Topic Wiki

Official election website https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/
« Last edited by Abey on September 18, 2019, 01:17:26 AM »

Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019 Israeli election  (Read 26787 times)

Online ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 6206
  • Total likes: 1084
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 7
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #525 on: November 22, 2019, 01:42:58 PM »
Was it circumstantial that the indictments were announced right at the beginning of the 21 days? Or was it intentional to inflict damage on Bibi? (or some other reason?)

According to Bibi both the timing of the initial announcement of an indictment subject to a hearing, as well as the timing of the current post hearing announcement were intentional.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Online shaulyaakov

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2013
  • Posts: 1732
  • Total likes: 116
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #526 on: November 22, 2019, 01:44:50 PM »
According to Bibi both the timing of the initial announcement of an indictment subject to a hearing, as well as the timing of the current post hearing announcement were intentional.
Counter argument - once they knew they were going to indict him, best to do it when there's still a chance to avoid an expensive 3rd election as opposed to waiting until its too late. I think it's only good for the country for this news to be announced as early as possible.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 9916
  • Total likes: 59
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 8
    • View Profile
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #527 on: November 22, 2019, 01:47:54 PM »
Would've done much more damage to Bibbi if announced a week ago.

The AG cannot file the suit in court until a government is formed to approve it. Any lawsuit against a sitting Kenneset member requires the sign off of ועדת הכנסת, which doesn't exist until there's a government.
Purpose > Pleasure

Online shaulyaakov

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2013
  • Posts: 1732
  • Total likes: 116
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #528 on: November 22, 2019, 01:53:25 PM »
B&W plus Lieberman are currently 41. So they only need 20 seats from thr left (11), the right (7) and Likud (32). I think this announcement makes it possible for 20 out of that 50 MK group to come together - less if UTJ pls shas swap out with Lieberman. Remember, the bottom of the Likud list is at risk if there's a new elections and voters move away from Likud over this.

Offline Ergel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 11477
  • Total likes: 89
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
    • View Profile
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #529 on: November 23, 2019, 03:13:22 PM »
Has been said before in different words.

However, the game board is a little different at this stage.

Netanyahu can simply wait it out, allowing Gantz to make a fool of himself a second time around (first time was in April), trying to no avail to form a government. In the interim Mandelblit holds the hearing and the threat of indictment is dropped, and all of the sudden the game board looks different yet again, but this time giving an advantage to Netanyahu.

BTW, all along Netanyahu is still the transitional PM.

I'm still confused why you were so sure that the indictment was going to be dropped
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline Proisrael

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2012
  • Posts: 1044
  • Total likes: 47
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 6
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Krayot,Israel
  • Programs: SPG,Hilton,Club Carlson
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #530 on: November 24, 2019, 08:23:36 AM »
B&W plus Lieberman are currently 41. So they only need 20 seats from thr left (11), the right (7) and Likud (32). I think this announcement makes it possible for 20 out of that 50 MK group to come together - less if UTJ pls shas swap out with Lieberman. Remember, the bottom of the Likud list is at risk if there's a new elections and voters move away from Likud over this.

Voters are not going to move away from Likud, they have no where to go, and especially now that they saw Gantz almost form a Govt with the Arabs they would never go there.

Offline aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 7095
  • Total likes: 1681
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 7
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #531 on: November 24, 2019, 09:40:23 AM »
Voters are not going to move away from Likud, they have no where to go, and especially now that they saw Gantz and Leiberman almost form a Govt with the Arabs they would never go there.
FTFY
You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say can and will be used to start a religious discussion.

Online ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 6206
  • Total likes: 1084
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 7
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #532 on: November 24, 2019, 09:43:07 AM »
Voters are not going to move away from Likud, they have no where to go, and especially now that they saw Gantz almost form a Govt with the Arabs they would never go there.
Nah. Hatred and jealousy towards Netanyahu are stronger than reason. (I also find it hard to believe that there isn't big money coming from George Soros and his ilk funding this fight).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Online ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 6206
  • Total likes: 1084
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 7
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #533 on: November 24, 2019, 06:54:26 PM »
I'm still confused why you were so sure that the indictment was going to be dropped

I don't think I indicated that I was sure that the indictment would be dropped as much as you were sure that it will stand after the hearing. I did give it a high probability of happening and was obviously wrong in my assessment.

Deciding to indict on a case that is very questionable on whether it would prevail at trial, especially when it interferes with a democratic process, isn't the kind of slam dunk that you seem to have indicated when you wrote that the chances of not indicting are infinitesimally small. You might want to listen to the following (assuming you have a good enough command of the Hebrew langauge):

https://youtu.be/fvmId8XUom8
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Online ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 6206
  • Total likes: 1084
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 7
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #534 on: November 24, 2019, 07:14:24 PM »


@Dan Yossi Bailin (of Oslo infamy) explains here what was wrong with direct PM vote.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2019, 09:33:25 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Online ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 6206
  • Total likes: 1084
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 7
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #535 on: November 30, 2019, 06:18:51 PM »
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.

http://www.olam-katan.co.il/כתבות/item/6053-ראיון-אומן
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Deal Guy

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Apr 2009
  • Posts: 4462
  • Total likes: 32
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 9
    • View Profile
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #536 on: December 03, 2019, 02:56:28 PM »
I saw some articles that said that Bibi would be fine in a unity govt, as long as he gets just 4-5 months first, and then hands it over to Gantz.

I don't see a unity gov happening, but would someone care to explain to me, what Bibi has from only 4-5 months? He can sit back, go to 3rd elections, and he has 5 months just like that until then, and if he wins....
On the other hand, once he would give over the reins to Gantz, he is no longer PM, and the can stand trial. So what is in it for him?

Offline Ergel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 11477
  • Total likes: 89
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
    • View Profile
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #537 on: December 04, 2019, 03:58:14 AM »
From what I heard he said 6 months, so he gains like 6 weeks
Still doesn't add up
That's why blue and white say they don't believe him
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline Proisrael

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2012
  • Posts: 1044
  • Total likes: 47
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 6
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Krayot,Israel
  • Programs: SPG,Hilton,Club Carlson
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #538 on: December 04, 2019, 04:37:48 AM »
From what I heard he said 6 months, so he gains like 6 weeks
Still doesn't add up
That's why blue and white say they don't believe him

Based on what I heard, it would leave him enough time to pass through the annexation bills that is needed...

Latest this morning is that YB may actually join the right wing govt and they are starting to blame B&W for the lack of the unity govt...

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 9916
  • Total likes: 59
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 8
    • View Profile
Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #539 on: December 04, 2019, 05:38:45 AM »
I saw some articles that said that Bibi would be fine in a unity govt, as long as he gets just 4-5 months first, and then hands it over to Gantz.

I don't see a unity gov happening, but would someone care to explain to me, what Bibi has from only 4-5 months? He can sit back, go to 3rd elections, and he has 5 months just like that until then, and if he wins....
On the other hand, once he would give over the reins to Gantz, he is no longer PM, and the can stand trial. So what is in it for him?
It's a bluff. But the idea is that the government would break apart after 6 months, as would B&W itself
Purpose > Pleasure