Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2022 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 225627 times)

Offline mercaz1

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #320 on: September 18, 2019, 02:21:21 PM »
so will the arabs as they also have a high birthrate

Offline Yonah

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #321 on: September 18, 2019, 02:22:56 PM »
Brilliant first move. It's not B&W vs Likud, it's now B&W vs Right Wing Bloc.

https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1174353111978258432?s=21

It is a good move - that will increase the chances of a stalemate.

Peretz has said he won't sit with him. He still needs either Gantz or Lieberman to complete the the coalition. Lieberman will dig in on demands that this coalition can't meet. Gantz will only join in if he gets to share power.

Who else can join with him?

Offline BP16

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Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #323 on: September 18, 2019, 02:28:30 PM »
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/269108
BTDT.

Peretz has history.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amir_Peretz

Quote
He opposed Ehud Barak's decision to enter a coalition government headed by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu. In December 2012, he left the Labor Party to join Tzipi Livni's new Hatnuah party. As a result, he resigned from the Knesset, and was replaced by Yoram Marciano.

He was re-elected to the Knesset on the Hatnuah list in the 2013 elections, and was appointed Minister of Environmental Protection.

The only thing that changed is his shaving off his mustache.

This is how I see the playbook potentially unfolding:

Mandelblit holds hearing with Netanyahu, following which it is determined that there aren't sufficient grounds for an indictment, which gives a whole bunch of people (primary amongst them Peretz & Co) an explanation as to why they will join Netanyahu, as they said they won't join him as long as there's a pending indictment. Once there's no pending indictment, they can join.

This might also signal the breakup and demise of B&W whose sole raison d'ętre is anti Bibi (ostensibly due to corruption).
« Last Edit: September 18, 2019, 02:48:44 PM by ExGingi »
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Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #324 on: September 18, 2019, 03:02:05 PM »
https://www.inn.co.il/News/News.aspx/413349

This guy never minces words.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Online zh cohen

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #325 on: September 18, 2019, 03:40:33 PM »
Peretz has said he won't sit with him. He still needs either Gantz or Lieberman to complete the the coalition. Lieberman will dig in on demands that this coalition can't meet. Gantz will only join in if he gets to share power.

Who else can join with him?

What does Labor stand for? If they are focused on economic issues then Bibi can throw money at them to join the coalition, but if they are focused on the "peace process" I don't see how they can sit with the right wing parties.

Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #326 on: September 18, 2019, 04:05:32 PM »
THIS IS PRICELESS!!!!

I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline chevron

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #327 on: September 18, 2019, 05:21:28 PM »
IBG is an old friend, running alone tough wasted 75,301 votes so far.  Those votes to yamina / shas  likud etc would easily amount to 4-5 extra seats

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #328 on: September 18, 2019, 05:30:52 PM »
IBG is an old friend, running alone tough wasted 75,301 votes so far.  Those votes to yamina / shas  likud etc would easily amount to 4-5 extra seats
How is that worth 4-5 extra seats? The smallest party that made it in has 173k so far and 5 seats. At best, it's 3 seats divided between those parties. More likely that some of those voters would either stay home or vote for a different party that isn't making it in. I think it's a cost of 1-2 seats maximum.

Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #329 on: September 18, 2019, 05:40:46 PM »
How is that worth 4-5 extra seats? The smallest party that made it in has 173k so far and 5 seats. At best, it's 3 seats divided between those parties. More likely that some of those voters would either stay home or vote for a different party that isn't making it in. I think it's a cost of 1-2 seats maximum.

Exactly.

IBG would have been fun to see in the Knesset, but he acted like a total A*****e in this round. It was obvious that he has no chance of getting in AND EVERYONE WHO CARED TO THINK ABOUT IT, KNEW IT. He should have swallowed his pride and accepted whatever Yemina offered him. He might have gotten in and might have not, but wouldn't have wasted so many votes.

https://www.inn.co.il/News/News.aspx/413349

This guy never minces words.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Jellybelly

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #330 on: September 18, 2019, 07:05:51 PM »
@kolhaolam was reporting that the blue and white faction has 56 seats. Is that’s including the Arabs? Have they ever sat in a government before? Would they do it just to ruin Bibi?

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #331 on: September 18, 2019, 07:07:34 PM »
@kolhaolam was reporting that the blue and white faction has 56 seats. Is that’s including the Arabs? Have they ever sat in a government before? Would they do it just to ruin Bibi?
yes, no, maybe but unlikely.

Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #332 on: September 18, 2019, 09:44:17 PM »
Here's a reason why Netanyahu wouldn't form a unity government:

https://twitter.com/amit_segal/status/1174048837285138434
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline chevron

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #333 on: September 19, 2019, 12:01:31 AM »
How is that worth 4-5 extra seats? The smallest party that made it in has 173k so far and 5 seats. At best, it's 3 seats divided between those parties. More likely that some of those voters would either stay home or vote for a different party that isn't making it in. I think it's a cost of 1-2 seats maximum.

It can round things up. I.e. like top up some votes on other parties that would have carried over 4-5 seats.

I'm just speculating... It's also possible that some of otzama voter's may not have voted at all had they run with yamina.

But yes even if he cost the right 3 seats, that is huge!!

Online yelped

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #334 on: September 19, 2019, 12:14:59 AM »
It can round things up. I.e. like top up some votes on other parties that would have carried over 4-5 seats.

I'm just speculating... It's also possible that some of otzama voter's may not have voted at all had they run with yamina.

But yes even if he cost the right 3 seats, that is huge!!
Any reason they couldn't make the same leftover votes pact some on the left (I think) made? Isn't that a win-win situation?

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #335 on: September 19, 2019, 12:30:34 AM »
Here's a reason why Netanyahu wouldn't form a unity government:

https://twitter.com/amit_segal/status/1174048837285138434

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/269126

Quote
Asked if Joint List chairman Ayman Odeh will head the opposition, Tibi replied, “The law does not say that the head of the largest party in the opposition automatically becomes the leader of the opposition, but rather that any MK whom most of the MKs in the opposition recommend (will be the chairman of the opposition). An Arab MK will not be allowed to be the chairman of the opposition, so I tell you - this is a utopia.”

Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #336 on: September 19, 2019, 12:51:41 AM »
Any reason they couldn't make the same leftover votes pact some on the left (I think) made? Isn't that a win-win situation?

Leftover pact only works of both sides of the pact get in. Bigger question is why they couldn't create a unified front/bloc like the Arabs did!?


רבי יוסי ממלחיא ורבי יהושע דסכנין בשם רבי לוי אמרו: מצינו תינוקות בימי דוד, עד שלא טעמו טעם חטא - היו יודעין לדרוש את התורה מ"ט פנים טמא ומ"ט פנים טהור, והוה דוד מצלי עליהון. הדא הוא שדוד אומר 'אתה ה' תשמרם' - אתה ה' נטר אורייתהון בלבהון. 'תנצרם מן הדור זו לעולם' - מן הדור ההוא שהוא חייב כליה.

אחר כל השבח הזה, יוצאין למלחמה ונופלין?!

אלא ע"י שהיו בהם דלטורין היו נופלין.

....

אבל דורו של אחאב - כולן עובדי עבודת כוכבים היו, ועל ידי שלא היו בהן דילטורין - היו יוצאין למלחמה ונוצחין.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2019, 12:55:34 AM by ExGingi »
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Online ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #337 on: September 19, 2019, 08:49:00 AM »
Unofficial results:
B&W 33
Likud 31
Arabs 13
Shas 9
Lieberman 8
UTJ 8
Yemina 7
Labor 6
Democratic Camp 5
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Online CountValentine

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #338 on: September 19, 2019, 08:53:31 AM »
I thought our elections were messed up. This has my head spinning.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline Yonah

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #339 on: September 19, 2019, 09:11:58 AM »
I thought our elections were messed up. This has my head spinning.

I love trying to explain to colleagues that even though the election is over - it's far from over