Bibbi has 3 potential outs
1. Defectors. Only 1 is needed if the whole JAL votes against, and a few are needed if some of the JAL abstain, which seems possible
2. Gantz. As it stands, Gantz likely automatically becomes PM in November. He has a lot to lose from a Bennet government that marginalizes him, but there is only so much he is willing to do to blunt it. He is still being very demanding to Lapid, while most of the other parties already closed.
3. United Arab List (Ra’am). Lapid needs the 4 UAL votes. It is well known Mansour Abbas prefers Bibbi, and he is only supporting Lapid because the resurfacing of the Palestinian issue drove his electorate away from his pro Israel party, and he’s afraid of not passing the entrance threshold in the next elections. Bibbi can solve that by attaching UAL to the Likud in a technical block, but that seems to be a move too extreme even for Netanyahu and/or Abbas.
I think there’s a law about that. If one leaves the party than Bennett picks a replacement but of a few leave then they can start their own party.
A single MK can vote against party lines (obviously) the difference is that they are penalized for it - cannot be appointed Minister, lose governmental campaign funding, and the ability to run for the next Kennset in certain configurations.
The key difference here is that Bibbi needs at least 3 Yamina defectors to be able to lure them with a prize such as placement in the Likud party or ministerial appointments
Orly Levi defected alone last time.
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