2019-2022 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)

[PlatinumGuy]

The military draft exemption for Yeshiva students expires tonight.

https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel/2021_q1/Article-85410b9dd695771026.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802

[ExGingi]

The military draft exemption for Yeshiva students expires tonight.

https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel/2021_q1/Article-85410b9dd695771026.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802

To those that might be rejoicing over this, the message is: be careful what you wish for, you might actually get it.

This entire fiasco was brought about by the Israeli supreme court and a bunch of people trying to earn political capital.

[Moshe123]

The military draft exemption for Yeshiva students expires tonight.

https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel/2021_q1/Article-85410b9dd695771026.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802

Legally doesn't matter, even if Bagatz said so. Everything gets pushed off due to elections according to a חוק יסוד.

[PlatinumGuy]

Legally doesn't matter, even if Bagatz said so. Everything gets pushed off due to elections according to a חוק יסוד.

Nobody thinks Israeli will suddenly draft hundreds of thousands of Haredim tomorrow morning, but it's not as simple as you put it. Laws set to expire get an extension until after the elections, but this law isn't set to expire - it was ruled unconstitutional (yeah, I know the 'constitution' in Israel is a fiction created by courts), and the court allowed it to live on a temporary basis.

The Prime Minister Netanyahu is telling the court the extension applies to this as well, while the Defense Minister Gantz is saying the extension does not apply. On top of that, the Israeli courts have embraced the ridiculous AG/Government Counsel position that he has exclusive authority to represent the government/executive branch and ministers cannot represent themselves or hire outside counsel, so a lot depends on the position Mandelblit takes, which AFAIK isn't clear yet but will probably be with Netanyahu.

Gantz is in the unique position of both being very powerful as a Defense Minister that the Prime Minister cannot fire due to the rotation laws, and also hitting rock bottom politically so he has nothing to lose. In the lockdown meeting today, Gantz displayed an eagerness for ill fated populistic hail-marys, so there is no telling what he will do.

(Polls show Gantz right about the threshold of 4% percent, which if he crosses, according to some interpretations, allows him to become Prime Minister by default in November if a government isn't formed beforehand)

https://twitter.com/yoavzitun/status/1354468604515901441

[PlatinumGuy]

ניסנקורן עזב את חולדאי אחרי חודש, אבל רק שתדעו שבתל אביב זה נחשב קשר רציני -Twitter

[aygart]

Nobody thinks Israeli will suddenly draft hundreds of thousands of Haredim tomorrow morning, but it's not as simple as you put it. Laws set to expire get an extension until after the elections, but this law isn't set to expire - it was ruled unconstitutional (yeah, I know the 'constitution' in Israel is a fiction created by courts), and the court allowed it to live on a temporary basis.

The Prime Minister Netanyahu is telling the court the extension applies to this as well, while the Defense Minister Gantz is saying the extension does not apply. On top of that, the Israeli courts have embraced the ridiculous AG/Government Counsel position that he has exclusive authority to represent the government/executive branch and ministers cannot represent themselves or hire outside counsel, so a lot depends on the position Mandelblit takes, which AFAIK isn't clear yet but will probably be with Netanyahu.

Gantz is in the unique position of both being very powerful as a Defense Minister that the Prime Minister cannot fire due to the rotation laws, and also hitting rock bottom politically so he has nothing to lose. In the lockdown meeting today, Gantz displayed an eagerness for ill fated populistic hail-marys, so there is no telling what he will do.

(Polls show Gantz right about the threshold of 4% percent, which if he crosses, according to some interpretations, allows him to become Prime Minister by default in November if a government isn't formed beforehand)

https://twitter.com/yoavzitun/status/1354468604515901441

RBG had nothing on the Israelis

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/avigrin10/status/1354713779913809925

4 days to the party registration deadline

[yelped]

https://twitter.com/avigrin10/status/1354713779913809925

4 days to the party registration deadline

What's the infighting in Agudah that they're referring to? (Hope I'm not opening a can of worms).

[PlatinumGuy]

What's the infighting in Agudah that they're referring to? (Hope I'm not opening a can of worms).

Oh, I don’t even know. There’s a pretty good post from @yfr bachur explaining some of it somewhere

[yelped]

Oh, I don’t even know. There’s a pretty good post from @yfr bachur explaining some of it somewhere

That was explaining the reasoning for Degel to split from Agudah. More or less what it says in this tweet.

[zh cohen]

https://t.me/amitsegal/9833

Analysis in English about Sa'ar hiring the founders of the Lincoln Project as consultants.

Was John Weaver one of the founders that he hired?

[yfr bachur]

What's the infighting in Agudah that they're referring to? (Hope I'm not opening a can of worms).

Oh, I don’t even know. There’s a pretty good post from @yfr bachur explaining some of it somewhere

It's here:
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=123076.msg2396455#msg2396455

My filter/browser doesn't allow me to see the tweet (its all coming up in Unicode ^$%#$) gibberish) so I don't know exactly what it's talking about, but I assume it's the following:

"Aguda" is not actually a unified political party, rather it's power/vote sharing arrangement where Gur, Viznitz, Belz, Boyan, a conglomeration of smaller chasidusen (that vote) all get representation (An MK, city councilmen...). In practice, they coordinate on many things, but each also run their own program...
If the "Moetzes" of Agudah decides on a particular position, and the Rebbe of Gur, or Belz feels differently, in many case the personal representative of the Gerrer/Belzer Rebbe will not follow the Moetzes rather his Rebbe. (Not picking on Gur or Belz, each chasidus can act this way). In effect each MK is not a representative of the Agudah party, rather a representative of his Chasidus.
The division within Agudah also extends to jobs within the party, shares of funding, land allocation...

The basis for the proportion of power within the Aguda is mostly based on a number of "primary" elections, that as far as I can tell were last held in the 60s or 70s. This basically has resulted in a status quo based on the relative sizes of the chasidusen at the time of the primaries since then.
Today, some of the constituent parts of Aguda feel that the division of power is outdated and should be updated. Calls have been made by various Mks and other parties to hold new primaries, but the effort has basically been blocked by the parts of the party that are happy with the current arrangements (read: their share will likely be reduced), and by worries on how to hold fair primaries (how to ensure that only members of Agudah constituent chasidusen can vote, and prevent other parties from messing with the results)
Before elections, when the parties have to set the order of their lists, is a time that the sections of Aguda can air their grievances with the power setup. It's also the time that they have leverage. In a theoretical situation, Degel could decide to run separately from Agudah, and Belz (to pick a name out of a hat) could join their list, ensuring that the degel list will pass the threshhold, while endangering Agudah... =leverage.

I am sure that there are many parts of the political puzzle that I do not know about, and there are many people that know much better whats going on...

[ExGingi]

Today, some of the constituent parts of Aguda feel that the division of power is outdated and should be updated. Calls have been made by various Mks and other parties to hold new primaries, but the effort has basically been blocked by the parts of the party that are happy with the current arrangements (read: their share will likely be reduced), and by worries on how to hold fair primaries (how to ensure that only members of Agudah constituent chasidusen can vote, and prevent other parties from messing with the results)
Before elections, when the parties have to set the order of their lists, is a time that the sections of Aguda can air their grievances with the power setup. It's also the time that they have leverage. In a theoretical situation, Degel could decide to run separately from Agudah, and Belz (to pick a name out of a hat) could join their list, ensuring that the degel list will pass the threshhold, while endangering Agudah... =leverage.

IINM said grievances about the proportionate power were what led to the founding of Degel. And Belz isn't just a name out of the hat, IINM they supported Degel in the past.

[ExGingi]

https://www.srugim.co.il/amp?id=533504

When the super jealous talk like this, it actually gives me hope.

[PlatinumGuy]

In a brilliant move, Netanyahu is taking a leaf from the $2000 initiative that helped D's win Georgia and put forward a large stimulus in a direct assault on the long overreaching legal counsel and civil servants who really control Israel. I don't know how much more of the electorate is persuadable but Bibbi is playing a better game than ever. I hope he gets enough seats to pass significant capitalist reforms

For the first time, Netanyahu openly stated today he doesn't accept the legal counsel (Mandelblit) authority as binding, and considers their opinion only advisory. It's signaling a tectonic shift in the balance of power in Israel if Bibbi gets 61 seats, which I think he will.

ETA: Mandelblit is feeling the burn, he just released a press release at 1am trying to deny responsibility...

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/ivgiz/status/1357364344489717761

And then there was one


(HT @Drago)

[ExGingi]

https://twitter.com/ivgiz/status/1357364344489717761

And then there was one


(HT @Drago)

That's only if you chose to believe Huldai.

[PlatinumGuy]

I’m not sure where to post this, but this a beautiful display of honesty that will iyh foster unity

https://twitter.com/attaliami/status/1357420335252066306

[Happyguy]

[yfr bachur]

It seems that the the "unpleasant feelings" within UTJ/Aguda have been resolved, for now, by giving Degel the odd spots on the list and Aguda the even ones, and flipping the spots of the representatives of Viznitz and Belz.

The first ten slots:
1 Moshe Gafni (Degel), 2 Yaakov Litzman (Gur), 3 Uri Maklev (Degel), 4 Meri Porush (Shlomie Emunim=Klal Chasidi), 5 Yaakov Asher (Degel), 6 Yisroel Eichler (Belz), 7 Yitzchok Pindrus (Degel), 8 Yaakov Tessler (Viznitz), 9 Eliyahu Baruchi (Degel), 10 Moshe Shimon Roth (Sanz)

Gafni from Degel is official head of party.
The addition of Roth as a representative of Sanz is an interesting bellwether of the current internal power dynamics within Aguda. Though the tenth slot is only realistic if UTJ enters the coalition and at least two-three members become ministers, on the list for the previous Knesset, the fifth Aguda slot was given to Eliyahu Chasid as a second representative of Gur

My take: It maybe that Degel is now acknowledged as bringing more voters to the table. Belz has gained power, at the expense of Gur, being forced to acknowledge that even though it is the largest chasidus, it must allow others to the table...