Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2022 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 225583 times)

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15618
  • Total likes: 7710
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive Platinum®
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #840 on: February 08, 2021, 09:14:05 AM »
https://www.haaretz.co.il/amp/opinions/.premium-1.9518944

Ultra left is desperate in their anti Bibi thoughts.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Happyguy

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: Sep 2018
  • Posts: 673
  • Total likes: 580
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #841 on: February 09, 2021, 04:00:43 AM »



Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30533
  • Total likes: 7829
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #842 on: February 09, 2021, 06:27:55 AM »


Is it true that a kollel family in Israel cost the State only 750NIS/month?
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Offline JlmBoi

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Jul 2020
  • Posts: 969
  • Total likes: 502
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #843 on: February 09, 2021, 06:47:32 AM »
Is it true that a kollel family in Israel cost the State only 750NIS/month?
Def more. Notice its focused on the avrech himself not whole family. Even that number varies alot. Cost the state is a whole nother calculation. We pay so much VAT, if the military spend wasn't so high I believe the government would be from the richest.
The chiddush of DDF is the way Dan Deals with all us crazies 🤪

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #844 on: February 09, 2021, 08:56:39 AM »
We pay so much VAT, if the military spend wasn't so high I believe the government would be from the richest.
That’s not really how governments become wealthy.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15618
  • Total likes: 7710
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive Platinum®
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #845 on: February 09, 2021, 09:08:13 AM »
That’s not really how governments become wealthy.

#graft is how they become wealthy.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Moshe123

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Sep 2012
  • Posts: 5935
  • Total likes: 911
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Spring Valley
  • Programs: Lost
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #846 on: February 09, 2021, 01:07:37 PM »
Legally doesn't matter, even if Bagatz said so. Everything gets pushed off due to elections according to a חוק יסוד.

‏בגץ קבע: מועד פקיעת חוק גיוס החרדים נדחה עד אחרי הבחירות

‏עמדה כאן שאלה משפטית - מצד אחד, על פי החלטת בגץ מ2019 החוק פקע בשבוע שעבר, אך מצד שני - חוק יסוד הכנסת מאריך את פקיעת החוק עד 3 חודשים אחרי הבחירות. כעת בגץ קבע כי ישנה עליונות בסוגיה הזו לחוק היסוד

No surprise

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #847 on: February 09, 2021, 10:19:58 PM »
Radical case scenario for Bibbi:

Polls tend to discount the Likud by ~5 seats, so that puts him at 35 (same as they got in the last elections). Zalika, B&W/Gantz, Raam, Meretz, & Labor may all not pass but wast 15% of the vote (4 out of 5 almost definitely won't pass), which gives the Likud a 20% boost to 42. Shas and Gimmel retain their 16 + 20% for 19, giving the Likud + Charedim a government of 61. 

A less extreme outcome is for Labor to get in, bringing the Likud down to 39 and Charedim to 17, but Smotrich gets 5 which gives them 61.

A very likely outcome is for Labor to get in, the Likud to still be only 30-35, Charedim 15, and then if Smotrich gets in they can form a government with Bennet or Saar, and if Smotrich doesn't get in they need Saar.

Radical worst case scenario for Bibbi:

B&W, Meretz, Labor, and Raam get in, Lapid gets 18, Bennet 10, Saar 13, Liberman 7, creating a bloc of 61 anti-Bibbi seats even without the Arab parties, however, it all hinges on them all convalescing behind a single leader and somehow forming a government when the only thing they have in common is a desire too unseat Bibbi. Ego is very likely to impede that, especially if Saar and Lapid are closer together and there isn't a clear leader.

״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline yfr bachur

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Sep 2018
  • Posts: 1054
  • Total likes: 1245
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Yerusholayim -> נחליאל
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #848 on: February 10, 2021, 10:07:01 AM »
Radical case scenario for Bibbi:

Polls tend to discount the Likud by ~5 seats, so that puts him at 35 (same as they got in the last elections). Zalika, B&W/Gantz, Raam, Meretz, & Labor may all not pass but wast 15% of the vote (4 out of 5 almost definitely won't pass), which gives the Likud a 20% boost to 42. Shas and Gimmel retain their 16 + 20% for 19, giving the Likud + Charedim a government of 61. 

A less extreme outcome is for Labor to get in, bringing the Likud down to 39 and Charedim to 17, but Smotrich gets 5 which gives them 61.

A very likely outcome is for Labor to get in, the Likud to still be only 30-35, Charedim 15, and then if Smotrich gets in they can form a government with Bennet or Saar, and if Smotrich doesn't get in they need Saar.

Radical worst case scenario for Bibbi:

B&W, Meretz, Labor, and Raam get in, Lapid gets 18, Bennet 10, Saar 13, Liberman 7, creating a bloc of 61 anti-Bibbi seats even without the Arab parties, however, it all hinges on them all convalescing behind a single leader and somehow forming a government when the only thing they have in common is a desire too unseat Bibbi. Ego is very likely to impede that, especially if Saar and Lapid are closer together and there isn't a clear leader.

In these elections there are three possibilities:
1)Bibi Win
2)Anti Bibi Win
3)Stalemate (like after three of the last four elections)

Anti Bibi can only win if they have 61 seats who will sit together. It is almost impossible to see a scenario where Bennet and/or Liberman sit in a Govt with the likes of Meretz/Labour, and vice versa.
Stalemate wins if neither the Bibi or Anti Bibi can come to 61...this possible because it's even more unfathomable to see bennet/saar/liberman/gantz (to various degrees) sitting with the arab parties.
Bibi wins if he can convince 61 MKs to support him. Whatever the leaders of the Center-Right parties say now...lets see how much they really believe in "Never Bibi" after the elections. Israeli election declarations after the elections are worth less than an esrog after sukkos... In Bibi's favor is the fact that there will likely not be any "wasted" vote on the right vs the high likelihood of "wasted" votes for the left and Arab parties.

Interesting/important question
Has the last year caused any significant proportion of the Chareidi electorate to become disillusioned with Gimel, or to support the Peleg/Eida veiwpoint on elections?


Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #849 on: February 10, 2021, 01:12:36 PM »
Has the last year caused any significant proportion of the Chareidi electorate to become disillusioned with Gimel, or to support the Peleg/Eida veiwpoint on elections?
Nobody is moving towards the Peleg, if it would've happened, it would've been from Chassiduses that felt disenfranchised.
What is likely to happen is some movement towards Smotrich from the liberal fringe of Gimmel, and the question is if it will be 10k votes or 100k. It's the only way Smotrich gets in (polls previously pretended Ben Gvir and Feiglen would get in), so it would be good for Bibbi.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline JlmBoi

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Jul 2020
  • Posts: 969
  • Total likes: 502
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #850 on: February 10, 2021, 05:53:01 PM »
Nobody is moving towards the Peleg, if it would've happened, it would've been from Chassiduses that felt disenfranchised.
What is likely to happen is some movement towards Smotrich from the liberal fringe of Gimmel, and the question is if it will be 10k votes or 100k. It's the only way Smotrich gets in (polls previously pretended Ben Gvir and Feiglen would get in), so it would be good for Bibbi.
Wouldn't Ben gvir + smotrich get in just from their union without charedi votes? Anyway, I have a feeling many many charedim will be voting for him.
The chiddush of DDF is the way Dan Deals with all us crazies 🤪

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #851 on: February 10, 2021, 06:42:17 PM »
Wouldn't Ben gvir + smotrich get in just from their union without charedi votes?
I very highly doubt it. Ben Gvir is worth 80,000 votes at most, and Smotrich has no proven electorate. Even with Charedi voters they are very likely not to get in.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15618
  • Total likes: 7710
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive Platinum®
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #852 on: February 10, 2021, 07:47:10 PM »
In these elections there are three possibilities:
1)Bibi Win
2)Anti Bibi Win
3)Stalemate (like after three of the last four elections)

Anti Bibi can only win if they have 61 seats who will sit together. It is almost impossible to see a scenario where Bennet and/or Liberman sit in a Govt with the likes of Meretz/Labour, and vice versa.
Stalemate wins if neither the Bibi or Anti Bibi can come to 61...this possible because it's even more unfathomable to see bennet/saar/liberman/gantz (to various degrees) sitting with the arab parties.
Bibi wins if he can convince 61 MKs to support him. Whatever the leaders of the Center-Right parties say now...lets see how much they really believe in "Never Bibi" after the elections. Israeli election declarations after the elections are worth less than an esrog after sukkos... In Bibi's favor is the fact that there will likely not be any "wasted" vote on the right vs the high likelihood of "wasted" votes for the left and Arab parties.

Interesting/important question
Has the last year caused any significant proportion of the Chareidi electorate to become disillusioned with Gimel, or to support the Peleg/Eida veiwpoint on elections?

Given the impossibility of coalescing together of the anti-Bibbi camp (Sa'ar, Bennet, just to name to pivot forces that might have serious problems with the rest of the anti-Bibbi camp) this is just as much of a stalemate as more "classical" stalemates.

Nobody is moving towards the Peleg, if it would've happened, it would've been from Chassiduses that felt disenfranchised.
What is likely to happen is some movement towards Smotrich from the liberal fringe of Gimmel, and the question is if it will be 10k votes or 100k. It's the only way Smotrich gets in (polls previously pretended Ben Gvir and Feiglen would get in), so it would be good for Bibbi.

Unfortunately I think Smotrich/Ben Gvir are likely to get many votes in Kfar Chabad and other Chabad communities. It's a lot more palatable than previous "religious zionist" lists, as it doesn't include the liberal/MO faction, and actually is expected to pass the threshold. Couple that with a dislike for Gafni, and I can easily see Smotritch/Ben Gvir getting more votes than Gimmel (which IMHO might be wrong, but luckily I don't vote in the Israeli elections so I am exempt from making a decision).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #853 on: February 10, 2021, 08:39:36 PM »
Unfortunately I think Smotrich/Ben Gvir are likely to get many votes in Kfar Chabad and other Chabad communities. It's a lot more palatable than previous "religious zionist" lists, as it doesn't include the liberal/MO faction, and actually is expected to pass the threshold. Couple that with a dislike for Gafni, and I can easily see Smotritch/Ben Gvir getting more votes than Gimmel (which IMHO might be wrong, but luckily I don't vote in the Israeli elections so I am exempt from making a decision).
I assume you mean more votes than Gimmel in Kfar Chabad. Suggesting Smotrcih will get more overall votes than Gimmel is ridiculous.

The polls that show him getting in also showed Fieglin and Ben Gvir getting in in the past.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15618
  • Total likes: 7710
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive Platinum®
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #854 on: February 10, 2021, 08:49:47 PM »
I assume you mean more votes than Gimmel in Kfar Chabad. Suggesting Smotrcih will get more overall votes than Gimmel is ridiculous.

The polls that show him getting in also showed Fieglin and Ben Gvir getting in in the past.
Obviously, I was talking only about the vote amongst those that consider themselves affiliated with Chabad. I think both Smotritch/Ben Gvir and Shais take away Gimmel votes within that electorate.

The current playing field is very different than the one where Feiglin and Ben Gvir had some polls getting them in where they didn’t.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15618
  • Total likes: 7710
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive Platinum®
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #855 on: February 10, 2021, 10:33:57 PM »
https://www.kikar.co.il/amp/385319

Some of these young guys should be reading יהדות התורה והמדינה. They really don't know what's wrong with zionism.

When Ben Gvir was running alone I really wondered how people would reconcile voting for him with his advocating going onto הר הבית, against the ruling of (almost) all Halachic authorities (it was an explicit part of his platform IIRC).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline yfr bachur

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Sep 2018
  • Posts: 1054
  • Total likes: 1245
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Yerusholayim -> נחליאל
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #856 on: February 11, 2021, 04:57:15 AM »
Nobody is moving towards the Peleg, if it would've happened, it would've been from Chassiduses that felt disenfranchised.
What is likely to happen is some movement towards Smotrich from the liberal fringe of Gimmel, and the question is if it will be 10k votes or 100k. It's the only way Smotrich gets in (polls previously pretended Ben Gvir and Feiglen would get in), so it would be good for Bibbi.

I don't mean that in the last year they went from going to vote to now sitting in the street blocking traffic because some bachur is in jail.
I mean: Influenced to stop voting. There were/are people who were/are on the fence about voting.

I do agree that it is likely that members of the Chardal kehillos who were uncomfortable with the previous Dati Leumi lists, will vote for Smotrich. His deal with Ben Gvir also includes Noam , (which I believe is) the party of Har HaMor, the more chareidi part of the datal spectrum.
It's a three party block, I would be shocked if it didn't get in.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2021, 05:05:08 AM by yfr bachur »

Offline Ergel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 12818
  • Total likes: 905
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #857 on: February 11, 2021, 07:00:36 AM »
Some of these young guys should be reading יהדות התורה והמדינה. They really don't know what's wrong with zionism.
Please enlighten us, what's wrong with zionism?
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline Ergel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 12818
  • Total likes: 905
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #858 on: February 11, 2021, 07:18:14 AM »
I heard an interview today with Porush on Kol Baramah. He was being asked about this - Charedim abandoning gimmel and voting for Smotrich/Ben Gvir.
He first dismissed it out of hand, saying that every election cycle there is talk about charedim moving to Likud or Bennet and there is even polling indicating that and it never plays out (a better interviewer would have asked here about the mayoral elections in Beit Shemesh, but I digress)
They followed up and said - that's different - to vote Likud or Bennet you really have to put your frumkeit on the side, but this is a true dati party.
He responded that anyone who feels מושמד as a charedi will understand that they need to vote for gimmel. Smotrich won't take care of you - he will take care of bnei akiva, not charedim (he ignored the question as to why he couldn't care for both). He added, if anything there are dati leumi/chardalniks who empathize with the plight of the charedim as an oppressed people and will vote gimmel in solidarity.

I honestly find the argument to be so weak - vote for us because you are an oppressed victim and we are the only ones who will defend you. Such a negative propaganda based campaign.

I think gimmel has 3 sets of voters:
1. Those who ideologically are in line with the party
2. Those who fear the propaganda and think without the party, the state will raid them at night and shmad their children
3. Those who are reluctant to vote against the gedolim and fear going up to shamayim and having to answer why they didn't put their lot with the charedim ldvar hashem (for the record I'm part of this group)

I wonder what percentage fit into group 2 and group 3 and at what point the grip will be loosened and they will start to lose those voters in large numbers
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30533
  • Total likes: 7829
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #859 on: February 11, 2021, 09:17:48 AM »
[quote author=ExGingi link=topic=102114.msg2402778#msg2402778 date=1613014437
Some of these young guys should be reading יהדות התורה והמדינה. They really don't know what's wrong with zionism.
[/quote]

PDF please?
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael