Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 102503 times)

Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #40 on: April 09, 2019, 01:09:17 PM »
Thanks - it looks like 'Gevalt' is the theme of the day - https://www.makorrishon.co.il/%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%AA%D7%A9%D7%A2%D7%98/129735/


;D

Quote
19:00 – מה זה בכלל געוואלד? זמן טוב לברר.

קודם כל, בעברית אפשר לכתוב "גוואלד", או כמו ביידיש – געוואלד. בשום אופן לא "גוועלד" או צורה אחרת שבה העי"ן נמצאת אחרי הו"וים.
המילה מקורה ביידיש, ואליה היא הגיעה מהגרמנית: המילה Gewalt פירושה "כוח", "אלימות", "שליטה ו"סמכות", וכך בצירופים כמו:
Naturgewalt – כוח טבע
Häusliche Gewalt – אלימות ביתית (דהיינו, בין בני זוג, ובדרך כלל מה שמכונה בעברית אלימות נגד נשים)
Staatsgewalt – סמכות המדינה, שליטת המדינה
אז איך הגענו מ"כוח" ל"געוואלד" שמשמעותו קריאה לעזרה? כמו דברים אחרים ביהדות, דרך אלוהים. ככל הנראה, יהודים דוברי יידיש נהגו לקרוא לכוח עליון, או ביקשו כוח מהאל, בעת צרה. הם זעקו "אוי, געוואלד", שפירושו מעין "תן לי כוח", וכשנשכחה המשמעות המקורית של המילה – נותרה רק המשמעות המשנית, של קריאה לעזרה ולהצלה.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ilherman

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #41 on: April 09, 2019, 01:19:00 PM »
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.
I don't think so. It might be tight. I believe Bibi will pull it off.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline ilherman

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #42 on: April 09, 2019, 01:21:07 PM »
 When can we expect to see results? Where is the best place to watch live results come in?
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline Proisrael

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #43 on: April 09, 2019, 01:25:34 PM »
When can we expect to see results? Where is the best place to watch live results come in?

Polls close at 10PM (3PM EST) results should start trickling in right away but by midnight they usually have an idea and by Israel morning time it usually is official. I24 news is probably best (you need to make an account with a CC)

Offline Yonah

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #44 on: April 09, 2019, 01:44:58 PM »
I don't think so. It might be tight. I believe Bibi will pull it off.

I think Bibi will lose to Gantz in seats, but is more likely to pull of the coalition - the golden question is - who are his bedfellows?

Offline Proisrael

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #45 on: April 09, 2019, 01:55:49 PM »
I think Bibi will lose to Gantz in seats, but is more likely to pull of the coalition - the golden question is - who are his bedfellows?

That is almost a guarantee the only question we need to ask is if Bibi goes into bed with Gantz to make a coalition...

Offline Yonah

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #46 on: April 09, 2019, 01:57:34 PM »
This is an interesting Analysis - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-election-threshold-could-determine-next-prime-minister-1001281549

Here is what I am not clear on - let's say 4 parties get 2.5% each but fail to clear 3.25. That's about 10% of the vote, or 12 seats worth. How do those twelve get allocated - do they just ignore the 10% as if they didn't vote, and then split it among the other 90% proportionally (i.e. if Bibi gets 25% of the total vote, he should get 30 seats, but now his 25/100% = 27.7/90% he gets 33?)



 


Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #47 on: April 09, 2019, 02:03:11 PM »
This is an interesting Analysis - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-election-threshold-could-determine-next-prime-minister-1001281549

Here is what I am not clear on - let's say 4 parties get 2.5% each but fail to clear 3.25. That's about 10% of the vote, or 12 seats worth. How do those twelve get allocated - do they just ignore the 10% as if they didn't vote, and then split it among the other 90% proportionally (i.e. if Bibi gets 25% of the total vote, he should get 30 seats, but now his 25/100% = 27.7/90% he gets 33?)

You are correct in your understanding, which is why people say not to vote for parties close to the threshold, as those votes might just end up being wasted. This is where Israeli electoral math comes into play.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #48 on: April 09, 2019, 02:17:28 PM »
IMHO the biggest surprise of this election is how fast Gantz learned and transformed himself.

Compare his first speech, where any animation was obviously difficult for him and scripted, to how animated he seems to be now when he talks.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Proisrael

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #50 on: April 09, 2019, 02:40:53 PM »
Hashem Yerachim!

Report:Preliminary count of samples brings defeat to the right-wing

Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #51 on: April 09, 2019, 03:09:02 PM »
Channel 11 saying Netanyahu has 64 seat potential coalition. (That's assuming Bennet is out).





« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 04:22:59 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #52 on: April 09, 2019, 03:31:11 PM »
Will we see a repeat of what we saw in the 2016 US elections?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #53 on: April 09, 2019, 03:44:10 PM »
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

Based on exit polls, will we see someone joining @ChaimMoskowitz for a feast of Crow?
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 03:47:17 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline gingyguy

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #54 on: April 09, 2019, 03:55:14 PM »
Based on exit polls, will we see someone joining @ChaimMoskowitz for a feast of Crow?
so that's where he is!
May you slide down the banister of happiness & get many splinters of success up your career.

Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #55 on: April 09, 2019, 04:02:29 PM »
Also to be noted that nothing is final until the votes of the soldiers are counted, so we are days away from final results, especially with parties very close, and on either side of the minimum threshold.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #56 on: April 09, 2019, 04:28:10 PM »
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.

Here's my prediction - Nir Barkat is being groomed to take Netanyahu's place after Netanyahu retires.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ~King Lake~

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #57 on: April 09, 2019, 04:31:13 PM »
Gantz is Prime minister until 1 am
lapid until 5 am
and bibi is from the morning for 4 years
 ;) ;)
I'm going crazy, wanna come along?

Offline ilherman

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #58 on: April 09, 2019, 04:43:18 PM »
Hashem Yerachim!

Report:Preliminary count of samples brings defeat to the right-wing
Reminds me of the 2016 exit polls.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #59 on: April 09, 2019, 04:47:55 PM »
Reminds me of the 2016 exit polls.

Though in the US, Clinton ended up not speaking. Whereas the Israelis already had Peres once crowned by the exit polls as the next PM, hold a victory speech, only to discover that he was unable to form a coalition government.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan