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Messages - Denverite

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COVID-19 Discussion Board / Re: Can we stop this stupidity ?!?
« on: April 26, 2020, 02:15:54 AM »
To each their own. I was ignored in February and in March..ignore me again. I'm not running for Congress, I'm just laying out the facts and the dangers

You should run for Congress, youíve got lots off DDF supporters!  :)

COVID-19 Discussion Board / Re: Can we stop this stupidity ?!?
« on: April 26, 2020, 02:12:25 AM »
Are you really comparing something that has killed hundreds of Jews and (based on current estimates) kills nearly 1% of everyone infected to climate change?

As more antibody tests are being administered, they are seeing that infection rates were so much higher, and hence death rates so much lower. The article below says based on this NY antibody test itís looking like a 0.6% death rate. Take out the high percentage of deaths only within nursing homes (I read a full 58% of deaths in NY were in nursing homes and in Colorado itís 64%) and the risk of dying to the average person who doesnít live in a nursing home is WAY lower than what is hyped.

Iím not at all diminishing the seriousness of the virus, the many vast unknowns of long term affects, and need for caution and good health protocols to limit its spread but the models and predictions we heard even a couple weeks ago were wildly exaggerated.  Numerous times over the last month Iíve thought back to a writing of the Rebbe where he dismissed concerns about carbon dating in calculating the age of the earth because as he so wisely stated it, while we can easily read a piece of information, taking that information to try then to extrapolate a prediction beyond that information (whether itís a timeline of age, models of climate change, or death predictions from a virus) is extremely difficult.

Here is a link to an article referencing the NY infection and death rates.

Up In The Air / Re: Ex-TLV Routes and Flights Discussions
« on: April 26, 2020, 01:34:49 AM »
Confused, article says self isolate. Is it self isolate or isolation hotels?

At present non-Israelis are not allowed into Israel and Israelis returning from abroad must self-isolate for 14 days.

Also good to United is starting TLV- SFO route again.

Iím confused, how can they possibly succeed with these reopened flights without non-citizens entering?

The lchaim for my daughter cost the price of the shnaps and that is about it.

Just curious, did you discuss this type of thing with your mechutanim (or even the shadchan) before dating/engagement or did both sides kind of have the same assumptions and expectations?

Doing these things like they used to do it in the small shtetel inderheim is what everyone yearns and wishes, but will very unlikely happen. We've become real New Yorkers. Pay $$$ for a party planner and caterer and get the aufruf/sheva bruchos off my head.

-1 people forget very quickly. As soon as life goes back to normal , even if it takes a yr or 2, people will ( unfortunately) go back to doing the same chasunas.
Same with Pesach hotels, people here think that industry is over, I think thatís laughable. Too big of a a need ( real for some, imagined for most)  for so many people, and too much money to be made...

Your are for sure correct about Pesach programs because of the trauma of this year!! :P And maybe Iím being naive about future Simchas.

I also think that what you are saying just shows how all the ďaccompanimentsĒ to weddings have gotten out of hand. Even in Denver, people use party planners and caterers for weddings and bar mitzvahs but do so for any of those others parties/dinners before and after wedding would just look totally ridiculous here. Just like people donít want to look cheap, they also donít want to come off as obnoxious and ostentatious and maybe Iím naive but I think standards can be reset. On the other hand maybe itís self selecting, and instead of fighting their local trends, people who donít like that showy NY and LA culture often purposely move OOT (it was one of my main reasons for leaving LA) which may be why the expectations of the people who choose to stay get worse and worse.

I also see why people from small communities often seek shiduchim for their children from families in other small communities because they have more culturally in common. Iíve been a shadchanit for a few couples and also helped make ďresearchĒ calls with rebbeim I know in Los Angeles. Now I routinely make sure to ask if the boy (itís usually the girl from here) and his family would be embarrassed by a small Vort in the home or relieved to find a more simple girl.  I personally feel itís as important as discussing religious hashkafa, as expectations can be so wildly different.

I truly hope Iím not offending anyone, just giving the perspective of someone who left and has now ďgone nativeĒ as a real OOTowner.  :)

I highly doubt weddings will return to anywhere near their prior size at least through the end of 2020 and probably longer, given residual social distancing efforts.

I assume a gradual easing of social distancing over the coming year (minyanim resume by the summer with certain density constraints, schools resume in September etc), but that  there is no handshaking, no tight crowds, no hand-in-hand dancing, mask wearing in public, etc. at least into 2021.

At that point the norms will have been effectively disrupted and there is a realistic option for this communal behavior to permanently reset . . . . . . providing there is a genuine will and concerted effort from both those who can and cannot comfortably afford these expenses. (BTW - There are many affluent families signed on to that list).

One might even argue that remedying this is among highest forms of tzedoko/chesed as it maintains the dignity of the beneficiary (more dignified than offering loans or grants for hachnosos kallah so that every family can keep up).

Couldnít agree more. Also, marrying off one child in the backyard (and watching others do it) will probably affect parents view of whatís ďnecessaryĒ for future weddings.

Someone just forwarded me a screenshot of a message from Dr. Stuart Ditchek (who is the I think the same guy that put out the video about the people doing secret minyanim, etc.) saying:

ďNYS has pulled all summer camp licenses in upstate.  Period. No camps currently have the option.  Whoever states that they are opening is not being forthcoming.  My own program, Kids of Courage, has decided not to even consider trip or activities. Unless NYS reverses, itís not happening.Ē

I donít know the person who wrote this and if his info is correct but that is his exact quote.

Is she Hispanic?

Yes. And I do know that many churches have much more diverse populations than hers, which is basically exclusively spanish speaking 1st generation immigrants (many of whom arenít here legally).  She owns her own home but has told me she is the only person amongst her friends who doesnít rent.   Maybe in Brooklyn or Manhattan you would have a synagogue where everyone was a renter but I think anywhere else that would be rare.  I donít think frum people realize how rare it is to have extremely wealthy and poor people on Medicaid and Section 8 constantly socializing together.

Specifically relating to the topic of frum weddings.  One of the things I love most about living in a small Jewish Community is that community expectations are way different. I canít conceive of even the wealthiest frum families in Denver spending thousands of dollars on a Aufruf, Vort or Sheva Brachot and they are almost always put together by the women in the community all working together and making things (although that could also because we donít have a lot of kosher restaurants and Iíve been a hostess for numerous wedding showers and Sheva Brachot and families just donít spend that much here. It would seem odd and ostentatious to do so.  When I read that original post, the ancillary costs sounded totally insane to me but it seems like many people feel itís generally normal.  The costs of the wedding itself, however, sound very reasonable and now I know why most (non-Chabad) families do their weddings in Lakewood, and then head back here for Sheva Brachot, even if both sides are from Denver!

We can talk all about this and the plans to switch but the reason for all the fancy weddings and everything else we get nicer the we really need is because of Peer pressure period.

The reason why we have so much peer pressure is because only in the frum community do we have really rich people living next door to someone who is broke and canít put food on the table they all go to the same schools a lot are friendly with each other.

Having this creates peer pressure that not other community has and even the not wealthy have to live and look like their neighbor who are millionaires.

Till we fix this which will never happen because it shouldnít the weddings the cars will always stay the same.

People who can afford the real luxuries will not give that up and shouldnít have to because their neighbor gets peer pressure from it.

My two cents.

I never thought of it this way but I think you are spot on.  There is no one in my housekeepersí Catholic Church membership, and in her social circle, who isnít working class.  She has told me all about their quincineras and other events and they also spend thousands but they also help each other with flowers, cooking, etc and the expectations are way lower.  Because sheís worked at so many Simchas and for me for years weíve talked about these things. There are many families in my kidsí school who make less than my housekeeper and her construction worker husband and yet we all (Baruch HaShem) get to enjoy all of each otherís Simchas, including some very fancy ones.  Iím sure that disparity does put huge pressure on many families.

Why is it so hard to fathom? Most of the population isn't considered high risk. Why do they want to sit at home if they're under impression they won't get sick.

+1 plus people are literally watching their businesses die by the day and since we arenít gonna stay closed for 18months why not open relatively soon, with responsible social distancing. Also, If you live outside of NY, the hospital systems seem able to handle the cases and also we live a totally different, way less population dense life where we can much more easily safely interact with people.

Up In The Air / Re: What Award Itinerary Did You Just Book/Hold?
« on: April 13, 2020, 05:55:07 PM »
Is ANA the cheapest miles way to book to TLV?  Dan has a comparison somewhere but cant find it.

Dan explains it in his post about cheaper airlines to book (Aegean slightly more but allow OW bokings, Turkish slightly less) than ANA's RT at 104k but ANA can be transferred from Amex MR points so they happen to be way easier for me to earn.  I also love that Amex transfers points to them in about 48hrs (good luck with Marriott transfers that can take weeks), and that I can book online via ANAs really great multi-city, multi-class award search tool.  Also, if you don't change the routing, ANA allows unlimited date and time changes for free.  You can also redeposit the whole reservation for only 3k points.  Twice now, I've found better connection times for my Den-SFO and SFO-Denver legs and they've changed it for me for free. Their phone reps are also super helpful.

Up In The Air / Re: What Award Itinerary Did You Just Book/Hold?
« on: March 31, 2020, 06:12:39 PM »
RT EWR-TLV UA J for 104K ANA . 
Just hope travel will be back to normal by then 😋

Me too!  I also just booked this with ANA but via SFO for Hannukah...hopefully by then we will be able to enjoy some travel.

A few tidbits  -Italy has the world 2nd oldest population after Japan.

So. Korea as of 3.4.2020 had tested 130K people had 5,300 cases and 32 deaths   -  With a mortality rate of .06% 

The Diamond Princess has a mortality rate of  .08%

The other end of the spectrum is China, Iran and Italy at 3~3. 8% mortality rate.  The majority of deaths in Italy have been those 60+ years old, the same with the US.

Apparently there are two strains of the Covid19 - based on the progression in  Italy, South Korea and Iran - we will either see a huge uptick in cases and perhaps deaths in the US and other parts of the world.

Very interesting, thank you for posting. I think the age and demographic aspect of this virus are so huge (and unusual compared to respiratory viruses) and they donít seem to be covered by the media in the context of all these deaths.

Up In The Air / Re: Ex-TLV Routes and Flights Discussions
« on: March 05, 2020, 10:01:28 AM »

Yup, I posted it in the Covid thread. Lufthansa, Swiss and Austrian are all cancelled.  Even without an epidemic in Israel, I donít see how the Israeli economy quickly recovers from all this. At least flights are now resuming before Pesach.  :'(

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