At the end of the day, Saar is the kingmaker. He can make Lapid PM even without Bennet, and he can make Bibbi PM with a guaranteed Bennet. The question is, what can anybody give him that will somehow make him relevant?
Saar is the kingmaker. With the Arabs, Lapid has a government without Bennet (but Saar appears to be blocking it). Without the Arabs, Lapid doesn't have a government even with Bennet. Saar can give Bibbi a government without the Arabs, in which case Bennet is taken for granted, but Bennet alone cannot give Bibbi a gov't without Arabs. The only thing Bennet can do is block Bibbi from a narrow government with the UAL Arabs, but so can Smotrich.
If there is another round of elections, Bennet & Saar may run together, they are both too close to staying out.
Saar׳s recommendation shortly will decide who has more recommendations for the mandate to attempt to form a government. Bibbi has 52, Lapid has 47. If Saar gives it to Lapid, he has 53. Since Israel was founded, the president always assigned the mandate to the candidate with the most recommendations. Rivlin has made conflicting statements on whether or not he’ll stick to it, but he probably will (he doesn’t like Bibbi and nobody else has a realistic chance of success worth departing from precedent).
As it seems Saar will support Bennet, it looks like Bennet has the only thing that can help Saar survive - uniting with him so he isn’t threatened by the entrance threshold.
When is next election taking place?
Aug 31 if Rivlin gives the mandate once and not twice. End of Sep if he gives it twice. Some talk of him not giving it at all which would make it earlier, but it’s not clear he has that option without resigning (in which case his authority would transfer to the Chairman of the Kennset, Likud rep Yariv Levin.
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