Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2022 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 225625 times)

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #200 on: July 30, 2019, 06:37:48 PM »
Amir Peretz/Labor is refusing to state he won't sit with Netanyahu, so these elections end one of 3 ways:

1) Lieberman recommends Bibbi and Bibbi forms a govt with Peretz as Defense Minister and Lieberman crawling in.

2) Right has 60 without Lieberman and same happens, perhaps less for Peretz.

3) B&W get more seats than the Likud, Lieberman recommends Gantz, and there will be a left wing government.

3 is extremely unlikely considering the polls always underestimate the Likud, and if Lieberman causes a true left government he really is toast, no anti Haredi law will be significant enough to save him 
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #201 on: July 30, 2019, 06:40:15 PM »
Additionally, Bibbi will never agree to any form of Gantz being prime minster, the Likud will never break up, and it appears very unlikely that B&W does before the govt is formed.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline shimino1

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #202 on: July 30, 2019, 06:53:03 PM »
It is very possible that the right hits 61 without Liberman.
It happened in 2015.
It also would have happened in the past elections if Bennet + Zehut + Orly Levi hadn't thrown away over 300,000 right wing votes worth 4-6 seats.

For the 61 seat scenario to work you need the answer to two questions:
1. How stupid will the religious right wing parties be this time around?
2. If Liberman really does grow, where will his extra votes come from? Lapid's rabid chareidi haters or the "soft" right (Kachlon's old voters)?

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #203 on: July 30, 2019, 07:04:10 PM »
1. How stupid will the religious right wing parties be this time around?
The parties are in the final position now IMO. Question is RE the voters of Zehut & Otzma Yehudit.

2. If Liberman really does grow, where will his extra votes come from? Lapid's rabid chareidi haters or the "soft" right (Kachlon's old voters)?

The polls are very clearly showing the second. But in all likelihood they are underestimating the Likud again as always, and Bibbi will manage to snag a bit from Lieberman by bringing Putin to Israel etc.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Jellybelly

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #204 on: July 31, 2019, 12:14:42 AM »
Are Eli Yishai and Amnon Yitzchok still a factor?
Will they be wasting any right votes?

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #205 on: July 31, 2019, 10:10:52 AM »
It is very possible that the right hits 61 without Liberman.
It happened in 2015.
It also would have happened in the past elections if Bennet + Zehut + Orly Levi hadn't thrown away over 300,000 right wing votes worth 4-6 seats.

For the 61 seat scenario to work you need the answer to two questions:
1. How stupid will the religious right wing parties be this time around?
2. If Liberman really does grow, where will his extra votes come from? Lapid's rabid chareidi haters or the "soft" right (Kachlon's old voters)?
Lieberman is polling better than last time around... If his goal was to pretend to hate the draft deferments to become a king maker, it's working.

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #206 on: July 31, 2019, 10:15:29 AM »
Lieberman is polling better than last time around... If his goal was to pretend to hate the draft deferments to become a king maker, it's working.
Or the actual king.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Proisrael

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #207 on: July 31, 2019, 10:37:25 AM »
Amir Peretz/Labor is refusing to state he won't sit with Netanyahu, so these elections end one of 3 ways:

1) Lieberman recommends Bibbi and Bibbi forms a govt with Peretz as Defense Minister and Lieberman crawling in.

2) Right has 60 without Lieberman and same happens, perhaps less for Peretz.

3) B&W get more seats than the Likud, Lieberman recommends Gantz, and there will be a left wing government.

3 is extremely unlikely considering the polls always underestimate the Likud, and if Lieberman causes a true left government he really is toast, no anti Haredi law will be significant enough to save him

THREE WILL NEVER HAPPEN!!! The left cannot form a govt because there are many MK's in Blue and White that would never ever sit with the arabs regardless if it means Bibi winning.

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #208 on: July 31, 2019, 10:42:47 AM »
THREE WILL NEVER HAPPEN!!! The left cannot form a govt because there are many MK's in Blue and White that would never ever sit with the arabs regardless if it means Bibi winning.

There are several reasons why it won't happen. Not the least of them is that Lieberman, no matter what he does end up doing, won't join B&W without another LARGE party being part of it.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Proisrael

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #209 on: July 31, 2019, 10:49:55 AM »
There are several reasons why it won't happen. Not the least of them is that Lieberman, no matter what he does end up doing, won't join B&W without another LARGE party being part of it.

And Lieberman would never ever sit with the Joint List, which then means they need to bring in the Charedi parties which would then bring us back to the original problem.

The most likely scenario is Likud forming something with Labor/Unified Right/Charedim as was mentioned above

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #210 on: July 31, 2019, 10:57:24 AM »
And Lieberman would never ever sit with the Joint List, which then means they need to bring in the Charedi parties which would then bring us back to the original problem.

The most likely scenario is Likud forming something with Labor/Unified Right/Charedim as was mentioned above

Which is what I said, but if Labor (or whatever it will be named) doesn't cross the threshold, or won't play ball (unlikely IMHO, given the history of the individuals) we're back at political chaos.

Whichever way you slice things, B&W is an unworkable hodgepodge that was put together by elements that are constantly seeking ways to topple Netanyahu. They failed with their V15 initiative, and bez"h will fail again.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #211 on: July 31, 2019, 12:03:15 PM »
Which is what I said, but if Labor (or whatever it will be named) doesn't cross the threshold, or won't play ball (unlikely IMHO, given the history of the individuals) we're back at political chaos.

Whichever way you slice things, B&W is an unworkable hodgepodge that was put together by elements that are constantly seeking ways to topple Netanyahu. They failed with their V15 initiative, and bez"h will fail again.
I think some sort of unity government involving B&W splitting up is most likely, or Lieberman and the Chareidim find a way to come up with a compromise where both sides can claim a victory (maybe that drafing starts in 4 years and suddenly the government disolves after 3.5).

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #212 on: July 31, 2019, 12:43:40 PM »
https://youtu.be/ELZ83LN4Mow

This video is gold. Watch how after arguing, all of a sudden when faced with a tough question at 0:14 he swiftly turns his head away and walks away.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #213 on: August 01, 2019, 12:36:27 PM »
Lieberman seems to agree with me that Labor is the weakest link in the opposition to Netanyahu.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline shimino1

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #214 on: August 01, 2019, 02:01:40 PM »
Lieberman seems to agree with me that Labor is the weakest link in the opposition to Netanyahu.
I really hope you don't start spewing as much garbage as Liberman does. So far he has been wrong most of the time.
In the days leading to the last election he promised in interviews that he will get at least 10 seats.
Previously he has promised to pass a death penalty for terrorists, promised to strip "unloyal" Arab citizens of their citizenship, promised public transportation on Shabbos, promised civil marriage, promised to destroy Hamas, promised to kill the Hamas head and on and on and on.

He is a liar and a politician who can only grab power, not pass reforms.
I doubt very much that the end results will resemble the current polls or that Liberman will be a kingmaker after the next elections.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #215 on: August 01, 2019, 05:38:07 PM »
The parties are in the final position now IMO
8) 8) 8)
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #216 on: August 01, 2019, 05:39:53 PM »
There are several reasons why it won't happen. Not the least of them is that Lieberman, no matter what he does end up doing, won't join B&W without another LARGE party being part of it.
I'm not so convinced. His other option is crawling in to Bibbi and being ridiculed for eternity. Gantz having not better alternative may go so far as giving him a rotation for PM.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #217 on: August 01, 2019, 05:42:16 PM »
THREE WILL NEVER HAPPEN!!! The left cannot form a govt because there are many MK's in Blue and White that would never ever sit with the arabs regardless if it means Bibi winning.


Rabin formed a gov't of 50 with support from the Arabs outside. I wonder if the Arabs won't support Bibbi though, Gantz is no better for them.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #218 on: August 01, 2019, 05:46:18 PM »
Which is what I said, but if Labor (or whatever it will be named) doesn't cross the threshold, or won't play ball (unlikely IMHO, given the history of the individuals) we're back at political chaos.
True, but Labor will for sure cross the threshold, they have a strong generational base. And Peretz says he will join Bibbi if it comes to it.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan