2019-2022 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)

[ExGingi]

UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.

I don't know if that is accurate, the math is very complex (see image I posted above). Lieberman is indeed a headache, and Netanyahu knows that UTJ and Shas are probably the most reliable partners.

As for losing the 8th, that would be a shame. I think Pindrus is a very talented guy (I've heard good things about him from people that worked with him when he was mayor of Beitar) who has been a victim of political games (mostly by his own faction) played over the last decade or so.

I have a sense (maybe a hope) that the last local election in Israel were the low point of מחלוקת, and we are on a way up from here towards productive unity with mutual respect. Let's hope that we see only positive and uniting actions and words henceforth.

[zh cohen]

Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.

Bibi can get a very narrow coalition without Lieberman now, if he includes Kahlon. Not saying that he's going to do it, but it's possible.

[PlatinumGuy]

Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely

[Moshe123]

Bibi can get a very narrow coalition without Lieberman now, if he includes Kahlon. Not saying that he's going to do it, but it's possible.

Only 60 without him now. Things will shift around tomorrow with the last quarter million votes counted.

[Moshe123]

Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely

He won't do it.

[ExGingi]

Makes sense for Gantz to take his guys and sit with Bibbi in exchange for little more than a prestigious job, otherwise he will be ousted from the political world entirely

You really think so?

[zh cohen]

Only 60 without him now. Things will shift around tomorrow with the last quarter million votes counted.

I see now. The numbers I was looking at had Likud at 37, and Balad not making it in.

[Jellybelly]

I recall that there is a law that you need a certain number of MKs to break off from a party, I guess the most ideal option would be to convince enough center-right MKs to leave Gantz and then you won’t need Lieberman

[ExGingi]

I recall that there is a law that you need a certain number of MKs to break off from a party, I guess the most ideal option would be to convince enough center-right MKs to leave Gantz and then you won’t need Lieberman

Netanyahu obviously had moles within the Gantz campaign/close circles, as evidenced by leaks of recordings. While Lapid is too arrogant (besides for being persona non-grata), and Gantz would need to backtrack on public statements he made, I will not be surprised if we see defectors or a breakup.

[doodle]

Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it.

You have Satmar lunatics, Charedi mainstream, Chabad chardalim, and mizrachists.


Back to work.....

From many other things, this rings true ..
can you link sources to this pattern ?

[ExGingi]

UTJ would lose the 8th. Lieberman is a major headache if the coalition hinges on him.

Not final yet, but if indeed Bennet gets in, while it seems to be most detrimental to Blue & White, it hurts by having UTJ lose the 8th seat, as well as United Right Wing losing a seat, which keeps Ben Gvir (the only candidate of that list that I would have loved to see in, as he is great entertainment and a wonderful thorn in the side of the left wing) further away from getting in.

אם אכן תיכנס מפלגת הימין החדש לכנסת, משמעות הדבר כי מפלגת כחול לבן תרד מ-35 ל-33 מנדטים. איחוד מפלגות הימין תרד במנדט מ-5 ל-4 מנדטים, וכך גם מפלגת יהדות התורה שתרד מ-8 מנדטים ל-7.

[Proisrael]

Not final yet, but if indeed Bennet gets in, while it seems to be most detrimental to Blue & White, it hurts by having UTJ lose the 8th seat, as well as United Right Wing losing a seat, which keeps Ben Gvir (the only candidate of that list that I would have loved to see in, as he is great entertainment and a wonderful thorn in the side of the left wing) further away from getting in.

Seems Bennett is out and Likud is at 37.

[churnbabychurn]

You start sounding like CBC when you write like that.

Not saying that I agree with the writer, but if you want to understand the reasoning of people to vote for the United Right Wing read http://col.org.il/%D7%97%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA_%D7%97%D7%91%D7%93_%D7%9C%D7%9E%D7%94_%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%99_%D7%9E%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%98%D7%91_%D7%95%D7%9C%D7%90_%D7%90%D7%A6%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A2_%D7%92_%D7%93%D7%A2%D7%94_117541.html

Which also explains some of the history where Shas is

It would be a long stretch to call Shas מפלגה החרדית ביותר (and even a greater stretch to do so for the United Right Wing). Accepting ministerial positions, especially in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, or at the Ministry of Interior, presents very serious Halachic problems.

As for Shleimus Ha'aretz (or Pikuach Nefesh), while it is true that Shas (and specifically Arye Deri) have an extremely tainted history, I think at this point they have learned their lesson. (Though I would think Deri learned it better, as he has personally suffered, whereas Gafni (and Litzman) never saw real personal consequences for their support of Gaza withdrawal.

Oh stop being so sensitive. If it's true that y'all vote for mizrachi then that's all he said.

And please stop saying rediculous things like Shas and ג not being the most charedi. They clearly and obviously are. Duh.

Even the article you linked doesn't claim that.

The aurgument is that not having extreme right ring views is pikuach nefesh so you can vote for mizrachi. Ok, obviously this is not something 90% of the frum world agreed with but I guess you are entitled.

You are also not entitled to pull out your " sinas chinam" card when it is you who separate from the rest of the frum world for elections..

[ExGingi]

Oh stop being so sensitive. If it's true that y'all vote for mizrachi then that's all he said.

All I said was that when @Moshe123 starts making assumptions or drawing conclusions as to what others think or feel, he sounds like you.

And please stop saying rediculous things like Shas and ג not being the most charedi. They clearly and obviously are. Duh.

Though you are the only one who seems to have a reading comprehension problem (as well as a problem using simple logic).

מפגלה החרדית ביותר can only be one party. This ain't your kids, who can all be the most loved, we are talking about a certain criterion for voting for a political party, where you can only vote for one. So which one of the two is it in your opinion? I clearly outlined a certain very obvious difference between the two.

I will furthermore state, that while it would have been wonderful to see even more unity, it is quite obvious that the reason Shas didn't unite with UTJ was in order to attract the Sephardic votes that wouldn't likely vote so easily for a "Chareidi" block. They might have made a right calculation. IDK.

Even the article you linked doesn't claim that.

The aurgument is that not having extreme right ring views is pikuach nefesh so you can vote for mizrachi. Ok, obviously this is not something 90% of the frum world agreed with but I guess you are entitled.

I didn't say the article said anything about being Charedi or not. That being said, if a person seems and acts "Charedi" but is a blatantly practices Mesirah, and not only in דיני ממונות, but even in דיני נפשות. Whereas another might not seem outwardly Charedi, might be more independent in actions and decisions, rather than deferring to דעת תורה, but will by no means put another Jew in danger, which one is more "Charedi"?

You are also not entitled to pull out your " sinas chinam" card when it is you who separate from the rest of the frum world for elections..

I definitely didn't draw the "sinas chinam" card, though when it comes to involvement in politics, the Rebbe's shitta is clearly different that most of the rest of the "frum world". The Rebbe being the only legitimate spokesperson for Chabad clearly stated that Chabad does not join or endorse any party, and whatever political (as in policy issues, rather than political parties) involvement exists, it is only in things that are relevant to כלל ישראל, rather than advancing sectorial needs.

[Moshe123]

No assumptions.

https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=696

Results from Kfar Chabad.

[ExGingi]

No assumptions.

https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=696

Results from Kfar Chabad.

I posted those results before they were made public on the Israeli government website, and lamented them.

However, when you write

Chabad voting for mizrachists time and again with excuses, just obscures that their sympathies lie there and that's it

that is making assumptions about where people's sympathies lie.

When Litzman, Gafni and Deri (and possibly also Eichler, I'm not sure) all have a proven record of aiding and abetting government decisions that are deemed Pikuach Nefesh, people have a hard time voting for them in a clear conscience. It's that simple. (not saying that I agree or disagree, or what I would have done, but just stating the simple reasoning, that has nothing to do with sympathies. Chabad is and was always opposed to Zionism, but doesn't let that get in the way of loving and caring for every Jew, even if they are Zionists).

[Yonah]

I posted those results before they were made public on the Israeli government website, and lamented them.

However, when you writethat is making assumptions about where people's sympathies lie.

When Litzman, Gafni and Deri (and possibly also Eichler, I'm not sure) all have a proven record of aiding and abetting government decisions that are deemed Pikuach Nefesh, people have a hard time voting for them in a clear conscience. It's that simple. (not saying that I agree or disagree, or what I would have done, but just stating the simple reasoning, that has nothing to do with sympathies. Chabad is and was always opposed to Zionism, but doesn't let that get in the way of loving and caring for every Jew, even if they are Zionists).

I assume you mean that they are voting opposite the side that would be deemed pikuach nefesh.

[ExGingi]

I assume you mean that they are voting opposite the side that would be deemed pikuach nefesh.

Deri was a minister in the government that approved the Oslo accords and didn't vote against them.

Litzman was AWOL at a vote regarding the Gaza withdrawal.

Gafni actually voted against the Gaza withdrawal but is viewed as aiding and abetting by helping vote for the government budget, which allowed the government to last beyond the Gaza withdrawal rather than fall before the withdrawal could be carried out.

[ExGingi]

Final results published, only change seems to be Likud gaining 1 seat at the expense of UTJ  However, while these results do seem final, the official count gets published next Wednesday (ask @Yehuda57 as to when that is, he might tell you that the official count is being published this Wednesday).

Let's hope Lieberman doesn't end up being too much of a troublemaker, and that URW manages to get Ben-Gvir in as they have pledged to do, so we get some good entertainment and a thorn in the Lefties sides.

ועדת הבחירות המרכזית פרסמה הערב (חמישי) את התוצאות הסופיות של הבחירות לכנסת ה-21 שנערכו ביום שלישי השבוע, לאחר סיום הבדיקות וחישוב תוצאות הסכמי העודפים.

על פי התוצאות הסופיות הליכוד היא המפלגה הגדולה ביותר עם 36 מנדטים, במקום השני כחול לבן עם 35 מנדטים.

ש"ס מקבלת 8 מנדטים, יהדות התורה 7 מנדטים, העבודה 6 מנדטים, חד"ש-תע"ל 6 מנדטים, ישראל ביתנו 5 מנדטים, איחוד מפלגות הימין 5 מנדטים, כולנו 4 מנדטים, מרצ 4 מנדטים ורע"מ-בל"ד גם כן 4 מנדטים.

על פי התוצאות הסופיות עומד גוש הימין על 65 מנדטים ואילו גוש השמאל עומד על 55 מנדטים. ‏לימין החדש היו חסרים 1461 קולות כדי להיכנס לכנסת.

ו"ר ועדת הבחירות המרכזית, השופט חנן מלצר, הדגיש כי התוצאות שפורסמו הערב ''אינן התוצאות הרשמיות שיפורסמו ב-17 באפריל 2019 ויוגשו לנשיא המדינה.

''אנו שומרים לעצמנו את הזכות לבחון את התוצאות בכלי בקרה נוספים שונים, שמפעילה הוועדה, לצורך שיקוף ההצבעה הבוחרים בתוצאות, באופן המיטיבי ובהתאם לחוק הבחירות לכנסת, ולכן תוצאות אלה עוד כפופות לשינויים והתאמות", הוסיף מלצר.

במפלגת הימין החדש הגיבו: ''התוצאות שפורסמו אינן סופיות, ואנחנו ממשיכים להילחם. אנו מצפים מהתקשורת לגלות קצת יותר רצינות בדיווחיה.

''לאורך היום הוקם במטה המפלגה חמ"ל שריכז כ-1,000 כשלים וליקויים בהליכי ההצבעה. מיד בתחילת השבוע נקבל לידינו את הפרוטוקולים ומאות המתנדבים שלנו ישוו אותם לתוצאות הממוחשבות.

''כמו כן, נטפל בכל אי הסדרים הקיצוניים שהתגלו בספירת המעטפות הכפולות. נקבל את הכרעת הבוחר, אך לא נוותר עד שנדע מה היא באמת", הוסיפו בימין החדש.

[avremie]

The new government will not last long. There's no way the charedim and Lieberman can sit together peacefully. And there's no coalition without them.