Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 103463 times)

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #600 on: February 17, 2020, 08:55:13 PM »
And rich people funded bibi also. What's your point?

Foreign donors with a strong left wing agenda, that tried very hard to get rid of Netanyahu and fight against Jewish values in 2015. George Soros, Daniel Lubetzky, J Street etc. After that election a law was passed to ban foreign money.
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Offline Proisrael

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #601 on: March 02, 2020, 03:29:26 AM »
Can today be the day Israel will finally be able to form a govt?

I have a strong feeling the right will pull off 63 seats and Bibi will be PM for another bunch of years until the next idiot wants to pull from the govt.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #602 on: March 02, 2020, 07:33:16 AM »
Can today be the day Israel will finally be able to form a govt?

I have a strong feeling the right will pull off 63 seats and Bibi will be PM for another bunch of years until the next idiot wants to pull from the govt.

Bibi can remain interim PM with elections every 6 months for the next few decades.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Online zh cohen

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #603 on: March 02, 2020, 10:25:12 AM »
What does the (relatively) high turnout so far mean? (Aside for making it even more certain that Otzma is not going to cross the threshold)

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #604 on: March 02, 2020, 10:35:27 AM »
What does the (relatively) high turnout so far mean? (Aside for making it even more certain that Otzma is not going to cross the threshold)
I think it is good for gimmel and arab list
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Offline Boruch Parnes

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #605 on: March 02, 2020, 10:43:38 AM »
I think it is good for gimmel and arab list
is it looking like bibi has a chance this round?

Offline Proisrael

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #606 on: March 02, 2020, 10:58:37 AM »
Higher turnout means more seats for the arab party/likud and B&W bad for shas/Gimmel/YB and other smaller parties

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #607 on: March 02, 2020, 10:59:41 AM »
I think it is good for gimmel and arab list
What math would make it good for Gimmel? They traditionally have high voter turnout, so general population high turnout would just dilute them.
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Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #608 on: March 02, 2020, 12:44:07 PM »
What math would make it good for Gimmel? They traditionally have high voter turnout, so general population high turnout would just dilute them.
I think they will have a higher turnout than normal. Just from my local environs, I had a line at the polling station which I've never had before. If the surge is evenly split, than obviously it won't be good for gimmel. But maybe we will see a real surge in gimmel/shas voting that they finally got their people out. Who knows
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline BP16

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #609 on: March 02, 2020, 12:47:08 PM »
I think they will have a higher turnout than normal. Just from my local environs, I had a line at the polling station which I've never had before. If the surge is evenly split, than obviously it won't be good for gimmel. But maybe we will see a real surge in gimmel/shas voting that they finally got their people out. Who knows
What time does the results start coming out?

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #610 on: March 02, 2020, 12:50:26 PM »
What time does the results start coming out?
After polls close (10 PM local time)
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #611 on: March 02, 2020, 12:50:42 PM »
I think they will have a higher turnout than normal. Just from my local environs, I had a line at the polling station which I've never had before. If the surge is evenly split, than obviously it won't be good for gimmel. But maybe we will see a real surge in gimmel/shas voting that they finally got their people out. Who knows

I agree - who knows.

That being said, if Gimmel and Shas (which combined hold around 15-16 seats) traditionally have 70% turnout and they increase to 80%, while major parties (holding around 66-70 seats) traditionally have around 45% and they increase to 55%, while arabs (holding around 12-13 seats) traditionally have around 20% and increase to 30% where's the impact tilted towards? Do your own math.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #612 on: March 02, 2020, 12:52:04 PM »
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/276709
This is interesting, for what it's worth
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #613 on: March 02, 2020, 01:04:49 PM »
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/276709
This is interesting, for what it's worth

Well, that's key. Never waste your time reading negatives about the left wing in a right-wing publication and vice versa.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ilherman

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #614 on: March 02, 2020, 01:10:52 PM »
Whats the percentage of registered Gimel chareidi voters turning out to vote?
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline aygart

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #615 on: March 02, 2020, 01:21:43 PM »
I agree - who knows.

That being said, if Gimmel and Shas (which combined hold around 15-16 seats) traditionally have 70% turnout and they increase to 80%, while major parties (holding around 66-70 seats) traditionally have around 45% and they increase to 55%, while arabs (holding around 12-13 seats) traditionally have around 20% and increase to 30% where's the impact tilted towards? Do your own math.
So arabs would have a 50% increase in trunout while major parties have a 20% increase and chareidi have a 12% increase? (I know these don't match exactly to your example but are a very rough estimate) Why would we make such an assumption and what does this have to do with his statement?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #616 on: March 02, 2020, 02:09:44 PM »
Well, that's key. Never waste your time reading negatives about the left wing in a right-wing publication and vice versa.
It seems like that is coming from other outlets as well
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #617 on: March 02, 2020, 02:10:55 PM »
So arabs would have a 50% increase in trunout while major parties have a 20% increase and chareidi have a 12% increase? (I know these don't match exactly to your example but are a very rough estimate) Why would we make such an assumption and what does this have to do with his statement?

The reason I'm making though extremely rough assumptions is because if we're looking at an overall increase in the participation rate it needs to come from somewhere. It's much harder to grow a participation rate from 70% to 80% than it is to grow it from lower starting numbers, there are just more non-participants that can be converted to participants.

Now if the 10% increase is across the board, then in absolute numbers it favors those with a larger starting baseline. A 10% increase of 7 seats might still run short of 8 seats. But a 10% increase of 32 seats is likely to gain a few.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #618 on: March 02, 2020, 02:12:01 PM »
It seems like that is coming from other outlets as well

If Ha'aretz is reporting that then I might give it an ounce of credence.
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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #619 on: March 02, 2020, 02:52:47 PM »
The reason I'm making though extremely rough assumptions is because if we're looking at an overall increase in the participation rate it needs to come from somewhere. It's much harder to grow a participation rate from 70% to 80% than it is to grow it from lower starting numbers, there are just more non-participants that can be converted to participants.

Now if the 10% increase is across the board, then in absolute numbers it favors those with a larger starting baseline. A 10% increase of 7 seats might still run short of 8 seats. But a 10% increase of 32 seats is likely to gain a few.
At the same time it is easier to grow by 10,000 voters than to grow by 100,000 voters.
Feelings don't care about your facts