Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member.


Messages - Ergel

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 935
1
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/27/health/second-peak-coronavirus-explained-trnd/index.html

And articles like this just drive people right. So much of it is not accurate. Claiming COVID-19 has a 6% fatality rate is just stupid

2
Past performance is a guarantee of future results

4
Just Shmooze / Re: George floyd was murdered by the MPD on tape.
« on: May 27, 2020, 08:01:45 AM »
I want to throw up. Had to turn it off

5
The back and forth on this forum between the "it's over, COVID is done" vs. "humanity is certain to die out due to COVID-19" is nauseating (especially when in actuality, that's likely neither sides real opinion).
So....let's make this real. Right now there are 100K deaths in the US.
For all the people who are on side 1, pledge to give $1K to coronavirus victims campaigns if the final total of deaths is greater than 350K.
For all those on side 2,  pledge to give $1K to coronavirus victims campaigns if the final total of deaths is less than 200K.

6
Cases in Israel on the rise again 35 yesterday up from 15 the day before, and there seem to be a few clusters at schools.
Per my next door neighbor doctor, most of the increase is in Tel Aviv

7
The question is assuming this theory is correct what can be done with this information to fight the spread.
Why are some people superspreaders and others not? Do superspreaders have severe symptoms? Can an asymptomatic individual be a superspreader? (likely not)
I was wondering this also. Do superspreaders tests look different than the standard positive test? Presumably they should, but I don't know. Wonder if they tested it with the SK nightclub superspreader

8
Based on some of the articles posted here and in @Dan's roundup, there seems to be growing support for the fact that most infections are spread by a few hyper-infectious virus-shedding superspreaders. In Israel estimates are that 5% of the infected were responsible for at least 80% of the infections.

If these numbers are correct, and they are true elsewhere (see SK nightclub superspreader), then perhaps there is more "chance" to the virus than previously thought. Let's say we assume that the R0 number of the virus is somewhere in the 2-3 range. If there were a low standard deviation from that number (meaning most infected infect around 2 or 3 others), then given the huge sample size of infected there isn't a tremendous room for chance to effect the outcome of virus spreading.
However, if as it appears, there is a HUGE standard deviation, meaning many infected will infect 0 others and a few infected will infect many, then the sample size of infecters is smaller than we thought.
Let's take Israel as an example. 5% of the total 16K infections is only 750 people. When you are dealing with exponential growth, the beginning of the chart has much more impact than the later you get in the chart. If so, then we are looking at maybe the first quarter of those numbers as the most important - at the point we are only talking about 190 people. With those numbers, we are talking a tiny sample size. So a specific person's behavior (and chance) can have a much greater impact on the overall outcome of the pandemic.

9
Didn't listen, but based on your description I would ask whether the science of mental health is discussed.
If you look at the article I posted previously, he is specifically referring to shuls, not the broader lockdown and safe ways of having outlets from the lockdown
https://www.yutorah.org/lectures/lecture.cfm/957191/rabbi-mayer-e-twersky/the-prohibition-to-conduct-minyanim-and-other-gatherings-in-america-at-this-time/

10
How does this compare to pixel 3a?

11
This sounds great. I’d love to see where the CDC has that information, they don’t link to it.

There are some serious discrepancies in their reporting.

First, they are misleadingly comparing COVID’s IFR to flu’s CFR. Even at a .26 IFR,  that is estimated to be around 5-10x flu’s IFR.

Second, the “60,000 die of the flu in the US every year” line is obviously blatantly false. The real number of average annual deaths isn’t anywhere close. Here and here are some interesting pieces discussing the obvious phenomenon of us not actually knowing any people who died of the flu when based on the statistics it should be far more prevalent.

Third, that would extrapolate to more than a 100% infection rate in NYC..... Do YOU believe 110% of NYC has been infected????
Love posts where I actually learn something. Thank you. I feel so stupid for believing the 30-60K number

12
https://matzav.com/cdc-coronavirus-death-rate-likely-just-0-26-twice-as-deadly-as-the-flu/
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/280793
.26% death rate

If that's the case, then 28K deaths in NY means nearly 11 million infections!?!? which should mean 50% antibody rates. But that's not what the numbers say?
And 100K deaths in the US means 38 million infections?

And Sweden's 4K deaths should mean 1.5 million infections, so why is there antibody levels in Stockholm only 7%

Something doesn't add up
Besides, matzav source is arutz sheva which doesn't quote a source. Fake news?

13
Just Shmooze / Re: Interesting Articles...
« on: May 25, 2020, 08:08:28 AM »
Interesting how Newsmax picked “has pierced our illusion of certainty and control” for their headline

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/john-roberts-high-school-graduation/2020/05/23/id/968733/

While CNN and Time found other things to stress.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/politics/justice-john-roberts-coronavirus-graduation-remarks-westminster-school/index.html
https://time.com/5841937/chief-justice-pandemic-teaches-humility-compassion/
Eh, they both led with the line in the opening paragraph. I think you are grasping at straws

14
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/280793
.26% death rate

If that's the case, then 28K deaths in NY means nearly 11 million infections!?!? which should mean 50% antibody rates. But that's not what the numbers say?
And 100K deaths in the US means 38 million infections?

And Sweden's 4K deaths should mean 1.5 million infections, so why is there antibody levels in Stockholm only 7%

Something doesn't add up

15
I'm not getting involved in the discussion, but. I think the question is what is their basis in halacha to be machmir. Chumros without a basis in halacha are not chumros.
https://www.yutorah.org/lectures/lecture.cfm/957191/rabbi-mayer-e-twersky/the-prohibition-to-conduct-minyanim-and-other-gatherings-in-america-at-this-time/
Probably worth it to read it before you bash people

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 935