Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019 Israeli election  (Read 6778 times)

Online Proisrael

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #45 on: April 09, 2019, 01:55:49 PM »
I think Bibi will lose to Gantz in seats, but is more likely to pull of the coalition - the golden question is - who are his bedfellows?

That is almost a guarantee the only question we need to ask is if Bibi goes into bed with Gantz to make a coalition...

Offline Yonah

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #46 on: April 09, 2019, 01:57:34 PM »
This is an interesting Analysis - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-election-threshold-could-determine-next-prime-minister-1001281549

Here is what I am not clear on - let's say 4 parties get 2.5% each but fail to clear 3.25. That's about 10% of the vote, or 12 seats worth. How do those twelve get allocated - do they just ignore the 10% as if they didn't vote, and then split it among the other 90% proportionally (i.e. if Bibi gets 25% of the total vote, he should get 30 seats, but now his 25/100% = 27.7/90% he gets 33?)



 


Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #47 on: April 09, 2019, 02:03:11 PM »
This is an interesting Analysis - https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-election-threshold-could-determine-next-prime-minister-1001281549

Here is what I am not clear on - let's say 4 parties get 2.5% each but fail to clear 3.25. That's about 10% of the vote, or 12 seats worth. How do those twelve get allocated - do they just ignore the 10% as if they didn't vote, and then split it among the other 90% proportionally (i.e. if Bibi gets 25% of the total vote, he should get 30 seats, but now his 25/100% = 27.7/90% he gets 33?)

You are correct in your understanding, which is why people say not to vote for parties close to the threshold, as those votes might just end up being wasted. This is where Israeli electoral math comes into play.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #48 on: April 09, 2019, 02:17:28 PM »
IMHO the biggest surprise of this election is how fast Gantz learned and transformed himself.

Compare his first speech, where any animation was obviously difficult for him and scripted, to how animated he seems to be now when he talks.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Online Proisrael

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #50 on: April 09, 2019, 02:40:53 PM »
Hashem Yerachim!

Report:Preliminary count of samples brings defeat to the right-wing

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #51 on: April 09, 2019, 03:09:02 PM »
Channel 11 saying Netanyahu has 64 seat potential coalition. (That's assuming Bennet is out).





« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 04:22:59 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #52 on: April 09, 2019, 03:31:11 PM »
Will we see a repeat of what we saw in the 2016 US elections?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #53 on: April 09, 2019, 03:44:10 PM »
Zehut will be a lot higher then you expect.

Based on exit polls, will we see someone joining @ChaimMoskowitz for a feast of Crow?
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 03:47:17 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Online gingyguy

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #54 on: April 09, 2019, 03:55:14 PM »
Based on exit polls, will we see someone joining @ChaimMoskowitz for a feast of Crow?
so that's where he is!
May you slide down the banister of happiness & get many splinters of success up your career.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #55 on: April 09, 2019, 04:02:29 PM »
Also to be noted that nothing is final until the votes of the soldiers are counted, so we are days away from final results, especially with parties very close, and on either side of the minimum threshold.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #56 on: April 09, 2019, 04:28:10 PM »
Anyone have some predictions??

I think Bibi is going to lose to Gantz by at least 6-7 seats.

Here's my prediction - Nir Barkat is being groomed to take Netanyahu's place after Netanyahu retires.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #57 on: April 09, 2019, 04:31:13 PM »
Gantz is Prime minister until 1 am
lapid until 5 am
and bibi is from the morning for 4 years
 ;) ;)

Offline ilherman

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #58 on: April 09, 2019, 04:43:18 PM »
Hashem Yerachim!

Report:Preliminary count of samples brings defeat to the right-wing
Reminds me of the 2016 exit polls.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #59 on: April 09, 2019, 04:47:55 PM »
Reminds me of the 2016 exit polls.

Though in the US, Clinton ended up not speaking. Whereas the Israelis already had Peres once crowned by the exit polls as the next PM, hold a victory speech, only to discover that he was unable to form a coalition government.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan