Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 101821 times)

Offline stooges44

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #360 on: September 19, 2019, 04:30:18 PM »


I need to point out a basic fact about the election results which the US media, in particular, is missing.

Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו did not lose and בני גנץ - Benny Gantz didn't win. Gantz cannot form a government under any circumstances. He cannot build a majority coalition.

By forming a unified political bloc of 55 Knesset members with the Likud's satellite parties, Netanyahu has created a situation where he is the only possible prime minister. Either the Blue and White Party -- or one of its factions -- joins him, or Amir Peretz and Orly Levy bring the Labor party in, or Israel goes to new elections. Those are the only options.

In other words, it's either going to be Netanyahu or elections. It's up to Gantz, and Peretz.

I'll say more. The balance of power is still very much on the Right. The Right has 55 seats. The Left has 44. Liberman is nothing but a Bibi hater. And the Arab parties are so extreme that they cannot be considered for any governing coalition.

A word about the exclusion of the Arab party from the coalition math.

Lest anyone be tempted to believe the Washington Post's attempt to claim Israel is racist because Israelis don't want to share power with the Arab parties, the fact is that there is not one Arab party that accepts Israel's right to exist. There were Arab politicians elected yesterday that have written odes to terrorist murderers on the Facebook pages. Arab lawmakers were elected that have met with terror kingpins. Arab lawmakers routinely support the Palestinian war against Israel and express support for Hamas.

It is not racist for Israelis not to want Hamas supporters and champions of terrorist murderers in the Israeli government or receiving security briefings from the military and intelligence services. It is rational.

The deadlock in Israel is electoral, not ideological. Liberman's defection from the Right has denied it a governing majority. But it is still very much the majority in Israel. And the vast majority of Jewish lawmakers in the Knesset support applying Israeli law over the Jordan Valley as Netanyahu suggested. A large majority (55-44) of Jewish lawmakers also support applying Israeli law to other parts of Judea and Samaria.

Netanyahu is the only person capable of forming a government. It remains to be seen if that will happen, but Gantz cannot form a government. And he is slowly coming to terms with this unalterable reality.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #361 on: September 19, 2019, 05:02:20 PM »


I'll say more. The balance of power is still very much on the Right. The Right has 55 seats.

The truth is that the "real" left (at least when it comes to Foreign policy) has a grand total of 11 seats (or 24 if you count the Arab).

This wasn't a Left vs Right election, it was a Pro Bibi vs Anti and Pro-Yiddishkeit vs Anti election.

 If one thing is clear from this election, it's that the two state solution is dead...

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #362 on: September 19, 2019, 05:10:12 PM »
@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #363 on: September 19, 2019, 05:49:37 PM »
@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater an ambitious opporunist extraordinaire!

FTFY
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline stooges44

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #364 on: September 19, 2019, 06:27:29 PM »
@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater

You do know I just c/p what she said, I did that because most don't have fb.
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Offline chevron

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #365 on: September 19, 2019, 08:22:36 PM »
Leftover pact only works of both sides of the pact get in. Bigger question is why they couldn't create a unified front/bloc like the Arabs did!?


רבי יוסי ממלחיא ורבי יהושע דסכנין בשם רבי לוי אמרו: מצינו תינוקות בימי דוד, עד שלא טעמו טעם חטא - היו יודעין לדרוש את התורה מ"ט פנים טמא ומ"ט פנים טהור, והוה דוד מצלי עליהון. הדא הוא שדוד אומר 'אתה ה' תשמרם' - אתה ה' נטר אורייתהון בלבהון. 'תנצרם מן הדור זו לעולם' - מן הדור ההוא שהוא חייב כליה.

אחר כל השבח הזה, יוצאין למלחמה ונופלין?!

אלא ע"י שהיו בהם דלטורין היו נופלין.

....

אבל דורו של אחאב - כולן עובדי עבודת כוכבים היו, ועל ידי שלא היו בהן דילטורין - היו יוצאין למלחמה ונוצחין.

yamina is not vry loved on the right. They are fool of a$$ kissers and spineless cowards.. still, better than wasting even 3 seats

Offline CountValentine

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #366 on: September 19, 2019, 09:01:20 PM »
They are fool of a$$ kissers and spineless cowards..
It is hard to keep these threads separate with so much in common.  :)
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Definitions

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #367 on: September 19, 2019, 10:14:26 PM »
I don't know the Israeli election process. Assuming a government can't be formed whatever that means. What exactly do they think will change with the new elections? Will people change what they originally voted for?

Offline Yammer

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #368 on: September 19, 2019, 10:57:51 PM »


1. Do we really think that a neutered Labor would go into a coalition with Bibi?
2. If this happens, I suspect that one (or both) of these two things happens - a) Bibi's coalition deal will preclude him from being prosecuted even while he's not PM b) He'll get the first 1.5-2 years, and then 1 or 2 months shy find a way to force a new election

Lieberman is in a weird position... what is the lesser of two evils for him - joining with Bibi or joining with the Arab List? If Gantz/Bibi want full control, they need to make a deal with him. But he himself is pushing for a Unity Government, which pretty much Gantz and Bibi can do on their own, and show him the door.

Or Bibi gets indicted and Ganz is PM...

Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?

Impossible for the Arabs to sit in a Govt. First attack on Gaza and they threaten to bolt.

so will the arabs as they also have a high birthrate

They won't be part of Israel...your forgetting Trump's Deal of the Century...

BTDT.

Peretz has history.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amir_Peretz

The only thing that changed is his shaving off his mustache.

This is how I see the playbook potentially unfolding:

Mandelblit holds hearing with Netanyahu, following which it is determined that there aren't sufficient grounds for an indictment, which gives a whole bunch of people (primary amongst them Peretz & Co) an explanation as to why they will join Netanyahu, as they said they won't join him as long as there's a pending indictment. Once there's no pending indictment, they can join.

This might also signal the breakup and demise of B&W whose sole raison d'Ítre is anti Bibi (ostensibly due to corruption).

Or he gets indicted.

Why does everyone seem to think that he's innocent? Israel has quite a history with indicting the highest officials

How would round 3 produce results that aren't deadlocked?

I think there will be quite a few changes as ppl are exasperated. Less smaller parties and more mergers, so votes don't get lost.

I see no way that Rivlin tasks Gantz with creating a coalition if he has no path to creating one
There is no way Gantz and Bibi agree on some kind of unity power sharing - one guy has to be the prime minister. If it's just Likud and B&W, there is no way Bibi is the PM, he has less mandates. And there is NO way that Bibi sits under Gantz

Disagree.

Rivlin needs to prove that he's unbiased. He gives Ganz a shot ( which he thinks that he will fail ) and only then is there actually a chance that Ganz caves in to Bibi.

@stooges44 spot on, except for the part that Lieberman is nothing more than a Bibi hater. He's also a religion hater

I actually didn't understand how his supporters stand for his hatred to Charedim instead of using his position to maximize for them ( could've gotten literally everything) . But I've come to understand that they have issues with Gerus/Marriage etc. That's a real cause to his base to support him.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #369 on: September 19, 2019, 11:23:28 PM »
Why does everyone seem to think that he's innocent? Israel has quite a history with indicting the highest officials

Because Bibi is smarter than that. And the allegations are nonsense. If Bibi should be indicted, Lapid did much worse.

 


Rivlin needs to prove that he's unbiased. He gives Ganz a shot ( which he thinks that he will fail ) and only then is there actually a chance that Ganz caves in to Bibi.
Rivlin and Netanyahu are old foes. No one suspects Rivlin of any favoritism towards Netanyahu. As a matter of fact, while in the Knesset he was considered a right wing hawk. As soon as he became president, he began pandering to the left wing.

I actually didn't understand how his supporters stand for his hatred to Charedim instead of using his position to maximize for them ( could've gotten literally everything) . But I've come to understand that they have issues with Gerus/Marriage etc. That's a real cause to his base to support him.

Lieberman doesn't hate Charedim. For years Deri was one of his best buddies. He is a shrewd opportunist who identified a wave he could ride.
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Offline ilherman

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #370 on: September 19, 2019, 11:52:34 PM »
Am I crazy for believing that the only option besides going for round 3 is right wing + labor?

Yes it will have to go through very complicated negotiations but at the end they will figure it out.

And if you're worried how long such government can hold, it can't, but what will happen is, blue and white while being in the minority since Gantz and Lapid have 0 in common besides trying to being down Netanyahu, once they sit in the minority and their task of bringing down Netanyahu is over they will kill each other and the party will become broken and some center rights will jump over to the right wing and keep the government alive.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #371 on: September 20, 2019, 12:28:40 AM »
Am I crazy for believing that the only option besides going for round 3 is right wing + labor?

Yes it will have to go through very complicated negotiations but at the end they will figure it out.

And if you're worried how long such government can hold, it can't, but what will happen is, blue and white while being in the minority since Gantz and Lapid have 0 in common besides trying to being down Netanyahu, once they sit in the minority and their task of bringing down Netanyahu is over they will kill each other and the party will become broken and some center rights will jump over to the right wing and keep the government alive.

Has been said before in different words.

https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1032674

I guess I am not the only one that thinks so.

However, the game board is a little different at this stage.

Netanyahu can simply wait it out, allowing Gantz to make a fool of himself a second time around (first time was in April), trying to no avail to form a government. In the interim Mandelblit holds the hearing and the threat of indictment is dropped, and all of the sudden the game board looks different yet again, but this time giving an advantage to Netanyahu.

BTW, all along Netanyahu is still the transitional PM.
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Offline Yammer

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #372 on: September 20, 2019, 12:31:10 AM »
Because Bibi is smarter than that. And the allegations are nonsense. If Bibi should be indicted, Lapid did much worse.

Rivlin and Netanyahu are old foes. No one suspects Rivlin of any favoritism towards Netanyahu. As a matter of fact, while in the Knesset he was considered a right wing hawk. As soon as he became president, he began pandering to the left wing.

Lieberman doesn't hate Charedim. For years Deri was one of his best buddies. He is a shrewd opportunist who identified a wave he could ride.

1. They can indict him even if it wasn't a crime....
2. Correct. Still might want to prove it.
3. About Leiberman. Not disagreeing. He's obviously an opportunist. But as an opportunist he would've taken a deal now and gotten everything from Bibi, instead of squatting it for Bibi/Charaidy bashing. Imagine UTJ/Shas in that position and they would squat such an opportunity. The community would have been fuming for not squeezing out concessions. He therefore picked a battle with Charaidim that resonates with his base.


Offline Jellybelly

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #373 on: September 20, 2019, 01:22:20 AM »
Iím not saying i personally favor this idea, but is it an option to somehow skip over Netanyahu and go to the number 2 in Likud? Than Leiberman would agree to be in the coalition... i think Leiberman is dying for that to happen, because this whole mess was caused by Lieberman trying to end Netanyahuís career.
how would such a thing work? Would the Likud have to have internal elections? Could Rivlin on his own decide to give it to the number 2 in likud and skip over Netanyahu?

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #374 on: September 20, 2019, 01:26:58 AM »
Iím not saying i personally favor this idea, but is it an option to somehow skip over Netanyahu and go to the number 2 in Likud? Than Leiberman would agree to be in the coalition... i think Leiberman is dying for that to happen, because this whole mess was caused by Lieberman trying to end Netanyahuís career.
how would such a thing work? Would the Likud have to have internal elections? Could Rivlin on his own decide to give it to the number 2 in likud and skip over Netanyahu?
This ain't happening.

Technically Rivlin can assign the task of forming a govern to any MK. If he did something like this on his own, it would be a legitimate reason for a bona fide coup.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Jellybelly

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #375 on: September 20, 2019, 01:29:46 AM »
This ain't happening.

Technically Rivlin can assign the task of forming a govern to any MK. If he did something like this on his own, it would be a legitimate reason for a bona fide coup.
Why not? It might be the only way to break to prevent another election

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #376 on: September 20, 2019, 01:43:38 AM »
Why not? It might be the only way to break to prevent another election

For the same reason the electoral college wouldn't elect someone other than what the general election indicated in the US.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #377 on: September 20, 2019, 03:08:39 AM »
FTFY
Am opportunist has to have an end game to cash in his chips. He doesn't seem interested
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Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #378 on: September 20, 2019, 03:09:39 AM »
This ain't happening.

Technically Rivlin can assign the task of forming a govern to any MK. If he did something like this on his own, it would be a legitimate reason for a bona fide coup.
Would only happen if it came from likud. And like @ExGingi said, that ain't happening
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #379 on: September 20, 2019, 08:39:44 AM »
« Last Edit: September 20, 2019, 09:04:00 AM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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