Maldives Chabad Raffle

[CountValentine]

The "house" makes money in almost all gambling... Either through the odds or they take a cut of the pot.

I have been in many raffles where they take nothing. The bar does it for the business.

[EJB]

Chances? You mean like 99 out of 100? 

That would be probability

[EJB]

I’m assuming standard hotel availability means even in peak season when str Maldives charged 980k or so points....

Is this accurate?

[EJB]

I mean if I buy 1 ticket at $65, the EV would need to be $45,500 assuming 700 sold, before factoring in taxes. Strictly talking about cash values, it's possible to be close. If you buy 3 @ 180, it goes down to 42k.

So you’re considering the F ticket value as 20k and the hotel value at 2k a night??? That’s not how it works. No way the value is anywhere near 40k...

[shaulyaakov]

So you’re considering the F ticket value as 20k and the hotel value at 2k a night??? That’s not how it works. No way the value is anywhere near 40k...

Why? That's how Dan judges he's c/p redemption values.

[CountValentine]

Why? That's how Dan judges he's c/p redemption values.

ROFL

[EJB]

ROFL

I can't tell if he's serious or kidding. I'm hoping the latter. Or that he doesnt handle his family's finances.

[shaulyaakov]

I can't tell if he's serious or kidding. I'm hoping the latter. Or that he doesnt handle his family's finances.

Half and half. The ROI doesn't necessarily mean it has to be something you'd pay for. There are multiple ways to assess value. Meaning, if you had a choice in this raffle, do you v take the MSRP in the form of a prize or 20 cents per dollar of MSRP but cash.

To sharpen, and illiquid asset has multiple ways to potentially value. Given that the prize is by nature aspirational, MSRP could make sense. If Chabad was focused on utility the the winner, they could just give cash.

[EJB]

Half and half. The ROI doesn't necessarily mean it has to be something you'd pay for. There are multiple ways to assess value. Meaning, if you had a choice in this raffle, do you v take the MSRP in the form of a prize or 20 cents per dollar of MSRP but cash.

How about take the cost that is being spent on the price? So, if for example the hotel costs a max of 880k MT points, and they have a market value of .5, that is $4400 (as opposed to $2000 x 5).

Similarly, for flights, if the flights can be bought for 150k AS x 4 and AS have a street value of 1.6, the flights have an apprx value of $9600.

Of course these are all rough, but my point is this is not worth anywhere near 40k. In antarctica, there was a true cost to the prize that was valuable even if you wouldnt pay that much for it. In this case, the actual cost of the prize is nowhere near full sticker since it is clear everything is being bought w points.

[shaulyaakov]

How about take the cost that is being spent on the price? So, if for example the hotel costs a max of 880k MT points, and they have a market value of .5, that is $4400 (as opposed to $2000 x 5).

Similarly, for flights, if the flights can be bought for 150k AS x 4 and AS have a street value of 1.6, the flights have an apprx value of $9600.

Of course these are all rough, but my point is this is not worth anywhere near 40k. In antarctica, there was a true cost to the prize that was valuable even if you wouldnt pay that much for it. In this case, the actual cost of the prize is nowhere near full sticker since it is clear everything is being bought w points.

If he really means "standard" awards for the flights, those rates could be astronomical.

[EJB]

If he really means "standard" awards for the flights, those rates could be astronomical.

Given the variability of those costs and the desire for the charity to know apprx costs in advance, I highly doubt they will be paying 2m points pp * 4 for flights for EY F last seat. At .01, that would cost them 80k, and they clearly aren't throwing a raffle to lose money even if all tickets are sold.

[shaulyaakov]

Given the variability of those costs and the desire for the charity to know apprx costs in advance, I highly doubt they will be paying 2m points pp * 4 for flights for EY F last seat. At .01, that would cost them 80k, and they clearly aren't throwing a raffle to lose money even if all tickets are sold.

Or the points are donated and they'd rather monetize this way than sell them. Going based on the stated t & c until proven otherwise.

[EJB]

Or the points are donated and they'd rather monetize this way than sell them. Going based on the stated t & c until proven otherwise.

And I'll go based on what is reasonable . And regardless, Etihad doesn't have the concept of a "Standard" award. On what basis do you say "Standard" means "OpenSeat?" Where in the "T&C" does it say it will pay for "OpenSeat" awards.

[shaulyaakov]

And I'll go based on what is reasonable . And regardless, Etihad doesn't have the concept of a "Standard" award. On what basis do you say "Standard" means "OpenSeat?" Where in the "T&C" does it say it will pay for "OpenSeat" awards.

In hachi Nami. Someone specifically asked about saver online and a reply conceivably from the organozer repeated standard.

I'd also say that if points are viewed as fungible currency, there's no concept of c/p as the max value you can get from a point is the marginal cost of that point.

[EJB]

In hachi Nami. Someone specifically asked about saver online and a reply conceivably from the organozer repeated standard.

I'd also say that if points are viewed as fungible currency, there's no concept of c/p as the max value you can get from a point is the marginal cost of that point.

My point is simple. If revenue is expected to be $40k from a raffle, you can expect the value of the prize to be much less. More like $20k. Otherwise organizer would not do a raffle. So unless you buy tickets at better than half the price of everyone else, do not expect to have a positive ROI.

[mmgfarb]

And I'll go based on what is reasonable . And regardless, Etihad doesn't have the concept of a "Standard" award. On what basis do you say "Standard" means "OpenSeat?" Where in the "T&C" does it say it will pay for "OpenSeat" awards.

They didn't say they were going to fly you there on EY, they just said "F". Regardless, I really hope they have a competent TA working with them.

[EJB]

They didn't say they were going to fly you there on EY, they just said "F". Regardless, I really hope they have a competent TA working with them.

That's my point. Don't expect to arbitrage this to make an expected profit from the prize. The prize will be nice and inspirational, but not something that costs 60k

[EJB]

In hachi Nami. Someone specifically asked about saver online and a reply conceivably from the organozer repeated standard.

I'd also say that if points are viewed as fungible currency, there's no concept of c/p as the max value you can get from a point is the marginal cost of that point.

Again, don’t think they’re gonna pay for last seat award. Doesn’t make sense.

[EJB]

Or the points are donated and they'd rather monetize this way than sell them. Going based on the stated t & c until proven otherwise.

Even if donated they still will want to use the raffle to make money.

[AussieMan]

I don't like buying a ticket in a raffle knowing that those who can afford more tickets have cheaper.