COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[aygart]

Personally my BP has never been better.

How about someone nearing retirement who just saw their nest egg being VEY vpolatile?

[AsherO]

How about someone nearing retirement who just saw their nest egg being VEY vpolatile?

Sounds really scary, I was only speaking for myself and saying it goes both ways.

Hindsight is 20/20, but people nearing retirement should have their asset allocation set up so a recession doesn’t wipe them out.

[aygart]

Sounds really scary, I was only speaking for myself and saying it goes both ways.

Hindsight is 20/20, but people nearing retirement should have their asset allocation set up so a recession doesn’t wipe them out.

Yes, they always should. Nearing retirement is a wide range though.

[AsherO]

Yes, they always should. Nearing retirement is a wide range though.

And as you get closer to retirement you revisit allocation every 5-10 years.

[aygart]

And as you get closer to retirement you revisit allocation every 5-10 years.

It should be more frequent than that, but what would be the effect on someone just about to move money into fixed income? Those fixed income investments are now yielding much less as well! This means that bonds are priced high. So now he is looking at moving money from an asset which just cracshed into one which is priced high. Not very geshmak.

[CountValentine]

It should be more frequent than that, but what would be the effect on someone just about to move money into fixed income? Those fixed income investments are now yielding much less as well! This means that bonds are priced high. So now he is looking at moving money from an asset which just cracshed into one which is priced high. Not very geshmak.

Shiny yellow stuff. 

[aygart]

Shiny yellow stuff. 

Also high now.

[CountValentine]

Also high now.

Not sure many would agree with you.

[S209]

So the only other explanation for these deaths is Covid19?
And lets assume for the sake of argument that all 46 thousand died from this virus, how much does that change the absolute case fatality rate, did you also account for the millions of people who aren't included in the denominator?
And what are you proposing, what is a "solid treatment protocol"?

I’m pretty sure you don’t know what case fatality rate means, as I was trying to point out in another thread

[aygart]

Not sure many would agree with you.

Facts are that it is high compared to where it has been any time in the last 5 years. Anyhting higher is VERY speculative.

[CountValentine]

Facts are that it is high compared to where it has been any time in the last 5 years. Anyhting higher is VERY speculative.

Facts are that it is not high compared to where it has been at certain times in the last 10 years.
Don't you just love facts?

[S209]

So the only other explanation for these deaths is Covid19?
And lets assume for the sake of argument that all 46 thousand died from this virus, how much does that change the absolute case fatality rate, did you also account for the millions of people who aren't included in the denominator?
And what are you proposing, what is a "solid treatment protocol"?

Ok, I’ll stop being passive aggressive.

CFR means total recorded deaths over total recorded cases
IFR means total recorded deaths over actual total of cases

People who make the case that this is .5-.8 (not necessarily accurate) vs. the flu which is .1 are being completely disingenuous by using the CFR for the flu and the IFR for COVID.

The flu has a CFR of about .1. That means flu deaths over RECORDED flu cases. Estimates are all over the place about the true IFR for flu, but most assume between a quarter and half of cases are tested/recorded. That would place it as somewhere between .025 and .05. That would mean the true IFR of COVID (assuming only .5) would be between 10 and 20 times that of the flu!!

That’s aside for being fallacious because this is far more contagious than flu (even more according to your numbers, because you’re purporting there are far more cases) and thus far more deadly. You said for argument’s sake let’s say all 46,000 people died of the virus- then guess what? Even if NYC was 100% infected (ludicrous) we’ve already far surpassed the flu’s IFR (by a factor of up to 5!).

All you need to do is use anecdotal evidence to see this is NOTHING like the flu, nor anything we’ve ever seen in modern history. I shouldn’t need to show you with statistics.

[Lurker]

So the only other explanation for these deaths is Covid19?
And lets assume for the sake of argument that all 46 thousand died from this virus, how much does that change the absolute case fatality rate, did you also account for the millions of people who aren't included in the denominator?
And what are you proposing, what is a "solid treatment protocol"?

It doesn't claim that they died of Covid, but because of Covid. There are a multitude of factors that go into this, which have been rehashed 1000 times already. The point is, if you create more Covid cases, those correlating deaths will very likely rise as well. If EMS response time is slowed due to a glut of Covid transports, people may die from other causes without actually raising the official fatality rate of the virus. Even if the hospital capacity doesn't get maxed out, the influx of high maintenance patients may cause a trickle down decline in care for all patients. Covid patients themselves also become more likely to die, for those same reasons.

I think that making decisions based off of official Covid mortality rates is the biggest fallacy right now. Those numbers change based on a myriad of different circumstances, not the least of which include accurate testing and accurate reporting. I'm looking at actual deaths under current restrictions, and making the assumption that those numbers will be greater if restrictions are lifted. To my knowledge, no one disputes that assumption. My question was, based on the numbers quoted in that article, taking into account the overall death rates in the world in 2020 so far, what is the argument for lifting restrictions right now?

Regarding solid treatment protocol, I mean a protocol similar to almost any other disease we have in our country. Treatments aren't always 100% effective, but there is a protocol in place that is known to be highly effective for the vast majority of the illnesses we experience. You have a cold? There's medication for that. Flu? Same deal. Even cancer, there are treatment protocols with a decent amount of confidence of it's success rate. That doesn't mean there's a cure, but there's a foundation for treatment. So far with Covid, we're taking random shots at a target we haven't identified yet.

[S209]

It doesn't claim that they died of Covid, but because of Covid. There are a multitude of factors that go into this, which have been rehashed 1000 times already. The point is, if you create more Covid cases, those correlating deaths will very likely rise as well. If EMS response time is slowed due to a glut of Covid transports, people may die from other causes without actually raising the official fatality rate of the virus. Even if the hospital capacity doesn't get maxed out, the influx of high maintenance patients may cause a trickle down decline in care for all patients. Covid patients themselves also become more likely to die, for those same reasons.

I think that making decisions based off of official Covid mortality rates is the biggest fallacy right now. Those numbers change based on a myriad of different circumstances, not the least of which include accurate testing and accurate reporting. I'm looking at actual deaths under current restrictions, and making the assumption that those numbers will be greater if restrictions are lifted. To my knowledge, no one disputes that assumption. My question was, based on the numbers quoted in that article, taking into account the overall death rates in the world in 2020 so far, what is the argument for lifting restrictions right now?

Regarding solid treatment protocol, I mean a protocol similar to almost any other disease we have in our country. Treatments aren't always 100% effective, but there is a protocol in place that is known to be highly effective for the vast majority of the illnesses we experience. You have a cold? There's medication for that. Flu? Same deal. Even cancer, there are treatment protocols with a decent amount of confidence of it's success rate. So far with Covid, we're taking random shots at a target we haven't identified yet.

His answer will be they died of quarantine induced stress

[Lurker]

His answer will be they died of quarantine induced stress

Yea, we've been here before... and I'll counter (again) that it's negated by pandemic induced stressed. Don't know about y'all, but people dropping like flies around me is kinda stress inducing. And before someone says depression, same deal. Also goes for addiction issues and anything else you want to blame on quarantine.

[aygart]

Facts are that it is not high compared to where it has been at certain times in the last 10 years.
Don't you just love facts?

Yup I love em. It is within 10% of the brief peak within the last ten years (in 2011). Anyone who bought during that one month is still sitting on a loss.

[ckmk47]

In many frum areas, most of our young people have had Covid.  People under 40 years old, without health issues who are not obese, have a statistically small chance of dying of covid.   So it's time to let them out of jail. Let them restart school - with teachers under 40 years old - and let them pass it around among themselves.  This will start us on a path toward herd immunity.
BUT:  Those who are older, and those with any medical condition, MUST continue to quarantine!


PSA: the second wave of newly infected covid patients has started.  Hatzolo has seen an uptick in calls for covid.  We're all getting tired of this quarantine.  But those at risk must continue to be vigilant!

[aygart]

In many frum areas, most of our young people have had Covid.  People under 40 years old, without health issues who are not obese, have a statistically small chance of dying of covid.   So it's time to let them out of jail. Let them restart school - with teachers under 40 years old - and let them pass it around among themselves.  This will start us on a path toward herd immunity.
BUT:  Those who are older, and those with any medical condition, MUST continue to quarantine!


PSA: the second wave of newly infected covid patients has started.  Hatzolo has seen an uptick in calls for covid.  We're all getting tired of this quarantine.  But those at risk must continue to be vigilant!

What about children whose parents are above 40

[CountValentine]

What about children whose parents are above 40

Pretend they are immigrants and separate them. 

[S209]

In many frum areas, most of our young people have had Covid.  People under 40 years old, without health issues who are not obese, have a statistically small chance of dying of covid.   So it's time to let them out of jail. Let them restart school - with teachers under 40 years old - and let them pass it around among themselves.  This will start us on a path toward herd immunity.
BUT:  Those who are older, and those with any medical condition, MUST continue to quarantine!

If you do this, there will be deaths. Deaths of the “statistically insignificant under 40s”, deaths of the slightly older parents of young children, deaths of the elderly who are cared for by aides and children. How many frum deaths will you take on your shoulders? I’d be hesitant to make such a bold statement.

PSA: the second wave of newly infected covid patients has started.  Hatzolo has seen an uptick in calls for covid.  We're all getting tired of this quarantine.  But those at risk must continue to be vigilant!

Is this true? Can you post a source?