Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 103855 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #340 on: September 19, 2019, 09:17:44 AM »
I love trying to explain to colleagues that even though the election is over - it's far from over
So no majority means yet another election? WOW could you imagine if we had that here? We would run out of Kool-Aid.  :)
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Offline gingyguy

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #341 on: September 19, 2019, 09:20:13 AM »
So no majority means yet another election? WOW could you imagine if we had that here? We would run out of Kool-Aid.  :)
Pretty much the only other option is a unity government with netanyahu and gantz
May you slide down the banister of happiness & get many splinters of success up your career.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #342 on: September 19, 2019, 09:21:26 AM »
Pretty much the only other option is a unity government with netanyahu and gantz
Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Boruch Parnes

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #343 on: September 19, 2019, 09:21:34 AM »
Is lieberman going to say gantz should be PM?
or is he not going to say anyone?

Offline gingyguy

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #344 on: September 19, 2019, 09:23:25 AM »
Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?
netanyahu is right  gantz is center left . only question is which other parties will also get involved
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Offline dealfinder11

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #345 on: September 19, 2019, 09:40:06 AM »

Offline stooges44

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Offline Yonah

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #347 on: September 19, 2019, 10:59:06 AM »
So no majority means yet another election? WOW could you imagine if we had that here? We would run out of Kool-Aid.  :)

Not quite - essentially the President of the country will recommend to one of the two candidates to form a government - for a bunch of reasons, it's likely that he will turn to Bibi to do that - so he has a few weeks to broker a deal.

Can you explain in terms of our left, right and center? Who is who?

That's definitely complicated, but on a very simplistic level (I'm sure many will argue with these points):

The Right:
Likud - Bibi's party, the 'standard' right-wing party. Politically conservative, and religiously neutral/right leaning.
Shas - Sefardic Religious party - politically right, religiously right. Primary leadership and constituents are jews from Africa/France/Middle East Descent
UTJ (United Torah Judaism) - politically right, religiously right. Primary leadership and constituents are jews from Central/Northern European and American Descent
Yemina - a smaller politically right and religiously right-leaning party who's leaders (Shaked and Bennett) broke away from Likud

The "Center":
Blue and White - led by Gantz. This is a coalition of 3 parties, including the centrist Yesh Atid

Jewish Home - Lieberman's party - they are politically conservative, but somewhat anti-religious (for example, they are in favor of ending the draft exemptions for Charedim, but toe a hard line on the Palestinians, Iran, etc.) They are the outlier, because he politically disagrees with the left, and religiously with the right.

The Left (All politically left, and most are (at least) left-leaning when it comes to religion)
Joint Arab List - This is 4 smaller parties that generally represent that arab population and have Israeli Arab members of knesset. (Israeli Arab = Muslim or Christian Arabs that live within the 1967 borders and have full citizenship).
Labor - The party of Shimon Peres and Yitzchak Rabin, that's fallen off of the map. The old guard Israeli Left
Democratic Camp  - A coalition of parties that are the old-school Israeli "Extreme Left" - including Meretz.






[/quote]

Offline shwarmabob

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #348 on: September 19, 2019, 11:18:15 AM »
Shas - Sefardic Religious party - politically right, religiously right. Primary leadership and constituents are jews from Africa/France/Middle East Descent
minor correction: Shas played a central role in passing the Oslo Accords, so I wouldn't call them right wing. They will go with whoever will give them some silver and postpone their periodic jail stints.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #349 on: September 19, 2019, 11:21:31 AM »
minor correction: Shas played a central role in passing the Oslo Accords, so I wouldn't call them right wing. They will go with whoever will give them some silver and postpone their periodic jail stints.

Though most of their voters are right wing. And they clearly positioned themselves as right wing for election purposes.
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Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #350 on: September 19, 2019, 12:06:02 PM »
Netanyahu signed an agreement with Yamina, Shas, UTJ to only negotiate as a block. Now he's calling for you a unity goverment with Gantz, that conveniently Netanyahu will lead (as his block now has 55, in the purely theoretical sense).
Gantz responded that this is political spin and Netanyahu has decided to go to 3rd elections and is trying to (more accurately, has successfully) shift the blame on B&W

So...basically Bibi has Gantz by the you know where
Either Right + B&W with Bibi as PM
Or Gantz + labor + barak + Arabs + Liberman

Or...Round 3 (most likely)

Who's surprised that the seasoned Bibi has outflanked the newcomer in Gantz
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Offline Dan

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #351 on: September 19, 2019, 12:26:00 PM »
Netanyahu signed an agreement with Yamina, Shas, UTJ to only negotiate as a block. Now he's calling for you a unity goverment with Gantz, that conveniently Netanyahu will lead (as his block now has 55, in the purely theoretical sense).
Gantz responded that this is political spin and Netanyahu has decided to go to 3rd elections and is trying to (more accurately, has successfully) shift the blame on B&W

So...basically Bibi has Gantz by the you know where
Either Right + B&W with Bibi as PM
Or Gantz + labor + barak + Arabs + Liberman

Or...Round 3 (most likely)

Who's surprised that the seasoned Bibi has outflanked the newcomer in Gantz

How would round 3 produce results that aren't deadlocked?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #352 on: September 19, 2019, 12:31:14 PM »
Either
1. Everyone blames <insert politician here> for going to 3rd elections and punishes him for that
2. They raise the threshold to 5% (though I'm not sure that would really make a difference)
3. Bibi gets indicted
4. There is tremendous apathy from all sectors other than the chareidim who win a straight majority and install a medinat halacha
5. It won't, but at least people get an extra day at the beach
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline Yonah

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #353 on: September 19, 2019, 12:42:03 PM »
How would round 3 produce results that aren't deadlocked?

What's the definition of insanity again? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results? :)

I don't think anyone wants a third election, but everyone is being stubborn.

I think logically, Bibi's best bet is to work with one of Gantz/Lapid/Ya'alon to split Blue and White, and take their seats to his coalition, but I don't think any of them want to do that. I also don't know the Israeli system well enough to know if that's even possible - is it?




Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #354 on: September 19, 2019, 12:44:08 PM »
It's technically possible. Though I don't think very likely. One hates Bibi more than the next. And what could he possibly offer them
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #355 on: September 19, 2019, 12:46:58 PM »
Netanyahu signed an agreement with Yamina, Shas, UTJ to only negotiate as a block. Now he's calling for you a unity goverment with Gantz, that conveniently Netanyahu will lead (as his block now has 55, in the purely theoretical sense).
Gantz responded that this is political spin and Netanyahu has decided to go to 3rd elections and is trying to (more accurately, has successfully) shift the blame on B&W

So...basically Bibi has Gantz by the you know where
Either Right + B&W with Bibi as PM
Or Gantz + labor + barak + Arabs + Liberman

Or...Round 3 (most likely)

Who's surprised that the seasoned Bibi has outflanked the newcomer in Gantz

We need to wait for final results (and possibly for Bibi's hearing).

Right now it looks like B&W has 2 more seats than Likud, as does the "Center-Left" vs "Right", which creates the perception that Gantz should be the leader. If Bibi's camp stands strong and united, Gantz has no path to form a government without Bibi's camp. Possible scenario: President gives Gantz first chance, he tries and tries and fails. In the interim, Bibi has his hearing, and the indictment is cancelled, that opens up more possibilities. However, even in such a scenario, Netanyahu will be viewed unfavorably (though there's an overwhelming majority that seems to agree that he's more fit for the job).

Another possible scenario: Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing. However, this scenario will have to eliminate people or positions that are hardline and exclusive. i.e. Lapid.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #356 on: September 19, 2019, 12:48:45 PM »
None of this mess is unprecedented in parliamentary systems. Just look at recent history Greece, Belgium, Italy and possibly others (look at what's going on in the UK, the oldest parliamentary system out there).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Yonah

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #357 on: September 19, 2019, 12:49:54 PM »
It's technically possible. Though I don't think very likely. One hates Bibi more than the next. And what could he possibly offer them

Reminiscent of the old Golda Meir Line:
"We'll only a have a government when Lieberman or Gantz loves being in power more than they hate Bibi"

Completely unrelated. I read an article the other day on Globes (which unfortunately I can't seem to find) which was interviewing a Cafe owner about election day. He pointed out that even though he gets more customers than he would on a normal weekday, the traffic inflow doesn't make up for the double-time he needs to pay his employees for working on a holiday. So each election day he's operating at a loss.

Offline Yonah

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #358 on: September 19, 2019, 12:54:21 PM »
We need to wait for final results (and possibly for Bibi's hearing).

Right now it looks like B&W has 2 more seats than Likud, as does the "Center-Left" vs "Right", which creates the perception that Gantz should be the leader. If Bibi's camp stands strong and united, Gantz has no path to form a government without Bibi's camp. Possible scenario: President gives Gantz first chance, he tries and tries and fails. In the interim, Bibi has his hearing, and the indictment is cancelled, that opens up more possibilities. However, even in such a scenario, Netanyahu will be viewed unfavorably (though there's an overwhelming majority that seems to agree that he's more fit for the job).

Another possible scenario: Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing. However, this scenario will have to eliminate people or positions that are hardline and exclusive. i.e. Lapid.

That's a great analysis @ExGingi

I imagine (like you suggest) for a unity govt. to exist, it will either need to exclude some of Bibi's current 55, or have non-starters - for example, the ending the draft exemption is a non-starter. If Bibi shares the PM with Gantz, it will either be post his accquital, or extend him non-prosecution until the government is re-done.

One other weird but plausible solution:
- Bibi negotiates a national unity government, where he is PM for the first 18-24 months. And then 1 month before the switch, he gets enough people to vote no-confidence and has another election - of course he spends those 18 months moving people around to different parties so we don't have this again.

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #359 on: September 19, 2019, 03:58:46 PM »
We need to wait for final results (and possibly for Bibi's hearing).

Right now it looks like B&W has 2 more seats than Likud, as does the "Center-Left" vs "Right", which creates the perception that Gantz should be the leader. If Bibi's camp stands strong and united, Gantz has no path to form a government without Bibi's camp. Possible scenario: President gives Gantz first chance, he tries and tries and fails. In the interim, Bibi has his hearing, and the indictment is cancelled, that opens up more possibilities. However, even in such a scenario, Netanyahu will be viewed unfavorably (though there's an overwhelming majority that seems to agree that he's more fit for the job).

Another possible scenario: Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing. However, this scenario will have to eliminate people or positions that are hardline and exclusive. i.e. Lapid.
I see no way that Rivlin tasks Gantz with creating a coalition if he has no path to creating one
There is no way Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing - one guy has to be the prime minister. If it's just Likud and B&W, there is no way Bibi is the PM, he has less mandates. And there is NO way that Bibi sits under Gantz
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.