The answer is simple - how long has Liberman lasted in politics and how long will Gantz last. He'd be an idiot to follow Gantz's lead
Liberman is lasting only because he has a 5-seat die hard base of FSU immigrants who won't leave him. He has only fallen since his anti-Bibbi vendetta.
I'm not following. Did Saar say he wouldn't sit with Bibi?
Yes. The million dollar question is if he'll stick with it.
I don't think Sa'ar is stupid, but I fail to see his end-game. Does he really think he will lead a right or even "center-right" coalition against the Likud?
The polls show that's within reach, but if that doesn't work, he can squeeze some annexation or etc to justify sitting with Bibbi, and get a very senior position, compared to his lowly MK status now.
Aside from his personal position, if Sa'ar does sit with Bibbi, the right+charedim now have a whopping 70-80 seats, and can easily pass a justice system overhaul and any other agenda they want.
It was a brilliant move on Sa'ars part, he went from being an end of the line MK to the second most important politician in Israel. His only risk is that somehow he'll drop all the way from his 20-seat perch in the polls to not passing the entrance threshold and staying outside of the Kennset , but that would be an extreme outcome.