2019-2022 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)

[PlatinumGuy]

This is 57-59. What am I missing?

The polls that give them more.
In any case, I was addressing the claim that Likud + Charedim + Arabs have a floor of 53. That can still leave 67 for the above center/right parties if Meretz doesn’t get in.

[Jellybelly]

I thought I remember hearing that if elections are called, then Gantz takes over as PM.
 Is that true?

[ExGingi]

I thought I remember hearing that if elections are called, then Gantz takes over as PM.
 Is that true?

Only if the other side objected to the proposed budget (or caused some other failure). It was engineered in a way that Bibi stays until the election.

[Ergel]

Only if the other side objected to the proposed budget (or caused some other failure). It was engineered in a way that Bibi stays until the election.

In other words, Gantz got played. Would we expect anything else?
Gantz won't even make it into the next knesset

[Ergel]

First predictions:
Likud 26
Sa'ar 17
Lapid 16
Bennet 15
Arabs 14
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Lieberman 7
Meretz 4
Huldai 5

Next elections in June

[PlatinumGuy]

The million dollar question is if Sa'ar will be as stubborn as Liberman about sitting with Bibbi or as flexible as Gantz

[Ergel]

The million dollar question is if Sa'ar will be as stubborn as Liberman about sitting with Bibbi or as flexible as Gantz

The answer is simple - how long has Liberman lasted in politics and how long will Gantz last. He'd be an idiot to follow Gantz's lead

[yelped]

The million dollar question is if Sa'ar will be as stubborn as Liberman about sitting with Bibbi or as flexible as Gantz

I'm not following. Did Saar say he wouldn't sit with Bibi? If he does then the right wing+frum parties has a comfortable coalition without Lieberman.

[ExGingi]

The answer is simple - how long has Liberman lasted in politics and how long will Gantz last. He'd be an idiot to follow Gantz's lead

Gantz was never a politician. He didn't belong in this game. I don't think Sa'ar is stupid, but I fail to see his end-game. Does he really think he will lead a right or even "center-right" coalition against the Likud?

[PlatinumGuy]

The answer is simple - how long has Liberman lasted in politics and how long will Gantz last. He'd be an idiot to follow Gantz's lead

Liberman is lasting only because he has a 5-seat die hard base of FSU immigrants who won't leave him. He has only fallen since his anti-Bibbi vendetta.

I'm not following. Did Saar say he wouldn't sit with Bibi?

Yes. The million dollar question is if he'll stick with it.

I don't think Sa'ar is stupid, but I fail to see his end-game. Does he really think he will lead a right or even "center-right" coalition against the Likud?

The polls show that's within reach, but if that doesn't work, he can squeeze some annexation or etc to justify sitting with Bibbi, and get a very senior position, compared to his lowly MK status now.

Aside from his personal position, if Sa'ar does sit with Bibbi, the right+charedim now have a whopping 70-80 seats, and can easily pass a justice system overhaul and any other agenda they want.

It was a brilliant move on Sa'ars part, he went from being an end of the line MK to the second most important politician in Israel. His only risk is that somehow he'll drop all the way from his 20-seat perch in the polls to not passing the entrance threshold and staying outside of the Kennset , but that would be an extreme outcome.

[ExGingi]

His only risk is that somehow he'll drop all the way from his 20-seat perch in the polls to not passing the entrance threshold and staying outside of the Kennset , but that would be an extreme outcome.

Such things have happened in the past.

[PlatinumGuy]

Such things have happened in the past.

Can you give an example of a party that polled at ~20 3 months prior to election and ended up not making it into the Kennset? The closest I remember are Feiglin/Bennet etc that polled under 10.

[ExGingi]

https://www.israelhayom.co.il/interactive/amp/article/832549

And

https://www.haaretz.co.il/amp/opinions/.premium-1.9392300

[ExGingi]

Elkin jumped ship to Sa'ar.

[Ergel]

Elkin jumped ship to Sa'ar.

I wonder how much of an effect these defections have. Or are some people pro-Bibi and some Never-Bibi and it doesn't matter

[ExGingi]

I wonder how much of an effect these defections have. Or are some people pro-Bibi and some Never-Bibi and it doesn't matter

All the defections are of those that are disappointed for not landing at a higher position than they would like. Nothing ideological. (Except the ideology of self advancement).

[Ergel]

All the defections are of those that are disappointed for not landing at a higher position than they would like. Nothing ideological. (Except the ideology of self advancement).

Of course, still doesn't answer my question

[PlatinumGuy]

I wonder how much of an effect these defections have. Or are some people pro-Bibi and some Never-Bibi and it doesn't matter

Substantial politicians will keep Sa’ars party from dissipating. There is also no die-hard never Bibbi in the party yet - they all sat with Bibbi until last week

[Ergel]

Substantial politicians will keep Sa’ars party from dissipating. There is also no die-hard never Bibbi in the party yet - they all sat with Bibbi until last week

Maybe this whole thing is pre-planned and they are just trying to make it appear like it's an anti-Bibi party and in the end they will build a gov't under Netanyahu - Likud+Sa'ar+Bennet. Most right-wing gov't in Israel's history

[PlatinumGuy]

Maybe this whole thing is pre-planned and they are just trying to make it appear like it's an anti-Bibi party and in the end they will build a gov't under Netanyahu - Likud+Sa'ar+Bennet. Most right-wing gov't in Israel's history

So far if Sa'ar ends up sitting with Bibbi it's a huge win for everybody involved.

I don't think Sa'ar is coordinated with Bibbi, but some of his backers may be. Elkin may be coordinated with Bibbi, they are (were?) very close.