Author Topic: James Holzhauer  (Read 3404 times)

Offline DealKiller

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #60 on: June 04, 2019, 09:51:11 PM »
He was right. She did exactly what he thought she would. Could be he studied past bets to know what the leader would most likely do in that situation.
Yes he was right. She should have bet $1 and she could not lose even if she answered wrong. Would he still be right then?

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #61 on: June 04, 2019, 09:55:51 PM »
Yes he was right. She should have bet $1 and she could not lose even if she answered wrong. Would he still be right then?
I don't understand the what ifs. He made a bet based on what he thought she would bet, she bet that amount, but she got it right, so it's moot.

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #62 on: June 04, 2019, 10:05:40 PM »
I don't understand the what ifs. He made a bet based on what he thought she would bet, she bet that amount, but she got it right, so it's moot.
You are 100% correct it was based on what he thought she would do. Because he guessed right that does not equate to the correct bet.

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #63 on: June 04, 2019, 10:14:31 PM »
You are 100% correct it was based on what he thought she would do. Because he guessed right that does not equate to the correct bet.

He likely based it in what most (good) players would do in her situation.

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Offline DealKiller

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #64 on: June 04, 2019, 10:20:05 PM »
He likely based it in what most (good) players would do in her situation.
That brings us to the next question. If she is a good player wouldn't she guess James would do that and just bet $1 and be guaranteed the win, right or wrong on final question?
A pretty good bet he was just playing the odds. Very seldom will they get players on that show that understand odds. They are geeks!!!  :)

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #65 on: June 04, 2019, 10:25:13 PM »
If she is a good player wouldn't she guess James would do that and just bet $1 and be guaranteed the win, right or wrong on final question?
but then maybe she thought that he expected her to think that he would do that so he went all in.

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #66 on: June 04, 2019, 10:25:37 PM »
That brings us to the next question. If she is a good player wouldn't she guess James would do that and just bet $1 and be guaranteed the win, right or wrong on final question?
A pretty good bet he was just playing the odds. Very seldom will they get players on that show that understand odds. They are geeks!!!  :)
Bear in mind winners get to keep what they earn. So by betting more and getting it right, she earned herself a good chunk of money... In the same way that betting high on Daily Doubles works, betting high in Final works if you think you are very likely to get it wrong.

You balance risk and reward. She bet enough to clinch the victory if she was right, while simultaneously ending with a high total.

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #67 on: June 04, 2019, 10:28:11 PM »
but then maybe she thought that he expected her to think that he would do that so he went all in.
There it is in a nutshell. You just don't know. He guessed right.

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #68 on: June 04, 2019, 11:11:11 PM »
Yes he was right. She should have bet $1 and she could not lose even if she answered wrong. Would he still be right then?
I don't understand the whole game, but I am intrigued by the math. From what it sounds this bet was the best chance for a win. Had she bet $1 he had no chance either way so he may as well give himself the chance to win if she bets higher.
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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #69 on: June 04, 2019, 11:11:27 PM »
There it is in a nutshell. You just don't know. He guessed right.
I would guess that 99% of the ppl would bet the amount that guarantees a victory if they get the answer right.
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Offline Geshmak25

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #70 on: June 04, 2019, 11:14:35 PM »
TBH I think SHE made the wrong bet. She shouldve bet everything she had. With the large bet that she placed she was going to lose if she got the answer wrong. So may as well grab the most money if she gets the answer right.
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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #71 on: June 04, 2019, 11:40:17 PM »
The different bets James had to account for -
1. That Emma would bet enough keep James out of reach no matter what. Correct, Emma wins, wrong, James wins.
2. That Emma would bet $0-1 on the chance that James was playing not to lose. Correct or false, Emma wins.
   
What I don't understand - the only way James bet makes sense is if he wasn't confident that he was right.
However, James was batting 97% (33/34) in Finals, and he also seemed pretty confident in his answer. There was a chance that Emma would choose option 2, and I reckon there was a better chance of happening than the 3% chance of James being wrong. Just go all in.
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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #72 on: June 04, 2019, 11:50:35 PM »
There was no chance Emma would choose anything besides what she did based on the rest of her game.
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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #73 on: June 05, 2019, 12:31:17 AM »
but then maybe she thought that he expected her to think that he would do that so he went all in.
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: James Holzhauer
« Reply #74 on: June 05, 2019, 09:33:40 AM »
There was no chance Emma would choose anything besides what she did based on the rest of her game.

Emma may as well have bet everything because if she were wrong, she would have lost anyway. In a certain sense, she left money on the table. She should have assumed that she was only winning if she got the answer correct and just bet 100% since you don't get to keep your money for 2nd place anyway.

Obviously, I don't fault her in anyway as in that small amount of time you have for wagers (and her not actually knowing anything about James), and her not being a pro-gambler.