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Messages - Lurker

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1
There were frum people in NY sick with Covid before Purim. I don’t know who foresaw it and who didn’t but it was completely obvious NY was the next Italy. When I brought it up at the Purim Seuda I was told ‘nah Italians are weird people’.

On March 8 I booked a ticket to escape NYC. Purim was March 9. I left on the 16th just a few days before borders started shutting down around the world for Americans.
There were people who did, but they were the exception, not the rule. Let's not rewrite history here.

2
FTFY, anyone with half a brain, and saw what was happening in Italy knew that if there was one case in the frum community there would be 100,000 cases after Purim, the only question was if there was one case, now we know there was.
By last Purim is was obvious NYC would look like Italy within a few weeks.

I didn't see this coming by Purim. There were people who did, but they were the exception, not the rule. Let's not rewrite history here.

3
Do you know first hand of any expectant ladies in lakewoodd who are seriously ill with covid? If yes, why isn't there more awareness & talk about this?

Lakewood is running its second vax drive for pregnant women for this reason, IINM. And yes, there should be more awareness and publicity. Communication and awareness on all thing Covid-related has been... less than stellar.

4
COVID-19 Discussion Board / Re: Czar Cuomo
« on: Yesterday at 03:54:50 PM »
Without getting into this NY/FL/CA mess yet again... FL and CA were seeded from different strains and have different weather conditions, FL had many "lockdowns" at the city and county levels on par with CA, many of FL's older population are clustered together in their own neighborhoods or even towns away from densely populated areas, and FL's healthcare system kicked some serious tushy despite government policies.

Here's a fun game to play. See if you can guess which stat line belongs to which state:

Cases Per Million / Deaths Per 10M / Fatality Rate
1: 87796 / 14132 / 1.61%
2: 89602 / 12911 / 1.44%
3: 87641 / 14546 / 1.66%
4: 82854 / 23945 / 2.89%
5: 77835 / 25822 / 3.32%
6: 111650 / 21560 / 1.93%
7: 82130 / 14591 / 1.78%
8: 92004 / 20570 / 2.24%
9: 83262 / 23133 / 2.78%
10: 93217 / 16105 / 1.73%

PS. As PG alluded to and as I've been claiming since April, don't use FL as proof of anything until the excess deaths are published. If you think Cuomo covering up NH deaths was bad, DeSantis will deserve to be tied to the same stake.

5

There is no way this isn’t already having a major impact on current deaths

Again, no argument there. You just won't see the right numbers right away.

6

7
Just Shmooze / Re: די קראך פון די פיקעל
« on: Yesterday at 01:08:30 PM »
Krach Time with the Dilleh Dayan

8
It will cause spread, but not another outbreak.

9
FTFY

I said CDC, didn't think the /s was necessary.

10
Just Shmooze / Re: DDF Trivia
« on: Yesterday at 08:00:17 AM »
-1

Didn't say most, just many. Hence the reaction to my shabbos Abba post.

ETA: it was poorly written on my part.

11
Just Shmooze / Re: DDF Trivia
« on: Yesterday at 07:41:03 AM »
I'll assume you missed

FWIW, I also went to a mixed preschool, but I understand that experience isn't shared by many here.

12
Just Shmooze / Re: DDF Trivia
« on: Yesterday at 12:48:51 AM »
You probably never had girls in preschool.

I have one right now  :) TBF, it's mixed, so they never have an issue assigning gender-appropriate roles.

13
It gives you the best case & worse case scenario so you can plan taking both ends into account

I don't see how they can possibly give you either scenario while ignoring certain realities, but it's the CDC, so I guess I should just trust that they know what they're doing.

14
I don't think either of them are attempting to predict the future. They are illustrating what would happen if R would be x, nobody is assuming it will be a steady x for 5 months.

Forgive the stupid question, but what's the point in creating models based on hypotheticals no one expects to happen because they aren't based on reality?

15
Read the link PG shared with these charts, and you’ll see how many assumptions there are and those are only some of the variables at play. Basically all we can do is model based on assumptions, predicting with any degree of certainly is impossible.

One thing that’s true is that the more and sooner we vaccinate the bigger likelihood there’ll either be no further waves or they’ll be smaller.

I read it, and it's the reason I'm not buying it. I completely understand that models are speculative and a number of variables can totally change everything. I just don't like the variables they're ignoring. The models assume a steady R value, when they rarely stay the same. Model A is already wrong, based on where we currently are, but Model B assumes a smaller current prevalence of the more transmittable strains, leading to a flatline where there will likely be growth.

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