Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 102606 times)

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #780 on: December 12, 2020, 07:10:27 PM »
This is 57-59. What am I missing?
The polls that give them more.
In any case, I was addressing the claim that Likud + Charedim + Arabs have a floor of 53. That can still leave 67 for the above center/right parties if Meretz doesn’t get in.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Jellybelly

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #781 on: December 21, 2020, 11:39:23 PM »
I thought I remember hearing that if elections are called, then Gantz takes over as PM.
 Is that true?

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #782 on: December 21, 2020, 11:42:22 PM »
I thought I remember hearing that if elections are called, then Gantz takes over as PM.
 Is that true?

Only if the other side objected to the proposed budget (or caused some other failure). It was engineered in a way that Bibi stays until the election.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #783 on: December 22, 2020, 03:14:15 AM »
Only if the other side objected to the proposed budget (or caused some other failure). It was engineered in a way that Bibi stays until the election.
In other words, Gantz got played. Would we expect anything else?
Gantz won't even make it into the next knesset
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #784 on: December 22, 2020, 02:24:55 PM »
First predictions:
Likud 26
Sa'ar 17
Lapid 16
Bennet 15
Arabs 14
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Lieberman 7
Meretz 4
Huldai 5

Next elections in June
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #785 on: December 22, 2020, 03:31:18 PM »
The million dollar question is if Sa'ar will be as stubborn as Liberman about sitting with Bibbi or as flexible as Gantz
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #786 on: December 22, 2020, 03:43:17 PM »
The million dollar question is if Sa'ar will be as stubborn as Liberman about sitting with Bibbi or as flexible as Gantz
The answer is simple - how long has Liberman lasted in politics and how long will Gantz last. He'd be an idiot to follow Gantz's lead
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline yelped

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #787 on: December 22, 2020, 03:45:53 PM »
The million dollar question is if Sa'ar will be as stubborn as Liberman about sitting with Bibbi or as flexible as Gantz
I'm not following. Did Saar say he wouldn't sit with Bibi? If he does then the right wing+frum parties has a comfortable coalition without Lieberman.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #788 on: December 22, 2020, 08:59:49 PM »
The answer is simple - how long has Liberman lasted in politics and how long will Gantz last. He'd be an idiot to follow Gantz's lead

Gantz was never a politician. He didn't belong in this game. I don't think Sa'ar is stupid, but I fail to see his end-game. Does he really think he will lead a right or even "center-right" coalition against the Likud?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #789 on: December 22, 2020, 09:43:39 PM »
The answer is simple - how long has Liberman lasted in politics and how long will Gantz last. He'd be an idiot to follow Gantz's lead
Liberman is lasting only because he has a 5-seat die hard base of FSU immigrants who won't leave him. He has only fallen since his anti-Bibbi vendetta.

I'm not following. Did Saar say he wouldn't sit with Bibi?
Yes. The million dollar question is if he'll stick with it.

I don't think Sa'ar is stupid, but I fail to see his end-game. Does he really think he will lead a right or even "center-right" coalition against the Likud?
The polls show that's within reach, but if that doesn't work, he can squeeze some annexation or etc to justify sitting with Bibbi, and get a very senior position, compared to his lowly MK status now.

Aside from his personal position, if Sa'ar does sit with Bibbi, the right+charedim now have a whopping 70-80 seats, and can easily pass a justice system overhaul and any other agenda they want.

It was a brilliant move on Sa'ars part, he went from being an end of the line MK to the second most important politician in Israel. His only risk is that somehow he'll drop all the way from his 20-seat perch in the polls to not passing the entrance threshold and staying outside of the Kennset , but that would be an extreme outcome.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #790 on: December 22, 2020, 11:58:13 PM »
His only risk is that somehow he'll drop all the way from his 20-seat perch in the polls to not passing the entrance threshold and staying outside of the Kennset , but that would be an extreme outcome.
Such things have happened in the past.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #791 on: December 23, 2020, 12:25:08 AM »
Such things have happened in the past.
Can you give an example of a party that polled at ~20 3 months prior to election and ended up not making it into the Kennset? The closest I remember are Feiglin/Bennet etc that polled under 10.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline ExGingi

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« Last Edit: December 23, 2020, 10:50:28 AM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #793 on: December 23, 2020, 02:21:57 PM »
Elkin jumped ship to Sa'ar.

I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #794 on: December 23, 2020, 02:28:17 PM »
Elkin jumped ship to Sa'ar.


I wonder how much of an effect these defections have. Or are some people pro-Bibi and some Never-Bibi and it doesn't matter
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #795 on: December 23, 2020, 02:33:14 PM »
I wonder how much of an effect these defections have. Or are some people pro-Bibi and some Never-Bibi and it doesn't matter

All the defections are of those that are disappointed for not landing at a higher position than they would like. Nothing ideological. (Except the ideology of self advancement).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #796 on: December 23, 2020, 02:42:15 PM »
All the defections are of those that are disappointed for not landing at a higher position than they would like. Nothing ideological. (Except the ideology of self advancement).
Of course, still doesn't answer my question
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #797 on: December 23, 2020, 03:33:09 PM »
I wonder how much of an effect these defections have. Or are some people pro-Bibi and some Never-Bibi and it doesn't matter
Substantial politicians will keep Sa’ars party from dissipating. There is also no die-hard never Bibbi in the party yet - they all sat with Bibbi until last week
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Ergel

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #798 on: December 23, 2020, 03:36:21 PM »
Substantial politicians will keep Sa’ars party from dissipating. There is also no die-hard never Bibbi in the party yet - they all sat with Bibbi until last week
Maybe this whole thing is pre-planned and they are just trying to make it appear like it's an anti-Bibi party and in the end they will build a gov't under Netanyahu - Likud+Sa'ar+Bennet. Most right-wing gov't in Israel's history
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: 2019-2020 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #799 on: December 23, 2020, 03:41:59 PM »
Maybe this whole thing is pre-planned and they are just trying to make it appear like it's an anti-Bibi party and in the end they will build a gov't under Netanyahu - Likud+Sa'ar+Bennet. Most right-wing gov't in Israel's history
So far if Sa'ar ends up sitting with Bibbi it's a huge win for everybody involved.

I don't think Sa'ar is coordinated with Bibbi, but some of his backers may be. Elkin may be coordinated with Bibbi, they are (were?) very close.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים