Here is my 2 cents just cause I'm bored and I really should stop fighting with Persians on Twitter (maybe they'll hack me next). It's mostly rambling though....
I think
@BP16 is spot on. I think that despite the media portraying Trump to be a warmonger he's been very cautious about ratcheting up the violence. But since he has a reputation for being unhinged Iran is also pretty nervous about how far they can go before all hell breaks loose. To
@Dan point there is clearly no war yet and it looks like smarter heads in Iran might not want a war.
But there is also the chance that hot heads in Iran like those in the Quds (Jerusalem / Holy) force trying to start the Shiite (twelver) version of Armageddon. I think that's why taking out Soleimani was so important. Aside from what was very likely a threat to American troops (how imminent is yet tbd) it's pretty clear that for the past decade plus he's been at the helm moving all sort of pieces in place for an Armageddon push to topple the zionist regime so to speak.
I really don't like describing secular things biblically but with Iran it really seems there is a biblical aspect to what they do. I know very little about Islam and even less about Shia but it seems they have messianic beliefs (Mahdi) very similar to Judaism. And just like there's a bunch of evangelicals down in Texas that support Israel out of some sort of religious drive it seems the same is true with some Shi'ites in Iran. I bring this up because there are plenty of curveballs that could be thrown right now from various militia groups to nasrallah to some quds generals looking to set a name (or bring along the Mahdi). So I would not rule out a hot direct conflict with Iran. They have a tendency to blow up Israeli embassies (or tour buses) which can suck everyone back in pretty quickly.
I do think there will be a pause right now (from Iran not necessarily militias) if for no other reason than the downing of the Ukrainian jet. Cooler heads in Iran need to figure out a way to blame this on someone fast or risk losing whatever international support they have left. I hope the pause lasts a while. (I kind of feel bad for the soldier that shot the missile thinking he was a hero for downing an American aircraft and he and his family might likely have already been executed soviet style???)
For the longest time I've considered someone like Zarif in Iran to be a lying snake I also think that he's a moderate force who might actually be needed by the US if we were to try another regime change. I think Zarif and many others might actually be relieved that Soleimani is gone in a KGB sort of way where you can't express relief for fear of reprisal but boy do you feel it. He likely has eyes on Rouhani's seat which should be available to him next year. If someone like Biden wins the election next year and assuming we're not in a full out war I can see Zarif and Biden being in a position to redraw a nuclear agreement (which would likely be the same mess as under Obama but maybe not).
But Trump is a wild card and I think that regardless of what the media is saying, this is really helping him out politically. Also, North Korea never gave their "christmas present" which makes me think they're pretty nervous and want to finalize something too. If he gets some sort of real treaty out of North Korea I don't see how he could possibly lose the election.
So to end my rambling I really hope there won't be a war but I think it's way to early to write it off. If this becomes protracted I see this also helping get Trump reelected but if that's the case then I think the next Iranian president will tilt more Ahmadinejad and less Rouhani which could make this conflict get really really hot.
