Is there a consensus on Tzedakah's for this year's SBS?
I think the status is that Amex has clearly made efforts this year to exclude charities, by not including them in the map. That being said, there are plenty of charities that are not designated as businesses in their Amex profiles, so those are included in the map, and it's safe to assume they will be in the promotion.
So the big question that remains, is how proactive Amex will be this year about excluding charities, and whether they have actually blocked merchants designated as charities from participating in the promotion. And the only way to know for sure, will be to charge your card on 11/30, and see what happens. I find it interesting though that there are quite a few charities (though far less than last year) who have been running SBS campaigns as if nothing has changed from previous years. (Google search will turn up a few of them.) The either assume incorrectly that Amex will give them a pass again like in previous years, or they know something we don't know. My hunch is they are either clueless or assuming that Amex will issue the credits like in previous years. But I guess they're going to have lots of cleanup to do with their donors if things don't work out that way.