Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member.


Topics - Ergel

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 11
1
I have a flight booked TLV-EWR on United via Ultimate Rewards in J, booked in November. Price currently is down around $260
Is there any way to recoup the funds? Cancel the flight for credit and rebook and retain the $260 credit?

2
COVID-19 Discussion Board / Date of second dose
« on: January 05, 2021, 08:53:58 AM »
I received my first dose of Pfizer vaccine December 25. I'm currently scheduled to get second dose January 18th. Considering trying to move up the second dose so I can leave the country (have a sick grandmother). Anyone know where it's published how soon it's safe/effective to get the second dose?

3
General Discussion / Weird AirBNB messages
« on: December 24, 2020, 08:49:18 AM »
I have someone reaching out to stay in my AirBNB, but it is a weird profile and they are asking weird questions.
Firstly his name is Fatalo, not even sure what kind of name that is. It was showing a picture before, and not sure if he is Israeli or Arab and clearly isn't frum (which is weird that he would want to stay in RBS).
First he asked
Quote
היי מחפש חדר / דירת אירוח
לזוג בבית שמש
אין לי מושג איך עובדת המערכת
אשמח שתיצור קשר לפרטים בפלאפון !
Now he's asking me
Quote
ואחרי שביצעתי הזמנה .
מגיע פשוט ביום ובשעה שהזמנתי ומקבל מפתח ?

והאם יש כניסה נפרדת ודיסקרטיות מסויימת


Is he trying to use my apartment for a tryst? Should I just ignore him.
Whole thing is so odd

4
Deals/Deal Requests / DDMS Pixel deal
« on: November 30, 2020, 09:55:25 AM »
Should I get the Pixel 3a from B&H DDMS deal for $239?
Or should I get the Pixel 4a(5G) from Google for $350 + 2 months Fi service ($30)?

5
Politics / Post your prediction
« on: November 03, 2020, 07:45:58 AM »
Post your election predictions here. No discussion allowed, only answer the following questions
1. Post your map
2. Your prediction for the popular vote outcome
3. The date of when you predict the election will be called by the MSM
4. Your prediction of Trump's election night response
5. Your prediction of Biden's election night response
6. Will the case go to SCOTUS?


1.

2. 54-46
3. 11/6
4. Declare victory
5. Declare victory
6. No

6
COVID-19 Discussion Board / US Excess deaths
« on: October 22, 2020, 02:58:00 PM »
Very interesting and sad report here https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w

Here is excess deaths by age



Obviously the number that stands out is 25-44 excess deaths. Around 6K Covid deaths reported in that age bracket and excess deaths are around 26K, meaning 20K deaths presumably caused by other reasons - presumably suicide/overdoes and the like. Terribly devestating.

However, I find it very strange that we don't see a similar spike in under 25. Why would those types of deaths specifically target 25+ and not under 25?

Also interesting in that data is that 25-44 had 10%+ excess death rate from the beginning of the year (as did 65-74, but not 45-64 ??? )

Also, very interesting is the excess death rate by ethnicity. White non-hispanic excess death is almost neglible.



7
COVID-19 Discussion Board / COVIDiots
« on: October 05, 2020, 11:31:07 AM »
My dad had a worker come in last week a day after she tested for COVID, and obviously the test turned out positive.
My dad is not young and has been very careful. So stupid that he now has to have exposure because people are so stupid. Besides that, he had to go into quarantine for yuntif, ruining his yuntif. What was this lady thinking. She knew she might test positive and have to tell him. What did she gain by hiding.
Besides not being able to go to their children (each one that lives locally had a kid in quarantine), my parents now spent yuntif not together. I just don't get what this virus does to make people stupid

8
COVID-19 Discussion Board / NYC free testing
« on: July 13, 2020, 08:58:58 PM »
Anyone have a website of locations for free testing in NYC?
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/coronavirus/get-tested/covid-19-testing.page
This says "Not all testing sites listed are affiliated with the NYC Test & Trace Corps, and some may charge for testing."

9
Knowing what you know now, and the obvious reality on the ground that there is zero appetite for a second lockdown - did we lock down too early in parts of the country that had almost no outbreak at the start. Would we have been better off waiting 1 month until it got a little bad, then done a serious lockdown for 2(?) months. Then reopened.
A couple of benefits:
1. Maximize effects of the lockdown - when you locked down early you didn't accomplish anything long term - just delayed the start of major spread. If you lock down a month later - you use the lockdown to diminish that spread and at the end of it you are later in the calendar
2. People take the lockdown more seriously because they know the serious nature and local impact of the virus
3. More infected people by the time you reopen - so some of the community has immunity (not sure how much of a difference this will make if it's only 5% or so)



How about another theory? Should we have 10 day open followed by 5 day lockdown going forward? Or 20 open 10 lockdown? This should slow down the pace of infection as we test extensively during the lockdown and hope we slow the virus with each lockdown.

10
General Discussion / Kvarim for Israeli citizens
« on: June 15, 2020, 09:54:26 AM »
Does anyone know where I can find details about how kevarim assignments works for Israeli citizens? Does it make sense for Israeli citizens to buy plots - or they will get them for free anyways?

11
COVID-19 Discussion Board / The current state of COVID-19 in Israel
« on: June 05, 2020, 11:04:09 AM »
I see there is sentiment that COVID-19 is now out of control in Israel and headed to a massive outbreak. (I even received a message from a colleague in India that he received a notification(?) that 40 schools were closed in Israel and that the situation is worsening rapidly). There was even a (since deleted) vile post from someone here expressing happiness over the fact that the US closed down later than Israel, allowing the virus to spread, making it less dangerous in NY now so he can daven with a minyan (as if 20K dead in NY of which reportedly 2K are frum yidden is a worthy sacrifice so he can daven btzibur).

This could not be further from the truth. It is true that Israel had for most of May around 20 new cases per day. And then over the past week the numbers have grown to around 100-130 per day. This is indeed a concerning trend.
90 schools are closed - but this is truly out of an abundance of caution - the total number of cases from those 90 schools is below 500. And they have tested every person from those schools and placed all of them in quarantine. This does not represent a major outbreak - rather a proactive response to prevent a major outbreak.
Israel is more or less completely open - all stores and businesses are operating, obviously with distancing restrictions. Schools are all open. Shuls are open. Kollelim are functioning. IY'H this will continue and we will not see a broader outbreak.

Even just to compare to NY, there are still more daily new cases in NY (200-300 daily) vs. new cases in Israel. To think that NY is in better shape than Israel at this point is laughable.

12
COVID-19 Discussion Board / Put up or shut up time
« on: May 27, 2020, 07:54:53 AM »
The back and forth on this forum between the "it's over, COVID is done" vs. "humanity is certain to die out due to COVID-19" is nauseating (especially when in actuality, that's likely neither sides real opinion).
So....let's make this real. Right now there are 100K deaths in the US.
For all the people who are on side 1, pledge to give $1K to coronavirus victims campaigns if the final total of deaths is greater than 350K.
For all those on side 2,  pledge to give $1K to coronavirus victims campaigns if the final total of deaths is less than 200K.

13
COVID-19 Discussion Board / Superspreaders and small sample size
« on: May 26, 2020, 02:34:34 PM »
Based on some of the articles posted here and in @Dan's roundup, there seems to be growing support for the fact that most infections are spread by a few hyper-infectious virus-shedding superspreaders. In Israel estimates are that 5% of the infected were responsible for at least 80% of the infections.

If these numbers are correct, and they are true elsewhere (see SK nightclub superspreader), then perhaps there is more "chance" to the virus than previously thought. Let's say we assume that the R0 number of the virus is somewhere in the 2-3 range. If there were a low standard deviation from that number (meaning most infected infect around 2 or 3 others), then given the huge sample size of infected there isn't a tremendous room for chance to effect the outcome of virus spreading.
However, if as it appears, there is a HUGE standard deviation, meaning many infected will infect 0 others and a few infected will infect many, then the sample size of infecters is smaller than we thought.
Let's take Israel as an example. 5% of the total 16K infections is only 750 people. When you are dealing with exponential growth, the beginning of the chart has much more impact than the later you get in the chart. If so, then we are looking at maybe the first quarter of those numbers as the most important - at the point we are only talking about 190 people. With those numbers, we are talking a tiny sample size. So a specific person's behavior (and chance) can have a much greater impact on the overall outcome of the pandemic.

14
Up In The Air / Question about booking for tomorrow
« on: May 17, 2020, 04:25:05 PM »
Booking a United ticket for tomorrow night, which may need to be cancelled

Am I correct to assume that I have 24 hours if I book with Priceline? And If I book with United, no cancellation window?
And if I book with Priceline, I will still be able to upgrade MUA award?

15
COVID-19 Discussion Board / "The darkest winter in modern history"
« on: May 15, 2020, 08:13:32 AM »
Is WW2 included in modern history?

I just hate the hyperbole. It makes people ignore the risk. Just be honest with people. People are smart enough to listen to real data

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 11