2019-2022 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)

[grodnoking]

At 6.07 a.m., 1,912,015 votes had been counted – or 29.90% of the casted ballots.

The Central Election Committee published the first results based on counted votes. At 6.07 a.m., 1,912,015 votes had been counted – or 29.90% of the casted ballots.

According to the results, Likud received 27.78% of the votes, followed by Blue and White with 25.94%, Shas with 8.72%, Yisrael Beytenu with 7.68%, UTJ with 8.68% Yamina with 6.75%, Labor with 5.02%, the Democratic Union with 4,43%, the Joint Union with 1,89% and Otzma Yehudit with 2.26%.

[ilherman]

Israel’s Channel 12 says it has received reports from sources in the Central Elections Committee, which reflect around 85% of the national vote.

The station says that according to those unofficial results, Netanyahu’s Likud and Gantz’s Blue and White are tied at 32 seats and that including minor parties, the right-wing bloc has a total of 56 seats, the centre-left has 55 and Liberman has 9.

Channel 12 says its sources tell it that a majority of votes have already been counted, but due to increased scrutiny, the CEC is doing recounts in order to ensure the information it puts out is accurate.

[Ergel]

Shaked the biggest loser again. I'm actually shocked

3 paths to a coalition
1. Likud, yamina, chareidim, labor
2. Likud + blue/white with a rotation for PM? Who goes first? Can netanyahu even sit with gantz?
3. Blue white, Arabs, labor, Barak and Lieberman. What a disaster. Any chance that government lasts longer than six months?
Or round 3

Where do we go from here?

[Ergel]

Is Lieberman really the big winner? He can't sit with the right. He (presumably) can't sit with the left. And they don't need him for a unity government. What am I missing?

[Jellybelly]

Is Lieberman really the big winner? He can't sit with the right. He (presumably) can't sit with the left. And they don't need him for a unity government. What am I missing?

Seems like he only wanted to ruin bibi, and it seems like there’s a chance that might happen. Blue and white might sit with likud, if bibi isn’t PM

[~King Lake~]

Seems like he only wanted to ruin bibi, and it seems like there’s a chance that might happen. Blue and white might sit with likud, if bibi isn’t PM

I can't see Bibi sitting in kneset without being PM/under gantz

[mgarfin]

Chabad seems to have added a mass amount to utj
https://mobile.kikar.co.il/abroad/article/331124

[ExGingi]

Can't forget this important tidbit.

https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1032674

I guess I am not the only one that thinks so.

[ExGingi]

Exactly that. It is a union between 4 Arab parties that have little in common other than being Arab. Traditionally Arab turnout is low, because the general Arab population feels that the Arab parties don't really represent their issues, but a rather busy with regional and foreign policy issue (read: supporting Israel's Arab enemies such as Syria). However this time around it seems like Arab turnout was close to 50%.

http://econoblog.co.il/רעמ-תעל-בלד-חדש-דעם-מדריך-למצביע-המבו/

Try Google translate. Maybe it will produce something comprehensible. If it doesn't, I will try to summarize when have some time. Some of the comments seem to address inaccuracies.

[Yonah]

Shaked the biggest loser again. I'm actually shocked

3 paths to a coalition
1. Likud, yamina, chareidim, labor
2. Likud + blue/white with a rotation for PM? Who goes first? Can netanyahu even sit with gantz?
3. Blue white, Arabs, labor, Barak and Lieberman. What a disaster. Any chance that government lasts longer than six months?
Or round 3

Where do we go from here?

1. Do we really think that a neutered Labor would go into a coalition with Bibi?
2. If this happens, I suspect that one (or both) of these two things happens - a) Bibi's coalition deal will preclude him from being prosecuted even while he's not PM b) He'll get the first 1.5-2 years, and then 1 or 2 months shy find a way to force a new election

Is Lieberman really the big winner? He can't sit with the right. He (presumably) can't sit with the left. And they don't need him for a unity government. What am I missing?

Lieberman is in a weird position... what is the lesser of two evils for him - joining with Bibi or joining with the Arab List? If Gantz/Bibi want full control, they need to make a deal with him. But he himself is pushing for a Unity Government, which pretty much Gantz and Bibi can do on their own, and show him the door.

[Boruch Parnes]

If labor would be ready to go into coalition they wouldve done it last election already

UTJ/Shas are for sure not in the best position right now

[ExGingi]

If labor would be ready to go into coalition they wouldve done it last election already

UTJ/Shas are for sure not in the best position right now

Labor is a different party now.

[Ergel]

If labor would be ready to go into coalition they wouldve done it last election already

I'm not sure that's a fair argument. Someone needs to blink. The country won't stand for another election.

UTJ/Shas are for sure not in the best position right now

It's crazy - they did as well as could have been expected and yet they still may get frozen out. I guess we'll see if the rabbonim's dire warnings come to be

[ExGingi]

https://m.ynet.co.il/Articles/5591778

[Boruch Parnes]

Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?

[ExGingi]

Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?

Because he can't.

[Yonah]

Why isnt anyone saying that Gantz can put together coalition with lieberman and the arabs?

... b/c I think Lieberman is more likely to cave into Bibi's demands than sit in a government with the Arabs

It's crazy - they did as well as could have been expected and yet they still may get frozen out. I guess we'll see if the rabbonim's dire warnings come to be

Regarding Shas/UTJ - again everyone is digging in their heels.

https://m.ynet.co.il/Articles/5591778

 In the lede in to this article it quote R' Litzman as saying - ליצמן: "לא יודע מי זה ליברמן. מוכן לשבת איתו אם הוא יניח תפילין וישמור שבת" - "I'll only meet with Lieberman when he puts on tefilin and keeps shabbos".

One interesting thing to note - based on demographics alone, within the next 10 years the Charedi bloc can easily get to 25 seats - just on demographics alone. From that point, it would be hard to form any government without them.

[Boruch Parnes]

One interesting thing to note - based on demographics alone, within the next 10 years the Charedi bloc can easily get to 25 seats - just on demographics alone. From that point, it would be hard to form any government without them.

+1 In the last few years they went up 2 seats   and so did shas

[ExGingi]

Brilliant first move. It's not B&W vs Likud, it's now B&W vs Right Wing Bloc.

https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1174353111978258432?s=21

[Yonah]

+1 In the last few years they went up 2 seats   and so did shas

Yes - but I believe that with the large Charedi Birth Rate and both the death of the true Israeli Left and the below replacement birthrates of the Secular community, They will get a big jump in the next decade or two.