Poll

Who are you leaning towards?

Likud
5 (17.2%)
Blue and White
0 (0%)
Shas
0 (0%)
Charedi Parties(UTJ Aguda)
15 (51.7%)
Labor
2 (6.9%)
Zeut
1 (3.4%)
Meretz
0 (0%)
Yisroel Bateinu
0 (0%)
New Right (Bennet, Shaked)
1 (3.4%)
Kahane Parties
5 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Voting closed: April 09, 2019, 05:19:44 AM

Author Topic: 2019-2022 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)  (Read 225825 times)

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1040 on: March 25, 2021, 01:05:12 PM »
A bit extreme, but my money is on Bibbi+Michaeli government. Everybody else is the anti-Bibbi camp stands for nothing and therefore has nothing to gain so Bibbi has nothing to offer them and win them over. Last time he gave Gantz a second place rotation in PM, but nobody will fall for that again. Saar will never win any seats again, Gantz & Liberman put removing Bibbi as their sole agenda, the only thing Lapid stands for other than removing Bibbi is anti-religion and Bibbi can't go there, and Meretz is way too far left for anybody else to join (supports investigating Israel in The Hague).

Merav Michaeli on the other hand charsimatically revived the labor party from the ashes with an ideological liberal agenda focusing mostly on feminist rights, and she aspires to replace Lapid as the leader of left wing public. The labor party also owns very valuable income-producing real estate, so she is the least beholden to capricious anti-Bibbi donors.  Bibbi can make her foreign minister putting her in the constant limelight, give her some progressive wins like specialized sexual offense courts that she campaigned for, and the opportunity to attempt to end the Arab-Israeli conflict by including an Arab party like Raam (UAL) in the government coalition (in return for accepting Israel as a Jewish country and denouncing terror) and more normalization in the Middle East. She would stand a realistic chance of growing her base to 10+ seats rom the perch of a dominant and proven leader, and that's enough to form a block with Lapid with her being #1 and a serious candidate for PM.

It also gives Bibbi the eternal centrist the excuse he always loves to avoid right wing moves like annexation and the international acclaim of leading a true unity government that represents the full spectrum of Israeli politics, setting aside Yes Bibbi/No Bibbi.

In his victory speech below, Bibbi uncharacteristically imitated Michaeli and constantly used the feminine pronouns, which made me think he's angling there. Yes, Bibbi tried taking the Labor before and Michaeli blocked it, but that was when she wasn't #1 and didn't have what to gain.


« Last Edit: March 25, 2021, 01:47:26 PM by PlatinumGuy »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1041 on: March 25, 2021, 01:11:22 PM »
הקנאה והתאוה והכבוד מוציאין את האדם מן העולם
Somebody once asked R Ahron Leib Steinman which shul he should lain in -  one that is less prestigious but pays better, or one that is more 'Chashuv' but pays less? He laughed and said he appreciated that someone is asking directly what most questions ultimately boil down to. Which is better, money or Kavod?

For people like Gantz and Saar, joining Bibbi is money and employment but boycotting Bibbi is Kavod and media embrace. IMHO Michaeli is the one who can potentially get both in the long run by sitting with Bibbi.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2021, 01:14:28 PM by PlatinumGuy »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Moshe123

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1042 on: March 25, 2021, 01:19:00 PM »
Best option for the right is Bennet voting to ban Netanyahu from being able to form a government and then offer the Likud to form a rightist government with Saar and without Ben Gvir.
Problem is that Bennett doesn't have the tactical smarts.

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1043 on: March 25, 2021, 01:34:16 PM »
Best option for the right is Bennet voting to ban Netanyahu from being able to form a government and then offer the Likud to form a rightist government with Saar and without Ben Gvir.
Problem is that Bennett doesn't have the tactical smarts.
It's a tactical fallacy. They can't ban Bibbi from forming a government in this election (supreme court will strike it down), and if they ban him now he will win in a landslide and revoke the law after he wins. It's just a talking point for trolls like Liberman.

The Likud also won't desert Bibbi, they are more powerful in a stalemate with him than without him. If they get rid of him the government will collapse shortly anyways and they'll shrink in the elections. In the meantime they're controlling massive temporary budgets which are much more flexible.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Dan

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1044 on: March 25, 2021, 01:52:30 PM »
The biggest problem with changing the rules is you need a majority to approve said rule change. And each side will only support the rule change that will favor them
How did it get changed to PM voting and away from PM voting in the past?
What was the impetus to go each direction?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1045 on: March 25, 2021, 01:55:18 PM »
How did it get changed to PM voting and away from PM voting in the past?
What was the impetus to go each direction?
IINM it changed in 2001 because in direct elections the PM/Cabinet couldn't accomplish anything without having a majority in the Kennset. The issue now isn't the mechanism but the actual tie. Nobody will promote a solution that isn't clear which way it will decide it.

Every solution boils down to Bibbi yes or no, and the same stalemate. Bibbi would win direct elections by a landslide so the left will never agree to it.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Dan

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1046 on: March 25, 2021, 01:57:29 PM »
IINM it changed in 2001 because in direct elections the PM/Cabinet couldn't accomplish anything without having a majority in the Kennset. The issue now isn't the mechanism but the actual tie. Nobody will promote a solution that isn't clear which way it will decide it.
Seems like Likud/center-right ideology would have more than 60 seats if not for people opposing Bibi because he's Bibi.
Take that off the negotiating table and they'll support a center-right ideology...
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1047 on: March 25, 2021, 02:03:11 PM »
Seems like Likud/center-right ideology would have more than 60 seats if not for people opposing Bibi because he's Bibi.
Take that off the negotiating table and they'll support a center-right ideology...
Right, but to take it off the table means either yes Bibbi or no Bibbi and there's a stalemate around that. There is noting tangible the center-right wants to accomplish that they can't do now and transcends Bibbi. IMHO, Michaeli has an agenda that can potentially trump ousting Bibbi, but I don't know if she has the courage.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1048 on: March 25, 2021, 02:11:27 PM »
Right, but to take it off the table means either yes Bibbi or no Bibbi and there's a stalemate around that. There is noting tangible the center-right wants to accomplish that they can't do now and transcends Bibbi. IMHO, Michaeli has an agenda that can potentially trump ousting Bibbi, but I don't know if she has the courage.

Sort of. There are those who vote for smaller parties but would vote for Bibbi in a direct election too.

One of the issues at the time was that the chareid parties were against having people place a vote for Bibbi personally but rather he remain a tool of theirs. Many were upset at how Bibi became the big רשכבה"ג in that election similar to what happened with Trump here but much more so.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1049 on: March 25, 2021, 02:16:14 PM »
Sort of. There are those who vote for smaller parties but would vote for Bibbi in a direct election too.
I meant, any way of changing the system to resolve the lumberjack is either pro Bibbi, anti Bibbi, or a safek, and ends up in the same stalemate.

To make it simple, you need 51% to govern in Israel, but the Arabs are 10-15% and it's practically impossible to form a government with them. That leaves the Pro-Bibbi and Anti-Bibbi camps each with 40 to 50%, enough seats to block the other but not enough to oust the other. Somebody needs to renege on their commitment.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1050 on: March 25, 2021, 02:18:51 PM »
I meant, any way of changing the system to resolve the lumberjack is either pro Bibbi, anti Bibbi, or a safek, and ends up in the same stalemate.

To make it simple, you need 51% to govern in Israel, but the Arabs are 10-15% and it's practically impossible to form a government with them. That leaves the Pro-Bibbi and Anti-Bibbi camps each with 40 to 50%, enough seats to block the other but not enough to oust the other. Somebody needs to renege on their commitment.
Which is why the American system would be mauch more stable and they can just vote on each law policy by policy.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1051 on: March 25, 2021, 02:27:00 PM »
Which is why the American system would be mauch more stable and they can just vote on each law policy by policy.
The American system takes power away from the minorities. It would be a disaster for the frum. It also takes power away from politicians and turns them into mere lawmakers, so they aren't motivated to do to themselves. America had to revolt against the parliamentary system and start afresh with the separation of powers.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1052 on: March 25, 2021, 02:30:42 PM »
The American system takes power away from the minorities. It would be a disaster for the frum. It also takes power away from politicians and turns them into mere lawmakers, so they aren't motivated to do to themselves. America had to revolt against the parliamentary system and start afresh with the separation of powers.
correct. Part of the reason the chareidi parties were against such a system.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1053 on: March 25, 2021, 05:17:48 PM »
Direct voting for PM. Easy solution.
IIRC that is how BiBi won his first time. But the prime minister would still need a coalition to govern.

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1054 on: March 25, 2021, 05:33:29 PM »
Sa’ar seems to be speeding straight into a concrete wall with his eyes wide open.

השנאה והתאוה והכבוד מוציאים את האדם מן העולם.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1055 on: March 25, 2021, 05:47:37 PM »
IIRC that is how BiBi won his first time. But the prime minister would still need a coalition to govern.
Seems like Likud/center-right ideology would have more than 60 seats if not for people opposing Bibi because he's Bibi.
Take that off the negotiating table and they'll support a center-right ideology...
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

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I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1057 on: March 25, 2021, 07:46:09 PM »
Seems like Likud/center-right ideology would have more than 60 seats if not for people opposing Bibi because he's Bibi.
Take that off the negotiating table and they'll support a center-right ideology...

https://twitter.com/yotyotam/status/1375198264820174857
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1058 on: March 25, 2021, 07:53:42 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

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Re: 2019-2021 Israeli Election (See Also: Definition Of Insanity)
« Reply #1059 on: March 26, 2021, 02:18:44 AM »
Right, but to take it off the table means either yes Bibbi or no Bibbi and there's a stalemate around that.

Would Bibi take the job of President (with a pardon)?