Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 79546 times)

Offline Moshe123

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Sep 2012
  • Posts: 5225
  • Total likes: 326
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Spring Valley
  • Programs: Lost
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1140 on: April 18, 2021, 04:09:35 PM »
Not going anywhere

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 13475
  • Total likes: 1636
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1141 on: April 18, 2021, 05:15:10 PM »
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/politics/shas-proposes-new-law-allowing-direct-election-for-prime-minister/2021/04/18/

Not sure if this a smoke screen, or if this for real.
There are definitely 52 yay votes so it depends on Bennet & Abbas, who might support it. But the question is, what will it change?

Bibbi will for sure win, will that be enough of a ladder for Saar, Gantz, or defectors to sit with him? They could just as well do it without the special election (especially as it becomes imminent), and if that is their intention, they'll do it beforehand while their negotiating hand is stronger. On the other hand, even after Bibbi wins a special election, Saar & Gantz can't be forced to support Bibbi, and can force another round...

The main reason Bibbi is pushing for this legislation is because it will oust Gantz from his November rotation and buy Bibbi more time by closing the door on a potential Bennet/Lapid cabinet.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 20K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 24790
  • Total likes: 2506
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 75
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1142 on: April 18, 2021, 09:34:53 PM »


Thanks for resharing. I’m far from a Zionist but that message was very moving.

Offline Deal Guy

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Apr 2009
  • Posts: 4685
  • Total likes: 51
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 9
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1143 on: April 19, 2021, 01:45:50 AM »
There are definitely 52 yay votes so it depends on Bennet & Abbas, who might support it. But the question is, what will it change?

Bibbi will for sure win, will that be enough of a ladder for Saar, Gantz, or defectors to sit with him? They could just as well do it without the special election (especially as it becomes imminent), and if that is their intention, they'll do it beforehand while their negotiating hand is stronger. On the other hand, even after Bibbi wins a special election, Saar & Gantz can't be forced to support Bibbi, and can force another round...

The main reason Bibbi is pushing for this legislation is because it will oust Gantz from his November rotation and buy Bibbi more time by closing the door on a potential Bennet/Lapid cabinet.
Why is it a sure thing that Bibi wins?
The way I see it, Likud (and Bibi)  got 30 seats. That's 25%.
Yes gimmel and shas are worth 15%, but if it's not an election for actual gimmel people, many chareidim won't vote.
The anti bibi, who want him replaced, voted for gantz, lapid, Saar, meretz ect, and would come out in their same numbers just to dispose of bibi, since that's what unites them.
So if they can unite around just 1 center, or center right candidate, I can see them beating him, since many of Bibi's Natural partners, aren't exactly dying to make him win.
The anti bibi vote is much more united. They can be right or left. The only thing that matters is bye bye bibi.

Offline zh cohen

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 1044
  • Total likes: 711
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Brooklyn
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1144 on: April 19, 2021, 02:07:05 AM »

So if they can unite around just 1 center, or center right candidate,

That "if" is doing a lot of work in this post.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 13475
  • Total likes: 1636
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1145 on: April 19, 2021, 06:22:00 AM »
Why is it a sure thing that Bibi wins?
The way I see it, Likud (and Bibi)  got 30 seats. That's 25%.
Yes gimmel and shas are worth 15%, but if it's not an election for actual gimmel people, many chareidim won't vote.
The anti bibi, who want him replaced, voted for gantz, lapid, Saar, meretz ect, and would come out in their same numbers just to dispose of bibi, since that's what unites them.
So if they can unite around just 1 center, or center right candidate, I can see them beating him, since many of Bibi's Natural partners, aren't exactly dying to make him win.
The anti bibi vote is much more united. They can be right or left. The only thing that matters is bye bye bibi.
Lapid is very unpopular and there is no other potential leader.

Gimmel & Shas voters are more politically engaged than the left and are more likely to turn out, not less.

A large portion of Arab party voters support Bibbi, possibly even a majority. Certainly almost all of them would rather Bibbi than Bennet.

The legislation also adds 12 parliament seats regardless of the new election (distributing them amongst all parties according to size.). I'm too lazy to do the math but my guess is it turns the Bibbi minority bloc of 59 into an even bloc.

״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline chff

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2012
  • Posts: 4920
  • Total likes: 223
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 24
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
  • Programs: All of them...
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1146 on: April 19, 2021, 10:13:09 AM »

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 59590
  • Total likes: 6928
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA Global Services, AA Lifetime Plat, DL Dirt, SPG Plat, Hyatt Diamond, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, Hilton Diamond, Priority Club Plat, Avis Chairman, National EE, Hertz PC
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1147 on: April 19, 2021, 10:41:44 AM »
I've been saying this for years...


I'm no expert, but is it time to switch to directly electing a PM and a party separately?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline Moshe123

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Sep 2012
  • Posts: 5225
  • Total likes: 326
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Spring Valley
  • Programs: Lost
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1148 on: April 19, 2021, 04:20:29 PM »
Netanyahu failed. Time to resign and let someone else from Likud form a government.

Offline Ergel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 12587
  • Total likes: 741
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1149 on: April 19, 2021, 04:28:17 PM »
Wow, who would've thunk that Mansour Abbas would be Netanyahu's downfall
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 13475
  • Total likes: 1636
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1150 on: April 19, 2021, 05:25:52 PM »
I've been saying this for years...
The proposed law doesn't really accomplish that, even if Bibbi wins the special runoff he still needs to form a government with a majority of kennset vote within 90 days, and it's very possible Saar/Gantz et al will just be more entrenched in their position not to support him.

Wow, who would've thunk that Mansour Abbas would be Netanyahu's downfall
Definitely a slap in the face, but Abbas is still not anti Bibbi, or they would replace Yariv Levin which would hurt the Likud much more.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 13475
  • Total likes: 1636
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1151 on: April 19, 2021, 05:47:36 PM »

It's looking like the Likud rehotric is shifting to portray that Bibbi is helpless and a Lapid-Bennet government is a done deal, in effort for people to  internalize that possibility and be more motivated to work against it, as was suggested by this account (that is believed to be somebody in Bibbi's inner orbit).


« Last Edit: April 19, 2021, 06:39:18 PM by PlatinumGuy »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Jellybelly

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Aug 2016
  • Posts: 889
  • Total likes: 652
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1152 on: April 19, 2021, 07:42:37 PM »
Netanyahu failed. Time to resign and let someone else from Likud form a government.
The only prob is, it’s hard to tell the most popular politician in the country to resign

Offline Ergel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 12587
  • Total likes: 741
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1153 on: April 20, 2021, 02:08:58 AM »
The only prob is, it’s hard to tell the most powerful politician in the country to resign
FTFY
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 13475
  • Total likes: 1636
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1154 on: April 21, 2021, 05:10:46 PM »
Bibbi is trying to flush Bennet out into acknowledging he can't form a gov't with Lapid, which Bibbi hopes will help win over support from Saar/Gantz/Michaeli/defectors for a Bibbi gov't, or at least for direct elections or earlier regular elections without giving Lapid or Bennet a shot at the mandate.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים