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« Last edited by username on June 19, 2020, 10:39:33 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 149385 times)

Offline Yonah

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #211 on: February 27, 2020, 03:24:39 PM »

The likelihood of catching it while next to someone who has it isn't small but the likelihood of catching it on any single flight is most definitely TEENY! 

You are saying the risk on any single flight is TEENY as if that is a fact, but the risk may in fact be huge. We can't assess risk until we know how widespread the virus is and it takes time to find out. Are you traveling to a place that implemented extensive testing before a breakout, and has the proper protocols in place? Well, there isn't a single country that started testing potential cases before their breakouts. Italy, South Korea, Iran, and other countries are starting to find out now how many people were infected the last couple weeks. You don't think that any flight in those countries was pretty risky a week before they started confirming cases en masse?

Who is the next Italy - do you know? It can be Germany, Spain, Brazil, Canada, France, and heck maybe even the US.

Offline Yonah

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #212 on: February 27, 2020, 03:29:24 PM »
Two more interesting links from Israel:

The Ministry of Health setup a quarantine registration site: https://govextra.gov.il/ministry-of-health/corona/corona-virus-en/

According to this catch-all update from the Times Of Israel - https://www.timesofisrael.com/el-al-suspends-flights-to-italy-thailand-over-1700-israelis-quarantined/, the Ministry of Health doesn't want you to come to the hospital if you came in contact or had symptoms. It wants you to call MDA, and have them come to check you out and determine what needs to happen.

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #213 on: February 27, 2020, 03:38:56 PM »
The disruption due to potentially being quarantined is much more statistically signifant than actually getting COVID-19.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #214 on: February 27, 2020, 03:43:13 PM »
You are saying the risk on any single flight is TEENY as if that is a fact, but the risk may in fact be huge. We can't assess risk until we know how widespread the virus is and it takes time to find out. Are you traveling to a place that implemented extensive testing before a breakout, and has the proper protocols in place? Well, there isn't a single country that started testing potential cases before their breakouts. Italy, South Korea, Iran, and other countries are starting to find out now how many people were infected the last couple weeks. You don't think that any flight in those countries was pretty risky a week before they started confirming cases en masse?

Who is the next Italy - do you know? It can be Germany, Spain, Brazil, Canada, France, and heck maybe even the US.

This is besides that in the closed cramped quarters of the plane it may be more likely to spread.
Just because things turned out a certain way doesn't mean you were right.

Offline Denverite

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #215 on: February 27, 2020, 04:59:41 PM »
You are saying the risk on any single flight is TEENY as if that is a fact, but the risk may in fact be huge. We can't assess risk until we know how widespread the virus is and it takes time to find out. Are you traveling to a place that implemented extensive testing before a breakout, and has the proper protocols in place? Well, there isn't a single country that started testing potential cases before their breakouts. Italy, South Korea, Iran, and other countries are starting to find out now how many people were infected the last couple weeks. You don't think that any flight in those countries was pretty risky a week before they started confirming cases en masse?

Who is the next Italy - do you know? It can be Germany, Spain, Brazil, Canada, France, and heck maybe even the US.

Again, you are mistaking statistical overall risk with incidental risk.  Obviously, I can't know what your risk on one particular flight is but we can estimate the risk of taking one flight among thousands in a world of 7 billion people that even if they are undereported has maybe a couple hundred thousand cases.  I'm trying to focus on the thought processes that cause hysteria.  I also don't know when or where the next lightning strike will be but I do know my overall risk of getting struck is pretty low.  But hey lots of people waste millions on lotto tickets too so I know people overestimate their odds for the both the positive and negative!  :)

Two more interesting links from Israel:

The Ministry of Health setup a quarantine registration site: https://govextra.gov.il/ministry-of-health/corona/corona-virus-en/

According to this catch-all update from the Times Of Israel - https://www.timesofisrael.com/el-al-suspends-flights-to-italy-thailand-over-1700-israelis-quarantined/, the Ministry of Health doesn't want you to come to the hospital if you came in contact or had symptoms. It wants you to call MDA, and have them come to check you out and determine what needs to happen.

In this vein, my son's HS Yeshiva emailed us this morning that unless students are Israeli citizens they need to be aware that if they go to Italy or the Far East (I know he has classmates from Italy and Singapore and other boys may have been booked home via Alitalia) they won't be allowed back into Israel (and even if they are Israeli citizens they will need to be quarantined and the dorm is not an allowable place to do so) and they wanted to make sure all the boys understand and make appropriate plans for Pesach while the dorm is closed if they now can't go home.  :-[   Right now my son is booked to fly home through LHR and back through CDG and I'm just hoping they stay off the government's banned area through Pesach or if they don't that BA & AA would be nice about rerouting them...

Offline NTorch

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #216 on: February 27, 2020, 05:58:27 PM »
From the Jerusalem Post - "Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

Offline ltttc

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #217 on: February 27, 2020, 06:45:29 PM »
Best Chinese themed Mishloach Manos for this year: Corona Beer  ;D

Offline zagguru

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus
« Reply #218 on: February 27, 2020, 07:27:30 PM »
You are correct. I missed that. Most people call me just before they leave, so they aren't really interested in that kind of coverage, and definitely won't pay for it.

If anyone knows how I can sign up for this plan, please PM me

Offline whYME

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #219 on: February 27, 2020, 07:51:47 PM »
From the Jerusalem Post - "Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101
so basically they're saying that...  more people will start dying now?
 

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #220 on: February 27, 2020, 08:16:54 PM »
From the Jerusalem Post - "Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101
What’s BDS gonna do?

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #221 on: February 27, 2020, 08:18:58 PM »
This is besides that in the closed cramped quarters of the plane it may be more likely to spread.

Exactly

Again, you are mistaking statistical overall risk with incidental risk.  Obviously, I can't know what your risk on one particular flight is but we can estimate the risk of taking one flight among thousands in a world of 7 billion people that even if they are undereported has maybe a couple hundred thousand cases.  I'm trying to focus on the thought processes that cause hysteria.  I also don't know when or where the next lightning strike will be but I do know my overall risk of getting struck is pretty low.  But hey lots of people waste millions on lotto tickets too so I know people overestimate their odds for the both the positive and negative!  :)

TLDR, I don't think you understand risk. Bottom line COVID-19 is a pandemic, traveling during a pandemic is risky and it will get increasingly risky until it peaks. There are literally cases in almost every country, and you don't need an entire infected flight to get infected. It can be a single passenger or more likely, a single FA that becomes a super spreader.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #222 on: February 27, 2020, 11:11:58 PM »

Online yuneeq

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #223 on: February 28, 2020, 08:24:43 AM »

Online yuneeq

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #224 on: February 28, 2020, 08:29:14 AM »
Another 2 deaths reported from the giant petri dish known as the Diamond Princess, raising the total to 6 deaths/705 confirmed cases/34 serious/10 recoveries. This massive real-life lab experiment should shed a lot of insight in the next month or so as to how deadly COVID really is, though the numbers need to be analyzed by each demographic group. So far it ain't looking good :(