Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 101869 times)

Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #180 on: May 30, 2019, 08:03:58 AM »
I think Feiglin will join with Bayit Yehudi and Bennett will join with Lieberman.

Bennett might join Lieberman, but try as he may, I doubt anyone will accept Feiglin into their ranks.
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Offline yitzyul

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #181 on: May 30, 2019, 10:15:35 AM »
Can someone explain, how this election helps anything? The previous government was vary narrow with approx 66 seats. Lieberman "quit" so a few months later Bibi called for new elections.
Wont it be the same way now all over again?
Bibi will create "right" government with the same narrow coalition, and then again Lieberman can bolt in a few months and were right back to were we were.

And this is exactly what I "predicted".

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Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #183 on: June 30, 2019, 10:23:00 AM »
Anyone thinking that Netanyahu doesn't have a strategy vis-a-vis Gaza, is in total denial.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/06/palestine-qatari-grant-emadi-poor-families-israel-gaza-cash.html

Quote
“Israel closely monitors the lists of beneficiaries of the cash grant," he told Al-Monitor. "It removed about 5,000 families from the fifth tranche of its grant disbursed in May 13 and is now removing tens of thousands from the sixth tranche, prompting the Qatari ambassador to announce a change in the disbursement mechanism.”
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Offline Proisrael

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #184 on: July 01, 2019, 04:34:14 AM »
Anyone thinking that Netanyahu doesn't have a strategy vis-a-vis Gaza, is in total denial.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/06/palestine-qatari-grant-emadi-poor-families-israel-gaza-cash.html

Strategy or not he is losing voters.

Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #185 on: July 01, 2019, 12:31:27 PM »
Strategy or not he is losing voters.

At least that's what the masters of #FakeNews are telling you.

In the meantime, enjoy the following video I saw on a WhatsApp group:

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Offline Jellybelly

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #186 on: July 29, 2019, 10:53:40 PM »
Is there any update on the elections?
Did all the small groups on the right unite?

Offline shimino1

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #187 on: July 30, 2019, 02:08:43 AM »
Is there any update on the elections?
Did all the small groups on the right unite?
No.
Only the two larger parties united.
There are still two small parties worth together 2-5 seats that are not part of the union.

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #188 on: July 30, 2019, 09:07:41 AM »
Is there any update on the elections?
Did all the small groups on the right unite?

It's all irrelevant. Any way you slice things, Lieberman remains the most powerful guy. It doesn't seem like there's a way to keep him out. It could become interesting when no one will be able to form a coalition because of him.
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Offline shimino1

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #189 on: July 30, 2019, 10:21:24 AM »
It's all irrelevant. Any way you slice things, Lieberman remains the most powerful guy. It doesn't seem like there's a way to keep him out. It could become interesting when no one will be able to form a coalition because of him.
He is not as relevant as he keeps telling everyone.

There are only four possible outcomes regarding Leiberman:
1. Likud + all the Religious/Chareidi parties get more then 61 seats and form a government without Liberman
2. Lieberman joins with Likud and the all religious/Chareidi parties to form a government
3. Blue and white + the deep left parties + Liberman + the Chareidim form a government
4. Likud and Blue and white form a government in which case either they don't need anyone else or they need another 5-10 seats in which case it is far more likely the chreidim join.

Any other scenario such as blue and white breaking up after the election or labor party joining a likud government would not require Leiberman's help.

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #190 on: July 30, 2019, 01:26:56 PM »
He is not as relevant as he keeps telling everyone.

There are only four possible outcomes regarding Leiberman:
1. Likud + all the Religious/Chareidi parties get more then 61 seats and form a government without Liberman
2. Lieberman joins with Likud and the all religious/Chareidi parties to form a government
3. Blue and white + the deep left parties + Liberman + the Chareidim form a government
4. Likud and Blue and white form a government in which case either they don't need anyone else or they need another 5-10 seats in which case it is far more likely the chreidim join.

Any other scenario such as blue and white breaking up after the election or labor party joining a likud government would not require Leiberman's help.

No way Lieberman and the Charedim sit together in a left-led coalition. Charedim would never do it.

Only options are Netanyahu + right wing + Charedim with or without lieberman or a unity government where lieberman's seats aren't as powerful.

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #191 on: July 30, 2019, 01:37:41 PM »
He is not as relevant as he keeps telling everyone.

There are only four possible outcomes regarding Leiberman:
1. Likud + all the Religious/Chareidi parties get more then 61 seats and form a government without Liberman
2. Lieberman joins with Likud and the all religious/Chareidi parties to form a government
3. Blue and white + the deep left parties + Liberman + the Chareidim form a government
4. Likud and Blue and white form a government in which case either they don't need anyone else or they need another 5-10 seats in which case it is far more likely the chreidim join.

Any other scenario such as blue and white breaking up after the election or labor party joining a likud government would not require Leiberman's help.

Option 1 doesn't seem likely at all, unless by some miracle Lieberman doesn't cross the threshold to enter the Knesset.
Option 2 would require Lieberman to renege on everything, I don't think this is likely.
Option 3 won't happen as long as Lapid is there, and as far as Lieberman joining, see option 2.
Option 4 is the least unlikely of your scenarios, though I find it highly unlikely.

Blue and White breaking up could be a scenario, but they are well aware of that, and are preempting it, so it's not very likely as long as the breakup didn't occur prior to the election. Labor (which is likely to be renamed) might join (haven't seen yet if they pledged anything anti-Netanyahu).

But all you need to do is look at Greece, Belgium or even the UK and find out what political chaos in a parliamentary system means. I find this as the most likely outcome, and have no clue as to how it gets resolved.
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #192 on: July 30, 2019, 02:10:25 PM »
Option 1 doesn't seem likely at all, unless by some miracle Lieberman doesn't cross the threshold to enter the Knesset.
Option 2 would require Lieberman to renege on everything, I don't think this is likely.
Option 3 won't happen as long as Lapid is there, and as far as Lieberman joining, see option 2.
Option 4 is the least unlikely of your scenarios, though I find it highly unlikely.

Blue and White breaking up could be a scenario, but they are well aware of that, and are preempting it, so it's not very likely as long as the breakup didn't occur prior to the election. Labor (which is likely to be renamed) might join (haven't seen yet if they pledged anything anti-Netanyahu).

But all you need to do is look at Greece, Belgium or even the UK and find out what political chaos in a parliamentary system means. I find this as the most likely outcome, and have no clue as to how it gets resolved.

If the right votes efficiently (no Otzmah and no Zehut) they could get to 61 with Likud + Charedim. They were at 59/60 last time. The wildcard is where Liberman (who is projected to grow) grabs seats from.

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #193 on: July 30, 2019, 02:25:50 PM »
If the right votes efficiently (no Otzmah and no Zehut) they could get to 61 with Likud + Charedim. They were at 59/60 last time. The wildcard is where Liberman (who is projected to grow) grabs seats from.

I don't think you are being realistic.

See for example: https://docs.google.com/gview?embedded=true&url=img.mako.co.il/2019/07/30/news12electionpoll.pdf&Partner=interlink
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #194 on: July 30, 2019, 03:33:16 PM »
I don't think you are being realistic.

See for example: https://docs.google.com/gview?embedded=true&url=img.mako.co.il/2019/07/30/news12electionpoll.pdf&Partner=interlink

That actually proves his point. Zehut and Otzma are pulling 2.5% which is 3 seats. That puts the right/chareidim at 60

ETA: I should have looked past the second page ..
« Last Edit: July 30, 2019, 03:40:46 PM by zh cohen »

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #195 on: July 30, 2019, 03:37:48 PM »
That actually proves his point. Zehut and Otzma are pulling 2.5% which is 3 seats. That puts the right/chareidim at 60

How are you reading that into the poll? Zehut and Otzma aren't strong enough to cross the threshold. And when combined with other right wing parties, the balance of power remains more or less the same.



The weakest link in this deadlock, and the one most likely to blink is whatever the former Labor party will be named. The people leading it supposedly care mostly about socioeconomic issues, and might be somewhat aligned with Shas in those areas. They also have shown a history of signing up with whoever will take them.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2019, 03:48:06 PM by ExGingi »
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #196 on: July 30, 2019, 04:26:24 PM »
How are you reading that into the poll? Zehut and Otzma aren't strong enough to cross the threshold. And when combined with other right wing parties, the balance of power remains more or less the same.



The weakest link in this deadlock, and the one most likely to blink is whatever the former Labor party will be named. The people leading it supposedly care mostly about socioeconomic issues, and might be somewhat aligned with Shas in those areas. They also have shown a history of signing up with whoever will take them.

The Chareidim are always the weakest link.

The issue is I can't see them in a coalition with Lapid and Lieberman who both want army service. So whatever labor is won't be big enough to tip a coalition.

Would the new right join blue and white, former labor, and Lieberman if they got 61? Who knows? It's going to be messy if the right + Chareidim don't hit 61 in any outcome, and it's the "fault" of a lot of people.

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #197 on: July 30, 2019, 04:41:52 PM »
The Chareidim are always the weakest link.
-1


The issue is I can't see them in a coalition with Lapid and Lieberman who both want army service. So whatever labor is won't be big enough to tip a coalition.

Would the new right join blue and white, former labor, and Lieberman if they got 61? Who knows? It's going to be messy if the right + Chareidim don't hit 61 in any outcome, and it's the "fault" of a lot of people.

With the Arabs + Lieberman potentially holding over 20 seats, it's deadlock all over again between the pro-Bibi and anti-Bibi camps. It is political chaos. Greece has seen it, the UK is seeing it (in regards to Brexit), and other parliamentary systems have seen it. It isn't pretty and it can drag on for a long time.

If Otzma and Noam join together will they cross the threshold? That's anyone's guess, and it's a dangerous move. At this point it's all speculation at least until the lists/parties are finalized by the end of this week. But the big picture remains that Lieberman and the Arabs wield the most power.
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #198 on: July 30, 2019, 04:43:43 PM »
-1


With the Arabs + Lieberman potentially holding over 20 seats, it's deadlock all over again between the pro-Bibi and anti-Bibi camps. It is political chaos. Greece has seen it, the UK is seeing it (in regards to Brexit), and other parliamentary systems have seen it. It isn't pretty and it can drag on for a long time.

If Otzma and Noam join together will they cross the threshold? That's anyone's guess, and it's a dangerous move. At this point it's all speculation at least until the lists/parties are finalized by the end of this week. But the big picture remains that Lieberman and the Arabs wield the most power.
I think the Chareidim will join any coalition that let's them keep the army status quo + money, and save face on religion and state.

Why do you say they are anything but the weakest link?

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #199 on: July 30, 2019, 04:50:18 PM »
I think the Chareidim will join any coalition that let's them keep the army status quo + money, and save face on religion and state.

Why do you say they are anything but the weakest link?

1. Lapid is persona non-grata! B&W + UTJ and/or SHAS is something that won't happen, because neither side will back off (B&W won't discard Lapid, and UTJ/SHAS won't accept anything where he has any say).

2. They have publicly pledged to support Netanyahu in the previous elections. While this is a new round, and they might be a little more cautious here, I doubt it will change. They also know that Netanyahu is by far more capable than any of the other clowns. I think his successor might end up being Barkat, but that's years down the road, not now. If Israel would have direct personal election of the Prime Minister, Netanyahu would win it even if he stayed silent the entire campaign.

OTOH Amir Peretz and Orly Levi, they will jump on any opportunity given to them (I am not aware of any pledge they might have made one way or another). The other "option" would be a breakup of B&W. The sooner that happens, the better. It's a hodgepodge of opportunists and some talented people. It's the "leadership" of B&W that presents the biggest problem.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2019, 04:54:51 PM by ExGingi »
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