to tell you the balance, transaction history, etc. When I talked to an actual person, they also asked for my name and business name. None of these questions keep your account very secure. Account numbers are available to anyone that has ever received a check, and EIN's can often be publicly accessible too. Obviously name and business name are real easy.

I thought that they must only be allowing it because they recognize the number I'm calling from, but nope, tried from a different number and got through the exact same way.

Don't know if more secure data would be required for actions like withdraw, etc., but in any case, it seems like way too much access offered to anyone that so desires.

January 05, 2021, 07:39:02 PM
Re: Chase business bank account security flaw?
Maybe they're using this: ?
You can test by having someone who never called about your account call using a different number so you know that they're not using your number or voice print. Let us know
When I brought up my security concern to them, they did mention this. However, the balance, transaction history, etc., is all available on the automated system without saying a word.

January 05, 2021, 07:54:45 PM
Re: Civil War?
Gen. James Stavridis said there were doubtlessly Russian intelligence agents in that mob, for the sole purpose of accessing classified information in the Capitol offices.
That thought will haunt my days and nights for a long time.

From Reuters:
Sherwin said there were electronics stolen from U.S. senators’ offices that could potentially jeopardize national security.

“Materials were stolen, and we have to identify what was done, mitigate that, and it could have potential national security equities,” he said. “We just don’t know the extent of that damage at this point - if there was damage, we don’t know the extent of that.”

January 07, 2021, 05:31:12 PM
Re: Stocks
I don't see any plausible explanation, I believe current valuation is absolutely insane. I am a big fan of Tesla and it was actually the first stock I bought. The only reasons I haven't sold is because I'm afraid of the tax consequences and since it seems to defy logic, it may very likely keep going up. I wouldn't be surprised now if it hit a $1t market cap
Regarding tax consequences in specific - you are able to donate appreciated stock to charity, and both you and the charity will not pay tax on the gains. Can be great for situations like this. You'd get a receipt for the current value.
Not sure the exact process, but if it's something that you can look into further if you may be interested.
And, if you want to keep the position, you can re-buy in, thus raising your cost basis in the stock (significantly).

January 08, 2021, 02:57:53 PM
Re: Twitter bans sitting President

January 09, 2021, 07:29:06 PM
Re: Civil War? CNN: Pence has not ruled out 25th Amendment, source says.
(Vice President Mike Pence has not ruled out an effort to invoke the 25th Amendment and wants to preserve the option in case President Donald Trump becomes more unstable, a source close to the vice president says.

January 09, 2021, 10:09:47 PM
Re: Twitter bans sitting President
Can anybody do a copy/paste please?
The whole article? Here you go.
It is rare a that a public company stretches so far into the realm of abhorrent behavior, but Twitter's TWTR actions last week revulsed me more than Union Carbide’s Bhopal, Boeing's BA repeated failures with the 787 Max, J&J’s JILL Tylenol scandal and really any other corporate action I have seen in my lifetime.

For a social media platform to censor a world leader—while still giving a voice to preachers of hate like Louis Farrakhan Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei and even O.J. Simpson—isn’t just wrong from a free speech perspective, it's actually terrible business.  So, Twitter has shown little to no sequential growth in its user base of late (details below) but it is still valued like its Big Tech growth-y brethren.  Twitter is not growing, it is shrinking, if measured versus the growth rate of the global economy, and that reduction will accelerate dramatically now that Twitter has offended every Conservative in America with its action to ban President Trump. Only fools in Congress and Big Tech apologists would think that Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act should apply to Twitter.  It is a publisher, not a platform.  Full stop.

So, first and foremost, here is how to deactivate your Twitter account.  I used this excellent article from the Today show last week to kill my account.  It took me more than half an hour, and making it difficult to leave is a classic Big Tech strategy for bolstering user numbers, but eventually I succeeded.  It was worth it.  I will never use that platform again. 

But I do stocks, not activism, and even if a new type of conscious capitalism is my investment strategy for 2021, I still need to make some money. Twitter shares are plunging 7% in pre-market trading Monday, and the market will soon realize that this platform is going to shrink dramatically.  Even on a good day, Twitter is a cesspool of hate speech, lies (including investment advice) and a “trending" algorithm that seems to have a remarkably consistent left-wing bias. I will not be the last person to cancel it.

I have never interacted with an ad on Twitter (or Facebook) and I would never spend a dime with a company that tried to reach me through a private social media channel. I don't do “cancel culture” but I believe Twitter will become radioactive for advertisers, as half the US is revolted by what they have done, and that’s not good for business.

Twitter's self-reported user base grew at a whopping 1% sequentially in 3Q20, with 1% growth internationally and 0% in the U.S.  The comparisons were much better on a year-on-year basis (+29% overall) but remember that 2020 was an extraordinary year for news flow.  But Twitter is not news.  I think that Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey is a pathological liar as well as a horrible human being, so I don't  believe Twitter’s user numbers at all.  The mDAU metric that Twitter now uses reflects, and clearly they will keep changing metrics until they find one that looks decent.  This is a classic Big Tech maneuver. 

In dollars, though, Twitter generated $936 million (million, not billion, this is a small company) in revenues in the third quarter and produced a very low (for Big Tech) 6% operating margin and 3% net margin. So, after a whopping $1 billion loss in Q2, Twitter recovered to make $28 million in the third quarter.  Wow!  That’s just...irrelevant.

With negative free cash flow of $74 million in Q3,  but $7.6 billion of cash and securities on the balance sheet, Twitter is worth more than zero, but extraordinarily less than the $51.48 per share the market was according TWTR stock Friday.  Yes, we have completely forgotten how to value stocks.  Twitter is not the only one but it is the easy one.

With earnings power of less than $1 billion (TWTR reported net income of $1.469 billion in 2019 and will be nowhere near that in 2020) I think this is a steady-state stock.  No growth, no dividend, and no free cash flow to speak of.  That doesn't deserve even a market multiple, but since it’s tech, let’s give TWTR the insane 25x real earnings power that the S&P 500 is granted.  So, add about $5 billion cash (net of debt,) a real cash earnings power of about $750 annually and use the 800 million shares outstanding as of 9/30 and you get a fair value for Twitter of just below $30 per share. But Twitter's user base has shrunk dramatically in the past week, I believe, and so $30 is really more of a best-case scenario on earnings power that won't exist with a smaller user base. 

So, let’s say someone thought TWTR's fair value was in the high-$20s and would pay $20 for TWTR, to imply an attractive return, and use that as our share price target,  That implies a decline of more than 50% from current levels.  How long will it take to get there?  Not long in my opinion.  Plus, when trading options, you have to take into account the overreaction that always occurs with an inflective event.  Do I think Twitter shares will trade below $20, at least temporarily at some point between now and the end of March?  Hell, yeah.

So, when searching for that perfect option contract, always look for one with a decent amount of  contracts outstanding (which implies a more efficiently-priced contract) and a relatively low implied volatility, I see March 19th 2021 TWTR $25 puts quoted at $0.13 this morning, and, man, I gotta get me some of that.  Pre-market quotes are notoriously unreliable for deep-out-of-the-money options contracts, so let the market open and let it trade a little before you buy,  That's what I will do today for my personal account and for my most risk-aware clients. 

So, that’s how to make money betting against Twitter.  The new conscious capitalism of 2021 entails fighting Big Tech censorship and the monopolistic power that those companies wield.  Not only is Jack Dorsey at Twitter a revolting human stain (as proven by this Congressional testimony and takedown by Senator Ted Cruz) his company isn't that big or growing that fast—and is about to shrink.  I am uncomfortable sometimes with Amazon's AMZN power, but I won't be unsubscribing from Prime any time soon, and I don't have the guts to bet against Jeff Bezos' stock. But Dorsey is not Bezos and TWTR is no AMZN. 

Twitter is a faux-tech outfit with no competitive moat and a customer base filled with—it would seem—idiots.  It’s too small to be considered Big Tech, but the media has given it outsized influence.   Only you and I can fight that war and destroy Twitter's base.  So, delete your account, and short the stock.  Making money while doing the right thing feels extra good...doesn't it?

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website.
Jim Collins

January 11, 2021, 09:27:30 PM
Re: Site Suggestions
It would be cool if hat tip posts were linked to people's profiles, not just the count.
On a similar note, but even easier - maybe the "posts: 123" on the side of every message can be linked (just like "total likes: 123" is) directly to that user's posts. Just a shortcut instead of clicking profile and then show posts, it would make it one click.

January 12, 2021, 02:04:04 AM
Re: Stocks Posting this a day late, but lol.

January 12, 2021, 04:47:16 PM
Covidiot Stories
True story. Family member is a school nurse. Kid comes in complaining that he's not feeling well. He has 102. She asks him if anyone is sick at home. He says yeah, my mother and my father have covid.
They should be banned from parenting. Get CPS on the line.

January 17, 2021, 01:30:05 AM
Re: SBA PPP and EIDL Small Business Loans (some money is forgivable)
That I agree. You can apply in advance as long as you meet the rules the day the funds hit your account.
That's a game changer for those trying to get both 1st and 2nd draw now, no?
They can apply for the second draw right away (after applying? Being approved?) and receive approval on the second draw before funds run out... and just wait the required time to sign docs and get the disbursement. Is there some sort of timeline given to sign docs and get disbursement?

January 19, 2021, 02:05:33 AM
Re: SBA PPP and EIDL Small Business Loans (some money is forgivable)
Loan applicants.
Those who applied from April through December 27 are all loan applicants.
Ah ok.
The order of prioritization for the EIDL grants seems odd. Why do first round grant applicants and loan applicants deserve it more? (If anything, it's more logical to give those that have never received it first. Though, I'm not saying they should do it that way either, because those that got $1k shouldn't necessarily jump to the back of the line for $10k).

January 20, 2021, 12:34:27 AM
Re: President Biden Feel free to tag all those that have been swearing since November that this won't happen.
January 20, 2021, 12:24:46 PM
Re: SBA PPP and EIDL Small Business Loans (some money is forgivable)
I just got my approval from biz2credit!
I referred two relatives there, and they also were both approved.

January 20, 2021, 07:45:49 PM
Re: Lakewood covid cases Just heard (indirectly) from someone who works at a testing site (not Chemed) that they traced ~50 positive cases to one wedding from last week. And that seems to be mostly, if not fully, from that single test site. So I'd venture to say there were probably many more.
February 05, 2021, 04:07:54 PM
Re: Lakewood covid cases
I never heard of any test sight that does tracing after someone is positive
This was not an official scientific tracing, just an employee who constantly asks the people where they've been, etc. and put together the pieces.

February 05, 2021, 04:28:33 PM
Re: Stocks
I am in since .285
The real question is how much :)

Next thing we know, this stock will be in the S&P500

February 08, 2021, 10:36:44 PM
Re: Unemployment Help
You mean W2. If they're unemployed for 1099 then they're eligible for (partial) PUA if they work less than 31 hours/week and earn less than $504/week on their W2.
Might want to clarify that this is NY policy, as it's different in every state I believe.
I understand you're both located there -- just in case someone else reads that and doesn't know.

February 11, 2021, 02:24:35 AM
Re: Lakewood covid cases Re: the monoclonal antibodies - the WSJ yesterday wrote about a small study on the Eli Lilly two-drug mix.
A 1,035-person study found that the two-drug cocktail reduced the combined risk of death and hospitalization by 70% compared with patients who received a placebo. Some 7% of patients in the study who received the placebo died or were hospitalized for Covid-19, versus 2% of those who received the Lilly combination. Some patients had side effects including certain allergic reactions.

February 11, 2021, 02:55:02 PM
Re: Lakewood covid cases
K   please call the NY buildings department on me.  PM for my address.

if CDC says 10 days, and 24 hours after fever stopped, then i'm certain that 7 days after fever stopped and 9 days after symptoms IM ok to leave with a mask for a short appointment(which fever is obviously and indicator of contagiousness)
Are you being serious?

February 11, 2021, 03:17:56 PM
Re: Lakewood covid cases

I don't think any of us give a damn if someone does stupid things to themselves, but to other people, there's a line drawn.

February 11, 2021, 06:08:31 PM
Re: When will a vaccine *really* be available? Chemed vaccine clinic tomorrow 9am-12pm for pregnant women.

February 11, 2021, 06:11:21 PM