My earlier confidence was clearly overblown but I still think Bibbi gets 61. There are around 400k special ballots, from which the army's tilt hard right, although it's hard to predict the others since its a new Covid phenomena.
Raam is for sure in with 155,000 votes already counted (the entrance threshold is ~135,000). That means if everybody observes their pre-election commitments, there will be 5th elections.
If Bibbi gets 61, he will likely take Saar and/or Gantz or at least part of their parties to avoid being beholden to Ben Gvir & Avi Maoz.
If Bibbi gets 60 or under, the immediate question is whom Rivlin nominates. There is no way Bennet will recommend Lapid, which means Lapid needs the Arab Joint List, Gantz, & Saar or Raam to have more recommendations than Bibbi. Gantz & Saar seem likely, the Joint List plausible, and Raam unlikely - Lapid is claiming they scheduled a meeting and Raam is vocally denying it.
If Lapid gets the mandate, it would be a herculean task to entice Bennet enough, likely necessitating giving him first place in a PM rotation. Assuming Lapid is willing to do it, as he's been saying he is (although it's probably against his personal political interests), it would still take an ideologically polar coalition to agree on a moratorium on any contentious changes to the status quo, and even if they're all willing to accept a freeze on their aggressive polar agendas, they still need to find something universal enough to coalesce around - replacing Bibbi won't hold them together for too long, and then they still need Raam to support them. It's a series of hoops they are extremely unlikely to jump through. There won't be any deserters from the Likud or Charedim.
There is always the possibility for a Lapid government without Bennet leaning on the Arab Joint List at least to abstain, but the Joint List won't rush to support it, and it won't last past the first rocket from Gaza so it would be political suicide on Saars behalf.
If Bibbi gets the mandate (Rivlin may able to give it to Lapid alone and then call for elections, depending a lot on if the Arabs recommend Lapid or not), there is no way he makes a narrow government with Raam. It will be a short lived government with Ben Gvir, Maoz, and Raam trying to share a bed, and Bibbi wouldn't risk it. The Arab street is especially resistant to Ben Gvir & even Smotrich. If they do 61 without Ben Gvir & Smotrich, it will only take 1 deserter from Bennet or the Likud to spoil the party.
Though I do think if Bibbi gets the mandate, Saar will sit with him. It's his only pathway to remain employed. Bibbi will give them the house. Gantz is more likely to join personality wise, but he has much more to gain by stalling for 5th elections and possibly becoming the interim PM in November if 75 MKs can't agree to cancel him.
At the end of the day, Saar is the kingmaker. He can make Lapid PM even without Bennet, and he can make Bibbi PM with a guaranteed Bennet. The question is, what can anybody give him that will somehow make him relevant?
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