Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 102222 times)

Offline Deal Guy

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #480 on: October 03, 2019, 01:01:40 AM »
If there is a next election, Bibi needs to make sure there are other secular right wing parties for people to vote for (especially if there is an indictment hanging over him).
There were too many center/right voters who couldn't get themselves to vote for Bibi, yet wouldn't vote for a religious Yamina party. Those votes defected to Lieberman, or even Blue and White. Arguably, all of Kachlon's voters (and Kachlon was no fan of Bibi to begin with,as that originally caused him to break away from Likud and make his own party) didn't vote for Likud and instead looked elsewhere. But with no other alternative than Lieberman or Blue and White, they voted there.

So he needs to make sure there is a secular right party, whether its Kachlon or Shaked ect, that can pass the threshold, yet unlike Lieberman, will join him, and won't be anti chareidi. There are too many voters who are ok with Bibi, yet aren't running to vote for him, and need a platform to vote for a center/right party.

Otzma, only costed the right 1 seat in the end, but they shouldn't run, and instead merge with the religious right, and add 2 seats there.

Offline chevron

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #481 on: October 03, 2019, 01:42:18 AM »
84k votes is 3 seats

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #482 on: October 03, 2019, 11:30:28 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #483 on: October 04, 2019, 10:10:21 AM »
If there is a next election, Bibi needs to make sure there are other secular right wing parties for people to vote for (especially if there is an indictment hanging over him).
There were too many center/right voters who couldn't get themselves to vote for Bibi, yet wouldn't vote for a religious Yamina party. Those votes defected to Lieberman, or even Blue and White. Arguably, all of Kachlon's voters (and Kachlon was no fan of Bibi to begin with,as that originally caused him to break away from Likud and make his own party) didn't vote for Likud and instead looked elsewhere. But with no other alternative than Lieberman or Blue and White, they voted there.

So he needs to make sure there is a secular right party, whether its Kachlon or Shaked ect, that can pass the threshold, yet unlike Lieberman, will join him, and won't be anti chareidi. There are too many voters who are ok with Bibi, yet aren't running to vote for him, and need a platform to vote for a center/right party.

Otzma, only costed the right 1 seat in the end, but they shouldn't run, and instead merge with the religious right, and add 2 seats there.
In the first round, Yamin hachadash didn't pass alone, so they remerged with BY, which at least in part, meant Otzmah was out.

At this point, unity is the best option, especially with complications from a 3 way rotation no longer practical. I think the plan is hopefully by stalling enough, the charges against bibi will be dropped, and then Likud/BW (who aren't so different ideologically) can sit together in rotation.

Offline Deal Guy

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #484 on: October 05, 2019, 09:36:26 PM »
In the first round, Yamin hachadash didn't pass alone, so they remerged with BY, which at least in part, meant Otzmah was out.

At this point, unity is the best option, especially with complications from a 3 way rotation no longer practical. I think the plan is hopefully by stalling enough, the charges against bibi will be dropped, and then Likud/BW (who aren't so different ideologically) can sit together in rotation.
The issue with Unity, is what happens with Shabbos, draft, schools ect.
Of course ideologically they can sit together, but if it excludes the 23 seats of Agudah, Shas and Yamina, there will be big problems, since Lapid and Lieberman have made their intentions clear.

Offline gozalim

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #485 on: October 06, 2019, 05:41:35 AM »
The issue with Unity, is what happens with Shabbos, draft, schools ect.
Of course ideologically they can sit together, but if it excludes the 23 seats of Agudah, Shas and Yamina, there will be big problems, since Lapid and Lieberman have made their intentions clear.
so the priorities of a strong Israeli state and of Torah Judaism are at odds. That's new
[ducks]

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #486 on: October 18, 2019, 10:55:00 AM »
2. They have publicly pledged to support Netanyahu in the previous elections. While this is a new round, and they might be a little more cautious here, I doubt it will change. They also know that Netanyahu is by far more capable than any of the other clowns. I think his successor might end up being Barkat, but that's years down the road, not now. If Israel would have direct personal election of the Prime Minister, Netanyahu would win it even if he stayed silent the entire campaign.

https://mobile.kikar.co.il/abroad/article/333202

Barkat seems to see things similarly.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #487 on: November 08, 2019, 02:42:13 PM »
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2019, 02:46:24 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #488 on: November 09, 2019, 08:20:30 PM »
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.

Lol. Totally OT, but my grandmother always loves to tell a story about Auman's 'genius' from their time in the same circles while in school in Boston. A bunch of orthodox students shared an apt, and the landlord kept the thermostat behind a lock, and much too low. His 'geonus' was to put a bag of frozen vegetable on it to trick it into keeping the heat on longer. :-P

Offline aygart

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #489 on: November 09, 2019, 11:13:41 PM »
Lol. Totally OT, but my grandmother always loves to tell a story about Auman's 'genius' from their time in the same circles while in school in Boston. A bunch of orthodox students shared an apt, and the landlord kept the thermostat behind a lock, and much too low. His 'geonus' was to put a bag of frozen vegetable on it to trick it into keeping the heat on longer. :-P

We did that in yeshive for the AC. We took a cup of hot water and put it into a hat which we hung on the sensor.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline itunes

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #490 on: November 11, 2019, 09:13:14 AM »
Netanyahu preparing for round 3. Appoints Bennett as defense minister and folds "the New Right" (Bennett and Shaked) into the Likud.

IMHO he should hire Israel Aumann as chief campaign strategist for the next election. They really need a master of game theory/strategy to get out of the current deadlock.
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Liberman-put-Netanyahu-and-Gantz-in-the-prisoners-dilemma-607509

Offline skyguy918

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #491 on: November 11, 2019, 09:44:40 AM »
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Liberman-put-Netanyahu-and-Gantz-in-the-prisoners-dilemma-607509
The funny thing is, if likud and b&w made a unity govt, they wouldn't actually need Lieberman to get the necessary seats. They wouldn't need anyone else for that matter, strictly speaking.

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #492 on: November 11, 2019, 10:23:25 AM »
The funny thing is, if likud and b&w made a unity govt, they wouldn't actually need Lieberman to get the necessary seats. They wouldn't need anyone else for that matter, strictly speaking.
It's not possible. Even with Lieberman, there no way gantz gets it without working with Arabs, and I'm pretty sure Lieberman won't let that happen.

Offline skyguy918

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #493 on: November 11, 2019, 10:42:14 AM »
It's not possible. Even with Lieberman, there no way gantz gets it without working with Arabs, and I'm pretty sure Lieberman won't let that happen.
What's not possible?

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #494 on: November 11, 2019, 10:46:38 AM »

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #495 on: November 11, 2019, 11:21:50 AM »
The math.
The math works just fine. I'm well aware that none of the options, including unity, seem more likely than not. My point is that Lieberman has clearly structured his gambit in a way that incentivizes  a unity gov - that's what he's been asking for the whole time. But if Likud and B&W did find a way to sit together and make a unity government, they wouldn't need Lieberman's seats to do that. 33+32 is 65, which is more than 60 last time I checked.

It sounds like you're referring to the scenario where Gantz 'compromises' and Netanyahu doesn't - that it doesn't work because it requires B&W to bring both YB and the Joint List to sit together. I agree with that, but it has nothing to do with the scenario I was talking about.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #496 on: November 11, 2019, 11:24:33 AM »
It sounds like you're referring to the scenario where Gantz 'compromises' and Netanyahu doesn't - that it doesn't work because it requires B&W to bring both YB and the Joint List to sit together. I agree with that, but it has nothing to do with the scenario I was talking about.

Yet if Gantz "compromises" why would Netanyahu need to do anything. Gantz's proposed "compromise" keeps Netanyahu as PM.
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #497 on: November 11, 2019, 11:26:06 AM »
The math works just fine. I'm well aware that none of the options, including unity, seem more likely than not. My point is that Lieberman has clearly structured his gambit in a way that incentivizes  a unity gov - that's what he's been asking for the whole time. But if Likud and B&W did find a way to sit together and make a unity government, they wouldn't need Lieberman's seats to do that. 33+32 is 65, which is more than 60 last time I checked.

It sounds like you're referring to the scenario where Gantz 'compromises' and Netanyahu doesn't - that it doesn't work because it requires B&W to bring both YB and the Joint List to sit together. I agree with that, but it has nothing to do with the scenario I was talking about.
Yes, I was commenting on Lieberman's prisoner's dilemma.

In theory if you're go unity, you'd rather have more seats so that you can neutralize the strongest ideologues on both sides. A 74 seat government can pass wider legislation than a 65 seat one can.

There also is a scenario where some of the 65 resign from their parties in opposition to unity.

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #498 on: November 11, 2019, 11:27:20 AM »
Yet if Gantz "compromises" why would Netanyahu need to do anything. Gantz's proposed "compromise" keeps Netanyahu as PM.
Lieberman thinks unity only works without charedim/right wing block.

Chareidim are a wild card - could they sit with Lapid as a high ranking minister but with no plan to be PM.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: 2019 Israeli election
« Reply #499 on: November 11, 2019, 11:33:30 AM »
Chareidim are a wild card - could they sit with Lapid as a high ranking minister but with no plan to be PM.

-1

Chareidim are the most predictable.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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